17/09/2014 Newsnight


17/09/2014

On the eve of the Scottish independence referendum, a special programme live from Glasgow. Presented by Emily Maitlis.


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Transcript


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It's over. So should Scotland become an independent country? Tomorrow

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Scotland decides. The only answer for Scotland's sake, and for

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Scotland's future, is vote no. Don't let them tell us we can't.

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Let's do this now. For me it will go up to the wire, it will be right in

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the ballot booth with the paper in front of me. I change my mind on an

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hourly basis. Here we have Scotland's most precious natural

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resource, the undecided voter, what will they hear tonight to swing it.

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Hello and good evening. After two years, endless speeches and copious

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column inch, you would think it is all done, but incredibly this

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referendum now rests in the hands of a mere 300,000 or so people, the one

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who is still haven't made their mind up. They are a coveted commodity, we

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have three of them here in Glasgow tonight, all registered to vote,

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tonight they will hear the arguments of the big beasts and the layman,

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and by the time the show is over we will ask them if they know which way

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they will go. I took Anne-Marie, a school teacher into the centre of

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Glasgow, she's still undecided as to how to place her vote tomorrow.

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For me it is right up to the wire, right in the ballot booth with the

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paper in front of me. I'm still changing my mind on an hourly basis.

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Why has it been so hard? Because new things come to light. We have had

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the revelation that these companies might be moving out of Scotland,

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about we don't know what currency we are going to use, it is such a

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momentous decision to make, I want to make the right choice for my

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family and my family. If it was my heart I would vote for, I would make

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a yes vote, because I believe that Scottish people have the

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intelligence and the power and the wit to be able to control their own

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finances, but by the same token I don't think all the information that

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we should have to make that informed choice has been given to us.

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If you walk around the streets of Glasgow you will see more signs for

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yes, you will definitely see more people standing outside of stores,

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as we did at the weekend, that were actively trying to get our vote as

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yes. And there wasn't so much negativity. I haven't seen any no. I

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would have liked to have had their viewpoint as well. It hasn't

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happened. As we stand here, tonight, the eve

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of polling day, you genuinely don't know where you are going to put your

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cross tomorrow? I genuinely don't know. I think I will need to hear

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the rest of the argument tonight, sleepen to and tomorrow morning,

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when I go in that booth it will be a very personal one-on-one decision.

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Anne-Marie is with us and a couple of other undecides, Lindsay you

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heard the thoughts there, why has it been so hard? It has been immensely

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difficult, it is an emotive issue and a lot of people might have

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in-built hunch about which way they might be voting but there is a lot

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of important information out there that I think people have a duty to

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consider. So it is a lot to A lot of it is just going out and

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talking to people on the street, that is the most positive thing,

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people are talking to you on the street and in the shops and that is

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great. We have the noes on this side and the yeses on this side, with the

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greatest respect they are looking at you and saying Jason, when are you

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going to do it, what will change it? Well, if I can hear one concise and

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definitive argument either way I could be swayed. I have said I'm

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swaying more to my left on to the yes side, but right now it has been

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for every argument on either side there has been another trumping it

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on the other. For the longest time I was a staunch no, because I work in

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finance and I was afraid that if I did vote for an independent Scotland

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I wouldn't get to live in it and I would have to move down south. But

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for me that is eroded by the fact that the Scottish people should be

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deciding their own fate. Let me just see a show of hands, who here has

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come to their decision in the last month? What was it, was it one

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thing, a combination of things? I think it was several factors

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throughout the country. There has been some aspects with my friends

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and family, but I think more on a personal level. The First Minister I

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feel his arguments have been a bit wavering but solid in the most. I

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feel he's very clear and concise as to what his view for the future of

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Scotland is. Granted it may take a while to achieve, but I feel if we

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give him a chance it would happen. And has anyone gone against their

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families' wishes to sit on the side of the room that they are? I'm

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definitely voting no and my mother is voting yes. Cathy we will hear

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from her in a second. Was that difficult? Very difficult, there was

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a few words crossed in the car on the journey here tonight. But

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afterwards we will both do our best for the people of Scotland. Cathy we

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can't let that one go, what did you say to him? I'm trying to keep calm.

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But I really think it is wonderful that we have different points of

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view. But having said that Gary knows that I have been an

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antipoverty campaigner for the past 30 years, and I have both

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experienced and witnessed human suffering and hardship on a scale I

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never thought I would ever see it in my lifetime. Except perhaps in times

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of war. And let me finish, during that set of years since the time of

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Thatcher, I have seen successive Governments turning their

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parliamentary so called democracy and so called management of the

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institution to service the rich and all their cronies. There is a lot of

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nodding heads here. (Applause) we will come back to some of those

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points. Thank you very much indeed. There are some still clearly hungry

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to hear more. For others tomorrow can't come soon enough. We followed

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the last day of the campaign here in Glasgow.

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Hopes and fears but the talking is finally done. Yet the decision is

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still to make. Every handshake can mean something. Every snap of this

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moment when everything might change. This is it, the last push for this

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man and these people's dreams, but still with just a few hours before

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the polling stations open, there are still thousands of undecided voters

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around the country. And the case for independence has

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been put in places where politicians have hardly gone for so long. Here

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on the edge of Glasgow there are still votes to be won. I'm still

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undecided yet. I will decide tomorrow. A lot of traditional

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Labour Party supporters like myself that feel that they forgot about us

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and abandoned us, since Tony Blair got in, it is so hard to

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differentiate the policies between the Tories and the Labour Party, I

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don't support the SNP, I don't like the SNP but it is a protest the

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Labour Party have done nothing for us. It never mattered until

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recently, seeing the possibility of going independent and doing things

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totally differently is what has made a lot of people really passionate.

