06/06/2016 Newsnight


06/06/2016

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But wasn't it supposed to be immigration?

:00:08.:00:13.

Does a shift in course for the Leave campaign suggest the wind

:00:14.:00:16.

And what they called their counter attack on the economy.

:00:17.:00:34.

The economy was supposed to be their Achilles heel

:00:35.:00:36.

but the latest round of campaigning suggests some Leavers believe it

:00:37.:00:39.

And we've learned that even if the Leavers do prevail,

:00:40.:00:42.

Whitehall mandarins are considering plans that

:00:43.:00:44.

would kick any curbs on immigration into the long grass We'll ask this

:00:45.:00:47.

minister if post-Brexit Britain will bear much resemblance

:00:48.:00:49.

Also tonight: I believe the Republican nominee should never get

:00:50.:00:53.

near the White House. Hillary Clinton edges ever closer to

:00:54.:00:54.

history. neither an unemployment benefit nor

:00:55.:00:56.

a Dire Straits song? When it's part of a universal

:00:57.:01:08.

basic income, of course. And apparently it's

:01:09.:01:10.

on the agenda for Labour. It's internecine, intra-party

:01:11.:01:20.

and increasingly international. But if there's one thing

:01:21.:01:24.

upon which most participants in the Referendum campaigns can

:01:25.:01:27.

agree, it is that you can't There might be a new one

:01:28.:01:30.

popping up every day but, in the shadow of last year's epic

:01:31.:01:35.

failure to predict anything close they are to be taken with a cellar

:01:36.:01:37.

full of salt. And yet there is a sense abroad that

:01:38.:01:46.

Leave campaigners today turned their attention back

:01:47.:01:48.

to the economy, arguably their weakest card,

:01:49.:01:50.

because they feel they've more or less sewn up immigration,

:01:51.:01:52.

inarguably their strongest. And while this may not be

:01:53.:01:54.

prompting conniptions on the Remain side just yet,

:01:55.:01:56.

it seems to be causing concern. Newsnight's Political Editor Nick

:01:57.:02:01.

Watt joins me now to run a rule over all

:02:02.:02:03.

things Referendum. Just how much concern? The mood in

:02:04.:02:19.

Remain is nervous. I was speaking to a senior figure. He said it is time

:02:20.:02:27.

to quote Sir Alex Ferguson, it is squeaky bum time. He said that the

:02:28.:02:39.

Remain side had had a good run. But this morning there was a poll that

:02:40.:02:44.

said Leave one redhead had were driving immigration as a concern

:02:45.:02:51.

among voters. -- were ahead and worse. One minister said, while we

:02:52.:02:58.

not hearing from the PM talking about his great deal on Europe where

:02:59.:03:03.

he imposed a four year ban on EU migrants claiming in work benefits.

:03:04.:03:07.

Another minister said, the PM must talk about immigration but he can't

:03:08.:03:11.

because it would mean talking about his proposal target to bring net

:03:12.:03:16.

migration and out of the tens of thousands and this minister said

:03:17.:03:20.

that, of course, is unworkable. Will we see a shift in tone or tactic?

:03:21.:03:27.

The message is clear from the Central command of the Remain camp,

:03:28.:03:32.

they say the economy is their trump card and they will stick with that.

:03:33.:03:40.

It will only make Brexit more angry. The issue on which you can swing

:03:41.:03:45.

voters is the economy. That is why in increasingly buoyant and

:03:46.:03:48.

confident vote leave campaign were not just talking about the economy,

:03:49.:03:52.

they were delivering what one source described to me as a counterpunch.

:03:53.:03:56.

Let's come in and make the case that staying in the EE was the greater

:03:57.:03:59.

risk on the economy, talking about how the UK might be liable for

:04:00.:04:05.

future Eurozone bailouts. -- EU. Disputed by the PM. But vote leave

:04:06.:04:09.

say it will not be plain sailing. More issues to come ahead. There

:04:10.:04:14.

will be a mansion house speech from David Cameron as a statement from

:04:15.:04:19.

Christine Lagarde, head of the IMF. Thanks. Andrea Leadsom, part of the

:04:20.:04:26.

vote leave campaign, joins me now. The day the referendum was

:04:27.:04:29.

announced, the day Boris Johnson gave a mighty boost to your site by

:04:30.:04:35.

announcing he would support it, and the day the polls seem to be turning

:04:36.:04:40.

in your favour, the pound fell on all three occasions, do you know

:04:41.:04:46.

why? -- your side. It has dipped, that's true. It is a floating

:04:47.:04:51.

currency. It goes up and down every day. If you look at whether Pounders

:04:52.:04:56.

versus the Duro, it is roughly about where it was when the PM came back

:04:57.:05:03.

with his renegotiation. -- pound is versus the euro. Every time it drops

:05:04.:05:08.

a cent against the euro or the dollar, everybody goes on about

:05:09.:05:13.

it... That wasn't my question. It is not every time the pound drops that

:05:14.:05:19.

they are claiming every link -- a link. There must be a unifying theme

:05:20.:05:29.

is to buy the markets respond so pessimistically. Every time the sun

:05:30.:05:32.

shines on the leave campaign the pound drops. By a small amount.

