Browse content similar to 06/06/2016. Check below for episodes and series from the same categories and more!
Line | From | To | |
---|---|---|---|
But wasn't it supposed to be immigration? | :00:08. | :00:13. | |
Does a shift in course for the Leave campaign suggest the wind | :00:14. | :00:16. | |
And what they called their counter attack on the economy. | :00:17. | :00:34. | |
The economy was supposed to be their Achilles heel | :00:35. | :00:36. | |
but the latest round of campaigning suggests some Leavers believe it | :00:37. | :00:39. | |
And we've learned that even if the Leavers do prevail, | :00:40. | :00:42. | |
Whitehall mandarins are considering plans that | :00:43. | :00:44. | |
would kick any curbs on immigration into the long grass We'll ask this | :00:45. | :00:47. | |
minister if post-Brexit Britain will bear much resemblance | :00:48. | :00:49. | |
Also tonight: I believe the Republican nominee should never get | :00:50. | :00:53. | |
near the White House. Hillary Clinton edges ever closer to | :00:54. | :00:54. | |
history. neither an unemployment benefit nor | :00:55. | :00:56. | |
a Dire Straits song? When it's part of a universal | :00:57. | :01:08. | |
basic income, of course. And apparently it's | :01:09. | :01:10. | |
on the agenda for Labour. It's internecine, intra-party | :01:11. | :01:20. | |
and increasingly international. But if there's one thing | :01:21. | :01:24. | |
upon which most participants in the Referendum campaigns can | :01:25. | :01:27. | |
agree, it is that you can't There might be a new one | :01:28. | :01:30. | |
popping up every day but, in the shadow of last year's epic | :01:31. | :01:35. | |
failure to predict anything close they are to be taken with a cellar | :01:36. | :01:37. | |
full of salt. And yet there is a sense abroad that | :01:38. | :01:46. | |
Leave campaigners today turned their attention back | :01:47. | :01:48. | |
to the economy, arguably their weakest card, | :01:49. | :01:50. | |
because they feel they've more or less sewn up immigration, | :01:51. | :01:52. | |
inarguably their strongest. And while this may not be | :01:53. | :01:54. | |
prompting conniptions on the Remain side just yet, | :01:55. | :01:56. | |
it seems to be causing concern. Newsnight's Political Editor Nick | :01:57. | :02:01. | |
Watt joins me now to run a rule over all | :02:02. | :02:03. | |
things Referendum. Just how much concern? The mood in | :02:04. | :02:19. | |
Remain is nervous. I was speaking to a senior figure. He said it is time | :02:20. | :02:27. | |
to quote Sir Alex Ferguson, it is squeaky bum time. He said that the | :02:28. | :02:39. | |
Remain side had had a good run. But this morning there was a poll that | :02:40. | :02:44. | |
said Leave one redhead had were driving immigration as a concern | :02:45. | :02:51. | |
among voters. -- were ahead and worse. One minister said, while we | :02:52. | :02:58. | |
not hearing from the PM talking about his great deal on Europe where | :02:59. | :03:03. | |
he imposed a four year ban on EU migrants claiming in work benefits. | :03:04. | :03:07. | |
Another minister said, the PM must talk about immigration but he can't | :03:08. | :03:11. | |
because it would mean talking about his proposal target to bring net | :03:12. | :03:16. | |
migration and out of the tens of thousands and this minister said | :03:17. | :03:20. | |
that, of course, is unworkable. Will we see a shift in tone or tactic? | :03:21. | :03:27. | |
The message is clear from the Central command of the Remain camp, | :03:28. | :03:32. | |
they say the economy is their trump card and they will stick with that. | :03:33. | :03:40. | |
It will only make Brexit more angry. The issue on which you can swing | :03:41. | :03:45. | |
voters is the economy. That is why in increasingly buoyant and | :03:46. | :03:48. | |
confident vote leave campaign were not just talking about the economy, | :03:49. | :03:52. | |
they were delivering what one source described to me as a counterpunch. | :03:53. | :03:56. | |
Let's come in and make the case that staying in the EE was the greater | :03:57. | :03:59. | |
risk on the economy, talking about how the UK might be liable for | :04:00. | :04:05. | |
future Eurozone bailouts. -- EU. Disputed by the PM. But vote leave | :04:06. | :04:09. | |
say it will not be plain sailing. More issues to come ahead. There | :04:10. | :04:14. | |
will be a mansion house speech from David Cameron as a statement from | :04:15. | :04:19. | |
Christine Lagarde, head of the IMF. Thanks. Andrea Leadsom, part of the | :04:20. | :04:26. | |
vote leave campaign, joins me now. The day the referendum was | :04:27. | :04:29. | |
announced, the day Boris Johnson gave a mighty boost to your site by | :04:30. | :04:35. | |
announcing he would support it, and the day the polls seem to be turning | :04:36. | :04:40. | |
in your favour, the pound fell on all three occasions, do you know | :04:41. | :04:46. | |
why? -- your side. It has dipped, that's true. It is a floating | :04:47. | :04:51. | |
currency. It goes up and down every day. If you look at whether Pounders | :04:52. | :04:56. | |
versus the Duro, it is roughly about where it was when the PM came back | :04:57. | :05:03. | |
with his renegotiation. -- pound is versus the euro. Every time it drops | :05:04. | :05:08. | |