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My family worry about it. You are worried about them? In case they get

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their own way. There is no coming back. But alongside new belief and

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disillusion, thoughts of a new country have stirred old divides. I

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think it is extremist views that are rooted in history that isn't

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necessary rooted in a present or a future. That's been a challenge to

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be around those conversations that are about what we have been or what

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happened a long time ago rather than who we are now and what we're moving

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towards. I think in the last couple of years things have increased on an

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anxiety level and worrying about the change impacting their family. You

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are going for Better Together, wonderful news. In Aberdeen the

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last-minute scramble is real. New volunteers still coming forward for

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no. Even on a free period from school. I first got involved 10-12

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days ago, you know when the polls looked close. Please welcome the one

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and only Gordon Brown. Their campaign has in the last few days

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found a new hero, Gordon Brown rediscovering his strongest voice.

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Could this be the appeal that wins undecided around. Let us tell the

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NAILSs nationalists, this is not their country, their polls their

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streets, this is everyone's culture, everyone's country and everyone's

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streets. But independence campaigners have already travelled

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further than their opponents ever imagined, whether in the central

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belt, towns or streets, or the farms of Perthshire. I can taste it, I can

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genuinely taste it. It is wafer thin, it is absolutely every single

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vote will count. And I can feel it, there is a mood in Scotland that I

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have never felt. I have been a yes vote, we are going to need to take

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the real struggle forward and that will be on the no side. Further can

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mean fury, tomorrow Scots will decide. But this political enner

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ghee, can you almost touch might not find an easy home. Ergy, can

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We speak to Tom Hunter, the first ever Scottish billion hair, and the

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presenter of Coast, Neil Oliver. You have some sympathy with the

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undeciders? I have total sympathy, because when the referendum was

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announced we decided it was far too an important decision to leave to

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the politicians alone to inform us. Therefore we went round the world,

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got the biggest brains, with no side in this decide, and made it

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available to the voters of Scotland to say we are not trying to convince

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you to vote the way I'm voting, I'm not trying to convince you of my

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point of view, I'm trying to say here are some facts, no spin, you

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make up your own mind. You wield a lot of influence in this country,

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once you knew which way you wanted to go, didn't you want to sway

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people? No, I have a vote same as everyone else, that weighed heavy on

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my shoulders and I'm not saying. Who thinks they voted with their heart,

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go on? For me it is quite simple, the decision we have to make some is

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about who gets to make the choices as to how Scotland is run. And it

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should be the people who live and work in Scotland. It was never about

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particular policies or anything of that sort, it is who gets to make

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the choice? Did you look at the fine print, did you look at the detail

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and read it all? Absolutely I went to a meeting this week and I was in

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the presence Professor Ronald McDonald, an economist, Google him

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if you haven't heard of him. From Glasgow University and he spelt out

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clearly as an academic not a politician what is at stake for this

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clearly as an academic not a sawn off barrel of a

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clearly as an academic not a economic disaster if this goes

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wrong. We will have a brain drain, and a flight of the able leaving the

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rest of us behind and that worries me, that wasn't a politician.

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(Applause) The language has been very passionate from both sides. Do

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you think this has been a rational decision for you, an emotional one?

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I'm not a political animal at all, and I will be honest with you and

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say that the economic arguments I'm completely confounded by. Because

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every question that's asked receives two completely different and often

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completely contrasting answers. And for me, it has always been a simple

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question. I find that the offering from the yes camp is un-Scottish to

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me. In that it jars with my sense of what Scotland was, the Scotland I

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grew up in. I say that because my work has taken me around a lot of

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Britain, I have spent a lot of time travelling around

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Britain, I have spent a lot of time again and again. And I'm as offended

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by the thought of a family dependant on a foodbank in Bradford as I am of

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a family dependant on a foodbank in Glasgow. And I'm horrified and

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ashamed by the thought any of child going to bed cold and hungry, be it

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Plymouth, Cardiff or Elgin. I find it difficult to see any nobility in

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turning our backs on large part of our family, our family of nations

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and saying well we can make it good for ourselves, and the other people

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will be left behind. I find that jars with what I was brought up to

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believe as a Scot. There is a lot of shaking heads in this corner, we

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will come to you in a second. Fiona you have been called un-Scottish for

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voting yes? Not that I have done it yet. I think the other way of

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looking at it is surely there is no doubt the fact that Scotland has had

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this discussion and the run up to the referendum has meant that

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England is now starting to wake up to the fact that they need to sort

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themselves out, they haven't got a parliament, why don't they have a

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parliament. There is something very true in what you say in that for a

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long time, for generations really there has been a decline in people

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having a sense of the value of their vote, and if this referendum has

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done anything it has been to prove that every single vote counts and

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the vote is a very powerful gift, a very powerful privilege. There is no

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doubting that, if 97% of the electorate in Scotland who are

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eligible to vote have signed up to vote and if they do vote that will

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be the biggest turnout since the Second World War. The problems of

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Britain, we all agree there are problems Britain-wide, there are

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things that need to be fixed and poverty that needs to be addressed

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and opportunities not taken. If 97% of the UK population sign up and

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vote and take part in debate, we can fix Britain. And Scotland used to

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be... (applause) Let's hear from the yes people, who thinks Scotland has

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been change bid this, whatever the outcome? Scotland has been changed

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you can see it everywhereywhere. I'm disappointed in you, I love your

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programme, I don't know if you have lived in the Scottish townships or

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the food banks, I think you should go there, for the past 50 years, I'm

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just officially a pensioner, I have lived around here for 60 years. I'm

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not being rude, I need to bring other voices. Billy you want to make

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a point, and then we will come back to the panel as well.

