30/03/2016 Newsnight


30/03/2016

Can UK steel survive? Rebuilding the ancient monuments of Palmyra. Afghan president Ashraf Ghani. Plus who should lead Brexit campaign? With Evan Davis.


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The biggest industrial headache in this country for many years.

:00:00.:00:07.

With no time to waste, an enormous decision to be taken

:00:08.:00:10.

I do not think that nationalisation is the solution because everybody

:00:11.:00:24.

would want a long-term viable solution. I am shocked, the Business

:00:25.:00:30.

Secretary's job is to ensure that jobs are maintained.

:00:31.:00:32.

And if not, is there life after steel?

:00:33.:00:37.

And ever since it has gone, it is like a ghost city.

:00:38.:00:43.

Thank God he has really large ears, the biggest ears I have ever seen.

:00:44.:00:50.

I would like to punch him in the face, I tell you.

:00:51.:00:53.

He has no shortage of insults for people

:00:54.:00:55.

But does Donald Trump have a problem with women?

:00:56.:00:59.

Targeted by ISIS, reconstructed by lasers and 3D printing.

:01:00.:01:10.

Is this the future of preserving ancient architecture?

:01:11.:01:22.

Britain has not been keen on industrial intervention -

:01:23.:01:26.

"It's throwing good money after bad," it's said.

:01:27.:01:31.

But that laid-back, laissez-faire approach

:01:32.:01:33.

is meeting its stiffest challenge ever.

:01:34.:01:36.

Are we really willing to do nothing and watch our steel

:01:37.:01:40.

Remember, when Britain let Rover go under, we already had a new car

:01:41.:01:45.

industry in place - but that's not where

:01:46.:01:47.

Needless to say, arguments for some kind of help are swirling around.

:01:48.:01:52.

We need a steel industry for defence.

:01:53.:01:54.

We shouldn't let others steal the market from us by

:01:55.:01:59.

And some say it's a temporary problem, not a permanent one -

:02:00.:02:05.

We will test some of these points later on, but the dilemma is stark -

:02:06.:02:13.

Let's start with our policy editor, Chris Cook.

:02:14.:02:22.

Today's bad news may be all about Port Talbot in south

:02:23.:02:28.

Wales, but you have to look further afield to see

:02:29.:02:30.

Tata Steel itself is based in Mumbai in India,

:02:31.:02:34.

and that is where the decision was made.

:02:35.:02:37.

But the country with the biggest impact on the global steel industry

:02:38.:02:40.

is China, and any attempts by the UK Government to support British Steel

:02:41.:02:44.

would be subject to review by the European

:02:45.:02:46.

Now, steel is an essential material for modern

:02:47.:02:55.

Behind me here is part of the giant Crossrail works.

:02:56.:03:02.

This is built using Tata steel, in this

:03:03.:03:04.

The problem isn't with demand so much, it is really with supply.

:03:05.:03:13.

China, once upon a time, imported steel. The same time it was building

:03:14.:03:21.

a domestic industry. Between 2012 and 2015, supplied meets demand and

:03:22.:03:25.

the price for steel products in China more than halved. There is new

:03:26.:03:31.

Chinese producers and they started to export. Chinese sales abroad

:03:32.:03:37.

rising as domestic prices fell so in a few short years, China swinging

:03:38.:03:43.

from a voracious customer to fierce competitor. This is not like the

:03:44.:03:47.

problems facing banks in 2000 and eight, when you are on the verge of

:03:48.:03:52.

having no big banks at all. Too many steelmakers in the world. Some argue

:03:53.:03:58.

we should save our own steelmakers. We should not be looking for charity

:03:59.:04:02.

or sentimental reasons for keeping this but there are clearly some

:04:03.:04:07.

benefits, not for every company, but with proximity, integration to the

:04:08.:04:11.

supply chain and if the car manufacturing base in the north-east

:04:12.:04:14.

was integrated to the metals manufacturing in the West Midlands,

:04:15.:04:20.

they can create real advantages over steel producers in China which

:04:21.:04:24.

cannot react to market demands and going forwards into flexible forms

:04:25.:04:30.

of production, having a base in the UK could be an advantage going

:04:31.:04:33.

forwards, if we can keep advisable in the short-term. There are also

:04:34.:04:40.

human costs to mass unemployment. You can see the trauma in many

:04:41.:04:45.

former mining times and bad experience suggest you cannot

:04:46.:04:48.

underestimate the potential fiscal costs either. Andrew, a left-wing

:04:49.:04:53.

economist, estimates it would have been cheaper to pay the costs of

:04:54.:04:57.

keeping 31 minds open in the 1990s and paying the bill for the miners

:04:58.:05:00.

but Britain would not be allowed to prop up Port Talbot. It is a

:05:01.:05:05.

founding principle of the EU that states should not be allowed to tilt

:05:06.:05:11.

the playing field in favour of the own companies by putting up or years

:05:12.:05:15.

to foreign companies or by offering subsidies. That last real, the state

:05:16.:05:21.

aid rules, could get in the way of helping a company like Tata Steel in

:05:22.:05:25.

