29/01/2016 Newsnight


29/01/2016

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The European Referendum campaign - what kind of fight will it be?

:00:00.:00:09.

I'll have you checkmated in your next move.

:00:10.:00:17.

One side has to win it when the vote comes.

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We'll look at what kind of argument will clinch it,

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and whether the negotiation will make any difference.

:00:33.:00:35.

Rhodes holds his place in Oxford, but the argument goes on.

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Cecil Rhodes, more than any individual in

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Cecil Rhodes, more than any symbolises British imperial power

:00:50.:00:52.

and the racial apartheid and racial violence that came with it in South

:00:53.:00:54.

Africa. We'll ask if it makes sense

:00:55.:00:54.

to fight over symbols. Celebrated novelist,

:00:55.:00:57.

but also - you might not know this, And I've got the

:00:58.:01:04.

bruises to prove it. Coming soon to a screen

:01:05.:01:15.

near you, an epic battle - But before we get to the main show,

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there's that other drama Now, scriptwriters all know that

:01:19.:01:25.

to make a gripping plot, And this morning, we were treated

:01:26.:01:30.

to a suggestion of the latest European offer on the vexed issue

:01:31.:01:36.

of migration and benefits. It didn't sound like much

:01:37.:01:38.

of an offer - an emergency benefits brake that other countries have

:01:39.:01:41.

to vote on. But who knows whether that's

:01:42.:01:43.

the real state of play, or just a ploy to give us all some

:01:44.:01:46.

jeopardy and make the final deal What we do know is that

:01:47.:01:49.

the Foreign Secretary, Philip Hammond, said last night,

:01:50.:01:55.

that if there's no significant deal on migration, Britain

:01:56.:01:57.

will vote to leave. So with everything hotting up,

:01:58.:02:00.

let's get out of the weeds of the current negotiations,

:02:01.:02:03.

and into the big questions about what kind of fight each camp

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is going to conduct. We'll start with Chris Cook,

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on referendum tactics and strategy. The EU referendum currently looks

:02:10.:02:27.

like it could be a very tight race. And so having consulted the BBC big

:02:28.:02:31.

book of heavy-handed metaphor, I have come to a racetrack. I am

:02:32.:02:36.

resigned to having to work quite hard for your attention on this

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topic. Now both campaigns actually reveal one thing. The average voter

:02:45.:02:47.

is not very interested by this question. They have not got prior

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conceptions in the way they do in normal elections, nor is it as

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energising as the Scottish referendum. There are loads to play

:02:57.:03:01.

for. Many voters have strong views on Europe, but most are just not

:03:02.:03:11.

watching the minutiae of the Prime Ministers campaigning. Headline

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polls are really less useful than usual. Campaigns are conducting

:03:14.:03:20.

exercises like one that better together did in the Scottish

:03:21.:03:24.

referendum. They have identified six groups. First, two sort of

:03:25.:03:29.

Unionists. Two sort of pro-independence voters they could

:03:30.:03:34.

write off. That left two sort of swing voters from their good fight.

:03:35.:03:37.

That helped them tailor their messages. Estimates vary between

:03:38.:03:43.

their being one fifth than one third of voters in play. What messages

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might expect to hear? The number one reason we're having this referendum

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is probably immigration. That means the strategic challenge for both

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campaigns revolves around immigration. If they remain they

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have to show they can understand the concerns of voters who have

:04:03.:04:06.

legitimate worries around immigration. But fur leave, they

:04:07.:04:09.

need to understand they pretty much have all of the votes of voters who

:04:10.:04:14.

are Eurosceptic and worried about immigration. That is why senior

:04:15.:04:25.

people who vote leave worry that... It is very striking by the way that

:04:26.:04:29.

the in campaign is focusing heavily on security. Today they campaigned

:04:30.:04:36.

on Europe-wide law enforcement. The campaign is just hotting up. View

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our being able to see some of these tried and tested techniques at the

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ready, whether it is the cost of staying, the cost of leaving,

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complexity, trying to paint the other side as to come to cater to

:04:50.:04:56.

get to grips with, and also fear. We are seeing some tried and tested

:04:57.:05:01.

techniques already emerging. Vote Leave see staying in as a 1970s

:05:02.:05:06.

choice. They say exit would allow Britain to seize opportunity. But

:05:07.:05:13.

sceptics on both sides have clocked that globalisation is the thing

:05:14.:05:16.

people do not like, and strength in numbers is an idea that resonates.

