24/01/2017 HARDtalk


24/01/2017

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ruling CDU party. Does the arrival of Donald Trump plus breaks it spell

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the start of a new world order and mark a shift in power away from the

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West? Minister Ursula von der Leyen, welcome to HARDtalk. Thank you. The

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present -- the president of Germany has said, with the inauguration of a

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new US President, we face challenges to the international order and to

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transatlantic relations. Germany and Europe can no longer live as usual

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on the trans- Atlantic partnership, can they? I am deeply convinced that

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they can rely on the transatlantic partnership because there is a

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strong foundation, the transatlantic partnership, almost 70 years, there

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is a huge amount of common experience, of trust and confidence

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in each other and we have this transatlantic partnership because we

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share a common values. But here is your president who is stepping down

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in March after five years and he is going through this period of

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reflection and he is seeing it has challenges. Are you saying that his

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concerns are not valid? Eddie says it is challenging, I would applaud.

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What are the challenges? We have to major challenges. The first is

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terror on the causes of terror. The crisis in the Middle East. The

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second one is cyberspace manipulation. We will talk about

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those but I have to put it to use that those challenges existed under

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Barack Obama but he says under the inauguration of a new US president,

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there are challenges to the transatlantic partnership which is a

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different point. If you are not talking about the threats we are

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facing together, let us talk about a new administration. I have been in

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Davos and talking at the World Economic Forum to many Republican --

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Republican Congressmen and Senators and it's interesting to listen to

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them interpret what at that time, President elect, now President Trump

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said, ought we did and what I sensed is there is a typical reaction, and

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I am familiar with that, when you come into office and there is a

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change of government and policies, there is a tendency to say what has

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been is wrong and not enough and now we will come and change everything.

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We will listen to that. I would say the transatlantic partnership, yes,

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there is a necessity of modernisation but it does not start

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today but it has already started. We will come to later when a moment but

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to continue this, President Xi Jinping of China said the world is

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on the verge of radical change. In ten years, we can expect a new world

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order. There will be an alliance between China and Russia. Basically,

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I am putting it to you that the West is in decline. The West in a

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strategic way, needs strong alliances. He is talking to Russia

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but I also had the chance to listen to this talk, the speech he gave and

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it was interesting, there was a strong speech for free trade, or

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cooperation. Or an inclusive global management of problems and fairness

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within the economic systems. These were new tones. Power tones. He was

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giving our speech. You are implying... He was giving our

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speech. EC claiming the mantle of leader of the world? Filling the

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vacuum? I would say that, I welcome this attitude, welcome to the club

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and of course, this openness, this external openness has to be a code

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and the most important thing is, I am very glad to listen to these

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worlds but -- words but deeds have to follow. So China and Russia being

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the new superpowers in a decade 's time, you refute that? Definitely.

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There is the transatlantic element. I put it to you that the West is in

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decline. It is look at your in particular. US -- Europe is in

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crisis post Brexit, it really is. A couple of thoughts. The president of

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Germany, the Joachim Gauck, a uniting force of the EU has declined

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significantly. President Tom set up to Brexit, countries can follow the

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UK's example and President Xi Jinping of China, the EU was

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gradually falling apart. Three powerful voices, not much confidence

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in your. Warning voices? Different points of view? Yes, the question

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that is in front of us, do we want this European Union and do we want a

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European family or can live without it? Am strongly in favour of a

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European Union I think our future and the tackling, the problem we are

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facing, when we am in the European Union, I do not think a single

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country of the European Union, but even a large country like Germany,

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can handle the problems as well as the European Union can do it. A

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member of the family, you said the family of the European Union, a key

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member, Britain, has decided to go it alone. Theresa May said, we are

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not turning our backs on your up but we want to claim our place as our

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history has always given us, in the world. Looking beyond Europe to

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partners elsewhere. You are faced with this issue but you cannot make

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makes it easy for Britain because as ' one -- Guy van Hofstadt, the key