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Absolutely, I don't believe by becoming independent we are turning

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our backs on anyone (applause) because the simple fact of the

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matter is that Britain still wants to rule the world. Scotland wants to

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lead the world. And we can and we have done. Many times. Earlier Laura

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Kuensberg caught up with a man who more than anyone else has brought

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the union to the edge of this historic moment, Alex Salmond, she

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began by asking him about how the divisions opened up in Scottish

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society and how they would be healed? Are you concerned about the

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passion on both sides creating divisions, and we have spoken to

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many voters on both sides who are extremely worried about what might

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happen on Friday. I tell you what, this is the most empowering,

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enlivening, democratic participation I have ever seen in Scottish

:17:54.:17:56.

politics and UK politics, probably in the west of Europe. It is a

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fantastic wonderful debate. You will always get a few idiots on either

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side. For many ordinary people it is more than a few idiots it is real

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concerns about division? I was going to finish the point, it was one or

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two people on either side will always have bad behaviour, that has

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to be condemned on or offline. Let's remember 99% of those participating

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in the campaign are behaving impeccable. Let's understand when

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you have democratic participation and people queueing to register to

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vote, to take interest in the political process for the first time

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in their lives, this is a wonderful, empowering thing. It is a

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celebration of democracy, we're going to have on Thursday and on

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Friday there stops being a no or yes campaign, there will be one

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campaign, Team Scotland, I as First Minister will draw that together, it

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is Team Scotland going forward. That not with standing, there are many

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ordinary people we have spoken to, many of whom participating in

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politics for the first time, which has to be a positive, who are

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worried about their communities being divided. There is a high

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anxiety level in many places? There is a discussion and a debate, a

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wonderful debate taking place in Scotland. But everybody of course

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will accept the result. That is what democracy is about, then we will

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move forward. If you ask people, look, the day after this, do we stop

:19:17.:19:22.

being the yes and no camp and only a Team Scotland, they will say

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absolutely, as First Minister I have a responsibility to draw that

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together. I was delighted when Alastair Carmichael that he would

:19:33.:19:36.

see it his obligation for resigning as Scottish Secretary and joining

:19:37.:19:43.

the camp. In victory magnaminty, that will draw us together and will

:19:44.:19:47.

succeed. You and colleagues have said repeatedly that this is about

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Scotland getting the Government they chose rather than one imposed on

:19:52.:20:03.

them. After the last 17 years, for the last 13 Scotland voted Labour

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and got Labour. Are you not creating a false premise that Scotland

:20:09.:20:12.

doesn't get what they vote for. I'm 59 years old, so older than you, I

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don't look it I know. For more than half of my 59 years Scotland has

:20:18.:20:22.

voted in one direction and a Tory Prime Minister is imposed upon us.

:20:23.:20:26.

If we take that sweep of 59 years and a reasonable amount of time.

:20:27.:20:29.

That is the democratic process. It is not the democratic process in

:20:30.:20:32.

Scotland. It is not democratic to have a situation where we have one

:20:33.:20:35.

member of parliament, David Cameron, is the Tory Prime Minister. For 13

:20:36.:20:40.

out of the last 17 years Scotland has had who they have chance. If you

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go out in Scotland and ask the vast number of people if they think it is

:20:46.:20:49.

democratically acceptable to have story Governments in London and one

:20:50.:20:52.

MP in Scotland they will say no it is not. One of the big motivations

:20:53.:20:58.

in the yes vote, particularly among Labour people who normally

:20:59.:21:00.

in the yes vote, particularly among the Labour Party, this is definite,

:21:01.:21:02.

in each and every election in an independent Scotland that Scotland

:21:03.:21:05.

will have the Government that we vote for, not the Government that we

:21:06.:21:16.

vote for not anything else. Are you looking forward to it? This is a

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once-in-a-lifetime opportunity, and I have absolute confidence tomorrow.

:21:23.:21:28.

The reason I say it is once-in-a-lifetime opportunity, as

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we know Mr Cameron only agreed it because they shout thought they were

:21:32.:21:39.

a shoe-in for a no vote. That is why it is a once-in-a-lifetime

:21:40.:21:42.

opportunity to take Scotland's future into Scotland's hands. Thank

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you very much indeed. Great pleasure.

:21:45.:21:48.

Alex Salmond during the course of this campaign. Lindsay, does he do

:21:49.:21:52.

it for you, he is push or pull factor when you listen to him? For

:21:53.:21:56.

me the debate isn't about Alex Salmond and I think a lot of the

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focus on Alex Salmond has been a bit of day version tactic. (Applause)

:22:01.:22:05.

and the yes campaign is a lot broader to me, you know, than just

:22:06.:22:13.

Alex Salmond. It incorporates the Greens, the National Collective,

:22:14.:22:16.

Women for Independent, English Scots for Independence. For me it is not

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about Alex Salmond, for me the most exciting thing is the possibility of

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having equal equality and human rights through there, and I wonder

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about that in Westminster where the three parties are indistinguishable

:22:36.:22:38.

and untrustworthy. You don't like Alex Salmond do you? You are voting

:22:39.:22:43.

yes? When I was first making my decisions you know I couldn't avoid

:22:44.:22:48.

it, I couldn't you know extract the image of Alex Salmond from you know,

:22:49.:22:53.

if you have reached a point in this campaign where you think it is an

:22:54.:23:02.

opportunity whether you have to pledge allegiance to nationalism or

:23:03.:23:05.

Alex Salmond you have missed the points. It is people like Patrick

:23:06.:23:10.

Harvey and Russell Brand who have more influence in this debate.

:23:11.:23:16.

