01/07/2016 Newsnight

I do not think it would be right for me to try to be the captain that

steers the country to its next destination. When you voted leave,

was it about the EU, was it about change of any kind? Or was it about

something I haven't mentioned? Is everything. Right. I no longer had

confidence in his leadership. I feel that I've served in the best way I

can. Today at Westminster in the last few minutes there are more

labour resignations, three Shadow ministers... Get an election and he

will get in. And I thought I was having a bad

day! You were fighting for the exit. The British people voted in favour

of the exit. My pitch is very simple, I'm Theresa May and I think

I'm the best person to be Prime Minister of this country. I'm really

sorry to interrupt, just hearing that Michael Gove is preparing to

announce his candidacy as well. What is your to Michael Gove?

That person cannot be me. I came reluctantly but firmly to the

conclusion that I should stand and Boris should stand aside. I cannot,

unfortunately, get on with doing what I want to do, so it will be up

to someone else now. I wish them every possible success.

For once, the cliches seem almost inadequate.

It really was a political earthquake.

We really are in uncharted waters and we really do have no

So, the search for clarity, and maybe even some

And while it's a little previous to suggest that

much dust has settled, a week has now passed

since the Referendum result was revealed, so we have,

at least, had some time to consider its possible ramifications.

Time now, then, obviously, for a poll examining where we were,

where we are and where we think we might be going with Brexit.

It's thrown up a few surprises and some rather bad news for anyone

hoping that they'd seen the back of the ballot box for a while...

Have you had enough of voting yet? Apparently not. In fact almost half

of voters's polls said Britain should hold another general election

before the UK starts to negotiate Brexit, so that each party can set

out its own vision for life outside the EU. And maybe this is why. 59%

told us they were not confident in Britain's political leaders getting

the best possible Brexit deal for Britain. That rises to 76% of Remain

voters. And what about buyers remorse? Those voters who supposedly

want to change their minds. They do not. 92% of respondents said they

would definitely vote the same way. But of them, 5% of And voters said

they would now change their vote, compared to just 2% of Remain

voters. And finally, imagine if this all just went away. More than a

third of voters said they think it might. They don't know if Britain

will actually leave the EU and 16% in the UK will actively defied the

Brexit vote and find a way to stay in.

Of course, that's only part of the post-Ref picture.

The real action is unfolding at Westminster where just

about everything is up for grabs on both sides of the House.

To provide a measure of the mayhem, no pun intended, you could probably

argue tonight that the Parliamentary party which didn't want a leadership

battle is having one while the Parliamentary party that

desperately does want one, isn't.

Newsnight's political editor, Nick Watt, is filling his boots.

