12/01/2017 Daily Politics


12/01/2017

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Any thoughts that Donald Trump was planning on toning

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down his style as he heads to the White House were banished

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yesterday as he answered head-on extraordinary allegations

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about Russian attempts to blackmail him.

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Mr Trump also went on the offensive against the media bigly,

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as he might say, and now seems to have gone to war with his own US

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Theresa May's claims that the NHS has more money than it asked

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for were challenged yesterday by the man who runs

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What's the truth of it, and is money the whole answer?

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We'll be paying tribute to Professor Anthony King,

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political expert and veteran of the BBC's election coverage

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for more than 20 years, following news of his death this

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Protest should ensure people coming here filling gaps in the labour

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market not taking jobs British people could do.

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And did this really amount to a 'hate incident'?

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The police apparently think so - we'll be joined by the man

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who complained about a speech by the Home Secretary.

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All that in the next hour, when we'll bring you more stories

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than a Donald Trump press conference.

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And joining us for the whole of the show, it's the former

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Conservative leader - he's now a Tory peer -

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The President-elect of the United States hadn't given

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a press conference for six months, and if we'd perhaps been

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beginning to forget just how different his style of politics

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is to the Washington consensus, then we were reminded

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In a free-wheeling and, at times, chaotic hour of taking

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and answering questions, he had plenty to say

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about what he intends to do with his business interests once

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he takes office, about his tax returns, job creation

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But the most explosive part was his response to allegations,

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so far unsubstantiated, but published in some media outlets

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that his election team colluded with Russia,

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and that Russia held compromising material about his private life.

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I saw the information, I read the information outside of that meeting.

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It is all fake news, it is phoney stuff, it didn't happen, and it was

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gotten by opponents of hours. Since you are attacking our news

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organisation... Your organisation is terrible. I think it is a disgrace

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and I say that and that is something Nazi Germany would have done and did

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do. I think it is a disgrace that information that was false and fake

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and never happened got released to the public as far as BuzzFeed, which

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is a failing pile of garbage, writing it, I think they will suffer

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the consequences, they already are. Does anyone believe that story? I

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We're joined now by the foreign affairs analyst Tim Marshall.

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And by what some say will be the ambassador to the EU. It cannot be

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confirmed until it comes from his mouth. Tim Marshall, let's look at

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the providence of this stuff, particularly what BuzzFeed has been

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publishing. A company in Washington called Fusion GPS started by a

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journalist from the Wall Street Journal is hired by a billionaire

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Republican to gather dirt on Donald Trump to stop him becoming the

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Republican candidate. That fails. Rich Democrats pick up the contract

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from Fusion GPS because they want to stop him becoming president of the

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United States. The information is provided largely or compiled largely

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by a former British intelligence officer. This is paid for

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information that we cannot verify. Was it right to publish it? Probably

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not. And people that are desperate to believe it and want to believe

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it, especially the most lurid allegations, which has garnered all

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the attention, are desperate to believe it and I think their

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suspension of disbelief is suspended. Let me tell you a story,

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young reporter, 30, first time in Moscow, knock on the door, a young

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Natasha. I knew what was going on and I closed the door with her on

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the outside of it because the way they work, they try to get you on

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camera when you are younger and if you become a senior reporter they

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have something on you. I knew that at 30 years old. Do I believe Donald

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Trump will be in a Moscow hotel suite acting in that manner in his

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60s when he knows the way the world works? I don't. If that does not add

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up, and not does not add up. It was doing the rounds, what gave it some

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credibility was when it was distilled into two pages and the

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authorities thought, we need to show it to the president and President

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elect and that opened the floodgates. I can understand it

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being published but I ask people that view things through the otter

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dislike of Mr Trump, which, for give me, some of which I share, future

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ambassador to the EU! Yet to be confirmed. I am not a fan but I ask

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people to look at this story not through the prism of their dislike

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of this man but the prism of its reliability and if it was the same

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thing about President Obama, would you be thinking, this looks dodgy?

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This is what Mr Trump did with Mr Obama when he tried to make out he

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was not born in the United States. He is playing by the sword and dying

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by it but it does not make the allegations against him right. Let

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me come to the presumptive ambassador of somewhere, it could be

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Moldavia, you never know. Is this damaging Donald Trump? Yesterday, it

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was an incredible news conference. He comes out the winner, he looks

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confident, robust, he defends himself and he proves that the news

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media, some part of it, is trying to delegitimise his presidency and

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election and doing it by the use of fake news. If it is not fake news,

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and we don't know... Let me tell you what British intelligence told me.

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This person, who was MI6. It is Christopher Steele, who was also

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FBI, say he has an intelligence background, but he was paid by the

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people you have mentioned who were working for Jeb Bush. He kept adding

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to the dossier and using information given to him by the FSB in Russia,

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most of it fabricated, the more he put into the dossier of the more he

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got paid, so he made a sensationalist Bosnia and just like

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your lawyer charges you more hours to get paid more. You said most of

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it fabricated, what was not fabricated? I do not know what was

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fabricated. You do not know if most is fabricated? The salacious stuff

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we have read... Some of it might be true? It is true Mr Trump was in

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Moscow. For be Miss universe contest.

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Interesting, what British intelligence has been saying here.

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Why was Mr Steele so keen to get this out? I understand he sent it to

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Senator McCain, no friend of Donald Trump, he was touting it around and

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suddenly he says, gosh, I have to disappear, the Kremlin could now be

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after me. If he is a former MI6, he would have worked that out. We know

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what happened to Alexander Litvinenko. Poisoned in London. The

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former FBI man who took it to McCain, you can justify this in that

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if he genuinely feels this is swirling around about the future

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leader of the free world, it is necessary that the administration

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knows this stuff is swirling around and knows this is what people are

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saying, I think it is legitimate to have passed that on, legitimate for

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James Clapper to pass it on. Was it legitimate to be done in the way it

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was done? The intelligence services in America had a report for the

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president which they were going to share with Mr Trump and parts of

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Congress, which was their best intelligence on Russia's involvement

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in the US election. Authenticated, their work, they stood by it. It was

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a proper intelligence briefing for the oval office and two that they

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attached a 2-page summary of Mr Steele's 35 page report which they

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don't know whether it is gossip or anything, the Washington Post, no

