Browse content similar to 22/06/2014. Check below for episodes and series from the same categories and more!
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Morning folks. Welcome to the Sunday Politics. | :00:33. | :00:36. | |
Welfare reform is one of the government's most popular policies. | :00:37. | :00:39. | |
So Labour says it would be even tougher than the Tories. | :00:40. | :00:42. | |
We'll be asking the Shadow Work and Pensions Secretary if she's got | :00:43. | :00:46. | |
Even Labour supporters worry that Ed Miliband hasn't got what it takes | :00:47. | :00:53. | |
Labour grandees are increasingly vocal about their concerns. | :00:54. | :00:58. | |
Over 50% of Labour voters think they'd do better with a new leader. | :00:59. | :01:04. | |
And what of this leader, he's apparently toxic on the doorstep. | :01:05. | :01:07. | |
The polls say Nick Clegg's more unpopular than Gordon Brown | :01:08. | :01:10. | |
We'll be asking a former Lib Dem leader, what is to be done? | :01:11. | :01:16. | |
Coming up on Sunday Politics Scotland. | :01:17. | :01:18. | |
The latest analysis of setup costs for an independent state, we'll talk | :01:19. | :01:22. | |
to Professor Dunleavy who says March 2016 may be unrealistic. | :01:23. | :01:37. | |
promised an electric car revolution, why so little progress? | :01:38. | :01:39. | |
Nick Watt, Helen Lewis and Janan Ganesh, the toxic tweeters | :01:40. | :01:46. | |
First, the deepening crisis in Iraq, where Sunni Islamists are now | :01:47. | :01:54. | |
largely in control of the Syrian-Iraq border, which means | :01:55. | :01:56. | |
they can now re-supply their forces in Iraq from their Syrian bases. | :01:57. | :02:03. | |
Rather than moving on Baghdad, they are for the moment consolidating | :02:04. | :02:05. | |
their grip on the towns and cities they've already taken. | :02:06. | :02:08. | |
They also seem to be in effective control of Iraq's | :02:09. | :02:10. | |
biggest oil refinery, which supplies the capital. | :02:11. | :02:14. | |
And there are reports they might now have taken the power | :02:15. | :02:16. | |
Iraqi politicians are now admitting that ISIS, | :02:17. | :02:23. | |
the name of the Sunni insurgents, is better trained, better equipped and | :02:24. | :02:26. | |
far more battle-hardened than the US-trained Iraqi army fighting it. | :02:27. | :02:32. | |
Which leaves the fate of Baghdad increasingly in the hands | :02:33. | :02:34. | |
No good news coming out of there, Janan. No good news and no good | :02:35. | :02:52. | |
options either. The West's best strategy is to decide how much | :02:53. | :02:56. | |
support to give to the Iraqi government. The US is sending over | :02:57. | :03:01. | |
about 275 military personnel. Do they go further and contemplate | :03:02. | :03:04. | |
their support? General Petraeus argued against it as it might be | :03:05. | :03:10. | |
seen as the US serving as the force of Shia Iraqis -- continue their | :03:11. | :03:16. | |
support. Do we contemplate breaking up Iraq? It won't be easy. The Sunni | :03:17. | :03:25. | |
and Shia Muslim populations don't live in clearly bordered areas, but | :03:26. | :03:28. | |
in the longer term, do we deal with it in the same way we dealt with the | :03:29. | :03:32. | |
break-up of the Ottoman empire over 100 years ago? In the short-term and | :03:33. | :03:37. | |
long-term, completely confounding. Quite humiliating. If ISIS take | :03:38. | :03:44. | |
Baghdad I can't think of a bigger ignominy for foreign policy since | :03:45. | :03:50. | |
Suez. If Iraq is partitioned, it won't be up to us. It will be what | :03:51. | :03:54. | |
is happening because of what is happening on the ground. Everything | :03:55. | :04:00. | |
does point to partition, and that border, which ISIS control, between | :04:01. | :04:06. | |
Syria and Iraq, that has been there since it was drawn during the First | :04:07. | :04:11. | |
World War. That is gone as well. An astonishingly humbling situation the | :04:12. | :04:14. | |
West, and you can see the Kurds in the North think this is a charge -- | :04:15. | :04:23. | |
chance for authority. They think this is the chance to get the | :04:24. | :04:26. | |
autonomy they felt they deserved a long time. Janan is right. We can't | :04:27. | :04:32. | |
do much in the long term, but we have to decide on the engagement. | :04:33. | :04:36. | |
And the other people wish you'd be talking turkey, because if there is | :04:37. | :04:39. | |
some blowback and the fighters come back, they are likely to come back | :04:40. | :04:44. | |
from Turkey. Where is Iran in all of this? There were reports last week | :04:45. | :04:49. | |
that the Revolutionary guard, the head of it, he was already in | :04:50. | :04:52. | |
Baghdad with 67 advisers and there might have been some brigades that | :04:53. | :04:57. | |
have gone there as well. Where are they? What has happened? I'm pretty | :04:58. | :05:02. | |
sure the Prime Minister of Iraq is putting more faith in Iran than the | :05:03. | :05:13. | |
White House and the British. I think they are running the show, in | :05:14. | :05:17. | |
technical terms. John Kerry is flying into Cairo this morning, and | :05:18. | :05:21. | |
what is his message? It is twofold. One is to Arab countries, do more to | :05:22. | :05:25. | |
encourage an inclusive government in Iraq, mainly Sunni Muslims in the | :05:26. | :05:30. | |
government, and the Arab Gulf states should stop funding insurgents in | :05:31. | :05:35. | |
Iraq. You think, Iraq, it's potentially going to break up, so | :05:36. | :05:41. | |
this sounds a bit late in the day and a bit weak. It gets | :05:42. | :05:44. | |
fundamentally to the problem, what can we do? Niall Ferguson has a big | :05:45. | :05:48. | |
piece in the Sunday Times asking if this is place where we cannot doing | :05:49. | :05:52. | |
anything. He doesn't want to do anything. By the way, that is what | :05:53. | :05:57. | |
most Americans think. That is what opinion polls are showing. You have | :05:58. | :06:02. | |
George Osborne Michael Gold who would love to get involved but they | :06:03. | :06:06. | |
cannot because of the vote in parliament on Syria lasted -- George | :06:07. | :06:09. | |
Osborne and Michael Gove. This government does not have the stomach | :06:10. | :06:14. | |
for military intervention. We will see how events unfold on the ground. | :06:15. | :06:17. | |
All parties are agreed that Britain's 60-year old multi-billion | :06:18. | :06:20. | |
The Tory side of the Coalition think their reforms are necessary | :06:21. | :06:25. | |
and popular, though they haven't always gone to time or to plan. | :06:26. | :06:28. | |
In the eight months she's had since she became Shadow Secretary of State | :06:29. | :06:32. | |
for Work and Pensions, Rachel Reeves has talked the talk about getting | :06:33. | :06:39. | |
people off benefits, into work and lowering the overall welfare bill. | :06:40. | :06:42. | |
her first interview in the job she threatened "We would | :06:43. | :06:44. | |
But Labour has opposed just about every change the Coalition | :06:45. | :06:48. | |
has proposed to cut the cost and change the culture of welfare. | :06:49. | :06:52. | |
Child benefit, housing benefit, the ?26,000 benefit cap - | :06:53. | :06:55. | |
They've been lukewarm about the government's flagship Universal | :06:56. | :07:01. | |
Credit scheme - which rolls six benefit payments into one - and | :07:02. | :07:04. | |
And Labour has set out only two modest welfare cuts. | :07:05. | :07:12. | |
This week, Labour said young people must have skills or be in training | :07:13. | :07:15. | |
That will save ?65 million, says Labour, though the cost | :07:16. | :07:20. | |
And cutting winter fuel payments for richer pensioners which will | :07:21. | :07:26. | |
Not a lot in a total welfare bill of around ?200 billion. | :07:27. | :07:34. | |
And with welfare cuts popular among even Labour voters, they will soon | :07:35. | :07:36. | |
have to start spelling out exactly what Labour welfare reform means. | :07:37. | :07:43. | |
Welcome. Good morning. Why do you want to be tougher than the Tories? | :07:44. | :07:56. | |
We want to be tough in getting the welfare bill down. Under this | :07:57. | :08:00. | |
government, the bill will be ?13 million more than the government set | :08:01. | :08:03. | |
out in 2010 and I don't think that is acceptable. We should try to | :08:04. | :08:08. | |
control the cost of Social Security. But the welfare bill under the next | :08:09. | :08:12. | |
Labour government will fall? It will be smaller when you end the first | :08:13. | :08:16. | |
parliament than when you started? We signed up to the capping welfare but | :08:17. | :08:20. | |
that doesn't see social security costs ball, it sees them go up in | :08:21. | :08:26. | |
line with with inflation or average earnings -- costs fall. So where | :08:27. | :08:31. | |
flair will rise? We have signed up to the cap -- welfare will rise? We | :08:32. | :08:36. | |
have signed up to the cap. We will get the costs under control and they | :08:37. | :08:40. | |
haven't managed to achieve it. The government is spending ?13 billion | :08:41. | :08:43. | |
more on Social Security and the reason they are doing it is because | :08:44. | :08:49. | |
the minimum wage has not kept pace with the cost of living so people | :08:50. | :08:52. | |
are reliant on tax credits. They are not building houses and people are | :08:53. | :08:56. | |