:05:33.:05:38.

There is a saying in the city, by on the rumour, sell on the fact. It

:05:39.:05:42.

means it is a bit of jargon which means, what happens is volatility in

:05:43.:05:47.

advance of a big event, where traders position themselves to try

:05:48.:05:53.

and make money. That is their job. When the event happens, they hope to

:05:54.:05:56.

take their profits and to carry on with the new reality. That is why it

:05:57.:06:03.

was so disturbing that the governor of the Bank of England should make

:06:04.:06:06.

an intervention in this debate and start claiming unprovable

:06:07.:06:11.

assertions. Because his job is, in fact, financial stability. The

:06:12.:06:17.

talking down of the economy by people on the Remain side is

:06:18.:06:22.

increasing volatility. You will find on June the 23rd, if we vote to

:06:23.:06:27.

leave, those things will settle down. You mentioned the city and the

:06:28.:06:32.

euro. Your former employer in the city has focused on the euro and

:06:33.:06:39.

warned that sterling may reach parity with the euro from its

:06:40.:06:43.

current level of 1.25 if it is a vote to leave. That is your former

:06:44.:06:51.

employer. Economic forecasting is an honourable profession, but it is

:06:52.:06:54.

only as good as the assumptions you put into it. We have seen a raft of

:06:55.:07:00.

economic assumptions, including from the Treasury, that effectively say

:07:01.:07:04.

that if we leave we wait the geisha at any trade other than a basic

:07:05.:07:06.

free-trade -- that effectively say that if we

:07:07.:07:23.

leave we will only negotiate trade, other than a basic free-trade

:07:24.:07:31.

agreement... You mentioned Treasury forecasts being unreliable, whether

:07:32.:07:33.

unreliable when you were in the Treasury? No. Economic forecasting

:07:34.:07:39.

is an honourable profession. But it is only as good as the assumptions

:07:40.:07:44.

you put in. To answer that question, the person I worked with there for

:07:45.:07:47.

many years, one of the great investors in the UK, who invest

:07:48.:07:52.

daily in day out in our pensions and so on, his company says, actually,

:07:53.:07:58.

there will not be a huge impact from Brexit. People like Roger Bootle.

:07:59.:08:03.

Highly regarded in the city. Saying there may be some short-term

:08:04.:08:07.

volatility but long-term it will be better off. It is only as good as

:08:08.:08:13.

the assumptions you put into it. It is difficult to find somebody to

:08:14.:08:16.

trust. The voters are finding it difficult to find people to trust.

:08:17.:08:21.

That isn't the issue. I am a vote and it is the issue. It isn't. You

:08:22.:08:27.

cannot predict what you are going to have for dinner next week. -- voter.

:08:28.:08:34.

I accept the middle ground. Can we find somebody, like Martin Lewis,

:08:35.:08:39.

the journalist, from the money saving expert website. Here's a man

:08:40.:08:44.

most trusted by the British public to provide guidance on this issue

:08:45.:08:48.

and he did today. He described himself as a risk averse, which is

:08:49.:08:56.

why he is in of Remain. People who prefer to gamble are in favour of

:08:57.:09:02.

Leave, for example, he said. Can we trust him? This isn't an issue of

:09:03.:09:09.

trust. The issue is it is not possible to see with a crystal ball

:09:10.:09:14.

into the future. Economic forecasting relies on assumptions

:09:15.:09:21.

going into the model. Martin Lewis is saying he is risk averse. His

:09:22.:09:25.

assessment, his personal opinion, is that it is riskier to leave that

:09:26.:09:31.

remain. My assessment after 25-year is in finance is that it is far

:09:32.:09:36.

riskier to stay. Leaving means we can negotiate trade with the world,

:09:37.:09:41.

the 80% of the world not in the EU. And then to stay in the EU risks our

:09:42.:09:47.

economy being incredibly damaged by the stagnation of the European

:09:48.:09:52.

economies. And by the fact our budgetary contributions are under

:09:53.:09:57.

control of the EU, not under control of the UK. Can we trust the man who

:09:58.:10:05.

has been roundly told by the IMF he has used the figures wrong? Michael

:10:06.:10:16.

Gove, of course. -- wrongly. It is not possible to predict with

:10:17.:10:20.

precision every prediction relies on your assumptions. If you assume

:10:21.:10:26.

negative inputs, you will get negative outputs. It isn't a matter

:10:27.:10:29.

of trust, it is a matter of those are the facts. Many thanks.

