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Welcome to a sunny Birmingham where in half an hour | :00:07. | :00:09. | |
the new Chancellor - Philip Hammond - will make his | :00:10. | :00:11. | |
Why is he ditching George Osborne's budget deficit targets? | :00:12. | :00:50. | |
Philip Hammond will tell the Conference that he's easing off | :00:51. | :01:00. | |
the pace of deficit reduction and plans to borrow more to invest. | :01:01. | :01:03. | |
But what's changed in the economy to justify this change | :01:04. | :01:06. | |
The Chancellor will pledge ?3 billion of public money | :01:07. | :01:11. | |
But is this all new money, how many new homes and will it be | :01:12. | :01:17. | |
anywhere near enough to solve the housing crisis? | :01:18. | :01:22. | |
"A country that works for everyone" that's the motto emblazoned all over | :01:23. | :01:26. | |
the Conference centre here - but how can Theresa May's | :01:27. | :01:29. | |
ambitious rhetoric on social justice be achieved? | :01:30. | :01:34. | |
And they've been a little reluctant to come to me - | :01:35. | :01:38. | |
so we sent our Adam out to hunt down the three Brexiteers. | :01:39. | :01:43. | |
. John Fox, have you been told to keep a low profile? -- doctor Fox. | :01:44. | :01:51. | |
It looks like a low profile to me! All that coming up | :01:52. | :01:55. | |
in the next two hours in this Daily Politics | :01:56. | :01:58. | |
Conference Special. Philip Hammond, the new Chancellor, | :01:59. | :02:08. | |
will get to his feet in half an hour. We will bring you that live | :02:09. | :02:12. | |
and uninterrupted. Here with me now though - | :02:13. | :02:17. | |
two of the best political minds here to chew over the news | :02:18. | :02:20. | |
from Conference so far. They have put large amounts of money | :02:21. | :02:27. | |
in my bank account for me to say that! LAUGHTER | :02:28. | :02:28. | |
The Guardian's Political Editor Anushka Asthana and the Times | :02:29. | :02:30. | |
Yesterday we had the Brexit announcement yesterday, the Prime | :02:31. | :02:38. | |
Minister is hoping that will go away today, but where are we now? | :02:39. | :02:43. | |
Regarding Brexit. Theresa May is a very popular woman with the right of | :02:44. | :02:49. | |
her party and if you read it today with the Daily Mail, this lady's not | :02:50. | :02:54. | |
for turning. They did not take very long to mentioning her steel capped | :02:55. | :02:59. | |
shoes, I notice. What did she actually say? She said immigration | :03:00. | :03:04. | |
is going to be a priority, something we knew, she said the European court | :03:05. | :03:10. | |
of justice will be, as well, but she let herself open after that, we | :03:11. | :03:13. | |
don't really know what the Brexit deal is going to look like that we | :03:14. | :03:18. | |
will be pushing for. We do know, even though they won't say it about | :03:19. | :03:21. | |
when we add up everything that has been said, we will not fall under | :03:22. | :03:27. | |
the jurisdiction of the ECJ and we want a free trade deal and we want | :03:28. | :03:31. | |
the end of free movement. We are out of the single market in the sense of | :03:32. | :03:36. | |
being a member, even though we will have access, but they know we can't | :03:37. | :03:42. | |
stay in it. That is right. What she is doing something David Cameron | :03:43. | :03:45. | |
didn't do when he was trying to renegotiate our relationship with | :03:46. | :03:49. | |
the European Union, he never said if you don't give me a good deal on | :03:50. | :03:53. | |
prepared to say to the British people we should leave. Theresa May | :03:54. | :03:59. | |
is saying to, our European counterparts, if you don't give me | :04:00. | :04:04. | |
anything, we are still going. She is saying she still going to deliver on | :04:05. | :04:08. | |
her promise to control borders. What she is hoping the European leaders | :04:09. | :04:11. | |
will give us is a better deal than some of the critics think at the | :04:12. | :04:16. | |
moment. She is going to ask for the moment to begin with. I think she | :04:17. | :04:21. | |
will still ask to be in the single market, despite not meeting any of | :04:22. | :04:27. | |
the criteria -- ask for the moon. Is there any concern, when it comes to | :04:28. | :04:35. | |
putting this repeal of the European community's act through Parliament | :04:36. | :04:41. | |
that she will be in trouble? I don't think MPs in Parliament will vote | :04:42. | :04:44. | |
against the idea of repealing the European Community 's act because | :04:45. | :04:48. | |
everyone knows there has been a referendum and everyone knows what | :04:49. | :04:52. | |
the outcome was. MPs will not be churlish not to say they will vote | :04:53. | :04:55. | |
against that as an idea, but what this allows people to do is to amend | :04:56. | :05:01. | |
the legislation as it goes to Parliament and maybe to cause a bit | :05:02. | :05:06. | |
of trouble. This boat will only happen after Article 50 is | :05:07. | :05:10. | |
triggered, Britain is already on the debate about -- this vote. | :05:11. | :05:16. | |
Parliament will not in that vote be able to stop Brexit from happening, | :05:17. | :05:19. | |
they would just be able to potentially amend its character. | :05:20. | :05:26. | |
Very strong words from Theresa May, saying that MPs cannot have a vote | :05:27. | :05:30. | |
on trigger 50. What about in the House of Lords? It is six to just | :05:31. | :05:40. | |
one in favour of Remain. It is not off the agenda, there is plenty of | :05:41. | :05:46. | |
pretext, if her agenda is being frustrated by anyone, you are right | :05:47. | :05:50. | |
to highlight the House of Lords, but she can go to an election and said | :05:51. | :05:55. | |
she wants a mandate to deliver her social and Brexit agenda. Lots | :05:56. | :06:09. | |
of course the government is hoping we will stop talking about Brexit | :06:10. | :06:14. | |
for the duration of this conference. So the Chancellor Philip Hammond has | :06:15. | :06:21. | |
said that he'll ease off But what do Conference goers | :06:22. | :06:23. | |
here think about progress We sent Adam out with | :06:24. | :06:26. | |
his balls to find out. When George Osborne was Chancellor | :06:27. | :06:34. | |
he was all about driving down the deficit and even getting the public | :06:35. | :06:38. | |
finances into surplus but Philip Hammond seems less bothered, but | :06:39. | :06:42. | |
what about people at the conference? Do they want to ease off with | :06:43. | :06:48. | |
deficit reduction? Hang up the phone and do the mood box. One of the | :06:49. | :06:54. | |
Brexit ministers will stop I will go for ease off because of Brexit. | :06:55. | :07:01. | |
Before that I was crackdown. I think George Osborne did a good job, but | :07:02. | :07:06. | |
many people look at him and they don't like him. Was he a bit | :07:07. | :07:13. | |
obsessed with cuts? Maybe. I'm going to stop you there, Andrea, would you | :07:14. | :07:20. | |
like to have a go at The Daily Politics, would you like to have a | :07:21. | :07:26. | |
go at The Daily Politics, would you like to have a go at The Daily | :07:27. | :07:29. | |
Politics, would you like to have a go at The Daily Politics, would you | :07:30. | :07:32. | |
like to have a go at The Daily Politics balls? Are you politely | :07:33. | :07:35. | |
dismissing my balls? You cannot run a country on a deficit budget. We | :07:36. | :07:43. | |
need to finish what we have started. I suppose you are allowed to read | :07:44. | :07:46. | |
that now he has gone. You weren't allowed to read that last year. | :07:47. | :07:54. | |
Thank you very much. Cracked on. Is there more that can be cut from the | :07:55. | :08:02. | |
public finances? Yes. Such as? Some areas of the health service. You | :08:03. | :08:08. | |
want to cut the NHS? No, but I want to cut the administrators. George | :08:09. | :08:17. | |
Osborne has the edge, I think. Should we have a surplus for 2020? | :08:18. | :08:24. | |
If we can, definitely. Don't abandon the target and keep going. Why are | :08:25. | :08:30. | |
you watching that Boris Johnson speech when you could be doing The | :08:31. | :08:37. | |
Daily Politics balls? Are ministers able to do this without Prime | :08:38. | :08:42. | |
Minister real authority gritter Mark of course. -- primer ministerial | :08:43. | :08:53. | |
authority? What does this mean? It is about the deficit reduction. We | :08:54. | :09:01. | |
have got to crack on. It is time to ease off on the austerity, we have | :09:02. | :09:06. | |
more important things on the table. Deficit reduction? Crack on. When do | :09:07. | :09:14. | |
you want it gone by? As soon as possible. Philip Hammond, the party | :09:15. | :09:20. | |
faithful have issued their instructions, many want you to get | :09:21. | :09:24. | |
on with cracking on with getting it down. STUDIO: There we go. We do | :09:25. | :09:34. | |
need to do our research the famous People's budget which led to a huge | :09:35. | :09:39. | |
stand-off with the House of Lords, it was not Campbell Bannon, he died | :09:40. | :09:45. | |
in 1905, it was Asquith who was the Liberal leader in 1909. But Campbell | :09:46. | :09:51. | |
Bannon did put some of the changes in place. Asquith's famous words, | :09:52. | :09:58. | |
what were they? Keep your eye on Paisley, that's the way the country | :09:59. | :10:02. | |
will go, I'm not sure you can say that now. No. Philip Hammond has a | :10:03. | :10:09. | |
difficult juggling act, he has to do a change in direction but he has got | :10:10. | :10:13. | |
to give convincing reasons pick up the vat different, -- to give | :10:14. | :10:23. | |
convincing reasons, and it can't be that different after what has gone | :10:24. | :10:26. | |
on over six years. We are still spending too much on day-to-day | :10:27. | :10:30. | |
expenses, current expenditure, but I would ease off on squeezing capital | :10:31. | :10:34. | |
spending, with global borrowing rates so low it makes sense to | :10:35. | :10:40. | |
borrow long-term to improve our roads and railways. Cabinet spending | :10:41. | :10:47. | |
is down. Exactly. George Osborne was wearing his high viz jackets, but he | :10:48. | :10:52. | |
cut capital spending and we weren't investing for the long term, but I | :10:53. | :10:55. | |
think it is important that we change in the post Brexit world, many | :10:56. | :10:59. | |
people on the left feel we have become the sweatshop of Europe, | :11:00. | :11:03. | |
workers' rights will be thrown out of the window and we become a highly | :11:04. | :11:09. | |
deregulated low tax, no rights workforce, but I think what we are | :11:10. | :11:13. | |
seeing from Theresa May and Philip Hammond is a different vision, high | :11:14. | :11:17. | |
infrastructure and high skills and high investment. Almost as though at | :11:18. | :11:22. | |
the time we are leaving the European Union we are becoming more European | :11:23. | :11:27. | |
and more Christian Democratic in how we construct our policy. Didn't Ed | :11:28. | :11:37. | |
Balls want to borrow to invest? Quite similar to John McDonnell, | :11:38. | :11:42. | |
there has been a continuation. He wanted to borrow for everything, not | :11:43. | :11:44. | |
just investment, that is the difference. We talk about | :11:45. | :11:48. | |
politicians wanting to have their cake and eat it, and I think Philip | :11:49. | :11:52. | |
Hammond would have taken two balls and put them in both holes if he had | :11:53. | :11:58. | |
done that. He will say they want to ease off, no more targets, but on | :11:59. | :12:02. | |
the other hand he will say they will crack on with fiscal consolidation | :12:03. | :12:08. | |
and this is about messaging, Philip Hammond did not think targets were | :12:09. | :12:12. | |
good idea and I think we will see a change in tone from George Osborne's | :12:13. | :12:17. | |
days. Not long to wait. Thank you for being with me this morning. | :12:18. | :12:20. | |
So, the Chancellor Philip Hammond will be getting to his feet | :12:21. | :12:23. | |
in the conference hall to deliver his set-piece speech | :12:24. | :12:25. | |
So what do we know about what he's likely to say? | :12:26. | :12:31. | |
There has been an overnight briefing. | :12:32. | :12:33. | |
Mr Hammond, who as Foreign Secretary, was in favour of Remain, | :12:34. | :12:36. | |
warned this morning of an economic "rollercoaster" as Britain | :12:37. | :12:38. | |
He insisted the UK Economy is "very strong going into this period" | :12:39. | :12:48. | |
but that there needed to be a "realistic expectation | :12:49. | :12:54. | |
of the turbulence" once Article 50 is triggered which Theresa May said | :12:55. | :12:57. | |
yesterday would happen by the end of March next year. | :12:58. | :13:01. | |
In his speech today, the Chancellor will confirm | :13:02. | :13:04. | |
that the government is abandoning his predecessor, | :13:05. | :13:07. | |
George Osborne's, fiscal target to get the UK budget | :13:08. | :13:10. | |
And that this new fiscal framework will be set out | :13:11. | :13:18. | |
in the Autumn Statement in November for the "new circumstances | :13:19. | :13:20. | |
Mr Hammond will also launch a ?3 billion Home Building Fund | :13:21. | :13:25. | |
for England, to build 25,000 extra homes over the next four years | :13:26. | :13:30. | |
and a further 200,000 houses in the longterm. | :13:31. | :13:38. | |
The move has been seen as a signal that the Government will allow | :13:39. | :13:45. | |
for greater borrowing to boost the economy if needed during the two | :13:46. | :13:48. | |
years to 2019 that the UK will have to reach a deal with the EU. | :13:49. | :13:57. | |
I've been joined by the minister for digital policy and ally | :13:58. | :13:59. | |
of the former Chancellor George Osborne, Matt Hancock. | :14:00. | :14:03. | |
Welcome back to the programme. Why is he abandoning George Osborne's | :14:04. | :14:12. | |
targets? Clearly things have changed and the economy has changed and | :14:13. | :14:15. | |
there was a vote for Brexit and this is a perfectly reasonable response | :14:16. | :14:21. | |
to that. George Osborne said if we voted for Brexit there would have to | :14:22. | :14:24. | |
be a punishment budget, what happened? Circumstances have changed | :14:25. | :14:29. | |
and we have seen what has happened in the economy over the summer and | :14:30. | :14:33. | |
the appropriate response, we have seen that in monetary policy, the | :14:34. | :14:41. | |
cut in interest rates, and clearly given the uncertainty and the | :14:42. | :14:43. | |
challenges, it is more difficult to get to that point. The punishment | :14:44. | :14:50. | |
budget threat was wrong? I don't think it is worth going through the | :14:51. | :14:54. | |
referendum. I think it is. You said all manner of things would happen, | :14:55. | :14:58. | |
you said we would have a punishment budget if we left, but we haven't | :14:59. | :15:02. | |
had a punishment budget, and the physical targets are going to be | :15:03. | :15:05. | |
loosened if anything, so that was just plain wrong -- fiscal targets. | :15:06. | :15:12. | |
What matters is how we respond to policy now. The report you told us | :15:13. | :15:19. | |
in the past is unreliable, then it covers how we look at what you tell | :15:20. | :15:26. | |
us in the present and future? It is only fair to admit that the | :15:27. | :15:28. | |
punishment budget was a huge mistake and is unnecessary even though we | :15:29. | :15:34. | |
