03/03/2016 Daily Politics


03/03/2016

Lord Finkelstein joins Andrew Neil, as they look ahead to what might be in the forthcoming budget with Paul Johnson from the IFS and Labour shadow city minister Richard Burgon.


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Faslane Trident, and the future of the BBC. The First Minister

:00:00.:00:00.

referring to bright young journalists. 23 isn't bad.

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your subsidies? Do you want money from the British government, and

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then you can lobby the British government on how they spend it? I

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understand that you would spend it in a better way. But it is not a

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saving. Well, it is a saving, because you are talking about the

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match funding and mentioned and the strings you have. Of course we are

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going to spend it. Whole point of the Leave campaign is that we will

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have this money that we are giving to the European Union to spend at

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home way we want. Let me welcome our viewers in Scotland who have been

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watching First Minister's Questions in Edinburgh. You now join us in an

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argument of figures for the remaining and leave campaign. What

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do you make of it? There are obviously costs to being in the

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European Union. But basic economics suggests that if you reduced tariffs

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and you reduce non-trade tariff barriers, precisely the things that

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Boris Johnson complained about, that he couldn't change the cab window on

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lorries, that is in order that everybody else doesn't and we can

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sell our goods across Europe. Alimentary economics suggests that

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we will make money out of that. All of us will have a view as to whether

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or not the exchange we make in which we have more influence on what the

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continent does and they have more influence on us is a worthwhile

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exchange. Unfortunately, lots of these figures shine no light on

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anything, because people don't know exactly what the dimensions are. But

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if you ask me, elementary market economics suggests, as Harold

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Macmillan and every conservative Prime Minister has argued since

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1961, that if you have a free market across Europe with a larger internal

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market, it will make people better off. I believe that our tolerance,

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social cohesion and international peace depends on our prosperity and

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it is a worthwhile deal. Jack Straw. I beg your pardon, Will Straw.

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Stuart Rose has said nothing will happen if we came out of Europe in

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the next five years. There will be no change, he said. What happened to

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a decade of uncertainty? He was asked about that again yesterday by

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Steve Baker, one of the members of the committee and a prominent

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campaigner to leave. And he clarified his remarks and said, what

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I was saying was that the lights would not go out the day afterwards,

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but you would start to get effects. He said there would be absolutely no

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change. You are quoting something he said some months ago. Yesterday, he

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clarified his remarks. Since he joined the campaign, there has been

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a series of economic studies put out by HSBC and Morgan Stanley saying we

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would fall into recession. On the question of wages, it is not a good

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idea to give each individual more wages unless their productivity goes

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up, otherwise we will have lots of unemployment. Stuart Rose has been a

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brilliant chair so far. The important point he was making guest

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today and that we are making is that you can argue about the figures, but

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the benefits of being in the EU out whether costs. We cannot judge that

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unless we argue about the figures! But the figures we are arguing about

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our ten times larger than the cost figure. Even if we were out, the

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balance would be on our side. We will leave it there.

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Yesterday, the Government responded to what has become Parliament's most

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popular petition, which saw 800,000 people calling for the meningitis B

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vaccine to be offered to all children under 11.

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At present, it's only to be offered to children in the first year

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But the Department of Health has rejected the call, saying it's

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following expert advice and that extending the vaccination

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Well, one MP raised the issue at Prime Minister's Questions

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and Giles is with her on College Green.

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I am indeed. It has to be said, 815,000 yesterday is a huge number.