:10:30.:10:33.

Given that they pretty much run the gamut from apocalyptic nightmare

:10:34.:10:35.

to a land of milk and honey, you could be forgiven for thinking

:10:36.:10:38.

that all predictions of what the UK might look like in the event

:10:39.:10:42.

of a vote to leave had been exhaustively explored.

:10:43.:10:44.

There is a new option gathering momentum in Whitehall that would see

:10:45.:10:50.

civil servants working furiously to hold on to as much commercial

:10:51.:10:53.

union as possible in the event of a political schism.

:10:54.:10:58.

It's even got a neologism of its own: Flexit.

:10:59.:11:00.

Whichever way we vote in this referendum, Britain will go

:11:01.:11:12.

The destinations on offer are not too clear.

:11:13.:11:16.

Especially as campaigners fighting on each side cannot promise

:11:17.:11:18.

Newsnight has learned that civil servants are seriously

:11:19.:11:35.

considering a route to Brexit which is not the same

:11:36.:11:38.

The question on the referendum ballot sheet is extremely simple,

:11:39.:11:41.

should we remain members of the European Union,

:11:42.:11:43.

But on both sides there are uncertainties.

:11:44.:11:48.

For Remain, we don't know how the future political and economic

:11:49.:11:55.

circumstances of the EU will change it.

:11:56.:11:57.

For Leave, the principal set of unknowns are about our future

:11:58.:11:59.

trading relationships with our big partners.

:12:00.:12:01.

Particularly the European Union itself.

:12:02.:12:07.

The official Vote Leave campaign wants us at some

:12:08.:12:09.

They argue that would let us trade more with faster growing parts

:12:10.:12:16.

of the world, cut EU red tape, and cut net immigration.

:12:17.:12:20.

If Britain does vote to go it alone and leave the European Union,

:12:21.:12:24.

an important principle to consider is this, the more Britain

:12:25.:12:30.

uses its new liberties to vary its rules from those

:12:31.:12:36.

uses its new liberties to vary its rules from those applying

:12:37.:12:39.

from across the European Union, be they about veterinary care,

:12:40.:12:41.

or immigration, the more likely it is that Britain will find

:12:42.:12:44.

itself facing barriers to trade in with the EU.

:12:45.:12:51.

Be they tariffs, or be it simple administrative tariffs,

:12:52.:12:53.

Vote Leave's principal argument is that any losses we might suffer

:12:54.:12:56.

on access to the EU's internal market will be more than made up

:12:57.:12:59.

for by trading elsewhere in the world, and by the loss

:13:00.:13:02.

To its fans, the appeal of Vote Leave's plan,

:13:03.:13:08.

which envisages a lot of difference from now, is precisely that it

:13:09.:13:11.

It is important to remember that even if Vote Leave win

:13:12.:13:36.

on the 23rd of June, Vote Leave won't be

:13:37.:13:38.

And they won't be deciding what our future relationship

:13:39.:13:42.

with the EU will be, that will be up to the officials,

:13:43.:13:45.

I have been speaking to a lot of civil servants who are likely

:13:46.:13:49.

to be involved in any renegotiation with our relationship with Europe

:13:50.:13:52.

And one thing is quite striking, their vision for what Britain's life

:13:53.:13:56.

will be like outside the EU is quite different to the one being put

:13:57.:13:59.

A number of very similar plans are being considered in Whitehall

:14:00.:14:03.

on the potential road ahead from a Brexit vote.

:14:04.:14:05.

These route maps by pro-Brexit thinkers are known by names

:14:06.:14:07.

like Flexit, Europe 2.0, or, in Roland Smith's case,

:14:08.:14:10.

How would you go about leaving the EU?

:14:11.:14:13.

We have to, initially, protect the economics.

:14:14.:14:15.

That means getting into an EEA position rather

:14:16.:14:24.

That means retaining lots of EU rules and regulations?

:14:25.:14:28.

At that point it means retaining a lot of stuff to do

:14:29.:14:30.

So yes, we do jettison a lot of other things to do

:14:31.:14:34.

with political union, and we jettison some big policies

:14:35.:14:37.

like the common agricultural policy and common fisheries policy.

:14:38.:14:39.

Lots of civil servants like a Norway style European Economic Area

:14:40.:14:54.

membership as the first leg of any Brexit journey to minimise

:14:55.:14:57.

We could then disentangle further at a slower speed

:14:58.:15:00.

Some even think this strategy could prove a model

:15:01.:15:03.

You would have a Europe which is a small, incredibly

:15:04.:15:07.

integrated space where you have one single currency.

:15:08.:15:09.

Where those countries really pull sovereignty and in effect become

:15:10.:15:11.

And you have everyone else in Europe who is part of a free-trade space

:15:12.:15:20.

in close partnership with Eurozone Europe,

:15:21.:15:22.

but it's not done as intensely, regulated, and is sort

:15:23.:15:24.

