Sam Rainsy HARDtalk

Welcome to HARDtalk - I'm Sarah Montague.

The UN, US, and Europe, all say they are worried

about what's going on in Cambodia.

More than a dozen opposition figures are in prison.

The party's vice president hasn't left their headquarters in four

months for fear of being arrested.

And the opposition leader Sam Rainsy - my guest today -

fled the country to avoid jail.

They want to replace Prime Minister Hun Sen,

who has been in power for more than 30 years,

and whom they claim has rigged past elections.

They have threatened mass demonstrations

if the intimidation continues.

But can their leader make a difference to life in Cambodia

when he's in self-imposed exile in Europe?

Sam Rainsy, welcome to HARDtalk.

Sam Rainsy, welcome to HARDtalk.

Thank you.

Do you want to see mass demonstrations across Cambodia?

No, it would be the last resort.

We would prefer to engage in negotiation with the government

in order to reach a peaceful resolution to the current crisis.

And when do you decide that you've reached the last resort?

When our parliamentarians are kept in jail, more are arrested,

more intimidation, more threats, and possibly more killings.

So we're not there yet, but you are not...

You are at the moment boycotting the National Assembly.

There has been some suggestion that you will go back.

Is the boycott over?

No, as long as our parliamentary immunity is not respected.

I'm talking about National Assembly members from the opposition.

As long as even our physical security is not guaranteed,

it will be very difficult for us to resume our normal work.

So the boycott of the National Assembly continues, regardless

of what some people have said.

Not least some of your own, senior members of your party.

Son Chhay said that the CNPR would return to the Assembly to promote

dialogue with the government.

We keep some kind of dialogue, even though it is rather

fruitless dialogue.

But we continue to meet at the level of technical committees,

but not at the plenary sessions.

So the boycott continues.

Nobody in your party is arguing that you should go back into the National

Assembly?

Yes, when it comes to plenary national sessions of

the National Assembly, we are not going to take part

as long as there is no comprehensive solution to the crisis.

But you will know that Hun Sen, the Prime Minister, has said

of the demonstrations, "You can never threaten us

with the demonstrations.

If I ever enter into such negotiations, I would be

nothing short of a dog."

He makes the point that the only venue for talks is

the National Assembly, but since you have walked away,

there is nowhere else to meet.

Yes, but in the past when we were at the National Assembly,

he did not do anything to help us to fulfil our duty as elected

members of the National Assembly.

On the contrary, he let his henchmen attack us, beat us, some have

been sent to hospital.

He also created charges, politically motivated charges,

to arrest a National Assembly member, a senator, and threatening

many others with arrest.

So you are not going to take part in the National Assembly,

you are not calling for mass demonstration.

What changes?

We look forward to the next elections.

Regional, local election next year, and national election

the following year.

This is the only chance for Cambodia to achieve a democratic transition.

So we call for all friends of Cambodia to support

the democratic process, meaning the holding of free and fair

elections in one to two years.

You, though, went to Tunisia a couple of years ago

to study their revolution, and you described it

as an inspiration for the whole world, especially countries under

dictatorships such as Cambodia, awaiting a "Lotus Revolution"

with the same historical result.

Have you changed your mind about that?

No, I still believe in a peaceful solution to the crisis,

and I still believe that in the end the will of the people will prevail.

Because in Tunisia, in Cambodia, in many parts of the world,

we have the same ingredients for a peaceful change.

Because the population is very young...

But what happened in Tunisia was a revolution, not waiting

for elections for a change of power.

Because there were no elections in Tunisia at that time,

but in Cambodia we have the chance to take part in elections

in the very near future.

So this is a real and rare opportunity.

So you're confident, are you, that as a result of the reforms

that the Prime Minister has undertaken of the electoral rules,

the elections next year and the year after will be fair?

It will be better than the previous elections.

In 2013, in spite of massive irregularities, the opposition came

neck and neck with the ruling party.

But this time, with the formation of a new electoral commission,

more balanced in its composition and more credible, we believe

that the election will be better, it will be more credible,

and therefore it will lead to credible results.

It's strange though, because here you are,

the Leader of the Opposition, and there are more

than a dozen opposition figures who are in prison.

We have the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights expressing concern

about the escalating atmosphere of intimidation of opposition

politicians, supporters, civil society and peaceful demonstrators.

The US House Foreign Affairs Committee has approved a resolution

calling for Hun Sen, the Prime Minister, to end

harassment and intimidation.

The European Parliament has adopted a resolution deploring the worsening

climate for opposition politicians.

And you are saying here, "Look, it's going to be OK."

Yes, I am confident, as much as Hun Sen is panicking.

The prospects of free and fair elections, better elections,

next year and the following year, make Hun Sen very afraid.

It is why he is trying to derail the election process.

He has adopted a strategy of violence, of provocation,

in order for him to suspend or postpone the election.

On the contrary, the democratic opposition wants that

election to take place.

