Browse content similar to 29/03/2016. Check below for episodes and series from the same categories and more!
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Shocking news for the steel industry tonight. | :00:00. | :00:00. | |
Rather than invest new money, as some had hoped, Tata Steel | :00:07. | :00:09. | |
reportedly wants to sell its UK operations. | :00:10. | :00:15. | |
In Port Talbot, the news is just sinking in. | :00:16. | :00:17. | |
We'll ask what future steel has in Britain. | :00:18. | :00:23. | |
Is it time to take the propaganda seriously? | :00:24. | :00:35. | |
We look at the evidence that North Korea is further down | :00:36. | :00:38. | |
the nuclear path than we thought - a bigger threat than we feared. | :00:39. | :00:44. | |
Harvey Proctor on his ordeal at the hands of the Met Police | :00:45. | :00:59. | |
Is there any good reason that in a rich country | :01:00. | :01:13. | |
Bitterly sad news breaking tonight for workers in the British | :01:14. | :01:27. | |
It's not official, but it appears that Tata Steel - | :01:28. | :01:32. | |
the company that is the successor to the old British Steel Corporation, | :01:33. | :01:36. | |
which then became Corus - is said to want to sell | :01:37. | :01:39. | |
The decision was reported out of a make or break meeting in Mumbai | :01:40. | :01:46. | |
and among the assets being sold, the Port Talbot plant, | :01:47. | :01:48. | |
which plays such an important part in the economic life in south | :01:49. | :01:52. | |
Thousands more are employed elsewhere in the country, of course. | :01:53. | :01:59. | |
The fear is that if no one wants to buy the assets, | :02:00. | :02:01. | |
and they are losing hundreds of millions of pounds a year, | :02:02. | :02:04. | |
Stephen Kinnock is the MP for the area and as with the delegation in | :02:05. | :02:17. | |
Mumbai and has been given his reaction. The board of Tata Steel is | :02:18. | :02:24. | |
not going to back the turnaround plan. That was presented to them. | :02:25. | :02:31. | |
And they have asked their European board to look at all of the options | :02:32. | :02:37. | |
for the future of the business and we then await the outcome of that. | :02:38. | :02:44. | |
Clearly, one of those options is to look at looking for a buyer, an | :02:45. | :02:46. | |
alternative buyer for the business. Simon Jack is the BBC's business | :02:47. | :02:49. | |
editor and he joins me now Let us go through the best and worst | :02:50. | :03:02. | |
scenarios, the best case tonight, what is the most optimistic it can | :03:03. | :03:08. | |
be? The news that came out of Mumbai this evening in the last hour, we | :03:09. | :03:14. | |
had this flurry of briefings and the deal they hoped to get done, but | :03:15. | :03:19. | |
turnaround plan that would have seen Tata investing extra money as | :03:20. | :03:23. | |
turning hundreds of millions of losses every year into a profit | :03:24. | :03:27. | |
within two years, that was rejected. That is undoubtedly a big set back | :03:28. | :03:34. | |
and the options were talking about is the sale of all the remaining | :03:35. | :03:38. | |
businesses here the UK, they are already selling some of them but the | :03:39. | :03:43. | |
long products business that Port Talbot performs the hub of would-be | :03:44. | :03:48. | |
opera sale but whoever would want to buy a plant that is losing ?1 | :03:49. | :03:54. | |
million every day? When I spoke to the company they did not confirm it | :03:55. | :03:58. | |
was up for sale but they did steer me in the direction of some of the | :03:59. | :04:02. | |
other was Mrs which has shown an interest in the steel industry in | :04:03. | :04:06. | |
this country, businesses like the liberty group, who have been in the | :04:07. | :04:13. | |
process of buying some from the owners and grey ball capital, in the | :04:14. | :04:19. | |
process of buying some of the business in Scunthorpe. They floated | :04:20. | :04:22. | |
some of those names and there might well be a process and there is some | :04:23. | :04:28. | |
scepticism. Liberty, whether they would want to take on something like | :04:29. | :04:31. | |
this, but there must be some glimmer of hope but this is not the answer | :04:32. | :04:37. | |
that unions and management wanted. The nightmare scenario is that | :04:38. | :04:41. | |
companies like that might say they will have a little bit here and | :04:42. | :04:45. | |
there but they do not want the bulk of the business, it is losing money, | :04:46. | :04:52. | |
and Tata cannot make this work and if nobody buys this, we'll Tata tell | :04:53. | :04:59. | |
us what the plan is? To shut it down or what? They will not tell us what | :05:00. | :05:08. | |
the other planners. -- plan is. It is impossible to imagine that | :05:09. | :05:11. | |
somebody could take over the business losing as much money as | :05:12. | :05:13. | |
this and turn it around without major structural changes and job | :05:14. | :05:18. | |
losses so there is uncertainty for the thousands of workers, many of | :05:19. | :05:23. | |
whom whose jobs are still at risk and the government is making noises | :05:24. | :05:26. | |
about looking at viable options but there does not seem to be that many | :05:27. | :05:31. | |
viable options on the table, this sale is pretty much the last chance | :05:32. | :05:38. | |
saloon. Simon, thank you. We will speak to somebody who works at the | :05:39. | :05:42. | |
steel Talbot -- steel plant in Port Talbot. First, Angela Eagle. Simon | :05:43. | :05:49. | |
is looking at the options, can you think of any the government at this | :05:50. | :05:56. | |