It would allow those who want maximum integration to have it.

:15:25.:15:33.

It would allow everyone else to do it at their own pace.

:15:34.:15:36.

But these schemes have a big political weak spot.

:15:37.:15:43.

Why is it you think Vote Leave haven't gone for your road map?

:15:44.:15:46.

I think perhaps because they have chosen immigration

:15:47.:15:48.

Immigration is a big issue in this country.

:15:49.:15:51.

As we all know. As I accept, as well.

:15:52.:15:54.

My issue with it is that the economy is a bigger issue, and that keeps

:15:55.:15:57.

coming up in polls time after time, and therefore, for me,

:15:58.:16:00.

that is what we actually need to focus on in the first instance.

:16:01.:16:03.

The Remain campaign has plenty of criticism of this model, as well.

:16:04.:16:06.

The Leave campaign have said if we leave the EU,

:16:07.:16:08.

they want us to leave the single market, leave the EU entirely,

:16:09.:16:11.

If we were to follow the Norwegian EEA model,

:16:12.:16:22.

that wouldn't have a mandate,

:16:23.:16:29.

and it wouldn't achieve the things the Leave campaign say

:16:30.:16:31.

We wouldn't be able to stop free movement of people.

:16:32.:16:35.

We would still have to accept most EU rules with no say over

:16:36.:16:39.

And we would still have to pay into the EU budget.

:16:40.:16:42.

So it is far worse than the deal we have now.

:16:43.:16:45.

Today, BBC News revealed that lots of Pro-Remain MPs

:16:46.:16:47.

They will have Whitehall allies, too.

:16:48.:16:50.

But if Vote Leave win this campaign

:16:51.:16:52.

ministers may feel they will have to cut immigration,

:16:53.:16:54.

especially as the Prime Minister might well soon be from Vote Leave.

:16:55.:16:57.

This is what happens when you post simple referendum questions

:16:58.:16:59.

STUDIO: Still with me is Energy Minister Andrea Leadsom,

:17:00.:17:15.

and joining her is former head of the World Trade

:17:16.:17:17.

The European project feel slightly threatened by the prospect of Brexit

:17:18.:17:26.

but that report notwithstanding, in the event of a vote to leave, the

:17:27.:17:29.

union will bend over backwards to keep Britain as close to the centre

:17:30.:17:42.

of business as possible, surely? That is speculation and the reality

:17:43.:17:46.

is quite different, the reason the UK joined the European Union 40

:17:47.:17:53.

years ago was free trade. If the UK leaves, it leaves the union, and it

:17:54.:17:59.

leaves this free trade zone and the single market. It will import more,

:18:00.:18:12.

because of the zero tariff which the Brexit campaign says will occur

:18:13.:18:17.

after having left, so less exports, because of tariffs in the European

:18:18.:18:22.

Union, 50% of UK export, plus the 50 other countries with which the EU

:18:23.:18:28.

has preferential trade agreements. More imports, less exports, less

:18:29.:18:34.

production, less jobs. That is the equation. That is also speculation,

:18:35.:18:43.

of course. I have been in trade negotiations for 20 years, they are

:18:44.:18:49.

not about love, they are about hard numbers, they are about clout, they

:18:50.:18:57.

are about bargaining capacity. Standing alone, the UK loses the

:18:58.:19:00.

bargaining capacity that it has with other countries because it belonged

:19:01.:19:05.

to the European Union and because the European Union is 500 million

:19:06.:19:11.

consumers. That is the reason the US, Canada and Mexico have a

:19:12.:19:18.

free-trade agreement. Trade is a world of elephants. 500 million.

:19:19.:19:23.

China, India, more than 1 billion! That is what trade is about, that is

:19:24.:19:28.

what trade negotiations are about. Look at the UK, outside in the cold?

:19:29.:19:35.

More imports, less exports. That is roughly what I call shooting oneself

:19:36.:19:39.

in the foot! We will not be an elephant anymore, I'm not sure what

:19:40.:19:44.

we will be but it will not be anywhere near as big. The EU has

:19:45.:19:47.

Nick Dougherty negotiated free-trade agreements with economies of the

:19:48.:19:53.

size of about 7 trillion US dollars, that is the EU elephant,

:19:54.:19:57.

Switzerland, population of less than 30 million, has negotiated

:19:58.:20:00.

free-trade around the world with the economic size of about 27 trillion.

:20:01.:20:07.