a cent against the euro or the dollar, everybody goes on about | :05:09. | :05:13. | |
it... That wasn't my question. It is not every time the pound drops that | :05:14. | :05:19. | |
they are claiming every link -- a link. There must be a unifying theme | :05:20. | :05:29. | |
is to buy the markets respond so pessimistically. Every time the sun | :05:30. | :05:32. | |
shines on the leave campaign the pound drops. By a small amount. | :05:33. | :05:38. | |
There is a saying in the city, by on the rumour, sell on the fact. It | :05:39. | :05:42. | |
means it is a bit of jargon which means, what happens is volatility in | :05:43. | :05:47. | |
advance of a big event, where traders position themselves to try | :05:48. | :05:53. | |
and make money. That is their job. When the event happens, they hope to | :05:54. | :05:56. | |
take their profits and to carry on with the new reality. That is why it | :05:57. | :06:03. | |
was so disturbing that the governor of the Bank of England should make | :06:04. | :06:06. | |
an intervention in this debate and start claiming unprovable | :06:07. | :06:11. | |
assertions. Because his job is, in fact, financial stability. The | :06:12. | :06:17. | |
talking down of the economy by people on the Remain side is | :06:18. | :06:22. | |
increasing volatility. You will find on June the 23rd, if we vote to | :06:23. | :06:27. | |
leave, those things will settle down. You mentioned the city and the | :06:28. | :06:32. | |
euro. Your former employer in the city has focused on the euro and | :06:33. | :06:39. | |
warned that sterling may reach parity with the euro from its | :06:40. | :06:43. | |
current level of 1.25 if it is a vote to leave. That is your former | :06:44. | :06:51. | |
employer. Economic forecasting is an honourable profession, but it is | :06:52. | :06:54. | |
only as good as the assumptions you put into it. We have seen a raft of | :06:55. | :07:00. | |
economic assumptions, including from the Treasury, that effectively say | :07:01. | :07:04. | |
that if we leave we wait the geisha at any trade other than a basic | :07:05. | :07:06. | |
free-trade -- that effectively say that if we | :07:07. | :07:23. | |
leave we will only negotiate trade, other than a basic free-trade | :07:24. | :07:31. | |
agreement... You mentioned Treasury forecasts being unreliable, whether | :07:32. | :07:33. | |
unreliable when you were in the Treasury? No. Economic forecasting | :07:34. | :07:39. | |
is an honourable profession. But it is only as good as the assumptions | :07:40. | :07:44. | |
you put in. To answer that question, the person I worked with there for | :07:45. | :07:47. | |
many years, one of the great investors in the UK, who invest | :07:48. | :07:52. | |
daily in day out in our pensions and so on, his company says, actually, | :07:53. | :07:58. | |
there will not be a huge impact from Brexit. People like Roger Bootle. | :07:59. | :08:03. | |
Highly regarded in the city. Saying there may be some short-term | :08:04. | :08:07. | |
volatility but long-term it will be better off. It is only as good as | :08:08. | :08:13. | |
the assumptions you put into it. It is difficult to find somebody to | :08:14. | :08:16. | |
trust. The voters are finding it difficult to find people to trust. | :08:17. | :08:21. | |
That isn't the issue. I am a vote and it is the issue. It isn't. You | :08:22. | :08:27. | |
cannot predict what you are going to have for dinner next week. -- voter. | :08:28. | :08:34. | |
I accept the middle ground. Can we find somebody, like Martin Lewis, | :08:35. | :08:39. | |
the journalist, from the money saving expert website. Here's a man | :08:40. | :08:44. | |
most trusted by the British public to provide guidance on this issue | :08:45. | :08:48. | |
and he did today. He described himself as a risk averse, which is | :08:49. | :08:56. | |
why he is in of Remain. People who prefer to gamble are in favour of | :08:57. | :09:02. | |
Leave, for example, he said. Can we trust him? This isn't an issue of | :09:03. | :09:09. | |
trust. The issue is it is not possible to see with a crystal ball | :09:10. | :09:14. | |
into the future. Economic forecasting relies on assumptions | :09:15. | :09:21. | |
going into the model. Martin Lewis is saying he is risk averse. His | :09:22. | :09:25. | |
assessment, his personal opinion, is that it is riskier to leave that | :09:26. | :09:31. | |
remain. My assessment after 25-year is in finance is that it is far | :09:32. | :09:36. | |
riskier to stay. Leaving means we can negotiate trade with the world, | :09:37. | :09:41. | |
the 80% of the world not in the EU. And then to stay in the EU risks our | :09:42. | :09:47. | |
economy being incredibly damaged by the stagnation of the European | :09:48. | :09:52. | |
economies. And by the fact our budgetary contributions are under | :09:53. | :09:57. | |
control of the EU, not under control of the UK. Can we trust the man who | :09:58. | :10:05. | |
has been roundly told by the IMF he has used the figures wrong? Michael | :10:06. | :10:16. | |
Gove, of course. -- wrongly. It is not possible to predict with | :10:17. | :10:20. | |
precision every prediction relies on your assumptions. If you assume | :10:21. | :10:26. | |
negative inputs, you will get negative outputs. It isn't a matter | :10:27. | :10:29. | |