Nick, you have found out about a plan to help ease Jeremy Corbyn out

of the door? Yes, all the signs from the Shadow Chancellor today John

McDonald work that Jeremy Corbyn is not going anywhere and he's going to

stay. But I understand there was a delegation of Shadow Cabinet

ministers yesterday who tried and failed to meet Jeremy Corbyn to

suggest a plan to allow him to resign with dignity. They were

suggesting that a commission could be set up over the summer and that

would in trench some of his ideas about how you democratise the Labour

Party and would also push on the party to commit to some of his core

policies on inequality. If that could happen and some of the

leadership contenders could agree to that, he would perhaps pre-announced

his retirement and he would go after the Labour conference. What is

really interesting about this is that people like John McDonald are

very wary of this because they are scared that the moment he gives up

the power, that is it for the left. But I understand that some members

on the left who were in that room last year when his candidacy was

approved that they thought with great reluctance and sadness that

this may be the wise thing to do because they fear that the party

could divide. I hesitate to ask, but more bad news for the Labour leader

tonight? Yes, an interesting YouGov poll of Unite members, whose general

secretary is one of Jeremy Corbyn's most ardent supporters and this

shows that 75% of people who voted Labour in the general election last

year believe that Jeremy Corbyn will not be Prime Minister. It wouldn't

surprise me if Jeremy Corbyn's opponent in the Labour Party picked

up on this to challenge one of his central arguments. That Central

argue it is, I may not have any support at Westminster but I do have

support in the wider labour movement. Important health warning,

election day to admit that YouGov were not able to do the full waiting

you would normally expect because they do not know the full and exact

demographic breakdown of Unite members. But we shouldn't forget

that there is a contest to choose the next Prime Minister of this

country, so what I thought I would do is take a look at how that is

going and also see how the front runner, to reason may, is getting

on. Who would have believed it? The

plodder of the Cabinet who issues the political gossip and the party

circuit is emerging as the front runner in the Tory leadership

contest. She brings to her work eight professionalism, dedication

and hard work, a willingness to confront difficult problems, and

that may be in great measure due to the fact that she is a woman. Which

is probably a positive at the present time in my view in terms of

our national politics. There is an unmistakable buzz around the Home

Secretary and her rivals are concerned. 36 hours ago, Boris

Johnson appeared to be the slam dunk candidate in the Tory leadership

contest. After his former friend Michael Gove ended his lifetime's

ambition to be Prime Minister, the question tonight is whether the

Theresa May juggernaut is unstoppable. Like it or not, Theresa

May is now defining this leadership contest and even influencing wider

government policy. It's incredibly important we maintain fiscal

credibility... George Osborne indicated today that he would

abandon his plan to achieve an overall budget surplus, a day after

the Home Secretary said she would do just that. And at his campaign

launch, Michael Gove had his sights set on Theresa May when he said that

the next Prime Minister must be a Brexit supporter. But Michael Gove

knows he has too overcome the perception that he is guilty of a

double act of treachery against two old friends, David Cameron and Boris

Johnson. As we see here today, you have to conclude that it looks as

though he has gone over the Reichenbach falls with Boris

Johnson, taken him over the falls but done some damage to his own

reputation. He's now gone down into the marketplace and has been

swinging punches like the rest of them. Fans of the Justice Secretary

say he has the brains and personal touch to make it. He is a powerhouse

of a man, an intellectual I've known for 30 years, I've watched him

develop. He's a radical reformer and a man who has always led his

politics by conviction. He's the one who persuaded me to in politics. He

has the same vision for our country that I do, which is that we can

really bring everyone together. But momentum appears to be building up

behind Andrei led ' -- Andrea Ledsom. Perhaps she

could become the main leadership challenger to Theresa May. William

Hague was a religiously junior figure in 1997. Iain Duncan Smith

had been a Maastricht rebel. So Andrea Ledsom could come from the

outside to give Theresa May a run for her money. Some of Theresa May's

supporters hope this contest could be over by next week. They are no

others that if this goes to the second stage, decided by grassroots

Tory members, the support for the Remain side could count against her.

The main test for Theresa May is whether or not she could persuade

that Tory members should elect her when she was four Remain Ulster and

the majority evidence was that a majority of them were four Leave.

British politics is being refashioned right in front of our

eyes. But even in the middle of a revolution, perhaps it will be the

steadiest member of the crew who will guide us to the next stage.

The one in Burnley next where, you'll recall, we canvassed

the immediate post-Vote feelings pretty comprehensively.

Will feuding friends forgive and forget?

In a moment, Nick Blakemore will find out, but first a quick

reminder of how this particular patch of Lancastrian land lay last

I'm over the moon. I don't know what to say. We did it! Is everybody woke

up in time. Everybody listened. Everybody understands. Yes it's

going to be rough at the beginning, but... We've done it.

Just to warn you, you may hear some strong language in the background of

Nick's film. We've got to work together to make

this work. It's like anything, you either go for it or you are left

behind. We are all in the same boat. We now move forward. We are not

Leave and Remain, we are united kingdom. No, we are Leave, we've

left. We have to remember that a large proportion of this country

voted Remain. This time we will just carry on. As

it were. We just want people to know that England is not an easy touch.

You know what I mean? You can't just come here and take, take, take. To

enjoy the advantages of this country, you have to contribute.

It's as simple as that. Wider you think we voted for leave? Tired of

paying out for people who think it's a career option to just be a dosser

and get a council house and take, take, take. We are all hard working

men and that's what we're sick of. I actually voted In last week. The

reason was because... I just feel that Britain has a massive role to

play in the European Union and it doesn't make sense for me to come

out of that. I'm a second-generation Italian, so my mum and dad came over

here. What I think the biggest thing is that... I was born here but all

my friends around here have no issue whatsoever with any foreign people

coming to this country, because, as long as the foreign people that come

here contribute, that is the main thing. The biggest problem this

country has is foreign people who come over here and grab off the

state, that is the biggest issue. I did, yeah, definitely. I voted

Leave, which the majority of people round here did. I'm not sure if it

were the right thing all the wrong thing, we will soon find out. People

are making laws now that we don't even vote on. That's my biggest

gripe. I would definitely say that we've seen a decline in our living

standards, especially in the north-west. The North of England. I

have family who live down south, like Basingstoke, and you go down

there and it's like a different country. We talk about what's

happened down south compared to us in the north-west, but if you think

about it, we have a say on where that money goes. I would say to

anyone who is annoyed about this referendum, annoyed that we voted to

leave and they voted to remain, get involved in politics right now

because right now it's the biggest change you can make. I would say

that if that is going to be a left wing ever again, they've got to

realise that they're not the super Internet legend people that they

think they are. They have to respect the voice of normal working people.