point can look at? The steel industry is cyclical and at the | :05:57. | :06:01. | |
moment we're in the middle of a perfect storm. Clearly, you have to | :06:02. | :06:06. | |
try about what you can do about sheltering assets in the industry | :06:07. | :06:11. | |
until this storm passes so you can keep a capacity as a country to keep | :06:12. | :06:17. | |
creating and making your own steel, which is fundamental to the | :06:18. | :06:20. | |
manufacturing industry. 20,000 people are directly employed in UK | :06:21. | :06:24. | |
steel at the moment and many more are in the supply industries and the | :06:25. | :06:29. | |
government should be pulling out all of the stops to make certain that we | :06:30. | :06:35. | |
can preserve our capacity to make steel. One of the options is the | :06:36. | :06:40. | |
government was simply by the industry for some notional amount, | :06:41. | :06:47. | |
from Tata Steel, pick up the assets and become the Steward of those | :06:48. | :06:51. | |
assets until the point at which it can sell them, effectively | :06:52. | :07:01. | |
nationalisation. This has been done in other instances before and we do | :07:02. | :07:08. | |
know that the assets you have in a steel-making plant have to be | :07:09. | :07:12. | |
properly looked after or they will be lost forever, which is what we | :07:13. | :07:16. | |
saw with the government letting the Redcar blast furnace be destroyed by | :07:17. | :07:23. | |
inaction and it would be vandalism if they do that in this case. I do | :07:24. | :07:30. | |
not want to get into Brexit at this point but this may come to bear on | :07:31. | :07:34. | |
this but if the government did pick up this company and hold the assets, | :07:35. | :07:41. | |
do their run foul of EU state aid regulations? There are ways in which | :07:42. | :07:48. | |
you can ensure that you protect assets in this way and can negotiate | :07:49. | :07:54. | |
with the -- with the EU and it is a bit much for those using... And all | :07:55. | :08:03. | |
of the distress in the community is wondering what will happen to their | :08:04. | :08:10. | |
future, in Port Talbot or Rotherham or South Yorkshire or parts of | :08:11. | :08:16. | |
Scotland. We have to try to get the government to actually deliver on | :08:17. | :08:22. | |
assertions from the Prime Minister that they want to preserve our | :08:23. | :08:27. | |
capacity to make steel in this country and if not, we will see this | :08:28. | :08:32. | |
Tonight at the Games said that the ant hypocrisy. -- this tea and | :08:33. | :08:39. | |
sympathy. You do believe that steel has potential in this country? Yes, | :08:40. | :08:46. | |
it is a foundation industry, we're on the cusp of huge investment in | :08:47. | :08:53. | |
our own infrastructure and steel is a strategic industry for defence | :08:54. | :08:56. | |
purposes and energy and every look at what is happening with you clear | :08:57. | :09:02. | |
building, we have to preserve that and it will pay for itself in the | :09:03. | :09:03. | |
end. Thank you. Joining me now from Port Talbot | :09:04. | :09:07. | |
is Tony Taylor, who worked at the steel plant there for 44 | :09:08. | :09:10. | |
years and is now a councillor. What is your reaction to this news? | :09:11. | :09:20. | |
It is unofficial but what is your reaction? I think some partial shock | :09:21. | :09:31. | |
because we did not expect this today, we thought that Tata would | :09:32. | :09:37. | |
get behind us and support the rescue plan and keep the faith at Port | :09:38. | :09:42. | |
Talbot. Tata Steel have been marvellous players and have invested | :09:43. | :09:45. | |
a lot of money in this plant and they have come to the end of their | :09:46. | :09:48. | |
patients but just a little longer would have kept us in good stead and | :09:49. | :09:52. | |
we hopefully could have kept this plant open for future generations. I | :09:53. | :09:58. | |
am not saying we cannot do this, it could be a viable plan to some time | :09:59. | :10:05. | |
in the future. Tony, who do you blame for the difficulties in the | :10:06. | :10:10. | |
British steel industry, and they are not unique to Britain. But very | :10:11. | :10:18. | |
intense difficulties in the UK? You have to look at the dumping of | :10:19. | :10:22. | |
Chinese steel. They have been producing hundreds of millions of | :10:23. | :10:28. | |
tonnes and virtually giving it away. We are unable to withstand that | :10:29. | :10:36. | |
because we have been protecting the industry, protecting livelihoods and | :10:37. | :10:41. | |
local jobs and that is one part of this. The heavy energy crisis, the | :10:42. | :10:47. | |
plant behind me, it uses the same amount of energy as a city the size | :10:48. | :10:51. | |
of Bristol or Cardiff, you can imagine the costs to pay for all of | :10:52. | :10:57. | |
that so we have not been helped by the local government, the Welsh | :10:58. | :11:02. | |
Government, the national government... Tony, thank you. | :11:03. | :11:08. | |
What North Korea wants is a small nuclear device that can fit on a big | :11:09. | :11:11. | |
missile - a ballistic missile that can exit the atmosphere, | :11:12. | :11:15. | |
and then successfully re-enter and detonate its cargo almost | :11:16. | :11:17. | |
If it has that, no-one will make fun of North Korea | :11:18. | :11:25. | |
So how close is the country, to getting that technology? | :11:26. | :11:29. | |
We all know there have been nuclear tests and the claim of a hydrogen | :11:30. | :11:33. | |
