10/11/2017 Weather for the Week Ahead


10/11/2017

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Hello again. If you've been with me this week,

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you'll know we've had a fair amount of certainty

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and the forecast has worked out pretty well.

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It's the latter part of next week that has caused us

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a little bit of concern about exactly what's going to happen.

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We've got two scenarios for you tonight.

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We'll look at those in a second.

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In the shorter term, as I say, there is a deal of certainty,

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because at the moment we've had quite a bit of mild

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air across many parts, particularly in the south, but by the weekend

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it turns much, much colder from the north,

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and eventually that cold air gets into the south.

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Let's see how we get there. Friday starts off rather cloudy,

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bits of rain in the south. Once that's away pretty smartly,

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it's a day of sunny spells and showers for the most part,

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the bulk of those showers across northern and western parts,

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some running out of Liverpool Bay, getting into the north Midlands.

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Top temperature on the day not bad, 12, 13, 14 degrees.

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More cloud and rain getting into the far west to finish off the day.

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Into the weekend, sunshine and showers just about does it

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eventually, and it turns much, much colder. Let's see how we get there.

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I was mentioning that rain across Northern Ireland.

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That eventually becomes quite a player for the far

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south of Scotland, the greater part of England and Wales.

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This is relatively moist, mild air from the Tropics, in fact,

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so that's helping to keep the temperatures up in the south.

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Further north, you're in something a good deal fresher,

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the first signs of that colder air which is lurking with intent away

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towards the far north of Scotland and, indeed, all points north.

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So, let's get ourselves through Armistice Day, Saturday.

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Quite a bit of cloud still lurking across the southern counties

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in the first part of the day, and it eventually begins to break,

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save perhaps in the south-western quarter.

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Notice how those temperatures really diversify there,

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milder in the south and west, much cooler

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and fresher across northern and eastern parts at that stage.

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And then on into Remembrance Sunday is where we really open the doors.

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The mild air is knocked away into France

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and we end up with a mixture of sunny spells for many down the spine

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of the British Isles, the showers largely confined to the coast.

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And look at this, never better than about ten degrees or so.

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And it will be a chilly start to Monday as I take you

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out of Remembrance Sunday on into Monday.

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High pressure trying to dominate. It will do in the south,

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but these frontal systems knock it flat across the northern half of

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Britain, so some cloud and wind

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and rain for Scotland, Northern Ireland, maybe the far north

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of England, maybe the far north-west of Wales later on in the day.

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And once we've put that high pressure just that little bit

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further to the south, it really does open the door to relatively mild

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airs to come in from the Atlantic.

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But the price that we pay for that increase in temperature is

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the loss of sunshine, and there's the chance of rain across many

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parts of the British Isles as we get on through Tuesday.

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Tuesday into Wednesday, we've got

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this daisy chain of weather fronts back out into the Atlantic.

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The high pressure is trying to hold on.

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And it's what happens from here that is the matter of conjecture.

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Two scenarios - either that high stays away towards the south,

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allowing the low pressures, some of them quite deep,

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to get into the northern half of the British Isles to produce

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really quite wet and windy conditions, or the high pressure

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becomes much more of a player for much more of the British Isles

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and that forces the low pressure much, much closer to Iceland,

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giving us a more settled end to the forthcoming week.

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So there's a great deal of uncertainty.

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There will, however, I suspect, be more rain in the north of the

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British Isles and a more settled

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look to the conditions in the south. Bye-bye.

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