22/06/2016 Newsnight


22/06/2016

Film-maker Michael Cockerell looks at the conflict at the heart of the referendum campaign. Plus, with polling day tomorrow, a panel of journalists discuss who's ahead.


Similar Content

Browse content similar to 22/06/2016. Check below for episodes and series from the same categories and more!

Transcript


LineFromTo

I will go to Parliament and propose that the British people decide our

:00:09.:00:14.

future in Europe through a referendum on Thursday the 23rd of

:00:15.:00:15.

June. The choice is in your hands. And it's been a fraught fight

:00:16.:00:19.

to the bitter last day. We'll look back at the campaign

:00:20.:00:26.

and at what has cut through. Britain's not just deciding

:00:27.:00:30.

on Europe, it's deciding Michael Cockerell has been looking

:00:31.:00:33.

back at their history. We'll discuss the divisions that

:00:34.:00:40.

have been exposed in the run-up And ask how our political parties

:00:41.:00:51.

and the country will cope with the aftermath.

:00:52.:00:57.

On Friday the healing will have to begin.

:00:58.:01:02.

But ahead of that we have the small matter of the referendum itself.

:01:03.:01:05.

With it, such a cliffhanger there was a frenzy of last-minute

:01:06.:01:07.

campaigning, even though market day is upon us.

:01:08.:01:10.

And the professionals always remind us, you can't fatten

:01:11.:01:13.

A busy last day? Yes, it did have the feeling that this was bigger

:01:14.:01:30.

than the annual -- average General Election, Harriet Harman, David

:01:31.:01:34.

Cameron and Gordon Brown on the same platform and Boris Johnson crossing

:01:35.:01:38.

the country by helicopter and aeroplane and tonight, the final

:01:39.:01:43.

polls, the YouGov poll shows that remain are just ahead. Better news

:01:44.:01:49.

for them with Comres, it shows they are ahead, 54-40 six. These

:01:50.:01:56.

campaigns, the same polls and what is interesting is the feeling is the

:01:57.:02:03.

same in both camps, they can see the pathway to victory but they are

:02:04.:02:07.

nervous, in the Remain camp the reason they have confidence is they

:02:08.:02:11.

are watching the risk factor, voters saying it could be risky to leave

:02:12.:02:17.

and that drives the vote but what is making Remain nervous is what is

:02:18.:02:21.

making Vote Leave happy, if you're that there is a disconnect the

:02:22.:02:25.

Indian elite of the Labour Party in favour of remaining and the rest of

:02:26.:02:27.

the Labour party grassroots throughout the rest of the country

:02:28.:02:31.

but at least the Remain campaign have the Labour party machinery.

:02:32.:02:36.

Vote Leave has no party machinery behind it and tomorrow is all about

:02:37.:02:41.

getting that vote out. We will hear from you in a moment.

:02:42.:02:42.

One in which the techniques of the "hard sell" have been pushed

:02:43.:02:47.

And it's a campaign that's demonstrated

:02:48.:02:50.

On each side, protagonists have proffered their view with more

:02:51.:02:53.

certainty and strength than perhaps their case deserved.

:02:54.:02:57.

In doing so they have hardened their argument but have

:02:58.:03:00.

It seemed like sales talk rather than explanation.

:03:01.:03:05.

I wonder whether the ambivalent among us might have been more

:03:06.:03:08.

persuaded by someone more, well, ambivalent?

:03:09.:03:10.

David Grossman has been been looking back at the campaign and at what has

:03:11.:03:14.

But the role of the dice, risking the future. -- with the role of the

:03:15.:03:39.

dice. All aboard for Britain remaining within the EU.

:03:40.:03:42.

Looking back, we can definitely say it has brought the country together.

:03:43.:03:48.

My daughter will not get into the school she needed. I am a Cornish

:03:49.:04:03.

fishermen and you are not. You might not be very bright but that says...

:04:04.:04:10.

Read that! You are being intimidated.

:04:11.:04:13.

Any idea that this might be a uniting referendum,

:04:14.:04:16.

we have sort of split into two countries, Remainia and Leavia.

:04:17.:04:19.

There are a lot of social differences between us

:04:20.:04:22.

and the referendum has got so close and is going right down to the wire,

:04:23.:04:26.

that those differences have become even more

:04:27.:04:28.

At times, it has been enough to drive you to drink.

:04:29.:04:41.

A large quantity of real ale is one of the best ways to get through this

:04:42.:04:47.

referendum campaign and Iraq amend that to everybody! The sweet taste

:04:48.:04:52.

of remaining within the EU. What better, then, than bitter

:04:53.:04:55.

to toast the end of this Although political types have been

:04:56.:04:57.

utterly intoxicated by this referendum, how much of what has

:04:58.:05:01.

been going on has actually cut Thank you, all of you, for

:05:02.:05:14.

everything you are doing to support Vote Leave.

:05:15.:05:16.

It is a reality of politics that generally, the folk who get

:05:17.:05:19.

fired up and immerse themselves in the campaign,

:05:20.:05:21.

how can we put this politely, are not always representative

:05:22.:05:23.

The vast majority probably don't pay as much attention as people

:05:24.:05:30.

Instead, the average person, the 50% of people less

:05:31.:05:38.

engaged than on the street, isn't as engaged in the detail

:05:39.:05:42.

of specific issues or specific policies.

:05:43.:05:47.

Instead, they are interested in what we call the broad

:05:48.:05:52.

narratives, the stories of what we tell ourselves and each

:05:53.:05:54.

Is, for instance, Britain doing well being in the EU or not?

:05:55.:06:01.

This has meant the campaigns have been hammering away at the same

:06:02.:06:06.

