08/02/2016 Newsnight


08/02/2016

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That American election - it's time for Round 2.

:00:00.:00:09.

Tonight, we're in New Hampshire, watching momentum gather for Bernie

:00:10.:00:12.

I ask Hillary Clinton what she makes of it.

:00:13.:00:19.

Can you just explain for us how you understand the momentum towards

:00:20.:00:27.

Bernie, at the moment? Well, you know, I - let me start by saying, I

:00:28.:00:32.

am really happy to see so many young people involved in the political

:00:33.:00:33.

process. Back in the other big

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contest of 2016 - Europe. The head of the international crime

:00:36.:00:40.

fighters Europol tells us why If UK is no longer a member

:00:41.:00:42.

of the EU, it wouldn't have the same access to that well regulated,

:00:43.:00:48.

well developed capability. I think, therefore, it would make it

:00:49.:00:50.

harder for Britain to fight The great debate on Europe -

:00:51.:00:53.

how would Mrs Thatcher vote in the referendum, and is it

:00:54.:01:04.

sensible to even speculate Two people close to her tell

:01:05.:01:06.

us what they think. Yes, the state votes tomorrow in its

:01:07.:01:17.

presidential election primary. You will be reminded over the next

:01:18.:01:25.

48 hours that the state slogan is Live Free or Die,

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and it is a state where the hopes of some of the trailing candidates

:01:29.:01:31.

will surely be brutally murdered. But watch the results carefully,

:01:32.:01:36.

because most new presidents - with the some recent exceptions -

:01:37.:01:40.

have risen to that office after winning the New

:01:41.:01:44.

Hampshire contest. Emily is in Manchester,

:01:45.:01:47.

New Hampshire. Good evening from New Hampshire,

:01:48.:01:53.

where voters are preparing to head for the polls in the first

:01:54.:01:56.

primary of the US election. Over the past few weeks,

:01:57.:01:59.

momentum has been gathering for Bernie Sanders, whose soaring

:02:00.:02:02.

lead over Hillary Clinton brought out a sharp rebuke from

:02:03.:02:07.

Bill Clinton this weekend. The Vermont senator believes

:02:08.:02:11.

in new politics and has begun to attract young,

:02:12.:02:16.

female voters in droves. America's answer to Jereym Corbyn

:02:17.:02:20.

with a Brooklyn accent. Tonight, we ask if the momentum

:02:21.:02:24.

is particular to this state or if the revolution of the left

:02:25.:02:30.

speaks to a wider dissatisfaction with American politcs and the need

:02:31.:02:37.

for long-term change. We start tonight in Sanders' home

:02:38.:02:40.

state, neighbouring Vermont. There are different ways

:02:41.:02:46.

of expressing your commitment to a candidate - the T-shirt,

:02:47.:02:49.

the bumper sticker and then A permanent tattoo

:02:50.:02:52.

of his head on your skin. Here in Bernie Sanders'

:02:53.:02:58.

home state of Vermont, they are offering them free to any

:02:59.:03:01.

supporter who wants one. Sure enough, his fans -

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let's call them Sandernistas - It's Jenny's turn -

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she's a psychology student I never voted in a presidential

:03:10.:03:15.

election before. I think that even if he doesn't get

:03:16.:03:20.

the nomination, I think that this is just the beginning

:03:21.:03:23.

of something very, very large. "Bernie's got my back",

:03:24.:03:26.

Danika tells me. She peels off the

:03:27.:03:32.

platter to show me. You don't worry that

:03:33.:03:34.

a tattoo is for life, No, I think actually -

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to me, because he is such a brave person and, like, his message

:03:39.:03:44.

and what he is doing is so iconic The boss has done more than 70

:03:45.:03:47.

this past week. Have you had any really bizarre

:03:48.:03:52.

requests? A middle finger, and just recently

:03:53.:03:55.

someone wanted the It's a little darker

:03:56.:04:01.

than our lightest roast. It's not just tattoos,

:04:02.:04:08.

it's coffee too. The Capital Grounds Cafe

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is marketing a new flavour they call They give away 20% of what they make

:04:14.:04:16.

to Sanders' veterans. They come in and buy bags,

:04:17.:04:21.

bags and bags every day. What is striking is the absence

:04:22.:04:26.

a party machine behind all this. It's grass roots activism

:04:27.:04:30.

as its most radical. Small businesses who hear Sanders

:04:31.:04:32.

looking out for them Sanders is the man with

:04:33.:04:35.

the momentum right now. His brand of socialism -

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anti-Wall Street, pro-income equality and cannabis legalisation -

:04:41.:04:42.

appeals to the young The same kind of crowd that voted

:04:43.:04:45.

for Jeremy Corbyn back in September. With his shock of dishevelled hair

:04:46.:04:52.

and specs, he is embraced - or cultivated - as the grumpy

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Jewish Brooklyn boy out of Seinfeld. Indeed, its creator Larry David

:04:56.:05:01.

frequently impersonates him. The skit on the satirical

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Saturday Night Live show plays to the perception his voter base

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is largely Caucasian. The population of New Hampshire,

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where he has a massive lead, And that is something

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Hillary Clinton wants This is her last Town Hall

