Browse content similar to 11/06/2014. Check below for episodes and series from the same categories and more!
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Tonight, Iraq in chaos, another city seized by insurgents as the national | :00:00. | :00:13. | |
army flees the scene. Why were warnings irregular in order and what | :00:14. | :00:16. | |
can save the region from more of the same. Was it a problem of | :00:17. | :00:21. | |
intervention or disengagment. A long way from this. We won, it's over, | :00:22. | :00:28. | |
America, we brought to democracy to Iraq. As Iraqi rule clapses across a | :00:29. | :00:34. | |
swathe of the north, worries grow that Turkey or Iran might want to | :00:35. | :00:38. | |
intervene. The former secretary-general said he warned it | :00:39. | :00:42. | |
would happen. When I was enjoy for Syria I did indicate that unless we | :00:43. | :00:48. | |
find ways of resolving the Syrian crisis or containing it would spread | :00:49. | :00:54. | |
through the region. Also tonight: Desperately seeking Juncker, we are | :00:55. | :00:57. | |
in search of one of the most talked about men in Europe. No really. | :00:58. | :01:03. | |
Excuse me, can you tell me where Mr Juncker is? Mr Juncker? And... . | :01:04. | :01:10. | |
Snatching defeat from the jaws of, well, why is the English nation so | :01:11. | :01:15. | |
cynical about its chances of victory in the World Cup, we will kick about | :01:16. | :01:25. | |
a few ideas. It is hard to overestimate the | :01:26. | :01:28. | |
danger Iraq is in tonight. A country on the verge of disintegration. | :01:29. | :01:33. | |
Today Tikrit became the second city to fall into the hands of insurgents | :01:34. | :01:39. | |
in two says. Isis a group once rejected by Al-Qaeda for its | :01:40. | :01:43. | |
ferocity assaulted Government buildings and captured military | :01:44. | :01:46. | |
hardware as security forces fled. No-one knows how many have been | :01:47. | :01:52. | |
killed in Tikrit and Mosul, but more than half a million have fled. Why | :01:53. | :01:57. | |
were warnings ignored, what is the ultimate aim of Isis, and how much | :01:58. | :02:01. | |
is western intervention and disengagment to blame for where the | :02:02. | :02:03. | |
country is today. We will be getting reaction from inside Iraq tonight, | :02:04. | :02:09. | |
but first our diplomatic editor on the events. | :02:10. | :02:14. | |
The fortunes of Iraq's Government have gone from bad to worse, with | :02:15. | :02:21. | |
Jihadists taking over major centres, hundreds of thousands of people are | :02:22. | :02:25. | |
fleeing. And more reports today of huge piles of cash seized, enemies | :02:26. | :02:31. | |
beheaded and prisoners freed. There is a lot of concern that Prime | :02:32. | :02:36. | |
Minister Al-Maliki has not led effectively, that he has in effect | :02:37. | :02:40. | |
not had a good relationship as all with the Sunni leadership, he has | :02:41. | :02:43. | |
driven the communities apart. That he needs to rally the army to make a | :02:44. | :02:47. | |
stand and he needs to have a more sensible policy towards the Sunni | :02:48. | :02:50. | |
leadership and the Sunni population of Iraq. Punch drunk at the collapse | :02:51. | :02:57. | |
of security forces in Mosul, Prime Minister Al-Maliki said today it | :02:58. | :03:01. | |
must have been a conspiracy, there was no other way he could explain | :03:02. | :03:06. | |
why some army units had just pulled out. TRANSLATION: I can sincerely | :03:07. | :03:15. | |
say what happened in the province was a conspiracy because Al-Qaeda | :03:16. | :03:19. | |
and Isis forces were outfull inned by our army and the police there. | :03:20. | :03:23. | |
But I wonder what happened and how it happened and why some units | :03:24. | :03:28. | |
collapsed. I know the reasons but today we are not here to apportion | :03:29. | :03:32. | |
blame, but there are questions about who took part and how the operation | :03:33. | :03:41. | |
was carried out, who started the rumours and who ordered it and who | :03:42. | :03:54. | |
caused confusion. Yesterday they circumstanced Kirkuk, and there are | :03:55. | :03:59. | |
reports of fighters in Bayji and Tikrit. They are poised for a move | :04:00. | :04:05. | |
on the Baghdad belt, into places like Abu Ghraib, Taji, and Yusfiyah. | :04:06. | :04:12. | |
In terms of fighting back Government troops have shown themselves | :04:13. | :04:15. | |
incapable, so there could be more reliance on Shia militias raised in | :04:16. | :04:21. | |
Baghdad and Kurdish fighters in the north. The key to resolving this | :04:22. | :04:25. | |
current short-term security problem will be with the Kurds, far more | :04:26. | :04:30. | |
cohesive military, they are fighting on home soil, they trust each other | :04:31. | :04:34. | |
and proven in combat. I think they will be in the forefront of the | :04:35. | :04:39. | |
solution. The Iraqi army are fighting on foreign soil, | :04:40. | :04:42. | |
effectively. They don't have local loyalties, they don't know who the | :04:43. | :04:46. | |
enemy are and who the friendly forces are, they are fighting on | :04:47. | :04:49. | |
alien country I would have little confidence in the Iraqi army's | :04:50. | :04:54. | |
confidence to sort this problem. These pictures show what happened as | :04:55. | :04:59. | |
the Iraqi army fled Mosul. Local people, full of contempt, started | :05:00. | :05:06. | |
stoning them. In recent months, many Sunni Arabs have come to see the | :05:07. | :05:10. | |
Shia-dominated army as an oppressive force. The Jihadist of Isis and | :05:11. | :05:15. | |
other Sunni groups reaped this resentment. They built on resentment | :05:16. | :05:24. | |
about security forces' policies, heavihanded policies, like the | :05:25. | :05:28. | |
tendency to engage in mass arrests when trying to clear out Isis hot | :05:29. | :05:34. | |
spots and we have seen that before all this broke out, with the take | :05:35. | :05:42. | |