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It is the most supported petition ever. I suspect a lot of parents

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simply think it would be great to save more children's lives. Helen

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Whately, you raised this in PMQs. Can the government do more? Can they

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do what the petition is asking? I raised this because not only is it

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my constituents who are the parents of a child who died, it is an awful

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disease and they have asked me to be a voice for their concerns and

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wanted to prevent other children suffering. So I want to push the

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government to look at this again. But they have looked at this. They

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followed the advice of the joint committee on vaccination and

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immunisation. And the advice was that we cannot extend this, it is

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not cost-effective. Presumably, they have little room for manoeuvre. I

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know they are looking at whether it is possible to start vaccinating

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teenagers to provide herd immunity which protects young children as

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well. There is also work going on to look at how assessments are made on

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cost effectiveness of vaccinations. I am pushing for that work to

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happen. Do you accept that cost is, however heartless, a consideration

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in these decisions? There is always somebody that falls outside this,

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however tragically. It is difficult to talk about cost when dealing with

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a disease as horrid as meningitis B, but you do have to look at the best

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way to use a limited amount of NHS resources. We have to make sure the

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money is well spent. But you could look again at the cost effectiveness

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and public awareness. Is there a problem that when you are shifting

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funding from one part of the NHS, but taking it from an area where

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there are other people saying, hang on, we need to fund this drug more

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effectively? Exactly, there are difficult choices to be made between

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treatment and vaccination and between different vaccination

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programmes. I want to see more emphasis put on prevention and

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vaccination overtreatment. Do you think the government will change his

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mind? I think the government is taking this seriously. I suspect

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that petition will go a bit higher before this gets debated.

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Now, what, if anything, do all these politicians

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We're gonna win with trade, we'll win with the military,

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we're gonna win with Obamacare. We're replacing it.

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We can cause the biggest political shock

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that has been seen in modern British political history.

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We can cause an earthquake on May 22nd

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All the pundits are calling the race for Clinton.

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That means we're probably going to win in a landslide!

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they're all examples of anti-establishment rebels

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who have upset the traditional political order.

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But are they all part of a trend, and perhaps more importantly,

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will they ever translate that impact into elected office?

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we're joined by the Guardian columnist Owen Jones.

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Danny Finkelstein is still with us. In this antiestablishment kick, it

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is true to say that there is likely to be, on the right is on the left?

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Yes, and all across the western world at the moment, there is quite

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a febrile atmosphere, with huge amounts of political discontent

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going in two directions. That is populist parties of the xenophobic

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right, and new movement on the left. And they vary enormously. In the

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United States, you have Bernie Sanders, a sceptre generic

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socialist, and then you have the demagogic plutocrat Bob Trump. In

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Britain, you have the rise of the SNP, you have the Greens and the

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court bin phenomenon and then Ukip. In France, you have the far right

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National Front. In Spain, the left-wing party Podemos. And across

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Scandinavia, anti-immigrant parties and then Greek Syriza. There is huge

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discontent and the fear of people like me is that we have not

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recovered from the last economic crisis. It is a mugs game predicting

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the next crisis, but if there is one, the danger is the likes of

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Nigel Farage and Donald Trump and Marine Le Pen in France of the

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National Front being better organised. We have already learned

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that from America, because Mr Trump is almost certainly going to be the

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Republican nominee for president. And Mr Sanders is certainly not

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going to be the Democrat nominee. I suppose with Sanders, he failed to

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inspire particularly African-Americans. I saw your column

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always insightful. I genuinely found that fascinating. You said it was

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rich college kids fuelling Bernie Sanders, but he has actually done

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well amongst low income white Americans, but failed with

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African-Americans. Certainly in the United States, as elsewhere in other

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countries, for example in Spain, you have not had a successful populist

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right movement. It has gone to the left. But Podemos will not be in the

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next government. We don't know that yet. But the fear I have is that

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unless people who believe as I would put it, in the politics of hope, get

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their act together, it will be the xenophobic right who benefit. But if

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you look at the Bernie Sanders campaign, if you look at the state

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he won in New Hampshire and so on, his support came overwhelmingly from

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white middle-class people like yourself. No. YouGov looked at New

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Hampshire, and they found among African-Americans that he failed to

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inspire them. Clinton is doing well there. But with New Hampshire, they

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found that Bernie Sanders overwhelmingly won amongst the