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Both sides expect the leave campaign will work hard to offer reassurance.

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Both sides also expect stay to concentrate on explaining what we

:05:28.:05:31.

get for our EU membership. Most people do not know. That fight will

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decide who ends in first place and who trails behind.

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Here with me - the MEP Dan Hannan, who is on the board of Vote Leave,

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one of the leave campaigns, and Lucy Thomas, Deputy Director

:05:42.:05:43.

Let's just start on the negotiation. Lucy, do you think it is going to

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make any difference? We're reporting on it every day and does not sound

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like anybody is engaging. Is that correct? Most people think the EU is

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not perfect, so absolutely right for the Prime Minister to push for

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reform and make it better. Like successive Prime Ministers have

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done. But fundamentally our case is about the benefits outweighing the

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costs right now. Whether that is on security, like the European Arrest

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Warrant, free trade, lower prices, those things. But fur people out

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there, they want to know what the benefits are and costs are to

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address the question. You're not going to make a very big deal of it,

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because you think we should be in, regardless? The benefits outweigh

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the costs. But I do think it is important to prove that as a member

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you can make it better. On the eurozone, that is about the

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long-term sustainability of being a member with the best of both worlds

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in with the benefits of free trade but not in the single currency. Dan,

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I know you do not think very much of the renegotiation. Do you think the

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voters will make much of it? No. I cannot imagine there are people

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watching thinking, I am really on the fence about this, but a partial

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moratorium on benefits claims for four years for migrants, that will

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swing it. These are fairly small-scale negotiations. Lucy knows

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it. There is one way in which I think it will impact the campaign.

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It is the smell of the thing. People will see a British Prime Minister,

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the leader of the fifth biggest economy in the world, second biggest

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in the EU, touring Europe, begging for the right to tweak is on asylum

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rooms -- rules and still getting the brush off. That would tell people

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something about the extent of our subordination. To emphasise how

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powerless we are? Yes to have raised and dashed expectations will leave

:07:59.:08:05.

the yes side in a worse position. What is really interesting is, how

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do you think that we have more influence and more control by

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leaving? Because we take back control of our borders, money,

:08:15.:08:18.

taxes, our democracy. We have been outvoted more than any other member

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country of the EU. Let me come in here. I want to focus, one of the

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things I wanted to focus on was the question of how immigration is going

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to play. I would imagine you both think migration will be a big issue

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through the campaign? Think is one of the issues. But I will go back to

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what Dan was saying. This idea that we do not have control now. How is

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it that France and Germany are going to give us a better deal when we

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just walked out and left? I simply do not understand how we get more

:08:52.:08:55.

control. We will be an independent country, Lucy, like New Zealand and

:08:56.:09:01.

Japan. There are 198 territories in the UN of which 170 are not in the

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European Union. To me the most interesting question of the whole

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thing, and I don't know the answer, is, if we leave, do we get our

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border back? Carl Bildt said on this problem the other day if you want

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access to the single market you will have two have free movement, like

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Norway and Switzerland. This is about control more than migration. I

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am quite a fan of controlled legal immigration. I think people in the

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country will also want to have a component of refugees coming into

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the country. But if you are going to make that argument, people in return

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want to know that they are ultimately in charge of who we admit

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and about numbers. You have totally avoided the question. Do you expect

:09:50.:09:56.

Britain will have access to the single market, but will not have

:09:57.:10:03.

free movement under current rules? Nobody is suggesting we are going to

:10:04.:10:10.

join Schengen. Every time you mention Switzerland they say,

:10:11.:10:14.

