04/03/2016 Daily Politics


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Afternoon, folks. Welcome to the Daily Politics.


Iain Duncan Smith lays into campaigners for Britain to stay


in the EU, accusing the Remain camp of spin and smear tactics


European leaders holds talks on the migrant crisis,


after Donald Tusk - the President of the European Council -


told potential migrants "do not come to Europe".


Plaid Cymru hold their Spring Conference in Llanelli,


with a claim that Wales is crying out for change after 17 years


The Party's leader, Leanne Wood, joins us live.


And the US Republican Party turns on itself as their former presidential


candidate says Donald Trump is not fit to run the country - a claim


Trump naturally dismissed in last night's TV debate.


He referred to my hands - if they're small, something else


I guarantee you there's no problem, I guarantee.


Not up there with the Lincoln-Douglas debates(!)


All that in the next hour, and with us for the whole


of the programme today, Stephen Bush, from the New Statesman,


and Carole Malone, who writes for the Sunday Mirror.


Let's start with the latest intervention in the EU Referendum


campaign from the Work and Pensions Secretary,


Iain Duncan Smith, who is campaigning for the UK


Writing in the Daily Mail this morning, Mr Duncan Smith doesn't


hold any punches saying, "The Remain campaign's case seems


almost wholly based on what they describe


This case has in whole or in part become characterised by spin,


Mr Duncan Smith also accused the Remain campaign -


backed by most of his Cabinet colleagues -


of making "desperate and unsubstantiated" claims.


In the last hour, David Cameron has been making a speech


at the Scottish Conservative's Spring Conference in Edinburgh.


He didn't respond to Iain Duncan Smith directly,


We will be safer in a reformed Europe. It is there that we have


areas of co-operation, like the European Arrest Warrant through


which we have extradited 7,000 foreign suspects. We need to keep


this co-operation up, to keep our people safe.


Is the nastiness, inter-Tory nastiness worse than you thought it


would be? Oh yes. I can't believe Cameron's naivety in his thinking


that the stuff he is spinning isn't going to be exposed. What he did


yesterday with President Hollande was shameful, getting a foreign


President to put propaganda out about what is going to happen. We


are talking about taking the borders down. When Cameron and everyone else


knows that's got nothing to do with the EU. So, I just - it is his


naivety that I don't get. I think the British people are reacting very


badly to it. They think he's treating them like this, stupid, and


the more he says this stuff and the more he is exposed as rubbish, it


puts people one step nearer... Do you think he is driving them against


what he wants to happen? People who are undecided are walking towards


the door! Isn't one of the weaknesses of the Prime Minister's


position, he paints the picture of apocalypse now if we were to leave.


Why would you have ever said, if I can't get some minor changes on


welfare, I may well decide we are going to leave. It is not credible?


I don't know. We know David Cameron never wanted to leave and he was


forced into the position he is in now. But also the Prime Minister has


succeeded in saying one thing about the deficit and saying a different


thing five years later at the election. People trust Cameron. I


don't think the complexity of that decision is a problem. You think -


the Tory private polling suggests that Mr Cameron has some weight in


this debate and more than with just Conservative voters? David Cameron


is a hugely popular figure and he is a trusted figure. People think he


has the right idea for the country. There is this demographic, the Stay


In campaign call it The Leave it to Dave voters. It would what? The


Common Agricultural Policy would put ?200 billion into the agriculture


sector... ?200 billion? Sorry, ?20 billion. If we were to vote to


leave, we would instigate a system of British farm subsidies like we


had before we joined? You are immediately asked where would it


come from? It would come from the money we send to Brussels. That is


where Cameron wants the argument to be. That is a terrain which is only


disastrous for Leave. There is a danger for Mr Cameron if it


continues in this level of unpleasantness within the


Conservative Party, that even if he wins on June 23rd, there will be a


growing mood to say, right, it is time for you to step down? When he


came back from Brussels with the deal, everyone thought that if we


did vote to go, Cameron would be in charge. You say people trust him.


They did then. I don't think they trust him now. With everything he


says, the spin and it's exposed as being wrong, I think people distrust


him. I think now whether we leave or whether we stay, he is totally


discredited. I will fact-check your ?20 billion figure. I multiply that


by four or five, it is ?10 billion. But we shall see. That was a mental


fact-check there. I have to do my homework instead.


After a major overhaul of its tax structure,


Facebook is set to pay millions of pounds more in tax in the UK.


But how much corporation tax did it pay in 2014?


Was it a) ?4,000 b) ?40,000, c) ?4 million, or d) ?40 million?


At the end of the show, Stephen and Carole will give us


They have been studying the tax returns through the night(!)


Now, it's been one of the least violent weeks in Syria


since the civil war began there in 2011, but that


Hundreds of thousands of that country's citizens,


along with migrants from across North Africa


and the Middle East, continue to make their way to Europe.


