04/03/2016 Daily Politics


04/03/2016

Andrew Neil is joined by former defence secretary Liam Fox and Plaid Cymru leader Leanne Wood. Plus the ongoing migrant crisis and the latest on the EU referendum.


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Transcript


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Afternoon, folks. Welcome to the Daily Politics.

:00:36.:00:39.

Iain Duncan Smith lays into campaigners for Britain to stay

:00:40.:00:42.

in the EU, accusing the Remain camp of spin and smear tactics

:00:43.:00:46.

European leaders holds talks on the migrant crisis,

:00:47.:00:52.

after Donald Tusk - the President of the European Council -

:00:53.:00:55.

told potential migrants "do not come to Europe".

:00:56.:01:01.

Plaid Cymru hold their Spring Conference in Llanelli,

:01:02.:01:03.

with a claim that Wales is crying out for change after 17 years

:01:04.:01:07.

The Party's leader, Leanne Wood, joins us live.

:01:08.:01:13.

And the US Republican Party turns on itself as their former presidential

:01:14.:01:18.

candidate says Donald Trump is not fit to run the country - a claim

:01:19.:01:23.

Trump naturally dismissed in last night's TV debate.

:01:24.:01:28.

He referred to my hands - if they're small, something else

:01:29.:01:31.

I guarantee you there's no problem, I guarantee.

:01:32.:01:47.

Not up there with the Lincoln-Douglas debates(!)

:01:48.:01:53.

All that in the next hour, and with us for the whole

:01:54.:01:55.

of the programme today, Stephen Bush, from the New Statesman,

:01:56.:01:58.

and Carole Malone, who writes for the Sunday Mirror.

:01:59.:01:59.

Let's start with the latest intervention in the EU Referendum

:02:00.:02:04.

campaign from the Work and Pensions Secretary,

:02:05.:02:08.

Iain Duncan Smith, who is campaigning for the UK

:02:09.:02:11.

Writing in the Daily Mail this morning, Mr Duncan Smith doesn't

:02:12.:02:14.

hold any punches saying, "The Remain campaign's case seems

:02:15.:02:18.

almost wholly based on what they describe

:02:19.:02:20.

This case has in whole or in part become characterised by spin,

:02:21.:02:27.

Mr Duncan Smith also accused the Remain campaign -

:02:28.:02:32.

backed by most of his Cabinet colleagues -

:02:33.:02:35.

of making "desperate and unsubstantiated" claims.

:02:36.:02:38.

In the last hour, David Cameron has been making a speech

:02:39.:02:42.

at the Scottish Conservative's Spring Conference in Edinburgh.

:02:43.:02:45.

He didn't respond to Iain Duncan Smith directly,

:02:46.:02:47.

We will be safer in a reformed Europe. It is there that we have

:02:48.:03:01.

areas of co-operation, like the European Arrest Warrant through

:03:02.:03:04.

which we have extradited 7,000 foreign suspects. We need to keep

:03:05.:03:08.

this co-operation up, to keep our people safe.

:03:09.:03:15.

Is the nastiness, inter-Tory nastiness worse than you thought it

:03:16.:03:26.

would be? Oh yes. I can't believe Cameron's naivety in his thinking

:03:27.:03:30.

that the stuff he is spinning isn't going to be exposed. What he did

:03:31.:03:35.

yesterday with President Hollande was shameful, getting a foreign

:03:36.:03:39.

President to put propaganda out about what is going to happen. We

:03:40.:03:42.

are talking about taking the borders down. When Cameron and everyone else

:03:43.:03:49.

knows that's got nothing to do with the EU. So, I just - it is his

:03:50.:03:56.

naivety that I don't get. I think the British people are reacting very

:03:57.:04:01.

badly to it. They think he's treating them like this, stupid, and

:04:02.:04:06.

the more he says this stuff and the more he is exposed as rubbish, it

:04:07.:04:10.

puts people one step nearer... Do you think he is driving them against

:04:11.:04:16.

what he wants to happen? People who are undecided are walking towards

:04:17.:04:22.

the door! Isn't one of the weaknesses of the Prime Minister's

:04:23.:04:27.

position, he paints the picture of apocalypse now if we were to leave.

:04:28.:04:32.

Why would you have ever said, if I can't get some minor changes on

:04:33.:04:35.

welfare, I may well decide we are going to leave. It is not credible?

:04:36.:04:40.

I don't know. We know David Cameron never wanted to leave and he was

:04:41.:04:43.

forced into the position he is in now. But also the Prime Minister has

:04:44.:04:48.

succeeded in saying one thing about the deficit and saying a different

:04:49.:04:51.

thing five years later at the election. People trust Cameron. I

:04:52.:04:56.

don't think the complexity of that decision is a problem. You think -

:04:57.:05:02.

the Tory private polling suggests that Mr Cameron has some weight in

:05:03.:05:09.

this debate and more than with just Conservative voters? David Cameron

:05:10.:05:15.

is a hugely popular figure and he is a trusted figure. People think he

:05:16.:05:19.

has the right idea for the country. There is this demographic, the Stay

:05:20.:05:31.

In campaign call it The Leave it to Dave voters. It would what? The

:05:32.:05:43.

Common Agricultural Policy would put ?200 billion into the agriculture

:05:44.:05:48.

sector... ?200 billion? Sorry, ?20 billion. If we were to vote to

:05:49.:05:56.

leave, we would instigate a system of British farm subsidies like we

:05:57.:06:00.

had before we joined? You are immediately asked where would it

:06:01.:06:04.

come from? It would come from the money we send to Brussels. That is

:06:05.:06:09.

where Cameron wants the argument to be. That is a terrain which is only

:06:10.:06:14.

disastrous for Leave. There is a danger for Mr Cameron if it

:06:15.:06:19.

continues in this level of unpleasantness within the

:06:20.:06:24.

Conservative Party, that even if he wins on June 23rd, there will be a

:06:25.:06:28.

growing mood to say, right, it is time for you to step down? When he

:06:29.:06:32.

came back from Brussels with the deal, everyone thought that if we

:06:33.:06:39.

did vote to go, Cameron would be in charge. You say people trust him.

:06:40.:06:42.

They did then. I don't think they trust him now. With everything he

:06:43.:06:47.

says, the spin and it's exposed as being wrong, I think people distrust

:06:48.:06:52.

him. I think now whether we leave or whether we stay, he is totally

:06:53.:07:01.

discredited. I will fact-check your ?20 billion figure. I multiply that

:07:02.:07:09.

by four or five, it is ?10 billion. But we shall see. That was a mental

:07:10.:07:14.

fact-check there. I have to do my homework instead.

:07:15.:07:16.

After a major overhaul of its tax structure,

:07:17.:07:19.

Facebook is set to pay millions of pounds more in tax in the UK.

:07:20.:07:23.

But how much corporation tax did it pay in 2014?

:07:24.:07:28.

Was it a) ?4,000 b) ?40,000, c) ?4 million, or d) ?40 million?

:07:29.:07:36.

At the end of the show, Stephen and Carole will give us

:07:37.:07:38.

They have been studying the tax returns through the night(!)

:07:39.:07:48.

Now, it's been one of the least violent weeks in Syria

:07:49.:07:49.

since the civil war began there in 2011, but that

:07:50.:07:51.

