18/09/2014 Newsnight


18/09/2014

The stories behind the day's headlines. Kirsty Wark is in Edinburgh for the Scottish referendum and Katie Razzall reports from London.


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Transcript


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The Referendum is over, the polling stations are closed and the

:00:07.:00:12.

ballot-boxes are locked. Now will it be independence or the union for

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Scotland? Parliament of a country standing on

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Parliament of a country standing on than 300 years?

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ALEX SALMOND: I'm honoured to announce that we will hold

:00:36.:00:39.

Scotland's Referendum, an historic day when the people will decide

:00:40.:00:44.

Scotland's future. Delegates, it's game on for

:00:45.:00:49.

Scotland. I assume the flag is saw tire, I

:00:50.:00:57.

assume our capital will still be Edinburgh Burkes you still can't

:00:58.:01:01.

tell us what currency we'll have. We love our land, we love our people,

:01:02.:01:09.

we want freedom. If you don't like this government,

:01:10.:01:13.

it won't last forever, but if you leave the United Kingdom, that will

:01:14.:01:22.

be forever. This is everyone's flag, everyone's

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country, everyone's culture. I think it's an extremely important day for

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Scotland, probably the most important day of my life.

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Good evening from Edinburgh. There has been no day like it in the

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history of Scotland. This referendum has electrified the country and by

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first light we should know where stands Scotland. Outside the

:02:03.:02:06.

Scottish Parliament where we are with the Palace of Holyrood House

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behind us, we're here almost two years after the referendum on

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whether Scotland should become an independent country was announced

:02:14.:02:16.

jointly by the First Minister of Scotland, Alex Salmond and the Prime

:02:17.:02:19.

Minister, David Cameron. But it was in the last six weeks that the

:02:20.:02:23.

campaign really caught fire and today from the island of aran to

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Aberdeen, from Orkney to Dumfries, there were queues at polling

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stations saltires, Union flags, Yes banners and badges saying no.

:02:33.:02:35.

Tonight we'll be speaking to politicians, writers and business

:02:36.:02:39.

people. But first our chief correspondent Cubans Cubans has been

:02:40.:02:43.

sampling the atmosphere all day. She joins us from the count at Ingleston

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show ground on the edge of Edinburgh. What have you been

:02:48.:02:52.

hearing? Tense doesn't really begin to cover it. If you've ever imagined

:02:53.:02:57.

what an election count for a whole country looks like, well this is it.

:02:58.:03:01.

In this huge hall, and the counters here have an enormous job ahead of

:03:02.:03:06.

them. I've been hearing something really not entirely unexpected but

:03:07.:03:10.

rather extraordinary. I'm told that by about 7.00 this evening turn-out

:03:11.:03:15.

had already hit about 75%. So these counters who are just now starting

:03:16.:03:19.

to get down to work have a long night and a very, very big job ahead

:03:20.:03:25.

of them. Apparently in some parts of the country turn-out was hitting

:03:26.:03:30.

94%. The big question, of course, is which box did they put a cross in.

:03:31.:03:34.

The polls have been extremely tight and some people though are willing

:03:35.:03:38.

to make predictions. One of them is with us here tonight. Peter Kellner

:03:39.:03:43.

from the polling company YouGov, you are courageous enough to put a

:03:44.:03:47.

number on it this evening. Yes, our prediction tonight is that No has

:03:48.:03:52.

won this referendum by 54% with Yes getting 46%. We've polled 1800

:03:53.:03:56.

people today on-line after they voted, people we spoke to earlier

:03:57.:04:01.

this week, so we can look at what happened to real people and there's

:04:02.:04:05.

ban clear shift today, a small but clear shift from Yes to No. We also

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think that the No voters in the end were slightly more determined to

:04:11.:04:14.

turn-out than the Yes voters. Last night, Laura, I said there was an

:04:15.:04:19.

80% chance of a No victory, now at the risk of looking utterly

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ridiculous in eight hour's time, I would say it's a 99% chance of a No

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victory. We appreciate you taking the risk of looking wrong by the

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morning, but the polls in this particular event, can it be trusted

:04:34.:04:38.

in the same way as others? Can they, with such huge turn-out and an

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unprecedented question being asked? The unprecedented question does

:04:44.:04:45.

cause difficulty because we can't find out what happened last time

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because there isn't a last time. The turn-out helps us, as a pollster I'm

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more nervous about predicting the results of low turn-out elections

:04:53.:04:55.

like European elections because you're never quite sure who will

:04:56.:04:59.

turn out at all. With a high turn-out election you're pretty sure

:05:00.:05:01.

that anybody who says they're going to say yes or no will turn out. But

:05:02.:05:06.

today we think the No voters, at the margin, that little bit more

:05:07.:05:09.

determined to vote than the Yes voters. Thank you very much. Once

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again, that prediction from YouGov tonight is 54%, 46 with the unionist

:05:18.:05:25.

and No campaign in the lead. That gap is bigger that the polls have

:05:26.:05:31.

said in the recent days. Speaking to people today, casting their ballots,

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making sometimes those very last-minute decisions, it's been

:05:37.:05:38.

striking how difficult some people have found it to make their minds

:05:39.:05:44.

up, even at this late stage. The stakes really, forgive the cliche,

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for a lot of people could not feel any higher. Out and about in the

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streets of Scotland there was a tension you could almost taste.

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They have chosen, but are yet to know. Which path their lives, their

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country will take. Tonight they wait. He waits to know if he'll be

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the first leader of a different country, a Scotland that breaks

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away. Or a place that stays together, even if divided.

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More voters came than ever before. But this flowering of democracy can

:06:31.:06:38.

have an ugly face. You spend money or war but can't defend the

:06:39.:06:42.

pensioners. So you turn your back on the world. Not the rest of the

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world. You will mate. We've been a caring and sharing society. See

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that, that's your referendum for me. How are you going to vote? I'm

:06:50.:06:54.

voting yes. Why? Because inwant independence. Westminster have

:06:55.:07:00.

robbed me of my vote. What do you think will happen? It could go

:07:01.:07:04.

either way. I think Yes will get there. What will it mean to you if

:07:05.:07:10.

it is a Yes? Torture. This is the start of something big, I think,

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maybe for people to really get out there and make their voices heard.

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Still undecided but the polling station is open. Still undecided.

:07:22.:07:26.

