24/06/2016 Newsnight

Well, at 4.40am, we can now say that...

The people of the United Kingdom have voted to leave

I'm not going to be here a lot longer, I'm nearly 80.

Well, by about ten o'clock, I would say, would be about right!

I do not think it would be right for me to try to be the captain

that steers our country to its next destination.

Are you not worried about what you're hearing this morning?

About David Cameron resigning or the strength of the pound?

A letter of no confidence has been tabled with Jeremy Corbyn.

We will begin to prepare the legislation that

would be required to enable a new independence referendum.

Anybody that doesn't think this is big stuff needs

I'm kind of thinking of moving to another country.

It is no longer right for this country.

Because the French don't like us and the Germans don't

I don't know what's got to happen next.

We've got nowt, so what can get worse?

It's the biggest financial story since the crash, a huge political

story, a once in a generation foreign politcy shift,

all in one day - not to mention the constitutional

We can keep calm, but carrying on as before, not really possible.

The enormity of what has happened has been sinking into voters

We mustn't over interpret the result.

If one in 50 of all voters had switched from Leave to Remain, we'd

But we mustn't under-interpret it either, and all that it represents.

Is this the first vote ever to say it's NOT the economy

The latest of a wave of insurrections sweeping the West.

A challenge to the established order and the political class.

The discontented getting their own back.

Or should you view it as an inter-generational struggle?

The polls showing under 45s voted in and over 45s wanted us out.

And there's an aftermath of bitterness.

One young man's tweet: "I'm so angry", he said.

"A generation given everything - free education, golden pensions,

social mobility - have voted to strip my generation's future".

For some, it comes down to nothing less than a culture war.

So who's corrupt? Europe.

Youthful urban liberals versus older social conservatives.

The former worry that Britain will now turn its back

The latter think it's time for their voice to be heard again.

It's not as clean-cut as that, but that's where the argument goes -

Well, it's for the history books to argue about the causes

We're going to do something different tonight.

What's next for politics in this country?

The two major parties both looking battered, both with leadership

How will the EU now choose to treat us?

And how does our decision affect the EU?

And what's next for the UK, with Scotland voting

Well, of the three "what nexts", politics comes first,

At a turbulent time like this, it would be great to

have a Nelson Mandela to take over, heal the wounds, articulate a vision

for the country and negotiate a new arrangement with goodwill

Well, Donald Trump flew into Britain today, but he's not available.

It is an awful time to be a mainstream politician.

I'm going to be talking to some of them in a minute.

But first, I'm here with our political editor, Nick Watt.

In Westminster this morning, shock? They were shell-shocked in Downing

Street. They had a simple thought, Project Fear would deliver a second

referendum when what we saw power and authority seeping away from

Number 10 a number 11 Downing St, he might have thought that the

Chancellor would calm down the market but that job was left to the

Governor of the Bank of England and he had a couple of tweets from the

Chancellor. We were talking to one Whitehall source who, like a number

ten to do not, the Centre has fallen apart. They went on to say, no

communication from Number 10, we assume they have gone to the pub.

As dawn broke today, written a look to the most momentous shuffling of

the political order since the Second World War. The Suez Canal...

Evaluation of sterling, the defenestration of Margaret Thatcher.