Hundreds of thousands of that country's citizens,

:07:52.:07:53.

along with migrants from across North Africa

:07:54.:07:56.

and the Middle East, continue to make their way to Europe.

:07:57.:08:00.

Last Saturday a "cessation of hostilities" was agreed

:08:01.:08:03.

for Syria, brokered by the United States and Russia.

:08:04.:08:06.

It's more formal than a truce but falls short of a full ceasefire.

:08:07.:08:11.

Neither so-called Islamic State or the al-Nusra Front,

:08:12.:08:13.

an al-Qaeda-linked group, are part of the agreement,

:08:14.:08:17.

so military manoeuvres in the country have continued.

:08:18.:08:19.

The UK and France have complained that the Syrian government,

:08:20.:08:22.

backed by the Russians, has bombed areas where alleged

:08:23.:08:25.

moderate forces are intermingled with jihadist fighters.

:08:26.:08:29.

Today the leaders of Germany, the UK, and France will take part

:08:30.:08:32.

in a conference call with Vladimir Putin to discuss

:08:33.:08:35.

This week the senior Nato commander in Europe claimed

:08:36.:08:40.

the Russian President was "weaponising" the migration

:08:41.:08:43.

More than 130,000 migrants from Africa and the Middle East have

:08:44.:08:51.

That's after more than 1.2 million made the journey last year.

:08:52.:09:00.

A serious flashpoint at the moment is the Greece-Macedonian border,

:09:01.:09:03.

where thousands of migrants have massed on the Greek side seeking

:09:04.:09:07.

Today European Council President Donald Tusk will meet

:09:08.:09:16.

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan to try to agree a joint

:09:17.:09:19.

It's been mooted that a deal would involve non-Syrian migrants

:09:20.:09:26.

who reach the Greek islands being sent to Turkey.

:09:27.:09:33.

Quite a lot of them have come from there in the first place.

:09:34.:09:37.

We can talk now to our correspondent, Danny Savage,

:09:38.:09:38.

who is on the border between Greece and Macedonia.

:09:39.:09:42.

What's happening where you are? Andrew, I estimate there is probably

:09:43.:09:54.

10,500 people here if not more. We are on the Greek side of the border

:09:55.:09:58.

and people have been trickling through over the last few days. I

:09:59.:10:03.

think only about 150 people went through the border gate last night

:10:04.:10:07.

into Macedonia and upwards on the migrant trail. More than that are

:10:08.:10:12.

arriving by the hour, so it is really not easing the situation at

:10:13.:10:17.

this camp, where the infrastructure is creaking at the sides, this was a

:10:18.:10:21.

place built for 1,500 people, loads more than that here now. The queues

:10:22.:10:27.

you can see behind me are more new arrivals trying to register and get

:10:28.:10:31.

a place in that never-ending queue, and also the queue for food here,

:10:32.:10:35.

too, but you have to wait four hours in line to get some grub. The

:10:36.:10:43.

pictures behind you look quite horrendous. I take it from what you

:10:44.:10:48.

say that if only a trickle are being allowed through into Macedonia, and

:10:49.:10:51.

yet a lot more are coming in from Turkey, through the islands and up

:10:52.:10:55.

the Greek mainland, that the scenes behind you can only get worse? Yeah

:10:56.:11:00.

because the way it is working at the moment is that people don't want to

:11:01.:11:06.

be in any other transit migrant camp in Greece because they feel then

:11:07.:11:10.

they are not in the queue for moving on towards where they want to get

:11:11.:11:14.

to, which is Germany for most of them. They all want to get here. If

:11:15.:11:20.

they are in Athens or elsewhere in northern Greece, they think that

:11:21.:11:23.

they are not going to get over the border at all. There is all these

:11:24.:11:28.

unsubstantiated rumours, among the migrants, that the borders are going

:11:29.:11:31.

to close completely at some point, so the desperation to get across is

:11:32.:11:35.

very real. And the conditions here therefore are very poor because

:11:36.:11:39.

people are pitching up, they are getting a tent sometimes, they are

:11:40.:11:43.

then sleeping here in the open, it rained last night, loads of them

:11:44.:11:46.

have moved on to the railway lines here to camp with great big freight

:11:47.:11:50.

trains going through because the ground is drier, but the people are

:11:51.:11:53.

here because they want to be near the front of the queue and if they

:11:54.:11:56.

are elsewhere, they don't feel as though they are in that queue. Am I

:11:57.:12:00.

right in thinking this must be another, if you have this huge

:12:01.:12:04.

backlog happening right behind you now, more on their way, others may

:12:05.:12:09.

decide when they hit Greece, I'm not going to go, I will stay in the

:12:10.:12:12.

south until I see what is going to happen. This is a potential huge

:12:13.:12:16.

crisis for the Greek government, for Greece, a country that is not

:12:17.:12:20.

exactly in a great position to handle this? No, we know the Greeks

:12:21.:12:32.

aren't well off at an international level. We have heard from the UN in

:12:33.:12:41.

the last few days that this is an impending humanitarian crisis. It

:12:42.:12:45.

depends who you talk to here. MSF and Save the Children would say we

:12:46.:12:49.

are already in a humanitarian crisis. The overriding sounds and

:12:50.:12:55.

smells of this site - the sound that I always hear walking around this

:12:56.:13:00.

campsite - people coughing, kids crying. It is like a camping holiday

:13:01.:13:05.

from hell here for most of these people. Some of them stay well, but

:13:06.:13:09.

particularly the young ones who don't have a good immune system,

:13:10.:13:14.

they are getting ill. Children, particularly, and women make up 60%

:13:15.:13:18.

of the people here. It is a desperate situation for them. If

:13:19.:13:21.

there is some glimmer of hope to move on, it makes them feel better.

:13:22.:13:25.

That hope does seem to be ebbing away. This is a camp where hope is

:13:26.:13:30.

fading for lots of people. Thank you for joining us. Take care. Danny

:13:31.:13:36.

Savage on the Macedonian-Greek border, on the Greek side of the

:13:37.:13:38.

border there. Of course the main reason

:13:39.:13:39.

for the huge numbers of migrants arriving on the EU's southern

:13:40.:13:41.

borders is the ongoing conflict Last week world powers agreed

:13:42.:13:43.

a ceasefire in the Syrian civil war, but coalition and Russian airstrikes

:13:44.:13:48.

against Islamic State in Syria Our defence correspondent,

:13:49.:13:52.

Jonathan Beale, is in Baghdad Bring us up to speed on the state of

:13:53.:14:05.

the Iraqi government's push-back now against Islamic State. We went first

:14:06.:14:18.

this week to see British troops among other coalition forces

:14:19.:14:21.

training the Iraqi army. There is no doubt about it, they are more

:14:22.:14:25.

confident because they are getting that support from air strikes above

:14:26.:14:29.

them and also getting equipment. For example the British government has

:14:30.:14:35.

given Iraqi army mine detectors used in Afghanistan and passing on

:14:36.:14:40.

British soldiers's experience from Northern Ireland and Afghanistan.

:14:41.:14:44.

