04/03/2016 Daily Politics

Afternoon, folks. Welcome to the Daily Politics.

Iain Duncan Smith lays into campaigners for Britain to stay

in the EU, accusing the Remain camp of spin and smear tactics

European leaders holds talks on the migrant crisis,

after Donald Tusk - the President of the European Council -

told potential migrants "do not come to Europe".

Plaid Cymru hold their Spring Conference in Llanelli,

with a claim that Wales is crying out for change after 17 years

The Party's leader, Leanne Wood, joins us live.

And the US Republican Party turns on itself as their former presidential

candidate says Donald Trump is not fit to run the country - a claim

Trump naturally dismissed in last night's TV debate.

He referred to my hands - if they're small, something else

I guarantee you there's no problem, I guarantee.

Not up there with the Lincoln-Douglas debates(!)

All that in the next hour, and with us for the whole

of the programme today, Stephen Bush, from the New Statesman,

and Carole Malone, who writes for the Sunday Mirror.

Let's start with the latest intervention in the EU Referendum

campaign from the Work and Pensions Secretary,

Iain Duncan Smith, who is campaigning for the UK

Writing in the Daily Mail this morning, Mr Duncan Smith doesn't

hold any punches saying, "The Remain campaign's case seems

almost wholly based on what they describe

This case has in whole or in part become characterised by spin,

Mr Duncan Smith also accused the Remain campaign -

backed by most of his Cabinet colleagues -

of making "desperate and unsubstantiated" claims.

In the last hour, David Cameron has been making a speech

at the Scottish Conservative's Spring Conference in Edinburgh.

He didn't respond to Iain Duncan Smith directly,

We will be safer in a reformed Europe. It is there that we have

areas of co-operation, like the European Arrest Warrant through

which we have extradited 7,000 foreign suspects. We need to keep

this co-operation up, to keep our people safe.

Is the nastiness, inter-Tory nastiness worse than you thought it

would be? Oh yes. I can't believe Cameron's naivety in his thinking

that the stuff he is spinning isn't going to be exposed. What he did

yesterday with President Hollande was shameful, getting a foreign

President to put propaganda out about what is going to happen. We

are talking about taking the borders down. When Cameron and everyone else

knows that's got nothing to do with the EU. So, I just - it is his

naivety that I don't get. I think the British people are reacting very

badly to it. They think he's treating them like this, stupid, and

the more he says this stuff and the more he is exposed as rubbish, it

puts people one step nearer... Do you think he is driving them against

what he wants to happen? People who are undecided are walking towards

the door! Isn't one of the weaknesses of the Prime Minister's

position, he paints the picture of apocalypse now if we were to leave.

Why would you have ever said, if I can't get some minor changes on

welfare, I may well decide we are going to leave. It is not credible?

I don't know. We know David Cameron never wanted to leave and he was

forced into the position he is in now. But also the Prime Minister has

succeeded in saying one thing about the deficit and saying a different

thing five years later at the election. People trust Cameron. I

don't think the complexity of that decision is a problem. You think -

the Tory private polling suggests that Mr Cameron has some weight in

this debate and more than with just Conservative voters? David Cameron

is a hugely popular figure and he is a trusted figure. People think he

has the right idea for the country. There is this demographic, the Stay

In campaign call it The Leave it to Dave voters. It would what? The

Common Agricultural Policy would put ?200 billion into the agriculture

sector... ?200 billion? Sorry, ?20 billion. If we were to vote to

leave, we would instigate a system of British farm subsidies like we

had before we joined? You are immediately asked where would it

come from? It would come from the money we send to Brussels. That is

where Cameron wants the argument to be. That is a terrain which is only

disastrous for Leave. There is a danger for Mr Cameron if it

continues in this level of unpleasantness within the

Conservative Party, that even if he wins on June 23rd, there will be a

growing mood to say, right, it is time for you to step down? When he

came back from Brussels with the deal, everyone thought that if we

did vote to go, Cameron would be in charge. You say people trust him.

They did then. I don't think they trust him now. With everything he

says, the spin and it's exposed as being wrong, I think people distrust

him. I think now whether we leave or whether we stay, he is totally

discredited. I will fact-check your ?20 billion figure. I multiply that

by four or five, it is ?10 billion. But we shall see. That was a mental

fact-check there. I have to do my homework instead.

After a major overhaul of its tax structure,

Facebook is set to pay millions of pounds more in tax in the UK.

But how much corporation tax did it pay in 2014?

Was it a) ?4,000 b) ?40,000, c) ?4 million, or d) ?40 million?

At the end of the show, Stephen and Carole will give us

They have been studying the tax returns through the night(!)

Now, it's been one of the least violent weeks in Syria

since the civil war began there in 2011, but that

Hundreds of thousands of that country's citizens,

along with migrants from across North Africa

and the Middle East, continue to make their way to Europe.