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friend of Mr Trump, as it says, that devalues the intelligence that the

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president is getting. The New York Times has a similar approach. You

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can make the case that if this is swirling around, they need to be

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aware of it. When you are at the very top, you only know as much as

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the people below you tell you. Two things yesterday were overlooked

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which was Donald Trump shifting and saying it was the Russians he thinks

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who hacked originally and the other is Rex Tillerson, the incoming

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Secretary of State, evidence to the House, where his attitude, excuse

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me, the Senate, where it was so far away from what Donald Trump is said

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about Russia we either have a disconnect between the Secretary of

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State and incoming president or we saw the real US policy. This must've

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happened to you every day when you were Home Secretary, Michael? My

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memory must be playing the tricks. I cannot quite bring it to mind! We

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have the dossier at! I agree with what Tim has been saying, it may be

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entertaining in a way, it is not much to do with us. This man... As

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the United Kingdom? This man in eight days will be president of the

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most powerful country in the world and president of our most important

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ally. We have to do what we can to build good relations with the

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administration to try to influence them where we can, that is what we

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in this country should focus on. There is a serious undertone and

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that is that we know now from the BBC's Paul Wood, who has been

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well-informed in this, that on October 15 the US secret

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Intelligence Corps issued a warrant to investigate two Russian banks and

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had to do it because the CIA discovered, and that is not allowed

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theoretically to operate in the US itself, so joined with the FBI and

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other agencies to investigate if Russian money went into the Trump

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campaign and this is an ongoing investigation, a warrant issued by

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the US court. If that was true it would be illegal and a major problem

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for Mr Trump. It sound so, I do not know if it has been proven yet. It

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is being investigated. There are constant investigations about

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foreign entities dabbling in American... They are not allowed to

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finance? That is correct. This happened in previous elections where

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we discovered after the fact some governments have tried to have

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influence. That would be untoward and illegal. It would be dangerous

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for Mr Trump if it is true? Certainly. These hypotheticals. It

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would be dangerous if the Chinese or North Koreans did it. It is not

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hypothetical in the sense... We do not know if it happened but there

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are six US agencies involved in the investigation and a US court has

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issued a warrant. There is some thought, trying to step back from

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the lurid detail, that what is going on is all our emphasis is on Russia

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and Mr Trump's relationship or attitude to Russia, whereas the real

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story is his hard-line attitude to China and that came out in the Rex

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Tillerson hearings yesterday. That is probably more important. If these

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are true allegations they are devastating, but I do not see any

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reason to believe them and it is tittle tattle but the substantive

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stuff is what you say. Policy on Russia are laid out yesterday and

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policy on China. We may be heading and I say we, a major trade war with

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China. Led by the Trump administration. The Chinese will

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lose more but the Americans will lose and we will lose if they have a

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trade war and that is the tough stuff. We are worried about the

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Russian battalions on the Estonian border and we should be worried

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about what the Americans and Chinese are doing and yesterday the Chinese

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aircraft carrier sailed close to Taiwan, within its air

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identification zone, a deliberate push back to the Americans. The tie

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with the scramble jets and ships and went out to see them. They sending

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signals but it is that signal and more important, more than likely the

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trade war, that will impact our lives.

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President Obama told us at the start of the referendum campaign that the

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way forward for trade deals were multilateral regional block trade

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deals, and that if Britain left the EU we would be at the back of the

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queue for a bilateral deal. Could I suggest to you that he was wrong on

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both counts, that the future is now back to those deals, cheated is

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over, the Brent Celek 's elections will kill it dead -- TTIP is over. I

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have said all this in print, the UK is now at the front of the cube. You

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heard it here first. Good news? It is, if it happens, and

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I hope it will, but Tim is right, if the Trump Administration plunges the

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world into the kind of protectionism we saw in the nineteen 30s... Which

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was a Republican administration which did that. It would be

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disastrous for the whole world economy and for us as well as the

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United States and China. Would you want to work with Nigel Farage? I'm

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not a UK citizen, I don't belong to a political party... He is not an

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American citizen but thinks he can get a job there! I have had

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conversations with him on numerous occasions. Wherever you are

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Ambassador of, would you come back and speak to us? I would be glad to,

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I watch your show. Along with the Queen! Jeremy Corbyn

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has repeated his offer to Donald Trump to visit a London mosque with

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him as and when he comes over. I think that would be a very high

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priority. Let's turn our attention back

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to home now, and what is probably the biggest story of the week

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and the year so far, It was the focus at yesterday's

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Prime Minister's Questions, but probably the more significant

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moment came later on when the chief executive of NHS England appeared

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before the Public Accounts Committee and was asked about

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whether the health service You may remember the Prime Minister

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was asked about this at the weekend, and she said, "We asked the NHS

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a while back to set out what it needed over the next five years

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in terms of its plan for the future They did that -

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we gave them the funding. In fact, we gave them more

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funding than they required, so funding is now at record levels

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for the NHS." But yesterday Mr Stevens said that

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interpretation of the funding Well, it's right that, by 2020,

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NHS England will be getting an extra 10 billion over the course

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of six years. I don't think that's the same

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as saying we're getting more than we asked for over five years,

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because it was a five-year forward And, over and above that,

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we've obviously had a spending review negotiation in the meantime

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and that has set the NHS budget for the next three years,

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and it's a matter of fact, I've said it previously

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to Select Committee back in October that, like probably every part

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of the public service, we got less than we asked

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for in that process, and so I think it would be

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stretching it to say that the NHS And we're joined now

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by Saffron Cordery, who's the director of policy at NHS

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Providers, which is the public voice We did ask to speak to a minister

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from the Department of Health, Welcome to the programme. The Royal

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College of Nursing and the Royal College of physicians say conditions

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in the NHS are the worst their members have experienced. The

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opposition has said there is a crisis in the NHS and the Government

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is in denial, but yesterday the Prime Minister maintained the real

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problems are confined to a few areas. Which is it in your mind, is

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it a national crisis or a handful of struggling first? You might expect

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me to say this, but I think it is somewhere between the two. What

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we are seeing is extreme pressure in hospitals up and down the country,

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we have heard talk about trolley waits and talk about people facing

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some really difficult situations, whether you are a member of staff or