relying on housing benefit. We have a record number of people on zero | :08:57. | :09:02. | |
hours contracts. I'm still not clear if you will cut welfare if you get | :09:03. | :09:06. | |
in power. Nobody is saying that the cost of welfare is going to fall. | :09:07. | :09:12. | |
The welfare cap sees that happening gradually. That is a Tory cap. And | :09:13. | :09:17. | |
you've accepted it. You're being the same as the Tories, not to. If they | :09:18. | :09:25. | |
had a welfare cap, they would have breached it in every year of the | :09:26. | :09:28. | |
parliament. Social Security will be higher than the government set out | :09:29. | :09:33. | |
because they failed to control it. You read the polls, and the party | :09:34. | :09:36. | |
does lots of its own polling, and you're scared of being seen as the | :09:37. | :09:40. | |
welfare party. You don't really believe all of this anti-welfare | :09:41. | :09:46. | |
stuff? We are the party of work, not welfare. The Labour Party was set up | :09:47. | :09:49. | |
in the first place because we believe in the dignity of work and | :09:50. | :09:51. | |
we believe that work should pay wages can afford to live on. I make | :09:52. | :09:55. | |
no apologies for being the party of work. We are not the welfare party, | :09:56. | :10:00. | |
we are the party of work. Even your confidential strategy document | :10:01. | :10:05. | |
admits that voters don't trust you on immigration, the economy, this is | :10:06. | :10:08. | |
your own people, and welfare. You are not trusted on it. The most | :10:09. | :10:13. | |
recent poll showed Labour slightly ahead of the Conservative Party on | :10:14. | :10:16. | |
Social Security, probably because they have seen the incompetence and | :10:17. | :10:21. | |
chaos at the Department for Work and Pensions under Iain Duncan Smith. | :10:22. | :10:25. | |
Your own internal document means that the voters don't trust you on | :10:26. | :10:31. | |
welfare reform. That is why we have shown some of this tough things we | :10:32. | :10:34. | |
will do like the announcement that Ed Miliband made earlier this week, | :10:35. | :10:39. | |
that young people without basic qualifications won't be entitled to | :10:40. | :10:43. | |
just sign on for benefits, they have to sign up for training in order to | :10:44. | :10:46. | |
receive support. That is the right thing to do by that group of young | :10:47. | :10:49. | |
people, because they need skills to progress. We will, once that. -- we | :10:50. | :10:59. | |
will, onto that. You say you criticise the government that it had | :11:00. | :11:04. | |
a cap and wouldn't have met it, but every money-saving welfare reform, | :11:05. | :11:08. | |
you voted against it. How is that being tougher? The most recent bout | :11:09. | :11:15. | |
was the cap on overall welfare expenditure, and we went through the | :11:16. | :11:19. | |
lobbies and voted for the Tories. You voted against the benefit cap, | :11:20. | :11:24. | |
welfare rating, you voted against, child benefit schemes, you voted | :11:25. | :11:29. | |
against. You can't say we voted against everything when we voted | :11:30. | :11:31. | |
with the Conservatives in the most recent bill with a cap on Social | :11:32. | :11:35. | |
Security. It's just not correct to say. The last time we voted, we | :11:36. | :11:43. | |
walked through the lobby with them. You voted on the principle of the | :11:44. | :11:49. | |
cap. You voted on every step that would allow the cap to be met. Every | :11:50. | :11:54. | |
single one. The most recent vote was not on the principle of the cap, it | :11:55. | :11:58. | |
was on a cap of Social Security in the next Parliament and we signed up | :11:59. | :12:01. | |
for that. It was Ed Miliband who called her that earlier on. Which | :12:02. | :12:05. | |
welfare reform did you vote for? We voted for the cap. Other than that? | :12:06. | :12:12. | |
We have supported universal credit. You voted against it in the third | :12:13. | :12:17. | |
reading. We voted against some of the specifics. If you look at | :12:18. | :12:22. | |
universal credit, they have had to write off nearly ?900 million of | :12:23. | :12:27. | |
spending. I'm not on the rights and wrongs, I'm trying to work out what | :12:28. | :12:31. | |
you voted for. Some of the things we are going to go further than the | :12:32. | :12:34. | |
government with. For example, cutting benefits for young people | :12:35. | :12:40. | |
who don't sign of the training. The government had introduced that. For | :12:41. | :12:43. | |
example, saying that the richest pensioners should not get the winter | :12:44. | :12:45. | |
fuel allowance, that is something the government haven't signed up. | :12:46. | :12:49. | |
You would get that under Labour and this government haven't signed up | :12:50. | :12:53. | |
for it. ?100 million on the winter fuel allowance and ?65 million on | :12:54. | :12:59. | |
youth training. ?165 million. How big is the welfare budget? The cap | :13:00. | :13:05. | |
would apply to ?120 billion. And you've saved 125 -- 165 million? | :13:06. | :13:12. | |
Those are cuts that we said we would do in government. If you look at the | :13:13. | :13:17. | |
real prize from the changes Ed Miliband announced in the youth | :13:18. | :13:20. | |
allowance, it's not the short-term savings, it's the fact that each of | :13:21. | :13:24. | |
these young people, who are currently on unemployment benefits | :13:25. | :13:27. | |
without the skills we know they need to succeed in life, they will cost | :13:28. | :13:33. | |
the taxpayer ?2000 per year. I will come onto that. You mentioned | :13:34. | :13:37. | |
universal credit, which the government regards as the flagship | :13:38. | :13:41. | |
reform. It's had lots of troubles with it and it merges six benefits | :13:42. | :13:47. | |
into one. You voted against it in the third reading and given lukewarm | :13:48. | :13:50. | |
support in the past. We have not said he would abandon it, but now | :13:51. | :13:56. | |
you say you are for it. You are all over the place. We set up the rescue | :13:57. | :14:00. | |
committee in autumn of last year because we have seen from the | :14:01. | :14:03. | |
National Audit Office and the Public Accounts Committee, report after | :14:04. | :14:08. | |
report showing that the project is massively overbudget and is not | :14:09. | :14:13. | |
going to be delivered according to the government timetable. We set up | :14:14. | :14:17. | |
the committee because we believe in the principle of universal credit | :14:18. | :14:19. | |
and think it is the right thing to do. Can you tell us now if you will | :14:20. | :14:24. | |
keep it or not? Because there is no transparency and we have no idea. We | :14:25. | :14:30. | |
are awash with information. We are not. The government, in the most | :14:31. | :14:36. | |
recent National audit Forest -- National Audit Office statement said | :14:37. | :14:41. | |
it was a reset project. This is really important. This is a flagship | :14:42. | :14:46. | |
government programme, and it's going to cost ?12.8 billion to deliver, | :14:47. | :14:51. | |
and we don't know what sort of state it is in, so we have said that if we | :14:52. | :14:55. | |
win at the next election, we will pause that for three months and | :14:56. | :15:02. | |
calling... Will you stop the pilots? We don't know what status they will | :15:03. | :15:08. | |
have. We would stop the build of the system for three months, calling the | :15:09. | :15:11. | |
National Audit Office to do awards and all report. The government don't | :15:12. | :15:17. | |
need to do this until the next general election, they could do it | :15:18. | :15:20. | |
today. Stop throwing good money after bad and get a grip of this | :15:21. | :15:24. | |
incredibly important programme. You said you don't know enough to a view | :15:25. | :15:30. | |
now. So when you were invited to a job centre where universal credit is | :15:31. | :15:33. | |
being rolled out to see how it was working, you refused to go. Why? We | :15:34. | :15:39. | |
asked were a meeting with Iain Duncan Smith and he cancelled the | :15:40. | :15:42. | |
meeting is three times. I'm talking about the visit when you were | :15:43. | :15:45. | |
offered to go to a job centre and you refused. We had an appointment | :15:46. | :15:50. | |
to meet Iain Duncan Smith at the Department for Work and Pensions and | :15:51. | :15:52. | |
said he cancelled and was not available, but he wanted us to go to | :15:53. | :15:57. | |
the job centre. We wanted to talk to him and his officials, which she | :15:58. | :16:02. | |
did. Would it be more useful to go to the job centre and find out how | :16:03. | :16:05. | |
it was working. He's going to tell you it's working fine. | :16:06. | :16:19. | |
Advice Bureau in Hammersmith, they are working to help the people | :16:20. | :16:26. | |
trying to claim universal credit. Iain Duncan Smith cancelled three | :16:27. | :16:32. | |
meetings. That is another issue, I was asking about the job centre. It | :16:33. | :16:37. | |
is not another issue because Iain Duncan Smith fogged us off. This | :16:38. | :16:43. | |
week you said that jobless youngsters who won't take training | :16:44. | :16:47. | |
will lose their welfare payments. How many young people are not in | :16:48. | :16:56. | |
work training or education? There are 140,000 young people claiming | :16:57. | :17:01. | |
benefits at the moment, but 850,000 young people who are not in work at | :17:02. | :17:07. | |