Last Saturday a "cessation of hostilities" was agreed

for Syria, brokered by the United States and Russia.

It's more formal than a truce but falls short of a full ceasefire.

Neither so-called Islamic State or the al-Nusra Front,

an al-Qaeda-linked group, are part of the agreement,

so military manoeuvres in the country have continued.

The UK and France have complained that the Syrian government,

backed by the Russians, has bombed areas where alleged

moderate forces are intermingled with jihadist fighters.

Today the leaders of Germany, the UK, and France will take part

in a conference call with Vladimir Putin to discuss

This week the senior Nato commander in Europe claimed

the Russian President was "weaponising" the migration

More than 130,000 migrants from Africa and the Middle East have

That's after more than 1.2 million made the journey last year.

A serious flashpoint at the moment is the Greece-Macedonian border,

where thousands of migrants have massed on the Greek side seeking

Today European Council President Donald Tusk will meet

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan to try to agree a joint

It's been mooted that a deal would involve non-Syrian migrants

who reach the Greek islands being sent to Turkey.

Quite a lot of them have come from there in the first place.

We can talk now to our correspondent, Danny Savage,

who is on the border between Greece and Macedonia.

What's happening where you are? Andrew, I estimate there is probably

10,500 people here if not more. We are on the Greek side of the border

and people have been trickling through over the last few days. I

think only about 150 people went through the border gate last night

into Macedonia and upwards on the migrant trail. More than that are

arriving by the hour, so it is really not easing the situation at

this camp, where the infrastructure is creaking at the sides, this was a

place built for 1,500 people, loads more than that here now. The queues

you can see behind me are more new arrivals trying to register and get

a place in that never-ending queue, and also the queue for food here,

too, but you have to wait four hours in line to get some grub. The

pictures behind you look quite horrendous. I take it from what you

say that if only a trickle are being allowed through into Macedonia, and

yet a lot more are coming in from Turkey, through the islands and up

the Greek mainland, that the scenes behind you can only get worse? Yeah

because the way it is working at the moment is that people don't want to

be in any other transit migrant camp in Greece because they feel then

they are not in the queue for moving on towards where they want to get

to, which is Germany for most of them. They all want to get here. If

they are in Athens or elsewhere in northern Greece, they think that

they are not going to get over the border at all. There is all these

unsubstantiated rumours, among the migrants, that the borders are going

to close completely at some point, so the desperation to get across is

very real. And the conditions here therefore are very poor because

people are pitching up, they are getting a tent sometimes, they are

then sleeping here in the open, it rained last night, loads of them

have moved on to the railway lines here to camp with great big freight

trains going through because the ground is drier, but the people are

here because they want to be near the front of the queue and if they

are elsewhere, they don't feel as though they are in that queue. Am I

right in thinking this must be another, if you have this huge

backlog happening right behind you now, more on their way, others may

decide when they hit Greece, I'm not going to go, I will stay in the

south until I see what is going to happen. This is a potential huge

crisis for the Greek government, for Greece, a country that is not

exactly in a great position to handle this? No, we know the Greeks

aren't well off at an international level. We have heard from the UN in

the last few days that this is an impending humanitarian crisis. It

depends who you talk to here. MSF and Save the Children would say we

are already in a humanitarian crisis. The overriding sounds and

smells of this site - the sound that I always hear walking around this

campsite - people coughing, kids crying. It is like a camping holiday

from hell here for most of these people. Some of them stay well, but

particularly the young ones who don't have a good immune system,

they are getting ill. Children, particularly, and women make up 60%

of the people here. It is a desperate situation for them. If

there is some glimmer of hope to move on, it makes them feel better.

That hope does seem to be ebbing away. This is a camp where hope is

fading for lots of people. Thank you for joining us. Take care. Danny

Savage on the Macedonian-Greek border, on the Greek side of the

border there. Of course the main reason

for the huge numbers of migrants arriving on the EU's southern

borders is the ongoing conflict Last week world powers agreed

a ceasefire in the Syrian civil war, but coalition and Russian airstrikes

against Islamic State in Syria Our defence correspondent,

Jonathan Beale, is in Baghdad Bring us up to speed on the state of

the Iraqi government's push-back now against Islamic State. We went first

this week to see British troops among other coalition forces

training the Iraqi army. There is no doubt about it, they are more

confident because they are getting that support from air strikes above

them and also getting equipment. For example the British government has

given Iraqi army mine detectors used in Afghanistan and passing on

British soldiers's experience from Northern Ireland and Afghanistan.