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a patient in A, but what I would say is that NHS trusts are really

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stretching every sinew to make sure that they manage the pressure on

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them. I don't think it is the humanitarian crisis that we heard

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talked at the weekend from the Red Cross, but what we can't deny is the

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fact that there is severe pressure out there and there is a funding

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shortfall for the NHS. Spiralling demand is what some NHS trusts have

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said, where has that come from? It is spiralling demand and it comes

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from many, many places. We have seen things like social care cut to such

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a level that people are not receiving the care they need in

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their own homes, which means the severity of their conditions might

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increase so they are more likely to turn up at A Also things like

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cuts in local authority services for things like drug and alcohol

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services, which means people who need those

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services, perhaps people with mental health conditions, are turning up at

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a D because they are not receiving the preventative support they need,

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so we see it coming from all sources. Also we have to look at

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things like GP care, so when people cannot get an appointment with their

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GP, and we know how difficult that is up and down the country, when

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they cannot get an appointment they often turn up at A, so there are

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many sources. Could the demand have been better anticipated by some of

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the hospital trust? I think it is a very, very difficult position, a

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very complex picture, and it is hard to anticipate the level of demand

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increases when they are already running at such a high level, so

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even if you anticipate that demand, when you reach 100%, you reach 100%,

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it is impossible to run at 105% capacity, so that is

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a difficult question to answer. Theresa May said yesterday at Prime

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Minister's Questions that there have only been a small number of

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incidents in which unacceptable practices have taken place, evidence

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of people being left on trolleys for hours and hours, some people dying

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on them unfortunately in hospital corridors. Is that a fair

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assessment, that it is only a small number of incidents? I think it is

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fair that it is only a small number of severe incidents, but what is not

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acceptable to anyone in the NHS or any patient turning up to a D is

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the fact that we are now in a situation where trusts are not

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meeting the 95% of patients being seen in four hours target, it is

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about 70 to 80% at the moment, lover in many places, and that is not

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acceptable, it is a constitutional target that trusts should meet.

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Michael Howard, listening to Saffron Cordery, if you take on board what

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she says, do you accept that at this stage when many trusts have reached

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100% capacity with many others just below, 95 to 100%, that more money

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is now urgently needed? No, because if you talk about now what is

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clearly beyond dispute, as Sieben Stevens has accepted, the ?4 billion

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extra funding I think is 4 million this year, is what the NHS after

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four... He is very clear between now and 2020 what he asked for, but

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needed now to prevent a further crisis in future years... Let's talk

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about future years and the possibility of future crises. The

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Prime Minister was right to emphasise the fact that it is a

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minority of trusts which are finding it extraordinarily difficult to deal

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with these extreme pressures, and that it was very important to spread

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best practice across the NHS. Let me give you two specific examples. I

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have the privilege of chairing Hospice UK, the umbrella

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organisation for our hospices. We have a plan which we are about to

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test which would enable us to take out of hospital before they died

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50,000 of the 250,000 people who died in hospital every year, many of

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them don't want to die in hospital, don't need to die in hospital, and

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should not die in hospital. That would relieve pressure on beds.

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Another example, in Cardiff Bay have a treatment centre for people who

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have had too much to drink, so people who have had too much to

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drink are referred to that centre, not accident and emergency, they

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don't add to the pressure in accident and emergency, they don't

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make life difficult for the staff and other patients, and what I think

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is necessary, what the NHS should be better at, is spreading best

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practice, taking advantage of initiatives of this kind and making

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sure that the money is much better spent. But they cannot do that

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because there have been cuts to council services, and I take the

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preset... They do it in Cardiff. Councils themselves say they have

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had to cut the kind of care that leads to the bottleneck at A How

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do you answer those points, that the kind of best practice he has

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outlined could be spread more widely across the NHS? I have two points to

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make, it is ?3.7 billion this year and Simon Stevens was clear in

:25:24.:25:27.

saying that unless there is significant extra investment in

:25:28.:25:29.

social care and broader services then this would not be enough, and

:25:30.:25:34.

it is important to take that on board. In terms of beds, best

:25:35.:25:39.

practice, we are seeing NHS trusts up and down the country working with

:25:40.:25:42.

partners, the voluntary sector, other bits of the public sector to

:25:43.:25:47.

put those schemes into place but it takes time, and to really transform

:25:48.:25:53.

services takes time. What we need to do is double running, fun and what

:25:54.:25:57.

we have got there and fund investment in transformation. There

:25:58.:26:02.

has been some briefing against Simon Stevens in the newspapers, has he

:26:03.:26:06.

been treated unfairly by Number Ten? At a time of extreme stress and

:26:07.:26:09.

pressure in the NHS when everyone is doing everything they can, I don't

:26:10.:26:14.

think it is fair at this point, or acceptable, to focus the blame on

:26:15.:26:19.

NHS leaders and, by extension, NHS staff and the patients that turn up

:26:20.:26:24.

at A What we have to see is maybe standing back on this and starting

:26:25.:26:27.

to look at the problem in hand, which is demand going through the

:26:28.:26:38.

roof, nowhere to divert patients to, and we need to start preventing some

:26:39.:26:41.

of these problems from arising, rather than starting to call for

:26:42.:26:43.

people to look at their own position. And you think it was

:26:44.:26:45.

Number Ten that has been briefing against him? I don't have any

:26:46.:26:48.

information on that. Thank you very much.

:26:49.:26:48.

Now, who remembers the EU referendum?

:26:49.:26:50.

Well, in case you had, too, here are some of our favourite moments.

:26:51.:26:59.

And I will go to Parliament and propose that the British people

:27:00.:27:02.

MUSIC: Should I Stay Or Should I Go? by the Clash.

:27:03.:27:06.

I'm actually ringing you from the Vote Leave campaign.

:27:07.:27:16.

It's nonsense, it's not true. I couldn't be clearer than that.

:27:17.:27:22.

Why should they tell us how powerful our vacuum cleaners should be?

:27:23.:27:26.

Why should they tell us how powerful our hairdryers should be?

:27:27.:27:33.

The UK is going to be in the back of the queue.

:27:34.:27:38.

Britain will be permanently poorer if we left the European Union.

:27:39.:27:41.

The shock to our economy after leaving Europe will tip

:27:42.:27:44.