Politicians don't represent us, working people, they represent

:23:17.:23:18.

millionaires. We have heard from Gordon Brown

:23:19.:23:22.

suddenly in the last ten days, has that been a factor? Since you

:23:23.:23:26.

mentioned Alex Salmond and whether or not you like him, what I would

:23:27.:23:30.

like to mention is that he keeps talking about our children, our

:23:31.:23:38.

future, Alex Salmond doesn't have any children, Nicola Sturgeon

:23:39.:23:41.

doesn't have children, how can they talk about kids when they don't have

:23:42.:23:45.

any, how can they talk about kids' futures when they don't have any,

:23:46.:23:49.

they are not parents. How can they talk about that. Alex Salmond is on

:23:50.:23:59.

an ego trip, and at the moment they are putting generators in the

:24:00.:24:03.

governor's house in Edinburgh because he plans to be King Salmond

:24:04.:24:09.

in his house. You have heard from Gordon Brown this week as well, has

:24:10.:24:14.

he stirred things up for you, has it been good? I have been very

:24:15.:24:16.

impressed with Gordon Brown this week with what he said. I would like

:24:17.:24:20.

to put it in a simplistic term, when you go to buy a house, the house

:24:21.:24:24.

developer will offer you every incentive possible to buy it, but at

:24:25.:24:28.

the end of it there is one golden rule, if you don't keep up your

:24:29.:24:32.

mortgage payments the house gets repossessed. From what I have heard

:24:33.:24:36.

from Alex Salmond is one thing, we will all be holding hands on Friday

:24:37.:24:39.

and walking into the sunset and he's not in any shape or form talking

:24:40.:24:43.

about any negative that is will come at from it. Alex Salmond whichever

:24:44.:24:47.

way you look at it is no different from any other Westminster MP, and

:24:48.:24:50.

until people actually realise that we're going down the river.

:24:51.:24:56.

(Applause) But the accusation he's tried to be a visionary, he has been

:24:57.:25:01.

unrealistic and he hasn't actually told you the truth. No, no. He's a

:25:02.:25:09.

good politician. Just one voice please. You in the cream shirt. I

:25:10.:25:16.

have got a question for the panel here, and for everyone else, this

:25:17.:25:22.

referendum in the last week or so it has all been about change, up until

:25:23.:25:28.

a week or ten days ago there was only one side talking about change

:25:29.:25:31.

and now fair dos it is all about change. What I would like to say is

:25:32.:25:38.

the UK economy is based 78% on the service industry, the majority of

:25:39.:25:42.

the service industry is the financial sector, and as far as I

:25:43.:25:45.

know, maybe the historians will correct me, but money lending has

:25:46.:25:49.

been around since Jesus was a boy, so what is progressive about it and

:25:50.:25:54.

what's new when the rest of the world is looking about creating

:25:55.:25:58.

knowledge-based economies. You have taken us into a very important next

:25:59.:26:02.

step and we're going to hear from Tom and we will hear from our

:26:03.:26:05.

historians as well on the economic questions, because they have really

:26:06.:26:10.

dominated the campaign. The no camp have questioned how sustainable an

:26:11.:26:13.

independent Scotland would be, whilst the yes side believes that

:26:14.:26:16.

freed from Westminster Scotland could flourish. So who is right?

:26:17.:26:20.

Chris Cook and Duncan Weldon have been looking into this.

:26:21.:26:31.

Why are we here? Well this is the best possible

:26:32.:26:35.

place, Edinburgh Castle to talk about Scotland, the union and fiscal

:26:36.:26:40.

policy. Back in 1707 at the Act of Union, part of the deal was England

:26:41.:26:45.

sent Scotland ?398,000, that is about ?7 billion in today's money as

:26:46.:26:52.

part of the deal. As a sweetener. Sorry Chris I zoned out, thought it

:26:53.:26:55.

was an economics report not history lecture. We can bring it up to date

:26:56.:26:59.

if I ask you one big question. It is fair to say that the campaign has

:27:00.:27:03.

been a lot more heat than light when it comes to economic, how is this

:27:04.:27:06.

for a question, if I put you in charge of the yes campaign, how

:27:07.:27:10.

would you make the case for economic independence. I wouldn't start from

:27:11.:27:21.

here. If I was making the economic case for yes I would start here,

:27:22.:27:27.

look at these bridge, amazing infrastructure, just across there

:27:28.:27:30.

you have a modern, high-tech shipyard. What this place says to

:27:31.:27:37.

me, there is more to Scotland than this caricature of offshore oil and

:27:38.:27:43.

a few major dodgy banks. You have high-value whiskey exports, tourism,

:27:44.:27:47.

modern services. What is often not appreciated, particularly in England

:27:48.:27:50.

is, at the moment in terms of economic output per head and

:27:51.:27:54.

national wealth, Scotland is the third-richest part of the UK. Only

:27:55.:27:57.

London and the south-east of England are ahead in terms of economic

:27:58.:28:01.

output. This is a strong base in which to launch an independent

:28:02.:28:05.

economy. OK, all right, but how would an independent Scotland's

:28:06.:28:09.

fiscal position look? I was almost hoping you wouldn't ask for the

:28:10.:28:12.

fiscal position. It wouldn't look great. But Scotland at the moment of

:28:13.:28:16.

independence, yeah they would have a large budget deficit, but, and this

:28:17.:28:20.

is pretty crucial, it would be smaller than the current UK deficit?

:28:21.:28:33.

Right, but that's now. So if I were put in charge of the no campaign

:28:34.:28:46.

which, I appreciate for a bloke from purelily from Purley is pretty

:28:47.:28:54.

unlikely. Scotland is reliant on the oil wealth but it is in decline. And

:28:55.:28:58.

its health and wealth expenditure will have to rise faster, the IFS

:28:59.:29:02.

thinks the line has crossed, Scotland has a worse fiscal position

:29:03.:29:09.

by 2017, and by 2021 Scotland has to engage in an austerity drive to keep

:29:10.:29:14.

stable. We are talking about 8p on income tax, or if you prefer 7p on

:29:15.:29:18.

VAT. So everyone will have tough choices to make in the years to

:29:19.:29:21.

come. Including the rest of the UK. But in Scotland those choices are

:29:22.:29:25.

much harder. We are talking about bone-crushing tightness. Thank you

:29:26.:29:30.

