22/06/2016 Newsnight

I will go to Parliament and propose that the British people decide our

future in Europe through a referendum on Thursday the 23rd of

June. The choice is in your hands. And it's been a fraught fight

to the bitter last day. We'll look back at the campaign

and at what has cut through. Britain's not just deciding

on Europe, it's deciding Michael Cockerell has been looking

back at their history. We'll discuss the divisions that

have been exposed in the run-up And ask how our political parties

and the country will cope with the aftermath.

On Friday the healing will have to begin.

But ahead of that we have the small matter of the referendum itself.

With it, such a cliffhanger there was a frenzy of last-minute

campaigning, even though market day is upon us.

And the professionals always remind us, you can't fatten

A busy last day? Yes, it did have the feeling that this was bigger

than the annual -- average General Election, Harriet Harman, David

Cameron and Gordon Brown on the same platform and Boris Johnson crossing

the country by helicopter and aeroplane and tonight, the final

polls, the YouGov poll shows that remain are just ahead. Better news

for them with Comres, it shows they are ahead, 54-40 six. These

campaigns, the same polls and what is interesting is the feeling is the

same in both camps, they can see the pathway to victory but they are

nervous, in the Remain camp the reason they have confidence is they

are watching the risk factor, voters saying it could be risky to leave

and that drives the vote but what is making Remain nervous is what is

making Vote Leave happy, if you're that there is a disconnect the

Indian elite of the Labour Party in favour of remaining and the rest of

the Labour party grassroots throughout the rest of the country

but at least the Remain campaign have the Labour party machinery.

Vote Leave has no party machinery behind it and tomorrow is all about

getting that vote out. We will hear from you in a moment.

One in which the techniques of the "hard sell" have been pushed

And it's a campaign that's demonstrated

On each side, protagonists have proffered their view with more

certainty and strength than perhaps their case deserved.

In doing so they have hardened their argument but have

It seemed like sales talk rather than explanation.

I wonder whether the ambivalent among us might have been more

persuaded by someone more, well, ambivalent?

David Grossman has been been looking back at the campaign and at what has

But the role of the dice, risking the future. -- with the role of the

dice. All aboard for Britain remaining within the EU.

Looking back, we can definitely say it has brought the country together.

My daughter will not get into the school she needed. I am a Cornish

fishermen and you are not. You might not be very bright but that says...

Read that! You are being intimidated.

Any idea that this might be a uniting referendum,

we have sort of split into two countries, Remainia and Leavia.

There are a lot of social differences between us

and the referendum has got so close and is going right down to the wire,

that those differences have become even more

At times, it has been enough to drive you to drink.

A large quantity of real ale is one of the best ways to get through this

referendum campaign and Iraq amend that to everybody! The sweet taste

of remaining within the EU. What better, then, than bitter

to toast the end of this Although political types have been

utterly intoxicated by this referendum, how much of what has

been going on has actually cut Thank you, all of you, for

everything you are doing to support Vote Leave.

It is a reality of politics that generally, the folk who get

fired up and immerse themselves in the campaign,

how can we put this politely, are not always representative

The vast majority probably don't pay as much attention as people

Instead, the average person, the 50% of people less

engaged than on the street, isn't as engaged in the detail

of specific issues or specific policies.

Instead, they are interested in what we call the broad

narratives, the stories of what we tell ourselves and each

Is, for instance, Britain doing well being in the EU or not?

This has meant the campaigns have been hammering away at the same

I thought the Remain side was very clear.

Let's keep talking about the economy and let's scare the living pellets

out of voters who are undecided by making them think we're

going to have economic collapse, complete house, World Tour III,

goodness knows what else, plague and pestilence come Friday,

And I think it worked in the early stages.

Meanwhile, Vote Leave was serving up something just as bite

Is it not time to take back control? We want to take back control.

I don't think they really knew what they were doing in the early

stages, the early weeks were completely dominated.

