22/06/2014 Sunday Politics Scotland


22/06/2014

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Morning folks. Welcome to the Sunday Politics.

:00:33.:00:36.

Welfare reform is one of the government's most popular policies.

:00:37.:00:39.

So Labour says it would be even tougher than the Tories.

:00:40.:00:42.

We'll be asking the Shadow Work and Pensions Secretary if she's got

:00:43.:00:46.

Even Labour supporters worry that Ed Miliband hasn't got what it takes

:00:47.:00:53.

Labour grandees are increasingly vocal about their concerns.

:00:54.:00:58.

Over 50% of Labour voters think they'd do better with a new leader.

:00:59.:01:04.

And what of this leader, he's apparently toxic on the doorstep.

:01:05.:01:07.

The polls say Nick Clegg's more unpopular than Gordon Brown

:01:08.:01:10.

We'll be asking a former Lib Dem leader, what is to be done?

:01:11.:01:16.

Coming up on Sunday Politics Scotland.

:01:17.:01:18.

The latest analysis of setup costs for an independent state, we'll talk

:01:19.:01:22.

to Professor Dunleavy who says March 2016 may be unrealistic.

:01:23.:01:37.

promised an electric car revolution, why so little progress?

:01:38.:01:39.

Nick Watt, Helen Lewis and Janan Ganesh, the toxic tweeters

:01:40.:01:46.

First, the deepening crisis in Iraq, where Sunni Islamists are now

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largely in control of the Syrian-Iraq border, which means

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they can now re-supply their forces in Iraq from their Syrian bases.

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Rather than moving on Baghdad, they are for the moment consolidating

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their grip on the towns and cities they've already taken.

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They also seem to be in effective control of Iraq's

:02:09.:02:10.

biggest oil refinery, which supplies the capital.

:02:11.:02:14.

And there are reports they might now have taken the power

:02:15.:02:16.

Iraqi politicians are now admitting that ISIS,

:02:17.:02:23.

the name of the Sunni insurgents, is better trained, better equipped and

:02:24.:02:26.

far more battle-hardened than the US-trained Iraqi army fighting it.

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Which leaves the fate of Baghdad increasingly in the hands

:02:33.:02:34.

No good news coming out of there, Janan. No good news and no good

:02:35.:02:52.

options either. The West's best strategy is to decide how much

:02:53.:02:56.

support to give to the Iraqi government. The US is sending over

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about 275 military personnel. Do they go further and contemplate

:03:02.:03:04.

their support? General Petraeus argued against it as it might be

:03:05.:03:10.

seen as the US serving as the force of Shia Iraqis -- continue their

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support. Do we contemplate breaking up Iraq? It won't be easy. The Sunni

:03:17.:03:25.

and Shia Muslim populations don't live in clearly bordered areas, but

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in the longer term, do we deal with it in the same way we dealt with the

:03:29.:03:32.

break-up of the Ottoman empire over 100 years ago? In the short-term and

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long-term, completely confounding. Quite humiliating. If ISIS take

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Baghdad I can't think of a bigger ignominy for foreign policy since

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Suez. If Iraq is partitioned, it won't be up to us. It will be what

:03:51.:03:54.

is happening because of what is happening on the ground. Everything

:03:55.:04:00.

does point to partition, and that border, which ISIS control, between

:04:01.:04:06.

Syria and Iraq, that has been there since it was drawn during the First

:04:07.:04:11.

World War. That is gone as well. An astonishingly humbling situation the

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West, and you can see the Kurds in the North think this is a charge --

:04:15.:04:23.

chance for authority. They think this is the chance to get the

:04:24.:04:26.

autonomy they felt they deserved a long time. Janan is right. We can't

:04:27.:04:32.

do much in the long term, but we have to decide on the engagement.

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And the other people wish you'd be talking turkey, because if there is

:04:37.:04:39.

some blowback and the fighters come back, they are likely to come back

:04:40.:04:44.

from Turkey. Where is Iran in all of this? There were reports last week

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that the Revolutionary guard, the head of it, he was already in

:04:50.:04:52.

Baghdad with 67 advisers and there might have been some brigades that

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have gone there as well. Where are they? What has happened? I'm pretty

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sure the Prime Minister of Iraq is putting more faith in Iran than the

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White House and the British. I think they are running the show, in

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technical terms. John Kerry is flying into Cairo this morning, and

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what is his message? It is twofold. One is to Arab countries, do more to

:05:22.:05:25.

encourage an inclusive government in Iraq, mainly Sunni Muslims in the

:05:26.:05:30.

government, and the Arab Gulf states should stop funding insurgents in

:05:31.:05:35.

