Browse content similar to 18/04/2016. Check below for episodes and series from the same categories and more!
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Hello, and welcome to the Daily Politics. | :00:39. | :00:40. | |
George Osborne says the public wants less rhetoric and more facts when it | :00:41. | :00:43. | |
This morning, he's claimed that the UK economy could be worse | :00:44. | :00:49. | |
off by the equivalent of ?4,300 a year per household by 2030. | :00:50. | :00:52. | |
Critics have called the figures "completely worthless". | :00:53. | :00:57. | |
So do the Treasury's numbers really add up? | :00:58. | :01:03. | |
There's reported to be a looming crisis in primary | :01:04. | :01:05. | |
We'll talk to the Shadow Education Secretary | :01:06. | :01:08. | |
Labour decides not to allow McDonalds into its annual | :01:09. | :01:14. | |
conference, and faces accusations of snobbery against | :01:15. | :01:16. | |
And with England cricket legend Ian Botham saying he's batting | :01:17. | :01:24. | |
for a British exit from the EU, we'll be asking who really listens | :01:25. | :01:27. | |
All that in the next hour, and with us for the whole | :01:28. | :01:38. | |
of the programme today, two of our own celebrities | :01:39. | :01:40. | |
Well, they're celebrities in our eyes anyway. | :01:41. | :01:44. | |
It's Conservative MP Kwasi Kwarteng, | :01:45. | :01:46. | |
So George Osborne has stepped in to the debate on whether the UK | :01:47. | :01:54. | |
should vote to remain or leave the EU in the June referendum. | :01:55. | :01:57. | |
He's bought the Treasury's firepower to bear, releasing an analysis | :01:58. | :02:01. | |
of the economic impact of a vote to leave - | :02:02. | :02:04. | |
and it paints a pretty bleak picture of what could happen | :02:05. | :02:07. | |
Leave campaigners were quick to question the Treasury's | :02:08. | :02:12. | |
credibility, and described the report as "absurd". | :02:13. | :02:18. | |
The 200-page document claims the economy could be 6% smaller | :02:19. | :02:22. | |
than forecast by 2030 if the UK votes to leave the EU. | :02:23. | :02:28. | |
That's the equivalent - the report says - of ?4,300 a year | :02:29. | :02:31. | |
The Treasury insists there will be a ?36 billion a year black hole | :02:32. | :02:46. | |
in the UK's public finances if the it left the EU | :02:47. | :02:49. | |
- and that - they say - could lead to an 8% rise income tax. | :02:50. | :02:52. | |
Their calculations are based on what they call | :02:53. | :02:54. | |
the "middle option" - where the UK would negotiate a trade | :02:55. | :02:57. | |
deal with the EU similar to that which has been agreed with Canada - | :02:58. | :03:01. | |
but George Osborne insisted today that in all scenarios, | :03:02. | :03:06. | |
Britain would be "permanently poorer" outside the EU. | :03:07. | :03:09. | |
Leave campaigners called the research "erroneous", | :03:10. | :03:12. | |
and criticised the Chancellor's ability to predict what the economy | :03:13. | :03:15. | |
And campaigners also argue that in all the Treasury's assumptions, | :03:16. | :03:23. | |
Well, George Osborne has been hammering home his message | :03:24. | :03:25. | |
with a speech in Bristol earlier today - let's have a listen. | :03:26. | :03:28. | |
So the economic analysis shows that this Canadian-style arrangement | :03:29. | :03:30. | |
comes at a real economic cost for Britain. | :03:31. | :03:33. | |
The central estimate is that, in the long run, | :03:34. | :03:35. | |
GDP would be over 6% smaller, and Britain would be worse off | :03:36. | :03:39. | |
The people of Britain want to know the facts before they vote | :03:40. | :03:46. | |
The Treasury analysis steps away from the rhetoric and | :03:47. | :03:52. | |
Britain would be permanently poorer if we left the European Union. | :03:53. | :04:01. | |
Well, let's hear now from the man we turn | :04:02. | :04:03. | |
It's Paul Johnson of the Institute for Fiscal Studies. | :04:04. | :04:10. | |
Paul Johnson, what do you make of this ?4,300 figure? The first thing | :04:11. | :04:20. | |
to say is that it is broadly in the same direction as nearly all the | :04:21. | :04:23. | |
other economic analysis that has been done. If you move to a world | :04:24. | :04:28. | |
where you have less free trade and more expensive trade with the EU, | :04:29. | :04:34. | |
that is likely to have a negative affect on the economy. The scale of | :04:35. | :04:38. | |
that effect is uncertain for all sorts of reasons, partly because we | :04:39. | :04:40. | |
don't know exactly what the agreements are that we would come to | :04:41. | :04:49. | |
with the European Union if leaving, and secondly, the precise cost of | :04:50. | :04:53. | |
it. If you look at the range of things that have come out from | :04:54. | :04:55. | |
places like the London School of Economics, this is broadly in that | :04:56. | :04:59. | |
range. Perhaps a bit above the average, but it isn't out of line | :05:00. | :05:06. | |
with many independent forecasts. How accurately can you predict the | :05:07. | :05:11. | |
economy that far in advance? They're talking about 2030. I looked at the | :05:12. | :05:16. | |
calculation in the report. I'm no maths genius, but even if you were, | :05:17. | :05:21. | |
you would pause for thought. You cannot predict it accurately. Whilst | :05:22. | :05:26. | |
the Chancellor is using this single number, ?4,300, the report has a | :05:27. | :05:32. | |
whole range of numbers for basing the assumptions and different trade | :05:33. | :05:35. | |
agreements. What you can say is about the direction of travel. What | :05:36. | :05:41. | |
this is trying to do is say not how big the economy will be in 15 years' | :05:42. | :05:45. | |
time, but how much difference there will be under two different | :05:46. | :05:49. | |
scenarios. It's probably a mistake to focus very much on ?4,300. For | :05:50. | :05:55. | |
one thing, it isn't an income number. It is a GDP number. | :05:56. | :06:01. | |
Secondly, there's a lot of uncertainty around it. In the | :06:02. | :06:05. | |
context of the other analysis that's been done, though, they all point in | :06:06. | :06:09. | |
the direction of a negative rather than a positive effect. Are there | :06:10. | :06:15. | |
any scenarios in your mind where the UK would not be permanently poorer | :06:16. | :06:19. | |
if we left the EU? If it were possible to essentially organise a | :06:20. | :06:25. | |
set of trade agreements which are almost the same as they are now, | :06:26. | :06:32. | |
then the big effects would be much dampened. Two things to say about | :06:33. | :06:36. | |
that - first, there's no question that in the short run there will be | :06:37. | :06:40. | |
a cost because of the uncertainty involved. If you look at the | :06:41. | :06:44. | |
estimates of the amount of foreign direct investment we might lose, it | :06:45. | :06:49. | |
will have an effect. Those Treasury figures do not take account of the | :06:50. | :06:54. | |
short-term effects. In the long run, it is uncertain the kind of trade | :06:55. | :06:58. | |
deals we will manage with everyone else. The sort of regulations we | :06:59. | :07:03. | |
ourselves create will be a more or less regulated or open economy. As | :07:04. | :07:08. | |
you get further out, you have more uncertainty. If we governed | :07:09. | :07:13. | |
ourselves well, you can see a world in which, in the long run, we are | :07:14. | :07:15. | |
better off. And we asked to speak | :07:16. | :07:17. | |
to a Treasury Minister about today's claims, | :07:18. | :07:19. | |
but were told no-one was available. Happily we can speak | :07:20. | :07:21. | |
to my guests of the day, Kwasi Kwarteng, the report says the | :07:22. | :07:31. | |
UK will be permanently poorer if we leave the TEU under any comparable | :07:32. | :07:35. | |
scenario. I think these figures are absurd. The Treasury were the same | :07:36. | :07:41. | |
people who said at the beginning of the last parliament that we would | :07:42. | :07:45. | |
have eliminated the deficit by 2015. That hasn't happened. The Treasury | :07:46. | :07:49. | |
did not predict the 2008 credit crunch. So for a bunch of officials | :07:50. | :07:55. | |
and economists to say they can describe with in ?1 what the state | :07:56. | :08:01. | |