voted to leave? What the Chancellor has set out in what we have heard | :15:35. | :15:37. | |
about this morning, he was talking about this morning, how you respond | :15:38. | :15:42. | |
to the circumstances now. Things have changed. On this point, there | :15:43. | :15:48. | |
is an important question of how the economy responds given Brexit and | :15:49. | :15:55. | |
there are signs that has not been as bad as the independent forecasters | :15:56. | :15:58. | |
predicted and I think that is good news. What has changed? | :15:59. | :16:05. | |
You say the fiscal targets have been changed because the economy's | :16:06. | :16:11. | |
changed. In what way has the economy changed in the 100 days since we | :16:12. | :16:15. | |
voted to leave? The forecasts are going back to where they were before | :16:16. | :16:20. | |
June 23rd, so what's changed? Some of them have come off. There has | :16:21. | :16:24. | |
been a rebound after that. I think that's good. The jobs numbers have | :16:25. | :16:29. | |
been good. If you look at, for instance, the services sector. Rose | :16:30. | :16:35. | |
in July? Fell very sharply in July then rose again. Back in August? | :16:36. | :16:40. | |
You've got to look at what's actually happening in the economy | :16:41. | :16:44. | |
and then you've got to set fiscal policy according to that. But before | :16:45. | :16:49. | |
the referendum, the consensus forecast was that the economy would | :16:50. | :16:54. | |
grow by around 2% this year. 100 days into the Brexit process, the | :16:55. | :16:59. | |
consensus forecast is back at 2% so I ask you on the broad macro | :17:00. | :17:03. | |
economic figures, what has changed to justify a change in the targets? | :17:04. | :17:08. | |
The forecasts for next year are lower than they were before the | :17:09. | :17:11. | |
vote. That is a change. And if you think about it, you've got to set | :17:12. | :17:15. | |
fiscal policy according to what is expected to happen. So we'll receive | :17:16. | :17:20. | |
the forecast from the Office for Budget Responsibility ahead of the | :17:21. | :17:23. | |
Autumn Statement and that's what you've got to use as the basis. | :17:24. | :17:27. | |
Look, when the circumstances change in economics, you then have to set | :17:28. | :17:31. | |
your policy according to your best assessment of the circumstances. | :17:32. | :17:36. | |
People making the forecasts that the economy will slow next year are the | :17:37. | :17:40. | |
same people that made the forecasts that it would slow in the immediate | :17:41. | :17:43. | |
aftermath of June 23rd, they were wrong. Well, according to the | :17:44. | :17:48. | |
figures and surveys, there was a big dip in July. Now, there has been a | :17:49. | :17:52. | |
rebound, but I think that's good news and now we've got to assess | :17:53. | :17:57. | |
things, according to where we are. If you start to reassess the deficit | :17:58. | :18:02. | |
figures, doesn't that mean all that six years of relentless emphasis on | :18:03. | :18:06. | |
deficit reduction, in the end you were inflicting pain on the British | :18:07. | :18:10. | |
people that wasn't necessary? No. I think that's completely wrong. The | :18:11. | :18:13. | |
reason it's wrong is that the deficit is down by two thirds | :18:14. | :18:22. | |
already. It was at a historic high. It was wholly unsustainable. It's | :18:23. | :18:26. | |
still unsustainably high now, still needs to come down, but we always | :18:27. | :18:30. | |
said the pace at which you bring that down should be set by economic | :18:31. | :18:35. | |
circumstances and what is possible. The new Chancellor is making an | :18:36. | :18:39. | |
assessment on the new economic figures, given the new facts, and | :18:40. | :18:45. | |
then we'll set that out. So the deficit will continue to come down? | :18:46. | :18:50. | |
I certainly hope so. Where else are you going to cut if you are going to | :18:51. | :18:53. | |
increase spending on infrastructure investment? The deficit was already | :18:54. | :19:00. | |
projected to fall because it's been coming down from 10% of GDP, down by | :19:01. | :19:05. | |
two thirds, it was projected to go down further than that. I'm sure | :19:06. | :19:08. | |
we'll get the full figures in the Autumn Statement. But what the | :19:09. | :19:13. | |
Chancellor was saying today was that the pre-Brexit proposal to be able | :19:14. | :19:21. | |
to read surplus is not going to be possible. He's been very clear that | :19:22. | :19:25. | |
the deficit needs to come down. He's also going to spend more though. If | :19:26. | :19:29. | |
you thought you had to get the deficit down because if you didn't | :19:30. | :19:35. | |
you would pay a penalty in the bond markets but it turns out in this | :19:36. | :19:39. | |
strange time of QE you don't pay a penalty? I put that the other way | :19:40. | :19:43. | |
around. Because we have the clear commitment, political will and | :19:44. | :19:48. | |
determination to get it down, that's why those bond rates have remained | :19:49. | :19:52. | |
low or one of the reasons. Countries with far worse fiscal positions than | :19:53. | :19:58. | |
us, far bigger percentage of their GDP into national debt, they are | :19:59. | :20:02. | |
borrowing just as cheaply as we are? There were hardly any countries that | :20:03. | :20:06. | |
had far worse fiscal positions than us. National debt is 135% of GDP. | :20:07. | :20:12. | |
They borrowed a bit more expensively than us. There has been no penalty | :20:13. | :20:19. | |
for those who've had more expensive fiscal policies? That's not true. | :20:20. | :20:25. | |
Italy's deficit was smaller than us at the start of the process, it's | :20:26. | :20:29. | |
now bigger. And they are borrowing cheaply? No. We had several years in | :20:30. | :20:37. | |
which we had a potential crisis in the borrowing rate when the cost of | :20:38. | :20:46. | |
its borrowing were much, much higher higher than us because we have got a | :20:47. | :20:49. | |
plan and they didn't. The fact is, you are now telling us that we'll be | :20:50. | :20:55. | |
able to borrow more than planned, to borrow to invest, and we won't pay a | :20:56. | :20:59. | |
penalty in the bond markets and we can still borrow just as cheaply as | :21:00. | :21:07. | |
we have? Correct. Correct? That's not exactly how I put it. You have | :21:08. | :21:12. | |
to have a sustainable fiscal position. The current level is still | :21:13. | :21:16. | |
sustainable and it still needs to come down. Ed Balls campaigned on | :21:17. | :21:25. | |
this in 2015, he wanted to borrow more to invest, that's what you want | :21:26. | :21:28. | |
to do? There is a difference in two important ways. One is of scale, we | :21:29. | :21:33. | |
haven't heard the full details from the Chancellor yet, I'm sure we'll | :21:34. | :21:36. | |
cut to him in a minute, but the second is a determination. We have | :21:37. | :21:40. | |
proved over and over again that we are willing to take the decisions | :21:41. | :21:44. | |
necessary to make sure we have sustainable public finances. We have | :21:45. | :21:50. | |
discussed this many times. I am absolutely clear in our | :21:51. | :21:53. | |
determination to have sustainable public finances. This is Ed Balls | :21:54. | :21:59. | |
light isn't it? No. No. You are going to borrow, he was going to | :22:00. | :22:04. | |
borrow, he may have borrowed not quite as much. You deny that you | :22:05. | :22:08. | |
could do that in the election campaign, you said we couldn't | :22:09. | :22:12. | |
borrow more to invest? No. The distinction is, we have got the | :22:13. | :22:15. | |
political will and plan to bring the deficit down. The Ed Balls plan? The | :22:16. | :22:20. | |
plan according to Labour was not to get there at all. ?3 billion for new | :22:21. | :22:26. | |
home-building, how much of that is new money? Well, you will see where | :22:27. | :22:30. | |
the money comes from set out in detail in the Autumn Statement. But | :22:31. | :22:36. | |
this is money that wasn't in the budget for house building before if | :22:37. | :22:40. | |
that's what you mean. ?2 billion is being borrowed? Well, ultimately... | :22:41. | :22:44. | |
Which you told us you couldn't do, borrow to build? No. This is about | :22:45. | :22:49. | |
getting money into house building. By borrowing? It's one of the most | :22:50. | :22:53. | |
important things we can do is getting house building... We know | :22:54. | :22:57. | |
that, why didn't you do it before? We had a whole series of different | :22:58. | :23:01. | |
policies in this area. Which have worked? We are going to take a | :23:02. | :23:06. | |
slightly different approach, using public sector land. And using the | :23:07. | :23:09. | |
public sector balance sheet to pay for it. When you take the measures | :23:10. | :23:15. | |
together, I've seen figures, but how many new homes a year will this | :23:16. | :23:20. | |
produce? The aim of these packages specifically is to get just over | :23:21. | :23:25. | |
200,000 new homes. Per year? And over... We have also got to make | :23:26. | :23:30. | |
sure that at the same time, the private sector house building gets | :23:31. | :23:35. | |
going faster than it has been. This will be private sector housing won't | :23:36. | :23:45. | |
it? Part of it is on public sector land and using the public and | :23:46. | :23:50. | |
private balance sheets. Owned by land builders, that is incredibly | :23:51. | :23:54. | |
important. So 200,000 houses a year? Just over in total. That is what | :23:55. | :23:59. | |
David Cameron pledged when he became Prime Minister. What did he achieve? | :24:00. | :24:04. | |
In terms of starts, the starts... Completions? What is the average | :24:05. | :24:08. | |
completion rate under the Cameron years. Why don't you tell me? | :24:09. | :24:14. | |
123,000. Exactly. That's the average over the six years. So nowhere near | :24:15. | :24:19. | |
200,000? No. It was incredibly difficult at first because we were | :24:20. | :24:22. | |
still in the throes of the great recession. Actually that figure came | :24:23. | :24:27. | |
up and the fact that, of course, the starts figure improves before the | :24:28. | :24:32. | |
completions figure by its nature and that figure had got up to pre-crash | :24:33. | :24:38. | |
levels. Actually it hasn't. After six years of Conservative | :24:39. | :24:41. | |
Government, how many houses did we complete in the last fiscal year? I | :24:42. | :24:46. | |
haven't got that figure in my head. 145,000. Right so it's gone up. Way | :24:47. | :24:53. | |
behind. Still the lowest completion figures since the 1920s. That's not | :24:54. | :24:58. | |
actually right. Because what you've got to look at is how fast we have | :24:59. | :25:05. | |
managed to get the starts in housing going because that's going to | :25:06. | :25:07. | |
foreshadow completions in nine months or a year when the houses get | :25:08. | :25:17. | |
done. The starts in the year to June 2016 for 144,000, which is actually | :25:18. | :25:23. | |
lower than the 145,000 you managed to complete the previous year so the | :25:24. | :25:28. | |
starts are not starting up. We should have an injection of more | :25:29. | :25:32. | |
support to get more house-building and to bring more house builders on | :25:33. | :25:35. | |
instead of just the big ones that we've got at the moment. I've got | :25:36. | :25:40. | |
that, I understand that. Yes. But Gordon Brown made the same promises, | :25:41. | :25:45. | |
Tony Blair made them, 200,000 houses a year, I mean the Blair Brown | :25:46. | :25:48. | |
averages are better than yours but not great. Brown 136,000 | :25:49. | :25:54. | |
completions, Blair was 148,000 completions. No-one, politicians | :25:55. | :25:59. | |
again and again tell me we'll get to 200,000, we never get it, we still | :26:00. | :26:05. | |
get these incredibly historic low completions and I don't understand | :26:06. | :26:08. | |
why what's being announced today is really going to make any difference | :26:09. | :26:12. | |
to that? What I don't understand is this argument that because it's | :26:13. | :26:15. | |
difficult we shouldn't try. Of course we should. Making sure that | :26:16. | :26:20. | |
we get that level of house building up is important. There's a huge | :26:21. | :26:24. | |
amount of work that's gone into it. And this is a slightly different | :26:25. | :26:27. | |
approach because all of that approach that you talked about in | :26:28. | :26:32. | |
the past was all based on trying to incentivise on the private side and | :26:33. | :26:36. | |
then some local authority and Housing Association building. This | :26:37. | :26:38. | |
is using the central Government balance sheet in a new way. Sure. | :26:39. | :26:43. | |
Are you going to build a lot of new council houses? We have built far | :26:44. | :26:47. | |
more... But they didn't build any. Are you going to build a lot of | :26:48. | :26:52. | |
them? There is a combination of council houses, yes, also Housing | :26:53. | :26:56. | |
Association and social housing and then houses, private sector houses | :26:57. | :26:59. | |
for people to buy. It's good to have you back on. We | :27:00. | :27:04. | |
have run out of time. When do you think you will return to frontline | :27:05. | :27:08. | |
politics? Who? You. I'm having a whale of a time. That's different | :27:09. | :27:12. | |
from frontline politics. I'm on the Daily Politics, Andrew. You're | :27:13. | :27:16. | |
always on the Daily Politics! You're always on that. It was delightful to | :27:17. | :27:20. | |
see you again, thank you Matt Hancock, who is the Minister for | :27:21. | :27:25. | |
Digital policy these days! Whatever that means. Anyway, shall we have a | :27:26. | :27:29. | |
look in the hall and see what is going on. The Transport Secretary | :27:30. | :27:37. | |
Chris Grayling is making his speech. He's reconfirmed the Government's | :27:38. | :27:42. | |
commitment to HS II and, given that we are in Birmingham, he's pledged | :27:43. | :27:47. | |
?12 billion towards the transport component of the so-called Midlands | :27:48. | :27:52. | |
Engine. ?12 billion, where's that come from? The north is the northern | :27:53. | :27:57. | |
powerhouse, the Midlands has the Midlands engine. We'll have to see | :27:58. | :28:01. | |
what Lincolnshire gets next or Cumberland! We shall see. Anyway, we | :28:02. | :28:07. | |
are joined by Laura Kuenssberg, Paul Johnson of the IFS also. Welcome to | :28:08. | :28:12. | |
you both. I don't know if you heard my interview with Matt Hancock | :28:13. | :28:19. | |
there, but how much of this change in deficit reduction targets cast a | :28:20. | :28:23. | |
shadow over all the previous emphasis on deficit reduction? | :28:24. | :28:26. | |
Things have genuinely changed and, of course, the testify sit's come | :28:27. | :28:32. | |
down by an awful lot -- deficit's come down. By the original plan it | :28:33. | :28:36. | |
was meant to have gone now all together. That was down to the | :28:37. | :28:40. | |
economy not going anywhere near as well as hoped. What's happening now | :28:41. | :28:45. | |
is that we've got a huge amount of uncertainty over the economy over | :28:46. | :28:50. | |
the next three or four years, but actually the next ten or 20 years, | :28:51. | :28:56. | |
so to say that you are going to have a specific target given that | :28:57. | :28:58. | |