We are leaving Downing Street... Arguably, they were trumped today

when Britain stumbled out of the EU. Overturning for decades of

assumptions about Britain's place in Europe was of an order of such

magnitude that it made the resignation of the sitting Prime

Minister a second order issue. David Cameron's voice cracked as he

announced his departure. I love this country. And I feel honoured to have

served it. And I will do everything I can in future to help this great

country succeed. Thank you very much. Any hope of a Roman style

triumph were soon crushed- Boris Johnson greeted by protesters as he

left his house. The Prime Minister's nemesis looked funereal at the death

of what they have achieved something. I want to begin by paying

tribute to David Cameron, they had spoken earlier from Downing Street,

and I know that I speak for Michael in saying how sad I am that he has

decided to step down but obviously, I respect that decision. Johnson

owns the next few months but his hopes of reaching Number 10 might

hinge on whether his assurances of a seamless transition to life outside

the EU country. Michael Gove insists he has no interest in leadership but

a fellow Leave campaigner is not sure. The Conservative party has so

many talented people, dozens come to mind but my top three would be

Michael Gove, Boris Johnson and Andrea Leadsom. Will the next

Conservative prime ministers be for Brexit? The Prime Minister stood

down because he failed that having backed Remain he cannot increment

the will of the people expressed in the referendum, but applies to

anyone else who supported Remain. Within months the circus will have

moved on but for the moment David Cameron finds himself at the hostage

to his former allies as he accepts their timetable for a British exit

from the EU. David Cameron hoped to end his Premiership as one of the

great Conservative social reformers but instead, he finds our ebbing

away. I am not sure if I recall this a zombie government but it feels

more like a caretaker government for the next few months. We had a

government with a massive legislative agenda with prison and

NHS reform and Universal Credit, and a lot of that has been on hold

because of the referendum. Now, because of the leadership campaign,

we have a Prime Minister effectively an interim Prime Minister for

months, and because of summer and the concerns about the EU, what will

happen with negotiations, even more will probably be in abeyance for the

time being. You wait an age for a leadership crisis and then two of

them come along. If you are worse after the Prime Minister announced

plans to resign, two veteran Labour MPs said they would lay the ground

for a challenge to Jeremy Corbyn. Others share those concerns. I

understand that motion and the concerns of Margaret and other

colleagues. Of looking at the results of yesterday. We went into

this referendum campaign expecting 70 or 80% of Labour supporters and

voters to vote Remain and we barely got 50% and if he cannot demonstrate

after this massive test that the Labour Party can retrieve ground,

there are more problems ahead, we could have a General Election in six

months and at the moment, it's on the outcome of yesterday, it is not

looking good for the Labour Party and his leadership. We got the

country back! It was Independence Day for the winners but the most

unashamedly pro-EU party said that Britain should not give up on its

European destiny. We heard Nigel Farage ungraciously before the

result when he thought he had lost saying there could be a second

referendum. I will not say that. If things change as the months go by

and public opinion significantly changes, we must make sure we keep

all options open and we must not shackle ourselves to the corpse of a

Brexit government. For some, the European dream will never die. But

for another generation, at least, Britain's European journey is at an

end. Here with me, the former

Tory Chancellor, Ken Clarke, Suzanne Evans from Vote Leave

and Tristram Hunt, the Labour MP for Stoke-on-Trent,

which voted to leave the EU with one of the biggest margins

in the country. Ken Clarke, 46 years in politics,

all devoted to the European project, you must feel gutted? I do, I

started as a very active Conservative student politician

supporting Harold Wilson's first bid to join the European Community so it

is ironic that 50 years later, this erotic argument is still going on

and we are leaving the European Union. I actually, deliberately,

have tried to control my annoyance and anger and distress. Because at

the moment, we have to decide what we do next, which I think is what

the programme is about. We have a caretaker government with no policy

of any kind on what our relationship is going to be in the outside world

or Europe in particular. We do not know what we shall do about

immigration but a lot of people were told to be very frightened. And I

think, I have to count to ten and wonder what the devil do after this

extraordinary, very narrow result. Can I ask a personal reflection? Ed

Miliband last year stood against a government and he said, I am better

for business because not gone to risk the nation's departure from the

European Union. You must have thought, it would be better if Ed

Miliband had won the 20 15th election? I do not think that! My

generation thinks referendums are absurd way of running the country

but there was no point in emphasising that once we have gone

out to have one and no point in emphasising that right now because

we have had one and we are where we are and everybody on both sides and

I'm sure people on both sides feel as passionately as I do, the country

at the moment is in a period of great uncertainty. It needs a

government, it needs a government that can start getting on the

business of running the country and several crises again and it needs to

decide, as we have to negotiate with the EU, what exactly do we want?

Quickly, the other two of you, do you think a General Election is

required at this time of time? I would say no, I am ecstatic at the

result but Iraq and that any half of the country voted the other way and

will be quite worried and I have spoken to build today who have

concerns about where we go next and I have been doing their best to

reassure them. I think General Election, for me, would bring

another level of uncertainty, which is best avoided. General Election?

There is a high likelihood if we have a new leader of the

Conservative party, they will want to develop their own mandate so

whether we have an election in autumn or in spring, and what they

have to go to the country on his the article 50 strategy. There is a

serious risk of an election and I cannot quite see at the moment how

the government can reform with a Parliamentary majority to make the

kind of changes that most of those four Brexit want. They do not know.

I think to go into a General Election would add to the risks of

where we are more uncertainty and chaos and another daft and dreadful

campaign. With a very indecisive result, that would be disastrous.

Who should be the next Prime Minister, before we hear from you,

who do you think, Tristram Hunt? The next leader of the Conservative

party? From the Labour Party perspective, I would regard or as

Johnson as a very successful celebrity candidate. A very clever

man. He has used that intelligence to appeal to some very basic

instincts. Alongside Michael Gove, he would seek to deliver a very

neoliberal Tory Brexit. I don't want any of them. Is that all right?

