29/10/2015 Newsnight

Forced sterilisation, fines and abortion - the world's

longest and most brutal birth control experiment comes to an end.

What has been the consequence of China's one child policy?

And what do our aging populations mean for the world economy?

Finding Azam - the young Syrian boy who

Belgrade vanished. He had a broken jaw and he disappeared. -- we found

this boy in Belgrade and he vanished. Can you? It is in Arabic.

Can you help me look for him? British universities always used to

be about free speech, So why have our campuses become

so quick to censor? We ask the Leeds University Union

affairs officer Good evening. China's one child

policy is estimated to have Put like that,

you start to get a sense of the effect it has had on the country

over the last three decades. Two generations with no cousins,

no aunts no uncles, China,

which once strove to control the - is now trying to do precisely

the opposite, and make it grow. Meets three products of China's one

child policy. When I was a child, sometimes I felt a bit lonely. I am

happy with my family because they only have one child. They took care

of me well. I would prefer to have an older brother or a younger

sister. Sometimes in my childhood, I felt lonely. Peking has decreed a

simple but drastic remedy. Every couple should have only one child.

That policy had serious consequences. Not least because

people often felt incentivised to make sure that they are one child

was a boy. With one child, you get considerable privileges. When people

can only have one child, and this is true around the world, not just

China, and they have the technology to choose between having a boy or a

girl, through scanning and other technology, and aborting foetuses is

legal, as it is in China, and the incentives to another point or

greater, status and income, the prospects are greater for boys. When

the policy was first introduced, China was very poor. The country's

leadership feared that they would be ruined by overpopulation. 35 years

later, a lot has changed. After an economic boom, there is a new fear

that there are not enough young people and China will become old

before it becomes rich. This is what democracy is called China's

population pyramid in 1980. As the one child rule came into force. It

shows the percentage of the population at various ages. 35 years

ago, China had lots of young people, too many for the authorities. Fast

forward to now and there are fewer children and the pyramid bulges in

the middle. The fear is that as they retire, there will not be enough

workers to support them. At first, the policy was strictly enforced but

it has been relaxed as the policy was strictly enforced but

changed. Before today, the policy was strictly enforced but

many exemptions it only covered around one in three people. At the

beginning it was very significant. Most people lived in the

and demographic growth was higher. Economic incentives to

and demographic growth was higher. fertility were not there.

and demographic growth was higher. effect has been decreasing over time

and there has been more exemptions. That has been one factor. As women

have got educated, as the cost of living in urban areas has gone up, a

small apartment costing a living in urban areas has gone up, a

money, Skilling costs going up, the incentives have gone down. China's

neighbours have lower fertility rates. China is publicly grappling

with the economic fallout of demographic change. Less publicly,

so is the wider world. This graph shows the percentage of the global

population of working age. Starting in the 1970s, it rose sharply as the

baby boomers entered the workforce and declining fertility rates meant

fewer children. For decades, there were more workers and fewer

dependents. But now people live longer and the working age share it

looks to have peaked. It has started to fall globally. And the World Bank

think that fall will last for decades. Demographic changes mean

more workers and the end of the Cold War turbo-charged this trend. For

four decades, the supply of workers has been plentiful. Economists have

spoken about a global glut of labour. One consequence of that has

been a multi decade slowdown in the rate of wage growth. But if the

demographics have turned, and oversupply is coming to an end, then

existing workers should have more bargaining power. We might expect

wage growth to pick up. But how do we pay for longer retirement with

fewer workers? Demographics are hard to shift. How do you stop second

babies being born? China's Communist party changed the world once and now

it has done it again. But even it cannot order a baby boomer. What

chance it gets its way? I would like to have more than one child. Two or

three is most suitable. I would prefer to have to. A girl and a boy.

I have not put too much thought into the question. I would prefer two, a

boy and a girl. That is my expectation. Duncan Weldon with that

report. With us now George Magnus,

who has written a book on this subject, and joins us

from Canada and anthropologist Anni Kajanus, who's lived in China

and studied the cultural impact Thank you for coming in. Starting

with you, Anni, will this radically change what's China looks like in

the future? I don't think so. I think where this policy change is

going to have the biggest impact is in urban areas. Where it has been

more strictly monitored, the policy. I not think that it will result in a

significant demographic change although it may result in a

short-term baby boomer. What has been the main cultural impact of the

last few decades? Out of China, we have heard the horror stories of

forced sterilisation, abortion, the gender imbalance. Is that true on

the ground? Is that what has been happening? To some extent, yes.