bomb, but not the holy grail of a small device | :11:34. | :11:36. | |
Now, Newsnight has had first sight of a new account of the North Korean | :11:37. | :11:42. | |
nuclear programme from the respected defence analysts at IHS Jane's. | :11:43. | :11:44. | |
They think it's possible the North does have a miniature device | :11:45. | :11:46. | |
Newsnight has been told that North Korea is closer than thought | :11:47. | :11:59. | |
to creating a nuclear device small enough to fit | :12:00. | :12:02. | |
in to an intercontinental ballistic missile capable of hitting the US. | :12:03. | :12:07. | |
New images and analysis obtained by Newsnight suggest that | :12:08. | :12:11. | |
North Korea's nuclear programme may already have | :12:12. | :12:13. | |
In recent weeks there has been a huge amount of rhetoric coming | :12:14. | :12:21. | |
from North Korea, including a threat to directly attack | :12:22. | :12:23. | |
To do that they would need to use an intercontinental ballistic | :12:24. | :12:28. | |
missile, armed with a nuclear warhead. | :12:29. | :12:30. | |
And there are huge challenges to that. | :12:31. | :12:34. | |
But information given to Newsnight exclusively suggests they may be | :12:35. | :12:37. | |
Analysts have carried out computer modelling based on this news report | :12:38. | :12:46. | |
of Kim Jong-un visiting what is supposed to be a missile | :12:47. | :12:48. | |
These images probably show mock-ups but the defence intelligence company | :12:49. | :12:55. | |
IHS Jane's says there are sufficient details in the background to assess | :12:56. | :12:59. | |
The crucial issues are, can they militarise a nuclear | :13:00. | :13:10. | |
warhead and can they design what is known as a re-entry vehicle? | :13:11. | :13:13. | |
The part of the missile that comes back into the atmosphere before | :13:14. | :13:16. | |
If that is not designed correctly, it would simply burn up. | :13:17. | :13:21. | |
I spoke to Rob Monks, the IHS Jane's expert who has | :13:22. | :13:23. | |
collated the work of analysts based in the US. | :13:24. | :13:29. | |
They have now done the computer modelling to calculate the static | :13:30. | :13:32. | |
margin, which is basically the aerodynamic stability. | :13:33. | :13:33. | |
And from that they have concluded that the North Koreans have both | :13:34. | :13:39. | |
reduced the size and weight of a nuclear explosive device | :13:40. | :13:44. | |
sufficiently to fit it inside a re-entry vehicle. | :13:45. | :13:46. | |
And indeed that the design of the re-entry vehicle itself | :13:47. | :13:50. | |
according to the computer modelling would appear to be viable. | :13:51. | :13:52. | |
The second strand of evidence comes from satellites, | :13:53. | :13:55. | |
radar images showing new roads and earthworks which could indicate | :13:56. | :13:57. | |
We have used radar imagery for the first time to have a look | :13:58. | :14:06. | |
Associated with the North Korean nuclear programme. | :14:07. | :14:08. | |
And that appears to suggest there has actually been increased | :14:09. | :14:11. | |
activity where media reporting suggested diminished activity. | :14:12. | :14:15. | |
The third strand of evidence is a satellite image of a plutonium | :14:16. | :14:18. | |
reprocessing facility that shows increased activity over | :14:19. | :14:21. | |
North Korea is determined to keep working on this, so the effort | :14:22. | :14:27. | |
And it provides some measure of how far they may be getting to the final | :14:28. | :14:38. | |
goal of an intercontinental missile armed | :14:39. | :14:39. | |
And so it would suggest they are getting closer to that. | :14:40. | :14:47. | |
But North Korea already has the capability to mount a nuclear | :14:48. | :14:49. | |
So the instability of their current leader may be the real threat | :14:50. | :14:56. | |
I spoke to one source tonight who has got close knowledge | :14:57. | :15:04. | |
of inside thinking at MI6 and he said that beyond these | :15:05. | :15:07. | |
technical issues, the key factor is the assessment of | :15:08. | :15:09. | |
Is he crazy enough to launch an unprovoked attack? | :15:10. | :15:16. | |
The new images and analysis from IHS Jane's suggests North Korea | :15:17. | :15:19. | |
is getting closer to its ambition of a nuclear armed intercontinental | :15:20. | :15:23. | |
Probably some way off that yet, my intelligence source tells me | :15:24. | :15:32. | |
that the role of China in restraining the leader | :15:33. | :15:34. | |
The intent and increasingly the capability, it seems, is there. | :15:35. | :15:43. | |
Joining me now is John Everard, former British ambassador to North | :15:44. | :15:46. | |
And from New York, Richard Haass, former director of policy planning | :15:47. | :15:49. | |
for the State Department, and currently president | :15:50. | :15:51. | |
To start with a direct question. Who would you do no sleepover, Isis or | :15:52. | :16:08. | |
North Korea at this point? At this point it is North Korea and over the | :16:09. | :16:12. | |
next few years certainly that concern will grow. It is not geared | :16:13. | :16:17. | |
to me that the US will find it tolerable to live in a situation | :16:18. | :16:21. | |
where North Korea as you discussed, can put a small nuclear warhead on | :16:22. | :16:26. | |
ballistic missile but could reach the western part of the US. Also | :16:27. | :16:31. | |
concern that Isis and North Korea could do something together, how do | :16:32. | :16:35. | |
we know North Korea under some circumstances would not make nuclear | :16:36. | :16:41. | |