They have done this in order to scare the pants off

:27:45.:27:49.

The UK asparagus will be just as sprouting, just as delicious,

:27:50.:27:55.

The European Union, many warts and all, has proved itself to be

:27:56.:28:02.

If we vote Leave and take back control, I believe that this

:28:03.:28:25.

Thursday could be our country's Independence Day.

:28:26.:28:27.

Ah, it seems like it was only last summer.

:28:28.:28:36.

It was. Oh, right there you go!

:28:37.:28:43.

Well, we're going to reflect a little on the referendum campaign

:28:44.:28:46.

now, and look ahead to what might happen once the Brexit process has

:28:47.:28:49.

really begun with two pivotal figures from the Leave

:28:50.:28:51.

It's Paul Stephenson - he worked on the victorious

:28:52.:28:58.

And James McGrory, who worked on the not-so-victorious

:28:59.:29:03.

Let me come to the victor first, what is the single biggest reason

:29:04.:29:17.

why you one, looking back? I think the renegotiation, the failure of

:29:18.:29:20.

the renegotiation to deliver anything that was sellable on the

:29:21.:29:24.

doorsteps to the British people. The British people have been sceptical

:29:25.:29:27.

of the EU for a long time, only about a third of the public really

:29:28.:29:31.

like the EU and want to stay in regardless, and a whole bunch of

:29:32.:29:34.

people in the middle that both campaigns were chasing, the swing

:29:35.:29:36.

vote, needed to be convinced, and one way

:29:37.:29:49.

to convince them was to scare them about the consequences of change,

:29:50.:29:52.

the other way was to get a good deal out of Europe. Lots of people like

:29:53.:29:55.

me were in favour of reform who might have been convinced by a

:29:56.:29:57.

better deal but when you are forced into a binary choice, it is, if this

:29:58.:30:01.

is what is on the table, let's go for God. What do you think was the

:30:02.:30:03.

biggest reason that you lost? I think what Paul said, especially

:30:04.:30:07.

when there was 30 years of almost unchallenged Euroscepticism in this

:30:08.:30:11.

country that had been allowed to take hold and people on my side of

:30:12.:30:13.

the argument have to take responsibility for not challenging

:30:14.:30:17.

that in the decades running up to the referendum. When you had such

:30:18.:30:21.

clear messages about money, border and laws, which the Leave campaign

:30:22.:30:26.

did, trying to counter them in, what, six months, without anything

:30:27.:30:31.

new to show that European reform was a big deal that was going to be able

:30:32.:30:34.

to deliver, changes that people wanted, made it difficult.

:30:35.:30:40.

There are always mistakes made in campaigns, looking back, were their

:30:41.:30:45.

mistakes you made that if you had not made them, the campaign, would

:30:46.:30:51.

have made a difference? You cannot point to one single finger and say

:30:52.:30:55.

if we did this differently we would have won, there were too many

:30:56.:31:00.

different factors involved. The fact that our campaign was reluctant to

:31:01.:31:06.

attack the Leave campaign in the same way the Leave campaign were

:31:07.:31:09.

perfectly ready to attack our campaign did not help. Was it a blue

:31:10.:31:15.

on blue problem? It was, coming from Downing Street, and I understand the

:31:16.:31:19.

reasons, there were political reasons why they wanted to keep the

:31:20.:31:22.

party together afterwards but sometimes it was like bringing a

:31:23.:31:27.

spoon to a knife fight. I think they were right because it was when

:31:28.:31:32.

Downing Street authorised attacks on people like Boris Johnson and

:31:33.:31:35.

Michael Gove and suddenly these people realised they were in a death

:31:36.:31:40.

match. The Prime Minister and Chancellor's language was severe

:31:41.:31:44.

throughout the campaign. They said people were economically literature

:31:45.:31:47.

and half the MPs were threatening World War III. I take the point that

:31:48.:31:53.

when they started going for senior figures, they got John Major and

:31:54.:31:57.

Michael Heseltine out to attack people on our campaign that people

:31:58.:31:59.

like Boris and Michael foot they needed to go on the attack. What are

:32:00.:32:04.

your thoughts, Michael? I am more interested in the future. It is a

:32:05.:32:10.

huge historic event. I agree, David Cameron and his Bloomberg speech

:32:11.:32:17.

saying he was setting out to achieve fundamental reform of the European

:32:18.:32:22.

Union. If he had got it, like Paul, I would have been on his side in the

:32:23.:32:28.

referendum campaign, but the deal he brought back was so inadequate, it

:32:29.:32:31.

was barely mentioned during the campaign. No one could say... In my

:32:32.:32:39.

experience, it was not mentioned. Nobody could say look at this

:32:40.:32:43.

wonderful deal it was a dreadful deal. The same is true of Harold

:32:44.:32:48.

Wilson in 75 when he brought back a deal barely mentioned and he won. He

:32:49.:32:53.

did but it was a different time and different European community and I

:32:54.:32:56.

think there is a limit to which you can draw parallels. Who was the hero

:32:57.:33:01.

of your campaign? The single most important person? Can I have three?

:33:02.:33:14.

No. I would say Boris. Will Straw deserves credit for running a

:33:15.:33:17.

professional campaign. Bringing parties together without falling

:33:18.:33:24.

out. Let's look forward. Is it not clear although the government will

:33:25.:33:28.

not quite say it, but the Prime Minister came close on Sky News the

:33:29.:33:33.

weekend, that we will not be members of the single market, and the

:33:34.:33:37.

argument will be how much access will we have and on what terms, but

:33:38.:33:42.

it will not be membership and therefore the access cannot be as

:33:43.:33:48.

great as membership and the question is is it 90%, 70% of what we have

:33:49.:33:53.

now? That is at the crux of negotiations? I think so. People

:33:54.:33:59.

accept we will leave the debate now is whether we stay in the customs

:34:00.:34:04.

union and get benefits of free trade deals with countries like America,

:34:05.:34:08.

and what length of transition period and will there be one and what

:34:09.:34:13.

length? Beyond the two years? Correct, if we leave the customs

:34:14.:34:18.

union and single market there is an argument for having a transitional

:34:19.:34:23.

deal of two, five years that allows you to move from one complicated

:34:24.:34:28.

