Browse content similar to 22/06/2016. Check below for episodes and series from the same categories and more!
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I will go to Parliament and propose that the British people decide our | :00:09. | :00:14. | |
future in Europe through a referendum on Thursday the 23rd of | :00:15. | :00:15. | |
June. The choice is in your hands. And it's been a fraught fight | :00:16. | :00:19. | |
to the bitter last day. We'll look back at the campaign | :00:20. | :00:26. | |
and at what has cut through. Britain's not just deciding | :00:27. | :00:30. | |
on Europe, it's deciding Michael Cockerell has been looking | :00:31. | :00:33. | |
back at their history. We'll discuss the divisions that | :00:34. | :00:40. | |
have been exposed in the run-up And ask how our political parties | :00:41. | :00:51. | |
and the country will cope with the aftermath. | :00:52. | :00:57. | |
On Friday the healing will have to begin. | :00:58. | :01:02. | |
But ahead of that we have the small matter of the referendum itself. | :01:03. | :01:05. | |
With it, such a cliffhanger there was a frenzy of last-minute | :01:06. | :01:07. | |
campaigning, even though market day is upon us. | :01:08. | :01:10. | |
And the professionals always remind us, you can't fatten | :01:11. | :01:13. | |
A busy last day? Yes, it did have the feeling that this was bigger | :01:14. | :01:30. | |
than the annual -- average General Election, Harriet Harman, David | :01:31. | :01:34. | |
Cameron and Gordon Brown on the same platform and Boris Johnson crossing | :01:35. | :01:38. | |
the country by helicopter and aeroplane and tonight, the final | :01:39. | :01:43. | |
polls, the YouGov poll shows that remain are just ahead. Better news | :01:44. | :01:49. | |
for them with Comres, it shows they are ahead, 54-40 six. These | :01:50. | :01:56. | |
campaigns, the same polls and what is interesting is the feeling is the | :01:57. | :02:03. | |
same in both camps, they can see the pathway to victory but they are | :02:04. | :02:07. | |
nervous, in the Remain camp the reason they have confidence is they | :02:08. | :02:11. | |
are watching the risk factor, voters saying it could be risky to leave | :02:12. | :02:17. | |
and that drives the vote but what is making Remain nervous is what is | :02:18. | :02:21. | |
making Vote Leave happy, if you're that there is a disconnect the | :02:22. | :02:25. | |
Indian elite of the Labour Party in favour of remaining and the rest of | :02:26. | :02:27. | |
the Labour party grassroots throughout the rest of the country | :02:28. | :02:31. | |
but at least the Remain campaign have the Labour party machinery. | :02:32. | :02:36. | |
Vote Leave has no party machinery behind it and tomorrow is all about | :02:37. | :02:41. | |
getting that vote out. We will hear from you in a moment. | :02:42. | :02:42. | |
One in which the techniques of the "hard sell" have been pushed | :02:43. | :02:47. | |
And it's a campaign that's demonstrated | :02:48. | :02:50. | |
On each side, protagonists have proffered their view with more | :02:51. | :02:53. | |
certainty and strength than perhaps their case deserved. | :02:54. | :02:57. | |
In doing so they have hardened their argument but have | :02:58. | :03:00. | |
It seemed like sales talk rather than explanation. | :03:01. | :03:05. | |
I wonder whether the ambivalent among us might have been more | :03:06. | :03:08. | |
persuaded by someone more, well, ambivalent? | :03:09. | :03:10. | |
David Grossman has been been looking back at the campaign and at what has | :03:11. | :03:14. | |
But the role of the dice, risking the future. -- with the role of the | :03:15. | :03:39. | |
dice. All aboard for Britain remaining within the EU. | :03:40. | :03:42. | |
Looking back, we can definitely say it has brought the country together. | :03:43. | :03:48. | |
My daughter will not get into the school she needed. I am a Cornish | :03:49. | :04:03. | |
fishermen and you are not. You might not be very bright but that says... | :04:04. | :04:10. | |
Read that! You are being intimidated. | :04:11. | :04:13. | |
Any idea that this might be a uniting referendum, | :04:14. | :04:16. | |
we have sort of split into two countries, Remainia and Leavia. | :04:17. | :04:19. | |
There are a lot of social differences between us | :04:20. | :04:22. | |
and the referendum has got so close and is going right down to the wire, | :04:23. | :04:26. | |
that those differences have become even more | :04:27. | :04:28. | |
At times, it has been enough to drive you to drink. | :04:29. | :04:41. | |
A large quantity of real ale is one of the best ways to get through this | :04:42. | :04:47. | |
referendum campaign and Iraq amend that to everybody! The sweet taste | :04:48. | :04:52. | |
of remaining within the EU. What better, then, than bitter | :04:53. | :04:55. | |
to toast the end of this Although political types have been | :04:56. | :04:57. | |
utterly intoxicated by this referendum, how much of what has | :04:58. | :05:01. | |
been going on has actually cut Thank you, all of you, for | :05:02. | :05:14. | |
everything you are doing to support Vote Leave. | :05:15. | :05:16. | |
It is a reality of politics that generally, the folk who get | :05:17. | :05:19. | |
fired up and immerse themselves in the campaign, | :05:20. | :05:21. | |
how can we put this politely, are not always representative | :05:22. | :05:23. | |
The vast majority probably don't pay as much attention as people | :05:24. | :05:30. | |
Instead, the average person, the 50% of people less | :05:31. | :05:38. | |
engaged than on the street, isn't as engaged in the detail | :05:39. | :05:42. | |
of specific issues or specific policies. | :05:43. | :05:47. | |
Instead, they are interested in what we call the broad | :05:48. | :05:52. | |
narratives, the stories of what we tell ourselves and each | :05:53. | :05:54. | |
Is, for instance, Britain doing well being in the EU or not? | :05:55. | :06:01. | |
This has meant the campaigns have been hammering away at the same | :06:02. | :06:06. | |
I thought the Remain side was very clear. | :06:07. | :06:24. | |
Let's keep talking about the economy and let's scare the living pellets | :06:25. | :06:28. | |
