23/09/2016 Daily Politics

There's just 24 hours to go before the result of the Labour

Whoever wins, can they bring the party back together again?

The Foreign Secretary suggests formal Brexit negotiations

Other Conservatives warn against rushing the process.

You may have missed it, but there was a general election

yesterday in the British Isles - on the Isle of Man.

We'll bring you the result of the vote for members

And we report from a film festival that celebrates workers' rights.

All that in the next hour and with us for the duration,

Sam Coates, Deputy Political Editor at the Times, and Caroline

Wheeler, Political Editor at the Sunday Express.

Let's kick off with the question of when Theresa May will formally

start the process of leaving the EU - the so-called

We think of nothing else here, you know. It is actually not Article 50

of the Lisbon Treaty but a protocol to the Maastricht Treaty. Are you

still with me? Probably not. Last night the Foreign Secretary,

Boris Johnson, suggested it was likely the Government

would invoke Article 50 early The Government is working

towards an Article 50 letter, which, as you know, will be produced

probably in the early That is still a subject

for discussion, but you know, what is clear, I think

to our friends and partners We are not leaving Europe, though

we are leaving the EU treaties. We do want to have the closest

possible trading relationship, and it is very, very much

in their interests to achieve that. The Foreign Secretary's

statement wasn't entirely backed up by Number 10,

though sources just repeated the official line that Article 50

won't be triggered this year. Well, this morning

another senior EU figure, the President of the European

Parliament, Martin Schulz, made it clear he wanted Theresa May

to trigger Article 50 as soon What I'm saying is we had

an exchange of views about the position, the known

position, both sides know. The Government is insisting

that they need more time to prepare the negotiations

because of the complexity of the project to leave

the European Union. On the other hand, we insist

to trigger Article 50 as soon as possible,

because we believe that uncertainty is not healthy,

neither for the economy in the United Kingdom,

nor for the whole political system Mar stin skulls of the European

Parliament - Martin schuss. Our Ellie is in

Downing Street for us. Boris ju Johnson just said what is

the working assumption in Westminster, it is some stage

between the beginning of the new year and Easter, Mrs May will

trigger article 50. That's what we expect, isn't it? Yes, a will the

seems to have made of this this morning. But as you say, I think

this is kind of what we were all working on anyway. There was that

mild slapdown from number ten from Mrs May's spokesman when she pointed

out it is Mrs May's decision when Article 50 is triggered and she will

only make the decision when it is in Britain's interest. But what Boris

Johnson said is essentially what everyone has been working on. It is

worth looking back to what it means. We keep talking about Brexit being

like some kind of divorce between Britain and the EU. If Brexit is

indeed the divorce, Article 50 is the bit with the lawyers, the

deciding who gets the CD collection and who gets control of the dog. Now

we have the control, we have the control of when to trigger Article

50, but when it is triggered it will take three years, so the decree

absolute will be two years after Article 50 is triggered so. There

been people in the Conservatives, Dominic Grieve saying - don't rush

it, we need it make sure that Britain is in a state of

preparedness before you get to the two-year trigger. There are others

who say - get on with it. Don't forget, Britain remains a member of

the EU all the time it is in the negotiations, during Article 50, at

which time it can't negotiate with any other trade deals T can't enter

into any other relationship with others outside the EU, who may want

to enter into trade agreements. We'll leave it there. There is a

vacuum in British politics at the moment, because the Government won't

give us any details of its timetable or negotiating position. There is a

danger when people say something, that is innocuous, we build it into

a huge event - Boris Johnson goes off piste, knocked down by Downing

Street. It is Much Ado About Nothing, I would suggest. It is

number ten's strategy at the moment. Ultimately, the main thrust of it

all is not to reveal our cards at all as to where we are going. Lots

can change within a very short space of time. We have seen it again with

David Davis not long ago where he suggested it would be improbably for

us to stay within the single market and that got a mild rebuke, again

from Downing Street. They do not want to say anything about Brexit or

the timetable until we get to a position that we are on the cusp of

doing it. Simply because they don't want a long-running commentary which

they think will keep the instability up in the air about what we are

doing. But David Davis got mildly knocked back for stating the

bleeding obvious. If we are not going to fall under the European

Court of Justice - which determines single market arguments - and we are

not going to have the freedom of movement that they have now, ipso

facto, we can't be full members of the single market. I mean what is...

