01/12/2015 Daily Politics


01/12/2015

Similar Content

Browse content similar to 01/12/2015. Check below for episodes and series from the same categories and more!

Transcript


LineFromTo

Afternoon folks and welcome to the Daily Politics.

:00:36.:00:38.

With enough MPs behind him, David Cameron calls a vote in the Commons

:00:39.:00:45.

Will RAF bombers be in action over Syria by the end of the week?

:00:46.:00:52.

Jeremy Corbyn ties himself and his party in knots over

:00:53.:00:56.

Labour's position on airstrikes - how badly damaged is his authority?

:00:57.:01:02.

And the Labour leader faces his first big electoral test

:01:03.:01:09.

on Thursday in the town that invented fish and chips.

:01:10.:01:11.

Will the party get battered in Oldham?

:01:12.:01:13.

David Cameron joins hundreds of world leaders in Paris to show

:01:14.:01:16.

off their green credentials - but after scrapping environmental

:01:17.:01:19.

All that in the next hour, and with us for the whole

:01:20.:01:30.

of the programme today, the Green Party MP, Caroline Lucas.

:01:31.:01:38.

So we've been bombing Islamic State in Iraq for months.

:01:39.:01:45.

By the end of the week, we are almost certain to be hitting

:01:46.:01:48.

Tomorrow, Prime Minister's Questions has been

:01:49.:01:53.

cancelled and MPs will spend all day debating the issue before voting.

:01:54.:01:56.

David Cameron said he would only call for such a vote

:01:57.:01:59.

That certainty was handed to the PM after a fractious Shadow Cabinet

:02:00.:02:05.

meeting in which Jeremy Corbyn decided to give his MPs

:02:06.:02:08.

a free vote - about 50 of them are expected to support the government.

:02:09.:02:11.

Here's what the Prime Minister had to say last night.

:02:12.:02:19.

I believe there's growing support across Parliament for a compelling

:02:20.:02:22.

case to answer the call from our allies to act

:02:23.:02:24.

The headquarters, in many ways, of the terrorists is in Syria,

:02:25.:02:32.

and it makes no sense to recognise this border in the action we take

:02:33.:02:36.

when Isil themselves don't recognise this border.

:02:37.:02:40.

It's the right thing to do, we will be acting with our allies,

:02:41.:02:45.

we will be careful and responsible as we do so,

:02:46.:02:47.

but in my view it's right to do this to help to keep our country safe.

:02:48.:02:52.

We're joined now by the Labour MP, Mary Creagh,

:02:53.:02:54.

Are you sure you know what you are doing? Absolutely. I have been very

:02:55.:03:11.

clear since visiting the Lebanon and saw the humanitarian tragedy in that

:03:12.:03:14.

country that we have a duty to act in the Middle East, and that the war

:03:15.:03:19.

in Syria has spilled into Turkey, the bombs in Ankara, Lebanon,

:03:20.:03:22.

Jordan, all of those countries on the front line of this humanitarian

:03:23.:03:26.

crisis, and carrying on with business as usual is not the answer.

:03:27.:03:33.

How does more bombings solve the humanitarian crisis, or even

:03:34.:03:37.

ameliorated? We have to look at it as one part of a full political and

:03:38.:03:43.

diplomatic framework. We know how the international serious support

:03:44.:03:47.

group meeting monthly. The next meeting is in Vienna. Iran, Saudi

:03:48.:03:52.

Arabia and Russia are engaged in a way they were nothing gauged in the

:03:53.:03:57.

failed Geneva peace process the last three years. Hope is those peace

:03:58.:04:02.

talks will lead to democratic elections and the ending of a sad's

:04:03.:04:05.

rain of terror against his own people. Why not let these peace

:04:06.:04:12.

takes take their course if you think they are so positive? Why get

:04:13.:04:17.

involved in the bombing in the interim? We are already involved in

:04:18.:04:21.

overflying for the coalition of 60 countries already engaged. We are

:04:22.:04:27.

engaged in Iraq and we are effectively stopping at the border,

:04:28.:04:30.

a border that Isil does not recognise. Their results or a moral

:04:31.:04:36.

imperative. We founded the United Nations. My party is an

:04:37.:04:41.

internationalist party. When the French and Americans are calling on

:04:42.:04:44.

us to hope them in their hour of need after that terrible attack in

:04:45.:04:49.

Paris and many other places, that we have a duty to listen to that. And

:04:50.:04:55.

of course the UN Security Council resolution, supported by countries

:04:56.:05:00.

as various as China, Venezuela, Angola and New Zealand, calls on

:05:01.:05:04.

most to use all necessary measures. There is a clear legal basis as

:05:05.:05:11.

well. Caroline Lucas, the UN has paved the way for action. And our

:05:12.:05:15.

major allies, including the French, would like us to join them. Why

:05:16.:05:21.

shouldn't we? I think at the minute we shouldn't. There hasn't been a

:05:22.:05:24.

big enough case made by the Prime Minister that are getting involved

:05:25.:05:27.

would either make Britain safer or indeed bring more likelihood of

:05:28.:05:32.

peace in the region. I think looking at the evidence given to the Foreign

:05:33.:05:35.

Affairs Select Committee it is really clear that all of the

:05:36.:05:37.

evidence they received was that if we get involved in this, it is

:05:38.:05:42.

actually going to feed the ice 's narrative, which they would love to

:05:43.:05:45.

be able to present them as the guardians of Islam against the

:05:46.:05:49.

Crusaders from the West. If we play into that, recruits will grow. That

:05:50.:05:52.

is already happening. Let's look at what is happening from the bombing

:05:53.:05:58.

so far. Were you against the bombing in Iraq? Just now? Yes, I was. So

:05:59.:06:06.

you don't think we should be involved militarily at all? I don't.

:06:07.:06:12.

If you look at the evidence of the bombing that has taken place so far

:06:13.:06:17.

over Iraq, then basically over the last year we have seen more

:06:18.:06:21.

recruits, double the number of recruits have gone to Isis since

:06:22.:06:25.

that bombing has started, because we feeding narrative. They have lost

:06:26.:06:31.

major ground as well. That is disputed. A lot of it is desert.

:06:32.:06:37.

They have also gained places like Palmira Silva Palmieri is in Syria.

:06:38.:06:45.

The US has been bombing Syria for a long time and it has not driven Isis

:06:46.:06:51.

back. It does risk the narrative that more recruits will come to

:06:52.:06:56.

Isis. By saying we do not want to drop bombs does not mean we don't

:06:57.:07:00.

want action. Of course we want action. We could be putting pressure

:07:01.:07:05.

on Turkey, for example, to seal the border, to stop the weapons and the

:07:06.:07:11.

oil sales feeding Isis. What does pressure mean? Looking at Saudi in

:07:12.:07:18.

particular, we could be looking at all kinds of financial measures. We

:07:19.:07:22.

have been happy enough to take them over Russia in the Ukraine and yet

:07:23.:07:27.

we are not taking those measures against Saudi Arabia. You want us to

:07:28.:07:30.

take financial sanctions against Saudi Arabia? That is something we

:07:31.:07:35.

should certainly consider, yes. Saudi Arabia is not clamping down on

:07:36.:07:40.

the families and others channelling finance to Isis. We always look at

:07:41.:07:43.

the military response as the fastest and easiest thing to do. We don't

:07:44.:07:48.

necessarily look at other ways that Isis is being fed. It is being fed

:07:49.:07:53.

by finance, weapons and the chaos of the Syrian Civil War. The Syrian

:07:54.:07:57.

economy has effectively collapsed into a wartime economy funded by

:07:58.:08:02.

arms funding -- arms smuggling and people smuggling and the distortion

:08:03.:08:10.

of the 60,000 disappeared people. We have effectively must got a failed

:08:11.:08:14.

state in Syria. Caroline Todd Sinnott sealing the border with

:08:15.:08:21.