I thought the Remain side was very clear.

:06:07.:06:24.

Let's keep talking about the economy and let's scare the living pellets

:06:25.:06:28.

out of voters who are undecided by making them think we're

:06:29.:06:30.

going to have economic collapse, complete house, World Tour III,

:06:31.:06:33.

goodness knows what else, plague and pestilence come Friday,

:06:34.:06:35.

And I think it worked in the early stages.

:06:36.:06:38.

Meanwhile, Vote Leave was serving up something just as bite

:06:39.:06:42.

Is it not time to take back control? We want to take back control.

:06:43.:06:47.

I don't think they really knew what they were doing in the early

:06:48.:06:50.

stages, the early weeks were completely dominated.

:06:51.:06:51.

It was all about the Remain campaign and reaction from the Leave campaign

:06:52.:07:01.

and only in the last week or so, Leave have been the front foot in

:07:02.:07:08.

trying to lead the debate. KV Racing might be the perfect referendum

:07:09.:07:16.

metaphor. -- pig racing. But as a way of measuring public opinion, it

:07:17.:07:20.

is well be less useful. For all of the match discussed difficulties, we

:07:21.:07:28.

prefer to use posters. The polling organisation YouGov has asked voters

:07:29.:07:31.

which events from the campaign they remember. Top of the list was Vote

:07:32.:07:37.

Leave pulls my campaign that we said ?350 million per week to Brussels

:07:38.:07:43.

with 42% remembering. Next was the news that net migration to the UK

:07:44.:07:47.

had hit 333,000, with 37% recalling that. And thirdly, Vote Leave's

:07:48.:07:54.

focus on Turkey and other candidate countries joining the EU on 36%. The

:07:55.:08:00.

top three items were from the Brexit side. The top three items were leave

:08:01.:08:06.

items, they were also more likely to be followed by people who support

:08:07.:08:11.

Leave and because all of the items, there was more interest in people

:08:12.:08:15.

following them if they were likely to Vote Leave and this corresponds

:08:16.:08:19.

to the data that shows that people who say they will Vote Leave are

:08:20.:08:23.

more likely to vote and more likely to be interested and pay attention.

:08:24.:08:27.

That is interesting because there are two dimensions to this, the

:08:28.:08:32.

issue of whether people will Vote Leave or Remain and the issue if

:08:33.:08:36.

they choose to vote or not. Added is that combination of things that will

:08:37.:08:43.

decide the result. The highest Remain argument was a Treasury

:08:44.:08:46.

report that Brexit would spark a year-long recession, that was 35%.

:08:47.:08:51.

Barack Obama saying the UK would be at the back of the queue for a new

:08:52.:08:55.

trade deal with the US in the event of Brexit was weak called by 31% and

:08:56.:08:59.

Jeremy Corbyn's warning about Brexit and the NHS was only remembered by

:09:00.:09:05.

24%. That is not much more than one of the fake items, 21% said they

:09:06.:09:11.

remembered Boris Johnson and David Cameron each calling there other and

:09:12.:09:14.

liar during a live television debate. Despite the fact that that

:09:15.:09:20.

never happened. Although everyone says they want calm, rational,

:09:21.:09:27.

polite debate, secretly, campaigns are trying to generate angry

:09:28.:09:32.

conflict. Using indisputable sadistic, for example, are scary

:09:33.:09:36.

sound bite, generates their time on your preferred subject. The

:09:37.:09:41.

campaigns have been trying to create disputes around their central points

:09:42.:09:47.

so that people will argue over it. Salience is everything, can you move

:09:48.:09:53.

your issue up the agenda? Remain has decided -- succeeded on that, watch

:09:54.:10:01.

the opinion polls, when the salience is up, so is the opinion poll

:10:02.:10:07.

rating. From tomorrow, the leaflets should subside and we would have to

:10:08.:10:10.

pretend to be a night when there is not that the door but there is no

:10:11.:10:13.

hiding from the fact that this referendum has divided the UK.

:10:14.:10:17.

Whatever the result, healing the disputes this campaign has unleashed

:10:18.:10:18.

will not be easy. David Grossman. We'll both sides be satisfied? Who

:10:19.:10:31.

is a theme that unites both campaigns, it proves the old Adam

:10:32.:10:36.

Ashe that the best late military plans rarely survive first contact

:10:37.:10:40.

with the enemy and in the case of the Remain campaign David Cameron

:10:41.:10:43.

and George Osborne were planning to rip free their success in the

:10:44.:10:48.

Scottish referendum with Project Fear. They have focused on that but

:10:49.:10:52.

there is a change away from metrics, if we leave the EU it will cost

:10:53.:10:59.

thousands of pounds, nobody believed that, they moved to a narrative,

:11:00.:11:03.

about the dangers of the here and now, we have not yet left but the

:11:04.:11:07.

markets are already worried and in the case of the Leave campaign, what

:11:08.:11:17.

they were focusing on was... They came very late to immigration? Yes,

:11:18.:11:24.

with immigration one month ago, they focused on that, they had great

:11:25.:11:28.

success and there were not planning on that, they were planning on a

:11:29.:11:32.

broader message but one person has been consistent and that is Nigel

:11:33.:11:37.

Farage and asked him how he felt today about Vote Leave taking some

:11:38.:11:37.

of his ideas. The day Vote Leave moved on to

:11:38.:11:40.

talking about an Australian-style points system I cheered so loudly

:11:41.:11:42.