Last Saturday a "cessation of hostilities" was agreed


for Syria, brokered by the United States and Russia.


It's more formal than a truce but falls short of a full ceasefire.


Neither so-called Islamic State or the al-Nusra Front,


an al-Qaeda-linked group, are part of the agreement,


so military manoeuvres in the country have continued.


The UK and France have complained that the Syrian government,


backed by the Russians, has bombed areas where alleged


moderate forces are intermingled with jihadist fighters.


Today the leaders of Germany, the UK, and France will take part


in a conference call with Vladimir Putin to discuss


This week the senior Nato commander in Europe claimed


the Russian President was "weaponising" the migration


More than 130,000 migrants from Africa and the Middle East have


That's after more than 1.2 million made the journey last year.


A serious flashpoint at the moment is the Greece-Macedonian border,


where thousands of migrants have massed on the Greek side seeking


Today European Council President Donald Tusk will meet


Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan to try to agree a joint


It's been mooted that a deal would involve non-Syrian migrants


who reach the Greek islands being sent to Turkey.


Quite a lot of them have come from there in the first place.


We can talk now to our correspondent, Danny Savage,


who is on the border between Greece and Macedonia.


What's happening where you are? Andrew, I estimate there is probably


10,500 people here if not more. We are on the Greek side of the border


and people have been trickling through over the last few days. I


think only about 150 people went through the border gate last night


into Macedonia and upwards on the migrant trail. More than that are


arriving by the hour, so it is really not easing the situation at


this camp, where the infrastructure is creaking at the sides, this was a


place built for 1,500 people, loads more than that here now. The queues


you can see behind me are more new arrivals trying to register and get


a place in that never-ending queue, and also the queue for food here,


too, but you have to wait four hours in line to get some grub. The


pictures behind you look quite horrendous. I take it from what you


say that if only a trickle are being allowed through into Macedonia, and


yet a lot more are coming in from Turkey, through the islands and up


the Greek mainland, that the scenes behind you can only get worse? Yeah


because the way it is working at the moment is that people don't want to


be in any other transit migrant camp in Greece because they feel then


they are not in the queue for moving on towards where they want to get


to, which is Germany for most of them. They all want to get here. If


they are in Athens or elsewhere in northern Greece, they think that


they are not going to get over the border at all. There is all these


unsubstantiated rumours, among the migrants, that the borders are going


to close completely at some point, so the desperation to get across is


very real. And the conditions here therefore are very poor because


people are pitching up, they are getting a tent sometimes, they are


then sleeping here in the open, it rained last night, loads of them


have moved on to the railway lines here to camp with great big freight


trains going through because the ground is drier, but the people are


here because they want to be near the front of the queue and if they


are elsewhere, they don't feel as though they are in that queue. Am I


right in thinking this must be another, if you have this huge


backlog happening right behind you now, more on their way, others may


decide when they hit Greece, I'm not going to go, I will stay in the


south until I see what is going to happen. This is a potential huge


crisis for the Greek government, for Greece, a country that is not


exactly in a great position to handle this? No, we know the Greeks


aren't well off at an international level. We have heard from the UN in


the last few days that this is an impending humanitarian crisis. It


depends who you talk to here. MSF and Save the Children would say we


are already in a humanitarian crisis. The overriding sounds and


smells of this site - the sound that I always hear walking around this


campsite - people coughing, kids crying. It is like a camping holiday


from hell here for most of these people. Some of them stay well, but


particularly the young ones who don't have a good immune system,


they are getting ill. Children, particularly, and women make up 60%


of the people here. It is a desperate situation for them. If


there is some glimmer of hope to move on, it makes them feel better.


That hope does seem to be ebbing away. This is a camp where hope is


fading for lots of people. Thank you for joining us. Take care. Danny


Savage on the Macedonian-Greek border, on the Greek side of the


border there. Of course the main reason


for the huge numbers of migrants arriving on the EU's southern


borders is the ongoing conflict Last week world powers agreed


a ceasefire in the Syrian civil war, but coalition and Russian airstrikes


against Islamic State in Syria Our defence correspondent,


Jonathan Beale, is in Baghdad Bring us up to speed on the state of


the Iraqi government's push-back now against Islamic State. We went first


this week to see British troops among other coalition forces


training the Iraqi army. There is no doubt about it, they are more


confident because they are getting that support from air strikes above


them and also getting equipment. For example the British government has


given Iraqi army mine detectors used in Afghanistan and passing on


British soldiers's experience from Northern Ireland and Afghanistan.