Schengen. Nobody is suggesting that. I think it would be sensible for us

:10:15.:10:19.

to have an element of free movement of labour, but I don't think that

:10:20.:10:25.

should be a pre-judgement of benefits. People coming in as

:10:26.:10:29.

seasonal workers, that will carry on. It will carry on with people

:10:30.:10:34.

from outside the EU. There is an issue of fairness. There will be a

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lot of Brits of Commonwealth origin who know what a hassle is to bring

:10:41.:10:43.

somebody over for a wedding because we have had to crack down on visas

:10:44.:10:51.

to make space for EU nationals. Your weakness probably is immigration.

:10:52.:10:55.

Daniel Hannan has given a long answer to the question but that has

:10:56.:10:59.

got to be basically the weak point of your campaign? I am not sure it

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is. We have just heard there will be an element of free movement. Leave

:11:05.:11:08.

does not mean closing the border. If people are try to argue that that is

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all leaving means, there is evidence it is not that if we still want

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those benefits. Nobody is suggesting that. The personality factor, at the

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moment you would like Boris to join your campaign. I would like

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everyone. Do you need a big name? The public are probably going to get

:11:30.:11:33.

lost in the detailed conversation. Do you need a big-name? In the AV

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referendum there was not a big-name. In the north-east there was not a

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big-name. It is a strength to have people making different argument is

:11:45.:11:47.

to different constituencies. I do not think you need a single figure.

:11:48.:11:52.

Because, although we all come together wanting a democracy back,

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we disagree about what we would do as Labour, Conservative, green or

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whatever. It should be for the British people to decide. Wildie

:12:02.:12:06.

Prime Minister ultimately lead the in campaign? Let's see what happens

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with his reforms and what he decides to do. They will be lots of

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different people on our side of the argument, as there already are. We

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have huge diversity from the president of the NUS to the former

:12:19.:12:22.

head of the army, to respected business leaders, a cross-party of

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people. Dan's party are fighting each other over who is gone to lead

:12:29.:12:33.

the campaign. Let's pic on your campaign. Agley both campaigns have

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a degree of disarray. Stewart rose seems to beat Wheeldon, not properly

:12:40.:12:43.

briefed. He was given statistics he does not have to defend because they

:12:44.:12:47.

are largely thought of as indefensible. And unable to remember

:12:48.:12:50.

the name of your campaign on sky television interview. I think that

:12:51.:12:56.

can happen to the best of us. Forget to remember the name of the campaign

:12:57.:13:01.

they lead? That clip was before he properly started recording the

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interview. You got in a tangle over somebody's name earlier in the week.

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I can at least remember the name of the programme I am presenting, what

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is it to Newsnight. Stewart has led one of this country's best loved and

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best named brand. We have diversity on our board who are all hugely

:13:26.:13:29.

respected and incredible in their own field of who are making the same

:13:30.:13:33.

argument, unlike Dan's side were fighting each other. Do you agree

:13:34.:13:38.

that nothing will change the first ten years after we leave? It is on

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the record. Talking about disarray, there seems to be on your side of

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the argument a tendency for your site to fight each other. You have

:13:49.:13:54.

got a vote leave. You are on the board. Arguments about whether

:13:55.:14:00.

Dominic Cummings is running it. What is going on? We have so much

:14:01.:14:04.

exuberance. We have so many people wanting to do it. In every campaign

:14:05.:14:08.

there are strong feelings. You have covered in general elections to know

:14:09.:14:12.

that people, because they want to win, have different ideas. The idea

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that we are not pulling together around the general vision of

:14:16.:14:18.

fighting an upbeat, optimistic, positive campaign about a global

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Britain, we are going to come together. Will Dominic Cummings be

:14:25.:14:28.

an office on Monday? Yes. 20 both.

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Cecil Rhodes has triumphed for the time being -

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Oriel College says his statue will stay, against the wishes

:14:34.:14:36.

of the campaign to have him taken down, given his brutal

:14:37.:14:38.

The argument though has been remarkable.

:14:39.:14:41.

In a way, it's a bit like the other Cecil -

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Cecil the Lion - one of those individual cases that somehow

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ignites a consciousness of a far bigger issue.

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In this case, it's been the British variant

:14:51.:14:53.