It was all about the Remain campaign and reaction from the Leave campaign

and only in the last week or so, Leave have been the front foot in

trying to lead the debate. KV Racing might be the perfect referendum

metaphor. -- pig racing. But as a way of measuring public opinion, it

is well be less useful. For all of the match discussed difficulties, we

prefer to use posters. The polling organisation YouGov has asked voters

which events from the campaign they remember. Top of the list was Vote

Leave pulls my campaign that we said ?350 million per week to Brussels

with 42% remembering. Next was the news that net migration to the UK

had hit 333,000, with 37% recalling that. And thirdly, Vote Leave's

focus on Turkey and other candidate countries joining the EU on 36%. The

top three items were from the Brexit side. The top three items were leave

items, they were also more likely to be followed by people who support

Leave and because all of the items, there was more interest in people

following them if they were likely to Vote Leave and this corresponds

to the data that shows that people who say they will Vote Leave are

more likely to vote and more likely to be interested and pay attention.

That is interesting because there are two dimensions to this, the

issue of whether people will Vote Leave or Remain and the issue if

they choose to vote or not. Added is that combination of things that will

decide the result. The highest Remain argument was a Treasury

report that Brexit would spark a year-long recession, that was 35%.

Barack Obama saying the UK would be at the back of the queue for a new

trade deal with the US in the event of Brexit was weak called by 31% and

Jeremy Corbyn's warning about Brexit and the NHS was only remembered by

24%. That is not much more than one of the fake items, 21% said they

remembered Boris Johnson and David Cameron each calling there other and

liar during a live television debate. Despite the fact that that

never happened. Although everyone says they want calm, rational,

polite debate, secretly, campaigns are trying to generate angry

conflict. Using indisputable sadistic, for example, are scary

sound bite, generates their time on your preferred subject. The

campaigns have been trying to create disputes around their central points

so that people will argue over it. Salience is everything, can you move

your issue up the agenda? Remain has decided -- succeeded on that, watch

the opinion polls, when the salience is up, so is the opinion poll

rating. From tomorrow, the leaflets should subside and we would have to

pretend to be a night when there is not that the door but there is no

hiding from the fact that this referendum has divided the UK.

Whatever the result, healing the disputes this campaign has unleashed

will not be easy. David Grossman. We'll both sides be satisfied? Who

is a theme that unites both campaigns, it proves the old Adam

Ashe that the best late military plans rarely survive first contact

with the enemy and in the case of the Remain campaign David Cameron

and George Osborne were planning to rip free their success in the

Scottish referendum with Project Fear. They have focused on that but

there is a change away from metrics, if we leave the EU it will cost

thousands of pounds, nobody believed that, they moved to a narrative,

about the dangers of the here and now, we have not yet left but the

markets are already worried and in the case of the Leave campaign, what

they were focusing on was... They came very late to immigration? Yes,

with immigration one month ago, they focused on that, they had great

success and there were not planning on that, they were planning on a

broader message but one person has been consistent and that is Nigel

Farage and asked him how he felt today about Vote Leave taking some

of his ideas. The day Vote Leave moved on to

talking about an Australian-style points system I cheered so loudly

I nearly lost my voice. Because that was the day

that the Leave campaign Interesting. There is a campaign and

the aftermath and they are already thinking about the aftermath? I have

learned that in the aftermath, Downing Street are confident that

the Prime Minister will win this referendum. But there are

discussions under way about what will happen if he loses. He has been

consulting colleagues. We know he will make the statement in the early

hours of Friday morning, being very clear about his intention about how

he will run the Brexit negotiations if he survives and also about his

own position and there are divisions. Some people say he could

survive if he appointed a Brexit minister in charge of those

negotiations but other friends say no, and one said, Ken Clarke was

wrong to say he would be gone in 30 seconds. He will be gone in 60

seconds! You can hear almost the sound of people grappling with the

issues. For what it's worth, I suspect that,

despite all the confusion that has been sown, through the noise,

most people have grasped the basics. Migration: we're more likely

to limit European immigration The economy: the vast bulk

of economic, financial and business opinion thinks it would be

best to stay. Sovereignty: Brussels will have less

power over us if we leave, but that we'll have less power over

Brussels if we do. Frankly, the rest is

just detail anyway. The argument is over which of these

different issues is the one And the world divides

into those who know, and those who are are having to make

up their mind. None of us have ordered it, we could

all be swayed in either direction. Everybody I have talked to is

confused. Why can't economists do for and against without being

biased? We need 10,000 more doctors because we have 100,000 more people

coming in. The only way people have a future in the North is from the

EU. At the end of the day, to make a difference, everybody has to vote

for it and without that it doesn't make a difference.