material available to a group like Isis for a considerable amount of | :16:42. | :16:44. | |
currency. Again raises fundamental questions about whether this could | :16:45. | :16:48. | |
or should all would be rather a tolerable to the next American | :16:49. | :16:53. | |
president. Kim Jong-un is not the normal leader. Do you think he would | :16:54. | :16:59. | |
ever contemplate using a nuclear weapon? I do. I think there is an | :17:00. | :17:05. | |
assumption that seems to be growing but North Korea would never actually | :17:06. | :17:08. | |
use its nuclear weapons for fear of the devastating counterattack. I | :17:09. | :17:12. | |
think that assumption is dangerous. The North Koreans have made quite a | :17:13. | :17:16. | |
few statements about the circumstances in which they would | :17:17. | :17:18. | |
use their nuclear weapons. Which amount to what you might call a hair | :17:19. | :17:23. | |
trigger policy. That they know they face of all the superiority by US | :17:24. | :17:32. | |
allies and they say if provoked they would use nuclear weapon. That is | :17:33. | :17:37. | |
very scary, basically they have got nuclear weapons and may get to the | :17:38. | :17:43. | |
small nuclear device on the ballistic missile. It is scary, | :17:44. | :17:47. | |
probably better not yet a weapon they can deliver over a long | :17:48. | :17:51. | |
distance at their moving swiftly in that direction. Do you agree that | :17:52. | :17:56. | |
they would contemplate using them because presumably they are the most | :17:57. | :17:59. | |
likely user of a nuclear weapon on the planet at the moment. The answer | :18:00. | :18:04. | |
is we do not know. Why would we want to run the risk question mark this | :18:05. | :18:10. | |
country has committed slow motion genocide against its own people so | :18:11. | :18:13. | |
it is quite possible the threat of retaliation does not discourage them | :18:14. | :18:17. | |
or deter them. They are as bellicose and as armed regime that exists in | :18:18. | :18:23. | |
the world so it is not obvious to me while we would want to run the risk. | :18:24. | :18:26. | |
And I look at China, at South Korea and Japan, at my own country the US, | :18:27. | :18:31. | |
we all allowed this situation to drift. These negotiations have done | :18:32. | :18:36. | |
little except to give North Korea time to make the advances you have | :18:37. | :18:41. | |
just discussed. And I do think at some point sooner rather than later | :18:42. | :18:45. | |
the policy question will arise, are we prepared to live with this risk | :18:46. | :18:50. | |
and this uncertainty or would it be better to do something about it. | :18:51. | :18:58. | |
Then you put economic pressure on North Korea or contemplate some kind | :18:59. | :19:04. | |
of military strike, be it a preventative military attack or if | :19:05. | :19:08. | |
we ever get intelligence that North Korea for example has taken some | :19:09. | :19:11. | |
missiles and seems to be leading them for launch, that we would | :19:12. | :19:16. | |
launch ourselves. These are all worrisome scenarios. Why would | :19:17. | :19:20. | |
anyone want to trust the judgment of the leadership of North Korea? What | :19:21. | :19:26. | |
to think of the analysis? Most of it I agree with. It is important to | :19:27. | :19:30. | |
understand, when you talk about trusting the judgment of the leader | :19:31. | :19:33. | |
of North Korea, these people are not crazy. They calculate carefully but | :19:34. | :19:37. | |
they play a different set of rules to the rest of us. But then the | :19:38. | :19:42. | |
dignity of the regime is supreme. And we cannot be sure they're not | :19:43. | :19:47. | |
prepared to risk nuclear war in defence of what they believe, | :19:48. | :19:54. | |
however strange it may seem to us. We think there will be a big | :19:55. | :19:58. | |
congress in North Korea in the month of May, the coronation of Kim | :19:59. | :20:06. | |
Jong-un. Up until then they cannot afford to show weakness and we can | :20:07. | :20:09. | |
expect to see more provocations, more missile launchers and more | :20:10. | :20:11. | |
difficult actions by North Korea in that time. Worrisome conversation. | :20:12. | :20:14. | |
Thank you both. Having heartily showered our faces | :20:15. | :20:17. | |
in eggs last year, you might think we'd run a million miles | :20:18. | :20:20. | |
from opinion polls in the run up But hey, we just | :20:21. | :20:23. | |
can't help ourselves. So let's think about the referendum | :20:24. | :20:25. | |
polls for the next few minutes, because there is a rather | :20:26. | :20:28. | |
interesting feature of them. The phone polls indicate the Remain | :20:29. | :20:30. | |
side is in the lead, the internet | :20:31. | :20:33. | |
polls make it too close to call. If you want to predict the result, | :20:34. | :20:42. | |
it could all hinge on which of those Our Policy Editor Chris Cook has had | :20:43. | :20:46. | |
an exclusive look at a piece of work by Populus, a pollster, | :20:47. | :20:52. | |
and Matt Singh, an analyst who - almost uniquely - called the last | :20:53. | :20:55. | |
general election correctly. Pollsters do not make money from | :20:56. | :21:05. | |
politics but it is where their biggest problems come from. In 2015, | :21:06. | :21:12. | |
1982, 1970. But a new report out tonight Casa big question on how the | :21:13. | :21:17. | |
industry built samples for opinion polls. | :21:18. | :21:24. | |
This has become a pressing issue because of the European referendum. | :21:25. | :21:28. | |