Dr Doom. The Institute of Fiscal Studies, they are well respected but

:29:31.:29:33.

not infallible. You know as well as I do that any economic forecast is

:29:34.:29:40.

basically an educated guess. On the demographics nobody says Scotland

:29:41.:29:43.

doesn't face a head wind, but it is not just about how many workers you

:29:44.:29:47.

have it is how productive workers are. If Scotland can find way to

:29:48.:29:52.

boost productivity, that problem looks less pressing. Every

:29:53.:29:56.

Government wants to boost productivity, what will Scotland do

:29:57.:29:59.

that it can't do now? That is interesting, at the moment the

:30:00.:30:01.

Government in Westminster and the opposition in Westminster they are

:30:02.:30:05.

coming to consensus about increasing productivity and pushing powers down

:30:06.:30:09.

to a local level and building northern powerhouse, if that is how

:30:10.:30:13.

you boost the economy, that is just an argument for independence. The

:30:14.:30:23.

other thing is Scotland would be a small, open economy, it could be

:30:24.:30:26.

more flexible taking advantage of opportunities, look at Ireland which

:30:27.:30:30.

slashed corporation tax down and attracted in big business it did a

:30:31.:30:33.

lot of good there. Ireland shows if you are a small economy you can be

:30:34.:30:38.

exposed to big international forces. We haven't spoken about things that

:30:39.:30:41.

Scotland has no control over, for example, it wants to join the

:30:42.:30:44.

European Union, great, fine, but the Spanish Government thinks it might

:30:45.:30:47.

take five years for them to get full membership again. Also remember the

:30:48.:30:50.

currency, we haven't even talked about that. Remember if they don't

:30:51.:30:54.

get currency union with London and London says they won't give it to

:30:55.:30:57.

them that they may have to run up big surplus so they can use

:30:58.:31:01.

sterling. Yeah, but it is no-one's interest for a newly independent

:31:02.:31:05.

Scotland's economy to fail. It is also not in Scottish interests to be

:31:06.:31:08.

relying on the kindness of strangers. Still it doesn't really

:31:09.:31:12.

feel as though there is a sort of killer single knockout argument on

:31:13.:31:15.

either side on the economics of all of this. But that's true, but on the

:31:16.:31:19.

other hand is it a good idea to be relying on the kindness of

:31:20.:31:23.

strangers? It doesn't feel to me as though there has been a big knockout

:31:24.:31:28.

argument either way in all of this. But I assume there won't be many

:31:29.:31:33.

people just voting on what it will do to GDP and the fiscal balance.

:31:34.:31:39.

Not people look back at India and say could the economy have grown

:31:40.:31:46.

faster without it. Our economics supremos for one night only Duncan

:31:47.:31:51.

and Chris in the same piece. With us Tom Hunter and historians Neil

:31:52.:31:56.

Oliver and Fiona Watson. Tom you have a lot of experience globally

:31:57.:32:01.

around the world, when you think of Scotland as an independent identity,

:32:02.:32:03.

could it flourish, does small matter? Of course Scotland could

:32:04.:32:09.

flourish. The question is should Scotland go independent? Not could.

:32:10.:32:14.

It definitely could. But should it? We have heard a lot tonight about

:32:15.:32:20.

Scotland being this civil and just society. And I'm slightly worried

:32:21.:32:24.

that one side is trying to take that. I haven't met anybody who

:32:25.:32:29.

doesn't believe in a civil and just society. Taking care of those who

:32:30.:32:34.

can't take care of themselves. (Applause) the fact of the matter

:32:35.:32:38.

is, and we have poverty campaigners here, and yes I have been to Easter

:32:39.:32:43.

House and looked at the food banks and I'm really ashamed that in this

:32:44.:32:47.

home, the place that I call home, we have food banks where we're told

:32:48.:32:51.

we're this rich nation but we have food banks. That is a disgrace. It

:32:52.:32:56.

is an absolute disgrace. But the only way we pay for this and this is

:32:57.:33:02.

something that is absolutely crucial is that Governments don't have

:33:03.:33:07.

money. Governments spend money. The only way we pay for a civil and just

:33:08.:33:12.

society is businesses flourishing, paying their taxes, employing

:33:13.:33:16.

people, et cetera, that is the only way it happens. Applause. Let me go

:33:17.:33:23.

to Fiona. Implicit in that is an idea that you can't just be

:33:24.:33:27.

emotional about this, you have got to be a realist. And Scotland could

:33:28.:33:36.

suffer on its own. Neil when you are talking about the economic, one

:33:37.:33:39.

person says this and one says that, all I can see from my perspective as

:33:40.:33:46.

a medieval Scottish historian for most of Scottish history we have

:33:47.:33:52.

punched above our weight, we have an incredible resource, not just the

:33:53.:33:59.

physical assets but the people resources. But the issues in Panama

:34:00.:34:05.

the union was created after it went so wrong. Scotland was in a position

:34:06.:34:10.

where its king was the king of England and when William of Orange

:34:11.:34:15.

was here he represented the interests of the East India Company,

:34:16.:34:19.

it is like having Tesco's, Sainsbury's and Morrisons run with

:34:20.:34:24.

one head. Don't you believe you are being a bit 19th century saying we

:34:25.:34:30.

have to have this union, this Great Britain to survive? I don't think it

:34:31.:34:37.

is 19th century, I think bizarrely when the parliament's unified, when

:34:38.:34:42.

the kingdom was unified a century before that, it was an incredibly

:34:43.:34:46.

modern step. We were in the business of take ago -- taking away borders

:34:47.:34:55.

and to be back in a position of drawing lines on maps is more of

:34:56.:35:08.

backward step. I think we have already demonstrably had problems

:35:09.:35:12.

with the union, and the referendum has energised that. Scotland built

:35:13.:35:16.

the world, the gentleman said we should lead the world not rule the

:35:17.:35:21.

world. That is Scotland's talent. If we have the tools then we have the

:35:22.:35:27.

tools now. A lady here will explode if we don't let her talk. It is a

:35:28.:35:30.

fallacy that you are saying these things. To get back to the 21st

:35:31.:35:36.

century, to get back to now, you know, the union has not helped

:35:37.:35:42.

anybody get, hang on... Just a minute, I haven't said anything yet.