What bit is wrong in that statement? That seems to be where we are

heading but what is fascinating and to my mind a little disturbing about

where we are right now, is that the Government is shutting down a debate

on where we go next. It is possible to have one, George Osborne gave a

speech this mornings sort of kicking it off. You have to make a choice in

the way that Brexit unfolds in the coming months. The choice has to be

- do you in the end put the interests of the economy first? Or

do you, perhaps, say that it is more important to deal with migration,

the thing that many people think they voted on? In his speech this

morning, George Osborne said he thought it was more important that

the economy doesn't contract in the coming years but it feels to me that

Theresa May has taken the decision is that the most important thing she

has to do, the thing she was thwarted from doing all the way

through the coalition years from the Treasury, is tying action to make

sure you can reduce net migration numbers. And I think we have to have

a healthy debate about the consequences of that and the options

available to us and we are not doing that because no Government minister,

those people with the biggest mega phones are able to talk about it. So

I think we are in a weird position where Downing Street stamps

everitime somebody says something. In this case, it is an innocuous

thing, the Trigger of the Article 50. It is early days and there is a

Tory Party conference coming up. They'll have to talk about it there.

Martin Schulz says he wants Britain out, sometime by 2019. That's not

controversial, that's almost exactly the Government's timetable. If Mrs

May triggers Article 50 say by March of next year, which is when I think

it'll be roughly then, then a two-year process which takes you to,

oh, March 2019 when it all comes to a halt. So, they are on the same

side on that timetable? They are. There has been some speculation that

there could be some delay because of the election wris taking place in

mainland Europe but ultimately, as we said, I think what he said, as

you said yourself, is fairly innocuous and probably pretty

accurate but it isp wanting to maintain some kind of control on

this. They have a whole day of talking about Brexit on the first

day of the Conservative Party Conference. She is speaking twice.

What will happen on the second day? Well you have all the Brexiteers

speaking on the Sunday. They will have to say something. They will, no

knows, maybe she will surprise us. And you can see the full

interview with Martin Schulz on the BBC News Channel

at 5.00pm this afternoon. We are getting breaking news that

Jim O'Neilll has resigned from his UK Treasury post. You probably

haven't heard of him. He used to be the former - he was the Chief

Economist at Goldman Sachs investment bank. I think he was the

one that invented the acronym, BRICS, Brazil, Africa, Russia,

India, China. He got a job in the Government, I

think it is an unpaid job, because he is rolling in it anyway. He was

made an elected member of the Upper House and involved in a number of

things, including the northern powerhouse. He has resigned, any

idea? His job was two things - to nurture the northern powerhouse and

ensure that relations with China were smooth T looks like Theresa May

isn't terribly keen on either of them. Although she just about has

used the phrase northern powerhouse and brought herself to say... She

used it four times, there was an article in the Manchester Evening

News. But other ministers have talked about the Midlands Powerhouse

and some aides in depreet thought to be going around saying - I think

George Osborne's northern powerhouse looks like amounting to two or three

towns and we think that feeling, that it wasn't important s one of

the reasons he has gone. If you hadn't heard of him before, now he

has resigned, you probably will hear of him.

The question for today is who did former Shadow Chancellor, Ed Balls,

Was it: a) His Strictly dance partner, Katya?

At the end of the show Caroline and Sam will give us the correct

The result of the Labour leadership ballot is due at around

But while we've got just under 24 hours to wait,

all sides of the party appear to have already accepted that

Jeremy Corbyn will remain Labour's front man.

said this week that whoever wins the leadership on Saturday,

the party needs to "put the band back together."

So, if Jeremy Corbyn is re-elected, can the Labour Leader get his MPs

all singing from the same song sheet?

He needs to fill more than 60 unfilled posts

Owen Smith has already said he is going solo

and will not serve in a Corbyn Shadow Cabinet.

Chris Bryant, one of Mr Smith's supporters have urged party

colleagues to play their part in reuniting the party with real mag

nap imity. has already said she

would return if asked. More MPs may serve if Shadow Cabinet

elections are reintroduced - Chief Whip, Rosie Winterton,

is co-ordinating further talks between Mr Watson and Mr Corbyn

after Labour's National Executive could not reach an agreement

on the matter earlier this week. 29% of Labour member supporting Owen

Smith have told one Sawyer vie that they would leave the party if Mr

Corbyn is re-elected. But whatever happens, Labour has a uphill tax

task to get to number 1 in the polls.

Speaking on Question Time last night, Liz Kendall -

who stood for the leadership this time last year -

said she won't be joining Jeremy Corbyn's Shadow Cabinet.

I disagree with Jeremy on many issues, particularly around

defence and our membership of things like Nato.

I think it is very important that Labour remains

You know, whoever is elected, I don't think that I would put

myself forward to serve in the Shadow Cabinet.

We have some great people who can take the fight to the Tories,

but we also need, I think, to do some serious long-term thinking

about the future of our party and what we have to offer

to the country, and that is what I will be focussing on over

We're joined now from Middlesbrough by Andy McDonald, a member

of Jeremy Corbyn's Shadow Cabinet, and in Liverpool by Richard Angell

from Progress, Labour's centrist pressure group.