-- super intelligent. I see the pros and cons, either way,

to be honest with you, I think, putting it bluntly, we are going to

get screwed, either way! Joining me now is the

novelist Kazuo Ishiguro. Japanese-born, raised in Surrey and,

as the author of The Remains of the Day, the man responsible

for a lyrical evocation of interwar England so powerful and convincing

that it won the Booker Prize Kazuo, I mention those

three parts of your past because they paint you,

perhaps, as a literary poster boy for a multi-cultural,

integrated Britain. Yet you write in today's

Financial Times of your fears that that Britain may be

under mortal threat. Mortal threat may be putting it

melodramatically but I think this is very serious, in my whole life time

here, I have never felt this anxious... The nation is bitterly

divided. It is leaderless, it is very anxious. If I was a strategist

for the far right now, I would be getting very excited, this is

probably the best opportunities in the 1930s to push Britain towards

some kind of neo-Nazi racism, and I think that we have got to... All the

decent people in this country, and I mean people on both sides of the

referendum divide, they have got to rally around some kind of decent

heart of Britain, and I think that's decent heart... I do not doubt it.

Grimm Tales this week. I was shaken, I was a firm remained person, and I

was shaken, like a lot of people. -- grim tales. -- Remain person. I have

faith about the essential decency of this country, speaking as someone

who grew up as the only visible foreigner at school, the only

foreign boy at school, the only foreign kid in the gimme nitty, over

the years I have lived in various parts of Britain, where very large

numbers of immigrants came from the Asian subcontinent, the Caribbean,

West Africa, during a time of enormous economic turmoil in the

1970s and 1980s, people like the national front and the BNP have

never gained a whole. Just as it was in the first half of the 20th

century, basically, and I can tell from my perspective, I can tell you

everything I know about this country, it is essentially a very

decent, tolerance country, it does racism very badly, even worse than

football! LAUGHTER When fascism was rampaging across

Europe, in the first of the 20th century, it could not get a foothold

here. But, I think... We should not be complacent now. The country does

need... The decent part of the country needs something to rally

around. Let's identify what that is, plenty of people will be watching

this, as you refer to in your piece, who wanted to leave the European

Union, and will be just as haunted by this spectre as anybody on the

Remain side, it is a challenge to separate the toxicity which seems to

have been emboldened by the result and the people who will be just as

alarmed by that emboldening as any DLs, how can we do that? I believe

that the majority of people who voted leave are not racist, some

are. -- as anybody else. At a local level, I would like to see some kind

of campaign declaration, a petition, I cannot do it, I am from the

Remain, I would like them to clearly say that they are against xenophobia

and racism that is threatening to take over. Have you experienced any?

No, just reading, a lot of people are anxious, we have heard reports

of... Things that were not acceptable seeming to be acceptable

now. People being told to go home. It is at that level at the moment. I

do not know how deep it goes, I would like to see the people from

the leave camp clearly isolate the racists by saying, this is not us. I

would even offer them a slogan, "Leave Racism", with a hashtag as

well. Everything needs that this -- these days. I would like to see

another referendum, we need a new mandate about what kind of Brexit we

are going to go for, for the new Prime Minister, whoever it is. We

need some kind of discussion. You have pulled the pin on the second

referendum grenade, just as our time together comes to an end, we will

have to leave it there, thank you very much joining us. -- thank you

very much for joining us. Of course, the referendum

shockwaves reach much further And few countries have been

watching events here more One of the original architects

of the Common Market and, of course, long a historical obstacle

to the UK's membership, the country today hosts a growing

strain of Gallic Euroscepticism and may be developing

an appetite for what has Newsnight's Gabriel Gatehouse has

been taking a breath of French air to find out how events on this side

of the Channel have I always wanted Britain to be

part of European dreams. VOICEOVER: It may look

like life as normal. But make no mistake,

Brexit was an earthquake. I was like, no, no!