:35:43.:35:47.

Just a second. Finish your point. When you said I think we should be

:35:48.:35:50.

in the union because I care about the children in food banks in

:35:51.:35:56.

England and the rest of the UK as well as Scotland. How, it hasn't

:35:57.:36:00.

worked before? The union has not helped, Westminster and the

:36:01.:36:05.

Westminster consensus, the neo-liberal Westminster consensus

:36:06.:36:13.

has never helped kids yet. That is no argument for a union, that is

:36:14.:36:17.

what I'm saying. I want the perspective of one who has been in

:36:18.:36:21.

the army, you have served and worked in the army. Tell us what difference

:36:22.:36:24.

you think it would make if Scotland was on its own? I just think the

:36:25.:36:31.

threats to Scotland, whether Scotland is in the union or out of

:36:32.:36:35.

the union, they are probably broadly the same, whether it is

:36:36.:36:40.

international terrorism, global financial markets, climate change or

:36:41.:36:43.

good old fashioned state on state conflict. The thing is I believe our

:36:44.:36:49.

ability as a country to deal with those, to be resilient against them

:36:50.:36:53.

is much diminished if we are by ourselves and I think for me it is a

:36:54.:36:57.

terribly simple matter this, we have been focussing on the naval quite a

:36:58.:37:01.

lot and the things that are close in, and are home and we feel, know

:37:02.:37:06.

and understand, but actually the world doesn't stop at Gretna or

:37:07.:37:09.

London, there is an awful lot more of it out there. Do you think an

:37:10.:37:14.

independent Scotland is a safer country? You have had your hand up?

:37:15.:37:21.

I would just like to say we keep hearing about the no campaign about

:37:22.:37:28.

the risks of going into independence. What about the risks

:37:29.:37:34.

of staying as part of England, the chances are in the general election

:37:35.:37:37.

we will have a hung parliament, the Conservative Government will be

:37:38.:37:40.

looking for a coalition, they won't put Cameron in charge, they will

:37:41.:37:43.

have a coalition with UKIP led by Nigel Farage, do we want to be led

:37:44.:37:47.

by those two, are they going to show us compassion, I don't think so.

:37:48.:37:52.

What about Scotland chosing the leader it wants? Alex Salmond has

:37:53.:37:57.

said a vote for the SNP will get rid of a Tory Government. Oh no it

:37:58.:38:04.

won't. You are going to get a Tory Government for the rest of your life

:38:05.:38:08.

because you will sell away the votes of five million Scottish people. You

:38:09.:38:15.

are going to lose 41 ministers in England. We are going to come back

:38:16.:38:19.

to this. Through the course of this campaign though the Westminster

:38:20.:38:24.

leaders have sounded increasingly like desperate boyfriends, pleading

:38:25.:38:29.

and threatening in equal measure, the language is one of bitter

:38:30.:38:33.

divorces, break-ups and a marriage that needs a bit of work. Nonsense

:38:34.:38:41.

says the yes campagin. This is just the lodger who has grown up in his

:38:42.:38:47.

parents home and knows it is time to leave.

:38:48.:38:51.

For 300 years, it has been a complicated relationship. The Act of

:38:52.:38:54.

Union itself was hardly straight forward. Then there was the battle

:38:55.:39:05.

of cull of Culloden, and the introduction of poll tax, as David

:39:06.:39:08.

Cameron is fond of pointing out there are ups and downs, the

:39:09.:39:13.

Scottish enlightenment, men from both of the border caught at

:39:14.:39:17.

Dunkirk. This is a decision that could break up our family of

:39:18.:39:21.

nations, and rip Scotland from the rest of the United Kingdom.

:39:22.:39:25.

Independence would not be a trial separation, it would be a painful

:39:26.:39:32.

divorce. A 300-mile train ride south from Scotland and you arrive here at

:39:33.:39:37.

King's Cross St Pancras, politicians in London have become increasingly

:39:38.:39:41.

fond of that kind of language. It is not just independence, it is a

:39:42.:39:46.

break-up, a split up, the end of a long-term relationship. It is the

:39:47.:39:52.

language mainly of the no camp, but the SNP has also talked about the

:39:53.:39:57.

abusive relationship between England and Scotland. Alex Salmond has said

:39:58.:40:01.

we should be just good friends. Watching the Prime Minister over the

:40:02.:40:05.

last couple of week, first of all he has said look if you go that's it,

:40:06.:40:10.

I'm keeping the house, I'm keeping the car, custody of the children, if

:40:11.:40:14.

you think you can live without me you really are very silly and then

:40:15.:40:20.

he suddenly realised that this partner is still determined to go

:40:21.:40:23.

and may well be leaving. And so at that point he sort of pulled out the

:40:24.:40:28.

big guns with the "I love you so much" and the "please don't no" and

:40:29.:40:33.

"who will we be without you", "how could we possibly be apart". If

:40:34.:40:40.