Yet here you are, the two of you, and you have been leader

of various opposition parties for so long, for decades.

He has been in power for decades.

And many people look on and just say, nothing is changing.

There is a political blogger, Ou Ritthy, who said, who told us,

that, "For the last 20 years Hun Sen has been the cat, and Sam Rainsy

has been the mouse.

It's an old game.

It's time to become more strategic and break the cycle."

I think the world has changed.

The Cambodian people has changed.

The will of the people has changed.

The Hun Sen regime that has been in power for more than 30 years has

become more and more anachronistic.

Hun Sen is the longest serving Prime Minister in the world,

and his party has been in power for 37 years.

All the young people, the young generation,

since they were born, less than 37 years ago,

they have seen nothing else but Hun Sen and his ruling party -

a former Communist party.

And many of the rulers are former Khmer Rouge.

So the young people want something different.

They compare Cambodia with neighbouring countries

and they realise how backward Cambodia is, because we have

a leadership that is not suitable.

But they haven't shown that they want you.

They could look at you and say that you are of the same generation.

And they haven't chosen you.

Here you are, sitting in exile, choosing to sit on the other side

of the world.

It is not a matter of person, it is a matter of system,

of regime, of the society people want to live in.

People want to live in a different society - more just, more free.

So I may be just the symbol of the aspiration for a period of time.

But they haven't voted for you.

They voted for this same man, Hun Sen, who has overseen

a politically stable country, rising incomes.

It depends on how you look at the result.

When I started the first opposition party in Cambodia, I was alone.

Now I am the leader of a united democratic opposition.

For the first time ever in Cambodia, we have a united democratic

opposition, and we have nearly half of all the seats

at the National Assembly.

From zero, from scratch, we have reached half

of the National Assembly, in spite of the massive

irregularities.

If the elections were a little bit better, definitely, we would want

an overwhelming majority.

You will know that the international observers

from the International Conference of Asian Political Parties

and the Centrist Asia Pacific Democrats International,

who came to watch the elections, the former speaker of

the Philippines who was overseeing it, said the election was, "Free,

fair and transparent, and above all peaceful,

non-violent and smooth."

There are many opinions.

I think the predominant opinion of independent observers

was that those elections were not representative

of the Cambodian people.

But here you are, you are on the other side of the world,

and you are saying we are going to win.

And yet you are sitting here.

Are you going to go back?

This is not my first exile.

It is your fourth.

It is my fourth exile from one year to four years.

In spite of my being away from the country, the opposition

continues to gain ground, as I just told you, from one seat,

we have 55 seats now.

Are you going to go back?

Are you going to stay here?

I have a lot of colleagues who work on the spot,

even though my vice president is holed up

in the party headquarters, but we have countless colleagues.

Indeed, but there are many people who look and speak favourably of him

and wonder why you are here.

Are you expecting a royal pardon?

You've had one before.

Are you expecting to get another one before the elections?

This is not a matter of justice, of pardon.

It's a matter of political will.

When Hun Sen feels the pressure of the international community -

because Cambodia depends on international assistance -

then he will accept, and he will push

the king to pardon me.

But without a political will, there will be no

pardon from the king.

But are you expecting that to happen?

I expect a political resolution, thanks to the pressure

from the international community.

OK, we will come back to what the international

community can do in a minute.

But will you go back without a royal pardon?

I consider.

Last time I went back a few weeks before the election,

even without a pardon.

So you will go back again without a royal pardon?

I am considering.

When you left the last time, when you chose to go into exile,

the CPP spokesman, the governing party spokesman, Sok Eysan, said,

"In simple terms, he's a coward."

How do you respond to that?

I think when you have to fight a dictatorship, you have first

to consider several options.

What is important, is the end result.

All the options that I have chosen have led to an increase

in the popular support for the opposition.

So you're doing more good here than there?

For the time being, but many people say that there is not

only one Sam Rainsy, there are a million of Sam Rainsys

all over Cambodia.

This is the most important consideration.

But in your own autobiography you wrote that any country

would suffer from the forced absence of the leader of the

opposition party.

I am now in France, but we all remember that

when France were occupied, there were freedom fighters

who could not stay in France.

General de Gaulle came to London for a few years to organise

and to lead the resistance.

Our former king, Norodom Sihanouk, went into exile.

And thanks to his work abroad, he succeeded in pushing

the international community to convene the international peace

conference on Cambodia, leading to the Paris

Peace Accords on Cambodia in 1991.

OK...

And this was the solution to the Cambodian crisis.

But realistically, what difference are you making here?

Because, as you say, it's different from your comparison

with the Second World War and France, because you do

have your colleagues, like your vice president Kem Sokha,

who are back home in Cambodia.

You are here, what difference are you making here with

the international community?

I must not be paralysed.

If I am arrested, if I am prevented from doing anything,

from saying anything, what can be useful?

