Browse content similar to 19/07/2016. Check below for episodes and series from the same categories and more!
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Hello and welcome to the Daily Politics. | :00:35. | :00:36. | |
Theresa May holds her first Cabinet meeting as Prime Minister and says | :00:37. | :00:39. | |
want social justice to be the primary focus of her leadership. | :00:40. | :00:46. | |
After MPs handed Theresa May an overwhelming victory last night | :00:47. | :00:48. | |
over Trident renewal, the Prime Minister's been | :00:49. | :00:51. | |
meeting her top team for the first Cabinet meeting since she took | :00:52. | :00:54. | |
Jeremy Corbyn was on the losing side of the argument in yesterday's | :00:55. | :01:01. | |
debate and Labour MPs lined up to criticise his stance on Trident. | :01:02. | :01:04. | |
However, a new poll shows his support is as strong as ever, | :01:05. | :01:09. | |
so are his leadership challengers doomed to fail? | :01:10. | :01:13. | |
Remainers said it would damage our long-term prospects. | :01:14. | :01:18. | |
Leavers said it would provide a boost to our fortunes. | :01:19. | :01:20. | |
We examine the impact that Brexit will have on the health | :01:21. | :01:23. | |
And Donald Trump has his moment in the sun | :01:24. | :01:34. | |
as he hosts the Republican convention in Cleveland. | :01:35. | :01:36. | |
But can he reach out beyond his core supporters? | :01:37. | :01:45. | |
With us for the whole of the programme today is the former | :01:46. | :01:50. | |
Chancellor of the Exchequer Ken Clarke. | :01:51. | :01:54. | |
He recently said that Theresa May was a "bloody difficult woman" | :01:55. | :01:57. | |
and that Michael Gove would start three wars at once. | :01:58. | :01:59. | |
We would like to encourage that level of candour throughout | :02:00. | :02:02. | |
The House of Commons has overwhelmingly backed | :02:03. | :02:08. | |
the renewal of the UK's Trident nuclear weapons system. | :02:09. | :02:11. | |
The vote approves the manufacture of four replacement submarines | :02:12. | :02:13. | |
at a current estimated cost of ?31 billion. | :02:14. | :02:19. | |
The vote came after Theresa May, in her first Commons speech | :02:20. | :02:22. | |
as Prime Minister, confirmed she would be prepared to authorise | :02:23. | :02:25. | |
The vote also highlighted deep splits within the Labour Party | :02:26. | :02:30. | |
with more than half of its MPs going against the leader | :02:31. | :02:33. | |
Mr Speaker, we have waited long enough. | :02:34. | :02:44. | |
It is time to get on with building the next generation | :02:45. | :02:51. | |
It is time to take this essential decision to deter the most extreme | :02:52. | :02:54. | |
threats to our society, and preserve our way of life | :02:55. | :02:57. | |
Our nuclear weapons are driving proliferation, not the opposite. | :02:58. | :03:01. | |
Sadly she, and some members of the Labour Party, seem | :03:02. | :03:05. | |
to be the first to defend the country's enemies, | :03:06. | :03:08. | |
and the last to actually accept the capabilities... | :03:09. | :03:12. | |
Is she personally prepared to authorise a nuclear | :03:13. | :03:17. | |
strike that could kill 100,000 innocent men, | :03:18. | :03:18. | |
And I have to say to the honourable gentleman, the whole point | :03:19. | :03:26. | |
of a deterrent is that our enemies need to know that we would be | :03:27. | :03:29. | |
We on these benches, despite our differences on some | :03:30. | :03:34. | |
issues, have always argued for the aim of | :03:35. | :03:36. | |
We might differ on how it's going to be achieved, | :03:37. | :03:42. | |
but we are united in our commitment to that end. | :03:43. | :03:45. | |
I do not believe the threat of mass murder is a legitimate | :03:46. | :03:49. | |
way to go about dealing with international relations. | :03:50. | :03:52. | |
For the official opposition to have a free vote on a matter | :03:53. | :03:57. | |
of such strategic national importance is a terrible indictment | :03:58. | :04:01. | |
of how far this once great party has fallen. | :04:02. | :04:07. | |
But what Labour's current front bench are doing is not principled. | :04:08. | :04:10. | |
It shows contempt for the public, for party members, and often, | :04:11. | :04:15. | |
The possession of the nuclear deterrent may be unpleasant, | :04:16. | :04:21. | |
but it's an unpleasant necessity, the purpose of which lies not in it | :04:22. | :04:27. | |
ever being fired, but in its nature as the ultimate insurance policy | :04:28. | :04:31. | |
against unpredictable future existential threats. | :04:32. | :04:36. | |
It is obscene that the priority of this government and sadly too | :04:37. | :04:39. | |
many people on the Labour benches, at a time of Tory austerity | :04:40. | :04:43. | |
and economic uncertainty following the EU referendum, | :04:44. | :04:49. | |
is to spend billions of pounds on outdated nuclear weapons | :04:50. | :04:51. | |
but we do not want, do not need and could never use. | :04:52. | :05:01. | |
Well to discuss the vote we've been joined by the former | :05:02. | :05:04. | |
Shadow Foreign Secretary Hilary Benn. | :05:05. | :05:07. | |
Welcome. Before I come to you, it was a trick, there was no need for a | :05:08. | :05:17. | |
vote at this time, it was only really done to expose divisions in | :05:18. | :05:23. | |
Hilary Benn's party? I do not know why David originally chose this | :05:24. | :05:27. | |
timing but there is no need for anybody to expose divisions in the | :05:28. | :05:31. | |
Labour Party now, they are there for all to see and do the interests of | :05:32. | :05:36. | |
clarity, it has probably helped the Labour Party to get over this. It | :05:37. | :05:42. | |
was an obstacle in their path. They knew they would have a painful day | :05:43. | :05:47. | |
and at least we know where the nation's defences are likely to be | :05:48. | :05:49. | |
for the next years, even though we do not have much idea what else will | :05:50. | :05:56. | |
happen to the country in the outside world. Labour Party led by Jeremy | :05:57. | :06:03. | |
Corbyn who has always been and continues to be against Trident and | :06:04. | :06:07. | |
its renewal. The fact he cannot carry the party with him, and there | :06:08. | :06:12. | |
was a free vote on what one colleague called key strategic | :06:13. | :06:18. | |
issue. That was in the end a pragmatic decision the Shadow | :06:19. | :06:23. | |
Cabinet took. Jeremy's position is well-known, he has always been | :06:24. | :06:26. | |
opposed to the use of nuclear weapons and I respect his view, I | :06:27. | :06:30. | |
fundamentally disagree with it and more to the point, Labour Party | :06:31. | :06:35. | |
policy for a long time has been to support the maintenance of the | :06:36. | :06:38. | |
nuclear deterrent and we were elected on that commitment and the | :06:39. | :06:42. | |
majority of Labour MPs who cast a vote voted to protect the nation's | :06:43. | :06:47. | |
security and support the building of the new submarines. What does it say | :06:48. | :06:50. | |
about the state of the Labour Party? There was a free vote and the leader | :06:51. | :06:56. | |
is against the policy the party is for, it is chaos. It is not | :06:57. | :07:01. | |
sustainable. I will be the first to accept that. We need new leadership | :07:02. | :07:06. | |
and we will have a leadership contest because we cannot carry on | :07:07. | :07:11. | |
with the situation in which the leader of the party and also the | :07:12. | :07:14. | |
leader of the Parliamentary party cannot command the confidence of a | :07:15. | :07:18. | |
majority of his members of Parliament. Jeremy, he has a mandate | :07:19. | :07:23. | |
I am reminded, but it includes to lead the party in parliament which | :07:24. | :07:36. | |
he is pay not able to do any more and that is why at this late stage, | :07:37. | :07:39. | |
the right thing would be for him to step down. We will have a contest | :07:40. | :07:42. | |