They seemed upbeat. They now talking about an offensive on Mosul, which

:14:45.:14:51.

is the Iraq headquarters for Islamic State, whether caliphate has been

:14:52.:14:57.

claimed. The person leading this organisation claimed it. The

:14:58.:15:02.

coalition say they have trained 18,000 Iraqi army recruits. They

:15:03.:15:07.

need a force of around two and 5000. We've also heard that US special

:15:08.:15:13.

forces have moved in, the. Force one week ago snatched a high value

:15:14.:15:18.

target, presumably to get intelligence of what's going on in

:15:19.:15:26.

city. -- the Delta Force one. We went to Samarra where they claim to

:15:27.:15:31.

have cleared the ground, much of it is desert, and Islamic State is

:15:32.:15:35.

still launching offensives. For example when we arrived here they

:15:36.:15:39.

are still in Fallujah come in Anbar province, and they launched an

:15:40.:15:46.

offensive, people will remember ten of IB Graber because of the US

:15:47.:15:57.

prisoner abuse but the town of Abu Ghraib. They cannot keep casualties

:15:58.:16:01.

but the cause chaos. Islamic State are laying mines everywhere. We saw

:16:02.:16:07.

them in the field yesterday where we were with the Iraqi army, it killed

:16:08.:16:10.

a lot of livestock, not people coming and they are using those

:16:11.:16:17.

devices and truck bombs, we saw the effect of one hour strike on truck

:16:18.:16:20.

bombers before they could strike. Yet when it comes to the urban

:16:21.:16:24.

fighting places like Mosul and Fallujah it will be much harder than

:16:25.:16:29.

taking ground in the desert. Jonathan, when they do take ground

:16:30.:16:33.

back from Islamic State, are they able to hold it and will things then

:16:34.:16:38.

quieten down, or is that the risk that these are largely Shia forces

:16:39.:16:44.

coming into Sunni territory, will we then be in a tense stand-off between

:16:45.:16:50.

the Shia and Sunni forces? There is no doubt that the Shi'ite militia

:16:51.:16:55.

are paying a big role in the clearing up operation, rusher the

:16:56.:17:01.

Shia. For example, the Shia population in the city, protesting

:17:02.:17:08.

about government corruption, led by October side, who has popped up

:17:09.:17:14.

again, that sort of division hasn't gone away and is still a problem.

:17:15.:17:18.

The bigger problem for what is happening on the ground, and we saw

:17:19.:17:24.

this yesterday is, when they take on Islamic State often they just

:17:25.:17:27.

disappear in these open ground areas. They melt into the

:17:28.:17:31.

background. They were holding a lot of young man, trying to question

:17:32.:17:34.

them, their links with Islamic State but it is easy for them to go back

:17:35.:17:40.

for example to places like Fallujah, their strongholds, and to dig in, to

:17:41.:17:44.

make sure that they will carry on the fight. I think it is very hard

:17:45.:17:49.

to say with confidence that you have defeated Islamic State in an area

:17:50.:17:54.

when a lot of them have just fled and yes, there are a few truck

:17:55.:17:59.

bombers, suicide bombers, who have lost their lives but that was not

:18:00.:18:03.

much evidence of taking prisoners and holding them. Jonathan, in

:18:04.:18:06.

Baghdad, thank you. And joining us now in the studio

:18:07.:18:09.

is the foreign affairs analyst, Welcome back to the programme. Let

:18:10.:18:20.

me come back to this business of the zillion ceasefire, although

:18:21.:18:23.

cessation of hostilities is a better term. What is Vladimir Putin's aim,

:18:24.:18:29.

what is he up to? He's already achieved some of his aims, he has

:18:30.:18:34.

told the world that he doesn't abandon his allies, he has made sure

:18:35.:18:38.

that the power in Syria will keep his support, it is the only Russian

:18:39.:18:44.

warm water port, he's got rusher into the Middle East 30 years after

:18:45.:18:50.

its influence waned there, so if you leave morality out of it he is doing

:18:51.:18:55.

quite well and has put himself in front and centre of any of the

:18:56.:19:00.

negotiations in the last bit of the jigsaw. Today David Cameron will be

:19:01.:19:03.

on the phone to him and so will Angela Merkel and Francois Hollande,

:19:04.:19:07.

and they will say, come on, you have to help us solve this war because of

:19:08.:19:12.

conditions in the refugees camp. He will say that he's happy to help,

:19:13.:19:15.

now what about the sanctions that you have on Ukraine and Russia? It

:19:16.:19:20.

will come full circle. He knows there is a perfect storm gathering,

:19:21.:19:24.

use part of the storm and he's one of the very few people able to blow

:19:25.:19:32.

away the clouds. One of the fallouts of this is the massive European

:19:33.:19:38.

crisis. Of course not all the migrants come from Syria, get a fair

:19:39.:19:43.

chunk are. Some are coming from Iraq and Afghanistan as well. Does the

:19:44.:19:47.

cessation of hostilities helped to reduce the flow, or should we be

:19:48.:19:52.

planning for a continued flow of migrants from the war zone areas for

:19:53.:19:57.

the foreseeable future? Absolutely the latter. My mathematics puts

:19:58.:20:03.

another half a million having left Turkey, Iraq, and Syria, and

:20:04.:20:07.

probably having reached Europe, my mathematics says half a million

:20:08.:20:12.

before we vote in the referendum. They may not be in the UK but they

:20:13.:20:16.

will be on our TV screens that will affect the vote. What you saw on the

:20:17.:20:22.

screen in Macedonia will be tripled, quadrupled. Because the war in Syria

:20:23.:20:26.

will not stop. It's simply initiative for the time being. I'm

:20:27.:20:30.

glad you brought in Jonathan from Iraq because this is part of the

:20:31.:20:34.

perfect storm, especially Mosul. I would add to that Afghanistan,

:20:35.:20:40.

Eritrea, still a basket case because a sizeable proportion of the people

:20:41.:20:44.

coming from Eritrea. Some of those in the Calais camp from there. I

:20:45.:20:50.

would add to the Brexit to that, the fact that Greece is in such

:20:51.:20:54.

financial turmoil, the whole thing is coming together. This spring,

:20:55.:21:00.

130,000 people have already made it here, mostly to Greece. What the

:21:01.:21:05.

Macedonians have done, this is why there is no European unity, and

:21:06.:21:10.

hopefully we can get onto Angela Merkel and Francois Hollande, last

:21:11.:21:14.

week the Austrians got together with seven Balkan countries completely

:21:15.:21:17.

separately from the EU and did their own eight nation deal. What you are

:21:18.:21:23.

seeing in Macedonia, this bottleneck growing and it will grow bigger and

:21:24.:21:26.

bigger, it's because the eight countries said they would

:21:27.:21:29.

fingerprint everyone coming through. That takes time. And they will check

:21:30.:21:34.

the documents, and check the people. They do that because then they know

:21:35.:21:39.

that only 8100 people every day get through. If 1000 every day are

:21:40.:21:45.

coming, and 80 a day going through, you do the maths. Angela Merkel has

:21:46.:21:48.

one plan which has already been rejected, she's coming back to it

:21:49.:21:54.

next week, plan a, that is we need to parcel them out, you take

:21:55.:21:58.