With modern technologies I can be in touch with all my colleagues,

all over the country, any time.

So I can organise the work of the opposition while

remaining untouchable.

Because the current regime uses the judiciary just

to eliminate the opposition.

So why should we play that game?

The real game is the international community and international

law, international treaty.

Sebastian Strangio, who is the author of the book

Hun Sen's Cambodia, describes it as, "Increasingly a losing strategy."

He says that because, "Despite frequent expressions

of concern by foreign governments, there are few signs they will

actively intervene in Cambodian affairs unless things get

a great deal worse."

I think Cambodia has reached a critical point,

because over the last few years the situation has

never been so tense.

And this is the first time that we can see the international

community speaking with one voice.

Recently, 39 countries have condemned the Hun Sen

regime, and have called for the democratisation process

to be put back on track.

But realistically, what are they going to do?

They don't do anything about other countries in the region who have far

worse human rights records.

So what are they actually going to do about Cambodia apart

from saying, you know, "Could be better?"

I think that when they start to speak with one voice,

they can do a lot more than before.

Because Cambodia depends heavily on the international community,

international assistance, international loans,

international markets.

So Cambodia cannot ignore the will of...

But so long as they carry on trading, and there are a huge

amount of trade done between international...

Between foreign countries and Cambodia - and you have called

for a boycott of clothes, or a restriction on the amount

of clothes that are bought from Cambodia, but that would only

hurt the workers, wouldn't it?

No, it is the trade unions who have asked the same thing,

to put pressure on the buyer to improve the working

conditions of the worker.

So I call on the international community also to put pressure

on the Cambodian government in all fields, in social fields,

in economic fields, to improve the living conditions and the human

rights of the Cambodian people.

But that's not going to make any difference to the government.

You will see, because pressure is building up.

Especially pressure for the holding of free and fair elections that

Hun Sen wants to avoid.

But the international community looks at Cambodia and sees

a politically stable country, that is one of the fastest-growing

economies in Asia with 7% last year, which is typical

of the last few years.

Hundreds of thousands have been lifted out of poverty.

Why would they intervene?

I think this is an out of date conception of stability.

Before, you can have stability and a dictatorship.

But now I think the new definition of stability is a stability based

on democracy and the respect of human rights.

And secondly, the Cambodian population is mature enough now,

they are determined.

So what the opposition is calling for, is just to allow them

to express their will freely and to have their will respected.

You say it's outdated, but the World Bank has said that

Cambodia has exceeded the millennium development goal targets,

one of the best performers in poverty reduction worldwide.

This is a very superficial look at the situation.

When you talk about the economy and growth, you should consider,

how is it sustainable, and how is it equitable?

The Cambodian growth is neither sustainable nor equitable.

OK, but you must recognise that there were various things

that you put forward - a 7-point plan at the last election

- and this government has taken on many of those reforms

and implemented them.

You should look at the reports by Human Rights Watch,

by Amnesty International, see how human rights are violated.

How a small group of people get richer and richer while the vast

majority of the Cambodian people remain destitute.

OK, so we get to the next election, you say that it will be fair enough

for Hun Sen to be kicked out and for the opposition

to be elected.

I think many things have to be put right in Cambodia.

You should look at the report of Global Witness, based in London,

and they have decried the massive deforestation...

OK, but I'm asking you a different question.

Yes.

You are confident that the elections will come, that they will be fair,

and that you will be elected?

They will be better, because we have a better electoral

commission.

And the outcome will be that Hun Sen is thrown out

and you will be elected?

The outcome will be that there will be a democratic change.

And your party will be elected?

Possibly, but this is not the most important.

The most important is to ensure a democratic change for Cambodia.

And Hun Sen has warned of civil war if the opposition wins

the next election.

All dictators warn of civil war, of catastrophe,

if they are not kept in power.

The political analyst Ou Virak, though, says -

he is president of Future Forum, which is a policy research

institute in Cambodia - and he said that, "The pattern

of politics in Cambodia, the way it works, the violence,

bogus criminal charges on the one hand, exile protests,

boycotts on the other side - your side - it's an obstacle

to devising policy solutions to the worst

of Cambodia's problems."

He said, "It's time for a changing of the

guard on all sides."

Is he right?

I think everything has an end.

Our dictatorships will end, after 37 years of the same ruling

party, of the same dictatorship, I think the Cambodian people deserve

a better leadership.

And it will end peacefully?

It will end peacefully...

We will do our best to ensure that it will end peacefully,

but the international community must help ensure that there is a peaceful

and democratic election process.

Sam Rainsy, thank you for coming on HARDtalk.

Thank you.

Hello there, good morning.

An area of low pressure is heading towards the south-west of the UK.

It will spread its way northwards.

For many places it will turn increasingly wet and windy

through the day today.

But maybe not for all.

As you can see on the satellite sequence, a fairly extensive area

of cloud fast approaching the south-west, bringing