Why haven't you? I don't know about all about what's happening. What are

:07:27.:07:32.

you going to do? I don't know. I'll have a good think today. For some it

:07:33.:07:37.

couldn't matter more, Paul worries in an independent Scotland he would

:07:38.:07:40.

lose his job in Glasgow's ship yards. For me personally, yeah,

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exactly, it's concerning what might mean for me, I might have move away,

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go down south to work. It's really concerning, it might have a

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significant impact on my own personal life. So you might move if

:07:54.:07:57.

it's Yes? It might be the case that I have to move to get alternative

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employment elsewhere. This is tense, it is a difficult, for a very simple

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reason. People here have just never had to make a decision this big

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before. But tonight he waits to know if his arguments for the union have

:08:12.:08:20.

beaten back a clamour for change. Political organisation for

:08:21.:08:23.

independence has stretched into new pockets of the country. So will

:08:24.:08:32.

disillusion SEEP back in if their hopes are not met? Apprehensive, but

:08:33.:08:38.

excited. Hoping for an independent result. Blame is already being cast.

:08:39.:08:46.

Here workers race to paint over a polling station dobbed with

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threatening graffiti. I'm saying I was accused of encouraging the

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graffiti on this hall which is a load of tripe. Predictions have

:08:55.:09:00.

though nearly always put the unionists

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though nearly always put the Edinburgh, the Yes campaign have

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worked their own intricate numbers. What they claim, the biggest ever

:09:07.:09:09.

operation in Scotland to get the vote out. If those efforts don't

:09:10.:09:17.

work though, activist Fran Gilhooley will be nothing less than broken

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hearted? I will be utterly, utterly gutted. It's everything we do. It's

:09:22.:09:26.

everything we are. You say it's everything to you. Right now,

:09:27.:09:30.

technically we are a sovereign state because now we have the decision

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now, right now. Are we going to keep it? Or are we going to hand it back?

:09:36.:09:41.

Because now we've actually got it, for this day. And this evening,

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excitement, yes, anxiety too. After more than 800 days of argument, this

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country knows good and bad things can come to those who wait.

:10:00.:10:05.

We'll be hearing from Laura later in the programme. But I'm joined by the

:10:06.:10:09.

Scottish businessman Jim McColl, Catherine MacLeod who used to advise

:10:10.:10:13.

Alastair Darling and the journalist John Harris. First of all, Jim

:10:14.:10:16.

McColl, you really backed the Yes campaign, you sent out more than

:10:17.:10:21.

half a million letters, that poll was only one poll, but it would be

:10:22.:10:24.

presumably incredibly disappointing for you? Yes, it would be. I think

:10:25.:10:29.

it's early in the evening and it's very brave to make a prediction like

:10:30.:10:33.

that. When you look at what Laura was saying about turn-out in some

:10:34.:10:37.

areas of 94%, how has it felt to you in the country? Real excitement and

:10:38.:10:43.

expectation and hope. It's a kind of carnival atmosphere. People are

:10:44.:10:46.

excited about it. Do you think it has galvanised people to think about

:10:47.:10:49.

politics the way they haven't done before? Absolutely, you hear the

:10:50.:10:52.

numbers on the turn-out. It's galvanised the population. I tell

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you who did galvanise the population, Katlehong RIN, that was

:10:58.:11:00.

the Yes campaign -- Catherine, that was the Yes campaign, you have to

:11:01.:11:04.

take your hat off to them, they absolutely came from behind and made

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the weather. I don't know if they made the weather, they certainly

:11:08.:11:12.

came from way behind although I think it was expected that the polls

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would always tighten. It was visible. I agree with Jim, it was an

:11:17.:11:22.

exhilarating and exciting campaign. I was in Glasgow yesterday and there

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were kids on the school talking about it on the street. My nephew in

:11:26.:11:30.

Inverness, there was excitement between him and his pals to vote

:11:31.:11:34.

today. That suggests there was a great deal of excitement and the

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accusation levelled at the Better Together Campaign run by your

:11:38.:11:41.

ex-boss was that it was consistently negative and that really played

:11:42.:11:45.

badly during the campaign? Well, consistently negative. I think in

:11:46.:11:50.

Scotland at the moment asking awkward questions, I think Alistair

:11:51.:11:53.

ended the campaign asking the same questions he asked at the beginning

:11:54.:11:56.

and what he would say is that he still didn't get an answer. If it is

:11:57.:12:00.

negative to say what is our currency, are we going to be a

:12:01.:12:04.

member of the European Union or NATO or what is going to happen? Perhaps

:12:05.:12:09.

that's then it was negative. But perhaps it might be how do you make

:12:10.:12:16.

no a positive? If Alistair had got sensible answers he might have

:12:17.:12:19.

changed questions. And Alistair's old boss Gordon Brown had to ride to

:12:20.:12:23.

the rescue at the end. How did that feel. We're hearing suggestions that

:12:24.:12:27.

Gordon Brown was put up to lead the Better Together campaign but David

:12:28.:12:30.

Cameron vetoed that? I have absolutely no idea. You're closer to

:12:31.:12:35.

these people than me. I've never heard that. I always intended Gordon

:12:36.:12:40.

to enter the campaign, his style is different from the other. I don't

:12:41.:12:44.

think he did ride to the rescue, the pair played the roles they were

:12:45.:12:48.

expect today play. I'll come to you John Harris, but we're going to

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speak to the chair of the Yes campaign, Denis Canavan. First of

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all, you probably heard on the basis of that one YouGov poll, Peter

:12:57.:13:01.

Kellner saying that actually it looks like 54 versus 46 that it will

:13:02.:13:07.

be a No victory. Can I have your reaction to that early poll, nothing

:13:08.:13:13.

definite about it, of course? That one poll does not tally with the

:13:14.:13:17.

reports that we're getting back from our campaign workers. We have fought

:13:18.:13:26.

a very, very successful grass-roots community-based campaign with

:13:27.:13:29.

thousands of trained campaign workers stretching all the way from

:13:30.:13:34.

the northern isles to the Borders of Scotland. I think at this stage I

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would rather take the feedback from them, albeit anecdotal rather than

:13:43.:13:46.

just one particular opinion poll. We'll see once the ballot-boxes

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opened and the votes are counted. I am still optimistic about a good

:13:50.:13:56.

result. But if that vote turns out to be true, and in fact in any way

:13:57.:14:01.

Better Together has got over the line, what is Alex Salmond going to

:14:02.:14:04.

say to the people of Scotland tomorrow? Well, that will be up to

:14:05.:14:10.

Alex Salmond obviously. I'm not a spokesperson for Alex Salmond. I

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have always said that as chair of the advisory board of the Yes

:14:14.:14:19.

Scotland campaign we're a broad, inclusive campaign consisting of

:14:20.:14:23.

representatives of various parties. If you're asking me what I would say

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in that event, I would say whatever the result I think the people of

:14:29.:14:33.

Scotland ought to work together to build a better Scotland, a more

:14:34.:14:37.

prosperous Scotland and a fairer Scotland. Thank you very much.

:14:38.:14:42.

Coming back to you, John Harris. Who are the victors in all this, are

:14:43.:14:48.

they people rather than Westminster? Yes, in a sense that people have

:14:49.:14:53.

either become acquainted for the first time, or reacquainted with

:14:54.:14:56.

thinking about politics and the tremendously profound way, whether

:14:57.:15:00.