They seemed upbeat. They now talking about an offensive on Mosul, which

is the Iraq headquarters for Islamic State, whether caliphate has been

claimed. The person leading this organisation claimed it. The

coalition say they have trained 18,000 Iraqi army recruits. They

need a force of around two and 5000. We've also heard that US special

forces have moved in, the. Force one week ago snatched a high value

target, presumably to get intelligence of what's going on in

city. -- the Delta Force one. We went to Samarra where they claim to

have cleared the ground, much of it is desert, and Islamic State is

still launching offensives. For example when we arrived here they

are still in Fallujah come in Anbar province, and they launched an

offensive, people will remember ten of IB Graber because of the US

prisoner abuse but the town of Abu Ghraib. They cannot keep casualties

but the cause chaos. Islamic State are laying mines everywhere. We saw

them in the field yesterday where we were with the Iraqi army, it killed

a lot of livestock, not people coming and they are using those

devices and truck bombs, we saw the effect of one hour strike on truck

bombers before they could strike. Yet when it comes to the urban

fighting places like Mosul and Fallujah it will be much harder than

taking ground in the desert. Jonathan, when they do take ground

back from Islamic State, are they able to hold it and will things then

quieten down, or is that the risk that these are largely Shia forces

coming into Sunni territory, will we then be in a tense stand-off between

the Shia and Sunni forces? There is no doubt that the Shi'ite militia

are paying a big role in the clearing up operation, rusher the

Shia. For example, the Shia population in the city, protesting

about government corruption, led by October side, who has popped up

again, that sort of division hasn't gone away and is still a problem.

The bigger problem for what is happening on the ground, and we saw

this yesterday is, when they take on Islamic State often they just

disappear in these open ground areas. They melt into the

background. They were holding a lot of young man, trying to question

them, their links with Islamic State but it is easy for them to go back

for example to places like Fallujah, their strongholds, and to dig in, to

make sure that they will carry on the fight. I think it is very hard

to say with confidence that you have defeated Islamic State in an area

when a lot of them have just fled and yes, there are a few truck

bombers, suicide bombers, who have lost their lives but that was not

much evidence of taking prisoners and holding them. Jonathan, in

Baghdad, thank you. And joining us now in the studio

is the foreign affairs analyst, Welcome back to the programme. Let

me come back to this business of the zillion ceasefire, although

cessation of hostilities is a better term. What is Vladimir Putin's aim,

what is he up to? He's already achieved some of his aims, he has

told the world that he doesn't abandon his allies, he has made sure

that the power in Syria will keep his support, it is the only Russian

warm water port, he's got rusher into the Middle East 30 years after

its influence waned there, so if you leave morality out of it he is doing

quite well and has put himself in front and centre of any of the

negotiations in the last bit of the jigsaw. Today David Cameron will be

on the phone to him and so will Angela Merkel and Francois Hollande,

and they will say, come on, you have to help us solve this war because of

conditions in the refugees camp. He will say that he's happy to help,

now what about the sanctions that you have on Ukraine and Russia? It

will come full circle. He knows there is a perfect storm gathering,

use part of the storm and he's one of the very few people able to blow

away the clouds. One of the fallouts of this is the massive European

crisis. Of course not all the migrants come from Syria, get a fair

chunk are. Some are coming from Iraq and Afghanistan as well. Does the

cessation of hostilities helped to reduce the flow, or should we be

planning for a continued flow of migrants from the war zone areas for

the foreseeable future? Absolutely the latter. My mathematics puts

another half a million having left Turkey, Iraq, and Syria, and

probably having reached Europe, my mathematics says half a million

before we vote in the referendum. They may not be in the UK but they

will be on our TV screens that will affect the vote. What you saw on the

screen in Macedonia will be tripled, quadrupled. Because the war in Syria

will not stop. It's simply initiative for the time being. I'm

glad you brought in Jonathan from Iraq because this is part of the

perfect storm, especially Mosul. I would add to that Afghanistan,

Eritrea, still a basket case because a sizeable proportion of the people

coming from Eritrea. Some of those in the Calais camp from there. I

would add to the Brexit to that, the fact that Greece is in such

financial turmoil, the whole thing is coming together. This spring,

130,000 people have already made it here, mostly to Greece. What the

Macedonians have done, this is why there is no European unity, and

hopefully we can get onto Angela Merkel and Francois Hollande, last

week the Austrians got together with seven Balkan countries completely

separately from the EU and did their own eight nation deal. What you are

seeing in Macedonia, this bottleneck growing and it will grow bigger and

bigger, it's because the eight countries said they would

fingerprint everyone coming through. That takes time. And they will check

the documents, and check the people. They do that because then they know

that only 8100 people every day get through. If 1000 every day are

coming, and 80 a day going through, you do the maths. Angela Merkel has

one plan which has already been rejected, she's coming back to it

next week, plan a, that is we need to parcel them out, you take

100,000... And yet those eight countries of rejected it, so have

hungry, the Scandinavians and Britain, and Poland. And is going to

be a referendum. We know the result. They will take 2000 because they

will lose the referendum if they say we don't want it. Angela Merkel has

plan a and that has been rejected. I understand that she is coming back

to it next week having talked to the Turkish people, which is why Donald

Tusk is in Ankara today, and they are going to offer Turkey a lot of

money and Turkey will want a lot of things back and at the moment I

don't think you can get that agreement between Turkey and EU

which is accelerated access into the European Union, visas for all

Turkish workers wanting to come here, that's 8 million people.