over of Mosul, we saw it in south of Baghdad where there have been hot | :05:43. | :05:46. | |
spots of Isis in its predecessor form for at least four years. So | :05:47. | :05:55. | |
they certainly are a constituent in the broader opposition and they have | :05:56. | :05:59. | |
to be taken seriously. Privately policy makers in the capitals of | :06:00. | :06:05. | |
Iraq's former occupiers, the US and UK are furious with Nouri Al-Maliki. | :06:06. | :06:08. | |
They believe he has brought the situation on himself by years of | :06:09. | :06:12. | |
alienating the Sunni community through sectarian politics. | :06:13. | :06:15. | |
Publicly, though, they have no choice but to back him. Many Iraqis | :06:16. | :06:25. | |
blame America's occupation for upsetting the ethnic balance and | :06:26. | :06:29. | |
empowering Prime Minister Al-Maliki. But equally it was the sacrifice of | :06:30. | :06:33. | |
ordinary coalition soldiers that helped reduce the violence almost to | :06:34. | :06:38. | |
zero by the time they withdrew. Washington now watches in alarm. We | :06:39. | :06:45. | |
have seen Al-Qaeda core mat it is a at this size into -- mataicise into | :06:46. | :06:51. | |
core local groups in west and East Africa, and especially mostly in | :06:52. | :06:56. | |
Syria and Iraq, and this group Isis, flooding both the Syrian and Iraqi | :06:57. | :07:00. | |
Government is terrorising the local population. It is making rapidly | :07:01. | :07:07. | |
expanding its influence on the ground, it poses a real threat to | :07:08. | :07:10. | |
Europe and America and the Arab world, so we do have to have, I | :07:11. | :07:14. | |
think, international support for the Iraqi Government, however misguided | :07:15. | :07:21. | |
the Prime Minister of Iraq has been. Militant fighters in Mosul have been | :07:22. | :07:24. | |
celebrating their victory. And they have taken four dozen Turk, | :07:25. | :07:29. | |
including consular officials prisoner. The sudden shift in power | :07:30. | :07:34. | |
towards Isis could trigger Turkish or Iranian intervention and that is | :07:35. | :07:37. | |
creating tension across the Middle East. A little earlier I was joined | :07:38. | :07:45. | |
from Baghdad by an Iraqi associate fellow of Chatham House, and Patrick | :07:46. | :07:52. | |
Osgood a journalist based there. I asked if the Isis insurgence could | :07:53. | :08:03. | |
have been anticipated? What couldn't be anticipated is the Iraqi army | :08:04. | :08:10. | |
fleeing en masse. Many of the fighters belonging to the extremist | :08:11. | :08:13. | |
groups were able to out the forces and they fled in the tens of | :08:14. | :08:18. | |
thousands. The Iraqi army did not attempt to fight back, right? | :08:19. | :08:22. | |
Absolutely, no. For many of the soldiers this simply was a city not | :08:23. | :08:26. | |
worth dying for. They had a hostile relationship with the population, | :08:27. | :08:30. | |
the population saw them more as occupiers, and as enemies, more than | :08:31. | :08:34. | |
the national army. So they didn't want to put up a fight and decided | :08:35. | :08:39. | |
not to die. They left armoured vehicles, they left military | :08:40. | :08:42. | |
hardware, weapons, clearly, do you think that would happen in the case | :08:43. | :08:48. | |
of Baghdad? It is going to be very difficult to see this being repeated | :08:49. | :08:52. | |
in Baghdad, mainly because that is where the central Government's | :08:53. | :08:55. | |
forces are concentrated, and also the central Government in Baghdad is | :08:56. | :09:00. | |
relying more and more on Shia militia, they are Iranian-backed, | :09:01. | :09:07. | |
ideolgical low-driven forces, acting as auxiliary forces for the Iraqi | :09:08. | :09:11. | |
Government. You make Baghdad sound like a very different place to | :09:12. | :09:15. | |
Mosul, I'm wondering what the level of fear is on the ground where you | :09:16. | :09:19. | |
are now? Well, there is a lot of confusion on the ground. I mean the | :09:20. | :09:22. | |
checkpoints here in Baghdad, some tell you there is a curfew imposed | :09:23. | :09:29. | |
at 10.00, a few minutes ago, others saying 12.00. Official Iraqi forces | :09:30. | :09:34. | |
who themselves have no idea what is going on. Do you think they could | :09:35. | :09:37. | |
topple the Government there? Isis don't want to necessarily topple the | :09:38. | :09:40. | |
Government. What they are trying to do is provoke the Shia militias and | :09:41. | :09:45. | |
even ordinary Shias from taking up arms. Why this becomes dangerous is | :09:46. | :09:48. | |
because the Government is calling for this. The Government is opening | :09:49. | :09:52. | |
up recruitment centres in the capital and across the south, it is | :09:53. | :09:56. | |
calling for citizens to arm themselves and it is telling them | :09:57. | :10:00. | |
that they will provide arms. This is exactly what the Jihadists want. If | :10:01. | :10:06. | |
they can industryinger out an all-out Civil War between Sunnis and | :10:07. | :10:10. | |
Shias it will make their lives much easier and give them more room to | :10:11. | :10:15. | |
manoeuvre across the country. We go over to our other guest. Do you feel | :10:16. | :10:19. | |
it is a very different place tonight? Yeah, very much so. Here | :10:20. | :10:27. | |
life goes on, more or less as normal. But it is only 40 minutes | :10:28. | :10:33. | |
away that checkpoints with Mosul are seeing thousands of refugees coming | :10:34. | :10:38. | |
over. It feels very, very different indeed. Increasingly like a | :10:39. | :10:45. | |
different country. You have got the Kurdistan regional Government here | :10:46. | :10:49. | |
in a strange situation where it has found itself having had its Armed | :10:50. | :10:55. | |
Forces derided for some time now having the only functions army by a | :10:56. | :10:58. | |
sanctioned actor in the country. When you say functioning army, you | :10:59. | :11:03. | |
