Browse content similar to 18/09/2014. Check below for episodes and series from the same categories and more!
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The Referendum is over, the polling stations are closed and the | :00:07. | :00:12. | |
ballot-boxes are locked. Now will it be independence or the union for | :00:13. | :00:14. | |
Scotland? Parliament of a country standing on | :00:15. | :00:16. | |
Parliament of a country standing on than 300 years? | :00:17. | :00:35. | |
ALEX SALMOND: I'm honoured to announce that we will hold | :00:36. | :00:39. | |
Scotland's Referendum, an historic day when the people will decide | :00:40. | :00:44. | |
Scotland's future. Delegates, it's game on for | :00:45. | :00:49. | |
Scotland. I assume the flag is saw tire, I | :00:50. | :00:57. | |
assume our capital will still be Edinburgh Burkes you still can't | :00:58. | :01:01. | |
tell us what currency we'll have. We love our land, we love our people, | :01:02. | :01:09. | |
we want freedom. If you don't like this government, | :01:10. | :01:13. | |
it won't last forever, but if you leave the United Kingdom, that will | :01:14. | :01:22. | |
be forever. This is everyone's flag, everyone's | :01:23. | :01:32. | |
country, everyone's culture. I think it's an extremely important day for | :01:33. | :01:35. | |
Scotland, probably the most important day of my life. | :01:36. | :01:52. | |
Good evening from Edinburgh. There has been no day like it in the | :01:53. | :01:59. | |
history of Scotland. This referendum has electrified the country and by | :02:00. | :02:02. | |
first light we should know where stands Scotland. Outside the | :02:03. | :02:06. | |
Scottish Parliament where we are with the Palace of Holyrood House | :02:07. | :02:10. | |
behind us, we're here almost two years after the referendum on | :02:11. | :02:13. | |
whether Scotland should become an independent country was announced | :02:14. | :02:16. | |
jointly by the First Minister of Scotland, Alex Salmond and the Prime | :02:17. | :02:19. | |
Minister, David Cameron. But it was in the last six weeks that the | :02:20. | :02:23. | |
campaign really caught fire and today from the island of aran to | :02:24. | :02:27. | |
Aberdeen, from Orkney to Dumfries, there were queues at polling | :02:28. | :02:32. | |
stations saltires, Union flags, Yes banners and badges saying no. | :02:33. | :02:35. | |
Tonight we'll be speaking to politicians, writers and business | :02:36. | :02:39. | |
people. But first our chief correspondent Cubans Cubans has been | :02:40. | :02:43. | |
sampling the atmosphere all day. She joins us from the count at Ingleston | :02:44. | :02:47. | |
show ground on the edge of Edinburgh. What have you been | :02:48. | :02:52. | |
hearing? Tense doesn't really begin to cover it. If you've ever imagined | :02:53. | :02:57. | |
what an election count for a whole country looks like, well this is it. | :02:58. | :03:01. | |
In this huge hall, and the counters here have an enormous job ahead of | :03:02. | :03:06. | |
them. I've been hearing something really not entirely unexpected but | :03:07. | :03:10. | |
rather extraordinary. I'm told that by about 7.00 this evening turn-out | :03:11. | :03:15. | |
had already hit about 75%. So these counters who are just now starting | :03:16. | :03:19. | |
to get down to work have a long night and a very, very big job ahead | :03:20. | :03:25. | |
of them. Apparently in some parts of the country turn-out was hitting | :03:26. | :03:30. | |
94%. The big question, of course, is which box did they put a cross in. | :03:31. | :03:34. | |
The polls have been extremely tight and some people though are willing | :03:35. | :03:38. | |
to make predictions. One of them is with us here tonight. Peter Kellner | :03:39. | :03:43. | |
from the polling company YouGov, you are courageous enough to put a | :03:44. | :03:47. | |
number on it this evening. Yes, our prediction tonight is that No has | :03:48. | :03:52. | |
won this referendum by 54% with Yes getting 46%. We've polled 1800 | :03:53. | :03:56. | |
people today on-line after they voted, people we spoke to earlier | :03:57. | :04:01. | |
this week, so we can look at what happened to real people and there's | :04:02. | :04:05. | |
ban clear shift today, a small but clear shift from Yes to No. We also | :04:06. | :04:10. | |
think that the No voters in the end were slightly more determined to | :04:11. | :04:14. | |
turn-out than the Yes voters. Last night, Laura, I said there was an | :04:15. | :04:19. | |
80% chance of a No victory, now at the risk of looking utterly | :04:20. | :04:22. | |
ridiculous in eight hour's time, I would say it's a 99% chance of a No | :04:23. | :04:27. | |
victory. We appreciate you taking the risk of looking wrong by the | :04:28. | :04:33. | |
morning, but the polls in this particular event, can it be trusted | :04:34. | :04:38. | |
in the same way as others? Can they, with such huge turn-out and an | :04:39. | :04:43. | |
unprecedented question being asked? The unprecedented question does | :04:44. | :04:45. | |
cause difficulty because we can't find out what happened last time | :04:46. | :04:48. | |
because there isn't a last time. The turn-out helps us, as a pollster I'm | :04:49. | :04:52. | |
more nervous about predicting the results of low turn-out elections | :04:53. | :04:55. | |
like European elections because you're never quite sure who will | :04:56. | :04:59. | |
turn out at all. With a high turn-out election you're pretty sure | :05:00. | :05:01. | |
that anybody who says they're going to say yes or no will turn out. But | :05:02. | :05:06. | |
today we think the No voters, at the margin, that little bit more | :05:07. | :05:09. | |
determined to vote than the Yes voters. Thank you very much. Once | :05:10. | :05:17. | |
again, that prediction from YouGov tonight is 54%, 46 with the unionist | :05:18. | :05:25. | |
and No campaign in the lead. That gap is bigger that the polls have | :05:26. | :05:31. | |
said in the recent days. Speaking to people today, casting their ballots, | :05:32. | :05:36. | |
making sometimes those very last-minute decisions, it's been | :05:37. | :05:38. | |
striking how difficult some people have found it to make their minds | :05:39. | :05:44. | |
up, even at this late stage. The stakes really, forgive the cliche, | :05:45. | :05:46. | |
for a lot of people could not feel any higher. Out and about in the | :05:47. | :05:49. | |
streets of Scotland there was a tension you could almost taste. | :05:50. | :05:59. | |
They have chosen, but are yet to know. Which path their lives, their | :06:00. | :06:07. | |
country will take. Tonight they wait. He waits to know if he'll be | :06:08. | :06:15. | |
the first leader of a different country, a Scotland that breaks | :06:16. | :06:20. | |
away. Or a place that stays together, even if divided. | :06:21. | :06:30. | |
More voters came than ever before. But this flowering of democracy can | :06:31. | :06:38. | |
have an ugly face. You spend money or war but can't defend the | :06:39. | :06:42. | |
pensioners. So you turn your back on the world. Not the rest of the | :06:43. | :06:45. | |
world. You will mate. We've been a caring and sharing society. See | :06:46. | :06:49. | |
that, that's your referendum for me. How are you going to vote? I'm | :06:50. | :06:54. | |
voting yes. Why? Because inwant independence. Westminster have | :06:55. | :07:00. | |
robbed me of my vote. What do you think will happen? It could go | :07:01. | :07:04. | |
either way. I think Yes will get there. What will it mean to you if | :07:05. | :07:10. | |
it is a Yes? Torture. This is the start of something big, I think, | :07:11. | :07:15. | |
maybe for people to really get out there and make their voices heard. | :07:16. | :07:21. | |