and hopefully we will come back at the end of September with a new | :07:43. | :07:44. | |
leader. What was the point of a policy review, Labour Party policy | :07:45. | :07:47. | |
on Trident. It was agreed at the manifesto it would be in favour of | :07:48. | :07:50. | |
renewal, when no one will change their mind on such a key issue? | :07:51. | :07:57. | |
Jeremy Corbyn voting against the renewal. The policy review has not | :07:58. | :08:02. | |
been completed, it has been delayed. It has been delayed and I don't know | :08:03. | :08:05. | |
what is in it because it has not been published. The long-standing | :08:06. | :08:12. | |
policy of the Labour Party since we abandoned unilateralism in the 80s | :08:13. | :08:16. | |
has been to support the nuclear deterrent and it is supported by the | :08:17. | :08:22. | |
major unions, because their members helped to build the submarines and | :08:23. | :08:26. | |
it is important we maintain that capacity to protect ourselves. Where | :08:27. | :08:30. | |
we agree, and I think Ken Clarke would agree, we want a world with no | :08:31. | :08:34. | |
nuclear weapons but the debate is how you get there and Britain giving | :08:35. | :08:41. | |
its deterrent up with not persuade other nuclear states in the world to | :08:42. | :08:45. | |
do so. There are new threats. Nobody knows what they will be in the years | :08:46. | :08:50. | |
ahead and I would not feel safe in a world where everyone had given up | :08:51. | :08:53. | |
nuclear weapons apart from North Korea. Jeremy Corbyn has support, in | :08:54. | :08:59. | |
his view, against renewing Trident from a large number of Labour | :09:00. | :09:04. | |
supporters and one reason is cited is the costs, which is fast. 31 | :09:05. | :09:10. | |
billion is the government figure that does not include according to | :09:11. | :09:15. | |
Caroline Lucas for the Green Party, the costs of maintaining submarines, | :09:16. | :09:19. | |
something like ?200 billion. It is not something that can be just | :09:20. | :09:24. | |
batted away. You have to face up to it is a considerable cost. Jeremy | :09:25. | :09:28. | |
Peace against nuclear weapons being held by this country in principle. | :09:29. | :09:32. | |
He came into Parliament during the brief time the Labour Party was | :09:33. | :09:38. | |
unilateralists. Every government from Clement Attlee on Buzz has | :09:39. | :09:41. | |
favoured the policy we voted for yesterday. -- on the policy. It is a | :09:42. | :09:47. | |
dangerous world and not getting safer. By the time we get the new | :09:48. | :09:54. | |
submarines, nobody knows how far nuclear weapons may have | :09:55. | :09:58. | |
proliferated over the next 30 years. It is a large sum of money and the | :09:59. | :10:03. | |
overwhelming majority of people in the House of Commons and I think the | :10:04. | :10:07. | |
public accept it is a cost we have to undertake in order to maintain | :10:08. | :10:12. | |
security. What about the commitment to multilateral disarmament? Your | :10:13. | :10:16. | |
colleagues said on the face of this legislation that was not there and | :10:17. | :10:20. | |
without that there would be no attempt at trying to work towards | :10:21. | :10:25. | |
multilateral disarmament? Is that still important? It is important and | :10:26. | :10:30. | |
we have seen the benefit of the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty and | :10:31. | :10:33. | |
how it was used by the world to get Iran to give up nuclear ambition. | :10:34. | :10:39. | |
That agreement is important. During the last Labour government we | :10:40. | :10:42. | |
reduced the number of warheads, a contribution be made. You would need | :10:43. | :10:46. | |
local powers to do that. In particular it is those who are not | :10:47. | :10:52. | |
signatories that the problem and I highlight North Korea because I do | :10:53. | :10:58. | |
not think they are to negotiation. The costs, those who raised costs | :10:59. | :11:04. | |
are opposed to a nuclear deterrent in principle. If you go back to | :11:05. | :11:09. | |
Clement Attlee's speeches in the 1940s, he said, I know the defence | :11:10. | :11:13. | |
of the nation is a cost and it is an expense but it is one we should bear | :11:14. | :11:18. | |
because it is important, given the experience particularly the country | :11:19. | :11:21. | |
had just come out of, that we make sure we are defended. We know it's | :11:22. | :11:28. | |
destructive potential. It is to protect Britain from being the | :11:29. | :11:32. | |
subject of an attack. That is the reason we have it and it protects us | :11:33. | :11:35. | |
every day with those submarines patrolling around the world. Let's | :11:36. | :11:40. | |
talk more about Jeremy Corbyn's leadership. The BBC understands he | :11:41. | :11:45. | |
is likely to face a single challenger. The two current | :11:46. | :11:50. | |
challengers, Angela Eagle and Owen Smith have apparently reached a | :11:51. | :11:51. | |
common understanding However, a new poll in today's Times | :11:52. | :11:52. | |
shows that support for Mr Corbyn Our political correspondent | :11:53. | :11:59. | |
Iain Watson is outside Labour headquarters, where the party's | :12:00. | :12:02. | |
National Executive Committee is meeting to discuss Labour's | :12:03. | :12:04. | |
leadership election rules. Have please finally been decided? | :12:05. | :12:18. | |
Yes I think they have. The NEC meeting is taking place in this | :12:19. | :12:21. | |
building and some are rushing in. It has just got under way. A week is a | :12:22. | :12:29. | |
long time in politics. Last week, Jeremy Corbyn was trying to fight | :12:30. | :12:33. | |
for the right to be automatically on the ballot and as soon as he won the | :12:34. | :12:38. | |
fight he came out here to talk to the media and celebrate and to go to | :12:39. | :12:44. | |
a supporters' rally but inside two crucial decisions were made, first | :12:45. | :12:48. | |
to increase the fee registered supporters would have to pay from ?3 | :12:49. | :12:56. | |
up to ?25. Many of them voted for Jeremy Corbyn last year, 100,000 of | :12:57. | :13:00. | |
them, and ?25 would make it more difficult to do so and this year | :13:01. | :13:04. | |
existing members would have to be party members for over six months to | :13:05. | :13:08. | |
get a vote and Jeremy Corbyn was not pleased about that, seeing it as | :13:09. | :13:14. | |
anti-democratic. Having spoken to NEC members, a senior member said | :13:15. | :13:21. | |
this matter is settled. They said constitutionally they cannot reopen | :13:22. | :13:25. | |
this for another three months, after the contest would take place and so | :13:26. | :13:29. | |
it looks like Jeremy Corbyn will not overturn the crucial decisions by | :13:30. | :13:34. | |
the NEC. As we speak there is a High Court challenge by a Labour funding | :13:35. | :13:41. | |
person who wants to take Jeremy Corbyn off the ballot. The first | :13:42. | :13:45. | |
stage of the legal challenges held today and it will be held in for one | :13:46. | :13:50. | |
week from now. It is still not clear if Jeremy Corbyn has to go through | :13:51. | :13:56. | |
the additional hoop of seeking MPs' support to get on the ballot, that | :13:57. | :14:00. | |
will be down to the courts rather than the NEC. The wrangling | :14:01. | :14:04. | |
continues. I did not realise that would go through the courts and | :14:05. | :14:08. | |
could still threaten Jeremy Corbyn being on the ballot paper. If you | :14:09. | :14:13. | |
look at the Labour Party membership and supporters, it looks like his | :14:14. | :14:16. | |
support is growing according to the latest poll. That is right. A poll | :14:17. | :14:23. | |
in the Times newspaper will come a shock reading for potential | :14:24. | :14:30. | |
challengers. They are trying to decide among themselves who should | :14:31. | :14:34. | |