think this would be an army that would stand up and fight if push | :11:04. | :11:09. | |
came to shove? To defend Kurdish territory, to defend Kurdistan, | :11:10. | :11:15. | |
absolutely. I would be surprised to see them at this behest of either | :11:16. | :11:19. | |
the central Government or under international pressure, making any | :11:20. | :11:26. | |
kind of sortie into Mosul. What the dud here from the Kurdistan | :11:27. | :11:30. | |
leadership is they have been warning about something like this for a very | :11:31. | :11:34. | |
long time, and it is falling on deaf ears, both in Baghdad and | :11:35. | :11:37. | |
internationally. They now feel vindicated and they want to get on | :11:38. | :11:43. | |
with the business of building a kind of quasi-nation state, which they | :11:44. | :11:47. | |
are already on the way to doing. If I could go back to you, when you | :11:48. | :11:52. | |
look at Fallujah, Mosul and Tikrit, they are saying what is gone is | :11:53. | :11:57. | |
gone? Yeah, the central Government and Prime Minister Al-Maliki | :11:58. | :12:01. | |
yesterday said Mosul will be retaken in 24 hours, which is laughable | :12:02. | :12:05. | |
given he said initially the campaign is only going to last one week. The | :12:06. | :12:10. | |
Iraqi forces may try to retake the cities, but Mosul is a lot bigger | :12:11. | :12:17. | |
than Fallujah. And what we see there is the city is being besieged from | :12:18. | :12:20. | |
the outside by the central Government forces and they are | :12:21. | :12:25. | |
shelling often indiscriminately and there are many, many civilian | :12:26. | :12:30. | |
casualties. If the Iraqi army does try to do the same thing in Mosul, | :12:31. | :12:35. | |
we will see a much bigger and wider humanitarian crisis. And sources in | :12:36. | :12:39. | |
Mosul tell me that the people of Mosul, and this speaks to how | :12:40. | :12:43. | |
hostile the relationship with the army was, when the army fled and | :12:44. | :12:48. | |
Jihadists entered the city, the people of Mosul were more afraid of | :12:49. | :12:54. | |
Iraqi army retaliations, in terms of air strikes, than they were of the | :12:55. | :12:58. | |
extremist Jihadists themselves. We are looking at dark days ahead of us | :12:59. | :13:03. | |
at least. Some views from inside Iraq, and joining me now from | :13:04. | :13:09. | |
Pittsburgh is Karen Skinner an adviser to George W Bush on the Iraq | :13:10. | :13:13. | |
and Afghan wars, she's now a research fellow at Stamford's Hoover | :13:14. | :13:18. | |
Institution. And we have a former British ambassador to Iraq and | :13:19. | :13:27. | |
Afghanistan. A warm welcome. I wonder how much the west needs to | :13:28. | :13:29. | |
take responsibility for what is happening in Iraq now? Sadly the | :13:30. | :13:33. | |
west bears quite a bit of responsibility and in particular the | :13:34. | :13:39. | |
United States, the country which under George W Bush pushed into Iraq | :13:40. | :13:42. | |
to bring peace and democracy to that country. But also Obama | :13:43. | :13:48. | |
administration, there is enormous immediate responsibility for what is | :13:49. | :13:53. | |
happening on the ground. Because it was senator Barack Obama who | :13:54. | :13:55. | |
campaigned on the promise to get out of Iraq and leave that country whole | :13:56. | :14:00. | |
and free as a democracy, declared it early in his presidency and by the | :14:01. | :14:06. | |
end of 2011 the US left. Nonetheless, sectarian division | :14:07. | :14:12. | |
still existed in that country and then Syria was on its way to Civil | :14:13. | :14:17. | |
War. The US has no serious Middle East policy to speak of beyond | :14:18. | :14:22. | |
exiting wars and repositioning itself towards Asia. It sends a bad | :14:23. | :14:26. | |
message to the Jihadists that are now in power in Mosul. Would you | :14:27. | :14:32. | |
agree with that, it has been said this evening that Bush shouldn't | :14:33. | :14:36. | |
have gone in, Obama shouldn't have come out, that is where the | :14:37. | :14:38. | |
responsibility ultimate low lies? You know reopening the debate about | :14:39. | :14:42. | |
whether or not we should have gone in or not is not very helpful in | :14:43. | :14:47. | |
this context. It is a bit harsh to blame the west, because you have had | :14:48. | :14:50. | |
a full term of a Al-Maliki Government in Baghdad. What we're | :14:51. | :14:59. | |
seeing now is an ailation of Sunni -- alienation of Sunni, I don't | :15:00. | :15:03. | |
think Isis could have had enough force to take Mosul or Tikrit if the | :15:04. | :15:09. | |
Sunnis hadn't been alienated. Why has Al-Maliki been allowed to fail, | :15:10. | :15:13. | |
he was hand-picked by America, billions behind him, the | :15:14. | :15:15. | |
constitution which you helped draft was drawn up for and with him. That | :15:16. | :15:22. | |
is a mistake? Allowed to fail, in a sense, I think we overestimate our | :15:23. | :15:26. | |
power. Iraq was set on a course and it was up to the Iraqis to deliver | :15:27. | :15:32. | |
on their promise, I think there were various opportunities that Al-Maliki | :15:33. | :15:36. | |
failed to bring the Sunnis in. You know when he drove Al-Hashimi out of | :15:37. | :15:43. | |
the country and he alienated the tribes of Ambar and Ramadi. In a | :15:44. | :15:49. | |
sense, it is an Iraqi failure, I don't think you can blame this on | :15:50. | :15:55. | |
Bush or Obama. Yet the relevance of the west is surely when you ask | :15:56. | :16:00. | |
whether Obama should go back in? Whether there should be intervention | :16:01. | :16:05. | |
once more to sort this out? I just disagree some what with your guest | :16:06. | :16:10. | |
and agree with him in part in other ways. Of course this is not fully | :16:11. | :16:14. | |
the failure of the United States and the west, but once we made the | :16:15. | :16:18. | |