Scotland votes yes it will be a huge challenge, just like a marriage

:40:41.:40:44.

breaking up or a family being in dissent. It is a huge challenge. It

:40:45.:40:48.

is not only a negative challenge though. Even when people are in

:40:49.:40:54.

absolute agony about divorce there is something interesting or

:40:55.:40:59.

something engaging about there might be something else for me. Even if

:41:00.:41:03.

you are the wronged party. If the vote does go the way of the

:41:04.:41:08.

yes camp, there will then be 18 months of tough negotiations before

:41:09.:41:12.

independence, again the language used is the language of a

:41:13.:41:16.

relationship, there is talk of dividing the assets, of sharing

:41:17.:41:21.

custody of military bases. Who owns the assets, does Scotland own the

:41:22.:41:25.

oil, if Scotland owns the oil who owns the oil rig, what about the

:41:26.:41:29.

money we have spent developing the oil, is that UK-based, what do we do

:41:30.:41:33.

about Dolly the sheep, was that a breakthrough for Great Britain, or

:41:34.:41:36.

was it just a breakthrough for great Scotland. The symbolism in the last

:41:37.:41:44.

few days of the campaign has been unambiguous, Gordon Brown appeared

:41:45.:41:47.

in front of giant hearts, love bombing Scottish voters with talk of

:41:48.:41:53.

togetherness. But at the same time the message from David Cameron in

:41:54.:41:57.

Westminster has been harder. Walk away and there will be no getting

:41:58.:42:01.

back together. I think it would have been better to stay away from the

:42:02.:42:08.

humanisation of to have not used words like "separation" and

:42:09.:42:13.

"divorce", but we haven't gone that positive route, it has become

:42:14.:42:25.

D-I-V-O-R-C-E! Have we damaged this relation forever? It will be hard,

:42:26.:42:29.

and I suspect it is the beginning of a longer process, it really is, it

:42:30.:42:38.

is going to be tough. Are we going to need some therapy for the

:42:39.:42:42.

country? We are going to need therapy, I don't know who is up for

:42:43.:42:48.

the job, it's not me! What are we to make of the language of separation

:42:49.:42:53.

and divorce, let's discuss with two people of letters, Ian Morrison, a

:42:54.:42:55.

Scottish writer who recently defected from the yes campaign, and

:42:56.:43:01.

the poet Jenny Lindsay who is planning to vote yes. What do you

:43:02.:43:06.

make of this language when we have heard the constant references to

:43:07.:43:09.

break-ups and divorce and bitterness? I have always found the

:43:10.:43:15.

marriage rhetoric quite irritating to be honest with you, because while

:43:16.:43:20.

not disrespecting some of the people who have spoken this evening about

:43:21.:43:24.

feeling like we're a family of nations. What it is is political

:43:25.:43:29.

rhetoric designed to silence debate. Because if you start talking about

:43:30.:43:34.

the independence referendum as being about divorcing, about ripping us

:43:35.:43:37.

apart and floating off into the North Sea, which we're not planning

:43:38.:43:41.

on doing, we're planning on staying right here, it silences debate and

:43:42.:43:46.

makes people feel guilty. It makes people feel bad about leaving their

:43:47.:43:54.

friends and family. Also feeds into the idea, pardon, intimidating? It

:43:55.:43:59.

is a bit desperate isn't it? I think in terms of the way that the entire

:44:00.:44:03.

debate run, you know, some of the things that Jenny is talking about

:44:04.:44:07.

are things that are also levelled against the yes camp, that they play

:44:08.:44:12.

with words that the words themselves are intimidatory, I do agree with

:44:13.:44:18.

Jenny that we should really at this stage get beyond talking in

:44:19.:44:23.

metaphors, if Alex Salmond is talking about it not being a divorce

:44:24.:44:27.

or separation, it is a teenage child living with parents and wanting to

:44:28.:44:32.

leave. Then you go why would you give power to a teenage child to run

:44:33.:44:36.

Government. It is a bit silly. What else do you do without metaphor, you

:44:37.:44:41.

don't want drei dry language or currency union debates? Yes itself

:44:42.:44:46.

is a great big metaphor. In itself it is too loaded with alternative

:44:47.:44:51.

meanings. I don't think we would have the euphoria around yes if the

:44:52.:44:54.

wording in the referendum had been the other way round. I think it is

:44:55.:44:58.

very simplistic, I think the reason that I find the marriage metaphor

:44:59.:45:02.

quite so irritating, and I will say it is only when politicians do it, I

:45:03.:45:07.

have seen many artists and writers create brilliant creative responses

:45:08.:45:11.

using marriage as a metaphor, talking about going through a

:45:12.:45:13.

process of England and Scotland and the rest of the UK talking and

:45:14.:45:16.

things like that. That is all grand, but when politicians use it, don't

:45:17.:45:20.

be under any illusions, it is designed to silence debate and make

:45:21.:45:24.

you feel scared and make you feel guilty. I suppose it is like Orwell

:45:25.:45:29.

said political language of all kind, and sure it is on the yes side as

:45:30.:45:34.

well, it is designed to make lies sound truthful, murder respectable

:45:35.:45:37.

and give the appearance of solidity to pure whims. When you ask the

:45:38.:45:41.

audience they say they have felt more energised and more close to

:45:42.:45:44.

change with this one moment and referendum than at any other time? I

:45:45.:45:58.

would say that is reactionary because seven days a week the media

:45:59.:46:03.

is broadcasting opinion as news. Anyone disagree? What about the

:46:04.:46:10.

media burning Union Jacks up in Scotland, at Bannockburn. They are

:46:11.:46:15.

burning Union Jacks and that is what will happen. The genie is out of the

:46:16.:46:19.

bottle and there will be sectarian strive. He's talking about

:46:20.:46:24.

separation and ripping the heart out of something. Just a second? The BBC

:46:25.:46:29.

has been accused of bias. David Cameron should have stayed away,

:46:30.:46:32.

he's not popular in Scotland. However any question that's asked of

:46:33.:46:38.

the yes campaign, if people ask for answers to any questions, you don't

:46:39.:46:42.

get answers, you get told you are scaremongering, there is no actual

:46:43.:46:45.

answers given. We have got two hand, yours at the back and then I will

:46:46.:46:52.

come to you. It is resorting to metaphor, my granddad was a northern

:46:53.:46:57.