uncertainty, it's appropriate to move away from that, as indeed | :28:59. | :29:02. | |
George Osborne said he'd do. I'm sure we are still going to get some | :29:03. | :29:06. | |
focus on concerns about the total level of deficit and debt. Exactly | :29:07. | :29:11. | |
how that is couched, it remains to be seen. The amount of money from | :29:12. | :29:17. | |
the Midlands Engine is ?12 million, not ?12 billion! Quite a difference. | :29:18. | :29:25. | |
Sorry to have raised the hopes of the Birmingham people. Probably a | :29:26. | :29:30. | |
heart attack in Manchester! Mr Hammond has a difficult balancing | :29:31. | :29:33. | |
act, I suggest, Laura on two fronts today. He has to make a change in | :29:34. | :29:39. | |
policy, a change in emphasis on fiscal stance from his predecessor, | :29:40. | :29:45. | |
but at the same time, that is one thing, the other thing is he can't | :29:46. | :29:49. | |
really tell us what he has in store until the Autumn Statement on | :29:50. | :29:52. | |
November 23rd? Absolutely and he's constricted in that sense on both | :29:53. | :29:56. | |
sides. In his nature, he's a very different kind of politician. Over | :29:57. | :29:59. | |
the years we have gotten used to the Chancellor's speech being a huge | :30:00. | :30:03. | |
event, the Chancellor had his own hat stuffed full of his own rabbits, | :30:04. | :30:08. | |
he enjoyed revealing things with a flourish towards the end of the | :30:09. | :30:11. | |
speech, rounded that too and in a sense George Osborne carried on that | :30:12. | :30:14. | |
tradition, with the Chancellor having almost as big a day as the | :30:15. | :30:20. | |
Prime Minister's speech. But he's not that kind of character, it's | :30:21. | :30:25. | |
partly because he has to keep his goodies for the statement. The data | :30:26. | :30:30. | |
about the post-referendum is only just starting to trickle in so they | :30:31. | :30:33. | |
are not sure what position they'll be at the end of November. It's a | :30:34. | :30:36. | |
measure of the fact this is a different Government. He's a | :30:37. | :30:39. | |
different kind of politician, Theresa May is a different kind of | :30:40. | :30:43. | |
politician, flash is out, if you like, but Philip Hammond is | :30:44. | :30:46. | |
nonetheless very determined, as we have seen from this morning, to | :30:47. | :30:50. | |
basically sketch out a different path. Targets are out, frameworks | :30:51. | :30:55. | |
are in and politically, maybe not practically, but politically that is | :30:56. | :30:56. | |
very different. Infrastructure spending is the new | :30:57. | :31:08. | |
buzzword. Whereas infrastructure spending can improve the long-term | :31:09. | :31:11. | |
supply side performance of the economy, in terms of Keynesian pump | :31:12. | :31:16. | |
priming it doesn't have much of a speedy impact? That is broadly | :31:17. | :31:22. | |
right, and the important thing about the infrastructure and improving the | :31:23. | :31:27. | |
long-term economy, it is a long-term think governments can have a big | :31:28. | :31:31. | |
effect on our productivity, but not next year, maybe in ten years, | :31:32. | :31:35. | |
because these things take a while. In terms of pump priming, these | :31:36. | :31:41. | |
projects take a long time to happen. If you look back at the last Labour | :31:42. | :31:45. | |
government, every year they were missing by billions the amount they | :31:46. | :31:48. | |
were hoping to spend on infrastructure, they just couldn't | :31:49. | :31:51. | |
get the money out of the door, and we actually don't know, even if you | :31:52. | :31:56. | |
wanted to pump prime, we don't know if this is the next couple of years | :31:57. | :32:00. | |
when you want to pump prime or it is a longer-term thing when we actually | :32:01. | :32:05. | |
come out of the European Union. Theresa May has been out this | :32:06. | :32:10. | |
morning in Birmingham and was visiting a building site, | :32:11. | :32:14. | |
politicians have a special like of building sites. The whole city is | :32:15. | :32:19. | |
undergoing a massive renovation programme. Not wearing high | :32:20. | :32:26. | |
visibility jackets, there, unlike the previous Chancellor. There she | :32:27. | :32:37. | |
is. I'm told this is the new HSBC headquarters. The big bag coming to | :32:38. | :32:45. | |
the Midlands. One of the interesting things, in the speech from savage | :32:46. | :32:50. | |
avid and what will be undermined by Philip Hammond, something broader, | :32:51. | :32:55. | |
ministers are on the one for policies which will be able to show | :32:56. | :32:59. | |
a difference before the next general election -- on the hunt. | :33:00. | :33:04. | |
Infrastructure promises have been scattered around like confetti in | :33:05. | :33:07. | |
the last couple of years and everyone thinks it is a good idea, | :33:08. | :33:11. | |
who doesn't think we should invest in the future of the country? The | :33:12. | :33:16. | |
problem is it takes years to make a tangible difference in terms of jobs | :33:17. | :33:20. | |
and a tangible difference in terms of the lines of voters, and | :33:21. | :33:25. | |
ministers have a sense that they are not just looking for the right thing | :33:26. | :33:28. | |
to do, but things they believe they can show progress on before the next | :33:29. | :33:33. | |
general election. That is what is behind some of the announcements | :33:34. | :33:39. | |
from Sajid Javid, they want to be able to do things they can show | :33:40. | :33:47. | |
progress on, which is not easy. Mr Obama said they were shovel ready | :33:48. | :33:51. | |
jobs, but then he had problems showing them. That is the | :33:52. | :33:59. | |
difficulty. The Chancellor is being introduced, so I may interrupt you, | :34:00. | :34:03. | |
but it seems you can widen the deficit and allow for slower deficit | :34:04. | :34:06. | |
reduction and you pay no penalty in the bond markets which we would not | :34:07. | :34:11. | |
have thought ten years ago. In large degree that is a reflection of the | :34:12. | :34:14. | |
weakness of the world economy, people are looking for what they | :34:15. | :34:24. | |
consider to be a relatively safe market, sovereign debt, despite the | :34:25. | :34:27. | |
relatively high level of deficit, it still looks very safe relative to | :34:28. | :34:32. | |
the uncertainties that surround the rest of the UK economy and the | :34:33. | :34:37. | |
international, me. In terms of the change to go for investment in order | :34:38. | :34:40. | |
to be able to spend cash which is not a change from the previous | :34:41. | :34:45. | |
administration, even though George Osborne said he might go down this | :34:46. | :34:49. | |
path. Philip Hammond and Theresa May have not woken up thinking, we are | :34:50. | :34:52. | |
now going to be full throttle Keynesians, they are not huge | :34:53. | :34:58. | |
converts to massive borrowings, to massive projects, and I understand | :34:59. | :35:02. | |
it will be relatively small, ?2 billion borrowing for housing and | :35:03. | :35:08. | |
equivalent amounts for other projects, and so this is a change, | :35:09. | :35:13. | |
but this is not a 180 degrees flip for them to be pursuing a different | :35:14. | :35:19. | |
economic philosophy. With housing committee to get the planning | :35:20. | :35:24. | |
permissions, that can happen quickly, you can employ a lot of | :35:25. | :35:28. | |
people and people have new houses and they buy a new kitchen -- with | :35:29. | :35:33. | |
housing, you can get the planning permissions. It is what happened and | :35:34. | :35:42. | |
helped the 1930s in this STUDIO: -- in this country. Planning | :35:43. | :35:47. | |
permission is the problem. It is easing up little, no government has | :35:48. | :35:50. | |
come anywhere near meeting the targets they have set themselves so | :35:51. | :35:56. | |
there are constraints, but you can probably build housing more quickly | :35:57. | :36:02. | |
than you can build a big New Road. Or a high-speed railway. It has a | :36:03. | :36:07. | |
political problem for this party, because of the demand for more new | :36:08. | :36:12. | |
homes which is greatest in the Tory Home Counties shires. Indeed. The | :36:13. | :36:20. | |
new Communities Secretary Sajid Javid was addressing Tory | :36:21. | :36:22. | |
councillors last but, maybe not reading them the riot act, but he is | :36:23. | :36:28. | |
pretty determined to say to the foot shoulders and -- the soldiers, -- to | :36:29. | :36:38. | |
the foot soldiers, he says they have got to be not as controlling and | :36:39. | :36:43. | |
protective of the parts of the country that you represent. We have | :36:44. | :36:46. | |
heard this on politicians before. Many times. You lose count of the | :36:47. | :36:51. | |
number of times this has been said, but I suspect late in the year there | :36:52. | :36:56. | |
might be more legislation, another housing white Paper, perhaps, that | :36:57. | :36:59. | |
will go further in easing up planning restrictions. There has | :37:00. | :37:06. | |
been a bit of change, but nowhere near enough if the government is to | :37:07. | :37:13. | |
get anywhere near its target. They are way behind the target, this must | :37:14. | :37:16. | |
be the longest introduction of the Chancellor of the Exchequer in | :37:17. | :37:22. | |
living memory. The MP introducing him is still talking. Would it | :37:23. | :37:28. | |
matter if in the Autumn Statement he doesn't set a date for a surplus? | :37:29. | :37:32. | |
Would anyone care? Is it not more important that the markets CB | :37:33. | :37:37. | |
deficit gets smaller and smaller, and the surplus was a kind of George | :37:38. | :37:44. | |
Osborne conceit. -- see the deficit. I think you are right, given the | :37:45. | :37:48. | |
uncertainty it would be a mistake to say we will get to surplus in 2020 | :37:49. | :37:55. | |
or 2023, but he can set out a path and an ambition and he can say that | :37:56. | :38:01. | |
we will come as George Osborne did, we will aim in five years' time to | :38:02. | :38:05. | |
be getting to surplus but if the economy changes we will adjust what | :38:06. | :38:09. | |
we are trying to achieve and push it further out. Is the Prime Minister | :38:10. | :38:14. | |
going to get away and stop talking about Brexit question what can they | :38:15. | :38:21. | |
not help themselves? It will be interesting to see a Philip Hammond | :38:22. | :38:23. | |
addresses it in any detail, but I don't think he will. It is | :38:24. | :38:27. | |
overshadowing everything at this conference, no question. It was a | :38:28. | :38:31. | |
cute political ploy for Theresa May to give a speech yesterday, a | :38:32. | :38:36. | |
long-time aide Tory leader has done that on the first aid conference, -- | :38:37. | :38:43. | |
a long time since a Tory leader has done that on the first day of | :38:44. | :38:47. | |
conference. Her plan was to get that out of the way, but that is all the | :38:48. | :38:52. | |
chat. People are saying, did she really mean it yesterday when she | :38:53. | :38:57. | |
said there would be a hard Brexit? Party leaders always say what they | :38:58. | :39:02. | |
need at that moment. Of course they do. At last, here we go. Into the | :39:03. | :39:09. | |
conference call for the Chancellor of the Exchequer, Philip Hammond, to | :39:10. | :39:13. | |
give his first address to the Tory party faithful at the annual | :39:14. | :39:15. | |
conference in his new position as Chancellor. This is Philip Hammond. | :39:16. | :39:25. | |
Amanda, you held off a ferociously pincer movement in Cannock Chase | :39:26. | :39:31. | |
annual result was one of the highlights of that result last May | :39:32. | :39:34. | |
and we congratulate you on a fantastic achievement. APPLAUSE | :39:35. | :39:43. | |
It is great to be back in Birmingham and a privilege to address this | :39:44. | :39:46. | |
conference as Chancellor of the Exchequer. And I don't think I'm | :39:47. | :39:52. | |
giving away any state secrets in admitting that I just might have | :39:53. | :39:57. | |
hoped to have been a Treasury minister a bit earlier in my | :39:58. | :40:03. | |
political career. In fact having been shadow chief secretary for | :40:04. | :40:07. | |
three years until the 2010 general election, I rather suspect that that | :40:08. | :40:13. | |
infamous note from Liam Byrne, you remember the one, dear Chief | :40:14. | :40:19. | |
secretary, I'm afraid there's no money, I rather think that note was | :40:20. | :40:27. | |
meant for me, but it went to David Laws, who published it, and is now | :40:28. | :40:31. | |
trying to get it back. It became the shortest political suicide note in | :40:32. | :40:37. | |
history, perhaps. Liam Byrne, your message to your successor was an | :40:38. | :40:42. | |
admission of Labour's abject failure. APPLAUSE | :40:43. | :40:52. | |
I will let you into a secret, my predecessor didn't leave me a note. | :40:53. | :40:59. | |
But if he had this is what it would have said, dear Chancellor, | :41:00. | :41:06. | |
employment is up, wages are rising, the deficit is down and income tax | :41:07. | :41:11. | |
has been cut for tens images of people, that is the Conservative | :41:12. | :41:14. | |
record, and that is the difference Conservative leader makes. APPLAUSE | :41:15. | :41:29. | |
Anyway, I got to the Treasury in the end. I'm delighted to have such an | :41:30. | :41:37. | |
excellent team supporting me. David Gauke as chief secretary, J Ellison | :41:38. | :41:47. | |
as chief financial secretary, Simon Kirby, ably supported by Steve | :41:48. | :41:54. | |
Barclay the Commons whips. Please give them a big round of applause. | :41:55. | :41:56. | |
APPLAUSE I went down to the Bank of England | :41:57. | :42:06. | |
last week to check on the gold reserves, what is left of them. You | :42:07. | :42:11. | |
remember Gordon Brown sold half of them off at the bottom of the | :42:12. | :42:18. | |
market, losing British taxpayers a staggering ?7 billion in the | :42:19. | :42:21. | |
process, another example of Labour's failure. We last met in this hall | :42:22. | :42:29. | |
two years ago on The Eagles the fight of our political lives -- two | :42:30. | :42:37. | |
years ago on the eve of the fight. There was our Conservative vision of | :42:38. | :42:45. | |
a future, with the economy moving forward, and Labour's offer with a | :42:46. | :42:49. | |
vision of Britain going back to the old days of tax, spend, and waste. | :42:50. | :42:55. | |
It is a credit to your hard work and the good sense of the British people | :42:56. | :43:00. | |
that we won that fight and we should not forget the debt is party owes to | :43:01. | :43:06. | |
the man who led us out of opposition and into coalition and then on to | :43:07. | :43:08. | |
form the first Conservative government in 18 years. Our former | :43:09. | :43:13. | |
leader and Prime Minister David Cameron. APPLAUSE | :43:14. | :43:31. | |
But today, my friends, we meet on the eve of a different challenge. No | :43:32. | :43:39. | |
less daunting and no less crucial to the future of our country. That vote | :43:40. | :43:46. | |
on the 23rd of June, the first of its kind anywhere in Europe, was a | :43:47. | :43:50. | |
defining moment, not just of this Parliament, but of this generation. | :43:51. | :43:56. | |
The moment when the British people decided to change direction and map | :43:57. | :44:01. | |
