Browse content similar to 05/09/2014. Check below for episodes and series from the same categories and more!
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The rebels, the Russians and the Ukrainian leader agree a safe. I | :00:00. | :00:12. | |
give an order to the chief of my military to declare a ceasefire. In | :00:13. | :00:19. | |
half an hour's time. But will it last, we speak to one of the few | :00:20. | :00:23. | |
women to heads a country within the alliance. | :00:24. | :00:28. | |
And this: IMF research has recently found, this may not surprise you | :00:29. | :00:32. | |
that the typical forecast missed every single recession, all around | :00:33. | :00:38. | |
the world, every single time. An unblemished record of complete | :00:39. | :00:42. | |
failure. Why are we so bad at seeing the future, these two might know. | :00:43. | :00:51. | |
And a treat from our proms preview season, the celebrated clarinettist, | :00:52. | :00:52. | |
Dimitri Ashkenazy. Good evening, it was an outcome of | :00:53. | :01:11. | |
sorts, 1300 miles away from the NATO summit in Wales Vladimir Putin | :01:12. | :01:16. | |
orchestrated a ceasefire between Ukrainian forces and pro-Russian | :01:17. | :01:20. | |
separatist. It endorsed an exchange of prisoners, the creation of a | :01:21. | :01:23. | |
humanitarian corridor for refugees and aid, but offered no clarity at | :01:24. | :01:27. | |
all in the future of the region. It is hard to imagine Putin's timing | :01:28. | :01:31. | |
was anything other than a desire to draw the light and the impetuous | :01:32. | :01:36. | |
from NATO, who announced a new rapid reaction spearhead force to boost | :01:37. | :01:40. | |
eastern defences with a no so rapid timetable. It will become | :01:41. | :01:45. | |
operational at the end of next year our diplomatic editor has been | :01:46. | :01:52. | |
speaking to the NATO secretary-general. | :01:53. | :01:57. | |
The summer ended as it began with the Ukrainian issue cast ago shadow. | :01:58. | :02:01. | |
There was a new rapid Reaction Force implicitly to come to the aid of the | :02:02. | :02:05. | |
Kremlin's next target, since Ukraine's President was here this | :02:06. | :02:08. | |
afternoon, conceding he has had enough. Calling an immediate | :02:09. | :02:17. | |
ceasefire. First of all I welcome any attempt to stop the bloodshed | :02:18. | :02:27. | |
and the violence and if this ceasefire is implemented in good | :02:28. | :02:34. | |
faith is could be the first step in a constructive political process. | :02:35. | :02:39. | |
One of the headline outcomes I suppose from the summit is this new | :02:40. | :02:43. | |
high-readiness tax force, you have called it a spearhead for FLAIT NATO | :02:44. | :02:48. | |
reinforcement for members who feel they are coming under pressure from | :02:49. | :02:51. | |
Russia. We have heard this afternoon it won't be ready for a year or me, | :02:52. | :02:56. | |
will that impress the Kremlin? We have already taken steps and we will | :02:57. | :03:05. | |
now enhance these measures to reinforce our collective defence. | :03:06. | :03:15. | |
But we hear that the enforcement of the new high readiness force isn't | :03:16. | :03:20. | |
started, is it one of those things that NATO like the principle but | :03:21. | :03:24. | |
look at their shoes when it comes to contributing forces? At today's | :03:25. | :03:29. | |
meetings I heard the first announcements of contributions to | :03:30. | :03:32. | |
this spearhead force and that's much sooner than we had expected. So it | :03:33. | :03:40. | |
demonstrates there is very clear determination to take the steps | :03:41. | :03:46. | |
necessary to provide effective deterrents and defence. On the | :03:47. | :03:54. | |
margins of this event, at the fancy dinners and in the hidden | :03:55. | :03:58. | |
bilaterals, the crisis in Iraq and Syria absorbed the leaders too. But | :03:59. | :04:03. | |
for all the Cummings and goings of John Kerry and Barack Obama, signs | :04:04. | :04:07. | |
that forming a grand coalition against the Islamic state is not | :04:08. | :04:11. | |
easy, despite the urgency of the cause. For Islamic extremism in | :04:12. | :04:17. | |
Syria and Iraq, what has impressed me this week is just how the | :04:18. | :04:20. | |