John Sweeney went to Oxford today to see how contentious

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The Latin says roughly thanks to the great generosity of Cecil Rhodes but

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others disagree. Cecil Rhodes said... He was a 19th-century

:15:29.:15:40.

imperialist who made a mint in South Africa. Some students want this

:15:41.:15:45.

symbol of racial supremacy to be cast down. I do not think that a

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statue that symbolises racial violence and apartheid should be

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adorning any acronym done Mike academic institution of any

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institution that considers itself to be progressive. What it has done

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with it I do not really care but I do not think it should be part of an

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academic institution. Oxford has decided that Cecil Rhodes is

:16:09.:16:15.

staying. If you start with smashing the statue, where do you stop? What

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about the kings and bishops hanging out with Cecil Rhodes? The

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21st-century is not big on statues but it does do legacy. This business

:16:29.:16:35.

School is evidence some say of the amazing generosity of a billionaire

:16:36.:16:41.

benefactor, proof according to others that the facilitator is

:16:42.:16:49.

worried about his immortal soul. It is not just rich men who have have

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been buying up chunks of our universities. An imperial power is

:16:56.:17:02.

at it as well, but that is not Britain. China is being to get its

:17:03.:17:08.

Confucius Institutes into our academia. LSE has received ?860,000

:17:09.:17:14.

from the detainees state and that is not all. It turns out they find 29

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Confucius centres across the country in universities like Cardiff, eight

:17:21.:17:27.

Edinburgh and Manchester. Totalling up to roughly ?4 million a year.

:17:28.:17:37.

Smashing up statues of people you do not bike has always been good fun.

:17:38.:17:43.

It is how the present gets its revenge on the past. The danger is

:17:44.:17:47.

if you clean up history too much you may end up forgetting it.

:17:48.:17:51.

With me now, the historians David Olusoga and Tom Holland.

:17:52.:17:59.

I would like to generalise this beyond Cecil Rhodes. Is it a concern

:18:00.:18:08.

you have that there is a tendency in Britain and maybe other parts of the

:18:09.:18:12.

west to whitewash some of the full things that we did in the past and

:18:13.:18:16.

that is what this debate is about? The debate has got to the heart of

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the fact that the statues are not very good at telling of history.

:18:21.:18:25.

Telling of the very simple one-sided celebratory history. The image of

:18:26.:18:31.

Cecil Rhodes that is presented as of his great works. He undoubtedly gave

:18:32.:18:36.

a lot of money that has done a lot of good but there is another side of

:18:37.:18:40.

a legend died statues do not give us that. They are not very good tools

:18:41.:18:47.

for history. It is just a statue. Do you think there is a problem with

:18:48.:18:51.

whitewashing of colonial past or not? I think we have struggled in

:18:52.:18:58.

this country to look all the sickly at the colonial past. Some people

:18:59.:19:02.

want to claim that everything Britain did abroad was terrible.

:19:03.:19:11.

Then there are people who convince themselves that the empire was some

:19:12.:19:18.

enormous act, some great global charity that Britain abandoned the

:19:19.:19:21.

poor of Britain and spent its wealth and treasure going around the world

:19:22.:19:28.

and was -- worrying about whether India would have a railway. It was

:19:29.:19:36.

done for profit. Where are we on Empire? A lot of this debate is

:19:37.:19:45.

really about attitudes to the imperial past. Yes. The debate

:19:46.:19:50.

demonstrates that attitudes to Empire are divided and essentially

:19:51.:19:53.

there is a huge conflict-of-interest. I do not think

:19:54.:19:59.

that the people who are supporting the retention of the statue Kirk

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very much about Rhodes himself. I think it reflects a sense that

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people have of how we in this country have traditionally done

:20:12.:20:15.

history. We are not like the French or the Russians. We do not go around

:20:16.:20:22.

toppling statues because we have the slightly strange attitude to our

:20:23.:20:26.

history that we have evolved gradually over time. I did not hear

:20:27.:20:37.

a whimper of discontent at Jimmy Savile in Glasgow. Maybe that is the

:20:38.:20:41.

exception that proves the rule. In Oxford there was a memorial to fill

:20:42.:20:48.

