08/09/2014 World News Today


08/09/2014

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This is BBC World News Today with me, Rajesh Mirchandani.

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It's getting too close to call, but could Scotland be

:00:33.:00:35.

Scottish voters will decide next week.

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Now one poll says a majority favour independence.

:00:38.:00:40.

And we'll see what happened when people in Quebec in Canada also

:00:41.:00:42.

thought their bid for independence was about to become a reality.

:00:43.:00:45.

Also coming up, Iraq's parliament votes on a new government,

:00:46.:00:48.

a critical step in the fight against Islamic State jihadists.

:00:49.:00:50.

And a new Royal baby is on the way here in Britain.

:00:51.:00:53.

Delight all round, but the Duchess of Cambridge is once more suffering

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It's early days, but we hope things settle down

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A referendum on whether Scotland should leave

:01:01.:01:24.

Now it's taken on new impetus because, for the first time,

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a poll has suggested that more Scots would vote for independence than

:01:29.:01:31.

The survey gave the pro-independence,

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The British pound has already fallen to a low against the US dollar. This

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report from Dundee. At campaign headquarters, they are

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on dawn to buy the value of the pound or shaky set prices. They say

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Dundee is yes city, so great has been the defection of Labour voters

:02:01.:02:06.

to the yes cause. What difference has the poll giving them a narrow

:02:07.:02:12.

lead made? Will it give yes voters pause, might there be a loss of

:02:13.:02:18.

nerve? To the contrary, I think as people start realising we can do

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this, people will find their nerve, people who perhaps before were a wee

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bit sitting on the fence, not convinced we will do it. Now they

:02:28.:02:32.

understand we can, they are finding their nerve. What will win it or

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lose it for the yes campaign is the ability to maximise the campaign in

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places like this, working-class Scotland where people's natural

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inclination in the past has been to vote Labour. To do that, they will

:02:45.:02:48.

have to reassure people that negative reaction in the

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international markets and the global economy will be short lived. The yes

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campaigners say it's Westminster that is stoking nervousness. The

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blame for any uncertainty has to lie with the UK government which refuses

:03:05.:03:07.

point blank to have sensible discussion with the Scottish

:03:08.:03:11.

government about a currency union and the kind of things that would

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help give reinsurance to those markets. Yesterday's a poll gave yes

:03:16.:03:21.

a 2-point lead, the first time they have surged ahead. An aggregate of

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recent polls suggest the pro union side's commanding lead has almost

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vanished. I think we are winning the argument. We will win this

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referendum next week because I think, as people approach polling

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day, they will see the stakes couldn't be higher. We don't have to

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break up the country to make Scotland a better, stronger country

:03:43.:03:47.

in which to live. They've reassured by that in the other Scotland, the

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Scotland that still feels British to its core? At Kelso in the Borders,

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some are dismayed that the no campaign's leads seems to have

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evaporated in a month. I am worried about what's going to happen if

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Scotland goes independent, what's going to happen to my pension, my

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health care? And also my family, who live here? A very worrying time.

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It's a huge decision, the biggest we will ever make. You can change the

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government from time to time, every five years if you wish, but this,

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this is for ever. But the momentum is with the yes campaign now, pro

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union leaders must hope that action on more powers for the Scottish

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parliament, however late in the day, will halt that.

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If you're watching in Canada, this all might sound familiar.

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The vote for independence in Scotland has piqued

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the interest of many people in the mostly French-speaking province

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of Quebec, because they held two referenda on sovereignty.

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Both time, voters chose to remain in Canada, but the last vote

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So does Quebec's experience offer any lessons for Scotland?

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The BBC's Nick Bryant has been to Quebec City to find out.

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A pageant through the streets of old Quebec city, retelling

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the story of the settlements of what was then called New France.

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The British conquest in the mid-18th-century meant Quebec

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The province has retained its Francophone character, even though

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Festival organiser Stefan Perrin exemplifies the separatist dilemma.

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He sees himself as a Quebecer first and a Canadian second.

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But like many Scottish voters, he fears the economic consequences

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Are we going to be still with the Canadian dollar?

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Are we still going to trade with our neighbours, Ontario?

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Is it going to be that easy to trade with the other Canadian provinces?