out a new path for our country's future. Whichever side of the | :44:02. | :44:06. | |
arguing we were on we should not forget this, only one mainstream | :44:07. | :44:11. | |
political party was prepared to give the British people their say and | :44:12. | :44:17. | |
only one party delivered that referendum and only one party | :44:18. | :44:23. | |
unhesitatingly accepted the result. This great party, the Conservative | :44:24. | :44:24. | |
Party. APPLAUSE That result in June gave clear voice | :44:25. | :44:41. | |
to a desire by the British people for an end to political union and | :44:42. | :44:46. | |
the restoration of control. Control, that keyword. Control over the roles | :44:47. | :44:53. | |
and regulations that govern their lives, control over who can live and | :44:54. | :44:58. | |
work in their country, and control over how their money is spent. And I | :44:59. | :45:04. | |
can reassure the British people of this, that message has been received | :45:05. | :45:13. | |
loud and clear. No ifs and buts, no second referendum, we are leaving | :45:14. | :45:14. | |
the European Union. APPLAUSE But it is equally clear to me that | :45:15. | :45:28. | |
the British people did not vote on June 23rd to become poorer or less | :45:29. | :45:36. | |
secure. So our task is clear. Repatriate our sovereignty, control | :45:37. | :45:38. | |
our borders and seize the opportunities that the wider world | :45:39. | :45:43. | |
has to offer. But do all of this while protecting our economy, our | :45:44. | :45:47. | |
jobs and our living standards. Now, the message may be simple, but I can | :45:48. | :45:52. | |
assure you, the process will be complex. Successful negotiation with | :45:53. | :46:02. | |
the EU 27 will demand patience, experience, meticulous planning and | :46:03. | :46:06. | |
steely resolution. And I know of no-one better equipped to guide us | :46:07. | :46:09. | |
through these negotiations than our brilliant new Prime Minister, | :46:10. | :46:14. | |
Theresa May! APPLAUSE. | :46:15. | :46:29. | |
We should approach these negotiations with self-confidence. | :46:30. | :46:35. | |
Our economy is the fifth largest in the world. Our nation is built upon | :46:36. | :46:41. | |
a history of global trade. Our people are responsible for some of | :46:42. | :46:46. | |
the most significant inventions and discoveries of history. So no-one | :46:47. | :46:51. | |
should be in any doubt that we have the skills, the ingenuity and | :46:52. | :46:55. | |
determination to make a success of Brexit. Starting from a position of | :46:56. | :47:02. | |
strength. And thanks in no small part to the onningions of my | :47:03. | :47:07. | |
predecessor, we enter these negotiations with an economy that is | :47:08. | :47:14. | |
fundamentally robust. It's easy to forget, six years on, the scale of | :47:15. | :47:20. | |
the legacy of Labour's great recession that we inherited in 2010. | :47:21. | :47:24. | |
Turmoil in the markets, a banking system still reeling from the | :47:25. | :47:30. | |
crisis, a deficit of more than 10% of GDP, the highest in our peacetime | :47:31. | :47:36. | |
history, an economy on the brink. It was the decisions that George | :47:37. | :47:40. | |
Osborne took in those early days that pulled us back from the | :47:41. | :47:45. | |
precipice and set us on a course to recovery. The tough early choices... | :47:46. | :47:47. | |
APPLAUSE. Those tough early choices and the | :47:48. | :48:05. | |
doggedness in sticking with them delivered that intangible but | :48:06. | :48:06. | |
indispensable commodity - credibility. Credibility in the | :48:07. | :48:12. | |
markets that helped secure record low borrowing costs, incredibility | :48:13. | :48:16. | |
with business, securing the investment that supported our | :48:17. | :48:20. | |
recovery. And the results are clear for all of us to see. 2.7 million | :48:21. | :48:27. | |
people more in work today under a Conservative Government than in 2010 | :48:28. | :48:31. | |
under Labour. Did we hear that achievement being | :48:32. | :48:34. | |
Lauded in Liverpool last week? Of course not. Because Corbyn's Labour | :48:35. | :48:42. | |
Party has abandoned the agenda of working people deserted the middle | :48:43. | :48:46. | |
ground of British politics in favour of the socialist ideaology of the | :48:47. | :48:52. | |
Metropolitan left-wing elite. Leaving us, the Conservatives, as | :48:53. | :48:55. | |
the true party of British working people. | :48:56. | :48:57. | |
APPLAUSE. Of course, for much of his time as | :48:58. | :49:13. | |
Chancellor, George Osborne faced Ed Balls across the despatch box. | :49:14. | :49:18. | |
Remember Ed Balls? I know you remember him from Saturday night, | :49:19. | :49:22. | |
I'm asking if you remember him in his more minor role as Shadow | :49:23. | :49:27. | |
Chancellor? ! By the way, you know Ed wasn't their first choice for | :49:28. | :49:31. | |
Strictly, they were going to ask Corbyn to do it but then someone | :49:32. | :49:37. | |
told them he had two left feet! LAUGHTER. | :49:38. | :49:46. | |
I watched Ed on Saturday night. I don't want to sound like Craig Revel | :49:47. | :49:53. | |
Horwood but I have to say, I think his charleston is probably better | :49:54. | :49:57. | |
than his economic analysis. Because he told us back then that | :49:58. | :50:02. | |
our policies would push the economy into recession, but he was wrong. | :50:03. | :50:08. | |
Since 2010, Britain has grown faster than any other economy in the G7. He | :50:09. | :50:13. | |
said, we would never replace lost public sector jobs with new private | :50:14. | :50:19. | |
sector jobs, but we did. Not one for one, but seven for one. | :50:20. | :50:23. | |
And that's not all. We got our deficit down by nearly two thirds, | :50:24. | :50:28. | |
we cut the welfare bill, we have kept mortgage rates low protecting | :50:29. | :50:31. | |
millions of homeowners through difficult times, we have cut income | :50:32. | :50:35. | |
tax for 30 million people and taken four million low-paid workers out of | :50:36. | :50:40. | |
income tax all together. I say, not bad for an economy that looked out | :50:41. | :50:44. | |
for the count when we took it over in 2010 and a record of which this | :50:45. | :50:49. | |
party can be justly proud. APPLAUSE. | :50:50. | :51:01. | |
But we cannot rest on our laurels. We must look to the future, to the | :51:02. | :51:09. | |
economic challenges ahead. Let's start with the immediate challenge. | :51:10. | :51:14. | |
The markets have calmed since the reference dumb vote and many of the | :51:15. | :51:19. | |
recent data have been better than expected. | :51:20. | :51:25. | |
That is the underlying strength of our economy. But there is no room | :51:26. | :51:32. | |
for complacency. Many businesses which trade with the EU are | :51:33. | :51:38. | |
uncertain Tebbit a what lie -- about what lies ahead. | :51:39. | :51:44. | |
About the deal that will be done, about the changes they'll have to | :51:45. | :51:49. | |
make to adapt to the post-Brexit world and about what it will all | :51:50. | :51:53. | |
mean for their employees, their company, their business model. | :51:54. | :51:59. | |
I understand their concerns. Business, after all, hates | :52:00. | :52:02. | |
uncertainty. But let me repeat the pledge of the | :52:03. | :52:08. | |
Prime Minister yesterday. As we negotiate our exit from the EU and | :52:09. | :52:13. | |
our future relationship with it, this Government will fight for the | :52:14. | :52:18. | |
best possible deal for British business and British workers, the | :52:19. | :52:23. | |
best possible access to European markets for our manufacturing and | :52:24. | :52:28. | |
services industries and the best possible freedoms for our | :52:29. | :52:33. | |
entrepreneurs and global exporters ensuring that Britain after Brexit | :52:34. | :52:36. | |
will remain one of the best places in the world for a business to | :52:37. | :52:41. | |
invest, to innovate and to grow. APPLAUSE. | :52:42. | :52:53. | |
The independent Bank of England successfully cut interest rates to | :52:54. | :52:57. | |
restore confidence in the wake of the vote. But as the economy | :52:58. | :53:02. | |
responds over the coming months, fiscal policy may also have a role | :53:03. | :53:06. | |
to play. So let me be clear. Throughout the | :53:07. | :53:11. | |
negotiating process, we are ready to take whatever steps are necessary to | :53:12. | :53:15. | |
protect this economy from turbulence. And when the process is | :53:16. | :53:21. | |
over, we are ready to provide support to British businesses as | :53:22. | :53:25. | |
they are just to -- they adjust to life outside the EU. Because Brexit | :53:26. | :53:30. | |
does mean Brexit and we are going to make a success of it. | :53:31. | :53:39. | |
In the meantime, I can offer some additional certainty to British | :53:40. | :53:46. | |
business and other organisations bidding to receive EU funding while | :53:47. | :53:51. | |
we are still a member. I've already guaranteed the funding for projects | :53:52. | :53:54. | |
signed prior to this year's Autumn Statement. Today, I can go further. | :53:55. | :54:01. | |
The Treasury will offer a guarantee to bidders whose projects meet UK | :54:02. | :54:06. | |
priorities and value for money criteria, that if they secure | :54:07. | :54:11. | |
multiyear EU funding before we exit, we will guarantee those payments | :54:12. | :54:15. | |
after Britain has left the EU, protecting British jobs and | :54:16. | :54:17. | |
businesses after Brexit. APPLAUSE. | :54:18. | :54:28. | |
As Conservatives, we know, of course, that no-one owes us a | :54:29. | :54:35. | |
living. But a country has to live within its means. A fundamental part | :54:36. | :54:40. | |
of maintaining our global competitiveness is getting our | :54:41. | :54:46. | |
public finances back in order. We should of course be proud of our | :54:47. | :54:50. | |
achievements in fiscal consolidation, but the work we began | :54:51. | :54:57. | |
in 2010 is not finished. The deficit remains unsustainable. And the | :54:58. | :55:02. | |
decision to leave the EU has introduced new fiscal uncertainty. | :55:03. | :55:08. | |
Last year, the Government borrowed ?1 in every ?10 we spent. And piling | :55:09. | :55:15. | |
up debt for our children and our grandchildren is not only | :55:16. | :55:22. | |
unsustainable, it's unfair. And more, it's downright unconservative. | :55:23. | :55:27. | |
The British people elected us on a promise to restore fiscal discipline | :55:28. | :55:30. | |
and that is exactly what we are going to do. But we will do it in a | :55:31. | :55:37. | |
pragmatic way, in a way that reflects the new circumstances we | :55:38. | :55:40. | |
face. The fiscal policies that George Osborne set out were the | :55:41. | :55:45. | |
right ones for that time. But when times change, we must change with | :55:46. | :55:48. | |
them. So we will no longer target a | :55:49. | :55:52. | |
surplus at the end of this Parliament. | :55:53. | :55:58. | |
But make no mistake, the task of fiscal consolidation must continue. | :55:59. | :56:06. | |
It must happen within the context of a clear, credible fiscal framework | :56:07. | :56:10. | |
that will control today's expenditure, deliver value for money | :56:11. | :56:12. | |
and get Britain back living within our mens. | :56:13. | :56:18. | |
At the Autumn Statement in November, I will set our our plan to deliver | :56:19. | :56:24. | |
long-term fiscal sustainability while responding to the consequences | :56:25. | :56:29. | |
of short-term uncertainty and recognising the need for investment | :56:30. | :56:34. | |
to build an economy that works for everyone, a new plan for the new | :56:35. | :56:40. | |
circumstances Britain faces. A Conservative Government | :56:41. | :56:45. | |
demonstrating the flexibility, the common-sense and pragmatism that's | :56:46. | :56:49. | |
made our party the most successful political party in British history. | :56:50. | :57:02. | |
APPLAUSE. Now, contrast this balanced | :57:03. | :57:06. | |
responsible approach with the shambles of Labour in Liverpool last | :57:07. | :57:09. | |
week. In denial about their record in | :57:10. | :57:15. | |
office, deluded about the state of the public finances today, not once | :57:16. | :57:20. | |
did Jeremy Corbyn apologise for the mess that Labour left behind. | :57:21. | :57:24. | |
On the contrary, his Shadow secretary says their mistake was not | :57:25. | :57:29. | |
to have spent more. If you think their past record is bad, let's look | :57:30. | :57:34. | |
at their plans for Britain's future. Corbyn's big idea is to spend an | :57:35. | :57:43. | |
extra half a trillion pounds. That's 7,700 for every man, woman and child | :57:44. | :57:47. | |
in the UK. I just hope he remembers when he | :57:48. | :57:50. | |
goes to bed at night to water the magic money tree. | :57:51. | :57:55. | |
Now look, we could speculate as to how Labour would pay for a spending | :57:56. | :57:59. | |
splurge on this scale, but fortunately, we don't have to. | :58:00. | :58:05. | |
Because we have the answer. From Labour's last Shadow Chancellor, | :58:06. | :58:09. | |
Chris Lesley. This is what he said last week about how Labour would | :58:10. | :58:15. | |
fund Corbyn's plan. You'd have to double income tax, you would have to | :58:16. | :58:20. | |
double national insurance, you would have to double council tax and you | :58:21. | :58:24. | |
would have to double VAT as well. So there we have it. From the mouth | :58:25. | :58:30. | |
of one of their own. Labour condemned as totally unfit to govern | :58:31. | :58:35. | |
this country. APPLAUSE. | :58:36. | :58:46. | |
With nothing to offer the hard-working people of Britain, and, | :58:47. | :58:53. | |
as always, it would be the poorest and the most vulnerable who would | :58:54. | :58:58. | |
pay the biggest price. So, my friends, we in this party have a | :58:59. | :59:05. | |
great and solemn responsibility because we alone carry the burden of | :59:06. | :59:12. | |
ensuring that Labour can never again wreck the British economy. The | :59:13. | :59:17. | |
Conservative commitment is to build a country and an economy that works | :59:18. | :59:22. | |
for everyone, to raise our living standards and grow our national | :59:23. | :59:25. | |
wealth. Not just for today, but for future | :59:26. | :59:29. | |
generations too. We know how to do that, we | :59:30. | :59:33. | |
Conservatives, we have proved it time and time again. | :59:34. | :59:39. | |
Cleaning up Labour's mess. We'll do it by making the British | :59:40. | :59:44. | |
economy the most outward looking, most dynamic, most competitive | :59:45. | :59:48. | |
high-wage, high-skilled low-tax economy in the world. | :59:49. | :59:53. | |
We do it by making sure that after our EI exit, we continue to attract | :59:54. | :59:57. | |
the brightest and the best, the highest skilled and the most dynamic | :59:58. | :00:02. | |
entrepreneurs, scientists, engineers and managers from around the world, | :00:03. | :00:07. | |
building a strong and vibrant economy as the bedrock of our strong | :00:08. | :00:13. | |
and vibrant society. A Conservative vision of the future of Britain. And | :00:14. | :00:19. | |
I'll tell you this, it's a million miles away from the la-la land | :00:20. | :00:23. | |
Labour was describing in Liverpool last week. | :00:24. | :00:27. | |
To deliver that strong economy requires long-term sustainable | :00:28. | :00:35. | |
