22/06/2016 Newsnight


Film-maker Michael Cockerell looks at the conflict at the heart of the referendum campaign. Plus, with polling day tomorrow, a panel of journalists discuss who's ahead.

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I will go to Parliament and propose that the British people decide our


future in Europe through a referendum on Thursday the 23rd of


June. The choice is in your hands. And it's been a fraught fight


to the bitter last day. We'll look back at the campaign


and at what has cut through. Britain's not just deciding


on Europe, it's deciding Michael Cockerell has been looking


back at their history. We'll discuss the divisions that


have been exposed in the run-up And ask how our political parties


and the country will cope with the aftermath.


On Friday the healing will have to begin.


But ahead of that we have the small matter of the referendum itself.


With it, such a cliffhanger there was a frenzy of last-minute


campaigning, even though market day is upon us.


And the professionals always remind us, you can't fatten


A busy last day? Yes, it did have the feeling that this was bigger


than the annual -- average General Election, Harriet Harman, David


Cameron and Gordon Brown on the same platform and Boris Johnson crossing


the country by helicopter and aeroplane and tonight, the final


polls, the YouGov poll shows that remain are just ahead. Better news


for them with Comres, it shows they are ahead, 54-40 six. These


campaigns, the same polls and what is interesting is the feeling is the


same in both camps, they can see the pathway to victory but they are


nervous, in the Remain camp the reason they have confidence is they


are watching the risk factor, voters saying it could be risky to leave


and that drives the vote but what is making Remain nervous is what is


making Vote Leave happy, if you're that there is a disconnect the


Indian elite of the Labour Party in favour of remaining and the rest of


the Labour party grassroots throughout the rest of the country


but at least the Remain campaign have the Labour party machinery.


Vote Leave has no party machinery behind it and tomorrow is all about


getting that vote out. We will hear from you in a moment.


One in which the techniques of the "hard sell" have been pushed


And it's a campaign that's demonstrated


On each side, protagonists have proffered their view with more


certainty and strength than perhaps their case deserved.


In doing so they have hardened their argument but have


It seemed like sales talk rather than explanation.


I wonder whether the ambivalent among us might have been more


persuaded by someone more, well, ambivalent?


David Grossman has been been looking back at the campaign and at what has


But the role of the dice, risking the future. -- with the role of the


dice. All aboard for Britain remaining within the EU.


Looking back, we can definitely say it has brought the country together.


My daughter will not get into the school she needed. I am a Cornish


fishermen and you are not. You might not be very bright but that says...


Read that! You are being intimidated.


Any idea that this might be a uniting referendum,


we have sort of split into two countries, Remainia and Leavia.


There are a lot of social differences between us


and the referendum has got so close and is going right down to the wire,


that those differences have become even more


At times, it has been enough to drive you to drink.


A large quantity of real ale is one of the best ways to get through this


referendum campaign and Iraq amend that to everybody! The sweet taste


of remaining within the EU. What better, then, than bitter


to toast the end of this Although political types have been


utterly intoxicated by this referendum, how much of what has


been going on has actually cut Thank you, all of you, for


everything you are doing to support Vote Leave.


It is a reality of politics that generally, the folk who get


fired up and immerse themselves in the campaign,


how can we put this politely, are not always representative


The vast majority probably don't pay as much attention as people


Instead, the average person, the 50% of people less


engaged than on the street, isn't as engaged in the detail


of specific issues or specific policies.


Instead, they are interested in what we call the broad


narratives, the stories of what we tell ourselves and each


Is, for instance, Britain doing well being in the EU or not?


This has meant the campaigns have been hammering away at the same


I thought the Remain side was very clear.


Let's keep talking about the economy and let's scare the living pellets


out of voters who are undecided by making them think we're


going to have economic collapse, complete house, World Tour III,


goodness knows what else, plague and pestilence come Friday,


And I think it worked in the early stages.


Meanwhile, Vote Leave was serving up something just as bite


Is it not time to take back control? We want to take back control.


I don't think they really knew what they were doing in the early


stages, the early weeks were completely dominated.