be the sole challenger. To sort this out either today or at the latest by | :14:35. | :14:39. | |
tomorrow, depending on who seems to garner most support among MPs but | :14:40. | :14:45. | |
whoever wins according to this poll will be behind Jeremy Corbyn. A | :14:46. | :14:51. | |
YouGov poll suggests 54% of supporters would give Jeremy Corbyn | :14:52. | :14:55. | |
as first preference. Even if there were three candidates, Jeremy Corbyn | :14:56. | :15:00. | |
would be put in top position by a majority of existing Labour Party | :15:01. | :15:04. | |
members. There is a suggestion he is either 15, 20 points ahead of his | :15:05. | :15:09. | |
nearest rival, depending on who the rival happens to be. Whoever it is, | :15:10. | :15:15. | |
Owen Smith, Angela Eagle, they will have work cut out to convince Labour | :15:16. | :15:20. | |
Party members. That they should be chucking out Jeremy Corbyn when the | :15:21. | :15:23. | |
leadership result is announced in September. | :15:24. | :15:29. | |
Iain Watson, thank you very much. Hilary Benn, are you shocked by that | :15:30. | :15:35. | |
poll that puts Jeremy Corbyn more popular with Labour supporters? I | :15:36. | :15:40. | |
think it's more popular than a poll that was taken three or four weeks | :15:41. | :15:46. | |
ago. As I read it last night, it was something like 45% said they would | :15:47. | :15:49. | |
definitely vote for him and then there were those who said they would | :15:50. | :15:56. | |
probably. He could win again. It is possible. Labour Party members need | :15:57. | :16:01. | |
to wake up the position we're in. Jeremy Corbyn has brought ideas and | :16:02. | :16:05. | |
up debate... Do you really believe that? I think a lot of people voted | :16:06. | :16:10. | |
for him because they wanted to shake things up a bit. That is what | :16:11. | :16:15. | |
members have said to me. But I am eating party members who voted for | :16:16. | :16:19. | |
him last time, who are now saying that was my motivation but it isn't | :16:20. | :16:27. | |
really working -- I am meeting party members. There is going to be a very | :16:28. | :16:31. | |
lively campaign and I hope the membership recognises we do need a | :16:32. | :16:38. | |
new leader. Why Angela Eagle and not Owen Smith? Angela showed | :16:39. | :16:43. | |
extraordinary courage in being the first person to say she will | :16:44. | :16:47. | |
challenge Jeremy. Owen Smith has great qualities, too. There is a | :16:48. | :16:52. | |
strong view in the Parliamentary Labour Party that we would like to | :16:53. | :16:57. | |
see a single candidate challenging Germany. -- challenging Jeremy. We | :16:58. | :17:04. | |
don't yet know how the nominations will pan out... But the person who | :17:05. | :17:09. | |
garners the most support should be the one that goes forward, whether | :17:10. | :17:14. | |
that's Owen Smith or Angela Eagle? I think that the cause of there being | :17:15. | :17:20. | |
only one candidate but I won't pre-empt the decision. I'm backing | :17:21. | :17:26. | |
Angela. You've resigned from the Shadow Cabinet. I was sacked, Jo. | :17:27. | :17:32. | |
You must act, saying Jeremy Corbyn wasn't a credible leader. -- you | :17:33. | :17:39. | |
were sacked. What makes you think Owen Smith or Angela Eagle are going | :17:40. | :17:43. | |
to be able to unite what is now a completely fractured party? I think | :17:44. | :17:47. | |
they have the capacity to do so. On the basis of what? On the basis we | :17:48. | :17:54. | |
can't carry on. There is no evidence to show you can unite two sides of | :17:55. | :17:58. | |
the Labour Party that fundamentally disagree with each other. We've been | :17:59. | :18:02. | |
through difficult times like this before. I'm old enough to remember | :18:03. | :18:07. | |
the late 70s and early 80s. It is a difficult time, it some pleasant, we | :18:08. | :18:12. | |
are having party meetings suspended because of worries about | :18:13. | :18:15. | |
intimidation and that's not a healthy state for any political | :18:16. | :18:19. | |
party to be in. I'm sure even Ken would concede, we need a strong and | :18:20. | :18:24. | |
effective opposition to the government because that's important | :18:25. | :18:28. | |
for our democracy. I think that if we get a new leader, whether it is | :18:29. | :18:35. | |
Angela or Owen, if they are able to beat Jeremy, I think we will begin | :18:36. | :18:39. | |
the process of healing the party because I know they will reach out | :18:40. | :18:44. | |
to others. I'm afraid Jeremy hasn't reached out and that's part of the | :18:45. | :18:48. | |
reason the PLP has lost confidence in him. He says he would like to | :18:49. | :18:53. | |
bridge the gulf. It does sound at the moment anybody but Jeremy | :18:54. | :18:57. | |
Corbyn, it doesn't really matter to people like yourself what happens | :18:58. | :19:00. | |
afterwards as long as you get rid of him. It matters enormously. I want | :19:01. | :19:05. | |
us to be a credible party of government. We cannot just be a | :19:06. | :19:10. | |
party of protest. I would say to Jeremy's supporters, none of his | :19:11. | :19:13. | |
ideas are going to come to pass, none of them will be put into effect | :19:14. | :19:18. | |
because the public don't see him as a credible Prime Minister. What | :19:19. | :19:23. | |
other policies do you fundamentally disagree with and can't be part of | :19:24. | :19:28. | |
the manifesto under Angela Eagle? I had quite well-known disagreements | :19:29. | :19:31. | |
with Jeremy when it comes to foreign policy and those came to a head over | :19:32. | :19:36. | |
Syria. I'll give you an example of two policies I support, the | :19:37. | :19:41. | |
re-nationalisation of the railways. It's popular with the public. | :19:42. | :19:46. | |
Secondly, more affordable housing. Jeremy wants to lift the borrowing | :19:47. | :19:52. | |
cap put on local authorities to build more houses. The point is, | :19:53. | :19:56. | |
this isn't a dispute actually about policy. It is about Jeremy's | :19:57. | :20:03. | |
capacity to lead. You'll have seen the article Lilian Greenwood wrote | :20:04. | :20:07. | |
yesterday where she set out from her point of view, she said it was to | :20:08. | :20:11. | |
functional. That's why you've seen the vast majority of the Shadow | :20:12. | :20:16. | |
Cabinet resign and that's why you've seen 80% of Labour MPs saying we | :20:17. | :20:20. | |
don't have confidence in him. If Jeremy Corbyn wins, and there is a | :20:21. | :20:25. | |
high probability he will, what then? We'll have to deal with the | :20:26. | :20:30. | |
situation then. I hope that isn't the case... But you must have | :20:31. | :20:33. | |
thought about it, because you made the mistake, not you personally but | :20:34. | :20:38. | |
the party made that mistake of not thinking about it carefully first | :20:39. | :20:41. | |
time around. Would you serve under Jeremy Corbyn? I don't think there's | :20:42. | :20:47. | |
any likelihood he would invite me to serve. People have said honestly we | :20:48. | :20:52. | |
don't have confidence in you in that eventuality, to then say they've | :20:53. | :20:57. | |
changed their mind. So it would split the party? The party isn't | :20:58. | :21:02. | |
going to split. If Jeremy Corbyn wins who's going to serve in the | :21:03. | :21:06. | |
Shadow Cabinet? That is a problem for Jeremy to sort out. To be | :21:07. | :21:10. | |
absolutely clear, the Labour Party isn't going to split because it | :21:11. | :21:15. | |
belongs to all of us. Lots of people have devoted their life to the party | :21:16. | :21:19. | |
and it belongs to all of us, not to any one individual or any part of | :21:20. | :21:26. | |
the party. Ken Clarke, one thought on the disconnect between membership | :21:27. | :21:29. | |
and the Parliamentary party. The Tory party have experienced that and | :21:30. | :21:32. | |
under Iain Duncan Smith you could say there was that sort of | :21:33. | :21:37. | |