growth. And long-term sustainable growth requires us to raise the | :00:36. | :00:40. | |
national productivity. Before you switch off, I know productivity | :00:41. | :00:44. | |
doesn't necessarily set political pulses racing but bear with me while | :00:45. | :00:49. | |
I try to convince you that it should. How about this? You probably | :00:50. | :00:54. | |
know that the national productivity is lower than that of the United | :00:55. | :00:58. | |
States and Germany, and maybe you even feel resigned to that fact. But | :00:59. | :01:05. | |
did you know that it is lower than France and Italy, as well. Had you | :01:06. | :01:10. | |
made the connection about what that means in the real world, because | :01:11. | :01:15. | |
what it means is that millions of British workers are working longer | :01:16. | :01:19. | |
hours for lower pay than their counterparts in Europe and the | :01:20. | :01:23. | |
United States and that has to change if we are going to build an economy | :01:24. | :01:28. | |
that works for everyone. If we raised our productivity by just 1%, | :01:29. | :01:39. | |
every year, within a decade we would add ?250 billion to the size of our | :01:40. | :01:44. | |
economy, ?9,000 for every household in Britain. Productivity should set | :01:45. | :01:54. | |
political pulses racing. It is a decades-old problems swept under the | :01:55. | :01:59. | |
carpet for too long. But under this government we are going to put this | :02:00. | :02:02. | |
in the spotlight, right at the forefront of our policy agenda and | :02:03. | :02:06. | |
at the heart of our industrial strategy. We know where to start. | :02:07. | :02:13. | |
Our productivity performance in this country is grossly uneven. Still too | :02:14. | :02:18. | |
reliant on a few key sectors and still too focused on London and the | :02:19. | :02:24. | |
south-east. The good news is, we know how to do productivity, parts | :02:25. | :02:28. | |
of London have the highest productivity in Europe. The bad | :02:29. | :02:35. | |
news, the productivity gap between the capital and the second, third | :02:36. | :02:39. | |
and fourth cities is greater than in any other major economy in the | :02:40. | :02:46. | |
world. And closing that gap will be key to Britain's future outside the | :02:47. | :02:50. | |
EU. That is why we are doing regional devolution deals and why | :02:51. | :02:55. | |
tackling those regional differences will be one of the key drivers for | :02:56. | :02:59. | |
the industrial strategy that Greg Clark is developing now. And there | :03:00. | :03:06. | |
is the skills challenge, we've made huge progress over the last six | :03:07. | :03:10. | |
years, how many people in this room ten years ago would have believed | :03:11. | :03:18. | |
that in every year since 2014, maths would be the most popular A-level | :03:19. | :03:21. | |
subject in English schools? But it was. That is a tribute to | :03:22. | :03:27. | |
Conservative education reforms. APPLAUSE | :03:28. | :03:36. | |
Despite that progress, there is a huge gap between our skills base and | :03:37. | :03:44. | |
that of our key competitors. It is holding people back from achieving | :03:45. | :03:48. | |
their full potential and it is holding our nation back in the | :03:49. | :03:54. | |
global race. And there's more. Our stock of public infrastructure bang | :03:55. | :04:01. | |
which is near the bottom of the developed countries league table | :04:02. | :04:06. | |
after decades of underinvestment -- languishes near the bottom. All of | :04:07. | :04:12. | |
this must change to build an economy which works for everyone. We need to | :04:13. | :04:18. | |
close that gap with careful targeted public investment in high-value | :04:19. | :04:24. | |
infrastructure and encouragement of more private business investment in | :04:25. | :04:28. | |
British enterprises. If we are going to see economic growth distributed | :04:29. | :04:32. | |
more evenly across the regions and sectors of our economy, and more | :04:33. | :04:37. | |
fairly between the generations, there's another big challenge that | :04:38. | :04:42. | |
needs to be tackled. The on affordability of housing. Because | :04:43. | :04:48. | |
despite the action we have taken, fewer and fewer young people are | :04:49. | :04:52. | |
able to afford to get their foot on the first rung of the housing ladder | :04:53. | :04:58. | |
and buy their own home. Quite simply we are not building enough new | :04:59. | :05:01. | |
homes. This is a long-term challenge. But there are short-term | :05:02. | :05:07. | |
measures we can take and the package that Sajid Javid announced earlier, | :05:08. | :05:12. | |
?3 billion home-builders fund and the 2 billion is proud of new | :05:13. | :05:18. | |
investment for construction on public land is a clear demonstration | :05:19. | :05:20. | |
of this government's determination to tackle this challenge using | :05:21. | :05:26. | |
everything at our disposal because making housing more affordable will | :05:27. | :05:32. | |
be a vital part of building a country that works for everyone. And | :05:33. | :05:37. | |
this government is determined that the dream of home ownership should | :05:38. | :05:45. | |
be for the many and not for the few. Making sure that we have world-class | :05:46. | :05:49. | |
infrastructure is vital to maintaining our competitiveness but | :05:50. | :05:55. | |
it is a very long-term agenda. One that can be and often has been | :05:56. | :05:59. | |
knocked off course by short-term political considerations. That is | :06:00. | :06:04. | |
why we announce the national infrastructure commission, to define | :06:05. | :06:09. | |
independently the nation's long-term infrastructure needs and to | :06:10. | :06:13. | |
prioritise and plan and to test value for money and to make sure | :06:14. | :06:17. | |
that every penny spent on infrastructure is properly targeted | :06:18. | :06:25. | |
to deliver maximum benefit. And today I recommit to putting the | :06:26. | :06:29. | |
commission at the very heart of our plans to renew and expand Britain's | :06:30. | :06:33. | |
infrastructure, making sure that it is long-term economics and not | :06:34. | :06:39. | |
short-term politics, that drives Britain's vital infrastructure | :06:40. | :06:44. | |
investment. Part of Britain's productivity transformation will, | :06:45. | :06:52. | |
from innovation. -- will come from. The new technologies which are right | :06:53. | :06:59. | |
now making their way from university labs and facilities into early stage | :07:00. | :07:01. | |
production, offer Britain a much bigger prize than incremental | :07:02. | :07:07. | |
productivity improvements. Because at the cutting edge of many of these | :07:08. | :07:13. | |
new technologies UK is becoming a world leader once again. Not just in | :07:14. | :07:18. | |
the science but in the application of it. And in the innovation that | :07:19. | :07:25. | |
follows. Over the last few years unnoticed by most of us, | :07:26. | :07:29. | |
entrepreneurs and scientists from home and abroad have been turning | :07:30. | :07:32. | |
Britain into a hub of tech innovation. Global businesses have | :07:33. | :07:38. | |
followed, hungry for the inventions and innovations they are generating. | :07:39. | :07:43. | |
Developing technologies that will change fundamentally the way we work | :07:44. | :07:50. | |
and the way we live. Driverless cars, the internet of things, | :07:51. | :07:55. | |
artificial intelligence, 3-D printing, Virtual reality, advanced | :07:56. | :08:01. | |
robotics, I will be honest, I had no idea until a few weeks ago just how | :08:02. | :08:07. | |
much I don't know. And I had even less idea how much I still wouldn't | :08:08. | :08:13. | |
be able to understand even when clever people had explained it to | :08:14. | :08:17. | |
me, but the truth is, this is the future, our future and our | :08:18. | :08:23. | |
children's future. A whole new world that really would have sounded like | :08:24. | :08:26. | |
science-fiction just a few years ago, but is now a reality taking | :08:27. | :08:33. | |
shape in laboratories and incubators and factories across Britain, there | :08:34. | :08:38. | |
is a once in a generation opportunity for Britain to cement | :08:39. | :08:41. | |
its role as a leader in tech innovation. My ambition is clear, I | :08:42. | :08:49. | |
want to see what is invented here developed here, I want to see what | :08:50. | :08:53. | |
is developed here produced here, I want to see jobs and profits, and | :08:54. | :08:59. | |
yes I want to see tax receipts here in Britain. APPLAUSE | :09:00. | :09:09. | |
I want to see the fruit of British genius being harvested here in | :09:10. | :09:17. | |
Britain as we move into a fourth Industrial Revolution, creating | :09:18. | :09:23. | |
jobs, wealth, and success to future proof our economy post Brexit. We | :09:24. | :09:27. | |
are well placed to do it. More competitive than ever. Up to seventh | :09:28. | :09:32. | |
place in the world league table last year, from tenth the year before. We | :09:33. | :09:38. | |
have world leading universities and research institutes, a trusted legal | :09:39. | :09:43. | |
system and an advantageous time zone, the English-language, our | :09:44. | :09:48. | |
secret and unfair advantage. And vibrant markets. A 20% we have one | :09:49. | :09:53. | |
of the world's most competitive corporation tax rates and as it | :09:54. | :10:00. | |
falls to 17% by the end of this Parliament it will be more | :10:01. | :10:05. | |
attractive still. Of course this explosion of creativity and | :10:06. | :10:07. | |
innovation that I've spoken about hasn't happened solely or even | :10:08. | :10:11. | |
mainly because of government policy but it could easily be snuffed out | :10:12. | :10:19. | |
by the wrong government policy. We must carefully maintained the | :10:20. | :10:21. | |
conditions that have brought this activity to Britain in the first | :10:22. | :10:26. | |
place. Including the ability to attract the brightest and best to | :10:27. | :10:30. | |
work here in our high-tech industries. And where we see that | :10:31. | :10:36. | |
there are government interventions that work we should be prepared to | :10:37. | :10:42. | |
make them, so today I can announce another ?220 million of support to | :10:43. | :10:47. | |
tech innovation spread across two initiatives. ?100 million to extend | :10:48. | :10:57. | |
the biomedical fund which takes revolutionary science from the lab | :10:58. | :11:01. | |
and delivers it to health care interventions and a further ?120 | :11:02. | :11:06. | |
billion to nurture the tech transfer offices which put universities and | :11:07. | :11:10. | |
entrepreneurs together to get the science out of the lab and into the | :11:11. | :11:16. | |
factory, that is a Conservative government investing in Britain's | :11:17. | :11:16. | |
future. I've made my argument that we will | :11:17. | :11:35. | |
not overcome Britain's productivity challenge unless we overcome the gap | :11:36. | :11:42. | |
between cities and regions, but this is about politics, as well, because | :11:43. | :11:47. | |
one of the key messages of the referendum campaign was that large | :11:48. | :11:50. | |
parts of our country feel left behind. They see the country getting | :11:51. | :11:55. | |
richer but they don't feel part of that success. A dangerous divide is | :11:56. | :12:01. | |
opening up between those who believe they have a stake in the economy and | :12:02. | :12:07. | |
those who don't. It is one of the central missions of this government | :12:08. | :12:12. | |
to tackle that divide, to see the benefits of growth provided more | :12:13. | :12:18. | |
equally across the regions and generations, and a key part of this | :12:19. | :12:22. | |
agenda is harnessing the economic power of our cities. The Northern | :12:23. | :12:28. | |
Powerhouse project takes a visionary approach, linking the great cities | :12:29. | :12:32. | |
of the North into a coherent economic entity, an interconnected | :12:33. | :12:42. | |
region that live as growth by making it easier and cheaper for and | :12:43. | :12:44. | |
individuals to move goods come people and ideas. I want to pledge | :12:45. | :12:52. | |
to you today that the Treasury under my leadership will continue to drive | :12:53. | :12:55. | |
the Northern Powerhouse project, working in partnership with local | :12:56. | :13:01. | |
leaders to see it deliver its potential for people in the North. | :13:02. | :13:06. | |
But I also want to tell you that our ambition is not limited to the | :13:07. | :13:11. | |
Northern Powerhouse. We want to create the conditions for success in | :13:12. | :13:14. | |
the north, the South, and everywhere in between. There is nowhere more | :13:15. | :13:19. | |
ripe to benefit from a similar approach than the Midlands. The | :13:20. | :13:26. | |
Midlands engine with its hub in Birmingham powers 11.7 million lives | :13:27. | :13:32. | |
generates ?220 billion for our economy and produces 18% of UK goods | :13:33. | :13:39. | |
exports, more than a fifth of our total manufacturing output. In this | :13:40. | :13:44. | |
great region there are 320,000 more people in work than there were in | :13:45. | :13:50. | |
2010. But both productivity and economic growth have lagged behind | :13:51. | :13:56. | |
the UK average. We have developed our long-term economic plan for the | :13:57. | :14:01. | |
Midlands and is already delivering. But we can and we will do more. We | :14:02. | :14:06. | |
are working with the West Midlands combined authority on a second | :14:07. | :14:09. | |
devolution deal to include new powers on transport, criminal | :14:10. | :14:15. | |
justice, data, planning and skills. With Andy Street, our fantastic | :14:16. | :14:19. | |
mayoral candidate for the West Midlands, now in place, a great | :14:20. | :14:25. | |
future is within the region's rasp, at the very released I can promise | :14:26. | :14:29. | |
you this, this region will never be knowingly undersold -- grasp. | :14:30. | :14:32. | |
APPLAUSE The Northern Powerhouse, the | :14:33. | :14:47. | |
Midlands engine, two great projects that can be emulated across written. | :14:48. | :14:53. | |
Indeed, I suspect the limiting factor might only be our ability to | :14:54. | :14:57. | |
think of snappy titles for new regional projects -- across Britain. | :14:58. | :15:02. | |
But be assured we have passed a tipping point in devolution in this | :15:03. | :15:08. | |
country, a decisive and irreversible shift in the economic and political | :15:09. | :15:12. | |
power balance. Britain's economy will be the better and the bigger | :15:13. | :15:17. | |
for it. Conference, the British people have made a bold decision, | :15:18. | :15:25. | |
and our party trusted them with the nation's future in a referendum. And | :15:26. | :15:31. | |
now they trust us to deliver on their decision. We will not let them | :15:32. | :15:38. | |
down. We are going to leave the European Union to repatriate our | :15:39. | :15:42. | |
laws, to assert the supremacy of our courts, to control our borders, but | :15:43. | :15:47. | |
we are not going to turn our backs on the nations of Europe. Let us | :15:48. | :15:52. | |
resolve that as we leave their union, we will remain the best of | :15:53. | :15:58. | |
neighbours but the closest of trade associates and the strongest of | :15:59. | :16:02. | |
security partners. But our economic future must not be defined by Brexit | :16:03. | :16:09. | |