It was all about the Remain campaign and reaction from the Leave campaign


and only in the last week or so, Leave have been the front foot in


trying to lead the debate. KV Racing might be the perfect referendum


metaphor. -- pig racing. But as a way of measuring public opinion, it


is well be less useful. For all of the match discussed difficulties, we


prefer to use posters. The polling organisation YouGov has asked voters


which events from the campaign they remember. Top of the list was Vote


Leave pulls my campaign that we said ?350 million per week to Brussels


with 42% remembering. Next was the news that net migration to the UK


had hit 333,000, with 37% recalling that. And thirdly, Vote Leave's


focus on Turkey and other candidate countries joining the EU on 36%. The


top three items were from the Brexit side. The top three items were leave


items, they were also more likely to be followed by people who support


Leave and because all of the items, there was more interest in people


following them if they were likely to Vote Leave and this corresponds


to the data that shows that people who say they will Vote Leave are


more likely to vote and more likely to be interested and pay attention.


That is interesting because there are two dimensions to this, the


issue of whether people will Vote Leave or Remain and the issue if


they choose to vote or not. Added is that combination of things that will


decide the result. The highest Remain argument was a Treasury


report that Brexit would spark a year-long recession, that was 35%.


Barack Obama saying the UK would be at the back of the queue for a new


trade deal with the US in the event of Brexit was weak called by 31% and


Jeremy Corbyn's warning about Brexit and the NHS was only remembered by


24%. That is not much more than one of the fake items, 21% said they


remembered Boris Johnson and David Cameron each calling there other and


liar during a live television debate. Despite the fact that that


never happened. Although everyone says they want calm, rational,


polite debate, secretly, campaigns are trying to generate angry


conflict. Using indisputable sadistic, for example, are scary


sound bite, generates their time on your preferred subject. The


campaigns have been trying to create disputes around their central points


so that people will argue over it. Salience is everything, can you move


your issue up the agenda? Remain has decided -- succeeded on that, watch


the opinion polls, when the salience is up, so is the opinion poll


rating. From tomorrow, the leaflets should subside and we would have to


pretend to be a night when there is not that the door but there is no


hiding from the fact that this referendum has divided the UK.


Whatever the result, healing the disputes this campaign has unleashed


will not be easy. David Grossman. We'll both sides be satisfied? Who


is a theme that unites both campaigns, it proves the old Adam


Ashe that the best late military plans rarely survive first contact


with the enemy and in the case of the Remain campaign David Cameron


and George Osborne were planning to rip free their success in the


Scottish referendum with Project Fear. They have focused on that but


there is a change away from metrics, if we leave the EU it will cost


thousands of pounds, nobody believed that, they moved to a narrative,


about the dangers of the here and now, we have not yet left but the


markets are already worried and in the case of the Leave campaign, what


they were focusing on was... They came very late to immigration? Yes,


with immigration one month ago, they focused on that, they had great


success and there were not planning on that, they were planning on a


broader message but one person has been consistent and that is Nigel


Farage and asked him how he felt today about Vote Leave taking some


of his ideas. The day Vote Leave moved on to


talking about an Australian-style points system I cheered so loudly


I nearly lost my voice. Because that was the day


that the Leave campaign Interesting. There is a campaign and


the aftermath and they are already thinking about the aftermath? I have


learned that in the aftermath, Downing Street are confident that


the Prime Minister will win this referendum. But there are


discussions under way about what will happen if he loses. He has been


consulting colleagues. We know he will make the statement in the early


hours of Friday morning, being very clear about his intention about how


he will run the Brexit negotiations if he survives and also about his


own position and there are divisions. Some people say he could


survive if he appointed a Brexit minister in charge of those


negotiations but other friends say no, and one said, Ken Clarke was


wrong to say he would be gone in 30 seconds. He will be gone in 60


seconds! You can hear almost the sound of people grappling with the


issues. For what it's worth, I suspect that,


despite all the confusion that has been sown, through the noise,


most people have grasped the basics. Migration: we're more likely


to limit European immigration The economy: the vast bulk


of economic, financial and business opinion thinks it would be


best to stay. Sovereignty: Brussels will have less


power over us if we leave, but that we'll have less power over


Brussels if we do. Frankly, the rest is


just detail anyway. The argument is over which of these


different issues is the one And the world divides


into those who know, and those who are are having to make


up their mind. None of us have ordered it, we could


all be swayed in either direction. Everybody I have talked to is


confused. Why can't economists do for and against without being


biased? We need 10,000 more doctors because we have 100,000 more people


coming in. The only way people have a future in the North is from the


EU. At the end of the day, to make a difference, everybody has to vote


for it and without that it doesn't make a difference.