100,000... And yet those eight countries of rejected it, so have

:21:59.:22:02.

hungry, the Scandinavians and Britain, and Poland. And is going to

:22:03.:22:09.

be a referendum. We know the result. They will take 2000 because they

:22:10.:22:13.

will lose the referendum if they say we don't want it. Angela Merkel has

:22:14.:22:18.

plan a and that has been rejected. I understand that she is coming back

:22:19.:22:22.

to it next week having talked to the Turkish people, which is why Donald

:22:23.:22:27.

Tusk is in Ankara today, and they are going to offer Turkey a lot of

:22:28.:22:31.

money and Turkey will want a lot of things back and at the moment I

:22:32.:22:35.

don't think you can get that agreement between Turkey and EU

:22:36.:22:38.

which is accelerated access into the European Union, visas for all

:22:39.:22:43.

Turkish workers wanting to come here, that's 8 million people.

:22:44.:22:46.

Imagine what that will do to the Brexit vote. So it keeps coming

:22:47.:22:52.

round in a circle. I do not think the EU can offer Turkey what it once

:22:53.:23:00.

and I don't think Turkey will give the EU what it wants. At the

:23:01.:23:06.

instigation of Angela Merkel, Germany took in 2 million migrants

:23:07.:23:10.

last year. Is it credible that she will be able to convince Germany to

:23:11.:23:16.

take on another million this year? This is where the regional elections

:23:17.:23:20.

this month in Germany are important. How much will she be damaged? She

:23:21.:23:26.

has been damaged. It's funny, there's reality and this perception

:23:27.:23:30.

and emotion and there's politics. All different things. Angela Merkel

:23:31.:23:34.

knows the publishing of Germany is declining and that they need 1

:23:35.:23:37.

million people yet the German people wanted in an orderly fashion of

:23:38.:23:42.

their choice. So they do need more people to come but the German

:23:43.:23:45.

electorate don't want that, and consequently they will go to the

:23:46.:23:50.

right, there were 900 attacks on asylum seekers in Germany last year.

:23:51.:23:57.

We think it is bad here? Two state elections this month. What if all

:23:58.:24:01.

the politicians across the European Union see that all the electorate is

:24:02.:24:04.

turning to the right, which is mostly happening? They will turn to

:24:05.:24:08.

the right and they want open borders, they will put up fences

:24:09.:24:11.

which will do nothing for the bottleneck. So the key is to go back

:24:12.:24:15.

to Syria and Iraq and solve those wars and good luck with that! When

:24:16.:24:22.

you listen to Tim describe what is the likely backdrop to the

:24:23.:24:29.

referendum, between now and June 23, if you want to vote to remain, you

:24:30.:24:36.

could not wish for a worse backdrop. And the biggest threat to the Remain

:24:37.:24:43.

side is, a body of people washing up on beaches, Europe losing control of

:24:44.:24:46.

its borders. That is far more important to whether Britain leaves

:24:47.:24:51.

all stays in the EU than the grumbling from the Cabinet

:24:52.:24:55.

ministers. It is the pictures of bodies on beaches. It is whether or

:24:56.:24:59.

not Europe can defend its periphery and it looks, troublingly, at the

:25:00.:25:03.

moment, as if it can't. And the other thing is that they mostly men

:25:04.:25:08.

because the women and children stay behind because of the dangers of

:25:09.:25:11.

crossing servers and a graphic explosion waiting to happen in parts

:25:12.:25:15.

of Europe, like China and the consequences of the child policy.

:25:16.:25:20.

One more example that I forgot, rioting. I don't see why do you want

:25:21.:25:24.

to see rioting in these camps down south, a thousand you can handle,

:25:25.:25:30.

why wouldn't people right? And that is what will be on TV screens. And

:25:31.:25:36.

that will have an effect. Sorry, Carole. It is a grim picture. I

:25:37.:25:42.

think you'd be hard pushed, anyone who was dithering about what to do,

:25:43.:25:46.

why would they be convinced to want to stay in Europe if we see fences

:25:47.:25:51.

erected in countries that until now have espoused free movement? We have

:25:52.:25:56.

seen what free movement does. It could be a problem for us whether we

:25:57.:26:01.

are in or out, unless you want to build a fortress Europe, we will

:26:02.:26:05.

still be in the European continent, 20 miles away from France. Although

:26:06.:26:10.

the euro is shot, why would we want to be apart of a group where the

:26:11.:26:15.

currency is shot, where unemployment is at an all-time high, and we are

:26:16.:26:24.

doing pretty well,... You raise an interesting point related to the

:26:25.:26:28.

migrant crisis. Because many of these young men, now increasingly

:26:29.:26:31.

young man, they are coming to Europe and jobs. But they are also coming

:26:32.:26:38.

to the continent to look for jobs in the one continent in the Western

:26:39.:26:42.

world which is not capable of providing jobs for the young people

:26:43.:26:48.

already here. That has to be a toxic situation. That's what I mean, the

:26:49.:26:52.

perfect storm. It's possible Europe could have got over the 2008 crash.

:26:53.:26:58.

It is partially recovering economically, yet that damaged it so

:26:59.:27:02.

much. Just as it was maybe getting out of that crashed we've now

:27:03.:27:06.

introduced this terrible war in the middle east which has placed massive

:27:07.:27:10.

pressures, when people are facing pressure, and again I go back to

:27:11.:27:14.

emotion. I think often people in politics only look at facts and

:27:15.:27:17.

figures and they forget peoples emotions. People will not always had

:27:18.:27:22.

exactly on their wallets which is the accepted wisdom and exactly on

:27:23.:27:26.

facts and figures, they will vote on emotion. And when we see what is

:27:27.:27:29.

happening on our borders, they will be those people will want to open

:27:30.:27:34.

everything up and bring people in but I think that will simply result

:27:35.:27:40.

a real turn to the right in Europe, and that means the middle will tack

:27:41.:27:43.

to the right, and the very freedoms which make you want to welcome

:27:44.:27:49.

people in will then be damaged. I really want a solution, Andrew, and

:27:50.:27:53.

I'm waiting for you to tell me what it is! I fear you may have a long

:27:54.:27:58.

wait. The real test of the movement to the right will be the French

:27:59.:28:01.

presidential elections in May, I hope we will get to talk to you

:28:02.:28:04.

about that then. Tim Marshall, thank you.

:28:05.:28:06.

It's been another week of heavy campaigning in the

:28:07.:28:09.

Here at the Daily Politics we like to be helpful,

:28:10.:28:12.

so if you haven't been following every twist and turn,

:28:13.:28:14.

here's a reminder of some of the big campaign moments

:28:15.:28:17.

Of course it would be possible to start from scratch,

:28:18.:28:22.

not to use one of the existing established models to negotiate

:28:23.:28:26.

a set of trade agreements from scratch, but all the evidence

:28:27.:28:30.

shows that that will take a very long time, many years.

:28:31.:28:34.

What the Government is getting wrong in this dossier is to argue

:28:35.:28:37.

that we have to do exactly the same as someone else.

:28:38.:28:42.

The risk to the In campaign is if it's a negative,

:28:43.:28:45.

miserable scaremongering campaign, then they will turn people off

:28:46.:28:48.

and that is the last thing that is needed given how narrowly

:28:49.:28:53.

balanced the opinion polls look to be across the UK.

:28:54.:28:55.