system to another. Do you accept that although there will be an

:34:29.:34:32.

argument over the degree of access to the single market, we will not be

:34:33.:34:38.

members in the way we are now? It is interesting the government have not

:34:39.:34:42.

ruled it out. They have been given ample opportunity to do so. You have

:34:43.:34:47.

to consider whether it is on the table because it is the best trading

:34:48.:34:53.

model available. I think signs are there that is the direction of

:34:54.:34:56.

travel the government is headed and if so, we are in a phoney debate

:34:57.:35:02.

between in and out and the points you make are right, what is the

:35:03.:35:06.

degree of access and if there is less Access, who are the winners and

:35:07.:35:10.

losers under any free trade agreement? You cannot have full

:35:11.:35:16.

access without membership therefore you will have losers, which will

:35:17.:35:20.

mean real impact on some sectors and a debate about who the winners and

:35:21.:35:23.

losers will be. What is your view? We must leave, it is not called the

:35:24.:35:31.

single market, it is called the internal market and the clue is in

:35:32.:35:34.

the name and if we leave the EU we cannot be part of the internal

:35:35.:35:37.

market or single market and I do not believe we should be members of the

:35:38.:35:43.

customs union. I do not think it is a question of negotiating 90%

:35:44.:35:49.

access, 80% access, I think it's basically a choice between two

:35:50.:35:53.

models. One which will be in the interests of the EU and of the UK,

:35:54.:36:00.

which would be to have free trade in goods and access for services on the

:36:01.:36:04.

basis of equivalence of regulation, something like that, that would be

:36:05.:36:09.

the best, that is in their interests as well. If they are not interested

:36:10.:36:14.

in that and want to somehow punish us, we should say we are very happy

:36:15.:36:21.

with WTO rules, we can trade with you perfectly happily on that basis

:36:22.:36:27.

and what's more, if that is what you want, we will have six, 12 months

:36:28.:36:32.

after we leave when we will give you free access and then you can decide,

:36:33.:36:37.

the onus is on you, do you want to follow our lead and have free

:36:38.:36:40.

access, or do you want to put up tariffs, in which case we will too.

:36:41.:36:46.

In the campaign you were credited with coming up with policies that

:36:47.:36:50.

could be implemented if we left the European Union, things like an

:36:51.:36:53.

Australian style points system on migration and more money for NHS and

:36:54.:37:01.

cutting VAT on energy bills. These were discussed, but it is clear from

:37:02.:37:06.

the Theresa May government that of course the Brexit campaign had no

:37:07.:37:11.

authority to promise these things. It hasn't happened. It has not

:37:12.:37:17.

happened but those people at the top of the Leave campaign went into a

:37:18.:37:20.

leadership campaign they lost and Theresa May does not feel obligated

:37:21.:37:24.

to do what we set out in the policy platform, which is a shame will stop

:37:25.:37:28.

I think the government will give more money to the NHS. They would

:37:29.:37:36.

have had to do that anyway. The OBR identifies money coming back from

:37:37.:37:39.

the EU and it should be spent on the NHS. Are you reconciled now to us

:37:40.:37:46.

leaving the EU, or do you still think there may be ways, once the

:37:47.:37:52.

deal is done for example, perhaps a push for another referendum, that it

:37:53.:37:56.

could be stopped? That is not what we are arguing for, but I think MPs

:37:57.:38:02.

should be given a say on the deal in the same way they would be given a

:38:03.:38:06.

vote on the triggering of Article 50. David Davis said it would be

:38:07.:38:11.

inconceivable they wouldn't. If the European Parliament also had. But in

:38:12.:38:18.

your mind, it is on what terms we leave rather than stopping it? I

:38:19.:38:22.

think we are leaving but we should have a frank debate about the terms

:38:23.:38:26.

without being shouted down and saying you are a democracy denier

:38:27.:38:30.

and trying to frustrate the will of the people because you make the case

:38:31.:38:34.

for the single market, the customs union, any of those things. We need

:38:35.:38:38.

to debate that moves beyond remain and leave. No shouting down here. We

:38:39.:38:41.

will end our mature debate. Now, our guest of the day

:38:42.:38:44.

Michael Howard was of course Home Secretary under John Major,

:38:45.:38:46.

and if there is one phrase from his time in office that has

:38:47.:38:49.

stuck in the public's mind then it But, since then, the Conservative

:38:50.:38:52.

Party has taken some quite different views on what prison is for,

:38:53.:38:56.

and how many people should be in it - questions that have again been

:38:57.:38:59.

thrust into the spotlight following recent disturbances

:39:00.:39:02.

in English jails. Strangeways, Manchester,

:39:03.:39:03.

27 years ago. Two people died and ?60 million

:39:04.:39:13.

of damage was caused in the riots. Overcrowding and harsh

:39:14.:39:16.

conditions were blamed. Three years after the Strangeways

:39:17.:39:19.

riots, the new Home Secretary, Michael Howard, told his party

:39:20.:39:27.

conference that he wanted to lock more criminals up and keep them

:39:28.:39:32.

in austere conditions. It ensures that we are protected

:39:33.:39:37.

from murderers, muggers and rapists, and it makes many who are tempted

:39:38.:39:45.

to commit crime think twice. Michael Howard's "prison works"

:39:46.:39:52.

speech without doubt hit a nerve and it offered an apparently very

:39:53.:39:54.

powerful answer to the problem From then on, the prison

:39:55.:40:01.

population grew. This continued under

:40:02.:40:09.