out of voters who are undecided by making them think we're | :06:29. | :06:30. | |
going to have economic collapse, complete house, World Tour III, | :06:31. | :06:33. | |
goodness knows what else, plague and pestilence come Friday, | :06:34. | :06:35. | |
And I think it worked in the early stages. | :06:36. | :06:38. | |
Meanwhile, Vote Leave was serving up something just as bite | :06:39. | :06:42. | |
Is it not time to take back control? We want to take back control. | :06:43. | :06:47. | |
I don't think they really knew what they were doing in the early | :06:48. | :06:50. | |
stages, the early weeks were completely dominated. | :06:51. | :06:51. | |
It was all about the Remain campaign and reaction from the Leave campaign | :06:52. | :07:01. | |
and only in the last week or so, Leave have been the front foot in | :07:02. | :07:08. | |
trying to lead the debate. KV Racing might be the perfect referendum | :07:09. | :07:16. | |
metaphor. -- pig racing. But as a way of measuring public opinion, it | :07:17. | :07:20. | |
is well be less useful. For all of the match discussed difficulties, we | :07:21. | :07:28. | |
prefer to use posters. The polling organisation YouGov has asked voters | :07:29. | :07:31. | |
which events from the campaign they remember. Top of the list was Vote | :07:32. | :07:37. | |
Leave pulls my campaign that we said ?350 million per week to Brussels | :07:38. | :07:43. | |
with 42% remembering. Next was the news that net migration to the UK | :07:44. | :07:47. | |
had hit 333,000, with 37% recalling that. And thirdly, Vote Leave's | :07:48. | :07:54. | |
focus on Turkey and other candidate countries joining the EU on 36%. The | :07:55. | :08:00. | |
top three items were from the Brexit side. The top three items were leave | :08:01. | :08:06. | |
items, they were also more likely to be followed by people who support | :08:07. | :08:11. | |
Leave and because all of the items, there was more interest in people | :08:12. | :08:15. | |
following them if they were likely to Vote Leave and this corresponds | :08:16. | :08:19. | |
to the data that shows that people who say they will Vote Leave are | :08:20. | :08:23. | |
more likely to vote and more likely to be interested and pay attention. | :08:24. | :08:27. | |
That is interesting because there are two dimensions to this, the | :08:28. | :08:32. | |
issue of whether people will Vote Leave or Remain and the issue if | :08:33. | :08:36. | |
they choose to vote or not. Added is that combination of things that will | :08:37. | :08:43. | |
decide the result. The highest Remain argument was a Treasury | :08:44. | :08:46. | |
report that Brexit would spark a year-long recession, that was 35%. | :08:47. | :08:51. | |
Barack Obama saying the UK would be at the back of the queue for a new | :08:52. | :08:55. | |
trade deal with the US in the event of Brexit was weak called by 31% and | :08:56. | :08:59. | |
Jeremy Corbyn's warning about Brexit and the NHS was only remembered by | :09:00. | :09:05. | |
24%. That is not much more than one of the fake items, 21% said they | :09:06. | :09:11. | |
remembered Boris Johnson and David Cameron each calling there other and | :09:12. | :09:14. | |
liar during a live television debate. Despite the fact that that | :09:15. | :09:20. | |
never happened. Although everyone says they want calm, rational, | :09:21. | :09:27. | |
polite debate, secretly, campaigns are trying to generate angry | :09:28. | :09:32. | |
conflict. Using indisputable sadistic, for example, are scary | :09:33. | :09:36. | |
sound bite, generates their time on your preferred subject. The | :09:37. | :09:41. | |
campaigns have been trying to create disputes around their central points | :09:42. | :09:47. | |
so that people will argue over it. Salience is everything, can you move | :09:48. | :09:53. | |
your issue up the agenda? Remain has decided -- succeeded on that, watch | :09:54. | :10:01. | |
the opinion polls, when the salience is up, so is the opinion poll | :10:02. | :10:07. | |
rating. From tomorrow, the leaflets should subside and we would have to | :10:08. | :10:10. | |
pretend to be a night when there is not that the door but there is no | :10:11. | :10:13. | |
hiding from the fact that this referendum has divided the UK. | :10:14. | :10:17. | |
Whatever the result, healing the disputes this campaign has unleashed | :10:18. | :10:18. | |
will not be easy. David Grossman. We'll both sides be satisfied? Who | :10:19. | :10:31. | |
is a theme that unites both campaigns, it proves the old Adam | :10:32. | :10:36. | |
Ashe that the best late military plans rarely survive first contact | :10:37. | :10:40. | |
with the enemy and in the case of the Remain campaign David Cameron | :10:41. | :10:43. | |
and George Osborne were planning to rip free their success in the | :10:44. | :10:48. | |
Scottish referendum with Project Fear. They have focused on that but | :10:49. | :10:52. | |
there is a change away from metrics, if we leave the EU it will cost | :10:53. | :10:59. | |
thousands of pounds, nobody believed that, they moved to a narrative, | :11:00. | :11:03. | |
about the dangers of the here and now, we have not yet left but the | :11:04. | :11:07. | |
markets are already worried and in the case of the Leave campaign, what | :11:08. | :11:17. | |
they were focusing on was... They came very late to immigration? Yes, | :11:18. | :11:24. | |
with immigration one month ago, they focused on that, they had great | :11:25. | :11:28. | |
success and there were not planning on that, they were planning on a | :11:29. | :11:32. | |
broader message but one person has been consistent and that is Nigel | :11:33. | :11:37. | |
Farage and asked him how he felt today about Vote Leave taking some | :11:38. | :11:37. | |
of his ideas. The day Vote Leave moved on to | :11:38. | :11:40. | |
talking about an Australian-style points system I cheered so loudly | :11:41. | :11:42. | |
I nearly lost my voice. Because that was the day | :11:43. | :11:45. | |
that the Leave campaign Interesting. There is a campaign and | :11:46. | :11:59. | |
the aftermath and they are already thinking about the aftermath? I have | :12:00. | :12:04. | |