Especially in the underdeveloped areas, the policy has met resistance

because parents rely on their sons primarily to take care of them in

old age. And so there is a strong preference for sons, and there has

been. In some rural areas, the policy has been strictly unfermented

but in most of the areas, people are able to have three children, at

least one son. In urban areas, where the single child is the norm, it has

had a huge impact on the Chinese family. And on women's position, and

the position of doctors in Chinese families. There has been a drastic

increase on families investing in their daughters' futures. Sons and

daughters, they grow up with family support. And pressure! This is like

at gigantic experiment, the like of which the world has never seen. This

is uncharted territory in terms of what happens next. It is. It has

certainly been an experiment. The only one that we are aware of where

the state has actually interfered in the reproductive habits of its

citizens. Although to be fair, for the last three or four years, things

have been relaxed gradually. But even the relaxation of the one child

policy, until today, or until the formal abandonment, it has not been

effective. Two years ago, China was relaxing the policy so that if you

were, as a parent, the product of a 1 child family, you were allowed to

have two children and they expected 11 million households would be

eligible to take advantage of this relaxation. Of these 11 million

households, they thought that 2 million might apply to have a second

child but barely half actually did. And as far as we can tell, not even

that many actually have done. So the issue about controlling the

population through this policy was not a particularly good policy and

it did not really work. Abandoning it will not have much of fact, I

agree with your other guest. So what happens? What happens in terms of

the problem they have got with the ageing population. Not unlike many

of its neighbours and countries in Europe, but if this does not work,

what happens? Well, China has exactly the same problem in managing

this issue as we did in the United Kingdom and in the West. They have

to develop coping mechanisms, we all do, to deal with the labour supply

problem. This is unique in human history. We have this combination of

weak fertility, low fertility, and very long increases in life

expectancies. That is squeezing the working age population. So how do

you deal with that? Immigration is one way to deal with it but the

Chinese do not have much immigration. You can have laws that

make it more possible for women and older workers to work for longer,

and raise the retirement age. Or maybe you start paying people to

have bigger families? I wonder, Anni, turning to those two points,

immigration, we have not seen China turn to immigration in a big way.

Could that starts to happen now? And secondly, the propaganda involved in

telling people that they were better off, doing more for China, for the

motherland, by having one child. How do you reverse that mindset? I don't

think it will be reversible. This process in China happened in a very

radical way but this is basically a demographic transition that has

happened in other countries also. Once the standard of living rises

and women's educational level rises, people tend to have fewer

children. This will not change. In urban families, the current young

parents are already the generation who were an only child. So they have

had this support from their families, and also the pressure. In

my experience, in my research, I find that parents want to go easy on

the child, but to put so much pressure on the child. To just have

one child, or a maximum of two. They want to be able to really support

the child. George Magnus, do you think that it will turn to

immigration now? Is it something that will be on the cards for China

or do you think they will have two incentivise people, and more

importantly, is this a political gesture to the outside world, as

opposed to a domestic strategy? I don't think it is a political

gesture. I think this is recognition of, the culmination of a series of

easing measures on policy. And the formal abandonment now means that

China actually has two address head-on the issue of a shrinking

working age population, which will happen in the foreseeable future.

Incentives to make people have children, we know that empirically,

in Russia, Spain, France, and many other countries, cash incentives

have been given to women to have more children and it has not worked.

Economic development is the best contraceptive of all. What happens,

partly in China because of the cost of education and health care, it is

a big constraint. But as people get better off, and parents go out to

work, it is difficult to switch people's reproductive habits. I do

not think this policy working. Immigration is not something the

Chinese will embrace, I think. But in other countries like the United

Kingdom, it is having a significant effect. Thank you both.

Some tragedies are so enormous you can't grip them.

The war in Syria and the exodus of refugees caused

The story of Azam is about the fate of one small boy from Damascus.

John Sweeney met him in Serbia in pain with a broken jaw.

Then he and the man with him vanished

Social media clamoured for Azam to be found and,

for Newsnight, John travelled 1,500 miles on the refugee trail in what

I am searching for one small boy from Damascus inside a pipeline of

humanity. A quarter of a million people have passed through this

reception centre in Serbia this month, most of them running from the

war in Syria. I've got a strange thing. Who speaks English? You speak

some? I was here a month ago and we found this boy in Belgrade and then

he vanished. He had a broken jaw and he disappeared. It's in Arabic. Can

you help me look for him? The boy I am looking for is Azam

Aldahan and I met him last month. Finding Azam seems virtually

impossible. Maybe it is worth a try, giving pieces of paper out. Azam had

been run over in Macedonia, or so this man said.