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appearance before New Hampshire A stage-managed affair that is meant

:05:32.:05:36.

to seem folksy. For half an hour ahead of the event,

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they have been trying to fill the camera shot behind her

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with young Asian and black faces - a subliminal reminder of how much

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wider her appeal base is. I'm still trying to work out

:05:52.:05:53.

whether the questions are all planted when suddenly

:05:54.:05:57.

she chooses me. Can you just explain for us how

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you understand the momentum Let me start by saying I am really

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happy to see so many young people I know Senator Sanders has a very

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big base of young voters, and they are not supporting me,

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and I just want any of you, and others that you know,

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to know I am supporting you. Her husband, the former President,

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wasn't quite so measured, taking aim at Sanders

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and his supporters, and his Secretary of

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State Madeleine Albright then chastised young women

:06:33.:06:35.

for not choosing Hilary. Just remember, there is a special

:06:36.:06:39.

place in hell for women These attacks tell you they

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are spooked by Sanders, and although no-one will say

:06:43.:06:52.

the words out loud, they worry he may be having the same effect

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on the young and disaffected that In many states, if you declare

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as an independent voter you can't vote for a Republican or Democrats

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in the primary contest, but in New Hampshire

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that is not the care. As an independent, you can go along

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on the day and vote for which ever In other words, this particular

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contest has that whole And it's estimated that as many

:07:18.:07:21.

as 40% could be independents here. As with Obama, it's all

:07:22.:07:26.

about whether Sanders can When you talk to Bernie

:07:27.:07:28.

supporters here in Vermont, they say it's not a fad, a passing

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phase, they like what he has done to the state here as Senator

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Sanders, and they feel whether or not he wins

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the nomination, the movement behind And don't forget New Hampshire

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is Sanders's backyard. A large block of that progressive

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white vote and people But from here, the race gets faster,

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and much more racially diverse. Whether the people of South Carolina

:07:53.:08:01.

will be so ready to feel the burn, well, that is where things start

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to get interesting. Before we get to South Carolina,

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there's the voting right here. Well, I'm joined now

:08:13.:08:17.

by Nomiki Konst, a Democratic Party analyst and founder

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of the anti-corruption group The Accountability Project,

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who describes herself Also here in New Hampshire we have

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Joe Klein, political columnist for Time magazine and long-time

:08:27.:08:30.

observer of the Clinton family. Starting with you, you heard

:08:31.:08:36.

Madeleine Allbright's line where she said there is a special circle of

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hell reserved for women who don't work to help women. She was talking

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to those Sanders' supporters who are female. I respect Madeleine all

:08:46.:08:52.

bright. She's a crusader for women all around the world. I enjoy that

:08:53.:08:56.

quote when it's used in different ways. I don't think that's the right

:08:57.:09:02.

setting. Other Hillary supporters have said that has well. The problem

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with the millennium femme nists is that they don't feel included in the

:09:07.:09:09.

process. They feel that the institution of the Democratic Party

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has been running candidates that are out of touch with their concerns and

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their needs and they weren't there to fight for them in key moments,

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because they were more concerned with winning, more concerned with

:09:21.:09:23.

working with the other side. Working with the other side is very

:09:24.:09:26.

important, but you have to have a back bone. So, from my perspective

:09:27.:09:33.

as a Bernie supporters, I support him because he's attacking the root

:09:34.:09:38.

cause of income inequality, the root cause of gender inequality. That's

:09:39.:09:41.

Wall Street. They're campaigning against equal pay. When you see the

:09:42.:09:46.

big guns coming out, Clinton, Allbright, Hillary Clinton doesn't

:09:47.:09:49.

need those people... Is she a big gun? I thought what she said is

:09:50.:09:54.

outrageous. She wouldn't say that about Marine Le Pen would she? She

:09:55.:10:02.

was just saying it about Bernie and about Hillary. Feminism has been the

:10:03.:10:06.

most successful political movement in my lifetime. We're going to see a

:10:07.:10:13.

woman president before very long. Women are markedly

:10:14.:10:15.

woman president before very long. I can tell you that. To even -

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that's so 25 years ago what she said. Why are the women, I know the

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tattoo parlour is not represented, but a lot of young women coming in

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and they're all talking about Bernie Sanders, not Hillary Clinton, when

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Shh... It should be -- should be "her moment". Millenniums are very

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familiar with her. She's been part of their lives since they were born.

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They are looking for a woman to rise up. It would be important for the

:10:47.:10:50.

Democratic Party to take note. We need a bench of women, not just one

:10:51.:10:57.

woman or three women. I agree on some points, are superior, but we

:10:58.:11:01.

have a lot of work to do. Similar to LGBT issues. They've had a very

:11:02.:11:06.

successful campaign. Women have been fighting for 25 years who aren't

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ready to move over. I want to talk about the actual campaign. We're

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hearing now from politicalo, that Bill Clinton and Hillary Clinton are

:11:18.:11:20.

not happy with the way it's going, there's going to be strategy

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changes. That's never happened before (! ) Every single campaign.

:11:25.:11:29.

What they're talking about is some dissatisfaction with their pollster.