Still undecided but the polling station is open. Still undecided. | :07:22. | :07:26. | |
Why haven't you? I don't know about all about what's happening. What are | :07:27. | :07:32. | |
you going to do? I don't know. I'll have a good think today. For some it | :07:33. | :07:37. | |
couldn't matter more, Paul worries in an independent Scotland he would | :07:38. | :07:40. | |
lose his job in Glasgow's ship yards. For me personally, yeah, | :07:41. | :07:45. | |
exactly, it's concerning what might mean for me, I might have move away, | :07:46. | :07:51. | |
go down south to work. It's really concerning, it might have a | :07:52. | :07:53. | |
significant impact on my own personal life. So you might move if | :07:54. | :07:57. | |
it's Yes? It might be the case that I have to move to get alternative | :07:58. | :08:02. | |
employment elsewhere. This is tense, it is a difficult, for a very simple | :08:03. | :08:05. | |
reason. People here have just never had to make a decision this big | :08:06. | :08:11. | |
before. But tonight he waits to know if his arguments for the union have | :08:12. | :08:20. | |
beaten back a clamour for change. Political organisation for | :08:21. | :08:23. | |
independence has stretched into new pockets of the country. So will | :08:24. | :08:32. | |
disillusion SEEP back in if their hopes are not met? Apprehensive, but | :08:33. | :08:38. | |
excited. Hoping for an independent result. Blame is already being cast. | :08:39. | :08:46. | |
Here workers race to paint over a polling station dobbed with | :08:47. | :08:50. | |
threatening graffiti. I'm saying I was accused of encouraging the | :08:51. | :08:54. | |
graffiti on this hall which is a load of tripe. Predictions have | :08:55. | :09:00. | |
though nearly always put the unionists | :09:01. | :09:00. | |
though nearly always put the Edinburgh, the Yes campaign have | :09:01. | :09:06. | |
worked their own intricate numbers. What they claim, the biggest ever | :09:07. | :09:09. | |
operation in Scotland to get the vote out. If those efforts don't | :09:10. | :09:17. | |
work though, activist Fran Gilhooley will be nothing less than broken | :09:18. | :09:21. | |
hearted? I will be utterly, utterly gutted. It's everything we do. It's | :09:22. | :09:26. | |
everything we are. You say it's everything to you. Right now, | :09:27. | :09:30. | |
technically we are a sovereign state because now we have the decision | :09:31. | :09:35. | |
now, right now. Are we going to keep it? Or are we going to hand it back? | :09:36. | :09:41. | |
Because now we've actually got it, for this day. And this evening, | :09:42. | :09:54. | |
excitement, yes, anxiety too. After more than 800 days of argument, this | :09:55. | :09:59. | |
country knows good and bad things can come to those who wait. | :10:00. | :10:05. | |
We'll be hearing from Laura later in the programme. But I'm joined by the | :10:06. | :10:09. | |
Scottish businessman Jim McColl, Catherine MacLeod who used to advise | :10:10. | :10:13. | |
Alastair Darling and the journalist John Harris. First of all, Jim | :10:14. | :10:16. | |
McColl, you really backed the Yes campaign, you sent out more than | :10:17. | :10:21. | |
half a million letters, that poll was only one poll, but it would be | :10:22. | :10:24. | |
presumably incredibly disappointing for you? Yes, it would be. I think | :10:25. | :10:29. | |
it's early in the evening and it's very brave to make a prediction like | :10:30. | :10:33. | |
that. When you look at what Laura was saying about turn-out in some | :10:34. | :10:37. | |
areas of 94%, how has it felt to you in the country? Real excitement and | :10:38. | :10:43. | |
expectation and hope. It's a kind of carnival atmosphere. People are | :10:44. | :10:46. | |
excited about it. Do you think it has galvanised people to think about | :10:47. | :10:49. | |
politics the way they haven't done before? Absolutely, you hear the | :10:50. | :10:52. | |
numbers on the turn-out. It's galvanised the population. I tell | :10:53. | :10:57. | |
you who did galvanise the population, Katlehong RIN, that was | :10:58. | :11:00. | |
the Yes campaign -- Catherine, that was the Yes campaign, you have to | :11:01. | :11:04. | |
take your hat off to them, they absolutely came from behind and made | :11:05. | :11:07. | |
the weather. I don't know if they made the weather, they certainly | :11:08. | :11:12. | |
came from way behind although I think it was expected that the polls | :11:13. | :11:16. | |
would always tighten. It was visible. I agree with Jim, it was an | :11:17. | :11:22. | |
exhilarating and exciting campaign. I was in Glasgow yesterday and there | :11:23. | :11:25. | |
were kids on the school talking about it on the street. My nephew in | :11:26. | :11:30. | |
Inverness, there was excitement between him and his pals to vote | :11:31. | :11:34. | |
today. That suggests there was a great deal of excitement and the | :11:35. | :11:37. | |
accusation levelled at the Better Together Campaign run by your | :11:38. | :11:41. | |
ex-boss was that it was consistently negative and that really played | :11:42. | :11:45. | |
badly during the campaign? Well, consistently negative. I think in | :11:46. | :11:50. | |
Scotland at the moment asking awkward questions, I think Alistair | :11:51. | :11:53. | |
ended the campaign asking the same questions he asked at the beginning | :11:54. | :11:56. | |
and what he would say is that he still didn't get an answer. If it is | :11:57. | :12:00. | |
negative to say what is our currency, are we going to be a | :12:01. | :12:04. | |
member of the European Union or NATO or what is going to happen? Perhaps | :12:05. | :12:09. | |
that's then it was negative. But perhaps it might be how do you make | :12:10. | :12:16. | |
no a positive? If Alistair had got sensible answers he might have | :12:17. | :12:19. | |
changed questions. And Alistair's old boss Gordon Brown had to ride to | :12:20. | :12:23. | |
the rescue at the end. How did that feel. We're hearing suggestions that | :12:24. | :12:27. | |
Gordon Brown was put up to lead the Better Together campaign but David | :12:28. | :12:30. | |
Cameron vetoed that? I have absolutely no idea. You're closer to | :12:31. | :12:35. | |
these people than me. I've never heard that. I always intended Gordon | :12:36. | :12:40. | |
to enter the campaign, his style is different from the other. I don't | :12:41. | :12:44. | |
think he did ride to the rescue, the pair played the roles they were | :12:45. | :12:48. | |
expect today play. I'll come to you John Harris, but we're going to | :12:49. | :12:52. | |
speak to the chair of the Yes campaign, Denis Canavan. First of | :12:53. | :12:56. | |
all, you probably heard on the basis of that one YouGov poll, Peter | :12:57. | :13:01. | |
Kellner saying that actually it looks like 54 versus 46 that it will | :13:02. | :13:07. | |
be a No victory. Can I have your reaction to that early poll, nothing | :13:08. | :13:13. | |
definite about it, of course? That one poll does not tally with the | :13:14. | :13:17. | |
reports that we're getting back from our campaign workers. We have fought | :13:18. | :13:26. | |
a very, very successful grass-roots community-based campaign with | :13:27. | :13:29. | |
thousands of trained campaign workers stretching all the way from | :13:30. | :13:34. | |
the northern isles to the Borders of Scotland. I think at this stage I | :13:35. | :13:42. | |
would rather take the feedback from them, albeit anecdotal rather than | :13:43. | :13:46. | |
just one particular opinion poll. We'll see once the ballot-boxes | :13:47. | :13:49. | |
opened and the votes are counted. I am still optimistic about a good | :13:50. | :13:56. | |
result. But if that vote turns out to be true, and in fact in any way | :13:57. | :14:01. | |