disconnect. How does that happen? It is obviously dangerous. | :21:38. | :21:41. | |
There are a reduced number of people who join political parties compared | :21:42. | :21:47. | |
to 30 years ago. Our membership tends to be elderly and to the | :21:48. | :21:53. | |
right. There's is young and to the left. They've got a lot more | :21:54. | :21:59. | |
members. Hours are keen on being in government. I think our members | :22:00. | :22:05. | |
would have voted for Theresa May. We had only one plausible prime | :22:06. | :22:07. | |
ministerial candidate and I think she would have won easily. They | :22:08. | :22:14. | |
aren't complaining that we shortened the process. This new young | :22:15. | :22:18. | |
membership of the Labour Party, they are radical people of protest. It is | :22:19. | :22:24. | |
a policy thing. I agree with your premise, I want to see the sensible | :22:25. | :22:27. | |
members of the Labour Party emerged with a credible government in | :22:28. | :22:35. | |
waiting. It improves the performance of the government in power once you | :22:36. | :22:37. | |
are challenged properly which we aren't being at the moment. | :22:38. | :22:42. | |
Last night on a train in Southern Germany, | :22:43. | :22:44. | |
a 17-year-old Afghan refugee was shot dead by police | :22:45. | :22:47. | |
after he attacked fellow passengers with an axe and knife. | :22:48. | :22:50. | |
A hand-painted flag of the self-titled Islamic State has | :22:51. | :22:52. | |
since been found in the teenager's room and the IS-linked Amaq news | :22:53. | :22:55. | |
A hand-painted flag of the self-titled Islamic State has | :22:56. | :23:02. | |
since been found in the teenager's room and the IS-linked Amaq news | :23:03. | :23:05. | |
agency has claimed the teenager was an IS "fighter". | :23:06. | :23:07. | |
Four people from Hong Kong were injured in the attack - | :23:08. | :23:10. | |
Our correspondent in Berlin, Damien McGuiNness, has | :23:11. | :23:12. | |
the latest on this story and the reaction in Germany. | :23:13. | :23:15. | |
What's been the reaction in Germany politically and in the court of | :23:16. | :23:19. | |
public opinion? I think what we can safely say is that this attack is | :23:20. | :23:23. | |
going to have a major impact on German society. That's because as | :23:24. | :23:28. | |
you know, last year Germany Tech in a large number of refugees and | :23:29. | :23:33. | |
migrants. That decision was quite controversial. Lots of people agreed | :23:34. | :23:39. | |
with it and saw it as a good humanitarian gesture. Lots of people | :23:40. | :23:43. | |
disagreed with it and said it wanted destabilise Germany. -- said that it | :23:44. | :23:50. | |
would destabilise Germany. This attack was carried out by a young | :23:51. | :23:54. | |
asylum seeker who came in as part of the wave of refugees and migrants | :23:55. | :24:00. | |
coming here. It's really going to reignite that debate over whether | :24:01. | :24:05. | |
Perlin did the right thing by welcoming in so many refugees and | :24:06. | :24:09. | |
migrants. On the other hand it's also going to put more pressure on | :24:10. | :24:14. | |
Chancellor Angela Merkel because she is facing re-election in a general | :24:15. | :24:21. | |
election next year. We also have regional elections here in Berlin in | :24:22. | :24:25. | |
September. It's going to really have a political impact on the debate, | :24:26. | :24:30. | |
particularly on the one hand to do with the refugee crisis and the | :24:31. | :24:35. | |
government's response, and on the other hand the government's response | :24:36. | :24:40. | |
to security and anti-terrorism measures. It'll increase the | :24:41. | :24:43. | |
nervousness here in Germany that a large attack may at some point | :24:44. | :24:49. | |
happen. It's seen as an individual taking violent action, only 17 years | :24:50. | :24:55. | |
old. But the self-styled IS said they recruited him as a fighter, but | :24:56. | :24:59. | |
it wasn't organised in the way we would perhaps presume if they had | :25:00. | :25:04. | |
had a carefully orchestrated incident like this. That's right, | :25:05. | :25:11. | |
Jo. That's the question right now. The first question was whether this | :25:12. | :25:16. | |
was an Islamist extremist attack, it appears it probably was. There was | :25:17. | :25:21. | |
the IS flagged in his accommodation and the fact that officials have | :25:22. | :25:27. | |
found texts saying that Muslims should take up arms against the | :25:28. | :25:32. | |
West. The second question is whether this was in fact organised by IS or | :25:33. | :25:39. | |
whether he was a lone attacker. Officials in Germany are saying | :25:40. | :25:43. | |
there's no connection they can see between this young man and so-called | :25:44. | :25:50. | |
Islamic State. So far, all the evidence they say is pointing to the | :25:51. | :25:54. | |
fact this was probably a lone attacker. This doesn't make Germans | :25:55. | :25:58. | |
feel more secure because it doesn't mean this was a lone wolf attacking. | :25:59. | :26:03. | |
It's almost harder to prevent something like that because it is | :26:04. | :26:08. | |
such a random attack that you can't foresee. Officials are saying they | :26:09. | :26:12. | |
see no connections with other Islamist groups and they also see no | :26:13. | :26:17. | |
connection official league with so-called Islamic State. It could be | :26:18. | :26:24. | |
that this young man was inspired by IS rather than radicalised directly | :26:25. | :26:26. | |
by the group. This must be the worry that | :26:27. | :26:35. | |
following the tragic events in Nice that individuals saying they are | :26:36. | :26:39. | |
acting on behalf of so-called Islamic State are just deciding to | :26:40. | :26:43. | |
do these things on their own. I agree. It will be a problem for | :26:44. | :26:48. | |
years to come, it's one of the major problems all Western societies are | :26:49. | :26:53. | |
going to face. If IS loses its territory in Syria and Iraq as a | :26:54. | :26:59. | |
result of military campaigns, they will move into this kind of | :27:00. | :27:05. | |
terrorism and there is undoubtedly a crazy mood amongst a fringe of young | :27:06. | :27:10. | |
Muslims that attracts them to this one-off individual massacre of | :27:11. | :27:17. | |
innocent people. It's no good thinking there's a simple way of | :27:18. | :27:21. | |
getting rid of it. You have to improve your intelligence and | :27:22. | :27:24. | |
security, you also have to decide how to mobilise the bulk of the | :27:25. | :27:28. | |
Muslim population, to try to stop this awful influence. The pressure | :27:29. | :27:34. | |
on Angela Merkel will be building, ever since she made that decision | :27:35. | :27:38. | |
that meant that large numbers of migrants and refugees from Syria and | :27:39. | :27:44. | |
other parts of the Middle East came into Europe in Germany, she is at | :27:45. | :27:48. | |
risk politically, isn't she? She might be but that is because | :27:49. | :27:52. | |
extremists and populist groups like to turn into the answer is stop | :27:53. | :28:01. | |
these immigrants coming. They like to pray on these fears. The idea | :28:02. | :28:05. | |
that the solution for Germany is to somehow stop foreigners coming, make | :28:06. | :28:15. | |
sure the people fleeing anarchy and violence in the Middle East and | :28:16. | :28:19. | |
Africa are turned back at our borders, is perverse. The fact is as | :28:20. | :28:25. | |
we know, we've had random items of terrorism, we'll have more I'm | :28:26. | :28:28. | |
afraid although our intelligence services do quite well. We've had | :28:29. | :28:34. | |
British citizens carrying out attacks in London and killing | :28:35. | :28:40. | |
people. Exploiting immigration is just a hardline right-wing | :28:41. | :28:44. | |
exploitation of the understandable worries we have about terrorism in | :28:45. | :28:45. | |