of trust, it is a matter of those are the facts. Many thanks. | :10:30. | :10:33. | |
Given that they pretty much run the gamut from apocalyptic nightmare | :10:34. | :10:35. | |
to a land of milk and honey, you could be forgiven for thinking | :10:36. | :10:38. | |
that all predictions of what the UK might look like in the event | :10:39. | :10:42. | |
of a vote to leave had been exhaustively explored. | :10:43. | :10:44. | |
There is a new option gathering momentum in Whitehall that would see | :10:45. | :10:50. | |
civil servants working furiously to hold on to as much commercial | :10:51. | :10:53. | |
union as possible in the event of a political schism. | :10:54. | :10:58. | |
It's even got a neologism of its own: Flexit. | :10:59. | :11:00. | |
Whichever way we vote in this referendum, Britain will go | :11:01. | :11:12. | |
The destinations on offer are not too clear. | :11:13. | :11:16. | |
Especially as campaigners fighting on each side cannot promise | :11:17. | :11:18. | |
Newsnight has learned that civil servants are seriously | :11:19. | :11:35. | |
considering a route to Brexit which is not the same | :11:36. | :11:38. | |
The question on the referendum ballot sheet is extremely simple, | :11:39. | :11:41. | |
should we remain members of the European Union, | :11:42. | :11:43. | |
But on both sides there are uncertainties. | :11:44. | :11:48. | |
For Remain, we don't know how the future political and economic | :11:49. | :11:55. | |
circumstances of the EU will change it. | :11:56. | :11:57. | |
For Leave, the principal set of unknowns are about our future | :11:58. | :11:59. | |
trading relationships with our big partners. | :12:00. | :12:01. | |
Particularly the European Union itself. | :12:02. | :12:07. | |
The official Vote Leave campaign wants us at some | :12:08. | :12:09. | |
They argue that would let us trade more with faster growing parts | :12:10. | :12:16. | |
of the world, cut EU red tape, and cut net immigration. | :12:17. | :12:20. | |
If Britain does vote to go it alone and leave the European Union, | :12:21. | :12:24. | |
an important principle to consider is this, the more Britain | :12:25. | :12:30. | |
uses its new liberties to vary its rules from those | :12:31. | :12:36. | |
uses its new liberties to vary its rules from those applying | :12:37. | :12:39. | |
from across the European Union, be they about veterinary care, | :12:40. | :12:41. | |
or immigration, the more likely it is that Britain will find | :12:42. | :12:44. | |
itself facing barriers to trade in with the EU. | :12:45. | :12:51. | |
Be they tariffs, or be it simple administrative tariffs, | :12:52. | :12:53. | |
Vote Leave's principal argument is that any losses we might suffer | :12:54. | :12:56. | |
on access to the EU's internal market will be more than made up | :12:57. | :12:59. | |
for by trading elsewhere in the world, and by the loss | :13:00. | :13:02. | |
To its fans, the appeal of Vote Leave's plan, | :13:03. | :13:08. | |
which envisages a lot of difference from now, is precisely that it | :13:09. | :13:11. | |
It is important to remember that even if Vote Leave win | :13:12. | :13:36. | |
on the 23rd of June, Vote Leave won't be | :13:37. | :13:38. | |
And they won't be deciding what our future relationship | :13:39. | :13:42. | |
with the EU will be, that will be up to the officials, | :13:43. | :13:45. | |
I have been speaking to a lot of civil servants who are likely | :13:46. | :13:49. | |
to be involved in any renegotiation with our relationship with Europe | :13:50. | :13:52. | |
And one thing is quite striking, their vision for what Britain's life | :13:53. | :13:56. | |
will be like outside the EU is quite different to the one being put | :13:57. | :13:59. | |
A number of very similar plans are being considered in Whitehall | :14:00. | :14:03. | |
on the potential road ahead from a Brexit vote. | :14:04. | :14:05. | |
These route maps by pro-Brexit thinkers are known by names | :14:06. | :14:07. | |
like Flexit, Europe 2.0, or, in Roland Smith's case, | :14:08. | :14:10. | |
How would you go about leaving the EU? | :14:11. | :14:13. | |
We have to, initially, protect the economics. | :14:14. | :14:15. | |
That means getting into an EEA position rather | :14:16. | :14:24. | |
That means retaining lots of EU rules and regulations? | :14:25. | :14:28. | |
At that point it means retaining a lot of stuff to do | :14:29. | :14:30. | |
So yes, we do jettison a lot of other things to do | :14:31. | :14:34. | |
with political union, and we jettison some big policies | :14:35. | :14:37. | |
like the common agricultural policy and common fisheries policy. | :14:38. | :14:39. | |
Lots of civil servants like a Norway style European Economic Area | :14:40. | :14:54. | |
membership as the first leg of any Brexit journey to minimise | :14:55. | :14:57. | |
We could then disentangle further at a slower speed | :14:58. | :15:00. | |
Some even think this strategy could prove a model | :15:01. | :15:03. | |
You would have a Europe which is a small, incredibly | :15:04. | :15:07. | |
integrated space where you have one single currency. | :15:08. | :15:09. | |
Where those countries really pull sovereignty and in effect become | :15:10. | :15:11. | |
