Part 1 Election 2016: Scotland

Now let's join Huw Edwards in the BBC Election Night

studio with a look ahead to tonight's results programme.

We will be here from 11:45pm and we will be carrying on through the

night. After all, it is the biggest test of electoral opinion across the

UK before the next general election. We will have results from the

Scottish parliament, the assemblies in Wales and Northern Ireland, more

than 100 local councils in England and city mayors including the London

mayor. Viewers in Scotland and Wales will have their own coverage and we

should get some early results before midnight.

Election coverage for viewers in Scotland and Wales

Standby for the results of election 2016 and another dramatic night

Hello and welcome to BBC Scotland's election news centre.

We're live here in Glasgow and in every corner of Scotland,

with the results of the fifth election to the Scottish parliament.

We'll be first with news of who's in, who's out

Nicola Sturgeon's hoping to lead the SNP to an historic third term

in power and secure her own mandate as first minister.

Ruth Davidson's target is to overtake Labour

and make the Conservatives the main opposition.

Will Kezia Dugdale's party really finish behind the Tories or can

Labour win the race for second place and avoid its worst election

Patrick Harvie's hoping the Greens will surge into fourth place.

But not if Willie Rennie's Liberal Democrats can help it -

they're determined to avoid slipping into fifth.

With an EU referendum looming, UKIP's agenda has never

had a higher profile - but will that help them

These are just some of the stories we'll be looking out for tonight.

And with election bulletins, throughout the night -

results and developments of the night.

As the declarations begin to roll in the length and breadth

of the country, we'll also be keeping an eye on social media

as the conversation begins to get lively there.

And of course it's not just here that voters

This has been something of a super Thursday.

I'll be bringing you the latest from the race to become

the big picture in Wales and Northern Ireland

and what the trends are in the English council elections.

his braces and his latest box of tricks - Brian.

Glenn, I've covered a fair few elections in my time,

but when you have a political anorak as well as numerous pairs

of galluses, they're always interesting.

I'll be offering analysis, insights and assessment

of the results as they come in, of the personalities involved

and the policies on offer, with this dashboard of data

Now, we've had one or two big votes over the last couple of years,

and with every election, there's innovation,

David Henderson's on the team tonight, with some new technology

Glenn, this is how the Scottish parliament has looked

The SNP in yellow, holding the majority of seats.

The other opposition parties arranged around them.

We'll have lots of ways of telling that story.

We'll have debate, analysis, opinion and maybe even the odd laugh.

Especially in our new Election Cafe, where Fiona Stalker

In the election cafe we will be bringing Scotland's media, spin

doctors and young voters to give their reaction. We will be keeping

an eye to what you are saying on social media. So join in the

conversation by using the hash tag SP 16.

The election story unfolds at counting centres across the country.

We live from Shetland to Dumfries and almost everywhere in between. We

will hear from David Miller in Edinburgh but first to Glasgow with

Aileen Clarke at the Emirates arena. What are you hearing so far? I am

down with the counters and it will be a busy night for them. There are

eight constituency seats decided be a busy night for them. There are

here tonight. Last time round the SNP took five of them in what used

to be the absolute Bastian of the Labour vote. Everyone is wondering

to be the absolute Bastian of the if they can get a clean sweep. Can

they take all of the seats here, that is what everybody wants to

know. Remember, at the last Scottish Parliament election, that was before

the referendum. In the referendum, from here a year ago, and night that

chilled labour Hearts. Remember what happened? Every person that went on

to that stage that night at the Westminster elections, every person

that went up as a winner, was SNP. A complete wipe-out for Labour. Nicola

Sturgeon arrived and there were great scenes of joy. She called her

magnificent seven. You would be forgiven for calling Labour that

night, the miserable seven. That is why everybody is keen to see if the

SNP can do the same again. The indications are good, they have been

out and fighting hard and they have an incredible party machine. Nicola

Sturgeon will be here herself in a little while. That is her seat being

counted over there. We will hear from her later. Patrick Harvie for

the Greens, he is hoping to do better and Tommy Sheridan will be

here standing for Solidarity, possibly for the last time if his

wife has anything to do with it. But it is what will happen between the

SNP and Labour. If you like your politics laced with a bit of

pleasure and a bit of pain, I think this counter will deliver for you in

spades. Get the crisps in, we probably won't get a declaration

until around three a.m.. In the meantime, David Miller is in

Edinburgh. Good evening from the Royal Highland Centre in the

capital. We are just beside the main runway at Edinburgh airport. Just

behind me, we have liftoff, the first ballot rocks as have arrived

already. We will bring you the results from all six Edinburgh

constituencies and the Lothian region. We will be joined by some

big names during the course of the evening. Scottish Labour, Kezia

Dugdale and Ruth Davidson for the Scottish Conservatives are fighting

constituencies here in the capital. Dale has been out pounding the

streets in Edinburgh Eastern while Ruth Davidson has been focusing her

efforts on Edinburgh Central. Both those candidates also top of the

regional list for their respective parties. In terms of potential upset

this evening, two constituencies we should be watching out for,

Edinburgh Western and Edinburgh Southern. Southern has witnessed a

scrap between Tony Giuliani and the charismatic Lib Dem candidate, Alex

Cole-Hamilton. The Lib Dems are making great play of the

difficulties which have engulfed the local MP, Michelle Thomson, who has

resigned the SNP wit amidst a great deal of controversy. There has also

been mutterings about SNP performance in that constituency. So

the Lib Dems hopes are high. But we should also keep a close eye on

Edinburgh Southern. Edinburgh South, the only Westminster constituency

still held by Scottish Labour. The SNP's is defending a Holyrood

majority of just 693. A very tight. In terms of the Scottish Greens.

Alison Johnstone has been fighting Edinburgh Central. And another name,

the well-known land reform campaigner, Andy Wightman. He is

number two on the list. The Greens have taken two list seats in Lothian

in the past, so there is a precedent for success for them on that kind of

scale here. We will find out in the hours ahead, whether they pull that

off. Thank you, David. We will be back with them and around the

country throughout the night. We're joined tonight by an all-star

cast list of politicians. The former First Minister and SNP

Leader Alex Salmond joins us, former Leader of Scottish Labour

Johann Lamont will be giving the Liberal Democrats

is here to cast his eye on proceedings, and finally

Lord Andrew Dunlop, Under Secretary of State for Scotland

representing the Conservatives. Another former leader,

Sir Ming Campbell of the Liberal Democrats

is here to cast his eye This is the first time I have been

in a Glasgow studio since the regional elections of 1986. Every

other election since, I have been a candidate in my own count. You have

to regard me as a new boy tonight and be kind to me as the programme

goes on. I cannot guarantee that! But I will ask you first of all for

a prediction. Is it possible be SNP could finish with an overall

majority? It is said to have broken the system last time, can it happen

twice? It is possible, but not a foregone conclusion. I am amazed

looking at the coverage of this election, the assumption this can be

done for a second time. It is a huge ask and the reason is if you gain on

the swings, the constituency votes, you lose on the roundabouts and the

list vote. If it is possible that happens, it will be an extraordinary

results, it is extremely difficult to do in this system. Johann Lamont,

you manage to avoid being the leader at the time of an election, maybe

that is a relief, who knows? If Alex Salmond is right and the SNP finish

with an overall majority, what does that mean for Labour's prospects

tonight? I am naturally optimistic, so when we don't have any results in

an exit poll, it is difficult to say. The Labour Party fought a very

hard campaign, I was proud of people locally and proud of the

conversations we had on the doorsteps. I recognise if there is

an overall majority, it is a significant achievement for the SNP.

But it feels we have not got back to the place where we are talking about

the things that will make a difference to people's lives. There

will be a lot of change and people are experiencing that, but it is not

where the political debate is. These are pictures coming in from the

count in Clydebank where people are busy counting the votes and making

their way towards some of the earlier results of the evening. Just

before I bring in Andrew Dunlop or the Conservatives, Joanna Monts, the

Tories targeting Labour hoping to leapfrog your party and finish in

second place tonight. Any predictions on that? None

whatsoever. The idea that your aspiration is to be the opposition,

you want to be a strong opposition, when between 2007 and 2011, we

supported this man it belies what a stronger position is? Andrew Dunlop,

what is your own prediction on whether or not Ruth Davidson will

get her wish? We are looking forward to our best results since the

Scottish Parliament was set up. It was down to the positive campaign

Ruth Davidson has run. She has a clear plan for opposition. You need

strong opposition to get better government. She has sent a clear and

compelling message and one that is also credible. I think hopefully we

will see that rewarded tonight. These are live pictures from

Lerwick, where the Liberal Democrats are defending the constituency, part

of the country which has been a stronghold for them for many years.