learned that in the aftermath, Downing Street are confident that | :12:05. | :12:06. | |
the Prime Minister will win this referendum. But there are | :12:07. | :12:10. | |
discussions under way about what will happen if he loses. He has been | :12:11. | :12:15. | |
consulting colleagues. We know he will make the statement in the early | :12:16. | :12:19. | |
hours of Friday morning, being very clear about his intention about how | :12:20. | :12:23. | |
he will run the Brexit negotiations if he survives and also about his | :12:24. | :12:26. | |
own position and there are divisions. Some people say he could | :12:27. | :12:31. | |
survive if he appointed a Brexit minister in charge of those | :12:32. | :12:34. | |
negotiations but other friends say no, and one said, Ken Clarke was | :12:35. | :12:39. | |
wrong to say he would be gone in 30 seconds. He will be gone in 60 | :12:40. | :12:44. | |
seconds! You can hear almost the sound of people grappling with the | :12:45. | :12:46. | |
issues. For what it's worth, I suspect that, | :12:47. | :12:47. | |
despite all the confusion that has been sown, through the noise, | :12:48. | :12:50. | |
most people have grasped the basics. Migration: we're more likely | :12:51. | :12:53. | |
to limit European immigration The economy: the vast bulk | :12:54. | :12:54. | |
of economic, financial and business opinion thinks it would be | :12:55. | :13:00. | |
best to stay. Sovereignty: Brussels will have less | :13:01. | :13:01. | |
power over us if we leave, but that we'll have less power over | :13:02. | :13:05. | |
Brussels if we do. Frankly, the rest is | :13:06. | :13:07. | |
just detail anyway. The argument is over which of these | :13:08. | :13:09. | |
different issues is the one And the world divides | :13:10. | :13:12. | |
into those who know, and those who are are having to make | :13:13. | :13:15. | |
up their mind. None of us have ordered it, we could | :13:16. | :13:24. | |
all be swayed in either direction. Everybody I have talked to is | :13:25. | :13:30. | |
confused. Why can't economists do for and against without being | :13:31. | :13:35. | |
biased? We need 10,000 more doctors because we have 100,000 more people | :13:36. | :13:39. | |
coming in. The only way people have a future in the North is from the | :13:40. | :13:45. | |
EU. At the end of the day, to make a difference, everybody has to vote | :13:46. | :13:48. | |
for it and without that it doesn't make a difference. | :13:49. | :13:50. | |
Joining me now to reflect on standout moments | :13:51. | :13:53. | |
of the referendum campaign is Professor of History at | :13:54. | :13:55. | |
Sun political columnist Trevor Kavanagh. | :13:56. | :13:57. | |
Assistant editor of The Spectator Isabel Hardman. | :13:58. | :13:59. | |
And the Guardian's senior economics commentator, Aditya Chakrabortty. | :14:00. | :14:07. | |
Thank you for coming in. We have asked you to think about one telling | :14:08. | :14:13. | |
moment in the campaign that might be an interesting point. Trevor? For | :14:14. | :14:20. | |
me, the first evidence that this was game on and I suspect for David | :14:21. | :14:24. | |
Cameron was on February the 18th, the day of the Cabinet when he | :14:25. | :14:30. | |
unveiled his empty-handed referendum... The renegotiation. | :14:31. | :14:36. | |
Nothing to offer all of you. And Michael Gove immediately came out | :14:37. | :14:42. | |
that evenly with a sickly the Brexit manifesto, he rapidly moved out of | :14:43. | :14:44. | |
the traps and that took Downing Street by surprise and I think if it | :14:45. | :14:49. | |
had not been for that, Boris Johnson would not have joined the fray. He | :14:50. | :14:53. | |
rode a very powerful and eloquent speech? Yes. Next? What for you was | :14:54. | :15:06. | |
that moment? The financier Nicholas Massereene says you should always | :15:07. | :15:08. | |
listen to what people are talking about in the local gym, this man | :15:09. | :15:13. | |
came over to me, and said, have you seen the leaflet about David | :15:14. | :15:19. | |
Cameron? Yes, it is doormat. That costs ?350 million. I am not so sure | :15:20. | :15:26. | |
about that! And then he said, if we vote to leave, I do not think | :15:27. | :15:29. | |
Cameron will accept that. He will keep Austin and will go back to | :15:30. | :15:33. | |
Brussels and we negotiate. And I thought, is the? Where has he got | :15:34. | :15:38. | |
that from? I look at the opinion polls and they showed that the | :15:39. | :15:42. | |
majority of British people agreed, even if he voted no, we want to | :15:43. | :15:46. | |
leave, but don't trust the governing class to accept that. | :15:47. | :15:50. | |
So the big point... What you have seen played out is this lingering | :15:51. | :15:57. | |
and quite serious distrust of the governing class, Labour or Tory, | :15:58. | :16:03. | |
from across the country. What has been the standout moment for you? It | :16:04. | :16:09. | |
was a week ago, Nigel Farage's poster from the anti-immigration | :16:10. | :16:14. | |
poster. This was the moment of truth, or rather the moment of | :16:15. | :16:17. | |
untruths because it was the most shameless attempt to misrepresent | :16:18. | :16:21. | |
the issue of immigration, distorting completely what is at stake in this | :16:22. | :16:27. | |
referendum. As it coincided with the murder of Jo Cox, it seems to me | :16:28. | :16:32. | |
like a really terrifying reminder that the ghost of Enoch Powell still | :16:33. | :16:37. | |
stalks the politics of this nation simultaneously, anti-immigration and | :16:38. | :16:42. | |
anti-Europe and this was the rivers of blood moment. I find it | :16:43. | :16:45. | |
terrifying and a great many people felt the same weight and it stopped | :16:46. | :16:53. | |
what seemed like momentum in the -- of Lever in its tracks. | :16:54. | :16:56. | |
I think the distrust factor is extremely acute and there was a poll | :16:57. | :17:06. | |
showing how much it is reflected against, of all people, the pie | :17:07. | :17:10. | |
Minister and the Chancellor. There are accounts and forecasts on the | :17:11. | :17:13. | |