Suzanne Evans? It has to be somebody passionate about Brexit and with a

clear vision. Not Theresa May? I would say not. It is a shame because

she was one of the frontrunners and I think that she come out for ten

one. Andrea Leadsom has been one of the standout stars. And Chancellor

for sure. Because nobody has the first idea of what the economic

policy of the government is now supposed to be... Nobody has a first

idea. What we are saying about immigrants and what we're not

saying, there is a danger the country will fill around with

another leadership election, having... It does. We need a

balanced government, headed by somebody of balanced views and not

somebody who is good at foot opportunities. And we need people

who can settle down to the serious business of government. -- photo

opportunities. Theresa May? The referendum campaign, when not

washing immigrants, was Boris and David, and the British, they have

caused a crisis for half of the Western world, if they decide to

have a fun Conservative leadership battle... That is hyperbole!

Are you going to give us a name? Let's turn to Szczecin hunt, the

Tories are fighting with each other and Labour are fighting with the

voters, which is a much more dangerous place for the party. This

referendum exposed tensions in the Labour Party and labour movement and

where you see in Stoke-on-Trent 70-30 out and contrast that with

some of the votes in Brighton, Bristol, Norwich, or Exeter, other

Labour areas, we have got this divide between our traditional

working class Labour communities who felt real pressure on the

globalisation over the last ten years, felt pressure on wages levels

from immigration, feel discontent about the level of change, versus as

you said in your intro... I understand the problems you are

describing but it's an enormous problem for a political party to

find out half of its base is basically completely at odds with it

and doesn't view the world in the same way at all. And we have had

these problems in the past and Ken will know there are any number of

books called What's Wrong With Labour, Will It Ever Come Back? If

you have somebody with a social democratic view who people trust and

want to put their country in the trust of you can overcome these

problems, no doubt. Jeremy Corbyn, does he meet that job description?

Ken said an interesting thing about the serious business of government.

We now face really serious, tough and difficult times. This is a

national crisis and the job of opposition, rather like John Smith

during the Maastricht Treaty, is to provide strategic vision and

forensic detail. Jeremy Corbyn is very, very good at energising the

base and making those who are already convinced of Labour ideals

feel better about themselves. Whether he is the man to make sure

that Labour values are at the core of every negotiation strategy. A lot

of people think he's not the right man for the job. Whether he is the

right man to have the Labour values at the core of the re-negotiation

strategy, I'm not convinced he has those capacities. Suzanne Evans,

there is a problem with trust of politicians, isn't there? That's one

of the reasons you've done very well. When exactly will be get the

?350 million extra per week spent on the NHS you promised for the whole

campaign? When will that happen? It has gone already. We actually

promised 100 million specifically for the NHS. I saw one thing, 350

million for the NHS. I saw it on a bus. We said 350 million to spend on

our own priorities like the NHS. And then a specific proposal for the NHS

which was 100 million and that's the kind of cash injection the NHS needs

and it's fantastic to have this money back. When will we have the

100 million a week? Into a three years' time. Do you not think the

possibility is that the things that have brought mainstream politicians

into such disrepute and low regard and lack of trust and nothing they

say is believed is now about to hit you and all of those who made that

case? I don't think so, the British electorate made their decision. They

were looking at the asterisk, which wasn't there, that said read this

very carefully. The campaign was dreadful. The public got angry and

confused. They were no better informed when they finished them

when they started, which is why lots of older people in particular were

angry with the politicians and antiestablishment and a lot of this

is a protest vote. The worst thing they did was talk about these Syrian

refugees, Britain has complete control about how many Syrians come

over here. On Wednesday and we do now, it's nothing to do with the EU

whether they are admitted and settle there. Had a poster with thousands

of them streaming in. It was disgusting. Let's not go back over

it. Winnie Byanyima man to unite the party and the country and we need a

policy and the sooner the better. -- we need the right man. Thank you all

very much. Of course, alongside

the politics is economics. Famously, we like to describe

ourselves as the fifth largest Today, we came close

to being the sixth. So when you convert our pound-based

national income into dollars, The financial gyrations

were considerable and some companies' shares were pummelled

in the expectation that things Our business editor,

Helen Thomas, is here. Helen, take us through some of those

gyrations. So, you heard about the meltdown, there is ample cause for

concern but the odd crumb of comfort also. The pound, our best barometer

for the overall confidence in the UK economy. You can see that it surged

higher as hopes built for a Remain victory last night and then it

plunged, a huge move for a currency. I've never seen it move like that!

