Boris Nemtsov - Russian Opposition Leader and Strobe Talbott - Deputy US Secretary of State (1994-2001) HARDtalk

include 100 Years of Solitude and Love in the Time of Cholera. You are

up to date. Now on BBC News, it is HARDtalk. Welcome to HARDtalk.

Ukraine, to borrow a phrase from Vladimir Putin, is on the edge of an

abyss. The confrontation PVT of government and pro`Russian forces in

the East threatens Ukraine's very existence. Who bears responsibility

and who is now calling the shots? I'm joined by two guest from

Washington, former Secretary of State Strobe Talbott, and from Tel

Aviv, Russian opposition leader, Boris Nemstov. Has the Russian

President comprehensively outmanoeuvred his enemies?

Strobe Talbott in Washington, DC and Boris Nemstov Intel IVF, welcome

both of you to HARDtalk. `` in Tel Aviv. Strobe Talbott, I will start

with you. Right now, as the Ukraine drama unfolds, it looks like

President Putin is on the front foot, the one player who is acting

rather than reacting. Would you agree? Yes. But he is acting in a

way that is ultimately bad for his own country, not to mention bad for

world peace. Do you think he really understands the scale of what he is

doing? No. I think he is essentially a highly emotional risk taking

tactician. He is not a grand strategist. Yes, he appears to be

and in fact in `` in many ways he is, holding the cards in a very

deadly game, but that he is playing it day to day and I think he has...

People around him encouraging him in this direction and we have to hope

in due course, because of sanctions and reactions on the part of the

outside world and particularly the West, he will rethink, or at least

they will rethink and put it on him. Boris Nemstov, I turn to you. Strobe

Talbott gives us the perspective of a senior American diplomat who dealt

with Putin and his government from outside. You, of course, deal with

Putin from inside. You have been a long`time political opponent of

Vladimir Putin. Are you surprised at the decisiveness, the ruthlessness

with which Putin has acted over the last several months in Ukraine?

First of all, I want to tell that his main goal is to keep power in

Russia and to strengthen his power inside the country. Tactically, he

won. During the last seven years his popularity dropped from 75% to 40%.

But, after occupation and annexation of Crimea, and his popularity inside

the country goes up and up and now he has more than 80%. This is

tactic. I am not sure he wants to protect Russian people in Crimea and

eastern Ukraine, this is a cynical lie. Nobody touched Russian people

in Ukraine and eastern parts of Ukraine, in Crimea and in the centre

of the country. I think, strategically, he looks like a total

loser. Russian economy based mainly on export of oil and gas, mainly to

Europe and it is very easy to predict what is happening in the

future. I am sure that Europeans will do everything to reduce the

dependence from Putin gas and oil and the only way for Putin is to

sell oil and gas to China. Putin looks like a Chinese spy. The only

chance for him to survive and support Russian economy is to sell,

for cheap prices, very cheap prices, Russian gas and oil to

China. You both raised big issues, ranging from diplomatic strategy to

economic strategy and I want to pursue those through the course of

the interview. Before we get that I want to concentrate on one issue

which is much more a tactical detail, but nonetheless, very

important. Is it clear in your minds, that Vladimir Putin is

already using his intelligence and military asset inside eastern

Ukraine's that is the allegation coming from Kiev, Washington and

other capitals. Where is the evidence to back that up? Let me

start with you Strobe Talbott. I don't think it is an arguable

proposition. There is massive evidence, photographic and

otherwise, that is concrete, that I think makes it almost a delusion to

wonder if Putin is going to invade Ukraine. He has invaded Ukraine.

Just as he moved Russian troops with their insignia taken off their

uniforms into Crimea and used other assets that were already in Crimea

to soften that up for annexation, he is doing the same thing in Donetsk

and other regions. Remember, there is a fraught intimacy between these

two countries. Ostensibly, and in the eyes of the world and under

international law, Ukraine is an independent country. However, Putin

has scoffed at that idea, as have other Russians, and he is making

full use, both of what he can move across the border, without actually

having to move tanks and the whole invasion force, and also assets that

he has there in that part of eastern Ukraine. Let me ask this, why didn't

the West, let's talk about the US, let's talk about NATO, why didn't

the US understand Putin's mindset's a mindset which says, you know

what, Russia has a legitimate sphere of influence that goes far beyond

Russia's own borders. Let's talk it a Eurasian `` let's call it a

Eurasian sphere. In 2009, we saw what Putin believed to be Russia's

interest projected beyond the border. Why has the US and NATO

being taken so surprised `` by such surprise? First of all, we remember

with the wisdom of hindsight about what happened when Russia moved in

to Georgia back in 2008. There were significant differences there. The

Russians, essentially, provoked the Georgian President into provoking

them, giving them a flimsy but usable excuse. Also, when Russia

moved into Georgia, it did not annex XP two on claims that were in

question. Neither of which, by the way, were dominated by Russian

populations. They did not make those two enclaves into extensions of the

Russian state itself. That said, with the wisdom of hindsight, the

invasion of Georgia in 2008 was a trial run to see if the Westwood

react with sustained and effective sanctions `` the West would react.