effect on the economy are disbelieved totally by the | :17:14. | :17:18. | |
electorate -- the Prime Minister. What about the point that there is a | :17:19. | :17:21. | |
politics of hate? I wonder if you accept that this has been a bit more | :17:22. | :17:26. | |
brutal than we have been used to? Much more so and from both sides but | :17:27. | :17:33. | |
predominantly on the Remain camp and Amber Rudd's Tare in the debate | :17:34. | :17:37. | |
against Boris Johnson was really quite ugly -- Thai raid. | :17:38. | :17:45. | |
What Farrag is arguing with the post is that we have a crisis with asylum | :17:46. | :17:53. | |
seekers from Syria and the absolutely don't. All of this talk | :17:54. | :17:56. | |
of taking control is a complete misrepresentation of the immigration | :17:57. | :18:00. | |
issue. We will have a discussion later. Isabel is sitting quietly and | :18:01. | :18:12. | |
patiently. Your moment? George Osborne's exit budget, not into and | :18:13. | :18:15. | |
the impact it would have had on but the long-term impact on the | :18:16. | :18:20. | |
Conservative Party. It was such a ludicrous thing to produce and the | :18:21. | :18:23. | |
thing that amused me the most was that he was saying he would have to | :18:24. | :18:28. | |
cut disability benefits when he had a month ago triggered the | :18:29. | :18:30. | |
resignation of a Cabinet member within the EU for doing just that. | :18:31. | :18:35. | |
There were so many Conservative MPs who said they would vote against it | :18:36. | :18:40. | |
it went far beyond the usual malcontents who are always | :18:41. | :18:42. | |
complaining about Cameron and Osborne. These were sensible Tory | :18:43. | :18:45. | |
MPs who in their heart apart just want to get over the referendum. And | :18:46. | :18:50. | |
the IFS and others all gain credibility by saying it is not | :18:51. | :18:55. | |
necessarily... Was this part of that salient thing we heard about? You | :18:56. | :19:00. | |
say something that is stupid in order to get the conversation back | :19:01. | :19:03. | |
onto the thing you talk about rather than what they are talking about? | :19:04. | :19:07. | |
And is it veered back to immigration, the Remain campaign | :19:08. | :19:11. | |
warnings have become more and more ludicrous. We had Donald Tusk | :19:12. | :19:19. | |
warning about the end of Western civilisation and I started to think | :19:20. | :19:23. | |
there was a bit of panic in the Remain ranks. We will hear from you | :19:24. | :19:24. | |
in a bit later. Each side in the campaign has | :19:25. | :19:26. | |
pushed its most popular figures to the fore, | :19:27. | :19:28. | |
with the result that it's often seemed as though it's less | :19:29. | :19:31. | |
of a contest between Leave and Remain, and more | :19:32. | :19:33. | |
of a personal battle between Boris Johnson and David | :19:34. | :19:35. | |
Cameron. Their rivalry has history, | :19:36. | :19:36. | |
it's fair to say. And the film-maker Michael Cockerell | :19:37. | :19:38. | |
has been looking at the relationship between the two men, | :19:39. | :19:41. | |
and how that has influenced this David Cameron admires | :19:42. | :19:43. | |
Boris Johnson's charisma and he desperately wanted BoJo | :19:44. | :19:54. | |
on his side in the But Johnson wouldn't | :19:55. | :19:56. | |
make up his mind. In February he drove to his bolthole | :19:57. | :20:03. | |
in Oxfordshire, having said he was genuinely conflicted | :20:04. | :20:06. | |
on whether or not to go for Brexit and was veering all over the place | :20:07. | :20:09. | |
like a supermarket trolley. Johnson was being offered a top | :20:10. | :20:13. | |
Cabinet job by Cameron if he joined He decided he would use his weekly | :20:14. | :20:16. | |
Daily Telegraph column, for which he is paid a quarter | :20:17. | :20:21. | |
of a million a year, I've been told by someone | :20:22. | :20:24. | |
in a position to know that you wrote two articles for the Daily Telegraph | :20:25. | :20:31. | |
because you knew you had to have an article in | :20:32. | :20:35. | |
the Daily Telegraph on the Monday. One was for staying in, | :20:36. | :20:38. | |
the other was for getting out. And the person who told me this said | :20:39. | :20:42. | |
the one for staying I don't know what your conceivable | :20:43. | :20:45. | |
sources for that information may be, but I can tell you, seriously, | :20:46. | :20:55. | |
I decided that it was much This person said that your arguments | :20:56. | :20:59. | |
for staying in were stronger And I will tell you what the second | :21:00. | :21:07. | |
article said. What it said was that, actually, | :21:08. | :21:18. | |
irrespective of my objections to the way the EU was going, | :21:19. | :21:23. | |
in order to support my party and the Prime Minister, | :21:24. | :21:26. | |
it would be better to stay in. And I thought, in the end, | :21:27. | :21:29. | |
that wasn't a good enough reason. Now let me say about Boris, | :21:30. | :21:34. | |
I have huge respect for Boris as a politician, he is a great | :21:35. | :21:38. | |
friend of mine, he is I think he has got a lot to give | :21:39. | :21:41. | |
to the Conservative Party, I think he's got a lot | :21:42. | :21:46. | |
to give to this country. But on this issue I think he's got | :21:47. | :21:48. | |
it wrong and I think he's reached So we're going to have, | :21:49. | :21:52. | |
I hope, a very reasonable, It is the latest contest | :21:53. | :21:55. | |
in the relationship between the two men who had been friends and rivals | :21:56. | :22:00. | |
for nearly 40 years. They had first met at Eton | :22:01. | :22:05. | |
where Johnson was a scholarship boy who was two years older | :22:06. | :22:08. | |
than the stockbroker's son known I'm fairly certain someone said | :22:09. | :22:11. | |
to me once, that's Cameron Mi, Johnson's relationship | :22:12. | :22:20. | |
with Cameron Minor would be an up and down affair | :22:21. | :22:31. | |
throughout their lives. At Eton it was Johnson | :22:32. | :22:33. | |
who became the school star. He was the top player in the team | :22:34. | :22:36. | |
for the Wall Game. He was also a member of the elite | :22:37. | :22:40. | |