Britain. There are limited exceptions to this rule is on

:05:26.:05:30.

subsidies. One relates to so-called rescue aid. It is permissible in

:05:31.:05:37.

tightly defined circumstances and has to be with a view to restoring

:05:38.:05:42.

the business to its long-term health and it is considered very much a

:05:43.:05:48.

temporary measure. Since the European Commission estimates Europe

:05:49.:05:53.

has 15% too much steel-making capacity, selling the rescue would

:05:54.:05:58.

be tough but the EU might be handy cover for Britain. The government is

:05:59.:06:01.

not keen to end up with a loss-making business on the balance

:06:02.:06:05.

sheet. I do not think that nationalisation is the solution

:06:06.:06:10.

because everyone would want a long-term, viable solution and if

:06:11.:06:13.

you look at Europe and elsewhere, nationalisation is rarely the

:06:14.:06:17.

answer, if you take into account the challenges the industry faces but

:06:18.:06:21.

there are solutions to this once we understand the situation better and

:06:22.:06:24.

we want to make sure we explored them. What might the ministers do?

:06:25.:06:30.

Britain is against raising Europe-wide tariffs on Chinese

:06:31.:06:33.

steel, noting the pain it would cause to steel buyers. Labour has

:06:34.:06:40.

supported intervention and measures against Chinese steel. I went to

:06:41.:06:44.

meet the President of China to press on him but very demand. It seems to

:06:45.:06:50.

me that too many people are not prepared to say to the Chinese

:06:51.:06:54.

government, sorry, your behaviour is not right, not fair and not proper

:06:55.:06:58.

and not within the rules of the World Trade Organisation. If they

:06:59.:07:02.

are to avoid closing this chapter in steel-making history, what options

:07:03.:07:06.

have ministers got? They could cut energy costs or they could buy more

:07:07.:07:11.

British Steel or they could help finance a sale. But that needs

:07:12.:07:16.

someone to take the plant on. The killer question is- who might not be

:07:17.:07:21.

and what might they save? Chris Cook.

:07:22.:07:23.

You can read the history of the European steel industry over

:07:24.:07:26.

the last 50 years, and it comes across as one manifest crisis

:07:27.:07:29.

after another - a recession each decade, excess supply,

:07:30.:07:32.

attempts by Europe to manage things, thwarted by the desire of each

:07:33.:07:37.

country to keep its own plants open at any cost.

:07:38.:07:40.

It makes this a peculiarly difficult industry to manage.

:07:41.:07:43.

Sir Vince Cable is with us, Lib Dem and former Business Secretary

:07:44.:07:46.

If you were still in that job, what would you be doing tomorrow? I think

:07:47.:08:02.

that government intervention is involved whether we like it or not

:08:03.:08:05.

and were already intervening by providing compensation because of

:08:06.:08:10.

high energy costs and state aid clearance we have for that. The

:08:11.:08:14.

argument is we could be doing more of that. What we would have to do

:08:15.:08:19.

tomorrow is trying to bridge the very short-term objective which Tata

:08:20.:08:24.

Steel have said for getting out of the industry and the longer period

:08:25.:08:28.

which would be required to manage this sale in an orderly way without

:08:29.:08:32.

catastrophic consequences and the other area we have to look at

:08:33.:08:36.

closely is the issue of International Trade, I am not

:08:37.:08:41.

protectionist but under national -- International Trade la, if you get

:08:42.:08:46.

dumping in foreign markets at domestic prices, with the Chinese

:08:47.:08:50.

have allegedly been doing, then the EU is entitled are entitled to

:08:51.:08:55.

impose duties as it has done at relatively low levels. The British

:08:56.:09:00.

government voted against the higher tariff regime they could have gone

:09:01.:09:06.

for. Those are the issues. You use the word sale and were using the

:09:07.:09:11.

same word, up for sale, British Steel, but it is not up for sale,

:09:12.:09:15.

they would give it away. They would sell for ?1. They would pay someone

:09:16.:09:20.

to take it. There are not many buyers around on the issue of

:09:21.:09:24.

Scunthorpe came up, we had one man who is -- who expressed interest in

:09:25.:09:31.

asset stripping but there has been what seems to be a qualified seal to

:09:32.:09:36.

a buyer in Scotland, the Scottish government intervened and then

:09:37.:09:39.

nationalised this form a few seconds to allow that deal to take place so

:09:40.:09:46.

yes, it is a difficult environment. On nationalisation, would you

:09:47.:09:51.

support, you are not in favour of long-term nationalisation would you

:09:52.:09:54.

support short-term nationalisation if it meant the Exchequer would pay

:09:55.:10:00.