Turkey. -- Caroline talks about. The last thing people in Turkey wants to

:08:22.:08:25.

see is the borders sealed. We have huge flows of people out of Syria.

:08:26.:08:31.

Over half of the population is displaced. 4 million people who have

:08:32.:08:35.

left, 6 million displaced. It is in a desperate state. As long as we

:08:36.:08:40.

leave Islamic State there, they now have 30,000 fighters from over 100

:08:41.:08:44.

different countries. If we are prepared to just allow them to

:08:45.:08:48.

continue to regroup and recruit in Raqqa, then we will never have peace

:08:49.:08:52.

in Iraq and we've never have peace in Syria. There were 15,000 recruits

:08:53.:08:58.

last year from 80 countries. The bombing has led to the increase in

:08:59.:09:05.

recruits. What you are doing here is actually encouraging more people to

:09:06.:09:09.

see this as a fight between the West and Islam. Therefore there are an

:09:10.:09:14.

increasing number of recruits going to that area. Shortly before more

:09:15.:09:18.

bombing, we should look at the effect the bombing has had so far.

:09:19.:09:23.

You posit the effect that the bombing has had this effect. I would

:09:24.:09:28.

argue the effect of having a failed state in Syria, the effect that they

:09:29.:09:32.

are the only people who seem to be standing up to Assad in his own

:09:33.:09:35.

country, means that in effect there were 200,000 free Syrian fighters

:09:36.:09:41.

two years ago. Now they are down to 70,000. There is a lot of fluidity

:09:42.:09:49.

in Syria. As long as Assad is there, Peter Luff co-opted into fighting

:09:50.:09:54.

for them. It is that propaganda as well. Where are these phantom 70,000

:09:55.:09:59.

ground troops who are going to support us? Everybody agrees that

:10:00.:10:05.

bombing on its own will not work. We need ground forces. David Cameron

:10:06.:10:08.

came to the Commons and claimed there were 70,000 ground forces who

:10:09.:10:12.

were not for a sad and were not extremist. That figure has been

:10:13.:10:16.

absolutely hammered by all of the experts. Robert Fisk yesterday

:10:17.:10:21.

called it a complete mockery to suggest those ground troops. This is

:10:22.:10:27.

why the peace process is so important. As the Free Syrian Army

:10:28.:10:32.

is murdered by a sad they will be fewer people able to protect their

:10:33.:10:36.

towns and able to stand up for him. -- Assad. We need a multinational

:10:37.:10:41.

peace framework for the people of Syria to take back their nation from

:10:42.:10:45.

The Jihadi Spot and the idea that we just let them get on with it... We

:10:46.:10:53.

found mass graves. They were marching in Baghdad earlier this

:10:54.:10:57.

year, Islamic State. Let me finish. You have had your say. The idea that

:10:58.:11:02.

somehow just allowing it all to continue... Nobody is talking about

:11:03.:11:07.

allowing it to continue. We have allowed it to continue for three

:11:08.:11:13.

years. They enslaved children as young as five into sexual slavery

:11:14.:11:16.

and they murder women of our age who are too old to be sold. Summoning

:11:17.:11:22.

people giving evidence to the furnace 's committee said that by

:11:23.:11:27.

getting involved in the bombing we reduce our capacity to play a big

:11:28.:11:31.

role in the diplomatic efforts. Many of those experts say Britain is well

:11:32.:11:35.

placed because we are not bombing Syria to play a real role in the

:11:36.:11:38.

peace talks. That would be undermined if we become part of it.

:11:39.:11:45.

But you don't know that. They don't know it either. It is just a piece

:11:46.:11:50.

of commentary. It is not the basis of policy. The foreigner 's

:11:51.:11:59.

committee assembled those experts. They came to the conclusion that the

:12:00.:12:03.

case had not been made for bombing. The chairman of that committee has

:12:04.:12:10.

changed his mind. You put this great faith in the peace process, both of

:12:11.:12:15.

you. The evidence is pretty slight for it. But at the same time you

:12:16.:12:24.

want to use the non-IS terrorist anti-Assad people. But any peace

:12:25.:12:27.

process will involve Assad and the Russians. I don't understand how you

:12:28.:12:34.

can keep the anti-Assad Freedom Fighters happy and still have to

:12:35.:12:37.

deal with Mr Assad and the Russians. They are on opposite sides. We have

:12:38.:12:44.

to give Syria backed its territorial integrity, which it no longer has.

:12:45.:12:49.

It is no longer a functioning state. The second thing is, we have defied

:12:50.:12:54.

the terrorist factory, The Jihadi Spot three, which is, we have defied

:12:55.:12:56.

the terrorist factory, The Jihadi Spot three, which eased in Syria has

:12:57.:13:00.

become. We foiled seven terror attacks in our own country this

:13:01.:13:10.

year. Let's make sure we don't make things worse. Nobody is denying Isis

:13:11.:13:15.

does terrible things. We need to move on. You have both had a good

:13:16.:13:23.

chance to air your eye humans. I'm no -- I know the viewers will be

:13:24.:13:26.

listening very carefully to both sides.

:13:27.:13:26.

So, Jeremy Corbyn's implacably opposed to extending air strikes to

:13:27.:13:29.

Syria, but he's failed to persuade many of his MPs, his Shadow Cabinet

:13:30.:13:32.

and even the Shadow Foreign Secretary that he's right.

:13:33.:13:35.

So yesterday he had to abandon plans to whip his MPs and offered them,

:13:36.:13:38.

It was less than a edifying spectacle.

:13:39.:13:42.

In a stormy Shadow Cabinet meeting, it was reported that Shadow Home

:13:43.:13:45.

Secretary Andy Burnham accused Mr Corbyn of trying to "throw MPs

:13:46.:13:48.

to the wolves", by trying to force them to vote against air strikes.

:13:49.:13:54.

According to reports afterwards, ministers described

:13:55.:13:57.

the situation as "embarrassing" and "disgraceful" and accused

:13:58.:14:00.

Then yesterday evening, the Labour leader had to face backbench MPs.

:14:01.:14:07.

There were attacks on the party's advisor on defence

:14:08.:14:16.

was said to have argued, "We cannot unite the party if the leader's

:14:17.:14:19.

So where does this leave Mr Corbyn's position?

:14:20.:14:24.

With me in the studio is Matt Wrack, the General Secretary of the

:14:25.:14:27.

Fire Brigades Union, who have just re-affiliated with Labour.

:14:28.:14:32.

Mr Wrack says the Labour party has "changed for the better since the

:14:33.:14:35.

election of Jeremy Corbyn", arguing he has given his members

:14:36.:14:38.

and supporters "hope that we can shift the political debate

:14:39.:14:41.