commitment to go into Iraq to declare that we were exiting with | :16:19. | :16:22. | |
not a clear pathway for the country forward, I think that was a grave | :16:23. | :16:27. | |
mistake, and it sent a bad message to those who wanted to destroy the | :16:28. | :16:31. | |
country. Also on the Mall side, of course it is a weak Government and | :16:32. | :16:38. | |
power, Mosul's indictment of his ability to control the security | :16:39. | :16:42. | |
force, the national army and just overall run the country. He has | :16:43. | :16:48. | |
slanted in a sectarian way as the leader of the country. But the | :16:49. | :16:51. | |
United States is the most powerful nation on earth. It is nearly 50% of | :16:52. | :16:56. | |
world defence spending, if we don't help our allies often they can't do | :16:57. | :17:01. | |
it alone. That is my core point. What does that mean, help them? Is | :17:02. | :17:06. | |
this a situation that is spelling out to you boots on the ground | :17:07. | :17:11. | |
needed? Well, I think that is a far jump given how the administration | :17:12. | :17:18. | |
has really pulled back in Iraq, that it would go in as it is exiting | :17:19. | :17:23. | |
Afghanistan and facing a crisis around the Taliban, and just a | :17:24. | :17:28. | |
disorientated foreign policy. To ask of the administration a return to | :17:29. | :17:32. | |
Iraq, I think it is a tall order. But a more responsible regional | :17:33. | :17:37. | |
policy that is clearly articulated, that bolsters our allies, like the | :17:38. | :17:45. | |
Turk, I think it makes a big difference in a region that is full | :17:46. | :17:52. | |
of strife and multiple wars going on in several countries all at the same | :17:53. | :17:55. | |
time. This is the question isn't it, from what you have seen and you have | :17:56. | :17:59. | |
served in both countries, does this look regional enough to happen in | :18:00. | :18:05. | |
Afghanistan, are we starting to see this arc? I think it is very | :18:06. | :18:08. | |
different. I think there is an absence of an Obama doctrine, if you | :18:09. | :18:12. | |
like. There is a sense in which there is no clear American policy. | :18:13. | :18:18. | |
There is some indecision. Which is a legacy of the history of our | :18:19. | :18:21. | |
intervention in Iraq and Afghanistan. I think those who are | :18:22. | :18:25. | |
advocating do we have to go in, that would be a big mistake. I don't | :18:26. | :18:28. | |
think our military can always solve these problems. I think the problem | :18:29. | :18:34. | |
is it has to be solved by Iraqis. Do you think this is a joined-up | :18:35. | :18:38. | |
problem. When the west is looking on this region now, do you see this as | :18:39. | :18:43. | |
dangerous? I think this is a very dangerous moment for Iraq, and | :18:44. | :18:47. | |
dangerous moment for us, I think we could see the emergence of a Jihadi | :18:48. | :18:55. | |
extremist eptity in Iraq and Syria. What does eptity mean, a control of | :18:56. | :19:04. | |
a -- eptity mean? A control of a territory where they could plot | :19:05. | :19:09. | |
against the west. There could come a point where we have no choice | :19:10. | :19:21. | |
because our national security is threatenedecause our national | :19:22. | :19:23. | |
security is threatened. Do you see Iran in this entry. I think Iran | :19:24. | :19:27. | |
will provide whatever support they think the Iraqis need. I wonder, in | :19:28. | :19:38. | |
a way it is disenginous to say -- disingenious to say there was a time | :19:39. | :19:42. | |
of peace and it was safe to step back, it has got worse? I think it | :19:43. | :19:48. | |
is an ahistorical point to say democracy and peace had spread | :19:49. | :19:56. | |
through Iraq, because the sectarian violence has historical roots and | :19:57. | :19:59. | |
had nothing to do with what was going on at any one time. The United | :20:00. | :20:03. | |
States und President Obama declared that terrorism represents one of the | :20:04. | :20:07. | |
highest threats to the nation. If that's the case then Iraq becomes a | :20:08. | :20:10. | |
high priority for the administration. It has to explain to | :20:11. | :20:14. | |
the American public and the rest of the world what we are actually going | :20:15. | :20:18. | |
to do, given that in the past two weeks at west point, the President | :20:19. | :20:23. | |
outlined his foreign policy as best he could, where he said that | :20:24. | :20:28. | |
terrorism is something that we will focus on, often unilaterally if | :20:29. | :20:32. | |
necessary. I think it is still an important role for the US to play. | :20:33. | :20:40. | |
Thank you very much. The United Nations has seemed to look on | :20:41. | :20:45. | |
helplessly as events in Iraq spiral out of control, its secretary, Ban | :20:46. | :20:50. | |
Ki-Moon, expressing grave concern about the situation. Earlier on | :20:51. | :20:55. | |
today I spoke to his predecessor, Kofi Anan. We must all feel this is | :20:56. | :21:01. | |
a sad day for the United Nations and international community. He was the | :21:02. | :21:05. | |
man charged with the unenviable job of leading the UN, during one of the | :21:06. | :21:10. | |
most tumultuous periods in modern times. Arguments raged over the | :21:11. | :21:15. | |
invasions of Afghanistan and Iraq. He served as the United Nations | :21:16. | :21:20. | |
envoy to Syria during 2012, but resigned, calling it "mission | :21:21. | :21:26. | |
impossible" because of proxy wars being fought during regional powers. | :21:27. | :21:31. | |
More recently he has been working on a report looking at the drug trade, | :21:32. | :21:37. | |
narcotics are produced in South America but traffiked through to | :21:38. | :21:46. | |
reach the US and Europe. The Ugandan Foreign Minister was voted in as the | :21:47. | :21:52. | |
cermonial President. He's a support of the strict antigay law, that | :21:53. | :21:56. | |