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How would the Americans consider us if we decided to separate, to split?

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Those were big concerns for a big part of the population.

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In their decades-long struggle, Quebec separatists have suffered

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Adding to the agony, they came within 1% of securing a

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The lesson from Quebec for Scotland is that independence is a multiphase

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affair, according to the politicians who advised the SNP.

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They just had a new parliament in 1997 and now they are already having

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To me, if it won't work this time, it might next time.

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From laws protecting the French language to control over

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immigration, Quebec has achieved a great deal of autonomy.

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But another lesson for Scotland - that's thought to have dampened

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Despite two separate referenda, despite the fact the last poll was

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almost 20 years ago, the question of independence hasn't really been

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In Canada, they even have a phrase to describe this long-protracted

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constitutional struggle - they call it the Neverendum Referendum.

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But for all the celebrations of Quebec's distinctive culture,

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there's no great appetite right now for a third referendum.

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Many feel that the history of this province has not yet reached

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Independence - that struggle may be more a part

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With me is Peter Kellner, president of YouGov, an international market

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research firm that measures of public opinion and consumer

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You have already corrected me on the plural of referendum being

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referendums, so thank you, but your organisation at the weekend put the

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yes campaign ahead 51-49 at the weekend, I'm undecided voters. What

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should we take away from that one snapshot of just over 1000 voters?

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Firstly, it's too close to call. A 2-point lead does not definitely

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show yes is in the lead, it's within the margin of error. However we have

:08:20.:08:23.

shown a progressive closing of the gap from a few weeks ago, and if we

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look into the innards of the poll, especially people we have questioned

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more than once, what is absolutely clear, a number of no voters are

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switching to yes, and a lock of the undecideds are making up their minds

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going much more to yes than to no. The move towards yes is real, recent

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and big. So more importantly there is a trend, why is there a trend

:08:50.:08:57.

towards yes in the latter stages? The reason is that the no campaign

:08:58.:09:02.

was built very much on the fear factor, that Scotland's economy and

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prosperity would be at risk. Those fears are subsiding. More and more

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people think London is bluffing. When a London government says

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Scotland couldn't keep the pound, which is what Alex Salmond says it

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wants... He has been leading the yes campaign. The argument over the

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pound is a thing that the no campaign has been hammering. That is

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right, London has been saying you are independent, sort out your own

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currency. Alex Salmond is saying, of course we are part of the pound and

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when push comes to shove, London will have to come to terms...

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Increasingly, people are agreeing with Alex Salmond. Secondly, the

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fear is that Scotland's economy will go down the tubes. Those fears are

:09:50.:09:58.

subsiding. A further factor, Alex Salmond, if you stay in the union,

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you are going to be subject to Tory policies, Tory laws coming from

:10:04.:10:07.

London, a Conservative led government. The biggest group moving

:10:08.:10:11.

across are Labour supporters. A month ago, only 18% of Labour voters

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in Scotland said they would vote yes. That has doubled in a month to

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35%. Alex Salmond is playing the Tory London card and winning a lot

:10:22.:10:27.

of Labour voters. The politics may lead to a result one way or another,

:10:28.:10:32.

but let's internationalise for a second. If the Spanish government is

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watching, they have a population in Catalonia that wants a referendum,

:10:38.:10:43.

maybe the QuebecoISwatching, what will people make of this if Scotland

:10:44.:10:51.

goes independent? -- the Quebecois. It is not the first time parts of

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countries have seceded, you had checkers wackier breaking up into

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the Czech Republic and Slovakia, but it would be the first time a stable

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economic country has spread out like this. -- you had checkers wackier

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breaking up. It is not civil war, economic upheaval, anything like

:11:13.:11:19.

that, this is a reasonably stable, healthy, civil society saying

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perhaps, narrowly in ten days' time, we choose to go our own way and

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cease to be part of the United Kingdom. I think people in

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Catalonia, Quebec, other places around the world are saying, if they

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can do it, perhaps we can too. It's a big deal, Peter. Thank you. Ten

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days to go, I imagine we will be having you back.

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In Baghdad, a vote has begun to form a new government for the country.

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It is considered to be a key step in the struggle against Islamic State.

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Iraq's parliament is reconvening to try to approve a new government.