Late in the day it found a level, around 1.37 to the dollar and

similar story on the stock markets. Here you can see a very dramatic

drop at the open of the markets. Just over on the left. Both for the

FTSE 100 and the more UK focused 250. Banks and property stocks

hard-hit but then the markets came back and recovered. So what we

didn't see was this sort of downward panicked spiral that would indicate

a total loss of confidence in the UK. Having said that, it was a

really tough day and that reflects investors marking down there outlook

for the UK. Some might say the worrying thing is not getting

through the next week, it's the longer term. We may be in this slow

grinding process of figuring out what the economic hit is going to

be. We know some of the areas of concern because the Bank of England

helpfully told us last week. They said while consumer spending has

been solid, there is grabbing evidence that uncertainty about the

referendum is leading to delays to major economic decisions. They

mentioned a commercial and real estate transactions, car purchases

and business investment. In those sectors that were slowing, the

shutters come down. That is the concern. Most analysts believe we

need to slow down, possibly a recession. Let's leave the idea of a

crisis, you can still have an ugly outcome. If business and hiring

dries up quickly, you could see business was already falling into

the vote, in that scenario unemployment starts to rise and

people worry about jobs, banks pull back on lending, partly because they

are worried about loans being repaid and that hits confidence and

consumer spending. Meanwhile, a weaker currency means higher

inflation and the Bank of England which targets inflation may not feel

it Kammy act aggressively to stimulate the economy. It does get

confusing. Is there any more sanguine scenario you can paint. --

it can act aggressively. A weaker pound could boost exports. More

importantly the Bank of England might say we are not going to worry

about inflation right now, we are going to look through that, they

could cut rates and stimulate the economy in other ways and maybe they

have enough tools in their toolkit to do that. The irony is that the

Governor Mark Carney who has had a pretty tired dot-mac hard time of

late, his crucial to how this pans out. -- a pretty hard time.

The next of our What Nows is Europe itself.

After the French revolution, other royal families worried

about how to keep their heads, there's a bit of that

If any eurocrats were still harbouring dreams of creating

a European superstate, Britain has shown that the old

concept of the nation state is not going down without a fight.

Critically there is the looming question of what our relationship

with the EU might be. Our diplomatic editor

Mark Urban is in Brussels. Good evening.

The thing that is defining attitudes here is a fear of contagion. Will

Heard Marine Le Pen, some Dutch Eurosceptics and others as well in

Europe welcoming today's result, but none of them are in power right now.