Let me come to you, Andy MacDonald. Is there not a danger that new a

position, now, that the more support Mr Corbyn gets in the Labour Party,

and nobody can be in any doubt of the support he has got from Labour

members - but the more support he gets there, the less support he

seems to get among Labour voters in the country?

By the time this is done and dusted we will have a united Labour Party

presenting our proposals to the electorate. I think they will prove

to be very popular, what we are not helped by is when the party is

divided and at each other. We have seen a poll out this morning, that

more than 50% of people who voted Labour in 2015 and who backed Brexit

in June, now say they won't vote for Labour any more. It's a big number,

several million. Those are big number, but I think

over the weeks and months ahead we will see that begin to change,

because there is no doubt about it, there is a real appetite within the

Parliamentary Labour Party for people to come together. We may not

get everybody Tetley signed up and supported, but a great number of

members of Parliament are wanting to serve and take the fight to where it

should be, which is with this Government. I think those numbers

will change over the period ahead. They could change after the

election, we will have to watch and see. I don't quite detect the

appetite nor for everyone to come together. There are a number of

leading the Labour MPs who are saying they will not serve in Mr

Corbyn's Shadow Cabinet even if he is reelected by a big majority, as

the boundary changes get under way, we are going to be looking to see

how many deselection attempts there are, that is not the kind of

environment to heal division, is it? No, but you have to is that right

that process of healing the ethe vision, it is vitally important we

do that. I take your point, that there are a number of people who

said they won't in any circumstances, but I think that may

change, once people see we have that unanimity of purpose, we saw that

being led by Angela Raynor opposite the Grammar School debate. We were

as one on that issue, and I think when Labour comes together like

that, it can be a very forceful voice in British poll tuck, so I

think people will be attracted to that and slowly we will see our

fortunes rise in the polls and any of the elections that come along, I

am confident that is what will happen. Richard, if Mr Corbyn is

comfortably re-elected, perhaps on a bigger margin than he won last year,

what should centrist Labour MPs do? Well, all centrist members of the

Labour Party should stay, should be forthright about what they believe

our party should do going forward. We are united about why the Tories

are wrong, what we have to do is have the debate about why we are not

just an alternative, we could replace them. That is what I fear

that isn't there as part of the Corbyn project. How many debates do

you need? Need? You have had two leadership contests in the space of

a year? The debate doesn't end with a leadership question, that is just

about who leads us as the front, but Jeremy Corbyn has got to outline his

very serious plans about how he will aim to get more votes than his Tory

point, how he will not just have the best lines in Parliament to oppose

them, which we are yet to see coming forward but a real plan, for not

just policy agenda but alearntive government that can replace the Tory

Government. Isn't the danger the more you talk to yourselves and go

on about endless debate and discussion the more the country is

switching off? Agree, I want to be on the doorstep. You called for more

debate. Because we are in the wrong position. You talked about how many

voters we are losing, 2.5 million have abandoned the Labour Party. I

used to have to go and argue about why we needed to win votes off the

Tory, we are having to win back people who recently voted Labour.

That is how big the change is, if Jeremy Corbyn doesn't show he wants

to bring people in and take them onboard, end the abuse, lots of

party members who campaign for Andy McDonald will wake way and say this

party isn't for them. Was it not a huge mistake for like minded

centrist Labour people like yourself, to challenge Jeremy Corbyn

and have another leadership contest only a year after the first one,

that you just, you have lost another summer talking to yourself, it was a

huge mistake to challenge Mr Corbyn wasn't it. That was way above my pay

grade. You were in favour of it even if you are paid tuppence.. It is a

fair point none came with sufficient ideas, organisation or the ability

to convince people. That is something we have to continue to

work on going forward. You can't take any other view if you lose your

ideas weren't that good enough currently when the leader of the

Labour Party's priority is to raise money for the stop to war coalition

not the Labour Party it's a real challenge and you have to focus them

back on the core business, which is helping councils getting elected.