of the British economy and what people's economic well-being will be | :08:02. | :08:07. | |
in 2030, 14 years' time, is absurd. None of the predictions that were | :08:08. | :08:13. | |
made in 2002 about 2016 have stood the test of time. So to project that | :08:14. | :08:18. | |
far forward is intellectually dishonest. So we shouldn't trust | :08:19. | :08:22. | |
anything that the Treasury says in terms of forecast? We have to use | :08:23. | :08:26. | |
our brains as to whether it is plausible. We have just heard from | :08:27. | :08:31. | |
Paul Johnson that the figures may not be accurate to the pound, but | :08:32. | :08:36. | |
the figures broadly for into line with every other single piece of | :08:37. | :08:41. | |
economic analysis that has been done by think tanks put forward by the | :08:42. | :08:45. | |
government. It has fallen within that range. We have to look at what | :08:46. | :08:51. | |
is happening here. The pro-EU support has not found a positive | :08:52. | :08:56. | |
argument. They realise there is no groundswell of support in the | :08:57. | :09:00. | |
country for the EU, so they are embarking on Project fear. They will | :09:01. | :09:06. | |
say that British people living in Europe will have to come back, they | :09:07. | :09:12. | |
have said we will have to lose 3 million jobs, Nick Clegg has said | :09:13. | :09:16. | |
that, and they claim will work be poorer. There is a pattern of fear. | :09:17. | :09:22. | |
Margaret Prosser, is that how you see it? Is it about fear? Is it was | :09:23. | :09:28. | |
George Osborne is resorting to, because he sees it as one of the | :09:29. | :09:32. | |
biggest weapons in his armoury to shoot down the Leave campaign's | :09:33. | :09:39. | |
arguments. You almost said this yourself a moment ago. We have just | :09:40. | :09:45. | |
had Paul Johnson from the IFS, an independent body, a professional | :09:46. | :09:50. | |
person, who says, in his opinion, that this report is broadly in line | :09:51. | :09:54. | |
with what they think is likely to happen. He himself has said you | :09:55. | :09:59. | |
cannot predict that many years ahead, which seems quite sensible. | :10:00. | :10:06. | |
14 years. It's a long time. Is it worth doing it, Margaret? There's a | :10:07. | :10:10. | |
whole lot of other stuff in there. The thing that really gets me about | :10:11. | :10:16. | |
all of this... Politicians keep saying, at the end of the day people | :10:17. | :10:21. | |
are going to vote. It will be the People's decision. But some of this | :10:22. | :10:25. | |
stuff doesn't mean anything to anybody. So we need to develop | :10:26. | :10:32. | |
arguments, both sides are guilty of this, I think, develop arguments | :10:33. | :10:36. | |
which something. Paul himself said that 4000 odd pounds isn't income. | :10:37. | :10:44. | |
It is about the GDP. It is money that those households wouldn't have. | :10:45. | :10:51. | |
It isn't money in their pockets. It is a different concept. Except, | :10:52. | :10:55. | |
Kwasi Kwarteng, Paul Johnson said there would be this short-term | :10:56. | :11:01. | |
uncertainty. The deal that could be done in two years' time, five years' | :11:02. | :11:06. | |
time, may be very profitable to the UK, but there would be short-term | :11:07. | :11:11. | |
uncertainty and problems with things like foreign investment and the | :11:12. | :11:15. | |
markets. It's all speculation, but is it worth people taking that risk? | :11:16. | :11:20. | |
I would argue there are equally big risks in staying in. You've got a | :11:21. | :11:25. | |
migrant situation that no one has dealt with, Germany making deals | :11:26. | :11:28. | |
with Turkey that we don't know the conclusions of, a Europe reserve | :11:29. | :11:33. | |
whose problems haven't been solved... There's just as many risks | :11:34. | :11:38. | |
of staying in the thing, and still giving a net contribution of ?10 | :11:39. | :11:48. | |
billion per year. You criticise the Remain group and the governments are | :11:49. | :11:52. | |
talking about project fear, yet since when did you raise the | :11:53. | :11:56. | |
question of Turkey in the past? Suddenly it is all over the agenda. | :11:57. | :12:03. | |
It is a real, though. I am not saying that in 2030, I am not making | :12:04. | :12:07. | |
any claims about that. I'm talking about what I see today. That's the | :12:08. | :12:13. | |
reality. Margit Prosser, Kwasi Kwarteng does raise... It has been | :12:14. | :12:22. | |
going on for years. In terms of risks, Paul Johnson says there is | :12:23. | :12:27. | |
short-term uncertainty. There is uncertainty about the Eurozone and | :12:28. | :12:32. | |
being part of the EU. From the eurozone crash, we know that had | :12:33. | :12:35. | |
negative consequences for the UK. That could happen again. There are | :12:36. | :12:42. | |
risks. Of course there are. There are daily risks in life. We had to | :12:43. | :12:46. | |
make a decision, weighing the balance of what is the best thing. | :12:47. | :12:51. | |
It seems to me that those people who are campaigning to come out other | :12:52. | :12:56. | |
kinds of people, their history tells you this, who are not interested in | :12:57. | :13:00. | |
the level playing field that you have to abide by as a member of | :13:01. | :13:04. | |
Europe. You have too abide by the rules of the club, and they don't | :13:05. | :13:09. | |
like that. Jeremy Corbyn made this point last week. If we came out, | :13:10. | :13:15. | |
what happened to workers rights? Almost all employment protections | :13:16. | :13:18. | |
are based upon European legislation. What would happen if we came out? | :13:19. | :13:25. | |
Could you guarantee that? You cannot guarantee anything at this point, | :13:26. | :13:32. | |
but there is an issue here, quasi-, about you have not said what the | :13:33. | :13:40. | |
deal would look like. No one was a bigot champion for workers rights | :13:41. | :13:43. | |
than Tony Benn. -- a bigger champion. But he voted in 1973. You | :13:44. | :13:57. | |
voted to stay out in 1975. Till the day he died, he was utterly | :13:58. | :14:03. | |
consistent on the EU. If someone like him was consistent, how can | :14:04. | :14:06. | |
Margaret say that we will not guarantee workers' rights? It is | :14:07. | :14:12. | |
ludicrous. Tony Benn was a champion of workers' rights. What about how | :14:13. | :14:18. | |
it would actually look? It's very well saying that it is very negative | :14:19. | :14:23. | |
of the Remain camp, that we would get a better deal than Canada, | :14:24. | :14:29. | |
Norway or Switzerland. Any of the scenarios under Norway, Switzerland | :14:30. | :14:34. | |
or Canada, the Treasury report still says we will be poorer. We have a | :14:35. | :14:38. | |
better bargaining position than those countries. The British economy | :14:39. | :14:44. | |
is far bigger than the Canadian, the Swiss and the Norwegian economies. | :14:45. | :14:48. | |
By definition, we would get a better deal with the TEU trading bloc than | :14:49. | :14:55. | |
any of those countries. What is wrong with that? That leaves us | :14:56. | :14:59. | |
trying to negotiate a deal when we are not at the table, part and | :15:00. | :15:03. | |
parcel of the decision-making process. I don't understand where | :15:04. | :15:08. | |
the benefit comes from. If you look at the examples of Canada, the seven | :15:09. | :15:12. | |
years that is quoted in terms of forming that deal, it may not take | :15:13. | :15:18. | |
that long. If you look at Switzerland and Norway, the quid pro | :15:19. | :15:21. | |
quo is having to contribute in some way to the European budget. What | :15:22. | :15:26. | |
makes you think that you would get everything? If Germany and France | :15:27. | :15:29. | |
were to allow that, everyone would leave the EU. | :15:30. | :15:35. | |
Norway voted in 1994, 52 proceeds of people did not want to join, and | :15:36. | :15:44. | |
that has now got up to 72%. 72% of Norwegians don't want to join. That | :15:45. | :15:51. | |
is not answering my question. More people, far more Norwegians have | :15:52. | :15:57. | |
decided not... Do they contribute to an EU budget? They have the deal | :15:58. | :16:03. | |
that they have but if the EU was so marvellous you would think those | :16:04. | :16:06. | |
figures would reverse, but 22 years of being outside the EU, the numbers | :16:07. | :16:10. | |