group which could wear its own fancy waistcoats and he was made | :22:41. | :22:44. | |
captain of the school. The fact that Cameron did not | :22:45. | :22:46. | |
achieve either honour is something that he is often privately | :22:47. | :22:49. | |
reminded of by Johnson. When the two went on to Oxford, | :22:50. | :22:54. | |
they were elected members And they appeared together | :22:55. | :22:56. | |
in the same photograph which they both wish could be | :22:57. | :23:02. | |
airbrushed out of history. Johnson, who believes | :23:03. | :23:07. | |
he is cleverer than Cameron, left Oxford with a second | :23:08. | :23:11. | |
in classics and was disappointed to learn that David Cameron got | :23:12. | :23:13. | |
a first in politics, Cameron's ambition, like Johnson's, | :23:14. | :23:16. | |
was to become Prime Minister. He's very clever, he's totally | :23:17. | :23:24. | |
devoted to politics. Indeed, when he was very young, | :23:25. | :23:27. | |
he was nicknamed the Prime Minister because he always took | :23:28. | :23:30. | |
politics very seriously, The two men were elected Tory MPs | :23:31. | :23:31. | |
for safe seats in The Cotswolds in 2001 and were fast rising up | :23:32. | :23:39. | |
the greasy pole. Until Boris was sacked | :23:40. | :23:43. | |
from the shadow front bench for lying about a love | :23:44. | :23:46. | |
affair to the then party At the time, David Cameron MP was | :23:47. | :23:48. | |
one of the leader's chief advisers. Did you think it was a good idea | :23:49. | :23:55. | |
for Michael Howard I think, I mean, that's obviously | :23:56. | :23:58. | |
one for him rather than for me. But I think there's a very difficult | :23:59. | :24:07. | |
issue when you say one thing publicly and then you have to say | :24:08. | :24:10. | |
something else publicly, even though Boris is a very close friend | :24:11. | :24:13. | |
of mine, a colleague and, you know, it was obviously a very tough | :24:14. | :24:19. | |
time for him as well. After Cameron was elected Tory | :24:20. | :24:23. | |
leader, he persuaded a reluctant Johnson suspected it was a ploy | :24:24. | :24:27. | |
by Cameron to remove This is an excellent opportunity | :24:28. | :24:31. | |
for London to have someone who I think you can unite Londoners, | :24:32. | :24:39. | |
can inspire Londoners and can give leadership to what is one | :24:40. | :24:42. | |
of the greatest cities in the world. It is greatest city in the world, | :24:43. | :24:45. | |
London is the greatest Sorry, I don't want to interrupt | :24:46. | :24:51. | |
you. It's a fantastic chance to change | :24:52. | :24:54. | |
the government of London and to institute a new type | :24:55. | :24:59. | |
and style of administration # He flies through the air | :25:00. | :25:01. | |
with the greatest of ease # A daring young man | :25:02. | :25:08. | |
on his flying trapeze #. The high point of Johnson's time | :25:09. | :25:14. | |
as mayor was a zip wire trip If any other politician anywhere | :25:15. | :25:17. | |
in the world got stuck on a zip wire For Boris it would be | :25:18. | :25:32. | |
an absolute triumph! The current In-Out referendum | :25:33. | :25:35. | |
campaign is a no holds barred battle which could see the Prime Minister | :25:36. | :25:46. | |
losing his crown jewels Johnson had kept everyone guessing | :25:47. | :25:49. | |
for months about which side I thought I'd better come | :25:50. | :25:56. | |
out and say something because I could see you were all | :25:57. | :26:05. | |
in a great mass here. The last thing I wanted was to go | :26:06. | :26:08. | |
against David Cameron But after a great deal of heartache, | :26:09. | :26:12. | |
I don't think there's I will be advocating Vote Leave, | :26:13. | :26:18. | |
or whatever the team is called. That is basically it, | :26:19. | :26:23. | |
because I want a better deal Is this a calculated, | :26:24. | :26:29. | |
cynical play for the leadership On the contrary, I think that really | :26:30. | :26:36. | |
and truly it would be the best thing possible for the people | :26:37. | :26:44. | |
who are listening to this debate, wondering genuinely | :26:45. | :26:47. | |
in their mind which way to go. Johnson had only given Cameron five | :26:48. | :26:49. | |
minutes' warning for this I am human so obviously | :26:50. | :26:56. | |
I was disappointed, I would be inhuman not to be sad | :26:57. | :27:05. | |
and disappointed that Boris has Privately, the word from number ten | :27:06. | :27:08. | |
was that the PM was incandescent that Boris had decided to out | :27:09. | :27:17. | |
himself as an Outer. There is to be a leadership election | :27:18. | :27:21. | |
in the Conservative Party before the next election | :27:22. | :27:24. | |
because the Prime Minister has already said that he's not | :27:25. | :27:31. | |
going to stand down and it is said, I'm told, | :27:32. | :27:33. | |
that Boris intends to stand in that | :27:34. | :27:36. | |
leadership election. And it is also further held that | :27:37. | :27:40. | |
you couldn't lead the Tory party But I believe that some of those | :27:41. | :27:43. | |
factors may have contributed to Boris's damascian | :27:44. | :27:49. | |
conversion to the Out cause. And he told me he wasn't an Outer, | :27:50. | :27:51. | |
he told a lot of other So I regret very much | :27:52. | :27:58. | |
that he did it. In the Commons, the Prime Minister | :27:59. | :28:01. | |
couldn't resist a subtle dig Mr Speaker, I am not | :28:02. | :28:04. | |
standing for re-election. I have no other agenda, | :28:05. | :28:13. | |
I have no other agenda I don't want this to become a sort | :28:14. | :28:15. | |
of Tory psychodrama And I don't want too many blue | :28:16. | :28:21. | |
on blue conflicts. I want to prove the breadth | :28:22. | :28:26. | |
of the campaign. Cameron launched the Remain campaign | :28:27. | :28:31. | |
in the impressive establishment Isolationism has never | :28:32. | :28:33. | |
served this country well. Whenever we turn our back on Europe, | :28:34. | :28:38. | |
sooner or later The rows of white headstones | :28:39. | :28:40. | |
in lovingly-tended Commonwealth war cemeteries stand as silent testament | :28:41. | :28:50. | |