?1 million every week to keep this alive? I would approach this in a

:10:01.:10:04.

non-travelling, public ownership has a role in committed circumstances,

:10:05.:10:11.

but if it would help, I didn't think this is a question of throwing large

:10:12.:10:17.

amounts of taxpayer money at this, a rapid does orderly closure would

:10:18.:10:21.

impose large costs. Not just on the human cost, on the community, but a

:10:22.:10:28.

large fiscal cost as well. Clearly, the government must look at value

:10:29.:10:32.

for money, but as one of the requirements of the European Union

:10:33.:10:35.

rules. If there was value for money in a temporary period of public

:10:36.:10:42.

intervention, then we should do it. This does not get publicity in the

:10:43.:10:47.

coalition we had this problem at the last underground coal mines and

:10:48.:10:51.

there was a temporary finance provided. We will pick up on those

:10:52.:10:56.

strategic questions. Well, is there economic

:10:57.:10:57.

life after steel? In effect we find ourselves

:10:58.:10:59.

asking an old question - how as a country do we respond

:11:00.:11:03.

to the changing balance London is bursting with new jobs

:11:04.:11:06.

but doesn't have the housing to accommodate everyone,

:11:07.:11:13.

so it's no good expecting all of Britain to move

:11:14.:11:15.

there to find work. But can you move new

:11:16.:11:18.

jobs to South Wales? Do you pay jobs to go there,

:11:19.:11:20.

and if you do, is it better to simply pay an existing steel

:11:21.:11:26.

company to stay there? We sent Secunder Kermani not

:11:27.:11:29.

to Port Talbot today, but to Ebbw Vale, where the steel

:11:30.:11:35.

mill, once the largest in Europe, Ebbw Vale in south Wales

:11:36.:11:38.

was built on steel. At its peak, the works

:11:39.:11:48.

here provided around 15,000 But amidst many of the same market

:11:49.:11:51.

pressures still in place Like in Port Talbot,

:11:52.:11:57.

around an hour's drive away from here, steel

:11:58.:12:02.

was in the heart of the community But if you look at the site

:12:03.:12:04.

with the steelworks used to be, there is almost no sign

:12:05.:12:09.

of it left any more. If you want to know what happens

:12:10.:12:11.

when heavy industry leaves town, With the steelworks,

:12:12.:12:14.

I can go back a lot of years, and when you left school at 15,

:12:15.:12:20.

you got an apprenticeship, You could go from one job,

:12:21.:12:24.

you could leave a job on Friday and get a job on Monday,

:12:25.:12:30.

and ever since it's gone There is nothing to

:12:31.:12:33.

do in this valley at Both grandfathers were in the steel,

:12:34.:12:37.

in the mines, like. Yes, because there

:12:38.:12:42.

was a lot more jobs There was hundreds

:12:43.:12:46.

and hundreds of jobs. It was a lot easier in the '70s,

:12:47.:12:50.

'80s, '90s than what it is now. Many of those who lost

:12:51.:12:53.

their jobs either retired, became

:12:54.:12:55.

self-employed or left town. I moved to Swindon, been

:12:56.:12:57.

in Swindon for 14 years. Every family would have had someone

:12:58.:13:09.

that worked at the works, and if you look at the signage

:13:10.:13:16.

around, even today, The union rep at the time

:13:17.:13:18.

the steelworks closed is Dai Davies. He says workers were let down

:13:19.:13:24.

by government after government. They've all neglected

:13:25.:13:27.

the valley communities. I've said many times that the valley

:13:28.:13:31.

communities built the world, so iron, steel and coal production,

:13:32.:13:35.

we built the world, and yet we are now left with basically empty

:13:36.:13:39.

valleys, empty shells The local council bought

:13:40.:13:42.

the site of the steelworks. One of its rolling machines,

:13:43.:13:47.

too heavy to move, still They build a hospital,

:13:48.:13:49.

leisure centre in schools Part of a regeneration,

:13:50.:13:53.

an attempt to lead people Richard Crook has led

:13:54.:14:01.

the project, and sees better education as the best

:14:02.:14:05.

replacement for the lost jobs. We certainly took the opportunity

:14:06.:14:08.

that because the works were closing, Had the works not closed,

:14:09.:14:10.

then potentially we may have continued on in that same

:14:11.:14:14.

process, which at some point in the future would have led

:14:15.:14:18.

to us to have to make the same decision, so yes, it is easy

:14:19.:14:21.

to become wedded to what is there, and it is understandable,

:14:22.:14:24.

because it is providing good quality employment

:14:25.:14:26.

and spreading the growth into the supply chain,

:14:27.:14:28.

so why change? Sometimes you need that jolt

:14:29.:14:30.

to force the change, and to move on into a 21st-century

:14:31.:14:33.

economy, and that is No, but you have to take

:14:34.:14:35.

it as an opportunity, because if it has

:14:36.:14:40.

happened, what do you do? But many have greeted

:14:41.:14:43.

the new developments with cynicism. They say there is no

:14:44.:14:45.

compensation for the This is the archive section

:14:46.:14:47.

I set up on leaving He began documenting the changes

:14:48.:14:53.

to the town with a video camera, bought with

:14:54.:15:02.

his redundancy money. It is not bringing jobs

:15:03.:15:05.

to Ebbw Vale, and that is the one It is a nice town now,

:15:06.:15:08.

clean town, nice But as far as the people

:15:09.:15:12.

are concerned, it's not, because in the 60s and 70s,

:15:13.:15:20.

everybody had work, despite the fact that they were living

:15:21.:15:24.

in perhaps poor conditions, There are still factories here,

:15:25.:15:27.

and TVR is due to set But many lament the demise of steel,

:15:28.:15:39.

and warn Port Talbot will, too. Well, joining me now to discuss

:15:40.:15:51.

whether steel has a future and whether government should be

:15:52.:15:56.

intervening in markets like this at all are Professor

:15:57.:15:58.