of people wanting to stay outside of the EU in Norway has only gone up. | :16:11. | :16:14. | |
It is very difficult to compare us with Norway, we are a completely | :16:15. | :16:18. | |
different country. And we could get a better deal? We could get a much | :16:19. | :16:23. | |
better deal, we have more to offer. Potentially that is what the Leave | :16:24. | :16:29. | |
campaign are saying, and we don't know, which is still the issue for | :16:30. | :16:32. | |
lots of voters, is that there is still uncertainty for both sides. | :16:33. | :16:35. | |
Today it's all about the by-election taking place this afternoon to elect | :16:36. | :16:40. | |
a new Liberal Democrat hereditary peer. | :16:41. | :16:41. | |
Who is eligible to vote in the by-election? | :16:42. | :16:44. | |
Or D) all three Lib Dem hereditary peers? | :16:45. | :16:54. | |
Kwasi and Margaret will give us the correct answer. | :16:55. | :17:00. | |
Parents of children starting primary school in England will find out | :17:01. | :17:03. | |
today if they've got the school place they wanted - | :17:04. | :17:07. | |
there could be a shortage of 10,000 places by 2020. | :17:08. | :17:13. | |
Here's the schools minister, Nick Gibb, | :17:14. | :17:18. | |
Well, those figures are simply not true. | :17:19. | :17:23. | |
It's claiming there will be a shortage of 10,000 by 2019-20. | :17:24. | :17:25. | |
Over the last five years, we've created 600,000 school places, | :17:26. | :17:28. | |
and we have plans to create another 500,000 over | :17:29. | :17:30. | |
In fact, just last year, the school system created | :17:31. | :17:37. | |
So the idea that there will be a 10,000 pupil place shortage | :17:38. | :17:45. | |
in 2019 is simply not true, and they've based their figures | :17:46. | :17:47. | |
Earlier I spoke to the Shadow Education Secretary, | :17:48. | :17:54. | |
Lucy Powell, and began by asking if she agreed with the claims | :17:55. | :17:57. | |
of a 10,000 shortfall in primary school places in England. | :17:58. | :18:00. | |
Well, no, actually, I don't agree with that figure. | :18:01. | :18:02. | |
The figure that we've calculated from those same figures | :18:03. | :18:05. | |
How have you calculated those figures? | :18:06. | :18:09. | |
They look more like the figures for families who are not | :18:10. | :18:12. | |
getting their first or perhaps second choice of primary | :18:13. | :18:14. | |
school, rather than not having a place at all. | :18:15. | :18:17. | |
There are lots of different figures here, so the aggregates of all these | :18:18. | :18:21. | |
figures show clearly that there is a pupil places crisis. | :18:22. | :18:26. | |
There are figures about the number of families who won't get | :18:27. | :18:30. | |
their first choice schools today, that's about one in ten | :18:31. | :18:33. | |
of all families today won't be getting their first choice, | :18:34. | :18:37. | |
and around one in 20 families won't be getting any | :18:38. | :18:39. | |
But there is quite a big difference, to clarify, between not having | :18:40. | :18:45. | |
a place anywhere at a primary school and not getting your first choice, | :18:46. | :18:48. | |
because many families would still be happy or at least satisfied | :18:49. | :18:51. | |
with a place at their second or third choice. | :18:52. | :18:54. | |
They will have a place, it's not the same thing, is it? | :18:55. | :18:57. | |
Well, no, but one in 20 families won't get any of their options | :18:58. | :19:01. | |
at all, and some of those won't be offered a place at all anywhere, | :19:02. | :19:06. | |
and that's why we're seeing a very significant increase in the number | :19:07. | :19:08. | |
These figures are now at the highest level they've been for 15 years | :19:09. | :19:20. | |
with nearly half a million children in class sizes over 30, | :19:21. | :19:22. | |
We're also seeing the biggest rise in what we call Titan primary | :19:23. | :19:27. | |
I think there were about 16 of those schools at the beginning of this | :19:28. | :19:35. | |
Government's time in office, and now these are well into the hundreds, | :19:36. | :19:40. | |
so we're seeing more children being pushed into larger class sizes | :19:41. | :19:43. | |
and some schools having to get really big in order to accommodate | :19:44. | :19:47. | |
Big schools is not necessarily a problem if the class sizes | :19:48. | :19:52. | |
Big class sizes, yes, parents will be concerned | :19:53. | :19:55. | |
The Department for Education says free schools will make up the gap. | :19:56. | :19:59. | |
The issue with the free market approach, the free school approach, | :20:00. | :20:08. | |
is that simply leaving such a big increase in demand to market forces | :20:09. | :20:12. | |
When you say market forces, you mean free schools in areas | :20:13. | :20:19. | |
where there are shortages will take up some of the pupils that aren't | :20:20. | :20:22. | |
finding places in some of the state schools? | :20:23. | :20:32. | |
Let's hope they do, but the evidence so far has been that | :20:33. | :20:38. | |
many of the free schools that have opened so far have been in | :20:39. | :20:41. | |
In fact, of the free schools that have already opened, | :20:42. | :20:45. | |
only 4% are in areas of the most acute need, | :20:46. | :20:47. | |
and simply leaving to chance, really, that some organisation | :20:48. | :20:49. | |
or some body of parents is going to come along | :20:50. | :20:52. | |
and want to open a school where it's needed just isn't sufficient. | :20:53. | :20:55. | |
When you look at some of the areas like Manchester, London, | :20:56. | :20:57. | |
areas where there's really high demand, Milton Keynes and others, | :20:58. | :21:02. | |
this approach is just not working, and that's why local Government | :21:03. | :21:04. | |
leaders are making the same argument as me today, | :21:05. | :21:07. | |
Tory local Government leaders are making the same argument as me | :21:08. | :21:10. | |
today that we've got to give local authorities both the powers | :21:11. | :21:13. | |
and resources they need to ensure that they can meet that statutory | :21:14. | :21:17. | |
obligation of ensuring that every child has a place. | :21:18. | :21:20. | |
What do you think the role of immigration has played? | :21:21. | :21:23. | |
Priti Patel, the Employment Minister, has said that | :21:24. | :21:25. | |
the shortfall in primary school places is due to uncontrolled | :21:26. | :21:29. | |
migration, migration from the EU, particularly in areas like London | :21:30. | :21:32. | |
where the birth rate is increasing, and that has put pressure | :21:33. | :21:34. | |
I think this is a bit of scaremongering by Priti Patel. | :21:35. | :21:39. | |
Let's just disaggregate some of the figures. | :21:40. | :21:43. | |
In terms of new arrivals to this country, families arriving now, | :21:44. | :21:50. | |
these figures are very small in comparison to the overall | :21:51. | :21:52. | |
What about the figures over the last five or ten years? | :21:53. | :21:57. | |
If you look at the rising birth rate, and let's remember | :21:58. | :22:00. | |
that is a very good thing for our country and our economy, | :22:01. | :22:03. | |
these are the people who will be paying... | :22:04. | :22:05. | |
Only a quarter of the new births in this country are from foreign-born | :22:06. | :22:10. | |
mothers, and many of those will have British fathers. | :22:11. | :22:15. | |
A rising birth rate is a good thing for the country, these | :22:16. | :22:18. | |
are people who will pay our pensions and pay for our NHS going forward. | :22:19. | :22:23. | |
You might remember, as I do, 15, 20 years ago, the big policy issue | :22:24. | :22:27. | |
and problem for our country was a falling birth rate | :22:28. | :22:29. | |
and an ageing population, and how are we going to pay | :22:30. | :22:32. | |
Is that why Labour was very keen to increase immigration figures, | :22:33. | :22:37. | |
in order to increase the population in areas where, as you say, it | :22:38. | :22:40. | |
It wasn't about increasing, necessarily being keen | :22:41. | :22:45. | |
to increase immigration, but overall, where immigration has | :22:46. | :22:51. | |
had a net benefit on our country in terms of people coming | :22:52. | :22:54. | |
here to work and contribute and so on, of course | :22:55. | :22:57. | |