On the point, Andrew Dunlop, that you won Le Mans made the Tories have

helped it will embolden the SNP by supporting them and helping them get

budgets through in the 2007, 22011 Parliament, what do you say about

that? We will work with people who have the proposals and we will

cooperate. But in the next Parliament, we want to hold the feet

of the government, the Scottish Government to the fire, to ensure

that instead of campaigning for another independence referendum,

they concentrate on governing and what matters to people. That is a

they concentrate on governing and better health service, better

schools and creating more jobs. Pramod sub but you will also support

them in keeping tax law and not spending on public services. David

McLetchie said... Former Conservative leader. IM sure we do

not want to refight the 2007-2011 Parliament. At the election in 2011,

having seen what happened in that parliament, the people of Scotland

decided to return the SNP with an overall majority, which with great

respect to Johann Lamont, is a rather more important verdict.

The only two constituency seats that the Liberal Democrats have, Shetland

and Orkney, will you keep those? My understanding is yes. I spoke to Jim

Wallace, the former member of Parliament, they were confident,

optimistic they would hold the seats. My attitude to these matters

is one of optimism tinted with realism. We have got to come from

quite a long way back. We have had an enormously good campaign with the

leadership of Willie Rennie, who has been outstanding, particularly in

the debates, he has to an extremely well. In the last ABC debate he was

the first person to get not just a round of applause but a shout of

approval -- BBC debate. Willie Rennie is standing in your

former neck of the woods in Fife north-east. How do you think he will

do there? He will do very well. fortnight ago. The 22-1 against the

Lib Dems, they are improving. Let us bring in Professor Nicola

McEwan, Fester of politics at the University of bed and rap, she will

be casting her expert by overdevelopment is -- Professor of

politics. The constituency results will be

key. Last time round, the SNP got 45% of the constituencies. Opinion

polls suggest that they may get a little more than that. We may know

before we even get the list vote if there will be an overall majority.

For the other parties, it will be the regional list vote which will be

key to determining who comes in second place. We will not know that

until much later on. Safety say that this has been the most competitive

list contest of any Holyrood election. Yes, particularly for the

Labour Party. In particular, in the early years of devolution they used

to do disproportionately well in the constituency contests, they did not

have to rely on the worst vote. It is very much changed days now. --

the list vote. These pictures are coming in from

Paisley, the count me. You can see the vote stacking up across that

part of Scotland. In terms of time the vote stacking up across that

is, hard to say when we would get the first results. Some point

between one o'clock and two o'clock, but we might be able to bring your

results between 12 o'clock and one o'clock.

Let us develop our coverage of the election and go to David Henderson.

He is standing by with his very fancy graphics.

What do you have foreigners? This promises to be a gripping contest.

Throughout the night, we will be telling the story from right in the

heart of the BBC's headquarters in Pacific key. For the last five

years, this has the state of the nation. This was his Scotland's

electoral map with after the last election. Blue for the Conservatives

in the south, red for Labour in Central Scotland, orange for the Lib

Dems in the Northern Isles, the rest of the country awash of yellow, with

the SNP dominating the scene. Let's look at that map with the same

results in a slightly different way. This is our hex map. This is all of

Scotland's constituencies, but they are all this inside. I'll be SNP

constituencies colour it yellow again? The people of Scotland also

choose 56 MSPs with the regional vote. Here is the breakdown of seats

from the last election, region by region. You can see the Greens

picked up seats, and Labour did better than they managed in the

constituency vote. Those two sets of results, the regionals and the

constituencies, let's see how they convert into seats at Holyrood. Add

them together, and you are the results from 2011. The SNP on 69,

Labour on 37, Tories on 15, Lib Dems on five, there were two greens and

one independent. The SNP with their noses well in France, and passed

that winning line of 65 seats, which gives a majority in parliament. But

those results are now just history. At this moment, no party has any

seats. The map is empty and waiting to be filled. You, the voters, write

the next chapter of Scotland's political history tonight. We will

be telling that story as it happens. No election night would be complete

without Brian and his latest toy. Top is through this. Thank you. This

is the dashboard. Rather than speed, mileage and fuel consumption, this

massive screen will gauge all the detail of the results as they come

in. I will try to steer you through is significant, what the important

results are, they are all important, but the ones that might determine

the character of the night. Here the chamber in 2011. 69 to the SNP. That

is the result in 2011, since then there have been various changes, a

couple of folk moving away from the SNP in protest over Nato. That is

the result. That is that outcome over which they are fighting

tonight. We will keep an eye on who has won individual constituencies,

we will have information about the voting share, that will tell us how

the night might pan out right in the very early hours of the morning. We

will tell you how that has changed since the last election. The

additional members will be absolutely key to the final make-up

of Holyrood. As we move along the dashboard, here is the electoral map

of Scotland, coloured in with party colours, the SNP taking most of the

constituencies, Labour red, the Conservatives and the two northern

areas of Orkney and Shetland for the Liberal Democrats. Here we have the

map in equal size, so you can see the balance of the results. Tonnes

eight -- tonnes of data at my fingertips.

Let us cross to Jackie Bird. Counting is going on at centres the

length and breadth of the country. There are 4 million registered

voters. We can see the boxes being emptied at Glasgow's Emirates

Stadium. Here are boxes arriving in Motherwell. Heading north, we have

pictures from what is happening in Kirkwall tonight. That will be

popping up soon. Former Labour leader Iain Gray at the Haddington

count. Not looking to confidence, perhaps I will tell you why in a

moment. We round when can we expect that first result? The best guess is

in the Rutherglen constituency. They that first result? The best guess is

were first to declare in 2011. The team have told us that they are

hoping to beat that this time, it could be as early as midnight. Since

elections for the current Scottish Parliament began, that seat has gone

into labour. James Kelly will sit. This is a real bellwether seat. It

could set the tone for the night for Labour if they do not retain that

seat. Elsewhere tonight, there are few seats to watch. Glasgow Pollok,

Johann Lamont is defending a majority with 623 votes. There has

been a battle royal ear. She is facing stiff competition from the

SNP's Humza Yousaf. Iain Gray won by just 151 votes in 2011, you can see

why it will be near waiting for him. Willie Rennie is hoping to take his

seat back for his party. They lost it last time round. The

Conservatives only hold three constituency seats, the one with the

smallest majority, of about 862 votes, is Galilee and Dumfries. --

Galloway and Dumfries. Let us take the cat Twitter. The

race for second place seems to be dominating already. The Sun

newspaper as saying the Conservatives will come second. Time

will tell. Nicola Sturgeon sent her first tweet of the night. Patrick

Harvie's thinks that his party's candidates and volunteers have

worked very hard and he thanked them for everything they have done to

support him. We are monitoring the hash tag #sp16 tonight.

Hugh Williams, at the Emirates Marina, confirming that other Labour

sources are saying that the party does not expect to win any Glasgow

constituency seats. Johann Lamont, that would mean you losing Glasgow

Pollok. That might be what we would expect. We fought very hard. We

continue to make this political argument. We recognise what the

polls are saying. The difference from 2011 is that we did not see

what was happening in 2011, that was a huge political failure. I managed

to hold onto me seat at that time, and I was immensely proud of team. I

remain as proud now and is committed to the same politics, but there is

not any point in pretending. On that broader point, that Labour will lose

the seats it has held that the last broader point, that Labour will lose

election in Glasgow, is that your expectation? It is my recognition of

where Paul stickers, -- the polls takers. We lost Glasgow in 2011,

recovered in 2012, then saw in 2015 how bad things were. The thing is

the extent to which we have begun to move on, people have rebuilt

confidence, we need to wait for the results. Alex Salmond, brief word on

that if it turns out to be true. It would be an extraordinary result if

it were true. We are taking nothing for granted. We have not even had

the first result. I was in Glasgow campaigning in the seats on Monday.

Clearly the SNP team are well organised and induce gastric, have

been campaigning strongly. But it is too early. -- in CZ Astec.

We will be crossing over to our collection cafe.

We will be giving you an alternative to the politicians. We are bringing

together journalists, bloggers, spin doctors, to react and cast an eye

over the campaign so far. What are you up to tonight?

We will be trying to keep busy. I am heading out are in some of the

counts are in Glasgow later. We have a lot of reporters out across

Scotland. Everything happening on TV, radio, social media, that will

come back into life page that we have on the website. And we have it

covered on social media, Twitter, snap chat. We just need some results

to start coming in. We're also working very closely with

our at BBC Radio Scotland. We will be asking how much of this campaign

was about personality politics. Who were the winners and losers on

social media? What was it with the increasingly bizarre photocalls with

party leaders? Are people as engaged as they were during the independence

referendum? This is about opinions. These people have and bucketloads.

We will have the generation 2016 with us overnight. You were very

engaged in the independence referendum, you still up for it?

Yes, we are very much up for it. It has been a very different campaign

to the independence referendum. People were talking about big ideas,

but this has been more about domestic politics and day-to-day

issues. When I have been campaigning for the Green Party people have been

really interested in the issues. The final thing is that you have

16-year-olds and 17-year-old sporting. Uncharted waters, who

knows what will happen. We will be sporting. Uncharted waters, who

hearing from generation 2016 on it, they probably have more stamina than

we have. Also keeping a close eye on social media, so if you want to join

in the conversation, it is #sp16. We are here live for the next ten

hours by which time we would hope to have at least most of the results.