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They fired their pollster in the last election. They go through

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pollsters the way through people go through underwear. This is a pretty

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classic Clinton campaign. The problem, her big problem is this:

:11:44.:11:50.

She was, when she was in her youth, she was the moral equivalent of a

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Bernie Sanders supporter. She supported George McGovern. She

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worked for him in Texas. I asked her what would you, how would you

:12:02.:12:04.

convince the younger version of yourself to vote for you now? And it

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isn't an easy answer. Her strengths is the fact that she works like a

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dog. She knows an awful lot. She knows the world in a way that Bernie

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doesn't. And those are tough things to get across to younger people. Is

:12:21.:12:24.

this the beginning of a game changer? When we talk about

:12:25.:12:28.

momentum, this is the kind of momentum that we saw for Obama in

:12:29.:12:32.

2008, reaching voters that nobody had reached before. But the

:12:33.:12:36.

difference is that Barack Obama was a moderate. Hillary was to his left

:12:37.:12:43.

on health care, if you remember. In this case, we'll see what happens.

:12:44.:12:48.

I've seen this happen once in my lifetime, that was George McGovern.

:12:49.:12:53.

As a result the Democratic Party was ruined for 20 years. The difference

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is there, just to make note, the country was a much more conservative

:12:58.:13:02.

country in the 60s. Today the country is more progressive on

:13:03.:13:05.

social issues. That's where the cue for the Democratic Party is. They

:13:06.:13:09.

need to move further to the left, not start at the middle and

:13:10.:13:13.

negotiate to the left. I think social issues are not what this

:13:14.:13:16.

campaign will be about. The Republicans are moving to the left

:13:17.:13:20.

on things like gay marriage, scurrying to the left. What we have

:13:21.:13:28.

to be thinking about is how do you counteract a nativist,

:13:29.:13:30.

anti-immigrant, anti-Muslim movement. Just over there, Donald

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Trump's having a rally tonight and there are going to be thousands of

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people there. Do you think that's where the Republican nomination is

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going to end up? I don't know if he can win it. They have about a third

:13:44.:13:46.

of their constituents in his corner. The rest of the party will have to

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consolidate against that. I think that whoever gets the nomination is

:13:50.:13:54.

going to move in that direction toward a kind of nativist,

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anti-immigrant, no nothing, what the movement has historically been

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called here -- know nothing. Do we think we will see Michael Bloomberg

:14:05.:14:12.

enter the race? There's only one thing that he would do if he came

:14:13.:14:18.

into this race, if it was Trump versus Bernie sort of race, he would

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elect Donald Trump president. That would truly be tragic. I don't know

:14:23.:14:27.

about that. Nothing is worse than having two billionaires in the race

:14:28.:14:31.

talking about income inequality. Good point. Hey, I won one! In six

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hours' time, the polls open here. There are tiny places, about 35

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voters in all there, but they will be the first ones to go to the polls

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and those results will probably be in by the time you wake up tomorrow

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morning. David Cameron's reported pro-EU

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referendum campaign is apparently going to focus on security -

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or scaring the hell out of people Today, for example, he said EU

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withdrawal could help terrorists by undermining European

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security co-operation. Not that the campaign has started

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yet, you understand. Now it so happens that the man

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responsible for security cooperation He's a Brit called Rob Wainright,

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and he's the director of Europol, But before we got on to that,

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we discussed a more down-to-earth problem on his mind,

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the small matter of big banknotes - The issue is: Who are

:15:40.:15:42.

high-denomination notes for, except drug dealers,

:15:43.:15:45.

money launderers, human traffickers and

:15:46.:15:47.

organised criminals? Today, an eminent former banker

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published a paper arguing These high-denomination banknotes

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are no longer used very much They're used for a tiny

:15:52.:15:57.

percentage of transactions. However, they are the preferred

:15:58.:16:03.

means of payment for criminals, tax evaders, terrorists

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and those who are giving No-one can say

:16:09.:16:10.

they weren't warned. Whereas a million quid in 50 pound

:16:11.:16:17.

notes has the bulk of say, A million quid in euros

:16:18.:16:26.

will be smaller than one. Crime fighters like Europol's Rob

:16:27.:16:29.

Wainright think it's an important issue - as he explained when I sat

:16:30.:16:37.

down with him earlier. Why does anyone need a 500 euro

:16:38.:16:41.

note, given that most of us have I would be surprised

:16:42.:16:44.

if many of the viewers have seen one or done a business

:16:45.:16:48.

transaction in one. To be fair, in some eurozone

:16:49.:16:49.

countries like Germany, there is a different cultural

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background and practise That doesn't explain why,

:16:53.:16:53.

when we are moving to generally a cashless economy, the amount

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of 500 euro notes that have been produced and circulated

:16:59.:17:00.

is still increasing year on year, and accounts for one third

:17:01.:17:03.

of the value of all euro You know, these are big issues

:17:04.:17:05.

to be explained away. You must be a bit annoyed

:17:06.:17:10.

about Luxembourg in particular, I think produced almost

:17:11.:17:16.

twice its GDP in 500 euro That is an extraordinary bit of note

:17:17.:17:19.

issue by Luxembourg. Our report showed that,

:17:20.:17:25.

but across the eurozone as a whole, you know, we didn't really get

:17:26.:17:27.