alliance has come together and realised we have all got to help | :04:21. | :04:27. | |
tackle this. We hear people using phrases like "there won't be | :04:28. | :04:31. | |
military action involving the UK for weeks at least", is that realistic | :04:32. | :04:35. | |
or could it happen sooner than that? There is a huge amount done already. | :04:36. | :04:44. | |
We have used the RAF to drop humanitarian supplies, both on mount | :04:45. | :04:50. | |
Singa and relieving the siege at Ameli. We have been asked to do | :04:51. | :04:54. | |
these things and we are willing to do that. We have a new Iraqi | :04:55. | :05:00. | |
Government, we hope being formed next week and the alliance committed | :05:01. | :05:03. | |
to making sure we do everything possible to help that new Government | :05:04. | :05:06. | |
in the decisions it is going to take, to help halt the advance of IS | :05:07. | :05:12. | |
and roll it back. If NATO sounds like an organisation launching its | :05:13. | :05:19. | |
sell simultaneously towards -- itself simultaneously towards two | :05:20. | :05:24. | |
and three different issues, the capability on display has to be paid | :05:25. | :05:29. | |
for. That means reversing decades of defence cuts and signing up to a new | :05:30. | :05:33. | |
ten-year target. This summit has been a clear demonstration of | :05:34. | :05:42. | |
resolve, unity, cohesion and Governments from 28 allies have | :05:43. | :05:50. | |
committed to reverse the trend of declining defence investment. And | :05:51. | :05:54. | |
also to develop the necessary military capability to address these | :05:55. | :05:58. | |
new security challenges. You know that some of these commitments, so | :05:59. | :06:02. | |
called, are interpreted in a pretty elastic way politically by some of | :06:03. | :06:07. | |
the members. When they talk about a 2% target for defence spending as a | :06:08. | :06:12. | |
proportion of their economy, in ten years time, do you think | :06:13. | :06:16. | |
realistically that NATO members will meet it? I think we will now turn a | :06:17. | :06:24. | |
corner and you will see a gradual increase in defence investments and | :06:25. | :06:29. | |
I would say the turning point is Russia's aggression against Ukraine. | :06:30. | :06:33. | |
Because that has been a wake-up call, a reminder that we cannot take | :06:34. | :06:38. | |
our security for granted. That has led to a reconsideration in many | :06:39. | :06:43. | |
capitals, as regards defence spending. On his way home Barack | :06:44. | :06:49. | |
Obama dropped in at Stonehenge. NATO's partisans like to portray it | :06:50. | :06:53. | |
as monolithic in its resolve. But the impression of the past few days | :06:54. | :06:57. | |
is of a group of leaders who have just about agreed on some new steps | :06:58. | :07:02. | |
and now wonder how to sell those to their people. | :07:03. | :07:09. | |
As well as becoming Denmark's first female Prime Minister, Helle | :07:10. | :07:13. | |
Thorning-Schmidt shot to selfie infamy when she shot one with | :07:14. | :07:17. | |
herself and Barack Obama controversially at Nelson Mandela's | :07:18. | :07:21. | |
memorial. Now she's back with the subjects of a viral photograph as | :07:22. | :07:24. | |
well as other leaders in the NATO summit in Wales. I went to meet her | :07:25. | :07:30. | |
earlier. NATO has two big issues to grapple with, Ukraine and IS, | :07:31. | :07:34. | |
addressing questions of what NATO is about, an existential question about | :07:35. | :07:38. | |
what NATO is for. Can we deal first with Ukraine. A ceasefire set at | :07:39. | :07:44. | |
5.00 tonight, will that then mean sanctions will start to be lifted? | :07:45. | :07:47. | |
First of all to your question what is NATO all about, I think one word | :07:48. | :07:52. | |
sums it up, it is about solidarity. And what we have discussed here for | :07:53. | :07:58. | |
two days is basically how we show solidarity with the most vulnerable | :07:59. | :08:01. | |
countries, that is closest to the Russian border, this is what we are | :08:02. | :08:05. | |
going to do. We have shown resolve in order, in terms of doing that. | :08:06. | :08:10. | |
And in the coming weeks and months we will see that we are showing that | :08:11. | :08:14. | |