Five years ago in 2011, Rutherglen. The first declaration. What are the

timing is looking like Reevel Alderson? This is difficult to say,

south Lanarkshire used to have a reputation for declaring very

quickly. In all elections, Scottish Parliament and general election. The

returning officer has come in. He is determined to make sure the results

are accurate over any speed. However, there are four

constituencies being counted here in East Kilbride. One of them is

Rutherglen, as you say. The indications say they might declare

roundabout midnight. The reason for that is, they are being counted and

they have two teams of counting that is, they are being counted and

Rutherglen boxes. The other is Clydesdale being counted, Avril

area. They will be coming from a long way. They will get the

Rutherglen count out of the way and then they can concentrate on

Clydesdale. They are expecting the Rutherglen counts will be declared

early. Will it be the first in Scotland? They say if they are in

the top five, they will be pleased. The keywords were the possibility of

a result around midnight. That would be earlier than I was indicating. We

will be back there for any developments. Last time around, some

people kept us waiting. We have to wait until 5pm the following day in

Fife. Ken McDonald is there. I suppose in preparation you have got

your sleeping bag? We are in the Michael would sport centre, so if it

does go on that long, we can go for a swim. We have three constituency

seats being counted, North East Fife, which is the rough equivalent

which does waiting. It will end rot first and then beyond that,

Kirkcaldy. Willie Rennie has put up a good game in trying to win Fife

north-east. Beyond that, we see another seven MSPs enthroned here,

because this is a regional counting centre and it will collate all the

results from these three constituencies and beyond, all the

way up. It is an enormous area. The uncharitable said it is the better

left over when they drew up all the other election regions. But it will

give you seven more MSPs. So tonight we get ten MSPs enthroned here.

give you seven more MSPs. So tonight Enthroned, indeed. Thanks very much

for the update. We look cover, not just the Scottish Parliament

elections but we'll keep an eye on developments in England, Wales and

Northern Ireland. Many local elections in England. Andy Burnham,

looking forward to the elections of the future. His spokesman saying he

is considering running as the mayor for Manchester. Right now, let's

stick with Holyrood, another one of the parts of Scotland with a habit

of keeping us waiting, up in the North in the Highlands. Craig

Anderson is in Dingwall, what is the story there? There will be no

change, because it will be a long night for everybody here at a

football academy in Dingwall, where the count is underway for three

Highlands constituencies, stretching from the Pentland Firth in the north

to the south of the Cairngorms and all the way across the West to the

Isle of Skye and the small Isles. There is a matter of the tally for

all eight of the Highlands and Islands constituency and that takes

in everything from Shetland in the north, down to the Argyll islands in

the West and then Murray in the east. It is a long way for ballot

boxes to travel to all these different counting centres. We are

not expect in the regional list to be declared until somewhere like

seven o'clock in the morning. So plenty of Coffey on hand here to

keep us awake until then. After all, it is the largest regional electoral

constituency in the country. It takes up something like half of

Scotland's total land mass. So we takes up something like half of

can let them off. There will be some new faces leaving the Highlands to

go to Holyrood, whatever happens tonight. Two of the three MSPs that

were elected on the North Highland Maignan, from Caithness down to

Inverness, two of those MSPs for the SNP resigned their seeds following

the last parliament. So even if the SNP is expected to retain those

seats, two of them will be debutants going to Holyrood for the very first

time. The two Tories are elected last time on the regional list, they

both retired from Holyrood as well. So if the Tories and Conservatives

retain those lists sees this in the Highlands and Islands there would be

two two conservatives as well. For the Liberal Democrats, Jamie Stone,

who resigned from Parliament before the last election, he has had the

last few years out, but has decided to throw his hat in the ring again.

So if he is elected for the Liberal Democrats, possibly on a personal

vote, as well as a party vote, he will be a new, old face joining

them. Let's not forget David Cockburn, sometimes controversial

MEP. He has pitched his hat into the ring to be elected on the regional

list for the Highlands and Islands. He is the only elected Ukip

parliamentarian in Scotland at the moment. He reckons Ukip have a good

chance of picking up a couple of regional seats on the list in the

selection and let's see if he can be one of the first to get elected to

the Scottish Parliament for Ukip. We will have to wait something like

eight hours until we know that. It is a marathon, not a sprint, Pace

yourself. At the other end of the country, we are hearing from

colleagues at ITV border, suggesting Labour's Elaine Murray will lose

Dumfriesshire and you might be surprised to learn that is Labour's

safest seat at the moment in terms of the number of votes Elaine Murray

one by last time around. The suggestion is there could be a close

tie between the SNP's Joan McAlpine under the Conservative candidate,

Oliver Mundell. Let's go further south. Plenty of elections taking

place across the UK, the Northern Ireland assembly elections will be

counted tomorrow. But overnight counting is taking place in a number

of English local authorities and for the Welsh assembly. We will hear

from James Williams in Cardiff, but the Welsh assembly. We will hear

first to Exeter. Martin is there. A the Welsh assembly. We will hear

big electoral test for Jeremy Corbyn? Absolutely. Only three

elections in the south-west, but they are the only three areas where

Labour has strength in the south-west. This one in accident is

the real citadel, the one of only three where Labour has an absolute

majority. It is the former seat of Ben Bradshaw. In the general

election he increased his vote by 16%. This place under Ben Bradshaw,

is a monument to new Labour. Gained the seat in the landslide of 1997. I

will give you an idea of the scale the seat in the landslide of 1997. I

of achievement, throughout the rest of the 20th century except for four

years, this place had a Conservative MP. But Ben Bradshaw has different

views on the way of the direction the Labour Party should be heading

than his leader, Jeremy Corbyn. Thanks very much for that update.

Let's cross to James Williams in Cardiff. What is the emerging

picture for the Welsh assembly, James?

Not sure he can hear us. Might have to come back to James Williams in a

few moments, to catch up on the Welsh assembly election contest and

ring you up today with that. It's been quite a five years at Holyrood.

Let's remind ourselves of the current state of play.

This is the debating chamber of the Scottish Parliament, the 129 members

elected to Mike will be sworn in next week. 73 will represent

constituencies down to Berwickshire next week. 73 will represent

in the Borders. The number was chosen to match the number of

Westminster constituencies when the pollen was created in 1999. This

Orkney and Shetland became two separate seats. There are 56 MSPs

elected by proportional representation. There are seven in

age of eight regions across Scotland. The Highlands and Islands,

North East Scotland, Mid Scotland and Fife, Central Scotland, Glasgow,

Lothian, West Scotland and South Scotland. So you have eight MSPs in

total. The journalists who watch proceedings from this press gallery

know that over the last five years, there have been a number of changes

caused by death, defections and even a court case. At the time of this

solution, were just 128 MSPs. Margo MacDonald as an was literally

irreplaceable. But our starting point tonight is the results of the

2011 election. The SNP became the first party to win an overall

majority with 69 seats. Labour were on 37 and the Conservatives were

third with 15. The Liberal Democrats took five seats and there were two

Greens and Margo was the sole independent. All games tonight will

be calculated from this baseline. Only one of the leaders who fought

that election is still standing at the head of the party this time

around. See if you can answer

that quiz question. And let's take a look

at the challenges He's a Member of the

European parliament. He will be hoping Ukip's high

profile in the EU referendum campaign might make this a

breakthrough moment for them. There's the Scottish

Greens' Patrick Harvie. One of two Greens elected

to the last parliament. Now during the second Parliament,

back in 2003, the party Can they improve on the two seats

last time. As for Willie Rennie, the Lib Dems were part of the Coalition

Government, but they have been punished by voters in recent times.

It's the country beginning to forgive them for going into

coalition with Conservatives at Westminster, or is it too early for

that? Speaking of the Tories, Ruth Davidson's party is trying to

capitalise on her personal appeal to voters during this campaign, and she

has made no secret of her aim. She wants to lead the largest opposition

party at Holyrood. Can they beat Labour into second place tonight?

Kezia Dugdale has only been at the helm for nine months. The big

question for her is this. Can she kick-start Labour's recovery after

it was all but wiped out in the general election and left just one

MP in Scotland. Or, will the party's decline continue. As for Nicola

Sturgeon, this is her first chance to get her own mandate as First

Minister. She took on the top job just after the referendum when Alex

Salmond stood down. Since then she has led her party to a thumping

victory in last year's general election. The SNP winning 56 out of

59 seats. Those other potential winners and losers tonight. The

answer to my quiz question, the only leader who was in charge at the last

election is the man in green, Patrick Harvie. Let's get more on

some of the political battle grounds that the leaders' troops have been

fighting for, with Brian Taylor. This is an unusual election in many.

I cannot remember an election where one of the major parties, the

Conservatives, said her ambition was to come second. There has not been a

lot of talk of target seats, many of the parties just want to hang on to

what they have. The battle ground perhaps coming on the list. But

there are some very key contests in the constituencies. Here is a double

bill from Glasgow Anniesland. Bill Butler was the previous MSP. He lost

out to Bill Kidd in 2011. Look at the majority, relatively tight, 855.