Better Together has got over the line, what is Alex Salmond going to | :14:02. | :14:04. | |
say to the people of Scotland tomorrow? Well, that will be up to | :14:05. | :14:10. | |
Alex Salmond obviously. I'm not a spokesperson for Alex Salmond. I | :14:11. | :14:13. | |
have always said that as chair of the advisory board of the Yes | :14:14. | :14:19. | |
Scotland campaign we're a broad, inclusive campaign consisting of | :14:20. | :14:23. | |
representatives of various parties. If you're asking me what I would say | :14:24. | :14:28. | |
in that event, I would say whatever the result I think the people of | :14:29. | :14:33. | |
Scotland ought to work together to build a better Scotland, a more | :14:34. | :14:37. | |
prosperous Scotland and a fairer Scotland. Thank you very much. | :14:38. | :14:42. | |
Coming back to you, John Harris. Who are the victors in all this, are | :14:43. | :14:48. | |
they people rather than Westminster? Yes, in a sense that people have | :14:49. | :14:53. | |
either become acquainted for the first time, or reacquainted with | :14:54. | :14:56. | |
thinking about politics and the tremendously profound way, whether | :14:57. | :15:00. | |
Yes or No. I'm sort of an instinctively a greater fan of the | :15:01. | :15:05. | |
Yes campaign. In the last weeks, you're saying, down the street, I | :15:06. | :15:10. | |
would speak to waiters, bus drivers, there's a natural conversation about | :15:11. | :15:14. | |
it, not forced. It's extraordinary. It's turned round that politics | :15:15. | :15:17. | |
becomes part of everybody's discourse. Yes, when it slips out of | :15:18. | :15:21. | |
the way that Westminster politics has tended to do, which is all | :15:22. | :15:25. | |
couched into meaningless phrases about hard working families and a | :15:26. | :15:29. | |
future fair for all and when it becomes about the fundamentals. | :15:30. | :15:34. | |
These are the things we're told in England will alienate people, | :15:35. | :15:36. | |
talking about good society and stuff like that. But what you find is that | :15:37. | :15:41. | |
that's what gets people talking. Except that it may be that the | :15:42. | :15:44. | |
appeal to people's pockets and the scare factor of what might happen to | :15:45. | :15:47. | |
business might have played well. I know you were critical of that but | :15:48. | :15:51. | |
actually it matters to people. People were told by business, by | :15:52. | :15:57. | |
Standard Life by RBS that actually there was going to be a scare, that | :15:58. | :16:00. | |
businesses would fold, they would take their headquarters out of | :16:01. | :16:03. | |
Scotland. What do you make of that? I think there was a lot of | :16:04. | :16:09. | |
scaremongering going on, around the pound to start with, where Cameron | :16:10. | :16:13. | |
clearly identified three conditions needed, and what we got from the | :16:14. | :16:17. | |
other side was we're not going to negotiate. That's scaremongering. | :16:18. | :16:22. | |
But at the end of the day, if you have got a big business community | :16:23. | :16:28. | |
which puts its force behind Better Together, then they're the ones that | :16:29. | :16:32. | |
are going to be, push the point across. It was a sample of big | :16:33. | :16:35. | |
businesses. You have to remember that in the UK and in Scotland in | :16:36. | :16:43. | |
particular most businesses are Sme,s small and immediate sized | :16:44. | :16:47. | |
enterprises. We saw a few leaders of some of the big businesses | :16:48. | :16:50. | |
strongarmed by Downing Street to go out after the Yes campaign showed a | :16:51. | :16:55. | |
lead last weekend. Catherine MacLeod, that whole idea of pulling | :16:56. | :17:00. | |
business in and making - do you think it actually would have made | :17:01. | :17:03. | |
any difference indeed whether tomorrow morning we get an | :17:04. | :17:06. | |
independence vote or not to business in Scotland? They said it did. It's | :17:07. | :17:10. | |
to the for me to say that it did or it didn't. I think it was back to | :17:11. | :17:15. | |
the, they probably were strongarmed out. It was better that they were | :17:16. | :17:19. | |
strongarmed out to say what they had to say than saying nothing. But it's | :17:20. | :17:24. | |
actually a facet of Westminster politics that people hate. If people | :17:25. | :17:29. | |
like ASDA and Marks and Spencers and John Lewis say prices will go up and | :17:30. | :17:34. | |
RBS. After being told by David Cameron. Whether after seeing David | :17:35. | :17:39. | |
Cameron or not. It explains quite a shift in the polls towards the end. | :17:40. | :17:43. | |
It explains - I think the Yes vote was always going to harden quickly | :17:44. | :17:47. | |
and when people saw the risk they were prepared to say no. It's not | :17:48. | :17:51. | |
the greatest shame of the No campaign. Business would inevitably | :17:52. | :17:53. | |
say those things, the greatest shame to me was that is it struck me that | :17:54. | :17:57. | |
progressive politics in Scotland in the form of the Labour Party, A, | :17:58. | :18:01. | |
seems to be organisationally broken and seems to have lost the ability | :18:02. | :18:09. | |
to occupy the praise optimist. 30% of VOEFRTS voters endered the idea | :18:10. | :18:14. | |
of saying yesterday. -- entertained the idea of saying yes. When David | :18:15. | :18:19. | |
Cameron vetoed Alex Salmond's plans to put the option of Devo Max on the | :18:20. | :18:21. | |
ballot-paper. He promised there would be new powers for Scotland but | :18:22. | :18:24. | |
they would only be revealed in the event of a No vote today. But as the | :18:25. | :18:29. | |
opinion polls tightened, the No campaign panicked and that resolve | :18:30. | :18:34. | |
flew out of the window. On Monday Cameron, Clegg and Darling promised | :18:35. | :18:38. | |
Scotland lots of presence. Extra revenue raising powers, keeping the | :18:39. | :18:41. | |
Barnett form a and more freedom to spend on the NHS but that went down | :18:42. | :18:44. | |
badly just about everywhere else in the UK. So as our Political Editor, | :18:45. | :18:48. | |
Allegra Stratton reports, whether we wake up to an independent Scotland | :18:49. | :18:51. | |
tomorrow or not, the reality is that a huge political storm is about to | :18:52. | :18:52. | |
blow up. It's 6.00 on Friday 19th September. | :18:53. | :19:07. | |
This is Today with Justin Webb and Jim - the headline this morning, | :19:08. | :19:11. | |
Scotland has voted for independence, bringing to an end a 300-year-old | :19:12. | :19:17. | |
political union. Alex Salmond declared a new dawn had broken over | :19:18. | :19:24. | |
a free and fair Scotland... A whirlwind is tearing through | :19:25. | :19:29. | |
Westminster. The articles of union were signed three centuries ago here | :19:30. | :19:33. | |
on the site of the Palace of Whitehall, but now, at dawn, the | :19:34. | :19:38. | |
last Prime Minister of the United Kingdom rings Alex Salmond to | :19:39. | :19:43. | |
acknowledge they're deFURNG. -- defunct. David Cameron makes a | :19:44. | :19:48. | |
statement and calls an emergency Cabinet while liaising with the Bank | :19:49. | :19:51. | |
of England to steady the markets. Parliament is recalled on Saturday, | :19:52. | :19:54. | |
the first time since the Falklands, this time it's more serious. Many | :19:55. | :19:58. | |
people in the Conservative Party and many people on the back benches | :19:59. | :20:05. | |
think this would be a tragedy and consequently those people will | :20:06. | :20:11. | |
believe as I do that -- the Prime Minister needs to consider his | :20:12. | :20:14. | |
situation considerably. David Cameron will face calls for a motion | :20:15. | :20:19. | |