They seemed upbeat. They now talking about an offensive on Mosul, which


is the Iraq headquarters for Islamic State, whether caliphate has been


claimed. The person leading this organisation claimed it. The


coalition say they have trained 18,000 Iraqi army recruits. They


need a force of around two and 5000. We've also heard that US special


forces have moved in, the. Force one week ago snatched a high value


target, presumably to get intelligence of what's going on in


city. -- the Delta Force one. We went to Samarra where they claim to


have cleared the ground, much of it is desert, and Islamic State is


still launching offensives. For example when we arrived here they


are still in Fallujah come in Anbar province, and they launched an


offensive, people will remember ten of IB Graber because of the US


prisoner abuse but the town of Abu Ghraib. They cannot keep casualties


but the cause chaos. Islamic State are laying mines everywhere. We saw


them in the field yesterday where we were with the Iraqi army, it killed


a lot of livestock, not people coming and they are using those


devices and truck bombs, we saw the effect of one hour strike on truck


bombers before they could strike. Yet when it comes to the urban


fighting places like Mosul and Fallujah it will be much harder than


taking ground in the desert. Jonathan, when they do take ground


back from Islamic State, are they able to hold it and will things then


quieten down, or is that the risk that these are largely Shia forces


coming into Sunni territory, will we then be in a tense stand-off between


the Shia and Sunni forces? There is no doubt that the Shi'ite militia


are paying a big role in the clearing up operation, rusher the


Shia. For example, the Shia population in the city, protesting


about government corruption, led by October side, who has popped up


again, that sort of division hasn't gone away and is still a problem.


The bigger problem for what is happening on the ground, and we saw


this yesterday is, when they take on Islamic State often they just


disappear in these open ground areas. They melt into the


background. They were holding a lot of young man, trying to question


them, their links with Islamic State but it is easy for them to go back


for example to places like Fallujah, their strongholds, and to dig in, to


make sure that they will carry on the fight. I think it is very hard


to say with confidence that you have defeated Islamic State in an area


when a lot of them have just fled and yes, there are a few truck


bombers, suicide bombers, who have lost their lives but that was not


much evidence of taking prisoners and holding them. Jonathan, in


Baghdad, thank you. And joining us now in the studio


is the foreign affairs analyst, Welcome back to the programme. Let


me come back to this business of the zillion ceasefire, although


cessation of hostilities is a better term. What is Vladimir Putin's aim,


what is he up to? He's already achieved some of his aims, he has


told the world that he doesn't abandon his allies, he has made sure


that the power in Syria will keep his support, it is the only Russian


warm water port, he's got rusher into the Middle East 30 years after


its influence waned there, so if you leave morality out of it he is doing


quite well and has put himself in front and centre of any of the


negotiations in the last bit of the jigsaw. Today David Cameron will be


on the phone to him and so will Angela Merkel and Francois Hollande,


and they will say, come on, you have to help us solve this war because of


conditions in the refugees camp. He will say that he's happy to help,


now what about the sanctions that you have on Ukraine and Russia? It


will come full circle. He knows there is a perfect storm gathering,


use part of the storm and he's one of the very few people able to blow


away the clouds. One of the fallouts of this is the massive European


crisis. Of course not all the migrants come from Syria, get a fair


chunk are. Some are coming from Iraq and Afghanistan as well. Does the


cessation of hostilities helped to reduce the flow, or should we be


planning for a continued flow of migrants from the war zone areas for


the foreseeable future? Absolutely the latter. My mathematics puts


another half a million having left Turkey, Iraq, and Syria, and


probably having reached Europe, my mathematics says half a million


before we vote in the referendum. They may not be in the UK but they


will be on our TV screens that will affect the vote. What you saw on the


screen in Macedonia will be tripled, quadrupled. Because the war in Syria


will not stop. It's simply initiative for the time being. I'm


glad you brought in Jonathan from Iraq because this is part of the


perfect storm, especially Mosul. I would add to that Afghanistan,


Eritrea, still a basket case because a sizeable proportion of the people


coming from Eritrea. Some of those in the Calais camp from there. I


would add to the Brexit to that, the fact that Greece is in such


financial turmoil, the whole thing is coming together. This spring,


130,000 people have already made it here, mostly to Greece. What the


Macedonians have done, this is why there is no European unity, and


hopefully we can get onto Angela Merkel and Francois Hollande, last


week the Austrians got together with seven Balkan countries completely


separately from the EU and did their own eight nation deal. What you are


seeing in Macedonia, this bottleneck growing and it will grow bigger and


bigger, it's because the eight countries said they would


fingerprint everyone coming through. That takes time. And they will check


the documents, and check the people. They do that because then they know


that only 8100 people every day get through. If 1000 every day are


coming, and 80 a day going through, you do the maths. Angela Merkel has


one plan which has already been rejected, she's coming back to it


next week, plan a, that is we need to parcel them out, you take


100,000... And yet those eight countries of rejected it, so have


hungry, the Scandinavians and Britain, and Poland. And is going to


be a referendum. We know the result. They will take 2000 because they


will lose the referendum if they say we don't want it. Angela Merkel has


plan a and that has been rejected. I understand that she is coming back


to it next week having talked to the Turkish people, which is why Donald


Tusk is in Ankara today, and they are going to offer Turkey a lot of


money and Turkey will want a lot of things back and at the moment I


don't think you can get that agreement between Turkey and EU


which is accelerated access into the European Union, visas for all


Turkish workers wanting to come here, that's 8 million people.