I beg your pardon, that is the wrong result. The size of the majority was

seven on that particular occasion. Let us move on to East Lothian...

There seems to be a problem with this.

We will come back to Brian Taylor for more on the results last time in

We will come back to Brian Taylor the parties are targeting this time

around. Let's pick up with political once again. This lecture comes a

year after the extraordinary result we saw in the UK general election

for Scotland. At that point almost all Liberal Democrat 's, all but

one, were swept away on a rising tide. Anything that suggests to you

that things are different this time around? It is one year on, and many

of the things that Nick Clegg and the coalition were able to prevent

his begun to happen under the Conservatives. History will be much

kinder to Nick Clegg. He will be Conservatives. History will be much

vindicated over welfare, standing in the way of the so-called snooper's

charter. A lot will depend on how well we do this evening to show that

we are on the way back. It will not be a matter of a few months are few

years, it will probably be tenuous before we get back to where we were

before. But we are well used to the long march -- ten years. We will go

back to what we are good at, localism, community politics. We

will stand a very good chance of restoring ourselves to where we were

before. Anecdotal lead during the campaign, Andrew Dunlop, the

Conservatives said that in areas where they have traditionally got

support, in areas where they have first past the post eats, -- seat

is, it was holding up well. I will not speculate on the constituency

seats. That is part of the fun. Yes, I will resist the temptation. We

have been polling very well above where we were in 2011, both in

constituency and the regional list vote. We are building on a very

strong track record in the last parliament. In the last Parliament,

Ruth Davidson established herself as the effective opposition, and now

what we are really gunning for this time round is to be the official

opposition. I have high hopes that we can make real progress.

No matter how popular she has become in Scottish politics, isn't she

still much more popular than the Conservatives brand? Doesn't it

remain tarnished? When you have a popular leader, you

put that popular leader front and centre. She connects with people,

she gets to the people, and you should play to your strengths, which

is what we have done this campaign. I think she is the one leader of a

party who quite clearly Campbell told the tool with Nicola Sturgeon.

That is what people are looking for in the next Parliament. -- can go

toe to toe with Nicola Sturgeon. How do you think Kezia Dugdale has

done as somebody who has not had very much time to get into the role

ahead of a crucial and difficult election for Labour? I think she has

done extremely well. Simply describing somebody as being really

effective in opposition does not mean it is actually the case. Kezia

Dugdale has led the way and some of the big political issues we confront

as a country. The real Bierley broke into political debate out in this

election, but people are talking about waiting times and hospitals,

elderly parents, education, and how we will fund it. Kezia Dugdale is

willing and able to make the case that if you have high quality public

services, you have to fund them. That debate was closed down by the

SNP and the Conservatives. That is profoundly depressing at a time when

we could actually have a conversation about how to use the

new powers of the Scottish Parliament.

Opinion polls are all that we have to go on. Approval ratings for party

leaders. Ruth Davidson, -6, Kezia Dugdale -9, Nicola Sturgeon plus 27.

There seems to be the gap between her approval ratings and the rest. I

am talking about the real world and the bravery that Kezia Dugdale has

shown... Excellence. Good. Labour make the assumption that the SNP is

unpopular on Keith -- key issues facing the country. I did not

interrupt you. We have plus approval ratings. There is no point in

opposition parties running against what they say is the SNP's bad

record when the people Scotland, the people that matter, the people

voting today, give the SNP such solid approval ratings. And people

have such confidence in Nicola Sturgeon. Nobody is denying that.

Nobody recognises any more than I do what Nicola Sturgeon has been able

to do. All I have said is that Kezia Dugdale has said that now is the

time, in the Scottish Parliament, with the powers that it now has, to

time, in the Scottish Parliament, talk about the big questions.

We are going to Cardiff to talk to James Williams for the story of the

Welsh Assembly elections. What do you think is the emerging picture?

One of the big questions in Scotland is whether Labour will be pushed

into third place. It could not be more different here in Wales. Wales

is still a Labour country and they're currently the biggest party

in the assembly, have been since the start of devolution, and he

currently holds 30 the seats. They are expecting to have a bad night,

the drop seats. Their worst was in 2007, is the equal that or do worse,

then the knives will be out for Carwyn Jones. Which of the other

opposition parties will benefit most? The Welsh Conservatives are

hoping to continue a run which has seen them increase their number of

seats in every single collection to date. They were the official

opposition in the last assembly, with 14 seats. But will internal

party strife over the EU referendum hamper them? Or will be billed on

the momentum from the general election, where the unexpectedly

snatched seats from Labour. Other Labour and Tory marginals to keep an

eye on, Cardiff North, the Vale of Glamorgan, and Wrexham. As for Plaid

Cymru, quite frankly they can only make enviously at the sister party,

the SNP, in Scotland. Plaid Cymru are in third place as it stands here

in Wales, and only potentially Wokington moved into second place,

calling themselves the Government in waiting -- potentially moving into

second place. Can there be some inroads into additional Labour

strongholds? As for the Liberal Democrats, quite frankly, it is a

question of survival. How many of the five seats will be returned

tonight? This could be their toughest contest, they are briefing.

We are expecting at least some Ukip members for the very first time.

Anywhere between five and eight to be included on the original top up

list. That would be a great shake-up, quite frankly. We are

expecting hung assembly, we are expecting Welsh Labour to be the

biggest party, but will be have enough seats to go to one, or will

be be able to form a coalition? We will have to wait and see. Word

from the BBC's Ross Hawkins, who is looking at the English local

Government elections. He is saying that Labour is losing seats in

English council elections. Jeremy Corbyn needs to win places like

Corby and Northampton if it is to be a successful night for Labour. At

this stage, it looks like the Labour Party is losing seats in England.

Let's go back to the Scottish Parliament election, and top four

with Brian Taylor, who has been casting his eye over a number of

seats that will be of interest to the SNP.

With trepidation, given the last the SNP.

time that we went to this machine. The question I ask on this occasion,

is can the party which won the last Holyrood election, do even better

this time? To do so, the SNP would need to win some of the seats that

they failed to take in 2011. One of the biggest scalps, my apologies,

because she is on the panel, would be Johann Lamont, in Glasgow Pollok.

I was covering that constituency, and incredible fight between Johann

Lamont and Humza Yousaf. A very tight majority there. Motherwell and

Wishaw. These to be another Labour Leader gear. That was Jack

McConnell. Look at the majority. Clare Adamson, she's hoping this

time the post John Pentland. -- to oust. The Motherwell constituency

was the very first ever SNP MP. He held it only for a few months during

wartime election. One of the seats that the party would want to hold

onto. Another is Caithness, Sutherland and Ross. The new

contender for the SNP is Gail Ross, defending a pretty healthy majority.

The Liberal Democrats, fighting from second. He wants a to Holyrood. If

we look at the electron map, every constituency, the whole of the of

Scotland, voted SNP on the constituencies, they will still

manage to take a seat and list -- the whole of the North East of

Scotland. Let's find out whether they can

sweep the board again. Graham Stuart is in Aberdeenshire. But first,

Stephen Duff is in the city of Aberdeen.

The ballot box is streaming in here at the Robert Gordon University

sports hall. Three seats up for grabs, the SNP the last election and

it hoped to win them again. The voters of Aberdeen Donside were

tested in a by-election, the SNP winning that reasonably well. The

main battle ground has been Aberdeen Central, which the SNP took from

Labour with just several hundred votes in 2011. The big issue there

has been Aberdeen Royal Infirmary, and whether it will be a major

trauma centre. It took until just two days ago, when Nicola Sturgeon

visited, to see without the tube IT that it would be a major, centre. --

without dubiety. Last time out Labour won three seats. Probably

because of their poor performance in the constituency vote. They will be

hoping the world onto them. The Conservatives will be hoping to turn

to into the, and the SNP broke the system by winning the constituency

seats in the North East of Scotland region last time around and winning

a list seat. The funny story about that is that the SNP that was

elected to the list did not expect to be elected and turned up in his

jumper and jeans and ended up on the platform. The co-convenor is top of

the list. Hopeful of getting a seat on the list as well. That adds up to

more than the seven seats, they will not get what they are hoping for.

more than the seven seats, they will Counts in Aberdeen city are known

more than the seven seats, they will more for the efficient the rather

than speed. For 30 AM on words for the constituency seats, and the West

probably between seven o'clock and eight o'clock -- for 30 AM.

Three strong SNP St seats here in Aberdeenshire. One of the seats,

Aberdeen show East, is of reticular interest to Alex Salmond. Until now

he has held that seat with a thumping majority -- of particular

interest. Gillian Martin has made some

disparaging comments about the royal family, the EU and Alex Salmond

himself, referring to him as smug. Aberdeenshire has been strong Lib

Dem territory. If there is going to be any Lib Dem revival tonight,

there will be some signs of it here. Christine Jardine is contesting

Aberdeenshire East. Aberdeenshire West has more traditionally been in

Lib Dem hands, only in 2011 the SNP lost that. I'm sure is another SNP

majority last time in the region of 14,000 votes. The SNP very confident

tonight of these three seats. It will be interesting to see if they

do win, what majorities they will get. Aberdeenshire East should

declare around 4:30 a.m.. Aberdeenshire West and the rest, it

will be five a.m., so it will be a long night.

