18/09/2014 Newsnight

The Referendum is over, the polling stations are closed and the

ballot-boxes are locked. Now will it be independence or the union for

Scotland? Parliament of a country standing on

Parliament of a country standing on than 300 years?

ALEX SALMOND: I'm honoured to announce that we will hold

Scotland's Referendum, an historic day when the people will decide

Scotland's future. Delegates, it's game on for

Scotland. I assume the flag is saw tire, I

assume our capital will still be Edinburgh Burkes you still can't

tell us what currency we'll have. We love our land, we love our people,

we want freedom. If you don't like this government,

it won't last forever, but if you leave the United Kingdom, that will

be forever. This is everyone's flag, everyone's

country, everyone's culture. I think it's an extremely important day for

Scotland, probably the most important day of my life.

Good evening from Edinburgh. There has been no day like it in the

history of Scotland. This referendum has electrified the country and by

first light we should know where stands Scotland. Outside the

Scottish Parliament where we are with the Palace of Holyrood House

behind us, we're here almost two years after the referendum on

whether Scotland should become an independent country was announced

jointly by the First Minister of Scotland, Alex Salmond and the Prime

Minister, David Cameron. But it was in the last six weeks that the

campaign really caught fire and today from the island of aran to

Aberdeen, from Orkney to Dumfries, there were queues at polling

stations saltires, Union flags, Yes banners and badges saying no.

Tonight we'll be speaking to politicians, writers and business

people. But first our chief correspondent Cubans Cubans has been

sampling the atmosphere all day. She joins us from the count at Ingleston

show ground on the edge of Edinburgh. What have you been

hearing? Tense doesn't really begin to cover it. If you've ever imagined

what an election count for a whole country looks like, well this is it.

In this huge hall, and the counters here have an enormous job ahead of

them. I've been hearing something really not entirely unexpected but

rather extraordinary. I'm told that by about 7.00 this evening turn-out

had already hit about 75%. So these counters who are just now starting

to get down to work have a long night and a very, very big job ahead

of them. Apparently in some parts of the country turn-out was hitting

94%. The big question, of course, is which box did they put a cross in.

The polls have been extremely tight and some people though are willing

to make predictions. One of them is with us here tonight. Peter Kellner

from the polling company YouGov, you are courageous enough to put a

number on it this evening. Yes, our prediction tonight is that No has

won this referendum by 54% with Yes getting 46%. We've polled 1800

people today on-line after they voted, people we spoke to earlier

this week, so we can look at what happened to real people and there's

ban clear shift today, a small but clear shift from Yes to No. We also

think that the No voters in the end were slightly more determined to

turn-out than the Yes voters. Last night, Laura, I said there was an

80% chance of a No victory, now at the risk of looking utterly

ridiculous in eight hour's time, I would say it's a 99% chance of a No

victory. We appreciate you taking the risk of looking wrong by the

morning, but the polls in this particular event, can it be trusted

in the same way as others? Can they, with such huge turn-out and an

unprecedented question being asked? The unprecedented question does

cause difficulty because we can't find out what happened last time

because there isn't a last time. The turn-out helps us, as a pollster I'm

more nervous about predicting the results of low turn-out elections

like European elections because you're never quite sure who will

turn out at all. With a high turn-out election you're pretty sure

that anybody who says they're going to say yes or no will turn out. But

today we think the No voters, at the margin, that little bit more

determined to vote than the Yes voters. Thank you very much. Once

again, that prediction from YouGov tonight is 54%, 46 with the unionist

and No campaign in the lead. That gap is bigger that the polls have

said in the recent days. Speaking to people today, casting their ballots,

making sometimes those very last-minute decisions, it's been

striking how difficult some people have found it to make their minds

up, even at this late stage. The stakes really, forgive the cliche,

for a lot of people could not feel any higher. Out and about in the

streets of Scotland there was a tension you could almost taste.

They have chosen, but are yet to know. Which path their lives, their

country will take. Tonight they wait. He waits to know if he'll be

the first leader of a different country, a Scotland that breaks

away. Or a place that stays together, even if divided.

More voters came than ever before. But this flowering of democracy can

have an ugly face. You spend money or war but can't defend the

pensioners. So you turn your back on the world. Not the rest of the

world. You will mate. We've been a caring and sharing society. See

that, that's your referendum for me. How are you going to vote? I'm

voting yes. Why? Because inwant independence. Westminster have

robbed me of my vote. What do you think will happen? It could go

either way. I think Yes will get there. What will it mean to you if

it is a Yes? Torture. This is the start of something big, I think,

maybe for people to really get out there and make their voices heard.

Still undecided but the polling station is open. Still undecided.