Joining me now to reflect on standout moments


of the referendum campaign is Professor of History at


Sun political columnist Trevor Kavanagh.


Assistant editor of The Spectator Isabel Hardman.


And the Guardian's senior economics commentator, Aditya Chakrabortty.


Thank you for coming in. We have asked you to think about one telling


moment in the campaign that might be an interesting point. Trevor? For


me, the first evidence that this was game on and I suspect for David


Cameron was on February the 18th, the day of the Cabinet when he


unveiled his empty-handed referendum... The renegotiation.


Nothing to offer all of you. And Michael Gove immediately came out


that evenly with a sickly the Brexit manifesto, he rapidly moved out of


the traps and that took Downing Street by surprise and I think if it


had not been for that, Boris Johnson would not have joined the fray. He


rode a very powerful and eloquent speech? Yes. Next? What for you was


that moment? The financier Nicholas Massereene says you should always


listen to what people are talking about in the local gym, this man


came over to me, and said, have you seen the leaflet about David


Cameron? Yes, it is doormat. That costs ?350 million. I am not so sure


about that! And then he said, if we vote to leave, I do not think


Cameron will accept that. He will keep Austin and will go back to


Brussels and we negotiate. And I thought, is the? Where has he got


that from? I look at the opinion polls and they showed that the


majority of British people agreed, even if he voted no, we want to


leave, but don't trust the governing class to accept that.


So the big point... What you have seen played out is this lingering


and quite serious distrust of the governing class, Labour or Tory,


from across the country. What has been the standout moment for you? It


was a week ago, Nigel Farage's poster from the anti-immigration


poster. This was the moment of truth, or rather the moment of


untruths because it was the most shameless attempt to misrepresent


the issue of immigration, distorting completely what is at stake in this


referendum. As it coincided with the murder of Jo Cox, it seems to me


like a really terrifying reminder that the ghost of Enoch Powell still


stalks the politics of this nation simultaneously, anti-immigration and


anti-Europe and this was the rivers of blood moment. I find it


terrifying and a great many people felt the same weight and it stopped


what seemed like momentum in the -- of Lever in its tracks.


I think the distrust factor is extremely acute and there was a poll


showing how much it is reflected against, of all people, the pie


Minister and the Chancellor. There are accounts and forecasts on the


effect on the economy are disbelieved totally by the


electorate -- the Prime Minister. What about the point that there is a


politics of hate? I wonder if you accept that this has been a bit more


brutal than we have been used to? Much more so and from both sides but


predominantly on the Remain camp and Amber Rudd's Tare in the debate


against Boris Johnson was really quite ugly -- Thai raid.


What Farrag is arguing with the post is that we have a crisis with asylum


seekers from Syria and the absolutely don't. All of this talk


of taking control is a complete misrepresentation of the immigration


issue. We will have a discussion later. Isabel is sitting quietly and


patiently. Your moment? George Osborne's exit budget, not into and


the impact it would have had on but the long-term impact on the


Conservative Party. It was such a ludicrous thing to produce and the


thing that amused me the most was that he was saying he would have to


cut disability benefits when he had a month ago triggered the


resignation of a Cabinet member within the EU for doing just that.


There were so many Conservative MPs who said they would vote against it


it went far beyond the usual malcontents who are always


complaining about Cameron and Osborne. These were sensible Tory


MPs who in their heart apart just want to get over the referendum. And


the IFS and others all gain credibility by saying it is not


necessarily... Was this part of that salient thing we heard about? You


say something that is stupid in order to get the conversation back


onto the thing you talk about rather than what they are talking about?