Yes or No. I'm sort of an instinctively a greater fan of the

:15:01.:15:05.

Yes campaign. In the last weeks, you're saying, down the street, I

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would speak to waiters, bus drivers, there's a natural conversation about

:15:11.:15:14.

it, not forced. It's extraordinary. It's turned round that politics

:15:15.:15:17.

becomes part of everybody's discourse. Yes, when it slips out of

:15:18.:15:21.

the way that Westminster politics has tended to do, which is all

:15:22.:15:25.

couched into meaningless phrases about hard working families and a

:15:26.:15:29.

future fair for all and when it becomes about the fundamentals.

:15:30.:15:34.

These are the things we're told in England will alienate people,

:15:35.:15:36.

talking about good society and stuff like that. But what you find is that

:15:37.:15:41.

that's what gets people talking. Except that it may be that the

:15:42.:15:44.

appeal to people's pockets and the scare factor of what might happen to

:15:45.:15:47.

business might have played well. I know you were critical of that but

:15:48.:15:51.

actually it matters to people. People were told by business, by

:15:52.:15:57.

Standard Life by RBS that actually there was going to be a scare, that

:15:58.:16:00.

businesses would fold, they would take their headquarters out of

:16:01.:16:03.

Scotland. What do you make of that? I think there was a lot of

:16:04.:16:09.

scaremongering going on, around the pound to start with, where Cameron

:16:10.:16:13.

clearly identified three conditions needed, and what we got from the

:16:14.:16:17.

other side was we're not going to negotiate. That's scaremongering.

:16:18.:16:22.

But at the end of the day, if you have got a big business community

:16:23.:16:28.

which puts its force behind Better Together, then they're the ones that

:16:29.:16:32.

are going to be, push the point across. It was a sample of big

:16:33.:16:35.

businesses. You have to remember that in the UK and in Scotland in

:16:36.:16:43.

particular most businesses are Sme,s small and immediate sized

:16:44.:16:47.

enterprises. We saw a few leaders of some of the big businesses

:16:48.:16:50.

strongarmed by Downing Street to go out after the Yes campaign showed a

:16:51.:16:55.

lead last weekend. Catherine MacLeod, that whole idea of pulling

:16:56.:17:00.

business in and making - do you think it actually would have made

:17:01.:17:03.

any difference indeed whether tomorrow morning we get an

:17:04.:17:06.

independence vote or not to business in Scotland? They said it did. It's

:17:07.:17:10.

to the for me to say that it did or it didn't. I think it was back to

:17:11.:17:15.

the, they probably were strongarmed out. It was better that they were

:17:16.:17:19.

strongarmed out to say what they had to say than saying nothing. But it's

:17:20.:17:24.

actually a facet of Westminster politics that people hate. If people

:17:25.:17:29.

like ASDA and Marks and Spencers and John Lewis say prices will go up and

:17:30.:17:34.

RBS. After being told by David Cameron. Whether after seeing David

:17:35.:17:39.

Cameron or not. It explains quite a shift in the polls towards the end.

:17:40.:17:43.

It explains - I think the Yes vote was always going to harden quickly

:17:44.:17:47.

and when people saw the risk they were prepared to say no. It's not

:17:48.:17:51.

the greatest shame of the No campaign. Business would inevitably

:17:52.:17:53.

say those things, the greatest shame to me was that is it struck me that

:17:54.:17:57.

progressive politics in Scotland in the form of the Labour Party, A,

:17:58.:18:01.

seems to be organisationally broken and seems to have lost the ability

:18:02.:18:09.

to occupy the praise optimist. 30% of VOEFRTS voters endered the idea

:18:10.:18:14.

of saying yesterday. -- entertained the idea of saying yes. When David

:18:15.:18:19.

Cameron vetoed Alex Salmond's plans to put the option of Devo Max on the

:18:20.:18:21.

ballot-paper. He promised there would be new powers for Scotland but

:18:22.:18:24.

they would only be revealed in the event of a No vote today. But as the

:18:25.:18:29.

opinion polls tightened, the No campaign panicked and that resolve

:18:30.:18:34.

flew out of the window. On Monday Cameron, Clegg and Darling promised

:18:35.:18:38.

Scotland lots of presence. Extra revenue raising powers, keeping the

:18:39.:18:41.

Barnett form a and more freedom to spend on the NHS but that went down

:18:42.:18:44.

badly just about everywhere else in the UK. So as our Political Editor,

:18:45.:18:48.

Allegra Stratton reports, whether we wake up to an independent Scotland

:18:49.:18:51.

tomorrow or not, the reality is that a huge political storm is about to

:18:52.:18:52.

blow up. It's 6.00 on Friday 19th September.

:18:53.:19:07.

This is Today with Justin Webb and Jim - the headline this morning,

:19:08.:19:11.

Scotland has voted for independence, bringing to an end a 300-year-old

:19:12.:19:17.

political union. Alex Salmond declared a new dawn had broken over

:19:18.:19:24.

a free and fair Scotland... A whirlwind is tearing through

:19:25.:19:29.

Westminster. The articles of union were signed three centuries ago here

:19:30.:19:33.

on the site of the Palace of Whitehall, but now, at dawn, the

:19:34.:19:38.

last Prime Minister of the United Kingdom rings Alex Salmond to

:19:39.:19:43.

acknowledge they're deFURNG. -- defunct. David Cameron makes a

:19:44.:19:48.

statement and calls an emergency Cabinet while liaising with the Bank

:19:49.:19:51.

of England to steady the markets. Parliament is recalled on Saturday,

:19:52.:19:54.

the first time since the Falklands, this time it's more serious. Many

:19:55.:19:58.

people in the Conservative Party and many people on the back benches

:19:59.:20:05.

think this would be a tragedy and consequently those people will

:20:06.:20:11.

believe as I do that -- the Prime Minister needs to consider his

:20:12.:20:14.

situation considerably. David Cameron will face calls for a motion

:20:15.:20:19.

of No confidence that could trigger an early election. He might embrace

:20:20.:20:24.

this and go to the British people on a platform of who powers he would

:20:25.:20:28.

separate Scotland. But there are people in his own party who think he

:20:29.:20:35.

might have to resign itself. And a caretaker Prime Minister could be

:20:36.:20:39.

within a matter of weeks much then there are others and this faction

:20:40.:20:42.

even includes his fiercest critics who think David Cameron should stick

:20:43.:20:46.

around and sort out a mess of his own making. Undoubtedly David

:20:47.:20:49.

Cameron will have a lot of pressure against him. The man who lost

:20:50.:20:53.