authorises life imprisonment for those convicts of having gay sex. I | :21:57. | :22:04. | |
started the interview by asking Kofi Annan what he thought about today's | :22:05. | :22:09. | |
events in Iraq? I have been quite involved in the Middle East for a | :22:10. | :22:14. | |
while. For quite a long time. When I was the enjoy for Syria, I did | :22:15. | :22:19. | |
indicate that unless we found ways of resolving the Syrian crisis, or | :22:20. | :22:25. | |
containing it, it would spread through the region. And now we see a | :22:26. | :22:31. | |
movement that is likely to operate across borders openly, linking Syria | :22:32. | :22:41. | |
and Iraq. With the extremist element trying to establish their own state. | :22:42. | :22:45. | |
You think that could be the beginning of an Islamic kalafait? It | :22:46. | :22:54. | |
depends how we come together to deal with the crisis in the region. The | :22:55. | :22:58. | |
situation cannot be handled by the Iraqis alone, they have asked for | :22:59. | :23:03. | |
help. Just as the Syrians alone cannot handle their crisis. And I | :23:04. | :23:10. | |
believe we need a very effective core group made up of permanent | :23:11. | :23:17. | |
members of the Security Council, Saudi Arabia, Iran, Turkey and | :23:18. | :23:25. | |
possibly Egypt. So you need to bring the regional powers together. In | :23:26. | :23:29. | |
other words they would need to work together. I'm not sure there is a | :23:30. | :23:35. | |
stomach for troops on the ground. I don't see any country that will put | :23:36. | :23:39. | |
boots on the ground. What they can do is agree a common approach, make | :23:40. | :23:45. | |
a common purpose and work together to implement the agreement they | :23:46. | :23:52. | |
reach. And undertake not to fund or arm either side. The west came close | :23:53. | :24:09. | |
to military intervention in Syria, are you disappointed that didn't | :24:10. | :24:13. | |
happen? I'm not sure military intervention would have made that | :24:14. | :24:16. | |
much difference. As I said earlier we need to think through these | :24:17. | :24:20. | |
interventions very carefully, in some situations it can make the | :24:21. | :24:26. | |
situation worse. We have seen it in several countries, where military | :24:27. | :24:29. | |
action has not, like Iraq, like Libya. Can I just briefly ask you | :24:30. | :24:35. | |
your thoughts on the possible President of the UN General | :24:36. | :24:41. | |
Assembly? I see why you are asking that question, we really have no | :24:42. | :24:47. | |
right to discriminate the way it is happening in some countries, | :24:48. | :24:52. | |
including Uganda, to the extent of threatening people with death. And | :24:53. | :24:59. | |
so indeed have died. It is something that, which cannot be condoned, | :25:00. | :25:09. | |
should not be accepted and of course I do not expect him to promote those | :25:10. | :25:15. | |
kinds of policies in the General Assembly. He's not going to get | :25:16. | :25:25. | |
anywhere. I see the point you are making, if the UN is going to preach | :25:26. | :25:29. | |
and tell people about human rights and all this, we have to lead by | :25:30. | :25:37. | |
example. Your report from the foundation suggests a real reform is | :25:38. | :25:41. | |
needed on the ways you tackle the west African drug problem, | :25:42. | :25:46. | |
particularly in how you criminalise most aspects of it? That is | :25:47. | :25:49. | |
absolutely correct. We believe that the war on drugs has not worked and | :25:50. | :25:55. | |
we should have the courage to ask the right questions and do something | :25:56. | :26:00. | |
about it. The commission's report believes that we should approach it | :26:01. | :26:04. | |
more from a health point of view, see how we can help the users, but | :26:05. | :26:11. | |
at the same time be very firm and very hard on the big drug barons. Do | :26:12. | :26:15. | |
you believe that the Governments that you are talking to support | :26:16. | :26:19. | |
this, do you believe that the US and the EU would support this level of | :26:20. | :26:25. | |
decriminalisation? Well, initially perhaps not, but at least they | :26:26. | :26:29. | |
should discuss it, and I know that discussion is taking place in the | :26:30. | :26:34. | |
US, it is taking place in Latin America, and it is taking place in | :26:35. | :26:38. | |
some parts of Europe and some countries in Europe have indeed | :26:39. | :26:45. | |
taken action. We are at the beginning so I don't expect | :26:46. | :26:50. | |
overnight changes. But the changes have to come. Waughs Because I | :26:51. | :26:56. | |
really believe that drugs have destroyed many lives, but | :26:57. | :27:00. | |
wrong-headed Governmental policies have destroyed many more. | :27:01. | :27:06. | |
Kofi Annan talking to me from Senegal earlier. | :27:07. | :27:09. | |
To matters here, another big rise in employment, unfall in unemployment | :27:10. | :27:12. | |
and the jobs appear to be well spread across the country. The bad | :27:13. | :27:16. | |
news is average earnings growth has again fallen below inflation. With | :27:17. | :27:21. | |
all the caveats to how we preyed it, here is the -- we break it down. We | :27:22. | :27:30. | |
will come to the caveats in a moment, exceptional growth in | :27:31. | :27:34. | |
employment and the people in work and another big fall in | :27:35. | :27:38. | |
unemployment. That is down to 6. 6%. Put that in context, if you go back | :27:39. | :27:43. | |
to last summer the Bank of England said we won't even consider raising | :27:44. | :27:47. | |
interest rates until unemployment is below 7%. They said we won't expect | :27:48. | :27:52. | |
that to happen until mid-2016. Here we are two years earlier and t down | :27:53. | :27:58. | |
to 6. 6%. It raises a lot of questions. What about average | :27:59. | :28:02. | |
earnings? This is what is seen as the bad news in today's numbers. | :28:03. | :28:07. | |