kind of resolve. Do you need to have sanctions imposed still? It is all | :08:15. | :08:19. | |
to Russia, I mean there's, now we need to see action on the ground. | :08:20. | :08:23. | |
There is a lot of words in this conflict, now we need to see action | :08:24. | :08:27. | |
on the ground, that will determine whether we need to turn up the | :08:28. | :08:33. | |
sanctions or not. It is interesting Putin signs the agreement and yet | :08:34. | :08:38. | |
doesn't admit to troops in Ukraine, proof that you cannot trust him? I | :08:39. | :08:41. | |
don't think it is so productive to go into that discussion, the most | :08:42. | :08:45. | |
important now is to underline that if there is a negotiated agreement | :08:46. | :08:51. | |
to stop using weapons then that is what we are hoping for. We will of | :08:52. | :08:56. | |
course still prepare the sanctions and what we need basically is not to | :08:57. | :08:59. | |
have more words but see action on the ground. Yesterday the Lithuanian | :09:00. | :09:06. | |
President told Newsnight if you don't deal sufficiently with | :09:07. | :09:09. | |
President Putin over Ukraine, next time it will be a NATO country on | :09:10. | :09:14. | |
President Putin over Ukraine, next Russia's border? There is a big | :09:15. | :09:16. | |
difference between being a NATO country and not being a NATO | :09:17. | :09:20. | |
country, and I'm sure that the Russians can see that difference as | :09:21. | :09:26. | |
well. What we have done at this meeting is really confirm our | :09:27. | :09:29. | |
solidarity, not just in words, but also in action, and that means, for | :09:30. | :09:35. | |
example, that we will have strengthening our NATO headquarters | :09:36. | :09:40. | |
in Poland. We are doing air policing already, Denmark is contributing to | :09:41. | :09:45. | |
that. And other ways of showing that we have that solidarity and that we | :09:46. | :09:50. | |
are prepared to show that to our most vulnerable member states in | :09:51. | :09:55. | |
NATO. Let's turn to IS, David Cameron was very firm last night | :09:56. | :09:59. | |
when he talked about the fact that countries that paid ransom allowed | :10:00. | :10:07. | |
IS to wreak havoc, is he right? He is right, ransom is partly what is | :10:08. | :10:12. | |
funding the IS, and we have to be very serious about the question. I | :10:13. | :10:15. | |
think he's right to raise that question. But we had a Danish | :10:16. | :10:22. | |
hostage who was a photo journalist, Daniel Rayortison with James Foley | :10:23. | :10:27. | |
in Syria, he came home alive. Did the Danish Government pay a ransom? | :10:28. | :10:30. | |
We did not, we never deal with terrorists and never pay ransoms to | :10:31. | :10:34. | |
terrorists. We will never do that. But we know the French do, how can | :10:35. | :10:40. | |
NATO act in concert when a key member does that? This is a relevant | :10:41. | :10:45. | |
discussion. I appreciate the British Prime Minister bringing it up. I | :10:46. | :10:48. | |
just want to say clearly from the Danish side we never deal with | :10:49. | :10:51. | |
terrorists, we never pay ransom to terrorists. And finally, as a Prime | :10:52. | :10:55. | |
Minister and particularly as a female Prime Minister you are always | :10:56. | :11:00. | |
under scrutiny, so have you taken another selfie with Barack Obama and | :11:01. | :11:03. | |
David Cameron here at the NATO summit? I haven't, I didn't feel the | :11:04. | :11:07. | |
need to because I have one already! Prime Minister, thank you very much! | :11:08. | :11:15. | |
Very good, I like that! Just to mention the fans of Borg can find | :11:16. | :11:19. | |
out what the Danish Prime Minister thinks of that show on our YouTube | :11:20. | :11:23. | |
channel. Ahead of the NATO summit President Obama announced that the | :11:24. | :11:29. | |
US had no strategy for dealing with Islam Islamic State, today he said | :11:30. | :11:35. | |
they posed a real and long-term threat to the alliance and he and | :11:36. | :11:39. | |
John Kerry would be working to build a broader alliance to deal with the | :11:40. | :11:43. | |
terror group in the region. Laura joins me now. First of all it | :11:44. | :11:47. | |