Scotland will be the jibe used. But it's very difficult to think of an

:20:54.:20:57.

immediate alternative. We're into such unforeseen circumstances. Such

:20:58.:21:02.

unstable; the Tory MPs are very angry both what will have led to a

:21:03.:21:05.

possible Yes and also what's been said over the last TEB days. It's a

:21:06.:21:10.

very, very -- ten days, it's a very, very unstable situation. Scottish

:21:11.:21:15.

secretary Alistair Carmichael said he would resign government to join

:21:16.:21:20.

Alex Salmond's 18-month negotiating team. Ministers like Danny Alexander

:21:21.:21:24.

would be under pressure to force suit. There would be immediate

:21:25.:21:27.

demands to limit voting rights of Scottish MPs, bad for Labour and the

:21:28.:21:31.

Lib Dems ahead of the election. At the Cabinet meeting last week

:21:32.:21:35.

Newsnight understands that the Chancellor said to the assembled

:21:36.:21:38.

Cabinet ministers any contingency planning going on in their

:21:39.:21:41.

departments should be stopped immediately, no E-mails, no nothing.

:21:42.:21:44.

Of course, conversations might be going on off line, but nonetheless,

:21:45.:21:49.

it's fair to say that the machinery of government does not feel

:21:50.:21:51.

particularly ready for Scottish independence. Many in Westminster

:21:52.:21:56.

talk about the ramifications of Scotland going it alone, taking some

:21:57.:21:59.

20 to 30 years to be fully understood.

:22:00.:22:07.

It's 6.00 on Friday 19th September, good morning, this is Today with

:22:08.:22:13.

Justin Webb. The headline this morning: Scotland has voted to

:22:14.:22:19.

remain part of the United Kingdom. In his concession speech, Alex

:22:20.:22:21.

Salmond challenged Westminster to deliver on its promise of home rule

:22:22.:22:29.

for Scotland. The bleary eyed of Downing Street exhale, no

:22:30.:22:32.

territorial carvup of the UK will happen on their watch. Alex Salmond

:22:33.:22:37.

greets the dawn with talk of more referendums, but at 7am David

:22:38.:22:40.

Cameron makes a statement. He's got problems nonetheless. I believe

:22:41.:22:44.

Parliament needs to be recalled as a matter of urgency, I think it must

:22:45.:22:50.

be recalled on Monday. In order that Parliament meets and discusses these

:22:51.:22:55.

issues before the conference and at least sends out a very strong signal

:22:56.:23:00.

that it now believes that the English voice needs to be heard.

:23:01.:23:04.

Conservative politicians are furious that it is Gordon Brown, the man

:23:05.:23:08.

they ousted from Downing Street four years ago who is now writing the

:23:09.:23:12.

powers that will be handed over from Westminster to Holyrood. In the next

:23:13.:23:16.

few weeks the three parties have to come to some agreement about what

:23:17.:23:19.

powers they will actually hand over to Scotland. Gordon Brown's

:23:20.:23:23.

timetable sees proposals put forward by November and at the end of

:23:24.:23:27.

January there will be concrete measures. Some Cabinet ministers are

:23:28.:23:30.

already saying it's not possible to see how they can meet that

:23:31.:23:35.

timetable. To stem Tory fury there's

:23:36.:23:39.

speculation David Cameron will, on Friday, announce measures to protect

:23:40.:23:43.

English MPs. Labour will fiercely resist anything that makes Scottish

:23:44.:23:48.

MPs second-class. But even Ed Miliband's own former aid believes

:23:49.:23:53.

change is needed -- aide. First, you have to have a Constitutional

:23:54.:23:55.

Convention in England. Secondly we are going to have change in

:23:56.:23:58.

Westminster. It's clear that the more powers go to the Scottish

:23:59.:24:01.

Parliament the less you can have Scottish MPs voting on the same

:24:02.:24:04.

issues for England. That's got to change in one way or another.

:24:05.:24:09.

Thirdly, though, England is much too centralised, so this isn't just

:24:10.:24:12.

about reducing the influence of Scottish MPs in Westminster, it's

:24:13.:24:15.

about getting English decisions out of Westminster. Up and away out of

:24:16.:24:22.

Westminster indeed. Tomorrow whatever happens much power will

:24:23.:24:25.

begin to be moved from London and another chapter begins for the

:24:26.:24:32.

mother of all parliaments. Parliaments. Joining us from

:24:33.:24:36.

Westminster is the former Conservative Defence Minister Liam

:24:37.:24:39.

Fox. Good evening. This is a hornet's nest. Do you

:24:40.:24:44.

think that David Cameron worked out his strategy the best he could from

:24:45.:24:47.

the beginning? I think whether we think it was a good strategy will

:24:48.:24:51.

rather depend on what the result is. Having spent the day up in Glasgow

:24:52.:24:55.

today I wouldn't be surprised if we got a result of about 55-45. I think

:24:56.:25:03.

there are a number of things we need to do right away. The first is that

:25:04.:25:08.

there will be a lot of healing to be done. There's potentially a lot of

:25:09.:25:11.

bitterness and recrimination. That needs to be handle. That is the

:25:12.:25:15.

first thing. The second thing is to understand the wider issues we have

:25:16.:25:19.

to face. I think there are three, and probably in order of difficulty

:25:20.:25:22.

the easiest first is the sort of policy areas that we might want to

:25:23.:25:28.

have extended devolution in. What is going to be reserved at Westminster

:25:29.:25:31.

and what are these new powers going to be. Let me ask you, Liam Fox,

:25:32.:25:37.

should Devo Max have been on the paper? Would that have obviated all

:25:38.:25:43.

this? Again, it would be depending what it means. What we now need to

:25:44.:25:47.

see is what actually the details are, what are the extra policy areas

:25:48.:25:52.

where devolution might come into and what are the tax varying powers that

:25:53.:25:55.

might be proposed. We need to see the details and really tonight of

:25:56.:25:59.

all nights we have to avoid knee jerk reactions on that. The second

:26:00.:26:04.

area we need to look at is now unavoidable, which is the English

:26:05.:26:07.

question. And the West Lothian question and what now do we do about

:26:08.:26:12.

an imbalance in our constitutional relationship. There are a number of

:26:13.:26:15.

ways we can address that but I think now it will have to be addressed and

:26:16.:26:18.

politicians have ducked the question for too long. The third, but most

:26:19.:26:23.

difficult issue, I think will relate to the financial settlement. And

:26:24.:26:27.

exactly how we see that across the United Kingdom. I've thought for a

:26:28.:26:35.

long time that we needed to look at deprivation indices across the

:26:36.:26:39.

country a little more closely when allocating funding and we have a

:26:40.:26:42.

strong incentive to do that. But do you think that in all this there

:26:43.:26:45.

should be an English Parliament? That is where we're heading if there

:26:46.:26:51.

is a No vote. I'm not in favour of a separate English Parliament because

:26:52.:26:56.