there are parts of the country where we need to deal with that | :22:58. | :23:00. | |
and where it is particularly acute, and place planning is part of that. | :23:01. | :23:03. | |
But that is about local areas having the powers and the resources | :23:04. | :23:08. | |
they need to deal with these issues, but overall the increases to place | :23:09. | :23:13. | |
planning and the places crisis that we are seeing | :23:14. | :23:17. | |
is because of a rising birth rate, which is a good thing | :23:18. | :23:20. | |
for the country, which we've known is coming for a long time, | :23:21. | :23:25. | |
and which the Government have woefully failed to deal | :23:26. | :23:27. | |
with because they want to leave it to the free market. | :23:28. | :23:30. | |
You've admitted we have known about it for an awfully long time, | :23:31. | :23:33. | |
some of that will have fallen under Labour's final years in Government, | :23:34. | :23:36. | |
and that Government has been blamed for not planning properly, | :23:37. | :23:40. | |
you knew there would be a demographic bulge | :23:41. | :23:44. | |
and you didn't plan for it in terms of school places at the time | :23:45. | :23:51. | |
It is not nonsense, you said yourself... | :23:52. | :23:55. | |
We built over 1,000 primary schools, and this is about the efficiency. | :23:56. | :23:58. | |
The families who are today finding out whether they got a place or not, | :23:59. | :24:01. | |
their children are aged three or four, they were not even born | :24:02. | :24:04. | |
at the time of the last Government coming into office. | :24:05. | :24:07. | |
To try and blame Labour is a bit rich, quite honestly. | :24:08. | :24:10. | |
Except that this problem has been going on for quite a number | :24:11. | :24:15. | |
of years, you have been predicting it for a number of years. | :24:16. | :24:18. | |
It has been coming, new places have been created over a number of years, | :24:19. | :24:25. | |
over a number of years, but not enough, and there are not | :24:26. | :24:35. | |
going to be enough coming on stream over the next few years, | :24:36. | :24:38. | |
which is what the LGA and others are saying today, | :24:39. | :24:40. | |
You would not want, ten, 15 years ago, to have classrooms | :24:41. | :24:45. | |
with teachers in it with nobody in them, that would be that would be | :24:46. | :24:49. | |
a surplus of places, so you have to have sufficient | :24:50. | :24:51. | |
number of places, and the Government are not creating sufficient number | :24:52. | :24:54. | |
of places, and that is the issue, it is not about actual absolute | :24:55. | :24:57. | |
numbers, it's about sufficient places, and that is something | :24:58. | :24:59. | |
they are woefully neglecting and they are not putting in place | :25:00. | :25:02. | |
the powers that people need locally to plan for their areas | :25:03. | :25:04. | |
and make sure that parents are not disappointed. | :25:05. | :25:06. | |
Hundreds, perhaps thousands, of British men and women have | :25:07. | :25:11. | |
travelled to Syria to support, fight for and, in some cases, die | :25:12. | :25:13. | |
If they return to the UK, they face prosecution and imprisonment. | :25:14. | :25:18. | |
But a much smaller number have also travelled to Northern Syria | :25:19. | :25:21. | |
So what should happen to them when and if they return? | :25:22. | :25:30. | |
Last year, the BBC's Quentin Somerville spoke to | :25:31. | :25:34. | |
one fighter, known only as "Jim", about his reasons for | :25:35. | :25:37. | |
The particular thing that brought me here was seeing | :25:38. | :25:40. | |
a photo of an Isis fighter, holding up the severed head of | :25:41. | :25:43. | |
When I saw that, although I didn't know it was possible then | :25:44. | :25:49. | |
to come here and make a contribution, I felt I had to. | :25:50. | :25:54. | |
I think it's very important to make a clear distinction in the law | :25:55. | :25:58. | |
between those who are coming here to fight against Isis and those | :25:59. | :26:01. | |
This issue is being raised in the Commons this week | :26:02. | :26:13. | |
He's become involved after a constituent who fought | :26:14. | :26:16. | |
in Syria was arrested on his return to the UK. | :26:17. | :26:18. | |
What are you raising in terms of what you think should happen to | :26:19. | :26:28. | |
people who do go out to fight against IS? The problem here is the | :26:29. | :26:31. | |
Government doesn't have a clear policy. We have an increasingly | :26:32. | :26:36. | |
clear and quite strong policy on those individuals who choose to go | :26:37. | :26:41. | |
and fight against the Kurdish Peshmerga and the Iraqi army by | :26:42. | :26:45. | |
joining IS, but we haven't really come to a settled view on how we | :26:46. | :26:48. | |
treat those individuals who you might say do the right thing, | :26:49. | :26:52. | |
because they are certainly driven by a strong moral mission in many cases | :26:53. | :26:56. | |
to go and joint Kurdish militias, and this is an issue that goes back | :26:57. | :27:01. | |
hundreds of years, 50,000 Brits went to fight in the American Civil War, | :27:02. | :27:05. | |
several thousand went to fight in the Spanish war, and those | :27:06. | :27:09. | |
individuals who went out there and thought they would come back to a | :27:10. | :27:13. | |
heroes welcome but in fact came back to suspicion from the security | :27:14. | :27:15. | |
services and workplace discrimination, and I think we are | :27:16. | :27:19. | |
starting to see the same with this growing group of Brits going to | :27:20. | :27:22. | |
fight on the right side of this conflict. But there are problems | :27:23. | :27:27. | |
with this group, too. Are you suggesting that Britain to go | :27:28. | :27:31. | |
abroad, undertake military training, fight and kill people, should come | :27:32. | :27:35. | |
back to the UK and not face sanctions? It is a complicated | :27:36. | :27:38. | |
situation. The concern I have is that the Government are not doing | :27:39. | :27:45. | |
anything to discourage individuals from going out there in the first | :27:46. | :27:48. | |
place, so you can go online, Google search groups like the main foreign | :27:49. | :27:52. | |
fighters' organisation, go to their Facebook account, make contact with | :27:53. | :27:57. | |
them, for 400 or ?600 you can book a flight and be out there in a week's | :27:58. | :28:02. | |
time, that is what happened to my constituent, who was working in a | :28:03. | :28:05. | |
care home in Newark one week and a couple of days later was on the | :28:06. | :28:12. | |
being trained to be a fighter with the YPG. To be clear, you are not | :28:13. | :28:18. | |
encouraging these people to go out and fight, even if they are fighting | :28:19. | :28:22. | |
against IS. Are you saying the Government is doing that by not | :28:23. | :28:25. | |
stating the dangers of the other side? It is all over the place. We | :28:26. | :28:29. | |
are not discouraging people from going out there, you can give the | :28:30. | :28:32. | |
throw and tell the immigration officer what you are doing and they | :28:33. | :28:35. | |
will allow you onto the plane, and get when you come back some | :28:36. | :28:39. | |
individuals will pass freely through immigration | :28:40. | :28:51. | |
into the country, and others, like my constituent, will be arrested | :28:52. | :28:54. | |
under the terrorism act, questioned, potentially charged with a very | :28:55. | :28:56. | |
serious offence, and have it on their record for the rest of their | :28:57. | :28:59. | |
life. You are saying they should be stopped from going in the first | :29:00. | :29:02. | |
phase, not go and be allowed to come back? We should have a policy that | :29:03. | :29:04. | |
stops you from going in the first phase and treat you fairly and | :29:05. | :29:07. | |
consistently when you come back. Meaning you should be arrested and | :29:08. | :29:10. | |
face some sort of sanction? You should be questioned because we | :29:11. | :29:13. | |
don't do what these individuals are doing out there but you should not | :29:14. | :29:17. | |
be charged under the terrorism activities would be lulled all you | :29:18. | :29:20. | |
have done is bike with our allies. These are individuals, many using | :29:21. | :29:26. | |