Pollsters have got to get into our homes, into our heads and work out | :21:29. | :21:33. | |
what we're inking about this rather unusual question. They have got a | :21:34. | :21:37. | |
mystery to solve. When they poll people online they seem to get one | :21:38. | :21:40. | |
set of answers from British people and when they pull them by telephone | :21:41. | :21:47. | |
they seem to be getting another. Populous work for the Conservatives | :21:48. | :21:51. | |
and the Leave campaign and they commissioned an outside analysts to | :21:52. | :21:55. | |
help them work out what was going on. | :21:56. | :21:55. | |
Now as part of this research Populus conducted a number of polls. | :21:56. | :21:58. | |
For example they did what you might call | :21:59. | :22:00. | |
That found that Leave was six points ahead. | :22:01. | :22:03. | |
They also did what you might call the classic telephone poll | :22:04. | :22:06. | |
and that found that Remain was 11 points ahead. | :22:07. | :22:09. | |
So a massive 16 percentage points gap that gives different | :22:10. | :22:12. | |
The report works out things by asking the same question to the two | :22:13. | :22:26. | |
routes and comparing the answers and back in fact -- by comparison to the | :22:27. | :22:29. | |
British election study, a unique bowl quite unlike any other full | :22:30. | :22:33. | |
stop high quality face-to-face samples of the best we have in | :22:34. | :22:36. | |
survey research for two main reasons. One example from postcode | :22:37. | :22:42. | |
address files and randomly dealt within households so pretty much | :22:43. | :22:44. | |
everyone has the chance to be included in the sample. Then they | :22:45. | :22:51. | |
also make extra effort to do with beaded call-backs if people are out | :22:52. | :22:54. | |
or try to persuade them to participate and get response rates | :22:55. | :22:59. | |
which are quite high. The independent researcher on the | :23:00. | :23:02. | |
project was Matt sing, the analyst behind number cruncher policies. It | :23:03. | :23:08. | |
finds that the importance of online polls offer I do not know optional | :23:09. | :23:11. | |
front whereas the telephone polls do not. A section of voters if prompted | :23:12. | :23:17. | |
with a do not know optional, they will tend to say do not know. In | :23:18. | :23:20. | |
reality they do not seem to be undecided because if they are not | :23:21. | :23:24. | |
wanted with the do not know optional, they go but heavily | :23:25. | :23:30. | |
towards Leave. So from that we take that the effect of adding a do not | :23:31. | :23:33. | |
know optional on the online poll that is not there on the ballot | :23:34. | :23:36. | |
paper tends to increase the level of do not know heavily at the expense | :23:37. | :23:41. | |
of Remain. That explains around one third of the gap between telephone | :23:42. | :23:44. | |
and online polls. Now a major issue identified | :23:45. | :23:46. | |
by this research is with That is how pollsters | :23:47. | :23:48. | |
select respondents and Now if we go back to that gold | :23:49. | :23:51. | |
standard British elections studies survey that we mentioned earlier, | :23:52. | :23:55. | |
we find around 32% of British people think racial equality has | :23:56. | :23:58. | |
not gone far enough. And if we ask people the same | :23:59. | :24:01. | |
question in an online poll, If we asked them on the phone poll, | :24:02. | :24:04. | |
around 40% of people think that. So you can see from those answers | :24:05. | :24:11. | |
that phone polls are a bit more liberal, if you like, | :24:12. | :24:14. | |
than the national average and online polls are a bit more | :24:15. | :24:16. | |
socially conservative. When you adjust the samples so that | :24:17. | :24:30. | |
answers to these kind of questions matched the British election survey, | :24:31. | :24:33. | |
half of the gap between online polls and telephone poles disappears. | :24:34. | :24:35. | |
So we have a 16 percentage point gap between the two sorts of polls | :24:36. | :24:38. | |
First of all, the different treatment of don't knows, | :24:39. | :24:43. | |
that adds around five percentage points to the gap. | :24:44. | :24:47. | |
The fact there are too many conservatives in the samples built | :24:48. | :24:49. | |
by online pollsters, that adds around three percentage | :24:50. | :24:51. | |
The fact there are too many liberals in the samples built | :24:52. | :24:56. | |
by phone pollsters, that adds around five percentage points to the gap. | :24:57. | :25:00. | |
There are still three percentage points we cannot account | :25:01. | :25:03. | |
for but you can see from this, this research indicates | :25:04. | :25:05. | |
that the right answer as far as we can tell might be a bit closer | :25:06. | :25:13. | |
to the phone pollsters than it is to the online pollsters. | :25:14. | :25:17. | |
It appears that the online polls are too much towards Leave and telephone | :25:18. | :25:26. | |
1's a bit too much towards Remain. From the work we have done it | :25:27. | :25:28. | |
appears that the truth is probably between the two but closer to what | :25:29. | :25:33. | |
the telephone ones are saying. To put numbers on it we would say about | :25:34. | :25:40. | |
two thirds of the way towards phone opinion polls. We will know who is | :25:41. | :25:44. | |
right until the votes are counted and China will determine much of | :25:45. | :25:48. | |
that. In the short term we can say things look a bit better for Remain | :25:49. | :25:51. | |
then a crude average of the polls would suggest. And in the medium | :25:52. | :25:55. | |