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negotiator, said, Britain will never accept the situation. You've got to

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make it tough for Britain, haven't you? I think we should diminish the

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tone that is always pushing towards make it tough, make it hard. All

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these words. They do not make it easy. It will not make it hard to

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disentangle. We should keep in mind that we are on the same side of the

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front because we share many values together. We face many common

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threats. Europe is -- if we find a smart and convenient way to organise

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our future relation,, it is not in the European British interest that

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one of the other is not doing well. But Theresa May said in her speech

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on January 16, the UK would not accept a punitive approach to

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Brexit, adding that no deal is better than a bad deal for Britain.

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What are you going to do? Give Britain a good deal but that goes

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against what Guy Verhofstadt said, if you make life too rosy, others

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will follow. Well, yes, and the most important thing is, sit down and

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start to negotiate. The concrete. All these extreme voices, be

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concrete and then you see step-by-step, what is the common

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interest? What is the large portion that we share and do good together

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in a world that is larger than only Britain and the European Union. Are

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you worried, minister, about Britain 's reaction? The Chancellor of the

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Exchequer, Philip Hammond, told a German newspaper that Britain would

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not lie down and accept economic damage incurred by a harsh deal. He

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said the UK would change its economic and social model, have a

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low corporate tax structure, he's got a strong finance sector, so

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Britain could become this tax haven in the heart of Europe. You would be

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very worried about that? These are things to sort out. I don't think it

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is smart to go into attack stumping race and we have heard other voices

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and the whole picture will not be complete if we do not look at the

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final contract we have together. I don't think it is smart just to pick

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the one or the other topic without even having sat down at the

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negotiating table and two are to threats, how it could be. Would it

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happen, issuing a threat? You heard him and its use -- it's his words.

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It would be better to sit down and talk concretely instead of doing

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things, one of the other, small issues. You are obviously Defence

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Minister of Germany. That has turned to defence matters. Donald Trump, in

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an interview in January that he gave to the times newspaper, he described

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Nato as obsolete because it's not taking care of the jihadist threats.

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What is your reaction? I think that we have this long history of trust

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and reliance in Nato and we have the experience that is high value that

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we have article five, it is one of us is attacked, all of us stand up.

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We saw it with 9/11. The United States were being attacked by Al

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Qaeda and all of us, we stood up and we are still in Afghanistan and it

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is good that we have the proof that we can rely on each other. This is

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the one part. Fighting terror started at that time. Al-Qaeda was

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the first massive terror attack of a terroristic group said therefore, we

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are in the process, globally, to fight terror. Nato plays a key rule.

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Therefore, I think there are many objective facts that we need Nato.

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He has also said other worrying things. You mention article five.

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For example, if Russia were to attack a Nato member, he would

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consider first whether the targeted country had met its defence

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commitments before providing military aid. And he was very clear.

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I think that... Have you raised that because that is a serious matter.

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One part is, article five and our promise in the transatlantic

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alliance to stand up for each other. It is not a question of cost

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effectiveness. On the other hand, and beret with our American friends,

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since long, I think you were pasted take over a fair share of the burden

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and has to raise the defence budgets. That is the reason why

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Germany, since a couple of years, we are raising the defence Budget. Way

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higher than the proportion of the overall Budget in Germany. Your

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intention is to raise it by 2020 but had to put it to you, Minister, that

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Germany is not meeting Nato 's target on defence spending. It

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should be 2% of GDP and is currently over 1% and even with your increased

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spending, you will not meet your target. But the steps in right

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direction. How will you meet a target? We are coming from a time

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prime right after the reunification period of peace and the so-called

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peace dividend. And when I came into office, I realised we had to have a

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turnaround, a turnaround in armament, I need more personnel, I

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need a strong rise in the Budget over years. This turnaround has been

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accepted by Parliament which is very important so we have a clear plan.