And is it veered back to immigration, the Remain campaign


warnings have become more and more ludicrous. We had Donald Tusk


warning about the end of Western civilisation and I started to think


there was a bit of panic in the Remain ranks. We will hear from you


in a bit later. Each side in the campaign has


pushed its most popular figures to the fore,


with the result that it's often seemed as though it's less


of a contest between Leave and Remain, and more


of a personal battle between Boris Johnson and David


Cameron. Their rivalry has history,


it's fair to say. And the film-maker Michael Cockerell


has been looking at the relationship between the two men,


and how that has influenced this David Cameron admires


Boris Johnson's charisma and he desperately wanted BoJo


on his side in the But Johnson wouldn't


make up his mind. In February he drove to his bolthole


in Oxfordshire, having said he was genuinely conflicted


on whether or not to go for Brexit and was veering all over the place


like a supermarket trolley. Johnson was being offered a top


Cabinet job by Cameron if he joined He decided he would use his weekly


Daily Telegraph column, for which he is paid a quarter


of a million a year, I've been told by someone


in a position to know that you wrote two articles for the Daily Telegraph


because you knew you had to have an article in


the Daily Telegraph on the Monday. One was for staying in,


the other was for getting out. And the person who told me this said


the one for staying I don't know what your conceivable


sources for that information may be, but I can tell you, seriously,


I decided that it was much This person said that your arguments


for staying in were stronger And I will tell you what the second


article said. What it said was that, actually,


irrespective of my objections to the way the EU was going,


in order to support my party and the Prime Minister,


it would be better to stay in. And I thought, in the end,


that wasn't a good enough reason. Now let me say about Boris,


I have huge respect for Boris as a politician, he is a great


friend of mine, he is I think he has got a lot to give


to the Conservative Party, I think he's got a lot


to give to this country. But on this issue I think he's got


it wrong and I think he's reached So we're going to have,


I hope, a very reasonable, It is the latest contest


in the relationship between the two men who had been friends and rivals


for nearly 40 years. They had first met at Eton


where Johnson was a scholarship boy who was two years older


than the stockbroker's son known I'm fairly certain someone said


to me once, that's Cameron Mi, Johnson's relationship


with Cameron Minor would be an up and down affair


throughout their lives. At Eton it was Johnson


who became the school star. He was the top player in the team


for the Wall Game. He was also a member of the elite


group which could wear its own fancy waistcoats and he was made


captain of the school. The fact that Cameron did not


achieve either honour is something that he is often privately


reminded of by Johnson. When the two went on to Oxford,


they were elected members And they appeared together


in the same photograph which they both wish could be


airbrushed out of history. Johnson, who believes


he is cleverer than Cameron, left Oxford with a second


in classics and was disappointed to learn that David Cameron got


a first in politics, Cameron's ambition, like Johnson's,


was to become Prime Minister. He's very clever, he's totally


devoted to politics. Indeed, when he was very young,


he was nicknamed the Prime Minister because he always took


politics very seriously, The two men were elected Tory MPs


for safe seats in The Cotswolds in 2001 and were fast rising up


the greasy pole. Until Boris was sacked


from the shadow front bench for lying about a love


affair to the then party At the time, David Cameron MP was


one of the leader's chief advisers. Did you think it was a good idea


for Michael Howard I think, I mean, that's obviously


one for him rather than for me. But I think there's a very difficult


issue when you say one thing publicly and then you have to say


something else publicly, even though Boris is a very close friend


of mine, a colleague and, you know, it was obviously a very tough


time for him as well. After Cameron was elected Tory


leader, he persuaded a reluctant Johnson suspected it was a ploy


by Cameron to remove This is an excellent opportunity


for London to have someone who I think you can unite Londoners,


can inspire Londoners and can give leadership to what is one


of the greatest cities in the world. It is greatest city in the world,


London is the greatest Sorry, I don't want to interrupt


you. It's a fantastic chance to change


the government of London and to institute a new type


and style of administration # He flies through the air


with the greatest of ease # A daring young man


on his flying trapeze #. The high point of Johnson's time


as mayor was a zip wire trip If any other politician anywhere


in the world got stuck on a zip wire For Boris it would be


an absolute triumph! The current In-Out referendum


campaign is a no holds barred battle which could see the Prime Minister


losing his crown jewels Johnson had kept everyone guessing