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It's a critical step in the fight against Islamic State

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militants who are occupying parts of Iraq and Syria.

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On Sunday, the Arab League promised to do its part to stop

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The town of Duluiyah briefly fell to the Sunni-dominated Islamic State

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group for few days in July, but the Jabour tribesmen,

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who have aligned themselves with the Iraqi forces in the battle against

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Jim Muir is in Irbil. Where is Baghdad in putting together this

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elusive, inclusive government? It does seem to be happening. The

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session of Parliament began a short while ago. It got off to a rocky

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start, quite a lot of barracking from MPs. Quite a number stayed out

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in the corridors and didn't actually join proceedings going on inside.

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Some bad vibes there. A prime ministerial nominee is currently

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addressing parliament laying out the programme, and he will shortly

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introduce the ministers he has chosen to implement that and will

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ask for a vote of confidence in them. In his opening address, he

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talked about an administrative revolution, he talked about

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decentralisation, introducing balance within the Armed Forces,

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which is very important because the current Iraqi army is seen as a bit

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of a Shia militia, certainly a bit weak on the Sunni front. The whole

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idea of this new government is to bring everybody on board, that is

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what the Americans and others are looking for. We have yet to hear him

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confirm the names of his ministers, but we have been told pretty much

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what to expect. The Sunnis have got the defence Ministry, which they

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would be happy about because that should put them in charge of the

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army. The Shia have got the interior ministry. The man nominated there is

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a Shia militia organisation, closely tied to Iran, so that may raise some

:14:08.:14:12.

eyebrows. Otherwise, a lot of reshuffling. Well-known Foreign

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Minister will become a Deputy Prime Minister. The Foreign Ministry job

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that he has had for eight years, being the face of Iraq to the

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outside world, will go to Ibrahim Jeffrey, a Shia politician who was

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Prime Minister before the outgoing Nouri al-Maliki. We do expect this

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government to be voted on and presumably passed in the coming

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minutes. It might be a bit of a long night for you. Keep us updated.

:14:45.:14:46.

Thanks, Jim. Ukraine President Petro Poroshenko

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has said that pro-Russian rebels in Ukraine have released 1,200

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prisoners. He was speaking during a visit to

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the strategic south-eastern port city of Mariupol, the last city

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in Donetsk region still held by the Ukrainian government,

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which has come under shelling from The announcement follows Friday's

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ceasefire deal, which has been described

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by the head of the OSCE as shaky. Meanwhile the EU says it's imposing

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further sanctions on Russia because of its continued involvement

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in the crisis in Ukraine. Russia has responded by saying

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it may block some international Through all of this, it's the people

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in the region who continue to suffer.

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To the neighbours, who watched them grow up.

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The family want the story of Carolina, aged six, and her disabled

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Shellfire killed them both on the day the cease-fire was declared.

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She was taking care of them when they were killed.

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She cries, God, why have you taken them?

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Like Nikita and Carolina, they lived in places where land

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became something men were willing to kill for.

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Children faced death and displacement with their families,

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driven to makeshift camps like this old Soviet era holiday resort.

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The propaganda pictures of forgotten heroes yellowing

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The war has distorted life and disrupted normality.

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I want to go home, but there is no home to go to, she says.

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In the crowded bunk rooms, medical aid is being provided,

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including the help of psychologists for traumatised children.

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They have of course been traumatised by the conflicts, hearing shelling

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and bombs, fleeing their homes and not being in their normal

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environment. It has a huge impact on the psychology of those children.

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It is a serious situation for those displaced people.

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If the conflict continues, this will worsen, definitely.

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The cease-fire is supposed to end the random cruelty that destroys

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the lives of children like Nikita and Carolina.

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But for their parents, it is a truce empty of meaning.

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Now a look at some of the day's other news.

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The World Health Organisation says the ebola virus is spreading

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It's warning that many thousands of new cases may emerge there in the

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next three weeks and that measures to stop it spreading were not

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working. Liberia has recorded almost 1,100 deaths out

:17:59.:18:01.

Rescue workers are battling hard to reach villagers stranded

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in remote areas of Indian administered Kashmir after

:18:13.:18:14.