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We will invest over 130 billion euros over the next 15 years, surely

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in armament. We are raising the amount of soldiers that we have. The

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Armed Forces are 250,000 personnel, military and civilian ones, so the

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numbers go on the right direction. Another aspect of what President

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Trump said concerning defence matters is that he has touted this

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idea of lifting sanctions against Russia, US and EU sanctions, which

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were imposed after Russia took Crimea. And he is stating that if

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there is a deal with Russia on nuclear arms reduction, he would

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lift those sanctions. That is surely something that many people would

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welcome? What we know is that Ukraine accepted to get rid of its

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nuclear weapons. Many, many years ago. With a guarantee, a written

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guarantee from Russia to respect and protect its border. This deal has

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been violated by the annexation of Crimea. Therefore, it is very clear

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that the combination, nuclear weapon reduction, and sanction reduction,

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does not work at all. So it's not something Germany would support? Not

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at all. The sanctions are connected to the Minsk agreement because of

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the hybrid warfare of Russia in the eastern Ukraine and if we are

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talking in terms of deals, this is the deal, Minsk agreement fulfilled,

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then sanction reduction. OK, so that is clearly an area where

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you don't see eye to eye with President Trump. In terms of Russia,

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we have heard, of course, very, very serious warnings from the German

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intelligence agencies that there is some kind of role that is coming

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from Russia in terms of online attacks and misinformation, and you

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are all very concerned about that because you have got your national

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elections in September this year, and the US vice president in the

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Obama administration, Joe Biden, said he had no doubt that Russia

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interfered with the US elections, through its online attacks and

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hacking. What are you doing to try to stop this? What action can you

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take? It is a real concern, bots, trolls, fake news, we have it all.

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And therefore I created a cyber command which is merging the

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intelligence officers with the IT officers. Cyber command means

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visibility, strength, and we are constantly addressing, in public,

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the topics. Because the public has to understand what our bots, what

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are trolls, what are fake news? We are learning in public now that not

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every opinion out there is a real opinion, from a person, but it can

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be an algorithm, it can be a computer driven opinions, that are

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there. And therefore it is very important to realise what we do not

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want is machine against human being. We want human beings in dialogue, to

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have their opinions, and to debate about opinions. That is democracy.

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But democracy is as it is is not machines against humans. Fake news

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is one thing but on this issue of spying, hacking by Russia, you very

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clearly pointed the finger at Russia. The NATO chief accepts that

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there is a problem, that some states are doing this, but he has declined

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to specifically name any country, including Russia. Would you like

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NATO to do more? We have to prove it. Case by case by case. We have to

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defend ourselves, support our cyber security, absolutely true. But we

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have proved in Germany where it was clear that it was the Kremlin who

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tried to interfere with public opinion. I will give you an example,

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of the case where there was a rumour out that refugees, plural, had raped

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a 13-year-old girl of Russian descent. None of it was true. It had

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a huge reaction in the Russian-speaking community in

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Germany, and it ended with the Foreign Minister of Russia saying

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this time he hopes Germany would not hide the fact. So the good part in

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it, in this is an ugly story, is that the German media dismantled and

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showed the whole fake news plot. And what the intention is behind it.

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Therefore we are learning the patterns. And I am talking about

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that just to say, just to make sure, don't try to interfere in that way,

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because we are showing the patterns to the public. Right, you mentioned

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refugees, and of course Angela Merkel, the Chancellor of Germany,

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with her opendoor policy and taking in millions of refugees last year

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has provoked quite a reaction. Even she has said that what has happened

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will not happen again. You have got these national elections coming up

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in September, in the spring you've got some regional elections. You are

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Deputy Chair of the ruling CDU, which Angela Merkel is the chat, of

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course. You must be very worried, particularly with the rise of some

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of the anti-immigration parties like AfD, alternative for Deutschland.