Thanks to Graham and Stephen in Aberdeen. Let's go to Glasgow and

talk with the Labour leader of Glasgow City Council, a former MSP

and minister, Frank McAfee T. We have been discussing that if Labour

lose their remaining seats in Glasgow, is that your expectation?

We have expected a tough election campaign and tonight, it is looking

like we could lose the remaining constituency seats. It is a

disappointing night for me because I have been a colleague of those

individuals who have worked incredibly hard for their area. We

are looking at an election where we need to continue to rebuild. It

sounds like the party is going backwards at this election, rather

than rebuilding anything? Kezia Dugdale has identified we want to

rebuild the party for the next generation. Last year's results were

cataclysmic for Scottish Labour and we need to pick ourselves up from

that. What is disappointing is we need to pick ourselves up from

turnout across the city of Glasgow, so I am concerned about the

Democratic process. We don't know if there is as many people

participating as we thought. We know the job ahead is to regain the trust

of the people of Scotland and Glasgow and that is the challenge

for us. Thanks for joining us live from the Emirates arena. Let's hear

what the and her guests are making of things so far.

what the and her guests are making Good evening. We will be providing

you with the alternative to the politicians. We will be asking the

thoughts of the campaign itself. Looking over some of the high points

and some of the low points and finding out what the newspapers are

saying. We have our guests, Eamon O'Neill and Stuart Cosgrove.

Welcome. What is it about Scottish politicians there is the

increasingly bizarre nature of these photocalls? In all truth, I don't

have a clue why they do this. Whoever these geniuses are battling

it is good idea to stick Ruth Davidson on a buffalo and this will

connect with the Scottish electorate, I don't know who they

are and pays their wages, but it should be examined more closely. It

is the never ending quest of spin doctors, special advisers, call them

what you like, to normalise politicians. I don't think it is a

good ring to do or unattainable thing to do. They need to go back to

the drawing board and think up a new blueprint. I think we have seen a

failure in terms of these photocalls. All the political

parties have called their leaders out on a particular day and what

ever the theme is they are dealing with, asked them to do the most

preposterous things. It has ended up, in a puerile way, trivialising

some of the issues we have been dealing with. We are in this

situation where the photocall has virtually failed. It doesn't matter

if it is fornicating pigs, buffaloes or whatever, but the reality is the

concept has failed and I would rather the politician talk about

their message rather than behave like a clown. Do the voters feel

cheated, do they want to hear more about policy? The voters feel

disconnected from the process. They are a lot more savvy and smart in

terms of understanding what they are meant to think. I think they know

they are being handled, albeit through the media. They fully

understand this process, and that is why you will see a reasonable

turnout this evening, it won't be the same energy or the engagement of

the independence referendum in 2014, saw things happen. People react and

by not turning up, vote with their feet. The media need to rethink the

by not turning up, vote with their strategy and the hand is presenting

the politicians to the media, to come up with a 2016 strategy and

then instead of one which would look exactly the same in 1996. So often

this election we have seen vaulting the shark jumping the buffalo, call

it what you will. It is a failure in which the way they planned the day.

They often talk about serious things, education, nursery,

long-term care for the elderly, why do they feel the need to dress up

like fools? It doesn't work. One of the things that has succeeded really

well in this campaign, has been the big reads in the newspapers, like

the Times, Peter Ross has done excellent interviews, in almost an

the Times, Peter Ross has done old-fashioned way with the leaders

of the parties. He has given new stories from them and encounters,

which other parts of the media haven't managed to touch on. He

mentioned the spoofing, but when you talk about the tank commander, which

has been a phenomenon of this campaign, why is it so popular? He

is a popular comedian and well-known to the public. In some respects, the

bite-size working of it has worked perfectly in the era of the

internets and what ever was an Internet commission that found its

way onto television. I would advocate a note of caution, because

was it dangerous television? No, but was it biting satire? No, but was it

funny in places? Yes. We shouldn't get carried away with the fact that

because we had some funny clips, that means we have had a profoundly

because we had some funny clips, interesting election. We have not. I

would have liked Barry to be more ruthless with the questioning, it

felt tamer times. I enjoyed it, it was funny but it wasn't dangerous

satire. Social media is such a massive part of campaigners, who are

satire. Social media is such a the winners, who are the losers? Who

controlled it and who didn't? I thought about this before I came in

this evening. It wasn't the independence referendum where you

could say there was an identifiable growth on the online alternative

media sector, if you want to put it that way. I didn't see that engaging

in the same way. It was down to the fact it was a foregone conclusion

who was going to win. The rest of the parties went up to speed, if you

put it broadly speaking, the yes movement and the SNP were coming out

of the independence referendum with the great momentum behind them. The

other parties had to catch up online and they haven't. In comparison to

that, it is a difficult comparison to draw, because it is rare that

happens. They just didn't manage to hit those heights. Thank you both

very much, we will put some of your points about the photocalls to the

spin doctors. We are interested in what you are saying on social media.

Let us know what you're saying about the campaign, what you think about

the politics and use #SP16. Let's cross to Jackie Bird with the

latest headlines. So far, the speculation surrounds the race for

second place. Suggestions are emerging from the Glasgow count

means Labour may have lost all the constituency seats. I stress, it is

only speculation, that the Labour leader of Glasgow City Council gave

his reaction. We have expected a tough election campaign and tonight,

looking at the early samples, it is looking like we could lose the

remaining constituency seats. It is a disappointing night for me because

I have been a colleague of those individuals who have worked

incredibly hard for their area. We are looking at an election where we

need to continue to rebuild. Is it are looking at an election where we

conceivable Labour could do so badly? They could come third to the

Conservatives. Let's look at the fortunes of those two parties over

the last four Scottish Parliament elections. We are looking at the red

and the blue lines. 1999, Donald Djourou is in charge becomes the

First Minister. Labour take 56 seats and enter into coalition with the

Lib Dems. The SNP become the largest opposition party and the

Conservatives only have 18 MSPs. By 2003, Jack McConnell is in charge

for Labour. The number of MSPs they return falls down to 50 and it is

another coalition with the Lib Dems. The Conservatives stayed the same on

18. We see a big change, the 2007 elections and amid the chaos of the

voting and counting fiasco you may recall, the SNP emerges the largest

party and form a minority government. Labour, down again, 46

seats. The Conservatives dropping one down to 17. 2011 and the SNP

increased their lead, spectacularly and form a majority government and

get a mandate for an independence referendum. Labour drop even

further, 37 MSPs. The Conservatives are down to 15. So 2016, what will

happen? Is the SNP on course for a larger majority? Can Labour hang

onto second place or will the red line of their decline cross the

blue, putting the party they used to joke weighed their votes in some

parts of Scotland, rather than them, into third place? On social media,

let's see what they are talking about. Our reporter says the Lib

Dems sources are confident the party can hold Orkney and Shetland. The

BBC's Andrew Thomson, he is tweeting a picture of ballot boxes. That is

David Cockburn, who arrived in a plumber's van. We can see the votes

going from rats they... No, said that the next time. I wonder if we

need to count the votes at all because looking at the front pages,

the Daily Mail seems to have the results already.

They always have to take a gamble with their first editions, but less

so in this election than some others. Let's bring in our political

Campbell. Sir Menzies Campbell, news from your party colleagues in Orkney

and Shetland, that there is an expectation you will hold there.

Perhaps you might run the SNP close in Edinburgh West? That is what we

talked about when we opened the programme. Interestingly, the

turnout in Orkney was up to 63%, having been slightly less than 50 in

2011. If, as appears to be the case, we don't have the final result, we

have held the seat, I think it is a very good indication in the way in

which we are travelling in the course of this evening. Can I go

back to a point that comes out of the previous discussion. We cannot

speculate because we don't know what the results are. But we do have the

programme and the way in which the Scottish Government has had itself.

On areas like health and education, there is no doubt it has failed to

come up to scratch. That is now acknowledged. Even Nicola Sturgeon

said in the course of her courage, if you want good public services,

you have to pay for them. The only way to pay for them is by increasing

tax and take -- taxation. John Sweeney turned out every

opportunity. 1p for education, 500 million for early years education

and restoring the 150,000 places in further education, which the SNP

took away. On taxation, we do not want to turn

Scotland the highest taxed part of the UK. The economic situation in

Scotland is fragile and we need competitive economy to fund those

Scotland is fragile and we need public services. We get a

Scotland is fragile and we need competitive economy when we have

people with the skills to meet the challenges of modern employment.

