05/03/2018 Weather for the Week Ahead


05/03/2018

Detailed weather forecast.


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Hello. The aftermath of the wintry weather

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still lingers across the British Isles,

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but the thaw is now in progress,

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and will extend further north as the days go by,

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many of us returning to average temperatures in the days ahead -

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but it will still stay unsettled,

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and there is still some snow in the forecast for Scotland.

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The reason for the change in type of our weather -

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instead of the high pressure and the Beast from the East,

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we now have a low pressure towards the south-west.

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Still pulling quite chilly air in on its northern flank,

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but that area is now being re-circulated around the low,

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pulled across warmer waters of the Atlantic, and modified,

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so, by the time it comes in to the south of the British Isles,

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it's just, oh, so much kinder.

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That cold nothing like what we had in the week just gone,

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and, in fact, as I said,

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the temperatures gradually getting close to average values.

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On Monday, though, the low will push some quite heavy rain

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into the south-west of England, Wales

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and eventually towards the Midlands.

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That could give some quite rapid thawing,

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and result in some flooding issues.

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Sunshine for many -

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still, though, some wintry showers across Scotland,

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but much milder here.

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5 degrees for Edinburgh.

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Then, overnight, Monday into Tuesday,

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we continue with our area of low pressure.

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Quite a flabby low -

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that means nothing too significant in the way of wind,

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and that could mean some mist and fog developing

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across the southern half of the British Isles.

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Meanwhile, it will push this front further north into Scotland,

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perhaps bringing some rain for Northern Ireland briefly on Tuesday,

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but, with a bit of intensity,

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we could again see some significant snow,

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particularly for the higher ground of Scotland.

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At lower levels,

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it should mostly be a case of rain -

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but, of course, rain landing on all of that snow,

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again, could cause an issue with the rapid melt.

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For Wednesday, quite a decent day for much of England and Wales,

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but there will be some showers developing in the forecast,

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and some of those could be pretty punchy.

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We could see some hail and thunder

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and, locally, some intense falls of rain.

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Finally, though, a breather in the weather for Scotland -

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rain to the north and west, but, for many, some spells of sunshine,

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and 7 degrees is our forecast high, there, for Edinburgh.

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Here we are looking at Wednesday into Thursday.

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Still that same area of low pressure -

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just cast your eye a bit further south, though.

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By Thursday, it looks like it could get something just developing

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on its tail end to the south,

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a weather front that could bring some heavier rain on Thursday

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into southernmost reaches of the British Isles.

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We could also see some showers across Northern Ireland

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and the north-west of England,

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and they could still be a little bit wintry.

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We still have that cold air close by,

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so it could, with a bit of intensity,

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turn those showers somewhat wintry.

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So, that's Thursday.

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Then, for Friday,

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it looks like the low will throw another front our way,

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with a risk of some snow across the higher ground of Wales

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and perhaps the Midlands -

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some heavy rain pushing in further south.

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By the time we get later on in the period, though,

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that's when our uncertainty starts to come into our forecast.

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It certainly looks like it will stay unsettled,

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but it's all down to the jet stream, and, later on in the week,

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it looks like we're going to get

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quite a big buckle in the jet stream.

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It looks like the axis of the jet stream, in fact,

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will push right the way across the British Isles,

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and, if it does that,

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it could actually feed some pretty mild air in to us from the south -

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but that, I'm afraid, is only one solution.

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That's possibly the more favoured one, of the two, at the moment,

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but we may just see that that dip in the jet stream

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isn't quite so extreme, so it may be that it's south-western Europe

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that benefits from the milder air later on next week.

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As I said, some uncertainty in that element of the forecast,

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so it will be worth staying tuned as we get closer to the time.

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Further ahead, though, the outlook relatively similar.

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Staying unsettled, more wind and rain to come,

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and still that risk of some snow for Scotland.

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Worth staying tuned.

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