information that satisfied us as to what the legitimate use was,

:17:28.:17:30.

while we are getting more and more evidence of the way

:17:31.:17:34.

in which criminals are using it in particular, so I think serious

:17:35.:17:38.

questions are being asked. A lot of evidence now,

:17:39.:17:43.

and I hope the European Central Bank will take a long hard

:17:44.:17:46.

look at this issue. It is interesting that we got

:17:47.:17:48.

into this in the first place, though, because it was predicted

:17:49.:17:51.

by some, it was talked about that this was going to be

:17:52.:17:54.

something that would happen, you were creating something much

:17:55.:17:56.

bigger than the 100 dollar bill, which might have been the currency

:17:57.:17:59.

of choice until the euro came along, It is odd that the Europeans allowed

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this to happen. What I am presenting is simply

:18:03.:18:07.

the view from the police world, about how we see this as something

:18:08.:18:13.

that is definitely facilitating criminal,

:18:14.:18:16.

and to a certain extent activity. Terrorism, obviously,

:18:17.:18:20.

a global phenomenon. In Europe there are National Police

:18:21.:18:23.

forces and then Europol sits But you don't have the power

:18:24.:18:26.

to arrest people, do you? No, instead we provide

:18:27.:18:33.

an intelligence gateway that connects over 600 different agencies

:18:34.:18:35.

exchanging intelligence That allows us to track better

:18:36.:18:39.

what is increasingly Britain is in the early stage

:18:40.:18:43.

of a debate about whether it should be in the European Union,

:18:44.:18:49.

and one of the reasons many people don't want to be is they feel

:18:50.:18:52.

there is a creeping pace So you are saying, if we stay in,

:18:53.:18:55.

you do not think it will happen, that we will get a European police

:18:56.:19:00.

force, that British voters will not be able to control

:19:01.:19:03.

or have any sway over? No, we have just reformed Europol

:19:04.:19:08.

and given it a new legal framework and it is not as a European FBI,

:19:09.:19:11.

it is something that is very operational in nature,

:19:12.:19:15.

in terms of giving them tools that the national authorities need

:19:16.:19:17.

to fight fight crime and terrorism. You know, and the current

:19:18.:19:20.

British Government has consciously opted into that new version

:19:21.:19:22.

of European police force - European police cross-border

:19:23.:19:24.

cooperation centre, because it has decided that is what it needs

:19:25.:19:26.

in the face of an increased international threat

:19:27.:19:29.

from terrorism and crime. David Cameron has warned that

:19:30.:19:39.

Britain might lose information on what I think he called

:19:40.:19:41.

"terrorists running round Europe". I think what the Prime Minister's

:19:42.:19:44.

referring to, of course, is the extent to which over the last

:19:45.:19:51.

three or four decades there has developed in Europe a sophisticated

:19:52.:19:55.

architecture for sharing intelligence, and co-operating

:19:56.:19:57.

in the fight against Europol alone, we are helping

:19:58.:19:59.

to co-ordinate 40,000 cases I think if the UK is no

:20:00.:20:06.

longer a member of the UK, it wouldn't have the same access

:20:07.:20:10.

to that well-regulated, I think, therefore, it would make it

:20:11.:20:12.

harder for Britain to fight I am sure Britain can respond

:20:13.:20:18.

with alternative arrangements, but they will be more costly,

:20:19.:20:21.

and they will not be as effective, I think that is probably

:20:22.:20:24.

what the Prime Minister is saying. There has been some talk

:20:25.:20:30.

about the Norwegian model of not The Norwegians, they are not

:20:31.:20:33.

full members of Europol but they have an association

:20:34.:20:36.

agreement with Europol that puts Well, certainly not in the middle,

:20:37.:20:38.

at the periphery, because they are not full members,

:20:39.:20:47.

so they don't have direct access to database in the way the UK

:20:48.:20:49.

currently has, they are not leading any intelligence projects,

:20:50.:20:52.

they don't have people So you know, it's a model

:20:53.:20:54.

of membership, but as I said earlier, certainly not one

:20:55.:20:58.

that is as effective as the one that the UK and other member

:20:59.:21:01.

states currently enjoy. Are you going to be public about how

:21:02.:21:04.

you will vote in the referendum? I think people listening

:21:05.:21:08.

to you will probably draw their own conclusions

:21:09.:21:10.

and believe they know how you will vote, but will you be

:21:11.:21:12.

public, or will you stand back This is not about me,

:21:13.:21:15.

this is about the future of Britain in Europe,

:21:16.:21:20.

and in this particular part of it, about making sure

:21:21.:21:22.

that we have the most secure platform to protect British

:21:23.:21:25.

businesses, and citizens from ever more dangerous threats of terrorism

:21:26.:21:27.

and other forms of serious crime. Of course I will be voting

:21:28.:21:30.

for the UK to remain part of the EU because of what I see on an every

:21:31.:21:34.

day basis about the benefits, and particularly in my world,

:21:35.:21:37.

that the UK is getting from the EU. Rob Wainwright, thanks

:21:38.:21:43.

for your company. You might have thought the Syrian

:21:44.:21:49.

war had reached a kind of stalemate. Well, in the last few days,

:21:50.:21:52.

things have changed. With Russian help, the Assad

:21:53.:21:54.

government has made gains, and it is causing problems

:21:55.:21:56.

for refugees, for Turkey, where they want to escape

:21:57.:21:58.

to and possibly for Europe beyond. Our diplomatic editor, Mark Urban,

:21:59.:22:01.

reports on the changing situation In fighting round Aleppo, Syria's

:22:02.:22:18.

biggest city, President Assad's forces have been making progress.

