29/03/2016 Newsnight


In-depth investigation and analysis of the stories behind the day's headlines with Evan Davis. With live reaction as Tata announces it will sell its entire UK steel business.

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Shocking news for the steel industry tonight.


Rather than invest new money, as some had hoped, Tata Steel


reportedly wants to sell its UK operations.


In Port Talbot, the news is just sinking in.


We'll ask what future steel has in Britain.


Is it time to take the propaganda seriously?


We look at the evidence that North Korea is further down


the nuclear path than we thought - a bigger threat than we feared.


Harvey Proctor on his ordeal at the hands of the Met Police


Is there any good reason that in a rich country


Bitterly sad news breaking tonight for workers in the British


It's not official, but it appears that Tata Steel -


the company that is the successor to the old British Steel Corporation,


which then became Corus - is said to want to sell


The decision was reported out of a make or break meeting in Mumbai


and among the assets being sold, the Port Talbot plant,


which plays such an important part in the economic life in south


Thousands more are employed elsewhere in the country, of course.


The fear is that if no one wants to buy the assets,


and they are losing hundreds of millions of pounds a year,


Stephen Kinnock is the MP for the area and as with the delegation in


Mumbai and has been given his reaction. The board of Tata Steel is


not going to back the turnaround plan. That was presented to them.


And they have asked their European board to look at all of the options


for the future of the business and we then await the outcome of that.