Why haven't you? I don't know about all about what's happening. What are

you going to do? I don't know. I'll have a good think today. For some it

couldn't matter more, Paul worries in an independent Scotland he would

lose his job in Glasgow's ship yards. For me personally, yeah,

exactly, it's concerning what might mean for me, I might have move away,

go down south to work. It's really concerning, it might have a

significant impact on my own personal life. So you might move if

it's Yes? It might be the case that I have to move to get alternative

employment elsewhere. This is tense, it is a difficult, for a very simple

reason. People here have just never had to make a decision this big

before. But tonight he waits to know if his arguments for the union have

beaten back a clamour for change. Political organisation for

independence has stretched into new pockets of the country. So will

disillusion SEEP back in if their hopes are not met? Apprehensive, but

excited. Hoping for an independent result. Blame is already being cast.

Here workers race to paint over a polling station dobbed with

threatening graffiti. I'm saying I was accused of encouraging the

graffiti on this hall which is a load of tripe. Predictions have

though nearly always put the unionists

though nearly always put the Edinburgh, the Yes campaign have

worked their own intricate numbers. What they claim, the biggest ever

operation in Scotland to get the vote out. If those efforts don't

work though, activist Fran Gilhooley will be nothing less than broken

hearted? I will be utterly, utterly gutted. It's everything we do. It's

everything we are. You say it's everything to you. Right now,

technically we are a sovereign state because now we have the decision

now, right now. Are we going to keep it? Or are we going to hand it back?

Because now we've actually got it, for this day. And this evening,

excitement, yes, anxiety too. After more than 800 days of argument, this

country knows good and bad things can come to those who wait.

We'll be hearing from Laura later in the programme. But I'm joined by the

Scottish businessman Jim McColl, Catherine MacLeod who used to advise

Alastair Darling and the journalist John Harris. First of all, Jim

McColl, you really backed the Yes campaign, you sent out more than

half a million letters, that poll was only one poll, but it would be

presumably incredibly disappointing for you? Yes, it would be. I think

it's early in the evening and it's very brave to make a prediction like

that. When you look at what Laura was saying about turn-out in some

areas of 94%, how has it felt to you in the country? Real excitement and

expectation and hope. It's a kind of carnival atmosphere. People are

excited about it. Do you think it has galvanised people to think about

politics the way they haven't done before? Absolutely, you hear the

numbers on the turn-out. It's galvanised the population. I tell

you who did galvanise the population, Katlehong RIN, that was

the Yes campaign -- Catherine, that was the Yes campaign, you have to

take your hat off to them, they absolutely came from behind and made

the weather. I don't know if they made the weather, they certainly

came from way behind although I think it was expected that the polls

would always tighten. It was visible. I agree with Jim, it was an

exhilarating and exciting campaign. I was in Glasgow yesterday and there

were kids on the school talking about it on the street. My nephew in

Inverness, there was excitement between him and his pals to vote

today. That suggests there was a great deal of excitement and the

accusation levelled at the Better Together Campaign run by your

ex-boss was that it was consistently negative and that really played

badly during the campaign? Well, consistently negative. I think in

Scotland at the moment asking awkward questions, I think Alistair

ended the campaign asking the same questions he asked at the beginning

and what he would say is that he still didn't get an answer. If it is

negative to say what is our currency, are we going to be a

member of the European Union or NATO or what is going to happen? Perhaps

that's then it was negative. But perhaps it might be how do you make

no a positive? If Alistair had got sensible answers he might have

changed questions. And Alistair's old boss Gordon Brown had to ride to

the rescue at the end. How did that feel. We're hearing suggestions that

Gordon Brown was put up to lead the Better Together campaign but David

Cameron vetoed that? I have absolutely no idea. You're closer to

these people than me. I've never heard that. I always intended Gordon

to enter the campaign, his style is different from the other. I don't

think he did ride to the rescue, the pair played the roles they were

expect today play. I'll come to you John Harris, but we're going to

speak to the chair of the Yes campaign, Denis Canavan. First of

all, you probably heard on the basis of that one YouGov poll, Peter

Kellner saying that actually it looks like 54 versus 46 that it will

be a No victory. Can I have your reaction to that early poll, nothing

definite about it, of course? That one poll does not tally with the

reports that we're getting back from our campaign workers. We have fought

a very, very successful grass-roots community-based campaign with

thousands of trained campaign workers stretching all the way from

the northern isles to the Borders of Scotland. I think at this stage I

would rather take the feedback from them, albeit anecdotal rather than

just one particular opinion poll. We'll see once the ballot-boxes

opened and the votes are counted. I am still optimistic about a good

result. But if that vote turns out to be true, and in fact in any way

Better Together has got over the line, what is Alex Salmond going to

say to the people of Scotland tomorrow? Well, that will be up to

Alex Salmond obviously. I'm not a spokesperson for Alex Salmond. I

have always said that as chair of the advisory board of the Yes

Scotland campaign we're a broad, inclusive campaign consisting of

representatives of various parties. If you're asking me what I would say

in that event, I would say whatever the result I think the people of

Scotland ought to work together to build a better Scotland, a more

prosperous Scotland and a fairer Scotland. Thank you very much.