The West has missed red Putin and underestimated his ambitions and

intentions for years `` miss read. Let me go to my second point. I

think Putin was surprised by what he ended up deciding to do. Boris might

have another view on this and he certainly knows Putin in his country

much better than I do, but my guess is that when he was presiding over

his moment of glory in the Sochi Winter Olympics, he wasn't saying,

I'm going from Sochi to Moscow to order the annexation of Crimea, he

was gobsmacked and utterly shocked I what happened with the overthrow of

the Yanukovych regime in Ukraine. Remember, Putin's overall means of

dealing with peripheral states, leaving aside China, and I love what

Boris said about him being a Chinese spy, that will get headlines

somewhere in the world, but all the other peripheral states, Putin wants

to keep them as vassal state of the Russian state. He thought he had

that we'd Ukraine, and then of course came the people power that

overthrew Yanukovych, and that is when he decided. Thank you for that

Strobe Talbott. Boris Nemstov, I want to quote some of your own words

that you have used in the recent past. You said, if one does not

punch Vladimir Putin in the mouth, he will continue to act like a thug.

Is it your contention that Western powers, including Strobe Talbott's

government in Washington, DC haven't understood that? Putin believes that

Europeans are very much dependent on Russian energy resources and that is

why Germany and other countries need to respond on aggression and

occupation and annexation. It happens to be true, so full that for

very good reason. I believe that the long`term perspective is negative

for Putin, because it is easy to predict what is happening in the gas

market in Europe. I'm sure the monopolisation and competition from

Qatar and, in the future, exports from America, shale gas from Norway

and so on, I am sure Europeans will do everything to avoid dependence on

Putin. It is very clear. I am sure the West will do everything...

(CROSSTALK) you are saying that Europeans, it is true, are guided by

certain values, but at the same time they are not ready to make any

sacrifices. That was you just a few days ago. The next point, Putin

believes that Americans have no real political will. Not to implement

real sanctions against Putin. `` will to implement. He believes the

American administration is very weak, has no idea how to push him

very seriously. The American economy has a lot of albums, better set of

the budget and so on. And, the Americans have no idea how to stop

aggression `` a lot of problems. That is why he feels himself quite

comfortable because Europeans depend on his energy and the American

administration is not so song to protect the West and east's

interest. I'm struggling to see where is wrong. I think that

American administration is weak now, as far as relationship with Putin is

concerned. I am not sure that such kind of policy will be continued,

because there is public opinion in America, Europe, everywhere, and if

no one. Him, he will occupy not only Ukraine, but after that maybe Baltic

states, maybe Caucasus states, and maybe Kazakhstan. I don't think such

behaviour will be accepted in the west `` West. Let's turn to Strobe

Talbott, because one thing you know pretty well is that Washington

politics when it comes to international affairs. Thomas

Freeman, commentator of some renown in the New York Times, said the

fundamental question is, is the West is serious about standing up to

Putinism and backing the Ukrainian government. What is the answer? I

know my own country but I don't know the future. I understand what Horace

has said about anxiety. By the way, it is not just among Russians, but

some of us in the West as well, about whether the US and it west

European allies are up to, first of all recognising how the world has

changed as a result of what Putin has done in Crimea and is now doing

in Ukraine. I think this is going to be a testing point for President

Obama's legacy. He made a strong speech in Brussels on all of this.

He has yet to use the pulpit here in the US. Putin, in particular, has a

Russian quality. It is true in the past of him often playing his hand.

He is so cocky and sure of himself and flagrant in what he is doing, I

think he is, and I certainly hope, the effect is going to be, that he

galvanises the attention and responses of the West, notably in

the US. You talk about Obama in Brussels, one thing I remember about

him in Brussels is that he sent the clear signal that he believed

Ukraine could not be and should not be a member of NATO. Isn't NATO and

indeed the EU in Ukraine's position in NATO at the heart of this crisis?