to the price that this country has paid to help restore peace | :28:51. | :28:53. | |
and order in Europe. Cameron's speech was immediately | :28:54. | :28:58. | |
interpreted by much of the press, and by Boris Johnson, | :28:59. | :29:02. | |
as what they dubbed Project Fear, that leaving Europe could | :29:03. | :29:08. | |
threaten a third World War. I think all this talk | :29:09. | :29:10. | |
of World War Three and bubonic Johnson made a point of contrasting | :29:11. | :29:12. | |
the Leave campaign with the splendour of Cameron | :29:13. | :29:20. | |
and the Remainers. This is a struggle of the little | :29:21. | :29:23. | |
platoons against the big battalions. And they have the CBI and Goldman | :29:24. | :29:33. | |
Sachs and Peter Mandelson. And then, last Friday, | :29:34. | :29:39. | |
we got the definitive He finally revealed what Brexit | :29:40. | :29:41. | |
looks like, and I don't mean the sight of his rear climbing up | :29:42. | :29:52. | |
into that driver's cab. To strengthen the Remain cause, | :29:53. | :30:03. | |
Cameron had enlisted the most powerful man in the world to put | :30:04. | :30:05. | |
the case against Brexit. Johnson issued a pre-emptive strike, | :30:06. | :30:08. | |
accusing Obama of being anti-British Obama delivered a magisterial rebuke | :30:09. | :30:13. | |
and Boris was in the doghouse. I thought Boris got that wrong | :30:14. | :30:21. | |
and I thought it was a terrific misjudgement of the proper | :30:22. | :30:24. | |
thing to say. And I think it kind of showed Boris | :30:25. | :30:26. | |
not in a good light. Alas, poor Boris, I knew him, | :30:27. | :30:31. | |
a fellow of infinite jest. David Cameron seemed to be on a roll | :30:32. | :30:39. | |
as he played up the economic cost What do you think of the way | :30:40. | :30:42. | |
that David Cameron has This whole idea that there will be | :30:43. | :30:49. | |
a plague of frogs and the death of the first-born if we vote | :30:50. | :30:57. | |
to leave when, a week before the renegotiation is completed, | :30:58. | :31:00. | |
the Prime Minister intimated that he might leave the Leave | :31:01. | :31:02. | |
campaign, you can't have World War Three or the global | :31:03. | :31:04. | |
Brexit recession? Johnson now tried a bit | :31:05. | :31:09. | |
of Project Fear of his own. He told the Telegraph | :31:10. | :31:18. | |
that the Brussels bureaucrats were trying to unify Europe | :31:19. | :31:22. | |
as Hitler had done before them. I thought it was absolutely bloody | :31:23. | :31:27. | |
awful, stupid thing to say, it really was, and I have no doubt | :31:28. | :31:30. | |
Boris regrets it. # Who do you think you are kidding | :31:31. | :31:32. | |
Mr Hitler # If you think we're | :31:33. | :31:36. | |
on the run #. In a magazine interview, | :31:37. | :31:41. | |
Cameron said, "Boris and I are still friends, | :31:42. | :31:46. | |
just not such good friends." Johnson arrives for the ITV debate | :31:47. | :31:52. | |
accompanied by two fellow Leave MPs, They will be up against | :31:53. | :31:56. | |
the Remainers, Nicola Sturgeon, the Scots Nat leader, | :31:57. | :32:02. | |
Labour's Angela Eagle and Amber Rudd, | :32:03. | :32:05. | |
the Cabinet Minister. She had apparently been briefed | :32:06. | :32:08. | |
by Downing Street to target her fellow Tory, | :32:09. | :32:10. | |
Boris Johnson, personally. You need to look at the numbers, | :32:11. | :32:15. | |
although I fear the only number Boris is interested in is the one | :32:16. | :32:18. | |
that says number ten. But the fact is, he is the life | :32:19. | :32:23. | |
and soul of the party but he's not the man you want driving you home | :32:24. | :32:27. | |
at the end of the evening. Straight after Amber Rudd's attack | :32:28. | :32:37. | |
on Johnson, David Cameron tweets that Amber Rudd is the star | :32:38. | :32:41. | |
of the programme. I don't think I would want Boris | :32:42. | :32:45. | |
to drive me anywhere actually! I don't think she meant | :32:46. | :32:50. | |
anything particularly sinister. I wasn't quite sure whether this | :32:51. | :32:54. | |
was trying to suggest that Boris was a drunk driver or that he | :32:55. | :32:57. | |
was not safe in taxis. Either way, it was deeply | :32:58. | :33:00. | |
undignified and a potentially lewd comment for a Cabinet | :33:01. | :33:02. | |
Minister to make. What did Johnson make | :33:03. | :33:05. | |
about Amber Rudd's charge that he was only interested | :33:06. | :33:07. | |
in getting to number ten? I really just repeat | :33:08. | :33:11. | |
what I have said. I think people genuinely | :33:12. | :33:13. | |
want to focus on the issues. Yes, of course people | :33:14. | :33:16. | |
will want to distract into all sorts of sideshows but the crucial thing | :33:17. | :33:20. | |
is, what are the facts The immigration issue has been | :33:21. | :33:24. | |
the trump card played Johnson and Michael Gove send | :33:25. | :33:35. | |
an open letter to the Prime Minister which accuses him of corroding | :33:36. | :33:43. | |
public trust A Leave campaign resorting to total | :33:44. | :33:45. | |
untruths to con people It is irresponsible, it is wrong, | :33:46. | :33:54. | |
and it is time that the Leave campaign was called out | :33:55. | :34:01. | |
on the nonsense that Don't make this choice on the basis | :34:02. | :34:04. | |
of false information. Let me take on this issue absolutely | :34:05. | :34:11. | |
directly because I am I am the proud descendant | :34:12. | :34:14. | |
of Turkish immigrants. And let me stun you perhaps | :34:15. | :34:23. | |
by saying I will go further, I'm not only pro-immigration, | :34:24. | :34:32. | |
I'm pro-immigrants and I am in favour of an amnesty for illegal | :34:33. | :34:34. | |
immigrants who have been The bitter exchanges | :34:35. | :34:36. | |
between the Prime Minister and the leading contender | :34:37. | :34:42. | |
for his crown exemplify a campaign widely seen as the most divisive | :34:43. | :34:45. | |
and duplicitous of modern times. And the greatest irony could be | :34:46. | :34:49. | |
that, after the referendum results come in, neither man will end up | :34:50. | :34:53. | |