And you have everyone else in Europe who is part of a free-trade space | :15:12. | :15:20. | |
in close partnership with Eurozone Europe, | :15:21. | :15:22. | |
but it's not done as intensely, regulated, and is sort | :15:23. | :15:24. | |
It would allow those who want maximum integration to have it. | :15:25. | :15:33. | |
It would allow everyone else to do it at their own pace. | :15:34. | :15:36. | |
But these schemes have a big political weak spot. | :15:37. | :15:43. | |
Why is it you think Vote Leave haven't gone for your road map? | :15:44. | :15:46. | |
I think perhaps because they have chosen immigration | :15:47. | :15:48. | |
Immigration is a big issue in this country. | :15:49. | :15:51. | |
As we all know. As I accept, as well. | :15:52. | :15:54. | |
My issue with it is that the economy is a bigger issue, and that keeps | :15:55. | :15:57. | |
coming up in polls time after time, and therefore, for me, | :15:58. | :16:00. | |
that is what we actually need to focus on in the first instance. | :16:01. | :16:03. | |
The Remain campaign has plenty of criticism of this model, as well. | :16:04. | :16:06. | |
The Leave campaign have said if we leave the EU, | :16:07. | :16:08. | |
they want us to leave the single market, leave the EU entirely, | :16:09. | :16:11. | |
If we were to follow the Norwegian EEA model, | :16:12. | :16:22. | |
that wouldn't have a mandate, | :16:23. | :16:29. | |
and it wouldn't achieve the things the Leave campaign say | :16:30. | :16:31. | |
We wouldn't be able to stop free movement of people. | :16:32. | :16:35. | |
We would still have to accept most EU rules with no say over | :16:36. | :16:39. | |
And we would still have to pay into the EU budget. | :16:40. | :16:42. | |
So it is far worse than the deal we have now. | :16:43. | :16:45. | |
Today, BBC News revealed that lots of Pro-Remain MPs | :16:46. | :16:47. | |
They will have Whitehall allies, too. | :16:48. | :16:50. | |
But if Vote Leave win this campaign | :16:51. | :16:52. | |
ministers may feel they will have to cut immigration, | :16:53. | :16:54. | |
especially as the Prime Minister might well soon be from Vote Leave. | :16:55. | :16:57. | |
This is what happens when you post simple referendum questions | :16:58. | :16:59. | |
STUDIO: Still with me is Energy Minister Andrea Leadsom, | :17:00. | :17:15. | |
and joining her is former head of the World Trade | :17:16. | :17:17. | |
The European project feel slightly threatened by the prospect of Brexit | :17:18. | :17:26. | |
but that report notwithstanding, in the event of a vote to leave, the | :17:27. | :17:29. | |
union will bend over backwards to keep Britain as close to the centre | :17:30. | :17:42. | |
of business as possible, surely? That is speculation and the reality | :17:43. | :17:46. | |
is quite different, the reason the UK joined the European Union 40 | :17:47. | :17:53. | |
years ago was free trade. If the UK leaves, it leaves the union, and it | :17:54. | :17:59. | |
leaves this free trade zone and the single market. It will import more, | :18:00. | :18:12. | |
because of the zero tariff which the Brexit campaign says will occur | :18:13. | :18:17. | |
after having left, so less exports, because of tariffs in the European | :18:18. | :18:22. | |
Union, 50% of UK export, plus the 50 other countries with which the EU | :18:23. | :18:28. | |
has preferential trade agreements. More imports, less exports, less | :18:29. | :18:34. | |
production, less jobs. That is the equation. That is also speculation, | :18:35. | :18:43. | |
of course. I have been in trade negotiations for 20 years, they are | :18:44. | :18:49. | |
not about love, they are about hard numbers, they are about clout, they | :18:50. | :18:57. | |
are about bargaining capacity. Standing alone, the UK loses the | :18:58. | :19:00. | |
bargaining capacity that it has with other countries because it belonged | :19:01. | :19:05. | |
to the European Union and because the European Union is 500 million | :19:06. | :19:11. | |
consumers. That is the reason the US, Canada and Mexico have a | :19:12. | :19:18. | |
free-trade agreement. Trade is a world of elephants. 500 million. | :19:19. | :19:23. | |
China, India, more than 1 billion! That is what trade is about, that is | :19:24. | :19:28. | |
what trade negotiations are about. Look at the UK, outside in the cold? | :19:29. | :19:35. | |
More imports, less exports. That is roughly what I call shooting oneself | :19:36. | :19:39. | |
in the foot! We will not be an elephant anymore, I'm not sure what | :19:40. | :19:44. | |
we will be but it will not be anywhere near as big. The EU has | :19:45. | :19:47. | |
Nick Dougherty negotiated free-trade agreements with economies of the | :19:48. | :19:53. | |
size of about 7 trillion US dollars, that is the EU elephant, | :19:54. | :19:57. | |
Switzerland, population of less than 30 million, has negotiated | :19:58. | :20:00. | |
free-trade around the world with the economic size of about 27 trillion. | :20:01. | :20:07. | |
-- the EU has negotiated free-trade agreements. The fleetness of it is | :20:08. | :20:12. | |
vital, the EU's own numbers themselves showed that because of | :20:13. | :20:15. | |
their failure to negotiate free-trade agreements with some of | :20:16. | :20:19. | |
the biggest economies in the world, the UK's jobs have been impacted | :20:20. | :20:22. | |