Focussing on staying in the EU, which we failed at. I think that

ship left the harbour on June 23rd. So my point is it did because we

were insufficiently up for the challenge. If you look... No, no,

you have had a good say, I am going to bring Andy back in, in here. On

the European issue, your constituency voted 66% to leave. Do

you therefore go along with that, or do you try to find some ways to have

another referendum, or do you respect the votes of your

constituency? Well of course you represent them. They were angry at

the stay to us Quo and they made that very clear to when I was

knocking on door, they were furious about the lot they had been dealt,

and they saw it with SSI at Redcar when the Government walked away and

abandoned the steel industry. They were hitting out. I could understand

that quite rightly. People in my constituency felt they had not had a

good deal from the Government. I had anti-David Cameron sentiments on the

doorstep, that was translated in a vote to leave the ow. We have to

listen to people. So... As understand by me. What does it tell

us about the mood in the Labour Party, that the, that the party

staff of Labour, from their headquarters, have had to be given

advice on dealing with violent and aggressive behaviour at the Labour

Conference, one Labour MP, a Jewish Labour MP is worried she is taking a

body Bard to the Conference, what does it tell us the about the mood

inside your party? Well, think it tells us that this is totally

unacceptable. The abuse that is going on. I don't think that the

vast majority of people within the Labour, we are now 600,000 people,

they are good despeedget, not offence Si and rude. Why has

headquarters felt it necessary to issue this advise, I have been

covering conferences since 1973. I can nerve remember advice being

given to deal with a violent and aggressive behaviour at the

Conference. I think the mood has changed. I look to social media. It

seems to be the modern equivalent of road rage, people seem to be free to

say what they like on Twitter. I have had the most horrific things

said to me. It is not acceptable. What is going on when people feel

free to use if most foul language, people should have respect and

manners, and that applies within the Labour and outside. That is a modern

expression of how we go about our business, and I for one don want any

part of it. Well, perhaps the advice won't be required in the end in

Liverpool. We will see. Andy McDonald. Richard Angell. Both of

you, thank you. You begin to put the party back together again but there

is now going to be a struggle for the soul of the NEC, there will be

more talk about deselection as the boundary changes gather, and I sense

that quite a lot of the centrist Labour MPs won't join Mr Corbyn's

Shadow Cabinet again, so it is possible that the divisions and the

sense of Civil War will continue, is it not? I think that is inevitable.

When you talk to former members of the shadow cob net they are at a

loss at the moment. There has been talk about this co-existence which

we have seen to a certain extent, in the run, silence behind Jeremy

Corbyn as he goes forward to do PMQ, it seems they may continue. That is

worrying because ultimately they are the opposite and we need to have a

united opposition, everyone when we have a Conservative Government with

a relatively small minority, they need to challenge the decisions that

are come up with. We seem to be in a position where the glass roots are

in search of a new political party and the political party is in search

of a new grass roots. How does that work itself out? It doesn't, does

it. There are, there is a binary choice for many people who oppose

Jeremy Corbyn back in June, early July and called for him to go. You

stay on the outside or crawl cockroach like back in to the

centre, the story of the next few days will be that. It won't be the

people who would be out staying out, but those people who decide to

swallow their pride and get involved with Jeremy Corbyn and sit round the

table with him. We could see a few people. There is a desperate attempt

by team Corbyn to phone people up and say you can have whatever job

you want if you come back round the table. It only needs five or six to

allow Jeremy cover to say look, they have come back to me, forget about

those who won't, but there have been some who signed back up. It will be

an continuing story when Parliament comes back.

We have to get through the Labour and Tory conferences first.

And you'll be able to watch the results of the Labour leadership

contest live on BBC2 from 11.00am tomorrow in a special programme

hosted by Victoria Derbyshire at the party conference

When was the last general election in the British Isles?

No, it wasn't the 2015 election which gave David Cameron

It was, in fact, yesterday, on the Isle of Man.

Last night a record five women were elected to the Manx parliament,

as a new generation swept into the House of Keys,

Half of the parliament's 24 members are newcomers -

We can speak to Radio Manx presenter, John Moss, who has been

following developments over night there.

Thank you for joining us, briefly tell us how the political system

works, the House of Keys equivalent to the House of Commons? First of

all, yes, it is the equivalent, there are 24 members, and boundary

reorganisation this time has meant that there are 1 individual areas or

constituencies, and each areas has two MHKs and that was the process

that happened last night. There is also, I understand, there is an

upper chamber as well, which scrutinises legislation, but that is

appointed by the House of Keys? It is. It is called is legislative

council. It is a tourist -- three chamber system. You have the House

of Keys, the House of Keys decide who is goings to it is on the

legislative council. It has nine member, once a month they.

Co-together at the tin wold. This is the Parliament that goes back to

Norse times and they come together, and they are the one that have the

final said, say. So we have 24 members in the Keys and and nine in

the upper chamber. They come together once a month. Why has there

been a change of personnel this time? We get the feeling a lot of

new blood has arrived in the House of Keys, what has prompted that?