I nearly lost my voice. Because that was the day

:11:43.:11:45.

that the Leave campaign Interesting. There is a campaign and

:11:46.:11:59.

the aftermath and they are already thinking about the aftermath? I have

:12:00.:12:04.

learned that in the aftermath, Downing Street are confident that

:12:05.:12:06.

the Prime Minister will win this referendum. But there are

:12:07.:12:10.

discussions under way about what will happen if he loses. He has been

:12:11.:12:15.

consulting colleagues. We know he will make the statement in the early

:12:16.:12:19.

hours of Friday morning, being very clear about his intention about how

:12:20.:12:23.

he will run the Brexit negotiations if he survives and also about his

:12:24.:12:26.

own position and there are divisions. Some people say he could

:12:27.:12:31.

survive if he appointed a Brexit minister in charge of those

:12:32.:12:34.

negotiations but other friends say no, and one said, Ken Clarke was

:12:35.:12:39.

wrong to say he would be gone in 30 seconds. He will be gone in 60

:12:40.:12:44.

seconds! You can hear almost the sound of people grappling with the

:12:45.:12:46.

issues. For what it's worth, I suspect that,

:12:47.:12:47.

despite all the confusion that has been sown, through the noise,

:12:48.:12:50.

most people have grasped the basics. Migration: we're more likely

:12:51.:12:53.

to limit European immigration The economy: the vast bulk

:12:54.:12:54.

of economic, financial and business opinion thinks it would be

:12:55.:13:00.

best to stay. Sovereignty: Brussels will have less

:13:01.:13:01.

power over us if we leave, but that we'll have less power over

:13:02.:13:05.

Brussels if we do. Frankly, the rest is

:13:06.:13:07.

just detail anyway. The argument is over which of these

:13:08.:13:09.

different issues is the one And the world divides

:13:10.:13:12.

into those who know, and those who are are having to make

:13:13.:13:15.

up their mind. None of us have ordered it, we could

:13:16.:13:24.

all be swayed in either direction. Everybody I have talked to is

:13:25.:13:30.

confused. Why can't economists do for and against without being

:13:31.:13:35.

biased? We need 10,000 more doctors because we have 100,000 more people

:13:36.:13:39.

coming in. The only way people have a future in the North is from the

:13:40.:13:45.

EU. At the end of the day, to make a difference, everybody has to vote

:13:46.:13:48.

for it and without that it doesn't make a difference.

:13:49.:13:50.

Joining me now to reflect on standout moments

:13:51.:13:53.

of the referendum campaign is Professor of History at

:13:54.:13:55.

Sun political columnist Trevor Kavanagh.

:13:56.:13:57.

Assistant editor of The Spectator Isabel Hardman.

:13:58.:13:59.

And the Guardian's senior economics commentator, Aditya Chakrabortty.

:14:00.:14:07.

Thank you for coming in. We have asked you to think about one telling

:14:08.:14:13.

moment in the campaign that might be an interesting point. Trevor? For

:14:14.:14:20.

me, the first evidence that this was game on and I suspect for David

:14:21.:14:24.

Cameron was on February the 18th, the day of the Cabinet when he

:14:25.:14:30.

unveiled his empty-handed referendum... The renegotiation.

:14:31.:14:36.

Nothing to offer all of you. And Michael Gove immediately came out

:14:37.:14:42.

that evenly with a sickly the Brexit manifesto, he rapidly moved out of

:14:43.:14:44.

the traps and that took Downing Street by surprise and I think if it

:14:45.:14:49.

had not been for that, Boris Johnson would not have joined the fray. He

:14:50.:14:53.

rode a very powerful and eloquent speech? Yes. Next? What for you was

:14:54.:15:06.

that moment? The financier Nicholas Massereene says you should always

:15:07.:15:08.

listen to what people are talking about in the local gym, this man

:15:09.:15:13.

came over to me, and said, have you seen the leaflet about David

:15:14.:15:19.

Cameron? Yes, it is doormat. That costs ?350 million. I am not so sure

:15:20.:15:26.

about that! And then he said, if we vote to leave, I do not think

:15:27.:15:29.

Cameron will accept that. He will keep Austin and will go back to

:15:30.:15:33.

Brussels and we negotiate. And I thought, is the? Where has he got

:15:34.:15:38.

that from? I look at the opinion polls and they showed that the

:15:39.:15:42.

majority of British people agreed, even if he voted no, we want to

:15:43.:15:46.

leave, but don't trust the governing class to accept that.

:15:47.:15:50.

So the big point... What you have seen played out is this lingering

:15:51.:15:57.

and quite serious distrust of the governing class, Labour or Tory,

:15:58.:16:03.

from across the country. What has been the standout moment for you? It

:16:04.:16:09.

was a week ago, Nigel Farage's poster from the anti-immigration

:16:10.:16:14.

poster. This was the moment of truth, or rather the moment of

:16:15.:16:17.

untruths because it was the most shameless attempt to misrepresent

:16:18.:16:21.

the issue of immigration, distorting completely what is at stake in this

:16:22.:16:27.

referendum. As it coincided with the murder of Jo Cox, it seems to me

:16:28.:16:32.

like a really terrifying reminder that the ghost of Enoch Powell still

:16:33.:16:37.

stalks the politics of this nation simultaneously, anti-immigration and

:16:38.:16:42.

anti-Europe and this was the rivers of blood moment. I find it

:16:43.:16:45.

terrifying and a great many people felt the same weight and it stopped

:16:46.:16:53.

what seemed like momentum in the -- of Lever in its tracks.

:16:54.:16:56.

I think the distrust factor is extremely acute and there was a poll

:16:57.:17:06.

showing how much it is reflected against, of all people, the pie

:17:07.:17:10.