Six days of rain have caused floods and landslides and killed almost

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three in 20 people. That my 320 people.

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A five-year-old British boy whose parents took him from a hospital in

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Britain last month has arrived in the Czech Republic for radiotherapy

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Ashya King has been at the centre of an international legal wrangle.

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His parents were arrested and detained

:18:39.:18:39.

We're -- to Afghanistan now, and more instability looms there because

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one of the two presidential candidates, Abdullah Abdullah, has

:18:58.:19:02.

said he will reject the outcome of the second round of the disputed

:19:03.:19:05.

election. The results are expected this week. The election has been

:19:06.:19:08.

gridlocked for months. Both sides allege voter fraud.

:19:09.:19:14.

With the disputed Afghan election process now entering its

:19:15.:19:17.

one of the candidates, Abdullah Abdullah, has had enough.

:19:18.:19:22.

He said he would not accept the results of the audited vote

:19:23.:19:30.

as he believes it has not discovered fraud and despite

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a personal appeal from President Obama, he told me that talks for a

:19:33.:19:35.

government of national unity, backed by the US, are at a dead-end.

:19:36.:19:38.

The future Afghanistan, which will be a viable partner with

:19:39.:19:41.

the international community, to be able to deal with the challenges,

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the challenges that Afghanistan has faced or global peace has faced in

:19:49.:19:51.

this part of the world, could not be based on the foundation

:19:52.:19:54.

The announcement was made to a room packed with supporters.

:19:55.:20:11.

One prominent backer, a former head of the intelligence service,

:20:12.:20:14.

said the deal had foundered because

:20:15.:20:15.

A political settlement, ensuring equal partnership, should

:20:16.:20:19.

The timing of Dr Abdullah's announcement was highly charged,

:20:20.:20:24.

coming as Afghanistan prepares to commemorate the death of the former

:20:25.:20:36.

guerrilla leader killed in 2001,

:20:37.:20:37.

Dr Abdullah appealed to his followers not to protest

:20:38.:20:42.

violently, but his message that he would not recognise a government

:20:43.:20:45.

that may be about to come to our that does not include his people

:20:46.:20:48.

Dr Abdullah has appealed for peace, but at the same time,

:20:49.:20:52.

he has said that any negotiations are now over and that he won't

:20:53.:21:02.

accept a government led by his opponent.

:21:03.:21:03.

This feels like a very dangerous moment for Afghanistan.

:21:04.:21:11.

The Duke and Duchess of Cambridge have announced that they are

:21:12.:21:13.

The Duchess, who is still in the very early stages

:21:14.:21:17.

of pregnancy, is suffering once again from acute morning sickness.

:21:18.:21:20.

This time, she is being treated by doctors at Kensington Palace.

:21:21.:21:23.

The BBC's royal correspondent Nicholas Witchell reports.

:21:24.:21:28.

William was there at a long planned visit to Oxford

:21:29.:21:32.

today, but Catherine couldn't make it, and Kensington Palace realised

:21:33.:21:35.

that it would have to explain the reason for her unexpected absence.

:21:36.:21:38.

She was pregnant with the couple's second child, the Palace said,

:21:39.:21:41.

So William was asked, how was she feeling?

:21:42.:21:46.

It has been a tricky few days for a week or so.

:21:47.:21:52.

I'm hoping things can settle down and she will feel better.

:21:53.:21:59.

It's important we all focus on the big news,

:22:00.:22:02.

That is where my thoughts are at the moment.

:22:03.:22:09.

In December 2012, early in her pregnancy with George,

:22:10.:22:12.

doctors hospitalised the Duchess for a couple of days.

:22:13.:22:15.

On this occasion, with this pregnancy yet to reach the 12 week

:22:16.:22:18.

stage, it is hoped the sickness can be managed at home and that it

:22:19.:22:21.

George was a summer baby, born in July last year.

:22:22.:22:27.

The chances are that his younger brother or sister will be due in the

:22:28.:22:31.

He or she will automatically come fourth in line to the throne,

:22:32.:22:37.

fulfilling William and Catherine's obligation to ensure that

:22:38.:22:40.

The Queen, seen here at the Braemar Gathering near Balmoral at

:22:41.:22:57.

I think George will be over the moon.

:22:58.:23:01.