of No confidence that could trigger an early election. He might embrace | :20:20. | :20:24. | |
this and go to the British people on a platform of who powers he would | :20:25. | :20:28. | |
separate Scotland. But there are people in his own party who think he | :20:29. | :20:35. | |
might have to resign itself. And a caretaker Prime Minister could be | :20:36. | :20:39. | |
within a matter of weeks much then there are others and this faction | :20:40. | :20:42. | |
even includes his fiercest critics who think David Cameron should stick | :20:43. | :20:46. | |
around and sort out a mess of his own making. Undoubtedly David | :20:47. | :20:49. | |
Cameron will have a lot of pressure against him. The man who lost | :20:50. | :20:53. | |
Scotland will be the jibe used. But it's very difficult to think of an | :20:54. | :20:57. | |
immediate alternative. We're into such unforeseen circumstances. Such | :20:58. | :21:02. | |
unstable; the Tory MPs are very angry both what will have led to a | :21:03. | :21:05. | |
possible Yes and also what's been said over the last TEB days. It's a | :21:06. | :21:10. | |
very, very -- ten days, it's a very, very unstable situation. Scottish | :21:11. | :21:15. | |
secretary Alistair Carmichael said he would resign government to join | :21:16. | :21:20. | |
Alex Salmond's 18-month negotiating team. Ministers like Danny Alexander | :21:21. | :21:24. | |
would be under pressure to force suit. There would be immediate | :21:25. | :21:27. | |
demands to limit voting rights of Scottish MPs, bad for Labour and the | :21:28. | :21:31. | |
Lib Dems ahead of the election. At the Cabinet meeting last week | :21:32. | :21:35. | |
Newsnight understands that the Chancellor said to the assembled | :21:36. | :21:38. | |
Cabinet ministers any contingency planning going on in their | :21:39. | :21:41. | |
departments should be stopped immediately, no E-mails, no nothing. | :21:42. | :21:44. | |
Of course, conversations might be going on off line, but nonetheless, | :21:45. | :21:49. | |
it's fair to say that the machinery of government does not feel | :21:50. | :21:51. | |
particularly ready for Scottish independence. Many in Westminster | :21:52. | :21:56. | |
talk about the ramifications of Scotland going it alone, taking some | :21:57. | :21:59. | |
20 to 30 years to be fully understood. | :22:00. | :22:07. | |
It's 6.00 on Friday 19th September, good morning, this is Today with | :22:08. | :22:13. | |
Justin Webb. The headline this morning: Scotland has voted to | :22:14. | :22:19. | |
remain part of the United Kingdom. In his concession speech, Alex | :22:20. | :22:21. | |
Salmond challenged Westminster to deliver on its promise of home rule | :22:22. | :22:29. | |
for Scotland. The bleary eyed of Downing Street exhale, no | :22:30. | :22:32. | |
territorial carvup of the UK will happen on their watch. Alex Salmond | :22:33. | :22:37. | |
greets the dawn with talk of more referendums, but at 7am David | :22:38. | :22:40. | |
Cameron makes a statement. He's got problems nonetheless. I believe | :22:41. | :22:44. | |
Parliament needs to be recalled as a matter of urgency, I think it must | :22:45. | :22:50. | |
be recalled on Monday. In order that Parliament meets and discusses these | :22:51. | :22:55. | |
issues before the conference and at least sends out a very strong signal | :22:56. | :23:00. | |
that it now believes that the English voice needs to be heard. | :23:01. | :23:04. | |
Conservative politicians are furious that it is Gordon Brown, the man | :23:05. | :23:08. | |
they ousted from Downing Street four years ago who is now writing the | :23:09. | :23:12. | |
powers that will be handed over from Westminster to Holyrood. In the next | :23:13. | :23:16. | |
few weeks the three parties have to come to some agreement about what | :23:17. | :23:19. | |
powers they will actually hand over to Scotland. Gordon Brown's | :23:20. | :23:23. | |
timetable sees proposals put forward by November and at the end of | :23:24. | :23:27. | |
January there will be concrete measures. Some Cabinet ministers are | :23:28. | :23:30. | |
already saying it's not possible to see how they can meet that | :23:31. | :23:35. | |
timetable. To stem Tory fury there's | :23:36. | :23:39. | |
speculation David Cameron will, on Friday, announce measures to protect | :23:40. | :23:43. | |
English MPs. Labour will fiercely resist anything that makes Scottish | :23:44. | :23:48. | |
MPs second-class. But even Ed Miliband's own former aid believes | :23:49. | :23:53. | |
change is needed -- aide. First, you have to have a Constitutional | :23:54. | :23:55. | |
Convention in England. Secondly we are going to have change in | :23:56. | :23:58. | |
Westminster. It's clear that the more powers go to the Scottish | :23:59. | :24:01. | |
Parliament the less you can have Scottish MPs voting on the same | :24:02. | :24:04. | |
issues for England. That's got to change in one way or another. | :24:05. | :24:09. | |
Thirdly, though, England is much too centralised, so this isn't just | :24:10. | :24:12. | |
about reducing the influence of Scottish MPs in Westminster, it's | :24:13. | :24:15. | |
about getting English decisions out of Westminster. Up and away out of | :24:16. | :24:22. | |
Westminster indeed. Tomorrow whatever happens much power will | :24:23. | :24:25. | |
begin to be moved from London and another chapter begins for the | :24:26. | :24:32. | |
mother of all parliaments. Parliaments. Joining us from | :24:33. | :24:36. | |
Westminster is the former Conservative Defence Minister Liam | :24:37. | :24:39. | |
Fox. Good evening. This is a hornet's nest. Do you | :24:40. | :24:44. | |
think that David Cameron worked out his strategy the best he could from | :24:45. | :24:47. | |
the beginning? I think whether we think it was a good strategy will | :24:48. | :24:51. | |
rather depend on what the result is. Having spent the day up in Glasgow | :24:52. | :24:55. | |
today I wouldn't be surprised if we got a result of about 55-45. I think | :24:56. | :25:03. | |
there are a number of things we need to do right away. The first is that | :25:04. | :25:08. | |
there will be a lot of healing to be done. There's potentially a lot of | :25:09. | :25:11. | |
bitterness and recrimination. That needs to be handle. That is the | :25:12. | :25:15. | |
first thing. The second thing is to understand the wider issues we have | :25:16. | :25:19. | |
to face. I think there are three, and probably in order of difficulty | :25:20. | :25:22. | |
the easiest first is the sort of policy areas that we might want to | :25:23. | :25:28. | |
have extended devolution in. What is going to be reserved at Westminster | :25:29. | :25:31. | |
and what are these new powers going to be. Let me ask you, Liam Fox, | :25:32. | :25:37. | |
should Devo Max have been on the paper? Would that have obviated all | :25:38. | :25:43. | |
this? Again, it would be depending what it means. What we now need to | :25:44. | :25:47. | |
see is what actually the details are, what are the extra policy areas | :25:48. | :25:52. | |
where devolution might come into and what are the tax varying powers that | :25:53. | :25:55. | |
might be proposed. We need to see the details and really tonight of | :25:56. | :25:59. | |
all nights we have to avoid knee jerk reactions on that. The second | :26:00. | :26:04. | |
area we need to look at is now unavoidable, which is the English | :26:05. | :26:07. | |
question. And the West Lothian question and what now do we do about | :26:08. | :26:12. | |
an imbalance in our constitutional relationship. There are a number of | :26:13. | :26:15. | |
ways we can address that but I think now it will have to be addressed and | :26:16. | :26:18. | |
politicians have ducked the question for too long. The third, but most | :26:19. | :26:23. | |