Joining me now to reflect on standout moments

of the referendum campaign is Professor of History at

Sun political columnist Trevor Kavanagh.

Assistant editor of The Spectator Isabel Hardman.

And the Guardian's senior economics commentator, Aditya Chakrabortty.

Thank you for coming in. We have asked you to think about one telling

moment in the campaign that might be an interesting point. Trevor? For

me, the first evidence that this was game on and I suspect for David

Cameron was on February the 18th, the day of the Cabinet when he

unveiled his empty-handed referendum... The renegotiation.

Nothing to offer all of you. And Michael Gove immediately came out

that evenly with a sickly the Brexit manifesto, he rapidly moved out of

the traps and that took Downing Street by surprise and I think if it

had not been for that, Boris Johnson would not have joined the fray. He

rode a very powerful and eloquent speech? Yes. Next? What for you was

that moment? The financier Nicholas Massereene says you should always

listen to what people are talking about in the local gym, this man

came over to me, and said, have you seen the leaflet about David

Cameron? Yes, it is doormat. That costs ?350 million. I am not so sure

about that! And then he said, if we vote to leave, I do not think

Cameron will accept that. He will keep Austin and will go back to

Brussels and we negotiate. And I thought, is the? Where has he got

that from? I look at the opinion polls and they showed that the

majority of British people agreed, even if he voted no, we want to

leave, but don't trust the governing class to accept that.

So the big point... What you have seen played out is this lingering

and quite serious distrust of the governing class, Labour or Tory,

from across the country. What has been the standout moment for you? It

was a week ago, Nigel Farage's poster from the anti-immigration

poster. This was the moment of truth, or rather the moment of

untruths because it was the most shameless attempt to misrepresent

the issue of immigration, distorting completely what is at stake in this

referendum. As it coincided with the murder of Jo Cox, it seems to me

like a really terrifying reminder that the ghost of Enoch Powell still

stalks the politics of this nation simultaneously, anti-immigration and

anti-Europe and this was the rivers of blood moment. I find it

terrifying and a great many people felt the same weight and it stopped

what seemed like momentum in the -- of Lever in its tracks.

I think the distrust factor is extremely acute and there was a poll

showing how much it is reflected against, of all people, the pie

Minister and the Chancellor. There are accounts and forecasts on the

effect on the economy are disbelieved totally by the

electorate -- the Prime Minister. What about the point that there is a

politics of hate? I wonder if you accept that this has been a bit more

brutal than we have been used to? Much more so and from both sides but

predominantly on the Remain camp and Amber Rudd's Tare in the debate

against Boris Johnson was really quite ugly -- Thai raid.

What Farrag is arguing with the post is that we have a crisis with asylum

seekers from Syria and the absolutely don't. All of this talk

of taking control is a complete misrepresentation of the immigration

issue. We will have a discussion later. Isabel is sitting quietly and

patiently. Your moment? George Osborne's exit budget, not into and

the impact it would have had on but the long-term impact on the

Conservative Party. It was such a ludicrous thing to produce and the

thing that amused me the most was that he was saying he would have to

cut disability benefits when he had a month ago triggered the

resignation of a Cabinet member within the EU for doing just that.

There were so many Conservative MPs who said they would vote against it

it went far beyond the usual malcontents who are always

complaining about Cameron and Osborne. These were sensible Tory

MPs who in their heart apart just want to get over the referendum. And

the IFS and others all gain credibility by saying it is not

necessarily... Was this part of that salient thing we heard about? You

say something that is stupid in order to get the conversation back

onto the thing you talk about rather than what they are talking about?