Imagine what that will do to the Brexit vote. So it keeps coming


round in a circle. I do not think the EU can offer Turkey what it once


and I don't think Turkey will give the EU what it wants. At the


instigation of Angela Merkel, Germany took in 2 million migrants


last year. Is it credible that she will be able to convince Germany to


take on another million this year? This is where the regional elections


this month in Germany are important. How much will she be damaged? She


has been damaged. It's funny, there's reality and this perception


and emotion and there's politics. All different things. Angela Merkel


knows the publishing of Germany is declining and that they need 1


million people yet the German people wanted in an orderly fashion of


their choice. So they do need more people to come but the German


electorate don't want that, and consequently they will go to the


right, there were 900 attacks on asylum seekers in Germany last year.


We think it is bad here? Two state elections this month. What if all


the politicians across the European Union see that all the electorate is


turning to the right, which is mostly happening? They will turn to


the right and they want open borders, they will put up fences


which will do nothing for the bottleneck. So the key is to go back


to Syria and Iraq and solve those wars and good luck with that! When


you listen to Tim describe what is the likely backdrop to the


referendum, between now and June 23, if you want to vote to remain, you


could not wish for a worse backdrop. And the biggest threat to the Remain


side is, a body of people washing up on beaches, Europe losing control of


its borders. That is far more important to whether Britain leaves


all stays in the EU than the grumbling from the Cabinet


ministers. It is the pictures of bodies on beaches. It is whether or


not Europe can defend its periphery and it looks, troublingly, at the


moment, as if it can't. And the other thing is that they mostly men


because the women and children stay behind because of the dangers of


crossing servers and a graphic explosion waiting to happen in parts


of Europe, like China and the consequences of the child policy.


One more example that I forgot, rioting. I don't see why do you want


to see rioting in these camps down south, a thousand you can handle,


why wouldn't people right? And that is what will be on TV screens. And


that will have an effect. Sorry, Carole. It is a grim picture. I


think you'd be hard pushed, anyone who was dithering about what to do,


why would they be convinced to want to stay in Europe if we see fences


erected in countries that until now have espoused free movement? We have


seen what free movement does. It could be a problem for us whether we


are in or out, unless you want to build a fortress Europe, we will


still be in the European continent, 20 miles away from France. Although


the euro is shot, why would we want to be apart of a group where the


currency is shot, where unemployment is at an all-time high, and we are


doing pretty well,... You raise an interesting point related to the


migrant crisis. Because many of these young men, now increasingly


young man, they are coming to Europe and jobs. But they are also coming


to the continent to look for jobs in the one continent in the Western


world which is not capable of providing jobs for the young people


already here. That has to be a toxic situation. That's what I mean, the


perfect storm. It's possible Europe could have got over the 2008 crash.


It is partially recovering economically, yet that damaged it so


much. Just as it was maybe getting out of that crashed we've now


introduced this terrible war in the middle east which has placed massive


pressures, when people are facing pressure, and again I go back to


emotion. I think often people in politics only look at facts and


figures and they forget peoples emotions. People will not always had


exactly on their wallets which is the accepted wisdom and exactly on


facts and figures, they will vote on emotion. And when we see what is


happening on our borders, they will be those people will want to open


everything up and bring people in but I think that will simply result


a real turn to the right in Europe, and that means the middle will tack


to the right, and the very freedoms which make you want to welcome


people in will then be damaged. I really want a solution, Andrew, and


I'm waiting for you to tell me what it is! I fear you may have a long


wait. The real test of the movement to the right will be the French


presidential elections in May, I hope we will get to talk to you


about that then. Tim Marshall, thank you.


It's been another week of heavy campaigning in the


Here at the Daily Politics we like to be helpful,


so if you haven't been following every twist and turn,


here's a reminder of some of the big campaign moments


Of course it would be possible to start from scratch,


not to use one of the existing established models to negotiate


a set of trade agreements from scratch, but all the evidence


shows that that will take a very long time, many years.


What the Government is getting wrong in this dossier is to argue


that we have to do exactly the same as someone else.


The risk to the In campaign is if it's a negative,


miserable scaremongering campaign, then they will turn people off


and that is the last thing that is needed given how narrowly


balanced the opinion polls look to be across the UK.