And none of them is in a position to deliver an in-out referendum in

another European country any time soon. But the attitude that seems to

be dominant here, we have certainly heard some of the big hitters in the

Brussels machine voicing this attitude, is that Brexit should

happen not just quickly but in a very tough or exemplary way. In

other words, they want the other countries in Europe that may be

watching to see the Brits go out on very tough terms. Fascinating

insights tonight from Wolfgang Schreiber, the German finance

minister, very influential, a leaked Brexit plan of his suggests trade

terms and an association agreement not like Norway, as some people

discussed in the UK, not like Switzerland, more the sort of deal

that Turkey or Canada might be negotiating in the latter case. Very

tough terms, all to do with trying to head off a risk, which even last

night and was nobody in this town really had got to grips with the

idea of what was about to hit it. they woke up to the day that

ever-closer union died. Across the airwaves and in many

languages, that dread news sank in. With markets plunging

across many countries, the woman styled Queen Europe

by some called for calm. TRANSLATION: What the outcome

of this watershed will mean to us in the coming days,

weeks, months and years If we, the other 27 member states

of the European Union, are capable and willing not to rush

into any quick and easy decisions which would only further

disunite Europe. But if we're capable and willing

to assess the situation calmly and soberly in order to come

to a joint decision on this basis. At the Commission, leaders

of the European institutions met And, very soon, it became clear

that there would be no further We are already hearing voices

here from the other 27 members of the EU that they should force

the pace of Brexit in order to protect their own economies

and political systems. And now we're going to hear

from the bosses of the union's big institutions, and it'll be

fascinating to see to what extent they think the union should drive

a tough exit bargain with the UK. For the man running the European

bureaucracy, even the words to describe this moment

seemed to stick. The British people expressed

its views on their... We now expect the United Kingdom

government to give effect to this decision of the British people

as soon as possible. As for what it meant

for the remaining 27, watch this. REPORTER: Is this the beginning

of the end of the European Union? Blunt but very much

to the liking of the non-British So, Europe is in the deepest

of crises as consultations begin And there are already suggestions

by many players here that any deal should be exemplary,

with the UK denied access It is a consequence of the British

vote because the single market, or the European Economic Area,

includes also the free That was the problem

in the referendum. So I think that the only way

to establish any relationship between Britain and the European

Union is using a trade agreement. Like Europe has trade agreements

with a number of countries. There are those who favour more

generalist terms, but so far There is a statue just

outside the commission. And on the day that the Brexit

earthquake hit this town, Earlier I was joined

by Jonathan Powell, Tony Blair's Did he think the decision

to leave was irreversible or was there a still a route

where Britain could retain its Well, I think this was a vote

against something rather than a vote It was a vote against our current

relationship with the EU but it wasn't a vote for what sort

of new relationship we should have. So I must say I think David Cameron

is right to delay the start of negotiations until there

is a new Prime Minister. But I would go further than that,

I think any new Prime Minister needs

a mandate for a negotiation. He has to set out what he is for,

what sort of new relationship are we

going to have with EU? I think that's very,

very important that they get that I don't think you can

really start negotiations until there has been

an election, not just the choice

of a new Tory leader. So, hang on, is it possible

a party could go into an election saying we are in, we're

just going to ignore the referendum and we'll just

negotiate us to remain? Of course you can, that's

what elections are about. You go for an election in a mandate,

one of the many reasons Mrs Thatcher was

against referenda was because she thought you should decide this

in representative democracy But the main point here is this

is a vote against something, The Brexiteers were

completely divided on what they wanted,

no one knows what they mean. So someone has got to set out

a positive mandate and A lot of the Europeans

are saying they The path you are

describing, and indeed the path that the Leave campaign has

been describing is one that takes We will be waiting months before

the negotiation gets going. Do you think we can really

keep our European David Cameron has already set out

the timetable as far It's only us who can start

Article 50, not them. So I totally understand why

they wanted to be quick, because the uncertainty

is hurting them, not just us. But in the end they

are going to have to wait for us and I think we would be

sensible - A, to have a negotiating position,

B, to have a new Prime Minister, and C, for

that Prime Minister to have a mandate

for his negotiating. This is really important

about our future. You can't just go in there not clear

what you want. The other critical thing is,

how hardball do you think Because, already we've heard some

reports saying the Norway option, forget it, you're not

going to get the Norway option, that's not

on the What do you think

the European Union, what line do you think

they They are not going to try and punish

us because they want to have good The point is that they

have their interests. They are going to meet at 27

without us next week to start working out

what their position is. Their main priority is to keep

the EU together, to stop the So there are not going to offer

us anything that will encourage the Dutch or the Finns

for the Danes to leave. So they are not going to offer us

a super deal outside the EU because otherwise

they will start losing other people. They've got to take

care of their interests and we've got to fight

for And bluffing, do you think there has

been some bluff over the last few weeks in the run-up

to the referendum? If you remember, Boris

Johnson said before he became the leader

of the Brexit campaign, he said his

preferred option would be to have a new negotiation and a new

referendum, and that the referendum So I'm hoping that he

becomes leader of the Tory party, which are not hoping,

but if he does then he will have that mandate, he can go off and make

an negotiation and then have a new Remember, the Irish have done

that twice this century. They voted against the treaty,

had a It seems very unlikely

at the moment, the EU saying no to it,

the Brexit campaign saying no to it, but that is one option when we go

forward and when people realise quite how

ghastly the alternatives are. We've been talking

about Britain and its Let's just briefly talk

about the EU itself. How dangerous is the British vote

for the existence of the EU? Well, it is a threat

to the existence of the EU because it's going

to encourage other Eurosceptics, and you can see who the friends

of the Eurosceptics are, people

like Le Pen, people like Trump. Those sort of people are going to be

agitating to break Europe up. And of course, European

governments are going to resist that, so it is

a Even leaving that to one side,

what's going to happen to Europe without Britain is it's

going to become less liberal, it's going to become more

integrated and it's going to become more German

and that's going to worry

lots of countries in Europe. That's why they wanted

us to stay in. That's an inevitable consequence

of us leaving. Christine, how does this look from

France the safety? It looks pretty ghastly. -- this evening. But

listening to be very interesting discussion you just had, I think you

should not underestimate the determination of the key member

states on the continent not to let the British play the fiddle to

determine the timetable. We should just sit and wait for them to

actually act. It will very much depend on what happens on Monday

when Angela Merkel meets in Berlin with Francois Hollande, the Italian

Prime Minister and Donald Tusk, the president of the European Council.