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lowest income brackets, was Hillary Clinton won amongst the highest

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income brackets. But the turnout amongst the lowest income white

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voters was very low. Whereas the turnout among college tutor and is,

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among white middle-class folk like yourself, was huge. Well, regardless

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of the turnout, he did a lot better amongst low-income Americans. The

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issue with the Democrats, he is doing better amongst low white

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Americans. The Democrats have failed to excite and mobilise their

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existing supporters in the way Donald Trump outs. Donald Trump's

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supporters are often Americans who are hurting. Their wages have been

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falling. This is not about it being a personality cult. Anybody on the

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left, regardless of whether you are going to dismiss middle-class

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students, actually, people who go to university who you call middle-class

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are often people struggling with jobs who are lacking a secure

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future. You cannot pin an election on them alone. Isn't it true that

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everywhere you look on both sides of the Atlantic and on both sides of

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the Channel, the mainstream is under attack, and in some places losing

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power? In some places, that is true. But one thing those four have in

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common is that none of them have won power and I don't think they will.

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But they have in other places. Syriza has won in Greece. The hard

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right has won in Poland. There is a very strange government taking over

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in Croatia. They are doing well in Finland and Sweden. I acknowledge

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that we are seeing something real, and these people represent real

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change. Ukip scoring 12% was significant, but I don't think it is

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just the new revolt against the elite. Firstly, we have always had

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revolts against the elite. When Spencer Percival was assassinated in

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1812, people cheered in Parliament Square. That was how his wife found

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out he was dead. There has always been hatred for establishments. But

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traditional Labour and Conservative, right and love politics, which have

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managed to hold together liberal and affluent people with less well off

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people who have security concerns, those are being pulled apart by

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various economic features which we would agree on. For example, the

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fact that robotics and globalisation are suppressing the wages of

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unskilled workers, and they feel more insecure and they are turning

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to populist movements particularly as they revolt. So you agree with

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him? Not quite, because it still remains the case that political

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success in the main lies with getting coalitions that bring those

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groups together. And the revolts against booze parties which have

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always existed have become greater and pulled those coalitions apart.

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But that will not produce electoral victory. It is true to say that the

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centre-left and the centre-right honour under assault almost

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everywhere you look. Very much so. Part of what we are seeing is a

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crisis of traditional social democracy, because the traditional

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bases has fragmented. The end of the Cold War and the thankful demise of

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Soviet totalitarianism was spun as the end of history so that was seen

:13:36.:13:41.

as not just the Revolutionary Communist left, but even social

:13:42.:13:45.

democracy was doomed. Then there was the financial crash, because you had

:13:46.:13:49.

social Democrats supporting austerity. And if you are a Social

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Democrats and you don't believe in public investment, what do you have

:13:53.:13:56.

left to say? In large part, you had a collapse in vision and a

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fragmentation of the base. You talked about the primaries in the

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United States. They have always disproportionately attracted

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affluent voters, which is why it is difficult to draw conclusions.

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People in the middle and working class people. It is important not to

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dismiss... I am very happy to have Owen Jones defends the middle class

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on the Daily Politics. That is why I'm here! Ever since racist Southern

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states have had several rights, the Liberals have struggled to gain

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power. Yesterday, shadow chancellor

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John McDonnell held the latest featuring members of his

:14:54.:14:55.

economic advisory panel. They're designed to open up

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Labour's polic making They're designed to open up

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Labour's policy-making and break away from

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"Westminster-dominated views" The speaker was the Nobel-prize

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winning economist Joseph Stiglitz, and we sent our Adam along to ask

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some penetrating questions. in fact, the Shadow Chancellor's

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old university, to find out what it's like on his

:15:20.:15:23.