term the pollsters need to start thinking about how they will | :25:56. | :25:56. | |
samples. Harvey Proctor - former Tory MP - | :25:57. | :25:59. | |
has had a traumatic 18 months. He was investigated | :26:00. | :26:02. | |
in Operation Midland, never charged or arrested | :26:03. | :26:04. | |
but investigated for murder, torture and historic sexual | :26:05. | :26:07. | |
abuse of young boys. All on the basis of the testimony | :26:08. | :26:11. | |
of one man, known as Nick. Well, Operation Midland has closed, | :26:12. | :26:14. | |
Mr Proctor has no case to answer and has written a book of his life | :26:15. | :26:19. | |
and his recent experience. He joins me now. You have placed a | :26:20. | :26:33. | |
copy of the book on the table. We spoke about this case in August | :26:34. | :26:37. | |
before you were told there was to be no charge. At the time you called it | :26:38. | :26:42. | |
a homosexual witchhunt. I wonder now it is past, do you still see it that | :26:43. | :26:48. | |
way? The following day, someone contacted my solicitor and | :26:49. | :26:54. | |
reinforced what I had said on your programme. It is in the book, I will | :26:55. | :27:00. | |
not go into details tonight, but I do think that certain elements of | :27:01. | :27:05. | |
the Metropolitan Police are homophobic. They have been other | :27:06. | :27:10. | |
people obviously who have been through the mill but you have been | :27:11. | :27:14. | |
through. Who are not gay and have not, no one has ever suggested they | :27:15. | :27:18. | |
are and I wonder whether a better or different way to look at it is just | :27:19. | :27:22. | |
that the police did not use to take these things seriously and now have | :27:23. | :27:26. | |
thought, by goodness, we've got to take these things more seriously and | :27:27. | :27:29. | |
perhaps gone off in the other direction. The pendulum has swung | :27:30. | :27:34. | |
because of the nature of those involved in the investigation. Again | :27:35. | :27:44. | |
I cover that in the book. What you mean, the pendulum has swung, you | :27:45. | :27:49. | |
think it has too far? I think quite a number of people think it has | :27:50. | :27:52. | |
swung too far. I believe that the best interests of the genuine victim | :27:53. | :28:01. | |
and survivor of child sexual abuse is to restore it to a better balance | :28:02. | :28:08. | |
between suspect and complainant. You do not disagree when police say we | :28:09. | :28:14. | |
have got to follow what allegations? Of course the police have got to | :28:15. | :28:17. | |
investigate, it is the manner of the investigation. The calling of the | :28:18. | :28:23. | |
witness, credible and true, before they had even got any corroboration, | :28:24. | :28:29. | |
any other evidence whatsoever and before they had spoken to me or the | :28:30. | :28:35. | |
other people who were alive. You put a lot of attention on the police. | :28:36. | :28:38. | |
Just tell me about your reaction if you like to the rest of society at | :28:39. | :28:45. | |
the media, the way these things are covered, the public and their view | :28:46. | :28:51. | |
of these issues. Do you have, the politicians, who has stood and | :28:52. | :28:56. | |
watched people like you in the dock for over a year. I just wonder if | :28:57. | :29:00. | |
you think it is a bigger thing than just the police. The police are the | :29:01. | :29:06. | |
driving force in this. But certain politicians have put pressure on | :29:07. | :29:11. | |
certain ministers, namely the Home Secretary, to establish for example | :29:12. | :29:17. | |
a so-called independent enquiry to child sexual abuse. This enquiry is | :29:18. | :29:23. | |
one of two enquiries that the Metropolitan Police have suggested | :29:24. | :29:25. | |
should investigate their own misdeeds. Quite strongly. The | :29:26. | :29:32. | |
Goddard enquiry, the big overarching went into all allegations, came into | :29:33. | :29:37. | |
law. You said you do not want to be part of that. It has become an | :29:38. | :29:41. | |
industry and it is not the right formula for investing -- | :29:42. | :29:47. | |
investigating Operation Midland. It was set up to do something | :29:48. | :29:51. | |
different. Not to investigate the police and their ways of getting it | :29:52. | :29:54. | |
wrong this last 18 months. I would separate those things and I | :29:55. | :30:05. | |
believe the enquiry has become an industry and an ongoing enquiry that | :30:06. | :30:11. | |
was supposed to end in six years but it will never end, it will go on. I | :30:12. | :30:16. | |
am interested in this because when you talk to older people, they will | :30:17. | :30:21. | |
often have tales of a teacher or a neighbour or somebody who did to | :30:22. | :30:26. | |
them when they were young, things that would be called sexual assault. | :30:27. | :30:31. | |
Fondling and groping, not murder or torture or rape, but lots of people | :30:32. | :30:38. | |
have those stories. What is society meant to do with that history? That | :30:39. | :30:45. | |
backlog of cases, having changed our view is so markedly towards that, | :30:46. | :30:49. | |
taking it much more seriously? It is a question of rarities and I think | :30:50. | :30:55. | |
the Metropolitan Police and other forces have got their priorities | :30:56. | :31:00. | |
wrong. They should concentrate on current abuse, not historic abuse. | :31:01. | :31:06. | |
And where historic abuse is investigated, they have to have even | :31:07. | :31:11. | |