British aircraft, giving them cover out in the field but are charged | :29:27. | :29:30. | |
with terrorism on their return. Are you surprised to hear there are | :29:31. | :29:34. | |
individuals who do explain their legitimate, as they see it, reasons | :29:35. | :29:37. | |
for going out to fight, even if it is against IS on the side of the | :29:38. | :29:42. | |
Peshmerga, and then being allowed to go? I'm not surprised they want to | :29:43. | :29:47. | |
go. But are you surprised they are allowed to go? I don't see how you | :29:48. | :29:51. | |
could prevent them if they are fighting with our allies. But how do | :29:52. | :29:55. | |
we know they are acting legally? We do not know which militias they will | :29:56. | :29:59. | |
be fighting with and the rules of engagement. That is true, it is | :30:00. | :30:03. | |
right I would question them coming back because you have to make it | :30:04. | :30:11. | |
clear who they are fighting for but if it is established that they are | :30:12. | :30:13. | |
fighting with our allies I don't see how you should treat them on the | :30:14. | :30:16. | |
same basis as people fighting for IS. How would you feel it in terms | :30:17. | :30:19. | |
of treatment of these people when they come back? I think the question | :30:20. | :30:22. | |
of going out is a difficult one because how do you know they are | :30:23. | :30:25. | |
telling the truth? You are hardly going to go to the immigration | :30:26. | :30:28. | |
officer and say, I'm going to join Isis. They could say anything, so | :30:29. | :30:34. | |
you don't know. As you say, it is hugely complicated and of course | :30:35. | :30:37. | |
there are so many different groups in Syria, so how do we know which | :30:38. | :30:42. | |
people they are going to get involved with? That is a key point | :30:43. | :30:46. | |
because the YPG, the most popular group British citizens have gone out | :30:47. | :30:50. | |
to, there are widely diverging views on this group. Some people glorify | :30:51. | :30:55. | |
their actions as brave individuals fighting against IS, Amnesty | :30:56. | :30:58. | |
International think they are guilty of war crimes, the Turkish | :30:59. | :31:01. | |
Government claim they are allied to the PKK and over the weekend we | :31:02. | :31:06. | |
heard two British nationals and an Irish citizen were arrested crossing | :31:07. | :31:09. | |
from Syria back into Iraq having been with the YPG, and we | :31:10. | :31:28. | |
presume it is under diplomatic pressure from Turkey to the Iraqi | :31:29. | :31:32. | |
Government to discourage people from doing this, so British citizens have | :31:33. | :31:34. | |
got to understand they are getting themselves into a war zone and an | :31:35. | :31:36. | |
extremely complex political and diplomatic situation, and I think it | :31:37. | :31:38. | |
is incumbent on the British Government to discourage citizens | :31:39. | :31:41. | |
from doing that. All of these groups could be interpreted as terrorists | :31:42. | :31:43. | |
or freedom fighters. The years we have had protocols about the | :31:44. | :31:45. | |
circumstances, haven't we? But the other aspects of the new way of | :31:46. | :31:49. | |
doing things is the use of drones. I'm a member of the joint committee | :31:50. | :31:54. | |
on human rights in the house, and we have been conducting an inquiry into | :31:55. | :31:57. | |
the use of drones because the Government has no real policy about | :31:58. | :32:02. | |
that either. There are many things that have arisen through these | :32:03. | :32:06. | |
Middle East conflict in more recent times. And we are playing catch up. | :32:07. | :32:12. | |
It is also to do with the rise of social media and the Internet. It | :32:13. | :32:19. | |
has never been so easy to go online and find out about a conflict in | :32:20. | :32:23. | |
another part of the world, and to be on a plane out there. | :32:24. | :32:27. | |
The good old high street betting shop is under threat, according | :32:28. | :32:29. | |
But is a flutter at the bookies harmless fun, | :32:30. | :32:32. | |
We'll be discussing that in a moment, but first, | :32:33. | :32:36. | |
here's Malcolm George from the Association of British | :32:37. | :32:38. | |
Britain, we are told, is awash with opportunities to gamble. | :32:39. | :32:44. | |
Online, in casinos, at bingo, in arcades. | :32:45. | :32:48. | |
But one sector seems to unfairly attract more attention than any | :32:49. | :32:51. | |
Casinos are now more accessible than they've ever been before. | :32:52. | :33:00. | |
This casino in Central London has an open-door policy, | :33:01. | :33:04. | |
which means you can walk straight in and gamble right away. | :33:05. | :33:08. | |
But for their roulette, the stake limit is an eye-watering ?5,000. | :33:09. | :33:15. | |
If you are over 16, you can buy as many National Lottery | :33:16. | :33:20. | |
scratch cards as you want, but the staff are not trained | :33:21. | :33:23. | |
If you do have problems, there's no information about where to go. | :33:24. | :33:30. | |
But one sector seems to unfairly attract more | :33:31. | :33:34. | |
attention than any other - high street bookies. | :33:35. | :33:38. | |
Staff can monitor what everyone is staking, winning or losing, | :33:39. | :33:49. | |
and if someone is starting to bet more than usual. | :33:50. | :33:52. | |
Of course, people can develop problems, but staff here are trained | :33:53. | :33:55. | |
There's a plethora of information about how to get help, | :33:56. | :34:01. | |
and a self-exclusion system, so a punter can bar themselves. | :34:02. | :34:06. | |
A bookmaker's is the safest place to have a flutter, | :34:07. | :34:10. | |
but high street bookies are closing at a rate of close to one a day. | :34:11. | :34:14. | |
Regulation, taxes and myth-spinning are combining to kill off | :34:15. | :34:19. | |
If they die out, then the safest place to gamble will disappear. | :34:20. | :34:35. | |
Welcome. Are you saying that betting is the lesser of evils in terms of | :34:36. | :34:48. | |
gambling, or that the Keys perform a social good? It is a mixture of the | :34:49. | :34:55. | |
two. Betting has existed for hundreds of years. It is the | :34:56. | :35:00. | |
location that you put it in and the support mechanism that you put in | :35:01. | :35:03. | |
place. Once you move out of that, yes, bookies social environment, a | :35:04. | :35:10. | |
place where people have fun and a flutter. The interaction with staff | :35:11. | :35:15. | |
makes it a very safe environment. But you can still rack up tens of | :35:16. | :35:20. | |
thousands of pounds in debt. You talk about being able to gamble an | :35:21. | :35:26. | |
eye watering ?5,000 at casinos, but fixed odd terminals allow people to | :35:27. | :35:32. | |
bet up to ?100, in spite of restrictions introduced last year. | :35:33. | :35:40. | |
Roulette is ?5,000 per spin. Why is it a safer place to have a flutter? | :35:41. | :35:47. | |
Our staff are trained. 90% is ?50 and below. The average loss in | :35:48. | :35:57. | |
quasi-pozmack constituency is ?7. You said that ?7 is the average in | :35:58. | :36:07. | |
that constituency, but there was a case of a man who took his own life | :36:08. | :36:11. | |
after racking up debts in a bookmakers. So it can happen. Though | :36:12. | :36:22. | |
vast majority of people with a problem can gamble in lots of | :36:23. | :36:26. | |
different areas. If you take away bookmakers, those people would | :36:27. | :36:30. | |
gamble elsewhere. It could be online, in concealers or other | :36:31. | :36:36. | |
bookies. But the environment of the bookmakers, combined with the staff | :36:37. | :36:39. | |
interaction, makes it genuinely the safest place to gamble. Are you | :36:40. | :36:45. | |
convinced, Margaret Prosser? Is it a loss to the high street, losing | :36:46. | :36:51. | |
these bookies? The way I look at it is, we have people who are desperate | :36:52. | :36:56. | |
alcoholics who drink far too much and drink every day. No one is | :36:57. | :37:00. | |
suggesting we should close every pub or wine bar. I think we have to keep | :37:01. | :37:07. | |
these things in proportion. Clearly, the ability of staff to watch out | :37:08. | :37:14. | |
when somebody they can see is in trouble, the availability of | :37:15. | :37:18. | |