New Labour, who also wanted Crime fell, but when Ken Clarke

:40:10.:40:11.

became the Justice Secretary under the coalition government,

:40:12.:40:16.

he turned years of Conservative Too often prison has proved a costly

:40:17.:40:17.

and ineffectual approach that fails to turn criminals

:40:18.:40:25.

into law-abiding citizens. Since 2010 we've seen a bit

:40:26.:40:33.

of a kind of ambivalent shift between different justice ministers

:40:34.:40:36.

and different governments. So under the coalition government,

:40:37.:40:38.

you had Ken Clarke gently trying to drive the prison population down

:40:39.:40:43.

a little bit, then his successor, Chris Grayling, showed

:40:44.:40:45.

no interest in that. Under this government,

:40:46.:40:47.

if you commit a crime, you are more likely to be caught

:40:48.:40:53.

and charged, you are more likely to go to prison,

:40:54.:40:56.

you will go there for longer, and it will cost the hard-working

:40:57.:40:59.

taxpayer less to keep you there. But, under his watch, a series

:41:00.:41:04.

of reports highlighted rising Then there was another

:41:05.:41:06.

change, when Michael Gove He wanted to bring the focus back

:41:07.:41:11.

to the rehabilitation revolution It's because I'm a Conservative I

:41:12.:41:16.

believe evil must be punished, but it is also because I'm

:41:17.:41:25.

a Conservative and a Christian that After the EU referendum,

:41:26.:41:28.

the new Prime Minister, Theresa May, gave Liz Truss the justice brief

:41:29.:41:32.

and her challenges include overcrowding,

:41:33.:41:34.

understaffing and riots. She's promised the biggest reform

:41:35.:41:38.

of the system in a generation. My starting point is refocusing

:41:39.:41:42.

the system so that everyone is clear that safety and rehabilitation

:41:43.:41:47.

is the purpose of the prison system, setting this out for the first

:41:48.:41:51.

time ever in statute. But some feel the government

:41:52.:41:54.

is still failing to address Both Labour and Conservative

:41:55.:41:58.

politicians have made the mistake of allowing sentence length

:41:59.:42:05.

to increase, so they are always Our prisons have never been

:42:06.:42:08.

resourced to the degree that they need to be to do

:42:09.:42:11.

what all parties want, which is they should be

:42:12.:42:14.

places of rehabilitation Soon after the recent riots,

:42:15.:42:16.

two former Home Secretaries and the former Deputy Prime Minister

:42:17.:42:23.

called for the prison population to be halved

:42:24.:42:27.

to the level it was at before But the jury is out on how long it

:42:28.:42:30.

would take to achieve this and how much public appetite

:42:31.:42:35.

there is see this happen. Michael Howard, author

:42:36.:42:40.

of the "prison works" We heard from the Prison Reform

:42:41.:42:52.

Trust that says it has been a mistake by Conservative and Labour

:42:53.:42:55.

governments to allow prison sentence length to increase, is he right? No,

:42:56.:43:05.

look, you can argue and I would strongly dispute that perhaps the

:43:06.:43:09.

prison population as it is today is a little bit too high, much higher

:43:10.:43:14.

than it was when I left office, but what this discussion all too often

:43:15.:43:18.

fails to take into account is the relationship between the prison

:43:19.:43:23.

population and crime. It is true the prison population has increased

:43:24.:43:29.

since I was Home Secretary. And recorded crime, crime according to

:43:30.:43:33.

the British crime survey has fallen by two thirds. Why is there a high

:43:34.:43:37.

prison population? Because the people who would otherwise be

:43:38.:43:40.

committing the crimes cannot commit them because they are in prison.

:43:41.:43:44.

There is often confusion. Or they should not be there with the first

:43:45.:43:50.

place or as long, which is what the Prison Reform Trust says? I do not

:43:51.:43:54.

agree. When I said prison works I did not been in the sense it should

:43:55.:44:00.

rehabilitate people. I am all for rehabilitation but nobody has found

:44:01.:44:06.

the best way to achieve rehabilitation and offending and

:44:07.:44:08.

reoffending rates for people sentenced in the community, not sent

:44:09.:44:14.

to prison, are also far too high, so rehabilitation I am in favour of, it

:44:15.:44:21.

is a very difficult nut to crack. Meanwhile, when you have serious

:44:22.:44:25.

professional criminals who are wreaking havoc on the community in

:44:26.:44:29.

which they live, you can prevent them continuing to commit crimes by

:44:30.:44:34.

putting them in prison so that they cannot continue to commit those

:44:35.:44:39.

crimes. You say it is a hard nut to crack but were you willing to look

:44:40.:44:43.

at the idea of rehabilitation, putting it at the centre in the way

:44:44.:44:48.

Ken Clarke would say he tried to do and perhaps arguably Michael Gove

:44:49.:44:51.

and Liz Truss are trying to do now, whereas you and Chris Grayling

:44:52.:44:56.

concentrated more on rhetoric. It was more about locking up people,

:44:57.:45:01.

punishing people and rehabilitation was a secondary thought. It was not

:45:02.:45:05.

just rhetoric because the prison population did rise and crime fell.

:45:06.:45:11.

My main objective was to stop the rising crime. When I became Home

:45:12.:45:15.

Secretary I was told crime had risen by an average of 50% for the

:45:16.:45:18.

previous 50 years and there was nothing I could do about it and I

:45:19.:45:22.

was determined to do something about it and I did so crime fell by 18% in

:45:23.:45:30.

the four years I was Home Secretary. I was also keen on improving

:45:31.:45:33.

education and we spend more on education in prisons when I was Home

:45:34.:45:36.

Secretary because that is a key to rehabilitation.

:45:37.:45:41.

You say you think the prison population is too high... I do, I

:45:42.:45:50.

don't know... You said it may be too high, we can debate whether it is

:45:51.:45:54.

too high or not but the prison system is in some sort of crisis,

:45:55.:45:58.

there are overcrowded jails and understaffing of resources and we

:45:59.:46:01.

have seen outbreaks of violence. Would you say the prison system as

:46:02.:46:05.

it is currently does not work any more? I certainly wouldn't say that.

:46:06.:46:10.

You do need to build more prison places if the population continues

:46:11.:46:14.

to rise, and when I was Home Secretary we set out a programme for

:46:15.:46:18.

building more prisons. I entirely accept that. But they have not come

:46:19.:46:24.

on board, Chris Grayling announced a seven wood close in 2013, two more

:46:25.:46:29.

partially shut, the new ones will not come on board until February and

:46:30.:46:35.

2020. There is a gap of six or seven years and the prison population is

:46:36.:46:39.

rising, that is a mistake in the planning? You have got to try to

:46:40.:46:44.

keep the rising places in pace with rising population, but it is judges

:46:45.:46:48.

who send people to prison, not politicians, and it is the judges

:46:49.:46:51.

who determine the length of sentences. All right.

:46:52.:46:56.