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The rise of the populist party AfD has... The migration flow in 2015

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was the trigger, without any doubt. Different from other countries,

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where you have populist movement as well, but the trigger was not the

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economic system or the economic situation in Germany. We have a very

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robust economy. We have unemployment that is as low as never before in

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our history, almost no youth unemployment. We have rising wages,

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rising pensions, stable prices, so the economy is strong. But the

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experience of the almost 900,000 refugees in 2015 really worried the

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public, without any doubt. And this made it easier for populist parties.

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What happened this year is we have a reduction of the migrant flow. Less

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than one third did come. So this is an improvement, and at the moment

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being, you see that confidence is coming back. But what are you doing?

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Because you know, the AfD took more votes than the CDU in Angela

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Merkel's own home state. And I will tell you what one of your allies,

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the leader of a very's Christian social union, which is allied to

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your party, said we owe it to the victims of the terrible market

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attack at Christmas in Berlin, to those affected and to the whole

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population, to rethink our immigration and security policy, and

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to change it. So what are you doing, in the light of the concern about

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refugees, especially since people are concerned that some of them may

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carry out terrible attacks like the one we in December in Berlin? Be

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clear about the rules. We will always be open for a silent, people

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who need asylum, because this is in our Constitution. But we a lot of

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people coming to our economic migrants. This is no door to enter

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our country. Economic migrants have to go back to their countries. These

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are the rules. We have been working hard, and we are still working hard,

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on improving the registration, on securing the outside border, on

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clarifying who can stay and who has to go home. We are having a contract

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now with Turkey, with some African countries. What I'm displaying is

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you have to work on the root causes for what happened in 2015. And

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slowly but surely, step I step, people realise if we don't work with

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Africa, for example, on reducing migrant flows, invest in Africa

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instability, in economic development, then it will be

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difficult to tackle the problem. But if we do so, the migrant flows are

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reduced, and this is the fruit of consistent policies, which we are

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doing. Which is why we saw Mrs Merkel visit three African countries

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in 2016. At this is a very key moment for Germany, the league

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nation in the European Union. You know, one of the biggest economies

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in the world. Your president has said just now democratic and stable

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Germany faces threat, and he is looking at the jihadist threat that

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we have talked about, and he is talking about obviously Brexit, and

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also a new Trump presidency. So is a critical moment, isn't it, for

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Germany? For Germany and for the open Society and democracy. Because

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what he is talking about, he is painting a picture of all this is

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potentially undermining trust and confidence in democratic

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institutions, and what we have to do, and this is a crucial time,

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stand up the open society. Fight for the urban society. Show that are

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better off with freedom, freedom of press, freedom of opinion, freedom

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of religion, but respect for human rights, the rule of law. He so we

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have to speak up that this is the better model for the future, than

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other proposals. I had to ask you now, turning to a personal matter,

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you gave birth to seven children, including one set of twins. And you

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know, we have heard some talk and debate sometimes about senior female

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politicians, who haven't had children, like the British Prime

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Minister, Angela Merkel. Do you think that is a reflection of

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societal prejudices, or do you think it is cheap political pointscoring?

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Is an absolutely necessary debate. So every single person, the man or

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woman, rings along a certain biography. And a certain set of

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values. And we deal with them, and within this context. But I would

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never, ever reduce it to having children or not having children,

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never. Now, your admirers also talk about you as being a successor to

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Chancellor Angela Merkel, whenever she decides to step down. What do

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you say to them? That every generation has a chancellor, and in

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my generation is Angela Merkel. And I am very, very glad and proud that

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I can serve with her. So is that no or a yes, or is it ducking the

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question? It is dark and the question, isn't it? This is a nice

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term, I didn't know it before. So elections in September, CDU are

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going to come top and still be the government in Germany? Yes, I think

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so. No shock outcomes like we saw with Brexit and the Trump victory?

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No, we're working hard on that goal. There is a good probability we will

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be able reach it. Ursula von der Leyen, thank you for coming on

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HARDtalk. Thank you.

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