negatively to the tune of nearly 300,000 jobs. Had we negotiated | :20:23. | :20:28. | |
free-trade with big economies, that could have been what the UK | :20:29. | :20:32. | |
achieved. If we leave the EU, we will be able to negotiate those | :20:33. | :20:38. | |
free-trade agreements on our own. I'm sorry to say but free trade is | :20:39. | :20:44. | |
about negotiations. What will you negotiate? What will you offer to | :20:45. | :20:53. | |
the people you negotiate with? Your policy is zero tariff on the UK | :20:54. | :20:56. | |
market. What will you offer to the others? If they have free access to | :20:57. | :21:02. | |
your market, they will not give you anything, if they have free access, | :21:03. | :21:08. | |
it does not make sense. What is a trade negotiation, it is a deal, I | :21:09. | :21:11. | |
give you something, you give me something. If you have given me free | :21:12. | :21:15. | |
access to the market, which is what is being said, then there is not any | :21:16. | :21:23. | |
more reason to have a deal! The campaign is not saying that the UK | :21:24. | :21:28. | |
will have zero tariffs. Of course it is, I have read very carefully what | :21:29. | :21:33. | |
you're colleague Patrick Milford has said, and he said, zero tariffs. | :21:34. | :21:39. | |
He's not speaking for the vote Leave campaign, he has his individual | :21:40. | :21:45. | |
views... I'm sorry to say, then, you are going to close the economy? | :21:46. | :21:55. | |
Let's hear from her. We will undergo shed free-trade, you will be aware | :21:56. | :21:58. | |
that the average time taken is 28 months, on average, as I have said, | :21:59. | :22:03. | |
the likes of Switzerland and Iceland and Singapore, they have negotiated | :22:04. | :22:08. | |
free-trade agreements with all of the world's biggest economies. The | :22:09. | :22:13. | |
UK will plan to do the same. They have negotiated an agreement because | :22:14. | :22:16. | |
they have a protected economy, which they have open. I know Switzerland, | :22:17. | :22:21. | |
and Switzerland is a very protected economy. These countries have a | :22:22. | :22:26. | |
protected economy, and what they do in a negotiation, they love the | :22:27. | :22:32. | |
protection for the price of market access everywhere. That is why | :22:33. | :22:36. | |
Switzerland negotiated a free-trade agreement with China, except... And | :22:37. | :22:43. | |
the European Union has not. Except in that case, the deal is fairly | :22:44. | :22:48. | |
unbalanced because China is a huge market and Switzerland is a small | :22:49. | :22:53. | |
market. The UK is the world's biggest economy. Unbalanced trade | :22:54. | :22:57. | |
deal, if that is what you want...? It is not a good reason, you may | :22:58. | :23:02. | |
have other reasons, and I am not entering into that because this is | :23:03. | :23:07. | |
my area of expertise. I sense this conversation has barely begun, but | :23:08. | :23:11. | |
unfortunately, for the purpose of this evening, at least, it must come | :23:12. | :23:15. | |
to an end. Thank you very much for joining us. | :23:16. | :23:19. | |
Hilary Clinton is tonight within touching distance | :23:20. | :23:21. | |
of becoming the first female Presidential nominee | :23:22. | :23:23. | |
Barring a surprise of Biblical proportions, | :23:24. | :23:25. | |
tomorrow's primaries in five US states | :23:26. | :23:27. | |
will see her secure enough support to see off Senator Bernie Sanders, | :23:28. | :23:30. | |
her remaining rival for the Democratic Party's candidacy. | :23:31. | :23:31. | |
But it has been an angry and occasionally vicious battle, | :23:32. | :23:34. | |
except, I suppose, by the standards of the Republican Party this year, | :23:35. | :23:37. | |
that she will need to heal some serious wounds in her own party | :23:38. | :23:41. | |
Newsnight's Diplomatic Editor Mark Urban reports. | :23:42. | :23:55. | |
VOICEOVER: Running for president is not for shrinking violets, shake | :23:56. | :24:01. | |
that many hands, down another drinks, should enough hoops, you may | :24:02. | :24:06. | |
soon not know when it is time to quit. That at least is how many | :24:07. | :24:11. | |
Democrats feel about Bernie Sanders, the last primaries are looming, all | :24:12. | :24:16. | |
of the polling insists it will be a trump Clinton battle. Over the last | :24:17. | :24:23. | |
month, where the maths has not been there for him anymore, and he has | :24:24. | :24:28. | |
stayed in the race, there has been an increasing impatience from the | :24:29. | :24:31. | |
supporters of Hillary Clinton for him to get out but it is appropriate | :24:32. | :24:36. | |
for him to stay in until tomorrow. There are primaries in six states | :24:37. | :24:42. | |
tomorrow, California alone has 546 delegates up for grabs. Hillary | :24:43. | :24:49. | |
Clinton is just 23 short of getting the 2383 delegates that she needs to | :24:50. | :24:54. | |
secure the nomination. It is almost impossible for Bernie Sanders to win | :24:55. | :24:59. | |
now, but he may have shown his party a path to a different type of | :25:00. | :25:04. | |
politics. What the party establishment is learning from this | :25:05. | :25:08. | |