Now, according to the Crown Prosecution Service,

:46:57.:47:02.

a hate incident is "any incident which the victim, or anyone else,

:47:03.:47:05.

thinks is based on someone's prejudice towards them

:47:06.:47:07.

because of their race, religion, sexual orientation, disability

:47:08.:47:09.

British businesses have driven the economic recovery

:47:10.:47:13.

in this country with, employment at record levels.

:47:14.:47:18.

However, we still need to do more so all British people get

:47:19.:47:21.

the opportunities they need to get on in life.

:47:22.:47:26.

The tests should ensure people coming here are filling gaps

:47:27.:47:29.

in the labour market, not taking jobs that

:47:30.:47:31.

But it's become a tick-box exercise, allowing some firms to get away

:47:32.:47:35.

We won't win in the world if we don't do more

:47:36.:47:44.

It's not fair on companies doing the right thing,

:47:45.:47:50.

so I want us to look again at whether our immigration system

:47:51.:47:53.

provides the right incentives for businesses to invest

:47:54.:47:55.

That was Amber Rudd speaking at last year's Conservative conference.

:47:56.:48:01.

Journalists were told after her speech that a consultation

:48:02.:48:03.

paper would include an option to require companies

:48:04.:48:05.

to publish the proportion of international staff they employ.

:48:06.:48:08.

She was fairly roundly criticised, with Labour accusing her of "fanning

:48:09.:48:11.

Well, we learn from this morning's Times that one

:48:12.:48:16.

academic was so concerned about the implications

:48:17.:48:18.

of the Home Secretary's speech that he reported it to the police,

:48:19.:48:21.

and, under a new policy approved by Amber Rudd,

:48:22.:48:23.

it has been recorded as a "hate incident".

:48:24.:48:31.

The complainant is Joshua Silver, and he joins us now

:48:32.:48:37.

Welcome to the programme. At the Tory conference, the speech of which

:48:38.:48:42.

you complained, she said, we need to do more so all British people get

:48:43.:48:46.

the opportunities they need to get on in life, the test should ensure

:48:47.:48:51.

people coming here are filling gaps in the labour market, not taking

:48:52.:48:55.

jobs British people could do. In what conceivable way was that a

:48:56.:49:07.

hate speech? What I had been looking at is to what extent statements made

:49:08.:49:15.

by senior politicians about foreigners can be interpreted as

:49:16.:49:22.

some sort of mechanism, if you like, to help foster the idea in the

:49:23.:49:32.

country against the EU. That is a broad brush approach, and I

:49:33.:49:36.

understand that, but what was hateful about Amber Rudd's speech,

:49:37.:49:45.

on these words? Well, you just picked a few words... That is the

:49:46.:49:50.

key part of the speech from the briefing later talked about... What

:49:51.:49:56.

would be hateful about looking at companies... It is discriminating

:49:57.:50:04.

against, picking on foreigners? Why is it picking on foreigners to say

:50:05.:50:07.

people should be able to get on in life? She did say that she would

:50:08.:50:12.

keep lists of foreigners. That is not what the briefing was, I was at

:50:13.:50:16.

the conference, it was a press report that said that. Well, I

:50:17.:50:22.

certainly picked up, the press report was not accurate. What the

:50:23.:50:27.

briefing was, we had people at the briefing, it was an option, didn't

:50:28.:50:30.

happen in the end, but it was an option to look at a breakdown of

:50:31.:50:35.

companies of what percentage of foreign-born workforce they were

:50:36.:50:38.

employing and British-born, roughly an idea that Ed Miliband had

:50:39.:50:44.

proposed himself several years ago. You are a physicist, right, at

:50:45.:50:49.

Oxford? A Labour economist may well find that information very useful to

:50:50.:50:53.

work out where we are failing to give people already in this country

:50:54.:51:00.

of all hues and ethnicities and colours the proper skills. What is

:51:01.:51:04.

hateful about it? Keeping lists of foreigners is something... But that

:51:05.:51:09.

is not what was proposed. You just said it was. No, the proposal was,

:51:10.:51:16.

it was an option that was never done, was to find out if a company

:51:17.:51:22.

was employing 25% migrants or 30... What do you mean it was an option,

:51:23.:51:27.

what are you saying? It was an option, they didn't proceed. But

:51:28.:51:32.

they floated it. Did you watch the speech? No, but I read the draft and

:51:33.:51:39.

read all the feedback. But it was the speech you complained about?

:51:40.:51:45.

Yes. So you complained about a speech you haven't watched? I have

:51:46.:51:49.

read it carefully and looked at the feedback. I understand the feedback,

:51:50.:51:52.

politicians and sometimes journalists can't believe the

:51:53.:51:57.

feedback in itself. I'm still trying to find out what is hateful about

:51:58.:52:04.

the remarks... It is discriminating against foreigners, that is what it

:52:05.:52:10.

is about. Why? Because you pick on them and say, we want to give jobs

:52:11.:52:13.

to British people and not foreigners. That is not what she

:52:14.:52:18.

said. She simply wanted to find out if there are skills shortages and we

:52:19.:52:21.

are bringing people into do these jobs because our people don't have

:52:22.:52:25.

them, why would you not want to give British people the skills? It can be

:52:26.:52:31.

interpreted that way. The police in the end did not do a formal

:52:32.:52:34.

investigation but did recorded as a hate incident. Yes. Was this a hate

:52:35.:52:43.

incident? Michael Howard, I was asking you. Of course it wasn't. I

:52:44.:52:52.

think, you cited Ed Miliband, what Amber Rudd said was no different to

:52:53.:52:55.

what Gordon Brown said when he was Prime Minister, that there should be

:52:56.:52:58.

British jobs for British workers. That was much more expert is! It

:52:59.:53:02.

was, and nothing was done about it. I think Mr Silber should be

:53:03.:53:08.

thoroughly ashamed of himself, because what he's doing is to bring

:53:09.:53:11.

a piece of well-intentioned legislation into disrepute. The

:53:12.:53:17.

meaning behind the legislation is very important. It is meant to deal

:53:18.:53:22.

with hate crimes and Mr Silver, who has been unable to justify what he

:53:23.:53:27.

has done in the face of your questioning, is bring dingbat

:53:28.:53:30.

legislation into disrepute. I will give you a quick response,

:53:31.:53:34.