Coming back to you, John Harris. Who are the victors in all this, are

they people rather than Westminster? Yes, in a sense that people have

either become acquainted for the first time, or reacquainted with

thinking about politics and the tremendously profound way, whether

Yes or No. I'm sort of an instinctively a greater fan of the

Yes campaign. In the last weeks, you're saying, down the street, I

would speak to waiters, bus drivers, there's a natural conversation about

it, not forced. It's extraordinary. It's turned round that politics

becomes part of everybody's discourse. Yes, when it slips out of

the way that Westminster politics has tended to do, which is all

couched into meaningless phrases about hard working families and a

future fair for all and when it becomes about the fundamentals.

These are the things we're told in England will alienate people,

talking about good society and stuff like that. But what you find is that

that's what gets people talking. Except that it may be that the

appeal to people's pockets and the scare factor of what might happen to

business might have played well. I know you were critical of that but

actually it matters to people. People were told by business, by

Standard Life by RBS that actually there was going to be a scare, that

businesses would fold, they would take their headquarters out of

Scotland. What do you make of that? I think there was a lot of

scaremongering going on, around the pound to start with, where Cameron

clearly identified three conditions needed, and what we got from the

other side was we're not going to negotiate. That's scaremongering.

But at the end of the day, if you have got a big business community

which puts its force behind Better Together, then they're the ones that

are going to be, push the point across. It was a sample of big

businesses. You have to remember that in the UK and in Scotland in

particular most businesses are Sme,s small and immediate sized

enterprises. We saw a few leaders of some of the big businesses

strongarmed by Downing Street to go out after the Yes campaign showed a

lead last weekend. Catherine MacLeod, that whole idea of pulling

business in and making - do you think it actually would have made

any difference indeed whether tomorrow morning we get an

independence vote or not to business in Scotland? They said it did. It's

to the for me to say that it did or it didn't. I think it was back to

the, they probably were strongarmed out. It was better that they were

strongarmed out to say what they had to say than saying nothing. But it's

actually a facet of Westminster politics that people hate. If people

like ASDA and Marks and Spencers and John Lewis say prices will go up and

RBS. After being told by David Cameron. Whether after seeing David

Cameron or not. It explains quite a shift in the polls towards the end.

It explains - I think the Yes vote was always going to harden quickly

and when people saw the risk they were prepared to say no. It's not

the greatest shame of the No campaign. Business would inevitably

say those things, the greatest shame to me was that is it struck me that

progressive politics in Scotland in the form of the Labour Party, A,

seems to be organisationally broken and seems to have lost the ability

to occupy the praise optimist. 30% of VOEFRTS voters endered the idea

of saying yesterday. -- entertained the idea of saying yes. When David

Cameron vetoed Alex Salmond's plans to put the option of Devo Max on the

ballot-paper. He promised there would be new powers for Scotland but

they would only be revealed in the event of a No vote today. But as the

opinion polls tightened, the No campaign panicked and that resolve

flew out of the window. On Monday Cameron, Clegg and Darling promised

Scotland lots of presence. Extra revenue raising powers, keeping the

Barnett form a and more freedom to spend on the NHS but that went down

badly just about everywhere else in the UK. So as our Political Editor,

Allegra Stratton reports, whether we wake up to an independent Scotland

tomorrow or not, the reality is that a huge political storm is about to

blow up. It's 6.00 on Friday 19th September.