more corroboration land in present cases. Tell me how you are now? You | :31:12. | :31:19. | |
have been deeply traumatised, he said it had ruined your life. You | :31:20. | :31:24. | |
said you had lost your job, your home, tell me what your mature real | :31:25. | :31:31. | |
circumstances are? I do not know what I am going to do, I am hoping | :31:32. | :31:36. | |
that something may come of this, I am not wealthy, I need to work. I | :31:37. | :31:42. | |
need the money and all of my planning was based on continuing to | :31:43. | :31:45. | |
work, at least for another six years, and all of that has gone by. | :31:46. | :31:51. | |
So I need something to happen. I have got no plans. The plan was to | :31:52. | :31:56. | |
write the book, I have written the book 's. You were always known as a | :31:57. | :32:03. | |
very right-wing member of the Conservative party. Just right. Have | :32:04. | :32:08. | |
you become more socially liberal over the years? Partly through this? | :32:09. | :32:15. | |
It is for others to judge. I always believed that I was dead centre of | :32:16. | :32:21. | |
my political spectrum, others fell to the left or right and on some | :32:22. | :32:26. | |
issues, you might be regarded as right-wing... Have you moved to the | :32:27. | :32:30. | |
left as you have grown older? When you see the way that gay men have a | :32:31. | :32:37. | |
better time than you did in the 1970s and 1980s? I am pleased about | :32:38. | :32:46. | |
that for them. Not for you? I have been much too preoccupied with my | :32:47. | :32:51. | |
own difficulties. I have every right to have been preoccupied and I had | :32:52. | :32:57. | |
to take on the Metropolitan Police from what they have been doing to me | :32:58. | :33:02. | |
and others. And it has been a hard fight and a hard struggle. Harvey | :33:03. | :33:04. | |
Proctor, thank you. Walk around any city in the UK, | :33:05. | :33:08. | |
and you will not be surprised to encounter people sleeping | :33:09. | :33:11. | |
on the streets, tucked up The published numbers of street | :33:12. | :33:15. | |
sleepers have been rising sharply. The stories of how people end up | :33:16. | :33:22. | |
there are often complicated. And you probably don't have time | :33:23. | :33:24. | |
to hear them let alone But here's a question: | :33:25. | :33:27. | |
in 100 years' time, when future people look | :33:28. | :33:34. | |
back on our society, will they ask how we | :33:35. | :33:36. | |
tolerated rough sleeping? It surely can't cost that much | :33:37. | :33:38. | |
to make sure everybody has a bed, or mental health | :33:39. | :33:41. | |
provision if necessary? Well, we'll ask why the problem | :33:42. | :33:43. | |
is unsolved in a few minutes, but first, the voice of rough | :33:44. | :33:45. | |
sleepers themselves. This piece was put together for us, | :33:46. | :33:47. | |
by the film-maker Dave Young. You want to know what it's | :33:48. | :33:55. | |
like to be homeless? On a day-to-day basis I'm | :33:56. | :33:57. | |
surrounded by crackheads, It's not like I want to be involved, | :33:58. | :34:01. | |
but it's a road I found myself on. Like many people on this road, | :34:02. | :34:07. | |
their lives are so complex It is probably the reason why we're | :34:08. | :34:10. | |
all in this mess. And we don't even | :34:11. | :34:13. | |
control the lights. And when it's windy and blistering | :34:14. | :34:17. | |
cold in the darkest of November's nights, our only wish | :34:18. | :34:20. | |
is to feel warm inside. A luxury we all miss, | :34:21. | :34:22. | |
like a sweet kiss. I split with my wife, | :34:23. | :34:32. | |
lived on a barge. The barge caught fire, | :34:33. | :34:36. | |
I lost everything. I ended up with what I was wearing | :34:37. | :34:40. | |
and ?26 in my pocket. The key worker told me I would be | :34:41. | :34:45. | |
on the streets for six months. After that six months, | :34:46. | :34:49. | |
the council could still take two Up until recently, Bristol only ever | :34:50. | :34:51. | |
admitted to seven homeless people. And it's probably gone over | :34:52. | :35:03. | |
the 200 mark now. And they all have their scared look | :35:04. | :35:15. | |
on their face. I used to drive coaches | :35:16. | :35:21. | |
all around the UK. My Nan died and I got kicked out | :35:22. | :35:31. | |
by my uncle because the house I have a big problem, | :35:32. | :35:35. | |
because I'm in a tent, I can't get my driving licence | :35:36. | :35:46. | |
changed because I don't So without having my license | :35:47. | :35:48. | |
updated, to this new address, If it is after seven then I can go | :35:49. | :35:55. | |
20 minutes to Sainsbury's. But if I do, I stay in the tent | :35:56. | :36:15. | |
in my sleeping bag and just I have been homeless for seven | :36:16. | :36:30. | |
and a half months. In the town centre to start | :36:31. | :36:44. | |
with but I was very anxious of night We were in a little two-man tent | :36:45. | :36:47. | |
to start with and then somebody donated his tent and you can | :36:48. | :36:53. | |
see behind us. If it was not for the general | :36:54. | :36:57. | |
public, we would be knackered. If I have to find a job, | :36:58. | :37:09. | |
I actually have to take all of my luggage to my job with me, | :37:10. | :37:15. | |
which is not viable, As well is that, I have | :37:16. | :37:18. | |
to carry my dirty stuff with my clean stuff, | :37:19. | :37:29. | |
find somewhere to wash it and try it, put it all back | :37:30. | :37:32. | |
into the same place. From months of walking, | :37:33. | :37:34. | |
not wearing proper shoes. But I cannot help that, | :37:35. | :37:40. | |