The family continues to grow. a younger brother or sister.

:23:02.:23:09.

News of the pregnancy is making headlines around the world.

:23:10.:23:18.

International fascination with Britain's royal family

:23:19.:23:24.

Hugo Vickers is a writer and broadcaster and he joins us from our

:23:25.:23:41.

studio in Reading. You have written extensively about the Royal Family.

:23:42.:23:46.

This is interesting, married couple expecting second baby. Why is that a

:23:47.:23:49.

story that has lit up headlines around the world and social media?

:23:50.:23:55.

Of course, it is a very happy story, and the monarchy has been doing for

:23:56.:23:58.

many generations. So anything to do with the monarchy always attract

:23:59.:24:04.

attention. But it is because the Cambridges themselves are such a

:24:05.:24:08.

popular figure. Wherever they go in the Commonwealth, they seem to make

:24:09.:24:14.

people feel happy. So we are all very much on their side and

:24:15.:24:18.

rejoicing alongside them that there is more good news on the way.

:24:19.:24:22.

Everyone seems to be getting in on the congratulations. I was looking

:24:23.:24:27.

at Twitter and apparently, the royal baby # has been used 50,000 times,

:24:28.:24:33.

the worst one from an international pizza chain that says

:24:34.:24:37.

congratulations. May we humbly suggest naming the royal baby Pizza?

:24:38.:24:42.

I will not name that chain! Everyone seems be getting in on the act. It

:24:43.:24:48.

is internationally big news. It is. At the time of the royal wedding,

:24:49.:24:52.

everybody got excited about Prince William. I know that royal weddings

:24:53.:24:56.

are a cause of great excitement, but I remember wondering at the time why

:24:57.:25:00.

this was so much the case with him. I think the real reason was that the

:25:01.:25:06.

world had probably last seen Prince William when he was a forlorn

:25:07.:25:09.

teenager following his mother's coffin, and he didn't go off the

:25:10.:25:13.

rails. He went through school and universe tea and met a nice girl

:25:14.:25:16.

with freedom of choice. They are clearly happy together and that is a

:25:17.:25:21.

great story. I think it has gone on like that. The arrival of Prince

:25:22.:25:25.

George was very much welcomed, and wherever Prince George has been

:25:26.:25:31.

taken, he is a huge success. Funny you should talk about that, because

:25:32.:25:35.

I remember at the time of the royal wedding, I interviewed the Queen of

:25:36.:25:38.

American journalism, Barbara Walters, who said that was the

:25:39.:25:42.

reason America were going crazy about the royal wedding, because

:25:43.:25:46.

everybody remembered the tragedy of Diana, and now they have something

:25:47.:25:48.

happy to talk about. We also saw in that report, Prince Harry was saying

:25:49.:25:53.

great, I am not going to be king. There is also an issue for this

:25:54.:25:58.

second baby. Prince George is the heir to the throne and now there is

:25:59.:26:02.

a spare as well, as they say. Yes, that is the traditional duty as your

:26:03.:26:09.

commentator said. They must keep the Protestant succession going. It may

:26:10.:26:11.

be that they will have another child after that. Of course, supposing

:26:12.:26:17.

they have a girl, she would automatically be after Prince

:26:18.:26:20.

George. If there was a younger brother, he would not overtake her

:26:21.:26:24.

the wake since Andrew and Prince Edward overtook Princess Anne. So

:26:25.:26:30.

that is a change. And Will this child be born as a prince or

:26:31.:26:34.

princess of the United Kingdom? Will Scotland be involved? We hope so.

:26:35.:26:38.

That is a whole new area of conversation. Sadly, we don't have

:26:39.:26:42.

time to get into that. Thanks for joining us. And thank you as well

:26:43.:26:50.

The weather is looking fine and settled for the next few days and

:26:51.:27:03.

for the week ahead, with high pressure in charge. Tomorrow could

:27:04.:27:06.

have a misty start of the day, but sunny spells are soon developing. We

:27:07.:27:10.

could start Tuesday morning on a chilly note, particularly from any

:27:11.:27:15.

rural areas, but that mist and fog soon clears away. We are looking at

:27:16.:27:19.

bright skies. Perhaps

:27:20.:27:20.

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