I assume you have joined, you want the union to be affiliated because

:14:42.:14:56.

you think Labour is much more left-wing under Mr Corbyn We think

:14:57.:15:00.

that there is an opportunity for politics addresses the issues

:15:01.:15:07.

affecting working people and trade unionist, we were affiliated from

:15:08.:15:11.

1926 to 2004. There has been a debate and Jeremy Corbyn has been a

:15:12.:15:16.

long time ally of our union, he has stood by us in difficult times, and

:15:17.:15:23.

stood up for trade union rights for public services, against authority

:15:24.:15:25.

and that resonates with a lots of our people. When you left Labour the

:15:26.:15:33.

Fire Brigades' Union developed link with far left groups The union

:15:34.:15:37.

didn't. But individuals did. Individuals still have the right to

:15:38.:15:40.

do whatever they want to do politically but the union has

:15:41.:15:44.

policies, it has only ever supported Labour candidates. But you must

:15:45.:15:49.

think now, or want to be part of the move, that the FBU wants to be part

:15:50.:15:55.

of a move to make the Labour Party stand for more things like the, like

:15:56.:15:59.

Tusk rather than the Labour Party under Mr Blair. As I said, the union

:16:00.:16:05.

has never taken a position on Tusk, it has its policies which reflect

:16:06.:16:09.

many of the policies of many trade unions against austerity for workers

:16:10.:16:13.

rights, standing up for public service workers and so on, so as an

:16:14.:16:17.

affiliate of the Labour Party we will be arguing for those policies

:16:18.:16:19.

within the structures of the Labour Party. That is what any affiliate

:16:20.:16:23.

would do. What policies of Mr Corbyn's don't you like? I think we

:16:24.:16:28.

are supportive of Mr Corbyn's policies is. That was my point. Yes.

:16:29.:16:33.

That you are. What do you say to the argument... The point is we are an

:16:34.:16:39.

independent organisation with our own policies and structures that

:16:40.:16:42.

will determine... I understand that. But what do you say to those who

:16:43.:16:49.

would point out every time your wing of the Labour Party takes control,

:16:50.:16:54.

or the Labour Party moves in this direction, you lose electionsome,

:16:55.:16:57.

does that matter? Of course it matters to win election, I think

:16:58.:17:04.

that the the experience in our view of the past decade, two decades is

:17:05.:17:11.

that many core Labour voters have been disenfranchised, feel

:17:12.:17:15.

disenfranchised and we would want to be part of a movement engages with

:17:16.:17:19.

traditional Labour voters and with the trade unions, there has been

:17:20.:17:22.

disquiet among trade unions for many years. But as you are probably to

:17:23.:17:28.

find out in the Oldham by-election those disheartened Labour voters are

:17:29.:17:32.

more likely to vote for Ukip than your brand of politics There needs

:17:33.:17:36.

to be a long-term strategy to engage with many of these people. Whatever

:17:37.:17:41.

wing of the Labour Party people are on nobody would dispute the need to

:17:42.:17:46.

edge gauge with the people. Are you happy a strong left-wing voice has

:17:47.:17:50.

come into the Labour Party? I am delighted the Fire Brigades' Union

:17:51.:17:55.

has rejoined the Labour Party. It struck me as an anomaly that they

:17:56.:17:59.

ever left, if you don't mind me saying. It is another strong voice

:18:00.:18:02.

that will take the party in a direction of which you do not

:18:03.:18:08.

approve of, broadly. Locally my Fire Service has suffered tremendous cuts

:18:09.:18:11.

and when I have been briefed by my Chief Fire Officer they have told me

:18:12.:18:16.

by 2020 most of the firefighters, the majority of firefighters in West

:18:17.:18:19.

Yorkshire will be over the age of 50. I think there is a real issue,

:18:20.:18:23.

in the Fire Service, about the fact that we are not recruiting young

:18:24.:18:26.

firefighter, we are not training them and the closure of fire

:18:27.:18:29.

stations and it is interesting what you said about different parties, we

:18:30.:18:33.

have a former firefighter who is a Ukip councillor in my area, so I

:18:34.:18:37.

look forward to working with Matt on tackling some of the Ukip mythology.

:18:38.:18:43.

I understand that, but on the broad thrust of Mr Corbyn's direction he

:18:44.:18:48.

is going in, that is another strong voice you will end up opposing. I

:18:49.:18:52.

don't oppose the Fire Brigades' Union, I think they do amazing work.

:18:53.:18:58.

I am not... I, on the question was not do you oppose the Fire Brigades'

:18:59.:19:01.

Union for being the Fire Brigades' Union, that would be an absurd

:19:02.:19:08.

question, that would be an equally ludicrous we, me point is this is a

:19:09.:19:13.

strong well-organised union that is back in the Labour Party, determined

:19:14.:19:17.

to take the Labour Party in the direction Mr Corbyn wants it to go,

:19:18.:19:21.

and you are opposed to that. I want the Labour Party to move forward in

:19:22.:19:25.

the broad coalition and the Broadchurch it has always been. I

:19:26.:19:31.

welcome the rejoining of the FBU as an historic trade union,

:19:32.:19:33.

representing thousands of working men and women. I am not sure what my

:19:34.:19:39.

case is, so we all want to see a Labour Government in 2020. You know,

:19:40.:19:42.

the more people we have working towards that end, the better it is.

:19:43.:19:50.

Should Mr Corbyn have whipped the Labour Party against extending

:19:51.:19:54.

bombing to Syria? You are against it too. Personally I a am. My union

:19:55.:19:58.

hasn't discussed the current situation, although we have

:19:59.:20:02.

discussed related matters. We were talking about the safety of British

:20:03.:20:06.

citizens in relation to terrorism. It is appalling that we are

:20:07.:20:11.

discussing that at the same time that this week, the London Fire

:20:12.:20:15.

Brigade is discussing cutting another 13 fire engines on the

:20:16.:20:17.

instructions of the mayor. So let us, if we are talking about the

:20:18.:20:22.

safety of British citizens, 7/7 the firefighters were sent down into

:20:23.:20:26.

tunnels to save people's lives. We are now in a week of -- weaker

:20:27.:20:32.

position in relation to public safety, firefighters have a great

:20:33.:20:37.

interest in terrorism. And a great role to play when terrorism... My

:20:38.:20:43.

question to you was, should Mr Corbyn have whipped the Labour Party

:20:44.:20:46.

against extending strikes into Syria? I wasn't in that discussion,

:20:47.:20:50.

that is a matter for Mr Corbyn as the leader of the Labour Party to

:20:51.:20:54.

make. I do think there are a whole host of contradictions in the

:20:55.:20:57.

position that David Cameron is adopting in relation to Syria, two

:20:58.:21:00.

years ago he wanted to bomb the other side. Today he wants to bomb a

:21:01.:21:04.

different side in a nasty Civil War. I don't, I am not personally

:21:05.:21:08.

convinced there is a realise ticks strategy to address the threat of

:21:09.:21:15.

Isil. Caroline, you agree with Mr Corbyn on most things, on war and

:21:16.:21:21.

peace, social justice, environmental issue, rejecting austerity, where

:21:22.:21:26.

don't you agree on him I am glad he did give a free vote. I think on

:21:27.:21:30.

matters of such issues of conscience it is right to give a free vote.

:21:31.:21:36.