with the job they have each fought for since | :34:54. | :34:56. | |
they were at school together. Michael cockerel on the big | :34:57. | :35:09. | |
divisions at the top of the Conservative party. | :35:10. | :35:11. | |
The key European issues have sometimes felt like a surface row | :35:12. | :35:16. | |
The referendum is like a couple arguing over who should walk | :35:17. | :35:20. | |
the dog, when the tension between them is really about one | :35:21. | :35:22. | |
We've seen divisions between those who think the world is working | :35:23. | :35:26. | |
Between London and other parts of the country, between | :35:27. | :35:30. | |
younger progressives and older conservatives. | :35:31. | :35:31. | |
All of these are fuzzy divides, but our politics has been | :35:32. | :35:34. | |
stretched and contorted in the weirdest of ways. | :35:35. | :35:35. | |
It's not obvious the party system can take the strain. | :35:36. | :35:38. | |
I'm back with my panel of Niall Ferguson, | :35:39. | :35:40. | |
Trevor Kavanagh, Isabel Hardman and Aditya Chakrabotty. | :35:41. | :35:44. | |
Better start on the Conservative party. I do not know if this can be | :35:45. | :35:52. | |
put back together or if there is a vague Remain win or Brexit. It is | :35:53. | :35:59. | |
more difficult in the event of Remain because you have a lot of | :36:00. | :36:02. | |
Conservative MPs who will feel betrayed and so the government | :36:03. | :36:04. | |
machine was harnessed against them in the campaign, particularly given | :36:05. | :36:08. | |
David Cameron walked into Downing Street this week and started | :36:09. | :36:13. | |
gesticulating at the door behind him during the period when you are not | :36:14. | :36:17. | |
supposed to use government buildings and gave a statement about why | :36:18. | :36:21. | |
Britain should vote to remain. These things will come to the surface if | :36:22. | :36:25. | |
there is a Remain vote and it will be difficult for David Cameron to | :36:26. | :36:28. | |
reunite the party, not just in terms of people not staging a coup against | :36:29. | :36:32. | |
him but in terms of getting any domestic reforms through the Commons | :36:33. | :36:36. | |
with a tiny majority. If there is a Brexit when, you are assuming he | :36:37. | :36:41. | |
will go? Has been post-conflict planning to stop him from going | :36:42. | :36:46. | |
immediately so that he can steer the country through a very difficult | :36:47. | :36:50. | |
time. He will have to work hard at going back on some of the warnings | :36:51. | :36:53. | |
he has made during the campaign, he said Brexit would put a warm under | :36:54. | :37:02. | |
the economy! Trevor, how do you think the Conservative party will | :37:03. | :37:06. | |
look after this? They are in a lot of trouble, I cannot see how they | :37:07. | :37:10. | |
can put the genie back in the bottle because one thing that is not seen | :37:11. | :37:14. | |
by outsiders is on the he has a disciplined Commons party, many of | :37:15. | :37:19. | |
those fighting for Remain are actually four Brexit themselves, and | :37:20. | :37:25. | |
you will see a lot of peerages and knighthoods which are suddenly | :37:26. | :37:29. | |
popping out as a reward to these people and a lot of people is -- | :37:30. | :37:35. | |
another thing is this is Europe as well, this dissatisfaction with the | :37:36. | :37:39. | |
EU is spread across the EU and what is happening in Britain is really an | :37:40. | :37:44. | |
antagonism towards Brussels which is by proxy the view which is | :37:45. | :37:47. | |
resonating across Europe, it is not over. Let us go back to the man you | :37:48. | :37:57. | |
met in the gym, this is the schism, in the country as opposed to the | :37:58. | :38:01. | |
Conservative party, it has highlighted... If use depth back | :38:02. | :38:09. | |
from the hot blue on blue action, you have a governing class that | :38:10. | :38:14. | |
cannot govern very well, the first referendum on Europe since Harold | :38:15. | :38:19. | |
Wilson, Wilson winning that by a thumping majority, Harold Wilson | :38:20. | :38:22. | |
would never ask a question to which he was not confident on the answer | :38:23. | :38:25. | |
he would get and the day after, I looked at how my paper reported | :38:26. | :38:35. | |
this, the front page said Eu euphoria, imagine either of those | :38:36. | :38:38. | |
headlines emerging on Friday or Saturday. If you go by the polls, | :38:39. | :38:46. | |
you have a narrow Remain factory in which one side might lose but nobody | :38:47. | :38:52. | |
wins. And what I can see, if you go out and go to places looking like | :38:53. | :38:57. | |
they might vote for Leave, they hate the lot of them, if you ask, why do | :38:58. | :39:00. | |
you want to leave? Things cannot get worse. But you will not in a fit if | :39:01. | :39:07. | |
you leave. We have had enough. Tony Blair, Cameron, Jeremy Corbyn, what | :39:08. | :39:13. | |
you see in the East of England and the Northeast and Wales, essentially | :39:14. | :39:18. | |
a sense that they have tuned out the entire political class. This | :39:19. | :39:25. | |
proposed insurrection? A very solemn mutiny. This is happening all over | :39:26. | :39:32. | |
the world, that has not been a star Trek about the 1970s, Wilson ran the | :39:33. | :39:36. | |
more effective campaign in a country that was falling apart when is what | :39:37. | :39:39. | |
is happening at the moment is in fact revolt of rising expectation. | :39:40. | :39:43. | |
One of the reasons there is an immigration issue is the economy has | :39:44. | :39:47. | |
been doing so well, it has been attracting more people not only from | :39:48. | :39:52. | |
the EU but the rest of the world. And discouraging people from | :39:53. | :39:56. | |
leaving, which is white net migration has gone up so part of the | :39:57. | :40:00. | |
issue is, I agree, a populist backlash against the political elite | :40:01. | :40:04. | |
but we must recognise that in some measure, David Cameron is a victim | :40:05. | :40:09. | |
of his own success. The success of the economy and creating jobs, there | :40:10. | :40:13. | |