Yes, there is a bit of political blood on the floor, a few members

decided to give up their political careers and retire, including the

chief minister Alan Bell, he has been chief minister for the last

five year, they have been very tough years we have a VAT agreement with

the UK and after renegotiation about a third of the income was taken off

the Isle of Man, so great deal of slimming of departments had to go

on. The search is not just for new members but someone to lead them in

a new government. Now, as I understand it, foreign and defence

policy is a matter for Westminster. But on most or nearly all domestic

matters that is a matter for the house of key what have been the

issues in this campaign, what have been people arguing about and

debating? It is very much domestic issues on the doorstep. The Isle of

Man is facing a dam closes sword as other countries are in its Pensions

Bill, the legacy from previous years, we have an enormous bill

outstanding, unless we do something about the pensions and there is a

lot of debate about how best to do that, the obvious answer is to get

people to retire earlier and also to give more money, but this is not a

popular decision. I guess you could put taxes up, they are very low

there. Yes, but it's a great draw for what the Isle of Man does. There

is various taxes we don't have over here which made it attractive and

which the Isle of Man has lived on since it decided to go for the

financial areas around about the 60s and that is how the island had the

good years up to about eight years ago when the renegotiation of vat

took place, and suddenly, the Isle of Man was having to struggle to

find income to pay for the good time, the things it had been able to

give the people. That is the source of discontent because a lot of

things have had to be taken away. Thank you very much. We'll leave it

there for now. Next, a row is under way

in the Scottish Parliament after the Scottish Labour leader,

Kezia Dugdale, failed to vote against a key

SNP policy yesterday, handing the SNP government

a victory on a key bit Kezia Dugdale has blamed a technical

problem with the electronic voting system in Holyrood but officials

say they couldn't find Our correspondent, Andrew Black,

is across the story Andrew, tell us what happened? Well,

this was all about a debate yesterday in the Scottish

Parliament, on the issue of council tax, which, in itself is a

controversial long-running issue in Scotland. The way that the Scottish

Government wants to deal with the council tax issue is by essentially

making people in the higher banding areas pay more council tax money.

Yesterday these proposals were being debated and it looked like the

Scottish Parliament was going to vote for a Conservative debating

amendment, which stated that these proposals would undermine local

democracy. What happened was, when it got to a vote there was a tie N

that situation the Presiding Officer of the Scottish Parliament is

supposed to use his casting vote to vote for what he thinks is the

status quo. So, on that occasion, the Conservative amendment fell.

Now, at this point nobody really knew what was going on and unlike at

Westminster, there is an electronic voting system at Holyrood, where

they press a button and the vote is tramsmitted instant lane once the

voting records were released, it became clear that Kezia Dugdale

looked like she hadn't voted. Now, only one of two things happened here

- either the electronic voting system didn't work properly or that

Kezia Dugdale didn't vote. Scottish parliamentary authorities say they

checked and there is nothing wrong with their electronic voting system.

Kezia Dugdale says she actually voted. So I suspect it is one of

these things we'll never really get to the bottom of. But the more

interesting thing, is really that the fallout here - now, in reality

SNP Scottish Government is going to have to change its council tax

policy. Because it is a minority government and it needs to get the

plans through with opposition support, potentially. But, I think

the other issue is that Kezia Dugdale, really and Labour in

Scotland don't have their troubles to seek at all at the moment. And

instead of it being an embarrassment for the Scottish Government, which

they thought it was going to be, it has resulted with Labour ending up

with the red faces on this occasion. Fascinating. We will leave it there.

Thank you for joining us. For those who want electronic voting in the

House of Commons, I guess that's just set you back a little bit.

If you fancy yourself as something of a political boffin -

or you'd like to become one - stay tuned.

Two leading political experts have put together a new book,

which chronicles the 50 things you need to know about ...

Ellie has been genning up on the insights and intel in Sex,

Lies and the Ballot Box, to make the following public

This is a public information broadcast from the Daily Politics on

how not to be wrong about politics. Please pay attention. The

by-election catches the political eye of Britain. When a general

election is announced, politicians keen to win votes spend weeks boring

people - I mean informing the public about why they should vote for them

I'm Donald, I'm the Liberal canned day. I hope you are going to support

me. To the average man and woman, this makes sense but it's wrong.

According to clever people, known as Political Boffin, the election

campaigns don't count. Usually it's the party ahead in the polls in

January that goes on to win. The manifesto which we published today,

the Conservative Party manifesto. I'm sure you are an awfully clever

person and you know to take election promise was a pimple of salt. Well

you might be too smart with your own good. Research

implement four the fifths of their manifesto, so they are worth where

the paper they are written on. You know the sort. Can't decide what to

choose on a menu or who do vote for. Politicians spend a lot of time

chasing their vote Getting on for a 3% swing to Labour. That means

people in every 100 switching from Conservative to Labour and getting

on for a Labour majority. Maybe they shouldn't bother. There are more

swing voters than ever but there are fewer marginal seats than there used

to be. Unless these newfangled boundary changes jungle things up

again, of course. Being British, you will be very #2rd in the weather. We

used to think that voters were like bears. They only come out in the

spring and summer. Well that might have been true but now it makes no

difference when an election is held. Plucky voters pay no heed to

inclement weather. Democracy, better than any umbrella. Final thought.

Try to imagine a caricature lefty. Are they naive, happy, claply, let's

all get along types? What about a right-winger, do you think of angry

people? Well that just shows how much you know. The boffins say the

left-wingers are more I will tolerant of different political

views and right-wing people are the happiest. Now I've corrected your

wrongly-held opinion. You can use your knowledge to impress people in

a variety of social settings. You're welcome.