alone. So as we tread that path, to becoming an independent sovereign | :16:10. | :16:15. | |
country once again, and forge a new and exciting role for our nation in | :16:16. | :16:23. | |
the world let us resolve to tackle the challenges at home with renewed | :16:24. | :16:27. | |
vigour, dealing with the deficit, raising our productivity, the | :16:28. | :16:31. | |
balancing our economy and rebuilding our infrastructure. And making sure | :16:32. | :16:38. | |
that everyone in every part of our country can contribute and benefit | :16:39. | :16:40. | |
from the growth that follows. Standing tall, attracting the best | :16:41. | :16:56. | |
to deliver the vibrant successful economy that will mean when future | :16:57. | :17:00. | |
generations look back on our decision in 2016, they'll see, not | :17:01. | :17:05. | |
the end of an era, but the beginning of a new age. Not a country turning | :17:06. | :17:15. | |
inward but a nation reaching out, decisively, confidently to grasp new | :17:16. | :17:21. | |
opportunities, a bigger, better, greater Britain, truly a country | :17:22. | :17:28. | |
that works for everyone. Thank you. APPLAUSE. | :17:29. | :17:34. | |
STUDIO: The Chancellor Philip Hammond finishes his first key note | :17:35. | :17:38. | |
address to the Tory Party Conference as Chancellor. It was a pretty long | :17:39. | :17:44. | |
speech, short on anything new or any new announcements. Maybe he's saving | :17:45. | :17:48. | |
them all up for the Autumn Statement on November 23rd. He boasted about | :17:49. | :17:53. | |
the recovery that had occurred under this Government. He said the | :17:54. | :17:57. | |
Conservatives were the true party of the British working people. He said | :17:58. | :18:01. | |
a divide was opening up between those who were doing well out of the | :18:02. | :18:05. | |
economy and those who weren't. It remains to be soon what is going to | :18:06. | :18:09. | |
be done about that. He had a swipe at Ed Balls who, of course, is now | :18:10. | :18:13. | |
more famous as a dancer than a Shadow Chancellor. He had a few | :18:14. | :18:18. | |
things to say about fiscal policy. He confirmed what we already know, | :18:19. | :18:23. | |
that they are no longer aiming for a surplus in the national budget by | :18:24. | :18:27. | |
2020. Indeed, it could be that they'll drop the very idea of aiming | :18:28. | :18:33. | |
for a surplus, but he did talk about fiscal sustainability which suggests | :18:34. | :18:37. | |
he still hopes that the deficit over time will continue to come down. I | :18:38. | :18:42. | |
guess it means the deficit never came down anything as quickly as Mr | :18:43. | :18:45. | |
Osborne first told us it would in 2010. He then moved to a new more | :18:46. | :18:52. | |
slower reduction for 2015 to 2020, now Mr Hammond I think is probably | :18:53. | :18:55. | |
moving to stage three of deficit reduction which means it will be | :18:56. | :19:00. | |
even slower than stage two under Mr Osborne. He did say that he was | :19:01. | :19:05. | |
going to look to invest in various areas as well. He's already | :19:06. | :19:08. | |
announced something on housing, which don't know yet what else, but | :19:09. | :19:13. | |
he did say we had to do that. He spent some time on productivity and | :19:14. | :19:17. | |
I suppose we'll think with an increase investment may address that | :19:18. | :19:26. | |
poll. Paul Johnson from the Institute for Fiscal Studies, have I | :19:27. | :19:30. | |
missed anything out? Nothing terribly new. We knew he wasn't | :19:31. | :19:36. | |
going to aim for the surplus in 2020 and he's given us no sense of what | :19:37. | :19:40. | |
the new fiscal rule will be. That doesn't surprise me, it will come in | :19:41. | :19:44. | |
the Autumn Statement in November. He's dealing with uncertainty. He | :19:45. | :19:49. | |
focussed on productivity, it's what underlies wage growth, he gave us | :19:50. | :19:54. | |
some sums there, saying if you increase productivity 1% a year, you | :19:55. | :19:57. | |
get hundreds of billions after ten years, absolutely true, the problem | :19:58. | :20:01. | |
of course is how do you deliver that productivity. How does Government | :20:02. | :20:05. | |
deliver it too? How indeed. He was right about some things. It does | :20:06. | :20:10. | |
depend on skills, infrastructure and building and some things Governments | :20:11. | :20:12. | |
have decided notlet to do in the past. We could have had a decision | :20:13. | :20:16. | |
about a runway a lot quicker which would have been good for | :20:17. | :20:19. | |
productivity. You can build extra roads but people don't like them. | :20:20. | :20:23. | |
You can build extra houses on green fields but people don't like them. | :20:24. | :20:27. | |
All these are good for productivity. So there are big decisions to take | :20:28. | :20:30. | |
there. He said something interesting. He did focus and | :20:31. | :20:35. | |
re-affirm George Osborne's commitment to devolution and to | :20:36. | :20:40. | |
giving additional powers to local authorities and to regions. I think | :20:41. | :20:44. | |
that was quite for me a big part of what he said. There is no, it would | :20:45. | :20:49. | |
seem, going back from what I think we'll see over time as quite a big | :20:50. | :20:52. | |
change in the way we run our economy and politics. Maybe if he really | :20:53. | :20:55. | |
believeded in devolution he'd move the Treasury to Manchester? ! He | :20:56. | :20:59. | |
would but... Then you would have a whole different view of the world. | :21:00. | :21:03. | |
Parliament seems to be moving out of its building soon, they could move | :21:04. | :21:09. | |
the whole that bang up there! In the broad sweep of things, we don't know | :21:10. | :21:17. | |
how much he'll slow down, he's going to slow down the pace of deficit | :21:18. | :21:25. | |
reduction? That is my guess. Let's remember, if the economy grows a bit | :21:26. | :21:30. | |
less quickly than was hoped in March, even to he follows through | :21:31. | :21:32. | |
exactly with George Osborne's spending cuts and so on on, we still | :21:33. | :21:36. | |
won't get to a budget southern plus, so simply saying we are not going to | :21:37. | :21:39. | |
get there doesn't tell us anything about the scale of any other change. | :21:40. | :21:43. | |
There's clearly some indication of what looked like some really quite | :21:44. | :21:46. | |
modest increases in spending on house building and so on which might | :21:47. | :21:49. | |
help both in the short run and the long run, but I think we are going | :21:50. | :21:55. | |
toff to wait until the Autumn Statement on November 20rd to find | :21:56. | :22:00. | |
out more detail -- 23rd November. If I were him, I would still be waiting | :22:01. | :22:03. | |
for more news on the economy over the next year to 18 months. To see | :22:04. | :22:09. | |
which way it's going? Yes. Exactly. We don't know the course of the | :22:10. | :22:13. | |
economy yet. We could forecast it going up and down and changing all | :22:14. | :22:17. | |
the time. It's a little unfair to have a crack at Ed Balls, is it not, | :22:18. | :22:21. | |
when his overall fiscal policy now sounds a little like Ed Balls? Well, | :22:22. | :22:27. | |
the last Labour manifesto suggested aiming for what essentially would be | :22:28. | :22:31. | |
a ?20 billion or ?30 billion deficit by the end of the Parliament because | :22:32. | :22:35. | |
they would have been happy to borrow to invest. The Chancellor didn't say | :22:36. | :22:39. | |
that is what he was aiming for, but he's certainly pushing in that kind | :22:40. | :22:44. | |
of direction. Thanks for being with us. Pf pf | :22:45. | :22:50. | |
Yesterday Pf pf was Brexit day here at Conference. | :22:51. | :22:53. | |
We learned of course that Article 50 will be triggered before March next | :22:54. | :22:57. | |
year, starting the formal two-year process of negotiations. | :22:58. | :23:00. | |
And there'll be a vote in Parliament next spring confirming that Britain | :23:01. | :23:05. | |
will leave at the end of that process, the Great Repeal Bill | :23:06. | :23:08. | |
Adam was listening to the speeches and trying to get some | :23:09. | :23:15. | |
answers from the ministers in charge of Brexit. | :23:16. | :23:22. | |
Here is our Adam. APPLAUSE. | :23:23. | :23:29. | |
. A speech from the Prime Minister on a Sunday at Tory conference! Most | :23:30. | :23:33. | |
unusual. Must be something big like when she'll start the legal process | :23:34. | :23:38. | |
of leaving the EU. Let me be absolutely clear. There'll | :23:39. | :23:42. | |
be no unnecessary delays in invoking Article 50. We will invoke it when | :23:43. | :23:46. | |
we are ready and we will be ready soon. | :23:47. | :23:50. | |
We will invoke Article 50 no later than the end of March next year. | :23:51. | :23:56. | |
APPLAUSE. And Brexit means Brexit which means | :23:57. | :24:00. | |
what exactly? We voted to leave the European Union | :24:01. | :24:04. | |
and become a fully independent sovereign country. We will do what | :24:05. | :24:09. | |
independent sovereign countries do. We will decide for ourselves how we | :24:10. | :24:14. | |
control immigration, and we'll be free to pass our own laws. But we | :24:15. | :24:20. | |
will seek the best deal possible as we negotiate a new agreement with | :24:21. | :24:22. | |
the European Union. APPLAUSE. | :24:23. | :24:27. | |
Then there was the big we veal, the Great Repeal Bill. We'll soon put | :24:28. | :24:33. | |
before Parliament a Great Repeal Bill which will remove from the | :24:34. | :24:39. | |
statute bobbing once and for all the European Communities Act. | :24:40. | :24:48. | |
This historic Bill which will be included in the next Queen's Speech | :24:49. | :24:52. | |
will mean the 1972 Act, the legislation that gives direct effect | :24:53. | :24:57. | |
to all EU law in Britain will no longer apply from the date upon | :24:58. | :25:01. | |
which we formally leave the European Union. And its effect will be clear. | :25:02. | :25:06. | |
What about the three Brexit ears, the trio of Government ministers who | :25:07. | :25:10. | |
had to draw up the detailed plans for all of this? David Davis, the | :25:11. | :25:15. | |
Brexit secretary, Liam Fox the international trade secretary and | :25:16. | :25:18. | |
Boris Johnson, the Foreign Secretary. Rumour is they have been | :25:19. | :25:21. | |
told to bite their tongues and not talk to the media much this week. | :25:22. | :25:26. | |
We'll see. Dr Fox, are you keep ago | :25:27. | :25:30. | |
low-profile, have you been told to? Does this look like a low-profile to | :25:31. | :25:35. | |
you? Are you going to come on the programme? Not at the moment. Are | :25:36. | :25:39. | |
you allowed to do interviews. People are saying you have been sat on and | :25:40. | :25:42. | |
you are not allowed to talk to the media? Who, me? Quite fast there, | :25:43. | :25:49. | |
David Davis! No proper interview bus two out of the three did give | :25:50. | :25:54. | |
speeches as part of Brexit Sunday. I know some people suggest we should | :25:55. | :25:59. | |
ignore the rules, tear up the treaties, I say that's not how | :26:00. | :26:02. | |
Britain behaves. What kind of message would that send | :26:03. | :26:07. | |
to the rest of the world? If we want to be treated with good will, we | :26:08. | :26:14. | |
must act with good will. I think that vote on June 23rd, I | :26:15. | :26:21. | |
think that was a vote for economic and political freedom and freedom | :26:22. | :26:25. | |
for this country. APPLAUSE. | :26:26. | :26:30. | |
And, at a packed fringe event, Liam Fox revealed he shed a tear on | :26:31. | :26:33. | |
referendum night when he realised his side had won. | :26:34. | :26:38. | |
That was Brexit Sunday, the Tories just hope this conference doesn't | :26:39. | :26:42. | |
turn into Brexit Monday, Brexit Tuesday and Brexit Wednesday too. | :26:43. | :26:47. | |
Our Adam reporting there. We are joined by our guests now. | :26:48. | :27:05. | |
Dominic Grieve, we know when Article 50 will be triggered and we know the | :27:06. | :27:10. | |
1972 Act, everything in that will be put on to the British stat due book. | :27:11. | :27:14. | |
Are you happy with that approach? Putting the 72 Act on to the statute | :27:15. | :27:20. | |
book, it's indispensable if we are leaving but it doesn't answer the | :27:21. | :27:24. | |
question for business about what the relationship with the EU from | :27:25. | :27:28. | |
outside will be thereafter. Bear in mind that the moment we put it in | :27:29. | :27:33. | |
the statute book, after we leave, divergence will start to occur | :27:34. | :27:37. | |
immediately. I think the key issue for business is, what will be the | :27:38. | :27:41. | |
framework of our relations with the EU from outside of it which will | :27:42. | :27:47. | |
enable them to carry on trading. So in a sense, the great Repeal Act is | :27:48. | :27:52. | |
I think important, but it's not the central part of Brexit. When do we | :27:53. | :27:59. | |
get to know, Bernard Jenkin, even a rough idea of what our relationship | :28:00. | :28:03. | |
will be with the single market once we've left? If we have talks and | :28:04. | :28:15. | |
reach constructive agreement, we'll tidy up all the things like | :28:16. | :28:22. | |
agriculture, fishing data and mobile telephones and civil aviation, but | :28:23. | :28:27. | |
hope will 'll also be an interim agreement to keep the tariffs at | :28:28. | :28:33. | |
zero, to keep the services sector open on both sides, so that we have | :28:34. | :28:37. | |
to time to develop a comprehensive economic partnership over a much | :28:38. | :28:42. | |
longer period. The European Union's problem is two fold. First of all, | :28:43. | :28:47. | |
they tend to take a very long time to develop trading relationships. I | :28:48. | :28:51. | |
mean, how long has TTIP been doing and how long has it taken to do the | :28:52. | :28:58. | |
that nayedian deal, six years, a very long time -- Canadian deal. It | :28:59. | :29:02. | |
requires Norwich Union any morety and ratification by all member | :29:03. | :29:18. | |
states. We can't -- unanimity. What do you say? I don't disagree about | :29:19. | :29:23. | |
the sort of frustrations that we may encounter in the course of | :29:24. | :29:27. | |
negotiating Brexit. But the bottom line is that we are in meshed | :29:28. | :29:33. | |
economically with our European partners -- enmeshed. Unless we want | :29:34. | :29:40. | |
a chaotic Brexit at the end of it, meaning we refer to a WTO | :29:41. | :29:45. | |
membership, we are going to have to build structures which will fetter | :29:46. | :29:49. | |
us to some extent. It doesn't matter how you do it that,'s how | :29:50. | :29:51. | |
international relations are conducted. I always worry that | :29:52. | :29:56. | |
there's an element of fantasy about Brexit, but somehow this wonderful | :29:57. | :30:00. | |
moment comes, you have the Great Repeal Bill, the day comes when we | :30:01. | :30:05. | |
leave and suddenly there is a brave new world, there isn't. It's a world | :30:06. | :30:09. | |
of complex, commercial relationships underpinned by new treaties, just as | :30:10. | :30:16. | |
we had old treaties, and whilst it's true the new treaties may not be | :30:17. | :30:19. | |
Raing litted bay the European Court of Justice so we escape some of the | :30:20. | :30:24. | |