Azam mother was in Turkey, so where was his dad? They are travelling in

a group of 13 men. It looks like he has broken his jaw... The next day

in Belgrade, I met Azam again. He was alone, clearly in pain, and his

wound looked infected. Doctor Radmila Kosic was running a

makeshift clinic for the refugees. It's all right, son, it's OK. We

will just clean the wound and send him in an ambulance to the hospital.

Where is his father? He was here a minute ago. Our interpreter had a

quiet word with Azam. The little boy has told us he is not with his

father. His father is still in Turkey so he is going to hospital on

his own. It seems he is travelling with uncles or something, but for

the moment his uncle has gone. He is on his own. Finally, the man who

told us he was his father returned. Our translator was worried, and

questioned the man. Whoever the man is, he didn't want to hang around in

Serbia. But Azam and the man did get in the ambulance and went to

hospital. Foot weeks, no news of Azam, but finally the medical

authorities told us, before Azam could get the treatment he urgently

needed, Azam and the man had vanished. That should never have

happened, says doctor Kosic. The child could have serious injuries

after that traffic accident, I was told, so he should be in the

hospital, not on the road. He might have serious infections and some

concussion, brain concussion or something. He should not be on the

road. He should be in hospital. So not that much joy in Belgrade. Time

to rejoin the refugee track. Since Azam passed through Serbia in

September, it has moved 100 miles west. The people running from one

well have ended up in another, a town where Serbia stops and Croatia

begins. Croatia is over there. About 1000 people are waiting. Here is the

bad news. They are expecting 10,000 more tonight.

And yet, even here, the wretched of the Earth have time to help with the

search for Azam. The police here aren't exactly welcoming, but these

people are running from killing. We Europeans may boast about our

political stability but, in this very part of the world 24 years ago,

I witnessed Serbs and Croats running and killing each other. Night falls

and everything becomes grim, remote than before. The urge to sleep, but

they need to get on. -- more grim than before. The dawn mist cloaks

the hillside. Turning the apple orchards and cornfields by the

border crossing into a ghost world. In the fog from war, children go

missing. Some kids just wander off, only to reappear a short while

later. But stories swirl air and online, pointing to something more

sinister. Holding a child, I noticed, get you across the border

faster. Some kids who got lost have not been found. The cold makes your

bones creak. This family from Damascus light a fire to make

coffee. We are looking for a boy. 10,000 people are waiting. The

Croats allow batches of 50 to cross at any one time. The result, the cue

from hell. If you are disabled, you get fast tracked, just like at

Heathrow. Well, not quite. It's wet. I was rubbish at this at

school, and I still am. It's up. We had a tip-off that Azam had ended

up in Munich. Here, refugees find not poisoned gas and severed heads

at a world of grey, the drizzle of the human soul. This is a German

refugee camp and, for some at least, the end of the long road. It is for

us, too. The German Red Cross have told us, you are not family so,

according to our rules, we can't help you. We've tried but, so far,

we've failed to find Azam. Our brilliant friends at BBC Arabic

had been looking on Facebook, and they've found Azam's uncle. We

checked out his friends, and there he is, in Germany tonight. In the

photograph, red flowers, purple flowers. In the background, sports

shop. In the windows of the shop, the windows of the building

opposite, reflected. Circle windows, square windows. Azam's uncle sat in

this chair. Finding the man in the chair wasn't that simple. The uncle

got back to us via Facebook. We travelled the length of journey to

meet him, only to discover he'd switched his phone off. So we drove

around in circles and I feared I would never meet Azam again, until

this... If you are the uncle, why didn't you

say you were the uncle when you first met us?

What was the name of the doctor in Belgrade who said that it was fine

for Azam, with a broken jaw, to go on the road to Germany?

Where is Azam's mother and father now?