Our Ellie and she has not been able to throw that voice since she did

the voiceover. She is going to sound like that for now. And Philip Cowley

has joined us. What is this business about campaigns don't matter. What

is the evidence? If you look at the last 14 general elections. Party

ahead in the polls in January went on to win the election when it was

held. The two in 12 of those 14 case, the only 12 exceptions, one is

the last one, 2015 when we know the polls were wrong all along anyway

and the other one is October 1974, you cannot go back to the reaction

in January, because there was a reaction in February. It doesn't

mean campaigns don't matter at all but it means they don't matter as

much as we think. If you want to know what determines the way

elections come out, you should look at what happens two or three years

before the election, which is when the action takes place. Hard to

argue that the campaign won't matter in the Trump-Clinton presidential

race, isn't it? Well, a, those 14 are all British. I am not making a

digs stinks from the US. But the same thing is broadly true if you

look at most US presidential elections, most of the action

doesn't take place in the months or years before the election, it takes

place two or three years' more. This season may different. Let's wait and

see. So you are basically wasting your time covering election

campaigns and your readers' time, even more importantly. Yes, what

Phil seems to have done is written political journalism out of the

script here and suggested there is something pointless about it. Look,

I think there is a very good point here. I suspect that voters - I

think the greatest way of working out where a investigator is going to

land is talk to them in January, February before an election and hear

what slogans and impressions they have of a political party. People

don't change their minds particularly quickly on politics. We

like to think they do. We cover the soap opera fwhems you about people

get an impression, a long of had term economic plan was a phrase

before the 2015 general election, which seeped into the wider public.

I think "take control" was a phrase that really made an impression in

the public bfrted EU referendum. I think those kinds of things take a

long time, so the last manufacture minute ups and downs and coach

journeys and battlebuses and flights and leaflets probably only seek to

reinforce a little bit around the margins in the final days, as fun as

it is to watch and cover them. You highlight this rather peculiar

phenomenon in Britain, that there are more swing voters than ever,

probably because of the breakdown of tribal party loyalties. But fewer

marginal seats? Swing voters is almost election on election, if you

look at the number of people who changed their votes between the

elections, going back to 1964, it is basically an joup ward line. But

those voters, however, many of them in seats that will not change hands

because the political geography of Britain initially separated north

and south and as it separated north and south, so you cre aid sfrong

holds for each party and more recently you have had the collapse

of the third party who was challenging, which has also created

stronger - so in 2015 fewer marginal seats between Labour and the

Conservatives than any election in post-war history. Do the boundary

changes coming up change or enforce that trend? In so far as we can

tell, and we don't obviously yet have the Scottish ones and we don't

yet know whether they will be imposed in the form that they have

been discussed, it makes very little difference. One of the surprising

findings which we like to think that this country is increasingly diverse

and progressive and tolerant and so on, is that a parliamentary

candidate's race affects their electoral chance. Could you spell

that out for us? By a couple of percentage points. Non-white capped

dates suffer and Muslim candidates, in particular, suffer. You can see

this, both just by looking at how they perform, but you can even just

look at it by doing analysis of people's names. Candidates with

non-European sounding names, non-British sounding names, perform

worse in local elections and in general elections the difference is

about 2 or 3 percentage points. The average sn.s doesn't flit other way.

White candidates standing in an eted nickically diverse area do not South

same. Does that surprise you? It does. But if you think of the

ethnicity of voters, actually the ethnicity of voters can impact

general election results because they are more likely to be swing

voters and less entrenched political patterns of the way they vote. I

think it is fascinating that somebody's name, for example, would

actually influence a particular seat Even where they are on the ballot

paper. It is better to be near the top of the paper than the bottom.