-- the EU has negotiated free-trade agreements. The fleetness of it is

:20:08.:20:12.

vital, the EU's own numbers themselves showed that because of

:20:13.:20:15.

their failure to negotiate free-trade agreements with some of

:20:16.:20:19.

the biggest economies in the world, the UK's jobs have been impacted

:20:20.:20:22.

negatively to the tune of nearly 300,000 jobs. Had we negotiated

:20:23.:20:28.

free-trade with big economies, that could have been what the UK

:20:29.:20:32.

achieved. If we leave the EU, we will be able to negotiate those

:20:33.:20:38.

free-trade agreements on our own. I'm sorry to say but free trade is

:20:39.:20:44.

about negotiations. What will you negotiate? What will you offer to

:20:45.:20:53.

the people you negotiate with? Your policy is zero tariff on the UK

:20:54.:20:56.

market. What will you offer to the others? If they have free access to

:20:57.:21:02.

your market, they will not give you anything, if they have free access,

:21:03.:21:08.

it does not make sense. What is a trade negotiation, it is a deal, I

:21:09.:21:11.

give you something, you give me something. If you have given me free

:21:12.:21:15.

access to the market, which is what is being said, then there is not any

:21:16.:21:23.

more reason to have a deal! The campaign is not saying that the UK

:21:24.:21:28.

will have zero tariffs. Of course it is, I have read very carefully what

:21:29.:21:33.

you're colleague Patrick Milford has said, and he said, zero tariffs.

:21:34.:21:39.

He's not speaking for the vote Leave campaign, he has his individual

:21:40.:21:45.

views... I'm sorry to say, then, you are going to close the economy?

:21:46.:21:55.

Let's hear from her. We will undergo shed free-trade, you will be aware

:21:56.:21:58.

that the average time taken is 28 months, on average, as I have said,

:21:59.:22:03.

the likes of Switzerland and Iceland and Singapore, they have negotiated

:22:04.:22:08.

free-trade agreements with all of the world's biggest economies. The

:22:09.:22:13.

UK will plan to do the same. They have negotiated an agreement because

:22:14.:22:16.

they have a protected economy, which they have open. I know Switzerland,

:22:17.:22:21.

and Switzerland is a very protected economy. These countries have a

:22:22.:22:26.

protected economy, and what they do in a negotiation, they love the

:22:27.:22:32.

protection for the price of market access everywhere. That is why

:22:33.:22:36.

Switzerland negotiated a free-trade agreement with China, except... And

:22:37.:22:43.

the European Union has not. Except in that case, the deal is fairly

:22:44.:22:48.

unbalanced because China is a huge market and Switzerland is a small

:22:49.:22:53.

market. The UK is the world's biggest economy. Unbalanced trade

:22:54.:22:57.

deal, if that is what you want...? It is not a good reason, you may

:22:58.:23:02.

have other reasons, and I am not entering into that because this is

:23:03.:23:07.

my area of expertise. I sense this conversation has barely begun, but

:23:08.:23:11.

unfortunately, for the purpose of this evening, at least, it must come

:23:12.:23:15.

to an end. Thank you very much for joining us.

:23:16.:23:19.

Hilary Clinton is tonight within touching distance

:23:20.:23:21.

of becoming the first female Presidential nominee

:23:22.:23:23.

Barring a surprise of Biblical proportions,

:23:24.:23:25.

tomorrow's primaries in five US states

:23:26.:23:27.

will see her secure enough support to see off Senator Bernie Sanders,

:23:28.:23:30.

her remaining rival for the Democratic Party's candidacy.

:23:31.:23:31.

But it has been an angry and occasionally vicious battle,

:23:32.:23:34.

except, I suppose, by the standards of the Republican Party this year,

:23:35.:23:37.

that she will need to heal some serious wounds in her own party

:23:38.:23:41.

Newsnight's Diplomatic Editor Mark Urban reports.

:23:42.:23:55.

VOICEOVER: Running for president is not for shrinking violets, shake

:23:56.:24:01.

that many hands, down another drinks, should enough hoops, you may

:24:02.:24:06.

soon not know when it is time to quit. That at least is how many

:24:07.:24:11.

Democrats feel about Bernie Sanders, the last primaries are looming, all

:24:12.:24:16.

of the polling insists it will be a trump Clinton battle. Over the last

:24:17.:24:23.

month, where the maths has not been there for him anymore, and he has

:24:24.:24:28.

stayed in the race, there has been an increasing impatience from the

:24:29.:24:31.

supporters of Hillary Clinton for him to get out but it is appropriate

:24:32.:24:36.

for him to stay in until tomorrow. There are primaries in six states

:24:37.:24:42.

tomorrow, California alone has 546 delegates up for grabs. Hillary

:24:43.:24:49.