:22:19.:22:23.

Supported by hundreds of Russian air strikes, they have taken the

:22:24.:22:26.

initiative just as diplomacy has stalled.

:22:27.:22:33.

We saw during the last week, during the last several days they have

:22:34.:22:38.

basically waited to the failure of the negotiation process, I can

:22:39.:22:42.

assume within a certain time period, if the Russians managed to, well, to

:22:43.:22:48.

put enough military pressure on this Saudi supported opposition, and if

:22:49.:22:52.

they agree to launch a negotiation process, probably we will see the

:22:53.:22:55.

intensity of fighting on the ground going down.

:22:56.:22:59.

Since last autumn, the Syrian Army, with Russian air support has been

:23:00.:23:03.

engaging in a multi-pronged offensive. By November, they had

:23:04.:23:07.

broken through to an air base south-east of Aleppo, in January

:23:08.:23:11.

they started making gains in a province and a couple of days ago,

:23:12.:23:17.

cut the rebel corridor into Aleppo. All of this bombing and ground

:23:18.:23:21.

fighting has led hundreds of thousands to leave their homes, some

:23:22.:23:25.

estimates put it as high as three-quarters of a million people,

:23:26.:23:28.

with anything up to ?100,000 thousand moving in the past week.

:23:29.:23:36.

Week. Into an area south of Turkey. That all exacerbates tensions

:23:37.:23:39.

between their Government and Russia. Since the Downing of Russian plane

:23:40.:23:45.

by Turkey, because of its violation of the Turkish airspace last

:23:46.:23:52.

October, the relationship between Ankara and Moscow has become

:23:53.:23:58.

confrontational. So much so, it is now functioning as a dePacteau safe

:23:59.:24:03.

zone against Turkey. That is limiting Turkey's ability to project

:24:04.:24:10.

power across the border. As for how many people are trapped, between

:24:11.:24:13.

advancing pro Assad forces on the Turkish border, it is certainly in

:24:14.:24:19.

the tens of thousands. Turkey has stopped them coming in, caught

:24:20.:24:23.

between this fresh humanitarian crisis, and apprenticeship to stop

:24:24.:24:31.

refugees moving on to Europe. Chancellor Merkel visiting Turkey

:24:32.:24:34.

today, vented her frustration with the Syrian Government, and its

:24:35.:24:40.

Russian backers. TRANSLATION: We are now over the

:24:41.:24:44.

last few days not only appalled by shocked by the human suffering is of

:24:45.:24:48.

tens of thousands of people through bombing attack, and also bombing

:24:49.:24:51.

attacks originating from the Russian side.

:24:52.:24:58.

As to what people are fleeing, the UN panel today reported on gross

:24:59.:25:02.

human rights abuses by all sides in the Syrian conflict. It accused the

:25:03.:25:07.

Government of crimes against humanity and called for sanctions

:25:08.:25:12.

against senior Syrian officials. The mass scale of deaths suggests that

:25:13.:25:19.

the Government of Syria is responsible for acts that amount to

:25:20.:25:23.

crimes against humanity. Turkey may well have to open its border to let

:25:24.:25:28.

in the new wave of refugees, ideas of establishing a safe haven inside

:25:29.:25:32.

Syria long favoured by the Turkish Government now seem to have been

:25:33.:25:37.

forgotten. There is a very real risk that creating that type of buffer

:25:38.:25:42.

zone could spark conflict between Turkey and Russia R We are dealing

:25:43.:25:47.

with two political systems headed by the leaders who sometimes are led

:25:48.:25:52.

not by the logic of the event, not by the pragmatism, but I would say

:25:53.:25:57.

by the way, how they feel, by their passion.

:25:58.:26:03.

There are some, in western foreign defence ministries who privately

:26:04.:26:08.

hope Russia's backing of President Assad might finely brings the Civil

:26:09.:26:12.

War to an end. So far it is up to the suffering without a clear

:26:13.:26:15.

The Daily Mail writer Peter Oborne has just returned from Syria's

:26:16.:26:18.

largest city - or once largest - Aleppo.

:26:19.:26:20.

He's written vividly about the destruction

:26:21.:26:21.

and destitution he found there, and he's with me now.

:26:22.:26:28.

Thank you for coming in. We have some of the photos which we will

:26:29.:26:35.

show awe you speak, but it is amazing you can get in and find a

:26:36.:26:39.

hotel to stay in when you are there Yes, it is a difficult journey from

:26:40.:26:44.