Clearly, one of those options is to look at looking for a buyer, an


alternative buyer for the business. Simon Jack is the BBC's business


editor and he joins me now Let us go through the best and worst


scenarios, the best case tonight, what is the most optimistic it can


be? The news that came out of Mumbai this evening in the last hour, we


had this flurry of briefings and the deal they hoped to get done, but


turnaround plan that would have seen Tata investing extra money as


turning hundreds of millions of losses every year into a profit


within two years, that was rejected. That is undoubtedly a big set back


and the options were talking about is the sale of all the remaining


businesses here the UK, they are already selling some of them but the


long products business that Port Talbot performs the hub of would-be


opera sale but whoever would want to buy a plant that is losing ?1


million every day? When I spoke to the company they did not confirm it


was up for sale but they did steer me in the direction of some of the


other was Mrs which has shown an interest in the steel industry in


this country, businesses like the liberty group, who have been in the


process of buying some from the owners and grey ball capital, in the


process of buying some of the business in Scunthorpe. They floated


some of those names and there might well be a process and there is some


scepticism. Liberty, whether they would want to take on something like


this, but there must be some glimmer of hope but this is not the answer


that unions and management wanted. The nightmare scenario is that


companies like that might say they will have a little bit here and


there but they do not want the bulk of the business, it is losing money,


and Tata cannot make this work and if nobody buys this, we'll Tata tell


us what the plan is? To shut it down or what? They will not tell us what


the other planners. -- plan is. It is impossible to imagine that


somebody could take over the business losing as much money as


this and turn it around without major structural changes and job


losses so there is uncertainty for the thousands of workers, many of


whom whose jobs are still at risk and the government is making noises


about looking at viable options but there does not seem to be that many


viable options on the table, this sale is pretty much the last chance


saloon. Simon, thank you. We will speak to somebody who works at the


steel Talbot -- steel plant in Port Talbot. First, Angela Eagle. Simon


is looking at the options, can you think of any the government at this


point can look at? The steel industry is cyclical and at the


moment we're in the middle of a perfect storm. Clearly, you have to


try about what you can do about sheltering assets in the industry


until this storm passes so you can keep a capacity as a country to keep


creating and making your own steel, which is fundamental to the


manufacturing industry. 20,000 people are directly employed in UK


steel at the moment and many more are in the supply industries and the


government should be pulling out all of the stops to make certain that we


can preserve our capacity to make steel. One of the options is the


government was simply by the industry for some notional amount,


from Tata Steel, pick up the assets and become the Steward of those


assets until the point at which it can sell them, effectively


nationalisation. This has been done in other instances before and we do


know that the assets you have in a steel-making plant have to be


properly looked after or they will be lost forever, which is what we


saw with the government letting the Redcar blast furnace be destroyed by


inaction and it would be vandalism if they do that in this case. I do


not want to get into Brexit at this point but this may come to bear on


this but if the government did pick up this company and hold the assets,


do their run foul of EU state aid regulations? There are ways in which


you can ensure that you protect assets in this way and can negotiate


with the -- with the EU and it is a bit much for those using... And all


of the distress in the community is wondering what will happen to their


future, in Port Talbot or Rotherham or South Yorkshire or parts of


Scotland. We have to try to get the government to actually deliver on


assertions from the Prime Minister that they want to preserve our


capacity to make steel in this country and if not, we will see this


Tonight at the Games said that the ant hypocrisy. -- this tea and


sympathy. You do believe that steel has potential in this country? Yes,


it is a foundation industry, we're on the cusp of huge investment in


our own infrastructure and steel is a strategic industry for defence


purposes and energy and every look at what is happening with you clear


building, we have to preserve that and it will pay for itself in the


end. Thank you. Joining me now from Port Talbot


is Tony Taylor, who worked at the steel plant there for 44


years and is now a councillor. What is your reaction to this news?


It is unofficial but what is your reaction? I think some partial shock


because we did not expect this today, we thought that Tata would


get behind us and support the rescue plan and keep the faith at Port


Talbot. Tata Steel have been marvellous players and have invested


a lot of money in this plant and they have come to the end of their


patients but just a little longer would have kept us in good stead and


we hopefully could have kept this plant open for future generations. I


am not saying we cannot do this, it could be a viable plan to some time


in the future. Tony, who do you blame for the difficulties in the


British steel industry, and they are not unique to Britain. But very


intense difficulties in the UK? You have to look at the dumping of


Chinese steel. They have been producing hundreds of millions of


tonnes and virtually giving it away. We are unable to withstand that


because we have been protecting the industry, protecting livelihoods and


local jobs and that is one part of this. The heavy energy crisis, the


plant behind me, it uses the same amount of energy as a city the size


of Bristol or Cardiff, you can imagine the costs to pay for all of


that so we have not been helped by the local government, the Welsh


Government, the national government... Tony, thank you.


What North Korea wants is a small nuclear device that can fit on a big


missile - a ballistic missile that can exit the atmosphere,


and then successfully re-enter and detonate its cargo almost


If it has that, no-one will make fun of North Korea


So how close is the country, to getting that technology?


We all know there have been nuclear tests and the claim of a hydrogen


bomb, but not the holy grail of a small device


Now, Newsnight has had first sight of a new account of the North Korean


nuclear programme from the respected defence analysts at IHS Jane's.


They think it's possible the North does have a miniature device


Newsnight has been told that North Korea is closer than thought


to creating a nuclear device small enough to fit


in to an intercontinental ballistic missile capable of hitting the US.


New images and analysis obtained by Newsnight suggest that


North Korea's nuclear programme may already have


In recent weeks there has been a huge amount of rhetoric coming


from North Korea, including a threat to directly attack


To do that they would need to use an intercontinental ballistic


missile, armed with a nuclear warhead.


And there are huge challenges to that.


But information given to Newsnight exclusively suggests they may be


Analysts have carried out computer modelling based on this news report


of Kim Jong-un visiting what is supposed to be a missile


These images probably show mock-ups but the defence intelligence company


IHS Jane's says there are sufficient details in the background to assess


The crucial issues are, can they militarise a nuclear


warhead and can they design what is known as a re-entry vehicle?


The part of the missile that comes back into the atmosphere before


If that is not designed correctly, it would simply burn up.


I spoke to Rob Monks, the IHS Jane's expert who has


collated the work of analysts based in the US.


They have now done the computer modelling to calculate the static


margin, which is basically the aerodynamic stability.


And from that they have concluded that the North Koreans have both


reduced the size and weight of a nuclear explosive device


sufficiently to fit it inside a re-entry vehicle.


And indeed that the design of the re-entry vehicle itself


according to the computer modelling would appear to be viable.


The second strand of evidence comes from satellites,


radar images showing new roads and earthworks which could indicate


We have used radar imagery for the first time to have a look


Associated with the North Korean nuclear programme.


And that appears to suggest there has actually been increased


activity where media reporting suggested diminished activity.


The third strand of evidence is a satellite image of a plutonium


reprocessing facility that shows increased activity over


North Korea is determined to keep working on this, so the effort


And it provides some measure of how far they may be getting to the final


goal of an intercontinental missile armed


And so it would suggest they are getting closer to that.