was very much IS on the margin because the focus was on Ukraine? | :11:48. | :11:51. | |
Thats That is absolutely right. There is clearly an ambition for | :11:52. | :11:54. | |
action there. There were plenty of conversations taking place. The | :11:55. | :11:57. | |
question of practicalities and the optics here. We understand that | :11:58. | :12:02. | |
there is now a coalition of ten countries, countries like France and | :12:03. | :12:05. | |
Australia who have indicated that they are willing to participate in | :12:06. | :12:09. | |
some form of action. But crucially, for example, France expressed today | :12:10. | :12:13. | |
going public that they would be willing to take action against IS in | :12:14. | :12:18. | |
Iraq, but not in Syria. Also crucially important to America is | :12:19. | :12:21. | |
that what someone in Government described to me as respectable | :12:22. | :12:26. | |
regional partners are also involved. But significant today that the U | :12:27. | :12:31. | |
Knighted Arab Emirates was at the NATO meeting. They are not a member | :12:32. | :12:38. | |
but they were there, and they made a public statement saying unified | :12:39. | :12:42. | |
action was very important. On the home front are MPs being canvassed | :12:43. | :12:48. | |
very quietly about air strikes? There are conversations about | :12:49. | :12:50. | |
willingness to take some kind of action. This is rolling the pitch | :12:51. | :12:54. | |
rather than putting specific proposals or trying to tally the | :12:55. | :12:59. | |
numbers for any kind of vote. There are two very important conditions | :13:00. | :13:03. | |
for the UK Government. Like the Americans the UK is determined that | :13:04. | :13:07. | |
you have to have respectable regional partners involved and also | :13:08. | :13:11. | |
that a stable, or what looks like it might be a stable new Iraqi | :13:12. | :13:19. | |
Government will be in place, there would not be sectarian leadership. | :13:20. | :13:23. | |
In the diary, we have a significant British event the Scottish | :13:24. | :13:26. | |
referendum on the 18th, it is unlikely the Government will push | :13:27. | :13:28. | |
anything controversial before that. But that is a second order issue, if | :13:29. | :13:32. | |
you like. The two other big conditions are ones that would have | :13:33. | :13:35. | |
to be met and this is all before President Obama sets out his vision | :13:36. | :13:38. | |
at the UN and that's not for another couple of weeks. Thank you very much | :13:39. | :13:47. | |
indeed. If you had said at the beginning of the year that Brazil | :13:48. | :13:51. | |
would hose 7-0 in the World Cup or the British economy would be the | :13:52. | :13:56. | |
fastest growing in the G 7 you would have been laughed out of the room. | :13:57. | :14:02. | |
These are interesting times, why do the forecasters not forecast the big | :14:03. | :14:04. | |
stuff and get the little stuff wrong. We peer into the world of | :14:05. | :14:13. | |
political and economic forecasting. Consider the vital human subject of | :14:14. | :14:19. | |
economics and politics that so engage Newsnight's discerning | :14:20. | :14:23. | |
audience. When it comes to such matters we're terrible at making | :14:24. | :14:27. | |
forecasts. Why? Why is it that the fancy | :14:28. | :14:33. | |
forecasts we keep hearing from the Government, City economists and the | :14:34. | :14:38. | |
International Monetary Fund simply aren't very good. IMF research has | :14:39. | :14:43. | |
recently found, and this may not surprise you, that the typical | :14:44. | :14:46. | |
forecast missed every single recession, all around the world, | :14:47. | :14:52. | |
every single time. An unblemished record of complete failure. | :14:53. | :14:58. | |
Sometimes you just need a friend, someone close to you, someone plain | :14:59. | :15:01. | |
speaking to tell you what everyone else is thinking. In this case it | :15:02. | :15:13. | |
was the Queen, after the banking crisis she visited the London School | :15:14. | :15:17. | |
of Economics and asked its great academics why did no-one see it | :15:18. | :15:22. | |
coming? It is fair question, and not only for the economists, who | :15:23. | :15:29. | |