I cannot afford shoes. I live in a winter | :37:41. | :37:42. | |
shelter as of the moment. We get fed at about 7:30am | :37:43. | :37:56. | |
in the morning and then, until about 8.30pm at night, | :37:57. | :38:02. | |
there is nothing else to eat. When we do have money, | :38:03. | :38:05. | |
we're having to spend that money on fast food because it is not | :38:06. | :38:13. | |
like we have the resources to cook We cannot store food, | :38:14. | :38:17. | |
we cannot even store our clothes. I became homeless when my | :38:18. | :38:24. | |
sister lost her house. The first night was | :38:25. | :38:28. | |
terrible, definitely. I was sitting there, | :38:29. | :38:33. | |
crying to myself, thinking, I cannot believe, all I want to do | :38:34. | :38:38. | |
as a 26-year-old is just a normal We come here at eight o'clock | :38:39. | :38:48. | |
at night time and then we get called Because I go to college | :38:49. | :38:53. | |
two days a week. Those two days I'm OK and some days, | :38:54. | :38:57. | |
even if I don't have college, I would be in the library | :38:58. | :39:00. | |
doing my work, to kill the time off. It is great to have somewhere that | :39:01. | :39:03. | |
you can go to at night and you can lie down, it is warm, | :39:04. | :39:09. | |
you get good food, warm food to eat. My parents told me to ignore | :39:10. | :39:13. | |
homeless people on the streets because they obviously | :39:14. | :39:20. | |
declined the help. But I could never | :39:21. | :39:22. | |
really accept that. I have now seen it first-hand | :39:23. | :39:25. | |
and I'm meeting people, all different age groups, | :39:26. | :39:28. | |
ethnicities, genders, We're handing over our fate | :39:29. | :39:29. | |
and someone else is in control I think there is a system in place | :39:30. | :39:38. | |
but it is not a system designed for helping people, it is a system | :39:39. | :39:44. | |
designed for keeping people I decided to start helping other | :39:45. | :39:47. | |
people. And I managed to get three people | :39:48. | :39:53. | |
off the streets, into housing. In a washing machine | :39:54. | :40:00. | |
factory in Bristol. And if I can do it, why can't | :40:01. | :40:07. | |
an institute like the council do it? Basically, it is a problem | :40:08. | :40:15. | |
all around Manchester, the homeless. But if you haven't got a local | :40:16. | :40:18. | |
connection, you are not a priority. That is why I became homeless | :40:19. | :40:26. | |
because I had to leave my house due to an ex-partner, | :40:27. | :40:32. | |
for personal reasons. I went travelling and lost | :40:33. | :40:35. | |
my local connection. They give you shelters but they only | :40:36. | :40:39. | |
give you shelters for so long and then they kick you out | :40:40. | :40:44. | |
again so you are back They need to sort it out, | :40:45. | :40:46. | |
really, because it is It is just getting worse, | :40:47. | :40:50. | |
it is never getting better. I have been living like this | :40:51. | :40:57. | |
for a year and I am sick of it. It is my own fault because I | :40:58. | :41:01. | |
walked out of my job. I walked out because I | :41:02. | :41:05. | |
could not cope any more. I don't take drugs, | :41:06. | :41:09. | |
I don't do whatever, On average I read about | :41:10. | :41:11. | |
three novels a week. To escape from the reality | :41:12. | :41:16. | |
of what I am living in. Whenever you put yourself in a book | :41:17. | :41:19. | |
you could be anywhere. Anywhere in the world, | :41:20. | :41:23. | |
doing anything. I just don't know whose | :41:24. | :41:25. | |
dream I am living. Voices from a city street near you, | :41:26. | :41:30. | |
put together by Dave Young. Back to our main story tonight now - | :41:31. | :41:52. | |
the expected announcement from Steel giant Tata to sell its | :41:53. | :41:57. | |
loss-making UK business. Chris Cook is our policy editor | :41:58. | :41:58. | |
and has been speaking to people What are they saying? What I was | :41:59. | :42:09. | |
struck by is they are going beyond platitudes and say how devoted they | :42:10. | :42:15. | |
are to the steel industry but contrary to what Angela Eagle said | :42:16. | :42:19. | |
earlier, they are concerned by the prospect of putting the government | :42:20. | :42:21. | |
in as a backstop because they believe they could run up very big | :42:22. | :42:27. | |
bills and they could run into the EU Commission. They are talking about | :42:28. | :42:31. | |
facilitating a deal, a private sector solution, putting up | :42:32. | :42:36. | |
government cash through loans and guarantees and talking about using | :42:37. | :42:40. | |
procurement to swing more business that way. On their own, they will | :42:41. | :42:45. | |
not rescue Port Talbot but they were things that might make it easier for | :42:46. | :42:49. | |
a private sector solution. You can do some of those things and not rub | :42:50. | :42:53. | |
against the state aid? Exactly. Thank you. That is all we have time | :42:54. | :43:00. | |
for. We will hear more about that story tomorrow. From all of us, good | :43:01. | :43:01. | |
night. Today was a day of sunshine and | :43:02. | :43:16. | |
showers and tomorrow will be sunshine and showers but they are | :43:17. | :43:21. | |
not the same and there will be fewer showers around tomorrow, still some | :43:22. | :43:24. | |
heavy ones knocking about what a good chance that you will avoid them | :43:25. | :43:28. | |
and see lots of fine weather. This is a snapshot from mid-afternoon, | :43:29. | :43:30. | |
you | :43:31. | :43:31. |