But North Korea already has the capability to mount a nuclear


So the instability of their current leader may be the real threat


I spoke to one source tonight who has got close knowledge


of inside thinking at MI6 and he said that beyond these


technical issues, the key factor is the assessment of


Is he crazy enough to launch an unprovoked attack?


The new images and analysis from IHS Jane's suggests North Korea


is getting closer to its ambition of a nuclear armed intercontinental


Probably some way off that yet, my intelligence source tells me


that the role of China in restraining the leader


The intent and increasingly the capability, it seems, is there.


Joining me now is John Everard, former British ambassador to North


And from New York, Richard Haass, former director of policy planning


for the State Department, and currently president


To start with a direct question. Who would you do no sleepover, Isis or


North Korea at this point? At this point it is North Korea and over the


next few years certainly that concern will grow. It is not geared


to me that the US will find it tolerable to live in a situation


where North Korea as you discussed, can put a small nuclear warhead on


ballistic missile but could reach the western part of the US. Also


concern that Isis and North Korea could do something together, how do


we know North Korea under some circumstances would not make nuclear


material available to a group like Isis for a considerable amount of


currency. Again raises fundamental questions about whether this could


or should all would be rather a tolerable to the next American


president. Kim Jong-un is not the normal leader. Do you think he would


ever contemplate using a nuclear weapon? I do. I think there is an


assumption that seems to be growing but North Korea would never actually


use its nuclear weapons for fear of the devastating counterattack. I


think that assumption is dangerous. The North Koreans have made quite a


few statements about the circumstances in which they would


use their nuclear weapons. Which amount to what you might call a hair


trigger policy. That they know they face of all the superiority by US


allies and they say if provoked they would use nuclear weapon. That is


very scary, basically they have got nuclear weapons and may get to the


small nuclear device on the ballistic missile. It is scary,


probably better not yet a weapon they can deliver over a long


distance at their moving swiftly in that direction. Do you agree that


they would contemplate using them because presumably they are the most


likely user of a nuclear weapon on the planet at the moment. The answer


is we do not know. Why would we want to run the risk question mark this


country has committed slow motion genocide against its own people so


it is quite possible the threat of retaliation does not discourage them


or deter them. They are as bellicose and as armed regime that exists in


the world so it is not obvious to me while we would want to run the risk.


And I look at China, at South Korea and Japan, at my own country the US,


we all allowed this situation to drift. These negotiations have done


little except to give North Korea time to make the advances you have


just discussed. And I do think at some point sooner rather than later


the policy question will arise, are we prepared to live with this risk


and this uncertainty or would it be better to do something about it.


Then you put economic pressure on North Korea or contemplate some kind


of military strike, be it a preventative military attack or if


we ever get intelligence that North Korea for example has taken some


missiles and seems to be leading them for launch, that we would


launch ourselves. These are all worrisome scenarios. Why would


anyone want to trust the judgment of the leadership of North Korea? What


to think of the analysis? Most of it I agree with. It is important to


understand, when you talk about trusting the judgment of the leader


of North Korea, these people are not crazy. They calculate carefully but


they play a different set of rules to the rest of us. But then the


dignity of the regime is supreme. And we cannot be sure they're not


prepared to risk nuclear war in defence of what they believe,


however strange it may seem to us. We think there will be a big


congress in North Korea in the month of May, the coronation of Kim


Jong-un. Up until then they cannot afford to show weakness and we can


expect to see more provocations, more missile launchers and more


difficult actions by North Korea in that time. Worrisome conversation.


Thank you both. Having heartily showered our faces


in eggs last year, you might think we'd run a million miles


from opinion polls in the run up But hey, we just


can't help ourselves. So let's think about the referendum


polls for the next few minutes, because there is a rather


interesting feature of them. The phone polls indicate the Remain


side is in the lead, the internet


polls make it too close to call. If you want to predict the result,


it could all hinge on which of those Our Policy Editor Chris Cook has had


an exclusive look at a piece of work by Populus, a pollster,


and Matt Singh, an analyst who - almost uniquely - called the last


general election correctly. Pollsters do not make money from


politics but it is where their biggest problems come from. In 2015,


1982, 1970. But a new report out tonight Casa big question on how the


industry built samples for opinion polls.