Since 2009, in general, inflation, price rises, have been ahead of wage | :28:08. | :28:11. | |
growth. Real wage, wages after price rises have been falling for six | :28:12. | :28:16. | |
years. Historically long squeeze in real incomes. Last month for the | :28:17. | :28:19. | |
first time in a few years earnings got back above inflation, much | :28:20. | :28:23. | |
celebration at the time. Today, I'm afraid, they fell back below. This | :28:24. | :28:27. | |
is where we bring in the caveat, we have to be careful. The first rule | :28:28. | :28:31. | |
of looking at any economic theory is don't get too excited by one data | :28:32. | :28:35. | |
point. We all got excited last month and people are getting excited | :28:36. | :28:40. | |
today. Not usually a good idea. Secondly, there are technical issues | :28:41. | :28:45. | |
about pulling down bonus payments. If you dig into the numbers today, | :28:46. | :28:49. | |
if you are the average worker in somewhere like retail, hotels, | :28:50. | :28:53. | |
restaurant, manufacturing, you are seeing real wages rise at the | :28:54. | :28:57. | |
moment. You mentioned interest rates before, what's the impact that | :28:58. | :29:02. | |
today's news will have, will people feel better off or worse off, where | :29:03. | :29:06. | |
is this going? If you look at the forecast, and maybe shouldn't pay | :29:07. | :29:10. | |
too much tension and I tension to them, most forecasts say this year, | :29:11. | :29:14. | |
2014, we should see wage growth of about 2. 5% and inflation a little | :29:15. | :29:20. | |
bit below 2%. We will see real wages rise this year, people feeling | :29:21. | :29:25. | |
better off. 2. 5% wage growth is still historically weak. Ten years | :29:26. | :29:29. | |
before 200 # you expected more like 4%. After the few years we have had, | :29:30. | :29:37. | |
that is good news. Looking at the forecast, barring some unexpected | :29:38. | :29:41. | |
disaster, people will feel better off. But barring a miracle they will | :29:42. | :29:46. | |
still be worse off than 2008, that is an interesting question heading | :29:47. | :29:49. | |
into the election. Do people look at the last year or do they think they | :29:50. | :29:56. | |
are worse off than a few years back. It is an issue that has united right | :29:57. | :30:01. | |
and left, euro-sceptic and file, Labour and the Conservatives, the | :30:02. | :30:07. | |
unsuitable offup Jean-Claude Juncker -- of one Jean-Claude Juncker as | :30:08. | :30:11. | |
head of the European Commission. Today the right-hand man side he was | :30:12. | :30:16. | |
quitting his post and take up a post in London. Where does that leave | :30:17. | :30:21. | |
Juncker's bid and where he is. We were on the trail of the most talked | :30:22. | :30:33. | |
about man in Europe. Where do begin the search for the most illusive man | :30:34. | :30:43. | |
in European politics. Land locked Luxembourg, of course, no I wasn't | :30:44. | :30:47. | |
sure where it is either, but I know now. And Jean-Claude Juncker is the | :30:48. | :30:51. | |
country's best known export, if you are into that sort of thing. Let's | :30:52. | :31:01. | |
locate Mr Juncker, Luxembourg has half a million people in it, it | :31:02. | :31:09. | |
shouldn't be too tricky. Come to think of it, where are all those | :31:10. | :31:13. | |
people? Perhaps it was a mistake to come during a public holiday. Could | :31:14. | :31:28. | |
you tell me where Mr Juncker is? Mr Juncker? Mr Juncker was Prime | :31:29. | :31:31. | |
Minister here for nearly two decades and is still an MP. But no luck at | :31:32. | :31:38. | |
the parliament. Mr Juncker? What about Mr Juncker. Do you know where | :31:39. | :31:42. | |
he is? Where, yeah I know. Where is he? I can't tell you. Why not? We | :31:43. | :31:50. | |
are not allowed to tell you that. Only weeks ago Mr Juncker was happy | :31:51. | :31:54. | |
to be found. I joined his tour bus in Athens as he campaigned for | :31:55. | :31:58. | |
Europe's top job. He's the centre right choice to be President of the | :31:59. | :32:02. | |
European Commission, and since the centre right won the European | :32:03. | :32:07. | |
elections he's theoretically in pole position. But EU leaders have a big | :32:08. | :32:11. | |
say, the Greek Prime Minister likes him as does the German Chancellor, | :32:12. | :32:15. | |
Angela Merkel, David Cameron isn't keen, viewing Mr Juncker as an | :32:16. | :32:19. | |
obstacle to his attempt to reform Europe. I do think that Europe is | :32:20. | :32:24. | |
stronger with our British friends on board. I do think that Britain in | :32:25. | :32:32. | |
the world can play a major role. Because being a member of the | :32:33. | :32:37. | |
European Union. So I'm far away from being anti-British. I have come to | :32:38. | :32:41. | |
Luxembourg, because now what was supposed to be about democracy has | :32:42. | :32:45. | |
shifted to back room deals, and Mr Juncker is not doing interviews. I | :32:46. | :32:51. | |
haven't found him yet, but I have come to the next best thing, the man | :32:52. | :32:56. | |
who will replace Mr Juncker in the Luxembourg parliament if he becomes | :32:57. | :33:00. | |
commission President. I think he would be the ideal man to build the | :33:01. | :33:03. | |
bridge between the south and north again and to make sure that Europe | :33:04. | :33:10. | |
comes together again, and to hold it together, the union. All the states, | :33:11. | :33:15. | |
including Britain. You think so? I think so, it is one of his | :33:16. | :33:19. | |
priorities. More crucially for us, does he know where Mr Juncker is? | :33:20. | :33:26. | |
(Laughs) We are looking for him. Well look harder! Look heard we did. | :33:27. | :33:38. | |
In Mr Juncker's home town we get a lead. Do you ever see him around? I | :33:39. | :33:44. | |
know's eating a lot of time -- I know he's eating a lot of time in | :33:45. | :33:49. | |