We can sit here all afternoon debating the specifics

:28:56.:28:59.

of a document, or documents, and I respect your

:29:00.:29:01.

At the end of the day, I will stick by your number

:29:02.:29:06.

and you will sit here challenging my integrity.

:29:07.:29:08.

Look, that was agreed by an international treaty

:29:09.:29:13.

between Britain and France a few years ago.

:29:14.:29:15.

There is no reason at all why that should be.

:29:16.:29:20.

You have to wonder about the timing of this particular venture.

:29:21.:29:23.

It is all part of a project to try and scare people into

:29:24.:29:27.

You have to ask Boris what Boris is doing.

:29:28.:29:30.

We have to make sure these arguments take place on the issues

:29:31.:29:37.

and the facts and the arguments and not on the basis of individuals.

:29:38.:29:42.

In the end, I've got one vote, Boris has one vote.

:29:43.:29:45.

And we're joined now from Edinburgh by former Defence Secretary

:29:46.:29:53.

and pro-Leave campaigner Liam Fox, and from Dundee by the SNP's Europe

:29:54.:29:57.

spokesman Stephen Gethins, who's campaigning for the UK

:29:58.:30:00.

Welcome both. Liam Fox, you can't be surprised that Remain is using

:30:01.:30:14.

project fear because that is what your side of the Scottish Referendum

:30:15.:30:18.

campaign used and you won, so why wouldn't you repeat a winning

:30:19.:30:23.

formula? Everyone knows that the negative part of campaigning is

:30:24.:30:27.

always used because it is effective. There is also, in the debate about

:30:28.:30:31.

the Scottish Referendum, there was also a case put for the Union, not

:30:32.:30:36.

least the fact that we had been a country that had effectively

:30:37.:30:40.

operated as a single unit for hundreds of years, our institutions

:30:41.:30:45.

had grown together, our families had moved together, to the extent you

:30:46.:30:50.

couldn't find anyone who didn't have family somewhere else across the

:30:51.:30:53.

United Kingdom. There was a positive case put that. I'm hoping the Remain

:30:54.:30:59.

campaign will want to put the case for project Europe, which diminishes

:31:00.:31:04.

the ability of nation states to retain their identity. After all,

:31:05.:31:09.

that is what ever-closer Union is all about. I was looking back at

:31:10.:31:15.

what you said during the Referendum campaign, you would lose the

:31:16.:31:19.

military bases, shipbuilding would be finished, the security of Denmark

:31:20.:31:23.

and Norway would be threatened by Scottish independence. That is

:31:24.:31:31.

reminiscent of that playbook the Prime Minister has learned and is

:31:32.:31:35.

now using against you? Some of the issues you mention, for example if

:31:36.:31:40.

the SNP had been outside NATO, that would have put at risk those bases

:31:41.:31:44.

being there, that would have had an effect on the security of other

:31:45.:31:48.

parts of Europe, the countries there accepted that as well. Maybe that is

:31:49.:31:54.

what the Prime Minister is telling us, and maybe that is accurate? It

:31:55.:31:58.

is based upon what we knew about policies laid out by an independent

:31:59.:32:02.

Government, there was a reasonable assessment on the basis of that.

:32:03.:32:05.

What I'm not clear about is when we get the thing we had yesterday about

:32:06.:32:10.

Calais, which was a re-release of a previous flop when the French

:32:11.:32:13.

government had already said we are not going to do that, we are not

:32:14.:32:16.

going to break that. If you are going to have a campaign based upon

:32:17.:32:20.

the negative elements of campaigning, they have to be

:32:21.:32:25.

credible. Stephen Gethins, do you see, or do you feel reminiscent this

:32:26.:32:31.

is project fear mark two? There is a lot, and as one of the scaremongers

:32:32.:32:35.

in chief, Liam will be well aware of the arguments that were deployed and

:32:36.:32:39.

you have gone through them. One thing that was interesting from your

:32:40.:32:44.

package there was the interview from Nicola Sturgeon, from Monday. That

:32:45.:32:48.

is when she set out a positive case about what Europe can do in terms of

:32:49.:32:52.

the economy, the environment, the social policies. I think both sides

:32:53.:32:56.

have got to learn the lessons that the project fear that was run in the

:32:57.:33:04.

independence referendum did nobody any favours. You said the UK could

:33:05.:33:09.

thrive outside the EU, the UK could thrive... Let me give you the quote.

:33:10.:33:17.

The UK can thrive as an independent country outside the EU. You say on

:33:18.:33:20.

balance you still think we should stay in, but to say we could thrive

:33:21.:33:25.

is not exactly what the Prime Minister and your side of the

:33:26.:33:30.

argument has been giving us? No. I think the point that I'm trying to

:33:31.:33:35.

make there, Andrew - and I am trying to start from this basis - I hope -

:33:36.:33:40.

we won't agree on much but maybe Liam will agree with me on this. The

:33:41.:33:46.

UK could be successful outside the European Union just as Scotland

:33:47.:33:49.

could be successful as an independent member state. Let's have

:33:50.:33:53.

a debate about whether or not it is better for the UK to remain inside

:33:54.:33:57.

the European Union and on balance, given the information and all the

:33:58.:34:00.

facts that we have got, I think it is better that we stay as part of

:34:01.:34:04.

the European Union. This is about having an honest debate and not

:34:05.:34:07.

getting people switched off by the scaremongering that you saw from

:34:08.:34:11.

Liam Fox and his colleagues, and some of the Remain campaign have

:34:12.:34:15.

been deploying some of these tactics as well. OK. It was an appeal to

:34:16.:34:21.

start off from that basis. Alright. It hasn't permeated through to

:34:22.:34:24.

chunks of your campaign yet. It is early days. Liam Fox, what do you

:34:25.:34:28.

say to that? I would like to see the whole of the debate on our

:34:29.:34:32.

membership of the European Union go back to first principles. For me,

:34:33.:34:37.

it's an argument about two things. First, who makes our laws in the

:34:38.:34:40.

United Kingdom? Secondly, who controls our borders in the United

:34:41.:34:44.

Kingdom? I think that a country that can't make its own law that can have

:34:45.:34:52.

law applied to it from outside is not a sovereign independent country.

:34:53.:34:55.

One of the attractive things about being outside the EU is we have

:34:56.:35:00.

greater control over our national life and the idea that we had 72

:35:01.:35:05.

objections to EU law in the European Council since 1996 and all have been

:35:06.:35:10.

overruled, that is not a great democratic precedent for us. I

:35:11.:35:13.

understand the SNP argument that the nation state they prefer is

:35:14.:35:16.

Scotland. The nation state I prefer is the United Kingdom. Incidentedly,

:35:17.:35:20.

that is the nation state that the Scottish people picked in the

:35:21.:35:23.

referendum in Scotland. Indeed they did. As a Unionist, are you not

:35:24.:35:29.

worried at the prospect if England votes to leave, and Scotland votes

:35:30.:35:36.

to remain, but England's population means that overall the United

:35:37.:35:39.

Kingdom has voted to leave, that you will put Scottish independence back

:35:40.:35:44.

on the agenda again? Well, you have to think about it being possible the

:35:45.:35:48.

other way round. You may get a narrow vote to leave in England

:35:49.:35:51.

which is outweighed by a vote to remain in Scotland, Wales or

:35:52.:35:56.