This has become a pressing issue because of the European referendum.


Pollsters have got to get into our homes, into our heads and work out


what we're inking about this rather unusual question. They have got a


mystery to solve. When they poll people online they seem to get one


set of answers from British people and when they pull them by telephone


they seem to be getting another. Populous work for the Conservatives


and the Leave campaign and they commissioned an outside analysts to


help them work out what was going on.


Now as part of this research Populus conducted a number of polls.


For example they did what you might call


That found that Leave was six points ahead.


They also did what you might call the classic telephone poll


and that found that Remain was 11 points ahead.


So a massive 16 percentage points gap that gives different


The report works out things by asking the same question to the two


routes and comparing the answers and back in fact -- by comparison to the


British election study, a unique bowl quite unlike any other full


stop high quality face-to-face samples of the best we have in


survey research for two main reasons. One example from postcode


address files and randomly dealt within households so pretty much


everyone has the chance to be included in the sample. Then they


also make extra effort to do with beaded call-backs if people are out


or try to persuade them to participate and get response rates


which are quite high. The independent researcher on the


project was Matt sing, the analyst behind number cruncher policies. It


finds that the importance of online polls offer I do not know optional


front whereas the telephone polls do not. A section of voters if prompted


with a do not know optional, they will tend to say do not know. In


reality they do not seem to be undecided because if they are not


wanted with the do not know optional, they go but heavily


towards Leave. So from that we take that the effect of adding a do not


know optional on the online poll that is not there on the ballot


paper tends to increase the level of do not know heavily at the expense


of Remain. That explains around one third of the gap between telephone


and online polls. Now a major issue identified


by this research is with That is how pollsters


select respondents and Now if we go back to that gold


standard British elections studies survey that we mentioned earlier,


we find around 32% of British people think racial equality has


not gone far enough. And if we ask people the same


question in an online poll, If we asked them on the phone poll,


around 40% of people think that. So you can see from those answers


that phone polls are a bit more liberal, if you like,


than the national average and online polls are a bit more


socially conservative. When you adjust the samples so that


answers to these kind of questions matched the British election survey,


half of the gap between online polls and telephone poles disappears.


So we have a 16 percentage point gap between the two sorts of polls


First of all, the different treatment of don't knows,


that adds around five percentage points to the gap.


The fact there are too many conservatives in the samples built


by online pollsters, that adds around three percentage


The fact there are too many liberals in the samples built


by phone pollsters, that adds around five percentage points to the gap.


There are still three percentage points we cannot account


for but you can see from this, this research indicates


that the right answer as far as we can tell might be a bit closer


to the phone pollsters than it is to the online pollsters.


It appears that the online polls are too much towards Leave and telephone


1's a bit too much towards Remain. From the work we have done it


appears that the truth is probably between the two but closer to what


the telephone ones are saying. To put numbers on it we would say about


two thirds of the way towards phone opinion polls. We will know who is


right until the votes are counted and China will determine much of


that. In the short term we can say things look a bit better for Remain


then a crude average of the polls would suggest. And in the medium


term the pollsters need to start thinking about how they will


samples. Harvey Proctor - former Tory MP -


has had a traumatic 18 months. He was investigated


in Operation Midland, never charged or arrested


but investigated for murder, torture and historic sexual


abuse of young boys. All on the basis of the testimony


of one man, known as Nick. Well, Operation Midland has closed,


Mr Proctor has no case to answer and has written a book of his life


and his recent experience. He joins me now. You have placed a


copy of the book on the table. We spoke about this case in August


before you were told there was to be no charge. At the time you called it


a homosexual witchhunt. I wonder now it is past, do you still see it that


way? The following day, someone contacted my solicitor and


reinforced what I had said on your programme. It is in the book, I will


not go into details tonight, but I do think that certain elements of


the Metropolitan Police are homophobic. They have been other


people obviously who have been through the mill but you have been


through. Who are not gay and have not, no one has ever suggested they


are and I wonder whether a better or different way to look at it is just


that the police did not use to take these things seriously and now have


thought, by goodness, we've got to take these things more seriously and


perhaps gone off in the other direction. The pendulum has swung


because of the nature of those involved in the investigation. Again


I cover that in the book. What you mean, the pendulum has swung, you


think it has too far? I think quite a number of people think it has


swung too far. I believe that the best interests of the genuine victim


and survivor of child sexual abuse is to restore it to a better balance


between suspect and complainant. You do not disagree when police say we


have got to follow what allegations? Of course the police have got to


investigate, it is the manner of the investigation. The calling of the


witness, credible and true, before they had even got any corroboration,


any other evidence whatsoever and before they had spoken to me or the


other people who were alive. You put a lot of attention on the police.