This is Today with Justin Webb and Jim - the headline this morning,

Scotland has voted for independence, bringing to an end a 300-year-old

political union. Alex Salmond declared a new dawn had broken over

a free and fair Scotland... A whirlwind is tearing through

Westminster. The articles of union were signed three centuries ago here

on the site of the Palace of Whitehall, but now, at dawn, the

last Prime Minister of the United Kingdom rings Alex Salmond to

acknowledge they're deFURNG. -- defunct. David Cameron makes a

statement and calls an emergency Cabinet while liaising with the Bank

of England to steady the markets. Parliament is recalled on Saturday,

the first time since the Falklands, this time it's more serious. Many

people in the Conservative Party and many people on the back benches

think this would be a tragedy and consequently those people will

believe as I do that -- the Prime Minister needs to consider his

situation considerably. David Cameron will face calls for a motion

of No confidence that could trigger an early election. He might embrace

this and go to the British people on a platform of who powers he would

separate Scotland. But there are people in his own party who think he

might have to resign itself. And a caretaker Prime Minister could be

within a matter of weeks much then there are others and this faction

even includes his fiercest critics who think David Cameron should stick

around and sort out a mess of his own making. Undoubtedly David

Cameron will have a lot of pressure against him. The man who lost

Scotland will be the jibe used. But it's very difficult to think of an

immediate alternative. We're into such unforeseen circumstances. Such

unstable; the Tory MPs are very angry both what will have led to a

possible Yes and also what's been said over the last TEB days. It's a

very, very -- ten days, it's a very, very unstable situation. Scottish

secretary Alistair Carmichael said he would resign government to join

Alex Salmond's 18-month negotiating team. Ministers like Danny Alexander

would be under pressure to force suit. There would be immediate

demands to limit voting rights of Scottish MPs, bad for Labour and the

Lib Dems ahead of the election. At the Cabinet meeting last week

Newsnight understands that the Chancellor said to the assembled

Cabinet ministers any contingency planning going on in their

departments should be stopped immediately, no E-mails, no nothing.

Of course, conversations might be going on off line, but nonetheless,

it's fair to say that the machinery of government does not feel

particularly ready for Scottish independence. Many in Westminster

talk about the ramifications of Scotland going it alone, taking some

20 to 30 years to be fully understood.

It's 6.00 on Friday 19th September, good morning, this is Today with

Justin Webb. The headline this morning: Scotland has voted to

remain part of the United Kingdom. In his concession speech, Alex

Salmond challenged Westminster to deliver on its promise of home rule

for Scotland. The bleary eyed of Downing Street exhale, no

territorial carvup of the UK will happen on their watch. Alex Salmond

greets the dawn with talk of more referendums, but at 7am David

Cameron makes a statement. He's got problems nonetheless. I believe

Parliament needs to be recalled as a matter of urgency, I think it must

be recalled on Monday. In order that Parliament meets and discusses these

issues before the conference and at least sends out a very strong signal

that it now believes that the English voice needs to be heard.

Conservative politicians are furious that it is Gordon Brown, the man

they ousted from Downing Street four years ago who is now writing the

powers that will be handed over from Westminster to Holyrood. In the next

few weeks the three parties have to come to some agreement about what

powers they will actually hand over to Scotland. Gordon Brown's

timetable sees proposals put forward by November and at the end of

January there will be concrete measures. Some Cabinet ministers are

already saying it's not possible to see how they can meet that

timetable. To stem Tory fury there's

speculation David Cameron will, on Friday, announce measures to protect

English MPs. Labour will fiercely resist anything that makes Scottish

MPs second-class. But even Ed Miliband's own former aid believes

change is needed -- aide. First, you have to have a Constitutional

Convention in England. Secondly we are going to have change in

Westminster. It's clear that the more powers go to the Scottish

Parliament the less you can have Scottish MPs voting on the same

issues for England. That's got to change in one way or another.