You will hear what the tone will be and, again, as has been said by your

Brussels correspondent, there is a series of meetings next week and,

again, the EU had been functioning for 17 years before Britain was

accepted. I think there is a degree of arrogance at times, if I may, at

this late hour in the night, to think we shall disintegrate after

this rather ghastly result. Can I wish you, David Cameron is stepping

down, it will take three months to collect a new Prime Minister and

leader of the Conservative party, nobody feels that David Cameron can

do the negotiation, you will have to wait for three months before this

starts? Yes. You think that people in Brussels or just sit and wait? I

think the process will be so, located, the economic and financial

costs, we have seen nothing today, of course the kind lost a great deal

of value and the markets will be shaken for quite some time. -- the

pound. There will be a lot of work being done in the meantime and it is

not going to be done by the snap of a finger but, again, on the

continent, there was also this idea that the British, especially the

older generation, the ones who really have deprived the young ones

of the benefits of Europe, they are going to feel the brunt of this and

that is something which, on the continent, will be closely watched,

especially by Eastern European countries, which might, I remember,

Britain wanted so much inside the EU and the night complain about

immigration from Eastern Europe. Dan Hammond, they do not want us to take

time. They want us to get on with it? Perfectly reasonable? You have

answer that, we will have to wait until there is somebody to do those

negotiations. Getting this right matters much more than the time and

they getting it right, I mean by being fair to our allies on the

continent as well as getting a deal in our own interests and it would be

crazy to rush into something after 43 years at the expense of getting

something mutually satisfactory. Jonathan Powell said we need to have

an election, we have not yet worked out the model? One of the reasons

that muscles is so unpopular because it is seen to be contemptuous of

public opinion and it is incredible that less than 24 hours after the

result we have already got people trying to undo this, but what I

would say, to soften what I have just said a little bit, plainly we

have referred it to say but are going to leave the EU, it was a

narrow majority, 48% of people voting to stay in and Scotland

voting to stay in, Northern Ireland and Gibraltar, we on the winning

side have to be cognisant of the extent to which opinion is divided

and carry as many remain voters as possible and that might mean that

quite a lot of the existing arrangements remain in place as we

try to find a status that both sides can agree to. It sounds like you, I

do not know if you are smoking for Vote Leave or Boris Johnson, it

sounds like you are veering towards the Norway option? A compromise? In

the single market? My issue with the EU has been a lack of sovereignty

and democracy. Of course, there are economic issues. It would not

exactly be no way, we are different country, 65 million, but the idea of

staying within it, market but outside the political integration,

that is usable. And it means free movement of Labour, not EU

citizenship with all of those acquired rights. We have been

through three months of agony. The public have been led to believe that

what they have voted for is an end to this. A very important point-

from the moment we joined we had the right to take up a job offer in

another member state, legal entitlement if you presented your

contract. But changed the Maastricht Treaty with EU citizenship, people

given legal entitlement to vote in other countries and claim welfare

and have the same university tuition and so on. That will change. Why do

you not say this during the campaign? To say that you want a

system whereby we have free movement of Labour? Completely at odds with

what the public think they have voted for. I have spent four months

addressing rallies virtually every day and everyone I would say, but

not imagine that if we leave, that means zero immigration, we will have

some control over who comes in. You have given the impression... Your

campaign has given the impression that we will not be able to get

immigration down to tens of thousands inside the EU, most people

would say that gives the impression we will get it down if we are

outside? We want a measure of control, it would be for the future

parliament to determine those numbers and how many students and

doctors and whatever, but nobody has ever tried to put a number on it,

that will depend on the state of the economy at the time. Thank you.

Christine, we're out of time. We have hit a nerve with band. Thank

you so much. -- down. OK, there's one other potentially

momentous area to look at tonight: Time to dust off those

old Disunited Kingdom cliches that were so popular during

the Scottish referendum. Kirsty - give me a flavour

of the talk in Scotland about a second independence

referendum there. Well, firstly, after such a decisive

vote in Scotland to remain, this country feels like it is in limbo,

people are bewildered and devastated that England voted to leave and

Scotland is unable to move forward, Nicola Sturgeon says referendum is

highly likely but she cannot afford to lose again and she has said there

is no guarantee that people who voted no in the first referendum

would vote for independence. So many questions. What would the impact be

on the economy and Scotland? Look what happened to oil after the last

one. Would we really have a closed border and tariffs when we trade 64%

and the rest of the UK? And what currency would Scotland use? We

cannot use the pound and will not use the euro. But for many people

now, and Bishop of the EU is a fundamental, non-negotiable so the

SNP is looking for a period of calm. Nicola Sturgeon had option but to

address the question of an independence referendum straightaway

this morning. The manifesto the SNP was elected on last month said

this... The Scottish parliament should have the right to hold

another referendum if there is a significant and material change in

the circumstances that prevailed in 2014, such as Scotland being taken

out of the EU against our will. Scotland does face the prospect. It

is a significant and material change in circumstances and it is therefore

a statement of the obvious that the option of a second referendum must

be on the table. And it is on the table. From here, the UK seems in a

very different place and Scotland is very much another country. Now there

is a greater period of uncertainty north of the border than in England.

