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Hello again. If you've been with me this week, | 0:00:02 | 0:00:04 | |
you'll know we've had a fair amount of certainty | 0:00:04 | 0:00:06 | |
and the forecast has worked out pretty well. | 0:00:06 | 0:00:08 | |
It's the latter part of next week that has caused us | 0:00:08 | 0:00:11 | |
a little bit of concern about exactly what's going to happen. | 0:00:11 | 0:00:14 | |
We've got two scenarios for you tonight. | 0:00:14 | 0:00:16 | |
We'll look at those in a second. | 0:00:16 | 0:00:18 | |
In the shorter term, as I say, there is a deal of certainty, | 0:00:18 | 0:00:21 | |
because at the moment we've had quite a bit of mild | 0:00:21 | 0:00:23 | |
air across many parts, particularly in the south, but by the weekend | 0:00:23 | 0:00:26 | |
it turns much, much colder from the north, | 0:00:26 | 0:00:29 | |
and eventually that cold air gets into the south. | 0:00:29 | 0:00:32 | |
Let's see how we get there. Friday starts off rather cloudy, | 0:00:32 | 0:00:34 | |
bits of rain in the south. Once that's away pretty smartly, | 0:00:34 | 0:00:37 | |
it's a day of sunny spells and showers for the most part, | 0:00:37 | 0:00:39 | |
the bulk of those showers across northern and western parts, | 0:00:39 | 0:00:42 | |
some running out of Liverpool Bay, getting into the north Midlands. | 0:00:42 | 0:00:45 | |
Top temperature on the day not bad, 12, 13, 14 degrees. | 0:00:45 | 0:00:49 | |
More cloud and rain getting into the far west to finish off the day. | 0:00:49 | 0:00:53 | |
Into the weekend, sunshine and showers just about does it | 0:00:53 | 0:00:55 | |
eventually, and it turns much, much colder. Let's see how we get there. | 0:00:55 | 0:00:59 | |
I was mentioning that rain across Northern Ireland. | 0:00:59 | 0:01:01 | |
That eventually becomes quite a player for the far | 0:01:01 | 0:01:03 | |
south of Scotland, the greater part of England and Wales. | 0:01:03 | 0:01:06 | |
This is relatively moist, mild air from the Tropics, in fact, | 0:01:06 | 0:01:09 | |
so that's helping to keep the temperatures up in the south. | 0:01:09 | 0:01:12 | |
Further north, you're in something a good deal fresher, | 0:01:12 | 0:01:15 | |
the first signs of that colder air which is lurking with intent away | 0:01:15 | 0:01:19 | |
towards the far north of Scotland and, indeed, all points north. | 0:01:19 | 0:01:24 | |
So, let's get ourselves through Armistice Day, Saturday. | 0:01:24 | 0:01:28 | |
Quite a bit of cloud still lurking across the southern counties | 0:01:28 | 0:01:30 | |
in the first part of the day, and it eventually begins to break, | 0:01:30 | 0:01:33 | |
save perhaps in the south-western quarter. | 0:01:33 | 0:01:36 | |
Notice how those temperatures really diversify there, | 0:01:36 | 0:01:39 | |
milder in the south and west, much cooler | 0:01:39 | 0:01:41 | |
and fresher across northern and eastern parts at that stage. | 0:01:41 | 0:01:45 | |
And then on into Remembrance Sunday is where we really open the doors. | 0:01:45 | 0:01:49 | |
The mild air is knocked away into France | 0:01:49 | 0:01:52 | |
and we end up with a mixture of sunny spells for many down the spine | 0:01:52 | 0:01:55 | |
of the British Isles, the showers largely confined to the coast. | 0:01:55 | 0:01:59 | |
And look at this, never better than about ten degrees or so. | 0:01:59 | 0:02:02 | |
And it will be a chilly start to Monday as I take you | 0:02:02 | 0:02:06 | |
out of Remembrance Sunday on into Monday. | 0:02:06 | 0:02:09 | |
High pressure trying to dominate. It will do in the south, | 0:02:09 | 0:02:11 | |
but these frontal systems knock it flat across the northern half of | 0:02:11 | 0:02:16 | |
Britain, so some cloud and wind | 0:02:16 | 0:02:17 | |
and rain for Scotland, Northern Ireland, maybe the far north | 0:02:17 | 0:02:20 | |
of England, maybe the far north-west of Wales later on in the day. | 0:02:20 | 0:02:23 | |
And once we've put that high pressure just that little bit | 0:02:23 | 0:02:27 | |
further to the south, it really does open the door to relatively mild | 0:02:27 | 0:02:31 | |
airs to come in from the Atlantic. | 0:02:31 | 0:02:33 | |
But the price that we pay for that increase in temperature is | 0:02:33 | 0:02:37 | |
the loss of sunshine, and there's the chance of rain across many | 0:02:37 | 0:02:40 | |
parts of the British Isles as we get on through Tuesday. | 0:02:40 | 0:02:44 | |
Tuesday into Wednesday, we've got | 0:02:44 | 0:02:46 | |
this daisy chain of weather fronts back out into the Atlantic. | 0:02:46 | 0:02:49 | |
The high pressure is trying to hold on. | 0:02:49 | 0:02:51 | |
And it's what happens from here that is the matter of conjecture. | 0:02:51 | 0:02:55 | |
Two scenarios - either that high stays away towards the south, | 0:02:55 | 0:03:00 | |
allowing the low pressures, some of them quite deep, | 0:03:00 | 0:03:02 | |
to get into the northern half of the British Isles to produce | 0:03:02 | 0:03:05 | |
really quite wet and windy conditions, or the high pressure | 0:03:05 | 0:03:09 | |
becomes much more of a player for much more of the British Isles | 0:03:09 | 0:03:12 | |
and that forces the low pressure much, much closer to Iceland, | 0:03:12 | 0:03:15 | |
giving us a more settled end to the forthcoming week. | 0:03:15 | 0:03:19 | |
So there's a great deal of uncertainty. | 0:03:19 | 0:03:21 | |
There will, however, I suspect, be more rain in the north of the | 0:03:21 | 0:03:24 | |
British Isles and a more settled | 0:03:24 | 0:03:25 | |
look to the conditions in the south. Bye-bye. | 0:03:25 | 0:03:28 |