difficult issue, I think will relate to the financial settlement. And | :26:24. | :26:27. | |
exactly how we see that across the United Kingdom. I've thought for a | :26:28. | :26:35. | |
long time that we needed to look at deprivation indices across the | :26:36. | :26:39. | |
country a little more closely when allocating funding and we have a | :26:40. | :26:42. | |
strong incentive to do that. But do you think that in all this there | :26:43. | :26:45. | |
should be an English Parliament? That is where we're heading if there | :26:46. | :26:51. | |
is a No vote. I'm not in favour of a separate English Parliament because | :26:52. | :26:56. | |
I think that with parish councils, town councils, district councils, | :26:57. | :26:58. | |
county councils, Westminster, the last thing we require is another | :26:59. | :27:02. | |
level of government; but I do think effectively what we must ensure is | :27:03. | :27:07. | |
that Scottish MPs who cannot vote on issues like health and education in | :27:08. | :27:11. | |
Scotland, should not be entitled to vote on health and education in | :27:12. | :27:17. | |
constituencies like mine in north Somerset. It is profoundly | :27:18. | :27:20. | |
undemocratic and unfair. It needs to be dealt with. Do you think the way | :27:21. | :27:24. | |
all this came about essentially was that, you could put it this way, | :27:25. | :27:27. | |
David Cameron was bounced into all this by a failed politician in | :27:28. | :27:30. | |
Gordon Brown, a failed leader and actually it would have been better | :27:31. | :27:34. | |
if this had been an initiative fought out rather than one that | :27:35. | :27:39. | |
seems designed to annoy English Conservative backbenchers, not just | :27:40. | :27:42. | |
Conservative backbenchers. It will not just be Conservative | :27:43. | :27:45. | |
backbenchers, you're quite right. I think a lot of the problems came | :27:46. | :27:50. | |
from the very imbalanced constitutional settlement that came | :27:51. | :27:52. | |
with devolution under Tony Blair and Gordon Brown in the first place. The | :27:53. | :27:56. | |
whole question of what happens about governance in England has never | :27:57. | :28:00. | |
properly been addressed. It now does need to be addressed. We are going | :28:01. | :28:04. | |
to get, almost certainly I think tonight, a No vote. Scotland will | :28:05. | :28:07. | |
remain in the union, we therefore have to decide what the new balance | :28:08. | :28:11. | |
inside this union is going to be going forward that gives us the best | :28:12. | :28:17. | |
chance to maintain stability and to diminish some of those divisions | :28:18. | :28:20. | |
that have very sadly emerged in the last few weeks. Liam Fox, thank you | :28:21. | :28:25. | |
very much indeed. Now we're joined by the Times | :28:26. | :28:29. | |
columnist and Conservative peer Danny Finkelstein. Turning to you, | :28:30. | :28:33. | |
Danny Finkelstein, I think we feel in need of what you can give us by | :28:34. | :28:38. | |
way of that incisive analytical brain and from the position of being | :28:39. | :28:42. | |
a Lord of the realm. What do you think has been going on more broadly | :28:43. | :28:48. | |
today, this churn, this change, it may be happening in Scotland but | :28:49. | :28:51. | |
actually the ramifications are for the whole of the United Kingdom no | :28:52. | :28:53. | |
matter what? I think there's going to be quite a serious, as everyone | :28:54. | :28:58. | |
has been saying, sharp English question that comes up tomorrow. I'm | :28:59. | :29:02. | |
slightly puzzled by the suggestion that Gordon Brown forced the Devo | :29:03. | :29:07. | |
Max on to the agenda because actually, the Conservative party had | :29:08. | :29:10. | |
a report that's taken a year to prepare that came out at the end of | :29:11. | :29:13. | |
May on the question of what powers might be devolved. But the two | :29:14. | :29:18. | |
issues on which I think the campaign was bounced and did panic were the | :29:19. | :29:22. | |
time line and the question of the Barnett formula, in other words the | :29:23. | :29:25. | |
question of the Scottish financial settlement. Those two things are | :29:26. | :29:27. | |
going to cause big political trouble. They're going to cause | :29:28. | :29:30. | |
trouble in Parliament because of trying to assemble a Coalition in | :29:31. | :29:34. | |
the Conservative Party that might support the Prime Minister on the | :29:35. | :29:37. | |
Barnett formula and trying to have a Coalition with the Liberal Democrats | :29:38. | :29:40. | |
on the question of what you do for English MPs. Actually, far from it | :29:41. | :29:44. | |
being the case that at the last minute Scotland has been promised a | :29:45. | :29:47. | |
lot of powers, what's really happened is that Scotland has been | :29:48. | :29:50. | |
promised and accelerated timetable that I think will be difficult to | :29:51. | :29:56. | |
deliver. Difficult to deliver, but let's stick with the idea of the | :29:57. | :30:03. | |
Barnett formula because that was something that was desperately | :30:04. | :30:06. | |
needed to be changed as far as the Conservatives were concerned and | :30:07. | :30:09. | |
it's stuck. And it's the one thing that will cause a lot of anger in | :30:10. | :30:12. | |
the rest of the country and it will mean MPs from all parties will dig | :30:13. | :30:15. | |
their heels in? The Barnett formula is a short hand. There are two | :30:16. | :30:19. | |
elements, the Barnett formula itself about how you allocate increases in | :30:20. | :30:23. | |
spending and that's population based and the Barnett formula may need | :30:24. | :30:26. | |
some adjustment but isn't the problem. The basic problem is that | :30:27. | :30:32. | |
of the settlement underneath the Barnett formula in other words | :30:33. | :30:34. | |
Scotland's financial settlement. The Barnett formula therefore being a | :30:35. | :30:38. | |
short hand, what has been promised in the vow isn't actually what | :30:39. | :30:41. | |
everyone is angry about. What everyone is angry about is that | :30:42. | :30:45. | |
Scotland starts with a bigger financial settlement. So, actually, | :30:46. | :30:49. | |
it is possible to revisit that. You just heard Liam Fox talk about | :30:50. | :30:53. | |
revisiting the way that you allocate spending across the whole of | :30:54. | :30:56. | |
government in which Scotland may gain in some areas and lose in | :30:57. | :30:59. | |
others without touching the Barnett formula. Do you think now there's | :31:00. | :31:03. | |
going to be a bigger adjustment, that actually what's going to happen | :31:04. | :31:06. | |
eventually if he fact tow is a move towards a federalism? Everyone said | :31:07. | :31:10. | |
about English votes for English laws which is something I was involved in | :31:11. | :31:13. | |
when I worked for the Conservative Party in developing. Everyone said | :31:14. | :31:17. | |
the way of dealing with that is never to ask the West Lothian | :31:18. | :31:20. | |
question, and what happened in this campaign is that that idea, which | :31:21. | :31:25. | |
Tony Blair clung to, has become untenable. It is absolutely | :31:26. | :31:30. | |
inevitable that there will now be a move towards some sorted of English | :31:31. | :31:33. | |
votes for English laws in one form or another. But it will be very | :31:34. | :31:37. | |
problematic for Labour and, therefore, they will resist it and | :31:38. | :31:39. | |
of course the Conservatives don't have a majority in Parliament. | :31:40. | :31:42. | |
That's what makes the time line difficult. Will they be able to, as | :31:43. | :31:47. | |
they suggested, to actually agree the deal behind the vow between | :31:48. | :31:51. | |