Imagine what that will do to the Brexit vote. So it keeps coming

round in a circle. I do not think the EU can offer Turkey what it once

and I don't think Turkey will give the EU what it wants. At the

instigation of Angela Merkel, Germany took in 2 million migrants

last year. Is it credible that she will be able to convince Germany to

take on another million this year? This is where the regional elections

this month in Germany are important. How much will she be damaged? She

has been damaged. It's funny, there's reality and this perception

and emotion and there's politics. All different things. Angela Merkel

knows the publishing of Germany is declining and that they need 1

million people yet the German people wanted in an orderly fashion of

their choice. So they do need more people to come but the German

electorate don't want that, and consequently they will go to the

right, there were 900 attacks on asylum seekers in Germany last year.

We think it is bad here? Two state elections this month. What if all

the politicians across the European Union see that all the electorate is

turning to the right, which is mostly happening? They will turn to

the right and they want open borders, they will put up fences

which will do nothing for the bottleneck. So the key is to go back

to Syria and Iraq and solve those wars and good luck with that! When

you listen to Tim describe what is the likely backdrop to the

referendum, between now and June 23, if you want to vote to remain, you

could not wish for a worse backdrop. And the biggest threat to the Remain

side is, a body of people washing up on beaches, Europe losing control of

its borders. That is far more important to whether Britain leaves

all stays in the EU than the grumbling from the Cabinet

ministers. It is the pictures of bodies on beaches. It is whether or

not Europe can defend its periphery and it looks, troublingly, at the

moment, as if it can't. And the other thing is that they mostly men

because the women and children stay behind because of the dangers of

crossing servers and a graphic explosion waiting to happen in parts

of Europe, like China and the consequences of the child policy.

One more example that I forgot, rioting. I don't see why do you want

to see rioting in these camps down south, a thousand you can handle,

why wouldn't people right? And that is what will be on TV screens. And

that will have an effect. Sorry, Carole. It is a grim picture. I

think you'd be hard pushed, anyone who was dithering about what to do,

why would they be convinced to want to stay in Europe if we see fences

erected in countries that until now have espoused free movement? We have

seen what free movement does. It could be a problem for us whether we

are in or out, unless you want to build a fortress Europe, we will

still be in the European continent, 20 miles away from France. Although

the euro is shot, why would we want to be apart of a group where the

currency is shot, where unemployment is at an all-time high, and we are

doing pretty well,... You raise an interesting point related to the

migrant crisis. Because many of these young men, now increasingly

young man, they are coming to Europe and jobs. But they are also coming

to the continent to look for jobs in the one continent in the Western

world which is not capable of providing jobs for the young people

already here. That has to be a toxic situation. That's what I mean, the

perfect storm. It's possible Europe could have got over the 2008 crash.

It is partially recovering economically, yet that damaged it so

much. Just as it was maybe getting out of that crashed we've now

introduced this terrible war in the middle east which has placed massive

pressures, when people are facing pressure, and again I go back to

emotion. I think often people in politics only look at facts and

figures and they forget peoples emotions. People will not always had

exactly on their wallets which is the accepted wisdom and exactly on

facts and figures, they will vote on emotion. And when we see what is

happening on our borders, they will be those people will want to open

everything up and bring people in but I think that will simply result

a real turn to the right in Europe, and that means the middle will tack

to the right, and the very freedoms which make you want to welcome

people in will then be damaged. I really want a solution, Andrew, and

I'm waiting for you to tell me what it is! I fear you may have a long

wait. The real test of the movement to the right will be the French

presidential elections in May, I hope we will get to talk to you

about that then. Tim Marshall, thank you.

It's been another week of heavy campaigning in the

Here at the Daily Politics we like to be helpful,

so if you haven't been following every twist and turn,

here's a reminder of some of the big campaign moments

Of course it would be possible to start from scratch,

not to use one of the existing established models to negotiate

a set of trade agreements from scratch, but all the evidence

shows that that will take a very long time, many years.

What the Government is getting wrong in this dossier is to argue

that we have to do exactly the same as someone else.

The risk to the In campaign is if it's a negative,

miserable scaremongering campaign, then they will turn people off

and that is the last thing that is needed given how narrowly

balanced the opinion polls look to be across the UK.