Clinton is just 23 short of getting the 2383 delegates that she needs to

:24:50.:24:54.

secure the nomination. It is almost impossible for Bernie Sanders to win

:24:55.:24:59.

now, but he may have shown his party a path to a different type of

:25:00.:25:04.

politics. What the party establishment is learning from this

:25:05.:25:08.

experience in 2016 is that the party is going through a transition, the

:25:09.:25:11.

real energy in the Democratic party here is in the progressive wing, and

:25:12.:25:18.

it foreshadows a lot of fights to come within the Democratic party as

:25:19.:25:21.

it evolves into something considerably more progressive than

:25:22.:25:26.

it is right now. Everyone now expects this election to be Clinton

:25:27.:25:32.

against Trump, and his supporters have been stepping up attacks at

:25:33.:25:35.

that way on public distrust of the Clinton plan. I never told anybody

:25:36.:25:41.

it is a lie... These allegations are full. She, too, is turning her

:25:42.:25:49.

campaign towards the main event. -- these allegations are false. In the

:25:50.:25:57.

last few weeks he has criticised places allies, has praised

:25:58.:26:01.

dictators, like in North Korea, has advocated pulling out of Nato, our

:26:02.:26:07.

strongest military alliance...! Has said, in very cavalier ways, and he

:26:08.:26:12.

doesn't really mind if other countries get nuclear weapons,

:26:13.:26:15.

including Saudi Arabia. As for that apparently unstoppable Trump

:26:16.:26:20.

bandwagon... The Clinton campaign now seems confident that a little

:26:21.:26:26.

humour and light character assassination will work just fine.

:26:27.:26:32.

There is a way to talk about his statements, there is a way to paint

:26:33.:26:36.

a picture, if you will, for the general electorate, the voters who

:26:37.:26:41.

will vote in the fall, about what a Donald Trump presidency might look

:26:42.:26:45.

like. Her strategy between now and election day is to make that

:26:46.:26:49.

unacceptable to a large percentage of people who will vote in the fall.

:26:50.:26:55.

The success of the Sanders and Trump campaigns ought to have taught

:26:56.:26:59.

Hillary Clinton's people that the rejection of politics as usual is

:27:00.:27:06.

now deep in America, Donald Trump has emerged largely unscathed for

:27:07.:27:09.

months of negative campaigning. Enormous concern on the Democratic

:27:10.:27:15.

side, there is a Teflon aspect to Donald Trump's candidacy, how do you

:27:16.:27:20.

run against a candidate like that? Unfamiliar to rain, no candidate has

:27:21.:27:24.

ever run against a candidate like Donald Trump, with the bombast and

:27:25.:27:27.

the ability to chew through new cycle after new cycle, it is

:27:28.:27:30.

something the Democrats are sitting in conference rooms and about what

:27:31.:27:34.

will stick, nothing has stuck so far. With voting immanent in

:27:35.:27:40.

California and five other states, Hillary Clinton must now convince

:27:41.:27:45.

her party and the wider country that she really can be the unifier.

:27:46.:27:53.

STUDIO: Joining me now is Democratic strategist and Bernie Sanders

:27:54.:27:55.

And Democratic pollster and Hillary Clinton

:27:56.:27:58.

Harlan, will your man bow out gracefully, if the numbers stack up

:27:59.:28:09.

as expected? I don't expect that at all, he has very clearly

:28:10.:28:13.

communicated that he has the money and resources and backing to stay

:28:14.:28:17.

through up until the convention, regardless of the results, he has a

:28:18.:28:20.

very good chance, he has the most momentum going into tomorrow, he

:28:21.:28:26.

will stay through the convention. Unity be damp? Well, I think he is

:28:27.:28:30.

putting the middle class, the American worker, before party

:28:31.:28:34.

politics, a lot of people respect him for that, myself included. -- be

:28:35.:28:42.

damned. Do you think that Bernie Sanders is motivating Democratic

:28:43.:28:46.

supporters or damaging the position of your candidate? Bernie Sanders

:28:47.:28:51.

has played a very important role in the campaign so far, articulated in

:28:52.:28:56.

economic agenda that is very powerful, spoken to the need for

:28:57.:29:01.

change, mobilise voters, and I see no reason why he cannot continue to

:29:02.:29:05.

the convention doing the same thing. What I hope is that we are united in

:29:06.:29:11.

turning focus on Donald Trump, and I think Bernie Sanders this weekend

:29:12.:29:14.

gave a very powerful speech, talking about Donald Trump, nothing could be

:29:15.:29:19.

more of an anathema to Bernie Sanders, then a billionaire who has

:29:20.:29:27.

profited at the expense of ordinary people who will not unionise his

:29:28.:29:30.

workers, who has brought in immigrant workforce, because he can

:29:31.:29:36.

pay them less, who has cheated people out of their college

:29:37.:29:39.

educations and is a racist and a misogynist to boot!... I would say

:29:40.:29:44.

that is very unifying the Democrats, I hope Hillary Clinton and Bernie

:29:45.:29:48.

Sanders speaks eloquently do that. Numbers suggest a significant number

:29:49.:29:52.

of Bernie Sanders supporters are more likely to support Trump than

:29:53.:29:54.

Hillary ...? I think those numbers are deceptive.

:29:55.:30:10.