the moment. This applies to around 100,000 young people. There are | :17:08. | :17:15. | |
actually 975,000, 16-24 -year-olds, not in work, training or education. | :17:16. | :17:22. | |
Your proposal only applies to 100,000 of them, why? This is | :17:23. | :17:29. | |
applying to young people who are signing on for benefits rather than | :17:30. | :17:35. | |
signing up for training. We want to make sure that all young people... | :17:36. | :17:42. | |
Why only 100,000? They are the ones currently getting job-seeker's | :17:43. | :17:46. | |
allowance. We are saying you can not just sign up to... Can I get you to | :17:47. | :17:59. | |
respond to this, the number of people not in work, training or | :18:00. | :18:05. | |
education fell last year by more than you are planning to help. Long | :18:06. | :18:15. | |
turn -- long-term unemployment is an entrenched problem... This issue | :18:16. | :18:23. | |
about an entrenched group of young people. Young people who haven't got | :18:24. | :18:29. | |
skills and are not in training we know are much less likely to get a | :18:30. | :18:33. | |
job so there are 140,018-24 -year-olds signing onto benefits at | :18:34. | :18:40. | |
the moment. This is about trying to address that problem to make sure | :18:41. | :18:44. | |
all young people have the skills they need to get a job. Your policy | :18:45. | :18:50. | |
is to take away part of the dole unless young unemployed people agree | :18:51. | :18:54. | |
to study for level three qualifications, the equivalent of an | :18:55. | :19:00. | |
AS-level or an NVQ but 40% of these people have the literary skills of a | :19:01. | :19:08. | |
nine-year-old. After all that failed education, how are you going to | :19:09. | :19:13. | |
train them to a level standard? We are saying that anyone who doesn't | :19:14. | :19:18. | |
have that a level or equivalent qualification will be required to go | :19:19. | :19:23. | |
back to college. We are not saying that within a year they have to get | :19:24. | :19:28. | |
up to that level but these are exactly the sorts of people... These | :19:29. | :19:33. | |
people have been failed by your education system. These people are, | :19:34. | :19:37. | |
for the last four years, have been educated under a Conservative | :19:38. | :19:42. | |
government. 18 - 21-year-olds, most of them have their education under a | :19:43. | :19:47. | |
Labour government during which 300,000 people left with no GCSEs | :19:48. | :19:53. | |
whatsoever. I don't understand how training for one year can do what 11 | :19:54. | :19:59. | |
years in school did not. We are not saying that within one year | :20:00. | :20:02. | |
everybody will get up to a level three qualifications, but if you are | :20:03. | :20:06. | |
one of those people who enters the Labour market age 18 with the | :20:07. | :20:10. | |
reading skills of a nine-year-old, they are the sorts of people that | :20:11. | :20:18. | |
should not the left languishing. I went to college in Hackney if you | :20:19. | :20:21. | |
should not the left languishing. I you are -- a few weeks ago and there | :20:22. | :20:27. | |
was a dyslexic boy studying painting and decorating. In school they | :20:28. | :20:31. | |
decided he was a troublemaker and that he didn't want to learn. He | :20:32. | :20:37. | |
went back to college because he wanted to get the skills. He said | :20:38. | :20:41. | |
that it wasn't until he went back to college that he could pick up a | :20:42. | :20:46. | |
newspaper and read it, it made a huge difference but too many people | :20:47. | :20:52. | |
are let down by the system. I am wondering how the training will make | :20:53. | :20:56. | |
up for an education system that failed them but let's move on to | :20:57. | :21:01. | |
your leader. Look at this graph of Ed Miliband's popularity. This is | :21:02. | :21:07. | |
the net satisfaction with him, it is dreadful. The trend continues to | :21:08. | :21:11. | |
climb since he became leader of the Labour Party, why? What you have | :21:12. | :21:17. | |
seen is another 2300 Labour councillors since Ed Miliband became | :21:18. | :21:21. | |
the leader of the Labour Party. You saw in the elections a month ago | :21:22. | :21:29. | |
that... Why is the satisfaction rate falling? We can look at polls or | :21:30. | :21:34. | |
actual election results and the fact that we have got another 2000 Labour | :21:35. | :21:39. | |
councillors, more people voting Labour, the opinion polls today show | :21:40. | :21:44. | |
that if there was a general election today we would have a majority of | :21:45. | :21:48. | |
more than 40, he must be doing something right. Why do almost 50% | :21:49. | :21:56. | |
of voters want to replace him as leader? Why do 50% and more think | :21:57. | :22:03. | |
that he is not up to the job? The more people see Ed Miliband, the | :22:04. | :22:09. | |
less impressed they are. The British people seem to like him less. The | :22:10. | :22:14. | |
election strategy I suggest that follows from that is that you should | :22:15. | :22:19. | |
keep Ed Miliband under wraps until the election. Let's look at actually | :22:20. | :22:24. | |
what happens when people get a chance to vote, when they get that | :22:25. | :22:29. | |
opportunity we have seen more Labour councillors, more Labour members of | :22:30. | :22:36. | |
the European Parliament... Oppositions always get more. The | :22:37. | :22:42. | |
opinion polls today, one of them shows Labour four points ahead. You | :22:43. | :22:47. | |
have not done that well in local government elections or European | :22:48. | :22:51. | |
elections. Why don't people like him? I think we have done incredibly | :22:52. | :22:57. | |
well in elections. People must like a lot of the things Labour and Ed | :22:58. | :23:02. | |
Miliband are doing because we are winning back support across the | :23:03. | :23:06. | |
country. We won local councils in places like Hammersmith and Fulham, | :23:07. | :23:11. | |
Crawley, Hastings, key places that Labour need to win back at the | :23:12. | :23:17. | |
general election next year. Even you have said traditional Labour | :23:18. | :23:22. | |
supporters are abandoning the party. That is what Ed Miliband has said as | :23:23. | :23:27. | |
well. We have got this real concern about what has happened. If you look | :23:28. | :23:33. | |
at the elections in May, 60% of people didn't even bother going to | :23:34. | :23:38. | |
vote. That is a profound issue not just for Labour. You said | :23:39. | :23:42. | |
traditional voters who perhaps at times we took for granted are now | :23:43. | :23:47. | |
being offered an alternative. Why did you take them for granted? This | :23:48. | :23:53. | |
is what Ed Miliband said. I am not saying anything Ed Miliband himself | :23:54. | :23:59. | |
has not said. When he ran for the leadership he said that we took too | :24:00. | :24:05. | |
many people for granted and we needed to give people positive | :24:06. | :24:08. | |
reasons to vote Labour, he has been doing that. He has been there for | :24:09. | :24:12. | |
four years and you are saying you still take them for granted. Why? I | :24:13. | :24:16. | |
am saying that for too long we have taken them for granted. We are on | :24:17. | :24:21. | |
track to win the general election next year and that will defy all the | :24:22. | :24:31. | |
odds. You are going to win... Ed Miliband will win next year and make | :24:32. | :24:33. | |
a great Prime Minister. Now to the Liberal Democrats, at the | :24:34. | :24:41. | |
risk of intruding into private grief. The party is still smarting | :24:42. | :24:45. | |
from dire results in the European and Local Elections. The only poll | :24:46. | :24:48. | |
Nick Clegg has won in recent times is to be voted the most unpopular | :24:49. | :24:52. | |
leader of a party in modern British history. No surprise there have been | :24:53. | :24:57. | |
calls for him to go, though that still looks unlikely. Here's | :24:58. | :24:58. | |
Eleanor. Liberal Democrats celebrating, | :24:59. | :25:01. | |
something we haven't seen for a while. This victory back in 1998 led | :25:02. | :25:07. | |
to a decade of power for the Lib Dems in Liverpool. What a contrast | :25:08. | :25:12. | |
to the city's political landscape today. At its height the party had | :25:13. | :25:18. | |
69 local councillors, now down to just three. The scale of the | :25:19. | :25:22. | |
challenge facing Nick Clegg and the Lib Dems is growing. The party is | :25:23. | :25:29. | |
rock bottom in the polls, consistently in single figures. It | :25:30. | :25:32. | |
was wiped out in the European elections losing all but one of its | :25:33. | :25:37. | |
12 MEPs and in the local elections it lost 42% of the seats that it was | :25:38. | :25:44. | |
defending. But on Merseyside, Nick Clegg was putting on a brave face. | :25:45. | :25:50. | |
We did badly in Liverpool, Manchester and London in particular, | :25:51. | :25:55. | |
we did well in other places. But you are right, we did badly in some of | :25:56. | :26:01. | |
those big cities and I have initiated a review, quite | :26:02. | :26:05. | |
naturally, to understand what went wrong, what went right. As Lib Dems | :26:06. | :26:11. | |
across the country get on with some serious soul-searching, there is an | :26:12. | :26:15. | |
admission that his is the leader of the party who is failing to hit the | :26:16. | :26:20. | |