Professor. The response of the public was that this was

:53:35.:53:38.

discriminating. Have you made other complaint about politicians'

:53:39.:53:46.

speeches? Well, no, I'm not a typical, normal complainant but I

:53:47.:53:50.

have also looked at one of the statement, a statement made by Mrs

:53:51.:53:57.

May. Mrs May stated that she... Very briefly. Mrs May said she was in

:53:58.:54:05.

effect going to expel all foreign doctors. And that was also picked

:54:06.:54:09.

up. We are going to leave it there, I don't run by Mrs May saying that,

:54:10.:54:14.

but if you take it forward I will look forward to it. Thank you very

:54:15.:54:16.

much. Now, some sad news this morning

:54:17.:54:17.

as we learned of the death of Professor Anthony King,

:54:18.:54:20.

one of Britain's leading experts He helped us understand electoral

:54:21.:54:22.

trends, the opinion polls and political history,

:54:23.:54:31.

and for more than 20 years helped Let's look back at some of his most

:54:32.:54:34.

memorable contributions. Conservatives are deeply

:54:35.:54:42.

schizophrenic about the Labour Party. On the one hand they don't

:54:43.:54:46.

like the idea of red in tooth and claw socialism but they also believe

:54:47.:54:51.

they are the party to beat so they find it difficult to make up their

:54:52.:54:54.

minds on this issue, quite understandably.

:54:55.:54:57.

Even if our forecast did not exist I would say on the strength of these

:54:58.:55:00.

results that Mrs Thatcher will be back in Number Ten for the next four

:55:01.:55:05.

or five years with a much reduced majority but a perfectly adequate

:55:06.:55:09.

working majority, more than a slender majority.

:55:10.:55:12.

Paddy Ashdown is still talking the language of somebody who thinks one

:55:13.:55:15.

day the Liberal Democrats can be a major force, possibly even oust the

:55:16.:55:23.

Labour Party as the main opposition to the Conservatives. I really think

:55:24.:55:25.

that particular balloon needs to be punctured. If our exit poll is

:55:26.:55:28.

correct, this is a sensational night that we face. Absolutely. Landslide

:55:29.:55:36.

is too weak a word. I offer you the following, it is an asteroid hitting

:55:37.:55:40.

the planet destroying practically all life on Earth.

:55:41.:55:44.

Brilliant! The master of understatement!

:55:45.:55:47.

And we're joined now by Professor John Curtice,

:55:48.:55:49.

You are smiling, give us your memories of him. The extraordinary

:55:50.:56:00.

thing about Anthony King, especially on television, was that you could

:56:01.:56:03.

give him a relatively dry statistical essay, for example,

:56:04.:56:07.

maybe the Labour Party doing relatively well in places with lots

:56:08.:56:11.

of students, and at 2am or 3am Tony King would be able turn that into an

:56:12.:56:18.

interesting story, and to do so with butter fluency and with remarkable

:56:19.:56:22.

elegance. I think probably if you were to go through the whole of the

:56:23.:56:27.

recordings that you still have of Tony King's contributions to the

:56:28.:56:30.

BBC, you will probably struggle to ever hear and umm or ahh or any sign

:56:31.:56:41.

of linguistic evidently, he was extraordinary in his turn of phrase,

:56:42.:56:46.

a broadcaster's dream, and it also meant he was somebody who conveyed

:56:47.:56:49.

to the public the story of election night, what was interesting, what

:56:50.:56:55.

was the implication for the politicians, and to that extent at

:56:56.:56:59.

least turned it from simply being a night about numbers into a night

:57:00.:57:04.

about politics. How did he come to dominate our screens in terms of the

:57:05.:57:09.

coverage in the 80s and 90s, how did he get here and into our political

:57:10.:57:14.

life, as a Canadian? He came to the UK in the 1960s as a scholar, having

:57:15.:57:21.

done a degree in Canada. He went on to do a degree at Oxford and moved

:57:22.:57:30.

not long thereafter, and with the contributions he has made he is one

:57:31.:57:33.

of those people who could turn lessons into a place where the study

:57:34.:57:37.

of politics was one of his strengths, and it became one of the

:57:38.:57:41.

leading department, partly to do with Anthony King. He worked with

:57:42.:57:48.

Doctor Gerald Butler, also a doyen of election television, on the 1966

:57:49.:57:56.

election and he became part of the world of those academics who on the

:57:57.:58:00.

one hand are very serious academics, no doubt that Anthony King was a

:58:01.:58:04.

serious academic, but at the same time are also contributing to the

:58:05.:58:08.

world of journalism. Apart from his involvement with the BBC he was also

:58:09.:58:12.

the Daily Telegraph's psephologist the many, many years and wrote up

:58:13.:58:21.

monthly polls and weekly during the general election, said he was

:58:22.:58:24.

involved not just in broadcasting but also writing and that is how he

:58:25.:58:29.

came into that world because, like David Butler, he had that

:58:30.:58:33.

combination of talents. Do you remember his coverage well?

:58:34.:58:37.

Of course I do, and I think this is an opportunity for us to pay tribute

:58:38.:58:41.

and remember the importance of people like Anthony King, but not

:58:42.:58:47.

just him, who explain clearly to the public... Make it accessible. What

:58:48.:58:53.

lies behind the story, make it interesting, give it great depth.

:58:54.:58:57.

Well, John Curtice, thank you very much, I am sure you will miss him

:58:58.:59:01.

very much, thank you for coming onto the programme to talk about Anthony

:59:02.:59:06.

King, who has died, very sadly. Very sad, Professor Anthony King.

:59:07.:59:09.

The one O'Clock News is starting on BBC One, I will be back on BBC One

:59:10.:59:13.

tonight for the first This Week Of The Year.

:59:14.:59:19.

That's with Michael Portilo, Chris Leslie, Dr Saleyha Ahsan,

:59:20.:59:21.

Miranda Green and Paul McKenna from 11:45.

:59:22.:59:23.

And I am back here again at noon tomorrow with all the big

:59:24.:59:26.

If we don't do something, it's going to burst, and it'll kill him.

:59:27.:59:36.

It'd be good to get it over and done with

:59:37.:59:41.

There is a rumour, there is a rumour that they have a bed.

:59:42.:59:46.

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