New Economics tour. Today's special guest,

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Professor Joseph Stiglitz, Nobel Prize winner and

:15:26.:15:26.

according to Wikipedia, the fifth most influential economist

:15:27.:15:29.

in the world. He talked for really quite a long

:15:30.:15:38.

time, but the gist is that the 1950s was the golden age of capitalism,

:15:39.:15:41.

especially in the US, and that inequality has been getting

:15:42.:15:44.

much worse ever since. The median income of

:15:45.:15:48.

a full-time male worker today is today the same

:15:49.:15:50.

as it was 40 years ago. That means that for four decades,

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young men, men have not seen any

:15:56.:15:57.

increase in their income. This in a country that says every

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generation is going to be doing He reckons these two

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deserve the blame for helping the rich to get

:16:03.:16:15.

richer, in the hope that

:16:16.:16:16.

everyone would benefit. If Reagan and Thatcher had gone,

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if Reagan had come to the American people and said, "I have this

:16:20.:16:23.

great idea for reform, I have this great reform, the result

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of which is that the economy is going to grow more slowly,

:16:26.:16:29.

but don't worry about it. All the growth that does occur

:16:30.:16:34.

will go to the top 10%. And if you happen to be so poorly

:16:35.:16:42.

informed that you choose to be in the bottom 90%, you're

:16:43.:16:45.

going to be stagnant. If you choose to be in the bottom

:16:46.:16:48.

50%, you will see your income

:16:49.:16:51.

decline". Would the American people have

:16:52.:16:55.

voted for that idea? And he has written a whole book

:16:56.:16:58.

about how the rules of the economy One of the things that have gone

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wrong in our economy is the growth Firms are focused

:17:03.:17:08.

on the next quarter. are focused on the next

:17:09.:17:15.

nanosecond. Now, you can't invest for long

:17:16.:17:21.

in people, technology and machines for long term economic growth

:17:22.:17:24.

if you focus on the nanosecond It was very high fibre stuff,

:17:25.:17:26.

for a fairly highbrow audience. Are you guys Butch and Sundance,

:17:27.:17:37.

Holmes and Watson, Batman and Robin? We are trying to raise

:17:38.:17:48.

the level of debate. What's interesting is

:17:49.:17:50.

that the quality of the discussions that have been

:17:51.:17:56.

taking place have been astounding. Young people in particular have been

:17:57.:17:58.

flocking to these meetings, with a real understanding

:17:59.:18:00.

of society, and buzzing with ideas The prof is heading back

:18:01.:18:02.

to his ivory tower. Following in his footsteps

:18:03.:18:10.

on Labour's tour, the soon-to-be ex-economics

:18:11.:18:11.

editor of Channel 4 News, Paul Mason, and the former

:18:12.:18:16.

Greek finance minister, And we're joined now

:18:17.:18:18.

by another member of Labour's She's Professor Anastasia

:18:19.:18:26.

Nesvetailova and she's director of the Political Economy Research

:18:27.:18:29.

Centre at City University in London. Welcome to the programme. Can you

:18:30.:18:45.

give us any idea yet what kind of policies the committee is suggesting

:18:46.:18:50.

Mr Corbyn and Mr McDonnell should adopt. The concrete content of

:18:51.:18:58.

policies is still being discussed and developed what I can say is we

:18:59.:19:08.

are on the same page in developing a more strategic role for the state.

:19:09.:19:15.

And for economic system is able and has the resources to withstand

:19:16.:19:21.

short-term and long-term economic risks and uncertainties. Give me an

:19:22.:19:24.

example of how you would do that. There are two very tangible risks to

:19:25.:19:32.

the UK Connolly, the short one is Brexit, that could lead to a lot of

:19:33.:19:38.

losses and very little gains. -- the UK economy, the long-term danger is

:19:39.:19:42.

a financial bank down coming from the part of the financial system

:19:43.:19:48.

that is in the so-called shadows, the shadow bank system. The problem

:19:49.:19:56.

is that although there is an understanding that these are risks,

:19:57.:20:02.

and the overall economic environment globally is very pessimistic for

:20:03.:20:08.