Minister and the Chancellor. There are accounts and forecasts on the

:17:11.:17:13.

effect on the economy are disbelieved totally by the

:17:14.:17:18.

electorate -- the Prime Minister. What about the point that there is a

:17:19.:17:21.

politics of hate? I wonder if you accept that this has been a bit more

:17:22.:17:26.

brutal than we have been used to? Much more so and from both sides but

:17:27.:17:33.

predominantly on the Remain camp and Amber Rudd's Tare in the debate

:17:34.:17:37.

against Boris Johnson was really quite ugly -- Thai raid.

:17:38.:17:45.

What Farrag is arguing with the post is that we have a crisis with asylum

:17:46.:17:53.

seekers from Syria and the absolutely don't. All of this talk

:17:54.:17:56.

of taking control is a complete misrepresentation of the immigration

:17:57.:18:00.

issue. We will have a discussion later. Isabel is sitting quietly and

:18:01.:18:12.

patiently. Your moment? George Osborne's exit budget, not into and

:18:13.:18:15.

the impact it would have had on but the long-term impact on the

:18:16.:18:20.

Conservative Party. It was such a ludicrous thing to produce and the

:18:21.:18:23.

thing that amused me the most was that he was saying he would have to

:18:24.:18:28.

cut disability benefits when he had a month ago triggered the

:18:29.:18:30.

resignation of a Cabinet member within the EU for doing just that.

:18:31.:18:35.

There were so many Conservative MPs who said they would vote against it

:18:36.:18:40.

it went far beyond the usual malcontents who are always

:18:41.:18:42.

complaining about Cameron and Osborne. These were sensible Tory

:18:43.:18:45.

MPs who in their heart apart just want to get over the referendum. And

:18:46.:18:50.

the IFS and others all gain credibility by saying it is not

:18:51.:18:55.

necessarily... Was this part of that salient thing we heard about? You

:18:56.:19:00.

say something that is stupid in order to get the conversation back

:19:01.:19:03.

onto the thing you talk about rather than what they are talking about?

:19:04.:19:07.

And is it veered back to immigration, the Remain campaign

:19:08.:19:11.

warnings have become more and more ludicrous. We had Donald Tusk

:19:12.:19:19.

warning about the end of Western civilisation and I started to think

:19:20.:19:23.

there was a bit of panic in the Remain ranks. We will hear from you

:19:24.:19:24.

in a bit later. Each side in the campaign has

:19:25.:19:26.

pushed its most popular figures to the fore,

:19:27.:19:28.

with the result that it's often seemed as though it's less

:19:29.:19:31.

of a contest between Leave and Remain, and more

:19:32.:19:33.

of a personal battle between Boris Johnson and David

:19:34.:19:35.

Cameron. Their rivalry has history,

:19:36.:19:36.

it's fair to say. And the film-maker Michael Cockerell

:19:37.:19:38.

has been looking at the relationship between the two men,

:19:39.:19:41.

and how that has influenced this David Cameron admires

:19:42.:19:43.

Boris Johnson's charisma and he desperately wanted BoJo

:19:44.:19:54.

on his side in the But Johnson wouldn't

:19:55.:19:56.

make up his mind. In February he drove to his bolthole

:19:57.:20:03.

in Oxfordshire, having said he was genuinely conflicted

:20:04.:20:06.

on whether or not to go for Brexit and was veering all over the place

:20:07.:20:09.

like a supermarket trolley. Johnson was being offered a top

:20:10.:20:13.

Cabinet job by Cameron if he joined He decided he would use his weekly

:20:14.:20:16.

Daily Telegraph column, for which he is paid a quarter

:20:17.:20:21.

of a million a year, I've been told by someone

:20:22.:20:24.

in a position to know that you wrote two articles for the Daily Telegraph

:20:25.:20:31.

because you knew you had to have an article in

:20:32.:20:35.

the Daily Telegraph on the Monday. One was for staying in,

:20:36.:20:38.

the other was for getting out. And the person who told me this said

:20:39.:20:42.

the one for staying I don't know what your conceivable

:20:43.:20:45.

sources for that information may be, but I can tell you, seriously,

:20:46.:20:55.

I decided that it was much This person said that your arguments

:20:56.:20:59.

for staying in were stronger And I will tell you what the second

:21:00.:21:07.

article said. What it said was that, actually,

:21:08.:21:18.

irrespective of my objections to the way the EU was going,

:21:19.:21:23.

in order to support my party and the Prime Minister,

:21:24.:21:26.

it would be better to stay in. And I thought, in the end,

:21:27.:21:29.

that wasn't a good enough reason. Now let me say about Boris,

:21:30.:21:34.

I have huge respect for Boris as a politician, he is a great

:21:35.:21:38.

friend of mine, he is I think he has got a lot to give

:21:39.:21:41.

to the Conservative Party, I think he's got a lot

:21:42.:21:46.

to give to this country. But on this issue I think he's got

:21:47.:21:48.

it wrong and I think he's reached So we're going to have,

:21:49.:21:52.