Some voters doesn't read all the way down. You are much better off being

called Bates than Yates, standing for election. I'm sure Mr Yates Or

AlanEd a vak. He has a good chance. Mr Corbyn puts great store in the

number of young people joining the Labour Party and attracted to his

way of doing politics. Is it sensible to put your faith in young

people? With the caveat that quite a lot of conventional wisdoms have

been overturned in the last three or four years when it comes to

electoral behaviour, I would say one of the conventional wisdoms are A,

non-voters don't tend to vote and B, young people don't tend to vote. So,

putting your electoral hopes on nonvoting young people is a

potentially very risky electoral strategy. Right. I put that as

politely and neutrally as I can. I understand. I noticed the way you

were tip-toeing, tap-dancing around the thorny subject. According to

research we found in your vote, right-wing people across Europe tend

to be happier and enjoy their sex life most. How did you find that

out? They report higher levels of satisfaction with their life. They

could just be lying and they could have lower expectations. It is the

other possibility. It is people on the far right who are happiest, not

just in Britain but across the four other European countries that are

surveyed. They are happiest more in general and with their sex life T

could be that they have lower expectations either in general or

between the sheets and that those expectations are, therefore,

fulfilled. Would that be your experience? All I could say is if

you try to get the ethical approval to do that very much at universal

you would be given short shrift, I would think. You seem to be getting

money for any other kind of research. Left-wing people less

likely to date across the political divide. I can definitely believe,

that actually. I have seen friends, particularly when I was younger at

university, say they would never data Tory and vice versa and never

do it the other way but more Labour supporters saying that. Saw the

Never Kissed A Tory stick. There is no right-wing equivalent. People on

the left are more accepting. Let me see the book. It is called More Sex

Lies And the Ballot Box. Have you done that already? I did and I came

on this programme to talk about it. When you do this job your brain is a

sponge. No, not a sponge because it would retain, what is it a colander?

Anyway, there it is, More Sex Lies and the Ballot Box? Who is the book

for? For the nerds and I noticed the introduction, people who like swig

op terse and exit polls but for people who think elections are

boring and we want to show them they are not. Well you have come to the

right place now I have given it a plug, do I get to keep it? You do.

Corruption in action, live on air. Now, a festival of Labour

culture is taking No, I don't mean the Labour

Conference in Liverpool. I'm talking about the London

Labour Film Festival. Movie-goers in London can

munch their popcorn in front of one of 18 films the organisers have

chosen for their cinematic Mark Lobel has been to see

what's on the big screen. Last night the Labour Film Festival

opened just around the corner from Jeremy Corbyn's house in north

London. No champagne socialists here,

I was assured it was Prosecco. So, what are the main ingredients

for a festival of film One of the reasons why this cinema

is quite important to us is because they pay

the London living wage here. I have been looking out for this,

because as a trade unionist I'm interested in films

about working people and that's I think it's great to

have a festival that showcases films, which actually

challenge the status quo. Challenge the justice,

give a platform to, you know, issues which otherwise are often

ignored or marginalised. It is a fantastic and I think quite

inspiring film festival. With so much online now,

having a cinema where people can come and hopefully have respectful

debates amongst themselves, face-to-face, it is quite a nice -

it sounds old-fashioned doesn't But I think it is nice

to have that forum, really. We are a global network

of film festivals. We meet every year and share

ideas for film festivals. There is a film festival

in New York, San Francisco and also Kicking the festival off,

a BAFTA award winning true story hones in on an emergency

call centre operator. Now, listen, listen,

I need you to stay where you are. They are on their way

and they are trying No, I need you to stay downstairs

or you will put yourself We had a death in Camden last year,

in the last 12 months, a really unfortunate incident

where our target times to get to any So if you pick up the phone,

there is a fire in your house, you should expect a fire engine

to be there within six minutes. The fire engine took 13 minutes

and that's because the nearest fire Are you here for the opera

or the Labour film festival? I wanted to see the

Michael Moore film. Better than live opera,

tonight's main event, Michael Moore's European travelogue

in search of social Student debt isn't just a problem

in the US but over here, too, as award-winning director

Ken Loach's new UK film I was literally struggling

so much at university. I didn't know what was going on,

like, if I was going to continue. But, sadly, none of these movie

aficianados I spoke to had seen the Labour Leader's

leading role online. Ah, well, there is always next

year's festival, I suppose. And we've been joined

by Anna Burton, director of the London Labour Film Festival,

and by Peter Whittle, Anna, what would you regard or what

are generally regarded as powerful British left-wing films? First off,

the London Labour film festival is about work, workers and the struggle

of working people. That is the theme. A lot of films I don't always

divide them into left and right film, a lot of films can't be

divided like that, the films we put are on about telling peep's stories.

There are powerful British left-wing films aren't there? There are of

course. Give me a couple 678 He me think some of the films we have put

on, Made in Dagenham That was a reasonable commercial successful It

was and we put that on at the festival before. There is Kes. The

Full Monty Absolutely. And the one with the young boy who became the

ballet dancer, Billy. Billy Elliot 6789 that was a left-wing film. It

was. Again a commercial success. Absolutely. Pride which came out two

years ago now, we screened that last year again, a great film about the

LGBT community coming together to support the mining community.

Fabulous film. Do, where does Britain stand, though, in this, in

its ability to do these films with a political purpose, a left-wing

agenda, are we really up there with the French or the Italians, or even

the American independence sector? Don't they do more and maybe better?

Or the Germans too? I think we have a very vibrant film industry in this

country and I think there is a lot of, I think a lot of people that

make films and produce films tend to be a lot of creatives tend to, if

you like, have left-wing sensibilities, overall, and... I

know overall, but this is a specialist one because there are a

lot more films being made of the type you are showing that don't get

much of a commercial release, or if they do they are not a huge success

even though they maybe worthwhile films. Peter, you founded the new

culture forum which is channelling the cultural orthodoxies in the

widest sense, so are you challenging also the kind of the films we are

talking about? Not at all. Fist of all I think the festivals are great.