predicted the Arab Spring, the drop in crime in Britain, the impact of | :15:30. | :15:34. | |
the internet and the smartphone, the fall of the Berlin wall. Bad | :15:35. | :15:38. | |
forecasts matter. Governments and businesses are always trying to peer | :15:39. | :15:43. | |
into future. Forecast influences our foreign policy, the size of the army | :15:44. | :15:47. | |
or police force, resources for school systems, border controls and | :15:48. | :15:50. | |
billions flowing around the stock market. Why are forecasters so bad | :15:51. | :15:59. | |
at their jobs. One reason is that the world is a complicated place, | :16:00. | :16:03. | |
you can't see the future of Ukraine any more than you can see how many | :16:04. | :16:07. | |
Conservative MPs will defect to UKIP. It is foolish to ask for | :16:08. | :16:11. | |
predictions about the fundamentally unpredictable. A second reason is | :16:12. | :16:17. | |
that when forecasters make predictions, they are not trying to | :16:18. | :16:22. | |
see into the future. They are prone to bias. They are trying to say | :16:23. | :16:26. | |
something original, or they are cheering for their side in an | :16:27. | :16:28. | |
argument, or they are selling a product. Economic and political | :16:29. | :16:37. | |
forecasts are like horoscopes, horoscopes aren't accurate because | :16:38. | :16:40. | |
they are -- popular because they are accurate but they are engaging and | :16:41. | :16:45. | |
seeming plausible at the time. We don't have to give up on the whole | :16:46. | :16:52. | |
forecasting issue, a group of psychologists in America have been | :16:53. | :16:55. | |
running a vast geological competition with thousands of | :16:56. | :17:00. | |
participants. They have discovered a select group they call the "super | :17:01. | :17:05. | |
forecasters", they are uncannily good at making predictions. They | :17:06. | :17:09. | |
also know what can and can't be predicted. They know when they are | :17:10. | :17:13. | |
speaking with insight and when they are just randomly throwing darts. So | :17:14. | :17:20. | |
how do they do it? Here are three secrets to super forecasting. One, | :17:21. | :17:30. | |
feedback. Forecasters make predictions about casualties in Gaza | :17:31. | :17:33. | |
or the next move in Ukraine and they quickly see if the predictions are | :17:34. | :17:37. | |
right. The feedback comes again and again, so the best forecasters soon | :17:38. | :17:41. | |
learn what they can and can't predict. Two, work in teams. Super | :17:42. | :17:47. | |
forecasters are even better when they are working in teams, they | :17:48. | :17:52. | |
challenge each other. Three, prove yourself wrong. Super forecasters | :17:53. | :17:56. | |
actively try to prove themselves wrong. They try to see the opposite | :17:57. | :18:01. | |
side of any argument, probing their own thinking for weaknesses. To be | :18:02. | :18:07. | |
honest, that sounds like exhausting, thanksless, anxious work, but at | :18:08. | :18:11. | |
least now we might be able to see some things coming and that might | :18:12. | :18:15. | |
please everyone. Governments, businesses, even the Queen. | :18:16. | :18:22. | |
Tim Harford, who not, coincidently has an article in the Financial | :18:23. | :18:26. | |
Times weekend magazine about how to best predict the future. Who would | :18:27. | :18:30. | |
predict I got the score wrong, it was 7-1, Brazil versus Germany. We | :18:31. | :18:37. | |
have Ben Lauderdale of the LSE who has developed a model to predict the | :18:38. | :18:41. | |
next election, and Jackie Stevens from Northwestern University joins | :18:42. | :18:45. | |
us too. Jackie Stevens your argument is that it is just a bad thing to | :18:46. | :18:52. | |
try to predict the future at all? That's correct, I don't see a lot of | :18:53. | :18:57. | |
value from the kind of short-term forecasting that social scientists | :18:58. | :19:01. | |
have been relatively successful at, or the kind of selection modelling | :19:02. | :19:06. | |
that doesn't seem to be especially useful, and the kinds of important | :19:07. | :19:11. | |
events about which the public would have something at stake, political | :19:12. | :19:14. | |
scientists and social scientists have not fared very well at | :19:15. | :19:18. | |