I hope, a very reasonable, It is the latest contest

:21:53.:21:55.

in the relationship between the two men who had been friends and rivals

:21:56.:22:00.

for nearly 40 years. They had first met at Eton

:22:01.:22:05.

where Johnson was a scholarship boy who was two years older

:22:06.:22:08.

than the stockbroker's son known I'm fairly certain someone said

:22:09.:22:11.

to me once, that's Cameron Mi, Johnson's relationship

:22:12.:22:20.

with Cameron Minor would be an up and down affair

:22:21.:22:31.

throughout their lives. At Eton it was Johnson

:22:32.:22:33.

who became the school star. He was the top player in the team

:22:34.:22:36.

for the Wall Game. He was also a member of the elite

:22:37.:22:40.

group which could wear its own fancy waistcoats and he was made

:22:41.:22:44.

captain of the school. The fact that Cameron did not

:22:45.:22:46.

achieve either honour is something that he is often privately

:22:47.:22:49.

reminded of by Johnson. When the two went on to Oxford,

:22:50.:22:54.

they were elected members And they appeared together

:22:55.:22:56.

in the same photograph which they both wish could be

:22:57.:23:02.

airbrushed out of history. Johnson, who believes

:23:03.:23:07.

he is cleverer than Cameron, left Oxford with a second

:23:08.:23:11.

in classics and was disappointed to learn that David Cameron got

:23:12.:23:13.

a first in politics, Cameron's ambition, like Johnson's,

:23:14.:23:16.

was to become Prime Minister. He's very clever, he's totally

:23:17.:23:24.

devoted to politics. Indeed, when he was very young,

:23:25.:23:27.

he was nicknamed the Prime Minister because he always took

:23:28.:23:30.

politics very seriously, The two men were elected Tory MPs

:23:31.:23:31.

for safe seats in The Cotswolds in 2001 and were fast rising up

:23:32.:23:39.

the greasy pole. Until Boris was sacked

:23:40.:23:43.

from the shadow front bench for lying about a love

:23:44.:23:46.

affair to the then party At the time, David Cameron MP was

:23:47.:23:48.

one of the leader's chief advisers. Did you think it was a good idea

:23:49.:23:55.

for Michael Howard I think, I mean, that's obviously

:23:56.:23:58.

one for him rather than for me. But I think there's a very difficult

:23:59.:24:07.

issue when you say one thing publicly and then you have to say

:24:08.:24:10.

something else publicly, even though Boris is a very close friend

:24:11.:24:13.

of mine, a colleague and, you know, it was obviously a very tough

:24:14.:24:19.

time for him as well. After Cameron was elected Tory

:24:20.:24:23.

leader, he persuaded a reluctant Johnson suspected it was a ploy

:24:24.:24:27.

by Cameron to remove This is an excellent opportunity

:24:28.:24:31.

for London to have someone who I think you can unite Londoners,

:24:32.:24:39.

can inspire Londoners and can give leadership to what is one

:24:40.:24:42.

of the greatest cities in the world. It is greatest city in the world,

:24:43.:24:45.

London is the greatest Sorry, I don't want to interrupt

:24:46.:24:51.

you. It's a fantastic chance to change

:24:52.:24:54.

the government of London and to institute a new type

:24:55.:24:59.

and style of administration # He flies through the air

:25:00.:25:01.

with the greatest of ease # A daring young man

:25:02.:25:08.

on his flying trapeze #. The high point of Johnson's time

:25:09.:25:14.

as mayor was a zip wire trip If any other politician anywhere

:25:15.:25:17.

in the world got stuck on a zip wire For Boris it would be

:25:18.:25:32.

an absolute triumph! The current In-Out referendum

:25:33.:25:35.

campaign is a no holds barred battle which could see the Prime Minister

:25:36.:25:46.

losing his crown jewels Johnson had kept everyone guessing

:25:47.:25:49.

for months about which side I thought I'd better come

:25:50.:25:56.

out and say something because I could see you were all

:25:57.:26:05.

in a great mass here. The last thing I wanted was to go

:26:06.:26:08.

against David Cameron But after a great deal of heartache,

:26:09.:26:12.

I don't think there's I will be advocating Vote Leave,

:26:13.:26:18.

or whatever the team is called. That is basically it,

:26:19.:26:23.

because I want a better deal Is this a calculated,

:26:24.:26:29.

cynical play for the leadership On the contrary, I think that really

:26:30.:26:36.

and truly it would be the best thing possible for the people

:26:37.:26:44.

who are listening to this debate, wondering genuinely

:26:45.:26:47.

in their mind which way to go. Johnson had only given Cameron five

:26:48.:26:49.

minutes' warning for this I am human so obviously

:26:50.:26:56.

I was disappointed, I would be inhuman not to be sad

:26:57.:27:05.

and disappointed that Boris has Privately, the word from number ten

:27:06.:27:08.

was that the PM was incandescent that Boris had decided to out

:27:09.:27:17.

himself as an Outer. There is to be a leadership election

:27:18.:27:21.

in the Conservative Party before the next election

:27:22.:27:24.

because the Prime Minister has already said that he's not

:27:25.:27:31.

going to stand down and it is said, I'm told,

:27:32.:27:33.

that Boris intends to stand in that

:27:34.:27:36.

leadership election. And it is also further held that

:27:37.:27:40.

you couldn't lead the Tory party But I believe that some of those

:27:41.:27:43.

factors may have contributed to Boris's damascian

:27:44.:27:49.

conversion to the Out cause. And he told me he wasn't an Outer,

:27:50.:27:51.

he told a lot of other So I regret very much

:27:52.:27:58.

that he did it. In the Commons, the Prime Minister

:27:59.:28:01.

couldn't resist a subtle dig Mr Speaker, I am not

:28:02.:28:04.

standing for re-election. I have no other agenda,

:28:05.:28:13.