All festivals are good. Good luck, it is hard to fete one going, in

fact if there were to be a right-wing or more a more diverse

sort of Film Festival that wasn't left, took on many different

subjects, then I would be very happy but it doesn't happen on the whole.

It is difficult. Why? Think particularly two things, First of

all it is about funding strangely enough. You know, most of the

foundations you might go to, most of the public foundations and companies

are politically correct in what they want to support. It doesn't matter

what they are doing but their window shop is of porting broadly soft left

thing, there is that, and working in television for years as well, is

there is a kind of group think in the general cultural world, in

Britain, which is broadly soft left. It is assumed you are... What are

you trying to do about that? Basically with the new culture forum

it is saying, look, you know, you don't have to be just pro climate

change, pro multiculturalism, pro mass migration or whatever, to work

in the arts or to work in the academic field. You don't, do you?

It is an extraordinary pressure, on you, to basically go along with a

certain agenda, otherwise you will search high and low for a film or a

play or a novel or piece of art that for example challenges

multiculturalism or challenges for example you know, the impact of mass

migration, I would have thought they were dramatic issues. Is this sort

of entertainment, a programme makeling, is it a left-wing

monopoly? I don't think that is the case, I think culture in film and

art are inclusive, really, I don't think, I don't think that there is

kind of a left-wing monopoly on it by any mean, we are telling stories

that are relevant... What films, supposing you got the funding to

launch an equivalent to what Anna is doing, what would be the films to be

shown at say Ukip Film Festival. It wouldn't necessarily be a Ukip one.

A general Conservative one, I think probably for example, first of all

there should be a hell of a lot more documentaries we saw Michael Moore

there, he has probably become the most famous documentary maker in the

world. There should be more documentaries looking at things like

radical Islam. What I asked what would you show at the moment, what

films would fit in to your cultural world view? British films? British

films. That is very difficult to find that. Really? Yes. All the

films you talked about earlier, they are all on the left. I suppose the

nearest would be was The Iron lady. In the sense a lot of people said

this is right-wing revisionism but it was pretty politically neutral.

You know what you going to get when you go to a British film. Really?

Are you going to this festival. Do you think he is right? The only

example I I can think of there was a film called Brexit the movie and

certainly other things around the referendum they were trying to get a

music festival off ground and there was a sense of fear for certain

mainstream businesses and people to get involved with those events

because it seems that would in some way politicise them. In. So senses

you don't get that from films and cultural events on the left. It

seems more socially acceptable in some senses. We won't be at the Film

Festival because we will be up in Liverpool, living the dream. I mean

I think there is an example of Ukip culture, it is the programme, TV

programme Nigel Farage says is his favourite, Dad's Army. That an

example of the kind of thing the former head of Ukip would identify

himself with. Is that not what you are looking towards? It is more

serious than that. If you want to get new audiences in you need

diversity of issues and that is one of the things the arts tend not to

do. They tend to to follow public opinion, they ecreep out and might

put something out which is a bit critical of something like Islam but

on the whole it is cowardly. It is James Bond a left or right-wing

franchise. Ian Fleming was right-wing, it has gone different...

Bridget Jones, left or right, Monty Python? I don't know you can fit

So, who's had a slice of the action this week,

and who's been pushed out of the tent?

Here's Ellie again, with all the political bun

fights of the week, in just 60 seconds.

Tim Farron started conference wanting to be

leader settled for heaping praise on - Tony Blair,

with his keynote speech appealing to Labour voters.

Tuesday saw Theresa May give her first major address

tht a post-Brexit Britain wouldn't shy away from its global

Voting for the next Labour leader closed on Wednesday.

We will find out who made the cut - Owen Smith or Jeremy Corbyn -

tomorrow, ahead of the party conference in Liverpool.

Boris Johnson gave diplomacy a go this week when he said

there was strong evidence that Russia bombed a UN

He was standing right outside a UN Security Council meeting.

And Jeremy Corbyn waded in on the national mourning

to follow The Great British Bake Off's move to Channel 4,

by calling for the programme to be nationalised.

There's just time before we go to find out the answer to our quiz.

The question was who did former Shadow Chancellor Ed Balls say

So, what is the correct answer? Well, I don't think the correct

answer but the real answer is he has embarrass all of them. That is

harsh! It is. Yvette Cooper would agree with that. It was his family,

he said. He would embarrassment He succeeded. Sam maybe right. That is

it for today. Thanks to Sam, Caroline

and all my guests. I'll be back on Sunday at 11am

with a special edition of the Sunday Politics,

live from the Labour And the Daily Politics

will be back on Monday, with more conference coverage

from 11.00am, including live coverage of the Shadow

Chancellor's speech - If there is nothing new,

then the Court of Appeal aren't going to change

their decision.