Northern Ireland... Should England then declare independence from

:35:57.:36:00.

Scotland? No, I don't. You don't get politicians in England saying we

:36:01.:36:03.

will break the Union up if we don't get the result we want. The people

:36:04.:36:07.

in Scotland voted to be part of a Union. We have to respect the fact

:36:08.:36:13.

that every single UK citizen will get a vote which ever part of the UK

:36:14.:36:17.

they live in and it will have equal weight. Stephen Gethins, would your

:36:18.:36:24.

party use that scenario, that's been much touted, of overall we vote to

:36:25.:36:28.

leave but within that vote Scotland has voted to remain, would that, in

:36:29.:36:32.

your view, trigger another referendum? Well, let me pick up

:36:33.:36:38.

quickly on something that was raised there. Let's get a few facts

:36:39.:36:43.

straight about what can be applied. I asked the House of Commons Library

:36:44.:36:48.

to look into how many times the UK Government had voted against a

:36:49.:36:52.

proposal since we have had a majority Conservative Government.

:36:53.:36:55.

The answer was zero. We have a European Court to try and figure out

:36:56.:36:59.

the rules that we agree with other member states. I want to get that

:37:00.:37:03.

straight. Alright. Thank you for that. The question? On the

:37:04.:37:09.

independence question, on the independence question, Andrew, look,

:37:10.:37:12.

when this went through, I put down an amendment in Parliament that

:37:13.:37:16.

would have prevented, would have meant Scotland, England, Northern

:37:17.:37:21.

Ireland, Wales voting to leave in order to leave. If Scotland votes to

:37:22.:37:25.

remain, and the rest of the United Kingdom votes to leave, you will see

:37:26.:37:29.

a bit of a breakdown in what should be an equal partnership of nations

:37:30.:37:34.

across these islands. Liam Fox, you enjoying the campaign? Yes, I have

:37:35.:37:39.

one question to ask on that. We have had a lot of language which is

:37:40.:37:44.

pretty equivocal from the SNP that if England votes to leave and

:37:45.:37:48.

Scotland votes to remain, it may trigger a referendum. What is the

:37:49.:37:52.

question? If they want to make it happen, will they put it in their

:37:53.:37:56.

manifesto that if this happens, they will seek, that gives them a

:37:57.:38:03.

mandate? Stephen Gethins? Well, hold on, we have got a referendum now -

:38:04.:38:08.

we also voted against not having the referendum so close to these

:38:09.:38:12.

Scottish Parliament elections so you can have a longer run-in, a proper

:38:13.:38:17.

debate... He asked you if you would put a Scottish Referendum in your

:38:18.:38:21.

manifesto or not? The manifesto will be published in due course. The

:38:22.:38:26.

First Minister and other SNP politicians have made the position

:38:27.:38:31.

very clear. Would you like to see, in the event of a scenario we have

:38:32.:38:35.

been talking about, would you like to see a commitment to a second

:38:36.:38:39.

referendum in your party's manifesto for the Holyrood elections? I have

:38:40.:38:44.

not changed my mind on Scottish independence. That wasn't my

:38:45.:38:47.

question. Would you like to see a commitment in your manifesto for

:38:48.:38:51.

that? I want to see Scottish independence but in terms of the

:38:52.:38:55.

European referendum I want to see a big yes as well. I have been doing

:38:56.:39:00.

this long enough to know when my questions are not going to be

:39:01.:39:01.

answered. Thank you. Boris Johnson's decision to campaign

:39:02.:39:05.

for Britain to leave the EU has put him into a direct face-off

:39:06.:39:08.

with his closest rival for the Conservative leadership -

:39:09.:39:12.

the Chancellor George Osborne. The two rivals are now on directly

:39:13.:39:15.

opposing sides in the referendum. And the result in June

:39:16.:39:18.

will have a big impact on their respective chances

:39:19.:39:21.

of taking over from David Cameron. So who's winning

:39:22.:39:24.

the argument so far? Giles took the Daily

:39:25.:39:27.

Politics moodbox out While they are not the only names

:39:28.:39:29.

in the frame, there are two people who are favourites to succeed

:39:30.:39:45.

David Cameron as Prime Minister and Tory Party leader,

:39:46.:39:47.

George Osborne and Boris Johnson. We don't want to know

:39:48.:39:51.

which one people favour. Which one of the two do they trust

:39:52.:39:55.

on the eve of the EU referendum? Two people you probably recognise,

:39:56.:40:00.

which of those two gentlemen do I don't

:40:01.:40:02.

want to answer that. Because I do not trust

:40:03.:40:10.

George Osborne at all. Which of these two gentlemen do

:40:11.:40:28.

you trust most on the EU Referendum? I wouldn't trust him

:40:29.:40:31.

with anything! You wouldn't trust George

:40:32.:40:38.

Osborne with anything? The guy has got no experience

:40:39.:40:40.

of the real world. He has never had a proper job

:40:41.:40:50.

and yet he is running our economy. It has to be said, Boris

:40:51.:40:55.

is doing rather well. Sir, you, and usually for what has

:40:56.:40:58.

been going on, have gone Because I don't trust

:40:59.:41:09.

the other man one inch. Which of these two gentlemen do

:41:10.:41:22.

you trust most with the referendum? I don't know enough about it,

:41:23.:41:26.

but just going on the personalities Who do you trust more

:41:27.:41:31.

for the EU Referendum, I would not trust any of them

:41:32.:41:43.

but if I had to choose, On face value I would pick

:41:44.:42:01.

Boris Johnson, he seems to be doing this for political purposes rather

:42:02.:42:05.

than wanting Britain One is the Chancellor

:42:06.:42:07.

of the Exchequer, the other is the Mayor of London,

:42:08.:42:20.

and it is fair to say that some people said they trusted neither

:42:21.:42:23.

on the EU Referendum, but those who did make a choice

:42:24.:42:26.

emphatically went for Boris Johnson. We've been joined by Mike Smithson

:42:27.:42:37.

from politicalbetting.com. Welcome. If it is a vote to leave on

:42:38.:42:48.

June 23rd, surely the betting would be overwhelmingly on Boris Johnson

:42:49.:42:52.

to be the next leader? It would be on one of those who was part of the

:42:53.:42:56.

Leave campaign. One of the problems that Boris has got is that within

:42:57.:43:01.

the Conservative Party, there are a lot of doubts about his sincerity in

:43:02.:43:08.

terms of this. He waited a long time before making his declaration known.

:43:09.:43:11.

There are things on the record that he has been supportive of the EU in

:43:12.:43:15.

the past. I think there is an argument developing that maybe if it

:43:16.:43:18.

is a vote to leave, that you could see somebody who has got more pure,

:43:19.:43:29.

that would be Michael Gove. Politicians can change their mind.

:43:30.:43:33.