Damascus but they have re-opened the road in. They have lifted the siege

:26:45.:26:49.

of Aleppo, you are able to get in, and there is a hotel called the pull

:26:50.:26:54.

man hotel, freezing cold, very damp, I was the only guest there, apart

:26:55.:27:03.

from a French TV journalist, and no hot water. There is electricity

:27:04.:27:08.

about eight hours a day I reckoned. The internet doesn't work so you are

:27:09.:27:14.

pretty isolated. The population of Aleppo is, it has plummeted. It is

:27:15.:27:17.

less than half what it was. It is shocking. You get a sense of a city

:27:18.:27:25.

where the population has gone, and particularly among the Christians,

:27:26.:27:30.

down from about 200,000, before the crisis, wonderful ancient Christian

:27:31.:27:32.

community going down. We are looking at some of the pictures there. The

:27:33.:27:39.

rubble left. Empty streets. My regime minder took that. I wandered

:27:40.:27:45.

round. The Christian population down from 200,000 to about 20,000. I

:27:46.:27:52.

talked to the pastors, desperate to get their congregations to stay, and

:27:53.:27:56.

the imams desperate to get them to stay but it is very hard. Who has

:27:57.:28:00.

stayed? There are still hundreds of thousands of people in Aleppo, who

:28:01.:28:06.

are they? Almost everybody seems to be a government employee, teachers,

:28:07.:28:12.

lots and lots of refugees, from the east of the city, who fled news a or

:28:13.:28:16.

the Free Syrian Army. They fled the rebels to get into the Government

:28:17.:28:22.

part. Aleppo university, there are 20 great big dormitory block, 17 are

:28:23.:28:28.

full of refugees, ten or 20 to a little room for two people, and I

:28:29.:28:34.

wandered round there. So like Agatha Christie's hotel where she wrote her

:28:35.:28:40.

novel, the Baron Hotel the refugee, they have harrowing stories. You

:28:41.:28:45.

said no basic amenities in your hotel. What about important

:28:46.:28:51.

amenities like drinking water? Yes, there is no water, running water

:28:52.:28:56.

coming into Aleppo. It is the plant has been stopped by Isis, and so

:28:57.:29:03.

what you see everywhere is digging wells, people carting water round,

:29:04.:29:07.

and, it is a huge expense, because you have to buy it from the private

:29:08.:29:11.

sector because state water has gone. You say the siege, it is not under

:29:12.:29:15.

siege, because people think of Aleppo being under siege but it has

:29:16.:29:19.

not. It has been reported widely. What has happened, this is the urn

:29:20.:29:23.

thing point probably of the war s that the Turkish border, the supply

:29:24.:29:28.

line to Isis, news racks, to the Jihadi groups and the FSA has been

:29:29.:29:34.

blocked and it has been encircled by the Syrian army, plus with the great

:29:35.:29:40.

help from the Russian, and so it is alnews a is under siege now, instead

:29:41.:29:46.

of the other way round, and, Aleppo was under siege most of the winner,

:29:47.:29:50.

nobody reported that, you couldn't get in or out from Damascus or

:29:51.:29:55.

anywhere else. Now it is suddenly, the, the opposition forces who are

:29:56.:29:59.

being besieged, that becomes a story, it tells you which side the

:30:00.:30:00.

media has been on. You met an interesting journalist

:30:01.:30:08.

when you were there, tell us his story. Yes a wonderful old boy. I

:30:09.:30:14.

asked, "Where's the newspaper? I was told there's one paper left. There

:30:15.:30:20.

had been 35. This old boy started out in 1960, 35 papers. I went into

:30:21.:30:27.

his office, up some old smelly stairs. He said, his story was, it

:30:28.:30:35.

was a daily paper, flourishing before the war. A weekly paper then,

:30:36.:30:40.

paper shortages. The journalists started to get threatened. They go

:30:41.:30:44.

on the net. There's no internet. Right and they told me they do it

:30:45.:30:49.

through 3 G, that's beyond me. It's a mobile thing. You go there, you

:30:50.:30:55.

see it with your own eyes, we've been hearing about it, in just a few

:30:56.:30:59.

sentences, has it changed your view of anything, your way of looking at

:31:00.:31:06.

the conflict at all? You meet these amazing stories of heroism, for

:31:07.:31:10.

instance, I went to the Education Department. I met this teacher. She

:31:11.:31:16.

spent five days making her journey which before the war had taken 40

:31:17.:31:23.

minutes to get from east Aleppo and, to get her wages. She was going to

:31:24.:31:28.

go back. Isis-held area. She said Syrian forces were advancing and

:31:29.:31:32.

will shortly reach it. She said, "I will be held along with my husband

:31:33.:31:36.

and children as a human shield." And she was going back. The heroism, I

:31:37.:31:41.

felt, just the stoicism and bravery and you're always meeting - the

:31:42.:31:44.

doctors were wonderful in the hospital. You meet these incredible

:31:45.:31:45.

people. Thank you very much. Celebrity endorsement

:31:46.:31:49.

is likely to play some part But what about the endorsements

:31:50.:31:51.

from beyond the grave? A strange battle has opened up

:31:52.:31:56.

on how Margaret Thatcher would vote It was prompted by a piece

:31:57.:31:59.

in the Sunday Times from her former The debate maybe gives us more

:32:00.:32:04.

insight into the opinions of those arguing about it, than of

:32:05.:32:13.

the Iron Lady herself. Our political editor,

:32:14.:32:15.