Thirdly, though, England is much too centralised, so this isn't just

about reducing the influence of Scottish MPs in Westminster, it's

about getting English decisions out of Westminster. Up and away out of

Westminster indeed. Tomorrow whatever happens much power will

begin to be moved from London and another chapter begins for the

mother of all parliaments. Parliaments. Joining us from

Westminster is the former Conservative Defence Minister Liam

Fox. Good evening. This is a hornet's nest. Do you

think that David Cameron worked out his strategy the best he could from

the beginning? I think whether we think it was a good strategy will

rather depend on what the result is. Having spent the day up in Glasgow

today I wouldn't be surprised if we got a result of about 55-45. I think

there are a number of things we need to do right away. The first is that

there will be a lot of healing to be done. There's potentially a lot of

bitterness and recrimination. That needs to be handle. That is the

first thing. The second thing is to understand the wider issues we have

to face. I think there are three, and probably in order of difficulty

the easiest first is the sort of policy areas that we might want to

have extended devolution in. What is going to be reserved at Westminster

and what are these new powers going to be. Let me ask you, Liam Fox,

should Devo Max have been on the paper? Would that have obviated all

this? Again, it would be depending what it means. What we now need to

see is what actually the details are, what are the extra policy areas

where devolution might come into and what are the tax varying powers that

might be proposed. We need to see the details and really tonight of

all nights we have to avoid knee jerk reactions on that. The second

area we need to look at is now unavoidable, which is the English

question. And the West Lothian question and what now do we do about

an imbalance in our constitutional relationship. There are a number of

ways we can address that but I think now it will have to be addressed and

politicians have ducked the question for too long. The third, but most

difficult issue, I think will relate to the financial settlement. And

exactly how we see that across the United Kingdom. I've thought for a

long time that we needed to look at deprivation indices across the

country a little more closely when allocating funding and we have a

strong incentive to do that. But do you think that in all this there

should be an English Parliament? That is where we're heading if there

is a No vote. I'm not in favour of a separate English Parliament because

I think that with parish councils, town councils, district councils,

county councils, Westminster, the last thing we require is another

level of government; but I do think effectively what we must ensure is

that Scottish MPs who cannot vote on issues like health and education in

Scotland, should not be entitled to vote on health and education in

constituencies like mine in north Somerset. It is profoundly

undemocratic and unfair. It needs to be dealt with. Do you think the way

all this came about essentially was that, you could put it this way,

David Cameron was bounced into all this by a failed politician in

Gordon Brown, a failed leader and actually it would have been better

if this had been an initiative fought out rather than one that

seems designed to annoy English Conservative backbenchers, not just

Conservative backbenchers. It will not just be Conservative

backbenchers, you're quite right. I think a lot of the problems came

from the very imbalanced constitutional settlement that came

with devolution under Tony Blair and Gordon Brown in the first place. The

whole question of what happens about governance in England has never

properly been addressed. It now does need to be addressed. We are going

to get, almost certainly I think tonight, a No vote. Scotland will

remain in the union, we therefore have to decide what the new balance

inside this union is going to be going forward that gives us the best

chance to maintain stability and to diminish some of those divisions

that have very sadly emerged in the last few weeks. Liam Fox, thank you

very much indeed. Now we're joined by the Times

columnist and Conservative peer Danny Finkelstein. Turning to you,

Danny Finkelstein, I think we feel in need of what you can give us by

way of that incisive analytical brain and from the position of being

a Lord of the realm. What do you think has been going on more broadly

today, this churn, this change, it may be happening in Scotland but

actually the ramifications are for the whole of the United Kingdom no

matter what? I think there's going to be quite a serious, as everyone

has been saying, sharp English question that comes up tomorrow. I'm

slightly puzzled by the suggestion that Gordon Brown forced the Devo

Max on to the agenda because actually, the Conservative party had

a report that's taken a year to prepare that came out at the end of

May on the question of what powers might be devolved. But the two

issues on which I think the campaign was bounced and did panic were the

time line and the question of the Barnett formula, in other words the

question of the Scottish financial settlement. Those two things are

going to cause big political trouble. They're going to cause

trouble in Parliament because of trying to assemble a Coalition in

the Conservative Party that might support the Prime Minister on the

Barnett formula and trying to have a Coalition with the Liberal Democrats

on the question of what you do for English MPs. Actually, far from it

being the case that at the last minute Scotland has been promised a

lot of powers, what's really happened is that Scotland has been

promised and accelerated timetable that I think will be difficult to

deliver. Difficult to deliver, but let's stick with the idea of the

Barnett formula because that was something that was desperately

needed to be changed as far as the Conservatives were concerned and

it's stuck. And it's the one thing that will cause a lot of anger in

the rest of the country and it will mean MPs from all parties will dig

their heels in? The Barnett formula is a short hand. There are two

elements, the Barnett formula itself about how you allocate increases in

spending and that's population based and the Barnett formula may need

some adjustment but isn't the problem. The basic problem is that

of the settlement underneath the Barnett formula in other words

Scotland's financial settlement. The Barnett formula therefore being a

short hand, what has been promised in the vow isn't actually what

everyone is angry about. What everyone is angry about is that

Scotland starts with a bigger financial settlement. So, actually,

it is possible to revisit that. You just heard Liam Fox talk about

revisiting the way that you allocate spending across the whole of

government in which Scotland may gain in some areas and lose in

others without touching the Barnett formula. Do you think now there's

going to be a bigger adjustment, that actually what's going to happen

eventually if he fact tow is a move towards a federalism? Everyone said

about English votes for English laws which is something I was involved in

when I worked for the Conservative Party in developing. Everyone said

the way of dealing with that is never to ask the West Lothian

question, and what happened in this campaign is that that idea, which

Tony Blair clung to, has become untenable. It is absolutely

inevitable that there will now be a move towards some sorted of English

votes for English laws in one form or another. But it will be very

problematic for Labour and, therefore, they will resist it and

of course the Conservatives don't have a majority in Parliament.

That's what makes the time line difficult. Will they be able to, as

they suggested, to actually agree the deal behind the vow between

them? I think there are lots of ways in which they might not be able to.