2016, monetary and fiscal authorities don't have the resources

:20:09.:20:12.

to help the economy grow through a potential meltdown. Is the advisory

:20:13.:20:19.

committee united in urging the Labour Party to keep Britain in the

:20:20.:20:28.

European Union? Yes, we are in the same page. I personally would have

:20:29.:20:31.

liked to have seen stronger engagement in the wider, with the

:20:32.:20:35.

country, about the risks and losses of Brexit. I saw that Joseph

:20:36.:20:43.

Stiglitz, who we had there, he was saying that if the EU signed up to

:20:44.:20:54.

TTIP, the free trade agreement that the US and EU are in the process of

:20:55.:20:57.

negotiating that have not yet agreed, the UK should consider TTIP.

:20:58.:21:03.

Correct. There is a hypothetical sentence and that particular

:21:04.:21:07.

statement, but I profoundly disagree with Nobel prizewinner Joseph

:21:08.:21:12.

Stiglitz on that. You are allowed to! Thank you. I think it is a

:21:13.:21:16.

misreading of the European project is, that the value of the UK economy

:21:17.:21:20.

in this total big market and bigger construction is, and it is severely

:21:21.:21:26.

underestimating the costs, the risks and the consequences of Brexit. It

:21:27.:21:31.

is a real danger. Even with TTIP, a North Atlantic free trade

:21:32.:21:34.

arrangement, you would still urge that we stay in? Yes. Is the Labour

:21:35.:21:42.

leadership open to new ideas, are they soaking up everything?

:21:43.:21:47.

Eminently so, eminently so, the format of the meetings varies. There

:21:48.:21:52.

are numbers of parliament sitting there and it is an open discussion

:21:53.:21:55.

on a variety of topics, then there are some more specialised topical

:21:56.:22:00.

debates or analysis of particular issues, and there are also public

:22:01.:22:05.

events, which take part, in terms of educating the public. Which is one

:22:06.:22:10.

of the things we saw. Exactly, that was the first of them. Speaking just

:22:11.:22:15.

for yourself, not the advisory committee, what is the one policy of

:22:16.:22:19.

all others you would urge Labour to adopt? Strategic role for the state,

:22:20.:22:27.

investment in people and infrastructure, for balancing the

:22:28.:22:31.

financial economic divide. That is an aspiration, it is not a policy.

:22:32.:22:39.

It is, but with this aspiration comes a concrete set of

:22:40.:22:42.

institutions. And you have that to give to Labour? Together, yes. When

:22:43.:22:50.

will we get a report? You will have to ask them! We will, Professor,

:22:51.:22:51.

thank you. Now, if you were worrying

:22:52.:22:54.

that we haven't mentioned the EU referendum in the last

:22:55.:22:57.

few minutes, fear not. We're going to take a look at some

:22:58.:22:59.

new research by the pollster YouGov which claims to rank every part

:23:00.:23:02.

of the country according to how much it's in favour of, or against,

:23:03.:23:05.

our continued membership Ellie, who dreamed of being

:23:06.:23:08.

a weather presenter, before accepting

:23:09.:23:14.

defeat and becoming a political correspondent, is here

:23:15.:23:18.

with the Eurosceptic forecast They didn't even trust me with one

:23:19.:23:29.

of those clicking things, but there were go.

:23:30.:23:34.

So let's have a look at where the winds of euroscepticism

:23:35.:23:36.

- and of europhilia - are blowing across the UK,

:23:37.:23:39.

according to the pollster YouGov, which has based its work

:23:40.:23:41.

There's a real storm of criticism of our continued membership

:23:42.:23:46.

of the EU here in the London borough of Havering, which the research

:23:47.:23:49.

named the most eurosceptic place in Britain.

:23:50.:23:51.

But Havering goes against the trend for London, as five of the ten most

:23:52.:23:54.

europhile boroughs are in the capital.

:23:55.:23:56.

