19/01/2018 Weather for the Week Ahead

Hello. Weather is what the atmosphere throws at us

minute by minute, day by day. Climate is the average

of that over a long period of time. Interestingly,

both were making news headlines on Thursday.

Climate first. Several major weather organisations said that...

Now, El Nino is a natural warming influence on the world's

weather but it wasn't there in 2017, so even without it,

the year comfortably took its place in the top-three

hottest years on record around the world

and that's why climate was making news.

But of course, weather was making news as well on Thursday.

That stormy start to the day, more snow showers around too

but then look at this - this is something else that would

get us talking into next week, a change to milder weather

and for a time next week, I think, much milder weather for some of us,

with temperatures actually rising above average.

The reason for that change coming up.

But right now, we're very much still in that cold air

coming on this brisk north north-westerly flow

across the UK. More snow showers, in fact, more significant

snow piling up into the hills of Northern Ireland and Scotland,

but further accumulations to lower levels in places,

into the Pennines, too, at times during Friday.

A few wintry showers dotted about through other parts

of Wales and western England and, of course, it feels cold,

particularly in the wind and especially across the

northern half of the UK. But even where you stay largely fine across

some southern and eastern spots, it's still a chilly wind.

Those wintry showers continue on Friday night.

Then we look to the south and we see an area of wet weather affecting

Wales and southern England that could have a bit of sleet

or wet snow associated with it clearing away on Saturday

and actually, Saturday afternoon is much quieter.

Far fewer wintry showers affecting northern parts,

more of us dry, sunny, but still cold.

Icy start to the day and again possibly on Sunday.

But then this comes in on Sunday, the first onslaught,

if you like, of the attack of milder air.

It comes with wet weather spreading north-east into cold air.

So, some sleet and snow on the leading edge,

which could be quite heavy in places, so absolutely keep checking

the forecast if you've got travel plans on Sunday.

That pushes away, the milder air starts to take over

the UK. Another weather system, some uncertainly about the position,

looks like it will run through parts of England and Wales

as we go on through Monday. North of that it should stay fine,

notice temperatures continue to creep up at average, at least,

for the time of year. And milder still by Tuesday,

with a lot of fine weather around on Tuesday,

maybe just a weather system glancing the north-west parts

of Northern Ireland and Scotland, more of us in double figures.

And so again, that's the bigger change next week,

to something much milder and above average for some of us

for the time of year. And it's all down to a change

in the position of the jet stream. Right now,

much of the UK is on the cold side of the jet stream on this

north-westerly flow. But gradually going into next week,

the jet stream has a different plan. Ushering that milder air

from the south-west, it begins to pull its way northwards,

leaving much of the UK on the warmer, the milder side

of the jet stream. And that's the most significant change

in our weather next week.

It will still be unsettled but that change in the position

of the jet stream actually pushes most of the weather systems

towards north-western parts, parts of Northern Ireland

and Scotland in particular, predominantly in the form of rain.

Relatively dry towards the south-east of the UK after

Monday's rain and actually climatologically that's

closer to what we might expect for the UK

at this time of year. So maybe for a time next week,

weather and climate converge. Now the change to the milder

weather will have us talking, not sure it will make

too many news headlines, though.