right notes. Knocking on doors in Liverpool, I have to tell you that | :26:21. | :26:25. | |
Nick Clegg is not a popular person. Some might use the word toxic and I | :26:26. | :26:31. | |
find this very difficult because I know Nick very well and I see a | :26:32. | :26:34. | |
principal person who passionately believes in what he is doing and he | :26:35. | :26:40. | |
is a nice guy. As a result of his popularity, what has happened to the | :26:41. | :26:51. | |
core vote? In parts of the country, we are down to just three | :26:52. | :26:54. | |
councillors like Liverpool for example. You also lose the | :26:55. | :26:59. | |
deliverers and fundraisers and the organisers and the members of course | :27:00. | :27:03. | |
so all of that will have to be rebuilt. As they start fermenting | :27:04. | :27:08. | |
process, local parties across the country and here in Liverpool have | :27:09. | :27:13. | |
been voting on whether there should be a leadership contest. We had two | :27:14. | :27:19. | |
choices to flush out and have a go at Nick Clegg or to positively | :27:20. | :27:24. | |
decide we would sharpen up the campaign and get back on the | :27:25. | :27:29. | |
streets, and by four to one ratio we decided to get back on the streets. | :27:30. | :27:34. | |
We are bruised and battered but we are still here, the orange flag is | :27:35. | :27:40. | |
still flying and one day it will fly over this building again, Liverpool | :27:41. | :27:45. | |
town hall. But do people want the Lib Dems back in charge in this | :27:46. | :27:50. | |
city? I certainly wouldn't vote for them. Their performance in | :27:51. | :27:54. | |
Government and the way they have left their promises down, I could | :27:55. | :27:59. | |
not vote for them again. I voted Lib Dem in the last election because of | :28:00. | :28:05. | |
the university tuition fees and I would never vote for them again | :28:06. | :28:11. | |
because they broke their promise. The Lib Dems are awful, broken | :28:12. | :28:14. | |
promises and what have you. I wouldn't vote for them. This is the | :28:15. | :28:18. | |
declaration of the results for the Northwest... Last month, as other | :28:19. | :28:23. | |
party celebrated in the north-west, the Lib Dems here lost their only | :28:24. | :28:28. | |
MEP, Chris Davies. Now there is concern the party doesn't know how | :28:29. | :28:33. | |
to turn its fortunes around. We don't have an answer to that, if we | :28:34. | :28:39. | |
did we would be grasping it with both hands. We will do our best to | :28:40. | :28:47. | |
hold onto the places where we still have seats but as for the rest of | :28:48. | :28:52. | |
the country where we have been hollowed out, we don't know how to | :28:53. | :28:56. | |
start again until the next general election is out of the way. After | :28:57. | :29:00. | |
their disastrous performance in the European elections, pressure is | :29:01. | :29:03. | |
growing for the party to shift its stance. I think there has to be a | :29:04. | :29:14. | |
lancing of the wound, there should in a referendum and the Liberal | :29:15. | :29:21. | |
Democrats should be calling it. The rest of Europe once this because | :29:22. | :29:26. | |
they are fed up with Britain being unable to make up its mind. The Lib | :29:27. | :29:31. | |
Dems are now suffering the effects of being in Government. The party's | :29:32. | :29:36. | |
problem, choosing the right course to regain political credibility. | :29:37. | :29:43. | |
We can now speak to form a Lib Dems leader Ming Campbell. Welcome back | :29:44. | :29:48. | |
to the Sunday Politics. Even your own activists say that Nick Clegg is | :29:49. | :29:54. | |
toxic. How will that change between now and the election? When you have | :29:55. | :29:58. | |
had disappointing results, but you have to do is to rebuild. You pick | :29:59. | :30:04. | |
yourself up and start all over again, and the reason why the | :30:05. | :30:08. | |
Liberal Democrats got 57, 56 seats in the House of Commons now is | :30:09. | :30:13. | |
because we picked ourselves up, we took every opportunity and we have | :30:14. | :30:15. | |
rebuilt from the bottom up. least popular leader in modern | :30:16. | :30:27. | |
history and more unpopular than your mate Gordon Brown. You are running | :30:28. | :30:32. | |
out of time. No one believes that being the leader of a modern | :30:33. | :30:36. | |
political party in the UK is an easy job. Both Ed Miliband and David | :30:37. | :30:40. | |
Cameron must have had cause to think, over breakfast this morning, | :30:41. | :30:44. | |
when they saw the headlines in some of the Sunday papers. Of course it | :30:45. | :30:47. | |
is a difficult job but it was pointed out a moment or two ago that | :30:48. | :30:52. | |
Nick Clegg is a man of principle and enormous resilience if you consider | :30:53. | :30:56. | |
what he had to put up with, and in my view, he is quite clearly the | :30:57. | :30:59. | |
person best qualified to lead the party between now and the general | :31:00. | :31:02. | |
election and through the election campaign, and beyond. So why don't | :31:03. | :31:08. | |
people like him? We have had to take some pretty difficult decisions, | :31:09. | :31:12. | |
and, of course, people didn't expect that. If you look back to the rather | :31:13. | :31:19. | |
heady days of the rose garden behind ten Downing St, people thought it | :31:20. | :31:22. | |
was all going to be sweetness and light, but the fact is, we didn't | :31:23. | :31:26. | |
know then what we know now, about the extent of the economic crisis we | :31:27. | :31:30. | |
win, and a lot of difficult decisions have had to be taken in | :31:31. | :31:34. | |
order to restore economic stability. Look around you. You will see we are | :31:35. | :31:39. | |
not there yet but we are a long way better off than in 2010. You are not | :31:40. | :31:43. | |
getting the credit for it, the Tories are. We will be a little more | :31:44. | :31:51. | |
assertive about taking the credit. For example, the fact that 23 | :31:52. | :31:55. | |
million people have had a tax cut of ?800 per year and we have taken 2 | :31:56. | :31:59. | |
million people out of paying tax altogether. Ming Campbell, your | :32:00. | :32:02. | |
people say that on every programme like this. Because it is true. That | :32:03. | :32:09. | |
might be the case, but you are at seven or 8% in the polls, and nobody | :32:10. | :32:13. | |
is listening, or they don't believe it. Once | :32:14. | :32:21. | |
is listening, or they don't believe doubt that what we have achieved | :32:22. | :32:22. | |
will be much more easily recognised, and there is no doubt, | :32:23. | :32:26. | |
for example, in some of the recent polls, like the Ashcroft Pole, | :32:27. | :32:30. | |
something like 30% of those polled said that as a result at the next | :32:31. | :32:38. | |
something like 30% of those polled general election, they would prepare | :32:39. | :32:40. | |
their to be a coalition involving the Liberal Democrats. So there is | :32:41. | :32:45. | |
no question that the whole notion of coalition is still very much a live | :32:46. | :32:49. | |
one, and one which we have made work in the public interest. The problem | :32:50. | :32:53. | |
is people don't think that. People see you trying to have your cake and | :32:54. | :32:57. | |
eat it. On the one hand you want to get your share of the credit for the | :32:58. | :33:00. | |
turnaround in the economy, on the other hand you can't stop yourself | :33:01. | :33:04. | |
from distancing yourself from the Tories and things that you did not | :33:05. | :33:08. | |
like happening. You are trying to face both ways at once. If you | :33:09. | :33:14. | |
remember our fellow Scotsman famously said you cannot ride both | :33:15. | :33:27. | |
remember our fellow Scotsman to the terms -- terms of the | :33:28. | :33:27. | |
remember our fellow Scotsman coalition agreement, which is what | :33:28. | :33:29. | |
we signed up to in 2010. In addition, in furtherance of that | :33:30. | :33:33. | |
agreement, we have created things like the pupil premium and the | :33:34. | :33:37. | |
others I mentioned and you were rather dismissive. I'm not | :33:38. | :33:40. | |
dismissive, I'm just saying they don't make a difference to what | :33:41. | :33:44. | |
people think of you. We will do everything in our power to change | :33:45. | :33:50. | |
that between now and May 2015. The interesting thing is, going back to | :33:51. | :33:55. | |
the Ashcroft result, it demonstrated clearly that in constituencies where | :33:56. | :34:01. | |
we have MPs and we are well dug in, we are doing everything that the | :34:02. | :34:04. | |
public expects of us, and we are doing very well indeed. You aren't | :34:05. | :34:09. | |
sure fellow Lib Dems have been saying this for you -- you and your | :34:10. | :34:15. | |
fellow Liberal Dems have been saying this for a year or 18 months, and | :34:16. | :34:18. | |
since then you have lost all of your MEPs apart from one, you lost your | :34:19. | :34:22. | |
deposit in a by-election, you lost 310 councillor, including everyone | :34:23. | :34:28. | |
in Manchester or Islington. Mr Clegg leading you into the next general | :34:29. | :34:33. | |
election will be the equivalent of the charge of the light Brigade. I | :34:34. | :34:39. | |
doubt that very much. The implication behind that lit you | :34:40. | :34:43. | |
rehearsed is that we should pack our tents in the night and steal away. | :34:44. | :34:48. | |