Mariana Mazzucato, author of The Entrepreneurial State

:15:59.:16:00.

and Professor at Sussex University, Allister Heath, Deputy Editor

:16:01.:16:02.

of the Daily Telegraph, and Sir Vince Cable

:16:03.:16:04.

is still with us. Do you find this case, when you look

:16:05.:16:17.

at what happened in Ebbw Vale, it is a challenge to the view that the

:16:18.:16:19.

Government should let industry work itself out? I find all cases with

:16:20.:16:26.

big job losses and huge impact on community is very difficult, but

:16:27.:16:30.

nevertheless the future of this country is to embrace globalisation,

:16:31.:16:35.

free trade, new industries that are viable in the modern economy, and I

:16:36.:16:38.

think we have done really well overall as a country. There are

:16:39.:16:43.

problems in certain areas, old coal mining and steel mining areas, but

:16:44.:16:46.

overall as a country we have embraced these new service

:16:47.:16:50.

industries and high-tech manufacturing. No one is going to

:16:51.:16:56.

say Britain doesn't have jobs, not always the best paid, but we have

:16:57.:16:59.

jobs. But what you do with the valleys in your point of view? Due

:17:00.:17:05.

basically say to people, the jobs are not there, you have to move? Or

:17:06.:17:09.

do you bribe other companies to move jobs there? How do you connect the

:17:10.:17:14.

new economy, a lot of which is in hubs around London and the

:17:15.:17:16.

south-east, and the bits that haven't got these? That is the great

:17:17.:17:22.

challenge in how you in Jenny this great challenge. There is a set of

:17:23.:17:28.

answers, you need to create enterprise zones, give fiscal

:17:29.:17:33.

incentives, zero copies in tax, no national insurance in those areas,

:17:34.:17:37.

so a set of policies like that to try to change those areas, but I

:17:38.:17:40.

think resisting change, saying we are going to stick with 20th century

:17:41.:17:45.

industries, 19th century industries, that is not the solution. These

:17:46.:17:50.

industries have declined for 20 or 30 years, and this is just the

:17:51.:17:53.

acceleration of a long-running process. The other two of you I

:17:54.:17:57.

think are more interventionist, I think. You believe Government has a

:17:58.:18:04.

bigger role, what you say to him? There is a static dichotomy that has

:18:05.:18:09.

been depicted, either nationalisation or being laid-back,

:18:10.:18:13.

the term embracing industry. The term embracing industry comes from a

:18:14.:18:15.

co-investment between public and private sectors, and some of the

:18:16.:18:21.

great champions in this country, Rolls-Royce, jaguar, other sectors,

:18:22.:18:23.

have been fruits of those kind of public interventions which are not

:18:24.:18:27.

just about subsidies, incentives through different types of tax cuts,

:18:28.:18:33.

but again, investment. And so I really think that this is a

:18:34.:18:38.

question, and if you look at the US or Belgium, what they have actually

:18:39.:18:41.

done is to transform and modernise the steel industry, to recover, the

:18:42.:18:48.

purpose, reuse, suggested the US, that is worth $8 billion. One of

:18:49.:18:53.

your industrial policies, you have said on this programme many times

:18:54.:18:57.

that industry needs patient finance, financiers who are not here today,

:18:58.:19:01.

gone tomorrow. Steele has had patient finance, Tata is the epitome

:19:02.:19:07.

of a good, well-run company that gives its divisions time to sort

:19:08.:19:11.

themselves out, but it given up. But we shouldn't just be part of another

:19:12.:19:15.

country's industrial policy which isn't necessarily went to the UK

:19:16.:19:20.

steel industry, and as changes occur to commodity prices, we just go with

:19:21.:19:24.

the wind. One of the questions is, what kind of deals also can be

:19:25.:19:28.

struck with these foreign sources of patient finance, and you are right

:19:29.:19:34.

to look at them as a source of patient finance. When Fiat went to

:19:35.:19:42.

the US and joined with Chrysler, Obama insisted that they look at

:19:43.:19:48.

hybrid engines. In the same in Italy, you don't strike if you want

:19:49.:19:51.

to biotic deals with the private sector, because if you want

:19:52.:19:55.

incentive to be business friendly, this terrible word that we keep

:19:56.:19:57.

repeating, because business itself doesn't then effect from

:19:58.:20:01.

friendliness, it benefits from having a strategic innovation

:20:02.:20:06.

policy, and we need better deals. A lot of the stuff that Alastair was

:20:07.:20:09.

talking about is going to have to happen anyway, because even in the

:20:10.:20:12.

best case scenario, there will be a lot of redundancies, so that kind of

:20:13.:20:20.

sport -- support is whether some intervention is required to hold it

:20:21.:20:25.

from complete collapse. This isn't just standardised products, we

:20:26.:20:29.

talking high-value products, high-value technology, and Tata

:20:30.:20:35.

believed passionately until recently in Port Tolbert, they invested in a

:20:36.:20:40.

new blast furnace, so I think what we have to distinguish is the

:20:41.:20:43.

long-term competitiveness issues which are tricky but can be

:20:44.:20:46.

overcome, and this global glut problem. And the question to ask, is

:20:47.:20:52.

the global glut problem temporary, as we deal with the Chinese import

:20:53.:20:56.

issue, or is it a permanent or semipermanent problem, in which case

:20:57.:20:59.

there isn't a great deal we can do except of vast cost.