them? I think there are lots of ways in which they might not be able to. | :31:52. | :31:55. | |
I think we're starting a period of great uncertainty, actually. Thank | :31:56. | :31:58. | |
you very much. The BBC's Allan Little has been | :31:59. | :32:02. | |
following the campaigns every step of the way, and he has rushed from | :32:03. | :32:06. | |
the main count to be with us now. You have covered everything. Bosnia | :32:07. | :32:12. | |
to Rwanda, been all over the world. You're back home now and covered | :32:13. | :32:14. | |
this campaign. We're going to see some pictures in a minute or two of | :32:15. | :32:18. | |
what's happened this evening. What's the last, particularly the last six | :32:19. | :32:22. | |
weeks felt like to you? There's been a lot of talk and quite rightly | :32:23. | :32:26. | |
about the atmosphere of menace and intimidation that has sometimes | :32:27. | :32:32. | |
infused this campaign. Atmosphere, relatively few actually incidents. | :32:33. | :32:37. | |
Nobody has been punched in the face. Our Deputy Prime Minister punched a | :32:38. | :32:42. | |
voter in the face in a recent general election, it hasn't here. | :32:43. | :32:46. | |
No, but we heard about intimidation, we tried to get guests on the show. | :32:47. | :32:51. | |
People have been concerned particularly women. There has been | :32:52. | :32:55. | |
some? Yes there has been some but my overwhelming opinion is that this | :32:56. | :32:58. | |
extraordinary national debate has been conducted with civility and | :32:59. | :33:01. | |
mutual respect. You and I both know that most families in Scotland have | :33:02. | :33:06. | |
Yes and No voters within them. People living next door to each | :33:07. | :33:10. | |
other. They disagree with civility and politeness for the most part. | :33:11. | :33:18. | |
This progress has happened in an old and entrenched democracy, this | :33:19. | :33:22. | |
wouldn't have been settled -- Look at this now. What is amazing, | :33:23. | :33:25. | |
everyone is still out on the streets. They're not saying we voted | :33:26. | :33:30. | |
now. You can hear them behind us in Holyrood. Here they are in George | :33:31. | :33:36. | |
Square. The place is full of revellers, it's as if there's, to me | :33:37. | :33:40. | |
there's a reinvigoration of the national debate in the sense that - | :33:41. | :33:45. | |
I'm hearing conversations all the time, unself conscious conversations | :33:46. | :33:47. | |
where people before would say it's not for me, it's for everybody. It | :33:48. | :33:53. | |
is, on both sides. Remarkably empowering and engauging. The Yes | :33:54. | :33:56. | |
campaign started this. They gave up on the conventional media early on | :33:57. | :34:01. | |
and they got very active on social media, started producing their own | :34:02. | :34:04. | |
journalism, their own ways of communicating with each other. I | :34:05. | :34:06. | |
think the difference between the No campaign and the Yes campaign, is | :34:07. | :34:10. | |
that the No campaign has been relatively speaking quite a | :34:11. | :34:12. | |
conventional campaign, passionate of course in defence of the union, | :34:13. | :34:16. | |
people speaking very passionately about that, but the Yes campaign, | :34:17. | :34:20. | |
people have been persuaded to vote Yes, they've been persuaded by | :34:21. | :34:22. | |
people they respect in their own lives and not by people they see on | :34:23. | :34:27. | |
television. That I think has ban very important difference, something | :34:28. | :34:30. | |
quite democratising has been happening. Particularly, not SCLU | :34:31. | :34:38. | |
civil but particularly on the Yes -- exclusively but particularly on the | :34:39. | :34:42. | |
Yes side of the arguments. It's 100 years since the first Scottish Home | :34:43. | :34:47. | |
Rule Bill passed its second vote at Westminster only to be kyboshed by | :34:48. | :34:50. | |
the assassination of Archduke Franz Ferdinand. After that home rule | :34:51. | :34:54. | |
stuttered on and off the agenda until the SNP first showed some | :34:55. | :34:58. | |
muscle in the 1967 #0S. But then it was never a match for the dyed in | :34:59. | :35:02. | |
the wool tribal Labour vote that seemed to be as strong as the Forth | :35:03. | :35:06. | |
Rail Bridge. So how did the SNP pull the feet from under the Labour | :35:07. | :35:11. | |
establishment to transform from a protest movement to a party that has | :35:12. | :35:14. | |
brought this country to the brink much independence? Here's Laura | :35:15. | :35:20. | |
again. A song, a dream of a new country for | :35:21. | :35:26. | |
SNP stalwarts, a long time coming, she can hardly believe her eyes. | :35:27. | :35:35. | |
Today is unbelievable. From when we started in 1974, people thought we | :35:36. | :35:39. | |
were dreaming. But our dream is coming true. What was a fringe party | :35:40. | :35:48. | |
fills Inverness' streets, unionists can only look on. I hate to see | :35:49. | :35:53. | |
songs being used as a political weapon, to be honest. How did it get | :35:54. | :35:59. | |
to this. Supporters of independence so emboldened they can take on | :36:00. | :36:01. | |
British Cabinet ministers in the street. You're not at Westminster | :36:02. | :36:08. | |
now, you're standing here as someone who's... And your BBC cronies. They | :36:09. | :36:13. | |
won't tell the truth. The charge, the excitement of Scottish | :36:14. | :36:17. | |
Nationalist politics is new, the power built haltingly in cities, | :36:18. | :36:21. | |
small villages and towns over decades. Few single issue or small | :36:22. | :36:26. | |
parties ever make it from relative object security to the mainstream. | :36:27. | :36:30. | |
And when Alex Salmond was first elected here nearly 20 years ago | :36:31. | :36:35. | |
much beyond local success didn't seem impossible, but the SNP's | :36:36. | :36:41. | |
long-term dream was very far away. For some local members, it even | :36:42. | :36:45. | |
began with ridicule. I can remember my father served his time in the | :36:46. | :36:50. | |
ship yards on Clyde and then he worked in the torpedo fact tree in | :36:51. | :36:55. | |
Alexandria. I remember him coming home and flinging his Labour Party | :36:56. | :36:58. | |
rosette down and said "son, they're not for us". He went out and helped | :36:59. | :37:06. | |
form a branch of the SNP. I joined and I took part in that. I'm | :37:07. | :37:10. | |
reminded at that time of the quote by Gandhi, "first they ignore you, | :37:11. | :37:14. | |
then they laugh at you, then they fight you and then you win". The | :37:15. | :37:27. | |
first solid victory was Winnie ewing. In 1967. On the stump her son | :37:28. | :37:34. | |
told us what she said still goes. She is one of the very few people | :37:35. | :37:36. | |
who tells Alex Salmond who to do. Scotland's oil is now worth a | :37:37. | :37:55. | |
minimum of ?155 million, what are we Scots going to get from it without | :37:56. | :38:00. | |
self-government. Ewing's election, then the oil bounty grew interest in | :38:01. | :38:06. | |
home rule. It's her oil so why are many in sub standard houses. Other | :38:07. | :38:10. | |
MPs followed. A huge Labour majority overturned. In 1979 a majority of | :38:11. | :38:16. | |
Scots who voted chose devolution but too few turned out to make it | :38:17. | :38:23. | |
happen. Despite defeat and through squabbles | :38:24. | :38:27. | |
in the '80s, a more organised and determined party emerged under this | :38:28. | :38:31. | |
man. It's a government of occupation we face in Scotland just as surely | :38:32. | :38:36. | |
as if they had an army at their backs. Alex created a modern | :38:37. | :38:41. | |
political party that could take on the parties of the British state and | :38:42. | :38:46. | |