David Grossman, has been looking Trying to work out what Kier Hardy

:32:16.:32:25.

would have made of Twitter or basha kan castle's view of the Qatar World

:32:26.:32:30.

Cup seems like a dull parlour game. One deceased boll Titian's view of

:32:31.:32:37.

-- politician's view of matters is now sought. If you want to own a bit

:32:38.:32:41.

of Mrs Thatcher history you could worse than this place, her London

:32:42.:32:44.

residence after she left Downing Street. On the market for something

:32:45.:32:49.

like ?30 million. But her political legacy is priceless, worth far more

:32:50.:32:54.

to the remain campaign and leave campaign, each side in the

:32:55.:32:58.

referendum wants to claim that she would have voted their way. Writing

:32:59.:33:03.

in the Sunday Times yesterday, her former advisor suggested she might

:33:04.:33:07.

have raged more mightily during the negotiations than David Cameron, but

:33:08.:33:10.

ultimately she would have gone along with what is on offer, indeed

:33:11.:33:14.

negotiated something similar herself in. Reply, Lord young, who served in

:33:15.:33:19.

Mrs Thatcher's Cabinet said, "If Margaret were with us today she may

:33:20.:33:27.

not lead Brexit, she may cajole the campaign leaders to get their act

:33:28.:33:30.

together and when the day came would vote out." So what's the truth? Who

:33:31.:33:36.

better to adjudicate than the man she chose to write her story. As her

:33:37.:33:41.

biographer, I always make sure never to say what Margaret Thatcher would

:33:42.:33:44.

have done because I don't know. What I do know is what she did do. It's

:33:45.:33:48.

interesting that people want to raise this question all the time. I

:33:49.:33:54.

understand why. Because she went on a long journey about Europe, which

:33:55.:34:00.

had many rocky places and pit falls. She learned a lot. She changed her

:34:01.:34:06.

mind quite a lot. The starting point of that journey found form in

:34:07.:34:11.

knitwear, campaigning here in 1975 for Britain to stay in what was then

:34:12.:34:16.

the European economic community. It's very fitting that you should

:34:17.:34:21.

keep an all-night vigil, under the statue of Sir Winston Churchill, the

:34:22.:34:26.

first person to have the great vision of working together for peace

:34:27.:34:33.

in Europe. But as the European project became more about political

:34:34.:34:38.

union and pooled sovereignty, Margaret Thatcher famously resisted.

:34:39.:34:46.

No, no, no. She came very much to dislike European methods of doing

:34:47.:34:49.

business. She thought this is a male club. This is a load of men having

:34:50.:34:54.

dinner to decide everything, the fate of the people. You don't know

:34:55.:34:58.

what department she is. I tell you, you don't know what department she

:34:59.:35:04.

is. Her lecture before the first course, caused some surprise... I

:35:05.:35:09.

made mistakes and I learned to fight. And I win. She became opposed

:35:10.:35:19.

to the single currency and advocated a wider and looser European Union,

:35:20.:35:25.

incorporating the newly emancipated Eastern Bloc countries. She never

:35:26.:35:29.

advocated leaving the European Community as it was then, the whole

:35:30.:35:33.

time she was in office. She did advocate that after she left office,

:35:34.:35:37.

only privately. She said it to me, for example, and to many others. She

:35:38.:35:41.

was advised that at that stage of her career, it would be too

:35:42.:35:45.

explosive and difficult and she was too old and not terribly well and

:35:46.:35:49.

all that sort of thing, it was really too late. But this is what

:35:50.:35:53.

she came to believe. That contrasts between how she felt in office and

:35:54.:35:59.

how she felt after retiring is an interesting one. Why does this

:36:00.:36:04.

matter in in the crowd to wave off Margaret Thatcher from central

:36:05.:36:08.

office on her last visit as PM was a young David Cameron. He cheered her

:36:09.:36:14.

enthusiastically then. But plenty of his party's activists and supporters

:36:15.:36:18.

now still trust her instincts on Europe more than his. So summoning

:36:19.:36:23.

up a Thatcher endorsement for his deal would be precious indeed.

:36:24.:36:28.

With me now are Lord Powell, private secretary and advisor

:36:29.:36:31.

on foreign affairs and defense to Margaret Thatcher from 1983-91,

:36:32.:36:36.

and Annunziata Rees-Mogg, a Eurosceptic and Conservative Party

:36:37.:36:39.

Good evening. Some have criticised you for Daning to say what she would

:36:40.:36:53.

have thought when none of us really know. You have to admit, none of us

:36:54.:36:58.

knows. Anyone bothered to read my article, the third sentence says,

:36:59.:37:02.

"we can't possibly know" it's not as though I didn't realise that. A

:37:03.:37:06.

Cabinet minister said to me, look, I can't go along with this. Margaret

:37:07.:37:09.

Thatcher would never have agrowed to it. That made me sit down and think.

:37:10.:37:13.

I'm in the a member of any campaign. I'm not for, against. I'm not a

:37:14.:37:17.

political party member. I just thought about. It I thought about

:37:18.:37:21.

her history in Europe. Much of it came out in your film. She was in

:37:22.:37:25.

the Government that took us into Europe. She led the Conservative

:37:26.:37:31.