for months about which side I thought I'd better come


out and say something because I could see you were all


in a great mass here. The last thing I wanted was to go


against David Cameron But after a great deal of heartache,


I don't think there's I will be advocating Vote Leave,


or whatever the team is called. That is basically it,


because I want a better deal Is this a calculated,


cynical play for the leadership On the contrary, I think that really


and truly it would be the best thing possible for the people


who are listening to this debate, wondering genuinely


in their mind which way to go. Johnson had only given Cameron five


minutes' warning for this I am human so obviously


I was disappointed, I would be inhuman not to be sad


and disappointed that Boris has Privately, the word from number ten


was that the PM was incandescent that Boris had decided to out


himself as an Outer. There is to be a leadership election


in the Conservative Party before the next election


because the Prime Minister has already said that he's not


going to stand down and it is said, I'm told,


that Boris intends to stand in that


leadership election. And it is also further held that


you couldn't lead the Tory party But I believe that some of those


factors may have contributed to Boris's damascian


conversion to the Out cause. And he told me he wasn't an Outer,


he told a lot of other So I regret very much


that he did it. In the Commons, the Prime Minister


couldn't resist a subtle dig Mr Speaker, I am not


standing for re-election. I have no other agenda,


I have no other agenda I don't want this to become a sort


of Tory psychodrama And I don't want too many blue


on blue conflicts. I want to prove the breadth


of the campaign. Cameron launched the Remain campaign


in the impressive establishment Isolationism has never


served this country well. Whenever we turn our back on Europe,


sooner or later The rows of white headstones


in lovingly-tended Commonwealth war cemeteries stand as silent testament


to the price that this country has paid to help restore peace


and order in Europe. Cameron's speech was immediately


interpreted by much of the press, and by Boris Johnson,


as what they dubbed Project Fear, that leaving Europe could


threaten a third World War. I think all this talk


of World War Three and bubonic Johnson made a point of contrasting


the Leave campaign with the splendour of Cameron


and the Remainers. This is a struggle of the little


platoons against the big battalions. And they have the CBI and Goldman


Sachs and Peter Mandelson. And then, last Friday,


we got the definitive He finally revealed what Brexit


looks like, and I don't mean the sight of his rear climbing up


into that driver's cab. To strengthen the Remain cause,


Cameron had enlisted the most powerful man in the world to put


the case against Brexit. Johnson issued a pre-emptive strike,


accusing Obama of being anti-British Obama delivered a magisterial rebuke


and Boris was in the doghouse. I thought Boris got that wrong


and I thought it was a terrific misjudgement of the proper


thing to say. And I think it kind of showed Boris


not in a good light. Alas, poor Boris, I knew him,


a fellow of infinite jest. David Cameron seemed to be on a roll


as he played up the economic cost What do you think of the way


that David Cameron has This whole idea that there will be


a plague of frogs and the death of the first-born if we vote


to leave when, a week before the renegotiation is completed,


the Prime Minister intimated that he might leave the Leave


campaign, you can't have World War Three or the global


Brexit recession? Johnson now tried a bit


of Project Fear of his own. He told the Telegraph


that the Brussels bureaucrats were trying to unify Europe


as Hitler had done before them. I thought it was absolutely bloody


awful, stupid thing to say, it really was, and I have no doubt


Boris regrets it. # Who do you think you are kidding


Mr Hitler # If you think we're


on the run #. In a magazine interview,


Cameron said, "Boris and I are still friends,


just not such good friends." Johnson arrives for the ITV debate


accompanied by two fellow Leave MPs, They will be up against


the Remainers, Nicola Sturgeon, the Scots Nat leader,


Labour's Angela Eagle and Amber Rudd,


the Cabinet Minister. She had apparently been briefed


by Downing Street to target her fellow Tory,


Boris Johnson, personally. You need to look at the numbers,


although I fear the only number Boris is interested in is the one


that says number ten. But the fact is, he is the life


and soul of the party but he's not the man you want driving you home


at the end of the evening. Straight after Amber Rudd's attack


on Johnson, David Cameron tweets that Amber Rudd is the star


of the programme. I don't think I would want Boris


to drive me anywhere actually! I don't think she meant


anything particularly sinister. I wasn't quite sure whether this


was trying to suggest that Boris was a drunk driver or that he


was not safe in taxis. Either way, it was deeply


undignified and a potentially lewd comment for a Cabinet


Minister to make. What did Johnson make


about Amber Rudd's charge that he was only interested


in getting to number ten? I really just repeat