the next few years. The campaign to keep Britain | :28:46. | :28:48. | |
in the EU hoped that their warnings of dire economic consequences | :28:49. | :28:51. | |
if we left would be enough to persuade voters | :28:52. | :28:53. | |
to maintain the status quo. But in the end Project Fear - | :28:54. | :28:55. | |
as it was dubbed by the Leave campaign - | :28:56. | :28:58. | |
failed to convince. So what impact has the decision | :28:59. | :29:00. | |
to leave the EU had We can now say the decision taken | :29:01. | :29:03. | |
in 1975 by this country to join the Common market has been reversed | :29:04. | :29:12. | |
by this referendum to leave the EU. After weeks of campaigning | :29:13. | :29:17. | |
and predictions of disaster from either side, whatever we chose, | :29:18. | :29:23. | |
the result was, to many, unexpected, and came with a truckload | :29:24. | :29:26. | |
of concerns and questions. Having been told by the then | :29:27. | :29:31. | |
Chancellor George Osborne, among others, that leaving the EU | :29:32. | :29:34. | |
would spell financial turmoil, he is no longer in charge of that | :29:35. | :29:40. | |
economy nor in the government that But in one regard he was right | :29:41. | :29:43. | |
and Leave supporters Brexit was always the more | :29:44. | :29:46. | |
uncertain choice, because it And if there's one thing | :29:47. | :29:50. | |
markets hate and react Across the world's markets | :29:51. | :29:55. | |
that morning, sterling fell against the dollar, | :29:56. | :30:01. | |
UK's credit rating was downgraded, the FTSE 100 and FTSE 250 fell, | :30:02. | :30:07. | |
as did shares in banks. And the IMF cut economic growth | :30:08. | :30:10. | |
forecasts for the eurozone. Did it mean that Project Fear | :30:11. | :30:12. | |
was becoming Project Fact? Loathe as I am to set up a strawman | :30:13. | :30:18. | |
just to knock it down again, here in the Treasury of course | :30:19. | :30:22. | |
they're watching the UK economy to see whether the vote to leave has | :30:23. | :30:25. | |
had an effect on it. But when you're trying to decide | :30:26. | :30:29. | |
that, it really rather depends If you are a Remainer you will look | :30:30. | :30:32. | |
for evidence they were right, it is all a disaster | :30:33. | :30:37. | |
and it is all going to go wrong. If you are a Leaver, | :30:38. | :30:40. | |
you are going to be looking for evidence that backs up the fact | :30:41. | :30:43. | |
that it was all fine after all. And the truth is it's | :30:44. | :30:46. | |
really too early to tell. Frustratingly, that provides no | :30:47. | :30:48. | |
reassurance for either But as economists who supported | :30:49. | :30:51. | |
Brexit gathered in London last week, they were perhaps | :30:52. | :30:57. | |
unsurprisingly upbeat. Often overlooked is | :30:58. | :31:06. | |
the government borrowing rate Admittedly borrowing rates of many | :31:07. | :31:09. | |
countries are at low levels but it suggests that international | :31:10. | :31:13. | |
investors have not It highlights the fact that the UK | :31:14. | :31:15. | |
Government, if it wanted to, with a new Prime Minister, | :31:16. | :31:19. | |
could borrow incredibly cheaply So when you look at the markets, | :31:20. | :31:21. | |
look at what is happening, as opposed to listening to what | :31:22. | :31:25. | |
people are saying in some respects. Nonetheless, in the world financial | :31:26. | :31:28. | |
powerhouse that is London, there are still signs our referendum | :31:29. | :31:31. | |
decision is having some negative repercussions, especially | :31:32. | :31:33. | |
within the currency markets. Because why would you invest | :31:34. | :31:36. | |
in a country that has yet to work out what its new position | :31:37. | :31:41. | |
is in the normal world environment? But we are not in a normal | :31:42. | :31:45. | |
world environment. We are in a world with almost 0 | :31:46. | :31:52. | |
to negative interest rates. We are in a world where growth | :31:53. | :31:55. | |
is at best sluggish. The US could be led by, | :31:56. | :31:58. | |
the first time really in 100 years, by somebody who doesn't believe | :31:59. | :32:01. | |
in international trade and global China, the next biggest economy | :32:02. | :32:09. | |
in the world, is slowing rapidly. Nobody quite knows how much | :32:10. | :32:13. | |
because the official GDP data In a normal world, if this happens, | :32:14. | :32:16. | |
then yes, people would stop Softbank's ?24 billion purchase | :32:17. | :32:24. | |
of ARM will be seized But in the months to come expect | :32:25. | :32:29. | |
supporters of Leave and Remain to cherry pick economic news that | :32:30. | :32:36. | |
chips away at the Joining me now is the former Justice | :32:37. | :32:38. | |
minister and leading Leave Welcome back. Let's look at the | :32:39. | :33:00. | |
data. After the vote to leave, the UK growth forecast for 2016 was cut | :33:01. | :33:10. | |
to 1.9%. Down to door .4% for 2017 and consumer confidence fell at its | :33:11. | :33:13. | |
fastest pace in 22 years with the high street suffering in the wake of | :33:14. | :33:21. | |
the vote to leave, according to a research Society. The warnings of a | :33:22. | :33:25. | |
bomb on to the economy and recession have been proved wrong on the | :33:26. | :33:29. | |
forecasts you just gave me because the suggestion there might be a cut | :33:30. | :33:33. | |
of growth is different from going into recession. Employment is at | :33:34. | :33:38. | |
record levels borrowing levels are good for us and the latest | :33:39. | :33:43. | |
manufacturing index data has been positive and the FTSE 100 and 250 | :33:44. | :33:48. | |
are at higher levels than when David Cameron came back with the EU deal | :33:49. | :33:53. | |
in February. Nobody has said there are not short-term risks but my | :33:54. | :33:55. | |
argument would be when we go into the Brexit negotiation and as | :33:56. | :34:01. | |
parameters become clearer and we are clear we will not end up with | :34:02. | :34:04. | |
massive trade barriers, we should focus on managing risk but there are | :34:05. | :34:11. | |
huge opportunities. Let's not talk of it as a damage limitation | :34:12. | :34:15. | |
exercise. Manage the risk and sees those opportunities. It is too early | :34:16. | :34:23. | |
to tell, isn't it? I agree with your commentator. It is silly to look at | :34:24. | :34:27. | |
economic policy and movement in terms of fighting a game that | :34:28. | :34:33. | |
ridiculous referendum campaign when arguments on both sides were frankly | :34:34. | :34:36. | |
painful and rather silly. What you cannot do, my view is you cannot | :34:37. | :34:44. | |
reduce trade links with the market of 500 million people without making | :34:45. | :34:51. | |
yourself poorer. I think there is uncertainty that is causing not only | :34:52. | :34:54. | |
financial markets to go mad. Which they do anyway. We have no | :34:55. | :35:00. | |
investment taking place and falling confidence. The longer the | :35:01. | :35:03. | |
uncertainty goes on more likely we go into recession between now and | :35:04. | :35:10. | |
Christmas. The sooner we end the uncertainty and I agree with | :35:11. | :35:16. | |
Dominik, make sure we do not put new barriers to trade and investment -- | :35:17. | :35:25. | |
Dominic Raab. We are going to talk about... All the other things they | :35:26. | :35:28. | |
are arguing about, I would leave that. I would get on with restoring | :35:29. | :35:32. | |
confidence and get people to invest here again by establishing the kind | :35:33. | :35:38. | |
of access the Norwegians have got. There is a recession by Christmas? | :35:39. | :35:45. | |
We were told we would be on an economic cliff edge the day after. I | :35:46. | :35:52. | |
did not say that. He said there would be a recession the day after? | :35:53. | :35:57. | |
I said economic cliff edge. We have not seen that. Look at the Footsie. | :35:58. | :36:02. | |