councillors, the willingness of the person themselves to go for | :37:19. | :37:22. | |
counselling, all of that has to be thrown into the mix. I don't think | :37:23. | :37:27. | |
closing down betting shops is going to change any of that, really. The | :37:28. | :37:32. | |
only thing I would say is, you ought to go into a betting shop with your | :37:33. | :37:37. | |
eyes wide open. As my mum used to say, you never see a bookie on a | :37:38. | :37:47. | |
bike! Very wise. It's true. Kwasi Kwarteng, bookmakers have been | :37:48. | :37:53. | |
described as the fixed odds betting terminals as sirens on the rocks of | :37:54. | :37:58. | |
the week will. Has she got a point was blue Margaret made a very good | :37:59. | :38:05. | |
point about pubs. We have people who have serious problems with alcohol | :38:06. | :38:08. | |
addiction, but no one is suggesting we should ban pubs. Generally, most | :38:09. | :38:14. | |
people have some degree of self control. We are not talking about | :38:15. | :38:21. | |
banning them. But perhaps, as a result of other circumstances, they | :38:22. | :38:26. | |
are beginning to close down. Should there be more regulation, | :38:27. | :38:29. | |
particularly on fixed-odds betting terminal is, that seem to feed | :38:30. | :38:33. | |
addiction? I think there shouldn't be. The big problem facing due is | :38:34. | :38:38. | |
the competition from online betting. That's the same as any retail | :38:39. | :38:45. | |
outlet, if that's what you describe your business as. Every retailer on | :38:46. | :38:49. | |
the high street is under the same pressure from online competition. Is | :38:50. | :38:55. | |
that just the way it is going to go. You can defend your corner of the | :38:56. | :39:00. | |
community in that way, but in the end, it may be overtaken by | :39:01. | :39:05. | |
technology what ever you do? That is the challenge for policy. All | :39:06. | :39:09. | |
sectors of the industry pay significant tax. What needs to be | :39:10. | :39:14. | |
decided is the balance. With the range of gambling options, where is | :39:15. | :39:18. | |
it best for people to gamble? And does the betting shop defied | :39:19. | :39:23. | |
potentially the best environment? That is the challenge for policy | :39:24. | :39:27. | |
makers. If things continue, we are going to see a decline. Is it better | :39:28. | :39:32. | |
for society that gamblers who use betting shops now move into other | :39:33. | :39:37. | |
environments, which may not be as safe? Thank you very much. | :39:38. | :39:40. | |
Let's have a look now at some of the big events likely to be | :39:41. | :39:43. | |
making the political weather this week. | :39:44. | :39:45. | |
Today is your last chance to register to vote if you want | :39:46. | :39:48. | |
to take part in the Welsh, Scottish or Northern Ireland | :39:49. | :39:50. | |
elections or local, mayoral and Police Commissioner | :39:51. | :39:52. | |
Resident Commonwealth and European Union citizens | :39:53. | :39:54. | |
Union will decide whether to formally recommend a vote to stay | :39:55. | :40:02. | |
in the European Union at a closed session of their conference. | :40:03. | :40:06. | |
Commons clash between Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn and David Cameron | :40:07. | :40:11. | |
Scottish National Party will launch its manifesto for | :40:12. | :40:18. | |
Later in the week, US President Barack Obama is in London - | :40:19. | :40:25. | |
on Thursday he'll meet the Queen, who will be | :40:26. | :40:28. | |
He's also expected to make his much-publicised intervention | :40:29. | :40:34. | |
in the EU referendum debate, saying he believes Britain | :40:35. | :40:38. | |
We're joined now by two political journalists enjoying the bracing | :40:39. | :40:44. | |
spring air on College Green outside Parliament. | :40:45. | :40:47. | |
It's the closest they'll get to a holiday this side | :40:48. | :40:49. | |
it's Rafael Behr of the Guardian and Sebastian Payne | :40:50. | :40:53. | |
Welcome to you both. Rafael Behr the first day of official campaigning | :40:54. | :41:08. | |
was on Friday. Doris attacked the Prime Minister and his allies with | :41:09. | :41:14. | |
both barrels. -- Boris Johnson attacked. This rift is only going to | :41:15. | :41:20. | |
deepen further in the coming weeks. Yes, and it's hard to see how the | :41:21. | :41:25. | |
two bits of the Conservative Party will put themselves back together. | :41:26. | :41:28. | |
Going back to the end of last year, there was quite a lot of optimism in | :41:29. | :41:33. | |
number ten and among the Conservative whips that somehow the | :41:34. | :41:37. | |
Tories would just agree to disagree about this amicably. Then it would | :41:38. | :41:42. | |
be a comfortable win for Remain, and everyone could just muddle through | :41:43. | :41:46. | |
afterwards. Even when Michael Gove went off and joined the Leave | :41:47. | :41:52. | |
campaign, number ten people were saying, this will be civilised, | :41:53. | :41:56. | |
because he is a friend of the Prime Minister. That is now completely | :41:57. | :42:00. | |
forgotten, and the levels of animosity and passion are very, very | :42:01. | :42:05. | |
high. The things people are saying behind the scene is so toxic and | :42:06. | :42:09. | |
poisonous, it could get very nasty indeed in the next six weeks. Do you | :42:10. | :42:16. | |
agree that it has now got so toxic, Sebastian Payne, that it will be | :42:17. | :42:20. | |
impossible to pull the relations together after the European | :42:21. | :42:23. | |
referendum? It will be fascinating to see what the party does next. | :42:24. | :42:29. | |
Eurosceptic MPs do feel it has become very angry very quickly. What | :42:30. | :42:33. | |
we have seen today with the Treasury figures, saying that every household | :42:34. | :42:36. | |
will be ?4,300 worse off, that is the project max here we keep hearing | :42:37. | :42:45. | |
about. -- project fear. The way they are arguing about it is what we are | :42:46. | :42:49. | |
going to see every day in this campaign. The government says | :42:50. | :42:55. | |
something, and the Out campaign say the opposite. There is an important | :42:56. | :43:00. | |
personal driver. A lot of the public are saying that they don't have the | :43:01. | :43:06. | |
facts and they don't know what to think. For both sides, lots depends | :43:07. | :43:12. | |
on the message givers. If you are on the Leave side, to achieve your goal | :43:13. | :43:16. | |
of getting out of the EU, you have to destroy the credibility of the | :43:17. | :43:21. | |
Prime Minister. It's very difficult. Ukip don't mind doing that anyway, | :43:22. | :43:27. | |
but you now have a section of the Conservative Party whose biggest | :43:28. | :43:30. | |
political objective is to tarnish the reputation of the Prime | :43:31. | :43:35. | |
Minister. And that is very serious. To some extent, it is unavoidable. | :43:36. | :43:40. | |
How else do you drive that message home if you don't say that what the | :43:41. | :43:44. | |
other side is saying is complete nonsense? Absolutely. Look at what | :43:45. | :43:50. | |
Boris Johnson has been saying. He is a format schoolmate and colleague of | :43:51. | :43:56. | |
the Prime Minister. What we are seeing now is a lot of those | :43:57. | :44:00. | |
tensions coming into the public, and number ten and Downing Street are | :44:01. | :44:03. | |
keen to discredit what the outers are saying, saying that they do not | :44:04. | :44:07. | |
live in reality and don't understand what is going on. It will get a lot | :44:08. | :44:13. | |
worse. It will get more personal. The outer is really do see this, | :44:14. | :44:18. | |
they are attacking the personalities of the people involved. George | :44:19. | :44:23. | |
Osborne was saying today, did he really believe that Brexit was not | :44:24. | :44:29. | |
-- was going to be an option? I think on the outside there's a lot | :44:30. | :44:33. | |
of anger towards In people, who say they are keeping all options open, | :44:34. | :44:38. | |
where is in fact, they were remainders all along. Thank you. | :44:39. | :44:43. | |
Only six or seven weeks of this to go! Kwasi, would you use the | :44:44. | :44:49. | |
language that Stuart Jackson used in his tweet, that George Osborne is a | :44:50. | :44:55. | |