They are Lambeth, Camden, Southwark, Hackney and Brent.

:23:57.:24:00.

According to YouGov, there's a real hotspot in favour

:24:01.:24:02.

of membership in Ceredigion in rural West Wales,

:24:03.:24:04.

that's been named the most pro-EU place in the country.

:24:05.:24:07.

It is followed by Aberdeen and Stirling, and, elsewhere

:24:08.:24:09.

in Scotland, West Dunbartonshire and the city of Edinburgh feature

:24:10.:24:12.

On the Eurosceptic side, all of the areas most likely

:24:13.:24:20.

There're a strong band of them here in the South East,

:24:21.:24:26.

with Peterborough, Bracknell Forest, and the coastal town

:24:27.:24:27.

of Southend-on-Sea all on the satellite.

:24:28.:24:32.

That Eurosceptic breeze is also to be keenly felt on the northwest

:24:33.:24:35.

coast in Blackpool, as well as in nearby Blackburn,

:24:36.:24:37.

then down the road a little bit in sunny Warrington,

:24:38.:24:39.

South Tyneside is in for some spells of euroscepticism, as is the borough

:24:40.:24:45.

Andrew, back to you for some more sunshine.

:24:46.:24:57.

We always have sunshine! Thanks, Delhi.

:24:58.:25:00.

And Joe Twyman of the research firm YouGov is here now.

:25:01.:25:05.

What can you tell us about the differing demographics, by and large

:25:06.:25:13.

of the in campaign and the out campaign, people who are likely to

:25:14.:25:17.

vote either way? We know there are some groups who are particularly

:25:18.:25:21.

likely to lean one way or the other. It won't be a surprise to hear that

:25:22.:25:25.

Guardian readers wish to stay, and Daily Mail and express leaders --

:25:26.:25:32.

readers wish to stay. But the demographics, it is to do with age.

:25:33.:25:36.

If you are a younger person, particularly 18 to 30, you are

:25:37.:25:39.

significantly more likely to vote to stay in, and if you are an older

:25:40.:25:43.

person, particularly over the age of 60, who are more likely to wish to

:25:44.:25:47.

leave. Then there are also things with education for instance. On the

:25:48.:25:52.

map, when you look in detail, you can see that university towns are

:25:53.:25:56.

far more likely to stay in, because university graduates are far more

:25:57.:26:00.

likely to want to stay, whereas people with fewer educational

:26:01.:26:02.

qualifications, they are more likely to want to go. Is there an element

:26:03.:26:09.

of establishment in, antiestablishment out? Yes, by no

:26:10.:26:13.

means overwhelmingly the case, there are still those who are conservative

:26:14.:26:16.

with a small sea, and with a large sea, who wished to lead and that is

:26:17.:26:21.

not a surprise. But there is a group of people -- who wish to leave. But

:26:22.:26:27.

the people who left behind. You see that in some of the towns, Southend

:26:28.:26:31.

and Clacton. Absolutely, yes. We will come back to that, thank you.

:26:32.:26:33.

The One o'clock News is starting over on BBC One now.

:26:34.:26:38.

I am back tonight on This Week on BBC One with Alan Johnson,

:26:39.:26:41.

Esther McVey, Owen Jones, Helen Lewis, along with

:26:42.:26:43.

the Simpsons' Harry Shearer talking about the Oscars

:26:44.:26:45.

Live games and highlights on BBC television.

:26:46.:27:13.

Listen to match commentaries on BBC Radio 5 live.

:27:14.:27:17.

Video highlights and all the latest news

:27:18.:27:21.

Conservative peer Lord Finkelstein joins Andrew Neil, as they look ahead to what might be in the forthcoming budget with Paul Johnson from the IFS and Labour shadow city minister Richard Burgon. Plus Guardian columnist Owen Jones debates the rise of the political outsider and YouGov's Joe Twyman reveals which part of the UK is the most eurosceptic.


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