We can sit here all afternoon debating the specifics


of a document, or documents, and I respect your


At the end of the day, I will stick by your number


and you will sit here challenging my integrity.


Look, that was agreed by an international treaty


between Britain and France a few years ago.


There is no reason at all why that should be.


You have to wonder about the timing of this particular venture.


It is all part of a project to try and scare people into


You have to ask Boris what Boris is doing.


We have to make sure these arguments take place on the issues


and the facts and the arguments and not on the basis of individuals.


In the end, I've got one vote, Boris has one vote.


And we're joined now from Edinburgh by former Defence Secretary


and pro-Leave campaigner Liam Fox, and from Dundee by the SNP's Europe


spokesman Stephen Gethins, who's campaigning for the UK


Welcome both. Liam Fox, you can't be surprised that Remain is using


project fear because that is what your side of the Scottish Referendum


campaign used and you won, so why wouldn't you repeat a winning


formula? Everyone knows that the negative part of campaigning is


always used because it is effective. There is also, in the debate about


the Scottish Referendum, there was also a case put for the Union, not


least the fact that we had been a country that had effectively


operated as a single unit for hundreds of years, our institutions


had grown together, our families had moved together, to the extent you


couldn't find anyone who didn't have family somewhere else across the


United Kingdom. There was a positive case put that. I'm hoping the Remain


campaign will want to put the case for project Europe, which diminishes


the ability of nation states to retain their identity. After all,


that is what ever-closer Union is all about. I was looking back at


what you said during the Referendum campaign, you would lose the


military bases, shipbuilding would be finished, the security of Denmark


and Norway would be threatened by Scottish independence. That is


reminiscent of that playbook the Prime Minister has learned and is


now using against you? Some of the issues you mention, for example if


the SNP had been outside NATO, that would have put at risk those bases


being there, that would have had an effect on the security of other


parts of Europe, the countries there accepted that as well. Maybe that is


what the Prime Minister is telling us, and maybe that is accurate? It


is based upon what we knew about policies laid out by an independent


Government, there was a reasonable assessment on the basis of that.


What I'm not clear about is when we get the thing we had yesterday about


Calais, which was a re-release of a previous flop when the French


government had already said we are not going to do that, we are not


going to break that. If you are going to have a campaign based upon


the negative elements of campaigning, they have to be


credible. Stephen Gethins, do you see, or do you feel reminiscent this


is project fear mark two? There is a lot, and as one of the scaremongers


in chief, Liam will be well aware of the arguments that were deployed and


you have gone through them. One thing that was interesting from your


package there was the interview from Nicola Sturgeon, from Monday. That


is when she set out a positive case about what Europe can do in terms of


the economy, the environment, the social policies. I think both sides


have got to learn the lessons that the project fear that was run in the


independence referendum did nobody any favours. You said the UK could


thrive outside the EU, the UK could thrive... Let me give you the quote.


The UK can thrive as an independent country outside the EU. You say on


balance you still think we should stay in, but to say we could thrive


is not exactly what the Prime Minister and your side of the


argument has been giving us? No. I think the point that I'm trying to


make there, Andrew - and I am trying to start from this basis - I hope -


we won't agree on much but maybe Liam will agree with me on this. The


UK could be successful outside the European Union just as Scotland


could be successful as an independent member state. Let's have


a debate about whether or not it is better for the UK to remain inside


the European Union and on balance, given the information and all the


facts that we have got, I think it is better that we stay as part of


the European Union. This is about having an honest debate and not


getting people switched off by the scaremongering that you saw from


Liam Fox and his colleagues, and some of the Remain campaign have


been deploying some of these tactics as well. OK. It was an appeal to


start off from that basis. Alright. It hasn't permeated through to


chunks of your campaign yet. It is early days. Liam Fox, what do you


say to that? I would like to see the whole of the debate on our


membership of the European Union go back to first principles. For me,


it's an argument about two things. First, who makes our laws in the


United Kingdom? Secondly, who controls our borders in the United


Kingdom? I think that a country that can't make its own law that can have


law applied to it from outside is not a sovereign independent country.