The good news? We've just learned that Azam's mum and dad have made it

to Germany, and we hope to speak to them soon. There's no sign of the

war in Syria ending but, in all this darkness, the story of Azam, once so

full of pain... Good to see you, Azam. Now, a point of light. Amazing

to find a story with a happy ending. Azam's tale has been -

one way or another - the story The progress and the struggle

of thousands of migrants across the borders have been images

that will leave their imprint And perhaps that explains why -

politically - there may be a new urgency to

resolve the bigger question of Britain's place in the European

Union sooner rather than later. What are you hearing? Well, I think

actually the images of last summer's migrant crisis is playing

on both camps in the EU referendum campaign. For the out campaign, over

the summer, they felt it was definitely starting to tip public

opinion on their way. I have spoken to people in the in campaign for

that reason who don't want the to people in the in campaign for

referendum to be staged anywhere near next summer, which they think

will have another migrant problem. There is a pitch from people around

the Chancellor, for instance, let's get this done really quickly and not

have it dominate the parliament. Many Eurosceptics think the

government has ruled out going quickly with a snap referendum. We

have been shown evidence that there is no ruling out of that. It is

possible they could go as soon as April. I don't think that is

likely, for several reasons. The April. I don't think that is

last of which is probably the migrant crisis point, which we will

come onto. migrant crisis point, which we will

probably have another row in the migrant crisis point, which we will

probably more unpopularity by saying migrant crisis point, which we will

that extreme -year-olds should be allowed to vote, and the House of

Commons allowed to vote, and the House of

16-year-old. They don't know what David Cameron wants in the

renegotiation package. You then come back to this issue about,

renegotiation package. You then come want it that window of the next

migrant crisis? I think, want it that window of the next

least a year away for the referendum.

have started banning those they believe

Last week, Cardiff University students signed a petition to try to

stop Germaine Greer from speaking at an event because of her

She pulled out - telling Newsnight she felt too old

Other commentators and writers have been banned

by other student bodies which have decreed their views problematic.

So are today's students more censorious -

or more sophisticated about where the level of tolerance should begin?

A rare victory for free speech in student politics, according to some.

Next month, Wikileaks's controversial founder

Julian Assange is to appear at the Cambridge Debating Society.

The decision, which followed a referendum,

triggered the resignation of the society's women's officer.

The comedian known as Dapper Laughs was not so lucky.

His planned show at Cardiff Student Union last year was

cancelled following a petition signed by 700 students.

Some student unions refuse to sell the Sun newspaper because

of the potential for Page 3 models to cause offence.

Even sombreros worn by restaurant staff advertising

at a freshers' fair in Norwich were branded discriminatory with their

It's all something of a far cry from the open-minded spirit

of the 1960s, where difference and conflict was seen as something

Here to discuss this are Toke Dahler from Leeds University Student Union,

and the Times columnist David Aaronovitch.

His Onto canvas? -- campus. Whenever society want to put on an event,

they ask us if there is any particular risk or any reason to

think that students would feel threatened or unsafe by inviting

certain speakers, and we make a decision based on that assessment.

What does that threat in tail? It is up to the students because we are a

student union. Our primary most important task is to make sure that

students feel safe and welcoming our building. Does that sound alien,

David? It does because you could argue that one of the major

responsibilities of a student union is to make sure that there is lively

debate and discussion, that students are a part of democratic society,

discussing things, rather than hermetically sealed away signed a

form of intellectual rampart within which they can feel safe. The

problem with what Toke is saying is that it is a problem of definition.

And feel safe and what do they feel safer from? We know that in recent

cases including the Muslim activist, who is now anti-religious,

and it was attempted to get banned from Warwick University. They filled

in a risk assessment and someone had said that she said terrible things

in the past so people would not feel safer ranter and consequently she

and her invitation withdrawn. The same thing with Jermaine Greer. The

attempt was made to make her not speak at Cardiff because apparently

transgender students might feel offended or unsafe. What does it

mean for students to feel unsafe? Does it mean they can never be

offended by a speaker? I am very interested in this, who has the

right to define it? Who knows what feeling unsafe feels like? Not long

ago a woman came to me and said that she had experienced two hate

crimes, racially motivated hate crimes. She came to me and said, I

would not feel safe if you invited the people from the same groups to

the University union. I think that definition of feeling unsafe is

better than your definition. Why? A student union is for students. It is

our right to decide who comes in the building. It is the right of the

students, not a Times columnist. I completely understand but that was

not the point you were making. The point you were making was that

somehow the judgment would be better about whether or not this person was

some kind of risk. When this person comes to you, do you say to this

person, what is the nature of the risk, somebody speaking, what would

that represent? Let's look at what you think that is. Or do you take it

on trust? Black students experience racism. They do not need to go to

the student union to do that. We do not need to confront women with

misogyny in the student union. We do not need to confront Jewish students

with anti-Semitism. The student union is a place where students can

gather and debate, but not a place where people should come and feel

that... The question, there is a possibility that we are the

dinosaurs here, and actually... It is a downright certainty in my case!