Is anybody putting any money on George Osborne? His price is easing

:43:34.:43:42.

quite a lot. After his Budget in June/July, he was a 50% chance in

:43:43.:43:48.

the betting, now it is about 22 Persuasion and Power in -- 22%

:43:49.:43:54.

chance. Is there anybody else in the race when it comes to betting? There

:43:55.:43:58.

has been a lot of interest in Michael Gove, there's been a lot of

:43:59.:44:02.

interest in Theresa May, who was favourite... She has faded? Maybe

:44:03.:44:11.

her decision not to join the Leave side will hurt her later on. Is it

:44:12.:44:17.

also the case that the next Conservative Leader or Mr Cameron's

:44:18.:44:22.

ability to hold on to the leadership to - he doesn't want to step down

:44:23.:44:30.

until spring of 2019. His ability to do that won't depend on him voting

:44:31.:44:35.

to remain, perhaps the size of the majority voting to remain will have

:44:36.:44:40.

an influence on Mr Cameron's longevity? Absolutely. If it was a

:44:41.:44:47.

small result, 5% or 6% margin, we will know that the Conservative

:44:48.:44:54.

Party members, Conservative Party supporters, at least half of

:44:55.:44:57.

Conservative Party MPs are on the opposite side of the argument and

:44:58.:45:01.

they won't be tamed. The pressure will be extremely great and in that

:45:02.:45:06.

context, it is very difficult seeing how Osborne can come through. The

:45:07.:45:10.

only situation that Osborne can become next leader is if there is a

:45:11.:45:12.

clear majority to remain. Is David Cameron damaged goods even

:45:13.:45:24.

if he wins the referendum? He is completely. At the start of this

:45:25.:45:28.

campaign there would have been a chance for him to remain, I don't

:45:29.:45:32.

think so and I think George Osborne has no chance either. The Tories

:45:33.:45:36.

want want another posh boy. It is ironic that Boris is Porsche, he

:45:37.:45:42.

went to Eton and Oxford, yet he weathered better than George

:45:43.:45:45.

Osborne. George Osborne does not connect with people the way that

:45:46.:45:49.

Boris does. Boris is a classic man of the people, George Osborne has

:45:50.:45:54.

not come he is an awkward person to get behind. Theresa May, I would

:45:55.:45:57.

have thought, would have been a shoe in for the vote, for the Tories.

:45:58.:46:03.

However, a few months ago, at the Tory party conference, she was

:46:04.:46:07.

talking about immigration, preventing social cohesion and then

:46:08.:46:13.

she falls into line behind Cameron. She has undermined herself. Do we

:46:14.:46:17.

know what she thinks? I only know about the kind of shoes she wears.

:46:18.:46:22.

If David Cameron is damaged goods even with a vote to remain, it

:46:23.:46:27.

follows, I suggest, that George Osborne is damaged goods.

:46:28.:46:32.

Definitely. He's part of the Cameron project and does not have any of the

:46:33.:46:37.

easy charm, he presents himself as the Boden died of the nation, he has

:46:38.:46:41.

that Ed Miliband quality, there's something about George Osborne that

:46:42.:46:45.

makes people go, there is something about him don't like. There are

:46:46.:46:50.

often discussions among people like this about who the next leader of

:46:51.:46:54.

any particular party will be. We have these discussions and the

:46:55.:47:00.

person who emerges turns out never to have been mentioned, it happened

:47:01.:47:06.

with Mrs Thatcher in 1975 and it is happening in America with Donald

:47:07.:47:09.

Trump and it happened here with Jeremy Corbyn. The Black Swan

:47:10.:47:15.

candidate? As easy, they are all posh boys. If Cameron survives

:47:16.:47:20.

George Osborne will have a posh job. Maybe somebody like Stephen Crabb

:47:21.:47:24.

who doesn't have the posh background, has a similar

:47:25.:47:28.

sensibility yet from a more normal background, he's done an impressive

:47:29.:47:34.

brief with a job that is normally a backwater job, the Secretary of

:47:35.:47:39.

State for Wales. Or is your money on? Michael Gove. The last time the

:47:40.:47:44.

Tories shows a leader they had been beaten three times by Tony Blair.

:47:45.:47:48.

They wanted someone who appeared in a double. Now they are facing Jeremy

:47:49.:47:52.

Corbyn, nobody in the Tory party believes they will be defeated by

:47:53.:47:57.

him. They can go for someone who actually appeals to their basic

:47:58.:48:03.

soul. To you by Michael Gove? I like Michael Gove. I am not sure people

:48:04.:48:08.

will like him enough to do it, a lot of his jobs come he's been checked

:48:09.:48:17.

out of them, and people don't like him. He's not physically the right

:48:18.:48:19.

character although I think he is the smartest guy. He's much smarter than

:48:20.:48:22.

Boris and would be a better Prime Minister than Boris would be. We

:48:23.:48:23.

will leave there, thank you. Now, with all the talk

:48:24.:48:25.

of the upcoming EU Referendum you could be forgiven for forgetting

:48:26.:48:27.

that many people will be May sees scores of local

:48:28.:48:30.

councillors up for election, while voters in Wales,

:48:31.:48:34.

Scotland and Northern Ireland Today Plaid Cymru begins its spring

:48:35.:48:46.

conference. It is planning to challenge Labour in Wales.

:48:47.:48:49.

We're joined now by the Party's leader, Leanne Wood,

:48:50.:48:55.

Welcome back to proper macro, you have made ambitious pledges, are

:48:56.:49:06.

they all costed? -- welcome back to The Daily Politics.

:49:07.:49:12.

Yes, when we published a manifesto we will publish all the pledges,

:49:13.:49:18.

which have been costed. While ambitious, they will be delivered in

:49:19.:49:25.

the existing Welsh assembly budget. You would guarantee cancer diagnoses

:49:26.:49:28.

in 28 days, how much would that cost? To which either that pledge we

:49:29.:49:36.

have said that we will build three new diagnostic centres, and the cost

:49:37.:49:43.

for that will be around ?30 million, and that would be capital

:49:44.:49:46.

expenditure, we've got plans to increase the amount of

:49:47.:49:51.

infrastructure and capital spending in Wales, to try to stimulator

:49:52.:49:55.

economic activity, and so are building these diagnostic centres

:49:56.:49:57.

will be part of that programme as well. You've got to pay to build the

:49:58.:50:03.

hospitals and then you've got to pay for the running costs of doing these

:50:04.:50:09.

cancer diagnoses within 28 days so how much does that all cost? We do

:50:10.:50:17.

need extra staff in the Welsh NHS. How much? Won and other of our

:50:18.:50:24.

pledges... I want to do this it by it, how much will this cost? The

:50:25.:50:31.

point is, Andrew, that all our pledges are intertwined. If we want

:50:32.:50:35.

to have more people diagnosed quicker, then we need more staff to

:50:36.:50:41.

do that. So the extra thousand doctors and nurses will help us

:50:42.:50:45.

deliver on the Cancer pledge. You can't separate them. I did not get

:50:46.:50:49.

the answer, let me come onto the next one. You are pledging to hire

:50:50.:50:56.

an additional 2000 doctors and nurses, abolish the care home

:50:57.:50:59.

chargers and the elderly and people with dementia. How much will all

:51:00.:51:04.

that cost every year? In a total all of our pledges amount to less than

:51:05.:51:09.