And is it veered back to immigration, the Remain campaign

warnings have become more and more ludicrous. We had Donald Tusk

warning about the end of Western civilisation and I started to think

there was a bit of panic in the Remain ranks. We will hear from you

in a bit later. Each side in the campaign has

pushed its most popular figures to the fore,

with the result that it's often seemed as though it's less

of a contest between Leave and Remain, and more

of a personal battle between Boris Johnson and David

Cameron. Their rivalry has history,

it's fair to say. And the film-maker Michael Cockerell

has been looking at the relationship between the two men,

and how that has influenced this David Cameron admires

Boris Johnson's charisma and he desperately wanted BoJo

on his side in the But Johnson wouldn't

make up his mind. In February he drove to his bolthole

in Oxfordshire, having said he was genuinely conflicted

on whether or not to go for Brexit and was veering all over the place

like a supermarket trolley. Johnson was being offered a top

Cabinet job by Cameron if he joined He decided he would use his weekly

Daily Telegraph column, for which he is paid a quarter

of a million a year, I've been told by someone

in a position to know that you wrote two articles for the Daily Telegraph

because you knew you had to have an article in

the Daily Telegraph on the Monday. One was for staying in,

the other was for getting out. And the person who told me this said

the one for staying I don't know what your conceivable

sources for that information may be, but I can tell you, seriously,

I decided that it was much This person said that your arguments

for staying in were stronger And I will tell you what the second

article said. What it said was that, actually,

irrespective of my objections to the way the EU was going,

in order to support my party and the Prime Minister,

it would be better to stay in. And I thought, in the end,

that wasn't a good enough reason. Now let me say about Boris,

I have huge respect for Boris as a politician, he is a great

friend of mine, he is I think he has got a lot to give

to the Conservative Party, I think he's got a lot

to give to this country. But on this issue I think he's got

it wrong and I think he's reached So we're going to have,

I hope, a very reasonable, It is the latest contest

in the relationship between the two men who had been friends and rivals

for nearly 40 years. They had first met at Eton

where Johnson was a scholarship boy who was two years older

than the stockbroker's son known I'm fairly certain someone said

to me once, that's Cameron Mi, Johnson's relationship

with Cameron Minor would be an up and down affair

throughout their lives. At Eton it was Johnson

who became the school star. He was the top player in the team

for the Wall Game. He was also a member of the elite

group which could wear its own fancy waistcoats and he was made

captain of the school. The fact that Cameron did not

achieve either honour is something that he is often privately

reminded of by Johnson. When the two went on to Oxford,

they were elected members And they appeared together

in the same photograph which they both wish could be

airbrushed out of history. Johnson, who believes

he is cleverer than Cameron, left Oxford with a second

in classics and was disappointed to learn that David Cameron got

a first in politics, Cameron's ambition, like Johnson's,

was to become Prime Minister. He's very clever, he's totally

devoted to politics. Indeed, when he was very young,

he was nicknamed the Prime Minister because he always took

politics very seriously, The two men were elected Tory MPs

for safe seats in The Cotswolds in 2001 and were fast rising up

the greasy pole. Until Boris was sacked

from the shadow front bench for lying about a love

affair to the then party At the time, David Cameron MP was

one of the leader's chief advisers. Did you think it was a good idea

for Michael Howard I think, I mean, that's obviously

one for him rather than for me. But I think there's a very difficult

issue when you say one thing publicly and then you have to say

something else publicly, even though Boris is a very close friend

of mine, a colleague and, you know, it was obviously a very tough

time for him as well. After Cameron was elected Tory

leader, he persuaded a reluctant Johnson suspected it was a ploy

by Cameron to remove This is an excellent opportunity

for London to have someone who I think you can unite Londoners,

can inspire Londoners and can give leadership to what is one

of the greatest cities in the world. It is greatest city in the world,

London is the greatest Sorry, I don't want to interrupt

you. It's a fantastic chance to change

the government of London and to institute a new type

and style of administration # He flies through the air

with the greatest of ease # A daring young man

on his flying trapeze #. The high point of Johnson's time

as mayor was a zip wire trip If any other politician anywhere

in the world got stuck on a zip wire For Boris it would be

an absolute triumph! The current In-Out referendum

campaign is a no holds barred battle which could see the Prime Minister

losing his crown jewels Johnson had kept everyone guessing