This generation of students has said that we do not need to invite

racists on. We do not need to invite in people who think that women are

inferior, we are more diverse and it will add nothing to the debate. Is

that wrong? It is, partially because there is not a settled view about

who these people are in any case. Jermaine Greer does not fit these

categories. Would you have banded Jermaine Greer? I would find it

highly inappropriate and highly offensive to invite a person who

does not think that transgender people are real people to

transgender awareness week. You would not want somebody expressing

that? Let's take it back. You would find it highly offensive to invite

someone who did not think that trans-people were real people.

Germaine Greer's argument, whether you accept it or not is that a

transgender male to female is not a real woman. That is her view. Do you

think that is a legitimate view for someone to express in front of

students? I am sure that if she was invited to Leeds University union,

that the students who identified as transgender would say that this was

not who we want in our building. If they can convince the rest of the

student body, who have democratically voted for our

policy... Would they convince you? They have voted for officers like

myself who believe in this platform. Have you had anyone that your

students did not feel safe with? Now, and this is probably one of the

biggest misconceptions. People think we banned this, that and the other.

But have you had people who have caused offence? Naturally. Of

course. Just this week we had debates on counterterrorism

strategies and whether we should stay in the EU, on the composition

of the curriculum, with even extreme views expressed. So what is not

allowed? Because I struggle to see why you would want students to be

cosseted from views they do not like. This is not about people being

safe from views that they do not like. This is about being

traumatised. How would Germaine Greer speaking traumatised people?

People who were not already traumatised. In what way can you

protect them from the outside world that banning Germaine Greer helps

you with? This is the upside of protecting people from the outside

world. This is realising that people get traumatised on the outside world

and the student union should be a safe space where people do not

go... Suppose the free-speech society comes to me and I am new and

they say, this guy, he makes me feel unsafe with his desire to stop

people speaking freely and I do not feel safe around him. Can you stop

them? What should I do? You should Askey the fellow students. And if

they say yes, I should ban you? If you get a petition saying that I am

traumatising people, I would step down. Do you not worry, Toke, that

your students are having a poor experience in the life than if they

just said, we are going to take all of these people and we are going to

ask them controversial questions, we might take them but we will listen

to them? Students are challenged their lives. A study with people

from different nationalities, they debate all kinds of things. I will

challenge you to find a group people who get a wider range of views and

who are confronted with more different experiences, wider range

of experiences that students. In the case, why would you stop them

reading the Sun, for instance? Why would you not sell it if that was

what they wanted to buy. Why not allow speakers in that they want to

invite. If they saw Paul... Open and able to debate, why do that? The

questionnaires, if you have a racist society, why let your student union

be racist as well. -- not in my union. Thank you for

In their own words, the charity Kids Company used political lobbying,

media briefing, arm twisting and a "bully strategy" to secure more than

Talk us through that. Before us what was said today.

Talk us through that. Before we knew that recently

Talk us through that. Before had been given ?3

Talk us through that. Before Cabinet Office, days before it

collapsed, against the advice of civil servants.

collapsed, against the advice of reveals is that actually it was not

the reveals is that actually it was not

that officials had advised ministers reveals is that actually it was not

ministers felt they down to the bully strategy. The

charity would come to a department and say, if we collapse, this will

be terrible, particularly in South London. And they used this

be terrible, particularly in South them self? Bully strategy is a

phrase that the Chief Executive of the charity, Camila Batmanghelidjh,

used about her approach in 2002. Effectively, they say to ministers

that it will be really bad and their friends in the press would find out

about it. The fact that the charity was very well connected, with Alan

Yentob as its chair of trustees, that did not help. They sent out

tentacles. So where does this go now? The big thing is that the story

is moving now? The big thing is that the story

minister who signed on to that, but actually the report gives them help

because what it says is that it is not just them, they are not the only

ones not just them, they are not the only

to give money to this charity. It happened again and again, all the

way back to 2002 and actually they asked Camila Batmanghelidjh to step

down from the charity. Unusually, they can say when questioned in

front of the Select they can say when questioned in

money, but at least we were trying around. We did not just give it to

them for nothing. Thank you very much. More on that tomorrow but that

is all we have time for tonight. From all of us here, good night.

is all we have time for tonight. From all of us here, good night.

Good evening. Plenty of rain in the forecast for the start of Friday,

particularly across England and Wales. A lot of surface water and

spray. The eastern side of England should dry and brighten up, becoming

quite