This was supposed to be the tax election and it was much talked

about. There are clear differences between the parties. You think,

Johann Lamont, what will the native people when they put their crosses

on their ballot papers, or are there other politics, broader politics at

play? I think the conversation about taxation is a slightly longer term

one. If I were Nicola Sturgeon, and I have already recognised what she

has achieved, why is she so timid on the question of taxation? Unlike any

left of centre politician in a generation, which is 20 years, she

would have the Opposition agreeing with her. She would have Liberal

Democrats and Labour saying, you are right, we will support you. Let us

have a conversation about how we can win the political argument for

taxation. She closed it down. She would rather continue with an

argument which said, I will tax economy can work with high public

services. Should your party have been bolder on taxation? We have had

the election, we are about to have the results, there is no point in

refighting the campaign. Five years ago, Tavish Scott, as leader of the

Liberal Democrats, was proposing a cut in the basic rate of income tax.

That volatility in the liberal position is why they are in the

position they are. As far as Johann Lamont is concerned, Nicola Sturgeon

put forward a proposal to increase tax yield by ?2 billion over the

course of the parliament, that is entirely sensible. In March, 22nd,

the SNP divided the House of Commons against the Chancellor's proposal.

The Labour Party sat on their hands and abstained. If the Liberals go on

these gymnastics from election two election, and the Labour Party:

these gymnastics from North to South of the border, you can hardly expect

able to disagree with a coherent approach of the SNP. Three parties

that are in a bidding war as to who can... He does not agree because

they are all feeling degrees of hitting tax up. We are the one party

which is saying, you should not make Scotland the highest tax part of the

UK. Business leaders are saying we are on a knife edge and we have got

to create the conditions in which we can grow the economy, create jobs,

and that we generate the resources to fund public services.

What I was trying to get too was whether this was a factor people

making up their minds in the selection. That will wait to next

discussion. Thank you for the moment. A tough

night potentially for the Labour Party, as we have been discussing.

Ryan Taylor is here. What seats are they most worried about -- Brian

Taylor. They want to hold the Conservatives

down into third place. But look at some seats, Cowdenbeath, in the

by-election Alex Rowley on a fairly narrow majority. Against him was

Annabelle Ewing, from the Ewing dynasty. We will be watching that

one very closely indeed. Alex Rowley is a key strategist in the party.

Across in Dunfermline, again it was a by-election, Bill Walker took the

seat last time. The party lost following the court case which saw

him convicted of domestic violence. Candle Labour MSP be -- candle

Labour MSP be successful again? Edinburgh Southern was held on by

the Labour Party. Jim Eadie is the NSP. Can he hold off a challenge

from Daniel Johnson? The SNP are fairly confident they can. That is

one worth watching, to see whether Labour can replicate the UK general

election result in that constituency.

What prospects for a Labour, defending a number of

constituencies? Former leader Iain Gray is under pressure in East

Lothian. But we go live tomorrow tarmac to Motherwell. -- we go live

to Motherwell. It is not looking good for a Labour

here. These to joke about weighing the vote here in Lanarkshire rather

than counting it. If Labour is to have any hope of holding onto some

first past the post constituencies, then the Lanarkshire seats must hold

some hope. But things are looking poor for the party. Five seats are

going to be counted here tonight in Motherwell. Three of them were held

by Labour back in 2011. The other two went to the SNP. All those three

Labour seats were held by relatively small majorities, though. Let's take

a look at his defending what. Motherwell and Wishaw used to be

Jack McConnell's seat. It was held by a majority of just under 600 by

John Pentland in 2011. He is facing a very real fight to hold that seat.

In Uddingston and Bellshill, Michael McMahon, his majority last time

round was just under 700. Coatbridge and Chryston, Elaine Smith, she had

the best of the three Labour majorities but by no means safe.

Three tiny Labour majorities relative to what they used to have

in what used to be an absolute Labour Party fortress. Since 2011 we

have seen the SNP take all the Westminster seats in the area, and

it was also an area which voted yes on the independence referendum. You

can see why the SNP has reason to be optimistic here. Alex Neil the

cabinet minister has a majority of around 2000 in Airdrie and Shotts.

Jamie Hepburn also has a majority. He was looking fairly relaxed, but

there is not such a relaxed look on Labour Party faces this evening. As

far as the timescale is concerned, we are expecting the first of the

constituency declarations around two o'clock. We are looking at sometime

around six o'clock before we get the regional list vote which is being

counted here. That is the senior in Motherwell this evening. Now we will

join my colleague in Haddington. Good evening. Short time ago the

former Scottish Labour leader Iain Gray arrived, he was looking fairly

nervous and he is good -- has good cause to be looking worried because

there is real possibility that he will lose his seat year, one that he

has held since 2007. At the Scottish election in 2011 he won by just 151

votes, with the SNP snapping at his heels. That was a disastrous night

for Labour, which led to him resigning as Scottish Labour leader.

It looks like tonight might be even more disastrous for Labour. Here in

East Lothian, it has been traditionally a Labour area in

Holyrood and Westminster, but that changed last year when the SNP take

the seat from Labour, from the Westminster constituency of East

Lothian, a seat which Labour had held for the best part of 50 years.

The SNP tonight I really hope in that they can mirror that victory at

the Holyrood elections as well. The man that they have standing for the

SNP is called DJ Johnston-Smith. He is a local man, from just down the

road in Prestonpans. He was chair of the Yes campaign here in East

Lothian and was also the party agent for George Kerevan, who take that

Westminster East Lothian seat from for George Kerevan, who take that

Labour for the SNP. But if Iain Gray loses tonight, his constituency, he

still has a chance of getting back to Holyrood because he is number one

on the Labour Party list for the South of Scotland region, East

Lothian as part of the South Scotland region. If DJ

Johnston-Smith loses tonight, he has plenty of things he can do. He has

run pubs for 15 years and was apparently Scottish pub personality

of the year and was run up in the UK best high of the year competition as

well. He is looking like he is quite comfortable tonight. The SNP are

looking quite pleased with themselves, the Labour Party are

looking quite nervous. The counting of the postal votes is now finished

and all of ballot boxes are in the polling stations are owned East

Lothian. We are hoping for a declaration at around 3:30am. The

suites are just being passed round now to keep us all going until then.

We will bring you any more news. Iain Gray may well be looking

nervous about his prospects in that constituency. He has taken out an

insurance policy, he is the lead candidate on the South of Scotland

list vote. The same goes for MSPs like Johann Lamont, if she was the

lose the Glasgow Pollok seat she is second on the list for the Glasgow

region and stands a very good chance of remaining in Parliament as a

regional MSP as opposed to a constituency representative.

That is quite a big change in approach for Labour at the

selection. It is a source of innocent merriment for those of us

who have followed politics for well to see Labour so keen to win seats

on the West. There was top of them being backed or MSPs or even

second-class by the Labour Party. But those days are gone and Labour

is now dependent, to some extent, perhaps to a large extent, on the

list. The figures here in Glasgow, Johann Lamont and Anas Sarwar are

numbers one and two. North East Scotland, Jenny Marra, Lewis

Macdonald, one and two. Jackie Baillie in the West of Scotland.

There are whole pile of MSPs, if they do not linear constituencies,

they will be dependent upon the list. There is nothing wrong with

that, it is the system that was designed in the Scottish Parliament

to be correct if upon the distortions of the first past the

post Parliamentary system. It was deliberately designed by Labour with

that in mind. It is just a little bit amusing for those of us who take

a slightly ironic view of things to go back to 1999 and a rather

different perspective. Could you talk a little bit more about how the

system works, and what way and to talk a little bit more about how the

what extent the proportional regional list two balance out the

Parliament after the constituency vote iron? The regional list vote is

crucial to determining the overall shape of the Parliament. The idea

here is that that should be that the share of the vote that rugby is

reflected in Parliament is reflected in the share of the seats --

properly. That should be a cause for concern for the Labour Party,

because in past elections they have done better in terms of their vote

because in past elections they have share in the constituencies than

they have done in the list. If that is repeated this time around, you

will receive fewer top-up seats, fewer additional members, and that

will have an overall detrimental effect on the overall seats in

parliament, given that Labour are predicted to win fewer seats in the

constituencies. I want to talk about turnout. We are

getting mixed messages. Frank Maccabi T suggested that turnout was

down. There are suggestions that turnout I don't in places like

Rutherglen, from the count in that part of the country. But from

Orkney, and we have confirmed turnout figure of 62%, which is

considerably up on 2011. It might be that people are comparing different

elections, as opposed to comparing this with the last Holyrood vote.

Anything you are picking up that can clarify? Those figures in Orkney are

intriguing. I was in Orkney during the campaign in a blizzard in late

spring. Nonetheless, it that blizzard one could discern that that

is a really fascinating contest that is going on. A real blood fight

between the incumbent MSP and the insurgent. It has been an incredible

fight. You have Orkney, a constituency that had the biggest no

vote in the referendum, and yet you have the serious prospect of the SNP

taking constituency against the incumbent Liberal Democrat in an

area where they have in Liberal Democrat since the very early days.