I think that with parish councils, town councils, district councils,

:26:57.:26:58.

county councils, Westminster, the last thing we require is another

:26:59.:27:02.

level of government; but I do think effectively what we must ensure is

:27:03.:27:07.

that Scottish MPs who cannot vote on issues like health and education in

:27:08.:27:11.

Scotland, should not be entitled to vote on health and education in

:27:12.:27:17.

constituencies like mine in north Somerset. It is profoundly

:27:18.:27:20.

undemocratic and unfair. It needs to be dealt with. Do you think the way

:27:21.:27:24.

all this came about essentially was that, you could put it this way,

:27:25.:27:27.

David Cameron was bounced into all this by a failed politician in

:27:28.:27:30.

Gordon Brown, a failed leader and actually it would have been better

:27:31.:27:34.

if this had been an initiative fought out rather than one that

:27:35.:27:39.

seems designed to annoy English Conservative backbenchers, not just

:27:40.:27:42.

Conservative backbenchers. It will not just be Conservative

:27:43.:27:45.

backbenchers, you're quite right. I think a lot of the problems came

:27:46.:27:50.

from the very imbalanced constitutional settlement that came

:27:51.:27:52.

with devolution under Tony Blair and Gordon Brown in the first place. The

:27:53.:27:56.

whole question of what happens about governance in England has never

:27:57.:28:00.

properly been addressed. It now does need to be addressed. We are going

:28:01.:28:04.

to get, almost certainly I think tonight, a No vote. Scotland will

:28:05.:28:07.

remain in the union, we therefore have to decide what the new balance

:28:08.:28:11.

inside this union is going to be going forward that gives us the best

:28:12.:28:17.

chance to maintain stability and to diminish some of those divisions

:28:18.:28:20.

that have very sadly emerged in the last few weeks. Liam Fox, thank you

:28:21.:28:25.

very much indeed. Now we're joined by the Times

:28:26.:28:29.

columnist and Conservative peer Danny Finkelstein. Turning to you,

:28:30.:28:33.

Danny Finkelstein, I think we feel in need of what you can give us by

:28:34.:28:38.

way of that incisive analytical brain and from the position of being

:28:39.:28:42.

a Lord of the realm. What do you think has been going on more broadly

:28:43.:28:48.

today, this churn, this change, it may be happening in Scotland but

:28:49.:28:51.

actually the ramifications are for the whole of the United Kingdom no

:28:52.:28:53.

matter what? I think there's going to be quite a serious, as everyone

:28:54.:28:58.

has been saying, sharp English question that comes up tomorrow. I'm

:28:59.:29:02.

slightly puzzled by the suggestion that Gordon Brown forced the Devo

:29:03.:29:07.

Max on to the agenda because actually, the Conservative party had

:29:08.:29:10.

a report that's taken a year to prepare that came out at the end of

:29:11.:29:13.

May on the question of what powers might be devolved. But the two

:29:14.:29:18.

issues on which I think the campaign was bounced and did panic were the

:29:19.:29:22.

time line and the question of the Barnett formula, in other words the

:29:23.:29:25.

question of the Scottish financial settlement. Those two things are

:29:26.:29:27.

going to cause big political trouble. They're going to cause

:29:28.:29:30.

trouble in Parliament because of trying to assemble a Coalition in

:29:31.:29:34.

the Conservative Party that might support the Prime Minister on the

:29:35.:29:37.

Barnett formula and trying to have a Coalition with the Liberal Democrats

:29:38.:29:40.

on the question of what you do for English MPs. Actually, far from it

:29:41.:29:44.

being the case that at the last minute Scotland has been promised a

:29:45.:29:47.

lot of powers, what's really happened is that Scotland has been

:29:48.:29:50.

promised and accelerated timetable that I think will be difficult to

:29:51.:29:56.

deliver. Difficult to deliver, but let's stick with the idea of the

:29:57.:30:03.

Barnett formula because that was something that was desperately

:30:04.:30:06.

needed to be changed as far as the Conservatives were concerned and

:30:07.:30:09.

it's stuck. And it's the one thing that will cause a lot of anger in

:30:10.:30:12.

the rest of the country and it will mean MPs from all parties will dig

:30:13.:30:15.

their heels in? The Barnett formula is a short hand. There are two

:30:16.:30:19.

elements, the Barnett formula itself about how you allocate increases in

:30:20.:30:23.

spending and that's population based and the Barnett formula may need

:30:24.:30:26.

some adjustment but isn't the problem. The basic problem is that

:30:27.:30:32.

of the settlement underneath the Barnett formula in other words

:30:33.:30:34.

Scotland's financial settlement. The Barnett formula therefore being a

:30:35.:30:38.

short hand, what has been promised in the vow isn't actually what

:30:39.:30:41.

everyone is angry about. What everyone is angry about is that

:30:42.:30:45.

Scotland starts with a bigger financial settlement. So, actually,

:30:46.:30:49.

it is possible to revisit that. You just heard Liam Fox talk about

:30:50.:30:53.

revisiting the way that you allocate spending across the whole of

:30:54.:30:56.

government in which Scotland may gain in some areas and lose in

:30:57.:30:59.

others without touching the Barnett formula. Do you think now there's

:31:00.:31:03.

going to be a bigger adjustment, that actually what's going to happen

:31:04.:31:06.

eventually if he fact tow is a move towards a federalism? Everyone said

:31:07.:31:10.

about English votes for English laws which is something I was involved in

:31:11.:31:13.

when I worked for the Conservative Party in developing. Everyone said

:31:14.:31:17.

the way of dealing with that is never to ask the West Lothian

:31:18.:31:20.

question, and what happened in this campaign is that that idea, which

:31:21.:31:25.

Tony Blair clung to, has become untenable. It is absolutely

:31:26.:31:30.

inevitable that there will now be a move towards some sorted of English

:31:31.:31:33.

votes for English laws in one form or another. But it will be very

:31:34.:31:37.

problematic for Labour and, therefore, they will resist it and

:31:38.:31:39.

of course the Conservatives don't have a majority in Parliament.

:31:40.:31:42.

That's what makes the time line difficult. Will they be able to, as

:31:43.:31:47.

they suggested, to actually agree the deal behind the vow between

:31:48.:31:51.

them? I think there are lots of ways in which they might not be able to.

:31:52.:31:55.

I think we're starting a period of great uncertainty, actually. Thank

:31:56.:31:58.

you very much. The BBC's Allan Little has been

:31:59.:32:02.

following the campaigns every step of the way, and he has rushed from

:32:03.:32:06.

the main count to be with us now. You have covered everything. Bosnia

:32:07.:32:12.

to Rwanda, been all over the world. You're back home now and covered

:32:13.:32:14.

this campaign. We're going to see some pictures in a minute or two of

:32:15.:32:18.

what's happened this evening. What's the last, particularly the last six

:32:19.:32:22.

weeks felt like to you? There's been a lot of talk and quite rightly

:32:23.:32:26.

about the atmosphere of menace and intimidation that has sometimes

:32:27.:32:32.

infused this campaign. Atmosphere, relatively few actually incidents.