the tennis courts. Not if today is anything to go by. What is this? It | :33:50. | :33:56. | |
is a photo, because I like him and yeah. This is the closest we have | :33:57. | :34:00. | |
got to Mr Juncker so far today. And now we have found Mr Juncker's | :34:01. | :34:05. | |
favourite local, where better to test insinations made in parts of | :34:06. | :34:11. | |
the British press that he's fond of a tipple. I drink more than Mr | :34:12. | :34:19. | |
Juncker, it is the grant -- grappa. Not a big drinker? No, no. It has | :34:20. | :34:24. | |
taken a little while but we have found Mr Juncker's house, but nobody | :34:25. | :34:29. | |
is home at the moment. We were wrong. We have been at Mr Juncker's | :34:30. | :34:33. | |
house, we didn't stay long, the police arrived almost immediately. | :34:34. | :34:37. | |
They asked for our documents, they told us we couldn't film at a | :34:38. | :34:41. | |
private house and shoed us away, clearly someone doesn't want | :34:42. | :34:47. | |
journalists here. Our arrival prompted a different reaction down | :34:48. | :34:51. | |
the road. Newsnight understands Mr Juncker is still confident he will | :34:52. | :34:54. | |
be the next commission President. Here in Luxembourg they wouldn't | :34:55. | :35:05. | |
have it any other way. The latest cover of Private Eye seems to | :35:06. | :35:08. | |
capture the England mood very well. The World Cup arriving in Brazil. | :35:09. | :35:13. | |
And the pilot of the play offering to keep the engine running while | :35:14. | :35:16. | |
they play their first games. The point is not that England will be | :35:17. | :35:21. | |
easily defeated, rather than we as a nation anticipate they will. A poll | :35:22. | :35:27. | |
suggests the English are the most pessimistic of any footballing power | :35:28. | :35:30. | |
in the world. Only 4% of us expect our country to win. | :35:31. | :35:37. | |
# It's coming home # Football's coming home. | :35:38. | :35:42. | |
Oh for the 1990, look at that, songs about England winning football | :35:43. | :35:45. | |
trophies, it seems a long time ago. Where did that confidence go? People | :35:46. | :35:52. | |
are gearing up for the World Cup, our colleagues at the One Show were | :35:53. | :35:55. | |
really getting into it, and even let us have a go. England fans are | :35:56. | :36:03. | |
approaching this tournament with a lot of resignation, there is more | :36:04. | :36:06. | |
enthusiasm about the football than confidence in their team. | :36:07. | :36:10. | |
International polls and bookies' odds both imply that fans are not | :36:11. | :36:20. | |
sure that England will do very well. Across 19 different countries we | :36:21. | :36:22. | |
asked people who they thought would win the World Cup, and Brazil were | :36:23. | :36:26. | |
the strong favourites. Interestingly in England the optimisim that | :36:27. | :36:31. | |
usually accompanies a big tournament wasn't there. In 2010 when we asked | :36:32. | :36:36. | |
a similar question a third of people thought England stood a good chance | :36:37. | :36:40. | |
of winning the World Cup. Now it is 1 in 20, a big change. The YouGov | :36:41. | :36:47. | |
poll found only 4% of the English people thought the team would win. | :36:48. | :36:51. | |
That is not just low for a top team, but lower than countries like the US | :36:52. | :36:56. | |
and Japan. Who will win the World Cup? Brazil. Despite the flag on | :36:57. | :37:02. | |
your roof? We won't be in it. We are not going to win it. I have a good | :37:03. | :37:07. | |
feeling Brazil will win it. Not England? Not England. Why is that? | :37:08. | :37:13. | |
From past experience. Looking at how people bet on the competition, | :37:14. | :37:19. | |
Ladbrokes' odds imply that the public thought England have a 14% | :37:20. | :37:24. | |
chance of winning the World Cup. This year it is 3%, perhaps that is | :37:25. | :37:29. | |
because they think England is worse, afterall its FIFA ranking has been | :37:30. | :37:33. | |
drifting out of the top ten. Maybe it is because people just aren't | :37:34. | :37:39. | |
that inspired. Most importantly we are here and in one piece and the | :37:40. | :37:44. | |
mood and attitude our optimisim hasn't been dented at all. Or maybe, | :37:45. | :37:49. | |
after 48 years of hurt, England's getting a bit more like Scotland. | :37:50. | :38:02. | |
# Just don't come home too soon # Don't come home too soon | :38:03. | :38:09. | |
This was their last World Cup song. We have our guests. With us now. | :38:10. | :38:18. | |
Very nice to have you both chap, if YouGov called you up, as I'm sure | :38:19. | :38:22. | |
they have, who would you say you thought would win the World Cup? I | :38:23. | :38:26. | |
would say Brazil, but it is who I want to win the World Cup, it is | :38:27. | :38:30. | |
obviously England. The problem I have, England football fans have | :38:31. | :38:33. | |
been fairly realistic, but you start to dream and you think if we could | :38:34. | :38:37. | |
get out of the group we could get to the quarter final, if we get there | :38:38. | :38:41. | |
we can do the semis and then the final and then it is anybody's game. | :38:42. | :38:46. | |
Once you start thinking irrationally you get excited. Does it surprise | :38:47. | :38:52. | |
the number of 4%, with Costa Rico on this one? I'm proud, we have got it | :38:53. | :38:57. | |
right. 42% of the time I would have said Brazil. We have simulated the | :38:58. | :39:01. | |
tournament, tens of thousands of times, and 3% of the time England | :39:02. | :39:05. | |
win the tournament when you do that, based on our class. Therefore if 4% | :39:06. | :39:09. | |
of people think we are going to win the World Cup that is about right. | :39:10. | :39:14. | |
It was absurd when 13% of people thought we could win or people | :39:15. | :39:17. | |
thought we had a 33% chance. There are a lot of countries in the world, | :39:18. | :39:24. | |
if England had a 33% chance what about Argentina and brill still and | :39:25. | :39:30. | |