:21:00.:21:04.

But your view is the global glut is temporary? It to do with the Chinese

:21:05.:21:06.

adjustment to a more balanced economy. They are producing 800

:21:07.:21:12.

million tonnes, we are producing 12 million tonnes, we are barely a

:21:13.:21:16.

decimal point on the production, they only have to move a little bit

:21:17.:21:20.

and we are blown over. You think there is a viable portion? I can't

:21:21.:21:24.

predict the future, none of us can. But there is also the question of

:21:25.:21:28.

the unstable policies that both the last government and this government

:21:29.:21:31.

having committed around energy, this stop and start, so given that energy

:21:32.:21:38.

costs are a big fact for steel, they need certainty, not just the

:21:39.:21:44.

investors... If we had a fair energy price and a level playing field, do

:21:45.:21:48.

you think there would still be overcapacity in the world steel

:21:49.:21:51.

market, and should Britain be trying to keep it a bit in the market? When

:21:52.:21:57.

you are using the word steel, you're taking a snapshot, this static thing

:21:58.:22:02.

called steel. In any sector, we can modernise, we can have innovation

:22:03.:22:09.

policy which transforms the steel industry, and instead, ironically,

:22:10.:22:12.

it is precisely because we have had these laissez faire policies that we

:22:13.:22:19.

have a decaying sector. There is massive overcapacity in the global

:22:20.:22:23.

steel industry, but these are long-term problems. 320,000 people

:22:24.:22:30.

were avoiding the steel in 1970, now there are 30,000, so a 90%

:22:31.:22:34.

reduction. The answer is not to hark back to those days. You are agreeing

:22:35.:22:48.

with Marianna there. And looking at Jaguar Land Rover, they depend on

:22:49.:22:52.

buying cheaper steel, so we need to make the overall economy as

:22:53.:22:56.

competitive as possible in the global market, not saddling

:22:57.:22:59.

ourselves with overpriced steel and expensive energy. Other industries

:23:00.:23:04.

benefit from dumped Chinese steel. Yes, they have bought in in these

:23:05.:23:09.

companies. So more than half of the market is imported. Would you

:23:10.:23:13.

happily see those companies lose jobs or pay more for their steel?

:23:14.:23:20.

There is always creative destruction, so would we have

:23:21.:23:24.

tariffs? Would you have tariffs? It is not about do you want them or

:23:25.:23:32.

not. I think we should have free trade, that should be the solution.

:23:33.:23:35.

Which try to police trade and make sure that people don't abuse the

:23:36.:23:38.

system, but by and large we should enter free trade. I actually don't

:23:39.:23:42.

think we're getting to the core of the problem. I would like to hear

:23:43.:23:48.

Tata talk about this, when they close down some recent project in

:23:49.:23:51.

the UK, what they said was there was no vision in this country, in that

:23:52.:23:55.

particular case were green. I would bet that Mr Tata would not be

:23:56.:24:02.

closing down the plant here if he thought it was a hub of new thinking

:24:03.:24:06.

around steel, exactly in how you are talking about it, which is not just

:24:07.:24:10.

steel as a static sector but transformative and affecting the way

:24:11.:24:15.

other sectors operate. We don't have any industrial innovation. I want to

:24:16.:24:20.

ask you one more question, Vince. Do you recognise a case for keeping

:24:21.:24:26.

steel as a strategic industry in the case that a country the size of ours

:24:27.:24:29.

needs steel to build the defence and other purposes? The key strategic

:24:30.:24:35.

industries these days are electronic scum IT and so on, steel because we

:24:36.:24:45.

need dreadnoughts and so on, but I don't think we should be cavalier

:24:46.:24:49.

about accepting that we are the first major country not to make

:24:50.:24:51.

basic steel, I would worry about that. Thank you all very much, and

:24:52.:24:56.

I'm sorry we didn't have a member of the government here to make their

:24:57.:25:00.

point, they didn't offer anybody to us this evening. Let's move onto

:25:01.:25:02.

Donald Trump. He may describe himself as winning,

:25:03.:25:06.

but he's not a winner Almost half of Republican women say

:25:07.:25:09.

they could not imagine themselves supporting Mr Trump

:25:10.:25:13.

in a presidential election. Last week, or was it the week

:25:14.:25:15.

before, he was abusing His campaign manager has been

:25:16.:25:17.

charged with battery for grabbing And today he made some comments

:25:18.:25:22.

about abortion that have been Do you believe in

:25:23.:25:26.

punishment for abortion? The answer is that there has to be

:25:27.:25:30.

some form of punishment. As it happens, that line was dragged

:25:31.:25:35.

out of him by the interviewer - he had seemed reluctant to go

:25:36.:25:46.

that far, and he has Let's take stock of his appeal -

:25:47.:25:49.

or lack thereof - to women voters. I'm joined by Molly Ball,

:25:50.:25:54.