As Bernie Sanders speaks to Donald Trump and draws the contrast, I

:30:11.:30:15.

don't think that's true. I think it is a momentary expression of

:30:16.:30:18.

frustration. The Bernie Sanders voters have no thing in common with

:30:19.:30:26.

Donald Trump. No issue positions in common with Donald Trump. Do you

:30:27.:30:31.

recognise that description? Absolutely not. There is commonality

:30:32.:30:37.

between a candidate like Bernie Sanders and Donald Trump. Both

:30:38.:30:42.

antiestablishment candidates. Both taking issue with trade. Hillary

:30:43.:30:45.

Clinton is on the wrong side of trade. Her husband was the architect

:30:46.:30:51.

of this. She negotiated the GP in the State Department. Between the

:30:52.:30:56.

two, it will lead to lots of jobs being taken overseas. -- negotiated

:30:57.:31:05.

the TTP. They are doing cold, hard calculations, saying I don't really

:31:06.:31:08.

like Donald Trump but Hillary Clinton is on the wrong side of

:31:09.:31:12.

trade. She has supported every war since Vietnam. She voted for every

:31:13.:31:18.

invasion of Iraq. She is on the wrong side. She is a

:31:19.:31:21.

multimillionaire in her own right. These dispersions that she is...

:31:22.:31:28.

That Donald Trump is hard to relate to because he is extraordinarily

:31:29.:31:32.

wealthy, I think they also stick to Hillary Clinton. You are a

:31:33.:31:37.

democratic strategist, who would you vote for? Clinton versus Trump, who

:31:38.:31:44.

would you vote for? Right now I am taking a hard look at Trump. I can't

:31:45.:31:49.

believe I'm saying it. I think Hillary Clinton has a 30 year track

:31:50.:31:54.

record of lies, deceit, and fraud. I don't trust her. The e-mail thing

:31:55.:31:59.

was the straw that broke the camel 's back for me. She put her on

:32:00.:32:03.

political expediency ahead of national security. She destroyed

:32:04.:32:07.

evidence as part of the investigation. I have real issues

:32:08.:32:11.

with her, I don't trust her. This is the real deal, not opinion polls,

:32:12.:32:15.

this is a Democratic strategist who is thinking about voting for Trump,

:32:16.:32:22.

this is a problem. He has a problem. But I don't imagine you will vote

:32:23.:32:28.

for someone who called a Mexican judge, my black voter. And the way

:32:29.:32:38.

he has treated women. Who wants to expand nuclear weapons. I can

:32:39.:32:42.

appreciate you are frustrated, but I cannot imagine that any Democrat

:32:43.:32:48.

would vote for Donald Trump. And the data shows it is less than seven to

:32:49.:32:54.

9% of voters. I think our bigger issue is turnout. That percentage is

:32:55.:33:01.

quite meaningful, particularly where it happens. You know better than

:33:02.:33:06.

anyone. Probably one of the top pollsters in the Democratic party.

:33:07.:33:11.

In certain states, amongst certain constituencies, that swing vote

:33:12.:33:15.

could be very meaningful. I am sure Bernie Sanders will endorse Hillary

:33:16.:33:19.

Clinton. And I am positive he will do everything he can in his power

:33:20.:33:22.

because of what he stands for and what he believes in and the kind of

:33:23.:33:26.

person he has worked his whole life to be. To reassure people that

:33:27.:33:31.

Hillary Clinton is the better vote over Donald Trump. We saw the same

:33:32.:33:37.

fight in 2008. There was all of this discussion about would Hillary

:33:38.:33:40.

supporters really vote for Barack Obama, Hillary voted for him and all

:33:41.:33:46.

of her supporters did, as well. Many thanks.

:33:47.:33:47.

He has a catchy slogan, "new economics",

:33:48.:33:49.

but shadow chancellor John McDonnel has thus far

:33:50.:33:51.

failed to offer much by way of policies to fit the description.

:33:52.:33:54.

It's particularly interesting, then, that he chose tonight to attend

:33:55.:33:57.

the Westminster launch of a report proposing the abolition

:33:58.:33:59.

of means-tested benefits in favour of a flat rate payment for everyone,

:34:00.:34:02.

the so-called "universal basic income."

:34:03.:34:07.

It is, he said earlier, an idea that Labour will be looking

:34:08.:34:09.

Joining me now to work out what it might look like is.

:34:10.:34:20.

Andy Stern's book is getting attention in the US and beyond. And

:34:21.:34:31.

the cheaper to call commentate at the Independent also joins me. --

:34:32.:34:36.

and chief political commentator as the independent also joins me.

:34:37.:34:42.

If you believe a lot of reputable research by Oxford University,

:34:43.:34:52.