predicts. For example election modelling, you would say withdraw | :19:19. | :19:23. | |
funding for that kind of prediction that political scientists undertake? | :19:24. | :19:27. | |
Well I wouldn't say withdraw all funding, my argument is that funding | :19:28. | :19:32. | |
should be distributed on the basis of people having political science | :19:33. | :19:37. | |
PhDs by the NSF in the United States, on a random basis and not | :19:38. | :19:43. | |
based on particular social networks or past peer reviewed publications. | :19:44. | :19:52. | |
Here in the studio we have Ben Lauderdale a daily bread forecaster. | :19:53. | :19:55. | |
What is your general election forecast at the moment? Our best | :19:56. | :20:02. | |
guess is Conservatives 301 Labour 295. However one of the things we | :20:03. | :20:05. | |
try to emphasise in the forecast is uncertainty. The fact that we don't | :20:06. | :20:09. | |
know that number. The margin of error is plus or minus 50 seats | :20:10. | :20:12. | |
either side of that for both of the two parties. What that tells us is | :20:13. | :20:18. | |
not this particular number will happen on election day, it would be | :20:19. | :20:21. | |
foolhardy, but instead more likely than not there will be a hung | :20:22. | :20:28. | |
parliament. But given what we know from history, geography and | :20:29. | :20:32. | |
demography and polls available bringing that information together, | :20:33. | :20:35. | |
there is fairly good evidence that a hung parliament is likely but either | :20:36. | :20:40. | |
party could still manage a majority. Dr Stevens point is that is useless | :20:41. | :20:44. | |
for the public, that information doesn't help the public, we should | :20:45. | :20:48. | |
be concentrating on forecasting things that will actually make a | :20:49. | :20:52. | |
difference? I won't claim that forecasting the next general | :20:53. | :20:56. | |
election is the most important task for social scientists, I do think it | :20:57. | :20:58. | |
is interesting and important. There are lots of stakes to the next | :20:59. | :21:01. | |
general election in the UK, for a range of policy areas, there are | :21:02. | :21:05. | |
stakeholders in those areas, people who care about immigration policy, | :21:06. | :21:09. | |
who care about social welfare. So often you get it wrong? It is | :21:10. | :21:13. | |
whether we get it wrong or right on any given case, it is a worthwhile | :21:14. | :21:17. | |
exercise to try to get better at these forecasts. Is it a worthwhile | :21:18. | :21:22. | |
exercise to get better at that, is it also a worthwhile exercise to get | :21:23. | :21:26. | |
better at economic forecasting given what Tim Harford said, that it is so | :21:27. | :21:30. | |
often wrong? Well, I think there is opportunity cost in the ways that we | :21:31. | :21:34. | |
invest our resources in the social sciences. And so to the extent that | :21:35. | :21:38. | |
we put our money into trying to guess the next general election we | :21:39. | :21:41. | |
are not putting our money into developing let's say the kind of | :21:42. | :21:46. | |
symbolic or cultural or other kinds of litties that might be important | :21:47. | :21:50. | |
for helping the public orient themselves from Elementary School on | :21:51. | :21:54. | |
ward to understand how events interact in a complex world. And | :21:55. | :21:58. | |
instead by reducing our questions to those that can be answered by | :21:59. | :22:03. | |
quantitative methods we foreclose real opportunities to try to enrich | :22:04. | :22:08. | |
our understandings more generally. Would that not be more productive? I | :22:09. | :22:12. | |
think having a range of topics under consideration is important. I don't | :22:13. | :22:15. | |
think it is a very compelling argument to say we shouldn't do any | :22:16. | :22:18. | |
of this. I certainly wouldn't recommend that everyone be engaged | :22:19. | :22:23. | |
in these kinds of forecasting projects but they have an important | :22:24. | :22:26. | |
role to play in checking that we know what we say we know. What about | :22:27. | :22:31. | |
Tim Harford saying that super forecasters do different things. | :22:32. | :22:35. | |
They review their work all the time. They work in teams and actually the | :22:36. | :22:41. | |