One of the attractive things about being outside the EU is we have


greater control over our national life and the idea that we had 72


objections to EU law in the European Council since 1996 and all have been


overruled, that is not a great democratic precedent for us. I


understand the SNP argument that the nation state they prefer is


Scotland. The nation state I prefer is the United Kingdom. Incidentedly,


that is the nation state that the Scottish people picked in the


referendum in Scotland. Indeed they did. As a Unionist, are you not


worried at the prospect if England votes to leave, and Scotland votes


to remain, but England's population means that overall the United


Kingdom has voted to leave, that you will put Scottish independence back


on the agenda again? Well, you have to think about it being possible the


other way round. You may get a narrow vote to leave in England


which is outweighed by a vote to remain in Scotland, Wales or


Northern Ireland... Should England then declare independence from


Scotland? No, I don't. You don't get politicians in England saying we


will break the Union up if we don't get the result we want. The people


in Scotland voted to be part of a Union. We have to respect the fact


that every single UK citizen will get a vote which ever part of the UK


they live in and it will have equal weight. Stephen Gethins, would your


party use that scenario, that's been much touted, of overall we vote to


leave but within that vote Scotland has voted to remain, would that, in


your view, trigger another referendum? Well, let me pick up


quickly on something that was raised there. Let's get a few facts


straight about what can be applied. I asked the House of Commons Library


to look into how many times the UK Government had voted against a


proposal since we have had a majority Conservative Government.


The answer was zero. We have a European Court to try and figure out


the rules that we agree with other member states. I want to get that


straight. Alright. Thank you for that. The question? On the


independence question, on the independence question, Andrew, look,


when this went through, I put down an amendment in Parliament that


would have prevented, would have meant Scotland, England, Northern


Ireland, Wales voting to leave in order to leave. If Scotland votes to


remain, and the rest of the United Kingdom votes to leave, you will see


a bit of a breakdown in what should be an equal partnership of nations


across these islands. Liam Fox, you enjoying the campaign? Yes, I have


one question to ask on that. We have had a lot of language which is


pretty equivocal from the SNP that if England votes to leave and


Scotland votes to remain, it may trigger a referendum. What is the


question? If they want to make it happen, will they put it in their


manifesto that if this happens, they will seek, that gives them a


mandate? Stephen Gethins? Well, hold on, we have got a referendum now -


we also voted against not having the referendum so close to these


Scottish Parliament elections so you can have a longer run-in, a proper


debate... He asked you if you would put a Scottish Referendum in your


manifesto or not? The manifesto will be published in due course. The


First Minister and other SNP politicians have made the position


very clear. Would you like to see, in the event of a scenario we have


been talking about, would you like to see a commitment to a second


referendum in your party's manifesto for the Holyrood elections? I have


not changed my mind on Scottish independence. That wasn't my


question. Would you like to see a commitment in your manifesto for


that? I want to see Scottish independence but in terms of the


European referendum I want to see a big yes as well. I have been doing


this long enough to know when my questions are not going to be


answered. Thank you. Boris Johnson's decision to campaign


for Britain to leave the EU has put him into a direct face-off


with his closest rival for the Conservative leadership -


the Chancellor George Osborne. The two rivals are now on directly


opposing sides in the referendum. And the result in June


will have a big impact on their respective chances


of taking over from David Cameron. So who's winning


the argument so far? Giles took the Daily


Politics moodbox out While they are not the only names


in the frame, there are two people who are favourites to succeed


David Cameron as Prime Minister and Tory Party leader,


George Osborne and Boris Johnson. We don't want to know


which one people favour. Which one of the two do they trust


on the eve of the EU referendum? Two people you probably recognise,


which of those two gentlemen do I don't


want to answer that. Because I do not trust


George Osborne at all. Which of these two gentlemen do


you trust most on the EU Referendum? I wouldn't trust him


with anything! You wouldn't trust George


Osborne with anything? The guy has got no experience


of the real world. He has never had a proper job


and yet he is running our economy. It has to be said, Boris


is doing rather well. Sir, you, and usually for what has


been going on, have gone Because I don't trust


the other man one inch. Which of these two gentlemen do


you trust most with the referendum? I don't know enough about it,


but just going on the personalities Who do you trust more


for the EU Referendum, I would not trust any of them


but if I had to choose, On face value I would pick


Boris Johnson, he seems to be doing this for political purposes rather


than wanting Britain One is the Chancellor


of the Exchequer, the other is the Mayor of London,


and it is fair to say that some people said they trusted neither


on the EU Referendum, but those who did make a choice


emphatically went for Boris Johnson. We've been joined by Mike Smithson


from politicalbetting.com. Welcome. If it is a vote to leave on


June 23rd, surely the betting would be overwhelmingly on Boris Johnson


to be the next leader? It would be on one of those who was part of the


Leave campaign. One of the problems that Boris has got is that within


the Conservative Party, there are a lot of doubts about his sincerity in


terms of this. He waited a long time before making his declaration known.


There are things on the record that he has been supportive of the EU in


the past. I think there is an argument developing that maybe if it


is a vote to leave, that you could see somebody who has got more pure,


that would be Michael Gove. Politicians can change their mind.