What about the wider issues I raised On the issue of Syria on Trident,

:21:37.:21:40.

yes we have worked closely. Where don't you agree with him? Jeremy is

:21:41.:21:48.

leading the Labour Party. I know, what don't, I am trying to get the

:21:49.:21:53.

answer. Where I agree is I think he has strong policies. I didn't ask

:21:54.:22:01.

you, where do you disagree. I will give you the the answer. On

:22:02.:22:06.

recognising the imperative of green policies of environmental policy ssm

:22:07.:22:11.

nuclear power. He says he is a huge environmentalist and I am sure you

:22:12.:22:14.

were in there you could nudge him more in that direction. You are the

:22:15.:22:19.

last person to take what someone says as being the gospel truth. You

:22:20.:22:23.

will address it and interrogate it. I would say that Labour Party that

:22:24.:22:27.

is up supporting nuclear power is a Labour Party that hasn't recognised

:22:28.:22:30.

the future of energy needs to be one which is community energy, that is

:22:31.:22:34.

renewable energy, green energy, the amount of money nuclear energy will

:22:35.:22:37.

cost us is going to have massive opportunity costs. You have got the

:22:38.:22:41.

Fire Brigades' Union right but I failed in my attempt to get The

:22:42.:22:46.

Greens. Nice try. Thank you very much both of you.

:22:47.:22:47.

It is final for our daily quiz. Caroline Lucas

:22:48.:22:51.

and other campaigners have been trying to destroy the Lords

:22:52.:22:52.

for years, but it seems something So our question for today is,

:22:53.:22:56.

what's eating the House of Lords? I hope none of you are enjoying

:22:57.:22:59.

your lunch at the moment. At the end of the show Caroline

:23:00.:23:02.

will give us the correct answer. Now, the Conservative Party board

:23:03.:23:13.

met yesterday afternoon to decide its next move in the scandal

:23:14.:23:15.

surrounding allegations of bullying At the weekend

:23:16.:23:18.

the party's former co-chairman Grant Shapps resigned as minister, saying

:23:19.:23:21.

that the buck stopped with him - but that failed to stem criticism of

:23:22.:23:24.

the party's handling of the affair. Let's speak to our Deputy

:23:25.:23:27.

Political Editor, James Landale. Where are we in this now? I see the

:23:28.:23:58.

Tories are now had to go to another rather more independent inquiry to

:23:59.:24:02.

try and hose this down? Yes, what they have done is decided to hand

:24:03.:24:07.

the entire inquiry over to Clifford Chance, it was in, they were

:24:08.:24:12.

reviewing the Conservative Party's internal inquiry, that has changed,

:24:13.:24:17.

clift Chance will take sole charge, that inquiry itself will be sqently

:24:18.:24:25.

reviewed by a guy called Lord Panick. The report will be

:24:26.:24:30.

published, when the board discusses the findings of the report, Lord

:24:31.:24:39.

Feldman and Robert Halfon will. What the party is trying to do, they will

:24:40.:24:43.

clear their hands of the inquiry so it is more independent than it was

:24:44.:24:46.

in the past. In a hope that will satisfy some of the critics it has

:24:47.:24:51.

gone far enough. In other words, grant Shapes has resigned. The --

:24:52.:24:55.

Grant Shapps has resigned. They hope it will draw a line I sense a

:24:56.:25:03.

circling of the establishment Tory wagons round Andrew Feldman, is that

:25:04.:25:07.

right? Does he survive to at least until this report comes out? I think

:25:08.:25:11.

that is what they will hope will happen. Certainly, the message has

:25:12.:25:15.

gone out that Andrew Feldman needs to be supported. I have had

:25:16.:25:21.

unprompted calls from Conservative MPs saying he is a nice chap. He is

:25:22.:25:25.

a Popular Party chairmanlet one because he is a pleasant individual,

:25:26.:25:29.

and you know they enjoy, interacting with him, secondly he raises a lot

:25:30.:25:32.

of money for the Conservative Party. He has got the Conservative Party in

:25:33.:25:36.

much better shape than in the past, the MPs understand that, because

:25:37.:25:40.

that filters down through to their local associations, the other thing

:25:41.:25:42.

that is helping the Government and the Conservative Party is the fact

:25:43.:25:46.

there are so much attention on Syria at the moment, that it takes some of

:25:47.:25:51.

the political heat out of this story, so the pressure from The

:25:52.:25:54.

Papers and elsewhere is hidden inside the newspapers rather than on

:25:55.:25:57.

the front-page. The key question is this, that is the father of the

:25:58.:26:02.

young story -- Tory activist who died earlier this year, Ray

:26:03.:26:07.

Johnston, he is a man who has already you know, expressed his

:26:08.:26:10.

opinion strongly that Grant Shapps should resign. He has resigned. He

:26:11.:26:14.

still thinks that Lord Feldman should resign. A lot of papers will

:26:15.:26:20.

take their cue from that. I don't think the pressure is over yet.

:26:21.:26:21.

EU leaders met with Turkey at the weekend, and have agreed

:26:22.:26:25.

a deal to try and stem the flow of migrants travelling through

:26:26.:26:28.

Turkey has agreed to tighten its border and reduce the number

:26:29.:26:32.

of people leaving its shores and heading to Greece.

:26:33.:26:34.

720,000 migrants have arrived in Greece so far this year.

:26:35.:26:37.

But Turkey won several big concessions in return.

:26:38.:26:39.

As part of the deal, the EU will give Turkey an initial

:26:40.:26:42.

three billion euros to help Syrian refugees in the country.

:26:43.:26:44.

Turkish citizens will be able to travel to Europe visa-free within

:26:45.:26:47.

a year, as long as certain conditions are met.

:26:48.:26:53.

And negotiations on Turkey joining the EU will be re-opened.

:26:54.:26:55.

The Turkish Prime Minister said it was an "historic day"

:26:56.:26:58.

Some say the EU has been too generous, but

:26:59.:27:01.

German Chancellor Angela Merkel said Turkey should not be "left alone"

:27:02.:27:03.

And we're joined now by the Ukip MP, Douglas Carswell.

:27:04.:27:26.

Welcome. What is wrong with this deal? I can see from turkey's point

:27:27.:27:35.

of view why it is good. First of all they get EU membership negotiations

:27:36.:27:39.

to resume now, I wouldn't want EU membership on a friend and I am a

:27:40.:27:42.

friend of Turkey. It would be bad for them. They get 2 billion a year,

:27:43.:27:51.

3 billion euro, ?400,000, sorry 400 million of which we contribute to.

:27:52.:27:57.

400,000 refugees a year will be shared out among the Shengen

:27:58.:28:00.

country, we are not in Shengen, but once you have been allocated to a

:28:01.:28:05.

Shengen country, and you have got your residency papers you will have

:28:06.:28:08.

the right to come and live in this country. Imagine you are part of the

:28:09.:28:12.

quota that gets allocated to Portugal our Italy. The moment you

:28:13.:28:16.

get your papers you can move from Portugal to heck ham or Italy to

:28:17.:28:22.

Ipswich. No-one is asking whether we agree. It's a bad deal for us.

:28:23.:28:30.

Caroline Lucas what do you say? I have serious misgivings as well.

:28:31.:28:34.

Turkey's human rights record is appall, I think that the role they

:28:35.:28:38.

are praying in the crisis in Syria is unhelpful and so the idea we are

:28:39.:28:42.

going to open doors now, to them, seems to me to be wrong. If they

:28:43.:28:45.

were going to be part of negotiations to be part of the EU,

:28:46.:28:48.

there are all kinds of things they would have to put in place first.