I have no other agenda I don't want this to become a sort

:28:14.:28:15.

of Tory psychodrama And I don't want too many blue

:28:16.:28:21.

on blue conflicts. I want to prove the breadth

:28:22.:28:26.

of the campaign. Cameron launched the Remain campaign

:28:27.:28:31.

in the impressive establishment Isolationism has never

:28:32.:28:33.

served this country well. Whenever we turn our back on Europe,

:28:34.:28:38.

sooner or later The rows of white headstones

:28:39.:28:40.

in lovingly-tended Commonwealth war cemeteries stand as silent testament

:28:41.:28:50.

to the price that this country has paid to help restore peace

:28:51.:28:53.

and order in Europe. Cameron's speech was immediately

:28:54.:28:58.

interpreted by much of the press, and by Boris Johnson,

:28:59.:29:02.

as what they dubbed Project Fear, that leaving Europe could

:29:03.:29:08.

threaten a third World War. I think all this talk

:29:09.:29:10.

of World War Three and bubonic Johnson made a point of contrasting

:29:11.:29:12.

the Leave campaign with the splendour of Cameron

:29:13.:29:20.

and the Remainers. This is a struggle of the little

:29:21.:29:23.

platoons against the big battalions. And they have the CBI and Goldman

:29:24.:29:33.

Sachs and Peter Mandelson. And then, last Friday,

:29:34.:29:39.

we got the definitive He finally revealed what Brexit

:29:40.:29:41.

looks like, and I don't mean the sight of his rear climbing up

:29:42.:29:52.

into that driver's cab. To strengthen the Remain cause,

:29:53.:30:03.

Cameron had enlisted the most powerful man in the world to put

:30:04.:30:05.

the case against Brexit. Johnson issued a pre-emptive strike,

:30:06.:30:08.

accusing Obama of being anti-British Obama delivered a magisterial rebuke

:30:09.:30:13.

and Boris was in the doghouse. I thought Boris got that wrong

:30:14.:30:21.

and I thought it was a terrific misjudgement of the proper

:30:22.:30:24.

thing to say. And I think it kind of showed Boris

:30:25.:30:26.

not in a good light. Alas, poor Boris, I knew him,

:30:27.:30:31.

a fellow of infinite jest. David Cameron seemed to be on a roll

:30:32.:30:39.

as he played up the economic cost What do you think of the way

:30:40.:30:42.

that David Cameron has This whole idea that there will be

:30:43.:30:49.

a plague of frogs and the death of the first-born if we vote

:30:50.:30:57.

to leave when, a week before the renegotiation is completed,

:30:58.:31:00.

the Prime Minister intimated that he might leave the Leave

:31:01.:31:02.

campaign, you can't have World War Three or the global

:31:03.:31:04.

Brexit recession? Johnson now tried a bit

:31:05.:31:09.

of Project Fear of his own. He told the Telegraph

:31:10.:31:18.

that the Brussels bureaucrats were trying to unify Europe

:31:19.:31:22.

as Hitler had done before them. I thought it was absolutely bloody

:31:23.:31:27.

awful, stupid thing to say, it really was, and I have no doubt

:31:28.:31:30.

Boris regrets it. # Who do you think you are kidding

:31:31.:31:32.

Mr Hitler # If you think we're

:31:33.:31:36.

on the run #. In a magazine interview,

:31:37.:31:41.

Cameron said, "Boris and I are still friends,

:31:42.:31:46.

just not such good friends." Johnson arrives for the ITV debate

:31:47.:31:52.

accompanied by two fellow Leave MPs, They will be up against

:31:53.:31:56.

the Remainers, Nicola Sturgeon, the Scots Nat leader,

:31:57.:32:02.

Labour's Angela Eagle and Amber Rudd,

:32:03.:32:05.

the Cabinet Minister. She had apparently been briefed

:32:06.:32:08.

by Downing Street to target her fellow Tory,

:32:09.:32:10.

Boris Johnson, personally. You need to look at the numbers,

:32:11.:32:15.

although I fear the only number Boris is interested in is the one

:32:16.:32:18.

that says number ten. But the fact is, he is the life

:32:19.:32:23.

and soul of the party but he's not the man you want driving you home

:32:24.:32:27.

at the end of the evening. Straight after Amber Rudd's attack

:32:28.:32:37.

on Johnson, David Cameron tweets that Amber Rudd is the star

:32:38.:32:41.

of the programme. I don't think I would want Boris

:32:42.:32:45.

to drive me anywhere actually! I don't think she meant

:32:46.:32:50.

anything particularly sinister. I wasn't quite sure whether this

:32:51.:32:54.

was trying to suggest that Boris was a drunk driver or that he

:32:55.:32:57.

was not safe in taxis. Either way, it was deeply

:32:58.:33:00.

undignified and a potentially lewd comment for a Cabinet

:33:01.:33:02.

Minister to make. What did Johnson make

:33:03.:33:05.

about Amber Rudd's charge that he was only interested

:33:06.:33:07.

in getting to number ten? I really just repeat

:33:08.:33:11.

what I have said. I think people genuinely

:33:12.:33:13.

want to focus on the issues. Yes, of course people

:33:14.:33:16.

will want to distract into all sorts of sideshows but the crucial thing

:33:17.:33:20.

is, what are the facts The immigration issue has been

:33:21.:33:24.

the trump card played Johnson and Michael Gove send

:33:25.:33:35.

an open letter to the Prime Minister which accuses him of corroding

:33:36.:33:43.

public trust A Leave campaign resorting to total

:33:44.:33:45.

untruths to con people It is irresponsible, it is wrong,

:33:46.:33:54.

and it is time that the Leave campaign was called out

:33:55.:34:01.

on the nonsense that Don't make this choice on the basis

:34:02.:34:04.

of false information. Let me take on this issue absolutely

:34:05.:34:11.

directly because I am I am the proud descendant

:34:12.:34:14.

of Turkish immigrants. And let me stun you perhaps

:34:15.:34:23.

by saying I will go further, I'm not only pro-immigration,

:34:24.:34:32.