beat them. In terms of discipline, in terms of their imagination and | :38:47. | :38:51. | |
how they campaigned, in their ability to start researching and | :38:52. | :38:55. | |
start he had KAGT people. But -- educating people. But it was | :38:56. | :38:59. | |
Labour's decision to create the Scottish Parliament which allowed | :39:00. | :39:03. | |
the SNP to get serious. When Scottish voters eventually got their | :39:04. | :39:04. | |
Parliament there were questions about whether the SNP would still be | :39:05. | :39:09. | |
relevant. Instead, devolution gave them a bigger platform. The | :39:10. | :39:18. | |
outsiders turned insiders. The SNP surge in 2011 meant for the first | :39:19. | :39:22. | |
time a vote ongoing it alone was real. And with it so close now, even | :39:23. | :39:28. | |
if there's defeat this week, can the demand fade? A vote against Yes this | :39:29. | :39:32. | |
time they might think it's all over, not going to happen that way. | :39:33. | :39:39. | |
Many Scots share none of this jubilation, but the question first | :39:40. | :39:44. | |
asked by a handful of activists so long ago will this week be answered | :39:45. | :39:52. | |
on every street in the country. Here with us in our studio | :39:53. | :39:58. | |
overlooking the Scottish Parliament building are the writer AL Kennedy | :39:59. | :40:06. | |
and the Spectator Magazine's writer and blog Alex Massie. On that point | :40:07. | :40:11. | |
where Labour offered limited devolution they thought they would | :40:12. | :40:14. | |
shoot the SNP's fox and they did nothing of the sort. No because the | :40:15. | :40:19. | |
SNP managed to present itself as the patriotic body, the will of the | :40:20. | :40:23. | |
Scottish people if you like, it's done so by being different types of | :40:24. | :40:26. | |
organisation in different parts of the country look at some of its | :40:27. | :40:31. | |
strong holds it has supplanted the Conservatives but also subsequently | :40:32. | :40:33. | |
made great inroads in Dundee and parts of the central belt. At the | :40:34. | :40:37. | |
expense of Labour. Because it has managed to say that it is standing | :40:38. | :40:40. | |
up for Scotland's interests against both Labour and the Conservatives. | :40:41. | :40:45. | |
How much has that been the political acumen of Alex Salmond that who for | :40:46. | :40:50. | |
a long time has outwitted the main political parties? It's difficult to | :40:51. | :40:56. | |
imagine that the SNP could have come so far without Alex Salmond, he's | :40:57. | :40:59. | |
been the dominant figure for 30 years now. But I think there are | :41:00. | :41:02. | |
other forces at work that have contributed to the SNP's rise and it | :41:03. | :41:07. | |
would have back prominent force in Scottish politics even without Alex | :41:08. | :41:12. | |
Salmond. Alison, you don't live in Scotland any more but you come and | :41:13. | :41:15. | |
go and I know you're a Yes supporter. How does this look like | :41:16. | :41:19. | |
to the rest of the UK. When you talk to people elsewhere what do they | :41:20. | :41:22. | |
think of it? Lots of people find it exciting. It's such an unfamiliar | :41:23. | :41:27. | |
experience for the media, so they're on the back foot. It was a surprise | :41:28. | :41:30. | |
in many ways to lots of the politicians and there's been even | :41:31. | :41:38. | |
more of a clear mismatch between an educated, sophisticated electorate | :41:39. | :41:41. | |
who are good at voting tactically, who have been looking into the facts | :41:42. | :41:45. | |
and who have a tradition of self-education in this country. And | :41:46. | :41:48. | |
they've been ahead of the media and ahead of the politicians. And some | :41:49. | :41:52. | |
of the media's spin on what the politicians have been saying, on | :41:53. | :41:57. | |
both sides, it's been as depressing and as evoking of apathy and low | :41:58. | :42:02. | |
turn-outs and all the things the politicians blame the electorate | :42:03. | :42:05. | |
for. But down south the idea of change and the idea of general, now, | :42:06. | :42:10. | |
a genuine democracy breaking up, people queuing to register to vote. | :42:11. | :42:15. | |
97% of the available electorate registering. And around 90% | :42:16. | :42:20. | |
turn-out. We're seeing now some of the latest pictures coming in from | :42:21. | :42:24. | |
around the country. We can see there out at Holyrood lots and lots of | :42:25. | :42:29. | |
people with banners, people dancing and people generally feeling the | :42:30. | :42:34. | |
mood. Absolutely. These are the apathetic young people and voters! | :42:35. | :42:37. | |
That's another thing we haven't talked about. The energising of that | :42:38. | :42:42. | |
16 and 17-year-olds, it's a one-off in this debate. I wonder how young | :42:43. | :42:46. | |
people will feel when it's removed from them in the future. How do you | :42:47. | :42:50. | |
think that's changed the debate? TFRNLGTS remains to be seen. Early | :42:51. | :42:54. | |
polls suggested 16 and 17-year-olds would vote against independence. I | :42:55. | :42:56. | |
think that moved in the course of the debate. The Yes campaign | :42:57. | :43:00. | |
resembled a carnival for a lot of this. Something quite profound has | :43:01. | :43:03. | |
happened here. Whatever way this turns out tonight, half the | :43:04. | :43:08. | |
population of one of the kingdoms of the union has repudiated the | :43:09. | :43:12. | |
English-Scottish union. There is a crisis of legitimates here, there is | :43:13. | :43:18. | |
a crisis of popular and democratic legitimacy. If the Westminster | :43:19. | :43:22. | |
establishment, the three Westminster parties think they can F they win | :43:23. | :43:27. | |
this tonight, they can go back to Westminster and thinking job done, | :43:28. | :43:32. | |
union saved, then they'll lose. And the Herald's Political Editor saying | :43:33. | :43:35. | |
it may be 100% turn-out in some areas. Reports across the country | :43:36. | :43:39. | |
showing the turn-out has exceeded even the most optimistic | :43:40. | :43:41. | |
expectations which is quite something. But it's not surprising | :43:42. | :43:45. | |
given the order of magnitude, the importance of the day. Yes, but the | :43:46. | :43:49. | |
genie is out of the bottle now, I wonder what you feel about that. If | :43:50. | :43:56. | |
Peter Kellner is right and it is a quite clear, decisive No vote, what | :43:57. | :44:00. | |
happens to the national psyche? Will people think things have changed and | :44:01. | :44:04. | |
have a positive attitude or will there be an almost depression set | :44:05. | :44:10. | |
in? All kinds of things have been - however it goes the idea of defining | :44:11. | :44:14. | |
nationality by "you live here so you can vote "I hate that I can't vote. | :44:15. | :44:18. | |
nationality by "you live here so you I don't live here so I don't have a | :44:19. | :44:21. | |
vote. I was having - There were bizarre things, people | :44:22. | :44:23. | |
vote. I was having - There were here for Lee weeks had a vote. There | :44:24. | :44:27. | |
were strange things happening? Yes, but it was so beautiful, | :44:28. | :44:32. | |
particularly at this time in Europe where nationalism have other faces, | :44:33. | :44:35. | |
to say if you live here, you're one of us. It's an important thing to | :44:36. | :44:39. | |
say. I wonder also looking at the way Gordon Brown rode in at the end | :44:40. | :44:44. | |
and actually, he looked like he was in his element and he hasn't looked | :44:45. | :44:48. | |
like that for many years. It was as if he found a cause again. I wonder | :44:49. | :44:53. | |
how Alastair Darling is feeling about that, but I wonder what you | :44:54. | :44:56. | |