experience in 2016 is that the party is going through a transition, the | :25:09. | :25:11. | |
real energy in the Democratic party here is in the progressive wing, and | :25:12. | :25:18. | |
it foreshadows a lot of fights to come within the Democratic party as | :25:19. | :25:21. | |
it evolves into something considerably more progressive than | :25:22. | :25:26. | |
it is right now. Everyone now expects this election to be Clinton | :25:27. | :25:32. | |
against Trump, and his supporters have been stepping up attacks at | :25:33. | :25:35. | |
that way on public distrust of the Clinton plan. I never told anybody | :25:36. | :25:41. | |
it is a lie... These allegations are full. She, too, is turning her | :25:42. | :25:49. | |
campaign towards the main event. -- these allegations are false. In the | :25:50. | :25:57. | |
last few weeks he has criticised places allies, has praised | :25:58. | :26:01. | |
dictators, like in North Korea, has advocated pulling out of Nato, our | :26:02. | :26:07. | |
strongest military alliance...! Has said, in very cavalier ways, and he | :26:08. | :26:12. | |
doesn't really mind if other countries get nuclear weapons, | :26:13. | :26:15. | |
including Saudi Arabia. As for that apparently unstoppable Trump | :26:16. | :26:20. | |
bandwagon... The Clinton campaign now seems confident that a little | :26:21. | :26:26. | |
humour and light character assassination will work just fine. | :26:27. | :26:32. | |
There is a way to talk about his statements, there is a way to paint | :26:33. | :26:36. | |
a picture, if you will, for the general electorate, the voters who | :26:37. | :26:41. | |
will vote in the fall, about what a Donald Trump presidency might look | :26:42. | :26:45. | |
like. Her strategy between now and election day is to make that | :26:46. | :26:49. | |
unacceptable to a large percentage of people who will vote in the fall. | :26:50. | :26:55. | |
The success of the Sanders and Trump campaigns ought to have taught | :26:56. | :26:59. | |
Hillary Clinton's people that the rejection of politics as usual is | :27:00. | :27:06. | |
now deep in America, Donald Trump has emerged largely unscathed for | :27:07. | :27:09. | |
months of negative campaigning. Enormous concern on the Democratic | :27:10. | :27:15. | |
side, there is a Teflon aspect to Donald Trump's candidacy, how do you | :27:16. | :27:20. | |
run against a candidate like that? Unfamiliar to rain, no candidate has | :27:21. | :27:24. | |
ever run against a candidate like Donald Trump, with the bombast and | :27:25. | :27:27. | |
the ability to chew through new cycle after new cycle, it is | :27:28. | :27:30. | |
something the Democrats are sitting in conference rooms and about what | :27:31. | :27:34. | |
will stick, nothing has stuck so far. With voting immanent in | :27:35. | :27:40. | |
California and five other states, Hillary Clinton must now convince | :27:41. | :27:45. | |
her party and the wider country that she really can be the unifier. | :27:46. | :27:53. | |
STUDIO: Joining me now is Democratic strategist and Bernie Sanders | :27:54. | :27:55. | |
And Democratic pollster and Hillary Clinton | :27:56. | :27:58. | |
Harlan, will your man bow out gracefully, if the numbers stack up | :27:59. | :28:09. | |
as expected? I don't expect that at all, he has very clearly | :28:10. | :28:13. | |
communicated that he has the money and resources and backing to stay | :28:14. | :28:17. | |
through up until the convention, regardless of the results, he has a | :28:18. | :28:20. | |
very good chance, he has the most momentum going into tomorrow, he | :28:21. | :28:26. | |
will stay through the convention. Unity be damp? Well, I think he is | :28:27. | :28:30. | |
putting the middle class, the American worker, before party | :28:31. | :28:34. | |
politics, a lot of people respect him for that, myself included. -- be | :28:35. | :28:42. | |
damned. Do you think that Bernie Sanders is motivating Democratic | :28:43. | :28:46. | |
supporters or damaging the position of your candidate? Bernie Sanders | :28:47. | :28:51. | |
has played a very important role in the campaign so far, articulated in | :28:52. | :28:56. | |
economic agenda that is very powerful, spoken to the need for | :28:57. | :29:01. | |
change, mobilise voters, and I see no reason why he cannot continue to | :29:02. | :29:05. | |
the convention doing the same thing. What I hope is that we are united in | :29:06. | :29:11. | |
turning focus on Donald Trump, and I think Bernie Sanders this weekend | :29:12. | :29:14. | |
gave a very powerful speech, talking about Donald Trump, nothing could be | :29:15. | :29:19. | |
more of an anathema to Bernie Sanders, then a billionaire who has | :29:20. | :29:27. | |
profited at the expense of ordinary people who will not unionise his | :29:28. | :29:30. | |
workers, who has brought in immigrant workforce, because he can | :29:31. | :29:36. | |
pay them less, who has cheated people out of their college | :29:37. | :29:39. | |
educations and is a racist and a misogynist to boot!... I would say | :29:40. | :29:44. | |
that is very unifying the Democrats, I hope Hillary Clinton and Bernie | :29:45. | :29:48. | |
Sanders speaks eloquently do that. Numbers suggest a significant number | :29:49. | :29:52. | |
of Bernie Sanders supporters are more likely to support Trump than | :29:53. | :29:54. | |