who is covering the US Presidential Something of a muddle in his line on

:25:55.:26:09.

abortion tonight. How do you think he will play it? Donald Trump has

:26:10.:26:14.

been all over the map on abortion and a lot of different issues, he

:26:15.:26:19.

tends to do this, taking contradictory stands, sometimes even

:26:20.:26:22.

in the same breath, and I think this allows people who like in to see

:26:23.:26:27.

whatever they want to see in him. In this case, after making the

:26:28.:26:29.

statement you just played on the tape, he then issued a statement

:26:30.:26:34.

later saying the exact opposite, that in the case, the hypothetical

:26:35.:26:38.

case that abortion were to be Bandini knighted States, it ought to

:26:39.:26:41.

be the people performing the abortions who would be prosecuted

:26:42.:26:45.

for that illegal act, not the women, who he described as the victims in

:26:46.:26:48.

this scenario along with the life in the womb. Donald Trump has a history

:26:49.:26:54.

of being pro-choice, meaning in favour of abortion rights, and he

:26:55.:26:59.

has claimed that he had an epiphany sometime between then and when he

:27:00.:27:03.

decided to run as Republican candidate for president, you really

:27:04.:27:06.

can't be a Republican candidate and be in favour of abortion rights, but

:27:07.:27:11.

he says he has the same position as Ronald Reagan, which is pro-life

:27:12.:27:14.

with exceptions, he would make exceptions to allow abortions in

:27:15.:27:17.

cases of rape and incest and when the life of the mother is in danger.

:27:18.:27:22.

I'm assuming his views on abortion are not really what is driving these

:27:23.:27:26.

rather poor polling ratings for him, because Republican women are keener

:27:27.:27:37.

on Cruz that they are on Trump. What are women not liking? You mention

:27:38.:27:43.

some of his greatest hits in terms of insulting women, but there is a

:27:44.:27:47.

litany of statements. He has been feuding with the Fox News anchor

:27:48.:27:50.

Megan Kelly, one of the stars of Conservative media, since the very

:27:51.:27:55.

first debate back in August, when she asked him about his offensive

:27:56.:28:02.

remarks about women. -- Megyn Kelly. He then went on television after

:28:03.:28:06.

that debate and insulted her, and they have continued to feud in the

:28:07.:28:10.

ensuing months. He frequently describes women in terms of their

:28:11.:28:13.

appearance and derides the based on their appearance. I think a lot of

:28:14.:28:18.

women feel that that is not just insulting to those individual women,

:28:19.:28:21.

but to women as a whole, that he sees them as objects, and he doesn't

:28:22.:28:27.

take them seriously as people. So you mentioned that half of

:28:28.:28:31.

Republican women don't like him, but it is about three quarters of women

:28:32.:28:36.

in the general electorate, and in presidential elections, women vote

:28:37.:28:39.

at higher rates than men do, they are the majority of the electorate.

:28:40.:28:42.

But he really doesn't seem to try, that is amazing. He carries on, he

:28:43.:28:48.

has this form, this history, you think you might have looked at the

:28:49.:28:50.

ratings and come up with something nice to say to women, but he doesn't

:28:51.:28:55.

try. What is going on in his head? Is he just too sure of himself? Or

:28:56.:29:01.

does he think, I keep winning by breaking rules, so I will keep

:29:02.:29:04.

breaking the rules in the hope that this will pay dividends later. Fabio

:29:05.:29:08.

Petroni to try to psychoanalyse Donald Trump, I do think anyone

:29:09.:29:12.

knows what is going on inside his brain. -- far be it from me. But he

:29:13.:29:20.

has this willingness to say what other people won't say, he is not

:29:21.:29:24.

bound by political correctness, and a lot of people, particularly men,

:29:25.:29:28.

feel emasculated by feminism and by the increasing equality of women,

:29:29.:29:34.

and feel that in this day and age, you can't even tell a woman that she

:29:35.:29:37.

looks pretty without having people all over you, so it is a sort of

:29:38.:29:42.

white male identity politics that Donald Trump is speaking to, but as

:29:43.:29:46.

you mention, he hasn't made any effort to broaden his appeal or

:29:47.:29:50.

build bridges to people who are not in that segment. You have 12 seconds

:29:51.:29:55.

to answer the question, will women vote Hillary Clinton? Does she grab

:29:56.:29:59.

women? Are they all right laying around behind her? That is a big

:30:00.:30:07.

question, but she has not managed to rally women to herself in the

:30:08.:30:13.

Democratic primary. In 2008, she ran as a sexless candidate, but she has

:30:14.:30:17.

run more aggressively this time, wanting to be the first woman

:30:18.:30:21.

president, and in her primary against Bernie Sanders, young women

:30:22.:30:24.

have not flocked to have as a result. Molly, thank you very much

:30:25.:30:26.

indeed. The President of Afghanistan,

:30:27.:30:52.