:32:33.:32:37.

Nobody has been punched in the face. Our Deputy Prime Minister punched a

:32:38.:32:42.

voter in the face in a recent general election, it hasn't here.

:32:43.:32:46.

No, but we heard about intimidation, we tried to get guests on the show.

:32:47.:32:51.

People have been concerned particularly women. There has been

:32:52.:32:55.

some? Yes there has been some but my overwhelming opinion is that this

:32:56.:32:58.

extraordinary national debate has been conducted with civility and

:32:59.:33:01.

mutual respect. You and I both know that most families in Scotland have

:33:02.:33:06.

Yes and No voters within them. People living next door to each

:33:07.:33:10.

other. They disagree with civility and politeness for the most part.

:33:11.:33:18.

This progress has happened in an old and entrenched democracy, this

:33:19.:33:22.

wouldn't have been settled -- Look at this now. What is amazing,

:33:23.:33:25.

everyone is still out on the streets. They're not saying we voted

:33:26.:33:30.

now. You can hear them behind us in Holyrood. Here they are in George

:33:31.:33:36.

Square. The place is full of revellers, it's as if there's, to me

:33:37.:33:40.

there's a reinvigoration of the national debate in the sense that -

:33:41.:33:45.

I'm hearing conversations all the time, unself conscious conversations

:33:46.:33:47.

where people before would say it's not for me, it's for everybody. It

:33:48.:33:53.

is, on both sides. Remarkably empowering and engauging. The Yes

:33:54.:33:56.

campaign started this. They gave up on the conventional media early on

:33:57.:34:01.

and they got very active on social media, started producing their own

:34:02.:34:04.

journalism, their own ways of communicating with each other. I

:34:05.:34:06.

think the difference between the No campaign and the Yes campaign, is

:34:07.:34:10.

that the No campaign has been relatively speaking quite a

:34:11.:34:12.

conventional campaign, passionate of course in defence of the union,

:34:13.:34:16.

people speaking very passionately about that, but the Yes campaign,

:34:17.:34:20.

people have been persuaded to vote Yes, they've been persuaded by

:34:21.:34:22.

people they respect in their own lives and not by people they see on

:34:23.:34:27.

television. That I think has ban very important difference, something

:34:28.:34:30.

quite democratising has been happening. Particularly, not SCLU

:34:31.:34:38.

civil but particularly on the Yes -- exclusively but particularly on the

:34:39.:34:42.

Yes side of the arguments. It's 100 years since the first Scottish Home

:34:43.:34:47.

Rule Bill passed its second vote at Westminster only to be kyboshed by

:34:48.:34:50.

the assassination of Archduke Franz Ferdinand. After that home rule

:34:51.:34:54.

stuttered on and off the agenda until the SNP first showed some

:34:55.:34:58.

muscle in the 1967 #0S. But then it was never a match for the dyed in

:34:59.:35:02.

the wool tribal Labour vote that seemed to be as strong as the Forth

:35:03.:35:06.

Rail Bridge. So how did the SNP pull the feet from under the Labour

:35:07.:35:11.

establishment to transform from a protest movement to a party that has

:35:12.:35:14.

brought this country to the brink much independence? Here's Laura

:35:15.:35:20.

again. A song, a dream of a new country for

:35:21.:35:26.

SNP stalwarts, a long time coming, she can hardly believe her eyes.

:35:27.:35:35.

Today is unbelievable. From when we started in 1974, people thought we

:35:36.:35:39.

were dreaming. But our dream is coming true. What was a fringe party

:35:40.:35:48.

fills Inverness' streets, unionists can only look on. I hate to see

:35:49.:35:53.

songs being used as a political weapon, to be honest. How did it get

:35:54.:35:59.

to this. Supporters of independence so emboldened they can take on

:36:00.:36:01.

British Cabinet ministers in the street. You're not at Westminster

:36:02.:36:08.

now, you're standing here as someone who's... And your BBC cronies. They

:36:09.:36:13.

won't tell the truth. The charge, the excitement of Scottish

:36:14.:36:17.

Nationalist politics is new, the power built haltingly in cities,

:36:18.:36:21.

small villages and towns over decades. Few single issue or small

:36:22.:36:26.

parties ever make it from relative object security to the mainstream.

:36:27.:36:30.

And when Alex Salmond was first elected here nearly 20 years ago

:36:31.:36:35.

much beyond local success didn't seem impossible, but the SNP's

:36:36.:36:41.

long-term dream was very far away. For some local members, it even

:36:42.:36:45.

began with ridicule. I can remember my father served his time in the

:36:46.:36:50.

ship yards on Clyde and then he worked in the torpedo fact tree in

:36:51.:36:55.

Alexandria. I remember him coming home and flinging his Labour Party

:36:56.:36:58.

rosette down and said "son, they're not for us". He went out and helped

:36:59.:37:06.

form a branch of the SNP. I joined and I took part in that. I'm

:37:07.:37:10.

reminded at that time of the quote by Gandhi, "first they ignore you,

:37:11.:37:14.

then they laugh at you, then they fight you and then you win". The

:37:15.:37:27.

first solid victory was Winnie ewing. In 1967. On the stump her son

:37:28.:37:34.

told us what she said still goes. She is one of the very few people

:37:35.:37:36.

who tells Alex Salmond who to do. Scotland's oil is now worth a

:37:37.:37:55.

minimum of ?155 million, what are we Scots going to get from it without

:37:56.:38:00.

self-government. Ewing's election, then the oil bounty grew interest in

:38:01.:38:06.

home rule. It's her oil so why are many in sub standard houses. Other

:38:07.:38:10.

MPs followed. A huge Labour majority overturned. In 1979 a majority of

:38:11.:38:16.

Scots who voted chose devolution but too few turned out to make it

:38:17.:38:23.

happen. Despite defeat and through squabbles

:38:24.:38:27.

in the '80s, a more organised and determined party emerged under this

:38:28.:38:31.

man. It's a government of occupation we face in Scotland just as surely

:38:32.:38:36.

as if they had an army at their backs. Alex created a modern

:38:37.:38:41.

political party that could take on the parties of the British state and

:38:42.:38:46.

beat them. In terms of discipline, in terms of their imagination and

:38:47.:38:51.

how they campaigned, in their ability to start researching and

:38:52.:38:55.

start he had KAGT people. But -- educating people. But it was

:38:56.:38:59.

Labour's decision to create the Scottish Parliament which allowed

:39:00.:39:03.

the SNP to get serious. When Scottish voters eventually got their

:39:04.:39:04.