Let's be clear about the FTSE and the value of sterling. There were | :36:03. | :36:06. | |
falls and it has rallied a little against the dollar and euro. The | :36:07. | :36:12. | |
FTSE 100 later recovered but the FTSE 250 is still below the | :36:13. | :36:17. | |
pre-referendum level. But not below the level when David Cameron came | :36:18. | :36:21. | |
back in February. Businesses from Aston Martin to Amazon have since | :36:22. | :36:25. | |
the result announced new investment in the UK in terms of Aston Martin's | :36:26. | :36:32. | |
Welsh facility and jobs in the UK. I would say there is uncertainty but | :36:33. | :36:36. | |
it is not the doom and gloom predicted. Just before that, on | :36:37. | :36:42. | |
uncertainty, it would be about whether businesses hold on cash, | :36:43. | :36:47. | |
they don't invest. Will that happen because we have to wait at least two | :36:48. | :36:51. | |
years before we know what will come? Two things have happened. One of the | :36:52. | :36:58. | |
causes of uncertainty was about the vacuuming government after the | :36:59. | :37:00. | |
referendum when David Cameron resigned and that has been resolved | :37:01. | :37:05. | |
mercifully swiftly which is one reason why sterling and the FTSE | :37:06. | :37:08. | |
rebounded. And the second thing that has to happen, which we expect by | :37:09. | :37:14. | |
Christmas, is the parameters of the negotiation will be clearer. I hope | :37:15. | :37:22. | |
that that point... There -- it is clear there will not be huge trade | :37:23. | :37:27. | |
barriers. Wait and see the light of the land. It has nothing to do with | :37:28. | :37:31. | |
ludicrous scaremongering preceding the referendum. The ludicrous | :37:32. | :37:35. | |
scaremongering, the idea of a punishment budget, we know what | :37:36. | :37:41. | |
happened to George George Osborne. Balancing the budget at the end of | :37:42. | :37:46. | |
the Parliament has been abandoned. Growth put before deficit reduction, | :37:47. | :37:50. | |
these are positive things? Some things that were said were as daft | :37:51. | :37:56. | |
as the billions of Turks that would flood in if we voted to remain. I | :37:57. | :38:02. | |
stick to the IMF, Bank of England. Mark Carney has been running the | :38:03. | :38:12. | |
shop recently very well. We reported about the institutions. There is a | :38:13. | :38:17. | |
view that many Leave voters felt they were not benefiting from the | :38:18. | :38:21. | |
so-called recovery. We had enough experts. For example, IMF, Bank of | :38:22. | :38:27. | |
England, Mark Carney, the IMF come out with dire predictions. The | :38:28. | :38:33. | |
former chief economist of the IMF, and the committee of the bank of | :38:34. | :38:37. | |
England said it will not be quite as bad as that. What we argued was some | :38:38. | :38:42. | |
political appointees are coming out with rather partisan assessments | :38:43. | :38:45. | |
which their experts do not agree with. Do not attack Mark Carney as a | :38:46. | :38:53. | |
political appointee. Do not interpret the events of the first | :38:54. | :38:57. | |
month as a means of allowing you to make attacks on these institutions | :38:58. | :39:01. | |
made in the first part of the campaign. You got the Euro wrong. | :39:02. | :39:12. | |
Silly populist politics is not the way to deal with a serious economic | :39:13. | :39:19. | |
problem. I scrutinised Mark Carney. Did you accuse him of not being | :39:20. | :39:26. | |
independent? The point I made was when these people came out we | :39:27. | :39:31. | |
looked, for example, Mark Carney, at the Select Committee gave a balanced | :39:32. | :39:35. | |
set of evidence and when he went on the Andrew Marr Show I felt it was a | :39:36. | :39:39. | |
stronger political intervention. You shake your head but compare the | :39:40. | :39:43. | |
evidence he gave to the Treasury Committee. On batch... The serious | :39:44. | :39:50. | |
problem is you will not get major investment in this country. It will | :39:51. | :39:57. | |
not all stop. You will not get the major investment and restore | :39:58. | :40:06. | |
confidence. Rolls-Royce. Gentleman. Until you establish exactly what | :40:07. | :40:08. | |
trade and economic relationships will be. We will discuss that. If | :40:09. | :40:14. | |
you sacrifice some of the axis we have now to the European single | :40:15. | :40:17. | |
market, you will make this country poorer. We are going to talk about | :40:18. | :40:28. | |
it. I want to ask Dominic Raab briefly. You were not on the -- you | :40:29. | :40:36. | |
on the winning side, disappointed you lost your job? More gratified to | :40:37. | :40:40. | |
see Britain take the right decision and I want to see at work and I will | :40:41. | :40:44. | |
support this government and also like Ken Clarke enjoyed the freedom | :40:45. | :40:49. | |
of the backbenchers. Be backed Michael Gove. He is no longer around | :40:50. | :40:55. | |
the cabinet. How big a loss is he to government? One of the great social | :40:56. | :41:00. | |
reformers of our generation so I am sorry to see him go. I will not | :41:01. | :41:04. | |
quibble with the new Prime Minister who has the right to pick a team. I | :41:05. | :41:10. | |
did not bad-mouth anyone through the campaign nor the leadership contest | :41:11. | :41:13. | |
and I will not do it now. You expected probably to be there | :41:14. | :41:17. | |
because people would say you were a leading light in the Leave campaign | :41:18. | :41:22. | |
that was victorious. Very kind, but lots of people have expectations. | :41:23. | :41:24. | |
Politics is a game of ups and downs. One of the big issues as we begin | :41:25. | :41:27. | |
the process of leaving the EU will be what it means for trade | :41:28. | :41:31. | |
with the rest of the world. Those who wanted us to remain | :41:32. | :41:34. | |
in the EU argued the size of the single market is an advantage | :41:35. | :41:37. | |
when striking trade agreements with other countries, | :41:38. | :41:39. | |
while Leave campaigners say the EU is slow at agreeing deals and that | :41:40. | :41:41. | |
Britain loses out from not being able to negotiate | :41:42. | :41:44. | |
our own deals. As well as operating as a single | :41:45. | :41:46. | |
market for trade within the EU, the European Union currently has | :41:47. | :41:52. | |
in place 22 bilateral and five The UK is prevented from signing | :41:53. | :41:56. | |
individual trade deals with other member states or with non-EU | :41:57. | :42:04. | |
countries before it has Brexit Minister David Davis | :42:05. | :42:07. | |
and Trade Minister Liam Fox say they are working towards a leaving | :42:08. | :42:11. | |
date of first January 2019 and that they are already involved | :42:12. | :42:17. | |
in informal trade talks with the aim of having agreements ready | :42:18. | :42:21. | |
to sign on that date. At the weekend Liam Fox said | :42:22. | :42:28. | |
he is "scoping out" deals with a dozen countries and had | :42:29. | :42:30. | |
opened "very fruitful" He cites Australian Prime Minister | :42:31. | :42:33. | |
Malcolm Turnbull's offer to strike a deal with the UK "as soon | :42:34. | :42:37. | |
as possible" as evidence that post-Brexit Britain can be | :42:38. | :42:40. | |
"a beacon for open trade." But others warn that as Britain | :42:41. | :42:43. | |
will be unable to conclude trade deals until it has officially left | :42:44. | :42:47. | |
the EU it may initially have to operate under | :42:48. | :42:50. | |
World Trade Organisation Rules and faces uncertainty over future | :42:51. | :42:52. | |
access to the single market. EU Trade Commissioner Cecilia | :42:53. | :42:56. | |
Malmstrom said earlier this month that the UK cannot begin negotiating | :42:57. | :43:01. | |
a new trade relationship with the EU Dominic Raab is still with us | :43:02. | :43:04. | |
and we've also been joined by Sir Lockwood Smith, New Zealand's | :43:05. | :43:11. | |