France. Do you -- Brazil and France. Do you admire our statistics or is | :39:31. | :39:35. | |
it the Roy Hodgson approach to dampen everything down, what do you | :39:36. | :39:40. | |
put it down to? I do think that successive defeats have made people | :39:41. | :39:43. | |
more realistic. If England were a team that had a 5% chance of winning | :39:44. | :39:48. | |
the World Cup, you could imagine that basically they win once in my | :39:49. | :39:52. | |
lifetime n my 80ersy. We have won once in my lifetime. People have | :39:53. | :40:00. | |
probably just cottoned on to it and not massively overestimating it. As | :40:01. | :40:05. | |
Brazil are many, many more times likely to win the World Cup, you | :40:06. | :40:11. | |
would say Brazil then. I wouldn't put it as pessimism, but on the | :40:12. | :40:16. | |
moment on Saturday at 10. 30 people are at home or in the pubs watching | :40:17. | :40:20. | |
it and the commentary starts and you say look at the leading line, | :40:21. | :40:29. | |
Sturridge and Lambert up front. Okonedo and others go we are going. | :40:30. | :40:41. | |
Only do think we will get knocked out by the knock-out line. There is | :40:42. | :40:46. | |
a 77% we will be out of the group. The Italians, 20% of who think they | :40:47. | :40:52. | |
will win the World Cup, have a 0. 3% chance of winning. Hopefully our | :40:53. | :40:58. | |
pessimism will take us through. My editor says it doesn't feel the | :40:59. | :41:02. | |
same, can you remember the song? Nobody has seen the flags? The flags | :41:03. | :41:07. | |
are out. Have you seen flags? No so many in Pinner. This is interesting, | :41:08. | :41:11. | |
because four years ago it felt it was a slightly more visible, | :41:12. | :41:16. | |
tangible, is it because we have written it off because it is Brazil | :41:17. | :41:22. | |
or do we know how the Brazilians play now, we are so much more used | :41:23. | :41:27. | |
to it. It knocked the stuffing out of us when we didn't qualify for the | :41:28. | :41:35. | |
euros. We don't do badly and it is not bad result to be in the quarter | :41:36. | :41:39. | |
finals. We are not the biggest country in the world and to be | :41:40. | :41:45. | |
between 4-8th, when you are there you get knocked out. When Argentina | :41:46. | :41:51. | |
is going through a military coup and is down it pulls off a World Cup | :41:52. | :41:55. | |
win. Spain did the same. In the middle of an economic crisis it | :41:56. | :41:59. | |
pulls it out of a hat. When we are starting to feel better and there is | :42:00. | :42:03. | |
more growth coming in? More or less likely? I wonder if you think we | :42:04. | :42:08. | |
don't concentrate, the escapism isn't so relevant? I'm not so sure, | :42:09. | :42:14. | |
it is more to do, my generation is 1966, we got to the semifinals was | :42:15. | :42:21. | |
great. When we hosts it was huge for the country. It felt like Britain | :42:22. | :42:26. | |
was changing and emerging from hooliganism, the economy growing and | :42:27. | :42:29. | |
Britpop. For my generation it felt it all came together. It has taken a | :42:30. | :42:34. | |
long time for the hangover. Before you go, how far are we going to get, | :42:35. | :42:40. | |
out of the group stages? 77. 7% we will get out of the group. That is | :42:41. | :42:48. | |
the best I can do. If If we goat get to the semis we will win it! He's | :42:49. | :42:55. | |
wrong! Thank you very much. Let's stick with the World Cup, over the | :42:56. | :42:58. | |
next week we will bring you a series of profiles of some of the most | :42:59. | :43:00. | |
important and interesting players at the tournament. We start tonight | :43:01. | :43:13. | |
with Da Silva from Croatia. It is the day Eduardo Da Silva would | :43:14. | :43:21. | |
have dreamt of growing up. Tens of thousands of fans cheering from the | :43:22. | :43:25. | |
stands and him the centre of attention in Brazil's opening game | :43:26. | :43:31. | |
against Croatia. This Brazilian boy became a Croatian man, on the 10th | :43:32. | :43:36. | |
of June it will be his job not to make the Brazilian dream, but | :43:37. | :43:40. | |
destroy it in the name of his new country. His is a remarkable Johnny | :43:41. | :43:47. | |
began when aged 15 it was Tsar grebe, rather than Rio -- Zagreb, | :43:48. | :43:52. | |
rather than Rio where his footballing future. Home was a | :43:53. | :43:58. | |
football store room and food was what the restaurant had going spare. | :43:59. | :44:05. | |
Citizenship was granted and Arsenal snapped him up in 2007. Nothing | :44:06. | :44:15. | |
seemed beyond the man dubbed "the Brazilian". He won praise for the | :44:16. | :44:18. | |
dignity of his reaction to a broken leg. But there was a real | :44:19. | :44:22. | |
uncertainty about whether he would ever play again, let alone brace a | :44:23. | :44:28. | |
World Cup. This year he helped steer his current club to a National | :44:29. | :44:33. | |
League title. But in keeping with an unconventional career, the backdrop | :44:34. | :44:36. | |
for that triumph was anything but normal. He was playing for the | :44:37. | :44:41. | |
Ukrainian Premier League. But even that will seem normal when Brazil | :44:42. | :44:50. | |
and Croatia take the field. That was John Motson talking there. We will | :44:51. | :44:53. | |
have more over the coming nights. Now the papers before we go: | :44:54. | :45:26. | |
Let's have a look at the Daily Mail, Cameron, what housing crisis, and | :45:27. | :45:40. | |
JKRowlings donation to the no campaign. And Twitter abuse. An | :45:41. | :45:47. | |
exclusive where fewer checks on overseas applicants have been | :45:48. | :45:51. | |
revealed in a briefing note. That is all we have time for. Good night all | :45:52. | :45:59. | |
of you. Discussion The weather is set fair for the bulk | :46:00. | :46:21. | |
of the UK tomorrow, England and Wales will | :46:22. | :46:22. |