5% of the existing watchers and prebudget. I'm sorry, Leanne Wood,

:51:10.:51:17.

you are making these promises, it is a legitimate question to ask amateur

:51:18.:51:21.

tour cost. I am not arguing if it is the right thing to do, I just want

:51:22.:51:27.

to outline, how much would it cost? The doctors will cost between ?65

:51:28.:51:32.

million and ?100 million, depending on the grades and where we are at

:51:33.:51:38.

the time. Our policy to abolish care home charges will cost ?220 million

:51:39.:51:43.

of the two terms of a Plaid Cymru government. These pledges have been

:51:44.:51:51.

costed, and they will connect together to provide a position

:51:52.:51:56.

whereby we can create a healthier Wales. You will also write off

:51:57.:52:01.

student debt for students living and working in Wales within five years

:52:02.:52:06.

of graduating. How much will that cost you? That policy will save

:52:07.:52:14.

money. It will free money up to invest in our underfunded university

:52:15.:52:18.

sector. What we have the moment is many young people leaving Wales to

:52:19.:52:21.

go to university, and then they don't come back. With this policy we

:52:22.:52:27.

will pay off tuition fee debt that they will have accrued a spot of

:52:28.:52:33.

being a student when they return to Wales and pay it back into a Welsh

:52:34.:52:37.

tax pot. That will then ensure that we have received is coming into the

:52:38.:52:41.

country and a return on our investment. -- that we have

:52:42.:52:47.

receiveds coming into the country. It may be in the long run, you may

:52:48.:52:52.

be quids in overtime yet to pay off student debt is the cost in the

:52:53.:52:59.

short-term. How much? It is not an upfront cost. The debt is paid after

:53:00.:53:06.

they return and work in Wales. So in fact it is a cost that will come

:53:07.:53:10.

later down the line and not in the early years. Are you going to pay

:53:11.:53:17.

for all this within the existing budget? Would you cut other things,

:53:18.:53:27.

will you raise taxes? We cannot raise taxes, our National Assembly

:53:28.:53:30.

does not have the power to do that at this point in time. There will

:53:31.:53:35.

have to be rationalisation of existing programmes. Does that mean

:53:36.:53:45.

cut? Our education policies are designed to lift children out of

:53:46.:53:49.

poverty. It is a scandal that one third of the children living in

:53:50.:53:53.

Wales live in poverty. We know that education is potentially a route out

:53:54.:53:59.

of poverty. So we need to look at these policies as a whole. What are

:54:00.:54:04.

you going to cut to pay for these promises? There are a number of

:54:05.:54:09.

existing anti-poverty programmes that can be re-rationalised and

:54:10.:54:17.

reapplied, and we see our education policies as part of the anti-poverty

:54:18.:54:24.

agenda. All right. You position yourself as the second party of

:54:25.:54:29.

Wales, the alternative to a Labour government in Cardiff. But the fact

:54:30.:54:34.

is, you got fewer votes than Ukip at the general election, and you lost

:54:35.:54:38.

seats in the Welsh assembly and you could easily come forth in these

:54:39.:54:44.

elections. In May people in Wales have a choice as to whether or not

:54:45.:54:49.

they want to carry on with another five years of a Labour government,

:54:50.:54:53.

and remember we have had 17 years of Labour running public services in

:54:54.:54:57.

Wales now, all to do something completely different. And what I

:54:58.:55:01.

have done with my team is put together a fantastic programme of

:55:02.:55:05.

government, we've got a very strong team of candidates, and so we will

:55:06.:55:10.

be presenting ourselves as an alternative government to people in

:55:11.:55:13.

Wales in May. And it is a matter for them in that election whether or not

:55:14.:55:16.

they want to take that option whether they want to continue with

:55:17.:55:21.

another five-year is of the Labour Party. Thank you. You've got a very

:55:22.:55:26.

friendly squirrel behind your! Clearly you are attracting the

:55:27.:55:28.

animal vote! Thank you for joining us. Leanne Wood from the Plaid Cymru

:55:29.:55:33.

conference in Llanelli. The race for the White House moved

:55:34.:55:43.

up one gear this week, Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton both moving

:55:44.:55:47.

decisively ahead of their rivals. Mrs Clinton even more so than Mr

:55:48.:55:50.

Trump. Yesterday the former Republican presidential candidate

:55:51.:55:55.

Mitt Romney, remember that he stood against Barack Obama in 2012,

:55:56.:55:59.

attacked his party colleague Donald Trump, even though he got an

:56:00.:56:03.

endorsement from him in 2012, saying he was not fit to lead the country.

:56:04.:56:10.

Perhaps Donald Trump dominated the Republican TV debate last night.

:56:11.:56:15.

This is a flavour of the exchanges. Here they are. What did you say

:56:16.:56:26.

about me? I don't like you. If we nominate Tom and we will spend the

:56:27.:56:31.

spring, the fall and the summer with the Republican nominee a fraud

:56:32.:56:37.

trial. Muggy it's a minor civil case! Donald, learn not to

:56:38.:56:44.

interrupt! Count to ten! He is trying to con people into giving him

:56:45.:56:48.

their vote like he can't these people into giving him their money.

:56:49.:56:58.

The real con artist is Senator Marco Rubio, who was elected in Florida

:56:59.:57:03.

and has the worst voting record in the US Senate. How do you answer

:57:04.:57:08.

Mitt Romney? He was a failed candidate. He should have beaten

:57:09.:57:12.

President Obama easily. He failed miserably and was an embarrassment

:57:13.:57:16.

to everyone including the Republican party. Look at these hands, have a

:57:17.:57:23.

small hands? And he referred to my hands, if they are small, something

:57:24.:57:27.

else must be small. I guarantee you, there's no problem! And got a policy

:57:28.:57:37.

question feel, so. Lets see if he answers it. Don't worry, little

:57:38.:57:41.

Marco, I well! -- I will! It looks like the only thing that

:57:42.:58:01.

can stop Donald Trump will be a brokered convention. If it is Trump

:58:02.:58:09.

versus Mrs Clinton, will she win? Yes and buy a bigger margin than

:58:10.:58:13.

President Obama did in 2012. A lot of people will vote for Hillary,

:58:14.:58:17.

even if they did not want her there particularly, they will prefer

:58:18.:58:20.

having her to him. There's just time before we go

:58:21.:58:25.

to find out the answer to our quiz. After a major overhaul of its tax

:58:26.:58:28.

structure Facebook is set to pay millions of pounds more in tax

:58:29.:58:33.

in the UK. But how much corporation tax did it

:58:34.:58:35.

pay in 2014? Was it a) Four thousand pounds b)

:58:36.:58:37.

Forty thousand pounds c) Four million pounds or d)

:58:38.:58:39.

Forty million pounds So Carole, Stephen -

:58:40.:58:42.

what's the correct answer? ?4000? The correct answer. Good man.

:58:43.:58:46.

Less than advertised on Facebook, so they were quids in.

:58:47.:58:47.

Thanks to Carole, Stephen and all my guests.

:58:48.:58:49.

I'll be back on Sunday with the Sunday Politics

:58:50.:58:51.

I hope you can join me them. BBC One, Sunday morning.

:58:52.:58:57.

We are told that OJ Simpson IS in that car,

:58:58.:59:15.

Do you think he did it? She was terrified of him.

:59:16.:59:19.

Andrew Neil with the latest political news, interviews and debate. Guests include former defence secretary Liam Fox and Plaid Cymru leader Leanne Wood. Plus the ongoing migrant crisis and the latest on the EU referendum.


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