Hillary ...? I think those numbers are deceptive. | :29:55. | :30:10. | |
As Bernie Sanders speaks to Donald Trump and draws the contrast, I | :30:11. | :30:15. | |
don't think that's true. I think it is a momentary expression of | :30:16. | :30:18. | |
frustration. The Bernie Sanders voters have no thing in common with | :30:19. | :30:26. | |
Donald Trump. No issue positions in common with Donald Trump. Do you | :30:27. | :30:31. | |
recognise that description? Absolutely not. There is commonality | :30:32. | :30:37. | |
between a candidate like Bernie Sanders and Donald Trump. Both | :30:38. | :30:42. | |
antiestablishment candidates. Both taking issue with trade. Hillary | :30:43. | :30:45. | |
Clinton is on the wrong side of trade. Her husband was the architect | :30:46. | :30:51. | |
of this. She negotiated the GP in the State Department. Between the | :30:52. | :30:56. | |
two, it will lead to lots of jobs being taken overseas. -- negotiated | :30:57. | :31:05. | |
the TTP. They are doing cold, hard calculations, saying I don't really | :31:06. | :31:08. | |
like Donald Trump but Hillary Clinton is on the wrong side of | :31:09. | :31:12. | |
trade. She has supported every war since Vietnam. She voted for every | :31:13. | :31:18. | |
invasion of Iraq. She is on the wrong side. She is a | :31:19. | :31:21. | |
multimillionaire in her own right. These dispersions that she is... | :31:22. | :31:28. | |
That Donald Trump is hard to relate to because he is extraordinarily | :31:29. | :31:32. | |
wealthy, I think they also stick to Hillary Clinton. You are a | :31:33. | :31:37. | |
democratic strategist, who would you vote for? Clinton versus Trump, who | :31:38. | :31:44. | |
would you vote for? Right now I am taking a hard look at Trump. I can't | :31:45. | :31:49. | |
believe I'm saying it. I think Hillary Clinton has a 30 year track | :31:50. | :31:54. | |
record of lies, deceit, and fraud. I don't trust her. The e-mail thing | :31:55. | :31:59. | |
was the straw that broke the camel 's back for me. She put her on | :32:00. | :32:03. | |
political expediency ahead of national security. She destroyed | :32:04. | :32:07. | |
evidence as part of the investigation. I have real issues | :32:08. | :32:11. | |
with her, I don't trust her. This is the real deal, not opinion polls, | :32:12. | :32:15. | |
this is a Democratic strategist who is thinking about voting for Trump, | :32:16. | :32:22. | |
this is a problem. He has a problem. But I don't imagine you will vote | :32:23. | :32:28. | |
for someone who called a Mexican judge, my black voter. And the way | :32:29. | :32:38. | |
he has treated women. Who wants to expand nuclear weapons. I can | :32:39. | :32:42. | |
appreciate you are frustrated, but I cannot imagine that any Democrat | :32:43. | :32:48. | |
would vote for Donald Trump. And the data shows it is less than seven to | :32:49. | :32:54. | |
9% of voters. I think our bigger issue is turnout. That percentage is | :32:55. | :33:01. | |
quite meaningful, particularly where it happens. You know better than | :33:02. | :33:06. | |
anyone. Probably one of the top pollsters in the Democratic party. | :33:07. | :33:11. | |
In certain states, amongst certain constituencies, that swing vote | :33:12. | :33:15. | |
could be very meaningful. I am sure Bernie Sanders will endorse Hillary | :33:16. | :33:19. | |
Clinton. And I am positive he will do everything he can in his power | :33:20. | :33:22. | |
because of what he stands for and what he believes in and the kind of | :33:23. | :33:26. | |
person he has worked his whole life to be. To reassure people that | :33:27. | :33:31. | |
Hillary Clinton is the better vote over Donald Trump. We saw the same | :33:32. | :33:37. | |
fight in 2008. There was all of this discussion about would Hillary | :33:38. | :33:40. | |
supporters really vote for Barack Obama, Hillary voted for him and all | :33:41. | :33:46. | |
of her supporters did, as well. Many thanks. | :33:47. | :33:47. | |
He has a catchy slogan, "new economics", | :33:48. | :33:49. | |
but shadow chancellor John McDonnel has thus far | :33:50. | :33:51. | |
failed to offer much by way of policies to fit the description. | :33:52. | :33:54. | |
It's particularly interesting, then, that he chose tonight to attend | :33:55. | :33:57. | |
the Westminster launch of a report proposing the abolition | :33:58. | :33:59. | |
of means-tested benefits in favour of a flat rate payment for everyone, | :34:00. | :34:02. | |
the so-called "universal basic income." | :34:03. | :34:07. | |
It is, he said earlier, an idea that Labour will be looking | :34:08. | :34:09. | |
Joining me now to work out what it might look like is. | :34:10. | :34:20. | |
Andy Stern's book is getting attention in the US and beyond. And | :34:21. | :34:31. | |
the cheaper to call commentate at the Independent also joins me. -- | :34:32. | :34:36. | |
and chief political commentator as the independent also joins me. | :34:37. | :34:42. | |
If you believe a lot of reputable research by Oxford University, | :34:43. | :34:52. | |
McKinsey, Deloitte, the world economic, or most recent, the noble | :34:53. | :34:56. | |
laureate who said that a storm of destruction to the job market is on | :34:57. | :35:01. | |