-- that litany. And if you heard in that piece that preceded the | :34:49. | :34:51. | |
discussion, people were saying, look we have to start from the bottom and | :34:52. | :34:55. | |
have to rebuild. That is exactly what we will do. Nine months is a | :34:56. | :35:09. | |
period of gestation. As you well know. I wouldn't dismiss it quite so | :35:10. | :35:15. | |
easily as that. I'm not here to say we had a wonderful result or | :35:16. | :35:18. | |
anything like it, but what I do say is that the party is determined to | :35:19. | :35:23. | |
turn it round, and that Nick Clegg is the person best qualified to do | :35:24. | :35:29. | |
it. Should your party adopt a referendum about in or out on | :35:30. | :35:30. | |
Europe? No, we should stuck to the task, not is what is | :35:31. | :36:08. | |
going to happen in May 2015. Thank you for joining us. Now, let's say | :36:09. | :36:10. | |
goodbye to the viewers in Scotland. Good morning and welcome to | :36:11. | :36:17. | |
Sunday Politics Scotland. The cost of independence, | :36:18. | :36:19. | |
the latest analysis puts the Ed Miliband has unveiled his | :36:20. | :36:25. | |
proposals for benefit reform, we'll ask the Shadow Scottish Secretary | :36:26. | :36:31. | |
how that will play on the doorsteps. 700 years on next weekend, | :36:32. | :36:36. | |
Robert the Bruce will ride again How successful will this event be | :36:37. | :36:39. | |
as Armed Forces Day takes place A row broke out at Holyrood this | :36:40. | :36:45. | |
week about whether the Scottish Government were working on set up | :36:46. | :36:55. | |
costs in the event of a yes vote. Last month it insisted that civil | :36:56. | :36:58. | |
servants had not even begun to work on the calculations | :36:59. | :37:03. | |
because much would depend But on Friday it emerged that the | :37:04. | :37:05. | |
government had advertised a number of business critical posts and | :37:06. | :37:09. | |
were fast tracking applications. The Scottish Government claims it's | :37:10. | :37:17. | |
ensuring The Liberal Democrat leader Willie | :37:18. | :37:18. | |
Rennie and Conservative leader Ruth Davidson tabled questions to | :37:19. | :37:23. | |
the First Minister on the subject last Thursday and asked why those | :37:24. | :37:28. | |
figures wouldn't be available to the We know from the finance secretary | :37:29. | :37:43. | |
in 2012 that he ordered work to build a competency overview of the | :37:44. | :37:45. | |
institutions, gusts and staff numbers required in the event of | :37:46. | :37:51. | |
independence. Last year, the deputy first minister confirmed that work | :37:52. | :37:54. | |
was underway, telling a Commons committee, and I quote, we are doing | :37:55. | :37:59. | |
substantial work on this just now. Suffice to say, it covers not just | :38:00. | :38:03. | |
running costs but the issues around setup. But then, last month, the | :38:04. | :38:08. | |
first Minister's official spokesman said, there was no overview, no | :38:09. | :38:15. | |
document, just, and I quote again, e-mail and jottings. And then this | :38:16. | :38:20. | |
morning, a week after the chief economic adviser said he had done no | :38:21. | :38:24. | |
work, we read reports that the government is rushing out figures to | :38:25. | :38:31. | |
paper over the cracks. They say the work is substantial, then they say | :38:32. | :38:34. | |
it is not. They say it will be published before the referendum but | :38:35. | :38:38. | |
then they say they will not. The people of Scotland have to know, | :38:39. | :38:40. | |
what is going on? The start-up costs of setting up | :38:41. | :38:42. | |
independent institutions have been In May the Treasury claimed they | :38:43. | :38:45. | |
would amount to ?2.7 billion. It cited a study carried out | :38:46. | :38:50. | |
by Professor Patrick Dunleavy He, however, said the figure badly | :38:51. | :38:53. | |
misrepresented his research and that any contribution to the public | :38:54. | :39:00. | |
debate needed to be accurate. In turn, the Scottish government | :39:01. | :39:02. | |
quoted a figure of ?250 million, Today Professor Dunleavy has | :39:03. | :39:07. | |
published a new analysis, It suggests that there would be | :39:08. | :39:13. | |
immediate setup costs of up to ?200 million to create new | :39:14. | :39:18. | |
administrative structures that Several hundred million pounds would | :39:19. | :39:22. | |
need to be spent on new IT systems Costs would increase | :39:23. | :39:31. | |
if negotiations were hostile. And it notes that agreeing | :39:32. | :39:37. | |
the transition to independence Earlier this morning I spoke to | :39:38. | :39:41. | |
the professor and I began by asking him what the total cost of | :39:42. | :39:49. | |
setting up a new country might be. I think we need to keep clear what | :39:50. | :40:01. | |
is a setup cost, and what is some other kind of cost. For example, the | :40:02. | :40:08. | |
tax and benefit system, those contracts, they are continuously | :40:09. | :40:15. | |
coming up for renewal in the UK. So over the next several years, a large | :40:16. | :40:20. | |
portion of all of the UK's major IT contracts will have to be | :40:21. | :40:24. | |
re-elected, and that will cost a lot of money. I don't think we can count | :40:25. | :40:30. | |
Scotland setting up its own tax and benefit system as being just the | :40:31. | :40:35. | |
setup costs, it is part of the investment cost. In that | :40:36. | :40:39. | |
transitional period, would it be possible for an independent Scotland | :40:40. | :40:44. | |
to have a different taxation, for example, or a different benefit | :40:45. | :40:48. | |
system from the rest of the UK? Until the new systems are set up | :40:49. | :40:52. | |
which you seem to be suggesting would be about 2020, 2021? Benefits, | :40:53. | :40:59. | |
according to the Scottish government timetable, would be domesticated in | :41:00. | :41:04. | |
2018, and personal income tax in 2020, and other bits of taxation | :41:05. | :41:09. | |
would take longer. What about something like corporation tax? It | :41:10. | :41:12. | |
is one of their flagship policies, they want to cut that. When could | :41:13. | :41:17. | |
that be done realistically? You have got to choose between making wasn't | :41:18. | :41:21. | |
-- policy choices and changing whole systems. It is possible, it might be | :41:22. | :41:26. | |
difficult and it could be systems. It is possible, it might be | :41:27. | :41:30. | |
difficult and it could expensive to change policy. So to say, we will | :41:31. | :41:35. | |
keep the same corporate tax policy, but we will levy a different level | :41:36. | :41:43. | |
on Scotland. But when you get to benefits, it is quite complicated to | :41:44. | :41:47. | |
have policy variation between the UK and Scotland. The Scottish | :41:48. | :41:52. | |
government has said a couple of things they would not proceed with. | :41:53. | :41:56. | |
But essentially, that is why you need to domesticated your IT, | :41:57. | :42:04. | |
because modern policy relies on IT systems. The existing UK systems are | :42:05. | :42:09. | |
very big, complex legacy systems, very costly to operate. You say | :42:10. | :42:14. | |
there are grounds for ordering, and I am quoting you, the swift | :42:15. | :42:18. | |
transition in busy from a yes vote to an independent Scotland by March | :42:19. | :42:23. | |
2016 is unrealistic or unlikely to happen. Why you say that? That is a | :42:24. | :42:31. | |
footnote! You know, I think when anybody puts forward a timetable, | :42:32. | :42:37. | |
people query the timetable. To go from September this year to March | :42:38. | :42:46. | |
2016 would be quite minding. So -- quite demanding. So you think it | :42:47. | :42:52. | |
would have to be put back a bit? I think Scotland would have to | :42:53. | :42:55. | |
negotiate independence with the rest of the UK. In the process of that, | :42:56. | :43:01. | |
some issues that come up, but it might well be that if Scotland has | :43:02. | :43:09. | |
voted yes, then everybody accepts that this is a top political | :43:10. | :43:15. | |
priority and this timetable will stick after all. We are saying, | :43:16. | :43:20. | |
there is an issue around it as there is about almost every aspect of the | :43:21. | :43:27. | |
transition. You had a meeting with the Scottish government this week, | :43:28. | :43:31. | |
are you officially involved in them trying to do work with setup costs? | :43:32. | :43:34. | |
What is your understanding what their plans are of this issue? I had | :43:35. | :43:43. | |
a whole set of meetings with people in Scotland including and up to the | :43:44. | :43:46. | |
first minister not this week but last week. What is your involvement | :43:47. | :43:52. | |
from now? I don't have any involvement at this point with the | :43:53. | :43:58. | |
Scottish government. Is your understanding the Scottish | :43:59. | :43:59. | |
government itself is now doing work on this? I think that there has been | :44:00. | :44:07. | |
a lot of, kind of, chasing bogeyman here. The idea that the Scottish | :44:08. | :44:12. | |
government has a secret dossier or a set of information that they are | :44:13. | :44:17. | |
hiding has been suggested in the Scottish Parliament, and hinted at | :44:18. | :44:24. | |
by Danny Alexander. This is ironic really, because the person who knows | :44:25. | :44:28. | |
a lot more about what the transition costs for Scotland would be if David | :44:29. | :44:33. | |