Parliament there were questions about whether the SNP would still be

:39:05.:39:09.

relevant. Instead, devolution gave them a bigger platform. The

:39:10.:39:18.

outsiders turned insiders. The SNP surge in 2011 meant for the first

:39:19.:39:22.

time a vote ongoing it alone was real. And with it so close now, even

:39:23.:39:28.

if there's defeat this week, can the demand fade? A vote against Yes this

:39:29.:39:32.

time they might think it's all over, not going to happen that way.

:39:33.:39:39.

Many Scots share none of this jubilation, but the question first

:39:40.:39:44.

asked by a handful of activists so long ago will this week be answered

:39:45.:39:52.

on every street in the country. Here with us in our studio

:39:53.:39:58.

overlooking the Scottish Parliament building are the writer AL Kennedy

:39:59.:40:06.

and the Spectator Magazine's writer and blog Alex Massie. On that point

:40:07.:40:11.

where Labour offered limited devolution they thought they would

:40:12.:40:14.

shoot the SNP's fox and they did nothing of the sort. No because the

:40:15.:40:19.

SNP managed to present itself as the patriotic body, the will of the

:40:20.:40:23.

Scottish people if you like, it's done so by being different types of

:40:24.:40:26.

organisation in different parts of the country look at some of its

:40:27.:40:31.

strong holds it has supplanted the Conservatives but also subsequently

:40:32.:40:33.

made great inroads in Dundee and parts of the central belt. At the

:40:34.:40:37.

expense of Labour. Because it has managed to say that it is standing

:40:38.:40:40.

up for Scotland's interests against both Labour and the Conservatives.

:40:41.:40:45.

How much has that been the political acumen of Alex Salmond that who for

:40:46.:40:50.

a long time has outwitted the main political parties? It's difficult to

:40:51.:40:56.

imagine that the SNP could have come so far without Alex Salmond, he's

:40:57.:40:59.

been the dominant figure for 30 years now. But I think there are

:41:00.:41:02.

other forces at work that have contributed to the SNP's rise and it

:41:03.:41:07.

would have back prominent force in Scottish politics even without Alex

:41:08.:41:12.

Salmond. Alison, you don't live in Scotland any more but you come and

:41:13.:41:15.

go and I know you're a Yes supporter. How does this look like

:41:16.:41:19.

to the rest of the UK. When you talk to people elsewhere what do they

:41:20.:41:22.

think of it? Lots of people find it exciting. It's such an unfamiliar

:41:23.:41:27.

experience for the media, so they're on the back foot. It was a surprise

:41:28.:41:30.

in many ways to lots of the politicians and there's been even

:41:31.:41:38.

more of a clear mismatch between an educated, sophisticated electorate

:41:39.:41:41.

who are good at voting tactically, who have been looking into the facts

:41:42.:41:45.

and who have a tradition of self-education in this country. And

:41:46.:41:48.

they've been ahead of the media and ahead of the politicians. And some

:41:49.:41:52.

of the media's spin on what the politicians have been saying, on

:41:53.:41:57.

both sides, it's been as depressing and as evoking of apathy and low

:41:58.:42:02.

turn-outs and all the things the politicians blame the electorate

:42:03.:42:05.

for. But down south the idea of change and the idea of general, now,

:42:06.:42:10.

a genuine democracy breaking up, people queuing to register to vote.

:42:11.:42:15.

97% of the available electorate registering. And around 90%

:42:16.:42:20.

turn-out. We're seeing now some of the latest pictures coming in from

:42:21.:42:24.

around the country. We can see there out at Holyrood lots and lots of

:42:25.:42:29.

people with banners, people dancing and people generally feeling the

:42:30.:42:34.

mood. Absolutely. These are the apathetic young people and voters!

:42:35.:42:37.

That's another thing we haven't talked about. The energising of that

:42:38.:42:42.

16 and 17-year-olds, it's a one-off in this debate. I wonder how young

:42:43.:42:46.

people will feel when it's removed from them in the future. How do you

:42:47.:42:50.

think that's changed the debate? TFRNLGTS remains to be seen. Early

:42:51.:42:54.

polls suggested 16 and 17-year-olds would vote against independence. I

:42:55.:42:56.

think that moved in the course of the debate. The Yes campaign

:42:57.:43:00.

resembled a carnival for a lot of this. Something quite profound has

:43:01.:43:03.

happened here. Whatever way this turns out tonight, half the

:43:04.:43:08.

population of one of the kingdoms of the union has repudiated the

:43:09.:43:12.

English-Scottish union. There is a crisis of legitimates here, there is

:43:13.:43:18.

a crisis of popular and democratic legitimacy. If the Westminster

:43:19.:43:22.

establishment, the three Westminster parties think they can F they win

:43:23.:43:27.

this tonight, they can go back to Westminster and thinking job done,

:43:28.:43:32.

union saved, then they'll lose. And the Herald's Political Editor saying

:43:33.:43:35.

it may be 100% turn-out in some areas. Reports across the country

:43:36.:43:39.

showing the turn-out has exceeded even the most optimistic

:43:40.:43:41.

expectations which is quite something. But it's not surprising

:43:42.:43:45.

given the order of magnitude, the importance of the day. Yes, but the

:43:46.:43:49.

genie is out of the bottle now, I wonder what you feel about that. If

:43:50.:43:56.

Peter Kellner is right and it is a quite clear, decisive No vote, what

:43:57.:44:00.

happens to the national psyche? Will people think things have changed and

:44:01.:44:04.

have a positive attitude or will there be an almost depression set

:44:05.:44:10.

in? All kinds of things have been - however it goes the idea of defining

:44:11.:44:14.

nationality by "you live here so you can vote "I hate that I can't vote.

:44:15.:44:18.

nationality by "you live here so you I don't live here so I don't have a

:44:19.:44:21.

vote. I was having - There were bizarre things, people

:44:22.:44:23.

vote. I was having - There were here for Lee weeks had a vote. There

:44:24.:44:27.

were strange things happening? Yes, but it was so beautiful,

:44:28.:44:32.

particularly at this time in Europe where nationalism have other faces,

:44:33.:44:35.

to say if you live here, you're one of us. It's an important thing to

:44:36.:44:39.

say. I wonder also looking at the way Gordon Brown rode in at the end

:44:40.:44:44.

and actually, he looked like he was in his element and he hasn't looked

:44:45.:44:48.

like that for many years. It was as if he found a cause again. I wonder

:44:49.:44:53.

how Alastair Darling is feeling about that, but I wonder what you

:44:54.:44:56.

think about that, that Brown found his voice again. He suddenly did. It

:44:57.:45:01.

was like seeing a 20th century Gordon Brown rather than a 21st

:45:02.:45:05.

century Gordon Brown. There was also the intention that Labour need today

:45:06.:45:08.

bring it's so-called big guns into the campaign even at the latest of

:45:09.:45:15.

late stages. This has still been a very bad campaign for Labour. It's

:45:16.:45:21.

been a good campaign for Scotland but a bad few months for the Labour

:45:22.:45:24.