It has been an amazing contest. Perhaps that has energised the poor

dear. -- people bear. I want to get out and about around

the country but put this contest in perspective because we have been

spoiled by high turnout recently. You would expect the turnout be

lower than what we had in the general election last year but we

look at previous Scottish parliament elections. It has never reached 67%.

Forgot to that skill, it would suggest voter participation increase

is continuing. Let us go to the West Coast and more

pressure for some well-known faces. Fiona Walker is in Clydebank and

what is the story there? We have got to hot tickets. One is

Clydebank and Milngavie and the other is Dumbarton. That's probably

what you are alluding to because Dumbarton is Jackie Baillie's seat.

A big name in Scottish Labour, potential leader at one part won

point. She is one of those ones to watch. You are also mentioning this

insurance policy of being top of the list. That is what she has done.

Although it would be massively significant if she lost her

constituency seat, there is every chance we will see her back at

Holyrood cos she's top of the liberal list for the West of

Scotland. Clydebank and Milngavie is also clear. Clydebank historically

was red Clydebank but it's turned also clear. Clydebank historically

yellow in 2011. Again, as the SNP took parts of the country that time

around, you read expect, looking at the bigger picture tonight and

Marines on the floor behind me, that that SNP margin will be increased.

It is interesting. Nobody is looking that comfortable. Scottish politics

has been turned on its head like in other parts of the country. Nobody

is taking anything as a given. In fact, people are looking quite

nervous, checking papers one by one. This is before the real lists are

piling up. We would expect the first announcements, probably the

Clydebank and Milngavie constituency, probably after 2am. In

the meantime, the heads are down and watching carefully. We will no go to

Greenock. Good evening from the leisure centre

here. This is usually an ice skating rink. Fear not because it has been

covered up and know funds from me about politicians potentially

skating on thin ice. The ballot boxes arrived here from 11:30pm.

There were comments and concerns about turnout in this constituency

being very low. That has yet to be confirmed. Certainly that seems to

be a genuine belief from some people high up in speaking to. This is a

Labour heartland. Duncan Mick Newell who is standing down as an MSP has

held the seat since the Scottish parliament was created in 1999. If

the SNP, as they think they're going to, when this seat, that would be

some story indeed. They are a very confident bunch. They are speaking a

good game. One of their list candidates has told me that they are

confident of a solid result. We will watch with interest on that one.

Duncan McNeil is standing down and that, coupled with the SNP's

popularity, means that Stuart MacGill in is very confidence that

he can win this seat at a third time of asking -- Stewart Milne. He

celebrates his birthday tomorrow. In 2011 he lost out but last time

around they were getting closer and closer and he only lost by 511

votes. The Labour candidate is a new face. She has not stood as an MSP

before but she is known very locally around this constituency. She is

hoping her local knowledge will count for something. It is unlikely

that the Conservatives are the lab demo -- Lib Dems will make much in

route. I was speaking to the constituency candidate Graeme

Brooks. He said if he won a few more thoughts on last time he would be

happy. John Watson is the Liberal Democrats candidate and he, along

with the other candidates, are also on the regional list as well. In

terms of the declaration, we think around about the 30 AM -- 3:30am.

terms of the declaration, we think The regional list declaration will

take place sometime after that. Some way to go here. From the freezing

ice rink behind me, I will hand you to my colleague Sally McNair.

I am at another ice rink and am happy to say that it was removed on

Sunday and it is perfectly warm here. The big names here includes

Derek Mackay. The SNP convener. He took the seat in 2011 with a fairly

comfortable majority 1500 and nobody expects him to lose tonight. One

name that we will not be seeing the results tomorrow morning is that of

Labour stalwart Hugh Henry at the age of 64. He is stepping down. He

is one of the largest Labour majorities in Scotland so Councillor

Paul O'Kane has a fairly safe bet. One of the first results we should

get is from Paisley. That is an interesting one because it is

currently held by the SMP's George Adam. We will have to wait and see

how things go tonight. We expect the first results BN

around three 30 AM and then a flurry of results at 4:30am.

We have two new panellists. Polling McNeil has a Labour candidate that

the selection and a former member of the Scottish for Glasgow Kelvin. And

Alan Smith who is the SNP European representative. A word on the count

in the Borders. At least one of them, we are hearing from our

reporter. We're hearing that Ettrick, Roxburgh and Berwickshire

is likely to be held. David Mandel was asked if he was confident about

his party's specs in that seat and he said he was. We will keep you

up-to-date on that. We will also bring you up-to-date figures on

up-to-date on that. We will also turnout as they come in. We were

touching on that earlier. Let me bring in our new guests. It does

indeed seem to be shaping up as a good night the SNP how good?

Hope long is a piece of string at the moment? We are confident. We

have said it before and must see it again, to repeat the result from

last round was already an exceptional results to get that for

a historic third term would be incredible. We will see what happens

but cautiously optimistic. There is the Deputy First Minister

John Swinney. Not sure if he looks cautiously optimistic. If he does

not save your -- secured the constituency vote, given the

messages the other parties are sent out about that any opinion falling

that suggested the SNP not doing quite as well on the list, could

that be difficult to get over that magic line?

We will see. That was why we were for throws in promoting the board

votes message. -- vociferous. It is not a second preference. It is a

different fought for a different set of politicians.

We will see how successful are message has been. Has Labour had a

proper second vote strategy for the selection? You have only stood on

the list for the Glasgow region, your fourth placed on that to be

elected for Labour. I've put in the effort required?

I think we've put in the effort. If you mean a party that has benefited

for so long from the constituency vote then it is quite a seismic

shift to change your strategy on to quite a different system. Alan is

right. There is still a bit of confusion about what the second vote

actually is. To be fair, I think it has worked for all political parties

to get that. We would say the SNP is probably a wasted vote on the less

and they would say otherwise. It depends how you think the night will

pan out. If the SNP as predicted are going to have a good night and it

will not get much on the list. It depends how you want to view

this. Some candidates tonight... Bad news for them is good news for

you. I have colleagues that I worked with

for a long time and I do not know what would hold for them. That is

the system. It is designed to balance up a party of the majority

so there is a decent number in the opposition.

Let us cross live to Glenrothes where we can speak with Thomas

Docherty, a former Labour MP who lost the seat in 2015 but is seeking

re-election as a list candidates. Reflecting back on the campaign that

Labour has fought, how do you think it has gone?

I think we can begin by putting into context the general election result

last year in Scotland was Labour's worst performance since 1918. We

only polled 24.3% of the vote. All the indications tonight are that we

have gone further backwards from that and I do not even think the

records show the result as bad as this in the hundred and ten plus

years of the Labour Party in Scotland. It is quite clear we have

had a bad night. Is that because the SNP are so

strong at the moment or does Labour have to take some responsibility for

a result like that if that is where you end up and for the campaign

message that you have used to try and shore up Labour support?

The indications tonight and from the opinion polls is that we are

fighting with the Conservative Party for second place. The swing that we

have seen tonight has been away from Labour and towards the Conservative

Party and the indications that we are seeing are something like seven

out of ten, perhaps three quarters of Scots, who have gone to the polls

tonight have voted for a centre or centre-right party. The reality is

that if you stand on a platform that promises to raise taxes for

everybody earning over ?20,000, and unambiguously socialist platform

that calls for the scrapping of Triton amongst other things, and

with the UK reader that we have, there is a correlation with the fact

that are vote is going down. Possibly falling to one in five. And

the Conservative vote at the same time going up. Someone once

described the famous 1883 manifestos the longest suicide note in history.

The manifesto we stayed on his self a Malaysian for dummies. -- self

Malaysian. On Labour's tax policy, Eddie

appeasing a penny on income tax and introducing a top rate -- was

Kezia Dugdale deserves a huge amount of credit for taking on the argument

around austerity and the choices he made about public services. But all

of the polling shows, and experience shows us, that voters believe that

somebody else should pay more in tax, so the 50% tax rate, bashing

tax havens, of course that is popular electoral league, but the

opinion polls show time and time again that something like two thirds

of Scots did not believe that the should pay more in tax, and you have

to respect that. The tax policy, among other things, has not

succeeded electorally. The fact that the Conservative Artie is going up,

and I think it is fair to say that they have a strong chance of

and I think it is fair to say that overtaking us, certainly in this

region and some others, the Labour Party needs to have a debate about

our policy on tax, it needs to have a debate much more about the

direction of travel for the party. In a word, given what you have said

and the criticisms you have made, do you have faith in the party's

leadership in Scotland and the UK? Anybody who thinks that Kezia

Dugdale should resign should go and lie down in a dark room for sometime

because we have gone through something like six leaders in eight

years. Kezia Dugdale has fought a courageous and dignified campaign

and it has the stay as her leadership, and that rebuilding has

to remain. This is not the time for moving against Jeremy Corbyn but we

need to have a debate. Jeremy Corbyn has played very badly as parts of

Scotland there are some parts where he has been a small help. But the

reality is that we are losing perhaps one in five voters. On the

doorstep, time and time again, Jeremy Corbyn, our tax policy,

Trident, has come up. We have to have the debate, if we want to be

relevant again, do not want to go through a night like this again, we

relevant again, do not want to go have to debate what on earth the

Labour Party is trying to achieve. You have started that debate right

now. Thomas Docherty, former Labour MP. I think his phrase will be

quoted back throughout the night. As well as the race for whomever will

become First Minister, there are plenty of contests throughout the

country. This election makes for some

fascinating local battles between some well-known faces. So many of

them could deliver an upset. Let's take a quick trip around Scotland.