The mechanics of the second referendum or not clear what it is

unlikely that Westminster would deny Scotland a fresh independence vote

because, from the Shetland Isles to the Borders, the majority wants to

stay within the EU. There is a sense of unreality today. People cannot

quite believe their southern neighbours would be such worlds

apart. I cannot believe we have done this. I am very scared. Especially

with the Tory government that we have. I think especially in

Scotland, we do not have much of the boys in the UK at all. Do you feel

that we are very different in Scotland from England? Yes, there is

going to be a split. In and out. The roots of our relations with Europe

are long and steep, the old reliance, the treaty between the

Scots and the French were signed in the 13th century and Scotland has a

long tradition of sending its sons and daughters overseas, all over the

world, and we, in turn, have welcomed many different nations you-

Russians, Italians, Pakistanis, and immigration does not seem to be the

same issue here as it is south of the border. Why is it that

immigration does not seem to be such an issue as it is in England? I

think that Scotland as a race of people are more multicultural, our

culture is more varied, if you think about storytelling and music,

anything like that, I think that we are more accepting of new ideas. Are

you Scottish or French? Neither, I am Italian! Italian! And tell me,

you feel welcome in Scotland? This morning, when it came out of my

flat, I was feeling a little bit less welcome. But I think that they

voted for staying. I think I will try to feel welcome anyway because I

am welcome, maybe! In six weeks, the eyes of the world will be on

Edinburgh for another reason- people will come from over the world to the

biggest international arts festival on the planet. And the festival was

set up in the wake of the Second World War to encourage cultural

relations between Scotland, Britain and Europe to make sure that another

war in Europe would be unimaginable. Nicola Sturgeon made it clear that

she wants to build a consensus in the country around referendum. Now

it is possible that senior figures from other political parties would

be part of that consensus. Referring, finally, to live in an

independent Scotland within the EU rather than in an increasingly this

United Kingdom divorced from the EU. Now Scotland-England is one division

- young and old another. There's an anger in large

parts of the country, parts that have not felt blessed

by the benefits of globalisation in contrast to bustling metropolitan

hubs like London or Manchester And that schism

has asserted itself to the shock Filmmaker Nick Blakemore spent

the last couple of days in Burnley, which voted two-thirds for Brexit,

to see what was motivating We won't lose control,

we have lost control. For me it comes down to,

when we vote somebody in, whoever gets into the government,

they make the rules. And at the moment there

is somebody above them. That's why I'm going

to be voting to leave. What really gets me is this,

I fought for this country in 82. This government now is going,

immigrants, here you go, tick, I don't want it,

send them back home. We joined the EU

for one thing, yeah? And then it comes to light,

it's not a better life. Vote for hope, that was the thing

in the paper. You can't vote for hope,

there's no hope nowadays. We've had enough of the Tory

scenario, the The minute this referendum

is over and if Remain I think we should

leave and give it a try and we should get our

independence back because it's just It has, I've got to admit,

it's the one thing, it came down to democracy,

sovereignty, and the NHS. There is a lot of people come from

abroad and they've done good for I was born in Germany,

I'm a foreigner myself. We are not little Englanders.

We've always looked outwards. England was the greatest

thing I've ever known when I came over here and you were

free and if you worked hard you got I've never had a day's

benefit, I've never had I'm 83 years of age

and all I can get is Not that I need it,

I've got food in my belly, I'm getting by and I'm

not complaining. When I look round there

is a lot of folk worse. But I do object to people who have

worked all their life, just None of us know what

the future holds. I think that's why everyone

is undecided. My main point is,

you can't base your argument on a country and an entire

superstate that hasn't got your best That's my main reason

for leaving, who else is going to look after our country

but us? Good evening, and

welcome at the end of this momentous day when each one

of us has had the chance to say what At 10pm the polling stations close

after weeks, months, years of The BBC is forecasting that the UK

has voted to leave the European Union after

more than 40 years. Good morning.

Hello. Come on in.

Come out first. I don't know yet, I haven't

switched it on, I've put Fingers crossed I'm not

going to look stupid. Really?

Seriously? Tanya, just tell me what's

your reaction to that? I'm over the moon,

I don't know what to say. Everybody woke up in time.

Everybody listened. Everybody understands, yes,

it's going to be rough at the Some views from Burnley. With me,

two historians, David Starkey and Kate Williams, from the Times

newspaper Tim on Connery and writer and equality campaign Paris leads.

What is your reaction as you listened to that? I recognise those

towns, that's where and from command they will be upset when they find

out they've been lied to. They've been lied to. People voted with good

intentions but we are being led down a very dark path. Let's asked

whether the nation is in some way historically unusually divided.

Kate, are we in... We are incredibly divided, this is one of the most

divisive events since the Civil War and the most historical events since

the act of union itself. We see divisions between North and South,

young and old and the fact Scotland will have a referendum. Northern

Ireland, there are concerns about Martin McGuinness saying joining

together and we know the Scottish referendum will trigger questions

about the referendum in Wales so we are seeing massive divisions. When

we see a petition getting lots of people's signatures saying London

might set up as a different city state. I think it is a joke!

LAUGHTER I'm not entirely sure, there is some

joking in it but that shows the level of the division. It is huge.

You are both Remainers and you are both Brexit supporters, David, do

you think the nation is historically divided? It is but I think Kate is

slightly exaggerating, I can think Ireland, Roman Catholicism, I can

think of all sorts of things that have split us a map even the whole

question of whether we fought the Nazis or not, the country was hugely

divided. The more interesting question is why this has happened.