You can't do that! On the side of the far right,

it has come as a divine surprise. because as a disease

it is very profound. In the run-up to the referendum,

Newsnight met George Bertrand, one of the founding fathers

of the European Union. The results for Britain

are extremely complex But it is not only a domestic issue,

but as it concerns us too. Mr Bertrand played a prominent role

in shepherding Britain We consider Britain

as an exceptional country. As itself, the role it

has played in two wars, the way democratic

life was developed... At the same time, we were absolutely

aware that Europe without The English Parliamentary tradition

has a very positive influence an unpopular centre-left

government is trying to force through reforms

to the labour code. The French,

of course, are no strangers to this kind

of labour protest. is a flight from the centre

to the left and to the right. On the left, they see the EU as part

of a neoliberal project which they blame for austerity,

inequality and rising unemployment. And yet even here, some

are dismayed by Brexit. It's shit, but we can't,

as we say in French, The baby out with the bath water.

Yes, we can't do that. In France, discontent

with the political The chief beneficiaries are not

on the left but on the right. The Front National was once a fringe

movement, the preserve of ageing

ex-colonialists bitter Like the left, young FN supporters

rail against globalisation, but for them, Brexit

is a cause for celebration. Polls suggest that the

Front National could win The polls also show a rise

in Eurosceptic sentiment. And the Front National leader,

Marine Le Pen, has promised It's the same cocktail

than for the Brexit. Anti-immigrant feeling,

because it's an open door to immigration,

refugees and possibly terrorism, so the second

issue is insecurity, And the third idea is anti-elites,

the idea that the people who govern us, they are so far away,

they don't understand In a country with a proud,

democratic tradition, Sure, they can vote for a choice

of parties and politicians, in a language they no

longer understand. In corridors of power across Europe,

politicians, the centrist establishment, the people

who by and large have governed this continent since the end

of the Second World War, are suddenly realising that

for a whole variety of different reasons, vast swathes

of their electorate simply don't believe

in them any more. It's not that the centrists aren't

aware of the problem, they are. They just don't seem to know

what to do about it. People have a sense

that they are losing the control the arrival of huge companies

from the other side of the world, You are losing control

of the economy, you are losing control of the people

coming into your nation. A lot of poor whites consider

they are losing money, they are paying money

for the newcomers. And I sense this anger all over

the country here in France. that has no impact on these

issues but you know, Because of lack of

courage, essentially. For some, Brexit presents

an opportunity for renewal. For others, it is a dangerous

gamble. I'm angry because we are putting our

respective security In spite of the economic and social

divisions in Europe, we are the most balanced

part of the world. The most human part

of the world, the most socially-advanced

in the world. Lose by 4% of the vote

in a General Election and you find yourself in strong Opposition

with a fighting chance of halting legislation

and embarrassing the Government. Win 48% of the vote in a Referendum

and you find yourself Politically your position is,

in many ways, no stronger With all the Conservative leadership

candidates now fully committed to Brexit and the winner of course

guaranteed to govern, what will Some suggest we're approaching

a fundamental redrawing of traditional party politics

but few are prepared to predict Joining me now to survey

the scene are... The journalist and broadcaster Paul

Mason, The Times columnist Phil Collins, and adviser to Nick Clegg,

Polly McKenzie. I would like to begin by asking you a

very simple question, who is in the biggest mess at the moment, the

Conservatives or the Labour Party? Polly, I will start with you?

Probably the Labour Party, because at least the Conservatives have a

process which will get them to a leader they will all be happy with.

Whereas the Labour Party, frankly, this could go on for months or even

years. The Conservative Party's mess is more important because they are

visiting it on the rest of us, on the country. Their mess is more

important in that sense, but the bigger mess if it weren't for that

important fact is the Labour Party, which is facing the prospect it

might not even exist soon. An existential threat to the Labour

Party, Paul Mason? I noticed your political editor, comprehensibility

was on the inside sources at Westminster said there had been tout

-- omitted that there had been thousands of people on the streets

tonight supporting Jeremy Corbyn. What you've seen is the equivalent

of the Haka before the rugby match. If the rugby match actually kicks

off, it could get brutal. I'm a Labour member and I voted Remain. We

need to find a way to DS can it. These young central MPs have no idea

what an actual struggle inside the labour movement looks like. Those of

us who saw the miners strike and have seen what people are getting

for right now fear... It is, it won't disappear. However, it may

seriously split. Who speaks for you at the moment, politically? As a

Corbyn friendly Remainer? Jeremy Corbyn. He is speaking but we, the

wider Labour family, have to find some way of de-escalate think this

and focusing on the policies. The fact is, Corbyn and John McDonnell

have scored a fantastic success this week, knocking George Osborne away

from his fiscal rule. I would be arguing for investment tax and

spending to boost investment. That all needs to happen but of course

it's going to Canon straight into the Brexit negotiations. We need

both parties to be on the ball and thinking in a interest and national

interested way. Phil Collins, the credit for the fiscal retreat of

George Osborne being handed to Jeremy Corbyn and John McDonnell. I

will let you respond to that in a second. I'm also interested in the

notion of Jeremy Corbyn beating for Labour remainders, while Remainers

in the main laying him for the Brexit. Which I think is very harsh.