Iraq. You think, Iraq, it's potentially going to break up, so

:05:36.:05:41.

this sounds a bit late in the day and a bit weak. It gets

:05:42.:05:44.

fundamentally to the problem, what can we do? Niall Ferguson has a big

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piece in the Sunday Times asking if this is place where we cannot doing

:05:49.:05:52.

anything. He doesn't want to do anything. By the way, that is what

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most Americans think. That is what opinion polls are showing. You have

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George Osborne Michael Gold who would love to get involved but they

:06:03.:06:06.

cannot because of the vote in parliament on Syria lasted -- George

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Osborne and Michael Gove. This government does not have the stomach

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for military intervention. We will see how events unfold on the ground.

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All parties are agreed that Britain's 60-year old multi-billion

:06:18.:06:20.

The Tory side of the Coalition think their reforms are necessary

:06:21.:06:25.

and popular, though they haven't always gone to time or to plan.

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In the eight months she's had since she became Shadow Secretary of State

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for Work and Pensions, Rachel Reeves has talked the talk about getting

:06:33.:06:39.

people off benefits, into work and lowering the overall welfare bill.

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her first interview in the job she threatened "We would

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But Labour has opposed just about every change the Coalition

:06:45.:06:48.

has proposed to cut the cost and change the culture of welfare.

:06:49.:06:52.

Child benefit, housing benefit, the ?26,000 benefit cap -

:06:53.:06:55.

They've been lukewarm about the government's flagship Universal

:06:56.:07:01.

Credit scheme - which rolls six benefit payments into one - and

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And Labour has set out only two modest welfare cuts.

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This week, Labour said young people must have skills or be in training

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That will save ?65 million, says Labour, though the cost

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And cutting winter fuel payments for richer pensioners which will

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Not a lot in a total welfare bill of around ?200 billion.

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And with welfare cuts popular among even Labour voters, they will soon

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have to start spelling out exactly what Labour welfare reform means.

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Welcome. Good morning. Why do you want to be tougher than the Tories?

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We want to be tough in getting the welfare bill down. Under this

:07:57.:08:00.

government, the bill will be ?13 million more than the government set

:08:01.:08:03.

out in 2010 and I don't think that is acceptable. We should try to

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control the cost of Social Security. But the welfare bill under the next

:08:09.:08:12.

Labour government will fall? It will be smaller when you end the first

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parliament than when you started? We signed up to the capping welfare but

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that doesn't see social security costs ball, it sees them go up in

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line with with inflation or average earnings -- costs fall. So where

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flair will rise? We have signed up to the cap -- welfare will rise? We

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have signed up to the cap. We will get the costs under control and they

:08:37.:08:40.

haven't managed to achieve it. The government is spending ?13 billion

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more on Social Security and the reason they are doing it is because

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the minimum wage has not kept pace with the cost of living so people

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are reliant on tax credits. They are not building houses and people are

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relying on housing benefit. We have a record number of people on zero

:08:57.:09:02.

hours contracts. I'm still not clear if you will cut welfare if you get

:09:03.:09:06.

in power. Nobody is saying that the cost of welfare is going to fall.

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The welfare cap sees that happening gradually. That is a Tory cap. And

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you've accepted it. You're being the same as the Tories, not to. If they

:09:18.:09:25.

had a welfare cap, they would have breached it in every year of the

:09:26.:09:28.

parliament. Social Security will be higher than the government set out

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because they failed to control it. You read the polls, and the party

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does lots of its own polling, and you're scared of being seen as the

:09:37.:09:40.

welfare party. You don't really believe all of this anti-welfare

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stuff? We are the party of work, not welfare. The Labour Party was set up

:09:47.:09:49.

in the first place because we believe in the dignity of work and

:09:50.:09:51.

we believe that work should pay wages can afford to live on. I make

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no apologies for being the party of work. We are not the welfare party,

:09:56.:10:00.

we are the party of work. Even your confidential strategy document

:10:01.:10:05.

admits that voters don't trust you on immigration, the economy, this is

:10:06.:10:08.

your own people, and welfare. You are not trusted on it. The most

:10:09.:10:13.

recent poll showed Labour slightly ahead of the Conservative Party on

:10:14.:10:16.