Marshal Haig that was put up and got discreetly removed so it does happen

:20:49.:20:52.

but what you have in Oxford in the examination rooms is a picture of

:20:53.:20:56.

the Kaiser. With these memorials it is as though you are looking at

:20:57.:21:00.

fossils in a great wall of sedimentary rock and you can use

:21:01.:21:04.

them to trace the evolution of our history and that is part of the

:21:05.:21:08.

fascination. We have Rhodes in Oxford but we have the young Mandela

:21:09.:21:14.

and the elder statesman Mandela in Parliament Square. That is one

:21:15.:21:20.

tradition. Britain has two traditions. The domestic and the

:21:21.:21:26.

colonial and Britain has gone around the world than destroyed thousands

:21:27.:21:31.

of statues. Missionaries destroyed temples in Africa of the indigenous

:21:32.:21:35.

people and we went to China and we destroyed one of the great jaws of

:21:36.:21:43.

China. We went and destroyed another palace and all of the bronzes of the

:21:44.:21:50.

kingdom. We have another great sideline which is in pinching

:21:51.:21:53.

statues. The British Museum is full of statues... This idea that statues

:21:54.:22:00.

are somehow uniquely sacrosanct and unviable for the British might be

:22:01.:22:05.

true in the domestic sense... Within Britain. His career was not in

:22:06.:22:14.

Britain, it was in Africa. In a way this gets to the heart of the debate

:22:15.:22:18.

about other things like the way the language is sexist or other symbols.

:22:19.:22:24.

Should we focus as much as we do for modern causes on symbols? On

:22:25.:22:30.

changing symbols? Like statues or words. I think they can be extremely

:22:31.:22:40.

important. There is a risk happening in some university campuses this

:22:41.:22:45.

idea that no disagreement or idea that you do not like should be

:22:46.:22:49.

presented to you. You should love in a safe space. You are not in favour

:22:50.:22:55.

of that? I am opposed to that but I do not think that is what this

:22:56.:23:03.

debate is about. Do we go too far? That is quite common to pull down a

:23:04.:23:08.

statue. These are complex and difficult issues. We live in an age

:23:09.:23:13.

where an effective hash tag can generate an it I campaign. The

:23:14.:23:20.

ability of people to harness campaigns is having an impact on the

:23:21.:23:23.

way in which certain symbols and acting as lightning rods. No one in

:23:24.:23:29.

this campaign is talking about toppling or destroying statues. This

:23:30.:23:35.

is not destroying the statue. India has had a great solution. All the

:23:36.:23:43.

old statues are used to be littered around colonial belly are jumbled

:23:44.:23:48.

old statues are used to be littered together in a park. None

:23:49.:23:48.

old statues are used to be littered have been destroyed. Last time I was

:23:49.:23:51.

that there was a queen or storks have been destroyed. Last time I was

:23:52.:23:57.

nesting on Queen Victoria. There is a way of diffusing statues.

:23:58.:24:02.

nesting on Queen Victoria. There is is to accept they

:24:03.:24:04.

nesting on Queen Victoria. There is history and should stay there. At

:24:05.:24:09.

Whitehall you have a statue of Charles

:24:10.:24:12.

Whitehall you have a statue of Cromwell. That seems a wonderful way

:24:13.:24:12.

of sorting out the problems. Cromwell. That seems a wonderful way

:24:13.:24:22.

have space for both. Maybe a bigger plaque explaining the context. I

:24:23.:24:27.

wanted to be contextualised. I want the other side of Rhodes' career.

:24:28.:24:33.

That is what they seem to be saying they will do. I do not think we will

:24:34.:24:37.

be arguing about this in a year. But if you want a writer

:24:38.:24:40.

who really walks the walk, look no further than

:24:41.:24:45.

best-selling author Before he made it big with novels,

:24:46.:24:46.

including The World According to Garp, The Cider House Rules

:24:47.:24:50.

and A Prayer for Owen Meany, Irving kept his young family

:24:51.:24:53.

by training fighters. He sold well over 12 million books

:24:54.:24:56.

in 35 languages since. Now 73, Irving's new book,

:24:57.:25:01.