Just tell me about your reaction if you like to the rest of society at


the media, the way these things are covered, the public and their view


of these issues. Do you have, the politicians, who has stood and


watched people like you in the dock for over a year. I just wonder if


you think it is a bigger thing than just the police. The police are the


driving force in this. But certain politicians have put pressure on


certain ministers, namely the Home Secretary, to establish for example


a so-called independent enquiry to child sexual abuse. This enquiry is


one of two enquiries that the Metropolitan Police have suggested


should investigate their own misdeeds. Quite strongly. The


Goddard enquiry, the big overarching went into all allegations, came into


law. You said you do not want to be part of that. It has become an


industry and it is not the right formula for investing --


investigating Operation Midland. It was set up to do something


different. Not to investigate the police and their ways of getting it


wrong this last 18 months. I would separate those things and I


believe the enquiry has become an industry and an ongoing enquiry that


was supposed to end in six years but it will never end, it will go on. I


am interested in this because when you talk to older people, they will


often have tales of a teacher or a neighbour or somebody who did to


them when they were young, things that would be called sexual assault.


Fondling and groping, not murder or torture or rape, but lots of people


have those stories. What is society meant to do with that history? That


backlog of cases, having changed our view is so markedly towards that,


taking it much more seriously? It is a question of rarities and I think


the Metropolitan Police and other forces have got their priorities


wrong. They should concentrate on current abuse, not historic abuse.


And where historic abuse is investigated, they have to have even


more corroboration land in present cases. Tell me how you are now? You


have been deeply traumatised, he said it had ruined your life. You


said you had lost your job, your home, tell me what your mature real


circumstances are? I do not know what I am going to do, I am hoping


that something may come of this, I am not wealthy, I need to work. I


need the money and all of my planning was based on continuing to


work, at least for another six years, and all of that has gone by.


So I need something to happen. I have got no plans. The plan was to


write the book, I have written the book 's. You were always known as a


very right-wing member of the Conservative party. Just right. Have


you become more socially liberal over the years? Partly through this?


It is for others to judge. I always believed that I was dead centre of


my political spectrum, others fell to the left or right and on some


issues, you might be regarded as right-wing... Have you moved to the


left as you have grown older? When you see the way that gay men have a


better time than you did in the 1970s and 1980s? I am pleased about


that for them. Not for you? I have been much too preoccupied with my


own difficulties. I have every right to have been preoccupied and I had


to take on the Metropolitan Police from what they have been doing to me


and others. And it has been a hard fight and a hard struggle. Harvey


Proctor, thank you. Walk around any city in the UK,


and you will not be surprised to encounter people sleeping


on the streets, tucked up The published numbers of street


sleepers have been rising sharply. The stories of how people end up


there are often complicated. And you probably don't have time


to hear them let alone But here's a question:


in 100 years' time, when future people look


back on our society, will they ask how we


tolerated rough sleeping? It surely can't cost that much


to make sure everybody has a bed, or mental health


provision if necessary? Well, we'll ask why the problem


is unsolved in a few minutes, but first, the voice of rough


sleepers themselves. This piece was put together for us,


by the film-maker Dave Young. You want to know what it's


like to be homeless? On a day-to-day basis I'm


surrounded by crackheads, It's not like I want to be involved,


but it's a road I found myself on. Like many people on this road,


their lives are so complex It is probably the reason why we're


all in this mess. And we don't even


control the lights. And when it's windy and blistering


cold in the darkest of November's nights, our only wish


is to feel warm inside. A luxury we all miss,


like a sweet kiss. I split with my wife,


lived on a barge. The barge caught fire,


I lost everything. I ended up with what I was wearing


and ?26 in my pocket. The key worker told me I would be


on the streets for six months. After that six months,


the council could still take two Up until recently, Bristol only ever


admitted to seven homeless people. And it's probably gone over


the 200 mark now. And they all have their scared look


on their face. I used to drive coaches


all around the UK. My Nan died and I got kicked out


by my uncle because the house I have a big problem,


because I'm in a tent, I can't get my driving licence


changed because I don't So without having my license


updated, to this new address, If it is after seven then I can go


20 minutes to Sainsbury's. But if I do, I stay in the tent


in my sleeping bag and just I have been homeless for seven


and a half months. In the town centre to start


with but I was very anxious of night We were in a little two-man tent


to start with and then somebody donated his tent and you can


see behind us. If it was not for the general


public, we would be knackered. If I have to find a job,


I actually have to take all of my luggage to my job with me,


which is not viable, As well is that, I have


to carry my dirty stuff with my clean stuff,


find somewhere to wash it and try it, put it all back


into the same place. From months of walking,


not wearing proper shoes. But I cannot help that,


I cannot afford shoes. I live in a winter


shelter as of the moment. We get fed at about 7:30am


in the morning and then, until about 8.30pm at night,


there is nothing else to eat. When we do have money,


we're having to spend that money on fast food because it is not


like we have the resources to cook We cannot store food,


we cannot even store our clothes. I became homeless when my


sister lost her house. The first night was


terrible, definitely. I was sitting there,


crying to myself, thinking, I cannot believe, all I want to do


as a 26-year-old is just a normal We come here at eight o'clock


at night time and then we get called Because I go to college


two days a week. Those two days I'm OK and some days,


even if I don't have college, I would be in the library


doing my work, to kill the time off. It is great to have somewhere that


you can go to at night and you can lie down, it is warm,


you get good food, warm food to eat. My parents told me to ignore


homeless people on the streets because they obviously


declined the help. But I could never


really accept that. I have now seen it first-hand


and I'm meeting people, all different age groups,


ethnicities, genders, We're handing over our fate


and someone else is in control I think there is a system in place


but it is not a system designed for helping people, it is a system


designed for keeping people I decided to start helping other


people. And I managed to get three people


off the streets, into housing. In a washing machine


factory in Bristol. And if I can do it, why can't


an institute like the council do it? Basically, it is a problem


all around Manchester, the homeless. But if you haven't got a local


connection, you are not a priority. That is why I became homeless


because I had to leave my house due to an ex-partner,


for personal reasons. I went travelling and lost


my local connection. They give you shelters but they only


give you shelters for so long and then they kick you out


again so you are back They need to sort it out,


really, because it is It is just getting worse,


it is never getting better. I have been living like this


for a year and I am sick of it. It is my own fault because I


walked out of my job. I walked out because I


could not cope any more. I don't take drugs,


I don't do whatever, On average I read about


three novels a week. To escape from the reality


of what I am living in. Whenever you put yourself in a book


you could be anywhere. Anywhere in the world,


doing anything. I just don't know whose


dream I am living. Voices from a city street near you,


put together by Dave Young. Back to our main story tonight now -


the expected announcement from Steel giant Tata to sell its


loss-making UK business. Chris Cook is our policy editor


and has been speaking to people What are they saying? What I was


struck by is they are going beyond platitudes and say how devoted they


are to the steel industry but contrary to what Angela Eagle said


earlier, they are concerned by the prospect of putting the government


in as a backstop because they believe they could run up very big


bills and they could run into the EU Commission. They are talking about


facilitating a deal, a private sector solution, putting up


government cash through loans and guarantees and talking about using


procurement to swing more business that way. On their own, they will


not rescue Port Talbot but they were things that might make it easier for


a private sector solution. You can do some of those things and not rub


against the state aid? Exactly. Thank you. That is all we have time


for. We will hear more about that story tomorrow. From all of us, good


night. Today was a day of sunshine and


showers and tomorrow will be sunshine and showers but they are


not the same and there will be fewer showers around tomorrow, still some


heavy ones knocking about what a good chance that you will avoid them


and see lots of fine weather. This is a snapshot from mid-afternoon,




With live reaction as Tata announces it will sell its entire UK steel business. Plus Harvey Proctor interviewed on Operation Midland claims. And is North Korea's nuclear programme more of a threat than we thought?

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