what I have said. I think people genuinely


want to focus on the issues. Yes, of course people


will want to distract into all sorts of sideshows but the crucial thing


is, what are the facts The immigration issue has been


the trump card played Johnson and Michael Gove send


an open letter to the Prime Minister which accuses him of corroding


public trust A Leave campaign resorting to total


untruths to con people It is irresponsible, it is wrong,


and it is time that the Leave campaign was called out


on the nonsense that Don't make this choice on the basis


of false information. Let me take on this issue absolutely


directly because I am I am the proud descendant


of Turkish immigrants. And let me stun you perhaps


by saying I will go further, I'm not only pro-immigration,


I'm pro-immigrants and I am in favour of an amnesty for illegal


immigrants who have been The bitter exchanges


between the Prime Minister and the leading contender


for his crown exemplify a campaign widely seen as the most divisive


and duplicitous of modern times. And the greatest irony could be


that, after the referendum results come in, neither man will end up


with the job they have each fought for since


they were at school together. Michael cockerel on the big


divisions at the top of the Conservative party.


The key European issues have sometimes felt like a surface row


The referendum is like a couple arguing over who should walk


the dog, when the tension between them is really about one


We've seen divisions between those who think the world is working


Between London and other parts of the country, between


younger progressives and older conservatives.


All of these are fuzzy divides, but our politics has been


stretched and contorted in the weirdest of ways.


It's not obvious the party system can take the strain.


I'm back with my panel of Niall Ferguson,


Trevor Kavanagh, Isabel Hardman and Aditya Chakrabotty.


Better start on the Conservative party. I do not know if this can be


put back together or if there is a vague Remain win or Brexit. It is


more difficult in the event of Remain because you have a lot of


Conservative MPs who will feel betrayed and so the government


machine was harnessed against them in the campaign, particularly given


David Cameron walked into Downing Street this week and started


gesticulating at the door behind him during the period when you are not


supposed to use government buildings and gave a statement about why


Britain should vote to remain. These things will come to the surface if


there is a Remain vote and it will be difficult for David Cameron to


reunite the party, not just in terms of people not staging a coup against


him but in terms of getting any domestic reforms through the Commons


with a tiny majority. If there is a Brexit when, you are assuming he


will go? Has been post-conflict planning to stop him from going


immediately so that he can steer the country through a very difficult


time. He will have to work hard at going back on some of the warnings


he has made during the campaign, he said Brexit would put a warm under


the economy! Trevor, how do you think the Conservative party will


look after this? They are in a lot of trouble, I cannot see how they


can put the genie back in the bottle because one thing that is not seen


by outsiders is on the he has a disciplined Commons party, many of


those fighting for Remain are actually four Brexit themselves, and


you will see a lot of peerages and knighthoods which are suddenly


popping out as a reward to these people and a lot of people is --


another thing is this is Europe as well, this dissatisfaction with the


EU is spread across the EU and what is happening in Britain is really an


antagonism towards Brussels which is by proxy the view which is


resonating across Europe, it is not over. Let us go back to the man you


met in the gym, this is the schism, in the country as opposed to the


Conservative party, it has highlighted... If use depth back


from the hot blue on blue action, you have a governing class that


cannot govern very well, the first referendum on Europe since Harold


Wilson, Wilson winning that by a thumping majority, Harold Wilson


would never ask a question to which he was not confident on the answer


he would get and the day after, I looked at how my paper reported


this, the front page said Eu euphoria, imagine either of those


headlines emerging on Friday or Saturday. If you go by the polls,


you have a narrow Remain factory in which one side might lose but nobody


wins. And what I can see, if you go out and go to places looking like


they might vote for Leave, they hate the lot of them, if you ask, why do


you want to leave? Things cannot get worse. But you will not in a fit if


you leave. We have had enough. Tony Blair, Cameron, Jeremy Corbyn, what


you see in the East of England and the Northeast and Wales, essentially


a sense that they have tuned out the entire political class. This


proposed insurrection? A very solemn mutiny. This is happening all over


the world, that has not been a star Trek about the 1970s, Wilson ran the


more effective campaign in a country that was falling apart when is what


is happening at the moment is in fact revolt of rising expectation.