We can sit here all afternoon debating the specifics

of a document, or documents, and I respect your

At the end of the day, I will stick by your number

and you will sit here challenging my integrity.

Look, that was agreed by an international treaty

between Britain and France a few years ago.

There is no reason at all why that should be.

You have to wonder about the timing of this particular venture.

It is all part of a project to try and scare people into

You have to ask Boris what Boris is doing.

We have to make sure these arguments take place on the issues

and the facts and the arguments and not on the basis of individuals.

In the end, I've got one vote, Boris has one vote.

And we're joined now from Edinburgh by former Defence Secretary

and pro-Leave campaigner Liam Fox, and from Dundee by the SNP's Europe

spokesman Stephen Gethins, who's campaigning for the UK

Welcome both. Liam Fox, you can't be surprised that Remain is using

project fear because that is what your side of the Scottish Referendum

campaign used and you won, so why wouldn't you repeat a winning

formula? Everyone knows that the negative part of campaigning is

always used because it is effective. There is also, in the debate about

the Scottish Referendum, there was also a case put for the Union, not

least the fact that we had been a country that had effectively

operated as a single unit for hundreds of years, our institutions

had grown together, our families had moved together, to the extent you

couldn't find anyone who didn't have family somewhere else across the

United Kingdom. There was a positive case put that. I'm hoping the Remain

campaign will want to put the case for project Europe, which diminishes

the ability of nation states to retain their identity. After all,

that is what ever-closer Union is all about. I was looking back at

what you said during the Referendum campaign, you would lose the

military bases, shipbuilding would be finished, the security of Denmark

and Norway would be threatened by Scottish independence. That is

reminiscent of that playbook the Prime Minister has learned and is

now using against you? Some of the issues you mention, for example if

the SNP had been outside NATO, that would have put at risk those bases

being there, that would have had an effect on the security of other

parts of Europe, the countries there accepted that as well. Maybe that is

what the Prime Minister is telling us, and maybe that is accurate? It

is based upon what we knew about policies laid out by an independent

Government, there was a reasonable assessment on the basis of that.

What I'm not clear about is when we get the thing we had yesterday about

Calais, which was a re-release of a previous flop when the French

government had already said we are not going to do that, we are not

going to break that. If you are going to have a campaign based upon

the negative elements of campaigning, they have to be

credible. Stephen Gethins, do you see, or do you feel reminiscent this

is project fear mark two? There is a lot, and as one of the scaremongers

in chief, Liam will be well aware of the arguments that were deployed and

you have gone through them. One thing that was interesting from your

package there was the interview from Nicola Sturgeon, from Monday. That

is when she set out a positive case about what Europe can do in terms of

the economy, the environment, the social policies. I think both sides

have got to learn the lessons that the project fear that was run in the

independence referendum did nobody any favours. You said the UK could

thrive outside the EU, the UK could thrive... Let me give you the quote.

The UK can thrive as an independent country outside the EU. You say on

balance you still think we should stay in, but to say we could thrive

is not exactly what the Prime Minister and your side of the

argument has been giving us? No. I think the point that I'm trying to

make there, Andrew - and I am trying to start from this basis - I hope -

we won't agree on much but maybe Liam will agree with me on this. The

UK could be successful outside the European Union just as Scotland

could be successful as an independent member state. Let's have

a debate about whether or not it is better for the UK to remain inside

the European Union and on balance, given the information and all the

facts that we have got, I think it is better that we stay as part of

the European Union. This is about having an honest debate and not

getting people switched off by the scaremongering that you saw from

Liam Fox and his colleagues, and some of the Remain campaign have

been deploying some of these tactics as well. OK. It was an appeal to

start off from that basis. Alright. It hasn't permeated through to

chunks of your campaign yet. It is early days. Liam Fox, what do you

say to that? I would like to see the whole of the debate on our

membership of the European Union go back to first principles. For me,

it's an argument about two things. First, who makes our laws in the

United Kingdom? Secondly, who controls our borders in the United

Kingdom? I think that a country that can't make its own law that can have

law applied to it from outside is not a sovereign independent country.