predicting the, the wrong predictions are as valuable as the | :22:42. | :22:44. | |
right predictions you are not drilling down? That is absolutely | :22:45. | :22:48. | |
right. I work in a team with colleagues at the University of East | :22:49. | :22:58. | |
Anglia, and Durham, we do bounce ideas off each other and we go back | :22:59. | :23:02. | |
to 2010 to see how good the predictions are, we are not perfect, | :23:03. | :23:07. | |
we miss lots of seats, we do as well as anyone at the time or maybe a | :23:08. | :23:10. | |
little better. At the end of a week when opinion polls in the Scottish | :23:11. | :23:14. | |
referendum have tightened from just a few points from a commanding lead | :23:15. | :23:21. | |
for the Better Together campaign, Freeland emits a howl of pain at the | :23:22. | :23:24. | |
possibility of Scotland leaving the union in less than two weeks time, | :23:25. | :23:28. | |
he writes if Britain loses Scotland it will feel like an amputation. He | :23:29. | :23:33. | |
worries that a poll might show a small lead for yes, and he says the | :23:34. | :23:39. | |
British will become an extinct term. To get reflections on the last two | :23:40. | :23:41. | |
weeks of campaigning Jonathan Freeland is here, and joining us | :23:42. | :23:47. | |
from Scotland is Professor Philips O'Brien, part of the yes campaign. | :23:48. | :23:54. | |
Jonathan Freeland, first of all, do you think the tone you are adapting | :23:55. | :23:58. | |
is one that should have been adopted from the start? I'm not sure it | :23:59. | :24:03. | |
would have been helpful for the campaign, the effect on people like | :24:04. | :24:06. | |
me outside Scotland isn't the criteria by which the electorate in | :24:07. | :24:09. | |
this contest are deciding. The choice they are making is what kind | :24:10. | :24:13. | |
of Scotland is better for Scotland. One that is independent or one part | :24:14. | :24:18. | |
of the union. So the effective break-up on England and Wales and | :24:19. | :24:26. | |
Northern Ireland isn't th germaine. You seem to have not necessarily | :24:27. | :24:30. | |
woken up but feeling it more viscerally now, do you think in the | :24:31. | :24:34. | |
next two weeks that there will be a different atmosphere in England? I | :24:35. | :24:37. | |
hope so. I have been writing on this for quite a long time. I haven't | :24:38. | :24:41. | |
just woken up to it, but the prospect of a yes vote will | :24:42. | :24:45. | |
concentrate the mind. So far it hasn't been concentrated, I think | :24:46. | :24:48. | |
people have thought it is important but it will be a no vote. Now there | :24:49. | :24:52. | |
is the prospect of a yes. I attached you to the yes campaign, which I | :24:53. | :24:55. | |
shouldn't have said but I should have said you are a yes supporter? | :24:56. | :24:59. | |
I'm an academic and tried to be evenhanded about the whole campaign. | :25:00. | :25:03. | |
You are trying to be neutral in this, tell me what you think about | :25:04. | :25:08. | |
the emphasis on the economy as the balancering ram of both sides -- | :25:09. | :25:12. | |
battering ram of both sides? It was always going to come down to that | :25:13. | :25:15. | |
any way. Ultimately if people vote, one of the most interesting polls | :25:16. | :25:20. | |
from years ago if you were going to be ?500 worse off you would vote | :25:21. | :25:23. | |
against independence, if you felt you would be ?500 better off you | :25:24. | :25:26. | |
would vote for it. The economy would be the defining issue of it. I think | :25:27. | :25:31. | |
what has come down now is they are trying to sell two very different | :25:32. | :25:35. | |
visions of what would happen after independence, the yes campaign's | :25:36. | :25:38. | |
vision is things would get better. That Scotland could go off on its | :25:39. | :25:43. | |
own and the unionists are saying it is simply too risky. Now we are in a | :25:44. | :25:48. | |
situation where things are going to perhaps get you know pretty angry, | :25:49. | :25:54. | |
in these last ten days a number of events are going to happen that | :25:55. | :25:57. | |
perhaps will increase it. Where do you think that the key moments will | :25:58. | :26:00. | |