mechanisms of the EU, actually it will be replaced by new apparatus, | :30:25. | :30:28. | |
just as the international relations commercially with other states | :30:29. | :30:30. | |
outied the EU is regulated at present. He doesn't seem to think | :30:31. | :30:34. | |
it's worth a candle in other words? He was on the other side of the | :30:35. | :30:39. | |
debate. The point is that we could have a much simpler and more | :30:40. | :30:42. | |
straightforward relationship. The model might be the kind of | :30:43. | :30:46. | |
relationship that Canada has with the United States. The United States | :30:47. | :30:50. | |
Supreme Court doesn't make laws in Canada, the congress doesn't make | :30:51. | :30:53. | |
laws in can dasmt It's a Free Trade Agreement. Is that what you would | :30:54. | :30:56. | |
like? Yes, that is what we want. What is wrong with that? Nothing. | :30:57. | :31:01. | |
But if you look at the reality of the Canadian US Free Trade Agreement | :31:02. | :31:06. | |
because of the preponderance of economic power on one side of that | :31:07. | :31:10. | |
equation, it's one which ultimately gets driven by the larger partner. | :31:11. | :31:15. | |
You can't escape that. There is no pressure in Canada to come out. If | :31:16. | :31:21. | |
anything, the pressure is in America to do it away. | :31:22. | :31:26. | |
It is vital to their national interests, but when we voted to | :31:27. | :31:33. | |
leave, I myself have never quite seen it as independent data -- | :31:34. | :31:38. | |
Independence Day, because it seems to me we live in an independent | :31:39. | :31:44. | |
world, and what some people aspire to with Brexit is unlikely to be | :31:45. | :31:47. | |
realised and so we have got the hard-headed and pragmatic about what | :31:48. | :31:51. | |
we want to achieve and how we achieve it. We Road need to submit | :31:52. | :31:59. | |
to the European court of justice as we do at the moment, that will give | :32:00. | :32:05. | |
us our independence -- we won't need to submit. We will need to decide | :32:06. | :32:13. | |
for ourselves. United Kingdom imports far more from the Europeans | :32:14. | :32:19. | |
than we export and so they have a huge vested interest. Yes, we had | :32:20. | :32:23. | |
that in the campaign, but from everything you say, you accept that | :32:24. | :32:31. | |
if you don't want to be... You want to end freedom of movement. You are | :32:32. | :32:38. | |
not going to be a member of the single market. That's impossible | :32:39. | :32:45. | |
now? Yes, no doubt about it. You replace it with a free trade | :32:46. | :32:49. | |
agreement? Yes, that might take some time. The interim arrangement might | :32:50. | :32:54. | |
not be for me agreed, we might just say, until we have a agreement we | :32:55. | :32:58. | |
will keep our tariffs at zero and keep our borders open for such and | :32:59. | :33:06. | |
such. If we said we are open, you can carry on trading with us and | :33:07. | :33:11. | |
selling your stuff tariff free, but then they say, no, we are going to | :33:12. | :33:17. | |
put up tariffs, what is the European Union going to look like? It will | :33:18. | :33:34. | |
destroy the British kind as to. -- car industry. It is perfectly | :33:35. | :33:41. | |
reasonable that we are offsetting, if we are raising that revenue, we | :33:42. | :33:49. | |
are spending on making this a very attractive country for investment. | :33:50. | :33:55. | |
Subsidies? But subsidies. Increasing training grants, grants for research | :33:56. | :34:00. | |
and element, many positive things we can do within the state aid rules. | :34:01. | :34:05. | |
Our biggest individual export country is the United States, and we | :34:06. | :34:07. | |
don't have a free-trade agreement with them. Our rules are already | :34:08. | :34:15. | |
very enmeshed with Europe, could we not move quite quickly if there was | :34:16. | :34:19. | |
goodwill on both sides to do a free-trade agreement? That is | :34:20. | :34:23. | |
possible, and I would be very much in favour of trying to achieve it, | :34:24. | :34:31. | |
but... You accept we can't be in the single market as a member? We could | :34:32. | :34:38. | |
be if we are prepared to accept the restraints, but I understand it | :34:39. | :34:42. | |
might be possible for us to negotiate a status for the United | :34:43. | :34:44. | |
Kingdom which is somewhat different for other countries, all those | :34:45. | :34:50. | |
things are possible. You can't be in the single market without being | :34:51. | :34:57. | |
subject to the ECJ? You would be subject to what is in effect the | :34:58. | :35:01. | |
younger brother of the ECJ and you would lose the influence in the | :35:02. | :35:08. | |
formulation of the regulations. I'm a pragmatist, but the reality of | :35:09. | :35:11. | |
trade and mutual interdependency is that you have to accept a framework | :35:12. | :35:16. | |
of rules and if you don't the question is, what will the economic | :35:17. | :35:22. | |
consequences be, and in my constituency I have companies there | :35:23. | :35:27. | |
because they have access to the single market and if they don't have | :35:28. | :35:30. | |
access to the single market they will move away. They will have | :35:31. | :35:34. | |
access, but they don't know what terms, so why should any | :35:35. | :35:39. | |
multinational at the moment, wondering where to expand next, | :35:40. | :35:44. | |
bring their foreign investment to Britain until everything you have | :35:45. | :35:48. | |
been talking about has been resolved? That is why there will be | :35:49. | :35:55. | |
pressure not so much on hard and soft, but quick, and click means | :35:56. | :35:59. | |
simple and simple means not getting involved in unanimity provisions, it | :36:00. | :36:07. | |
means offering a unilateral deal to the EU, pending a longer-term deal, | :36:08. | :36:13. | |
but it also means gives the few giving assurances to investors. We | :36:14. | :36:20. | |
could call that the make the Chancellor Philip Hammond said | :36:21. | :36:35. | |
he was hoping to break with austerity policies to an extent, | :36:36. | :36:39. | |
from his predecessor, but by how much we don't know, we have got to | :36:40. | :36:45. | |
wait for the Autumn Statement. The British people elected us on a | :36:46. | :36:49. | |
promise to restore fiscal discipline and that is exactly what we are | :36:50. | :36:53. | |
going to do. But we will do it in a pragmatic way. In a way which | :36:54. | :36:57. | |
reflects the new circumstances we face. The fiscal policies George | :36:58. | :37:02. | |
Osborne set out were the right ones for that time. But when times | :37:03. | :37:08. | |
change, we must change with them. So we will no longer target a surplus | :37:09. | :37:13. | |
at the end of this Parliament. But make no mistake the task of fiscal | :37:14. | :37:24. | |
consolidation must continue. Right. That was the Chancellor and are now | :37:25. | :37:31. | |
joined -- I'm now joined by David Gauke. The Chancellor boasted about | :37:32. | :37:35. | |
the recovery that has happened under this government, but the fact is, | :37:36. | :37:42. | |
GDP per capita has barely moved in the last six years. It is the case | :37:43. | :37:49. | |
that of the G-7 countries GDP as a whole has grown fast in the UK than | :37:50. | :37:54. | |
any other. Partly because of the amount of immigration that has taken | :37:55. | :37:58. | |
place, that you have said you will stop. If you divide the GDB by the | :37:59. | :38:04. | |
number of people in the country, compared to 2010, it has barely | :38:05. | :38:11. | |
grown at all -- GDP. We inherited a difficult set of challenges in terms | :38:12. | :38:15. | |
of the public finances and in terms of the after-shocks of the financial | :38:16. | :38:21. | |
crisis and the Eurozone crisis which had a significant impact upon the | :38:22. | :38:26. | |
us. Over that period we have seen a large creation of the number of jobs | :38:27. | :38:37. | |
and GDP growth has been significant. But not per head. We were faced with | :38:38. | :38:43. | |
problems of the year is own crisis in 2012 and the after effects of the | :38:44. | :38:48. | |
financial shocks which meant funding for businesses was very difficult -- | :38:49. | :38:53. | |
the problems of the Eurozone crisis in 2012. UK has been growing | :38:54. | :38:58. | |
strongly by any measure you want to look at. But not by GDP per head, | :38:59. | :39:04. | |
that is my point. One of the reasons is that for most of the time you | :39:05. | :39:09. | |
have been in power real wages have fallen, they have not grown, so | :39:10. | :39:14. | |
people have been overall worse off in terms of the money they have | :39:15. | :39:17. | |
raised in Germany and France, where real wages have risen. To some | :39:18. | :39:27. | |
extent, if you are making a comparison with France and Germany, | :39:28. | :39:32. | |
real wages in the context where we have seen a very substantial | :39:33. | :39:34. | |
increase in the Labour force, which has not been the case in France and | :39:35. | :39:38. | |
Germany in the same way, so there has been away in which there has | :39:39. | :39:43. | |
been a trade-off between the two. It begs the question, what do we do | :39:44. | :39:47. | |
about it? As Paul Johnson said, if you want to drive up real wages this | :39:48. | :39:55. | |
is about driving up productivity and much of the speech today from Philip | :39:56. | :39:58. | |
Hammond was about how we can improve productivity, that is a long-term | :39:59. | :40:01. | |
challenge and we have taken steps over the last six years but there is | :40:02. | :40:07. | |
more to do. So far with no impact. If you are looking at improving the | :40:08. | :40:13. | |
skills base, that is something which isn't going to be a matter which is | :40:14. | :40:20. | |
solved in three, four, five, even six years, that's a long-term | :40:21. | :40:25. | |
project. If we are looking at encouraging more investment in the | :40:26. | :40:29. | |
UK and our policies on corporation tax for example have attracted more | :40:30. | :40:32. | |
investment to the UK, but the benefits of that investment is | :40:33. | :40:34. | |
something you see over a long period of time. Because something is | :40:35. | :40:40. | |
long-term, it doesn't mean that governments should not focus on it. | :40:41. | :40:45. | |
You might expect to see glimmers of progress, but UK productivity per | :40:46. | :40:50. | |
hour has not changed since 2007. It has not moved now in nine years. One | :40:51. | :40:59. | |
of the particular factors, you have used 2007 as a base point, it is a | :41:00. | :41:07. | |
reasonable point to make. The hit of the financial crisis on our | :41:08. | :41:10. | |
productivity was very considerable and continues to be considerable. | :41:11. | :41:15. | |
The question is, how do we improve our productivity which marked the | :41:16. | :41:19. | |
focus on our infrastructure and skills and attracting investment to | :41:20. | :41:24. | |
the UK, that has got to be the way forward. But you have slashed | :41:25. | :41:33. | |
infrastructure spending. We inherited a reduction in | :41:34. | :41:37. | |
infrastructure spending. Of course. But as a bit -- centage of GDP it in | :41:38. | :41:46. | |
fact declined to little bit and compare to other countries it is | :41:47. | :41:50. | |
rather small -- but as a percentage of GDP. If you look at government | :41:51. | :41:56. | |
spending in infrastructure and along with PPP, the UK is comparator with | :41:57. | :42:00. | |
other countries, but there is more we need to do to encourage private | :42:01. | :42:03. | |
sector investment in infrastructure, but the reality is the government... | :42:04. | :42:10. | |
If you look at transport, we have a set actual increase in the roads | :42:11. | :42:13. | |
budget over the course of this Parliament, it will be increasing by | :42:14. | :42:17. | |
three times over this period, we are investing more in the railways, for | :42:18. | :42:23. | |
any time since Victorian times, and so we are increasing expenditure | :42:24. | :42:28. | |
especially in that high-value infrastructure where there is good | :42:29. | :42:32. | |
economic return. What the Chancellor made reference to today, his | :42:33. | :42:36. | |
enthusiasm to look at ways in which we can do that consistent with a | :42:37. | :42:40. | |
commitment to getting the public finances under control. How can you | :42:41. | :42:45. | |
be the self-styled workers party win 6 million working people in this | :42:46. | :42:48. | |
country are less than the living wage? We are in a position where we | :42:49. | :42:54. | |
have created a lot of jobs in this country and we have brought in the | :42:55. | :42:57. | |
national living wage and that is providing a significant pay rise to | :42:58. | :43:05. | |
millions of people. We have cut taxes for the low paid and taken | :43:06. | :43:10. | |
millions out of income tax. 6 million people earning less than the | :43:11. | :43:15. | |
living wage, defined as ?9 15 in London and ?7 85 elsewhere in the | :43:16. | :43:22. | |
UK. Not much money for people at this conference, but 6 million | :43:23. | :43:26. | |
people earn less than that. That can't be right for a self-styled | :43:27. | :43:31. | |
workers party. What you do about it? That is your job. I will answer it. | :43:32. | :43:37. | |
You make sure those people pay less in tax and you make sure you have a | :43:38. | :43:44. | |
higher national living wage then you would otherwise do, but I come back | :43:45. | :43:50. | |
to this point, if we want to have a high wage, high skill economy, we | :43:51. | :43:54. | |
have got to make sure we have the environment to improve our skills | :43:55. | :43:59. | |
and our infrastructure, and it is very important, that we are a | :44:00. | :44:02. | |
country which continues to create jobs. Our record in the last six | :44:03. | :44:07. | |
years over job creation as a country is extremely strong by any | :44:08. | :44:13. | |
standards, historical or international, and it is good that | :44:14. | :44:17. | |
we are not a society that is played with mass unemployment. But again, | :44:18. | :44:23. | |
you are the self-styled workers party, Philip Hammond said this and | :44:24. | :44:28. | |
Theresa May said at yesterday, but UK workers in fact work longer hours | :44:29. | :44:34. | |
for less pay than the other... The original EU 15, so what is the | :44:35. | :44:41. | |
workers party doing about that? The reason why that is the case, as the | :44:42. | :44:45. | |
Chancellor made clear, that is because our productivity levels are | :44:46. | :44:49. | |
not as high as a number of our competitors. It comes back to this | :44:50. | :44:56. | |
point, sometimes worthy... Philip made the point about it will not set | :44:57. | :45:00. | |
the pulses racing, but how do we improve productivity as a nation. | :45:01. | :45:04. | |
Which hasn't changed since you came to power. These are long-term | :45:05. | :45:10. | |
challenges, but what we saw from the Chancellor, in a very serious and | :45:11. | :45:14. | |
thoughtful speech, was outlining ways in which we can improve that | :45:15. | :45:17. | |
productivity and how we can make long-term decisions to make sure | :45:18. | :45:21. | |
that the UK's productivity increases and it is true that that we benefit | :45:22. | :45:23. | |