If there was the position where everyone acknowledged Ukraine would

not be part of the NATO military alliance and also that Ukraine would

accept a federalisation, then Moscow would have what it wanted, Ukraine

would be a unified state and everybody, frankly, could go home at

it happier, couldn't they? The President did not rule out the

prospect of NATO membership for Ukraine or for that matter, any

other state. I want to get to Boris Nemtsov in a second. But Strobe

Talbott, I have to pick up something you just that. You indicated that

you the right, at some point, to join NATO. Isn't this issue of NATO

at the very hard of the unfolding crisis? I want to go back to the

words of one of the great architect of American post World War II

foreign policy, George Kennan. Back in 1998, gave this warning. He said

that NATO was eastward expansion was the beginning of a new Cold War. The

Russians, he said, will gradually react to it adversely. We are making

a tragic mistake. And there was no reason for this. Surely, it is time

to learn the lessons of those mistakes. You are involved in those

mistakes. Well, I don't agree it was a mistake. In some ways, the current

situation, dangerous as it is, is an indication of the decision to expand

NATO. A while back, Boris was talking about the possibility that

Britain would stay on a roll, he would not only basically bring

Ukraine back under the suppression of Moscow by that he would invade,

at least part of the Baltic states. I would suppose that that that is

not going to happen in the Baltic states. Not least because all three

of them are now members of NATO. And NATO... It indicates one of the

reasons for expanding NATO which was a hedge against Russia Breaking Bad

in the future. Also the expansion of NATO narrowed what was otherwise a

security vacuum that would have included all of the former countries

of the Warsaw Pact as well as the former republics of the USSR if NATO

had not offered membership to those countries. Remember, it was for a

lot of post`Cold War purposes. Vladimir Putin has given another

reason for NATO to expand which is there will have to be an element of

containment. That doesn't mean it is a today issue, it means we should

not close the door on NATO expansion. George Kennan was against

the founding of NATO. He was against the creation and existence of NATO.

He was a great prophet but he was not infallible. Boris Nemtsov, I

want to dig deeper into what is happening in Russia today. You told

me that you acknowledge that Vladimir Putin is enjoying

unparalleled popularity. He is 80% in the polls today. Hasn't

everything that has happened, the annexation of Crimea, what is

happening right now in Eastern Ukraine, hasn't it provided more

proof of his ability to use nationalism, maybe even call it

nearly imperialism to strengthen his own position and it has revealed the

true weakness again of your Russian opposition movement. Unfortunately,

you are right. After the Crimean annexation, we had huge changes

inside the country. What we had before, we had typical corrupted

authoritarian regime. With political prisoners but it was not so strong

pressure to civil society fools at what I mean, Pigeon `` Vladimir

Putin. Now, if you look at what has happened inside the country, strong

pressure to absolutely unpolitical figures, for example Russian

singers, Russian writers, there is pressure in creased and this is

absolutely new. It looks like transformation from authoritarian

style to a real dictatorship. Everybody who is in the opposition

has huge risk to be in jail, including me. What is more sad story

is that not only politicians are real independent persons look the

same risks. Sorry to interrupted but I just thinking of a reality that

you have to live with and that is that Vladimir Putin could very well

be in power in the Kremlin until what is it, Twenty20 for. That is

the reality that is a prediction. Let Boris speak. This is my

prediction, you are right. In my biography very well. I want to tell

you that he wants to be the president for life. Especially,

after what has happened in Ukraine and the Olympics. White is a vis?

You went on to say, in my opinion the west will survive what is the

reimposition of an Iron Curtain. For now, I cannot tell you whether

Russia will survive it. Seems to me that right now, Vladimir Putin can

survey the scene and be very confident that he is going to

survive it. Can't he? Well, let look what happened with Russian economy

and what is happening inside. His discussion and his rhetoric about

federalisation of Ukraine. He was to get Eastern Ukraine and organise

annexation of Eastern Ukraine, not only Crimea. He wants to sell

Russian energy to China and he wants to rebuild his economy from trade

with the west to trade with China. This is his main strategy. I believe

that this is a huge mistake, strategic mistake. Because I am sure

that China is not so happy to buy for $400 Russian gas and Dubai oil

for international prices. I am sure the Chinese will press him very much

to reduce prices and to reduce incomes of cash to the Russian

economy. I am sure that the Russian currency will continue to depreciate

and economic problems will arise. His popularity now is really more

than 80% but I am sure that two years later, we will discuss what is

happening the Vladimir Putin economy. I see that economy will be

in very bad shape. Boris Nemtsov, thanks for that. We are almost out

of time. Boris Nemtsov believes the economy will be booted `` B

Pigeon's Achilles' heel. What is going to be Russia's fate. Given

what happens today in Ukraine, how to you seek Russia in ten years? I

see Vladimir Putin's policies being catastrophic for Russia. Because

Putinism seems to be the order of the day, it does not mean it is

forever. I think he will pass from the scene and I think people like

Boris Nemtsov are going to be the representatives of Russia in the

future. Well, as Boris Nemtsov said, we can reconvene in two or three

years and see whether those pictures will come true. For now, Strobe

Talbott in Washington, Boris Nemtsov in Tel Aviv, thank you for being on

HARDtalk. For many, the long Easter weekend

has now got under way but what are the weather prospects? For Good

Friday and also Saturday, the weather is looking fair and most of

us was the sunshine and mainly dry weather. However, it goes on a

downward spiral and by Sunday across parts of