I think we're starting a period of great uncertainty, actually. Thank

you very much. The BBC's Allan Little has been

following the campaigns every step of the way, and he has rushed from

the main count to be with us now. You have covered everything. Bosnia

to Rwanda, been all over the world. You're back home now and covered

this campaign. We're going to see some pictures in a minute or two of

what's happened this evening. What's the last, particularly the last six

weeks felt like to you? There's been a lot of talk and quite rightly

about the atmosphere of menace and intimidation that has sometimes

infused this campaign. Atmosphere, relatively few actually incidents.

Nobody has been punched in the face. Our Deputy Prime Minister punched a

voter in the face in a recent general election, it hasn't here.

No, but we heard about intimidation, we tried to get guests on the show.

People have been concerned particularly women. There has been

some? Yes there has been some but my overwhelming opinion is that this

extraordinary national debate has been conducted with civility and

mutual respect. You and I both know that most families in Scotland have

Yes and No voters within them. People living next door to each

other. They disagree with civility and politeness for the most part.

This progress has happened in an old and entrenched democracy, this

wouldn't have been settled -- Look at this now. What is amazing,

everyone is still out on the streets. They're not saying we voted

now. You can hear them behind us in Holyrood. Here they are in George

Square. The place is full of revellers, it's as if there's, to me

there's a reinvigoration of the national debate in the sense that -

I'm hearing conversations all the time, unself conscious conversations

where people before would say it's not for me, it's for everybody. It

is, on both sides. Remarkably empowering and engauging. The Yes

campaign started this. They gave up on the conventional media early on

and they got very active on social media, started producing their own

journalism, their own ways of communicating with each other. I

think the difference between the No campaign and the Yes campaign, is

that the No campaign has been relatively speaking quite a

conventional campaign, passionate of course in defence of the union,

people speaking very passionately about that, but the Yes campaign,

people have been persuaded to vote Yes, they've been persuaded by

people they respect in their own lives and not by people they see on

television. That I think has ban very important difference, something

quite democratising has been happening. Particularly, not SCLU

civil but particularly on the Yes -- exclusively but particularly on the

Yes side of the arguments. It's 100 years since the first Scottish Home

Rule Bill passed its second vote at Westminster only to be kyboshed by

the assassination of Archduke Franz Ferdinand. After that home rule

stuttered on and off the agenda until the SNP first showed some

muscle in the 1967 #0S. But then it was never a match for the dyed in

the wool tribal Labour vote that seemed to be as strong as the Forth

Rail Bridge. So how did the SNP pull the feet from under the Labour

establishment to transform from a protest movement to a party that has

brought this country to the brink much independence? Here's Laura

again. A song, a dream of a new country for

SNP stalwarts, a long time coming, she can hardly believe her eyes.

Today is unbelievable. From when we started in 1974, people thought we

were dreaming. But our dream is coming true. What was a fringe party

fills Inverness' streets, unionists can only look on. I hate to see

songs being used as a political weapon, to be honest. How did it get

to this. Supporters of independence so emboldened they can take on

British Cabinet ministers in the street. You're not at Westminster

now, you're standing here as someone who's... And your BBC cronies. They

won't tell the truth. The charge, the excitement of Scottish

Nationalist politics is new, the power built haltingly in cities,

small villages and towns over decades. Few single issue or small

parties ever make it from relative object security to the mainstream.

And when Alex Salmond was first elected here nearly 20 years ago

much beyond local success didn't seem impossible, but the SNP's

long-term dream was very far away. For some local members, it even

began with ridicule. I can remember my father served his time in the

ship yards on Clyde and then he worked in the torpedo fact tree in

Alexandria. I remember him coming home and flinging his Labour Party

rosette down and said "son, they're not for us". He went out and helped

form a branch of the SNP. I joined and I took part in that. I'm

reminded at that time of the quote by Gandhi, "first they ignore you,

then they laugh at you, then they fight you and then you win". The

first solid victory was Winnie ewing. In 1967. On the stump her son

told us what she said still goes. She is one of the very few people

who tells Alex Salmond who to do. Scotland's oil is now worth a

minimum of ?155 million, what are we Scots going to get from it without

self-government. Ewing's election, then the oil bounty grew interest in

home rule. It's her oil so why are many in sub standard houses. Other

MPs followed. A huge Labour majority overturned. In 1979 a majority of

Scots who voted chose devolution but too few turned out to make it

happen. Despite defeat and through squabbles

in the '80s, a more organised and determined party emerged under this

man. It's a government of occupation we face in Scotland just as surely

as if they had an army at their backs. Alex created a modern

political party that could take on the parties of the British state and

beat them. In terms of discipline, in terms of their imagination and

how they campaigned, in their ability to start researching and

start he had KAGT people. But -- educating people. But it was

Labour's decision to create the Scottish Parliament which allowed

the SNP to get serious. When Scottish voters eventually got their

Parliament there were questions about whether the SNP would still be

relevant. Instead, devolution gave them a bigger platform. The

outsiders turned insiders. The SNP surge in 2011 meant for the first

time a vote ongoing it alone was real. And with it so close now, even

if there's defeat this week, can the demand fade? A vote against Yes this

time they might think it's all over, not going to happen that way.