Cameron. The big uncertainty is what the UK would do in negotiation. | :44:34. | :44:38. | |
Listening to that was the shadow Scottish Secretary Margaret Curran | :44:39. | :44:43. | |
who joins me now. Whatever we make of the Professor's latest estimates, | :44:44. | :44:48. | |
the basic point here is that the UK government document that said the | :44:49. | :44:53. | |
setup cost of independent Scotland would be ?2.7 billion was just | :44:54. | :44:58. | |
nonsense. You know, I think it is interesting, and the viewers | :44:59. | :45:00. | |
watching this and people throughout Scotland will be questioning now why | :45:01. | :45:04. | |
they are having to look at the Sunday Post this morning to find out | :45:05. | :45:07. | |
the latest stage of where we have got to this. I will come onto what | :45:08. | :45:11. | |
you think the Scottish government will do in the moment. But the basic | :45:12. | :45:17. | |
point is, in outing to the accepted that the figures put out by the | :45:18. | :45:24. | |
British come and work rubbish. -- government were rubbish. Today, we | :45:25. | :45:31. | |
have got the 200 million costs, but they have gone on to say that there | :45:32. | :45:35. | |
are substantial other costs. He said ?700 million. He did not dismiss the | :45:36. | :45:45. | |
?900 million which is setting up the IT systems. That does not get you to | :45:46. | :45:53. | |
?2.7 billion. But the ?900 million for the tax and benefit systems | :45:54. | :45:58. | |
alone, you are in that territory. We are looking at millions of pounds in | :45:59. | :46:01. | |
terms of setting up an independent state and that is just tax and | :46:02. | :46:08. | |
welfare. We know there are other issues, the Ford talks about | :46:09. | :46:12. | |
convocations around EU and NATO and suchlike. It is not unreasonable for | :46:13. | :46:19. | |
us to say, here we are 90 days away from it, the government have been | :46:20. | :46:24. | |
planning, but we do not even know who the staff were working on it. | :46:25. | :46:29. | |
What I do not quite understand is when the Conservative Liberal | :46:30. | :46:34. | |
Democrat coalition puts out figures which are widely accepted now to be | :46:35. | :46:38. | |
inaccurate, to put it mildly, which are said by Professor Dunleavy | :46:39. | :46:47. | |
himself to mislead his -- misrepresent his research, why you | :46:48. | :46:50. | |
want to defend these figures. I just rang to say what people are trying | :46:51. | :46:54. | |
to say out there, what are the reasonable figures which will be | :46:55. | :46:59. | |
involved in setting up an independent Scotland. What do people | :47:00. | :47:04. | |
want to see the Scottish government doing, then? I think we need a | :47:05. | :47:11. | |
degree of transparency, we have had John Swinney and Nicola Sturgeon | :47:12. | :47:14. | |
saying, we would get some sense, they have not fulfilled that. We | :47:15. | :47:17. | |
have now got the first Minister saying we need to set up these civil | :47:18. | :47:22. | |
service jobs looking at it. But another point... Your demand is | :47:23. | :47:27. | |
what, they should publish them figures? Certainly let us know what | :47:28. | :47:32. | |
is going on and who is involved. Professor Dunleavy also said you | :47:33. | :47:36. | |
should never associate transition costs with assets, they should be | :47:37. | :47:40. | |
divided from each other. That is often the stock answer we get from | :47:41. | :47:45. | |
the first Minister, when we just get the general response. We need | :47:46. | :47:51. | |
clarity about... You would expect and demand that the Scottish | :47:52. | :47:55. | |
government publish some figures? Yes, what figures they have they | :47:56. | :48:00. | |
should publish. They could -- they should take a step-by-step through | :48:01. | :48:04. | |
the work they have done and be transparent and public about this. | :48:05. | :48:12. | |
Including about spending. This week, Ed Miliband outlined his proposals | :48:13. | :48:19. | |
for young people. We have been talking to some young people. I | :48:20. | :48:26. | |
think it is difficult, he is busy trying to appeal to swing voters who | :48:27. | :48:31. | |
might have voted Labour before, but he has got to make cuts somewhere. | :48:32. | :48:35. | |
It could do well for him because older people tend to vote for. As a | :48:36. | :48:40. | |
young person, I know people who are on jobseeker's allowance and I know | :48:41. | :48:44. | |
can be difficult. It is a good idea, it will encourage people to go into | :48:45. | :48:48. | |
training rather than sitting around not really doing anything. Young | :48:49. | :48:51. | |
people should be encouraged to work or do training. I am not sure about | :48:52. | :48:59. | |
whether it should be based upon how much money your parents have. | :49:00. | :49:04. | |
Especially if you're looking to go into work, looking to support | :49:05. | :49:11. | |
yourself more. I welcome the proposals around training. I think | :49:12. | :49:15. | |
it is important government give support to young people when they | :49:16. | :49:19. | |
are out of work to get into the work place. I do not like it means | :49:20. | :49:24. | |
testing the benefit, you would not deliver those over 25 so I do not | :49:25. | :49:27. | |
see why you would do it for those under. Once you are 16 and 18, you | :49:28. | :49:34. | |
are a full system with full rights. When the IPPR year or so ago | :49:35. | :49:41. | |
proposed a similar learning or dining scheme, Rachel Reid, your | :49:42. | :49:48. | |
front bench, rejected it, she rejected it, saying, we should not | :49:49. | :49:56. | |
be blaming young people for Tory failure. What has changed? The IPPR | :49:57. | :50:04. | |
was much more wide ranging in its report, it related to young people | :50:05. | :50:11. | |
up to 25. And yours applies only to 21? So if you talk about people from | :50:12. | :50:16. | |
18 to 25, we are blaming young people for Tory failure, but when we | :50:17. | :50:20. | |
talk about 18 to 21, we are not blaming? What the proposal that Ed | :50:21. | :50:28. | |
Miliband and Rachel Reid is very -- has put | :50:29. | :50:37. | |
We know young people have a difficulty with new Morrissey and | :50:38. | :50:46. | |
literacy. But what you are saying is if you are in this particular group | :50:47. | :50:52. | |
and you do not agree to go into further training or education you | :50:53. | :50:58. | |
will not get any benefit. -- new Morrissey and literacy. You will get | :50:59. | :51:08. | |
youth allowance if you go into training. And if you do not you will | :51:09. | :51:20. | |
get nothing? We know what happened to people who do not go into | :51:21. | :51:25. | |
training, they are condemned to a life on benefits without | :51:26. | :51:32. | |
opportunity. Often young people who did not do well at school want a | :51:33. | :51:40. | |
second chance. Encouraging people to go into education everyone would | :51:41. | :51:44. | |
agree is a good thing but you are effectively saying to parents who | :51:45. | :51:49. | |
have problem youngsters who refused to do this that they are going to | :51:50. | :51:53. | |
have to finance those young people because the well-known longer be | :51:54. | :51:58. | |
entitled under Labour to any benefits at all. I think you will | :51:59. | :52:02. | |
find that goes against the stream of argument. Some of these young people | :52:03. | :52:09. | |
who do want to go to college do not get the financial support to go to | :52:10. | :52:16. | |
college. We know there is a problem. Young people who do want to go to | :52:17. | :52:22. | |
college, the way the current benefits system works will not do | :52:23. | :52:26. | |
that. The current system would rather have young people in training | :52:27. | :52:32. | |
than on benefits. I think most parents would encourage their young | :52:33. | :52:35. | |
people to go to college and get financial support. In a few minutes | :52:36. | :52:43. | |
we'll be asking Cabinet secretary Fergus Ewing for his response. But | :52:44. | :52:45. | |
first, Scotland's most famous battlefield will echo to the cries | :52:46. | :52:49. | |
of war next weekend, and the shouts of burger stall holders and t-shirt | :52:50. | :52:52. | |
sellers, as thousands attend Bannockburn Live. It's become a bit | :52:53. | :52:56. | |
of a political football as MSPs speak about concerns over ticket | :52:57. | :52:59. | |
sales and questions arise over the surprising decision to hold Armed | :53:00. | :53:03. | |
Forces Day in a field next door on the same day. Others ask why so much | :53:04. | :53:09. | |
is being spent on one event when other areas of ancestral tourism | :53:10. | :53:12. | |
could do with funding. Here's Andrew Kerr. The stage is being set for | :53:13. | :53:26. | |
what is being built as two spectacular days of medieval | :53:27. | :53:31. | |
re-enactments. Music, food and fashion as organisers prepare to go | :53:32. | :53:37. | |
into battle, they will be hoping for a day like today. Bannockburn | :53:38. | :53:44. | |
secured the way for Scotland to go into independence. The politics of | :53:45. | :53:49. | |
the battlefield have spilled into the present day. Over the past few | :53:50. | :53:54. | |
months MSPs have been ailing concerns over what they saw as low | :53:55. | :54:01. | |
ticket sales, poor marketing and a lack of accountability. The National | :54:02. | :54:03. | |