Ahshraf Ghani, has been in office for 18 months now, never attracting

:30:53.:30:55.

quite as much attention in the West It may be good news that the world

:30:56.:30:58.

is paying less attention to Afghanistan, but there

:30:59.:31:02.

is a continued outflow of the country's citizens keen

:31:03.:31:04.

to escape to richer nations. A quarter of the Mediterranean Sea

:31:05.:31:06.

arrivals so far this year have been The BBC's Yalda Hakim managed to get

:31:07.:31:09.

an interview with Ashraf Ghani about the migrant problem,

:31:10.:31:13.

and began by asking him why there has been an exodus

:31:14.:31:16.

of people from his country. This is one of the most

:31:17.:31:18.

connected societies on earth. Because it became

:31:19.:31:20.

a country of refugees. In Europe, in the United States,

:31:21.:31:22.

in North America, Australia. We have at least a million

:31:23.:31:25.

people who have settled. They have a million ties that bind

:31:26.:31:27.

them with others so they pull. We're very proud of our Afghans,

:31:28.:31:30.

they are now hyphenated Afghans. Particularly the social model

:31:31.:31:34.

in Europe, the social welfare model, the welfare state, has

:31:35.:31:39.

done well by Afghans. In Germany, for instance,

:31:40.:31:43.

they have done extraordinary things. The push factors are,

:31:44.:31:49.

a war has been imposed upon us. The departure of not just

:31:50.:31:53.

international troops but the contractors took away

:31:54.:31:58.

a million upper middle-class people This is a country where,

:31:59.:32:01.

for 15 years, a lot of blood and treasure has gone in to create

:32:02.:32:10.

a stable society. Sure, but it has also created one

:32:11.:32:13.

of the most corrupt sets The inheritance of that is 41%

:32:14.:32:17.

of people living below poverty. Yes, it is a country that has become

:32:18.:32:26.

the platform for a regional We are at war but we're

:32:27.:32:31.

not at civil war. The war between Afghans is a very

:32:32.:32:40.

small component of a regional Al-Qaeda, unfortunately,

:32:41.:32:43.

has gone deep and dark, Daesh is active here,

:32:44.:32:53.

as it has done atrocious things. When I warned about the fear

:32:54.:33:01.

of Daesh, it was not heeded, They said that this country

:33:02.:33:04.

would become a graveyard for Daesh. But we also have the greatest

:33:05.:33:11.

medium-term threat. Massive numbers of Pakistani Taliban

:33:12.:33:19.

are being transposed Why, then, are Europeans

:33:20.:33:22.

sending Afghans back, saying that they are economic

:33:23.:33:27.

migrants, that they only come to Europe because of

:33:28.:33:29.

poverty and not war? The social contract in Europe

:33:30.:33:33.

vis-a-vis refugees was articulated In a period of liberalism's heyday

:33:34.:33:44.

and welfare strength. That model, unfortunately,

:33:45.:33:51.

is being re-negotiated. But there are also people

:33:52.:33:55.

fleeing persecution. 11,000 people were

:33:56.:33:57.

killed in this country. Did you ask the people of the UK

:33:58.:34:00.

when Hitler was in the ascent Please understand, we have

:34:01.:34:09.

to make a commitment. 549 young men and women graduated

:34:10.:34:18.

from the military academy. They are making a commitment

:34:19.:34:24.

to defend this country. Others on whom we have spent

:34:25.:34:37.

hundreds of millions of dollars who want to leave under

:34:38.:34:39.

the slightest pressure. If you want to have a country,

:34:40.:34:41.

you need to have the will. It is not the slightest

:34:42.:34:47.

pressure, though. In the last year we have

:34:48.:34:49.

seen the worst violence. They are making that

:34:50.:34:51.

dangerous journey. They are impoverishing

:34:52.:35:00.

their families in order Because that journey was based

:35:01.:35:10.

on false assumptions. Do we stand up for our right

:35:11.:35:14.

to breathe and our right to live Countries do not survive

:35:15.:35:23.

by their best attempting to flee. My goal is to make sure

:35:24.:35:36.

that my people live If we don't stand up in the face

:35:37.:35:42.

of the threat, and the threats are very real, my life

:35:43.:35:52.

is threatened everyday. I go to different

:35:53.:35:56.

parts of Afghanistan. But you have the protection that

:35:57.:36:00.

other Afghans don't. You think when rockets

:36:01.:36:02.

are fired at you, you have When bombs are thrown at you,

:36:03.:36:04.

you have protection against it? If I had that sense,

:36:05.:36:08.

I would surround myself Genuine is always better

:36:09.:36:10.

than fake, but is fake better A topic discussed in many

:36:11.:36:30.

different areas of life, The technology of 3D printing drawn

:36:31.:36:34.

from multiple photographs means we have the power to create detailed

:36:35.:36:40.

replicas more easily This, in fact, is a replica

:36:41.:36:43.

in the making - a monumental scale reconstruction of the Triumphal Arch

:36:44.:36:47.

from Palmyra's Temple of Bel. The real arch was destroyed by Isis

:36:48.:36:49.

when they occupied the ancient city. This one, built in blocks, will be

:36:50.:36:52.

installed on Trafalgar Square, then it goes to New York

:36:53.:36:55.

and then Palmyra itself. So how far can replica substitute

:36:56.:37:02.

for a destroyed past? Should you even contemplate putting

:37:03.:37:05.

replicas on the sites Joining me now in the studio

:37:06.:37:07.

is Dr Alexy Karenowska, the director of technology

:37:08.:37:12.

at the Institute of And from Edinburgh is author

:37:13.:37:14.