hypocrite? I didn't see the tweet. I don't think that personal abuse is | :44:56. | :45:01. | |
helpful. Temperature -- obviously, tempers are fraying. I do believe | :45:02. | :45:05. | |
that the party would come together. If you are calling the Prime | :45:06. | :45:12. | |
Minister the Gerald Ratner of modern politics, and on the other side, | :45:13. | :45:18. | |
George Osborne is saying it is nonsense economics. Illiterate that | :45:19. | :45:22. | |
you and your colleagues are for saying we should come out. How do | :45:23. | :45:27. | |
you reconcile that? Somebody put it to me, a rugby player, that if you | :45:28. | :45:31. | |
have a very hard rugby match... You are playing the people, not the | :45:32. | :45:37. | |
ball. You are playing a complex match. That does not mean that the | :45:38. | :45:41. | |
party will not come together. I think it will. When we look at the | :45:42. | :45:45. | |
contrast with Labour, with Jeremy Corbyn, that will unite the party. | :45:46. | :45:51. | |
Can the Prime Minister legitimately be in the negotiating team in the | :45:52. | :45:57. | |
event the UK votes to come out? I don't see why not. Do you think it | :45:58. | :46:03. | |
is likely to happen? I don't know, I don't know what is going on in his | :46:04. | :46:06. | |
head, what his motivation is, whether he would be motivated to | :46:07. | :46:11. | |
stay on, but I don't see any logical reason why he shouldn't be part of | :46:12. | :46:14. | |
the team. Would it be credible for the Leeds side, somebody who has | :46:15. | :46:22. | |
campaigned to stay in, would then be part of the trade deal to come out? | :46:23. | :46:27. | |
I don't have a problem with it. Ken Clarke said Mr Cameron will not last | :46:28. | :46:31. | |
30 seconds in his job if we vote to leave. The Prime Minister has a huge | :46:32. | :46:37. | |
fund of goodwill, it is remarkable that he achieved a majority after 23 | :46:38. | :46:41. | |
years in which the Conservatives had not had one, and he is a very | :46:42. | :46:47. | |
powerful political figure so I don't see why he cannot carry on. | :46:48. | :46:51. | |
Now, the fast food chain McDonalds says | :46:52. | :46:53. | |
it's disappointed that Labour's ruling body has decided to ban it | :46:54. | :46:55. | |
from running a stand at the party's annual conference. | :46:56. | :47:04. | |
According to the Sun On Sunday, the company wanted to set up | :47:05. | :47:07. | |
an "interactive experience" display to support British farm produce | :47:08. | :47:09. | |
The Tories and SNP have allowed McDonalds to set up similar stands | :47:10. | :47:13. | |
at their conferences, and vetoing the stand | :47:14. | :47:15. | |
will reportedly cost the party ?30,000. | :47:16. | :47:16. | |
It's a decision that's angered some Labour MPs. | :47:17. | :47:21. | |
The former minister Ian Austin tweeted: | :47:22. | :47:42. | |
And Walthamstow MP Stella Creasey said she found McDonald's the best | :47:43. | :47:44. | |
Well, Labour says it doesn't comment on its commercial decisions | :47:45. | :47:51. | |
but my guest of the day Margaret Prosser is a former | :47:52. | :47:54. | |
Was it wise to turn down 30 grand? No! We are not in a position to be | :47:55. | :48:03. | |
turning down money. But, having said that, clearly if you have got a | :48:04. | :48:06. | |
principled position then money has to come second. But what is a | :48:07. | :48:10. | |
principled position against McDonald's? I don't get it. I was | :48:11. | :48:15. | |
hoping you did and you would be able to tell us! My view is, you look at | :48:16. | :48:20. | |
an organisation in the round. One of the things that McDonald's is famous | :48:21. | :48:24. | |
for is almost every year coming in the top ten of good employers. They | :48:25. | :48:30. | |
are good employers, they provide apprenticeships and trading, some of | :48:31. | :48:34. | |
us might be sniffy about the idea of flipping burgers for a living but | :48:35. | :48:38. | |
lots of people do it and the way in which McDonald's conduct themselves | :48:39. | :48:42. | |
with their workforce is really pretty good. Do you think it is a | :48:43. | :48:47. | |
snobby attitude? It is a snobby attitude. You'd think it is just | :48:48. | :48:54. | |
snobbery turning down ?30,000? I think it is a mixture of a snobby | :48:55. | :48:59. | |
attitude and somebody looking for a healthier option. What would you say | :49:00. | :49:04. | |
to the NEC? It is the executive that made the decision, isn't it? I would | :49:05. | :49:08. | |
have argued, let's look at how much money they have got in the bank | :49:09. | :49:11. | |
year. Do you think they will change their minds? It sounds like the | :49:12. | :49:15. | |
decision has been made. I don't think they would because the NEC | :49:16. | :49:20. | |
would have to do that and I think it is as it is. Do you think they | :49:21. | :49:24. | |
should explain why? They said they do not make comments on commercial | :49:25. | :49:27. | |
decisions, does it sound like they don't want to say the reason behind | :49:28. | :49:32. | |
it? We are not talking about discussing a contract or something, | :49:33. | :49:35. | |
which clearly do not want to see discussed, but to just say, I can't | :49:36. | :49:40. | |
see why they cannot say why they have made that decision. It doesn't | :49:41. | :49:44. | |
seem to me that it ought to be top secret. In your mind it is the wrong | :49:45. | :49:49. | |
decision? I think so, yes. What do you say, Kwasi? I don't understand | :49:50. | :49:55. | |
it, McDonald's is a respected company that employs thousands of | :49:56. | :49:59. | |
people, Ian Austin said his first job was there, people generally like | :50:00. | :50:03. | |
the product, it is a successful company, I don't understand what | :50:04. | :50:06. | |
they would turn them away. On the snobby side, what do you think of | :50:07. | :50:11. | |
Wes streeting saying it is not exactly a falafel bar, what is he | :50:12. | :50:15. | |
trying to say? I think he is trying to imply that certain people would | :50:16. | :50:21. | |
only find themselves in a falafel bar or some equivalent. If it were | :50:22. | :50:25. | |
reading or dangerous for the Labour Party to be seen in that now take | :50:26. | :50:30. | |
drinking Islington residing falafel eating non-McDonald's eating why? I | :50:31. | :50:35. | |
don't think it is helpful, particularly as huge numbers of the | :50:36. | :50:39. | |
members will not be in that class, shall we say. In that vein, the | :50:40. | :50:44. | |
Tories are famous for having a champagne bar and Harvey Nichols... | :50:45. | :50:48. | |
I don't know what you are talking about! Do these things matter at | :50:49. | :50:55. | |
conferences? I think some people get very, very tied upon this, and | :50:56. | :50:59. | |
actually a week or two after the conference no-one cares. Usually | :51:00. | :51:05. | |
because they are too drunk to care! As a journalist you can speak for | :51:06. | :51:10. | |
yourself! I am only the one reporting and following on this! But | :51:11. | :51:15. | |
there is a worrying point about Labour being anti-business, it is | :51:16. | :51:18. | |
worrying they should be so hostile to McDonald's, it is extraordinary | :51:19. | :51:21. | |
to me. I would like to know the reason why they have turned down | :51:22. | :51:24. | |
McDonald's because I think it is a myth that people like you, Kwasi, | :51:25. | :51:30. | |
like to generate and continue to grow that we are anti-business, | :51:31. | :51:33. | |
because I don't think, there is no evidence for that. If the Labour | :51:34. | :51:40. | |
Party would like to offer a full response, they can do so any time! I | :51:41. | :51:42. | |
shall see what I can find out! Now, whose opinion will you listen | :51:43. | :51:45. | |
to when it comes to casting your As we've amply demonstrated this | :51:46. | :51:48. | |
morning voters are being bombarded with information, statistics | :51:49. | :51:52. | |
and perhaps even a bit of rhetoric from politicians | :51:53. | :51:54. | |
and campaigners on both sides. But if you don't fancy listening | :51:55. | :51:58. | |
to George Osborne or Boris Johnson, could a celebrity convince you one | :51:59. | :52:02. | |
way or another? Let's have a look at some | :52:03. | :52:05. | |
of the famous faces to have publicly Former England cricketer Ian Botham | :52:06. | :52:08. | |