:28:49.:28:52.

The independence of the judiciary, human right, a range of qualities.

:28:53.:28:56.

For all these reasons no-one ex Presidents Turkey to be a member of

:28:57.:29:02.

the EU in the foreseeable future They are getting a key benefit which

:29:03.:29:07.

is the act to move round the EU at will without having to show papers

:29:08.:29:11.

or have restriction, that is the concern. The fact that 75 million

:29:12.:29:17.

Turks will have unreTricketted non-visa access from October. People

:29:18.:29:22.

say that doesn't confer perm negotiate right of residence. They

:29:23.:29:26.

are going to stay in. How do we know that people coming into the Shengen

:29:27.:29:29.

area from October are not going to remain there? Once they have

:29:30.:29:33.

obtained residency right, they will, I am sure, move to this country. So,

:29:34.:29:38.

why didn't the British Government oppose this? Indeed. You may notice

:29:39.:29:42.

I am not a defender of the current Government. I have noticed that. I

:29:43.:29:47.

think that David Cameron has allowed the European Union to negotiate on

:29:48.:29:51.

our behalf, with Turkey and it is yet one more reason why we are

:29:52.:29:54.

better off leaving the European Union, the European Union has lost

:29:55.:30:00.

control of its migration policy itself has lost the ability to

:30:01.:30:04.

negotiate well. We would be wetter -- better off taking control. You

:30:05.:30:10.

don't agree with that, but, the European Union clearly felt it has

:30:11.:30:14.

to do something to try and at least get a grip of this uncontrolled

:30:15.:30:19.

migration that is currently coming in, and even though we we have moved

:30:20.:30:24.

now as of today into the winter months it will be become I suspect a

:30:25.:30:28.

humanitarian crisis, even worse now, they felt they had to do something,

:30:29.:30:34.

and didn't they use what tools they have available, which is money and

:30:35.:30:39.

some agreement. They know that they can't put a fence up. They know it

:30:40.:30:45.

can't be fortress Europe. They are right to recognise the situation in

:30:46.:30:48.

the refugee camps is getting desperate. People are in poverty and

:30:49.:30:53.

cold and hungry and yes, finances should be going to support people in

:30:54.:30:57.

those refugee camps and Britain ought to be doing more as well,

:30:58.:30:59.

although with have a good record. I would like us to talk to our EU

:31:00.:31:11.

counterparts to step up the finance they were putting into the pot

:31:12.:31:14.

rather than opening the doors to a country with such an appalling human

:31:15.:31:21.

rights record and would not be in a position to join the EU given that

:31:22.:31:26.

record. If a Turkish national takes the advantage of this, they will

:31:27.:31:31.

still have two show their Turkish passport at the British border,

:31:32.:31:35.

while they? Correct. But if you are allowed into Europe and there is no

:31:36.:31:41.

system to log people in, you will just stay. In America they have a

:31:42.:31:44.

technology driven system which means you are logged in and logged out.

:31:45.:31:49.

The London Underground logs you in and out. Europe simply does not have

:31:50.:31:56.

it. It is allowing people entry into Schengen was no way of locking them

:31:57.:32:02.

in or out. Was there a sense of desperation from Europe on this?

:32:03.:32:06.

That is an interesting point about the login and logged out. There is

:32:07.:32:10.

no real political will, even in Germany, which used to be a big

:32:11.:32:15.

supporter of Turkey, to give Turkey full membership but it has been

:32:16.:32:19.

dangled there. The idea that President Hollande, this side of a

:32:20.:32:25.

difficult election, would agree to Turkish membership is inconceivable.

:32:26.:32:28.

I think that is right. It is a Turkish membership is inconceivable.

:32:29.:32:33.

slightly cynical move. People are very worried about vast numbers of

:32:34.:32:36.

refugees coming and they are trying to outsource the problem, to leave

:32:37.:32:41.

it to the Turkish, give them some benefits and close our eyes to it.

:32:42.:32:48.

It is really worrying. A few years ago the problem with Europe not

:32:49.:32:52.

being able to handle its currency, now we see Europe not been able to

:32:53.:32:55.

provide basic leadership over the migration crisis. Maybe Europe

:32:56.:33:00.

simply cannot organise the affairs of half a billion people this way.

:33:01.:33:06.

Maybe we should leave the European Union and take control. It is such a

:33:07.:33:09.

shame that is where you always end up! The people we're blaming the

:33:10.:33:19.

current governments of the EU. I don't blame the EU. I blame

:33:20.:33:23.

successive British administrations that have signed us up. A quick

:33:24.:33:29.

question. Have you made up your mind how you are going to vote in the

:33:30.:33:33.

Syrian motion? I am genuinely undecided. Will you win Oldham? We

:33:34.:33:42.

are still the underdog but it could happen, let's wait and see.

:33:43.:33:45.

World leaders are meeting in Paris to try and reach international

:33:46.:33:48.

agreement on reducing emissions and tackling climate change.

:33:49.:33:49.

In his speech to the conference yesterday, David

:33:50.:33:51.

Cameron said we need "global action to deal with a global problem".

:33:52.:33:54.

But closer to home green campaigners are angry at changes made

:33:55.:33:57.

in the summer budget and recent spending review that will

:33:58.:33:59.

reduce the subsidies available to renewable energy, once famously

:34:00.:34:03.

Last week, Chancellor George Osborne announced that the green levies paid

:34:04.:34:15.

by consumers on their energy bills will be reduced.

:34:16.:34:17.

He also scrapped a ?1 billion competition to develop carbon

:34:18.:34:21.

And exempted energy intensive industries, like steel, from

:34:22.:34:27.

the cost of environmental tariffs, while cutting the day-to-day budget

:34:28.:34:32.

for the Department for Energy and Climate Change by 22%.

:34:33.:34:37.

This is on top of plans already announced to raise

:34:38.:34:40.

hundreds of millions in taxes from renewable energy companies by making

:34:41.:34:45.

And cuts in the subsidies available for solar power and onshore wind.

:34:46.:34:58.

Offshore wind still gets its subsidies.

:34:59.:35:01.

Energy and Climate Change Secretary Amber Rudd insists the government is

:35:02.:35:03.

still on course to meet its emissions targets, and says it is

:35:04.:35:06.

doubling funding for innovation and research in the energy industry,

:35:07.:35:09.

while taking action to keep the cost of energy down.

:35:10.:35:14.

We're joined now by the former Conservative Cabinet

:35:15.:35:16.

Welcome. When you see that list of changes the Government has made,

:35:17.:35:27.

particularly in subsidies to renewable energy, quite hard to

:35:28.:35:34.

claim to be the greenest government ever, isn't it? They are being even

:35:35.:35:38.

greener than they intended. They said forward a certain budget to

:35:39.:35:42.

reach a certain target for renewables. The subsidies were

:35:43.:35:48.

generous and people signed up too fast. The budget was fully used up.

:35:49.:35:53.

And they were ahead of schedule in meeting their targets. I am

:35:54.:35:58.

sceptical about the whole business. But to give them credit, it is not

:35:59.:36:00.

because they wanted to do too little, but they had done more than

:36:01.:36:06.

they intended. You think there is no doubt we meet our renewable targets?

:36:07.:36:13.