One of the attractive things about being outside the EU is we have

greater control over our national life and the idea that we had 72

objections to EU law in the European Council since 1996 and all have been

overruled, that is not a great democratic precedent for us. I

understand the SNP argument that the nation state they prefer is

Scotland. The nation state I prefer is the United Kingdom. Incidentedly,

that is the nation state that the Scottish people picked in the

referendum in Scotland. Indeed they did. As a Unionist, are you not

worried at the prospect if England votes to leave, and Scotland votes

to remain, but England's population means that overall the United

Kingdom has voted to leave, that you will put Scottish independence back

on the agenda again? Well, you have to think about it being possible the

other way round. You may get a narrow vote to leave in England

which is outweighed by a vote to remain in Scotland, Wales or

Northern Ireland... Should England then declare independence from

Scotland? No, I don't. You don't get politicians in England saying we

will break the Union up if we don't get the result we want. The people

in Scotland voted to be part of a Union. We have to respect the fact

that every single UK citizen will get a vote which ever part of the UK

they live in and it will have equal weight. Stephen Gethins, would your

party use that scenario, that's been much touted, of overall we vote to

leave but within that vote Scotland has voted to remain, would that, in

your view, trigger another referendum? Well, let me pick up

quickly on something that was raised there. Let's get a few facts

straight about what can be applied. I asked the House of Commons Library

to look into how many times the UK Government had voted against a

proposal since we have had a majority Conservative Government.

The answer was zero. We have a European Court to try and figure out

the rules that we agree with other member states. I want to get that

straight. Alright. Thank you for that. The question? On the

independence question, on the independence question, Andrew, look,

when this went through, I put down an amendment in Parliament that

would have prevented, would have meant Scotland, England, Northern

Ireland, Wales voting to leave in order to leave. If Scotland votes to

remain, and the rest of the United Kingdom votes to leave, you will see

a bit of a breakdown in what should be an equal partnership of nations

across these islands. Liam Fox, you enjoying the campaign? Yes, I have

one question to ask on that. We have had a lot of language which is

pretty equivocal from the SNP that if England votes to leave and

Scotland votes to remain, it may trigger a referendum. What is the

question? If they want to make it happen, will they put it in their

manifesto that if this happens, they will seek, that gives them a

mandate? Stephen Gethins? Well, hold on, we have got a referendum now -

we also voted against not having the referendum so close to these

Scottish Parliament elections so you can have a longer run-in, a proper

debate... He asked you if you would put a Scottish Referendum in your

manifesto or not? The manifesto will be published in due course. The

First Minister and other SNP politicians have made the position

very clear. Would you like to see, in the event of a scenario we have

been talking about, would you like to see a commitment to a second

referendum in your party's manifesto for the Holyrood elections? I have

not changed my mind on Scottish independence. That wasn't my

question. Would you like to see a commitment in your manifesto for

that? I want to see Scottish independence but in terms of the

European referendum I want to see a big yes as well. I have been doing

this long enough to know when my questions are not going to be

answered. Thank you. Boris Johnson's decision to campaign

for Britain to leave the EU has put him into a direct face-off

with his closest rival for the Conservative leadership -

the Chancellor George Osborne. The two rivals are now on directly

opposing sides in the referendum. And the result in June

will have a big impact on their respective chances

of taking over from David Cameron. So who's winning

the argument so far? Giles took the Daily

Politics moodbox out While they are not the only names

in the frame, there are two people who are favourites to succeed

David Cameron as Prime Minister and Tory Party leader,

George Osborne and Boris Johnson. We don't want to know

which one people favour. Which one of the two do they trust

on the eve of the EU referendum? Two people you probably recognise,

which of those two gentlemen do I don't

want to answer that. Because I do not trust

George Osborne at all. Which of these two gentlemen do

you trust most on the EU Referendum? I wouldn't trust him

with anything! You wouldn't trust George

Osborne with anything? The guy has got no experience

of the real world. He has never had a proper job

and yet he is running our economy. It has to be said, Boris

is doing rather well. Sir, you, and usually for what has

been going on, have gone Because I don't trust

the other man one inch. Which of these two gentlemen do

you trust most with the referendum? I don't know enough about it,

but just going on the personalities Who do you trust more

for the EU Referendum, I would not trust any of them

but if I had to choose, On face value I would pick

Boris Johnson, he seems to be doing this for political purposes rather

than wanting Britain One is the Chancellor

of the Exchequer, the other is the Mayor of London,

and it is fair to say that some people said they trusted neither

on the EU Referendum, but those who did make a choice

emphatically went for Boris Johnson. We've been joined by Mike Smithson

from politicalbetting.com. Welcome. If it is a vote to leave on

June 23rd, surely the betting would be overwhelmingly on Boris Johnson

to be the next leader? It would be on one of those who was part of the

Leave campaign. One of the problems that Boris has got is that within

the Conservative Party, there are a lot of doubts about his sincerity in

terms of this. He waited a long time before making his declaration known.

There are things on the record that he has been supportive of the EU in

the past. I think there is an argument developing that maybe if it

is a vote to leave, that you could see somebody who has got more pure,

that would be Michael Gove. Politicians can change their mind.