Party campaign to stay in Europe at the last referendum. She could have

:37:32.:37:35.

decided then we should come out. No, she was enthusiastic, in favour. For

:37:36.:37:40.

12 years as Prime Minister she fought, by God how she fought, to

:37:41.:37:43.

get advantages for Britain in Europe and change Europe in ways that

:37:44.:37:47.

suited Britain. It's not really very surprising that one thinks that

:37:48.:37:50.

maybe she would opt to stay in Europe and go on trying to change it

:37:51.:37:54.

for the better. For the record, are you going to vote or support the

:37:55.:37:57.

remain side in the campaign? I don't know. I will see what's on offer. I

:37:58.:38:05.

had assumed you were really learning your opinion of the referendum.

:38:06.:38:08.

No-one's interested in my opinion, but I thought they might be

:38:09.:38:10.

interested in what might be Margaret Thatcher's. Do you buy what we've

:38:11.:38:14.

just heard? I don't think we can know. I agrow

:38:15.:38:16.

just heard? I don't think we can sentence, I don't think we should

:38:17.:38:20.

invoke the dead, whether it's Churchill, Maggie Thatcher or other

:38:21.:38:23.

wonderful politicians in this country or on the other side if you

:38:24.:38:28.

want to invoke that Hitler wanted a united Europe. These are ridiculous

:38:29.:38:32.

things that we just can't know. How should she have voted? Let's think

:38:33.:38:38.

of Thatcherism as an ethos, not just what she thought, how should a

:38:39.:38:43.

Thatcherite vote? In my view of Thatcher's legacy is to believe this

:38:44.:38:47.

the sovereignty of our nation and the freedom of the individual. And

:38:48.:38:52.

to believe incredibly strongly in democracy. In my view, you cannot

:38:53.:39:00.

have democracy without a demos and Europe has no dome hose to back up a

:39:01.:39:04.

democracy. We have to lock out for our own nation and have this

:39:05.:39:08.

referendum where one man, one vote and see what the result S A couple

:39:09.:39:14.

of comments, I think you're being a little severe. We frequently cite

:39:15.:39:20.

19th century politician's views on foreign policy issues. We cite

:39:21.:39:27.

Canning... We saw Mr Thatcher invoking... It's totally

:39:28.:39:33.

permissible. I think quoting someone and speculating as to what they

:39:34.:39:37.

would do in different situations are two very different things. In some

:39:38.:39:41.

ways isn't it interesting, because if you see the EU as a free trade

:39:42.:39:50.

thing, with a lot of what people, Thatcher's disposition would say is

:39:51.:39:54.

annoying baggage, but free trade thing. Or you might see it as a lot

:39:55.:39:59.

of annoying baggage with a bit of free trade. Is that the schism

:40:00.:40:03.

between different this afternoonerites? I think it's --

:40:04.:40:08.

Thatcherites. I think it's more pernicious. It's a lack of

:40:09.:40:13.

democratic answerability. It's a superpower trying to control our

:40:14.:40:17.

nation. It's removing our freedom to control our borders, ultimately it

:40:18.:40:22.

will remove our controls on our own financial systems and the ever

:40:23.:40:25.

closer union has not been removed from the treaties under this

:40:26.:40:29.

renegotiation. It is there and that's the direction Europe will be

:40:30.:40:33.

heading. I think Margaret Thatcher saw being in Europe largely as

:40:34.:40:37.

strategic terms. Particularly at a time when we were threatened by the

:40:38.:40:41.

Soviet Union. She believed in drawing together the European

:40:42.:40:46.

countries. Of course in Nato for defence purposes, but in EU to be

:40:47.:40:50.

sure we didn't go to war with each other again in the future and we

:40:51.:40:54.

were a solid block. That was a sensible thing to add to the trade

:40:55.:40:58.

aspect of. It she saw it as an organisation which produced specific

:40:59.:41:01.

advantages for Britain. She would now, I believe, see that we have

:41:02.:41:07.

managed to get out of so many of the unpleasant bits of Europe, the

:41:08.:41:10.

things that you object to. You know, we are not in the single currency.

:41:11.:41:16.

We are not in the Schengen union. We are only about half members any way.

:41:17.:41:21.

Why such a great objection to being semidetached members. Can I ask a

:41:22.:41:26.

quick question on the issue of, could there be a British

:41:27.:41:28.

Parliamentary block on issues coming out of the EU. Boris Johnson seems

:41:29.:41:33.

behind that. Does that work? I don't believe it can work, no. It's a

:41:34.:41:38.

chalice that the faithful have sought for a long time. The fact is,

:41:39.:41:42.

if we reach agreements, they are international agreements, they're

:41:43.:41:44.

binding agreements, they're registered with the UN. Sadly, I

:41:45.:41:49.

think in terms of law, then - You can't pick and choose. Parliament

:41:50.:41:54.

remains supreme. They could denounce the treaty and we could exit. You

:41:55.:41:58.

can't have bits of it. Thank you both very much.

:41:59.:42:08.

James O'Brien is here tomorrow. Until then, very good night.

:42:09.:42:10.

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