High Commissioner in London. Welcome. We were starting to talk | :43:12. | :43:23. | |
about it, we cannot sign deals until we have officially left, that has to | :43:24. | :43:27. | |
be the most worrying thing for British business, the uncertainty | :43:28. | :43:31. | |
you were conceding could set in. I think it is the opposite. We can do | :43:32. | :43:36. | |
the preliminary negotiation and have them ready to go when we leave the | :43:37. | :43:40. | |
EU. Can they be ready to go on day one? You can have informal | :43:41. | :43:46. | |
discussions. People will not invest here to sell cars in Australia or | :43:47. | :43:51. | |
New Zealand. You cannot activate deals because you cannot remain in | :43:52. | :43:58. | |
the single European market and then just let everybody else import into | :43:59. | :44:02. | |
your bit of it. We have to put frontiers in place to get government | :44:03. | :44:07. | |
access. Trade is a complicated thing and those people who have talked | :44:08. | :44:10. | |
about trade negotiations have never had anything to do with them. I have | :44:11. | :44:15. | |
probably heard more rubbish on trade negotiations talked in the | :44:16. | :44:20. | |
referendum than any other subject. Deal with New Zealand, fine but for | :44:21. | :44:24. | |
the time being we are in the single market and we have to work out the | :44:25. | :44:28. | |
basis of what access we will retain to that market. Does Ken Clarke have | :44:29. | :44:32. | |
a point, that should be the priority? We will talk about free | :44:33. | :44:38. | |
trade deals with Australia and Canada but given over 40% of exports | :44:39. | :44:43. | |
go to the EU, is that the priority, securing access to that single | :44:44. | :44:48. | |
market? The referendum was won on taking back control of the economy, | :44:49. | :44:52. | |
laws and borders and the idea we would have free movement and trade, | :44:53. | :44:57. | |
with single market access will not happen. What you said about 40% is | :44:58. | :45:05. | |
right. The gradual share of UK exports of shifted from the | :45:06. | :45:10. | |
continent. Why is that important? Strike more free trade deals, boost | :45:11. | :45:14. | |
jobs at home and cut prices in the shops. That was not my question. | :45:15. | :45:21. | |
What should be the priority? We are not going to trade free movement for | :45:22. | :45:26. | |
access to the single market but there is massive mutual | :45:27. | :45:29. | |
self-interest in making sure we keep that trade going because we have a | :45:30. | :45:37. | |
trade deficit. Why on earth would the French and Germans go into | :45:38. | :45:42. | |
elections in 2017 on a manifesto promising to hike trade barriers. | :45:43. | :45:57. | |
I was the first Trade Minister in the world to sign China up to the | :45:58. | :46:03. | |
World Trade Organisation. I initiated Australia New Zealand... | :46:04. | :46:10. | |
So I know a bit about it. It is complex. One has to be honest. In | :46:11. | :46:17. | |
fact how the UK and negotiates this parting of the ways is hugely | :46:18. | :46:21. | |
important for the world. Because the world needs both the UK and the EU | :46:22. | :46:25. | |
doing well. New Zealand does well when you people do well. With that | :46:26. | :46:30. | |
affect the sort of trade deal you'd be prepared to sign with the UK? | :46:31. | :46:37. | |
We'll work in formerly obviously with the UK. But in fact a couple of | :46:38. | :46:41. | |
things have to happen. First this negotiation with the EU, how the | :46:42. | :46:48. | |
future trade relationship will be. Also at the WTO, the UK has to | :46:49. | :46:54. | |
establish its schedule at the WTO. That may involve replacing the word | :46:55. | :46:59. | |
EU with the UK. All the other members have the chance to have a | :47:00. | :47:04. | |
say in that. These things have to be progressed carefully, wisely and New | :47:05. | :47:07. | |
Zealand is prepared to help whenever we can. It sounds tentative. You're | :47:08. | :47:13. | |
saying you want to see what's going to happen first. We want to help. We | :47:14. | :47:18. | |
think it is not a matter of waiting to see what will happen, we want to | :47:19. | :47:22. | |
help the UK sort out the steps and how to get a really good outcome. | :47:23. | :47:28. | |
It's in our interests. In that sense, there's also talk that being | :47:29. | :47:32. | |
too eager to sign up to trade deals with the likes of Zealand and | :47:33. | :47:37. | |
Australia in formerly, until actually the UK leads the EU, that | :47:38. | :47:43. | |
you will give away too much. There will be too much eagerness to have | :47:44. | :47:45. | |
these deals ready to go that mistakes will be made. I don't think | :47:46. | :47:51. | |
that's the dynamic. I'll see you step negotiating basement protection | :47:52. | :47:54. | |
agreements so I know what it's like to negotiate some of these deals. We | :47:55. | :47:59. | |
should go to countries like New Zealand and Australia. They sell | :48:00. | :48:02. | |
their exports of wine to the UK. We should be going to them, we want to | :48:03. | :48:07. | |
drink more of your wine. That will put the pressure on the French and | :48:08. | :48:13. | |
will be the biggest dampening on the likelihood of trade barriers. We | :48:14. | :48:17. | |
should be doing the same with the Koreans and the Japanese around | :48:18. | :48:21. | |
cars. We should at the same time be going to the business there's an | :48:22. | :48:24. | |
trade fairs across continental Europe and saying, we want to keep | :48:25. | :48:30. | |
buying your goods, we are going to have a more competitive arrangement | :48:31. | :48:33. | |
going forward. Don't let the politicians ruin it. In 2017 there | :48:34. | :48:39. | |
are German presidential elections, are they really going to run on a | :48:40. | :48:42. | |
manifesto of trade barriers that will crush French and German jobs? | :48:43. | :48:47. | |
They make it more difficult to make concessions. The German and French | :48:48. | :48:52. | |
will want to minimise the damage from this but I hope Liam Fox is | :48:53. | :48:55. | |
listening to this is about how we are going to go on. Meanwhile what I | :48:56. | :49:00. | |
really dislike is the idea that of course is the condition of the trade | :49:01. | :49:04. | |
deals is it all depends on our reaching some decision about which | :49:05. | :49:07. | |
people we are going to stop coming to work here, which people will stop | :49:08. | :49:12. | |
coming to be students. We are going to say to the Europeans, we don't | :49:13. | :49:18. | |
want your construction workers, your academics, the students coming to | :49:19. | :49:21. | |
our universities, we are going to put our controls on them. And of | :49:22. | :49:28. | |
course trade is going to be dependent on our agreement first of | :49:29. | :49:32. | |
all. This nonsense has got to be abandoned. But people will have to | :49:33. | :49:38. | |
respond to the vote. We've run out of time but do you think you will | :49:39. | :49:41. | |
sign up a deal the day after Brexit happens? We certainly want to be | :49:42. | :49:47. | |
involved in the informal work but it's got to be done sensibly and | :49:48. | :49:51. | |
wisely and the EU has got to be part of this. It's got to be done in a | :49:52. | :49:59. | |
balanced way with smart minds. On the other side of the political | :50:00. | :50:03. | |
pond, this was supposed to be the week where Donald Trump was anointed | :50:04. | :50:08. | |
as Republican candidate for the presidential election. The | :50:09. | :50:11. | |
Republican Convention Toft Way rather chaotic start. Andrew is in | :50:12. | :50:20. | |
New York and has been across events. Tell us what happened. America went | :50:21. | :50:25. | |
to bed in King Mrs Trump had done a pretty good job. It was a little | :50:26. | :50:32. | |
over scripted but she pulled it off and was getting good reviews in the | :50:33. | :50:39. | |