I don't think there is. Caroline may have a sceptical view. In the short

:36:14.:36:17.

term we will meet them but longer term it looks likely that we will

:36:18.:36:21.

not. The idea of cutting the subsidies to solar right now is what

:36:22.:36:28.

is just so lacking in any sense. The bit of support could have gone on

:36:29.:36:31.

for another few years. Solar would have been at a stage where it would

:36:32.:36:35.

not have needed that extra support. It would have been able to compete

:36:36.:36:41.

with other fossil fuels and other markets. Just for the sake of

:36:42.:36:44.

another few years of that support, we have sacrificed a growing

:36:45.:36:48.

industry. In Brighton there are solar companies going out of

:36:49.:36:52.

business. Thousands of people are being laid off, possibly up to

:36:53.:36:56.

20,000, as a result of this short-sighted move. Another couple

:36:57.:37:01.

of years would have done the job? It is always a couple of years. Even if

:37:02.:37:07.

they reach grid parity, the cost of producing electricity by solar is

:37:08.:37:12.

the same as delivering it to the grid, unfortunately solar delivers

:37:13.:37:16.

it only at The Times we do not need it. We need it most in winter and in

:37:17.:37:21.

the evenings. The sun does not shine very much in the summer for the

:37:22.:37:25.

evenings. Electricity is much less valuable at that time. To be

:37:26.:37:31.

competitive it would have too produced between 30 and 50% less

:37:32.:37:36.

cost than conventional fuels. There is no chance of that on the horizon.

:37:37.:37:40.

You know there are huge strides happening when it comes to energy

:37:41.:37:45.

storage. One of the decisions this government has taken is to lock us

:37:46.:37:50.

into this huge contract with building a new nuclear power station

:37:51.:37:53.

at Hinkley Point. The evidence is clearly there that that power

:37:54.:37:57.

station will lock us into those funds for 35 years. If you look at

:37:58.:38:01.

what solar could have done, we would have been getting electricity far

:38:02.:38:07.

more cheaply than from nuclear. I understand the economics. But that

:38:08.:38:10.

does presuppose we will crack the storage issue. The power generated

:38:11.:38:16.

by solar, when the sun is shining, we can then store insufficiently

:38:17.:38:22.

large quantities to feed it into the grid. It does not exist yet. Not in

:38:23.:38:33.

any large scale. It may one day. We are always making breakthroughs, we

:38:34.:38:37.

are always on the edge things. It would not matter if we had subsidies

:38:38.:38:41.

for the next few years are not, but it is not remotely close. I hope

:38:42.:38:46.

they do develop these storage things and they become cheaper. But at the

:38:47.:38:50.

moment they are only dreams of the Greens. They do not exist in the

:38:51.:38:55.

real world. The Paris climate talks are already talking about an

:38:56.:38:59.

international group of scientists stepping up the work on this. It

:39:00.:39:02.

would be done far faster than when you get the first bit of electricity

:39:03.:39:06.

coming out of Hinkley Point. I will lay a bet on it. Back to Hinkley

:39:07.:39:14.

Point, people have criticised onshore and offshore wind for being

:39:15.:39:17.

expensive. It is a fair bet that Hinckley power station will be the

:39:18.:39:21.

most expensive power station ever built in the world and need time

:39:22.:39:29.

anywhere. -- any time. That is assuming it is on-time and budget,

:39:30.:39:33.

which given EDF and France's record, will probably be a stupid

:39:34.:39:40.

assumption to make. I agree. I am rather sceptical on it. I used to be

:39:41.:39:46.

keen on nuclear energy. As a child I decided to be an scientist because

:39:47.:39:51.

nuclear -- because nuclear energy had just been discovered. Now it is

:39:52.:39:56.

too extensive to contemplate. It is one of those things where the

:39:57.:40:00.

assumption that costs always goes down does not prove to be true. I

:40:01.:40:06.

may recruit Peter to the anti nuclear cores. I would be in favour

:40:07.:40:14.

of looking at small modular areas. At least the industry would be

:40:15.:40:18.

home-grown and capable of exporting. On the wider issue of what is going

:40:19.:40:23.

on in Paris, you don't really think it is important, is that right? It

:40:24.:40:28.

is not terribly important. Even if it achieves what it claims to

:40:29.:40:33.

achieve, the only two studies I have seen which have fed through all of

:40:34.:40:35.

the commitments that governments are planning to make through the

:40:36.:40:41.

computers, forecasts for the future climate, I am sceptical. That this

:40:42.:40:56.

will mean that the world at the end of the century is 0.2 degrees cooler

:40:57.:41:00.

than it would otherwise be. An expenditure of trillions of dollars.

:41:01.:41:05.

I would certainly say that Bjorn Lundberg is hardly an independent

:41:06.:41:12.

expert. Surely he is as independent as you, me or Andrew. What is

:41:13.:41:18.

happening in Paris is incredibly exciting. I think these are the best

:41:19.:41:24.

chances we have had of getting an agreement to keep warming as close

:41:25.:41:32.

below 2 degrees. We want to keep below two Celsius warming. At the

:41:33.:41:35.

moment if you add up what the different countries have pledged, it

:41:36.:41:40.

is still looking more like 2.7. The good thing is they were building a

:41:41.:41:44.

ratchet mechanism whereby these could be reviewed regularly so that

:41:45.:41:48.

as the science and technology progresses, we could also ratchet up

:41:49.:41:53.

the ambition. Will it be binding? I fear that it will not be binding.

:41:54.:42:01.

That is a weakness, isn't it? It is certainly a weakness. But if you

:42:02.:42:05.

compare where we are now with Copenhagen, that disintegrated in

:42:06.:42:09.

such chaos. Now we have a good text in front of negotiators that can be

:42:10.:42:12.

improved. We have do hope the political will is there. Copenhagen

:42:13.:42:22.

handed -- ended without resolution. There are higher hopes for the Paris

:42:23.:42:26.

meeting. There is a sense there with the agreement will stop They will

:42:27.:42:31.

always agree to agree. It is agree to something because it is not

:42:32.:42:38.

binding. Most countries, as they develop, will start using energy

:42:39.:42:42.

more efficiently. They will be able to make commitments to reduce the

:42:43.:42:48.

amount of energy per unit of GDP. China will do that automatically. It

:42:49.:42:51.

has nothing to do with carbon dioxide. That has been happening in

:42:52.:42:58.

America. Yes. The fact that China and the US are absolutely on-board,

:42:59.:43:02.

the fact that businesses are lobbying... China is now the biggest

:43:03.:43:10.

place for renewable energy. Is also going to build 100 new coal

:43:11.:43:15.

stations. It is also doing a lot on renewable energy. It is not a great

:43:16.:43:23.

policy to have. It helps to create that huge smog. They are moving away

:43:24.:43:29.

from that very fast. I would be very surprised if 100 new ones happen

:43:30.:43:32.

because of the smog but because their local people cannot live in

:43:33.:43:42.

it. There could be an opportunity for you there in China! Have you

:43:43.:43:45.

made up your mind how you will vote on the Syrian motion tomorrow? No. I

:43:46.:43:52.

start sceptical but I would like to be persuaded there are credible

:43:53.:43:55.

reasons for doing what we clearly will do but I am not yet convinced.

:43:56.:44:00.

You are the second one. Douglas Carswell was in the same position.

:44:01.:44:05.