Avenue of Mysteries, presciently anticipates our current

:25:02.:25:03.

preoccupations with migration He went 12 rounds with our

:25:04.:25:05.

punch-drunk palooka, If this is going to work,

:25:06.:25:08.

we have to keep it quite Not any more because I am

:25:09.:25:19.

standing on your foot. Hemingway played the macho card

:25:20.:25:30.

but you have kind of lived it, I competed as a wrestler for 20

:25:31.:25:51.

years and I coached the sport until I was 47 but I

:25:52.:25:58.

was disappointed. I was a good wrestler

:25:59.:25:59.

among better wrestlers. Just as well he was more

:26:00.:26:05.

of a contender on the page. Irving's new novel follows

:26:06.:26:14.

the Mexican slum kid Juan Diego who becomes

:26:15.:26:19.

a successful writer. The book deals with the consolations

:26:20.:26:25.

and failings of religion. The word got around that he had

:26:26.:26:30.

taught himself to read. That was how the Jesuits,

:26:31.:26:35.

who put such a high priority While Juan Diego has always been

:26:36.:26:41.

suspicious of the man-made institution of the Catholic Church,

:26:42.:26:54.

of the man-made rules, dictates, policies, politics

:26:55.:26:57.

of the Catholic Church, he has always been

:26:58.:27:02.

seeking to believe. For an alpha male of

:27:03.:27:11.

a writer Irving is much praised by some critics

:27:12.:27:13.

for his liberal approach to issues 40 years ago I was writing

:27:14.:27:15.

The World According to Garp where the most sympathetic

:27:16.:27:20.

and arguably the least sexually volatile or intemperate

:27:21.:27:30.

person in the novel is the transgender

:27:31.:27:34.

character in that novel. The treatment, the acceptance,

:27:35.:27:37.

the tolerance, of sexual minorities, gays, lesbians and transgender

:27:38.:27:42.

people, is certainly better. The fact you say it

:27:43.:27:55.

as an issue and a debate still today keeps

:27:56.:27:58.

the issue alive in my work. Jermaine Greer, who I am sure

:27:59.:28:01.

you know, said that a transgender I do not take and have never taken

:28:02.:28:05.

Jermaine Greer seriously. She does not know what

:28:06.:28:13.

she is talking about. Irving has written more than a dozen

:28:14.:28:26.

novels and won an Oscar after adapting one

:28:27.:28:35.

of them, The Cider Irving's new novel concerns

:28:36.:28:36.

the plight of people in poor countries like Mexico

:28:37.:29:01.

and the appeal of more I feel very badly for

:29:02.:29:03.

Mrs Merkel who I believe has tried to do the right thing,

:29:04.:29:10.

the progressive thing, the responsible thing,

:29:11.:29:14.

the humane thing, by It is tragic that

:29:15.:29:19.

among the people who perpetrated that violence

:29:20.:29:28.

against those women in Cologne has caused this backlash

:29:29.:29:33.

against Mrs Merkel and against the genuine heartfelt

:29:34.:29:39.

instinct that you have to help these people who have nowhere to go,

:29:40.:29:45.

who are in peril, who need to come. Donald Trump, I do not know

:29:46.:29:52.

if he has resiled from this but he talked about

:29:53.:29:57.

building a wall to keep I do not take what Mr

:29:58.:29:59.

Trump says seriously. But I am seriously worried

:30:00.:30:08.

about the number of people who are angry, as angry,

:30:09.:30:13.

as ignorant, as misinformed or uninformed or shallowly

:30:14.:30:20.

informed as he is. The old grappler even pulls off

:30:21.:30:32.

a somersault leg drop on the American

:30:33.:30:39.

writer's biggest foe. I never wanted to write

:30:40.:30:42.

the great American novel. It always struck me as another act

:30:43.:30:56.

of patriotic extermism that anyone would care to write

:30:57.:30:59.

a great American novel. We still have some hazards to come

:31:00.:31:18.

through the night and into

:31:19.:31:20.

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