James Crawford, whose book Fallen Glory tells the story of some

:37:15.:37:19.

of the world's greatest Tell us about your group. How well

:37:20.:37:29.

can you make a replica? How realistic? Very realistic indeed,

:37:30.:37:36.

our processes or a combination of architectural 3D printing and 3D

:37:37.:37:41.

machine work can reproduce objects to the level of sub millimetre

:37:42.:37:47.

precision. There are a series of surface techniques we can use to

:37:48.:37:51.

reproduce the effects of weathering and ageing and the general

:37:52.:37:56.

appearance. And the material, not plastic, what is it? We are working

:37:57.:38:04.

on technology which combines real stone, the arch in Trafalgar Square

:38:05.:38:09.

will be marble and Geo composite materials, artificial stones from 3D

:38:10.:38:19.

printing. What is the purpose? There are many, in the context of

:38:20.:38:23.

large-scale reconstruction, what we're doing is exploring

:38:24.:38:26.

technologies that we believe can make a real difference

:38:27.:38:29.

reconstructing regions like Syria which have been badly damaged and

:38:30.:38:35.

these technologies open the door for producing a way of producing and

:38:36.:38:43.

preserving the cultural heritage, the tangible and intangible aspects

:38:44.:38:47.

of that. And really keeping the living history of these areas alive.

:38:48.:38:52.

James, does this excite you? It does. The technology is fantastic,

:38:53.:39:00.

it is or inspiring in the true sense of that phrase and my concern is not

:39:01.:39:06.

what shall happen in Trafalgar Square and Times Square, and they

:39:07.:39:11.

will be visiting, it is the idea of reconstructing on the actual site of

:39:12.:39:15.

Palymyra itself. Tell me why you would not want this archway to go

:39:16.:39:20.

back to where it was before Isis destroyed it? One of the things that

:39:21.:39:26.

it brings to mind is the theory that comes from robotics and in the

:39:27.:39:32.

1970s, the uncanny Valley, that machines will get to the point where

:39:33.:39:37.

they were so close to humans, instead of us empathising, we

:39:38.:39:42.

respond to them with revulsion and there is a danger with this

:39:43.:39:44.

reconstruction of archaeology that we might respond to Palmyra in the

:39:45.:39:52.

same way, but it becomes uncanny and what a tragic end for this city, but

:39:53.:39:57.

when we visit it, we feel this sense of unease. Why would we feel that?

:39:58.:40:04.

You will see the arch in Palymyra, you will barely be able to tell that

:40:05.:40:08.

it was not the original, that has some subtle effect? Very much so,

:40:09.:40:14.

you will barely be able to tell and you might not realise it but as time

:40:15.:40:20.

goes by, that response, this concept of revulsion and that has happened

:40:21.:40:25.

before, in 1900, an English antiquarian bought up the site at

:40:26.:40:33.

Crete and brought this with -- rebuilt it with reinforced concrete

:40:34.:40:36.

and some people thought this was fantastic but even while, when he

:40:37.:40:39.

went on a Mediterranean cruise, and visited the site, he thought this

:40:40.:40:44.

was a place of oppressive wickedness so there is a danger when you engage

:40:45.:40:50.

in this process of reconstruction, it can have a negative impact. Is

:40:51.:40:56.

the plan to put the reconstructed arch back with the original was or

:40:57.:41:00.

to put it in a museum 500 metres away? Several things are important,

:41:01.:41:07.

the overall aim of this project is to move towards on-site

:41:08.:41:09.

reconstruction of the installation in Trafalgar Square and India work

:41:10.:41:15.

or a demonstration of this technology and in response to the

:41:16.:41:18.

point that were made, I would agree that it is extremely important that

:41:19.:41:21.

we understand that the reconstruction is not the original

:41:22.:41:25.

and it would be wrong to put objects on the site and claim that they are

:41:26.:41:29.

something they are not. But I think it is also important to realise that

:41:30.:41:34.

there is a huge tragedy in the complete loss of these physical

:41:35.:41:38.

objects and yet the physical objects themselves are not the only element

:41:39.:41:42.

of the cultural heritage they represent. I think that we have to

:41:43.:41:49.

balance here respect for the site but also making sure we do not get

:41:50.:41:54.

caught up too much in what we might describe as the romance of the

:41:55.:42:00.

Roman, it is important that we are not too attached to the physical

:42:01.:42:07.

objects. We can talk about this longer but we don't have the time.

:42:08.:42:12.

Thank you both very much. That is all we have time for, Kirsty will be

:42:13.:42:20.

here tomorrow. Good night. Temperatures falling out there under

:42:21.:42:30.

largely clear skies and a touch of frost first thing tomorrow, showers

:42:31.:42:34.

over south-east of Scotland and North East England and they could be

:42:35.:42:37.

heavy through the day with the few showers developing elsewhere. Some

:42:38.:42:42.

lively ones are parts of Northern Ireland staying dry with sunshine

:42:43.:42:46.

and reaching double figures, largely dry in northern Scotland and we will

:42:47.:42:48.

start the day before freezing

:42:49.:42:49.