for months about which side I thought I'd better come

out and say something because I could see you were all

in a great mass here. The last thing I wanted was to go

against David Cameron But after a great deal of heartache,

I don't think there's I will be advocating Vote Leave,

or whatever the team is called. That is basically it,

because I want a better deal Is this a calculated,

cynical play for the leadership On the contrary, I think that really

and truly it would be the best thing possible for the people

who are listening to this debate, wondering genuinely

in their mind which way to go. Johnson had only given Cameron five

minutes' warning for this I am human so obviously

I was disappointed, I would be inhuman not to be sad

and disappointed that Boris has Privately, the word from number ten

was that the PM was incandescent that Boris had decided to out

himself as an Outer. There is to be a leadership election

in the Conservative Party before the next election

because the Prime Minister has already said that he's not

going to stand down and it is said, I'm told,

that Boris intends to stand in that

leadership election. And it is also further held that

you couldn't lead the Tory party But I believe that some of those

factors may have contributed to Boris's damascian

conversion to the Out cause. And he told me he wasn't an Outer,

he told a lot of other So I regret very much

that he did it. In the Commons, the Prime Minister

couldn't resist a subtle dig Mr Speaker, I am not

standing for re-election. I have no other agenda,

I have no other agenda I don't want this to become a sort

of Tory psychodrama And I don't want too many blue

on blue conflicts. I want to prove the breadth

of the campaign. Cameron launched the Remain campaign

in the impressive establishment Isolationism has never

served this country well. Whenever we turn our back on Europe,

sooner or later The rows of white headstones

in lovingly-tended Commonwealth war cemeteries stand as silent testament

to the price that this country has paid to help restore peace

and order in Europe. Cameron's speech was immediately

interpreted by much of the press, and by Boris Johnson,

as what they dubbed Project Fear, that leaving Europe could

threaten a third World War. I think all this talk

of World War Three and bubonic Johnson made a point of contrasting

the Leave campaign with the splendour of Cameron

and the Remainers. This is a struggle of the little

platoons against the big battalions. And they have the CBI and Goldman

Sachs and Peter Mandelson. And then, last Friday,

we got the definitive He finally revealed what Brexit

looks like, and I don't mean the sight of his rear climbing up

into that driver's cab. To strengthen the Remain cause,

Cameron had enlisted the most powerful man in the world to put

the case against Brexit. Johnson issued a pre-emptive strike,

accusing Obama of being anti-British Obama delivered a magisterial rebuke

and Boris was in the doghouse. I thought Boris got that wrong

and I thought it was a terrific misjudgement of the proper

thing to say. And I think it kind of showed Boris

not in a good light. Alas, poor Boris, I knew him,

a fellow of infinite jest. David Cameron seemed to be on a roll

as he played up the economic cost What do you think of the way

that David Cameron has This whole idea that there will be

a plague of frogs and the death of the first-born if we vote

to leave when, a week before the renegotiation is completed,

the Prime Minister intimated that he might leave the Leave

campaign, you can't have World War Three or the global

Brexit recession? Johnson now tried a bit

of Project Fear of his own. He told the Telegraph

that the Brussels bureaucrats were trying to unify Europe

as Hitler had done before them. I thought it was absolutely bloody

awful, stupid thing to say, it really was, and I have no doubt

Boris regrets it. # Who do you think you are kidding

Mr Hitler # If you think we're

on the run #. In a magazine interview,

Cameron said, "Boris and I are still friends,

just not such good friends." Johnson arrives for the ITV debate

accompanied by two fellow Leave MPs, They will be up against

the Remainers, Nicola Sturgeon, the Scots Nat leader,

Labour's Angela Eagle and Amber Rudd,

the Cabinet Minister. She had apparently been briefed

by Downing Street to target her fellow Tory,

Boris Johnson, personally. You need to look at the numbers,

although I fear the only number Boris is interested in is the one

that says number ten. But the fact is, he is the life

and soul of the party but he's not the man you want driving you home

at the end of the evening. Straight after Amber Rudd's attack

on Johnson, David Cameron tweets that Amber Rudd is the star

of the programme. I don't think I would want Boris

to drive me anywhere actually! I don't think she meant

anything particularly sinister. I wasn't quite sure whether this

was trying to suggest that Boris was a drunk driver or that he

was not safe in taxis. Either way, it was deeply

undignified and a potentially lewd comment for a Cabinet

Minister to make. What did Johnson make

about Amber Rudd's charge that he was only interested

in getting to number ten? I really just repeat