came out for the Leave campaign yesterday, saying Britain has "lost | :52:09. | :52:14. | |
the right to govern itself, to make our own laws | :52:15. | :52:20. | |
and to choose who comes here". Also in the Leave camp | :52:21. | :52:22. | |
is Downton Abbey creator and Conservative peer | :52:23. | :52:24. | |
Julian Fellowes, who claims remaining in the EU | :52:25. | :52:27. | |
would be like "chaining yourself to a radiator | :52:28. | :52:28. | |
in a burning building". And the Oscar-winning | :52:29. | :52:33. | |
actor Michael Caine, who says we "cannot be dictated | :52:34. | :52:37. | |
to by thousands of faceless civil Backing the campaign | :52:38. | :52:40. | |
to stay in the EU are TV presenter Jeremy Clarkson - | :52:41. | :52:47. | |
he thinks "Britain, on its own, has little influence | :52:48. | :52:49. | |
on the world stage". He's joined by Virgin | :52:50. | :52:51. | |
boss Richard Branson, who says leaving the EU would be | :52:52. | :52:53. | |
"very damaging" for Britain. And the actress Emma Thompson | :52:54. | :52:58. | |
who argues we'd be "mad not to" stay And in the last hour Ian Botham has | :52:59. | :53:10. | |
been speaking to the BBC about his decision to back the British exit. | :53:11. | :53:22. | |
It is an island. Remember that and be proud to be English. The economy, | :53:23. | :53:26. | |
economics, we are hearing this number and that number but I think | :53:27. | :53:30. | |
with ?350 million plus per week going into the EU, getting 50% back | :53:31. | :53:36. | |
if you are lucky, it is a lot of money and maybe we could address a | :53:37. | :53:39. | |
lot of our own problems with that money. | :53:40. | :53:41. | |
So do celebrity endorsements really change the way people vote? | :53:42. | :53:43. | |
To discuss this we're joined by the psychotherapist Lucy Beresford. | :53:44. | :53:46. | |
Welcome back to the Daily Politics. Do people listen to celebrities? | :53:47. | :53:53. | |
They do, all the time, not least because so much of our | :53:54. | :53:56. | |
decision-making is unconscious, so it is not so much that we listen to | :53:57. | :53:59. | |
the celebrity but that we are paying attention without realising it to | :54:00. | :54:03. | |
our emotional connection to that celebrity. Much more likely than | :54:04. | :54:07. | |
when people listen to politicians, for example? Yes, though your own | :54:08. | :54:11. | |
party political persuasion will mean you have allegiance to some people, | :54:12. | :54:14. | |
but in terms of celebrities it is very | :54:15. | :54:36. | |
much more under the radar. Does it depend on the celebrity how deeply | :54:37. | :54:40. | |
you listen to it, even subconsciously? Yes, and it depends | :54:41. | :54:42. | |
on whether that celebrity appears to fit with what they are talking | :54:43. | :54:45. | |
about. You can see why someone like Ian Botham, for example, might | :54:46. | :54:47. | |
favour Brexit because he has had a career which is very much about | :54:48. | :54:50. | |
leading from the front and being a bit of a maverick, a have an | :54:51. | :54:52. | |
emotional attachment to him that goes all the if you have an | :54:53. | :54:54. | |
emotional attachment to him that goes all the you think, this guyto | :54:55. | :54:57. | |
events at Headingley in 1981 and you have a powerful connection, you | :54:58. | :54:59. | |
think, this him and pay attention. If you don't know who we use because | :55:00. | :55:03. | |
you are too young or you think he is just a has-been sportsman, you won't | :55:04. | :55:05. | |
pay attention in the same way. Does it liberate people if what the | :55:06. | :55:08. | |
celebrity says resonates in a way you describe with Ian Botham, does | :55:09. | :55:11. | |
it mean they are free to boys their own opinions? I think they decide | :55:12. | :55:13. | |
that they don't have to pay attention to this too carefully, | :55:14. | :55:16. | |
they can just pass their allegiance over to someone else and get them to | :55:17. | :55:20. | |
do the talking. If you have got something as obligated as this kind | :55:21. | :55:26. | |
of reverend, where there are so many facts and figures being thrown at | :55:27. | :55:29. | |
you, not least today, a lot of people think, because we are group | :55:30. | :55:33. | |
creatures be preferred to the like belonged, we find it hard to run | :55:34. | :55:37. | |
against the herd, so if we find a celebrity that appeals to us we will | :55:38. | :55:43. | |
follow what they said. Do you agree celebrity endorsements are | :55:44. | :55:47. | |
important? I think they can cut through, I just about old enough to | :55:48. | :55:52. | |
remember 1981! I was six years old. What he did, for cricket lovers... | :55:53. | :55:58. | |
He was a hero. It will never be forgotten, people will identify with | :55:59. | :56:03. | |
that. I agree, I think people do, certain people will be really swayed | :56:04. | :56:09. | |
by Emma Thompson, because she stands for different approaches, different | :56:10. | :56:13. | |
attitudes towards politics and the way society is organised, etc, so | :56:14. | :56:18. | |
some people will be very influenced by that, I would have thought. What | :56:19. | :56:23. | |
about the politicians, because this band 's political spectrum is, you | :56:24. | :56:26. | |
have got people for in and for out across the political borders, but on | :56:27. | :56:32. | |
your side, is Nigel Farage an asset or not? He is an asset for people | :56:33. | :56:39. | |
who like him. I think he is a very marmite politician, someone who | :56:40. | :56:41. | |
people have very strong feelings about, and there will be lots of | :56:42. | :56:45. | |
people who trust him on this issue, and there may be people who are less | :56:46. | :56:49. | |
persuaded by him. What about George Galloway? Again, and maverick | :56:50. | :56:57. | |
politician, very idiosyncratic, very individual, and people may respond | :56:58. | :57:01. | |
to them. Tony Blair for the state campaign? He is pretty much | :57:02. | :57:07. | |
yesterday's man. You could argue that. What about Tony Blair? Those | :57:08. | :57:15. | |
of us who have stuck with Tony Blair through thick and thin will still be | :57:16. | :57:18. | |
influenced by that but there are many people who take a very | :57:19. | :57:22. | |
different view. He has become something of a Marmite character, I | :57:23. | :57:28. | |
think. What about Jeremy Clarkson? Would he repel or attract? I think | :57:29. | :57:33. | |
you would repel as many as it would attract. He is a love him or hate | :57:34. | :57:40. | |
him person. And that is why the celebrity chosen has to be so | :57:41. | :57:43. | |
carefully done, because you can have those characters that are very | :57:44. | :57:46. | |
divisive or if somebody else comes in you would think, I would never | :57:47. | :57:50. | |
have thought the Spice Girls would have supported Margaret Thatcher, or | :57:51. | :57:54. | |
whatever Ralph, so it catches you by surprise and if you are in favour of | :57:55. | :57:58. | |
those people do think, yes, I will pay attention to what you say, where | :57:59. | :58:02. | |
somebody is some thing Haka somebody says something and you don't see the | :58:03. | :58:11. | |
connection, people can really do that -- whereas if somebody says | :58:12. | :58:17. | |
something and you don't see the connection. People don't respond on | :58:18. | :58:18. | |
a rational level. There's just time before we go | :58:19. | :58:21. | |
to find out the answer to our quiz. The question was who is eligible | :58:22. | :58:24. | |
to vote in the by-election taking place today to elect | :58:25. | :58:27. | |
a new Liberal Democrat Or D) all three Lib Dem | :58:28. | :58:29. | |
hereditary peers? This is going to be hugely | :58:30. | :58:45. | |
embarrassing... I think it is all peers. It's not! It is certainly | :58:46. | :58:53. | |
not. I think it is Lib Dem Herod Tory peers. Yes, just the three Lib | :58:54. | :58:58. | |
Dem hereditary peers, there are more people going for it than there are | :58:59. | :59:01. | |
voting for them! But that is all we have got time for, goodbye! | :59:02. | :59:06. | |
You look like you've just seen the Grim Reaper. | :59:07. | :59:09. | |
Well, it was a lot to take in, wasn't it? | :59:10. | :59:12. |