Trust for Scotland handed over at the event to visit Scotland when | :54:04. | :54:10. | |
they held -- heard through the media that Armed Forces Day would be held | :54:11. | :54:16. | |
on the same day by Stirling Council. Progress has been made. With | :54:17. | :54:21. | |
taxpayers money at stake the local MSP guaranteed success. Visit | :54:22. | :54:30. | |
Scotland have a good solid experience in this area, I am sure | :54:31. | :54:37. | |
it will be successful. Capacity was for 45,000 people to attend over | :54:38. | :54:42. | |
three days. It is now a two-day event with a target of 15,000. | :54:43. | :54:49. | |
10,000 tickets have been sold, two thirds full. ?392,000 of taxpayers | :54:50. | :54:57. | |
money has been ploughed into it. Perhaps the concerns have been | :54:58. | :55:01. | |
expressed because of the apparently unsuccessful gathering in 2009. | :55:02. | :55:07. | |
Taxpayers had to fit the overall bill and some were not paid. We are | :55:08. | :55:15. | |
confident the event itself will break even through ticket revenue | :55:16. | :55:19. | |
and other commercial revenue streams. I do not think there is any | :55:20. | :55:26. | |
worry at all for the taxpayer. All the suppliers are committed to being | :55:27. | :55:29. | |
paid and I think at the end of the day it will be a great event and we | :55:30. | :55:34. | |
will generate sufficient revenue to cover the costs. There is always a | :55:35. | :55:43. | |
risk with any quick sector spend it but we have advanced ticket sales of | :55:44. | :55:52. | |
between two thirds and three quarters. There is a whole surface | :55:53. | :55:59. | |
of things to do at the festival from music to the arts, retail to food. | :56:00. | :56:04. | |
It will showcase the best of Scottish produce, creativity and in | :56:05. | :56:11. | |
a destination that tourists need to discover. With a large amount of | :56:12. | :56:19. | |
public money going into one event there is also a call to spread the | :56:20. | :56:25. | |
largess around to other related areas which could also benefit. It | :56:26. | :56:34. | |
is interesting, it is an area of focus for the tourism industry but I | :56:35. | :56:38. | |
also think it would be good if some smaller centres and museums could | :56:39. | :56:43. | |
get some funding because they are a crucial part of the tourist speedy | :56:44. | :56:54. | |
and is. -- tourist experience. Many Scots and English well next weekend | :56:55. | :56:58. | |
stand on the battlefield where their ancestors fought but when the battle | :56:59. | :57:03. | |
cries died down the could still be some skirmishes. I am joined now by | :57:04. | :57:14. | |
the Cabinet Minister for energy, enterprise and tourism. How many | :57:15. | :57:18. | |
tickets have you sold? Around 10,000. We are very confident we | :57:19. | :57:27. | |
will reach the target of 15,000 for what will be a terrific feast of | :57:28. | :57:36. | |
music, history and food on the 28th and 29th of September. That weekend | :57:37. | :57:42. | |
we also have white vest and Armed Forces Day. It will be a great | :57:43. | :57:48. | |
weekend for Stirling. 50,000 is the target for Bannockburn. I think they | :57:49. | :57:54. | |
are expecting something like 50,000 to turn up for Armed Forces Day. The | :57:55. | :58:01. | |
symbolism and iconography of that is not terrific for you as a supporter | :58:02. | :58:08. | |
of the yes campaign? I am hoping people will have a great weekend | :58:09. | :58:17. | |
out. Quite by giving 50,000 will turn out to support Armed Forces Day | :58:18. | :58:20. | |
and only 15,000 to support Bannockburn? Your viewers can go to | :58:21. | :58:31. | |
Bannockburn live .com for the details of what will be an | :58:32. | :58:36. | |
absolutely tremendous event with singers, re-enactments of the | :58:37. | :58:44. | |
battle... You are turning into a used car salesman in front of my | :58:45. | :58:47. | |
eyes. How about cancelling the question. There will be a | :58:48. | :58:55. | |
magnificent chance for children to hear Rory tellers. People can look | :58:56. | :59:05. | |
up what is on. -- storytellers. To answer your question, of course we | :59:06. | :59:09. | |
remember the Battle of Bannockburn which led to the growth of | :59:10. | :59:12. | |
independence which gained freedom for Scotland and also we remember | :59:13. | :59:17. | |
the sacrifice of the Armed Forces and the First World War who gave so | :59:18. | :59:22. | |
much to preserve freedom. I think we should remember and preserve all of | :59:23. | :59:28. | |
our history. You might be concerned with profits rising doom but I think | :59:29. | :59:33. | |
we can make this weekend a great weekend for all abuzz, not | :59:34. | :59:40. | |
necessarily for politics but for family fun. One of the main reasons | :59:41. | :59:45. | |
they will be 50,000 that Armed Forces Day is because it is free. | :59:46. | :59:51. | |
Why not make an burn free? It is only costing three quarters of ?1 | :59:52. | :59:55. | |
million, you could easily justify that as public spending, why not say | :59:56. | :00:02. | |
now, just turn up, it is free and we will get everyone who has read | :00:03. | :00:08. | |
already their money back? I think the way you asked the question is | :00:09. | :00:12. | |
why you are doing your job and I am doing mine. We have planned an | :00:13. | :00:17. | |
excellent weekend with tickets that are competitively priced. Dublin | :00:18. | :00:22. | |
Council decided to seek and hold Armed Forces Day, we are | :00:23. | :00:27. | |
contributing to that, it did not cost free. We are contributing | :00:28. | :00:31. | |
?80,000 and we have worked closely with them to make sure extra train | :00:32. | :00:35. | |
carriages are laid on so people can get there. Why not make it free? | :00:36. | :00:46. | |
While some commentators wish to make political capital out of this for | :00:47. | :00:50. | |
some reason we are determined to make it a success. There are | :00:51. | :00:53. | |
substantial costs than running these events and it is appropriate people | :00:54. | :01:01. | |
be towards enjoying it. But Armed Forces Day is free. That is to make | :01:02. | :01:08. | |
sure it is a success. Why doesn't the Scottish Government put money | :01:09. | :01:12. | |
into Bannockburn and make that free? We are doing what we have planned to | :01:13. | :01:20. | |
do. We put money into homecoming events to make sure they are | :01:21. | :01:25. | |
successful. On one day we are working with planning chiefs in | :01:26. | :01:30. | |
Scotland and have a very special choir and the on Monday for | :01:31. | :01:39. | |
Bannockburn. -- planned day. Let us move on. ?200 million plus several | :01:40. | :01:53. | |
hundred million pounds over a period of years for setting up tax and | :01:54. | :01:58. | |
benefits, are we now revising the Scottish Government estimates? Is it | :01:59. | :02:03. | |
now ?200 million plus several billion more? The Scottish | :02:04. | :02:10. | |
Government has always said there would be an element of setup costs. | :02:11. | :02:21. | |
We set a reasonable figure would be set up. The UK estimate which Danny | :02:22. | :02:32. | |
Alexander brought forward of a 12 times greater amount has been | :02:33. | :02:37. | |
completely discredited. What is completely absent from this debate | :02:38. | :02:42. | |
is the Scottish Government doing the calculations itself and bringing | :02:43. | :02:47. | |
them in a document to put in front of the Scottish people before the | :02:48. | :02:52. | |
vote in the referendum. They could then say this is what we think, is | :02:53. | :02:58. | |
that going to happen? Firstly, that is not quite fair to ours. We have | :02:59. | :03:05. | |
said they will be an element of cost. People want us to be candid | :03:06. | :03:10. | |
about this. We have said they will be costs of the reasonable order. We | :03:11. | :03:17. | |
were ready to negotiate and remain ready to sit around the table and | :03:18. | :03:22. | |
have reasonable discussions as I do in my daily job with UK ministers. | :03:23. | :03:30. | |
What is your best estimate? Tell Makro the UK Government refused to | :03:31. | :03:34. | |
sit down around the table and negotiate these points which is why | :03:35. | :03:40. | |
it is not possible. You have produced documents over the past few | :03:41. | :03:43. | |
weeks which talk about what might happen if Rod activity in the | :03:44. | :03:49. | |
Scottish economy was increased and what then hypothetically that would | :03:50. | :03:54. | |
mean in terms of the size of the Scottish economy. You have put | :03:55. | :03:58. | |
figures on them and publish the document saying vote for | :03:59. | :04:01. | |
independence and it will be brilliant. You can do that which is | :04:02. | :04:05. | |
entirely speculative yet you cannot give the best assessment of what the | :04:06. | :04:11. | |
start-up costs of independence would be? We have put forward the fact we | :04:12. | :04:18. | |
believe the initial start-up costs would be of the order of 200 | :04:19. | :04:24. | |
million. That is just something you picked up from Professor Dunne levy. | :04:25. | :04:30. | |
The UK figures were 12 times that which were completely discredited | :04:31. | :04:34. | |
and probably the biggest exaggeration in the wall of the | :04:35. | :04:39. | |
referendum campaign. You need to come up with some of your own. | :04:40. | :04:42. | |