Party north and south of the border. Hold that a minute. We're going to

:45:25.:45:28.

keep Alan and Alison and if Westminster came late to the

:45:29.:45:32.

referendum the world is now here too with broadcasters from every

:45:33.:45:34.

conceivable country, and the Kurds and the Catalans. We sent Duncan out

:45:35.:45:37.

to get a flavour of the atmosphere. Can I ask what country you're from?

:45:38.:45:48.

Denmark. How much attention is Denmark giving? Enormous, we're

:45:49.:45:51.

broadcasting all the time and have been for over a week. We're

:45:52.:45:56.

completely obsessed with this story. Why are you in Scotland? We are here

:45:57.:46:02.

because we're an Austrian minority in Italy, we are here to support our

:46:03.:46:08.

friends. We're from Barcelona. Here's the

:46:09.:46:13.

thing, a lot of Catalans have come, not only to broadcast but many

:46:14.:46:17.

tourist to see how things are going here.

:46:18.:46:27.

Can I ask where you're from? From Taiwan China, another country, I'm

:46:28.:46:30.

glad to have a discussion with people from Catalonia. And we're

:46:31.:46:32.

going live to Sao Paulo. Yes. We're joined now by Professor Ewen

:46:33.:46:52.

Cameron, Professor Of Scottish history and he joins Alison Kennedy

:46:53.:46:57.

and Allan Little. I wonder, you're a man who has studied the union, WHOU

:46:58.:47:00.

do you think after tonight F this poll is correct, how different will

:47:01.:47:04.

the -- if this poll is correct, how different will the union look? It

:47:05.:47:07.

will look very different regardless of the result. If there's a No vote

:47:08.:47:11.

I think we're almost certainly likely to see more powers to the

:47:12.:47:15.

Scottish Parliament. That will change the balance of power within

:47:16.:47:19.

the union because if the Parliament over there gets more power over

:47:20.:47:23.

taxation and spending then it really does fundamentally alter the game.

:47:24.:47:27.

Looking at the discourse and how this has all been conducted, do you

:47:28.:47:32.

think this re-energised political debate, not within Parliament or

:47:33.:47:36.

Westminster, but out here, people shouting and singing, do you think

:47:37.:47:39.

they'll keep that involvement up? I hope so. We've had other moments in

:47:40.:47:43.

the Scottish history, in the 1880s or 1920s when we've had this sudden

:47:44.:47:46.

burst of energy into Scottish politics. In some subsequent periods

:47:47.:47:51.

it's been lost. I think this has to be carefully nurtured by the

:47:52.:47:55.

politicians on all sides so we do capture some of this enthusiasm for

:47:56.:47:59.

a slightly longer period. Alan, we were talking earlier about Alex

:48:00.:48:03.

Salmond, win or lose, has this been Alex Salmond's finest hour? I think

:48:04.:48:11.

he's won whatever happens. Alex Salmond has always been a

:48:12.:48:16.

gradualist, he wanted the third option, enhanced devolution. What is

:48:17.:48:20.

being offered by the three Westminster parties is not Devo Max,

:48:21.:48:23.

it's some kind of enhanced devolution that we don't know what

:48:24.:48:27.

it will be yet. But Alex Salmond the great gradualist will have

:48:28.:48:31.

strengthened the power of autonomy of Scotland within the union and put

:48:32.:48:35.

Scotland on the map in the minds of the Westminster politicians. The

:48:36.:48:38.

union will never be the same again. What I wonder is, if then there will

:48:39.:48:44.

be a push, Alex Salmond had said that in fact it wouldn't be the

:48:45.:48:53.

Quebec, it would not be the never-endum. But if Parliament is

:48:54.:48:57.

working strongly, if there's a No vote tonight. Do you think there

:48:58.:49:01.

will be a temptation to go for another referendum? Certainly in due

:49:02.:49:05.

course, we remember 1979, the failed referendum in 1979 where Scotland

:49:06.:49:08.

couldn't muster much more than a third of the total electorate to

:49:09.:49:12.

vote for a very weak Parliament. With an decade what happened at

:49:13.:49:16.

Westminster had formed in Scotland a rock solid two to one consensus for

:49:17.:49:21.

a strongly devolved Parliament. The same mistake could happen this time

:49:22.:49:24.

by Westminster politicians. Also, and the fact that what has happened

:49:25.:49:30.

here, we look back at Laura's film is a huge SKEL racial. Thing we --

:49:31.:49:37.

acceleration, things we thought might take decades has taken a short

:49:38.:49:42.

time. Is it social media or other things? I think it's a whole variety

:49:43.:49:46.

of pressures F you look at the '60s and '70s there was a whole

:49:47.:49:51.

reassessment of Scotland's history. The understanding of the nation, a

:49:52.:49:56.

Parliament was there. Then you had Margaret Thatcher, alienating, not

:49:57.:50:02.

just politically but culturally she was a in a different place. That

:50:03.:50:06.

forced Scotland to get mature, OK if we are not that what are we, then

:50:07.:50:10.

we've had three decades. Has this building here, the fact of this

:50:11.:50:14.

building itself in a way encouraged a maturity? Absolutely, I think the

:50:15.:50:19.

Parliament and even just having a stage for the different political

:50:20.:50:22.

parties here in Scotland to play out Scottish politics in a Scottish

:50:23.:50:26.

context, not on a oning-on occasional role in Westminster has

:50:27.:50:33.

been crucial. It's created a Scottish demos, when I was in my

:50:34.:50:38.

20s, the political space where we thought about Scottish politics was

:50:39.:50:43.

emphatically British. Since this place was up and running, it

:50:44.:50:47.

established itself very quickly as the focus of public life in

:50:48.:50:52.

Scotland. That in itself is so hugely exciting. This has been such

:50:53.:50:56.

an extraordinary, exciting day. Thank you all very much indeed.

:50:57.:51:01.

The first regions to declare are expected around 1am. There are 32

:51:02.:51:05.

different counts in all. You can follow all the results on the BBC

:51:06.:51:11.

election programme with hue Edwards on BBC One. However, tonight on

:51:12.:51:16.

Newsnight we leave you with the images of the River Tweed that

:51:17.:51:21.

divides England from Scotland, 50 miles south from this capital. We'll

:51:22.:51:26.

know in a few hours from now whether this river will become an

:51:27.:51:29.

international border or not. From all of us here, good night.

:51:30.:52:13.

In Northern Ireland and Scotland we'll keep plenty of showers

:52:14.:52:15.

throughout the day.

:52:16.:52:18.

Kirsty Wark is in Edinburgh for the Scottish referendum and Katie Razzall reports from London.


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