One of the reasons there is an immigration issue is the economy has


been doing so well, it has been attracting more people not only from


the EU but the rest of the world. And discouraging people from


leaving, which is white net migration has gone up so part of the


issue is, I agree, a populist backlash against the political elite


but we must recognise that in some measure, David Cameron is a victim


of his own success. The success of the economy and creating jobs, there


is very low -- unemployment in the country, despite the warnings... The


public are listening to and saying, you are one of them and you don't


get it. His net migration target has hugely angry voters because the


Conservatives have been unable to articulate how they can meet this


and have a thriller last parliament they talked about EU reform and


freedom of movement and they could not get that and they are stuck with


this target that they keep sticking to purely to be able to stick to the


promises, which is something politicians are obsessed with. I


thought the referendum is a mistake but in the immigration debate it


seems that we have lost sight of the fact that the majority of people


came to this country in the last two years and were not from the EU,


asylum seekers are tiny percentage of the people that come to this


country, we have total control over this. This is a debate about the EU.


Membership of the EU. Most of the migrants come here from outside the


EU. The public ride in broad sense to feel like we have been ripped


off? People think they have been told things will work for us but not


here? The vast majority of the working classes, a skilled and


semiskilled and unskilled, feel no benefit whatsoever from the


recovery. Our economy might well be the best in Europe and one of the


best in the world but the recovery is incredibly fragile, we still have


a huge national debt and the national deficit is growing, not


shrinking. If mass immigration is so good for the economy, why are people


struggling for jobs in this country in certain areas? What is


interesting is Trevor from the sun is quite close to where you are in


the Guardian although you focus on the British elite and you focus on


the EU elite. This referendum is not one that anyone particularly wanted


to have, the question is not one the voters are opposing, if you talk


about the Lisbon Treaty or the European Central Bank, they say, why


have no wages not gone up and when can make it scuttled the housing


ladder? They have their own answers and they try to squeeze them into


this binary of in or out. I completely agree with Isabel about


immigration, it has been wave after wave of broken promises, everything


from Iraq to the boom were meant to be going through to what was meant


to replace the industrialisation in places like the Northeast and Wales.


Let us finish on Labour, he started on the Conservatives. In many


respects, this is turning out to be a very big problem for Labour.


Labour is the weak link. It is the leadership of Jeremy Corbyn that is


a problem. Really, this referendum is going to the wire because of


Jeremy Corbyn and he is a disastrous leader who cannot get his supporters


are to support Remain. At the start of the campaign Labour MPs were


worried about the lack of enthusiasm for turning photo site but I was


talking to some of the last few weeks who said you don't necessarily


want voters to come out because they will Vote Leave, we would rather


they stayed in bed and that is not just Jeremy Corbyn. This is an


institutional Labour problem. That they have not addressed for years


and some of them are starting to worry this could be the party's


Scottish problem, they were warned about a problem with the


nationalists and they never really addressed it. They are doing the


same immigration. Suddenly, something happens that they cannot


control which is a referendum in which they are on the wrong side.


You are looking at the kind of slowed death of Labour, South Wales,


the Northeast. But you also looking at a disintegration of the liberal


mainstream and both parties because represents that but also the wing of


the Dutch are right of Labour MPs and there is no currency in being a


mainstream centrist politician, all the hot money goes to the polls of


the political debate. Are the centrist ones in the Tory party and


Labour Party, might they say we have got a lot of common with each other?


We disagree on everything expect the simple fact is, the question of


immigration has affected Labour voters in a way in which has been


undeniable except in the Labour Party. We need to leave it there.


Well, that is it from us for tonight, and from


We are not here tomorrow - but we will all be watching


the results programme on BBC One which starts at 9.55pm.


Emily will be there, as well as David Dimbleby.


I will be back in this chair on Friday,


Thunderstorms have already bought some intense downpours across parts


of Sussex and Kent this evenly and an Amber Warning in force from the


edge that Office means there is potential for further disruptive


downpours in


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