McKinsey, Deloitte, the world economic, or most recent, the noble

:34:53.:34:56.

laureate who said that a storm of destruction to the job market is on

:34:57.:35:01.

the way because of the acceleration of technology, we would be really

:35:02.:35:03.

foolish not to prepare for that storm. -- Nobel laureate. We need to

:35:04.:35:10.

prepare for the disruptions of the job market. Because people will not

:35:11.:35:15.

be paid to do a job, the solution is to pay them not to do a job? We are

:35:16.:35:22.

talking about setting a floor for people. We are not saying people

:35:23.:35:26.

won't work or earning come, but we are saying that the ability to earn

:35:27.:35:30.

a full-time job like I was able to do in my lifetime is going to be

:35:31.:35:34.

become more difficult. Technology isn't just affecting blue-collar

:35:35.:35:40.

workers, it is in other industries and other areas of finance. We have

:35:41.:35:44.

to understand that we would arrive at a time when there is not enough

:35:45.:35:49.

work for people to do that. We want economic stability in our economy.

:35:50.:35:52.

We don't want all of these means tested programmes. We want to give

:35:53.:35:56.

people a floor so they have some security. An attractive proposition

:35:57.:36:02.

at first glance. It is a lovely idea. Imagine there is no heaven.

:36:03.:36:11.

Everybody who has ever looked at it has thought, wouldn't it be nice if.

:36:12.:36:16.

Problem is, you cannot actually make it work. It involves spending so

:36:17.:36:23.

much money on people who wouldn't otherwise need it. You would have to

:36:24.:36:29.

put tax rate up to... One model I have seen offers a basic income of

:36:30.:36:34.

8000 per year but it involves putting up the basic rate of tax up

:36:35.:36:39.

to 48p in the pound. I don't think it is politically possible. That

:36:40.:36:43.

scheme doesn't even deal with housing benefit or council tax

:36:44.:36:48.

credit. It is too complicated. It is going to cost too much, B-2 -- it be

:36:49.:36:56.

complicated, but you are selling lots of books. We have something

:36:57.:37:01.

very simple in our country, it is called Social Security. It is

:37:02.:37:06.

universal. It is paid for by contributions from individuals. $1.7

:37:07.:37:14.

trillion. The current system is worth about 8 billion. Our country

:37:15.:37:18.

doesn't have VAT. There are lots of things we can in this country. A lot

:37:19.:37:23.

of the money that is paid to wealthier people would be clawed

:37:24.:37:27.

back by the tax system. We have to first decide, is this a good idea,

:37:28.:37:31.

and I think it is one. Then we have to think about how to pay for it.

:37:32.:37:38.

Charles Murray, a conservative, and Andy Stern both agree on the

:37:39.:37:44.

concept. We are three Nobel laureates agreeing on the concept.

:37:45.:37:50.

We should do the maths, I think it would work. Why did Swiss voters

:37:51.:37:57.

reject it yesterday? It is premature in Switzerland. The poll around it

:37:58.:38:01.

said 70% of Swiss voters say in the next 25 years they think it is

:38:02.:38:06.

inevitable. Switzerland is a successful country, doesn't have

:38:07.:38:09.

much property, technology isn't really affecting it, but I think

:38:10.:38:13.

they did an enormous contribution. They have sparked a global debate.

:38:14.:38:18.

It is now in the UK, Justin Trudeau, according to the US, the UN,

:38:19.:38:23.

everybody is talking about it. Maybe there is a better way to end

:38:24.:38:27.

poverty, provide benefits, so we can deal with the upcoming change and

:38:28.:38:31.

destruction in the job market. That's the crucial point, the

:38:32.:38:35.

upcoming change, do you know they're rather robots who can do journalism?

:38:36.:38:42.

We will all be out of a job. -- there are even robots. It is as old

:38:43.:38:47.

and idea as the basic income. The idea that technology will put

:38:48.:38:51.

everybody out of work, and change the nature of work. Let's wait and

:38:52.:38:55.

see what actually happens. The problem with the basic income is

:38:56.:39:01.

that you cannot... Driverless trucks, soon, which is a big part of

:39:02.:39:08.

the American economy. The British economy has continued to create jobs

:39:09.:39:13.

at an unprecedented rate, too. The job market will change. It won't

:39:14.:39:17.

mean people won't have any work to do. That is the old utopian idea of

:39:18.:39:23.

Thomas Moore, he proposed this and proposed that people wouldn't have

:39:24.:39:26.

to do more than a couple of hours work each day. Cannot see any

:39:27.:39:33.

mileage in it at all? I think it is a lovely idea. Andy says do the

:39:34.:39:37.

maths, anybody who has finds it doesn't work. So let's concentrate

:39:38.:39:42.

on making the welfare system we have worked better rather than some

:39:43.:39:44.

utopian scheme which involves tearing it all up and starting

:39:45.:39:49.

again. Many thanks to you berries. That is all we have time for

:39:50.:39:51.

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