Is anybody putting any money on George Osborne? His price is easing


quite a lot. After his Budget in June/July, he was a 50% chance in


the betting, now it is about 22 Persuasion and Power in -- 22%


chance. Is there anybody else in the race when it comes to betting? There


has been a lot of interest in Michael Gove, there's been a lot of


interest in Theresa May, who was favourite... She has faded? Maybe


her decision not to join the Leave side will hurt her later on. Is it


also the case that the next Conservative Leader or Mr Cameron's


ability to hold on to the leadership to - he doesn't want to step down


until spring of 2019. His ability to do that won't depend on him voting


to remain, perhaps the size of the majority voting to remain will have


an influence on Mr Cameron's longevity? Absolutely. If it was a


small result, 5% or 6% margin, we will know that the Conservative


Party members, Conservative Party supporters, at least half of


Conservative Party MPs are on the opposite side of the argument and


they won't be tamed. The pressure will be extremely great and in that


context, it is very difficult seeing how Osborne can come through. The


only situation that Osborne can become next leader is if there is a


clear majority to remain. Is David Cameron damaged goods even


if he wins the referendum? He is completely. At the start of this


campaign there would have been a chance for him to remain, I don't


think so and I think George Osborne has no chance either. The Tories


want want another posh boy. It is ironic that Boris is Porsche, he


went to Eton and Oxford, yet he weathered better than George


Osborne. George Osborne does not connect with people the way that


Boris does. Boris is a classic man of the people, George Osborne has


not come he is an awkward person to get behind. Theresa May, I would


have thought, would have been a shoe in for the vote, for the Tories.


However, a few months ago, at the Tory party conference, she was


talking about immigration, preventing social cohesion and then


she falls into line behind Cameron. She has undermined herself. Do we


know what she thinks? I only know about the kind of shoes she wears.


If David Cameron is damaged goods even with a vote to remain, it


follows, I suggest, that George Osborne is damaged goods.


Definitely. He's part of the Cameron project and does not have any of the


easy charm, he presents himself as the Boden died of the nation, he has


that Ed Miliband quality, there's something about George Osborne that


makes people go, there is something about him don't like. There are


often discussions among people like this about who the next leader of


any particular party will be. We have these discussions and the


person who emerges turns out never to have been mentioned, it happened


with Mrs Thatcher in 1975 and it is happening in America with Donald


Trump and it happened here with Jeremy Corbyn. The Black Swan


candidate? As easy, they are all posh boys. If Cameron survives


George Osborne will have a posh job. Maybe somebody like Stephen Crabb


who doesn't have the posh background, has a similar


sensibility yet from a more normal background, he's done an impressive


brief with a job that is normally a backwater job, the Secretary of


State for Wales. Or is your money on? Michael Gove. The last time the


Tories shows a leader they had been beaten three times by Tony Blair.


They wanted someone who appeared in a double. Now they are facing Jeremy


Corbyn, nobody in the Tory party believes they will be defeated by


him. They can go for someone who actually appeals to their basic


soul. To you by Michael Gove? I like Michael Gove. I am not sure people


will like him enough to do it, a lot of his jobs come he's been checked


out of them, and people don't like him. He's not physically the right


character although I think he is the smartest guy. He's much smarter than


Boris and would be a better Prime Minister than Boris would be. We


will leave there, thank you. Now, with all the talk


of the upcoming EU Referendum you could be forgiven for forgetting


that many people will be May sees scores of local


councillors up for election, while voters in Wales,


Scotland and Northern Ireland Today Plaid Cymru begins its spring


conference. It is planning to challenge Labour in Wales.


We're joined now by the Party's leader, Leanne Wood,


Welcome back to proper macro, you have made ambitious pledges, are


they all costed? -- welcome back to The Daily Politics.