think about that, that Brown found his voice again. He suddenly did. It | :44:57. | :45:01. | |
was like seeing a 20th century Gordon Brown rather than a 21st | :45:02. | :45:05. | |
century Gordon Brown. There was also the intention that Labour need today | :45:06. | :45:08. | |
bring it's so-called big guns into the campaign even at the latest of | :45:09. | :45:15. | |
late stages. This has still been a very bad campaign for Labour. It's | :45:16. | :45:21. | |
been a good campaign for Scotland but a bad few months for the Labour | :45:22. | :45:24. | |
Party north and south of the border. Hold that a minute. We're going to | :45:25. | :45:28. | |
keep Alan and Alison and if Westminster came late to the | :45:29. | :45:32. | |
referendum the world is now here too with broadcasters from every | :45:33. | :45:34. | |
conceivable country, and the Kurds and the Catalans. We sent Duncan out | :45:35. | :45:37. | |
to get a flavour of the atmosphere. Can I ask what country you're from? | :45:38. | :45:48. | |
Denmark. How much attention is Denmark giving? Enormous, we're | :45:49. | :45:51. | |
broadcasting all the time and have been for over a week. We're | :45:52. | :45:56. | |
completely obsessed with this story. Why are you in Scotland? We are here | :45:57. | :46:02. | |
because we're an Austrian minority in Italy, we are here to support our | :46:03. | :46:08. | |
friends. We're from Barcelona. Here's the | :46:09. | :46:13. | |
thing, a lot of Catalans have come, not only to broadcast but many | :46:14. | :46:17. | |
tourist to see how things are going here. | :46:18. | :46:27. | |
Can I ask where you're from? From Taiwan China, another country, I'm | :46:28. | :46:30. | |
glad to have a discussion with people from Catalonia. And we're | :46:31. | :46:32. | |
going live to Sao Paulo. Yes. We're joined now by Professor Ewen | :46:33. | :46:52. | |
Cameron, Professor Of Scottish history and he joins Alison Kennedy | :46:53. | :46:57. | |
and Allan Little. I wonder, you're a man who has studied the union, WHOU | :46:58. | :47:00. | |
do you think after tonight F this poll is correct, how different will | :47:01. | :47:04. | |
the -- if this poll is correct, how different will the union look? It | :47:05. | :47:07. | |
will look very different regardless of the result. If there's a No vote | :47:08. | :47:11. | |
I think we're almost certainly likely to see more powers to the | :47:12. | :47:15. | |
Scottish Parliament. That will change the balance of power within | :47:16. | :47:19. | |
the union because if the Parliament over there gets more power over | :47:20. | :47:23. | |
taxation and spending then it really does fundamentally alter the game. | :47:24. | :47:27. | |
Looking at the discourse and how this has all been conducted, do you | :47:28. | :47:32. | |
think this re-energised political debate, not within Parliament or | :47:33. | :47:36. | |
Westminster, but out here, people shouting and singing, do you think | :47:37. | :47:39. | |
they'll keep that involvement up? I hope so. We've had other moments in | :47:40. | :47:43. | |
the Scottish history, in the 1880s or 1920s when we've had this sudden | :47:44. | :47:46. | |
burst of energy into Scottish politics. In some subsequent periods | :47:47. | :47:51. | |
it's been lost. I think this has to be carefully nurtured by the | :47:52. | :47:55. | |
politicians on all sides so we do capture some of this enthusiasm for | :47:56. | :47:59. | |
a slightly longer period. Alan, we were talking earlier about Alex | :48:00. | :48:03. | |
Salmond, win or lose, has this been Alex Salmond's finest hour? I think | :48:04. | :48:11. | |
he's won whatever happens. Alex Salmond has always been a | :48:12. | :48:16. | |
gradualist, he wanted the third option, enhanced devolution. What is | :48:17. | :48:20. | |
being offered by the three Westminster parties is not Devo Max, | :48:21. | :48:23. | |
it's some kind of enhanced devolution that we don't know what | :48:24. | :48:27. | |
it will be yet. But Alex Salmond the great gradualist will have | :48:28. | :48:31. | |
strengthened the power of autonomy of Scotland within the union and put | :48:32. | :48:35. | |
Scotland on the map in the minds of the Westminster politicians. The | :48:36. | :48:38. | |
union will never be the same again. What I wonder is, if then there will | :48:39. | :48:44. | |
be a push, Alex Salmond had said that in fact it wouldn't be the | :48:45. | :48:53. | |
Quebec, it would not be the never-endum. But if Parliament is | :48:54. | :48:57. | |
working strongly, if there's a No vote tonight. Do you think there | :48:58. | :49:01. | |
will be a temptation to go for another referendum? Certainly in due | :49:02. | :49:05. | |
course, we remember 1979, the failed referendum in 1979 where Scotland | :49:06. | :49:08. | |
couldn't muster much more than a third of the total electorate to | :49:09. | :49:12. | |
vote for a very weak Parliament. With an decade what happened at | :49:13. | :49:16. | |
Westminster had formed in Scotland a rock solid two to one consensus for | :49:17. | :49:21. | |
a strongly devolved Parliament. The same mistake could happen this time | :49:22. | :49:24. | |
by Westminster politicians. Also, and the fact that what has happened | :49:25. | :49:30. | |
here, we look back at Laura's film is a huge SKEL racial. Thing we -- | :49:31. | :49:37. | |
acceleration, things we thought might take decades has taken a short | :49:38. | :49:42. | |
time. Is it social media or other things? I think it's a whole variety | :49:43. | :49:46. | |
of pressures F you look at the '60s and '70s there was a whole | :49:47. | :49:51. | |
reassessment of Scotland's history. The understanding of the nation, a | :49:52. | :49:56. | |
Parliament was there. Then you had Margaret Thatcher, alienating, not | :49:57. | :50:02. | |
just politically but culturally she was a in a different place. That | :50:03. | :50:06. | |
forced Scotland to get mature, OK if we are not that what are we, then | :50:07. | :50:10. | |
we've had three decades. Has this building here, the fact of this | :50:11. | :50:14. | |
building itself in a way encouraged a maturity? Absolutely, I think the | :50:15. | :50:19. | |
Parliament and even just having a stage for the different political | :50:20. | :50:22. | |
parties here in Scotland to play out Scottish politics in a Scottish | :50:23. | :50:26. | |
context, not on a oning-on occasional role in Westminster has | :50:27. | :50:33. | |
been crucial. It's created a Scottish demos, when I was in my | :50:34. | :50:38. | |
20s, the political space where we thought about Scottish politics was | :50:39. | :50:43. | |
emphatically British. Since this place was up and running, it | :50:44. | :50:47. | |
established itself very quickly as the focus of public life in | :50:48. | :50:52. | |
Scotland. That in itself is so hugely exciting. This has been such | :50:53. | :50:56. | |
an extraordinary, exciting day. Thank you all very much indeed. | :50:57. | :51:01. | |
The first regions to declare are expected around 1am. There are 32 | :51:02. | :51:05. | |
different counts in all. You can follow all the results on the BBC | :51:06. | :51:11. | |
election programme with hue Edwards on BBC One. However, tonight on | :51:12. | :51:16. | |
Newsnight we leave you with the images of the River Tweed that | :51:17. | :51:21. | |
divides England from Scotland, 50 miles south from this capital. We'll | :51:22. | :51:26. | |
know in a few hours from now whether this river will become an | :51:27. | :51:29. | |
international border or not. From all of us here, good night. | :51:30. | :52:13. | |
In Northern Ireland and Scotland we'll keep plenty of showers | :52:14. | :52:15. | |
throughout the day. | :52:16. | :52:18. |