I'm pro-immigrants and I am in favour of an amnesty for illegal

:34:33.:34:34.

immigrants who have been The bitter exchanges

:34:35.:34:36.

between the Prime Minister and the leading contender

:34:37.:34:42.

for his crown exemplify a campaign widely seen as the most divisive

:34:43.:34:45.

and duplicitous of modern times. And the greatest irony could be

:34:46.:34:49.

that, after the referendum results come in, neither man will end up

:34:50.:34:53.

with the job they have each fought for since

:34:54.:34:56.

they were at school together. Michael cockerel on the big

:34:57.:35:09.

divisions at the top of the Conservative party.

:35:10.:35:11.

The key European issues have sometimes felt like a surface row

:35:12.:35:16.

The referendum is like a couple arguing over who should walk

:35:17.:35:20.

the dog, when the tension between them is really about one

:35:21.:35:22.

We've seen divisions between those who think the world is working

:35:23.:35:26.

Between London and other parts of the country, between

:35:27.:35:30.

younger progressives and older conservatives.

:35:31.:35:31.

All of these are fuzzy divides, but our politics has been

:35:32.:35:34.

stretched and contorted in the weirdest of ways.

:35:35.:35:35.

It's not obvious the party system can take the strain.

:35:36.:35:38.

I'm back with my panel of Niall Ferguson,

:35:39.:35:40.

Trevor Kavanagh, Isabel Hardman and Aditya Chakrabotty.

:35:41.:35:44.

Better start on the Conservative party. I do not know if this can be

:35:45.:35:52.

put back together or if there is a vague Remain win or Brexit. It is

:35:53.:35:59.

more difficult in the event of Remain because you have a lot of

:36:00.:36:02.

Conservative MPs who will feel betrayed and so the government

:36:03.:36:04.

machine was harnessed against them in the campaign, particularly given

:36:05.:36:08.

David Cameron walked into Downing Street this week and started

:36:09.:36:13.

gesticulating at the door behind him during the period when you are not

:36:14.:36:17.

supposed to use government buildings and gave a statement about why

:36:18.:36:21.

Britain should vote to remain. These things will come to the surface if

:36:22.:36:25.

there is a Remain vote and it will be difficult for David Cameron to

:36:26.:36:28.

reunite the party, not just in terms of people not staging a coup against

:36:29.:36:32.

him but in terms of getting any domestic reforms through the Commons

:36:33.:36:36.

with a tiny majority. If there is a Brexit when, you are assuming he

:36:37.:36:41.

will go? Has been post-conflict planning to stop him from going

:36:42.:36:46.

immediately so that he can steer the country through a very difficult

:36:47.:36:50.

time. He will have to work hard at going back on some of the warnings

:36:51.:36:53.

he has made during the campaign, he said Brexit would put a warm under

:36:54.:37:02.

the economy! Trevor, how do you think the Conservative party will

:37:03.:37:06.

look after this? They are in a lot of trouble, I cannot see how they

:37:07.:37:10.

can put the genie back in the bottle because one thing that is not seen

:37:11.:37:14.

by outsiders is on the he has a disciplined Commons party, many of

:37:15.:37:19.

those fighting for Remain are actually four Brexit themselves, and

:37:20.:37:25.

you will see a lot of peerages and knighthoods which are suddenly

:37:26.:37:29.

popping out as a reward to these people and a lot of people is --

:37:30.:37:35.

another thing is this is Europe as well, this dissatisfaction with the

:37:36.:37:39.

EU is spread across the EU and what is happening in Britain is really an

:37:40.:37:44.

antagonism towards Brussels which is by proxy the view which is

:37:45.:37:47.

resonating across Europe, it is not over. Let us go back to the man you

:37:48.:37:57.

met in the gym, this is the schism, in the country as opposed to the

:37:58.:38:01.

Conservative party, it has highlighted... If use depth back

:38:02.:38:09.

from the hot blue on blue action, you have a governing class that

:38:10.:38:14.

cannot govern very well, the first referendum on Europe since Harold

:38:15.:38:19.

Wilson, Wilson winning that by a thumping majority, Harold Wilson

:38:20.:38:22.

would never ask a question to which he was not confident on the answer

:38:23.:38:25.

he would get and the day after, I looked at how my paper reported

:38:26.:38:35.

this, the front page said Eu euphoria, imagine either of those

:38:36.:38:38.

headlines emerging on Friday or Saturday. If you go by the polls,

:38:39.:38:46.

you have a narrow Remain factory in which one side might lose but nobody

:38:47.:38:52.

wins. And what I can see, if you go out and go to places looking like

:38:53.:38:57.

they might vote for Leave, they hate the lot of them, if you ask, why do

:38:58.:39:00.

you want to leave? Things cannot get worse. But you will not in a fit if

:39:01.:39:07.

you leave. We have had enough. Tony Blair, Cameron, Jeremy Corbyn, what

:39:08.:39:13.

you see in the East of England and the Northeast and Wales, essentially

:39:14.:39:18.

a sense that they have tuned out the entire political class. This

:39:19.:39:25.

proposed insurrection? A very solemn mutiny. This is happening all over

:39:26.:39:32.

the world, that has not been a star Trek about the 1970s, Wilson ran the

:39:33.:39:36.

more effective campaign in a country that was falling apart when is what

:39:37.:39:39.

is happening at the moment is in fact revolt of rising expectation.

:39:40.:39:43.

One of the reasons there is an immigration issue is the economy has

:39:44.:39:47.

been doing so well, it has been attracting more people not only from

:39:48.:39:52.

the EU but the rest of the world. And discouraging people from

:39:53.:39:56.

leaving, which is white net migration has gone up so part of the

:39:57.:40:00.

issue is, I agree, a populist backlash against the political elite

:40:01.:40:04.

but we must recognise that in some measure, David Cameron is a victim

:40:05.:40:09.

of his own success. The success of the economy and creating jobs, there

:40:10.:40:13.

is very low -- unemployment in the country, despite the warnings... The

:40:14.:40:19.

public are listening to and saying, you are one of them and you don't

:40:20.:40:24.

get it. His net migration target has hugely angry voters because the

:40:25.:40:26.