Is anybody putting any money on George Osborne? His price is easing

quite a lot. After his Budget in June/July, he was a 50% chance in

the betting, now it is about 22 Persuasion and Power in -- 22%

chance. Is there anybody else in the race when it comes to betting? There

has been a lot of interest in Michael Gove, there's been a lot of

interest in Theresa May, who was favourite... She has faded? Maybe

her decision not to join the Leave side will hurt her later on. Is it

also the case that the next Conservative Leader or Mr Cameron's

ability to hold on to the leadership to - he doesn't want to step down

until spring of 2019. His ability to do that won't depend on him voting

to remain, perhaps the size of the majority voting to remain will have

an influence on Mr Cameron's longevity? Absolutely. If it was a

small result, 5% or 6% margin, we will know that the Conservative

Party members, Conservative Party supporters, at least half of

Conservative Party MPs are on the opposite side of the argument and

they won't be tamed. The pressure will be extremely great and in that

context, it is very difficult seeing how Osborne can come through. The

only situation that Osborne can become next leader is if there is a

clear majority to remain. Is David Cameron damaged goods even

if he wins the referendum? He is completely. At the start of this

campaign there would have been a chance for him to remain, I don't

think so and I think George Osborne has no chance either. The Tories

want want another posh boy. It is ironic that Boris is Porsche, he

went to Eton and Oxford, yet he weathered better than George

Osborne. George Osborne does not connect with people the way that

Boris does. Boris is a classic man of the people, George Osborne has

not come he is an awkward person to get behind. Theresa May, I would

have thought, would have been a shoe in for the vote, for the Tories.

However, a few months ago, at the Tory party conference, she was

talking about immigration, preventing social cohesion and then

she falls into line behind Cameron. She has undermined herself. Do we

know what she thinks? I only know about the kind of shoes she wears.

If David Cameron is damaged goods even with a vote to remain, it

follows, I suggest, that George Osborne is damaged goods.

Definitely. He's part of the Cameron project and does not have any of the

easy charm, he presents himself as the Boden died of the nation, he has

that Ed Miliband quality, there's something about George Osborne that

makes people go, there is something about him don't like. There are

often discussions among people like this about who the next leader of

any particular party will be. We have these discussions and the

person who emerges turns out never to have been mentioned, it happened

with Mrs Thatcher in 1975 and it is happening in America with Donald

Trump and it happened here with Jeremy Corbyn. The Black Swan

candidate? As easy, they are all posh boys. If Cameron survives

George Osborne will have a posh job. Maybe somebody like Stephen Crabb

who doesn't have the posh background, has a similar

sensibility yet from a more normal background, he's done an impressive

brief with a job that is normally a backwater job, the Secretary of

State for Wales. Or is your money on? Michael Gove. The last time the

Tories shows a leader they had been beaten three times by Tony Blair.

They wanted someone who appeared in a double. Now they are facing Jeremy

Corbyn, nobody in the Tory party believes they will be defeated by

him. They can go for someone who actually appeals to their basic

soul. To you by Michael Gove? I like Michael Gove. I am not sure people

will like him enough to do it, a lot of his jobs come he's been checked

out of them, and people don't like him. He's not physically the right

character although I think he is the smartest guy. He's much smarter than

Boris and would be a better Prime Minister than Boris would be. We

will leave there, thank you. Now, with all the talk

of the upcoming EU Referendum you could be forgiven for forgetting

that many people will be May sees scores of local

councillors up for election, while voters in Wales,

Scotland and Northern Ireland Today Plaid Cymru begins its spring

conference. It is planning to challenge Labour in Wales.

We're joined now by the Party's leader, Leanne Wood,

Welcome back to proper macro, you have made ambitious pledges, are

they all costed? -- welcome back to The Daily Politics.