We start down in the south-west corner in Galloway and western

We start down in the south-west Freese. This was once and SNP seat,

but has been a conservative stronghold for 13 years. The former

Presiding Officer is retiring. Finlay Carson is standing for the

Tories. He stayed for -- he stood for Westminster last year but was

swept away by the SNP tsunami. He is up against Aileen McLeod, who needs

a swing of less than 2% to win. Let's head North to Glasgow, to Mary

Helen Springburn. It's a return bout between Patricia Ferguson and Bob

Doris. She has represented merely held since 1999. He is currently a

Glasgow list MSP. This is the third time in a row that they have fought

each other for this seat. Will it be third time lucky for Bob Doris.

Right around the coast to the Northern Isles, to Shetland,

Scotland's most northerly constituency. The Northern Isles are

traditional redoubt of the Liberal Democrats. This seat is held by

Tavish Scott. Danus Skene is hoping to overturn that result. At the

general election he almost beat Alistair Carmichael. Can you conquer

another Lib Dem to when Shetland for the nationalist? It is a big

challenge, he needs an 18% swing for victory. Let's head South. Back to

the mainland. Back to the Granite city. Hard battle in Aberdeen

Central. The SNP 's Kevin Stewart has represented this seat since

2011. He is standing against the man he beat, the veteran Labour MSP

Lewis Macdonald, who had held the seat and is 1999. It was a close

contest last time around. Labour need a swing of just over 1% to take

it back. The voters know them both very well indeed, so who will be

choose? Let's travel down the East very well indeed, so who will be

Coast, down to Dunfermline, seat Brian Taylor mentioned a short time

ago. One of the biggest towns in Fife, and a contest between two

politicians. The incumbent is Labour's Cara Hilton, the daughter

of another former Labour MSP. She won the seat from the NSP -- SNP in

a by-election three years ago, during the life of the last

Parliament. Now she is up against Shirley-Anne Somerville, the SNP's

Parliament. Now she is up against Deputy Chief Executive. Based on

that by-election result, the SNP leader 6% swing to take this seat.

What is odd about this contest is that it was won by the SNP at the

last Scottish election. So if they win it tonight it will count

officially as a held seat for them. It will not be a win. Lots of

fascinating contest, lots of big personalities, all of them will make

a difference to the overall results. We will have news from Dunfermline

in a moment. First, we cross the East Kilbride.

I am hearing from SNP activists here about the Rutherglen count, which is

held at the moment by James Kelly for a that they have in fact taken

the seat with about 55% of the vote. That is based on exit polls carried

out by the SNP. I do have a confirmed figure for the turnout in

Rutherglen. It is 54.5%. That is up from the 47% of 2011. That's quite

interesting in terms of the increased turnout. It is not as high

as the general election last year, or the referendum the year before.

But it shows that the voting in the Scottish Parliament elections is

getting back to healthy level. While you have been talking, says

Lanarkshire Council, responsible for that count, has tweeted to say that

adjudication of doubtful ballot papers is happening, which is good

news, because it means that they will soon be announcing the

Rutherglen constituency result. That may well be our first result of the

evening. It did not come before 12 o'clock as might have hoped, but it

sounds like it is coming soon. I do not know how long we will have to

wait for a Fife results, but let us go to Glenrothes.

Good evening. We are in Glenrothes One. I think you heard from

Glenrothes One earlier. The codes that are going on here at the

moment, they are still verifying that are going on here at the

them, Cowdenbeath and on farmland. Both of them are really interesting

seats. Relatively new constituencies. -- Dunfermline. What

many people would have thought until constituencies. -- Dunfermline. What

a few years ago would be Labour heartland. They have been taken are

held by Labour in by-elections recently. Really interesting target

seats. Alex Rowley in Cowdenbeath took the seat in 2014 at the death

of Helen Eadie, the well-respected Labour MSP who had been in the seat.

Obviously a very prominent figure in the Labour Party, former leader of

Fife Council, former general secretary of the Labour Party. Close

adviser to Gordon Brown and Kezia Dugdale's Deputy. A big the ten next

target for the SNP here. And also that one seat that they failed to

win in mid-Scotland. You can see why it is a big target. Dunfermline,

Cara Hilton, in 2013 she took that seat. It was a by-election triggered

by the resignation of Bill Walker, who was convicted of domestic abuse,

that was an SNP seat which went to Cara Hilton, who is Labour. Again,

target seats cause it is all the time Labour has taken a seat in a

by-election from the SNP. You can see why they are real target seats

and of real interest to the SNP. They are not complacent about it,

they are wheeling out the big guns to target those two seats. They have

Annabelle Ewing, from the famous Scottish poet call family, and also

Shirley-Anne Somerville, Deputy chief executive of the SNP. -- the

famous political family. We will see whether they have what it takes to

take those seats. An interesting mixture of old and new, change and

stability, and I suppose we will get a result eventually.

I just want to get a quick word from Brian Taylor. A few moments ago we

heard from Thomas Docherty of Labour, he said that it is

self-immolation for dummies for a That is an incredible statement. A

very senior figure in the party, a former MP, regarded as a player,

strategist, he knows how to win votes for the most part unless the

tide is completely against them. He is prepared to say that the party's

campaign has been a dead loss. He was prepared to make a distinction

between the Scottish leadership and Jeremy Corbyn. He was plainly saying

the fight against Mr card and will resume the minute the European

referendums openly -- Jeremy Corbyn. He was also saying that anybody who

goes against Kezia Dugdale and Alex Rowley needs they are -- their head

goes against Kezia Dugdale and Alex examined. They have fought a binary

track. They have been trying to win every single vote at every single

seat, and the leadership has been trying to shore up their own

position. They know that there has to be another period of

introspection by Labour, yes, another one. It will follow these

elections. Thomas Docherty is trying to nail down the nature of the

policies, left and right, socialist versus alternative perspectives from

policies, left and right, socialist the Labour Party.

Back to our panel. Andrew Dunlop, for the Conservatives, another thing

Thomas Docherty was saying was that Labour was losing support to your

party. In some parts of the country there is more of a close fight

between the two than others. I think there is more of a close fight

the difference between the Scottish Conservatives and Labour in this

the difference between the Scottish election is that we are absolutely

clear what we stand for. One of Labour's the problems is it is not

clear what they stand for. Not a representative sample, but speaking

to the cab driver who brought me year, we were talking about the

election, he said that. We do not know what Labour stands for any

longer. What we are seeing is a battle for the soul of the Labour

Party. There is division and that is what really crucifies the party,

whether it is on Trident, whether it is on tax, whether it is even on

whether it is on Trident, whether it defending the union. This idea that

Labour candidates can go out and campaign for independence. It is no

longer clear what the Labour Party stands for, and that is a real

problem for them in this election. And yet, in this election, Kezia

Dugdale, on every interview occasion, at every opportunity, said

Labour stood for putting up taxes to raise additional revenue to stop the

cuts. What could be clearer than that?

The problem as she was also fighting against the attitude to Jeremy

Corbyn. Andy Burnham was defeated candidate for the Labour leadership

and is generally regarded as being a playwright. If people like

haemorrhagic now saying they will not be bothered but the fight and

will call off someone else, that is an additional dimension to the

problems that Labour has. As Thomas Docherty was seeing, on the 24th of

June, the effort to replace Jeremy Corbyn will begin. How successful

that will be will be problematic because he was elected on the

extraordinary support of the vast a membership. Join for three quid and

you can afford for the leader. Anyone who tries to remove them will

find themselves undoubtably at odds with the membership in general. All

that means is that this letter will get bigger.

Your party leader, Tim Farron, came once. The Conservative leader did

not make it. Surely the selection compared to all the others has had

the least involvement from UK politicians in the campaign. Is that

a big change and if so why? You are right to distinguish Tim

Farron from others because he has been coming for six months. It is

not a question of avoiding responsibilities, anything but. If

you see to David Cameron not to come north and then Jeremy Corbyn not

come north, that is different to what you would have expected in the

past. I remember John Major coming when I was trying to hold a seat.

They just haven't been there this time.

It may also be a reflection of the fact that Scottish politics is

different from United Kingdom politics and what carries with an

impetus in the rest of the reality kingdom does not necessarily carry

it in Scotland. This is the consequence of

devolution. This is an election about the Scottish parliament. It is

not David Cameron's name on the ballot paper. It is quite right that

Ruth Davidson should lead our campaign and that is what she has

done. You would agree that it is a change

of approach. I concentrated on you to the cause I know you're moving

on. Perhaps will see you later in the evening. Right now I want to

catch up with Jackie Bird and the headlines so far.