Conservatives have been unable to articulate how they can meet this

:40:27.:40:32.

and have a thriller last parliament they talked about EU reform and

:40:33.:40:35.

freedom of movement and they could not get that and they are stuck with

:40:36.:40:38.

this target that they keep sticking to purely to be able to stick to the

:40:39.:40:42.

promises, which is something politicians are obsessed with. I

:40:43.:40:46.

thought the referendum is a mistake but in the immigration debate it

:40:47.:40:51.

seems that we have lost sight of the fact that the majority of people

:40:52.:40:54.

came to this country in the last two years and were not from the EU,

:40:55.:40:56.

asylum seekers are tiny percentage of the people that come to this

:40:57.:41:00.

country, we have total control over this. This is a debate about the EU.

:41:01.:41:08.

Membership of the EU. Most of the migrants come here from outside the

:41:09.:41:13.

EU. The public ride in broad sense to feel like we have been ripped

:41:14.:41:18.

off? People think they have been told things will work for us but not

:41:19.:41:23.

here? The vast majority of the working classes, a skilled and

:41:24.:41:28.

semiskilled and unskilled, feel no benefit whatsoever from the

:41:29.:41:32.

recovery. Our economy might well be the best in Europe and one of the

:41:33.:41:36.

best in the world but the recovery is incredibly fragile, we still have

:41:37.:41:40.

a huge national debt and the national deficit is growing, not

:41:41.:41:48.

shrinking. If mass immigration is so good for the economy, why are people

:41:49.:41:51.

struggling for jobs in this country in certain areas? What is

:41:52.:41:57.

interesting is Trevor from the sun is quite close to where you are in

:41:58.:42:03.

the Guardian although you focus on the British elite and you focus on

:42:04.:42:10.

the EU elite. This referendum is not one that anyone particularly wanted

:42:11.:42:14.

to have, the question is not one the voters are opposing, if you talk

:42:15.:42:19.

about the Lisbon Treaty or the European Central Bank, they say, why

:42:20.:42:24.

have no wages not gone up and when can make it scuttled the housing

:42:25.:42:28.

ladder? They have their own answers and they try to squeeze them into

:42:29.:42:31.

this binary of in or out. I completely agree with Isabel about

:42:32.:42:37.

immigration, it has been wave after wave of broken promises, everything

:42:38.:42:41.

from Iraq to the boom were meant to be going through to what was meant

:42:42.:42:45.

to replace the industrialisation in places like the Northeast and Wales.

:42:46.:42:50.

Let us finish on Labour, he started on the Conservatives. In many

:42:51.:42:55.

respects, this is turning out to be a very big problem for Labour.

:42:56.:43:01.

Labour is the weak link. It is the leadership of Jeremy Corbyn that is

:43:02.:43:05.

a problem. Really, this referendum is going to the wire because of

:43:06.:43:10.

Jeremy Corbyn and he is a disastrous leader who cannot get his supporters

:43:11.:43:13.

are to support Remain. At the start of the campaign Labour MPs were

:43:14.:43:17.

worried about the lack of enthusiasm for turning photo site but I was

:43:18.:43:21.

talking to some of the last few weeks who said you don't necessarily

:43:22.:43:24.

want voters to come out because they will Vote Leave, we would rather

:43:25.:43:28.

they stayed in bed and that is not just Jeremy Corbyn. This is an

:43:29.:43:33.

institutional Labour problem. That they have not addressed for years

:43:34.:43:36.

and some of them are starting to worry this could be the party's

:43:37.:43:41.

Scottish problem, they were warned about a problem with the

:43:42.:43:43.

nationalists and they never really addressed it. They are doing the

:43:44.:43:48.

same immigration. Suddenly, something happens that they cannot

:43:49.:43:53.

control which is a referendum in which they are on the wrong side.

:43:54.:43:58.

You are looking at the kind of slowed death of Labour, South Wales,

:43:59.:44:06.

the Northeast. But you also looking at a disintegration of the liberal

:44:07.:44:09.

mainstream and both parties because represents that but also the wing of

:44:10.:44:15.

the Dutch are right of Labour MPs and there is no currency in being a

:44:16.:44:21.

mainstream centrist politician, all the hot money goes to the polls of

:44:22.:44:27.

the political debate. Are the centrist ones in the Tory party and

:44:28.:44:31.

Labour Party, might they say we have got a lot of common with each other?

:44:32.:44:36.

We disagree on everything expect the simple fact is, the question of

:44:37.:44:40.

immigration has affected Labour voters in a way in which has been

:44:41.:44:44.

undeniable except in the Labour Party. We need to leave it there.

:44:45.:44:46.

Well, that is it from us for tonight, and from

:44:47.:44:49.

We are not here tomorrow - but we will all be watching

:44:50.:44:53.

the results programme on BBC One which starts at 9.55pm.

:44:54.:44:55.

Emily will be there, as well as David Dimbleby.

:44:56.:44:57.

I will be back in this chair on Friday,

:44:58.:44:59.

Thunderstorms have already bought some intense downpours across parts

:45:00.:45:21.

of Sussex and Kent this evenly and an Amber Warning in force from the

:45:22.:45:24.

edge that Office means there is potential for further disruptive

:45:25.:45:25.

downpours in

:45:26.:45:26.

Download Subtitles

SRT

ASS