Yes, when we published a manifesto we will publish all the pledges,


which have been costed. While ambitious, they will be delivered in


the existing Welsh assembly budget. You would guarantee cancer diagnoses


in 28 days, how much would that cost? To which either that pledge we


have said that we will build three new diagnostic centres, and the cost


for that will be around ?30 million, and that would be capital


expenditure, we've got plans to increase the amount of


infrastructure and capital spending in Wales, to try to stimulator


economic activity, and so are building these diagnostic centres


will be part of that programme as well. You've got to pay to build the


hospitals and then you've got to pay for the running costs of doing these


cancer diagnoses within 28 days so how much does that all cost? We do


need extra staff in the Welsh NHS. How much? Won and other of our


pledges... I want to do this it by it, how much will this cost? The


point is, Andrew, that all our pledges are intertwined. If we want


to have more people diagnosed quicker, then we need more staff to


do that. So the extra thousand doctors and nurses will help us


deliver on the Cancer pledge. You can't separate them. I did not get


the answer, let me come onto the next one. You are pledging to hire


an additional 2000 doctors and nurses, abolish the care home


chargers and the elderly and people with dementia. How much will all


that cost every year? In a total all of our pledges amount to less than


5% of the existing watchers and prebudget. I'm sorry, Leanne Wood,


you are making these promises, it is a legitimate question to ask amateur


tour cost. I am not arguing if it is the right thing to do, I just want


to outline, how much would it cost? The doctors will cost between ?65


million and ?100 million, depending on the grades and where we are at


the time. Our policy to abolish care home charges will cost ?220 million


of the two terms of a Plaid Cymru government. These pledges have been


costed, and they will connect together to provide a position


whereby we can create a healthier Wales. You will also write off


student debt for students living and working in Wales within five years


of graduating. How much will that cost you? That policy will save


money. It will free money up to invest in our underfunded university


sector. What we have the moment is many young people leaving Wales to


go to university, and then they don't come back. With this policy we


will pay off tuition fee debt that they will have accrued a spot of


being a student when they return to Wales and pay it back into a Welsh


tax pot. That will then ensure that we have received is coming into the


country and a return on our investment. -- that we have


receiveds coming into the country. It may be in the long run, you may


be quids in overtime yet to pay off student debt is the cost in the


short-term. How much? It is not an upfront cost. The debt is paid after


they return and work in Wales. So in fact it is a cost that will come


later down the line and not in the early years. Are you going to pay


for all this within the existing budget? Would you cut other things,


will you raise taxes? We cannot raise taxes, our National Assembly


does not have the power to do that at this point in time. There will


have to be rationalisation of existing programmes. Does that mean


cut? Our education policies are designed to lift children out of


poverty. It is a scandal that one third of the children living in


Wales live in poverty. We know that education is potentially a route out


of poverty. So we need to look at these policies as a whole. What are


you going to cut to pay for these promises? There are a number of


existing anti-poverty programmes that can be re-rationalised and


reapplied, and we see our education policies as part of the anti-poverty


agenda. All right. You position yourself as the second party of


Wales, the alternative to a Labour government in Cardiff. But the fact


is, you got fewer votes than Ukip at the general election, and you lost


seats in the Welsh assembly and you could easily come forth in these


elections. In May people in Wales have a choice as to whether or not


they want to carry on with another five years of a Labour government,


and remember we have had 17 years of Labour running public services in


Wales now, all to do something completely different. And what I


have done with my team is put together a fantastic programme of


government, we've got a very strong team of candidates, and so we will


be presenting ourselves as an alternative government to people in


Wales in May. And it is a matter for them in that election whether or not


they want to take that option whether they want to continue with


another five-year is of the Labour Party. Thank you. You've got a very


friendly squirrel behind your! Clearly you are attracting the


animal vote! Thank you for joining us. Leanne Wood from the Plaid Cymru


conference in Llanelli. The race for the White House moved


up one gear this week, Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton both moving


decisively ahead of their rivals. Mrs Clinton even more so than Mr


Trump. Yesterday the former Republican presidential candidate


Mitt Romney, remember that he stood against Barack Obama in 2012,


attacked his party colleague Donald Trump, even though he got an


endorsement from him in 2012, saying he was not fit to lead the country.


Perhaps Donald Trump dominated the Republican TV debate last night.


This is a flavour of the exchanges. Here they are. What did you say


about me? I don't like you. If we nominate Tom and we will spend the


spring, the fall and the summer with the Republican nominee a fraud


trial. Muggy it's a minor civil case! Donald, learn not to


interrupt! Count to ten! He is trying to con people into giving him


their vote like he can't these people into giving him their money.


The real con artist is Senator Marco Rubio, who was elected in Florida


and has the worst voting record in the US Senate. How do you answer


Mitt Romney? He was a failed candidate. He should have beaten


President Obama easily. He failed miserably and was an embarrassment


to everyone including the Republican party. Look at these hands, have a


small hands? And he referred to my hands, if they are small, something


else must be small. I guarantee you, there's no problem! And got a policy


question feel, so. Lets see if he answers it. Don't worry, little


Marco, I well! -- I will! It looks like the only thing that


can stop Donald Trump will be a brokered convention. If it is Trump


versus Mrs Clinton, will she win? Yes and buy a bigger margin than


President Obama did in 2012. A lot of people will vote for Hillary,


even if they did not want her there particularly, they will prefer


having her to him. There's just time before we go


to find out the answer to our quiz. After a major overhaul of its tax


structure Facebook is set to pay millions of pounds more in tax


in the UK. But how much corporation tax did it


pay in 2014? Was it a) Four thousand pounds b)


Forty thousand pounds c) Four million pounds or d)


Forty million pounds So Carole, Stephen -


what's the correct answer? ?4000? The correct answer. Good man.


Less than advertised on Facebook, so they were quids in.


Thanks to Carole, Stephen and all my guests.


I'll be back on Sunday with the Sunday Politics


I hope you can join me them. BBC One, Sunday morning.


We are told that OJ Simpson IS in that car,


Do you think he did it? She was terrified of him.


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