Yes, when we published a manifesto we will publish all the pledges,

which have been costed. While ambitious, they will be delivered in

the existing Welsh assembly budget. You would guarantee cancer diagnoses

in 28 days, how much would that cost? To which either that pledge we

have said that we will build three new diagnostic centres, and the cost

for that will be around ?30 million, and that would be capital

expenditure, we've got plans to increase the amount of

infrastructure and capital spending in Wales, to try to stimulator

economic activity, and so are building these diagnostic centres

will be part of that programme as well. You've got to pay to build the

hospitals and then you've got to pay for the running costs of doing these

cancer diagnoses within 28 days so how much does that all cost? We do

need extra staff in the Welsh NHS. How much? Won and other of our

pledges... I want to do this it by it, how much will this cost? The

point is, Andrew, that all our pledges are intertwined. If we want

to have more people diagnosed quicker, then we need more staff to

do that. So the extra thousand doctors and nurses will help us

deliver on the Cancer pledge. You can't separate them. I did not get

the answer, let me come onto the next one. You are pledging to hire

an additional 2000 doctors and nurses, abolish the care home

chargers and the elderly and people with dementia. How much will all

that cost every year? In a total all of our pledges amount to less than

5% of the existing watchers and prebudget. I'm sorry, Leanne Wood,

you are making these promises, it is a legitimate question to ask amateur

tour cost. I am not arguing if it is the right thing to do, I just want

to outline, how much would it cost? The doctors will cost between ?65

million and ?100 million, depending on the grades and where we are at

the time. Our policy to abolish care home charges will cost ?220 million

of the two terms of a Plaid Cymru government. These pledges have been

costed, and they will connect together to provide a position

whereby we can create a healthier Wales. You will also write off

student debt for students living and working in Wales within five years

of graduating. How much will that cost you? That policy will save

money. It will free money up to invest in our underfunded university

sector. What we have the moment is many young people leaving Wales to

go to university, and then they don't come back. With this policy we

will pay off tuition fee debt that they will have accrued a spot of

being a student when they return to Wales and pay it back into a Welsh

tax pot. That will then ensure that we have received is coming into the

country and a return on our investment. -- that we have

receiveds coming into the country. It may be in the long run, you may

be quids in overtime yet to pay off student debt is the cost in the

short-term. How much? It is not an upfront cost. The debt is paid after

they return and work in Wales. So in fact it is a cost that will come

later down the line and not in the early years. Are you going to pay

for all this within the existing budget? Would you cut other things,

will you raise taxes? We cannot raise taxes, our National Assembly

does not have the power to do that at this point in time. There will

have to be rationalisation of existing programmes. Does that mean

cut? Our education policies are designed to lift children out of

poverty. It is a scandal that one third of the children living in

Wales live in poverty. We know that education is potentially a route out

of poverty. So we need to look at these policies as a whole. What are

you going to cut to pay for these promises? There are a number of

existing anti-poverty programmes that can be re-rationalised and

reapplied, and we see our education policies as part of the anti-poverty

agenda. All right. You position yourself as the second party of

Wales, the alternative to a Labour government in Cardiff. But the fact

is, you got fewer votes than Ukip at the general election, and you lost

seats in the Welsh assembly and you could easily come forth in these

elections. In May people in Wales have a choice as to whether or not

they want to carry on with another five years of a Labour government,

and remember we have had 17 years of Labour running public services in

Wales now, all to do something completely different. And what I

have done with my team is put together a fantastic programme of

government, we've got a very strong team of candidates, and so we will

be presenting ourselves as an alternative government to people in

Wales in May. And it is a matter for them in that election whether or not

they want to take that option whether they want to continue with

another five-year is of the Labour Party. Thank you. You've got a very

friendly squirrel behind your! Clearly you are attracting the

animal vote! Thank you for joining us. Leanne Wood from the Plaid Cymru

conference in Llanelli. The race for the White House moved

up one gear this week, Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton both moving

decisively ahead of their rivals. Mrs Clinton even more so than Mr

Trump. Yesterday the former Republican presidential candidate

Mitt Romney, remember that he stood against Barack Obama in 2012,

attacked his party colleague Donald Trump, even though he got an

endorsement from him in 2012, saying he was not fit to lead the country.

Perhaps Donald Trump dominated the Republican TV debate last night.

This is a flavour of the exchanges. Here they are. What did you say

about me? I don't like you. If we nominate Tom and we will spend the

spring, the fall and the summer with the Republican nominee a fraud

trial. Muggy it's a minor civil case! Donald, learn not to

interrupt! Count to ten! He is trying to con people into giving him

their vote like he can't these people into giving him their money.

The real con artist is Senator Marco Rubio, who was elected in Florida

and has the worst voting record in the US Senate. How do you answer

Mitt Romney? He was a failed candidate. He should have beaten

President Obama easily. He failed miserably and was an embarrassment

to everyone including the Republican party. Look at these hands, have a

small hands? And he referred to my hands, if they are small, something

else must be small. I guarantee you, there's no problem! And got a policy

question feel, so. Lets see if he answers it. Don't worry, little

Marco, I well! -- I will! It looks like the only thing that

can stop Donald Trump will be a brokered convention. If it is Trump

versus Mrs Clinton, will she win? Yes and buy a bigger margin than

President Obama did in 2012. A lot of people will vote for Hillary,

even if they did not want her there particularly, they will prefer

having her to him. There's just time before we go

to find out the answer to our quiz. After a major overhaul of its tax

structure Facebook is set to pay millions of pounds more in tax

in the UK. But how much corporation tax did it

pay in 2014? Was it a) Four thousand pounds b)

Forty thousand pounds c) Four million pounds or d)

Forty million pounds So Carole, Stephen -

what's the correct answer? ?4000? The correct answer. Good man.

Less than advertised on Facebook, so they were quids in.

Thanks to Carole, Stephen and all my guests.

I'll be back on Sunday with the Sunday Politics

I hope you can join me them. BBC One, Sunday morning.

We are told that OJ Simpson IS in that car,

Do you think he did it? She was terrified of him.