come. What would be the key issues, what we are having now is we are | :26:01. | :26:04. | |
having a ride north by everybody from John Prescott to David Cameron, | :26:05. | :26:08. | |
probably together in the same bus? I would say angry would be really bad, | :26:09. | :26:12. | |
if it gets angry then that would not be good for the no campaign. I think | :26:13. | :26:16. | |
if you look at the Canadian experience what you want is a real | :26:17. | :26:19. | |
love bomb, and not from politicians and celebrities. I think what's | :26:20. | :26:24. | |
happened up in Scotland is there is letters from celebrities, there are | :26:25. | :26:27. | |
politicians saying stay in the union. The interesting thing in the | :26:28. | :26:30. | |
Canadian experience is average Canadians outside of question beck | :26:31. | :26:36. | |
weretation -- Quebec, were saying please day, we want you to. That | :26:37. | :26:40. | |
would be more effective than politicians and celebrities. In the | :26:41. | :26:44. | |
Quebec case you had the emotional tightening of the vote in ten days | :26:45. | :26:48. | |
and in the end it didn't deliver, there is a lot to play for? The last | :26:49. | :26:52. | |
ten days are crucial, the fact that people are coming up, there may be a | :26:53. | :26:56. | |
feeling in Scotland that will say what took you so long now you come | :26:57. | :27:01. | |
up in the last two week, some of the messages could be | :27:02. | :27:04. | |
counter-productive. In six days out from the referendum there is the | :27:05. | :27:11. | |
prospect of a UKIP rally in Glasgow and in Edinburgh a very strong | :27:12. | :27:17. | |
loyalist Orange Order march, both big events. I mean putting your own | :27:18. | :27:22. | |
politics aside, looking at the impact of UKIP on a Scottish | :27:23. | :27:26. | |
electorate what might that achieve? It is troubling for the no campaign, | :27:27. | :27:30. | |
because that will tar them with the brush they don't want to be tarred | :27:31. | :27:34. | |
with. UKIP did pretty well in the elections in Scotland, 10% of the | :27:35. | :27:38. | |
vote, but that is a small constituency, what they need to know | :27:39. | :27:41. | |
that may turn off, huge numbers of other Scottish voters who think it | :27:42. | :27:44. | |
is little England nationalism they don't want any part of. If I was in | :27:45. | :27:50. | |
the no campaign I would be telling Nigel Farage and the Orange Order to | :27:51. | :27:54. | |
stay away. Absolutely, one of the things that showed that Scots could | :27:55. | :27:59. | |
vote for independence if they believed the United Kingdom would | :28:00. | :28:04. | |
leave the EU. If UKIP comes and brings a big thing about the union | :28:05. | :28:08. | |
they are more likely to help break it up. Behind you you have the | :28:09. | :28:13. | |
Clyde, in the hydro, one of the big new event places on the 11th | :28:14. | :28:17. | |
September, there will be a BBC debate that has either 10,000 or | :28:18. | :28:22. | |
12,000 new voters in it. That's going to be broadcast on BBC, the | :28:23. | :28:27. | |
impact of first-time voters it was thought to be the great vote winner | :28:28. | :28:30. | |
but that hasn't proved to be the case at the moment? I think it will | :28:31. | :28:34. | |
be an extraordinary turnout. I think it is one of the things we can't | :28:35. | :28:38. | |
really use previous models, I was interested in your earlier | :28:39. | :28:41. | |
discussion. Because the turnout is so heavy, it is impossible to say | :28:42. | :28:43. | |
what the key constituencies are going to be, will it be the young | :28:44. | :28:48. | |
voters, older voters, people who haven't voted before. We are simply | :28:49. | :28:51. | |
into a grey area because it is such an important vote and will have such | :28:52. | :28:56. | |
a high turnout. Thank you very much indeed. That is just about all for | :28:57. | :29:00. | |
this week, we leave you with another live preview of next week's prom, | :29:01. | :29:05. | |
this time with a renowned clarinettist, Dimitri Ashkenazy, | :29:06. | :29:08. | |
he's performing the final melody from the end of Sir Peter Maxwell | :29:09. | :29:18. | |
Davies's Strathclyde Concerto No 4. Good night. | :29:19. | :29:48. |