16/08/2017 Weather for the Week Ahead


16/08/2017

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Hello, there. Well, could an Atlantic hurricane

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be the saviour of what's left of summer here in the UK?

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All will be revealed very shortly -

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but first let's deal with what's happening out there

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for the rest of the week,

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because, at least on Wednesday,

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it's a bit of an east-west split.

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Eastern areas under a ridge of high pressure,

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it's been a bit of a chilly start today,

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and out towards the west,

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an area of low pressure dominant,

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these weather fronts gradually pushing their way in.

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Now, it's going to be a slow and fairly erratic process,

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and that does mean some will get away

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through much of the day dry,

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but Northern Ireland, rain on and off from breakfast,

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rain spreading across central and western Scotland

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through the afternoon, and, into western parts of Wales,

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south-west England

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and maybe the north-west of England.

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But really, much of Wales, England,

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eastern Scotland, Wednesday will stay dry,

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increasing amounts of cloud,

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but, in any hazy sunshine

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should feel pleasant enough.

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Temperatures into the low 20s.

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That weather front gets a bit more oomph on it

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as we go through Wednesday night

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into Thursday morning,

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though still fairly erratic.

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Some not seeing much rain, but where it does rain,

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there could be some heavier bursts.

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Couldn't rule out the odd rumble of thunder, too,

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and that rain lingering into the morning

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across some eastern parts of England -

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but note the temperatures -

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not quite as chilly as they started Wednesday.

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Early risers, and maybe through the morning rush hour,

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still some rain.

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Maybe slow to clear eastern counties of England, but it will do,

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and then it's back to a state

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of really what we saw on Tuesday.

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Low pressure away to the north-west,

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bit of a breeze, in fact,

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probably breezier than we saw on Tuesday.

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A few showers dotted around,

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mainly west of Scotland, Northern Ireland,

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north-west England, isolated ones elsewhere,

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with most spending the bulk of the day dry,

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and very pleasant in the sunshine.

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Temperatures could get into the mid-20s,

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but it turns cooler from there on.

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Low pressure to the north of us,

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and, running around that,

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the wind's coming from a slightly cooler source.

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We'll see some lively bursts of rain

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pushing across the country through the night,

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and, into Friday, it's going to be a story of sunshine and showers -

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unlike Tuesday, unlike Thursday,

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it's going to be a case of you'll be luckier to avoid the showers.

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Those showers will be fairly widespread,

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some heavy, thundery,

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and a very gusty wind - and note the temperatures.

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Instead of mid-20s,

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many will be struggling to get out of the teens -

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and we continue with that flow of cooler north-west winds

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as we go into Saturday.

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Low pressure pulling away.

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Ridge of high pressure trying to build from the south-west,

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so it does mean, whilst we will see showers,

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particularly across Scotland

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and potentially across eastern parts of the country,

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it turns drier from the south-west.

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Showers become fewer in number through the day.

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Starting to feel more pleasant in the sunshine,

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but overall, temperatures a bit on the disappointing scale.

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And then, that hurricane.

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Well, we have to return to the here and now

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to explain what's going on.

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Here it is, blob of cloud, strengthening storm,

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for the time being staying offshore,

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but it weakens again

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as it runs across the colder waters,

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and notice, through the end of the week,

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it gets consumed into this wider area

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of low pressure. Now, within that,

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there'll still be some tropical air wrapped in,

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hence that means, where we do see the rain,

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it will be on the heavy side.

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Notice the ridge of high pressure

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just about holding on

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towards the south and the east.

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For the moment, OK, there's a bit of uncertainty,

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of course, with the exact timing,

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the exact positioning of rain.

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Looks like the northern half of the country most likely to see the rain.

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Pretty heavy on some of the hills,

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Cumbria, western Scotland, potentially, too.

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Some to the south could stay dry on Sunday

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and very pleasant -

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and that driving area of low pressure

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into the start of next week

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will drift its way northwards and eastwards.

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May allow a weather front just to push across suburban areas

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bringing a few splashes of rain,

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but, beyond that,

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it's now looking increasingly likely

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high pressure will build.

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Could Gert be the saviour of our summer?

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So, into the final week of August.

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There are increasing signs

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that not only it will turn dry

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but a bit sunnier and warmer,

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particularly in the south.

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The extent of that high-pressure system

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we'll have to keep a close eye on,

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but, of course, this is important,

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because by the end of next week,

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some of you will be looking into the start

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of a bank holiday weekend.

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