people's wages. Abdeslam Ab For six years, or more | :45:24. | :45:31. | |
than six years, in the run-up to the election, your party told us that | :45:32. | :45:36. | |
the guiding light in its welfare reforms and its attitude to the | :45:37. | :45:40. | |
economy would be to make work pay, that if you got a job, and if you | :45:41. | :45:45. | |
did the right thing which Mr Osborne used to say all the time, it would | :45:46. | :45:52. | |
pay to work. And yet six years after you'd been in power, 50% of Pellow | :45:53. | :45:59. | |
citizens who're in poverty have at least one family member in work. So | :46:00. | :46:04. | |
in what way has that made work pay? They are working and they live in | :46:05. | :46:08. | |
poverty? Well, what we have seen is a significant increase in the number | :46:09. | :46:13. | |
of jobs in this country. Something like 2.7 million more jobs. But they | :46:14. | :46:17. | |
are still in poverty? In this economy, one of the reasons why we | :46:18. | :46:27. | |
have had this, and it's undoubtedly a success, in the last six years, | :46:28. | :46:32. | |
employment numbers are as high as they are. One of the reasons is | :46:33. | :46:36. | |
because welfare reform has played a part. More people are essentially | :46:37. | :46:39. | |
seeing that it's worthwhile for them working. Now, is there still more to | :46:40. | :46:43. | |
do, of course there is. I'm acknowledging that. It's not just a | :46:44. | :46:48. | |
case of more to do, relative poverty, which is still the official | :46:49. | :46:53. | |
measure of this Government, relative poverty among those in work is at | :46:54. | :47:00. | |
record levels. Record levels. How does that make you, the workers | :47:01. | :47:04. | |
party? The workers party are going to revolt if you carry on like this? | :47:05. | :47:10. | |
We are seeing a reduction in the number of workless households. I | :47:11. | :47:14. | |
understand that. My point is in-work poverty, you said work would pay. | :47:15. | :47:18. | |
Make work pay, get a job, do the right thing and you will prosper in | :47:19. | :47:27. | |
a Tory Britain, whereas among those who are in work, poverty, is at | :47:28. | :47:32. | |
record levels? What we are seeing is people who previously would have | :47:33. | :47:36. | |
been workless are now in employment. That's got to be a good thing. Now, | :47:37. | :47:41. | |
the next challenge, if you like, is how do we ensure those people who | :47:42. | :47:45. | |
perhaps in a previous era would have been out of work, they are now in | :47:46. | :47:49. | |
work but not earning sufficient. The next challenge is to ensure that | :47:50. | :47:53. | |
those people go on and earn more. Again, I come back to, how do you do | :47:54. | :47:57. | |
that? You can improve their living standards by taking them out of | :47:58. | :48:00. | |
income tax which we have done in four million cases. These figures | :48:01. | :48:05. | |
take that into account? You can help them by having a national living | :48:06. | :48:11. | |
wage whereby they are better paid and we introduced that. Taken that | :48:12. | :48:14. | |
into account? That will increase over the course of the Parliament. | :48:15. | :48:18. | |
But fundamentally, what you can do is ensure that we have got more | :48:19. | :48:22. | |
people who're highly skilled and that we have a society that is more | :48:23. | :48:31. | |
productive and that increase in product Ity ends up benefitting | :48:32. | :48:37. | |
People who're working, that is the point the Chancellor was making. I | :48:38. | :48:41. | |
know you can't give us any more details because we have to wait for | :48:42. | :48:44. | |
the Autumn Statement in November. But are we going to borrow more to | :48:45. | :48:48. | |
invest? As a Jens principle? I would make | :48:49. | :48:55. | |
two points about the Autumn Statement -- as a general principle. | :48:56. | :48:58. | |
The acknowledgement because of the uncertainty of the Brexit votes, | :48:59. | :49:02. | |
it's likely tax receipts will be lower than was previously projected, | :49:03. | :49:08. | |
so that means that we are not in a position to meet our 2019-2020 | :49:09. | :49:12. | |
surplus. So the deficit reduction will continue to increase but at a | :49:13. | :49:18. | |
slower pace. So it might not even continue to reduce? We'll see what | :49:19. | :49:21. | |
the Office for Budget Responsibility determines and we await their | :49:22. | :49:25. | |
numbers. So that's the first point. The second point is that we are in a | :49:26. | :49:30. | |
set of circumstances where interest rates are very low. The way the | :49:31. | :49:35. | |
markets have moved, we can borrow more cheaply than previously. If | :49:36. | :49:39. | |
there is a case for high value infrastructure, and we have to be | :49:40. | :49:45. | |
pretty tough about this, this is not about relaxing day-to-day spending | :49:46. | :49:48. | |
but if there is a case for high value infrastructure that allows | :49:49. | :49:51. | |
long-term productivity, then, as the Chancellor made clear, we'll be | :49:52. | :49:54. | |
willing to look at that. Thank you very much for coming to speak to us | :49:55. | :49:58. | |
after the Chancellor's speech. This Autumn Statement is on November 23rd | :49:59. | :50:01. | |
and we'll bring it all to you here on the Daily Politics on BBC Two, | :50:02. | :50:08. | |
probably from, about 11. 30-3 o'clock. Earlier, the Communities | :50:09. | :50:15. | |
Secretary made his speech to conference so let's have a listen to | :50:16. | :50:21. | |
some of what Sajid Javid had to say. 1.5 million households contain at | :50:22. | :50:26. | |
least one adult who says he or she would love to buy or rent their own | :50:27. | :50:30. | |
home but they have simply not been able to afford to do so. Harold | :50:31. | :50:36. | |
Macmillan put it best more than 90 years ago. Housing is not a question | :50:37. | :50:41. | |
of conservativism or socialism, he said, it's a question of humanity. | :50:42. | :50:51. | |
Tackling this housing short fall isn't about political expediency. | :50:52. | :50:56. | |
It's a moral duty. It's one that falls on all of us, | :50:57. | :51:02. | |
not just in Parliament, but on businesses, if Local Government and | :51:03. | :51:08. | |
in local communities. I'm not afraid to stand up here and say that this | :51:09. | :51:14. | |
country has not built enough homes. We have to be honest about it. | :51:15. | :51:22. | |
In the last year of full records, we managed to deliver more than 170,000 | :51:23. | :51:27. | |
additional properties across England. It's not a bad number, but | :51:28. | :51:32. | |
it's far fewer than we need. We need to do much better. | :51:33. | :51:38. | |
Everyone agrees that we need more homes. Too many of us object to them | :51:39. | :51:46. | |
being next to us. We have got to change that attitude. | :51:47. | :51:52. | |
So my message today is clear - it's time to get building. | :51:53. | :52:00. | |
APPLAUSE. There was Sajid Javid announcing | :52:01. | :52:03. | |
beefing up the housing programme and getting the numbers behind the | :52:04. | :52:11. | |
current rate of completion about 138,000 in England. | :52:12. | :52:16. | |
So the motto of the conference here is "a country that | :52:17. | :52:18. | |
works for everyone", echoing Theresa's May's | :52:19. | :52:20. | |
on Downing Street when she first became Prime Minister. | :52:21. | :52:23. | |
We're joined now by the former universities | :52:24. | :52:25. | |
He's now executive chair of the Resolution Foundation, | :52:26. | :52:30. | |
a think tank which focuses on living standards. | :52:31. | :52:32. | |
Plenty of rhetoric about being the workers' party and a country that | :52:33. | :52:43. | |
works for everyone. But I think you heard my interview with David Gauke, | :52:44. | :52:46. | |
there is a long way to go to turn that rhetoric into reality? There | :52:47. | :52:51. | |
is. David was right to say that productivity is a key part of the | :52:52. | :52:54. | |
challenge. But there is another part of the challenge which is what Sajid | :52:55. | :52:58. | |
was talking about, the work resolution shows housing costs are | :52:59. | :53:02. | |
one of the big pressures on living standards for people on low incomes. | :53:03. | :53:07. | |
The increase in the housing cost, it looks to be the equivalent of about | :53:08. | :53:12. | |
a 14p increase in income tax. If we can get more housing built and | :53:13. | :53:15. | |
because there is an increase in supply, see over time the cost of | :53:16. | :53:19. | |
housing starts falling, people will feel that as an improvement in their | :53:20. | :53:23. | |
living standards, their wages will go further, the moment low income | :53:24. | :53:27. | |
families have to put more of their wages into rents. Both in the | :53:28. | :53:32. | |
private and public sector. Yes. And also, I was looking at the figures | :53:33. | :53:35. | |
and because we failed to build enough houses to meet the demand, | :53:36. | :53:42. | |
the Housing Benefit bill has gone through the roof because people on | :53:43. | :53:45. | |
average incomes can't afford these rents so the state has to subsidise? | :53:46. | :53:50. | |
Yes, you are absolutely right. It's a double hit? There are more people | :53:51. | :53:54. | |
on means tested benefits and if people go from youth into middle age | :53:55. | :53:58. | |
and are still renters, the long-term challenge is what if you have got | :53:59. | :54:02. | |
many pensioners who aren't owner occupiers and millions of pensioners | :54:03. | :54:05. | |
claiming Housing Benefit so it actually makes sense in terms of | :54:06. | :54:09. | |
getting a long-term grip on public spending to make it easier for | :54:10. | :54:12. | |
people to own their own homes. That's why I think what Sajid said | :54:13. | :54:15. | |
today was absolutely the right thing. Shouldn't there be massive | :54:16. | :54:19. | |
council house building programmes? It's interesting you should say | :54:20. | :54:23. | |
that. When I look at what the Conservative Party did in the | :54:24. | :54:31. | |
1950s... 300,000 houses a year, Harold Macmillan Housing Minister | :54:32. | :54:36. | |
Yes, and he did private house building and public house building, | :54:37. | :54:43. | |
a combination. With Sajid's statement today, private building is | :54:44. | :54:47. | |
not on itself going to get us enough houses. Some will have to be public | :54:48. | :54:53. | |
sector building. Here in Birmingham, they put up lots of prefabs in the | :54:54. | :54:58. | |
50s, they needed to do something to house people and we need that. Not | :54:59. | :55:03. | |
prefabs, I assume? There is a debate about whether we can make the cost | :55:04. | :55:07. | |
of building houses lower, that is a different story but certainly we are | :55:08. | :55:09. | |
seeing this Government focus on getting more houses built. One issue | :55:10. | :55:14. | |
on the housing issue, and you are right, housing is such an issue on | :55:15. | :55:18. | |
poverty and benefits and on people's ability to get on as well, but not | :55:19. | :55:22. | |
only do we fail to provide enough houses for our people, even we we | :55:23. | :55:27. | |
do, we build the smallest new homes in the European Union. 76 square | :55:28. | :55:32. | |
metres is the average size. Even in Denmark it's 137, Holland, which is | :55:33. | :55:40. | |
so crowded they have to reclaim the sea, 115 square metres, we treat | :55:41. | :55:43. | |
people badly in the regard. That is because the price of land is so | :55:44. | :55:47. | |
high. The big cost of the house is the cost of the land. When you have | :55:48. | :55:51. | |
highly restrict i planning arrangements which mean the smaller | :55:52. | :55:54. | |
areas you can build on, that pushes up the price. Sajid said an | :55:55. | :55:59. | |
important thing today, he's focussing on more brown field | :56:00. | :56:02. | |
building, high streets where you have had shots in the past, perhaps | :56:03. | :56:07. | |
that's where you can in-fill with flats, houses, places we have not | :56:08. | :56:10. | |
assumed we can build on before, we can build there. If I had a pound | :56:11. | :56:16. | |
for every time politicians say they would build on brown field sites, I | :56:17. | :56:23. | |
may well be able to build on the brown field site -- able to pay for | :56:24. | :56:30. | |
the build myself! The Brown record was poor, this | :56:31. | :56:34. | |
Government's record is actually in many ways so far worse than pretty | :56:35. | :56:42. | |
poor, so look, most of the demand for new homes is biggest in those | :56:43. | :56:47. | |
areas that are run by the Tories, by the people at this conference. Yes. | :56:48. | :56:51. | |
And they don't want to zone their land for a lot more houses so you | :56:52. | :56:55. | |
are looking at the problem, that's the fundamental problem? I would say | :56:56. | :57:00. | |
that where we can do more is that the policy measures have tended to | :57:01. | :57:06. | |
be on the demand side, helping couples with the cost. We have got | :57:07. | :57:10. | |
to get more built. If you lack at what the Government is proposing, | :57:11. | :57:13. | |
it's going to be easier to build on public sector land. There's going to | :57:14. | :57:17. | |
be more liberalisation of the planning regime so you can build on | :57:18. | :57:23. | |
areas that have had empty shots and things. We can shift focus to | :57:24. | :57:26. | |
getting more built, not just helping people with the costs by extra | :57:27. | :57:33. | |
allowances. You heard me talking to David Gauke about the number of | :57:34. | :57:36. | |
people in jobs, they're very much the working poor. One thing that | :57:37. | :57:40. | |
would help the working poor? Once you are in work, making it easier to | :57:41. | :57:45. | |
move on and move up and using the apprenticeship levy to help people | :57:46. | :57:49. | |
into training and devolving it to local towns and cities. So local | :57:50. | :57:56. | |
skills? Yes. Shifting people off unemployment into work, sadly too | :57:57. | :57:59. | |
often it's low-paid, the next thing is to help them move to better paid | :58:00. | :58:03. | |
jobs. Are you enjoying being in the think-tank rather than being in the | :58:04. | :58:07. | |
thick of it? Well, I was in think-tanks before I was at the | :58:08. | :58:12. | |
Centre for Policy Studies. I'm enjoying write am and we are | :58:13. | :58:16. | |
contributing to the debate. Thank you very much for joining us on the | :58:17. | :58:20. | |
Daily Politics conference special. That's it from us in Birmingham | :58:21. | :58:24. | |
after two hours of broadcasting. I'll be back with highlights from | :58:25. | :58:28. | |
today's conference, including the Chancellor's speech on BBC Two this | :58:29. | :58:32. | |
evening just after Newsnight, around 11. 15. We'll have more live | :58:33. | :58:37. | |
coverage here from what is still a sunny Birmingham here at the | :58:38. | :58:41. | |
Conservative Party conference, as they move on to their second day, or | :58:42. | :58:45. | |
is it their third. I never know if we count Sundays these days, anyway, | :58:46. | :58:50. | |
we'll be here tomorrow building up to the big speech by the Prime | :58:51. | :58:52. | |
Minister which will close this conference on Wednesday morning. | :58:53. | :58:54. | |
Until then, bye. | :58:55. | :58:59. |