is very low -- unemployment in the country, despite the warnings... The | :40:14. | :40:19. | |
public are listening to and saying, you are one of them and you don't | :40:20. | :40:24. | |
get it. His net migration target has hugely angry voters because the | :40:25. | :40:26. | |
Conservatives have been unable to articulate how they can meet this | :40:27. | :40:32. | |
and have a thriller last parliament they talked about EU reform and | :40:33. | :40:35. | |
freedom of movement and they could not get that and they are stuck with | :40:36. | :40:38. | |
this target that they keep sticking to purely to be able to stick to the | :40:39. | :40:42. | |
promises, which is something politicians are obsessed with. I | :40:43. | :40:46. | |
thought the referendum is a mistake but in the immigration debate it | :40:47. | :40:51. | |
seems that we have lost sight of the fact that the majority of people | :40:52. | :40:54. | |
came to this country in the last two years and were not from the EU, | :40:55. | :40:56. | |
asylum seekers are tiny percentage of the people that come to this | :40:57. | :41:00. | |
country, we have total control over this. This is a debate about the EU. | :41:01. | :41:08. | |
Membership of the EU. Most of the migrants come here from outside the | :41:09. | :41:13. | |
EU. The public ride in broad sense to feel like we have been ripped | :41:14. | :41:18. | |
off? People think they have been told things will work for us but not | :41:19. | :41:23. | |
here? The vast majority of the working classes, a skilled and | :41:24. | :41:28. | |
semiskilled and unskilled, feel no benefit whatsoever from the | :41:29. | :41:32. | |
recovery. Our economy might well be the best in Europe and one of the | :41:33. | :41:36. | |
best in the world but the recovery is incredibly fragile, we still have | :41:37. | :41:40. | |
a huge national debt and the national deficit is growing, not | :41:41. | :41:48. | |
shrinking. If mass immigration is so good for the economy, why are people | :41:49. | :41:51. | |
struggling for jobs in this country in certain areas? What is | :41:52. | :41:57. | |
interesting is Trevor from the sun is quite close to where you are in | :41:58. | :42:03. | |
the Guardian although you focus on the British elite and you focus on | :42:04. | :42:10. | |
the EU elite. This referendum is not one that anyone particularly wanted | :42:11. | :42:14. | |
to have, the question is not one the voters are opposing, if you talk | :42:15. | :42:19. | |
about the Lisbon Treaty or the European Central Bank, they say, why | :42:20. | :42:24. | |
have no wages not gone up and when can make it scuttled the housing | :42:25. | :42:28. | |
ladder? They have their own answers and they try to squeeze them into | :42:29. | :42:31. | |
this binary of in or out. I completely agree with Isabel about | :42:32. | :42:37. | |
immigration, it has been wave after wave of broken promises, everything | :42:38. | :42:41. | |
from Iraq to the boom were meant to be going through to what was meant | :42:42. | :42:45. | |
to replace the industrialisation in places like the Northeast and Wales. | :42:46. | :42:50. | |
Let us finish on Labour, he started on the Conservatives. In many | :42:51. | :42:55. | |
respects, this is turning out to be a very big problem for Labour. | :42:56. | :43:01. | |
Labour is the weak link. It is the leadership of Jeremy Corbyn that is | :43:02. | :43:05. | |
a problem. Really, this referendum is going to the wire because of | :43:06. | :43:10. | |
Jeremy Corbyn and he is a disastrous leader who cannot get his supporters | :43:11. | :43:13. | |
are to support Remain. At the start of the campaign Labour MPs were | :43:14. | :43:17. | |
worried about the lack of enthusiasm for turning photo site but I was | :43:18. | :43:21. | |
talking to some of the last few weeks who said you don't necessarily | :43:22. | :43:24. | |
want voters to come out because they will Vote Leave, we would rather | :43:25. | :43:28. | |
they stayed in bed and that is not just Jeremy Corbyn. This is an | :43:29. | :43:33. | |
institutional Labour problem. That they have not addressed for years | :43:34. | :43:36. | |
and some of them are starting to worry this could be the party's | :43:37. | :43:41. | |
Scottish problem, they were warned about a problem with the | :43:42. | :43:43. | |
nationalists and they never really addressed it. They are doing the | :43:44. | :43:48. | |
same immigration. Suddenly, something happens that they cannot | :43:49. | :43:53. | |
control which is a referendum in which they are on the wrong side. | :43:54. | :43:58. | |
You are looking at the kind of slowed death of Labour, South Wales, | :43:59. | :44:06. | |
the Northeast. But you also looking at a disintegration of the liberal | :44:07. | :44:09. | |
mainstream and both parties because represents that but also the wing of | :44:10. | :44:15. | |
the Dutch are right of Labour MPs and there is no currency in being a | :44:16. | :44:21. | |
mainstream centrist politician, all the hot money goes to the polls of | :44:22. | :44:27. | |
the political debate. Are the centrist ones in the Tory party and | :44:28. | :44:31. | |
Labour Party, might they say we have got a lot of common with each other? | :44:32. | :44:36. | |
We disagree on everything expect the simple fact is, the question of | :44:37. | :44:40. | |
immigration has affected Labour voters in a way in which has been | :44:41. | :44:44. | |
undeniable except in the Labour Party. We need to leave it there. | :44:45. | :44:46. | |
Well, that is it from us for tonight, and from | :44:47. | :44:49. | |
We are not here tomorrow - but we will all be watching | :44:50. | :44:53. | |
the results programme on BBC One which starts at 9.55pm. | :44:54. | :44:55. | |
Emily will be there, as well as David Dimbleby. | :44:56. | :44:57. | |
I will be back in this chair on Friday, | :44:58. | :44:59. | |
Thunderstorms have already bought some intense downpours across parts | :45:00. | :45:21. | |
of Sussex and Kent this evenly and an Amber Warning in force from the | :45:22. | :45:24. | |
edge that Office means there is potential for further disruptive | :45:25. | :45:25. | |
downpours in | :45:26. | :45:26. |