It seemed to me your Burnley film was absolutely right. What has

happened is the European Union is a proxy. It's a proxy for deep

discontent with experts, with the political class and so on. I think

it is also the fact that the political parties have been led, for

the last nearly 20 years by leaders, Blair on the one hand and Cameron on

the other, that thought it was very clever to kick their supporters in

the goolies. Was at the right thing to get out of it if it is just a

proxy, you are implying, let's kick something, the EU is over there,

let's do that? A lot of people voted on that basis, I think. It's very

important we recognise that, which of course also allows for the kind

of point Daniel Hannan was making that perhaps we could begin to

reunite as a very real possibility. I think that what we've got to do is

something which no recent government has had the courage to do. We've got

a rediscovery sense of international interest. Britain has spent the

whole of its time arguing with got to be good, with got to support

European rights because otherwise the Russians will misbehave. We've

really got to start to do a Goodall. The voters we saw in Burnley are the

ones political parties are finding it difficult to reach, any political

party -- Charles de Gaulle. What is the answer to that? They are not

natural Conservative voters, your party is nowhere near them. Sure,

and you talk about Britain being divided but I'm based in Washington

for the times these paper and I'm seeing the whole Trump phenomenon

over there, we are all seeing the whole Trump phenomenon in. We are

six or seven years after the global crash and immediately after the

global crash people wanted governments to stabilise the

situation but now there is the hunger for reform and remedy. I

think we are seeing that right across the world. Today's revolt,

yesterday's revolt by Tour of Britain is, and they were the

overwhelming explanation for why we are leaving the European Union, that

has to be heeded. This isn't just a vote to leave the European Union,

this is a cry for help from a huge proportion of our publisher who

think all attacks isn't working for them. It is to do with austerity, I

agree but Wales has 500 million subsidy and huge votes against, we

didn't hear much talk about sovereignty in the same way and the

concern is this will not give the people what they want. You are

making an elementary confusion. No, I'm not. You are assuming the

economy is what always mattered. Austerity is tied up with the

economy. What this photo shows is that it is culture that matters --

what this vote shows. Politicians connecting with voters, Jo Cox did

it well and SNP in Scotland. Labour and Conservatives must put up their

hands and admit they are not getting it right. Your point about the

voters in Burnley, at the moment they are floating voters, the

Conservative leader who was as clever as Disraeli. Remember,

Disraeli captured the working man's vote in 1867 and there is the

possibility now of a Boris or another charismatic politician.

Let's ask if you think Boris is a healing politician? Horace's speech

was extraordinary, it wasn't a victory speech, I think he realises

he's got it wrong and this is really serious -- Boris's speech. I hope we

can have another referendum. Bad loser! I think I'd rather be a bad

loser, I've got more important things to worry about. People feel

they have been lied to. People have been lied to. There is so much more

voter regret than I've seen before. It is a clear illustration of why

the vote went why it did. People will be surprised with Boris

Johnson, he's probably the likely next Prime Minister of this country.

If you look at his record, he was championing the Living Wage before

other Conservatives. Same-sex marriage. He opposed the tax credit

cuts George Osborne proposed, he's a more interesting conservative than

people think. We have talked about the Burnley divide and the

metropolitan elite, but what about the generational divide? It is

striking, the under 45 Sam voted to stay in and be over 45 is to stay

out. There was a debate on Radio 5 live called grandma, what have you

done? The older generation don't have to live here as long as the

younger generation. Should we introduce a cut-off point beyond

which you can't vote? Your sense of sublime self entitlement. Are we

going to have those under 35 with two votes? We have had so much taken

away from us, I don't have to have my airtime taken away as well! You

haven't answered my question. You are not letting me because you are

interrupting me because you are a privileged white man who wants to

speak over me and this is the problem. Young people are getting

sick of it, sick of being spoken over and six of being patronised. We

have to pay for our education in a way that your generation didn't have

too. Everything that gets taken away, young people are being cut

off. I think there is a lot of frustration and for young people

Europe is somewhere we go on holiday and go clubbing, we don't have this

xenophobia. The young vote will be vital in Scotland, they gave the

vote to 16-year-olds and they were massive in the turnout. I noticed

Nigel Farage say, we can engage with the Commonwealth but I've watched

the Australian media who said today, why are we still linked to this

country that will be diminished, lose Scotland, possibly Wales and

the Commonwealth is due for the chop as well. This is not... Be careful

what you wish for is the message. In our relationship with Europe we have

a situation where people from Africa, Asia, Australasia, have

second-class status when it comes to coming into Britain, we prioritise

Europeans. The problem with with Little Britain is little

Europeanism. There will not be a Britain in ten years! That's about

it. Normally we are meant to be

the quietly stable, pragmatic nation that doesn't do revolutions

or chop people's heads off. But we will be back

with a special programme And right now, or as soon as I can

get to the Green Room, Go to our Facebook page,

ask questions there. A few of us will be talking

through the day.