what I have said. I think people genuinely

want to focus on the issues. Yes, of course people

will want to distract into all sorts of sideshows but the crucial thing

is, what are the facts The immigration issue has been

the trump card played Johnson and Michael Gove send

an open letter to the Prime Minister which accuses him of corroding

public trust A Leave campaign resorting to total

untruths to con people It is irresponsible, it is wrong,

and it is time that the Leave campaign was called out

on the nonsense that Don't make this choice on the basis

of false information. Let me take on this issue absolutely

directly because I am I am the proud descendant

of Turkish immigrants. And let me stun you perhaps

by saying I will go further, I'm not only pro-immigration,

I'm pro-immigrants and I am in favour of an amnesty for illegal

immigrants who have been The bitter exchanges

between the Prime Minister and the leading contender

for his crown exemplify a campaign widely seen as the most divisive

and duplicitous of modern times. And the greatest irony could be

that, after the referendum results come in, neither man will end up

with the job they have each fought for since

they were at school together. Michael cockerel on the big

divisions at the top of the Conservative party.

The key European issues have sometimes felt like a surface row

The referendum is like a couple arguing over who should walk

the dog, when the tension between them is really about one

We've seen divisions between those who think the world is working

Between London and other parts of the country, between

younger progressives and older conservatives.

All of these are fuzzy divides, but our politics has been

stretched and contorted in the weirdest of ways.

It's not obvious the party system can take the strain.

I'm back with my panel of Niall Ferguson,

Trevor Kavanagh, Isabel Hardman and Aditya Chakrabotty.

Better start on the Conservative party. I do not know if this can be

put back together or if there is a vague Remain win or Brexit. It is

more difficult in the event of Remain because you have a lot of

Conservative MPs who will feel betrayed and so the government

machine was harnessed against them in the campaign, particularly given

David Cameron walked into Downing Street this week and started

gesticulating at the door behind him during the period when you are not

supposed to use government buildings and gave a statement about why

Britain should vote to remain. These things will come to the surface if

there is a Remain vote and it will be difficult for David Cameron to

reunite the party, not just in terms of people not staging a coup against

him but in terms of getting any domestic reforms through the Commons

with a tiny majority. If there is a Brexit when, you are assuming he

will go? Has been post-conflict planning to stop him from going

immediately so that he can steer the country through a very difficult

time. He will have to work hard at going back on some of the warnings

he has made during the campaign, he said Brexit would put a warm under

the economy! Trevor, how do you think the Conservative party will

look after this? They are in a lot of trouble, I cannot see how they

can put the genie back in the bottle because one thing that is not seen

by outsiders is on the he has a disciplined Commons party, many of

those fighting for Remain are actually four Brexit themselves, and

you will see a lot of peerages and knighthoods which are suddenly

popping out as a reward to these people and a lot of people is --

another thing is this is Europe as well, this dissatisfaction with the

EU is spread across the EU and what is happening in Britain is really an

antagonism towards Brussels which is by proxy the view which is

resonating across Europe, it is not over. Let us go back to the man you

met in the gym, this is the schism, in the country as opposed to the

Conservative party, it has highlighted... If use depth back

from the hot blue on blue action, you have a governing class that

cannot govern very well, the first referendum on Europe since Harold

Wilson, Wilson winning that by a thumping majority, Harold Wilson

would never ask a question to which he was not confident on the answer

he would get and the day after, I looked at how my paper reported

this, the front page said Eu euphoria, imagine either of those

headlines emerging on Friday or Saturday. If you go by the polls,

you have a narrow Remain factory in which one side might lose but nobody

wins. And what I can see, if you go out and go to places looking like

they might vote for Leave, they hate the lot of them, if you ask, why do

you want to leave? Things cannot get worse. But you will not in a fit if

you leave. We have had enough. Tony Blair, Cameron, Jeremy Corbyn, what

you see in the East of England and the Northeast and Wales, essentially

a sense that they have tuned out the entire political class. This

proposed insurrection? A very solemn mutiny. This is happening all over

the world, that has not been a star Trek about the 1970s, Wilson ran the

more effective campaign in a country that was falling apart when is what

is happening at the moment is in fact revolt of rising expectation.