Many Scots share none of this jubilation, but the question first

asked by a handful of activists so long ago will this week be answered

on every street in the country. Here with us in our studio

overlooking the Scottish Parliament building are the writer AL Kennedy

and the Spectator Magazine's writer and blog Alex Massie. On that point

where Labour offered limited devolution they thought they would

shoot the SNP's fox and they did nothing of the sort. No because the

SNP managed to present itself as the patriotic body, the will of the

Scottish people if you like, it's done so by being different types of

organisation in different parts of the country look at some of its

strong holds it has supplanted the Conservatives but also subsequently

made great inroads in Dundee and parts of the central belt. At the

expense of Labour. Because it has managed to say that it is standing

up for Scotland's interests against both Labour and the Conservatives.

How much has that been the political acumen of Alex Salmond that who for

a long time has outwitted the main political parties? It's difficult to

imagine that the SNP could have come so far without Alex Salmond, he's

been the dominant figure for 30 years now. But I think there are

other forces at work that have contributed to the SNP's rise and it

would have back prominent force in Scottish politics even without Alex

Salmond. Alison, you don't live in Scotland any more but you come and

go and I know you're a Yes supporter. How does this look like

to the rest of the UK. When you talk to people elsewhere what do they

think of it? Lots of people find it exciting. It's such an unfamiliar

experience for the media, so they're on the back foot. It was a surprise

in many ways to lots of the politicians and there's been even

more of a clear mismatch between an educated, sophisticated electorate

who are good at voting tactically, who have been looking into the facts

and who have a tradition of self-education in this country. And

they've been ahead of the media and ahead of the politicians. And some

of the media's spin on what the politicians have been saying, on

both sides, it's been as depressing and as evoking of apathy and low

turn-outs and all the things the politicians blame the electorate

for. But down south the idea of change and the idea of general, now,

a genuine democracy breaking up, people queuing to register to vote.

97% of the available electorate registering. And around 90%

turn-out. We're seeing now some of the latest pictures coming in from

around the country. We can see there out at Holyrood lots and lots of

people with banners, people dancing and people generally feeling the

mood. Absolutely. These are the apathetic young people and voters!

That's another thing we haven't talked about. The energising of that

16 and 17-year-olds, it's a one-off in this debate. I wonder how young

people will feel when it's removed from them in the future. How do you

think that's changed the debate? TFRNLGTS remains to be seen. Early

polls suggested 16 and 17-year-olds would vote against independence. I

think that moved in the course of the debate. The Yes campaign

resembled a carnival for a lot of this. Something quite profound has

happened here. Whatever way this turns out tonight, half the

population of one of the kingdoms of the union has repudiated the

English-Scottish union. There is a crisis of legitimates here, there is

a crisis of popular and democratic legitimacy. If the Westminster

establishment, the three Westminster parties think they can F they win

this tonight, they can go back to Westminster and thinking job done,

union saved, then they'll lose. And the Herald's Political Editor saying

it may be 100% turn-out in some areas. Reports across the country

showing the turn-out has exceeded even the most optimistic

expectations which is quite something. But it's not surprising

given the order of magnitude, the importance of the day. Yes, but the

genie is out of the bottle now, I wonder what you feel about that. If

Peter Kellner is right and it is a quite clear, decisive No vote, what

happens to the national psyche? Will people think things have changed and

have a positive attitude or will there be an almost depression set

in? All kinds of things have been - however it goes the idea of defining

nationality by "you live here so you can vote "I hate that I can't vote.

nationality by "you live here so you I don't live here so I don't have a

vote. I was having - There were bizarre things, people

vote. I was having - There were here for Lee weeks had a vote. There

were strange things happening? Yes, but it was so beautiful,

particularly at this time in Europe where nationalism have other faces,

to say if you live here, you're one of us. It's an important thing to

say. I wonder also looking at the way Gordon Brown rode in at the end

and actually, he looked like he was in his element and he hasn't looked

like that for many years. It was as if he found a cause again. I wonder

how Alastair Darling is feeling about that, but I wonder what you

think about that, that Brown found his voice again. He suddenly did. It

was like seeing a 20th century Gordon Brown rather than a 21st

century Gordon Brown. There was also the intention that Labour need today

bring it's so-called big guns into the campaign even at the latest of

late stages. This has still been a very bad campaign for Labour. It's

been a good campaign for Scotland but a bad few months for the Labour

Party north and south of the border. Hold that a minute. We're going to

keep Alan and Alison and if Westminster came late to the

referendum the world is now here too with broadcasters from every

conceivable country, and the Kurds and the Catalans. We sent Duncan out

to get a flavour of the atmosphere. Can I ask what country you're from?