We hear that the Cabinet is at last going to come to a decision on

:44:06.:44:09.

another runway in the south-east. And the money seems to be on

:44:10.:44:17.

Heathrow. What is your view on that? We should get on and do it. I don't

:44:18.:44:21.

particularly care where it is but let's build it. You don't want a

:44:22.:44:28.

runway anywhere in the south-east? Aviation is the fastest-growing

:44:29.:44:36.

source of gas house emissions. I think basically what we need to do

:44:37.:44:40.

is to reduce demand, that means getting a lot more freight going in

:44:41.:44:45.

other ways. It means also having a proposal for a frequent fry -- Flyer

:44:46.:44:49.

Levy, so it would penalise people who fly a lot, not people who fly

:44:50.:44:54.

less. Do you think it will be Heathrow? Yes, I'm sure it will. Up

:44:55.:45:01.

against Boris Johnson, Zac Goldsmith... We have got more older

:45:02.:45:13.

Tony Evans than they have got! The idea of this government happily no

:45:14.:45:14.

confirmed. Now,

:45:15.:45:18.

this Thursday the polls open for a by-election in the constituency

:45:19.:45:19.

of Oldham West and Royton, which the long-serving left-wing Labour

:45:20.:45:22.

MP Michael Meacher represented The ballot will prove the first

:45:23.:45:24.

electoral test of Jeremy Corbyn's We sent our Adam to see how

:45:25.:45:28.

the battle for Oldham is unfolding. Oldham was a boom town in the Cawson

:45:29.:45:42.

era. A quarter of the population has

:45:43.:45:44.

Pakistani or Bangladeshi heritage, and it has been a safe Labour seat

:45:45.:45:52.

for decades, held by Michael Meacher at the last election with

:45:53.:45:55.

a majority of more than 14,000. Labour's candidate in this

:45:56.:45:59.

by-election is the leader of the local council, but he's having to

:46:00.:46:01.

answer a lot of questions about his leader, because it's the party's

:46:02.:46:04.

first election with Jezza in charge. He's a man of principle

:46:05.:46:09.

and substance, There is big stuff happening

:46:10.:46:12.

in the world at the moment. There's no doubt people will

:46:13.:46:18.

raise that on the door. It's on the news every night

:46:19.:46:25.

when people come home from work and And we had those conversations,

:46:26.:46:28.

and what I'm pleased about is how It's up beat and the challenge

:46:29.:46:33.

for us is to make sure people turn Ukip mention Jeremy Corbyn

:46:34.:46:38.

as often as they can. This is the third by-election

:46:39.:46:41.

in this area What's with this

:46:42.:46:43.

Presidential podium here? That's for when

:46:44.:46:49.

our leader comes up to support me. I wouldn't dare present from there

:46:50.:46:52.

when I know Nigel is coming up. It's not that three by-elections

:46:53.:46:57.

have gone to your head? I'm going to see the doctor after

:46:58.:47:02.

this one, because I must be mad. I'm doing it

:47:03.:47:08.

because I really believe in what we stand for, and what we're trying to

:47:09.:47:10.

go to get our country back. The Tories were beaten

:47:11.:47:13.

into third place by Ukip in May. This time their leaflets

:47:14.:47:18.

are resolutely local. It's a local plan,

:47:19.:47:20.

it's a three point plan. It's a plan based upon issues that

:47:21.:47:22.

affect people every day, and have First, it's tackling crime

:47:23.:47:25.

and anti-social behaviour. Secondly,

:47:26.:47:29.

it's better public transport and more investment, and thirdly,

:47:30.:47:30.

it's cleaning up our streets. Dealing with the blight of potholes,

:47:31.:47:32.

fly-tipping and littering. While the Liberal Democrats are

:47:33.:47:34.

campaigning at the local mosque, We were the only party in Parliament

:47:35.:47:37.

that stood up Thankfully, the Tories have come

:47:38.:47:42.

onboard with our campaign to stop the tax credit cuts,

:47:43.:47:46.

but we are still concerned there is And the Green candidate,

:47:47.:47:49.

who is deaf and speaks through an interpreter, took me to a local

:47:50.:47:53.

spot that is about to be built on. This is being planned now to build

:47:54.:47:58.

a warehouse and houses. So this whole area is going to

:47:59.:48:03.

be affected with more traffic. It will create employment,

:48:04.:48:09.

but the people that live in this local area are really going

:48:10.:48:12.

to miss this beautiful environment. They all want to represent

:48:13.:48:19.

an area of the north-west of England where Winston Churchill began

:48:20.:48:22.

his Parliamentary career. It's also claimed to be the place

:48:23.:48:23.

where fish and chips were invented. There is even a Blue Plaque

:48:24.:48:26.

commemorating here in the town centre, which gives me an idea for

:48:27.:48:32.

a Daily Politics by-election quiz. When was the last time you went to

:48:33.:48:35.

the chippy and what did you have? About three days ago,

:48:36.:48:39.

fish chips and peas. There's one next door here, and I

:48:40.:48:41.

have to stop myself going in because I have a terrible diet, so yes,

:48:42.:48:48.

I eat far too many chips. Like, is it a a very green thing,

:48:49.:48:54.

fish and chips? I'm a dietician by profession, what

:48:55.:48:56.

we need is a mixed balanced diet, with lots of fruit and vegetables,

:48:57.:49:03.

and did you know mushy peas count If I'm honest,

:49:04.:49:06.

there is more appetite for fish and We will find out who tastes victory

:49:07.:49:15.

in the early hours of Friday And a full list

:49:16.:49:19.

of candidates standing in the Oldham West and Royton by-election

:49:20.:49:27.

can be found on the BBC website. And to discuss Thursday's

:49:28.:49:30.

by-election there we're joined by Like to The you take a this seat, it

:49:31.:49:51.

is in solid Labour Terry, it has only been two years it hasn't been a

:49:52.:49:53.

Labour seat. It's the kind of seat only been two years it hasn't been a

:49:54.:49:59.

that a Labour opposition, emphasise being in opposition, a by-election

:50:00.:50:04.

it should just automatically win? It is interesting because Oldham is

:50:05.:50:09.

where Ed Miliband faced his first electoral test in Oldham East. When

:50:10.:50:13.

he fought that by-election, the majority went up strongly, whereas

:50:14.:50:17.

everyone expects the majority in Omid ham west to fall. The question

:50:18.:50:21.

is how far, and does the seat fall into the ground of being in jeopardy

:50:22.:50:26.

Do we know if there was much of a personal vote for Michael Meacher?

:50:27.:50:31.

He represented that seat forever, and he was well-known locally. They

:50:32.:50:35.

have another strong local candidate fighting Labour this time, from the

:50:36.:50:43.

sort of centre-right of the party, does the Labour candidate, the lack

:50:44.:50:46.

of Michael Meacher is that a factor? It could be. Long-term MPs

:50:47.:50:51.

of Michael Meacher is that a factor? personal follows, they become part

:50:52.:50:53.

of the local furniture and it may play into an issue that Labour have

:50:54.:50:58.

to worry about, which is turn out. We have this election at the begins

:50:59.:51:03.

of December. The weather is awful there, there may have been voters

:51:04.:51:06.

who would have been willing to turn out for Michael but not for a

:51:07.:51:09.

candidate who is perhaps not as familiar to them. We are all here,

:51:10.:51:17.

just, obsesses isn't the word, we are amazed at what is going on at

:51:18.:51:21.

the Labour Party at the minute and following every move that Mr Corbyn

:51:22.:51:27.

makes, is there evidence thosing having cut through to the voters in

:51:28.:51:33.

a constituency like Oldham. That is one of the things we will watch the

:51:34.:51:37.

results for. There is two things we want to watch for, firstly what

:51:38.:51:40.

happens to Labour vote in white working class areas where a lot of

:51:41.:51:45.

the polling suggests Mr Corbyn is not popular and what happens to the

:51:46.:51:49.