post-speech analysis. America has woken up to a huge row that a huge | :50:40. | :50:45. | |
chunk of the speech was plagiarised from Michelle Obama's speech to the | :50:46. | :50:49. | |
Democratic convention. They overlapped, the use of words is | :50:50. | :50:52. | |
almost exactly the same. Normally what would happen is that the speech | :50:53. | :50:57. | |
writer would be given a loaded revolver and a bottle of whiskey and | :50:58. | :51:03. | |
simply held off a tall building. The problem is that Mrs Trump has told | :51:04. | :51:09. | |
an American network that she scripted the speech almost entirely | :51:10. | :51:12. | |
herself and she only had to rehearse it once. It's an ongoing row but | :51:13. | :51:17. | |
this being the Trump campaign, in the end probably nothing will come | :51:18. | :51:22. | |
of it. Does anything seem to stick? Does any of it matter? Nothing so | :51:23. | :51:27. | |
far. Other than Mrs Trump last night, it was a collection of beer | :51:28. | :51:34. | |
list celebrities. There was a guy from Happy Days, there was an | :51:35. | :51:38. | |
Italian male model, there will walk on parts | :51:39. | :51:48. | |
from The Apprentice. The attempt to try and stop him from being the | :51:49. | :51:54. | |
Republican nomination petered out yesterday afternoon. It now builds | :51:55. | :51:58. | |
up to his coronation on Thursday night. What we still don't know is | :51:59. | :52:02. | |
how he will reach out beyond his base which was there last night, to | :52:03. | :52:06. | |
the broad electorate that he needs to win. That will be the test he's | :52:07. | :52:12. | |
got to pass on Thursday. What did you make of Rudy Giuliani? He gave a | :52:13. | :52:23. | |
fairly rousing speech himself. It was barnstorming. It was probably | :52:24. | :52:26. | |
the best speech of the night if you like that kind of thing. He was way | :52:27. | :52:31. | |
ahead of the other speakers and it hammered home the theme of this | :52:32. | :52:35. | |
convention that America is unsafe, it will take Donald Trump to make it | :52:36. | :52:41. | |
safe, that Obama has been weak and Hillary Clinton will be even weaker. | :52:42. | :52:45. | |
That was the theme pounded out again and again and again. Not say from | :52:46. | :52:49. | |
its enemies abroad, not save they save from its enemies within. And | :52:50. | :52:56. | |
taking place after yet more police shootings, this resonates with the | :52:57. | :53:00. | |
Republican base. Does it resonate beyond that? That, we still don't | :53:01. | :53:05. | |
know. Is there any evidence that he's reaching out beyond the core? | :53:06. | :53:11. | |
There is. The polls are narrowing in his favour. Mrs Clinton is still in | :53:12. | :53:15. | |
the lead but there's quite a lot of evidence to suggest that the more | :53:16. | :53:19. | |
you talk about law and order issues, the more you talk about toughness in | :53:20. | :53:24. | |
America, the more that connects with a particular blue-collar vote. This | :53:25. | :53:28. | |
Republican party is not the Republican party of old, of the East | :53:29. | :53:33. | |
Coast, of the establishment, of the money, of Wall Street. This is a | :53:34. | :53:41. | |
reinvented workers party. It is increasingly a blue-collar party on | :53:42. | :53:46. | |
the right. The question is, and it's a white blue-collar party. I'm told | :53:47. | :53:50. | |
there may be fewer black delegates at this convention than there were | :53:51. | :53:57. | |
at the 1964 convention when Goldwater was nominated post-civil | :53:58. | :54:02. | |
rights. Mr Trump intends on getting a massive turnout of disillusioned | :54:03. | :54:06. | |
white voters, and there are plenty of those around. Thank you very much | :54:07. | :54:11. | |
forgetting up so early to talk to us. Your cheque is in the post. Yet | :54:12. | :54:16. | |
another 10p. LAUGHTER Now, Ken here is famous | :54:17. | :54:21. | |
for speaking is mind, Indeed he tends to be even more | :54:22. | :54:23. | |
outspoken when he thinks the microphones are off but are, | :54:24. | :54:27. | |
in fact, on. In a recent unguarded moment he | :54:28. | :54:34. | |
described Theresa May as a bloody difficult woman although it doesn't | :54:35. | :54:37. | |
seem to have dented her career prospects. | :54:38. | :54:39. | |
So to honour this Great British tradition of accidental | :54:40. | :54:42. | |
plain-speaking, here's our top five microphone gaffes. | :54:43. | :55:07. | |
Well all these Eastern Europeans that are coming in... | :55:08. | :55:09. | |
About a million British people have gone into Europe. | :55:10. | :55:15. | |
The irony is that what they need to do is get Syria to get Hezbollah | :55:16. | :55:56. | |
His derogatory comments about the three, who are known | :55:57. | :56:02. | |
to have reservations about Britain's links with Europe, | :56:03. | :56:04. | |
is just the kind of political blunder Mr Major could ill afford, | :56:05. | :56:08. | |
The Prime Minister said he'd got threebastards in the cabinet. | :56:09. | :56:16. | |
Mr Reagan was at the ranch preparing for the weekly radio broadcast. | :56:17. | :56:23. | |
Testing the microphone, he made a light-hearted remark that | :56:24. | :56:25. | |
For the networks recorded it and last night broadcasted it. | :56:26. | :56:33. | |
My fellow Americans, I'm pleased to tell you today that | :56:34. | :56:35. | |
I've signed legislation that will outlaw Russia for ever. | :56:36. | :56:38. | |
Those famous gaffes. We're joined by Parliamentary sketch writer for the | :56:39. | :56:58. | |
Guardian. Do they ruin careers best amok not in the case of Ken, for | :56:59. | :57:04. | |
certain. One of the secret sister have first name recognition. I think | :57:05. | :57:12. | |
if you are a Boris, your gaffes tend to be forgiven -- one of the secrets | :57:13. | :57:18. | |
is to have first name recognition. There was a sense that you were | :57:19. | :57:21. | |
saying something that everybody thought was true. You said what you | :57:22. | :57:30. | |
really meant. Absolutely. I went on to compare her with Margaret | :57:31. | :57:33. | |
Thatcher who was also a bloody difficult woman. I think I added to | :57:34. | :57:39. | |
the entertainment of the nation, that was the impression I got. Every | :57:40. | :57:44. | |
colleague I met came towards me laughing because they'd just been | :57:45. | :57:50. | |
watching it. Don't you think it's time politicians learn to be careful | :57:51. | :57:56. | |
around radio microphones? LAUGHTER In the age of spin doctors who | :57:57. | :58:03. | |
carefully micromanage lines, and politicians only saying things | :58:04. | :58:07. | |
they've been told to say by the whips, it is often refreshing to get | :58:08. | :58:11. | |
something of the real person. With your line on Michael Gove, I think | :58:12. | :58:15. | |
you were probably conservative. I think he could fight a war with four | :58:16. | :58:19. | |
or five countries at the same time not just three! Anything you'd like | :58:20. | :58:25. | |
to say to the nation today before we go?! I accept the stricture that | :58:26. | :58:32. | |
Malcolm Rifkind and I have been around far too long to be caught | :58:33. | :58:36. | |
sitting in a TV studio with the microphone on. We are obviously | :58:37. | :58:41. | |
losing a bit of our old professionalism really. Worse things | :58:42. | :58:45. | |
have happened. I don't think heard with those other mega disasters mind | :58:46. | :58:51. | |
was anything other than enlightening the nation of what precisely my | :58:52. | :58:57. | |
views were. Thank you for coming in. Thank you for being the guest of the | :58:58. | :58:58. | |
day. Goodbye. You're coming across as, frankly, | :58:59. | :59:01. | |
ridiculous. You've done an appalling job | :59:02. | :59:06. | |
of selling them online. Erm... | :59:07. | :59:12. | |
I mean, I'm... We're... We're... | :59:13. | :59:14. |