Denmark. How much attention is Denmark giving? Enormous, we're

broadcasting all the time and have been for over a week. We're

completely obsessed with this story. Why are you in Scotland? We are here

because we're an Austrian minority in Italy, we are here to support our

friends. We're from Barcelona. Here's the

thing, a lot of Catalans have come, not only to broadcast but many

tourist to see how things are going here.

Can I ask where you're from? From Taiwan China, another country, I'm

glad to have a discussion with people from Catalonia. And we're

going live to Sao Paulo. Yes. We're joined now by Professor Ewen

Cameron, Professor Of Scottish history and he joins Alison Kennedy

and Allan Little. I wonder, you're a man who has studied the union, WHOU

do you think after tonight F this poll is correct, how different will

the -- if this poll is correct, how different will the union look? It

will look very different regardless of the result. If there's a No vote

I think we're almost certainly likely to see more powers to the

Scottish Parliament. That will change the balance of power within

the union because if the Parliament over there gets more power over

taxation and spending then it really does fundamentally alter the game.

Looking at the discourse and how this has all been conducted, do you

think this re-energised political debate, not within Parliament or

Westminster, but out here, people shouting and singing, do you think

they'll keep that involvement up? I hope so. We've had other moments in

the Scottish history, in the 1880s or 1920s when we've had this sudden

burst of energy into Scottish politics. In some subsequent periods

it's been lost. I think this has to be carefully nurtured by the

politicians on all sides so we do capture some of this enthusiasm for

a slightly longer period. Alan, we were talking earlier about Alex

Salmond, win or lose, has this been Alex Salmond's finest hour? I think

he's won whatever happens. Alex Salmond has always been a

gradualist, he wanted the third option, enhanced devolution. What is

being offered by the three Westminster parties is not Devo Max,

it's some kind of enhanced devolution that we don't know what

it will be yet. But Alex Salmond the great gradualist will have

strengthened the power of autonomy of Scotland within the union and put

Scotland on the map in the minds of the Westminster politicians. The

union will never be the same again. What I wonder is, if then there will

be a push, Alex Salmond had said that in fact it wouldn't be the

Quebec, it would not be the never-endum. But if Parliament is

working strongly, if there's a No vote tonight. Do you think there

will be a temptation to go for another referendum? Certainly in due

course, we remember 1979, the failed referendum in 1979 where Scotland

couldn't muster much more than a third of the total electorate to

vote for a very weak Parliament. With an decade what happened at

Westminster had formed in Scotland a rock solid two to one consensus for

a strongly devolved Parliament. The same mistake could happen this time

by Westminster politicians. Also, and the fact that what has happened

here, we look back at Laura's film is a huge SKEL racial. Thing we --

acceleration, things we thought might take decades has taken a short

time. Is it social media or other things? I think it's a whole variety

of pressures F you look at the '60s and '70s there was a whole

reassessment of Scotland's history. The understanding of the nation, a

Parliament was there. Then you had Margaret Thatcher, alienating, not

just politically but culturally she was a in a different place. That

forced Scotland to get mature, OK if we are not that what are we, then

we've had three decades. Has this building here, the fact of this

building itself in a way encouraged a maturity? Absolutely, I think the

Parliament and even just having a stage for the different political

parties here in Scotland to play out Scottish politics in a Scottish

context, not on a oning-on occasional role in Westminster has

been crucial. It's created a Scottish demos, when I was in my

20s, the political space where we thought about Scottish politics was

emphatically British. Since this place was up and running, it

established itself very quickly as the focus of public life in

Scotland. That in itself is so hugely exciting. This has been such

an extraordinary, exciting day. Thank you all very much indeed.

The first regions to declare are expected around 1am. There are 32

different counts in all. You can follow all the results on the BBC

election programme with hue Edwards on BBC One. However, tonight on

Newsnight we leave you with the images of the River Tweed that

divides England from Scotland, 50 miles south from this capital. We'll

know in a few hours from now whether this river will become an

international border or not. From all of us here, good night.

In Northern Ireland and Scotland we'll keep plenty of showers

throughout the day.