One of the reasons there is an immigration issue is the economy has

been doing so well, it has been attracting more people not only from

the EU but the rest of the world. And discouraging people from

leaving, which is white net migration has gone up so part of the

issue is, I agree, a populist backlash against the political elite

but we must recognise that in some measure, David Cameron is a victim

of his own success. The success of the economy and creating jobs, there

is very low -- unemployment in the country, despite the warnings... The

public are listening to and saying, you are one of them and you don't

get it. His net migration target has hugely angry voters because the

Conservatives have been unable to articulate how they can meet this

and have a thriller last parliament they talked about EU reform and

freedom of movement and they could not get that and they are stuck with

this target that they keep sticking to purely to be able to stick to the

promises, which is something politicians are obsessed with. I

thought the referendum is a mistake but in the immigration debate it

seems that we have lost sight of the fact that the majority of people

came to this country in the last two years and were not from the EU,

asylum seekers are tiny percentage of the people that come to this

country, we have total control over this. This is a debate about the EU.

Membership of the EU. Most of the migrants come here from outside the

EU. The public ride in broad sense to feel like we have been ripped

off? People think they have been told things will work for us but not

here? The vast majority of the working classes, a skilled and

semiskilled and unskilled, feel no benefit whatsoever from the

recovery. Our economy might well be the best in Europe and one of the

best in the world but the recovery is incredibly fragile, we still have

a huge national debt and the national deficit is growing, not

shrinking. If mass immigration is so good for the economy, why are people

struggling for jobs in this country in certain areas? What is

interesting is Trevor from the sun is quite close to where you are in

the Guardian although you focus on the British elite and you focus on

the EU elite. This referendum is not one that anyone particularly wanted

to have, the question is not one the voters are opposing, if you talk

about the Lisbon Treaty or the European Central Bank, they say, why

have no wages not gone up and when can make it scuttled the housing

ladder? They have their own answers and they try to squeeze them into

this binary of in or out. I completely agree with Isabel about

immigration, it has been wave after wave of broken promises, everything

from Iraq to the boom were meant to be going through to what was meant

to replace the industrialisation in places like the Northeast and Wales.

Let us finish on Labour, he started on the Conservatives. In many

respects, this is turning out to be a very big problem for Labour.

Labour is the weak link. It is the leadership of Jeremy Corbyn that is

a problem. Really, this referendum is going to the wire because of

Jeremy Corbyn and he is a disastrous leader who cannot get his supporters

are to support Remain. At the start of the campaign Labour MPs were

worried about the lack of enthusiasm for turning photo site but I was

talking to some of the last few weeks who said you don't necessarily

want voters to come out because they will Vote Leave, we would rather

they stayed in bed and that is not just Jeremy Corbyn. This is an

institutional Labour problem. That they have not addressed for years

and some of them are starting to worry this could be the party's

Scottish problem, they were warned about a problem with the

nationalists and they never really addressed it. They are doing the

same immigration. Suddenly, something happens that they cannot

control which is a referendum in which they are on the wrong side.

You are looking at the kind of slowed death of Labour, South Wales,

the Northeast. But you also looking at a disintegration of the liberal

mainstream and both parties because represents that but also the wing of

the Dutch are right of Labour MPs and there is no currency in being a

mainstream centrist politician, all the hot money goes to the polls of

the political debate. Are the centrist ones in the Tory party and

Labour Party, might they say we have got a lot of common with each other?

We disagree on everything expect the simple fact is, the question of

immigration has affected Labour voters in a way in which has been

undeniable except in the Labour Party. We need to leave it there.

Well, that is it from us for tonight, and from

We are not here tomorrow - but we will all be watching

the results programme on BBC One which starts at 9.55pm.

Emily will be there, as well as David Dimbleby.

I will be back in this chair on Friday,

Thunderstorms have already bought some intense downpours across parts

of Sussex and Kent this evenly and an Amber Warning in force from the

edge that Office means there is potential for further disruptive

downpours in