the way because of the acceleration of technology, we would be really | :35:02. | :35:03. | |
foolish not to prepare for that storm. -- Nobel laureate. We need to | :35:04. | :35:10. | |
prepare for the disruptions of the job market. Because people will not | :35:11. | :35:15. | |
be paid to do a job, the solution is to pay them not to do a job? We are | :35:16. | :35:22. | |
talking about setting a floor for people. We are not saying people | :35:23. | :35:26. | |
won't work or earning come, but we are saying that the ability to earn | :35:27. | :35:30. | |
a full-time job like I was able to do in my lifetime is going to be | :35:31. | :35:34. | |
become more difficult. Technology isn't just affecting blue-collar | :35:35. | :35:40. | |
workers, it is in other industries and other areas of finance. We have | :35:41. | :35:44. | |
to understand that we would arrive at a time when there is not enough | :35:45. | :35:49. | |
work for people to do that. We want economic stability in our economy. | :35:50. | :35:52. | |
We don't want all of these means tested programmes. We want to give | :35:53. | :35:56. | |
people a floor so they have some security. An attractive proposition | :35:57. | :36:02. | |
at first glance. It is a lovely idea. Imagine there is no heaven. | :36:03. | :36:11. | |
Everybody who has ever looked at it has thought, wouldn't it be nice if. | :36:12. | :36:16. | |
Problem is, you cannot actually make it work. It involves spending so | :36:17. | :36:23. | |
much money on people who wouldn't otherwise need it. You would have to | :36:24. | :36:29. | |
put tax rate up to... One model I have seen offers a basic income of | :36:30. | :36:34. | |
8000 per year but it involves putting up the basic rate of tax up | :36:35. | :36:39. | |
to 48p in the pound. I don't think it is politically possible. That | :36:40. | :36:43. | |
scheme doesn't even deal with housing benefit or council tax | :36:44. | :36:48. | |
credit. It is too complicated. It is going to cost too much, B-2 -- it be | :36:49. | :36:56. | |
complicated, but you are selling lots of books. We have something | :36:57. | :37:01. | |
very simple in our country, it is called Social Security. It is | :37:02. | :37:06. | |
universal. It is paid for by contributions from individuals. $1.7 | :37:07. | :37:14. | |
trillion. The current system is worth about 8 billion. Our country | :37:15. | :37:18. | |
doesn't have VAT. There are lots of things we can in this country. A lot | :37:19. | :37:23. | |
of the money that is paid to wealthier people would be clawed | :37:24. | :37:27. | |
back by the tax system. We have to first decide, is this a good idea, | :37:28. | :37:31. | |
and I think it is one. Then we have to think about how to pay for it. | :37:32. | :37:38. | |
Charles Murray, a conservative, and Andy Stern both agree on the | :37:39. | :37:44. | |
concept. We are three Nobel laureates agreeing on the concept. | :37:45. | :37:50. | |
We should do the maths, I think it would work. Why did Swiss voters | :37:51. | :37:57. | |
reject it yesterday? It is premature in Switzerland. The poll around it | :37:58. | :38:01. | |
said 70% of Swiss voters say in the next 25 years they think it is | :38:02. | :38:06. | |
inevitable. Switzerland is a successful country, doesn't have | :38:07. | :38:09. | |
much property, technology isn't really affecting it, but I think | :38:10. | :38:13. | |
they did an enormous contribution. They have sparked a global debate. | :38:14. | :38:18. | |
It is now in the UK, Justin Trudeau, according to the US, the UN, | :38:19. | :38:23. | |
everybody is talking about it. Maybe there is a better way to end | :38:24. | :38:27. | |
poverty, provide benefits, so we can deal with the upcoming change and | :38:28. | :38:31. | |
destruction in the job market. That's the crucial point, the | :38:32. | :38:35. | |
upcoming change, do you know they're rather robots who can do journalism? | :38:36. | :38:42. | |
We will all be out of a job. -- there are even robots. It is as old | :38:43. | :38:47. | |
and idea as the basic income. The idea that technology will put | :38:48. | :38:51. | |
everybody out of work, and change the nature of work. Let's wait and | :38:52. | :38:55. | |
see what actually happens. The problem with the basic income is | :38:56. | :39:01. | |
that you cannot... Driverless trucks, soon, which is a big part of | :39:02. | :39:08. | |
the American economy. The British economy has continued to create jobs | :39:09. | :39:13. | |
at an unprecedented rate, too. The job market will change. It won't | :39:14. | :39:17. | |
mean people won't have any work to do. That is the old utopian idea of | :39:18. | :39:23. | |
Thomas Moore, he proposed this and proposed that people wouldn't have | :39:24. | :39:26. | |
to do more than a couple of hours work each day. Cannot see any | :39:27. | :39:33. | |
mileage in it at all? I think it is a lovely idea. Andy says do the | :39:34. | :39:37. | |
maths, anybody who has finds it doesn't work. So let's concentrate | :39:38. | :39:42. | |
on making the welfare system we have worked better rather than some | :39:43. | :39:44. | |
utopian scheme which involves tearing it all up and starting | :39:45. | :39:49. | |
again. Many thanks to you berries. That is all we have time for | :39:50. | :39:51. |