There is a lot more in the vote to leave the European Union than could

have been solved by Jeremy Corbyn. I don't think it helps to blame him.

He was a pretty lukewarm advocate for it but that's because he was not

very good. Not because he had a particular bad day, he was as good

as he can be, which is not very good at all. Scientists say of a bad

theory, it's not even wrong. It's not even wrong to suggest that

Jeremy Corbyn and John McDonnell 's art claiming the credit for George

Osborne changing the rule, he has changed the rule because the country

has had a massive economic shock and we're going to come out of the

European Union. It's perfectly normal in politics to claim your

opponent's shifts. Are we looking at something more different than the

fundamental -- more fundamental than the squabbling and shifts which to

defy your world? There is no one who represents the 48% who voted for

Remain. We don't even have a mandate for a government to negotiate our

Brexit. As we were hearing earlier, we don't know what kind of Brexit we

want. And economically sensible EEA one or we just cut ourselves off and

float in the Atlantic? No one has a mandate to make that decision. What

would that realignment look like? At the moment, God only knows. There is

this growth in the Liberal Democrats but with only eight MPs it's hard to

see Tim Farron... Tim Farron has committed to a manifesto that would

involve doing everything possible to get back into the EU. I feel very

strongly represented by that but they only have eight MPs and it's

hard to see that being enough to build a new centre party. It's

possible that a break could come if Jeremy Corbyn digs in and if he is

challenged and he wins again and the 172 Labour MPs in Parliament who

have declared no confidence in him declare themselves a new party,

that's not beyond the balance of possibility at the moment. We are

closer perhaps than we've ever been before. I'm not sure it's a great

solution or a great outcome but that is entirely feasible. Have we found

something on which you can all agree, Paul Mason, that a

fundamental realignment might well be on the horizon? I think centrist

politics, which wants to rejoin the European Union after this,

proactively rejoin the European Union, would have to be a new party.

Neither the Conservatives nor Labour are going to do that, as parties.

But I think there is a problem for centrist politics. Full

they are going to be called upon to act in the national interests in a

way they are not used to defining. Watch it happen right now is they

should -- we should/ business tax and boost business investment. The

more we do that, the people across the table from us at the Brexit

negotiations are going to say hold on, this is unfair competition,

please withdraw your tax cut in order to get back into the EEA. I

favour going into the EEA and I also favour doing rapid tax cuts to boost

investment. We need a political class used to doing this sort of

thing but they are not used it, they are used to 40 plus years

multilateralism that they triggered the breakdown of. Most importantly,

there isn't anybody to make those decisions. We've had this

unbelievably hectic week in British politics but actually we have no

more clarity one week on about what on earth we're going to do next.

It's that complete vacuum, whatever negotiating strategy we adopt, the

truth is we have to start doing something because all across Europe

and especially in Brussels, people are planning for how to negotiate

this in their interests and not in ours. We have a cabinet team of

three people thinking about this. It is a mandate to leave the European

Union. How big a part do you think that will play in the Conservative

candidate battle? Will they be putting forward rival visions of

Brexit or just trying to win the party faithful in the normal way?

The overwhelming favourite, Theresa May, voted Remain. I suppose nobly

would have predicted that but no blonde would have predicted anything

this time last week. It does appear she is moving ahead. As we said in

the introduction, everyone is committed to an exit but I don't

think any of them have the first idea what it means, yet. If they do

put forward plans, they will be very meagre plans indeed. Paul Mason?

Hello? I beg your pardon, Paul, I was expecting you to respond to what

Philip said. Yes, look, what is amazing at the moment is the fact

that all the political class cannot utter the words that we have uttered

on this discussion, EEA, European economic area. It is the obvious

solution, to apply for it and design a variation on free movement, ask

for the emergency brake you can get and then go from there. You may not

get it but it's logical to go for that. What frustrates me on all

sides of Parliament is that people are not afraid to do that and that

is because the party machinery is fractured. Many thanks indeed. That

is almost all we have time for tonight. Just a bit of time left for

me to jump on a rather wonderful belch

-- a rather wonderful Welsh bandwagon.