Conservative vote. It is about 20% Conservative vote. We don't know how

:51:50.:51:55.

they will react, whether they will back a Ukip candidate on the basis

:51:56.:51:59.

when we look at the national polls Conservatives dislike Mr Corbyn a

:52:00.:52:06.

lot. Will they vote for Ukip on an anyone but Jezza vote. They might do

:52:07.:52:11.

that? That is what happened in the late 90s when people were hack off

:52:12.:52:16.

with the give it Government. The Liberal Democrats benefitted, with

:52:17.:52:19.

northern Conservative voters say we can't win round here but we can send

:52:20.:52:25.

a message about rejecting the current Labour leadership by voting

:52:26.:52:29.

for the Ukip candidate. So we are looking at three variables here,

:52:30.:52:34.

whether the Tory vote collapses in favour of Ukip, how big the turn out

:52:35.:52:41.

will be in the British Asian community. Voting still loyally for

:52:42.:52:46.

Labour and how bill the defections of the white working class Labour

:52:47.:52:49.

vote to Ukip, is that the way to look at it. That is is right. That

:52:50.:52:54.

is the big searabouts, I would add what pre-Budget reportion of the

:52:55.:53:02.

white working class vote, and stay home. You are right. Tory tactical

:53:03.:53:08.

voting, and turn out among the south Asian community will decide the

:53:09.:53:13.

seat. It makes it hard to, I mean, we all think that the Labour

:53:14.:53:16.

majority will be substantially reduced. It is 14,000, o -- 14700 at

:53:17.:53:26.

the last election. It is hard to be sure how the cookie crumbles.

:53:27.:53:29.

Exactly. You would have to say Labour go in favourites because of

:53:30.:53:34.

the sheer size of that cushion. It is a 35% majority. You shouldn't be

:53:35.:53:39.

losing seats like that under any circumstances but we don't know if

:53:40.:53:43.

it will be a narrow hold. If it is, that is a big problem, if they lose

:53:44.:53:47.

the seat it is a huge problem. Losing would be huge but narrow, a

:53:48.:53:53.

win is a win kind of thing, even if it is a bit embarrassing you count

:53:54.:53:57.

hold it by thousands of votes. I think that is is right. Labour might

:53:58.:54:02.

do better than we are hearing here. The kind of policies that Michael

:54:03.:54:06.

Meacher espoused are close to Jeremy Corbyn's. For people who want a

:54:07.:54:11.

candidate who is more to the centre, someone who appears to be popular

:54:12.:54:15.

and well-known Labour candidate locally. It might not be as grim as

:54:16.:54:20.

we have been haring. We shall see. Thank you for coming on. We will see

:54:21.:54:27.

the outcome and viewers will know we off the back of This Week on

:54:28.:54:33.

Thursday night, we will morph into the this Week the by-election

:54:34.:54:36.

special. We will be with you all through the night until we get the

:54:37.:54:42.

count from Oldham. It is turning out to be an interesting by-election.

:54:43.:54:46.

That is one for night owls. Some of you have to join us, we don't like

:54:47.:54:48.

to talk to ourselves. Time now to give you

:54:49.:54:52.

the answer to our quiz. The question was what's eating

:54:53.:54:55.

the House of Lords. Car line, do you know the answer? I

:54:56.:55:11.

was going to say a combination of all of them. I think I would put my

:55:12.:55:16.

money on the moths. And your money would be right on the moths. That is

:55:17.:55:23.

what is happening. Indeed, they are apparently devouring the soft

:55:24.:55:30.

furnishing in the upper chamber, including the famous Woolsack, which

:55:31.:55:33.

the Lord speaker, is that the name, sits on? That is the one who chairs

:55:34.:55:40.

the Lord's, his Woolsack is in trouble. What should they do. We are

:55:41.:55:56.

joined by a Lepidopterist. Welcome to the programme. Do woe

:55:57.:56:01.

know why the moths are suddenly started to appear like this in the

:56:02.:56:05.

Lords and cause this problem? It is a perfect place for them to live

:56:06.:56:09.

really because of all the natural fibre, you have the wool in the wool

:56:10.:56:15.

seat, you have got horse hair in all the benches and everything, and they

:56:16.:56:24.

just like dull, dusty dinghy places, perfect, -- dingy places.

:56:25.:56:29.

Why has it taken them so long to find out? Every now and again

:56:30.:56:34.

populations do explode, and, so every now and again the conditions

:56:35.:56:38.

are great for them. I the populations explode and they are a

:56:39.:56:43.

big problem. We have 2,500 species of moth in the UK and only six like

:56:44.:56:49.

to eat natural fibres and only two which is the case bearing clothes

:56:50.:56:54.

moth get big enough numbers to cause damage. Do you think maybe they came

:56:55.:57:01.

in on some of the members' clothes? I mean, I don't really know. I

:57:02.:57:05.

suppose it is possible if they have an old suit. A lot have old suits.

:57:06.:57:11.

They have big ermine things as well. It must be like a holiday for moths.

:57:12.:57:21.

Stay in the ermine for a couple of week, enjoy myself, the. It is warm,

:57:22.:57:26.

damp humid and there are dark nooks and crannies under the bench, so if

:57:27.:57:32.

you don't get in with the vacuum cleaner it's a perfect breeding

:57:33.:57:35.

ground for them. When word gets round it is will more than the

:57:36.:57:39.

moths. Who knows what could come in here next. It will be like a horror

:57:40.:57:47.

movie. It is probably a great echo system. How do you get rid of it.

:57:48.:57:55.

Because I work for a conservation organisation it is not my forte,

:57:56.:58:01.

what they can do is they can clean, be very clean, Hoover in the nooks

:58:02.:58:06.

and crannies. Keep the place clean... Any jumpers or anything

:58:07.:58:13.

like that, if they have egg ones, wash them and freeze them. They tend

:58:14.:58:17.

to like dirty jumpers over clean ones. The place is riddled with

:58:18.:58:22.

them. I am not surprised they are there. Does a moth have any function

:58:23.:58:29.

for humans? Completely. Moths are really important pollinctors of

:58:30.:58:34.

plants. Even knows that bees are important, but butterflies and moths

:58:35.:58:37.

are too an they are really important food for bats and birds. I need to

:58:38.:58:44.

stop you. Leave them alone is the message. The One O'Clock News is

:58:45.:58:48.

starting on BBC One. I will be here for Jo tomorrow at the earlier time

:58:49.:58:53.

of 11am. We will go through to 1.00. A Daily Politics special on that big

:58:54.:58:54.

debate on Syria. '..Viking, North Utsire,

:58:55.:59:01.

South Utsire, East Forties, 'southeasterly four or five,

:59:02.:59:04.

increasing six or seven,

:59:05.:59:09.

Download Subtitles

SRT

ASS