English trade unionist who married a middle-class Scottish Tory, on paper

:46:58.:46:59.

that shouldn't have worked, it is like the union itself, on paper you

:47:00.:47:03.

think we are two completely different countries and yet it has

:47:04.:47:05.

worked, that is the great thing about the union and what makes the

:47:06.:47:10.

United Kingdom and a Great Britain. Maybe that is right, maybe you are

:47:11.:47:16.

looking at something up here. What I said earlier, the problem is one of

:47:17.:47:20.

democracy, who gets to choose what happens in Scotland, when Neil

:47:21.:47:23.

Oliver was on earlier on, he praised the union and how we show concern

:47:24.:47:28.

for other people, the fact of the matter is the Labour Party, which

:47:29.:47:32.

has been elected in Scotland, directs its concerns to the concerns

:47:33.:47:36.

of the City of London and the much, much bigger country, which is

:47:37.:47:39.

England which forms part of the union, we do not get our own choices

:47:40.:47:43.

here. Right, we have come to a pretty key

:47:44.:47:49.

moment in the show, because tomorrow our handful of undecided will have

:47:50.:47:57.

to bite the bullet. We have asked one person from the audience to make

:47:58.:48:00.

a brief final pitch. We will go first to the no campaign, Gary you

:48:01.:48:04.

volunteered to do this, I will keep you to a minute? A yes vote tomorrow

:48:05.:48:10.

is a vote for your vision of an independent Scotland. That is the

:48:11.:48:13.

problem with the campaign so far, if you look at the no campaign you can

:48:14.:48:17.

see where the division s you can see Labour, Tories and Liberal

:48:18.:48:20.

Democrats, all campaigning for a no, but all trying to get their digs in

:48:21.:48:24.

each other at the same time. That hasn't been seen in the yes

:48:25.:48:27.

campaign, the reason is all they are asking for is independence, without

:48:28.:48:30.

any idea what will follow afterwards. As part of that campaign

:48:31.:48:33.

there are people who want to create a new oil boom on the same side as

:48:34.:48:38.

greens. There are people like Business for Scotland who want to

:48:39.:48:41.

cut corporation tax and make this place aer in van a that for

:48:42.:48:45.

business, at the same time there are people who are socialists and who

:48:46.:48:48.

want more tax and spend in Scotland. Day after a yes vote those people

:48:49.:48:52.

will be at loggerheads with each other and take the arguments we have

:48:53.:48:55.

in the UK and scale it down to the level of Scotland, and the same

:48:56.:49:00.

squabbling on a smaller scale. I will stop you there and give Billy

:49:01.:49:04.

the time to make the pitch for the yes vote. Let's hear Billy talk to

:49:05.:49:13.

the undecided voters. We are always accused on the yes side of not being

:49:14.:49:16.

able to answer questions, and we always respond with talking about

:49:17.:49:22.

scaremongering, but we heard tonight somebody saying that if we vote yes

:49:23.:49:27.

we are looking down the barrel at a financial crisis. I would just like

:49:28.:49:30.

to say where have we been for the last six years. This country is ?1.

:49:31.:49:39.

4 trillion in debt. Financial crisi scare monger, you are talking ing, I

:49:40.:49:47.

have been asking one question of the no side for the last two years and I

:49:48.:49:52.

have not heard one sensible answer yet so unbehalf of these people here

:49:53.:50:00.

in what way does any country benefit from being subservient to another

:50:01.:50:08.

country. Thank you very much. And now it is down to you three in the

:50:09.:50:11.

middle, Jason, I will start with you, has anything you heard tonight

:50:12.:50:16.

from the people up here, from your fellow audience members changed your

:50:17.:50:20.

mind, helped you make your mind up? Unfortunately I would probably say

:50:21.:50:23.

no, I'm in the same position I was before. But that is swinging this

:50:24.:50:31.

way, to Gary's point. I would rather a rabble after an independence vote

:50:32.:50:37.

than the homogeneous mess than we have in Westminster right now. Sorry

:50:38.:50:43.

we are out of time, Lindsay your feelings? I have been disappointed

:50:44.:50:47.

by a lot of the negativity put forward by the no side of the

:50:48.:50:54.

audience and also a lot of real focussing on neo-liberal economic

:50:55.:50:57.

arguments, I want to live in a community not an economy. I want a

:50:58.:51:02.

Scotland based on equality and not the markets, I think that we have

:51:03.:51:05.

more of a chance for that under a yes vote. Have you just been won

:51:06.:51:18.

over, that sounds like two yes. Anne-Marie we started with you and

:51:19.:51:20.

will end with you, what are you feeling? I have heard both sides it

:51:21.:51:24.

is massively compelling to have somebody say in your house you look

:51:25.:51:28.

after your own finances because you have got your own interests. I don't

:51:29.:51:33.

think it is a selfish premise to say that you are being selfish to your

:51:34.:51:36.

neighbours that live two and three houses down because you are

:51:37.:51:40.

controlling your own budget and looking after your own house, I

:51:41.:51:45.

think it is a compelling argument and I probably would say there is

:51:46.:51:49.

more positivity coming from this side and it has been very negative.

:51:50.:51:53.

Your husband is on this side? I will speak to him when I go home. Thank

:51:54.:52:02.

you all very much indeed. A terrific audience with us. That is all we

:52:03.:52:05.

have time for, just to remind you, as if you didn't know, the polls

:52:06.:52:12.

open at 7.00 tomorrow, that is 7-and-a-half hours time. Kirsty is

:52:13.:52:16.

back tomorrow from Edinburgh, from all of us here, good night. Thanks

:52:17.:52:18.

for watching. Er The low cloud along the east

:52:19.:52:49.

coast is pushing back inland overnight. It will be a grey misty

:52:50.:52:53.

start for many of us, patchy fog into Scotland and north-east

:52:54.:52:55.

England. We should see the

:52:56.:52:57.

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