People cannot understand why you find this so difficult. We have put | :04:43. | :04:50. | |
forward some detail in our white paper and more details in response | :04:51. | :04:54. | |
to the debate as we heard the first minister in the Scottish Parliament. | :04:55. | :04:57. | |
Professor You're watching | :04:58. | :05:01. | |
Sunday Politics Scotland. Let's cross now | :05:02. | :05:03. | |
for the news with Andrew Kerr. A new academic study puts | :05:04. | :05:07. | |
the immediate start-up costs of an independent Scotland | :05:08. | :05:10. | |
at ?200 million. Professor Patrick Dunleavy, | :05:11. | :05:15. | |
of the London School of Economics, said the costs in the event | :05:16. | :05:18. | |
of a yes vote would arise from the need to set up operations | :05:19. | :05:21. | |
like tax and benefits services. SNP ministers said | :05:22. | :05:25. | |
the estimate has blown out of the water the Treasury's start-up | :05:26. | :05:28. | |
figure of more than ?2.5 billion. Better Together said the Scottish | :05:29. | :05:33. | |
government must now set out A woman's been rescued | :05:34. | :05:35. | |
after swimming in the sea off one The incident happened after | :05:36. | :05:41. | |
a party on the island of Egilsay. Two kayakers who went to her | :05:42. | :05:47. | |
aid also got into difficulty. The woman was taken to hospital | :05:48. | :05:51. | |
in Kirkwall, One of the oldest surviving copies | :05:52. | :05:53. | |
of a poem detailing the Battle of Bannockburn has been restored | :05:54. | :06:00. | |
in time for the 700th anniversary. The 1400 line epic poem was written | :06:01. | :06:04. | |
by the Archdeacon of Aberdeen It covers the Scottish wars of | :06:05. | :06:09. | |
independence under Robert the Bruce. A 15th-century copy has been | :06:10. | :06:16. | |
restored by a team at It's day nine of the Queen's Baton | :06:17. | :06:18. | |
relay for the Commonwealth Games and it's making | :06:19. | :06:25. | |
its way through South Lanarkshire. The relay started in Lanark | :06:26. | :06:27. | |
and will carry on throughout the area before eventually finishing | :06:28. | :06:30. | |
the day in Hamilton. A man was arrested in Kilmarnock | :06:31. | :06:34. | |
last night after he attempted to Good afternoon. A fairly clear-cut | :06:35. | :06:53. | |
North-South split for the afternoon, with northern Scotland cloudy, | :06:54. | :06:56. | |
patchy rain and drizzle at times, and Shetland look like predominantly | :06:57. | :07:04. | |
dry. From the lowlands southward, mostly dry. A bright afternoon as | :07:05. | :07:09. | |
well. Temperatures responding to the heat. Up to 20 Celsius across | :07:10. | :07:12. | |
southern Scotland, cooler across the North. It will remain rather | :07:13. | :07:14. | |
cloudy. Now it is time for the look at what | :07:15. | :07:30. | |
is coming up in the week ahead. Tom Gordon from the Sunday Herald | :07:31. | :07:33. | |
and the writer Katie Grant away with me now. -- are here. Let's start | :07:34. | :07:40. | |
with this start-up costs it fascinating or does it put you to | :07:41. | :07:46. | |
sleep? It slightly puts me to sleep but it makes me disbelief both | :07:47. | :07:51. | |
sides. All I can think of is any estimate is always too low. Look at | :07:52. | :07:54. | |
the Holyrood Parliament building, we have so many examples of things | :07:55. | :07:59. | |
saying, it's going to cost this amount, and it cost 67 times that. | :08:00. | :08:07. | |
-- six or seven. Everybody knows 200 million is not going to be of the | :08:08. | :08:11. | |
real cost. Most people are hazy about the figures, but they know it | :08:12. | :08:14. | |
is going to be expensive, and the people who are going to clean up our | :08:15. | :08:19. | |
administrators, lawyers, tax collectors. That is the message that | :08:20. | :08:26. | |
comes through. The British government's paper on this rather | :08:27. | :08:30. | |
blew up in their face, because the Professor Dunleavy's report. Yes, | :08:31. | :08:42. | |
they said 200 billion -- 2 billion, and he blew that up. It has taken a | :08:43. | :08:47. | |
Sunday newspaper, and full crest -- credit to them, to commission a | :08:48. | :08:51. | |
report. The Scottish gunmen should have done that. -- the Scottish | :08:52. | :08:59. | |
government. Obviously, they are now going to be under pressure to give | :09:00. | :09:08. | |
something to people. Yes, Professor Dunleavy turned this paper around | :09:09. | :09:12. | |
very quickly. It could be very heavily caveat heavy, but it is | :09:13. | :09:20. | |
clear, saying what the ups and downs are, the time frames for phasing in | :09:21. | :09:25. | |
these taxes etc, he has done a dry quickly, and why has the Scottish | :09:26. | :09:29. | |
government not done it? This is independence 101. Now don't get | :09:30. | :09:35. | |
overexcited about this, but apparently, Better Together, they | :09:36. | :09:39. | |
are producing leaflets and they are going to send them out to every | :09:40. | :09:42. | |
household in Scotland. You could be on tenterhooks. I am waiting for | :09:43. | :09:47. | |
mine to drop through the door! I can't wait! I wonder if anyone has | :09:48. | :09:53. | |
done a cost benefit analysis on leafleting. Most people will stick | :09:54. | :09:55. | |
them on the bend. I suppose they feel they have got to do them | :09:56. | :09:59. | |
because they -- stick them in the bin. Because campaigns have always | :10:00. | :10:03. | |
done this. I don't think they do make much difference. Perhaps it | :10:04. | :10:09. | |
would make a difference if they did not do it. It is going to cost some | :10:10. | :10:13. | |
enormous sum of money to send them out. Do you think they do any good? | :10:14. | :10:19. | |
I might get a dog to sit next to the letterbox! I don't know how much | :10:20. | :10:27. | |
impact this has. Every time I open a newspaper, a leaflet for that | :10:28. | :10:30. | |
debate. People see this stuff all the time. I do not think eight F | :10:31. | :10:38. | |
will make a big difference. -- a letterbox drop. What you think about | :10:39. | :10:45. | |
this latest thing that David Cameron should debate with Alex Salmond? | :10:46. | :10:52. | |
Alex Salmond said he would debate with Alistair Cameron but only if | :10:53. | :10:57. | |
David Cameron refuses. The damage from David Cameron not doing it is | :10:58. | :11:01. | |
far less of the damage that would be doing if he does do it. All it would | :11:02. | :11:05. | |
say is, Tory toff with David Cameron's accent, which is just like | :11:06. | :11:11. | |
mine, Tory toff against plucky Alex Salmond. I am curious that you say | :11:12. | :11:18. | |
that, you are broadly right of centre in your beliefs, there is an | :11:19. | :11:21. | |
argument from your point of view to say, it is wrong to say that David | :11:22. | :11:26. | |
Cameron... People might not vote Conservative in Scotland, but it is | :11:27. | :11:30. | |
wrong to think that David Cameron is not seen as a credible figure in | :11:31. | :11:33. | |
people in Scotland so he should do it. People would not listen to | :11:34. | :11:37. | |
anything that wasn't said. There would only be this juxtaposition, | :11:38. | :11:45. | |
for the better Cameron -- of David Cameron and Alex Salmond. Pictures | :11:46. | :11:50. | |
do far more than the words, people would stare at that picture and that | :11:51. | :11:52. | |
would be their abiding memory. I think years much better to debate | :11:53. | :11:56. | |
against Alistair Darling who is a Scot. It is practical, I cannot | :11:57. | :12:02. | |
think he would make any other decision. It is not amazing he would | :12:03. | :12:08. | |
agree to a debate with Alex Salmond -- Alistair Darling, because he | :12:09. | :12:12. | |
wants to debate. He had taken his time, at least there will now be a | :12:13. | :12:16. | |
debate. Do you think David Cameron should or should not? I think he | :12:17. | :12:20. | |
should but I understand why he should not. Most sides of the | :12:21. | :12:27. | |
campaign are homing in on Labour voters, and David Cameron presses | :12:28. | :12:29. | |
all the wrong buttons for those people. So you are saying it is the | :12:30. | :12:36. | |
specific audience that up and decided, that they need to appeal | :12:37. | :12:40. | |
to? They are going to have a laser-like focus on undecideds. | :12:41. | :12:46. | |
David Cameron is the wrong person to put up for those people. Are you an | :12:47. | :12:54. | |
armed forces they person or a Bannockburn person? I suppose I | :12:55. | :13:01. | |
would be an Armed Forces Day person, I am a medieval historian, I like | :13:02. | :13:09. | |
that stuff, but the Bannockburn stuff this year, it has a | :13:10. | :13:17. | |
cartoonlike character. Where is the Armed Forces Day is about serving | :13:18. | :13:22. | |
personnel and has more relevance. Which are you going to? I am going | :13:23. | :13:29. | |
to sit them both out, I'm doing to take the kids to the botanic Gardens | :13:30. | :13:35. | |
as usual. If you were going? I would probably go to the free one, it is | :13:36. | :13:42. | |
?60 for the family tickets, you cannot take buddies in, you can't | :13:43. | :13:48. | |
take professional -- buddies in, you can't take professional photographic | :13:49. | :13:51. | |
equipment, it is not selling raided. I will be back next week. | :13:52. | :13:55. | |
Goodbye. Good afternoon. A fairly clear-cut | :13:56. | :13:58. |