Social Security, probably because they have seen the incompetence and

:10:17.:10:21.

chaos at the Department for Work and Pensions under Iain Duncan Smith.

:10:22.:10:25.

Your own internal document means that the voters don't trust you on

:10:26.:10:31.

welfare reform. That is why we have shown some of this tough things we

:10:32.:10:34.

will do like the announcement that Ed Miliband made earlier this week,

:10:35.:10:39.

that young people without basic qualifications won't be entitled to

:10:40.:10:43.

just sign on for benefits, they have to sign up for training in order to

:10:44.:10:46.

receive support. That is the right thing to do by that group of young

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people, because they need skills to progress. We will, once that. -- we

:10:50.:10:59.

will, onto that. You say you criticise the government that it had

:11:00.:11:04.

a cap and wouldn't have met it, but every money-saving welfare reform,

:11:05.:11:08.

you voted against it. How is that being tougher? The most recent bout

:11:09.:11:15.

was the cap on overall welfare expenditure, and we went through the

:11:16.:11:19.

lobbies and voted for the Tories. You voted against the benefit cap,

:11:20.:11:24.

welfare rating, you voted against, child benefit schemes, you voted

:11:25.:11:29.

against. You can't say we voted against everything when we voted

:11:30.:11:31.

with the Conservatives in the most recent bill with a cap on Social

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Security. It's just not correct to say. The last time we voted, we

:11:36.:11:43.

walked through the lobby with them. You voted on the principle of the

:11:44.:11:49.

cap. You voted on every step that would allow the cap to be met. Every

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single one. The most recent vote was not on the principle of the cap, it

:11:55.:11:58.

was on a cap of Social Security in the next Parliament and we signed up

:11:59.:12:01.

for that. It was Ed Miliband who called her that earlier on. Which

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welfare reform did you vote for? We voted for the cap. Other than that?

:12:06.:12:12.

We have supported universal credit. You voted against it in the third

:12:13.:12:17.

reading. We voted against some of the specifics. If you look at

:12:18.:12:22.

universal credit, they have had to write off nearly ?900 million of

:12:23.:12:27.

spending. I'm not on the rights and wrongs, I'm trying to work out what

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you voted for. Some of the things we are going to go further than the

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government with. For example, cutting benefits for young people

:12:35.:12:40.

who don't sign of the training. The government had introduced that. For

:12:41.:12:43.

example, saying that the richest pensioners should not get the winter

:12:44.:12:45.

fuel allowance, that is something the government haven't signed up.

:12:46.:12:49.

You would get that under Labour and this government haven't signed up

:12:50.:12:53.

for it. ?100 million on the winter fuel allowance and ?65 million on

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youth training. ?165 million. How big is the welfare budget? The cap

:13:00.:13:05.

would apply to ?120 billion. And you've saved 125 -- 165 million?

:13:06.:13:12.

Those are cuts that we said we would do in government. If you look at the

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real prize from the changes Ed Miliband announced in the youth

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allowance, it's not the short-term savings, it's the fact that each of

:13:21.:13:24.

these young people, who are currently on unemployment benefits

:13:25.:13:27.

without the skills we know they need to succeed in life, they will cost

:13:28.:13:33.

the taxpayer ?2000 per year. I will come onto that. You mentioned

:13:34.:13:37.

universal credit, which the government regards as the flagship

:13:38.:13:41.

reform. It's had lots of troubles with it and it merges six benefits

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into one. You voted against it in the third reading and given lukewarm

:13:48.:13:50.

support in the past. We have not said he would abandon it, but now

:13:51.:13:56.

you say you are for it. You are all over the place. We set up the rescue

:13:57.:14:00.

committee in autumn of last year because we have seen from the

:14:01.:14:03.

National Audit Office and the Public Accounts Committee, report after

:14:04.:14:08.

report showing that the project is massively overbudget and is not

:14:09.:14:13.

going to be delivered according to the government timetable. We set up

:14:14.:14:17.

the committee because we believe in the principle of universal credit

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and think it is the right thing to do. Can you tell us now if you will

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keep it or not? Because there is no transparency and we have no idea. We

:14:25.:14:30.

are awash with information. We are not. The government, in the most

:14:31.:14:36.

recent National audit Forest -- National Audit Office statement said

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it was a reset project. This is really important. This is a flagship

:14:42.:14:46.

government programme, and it's going to cost ?12.8 billion to deliver,

:14:47.:14:51.

and we don't know what sort of state it is in, so we have said that if we

:14:52.:14:55.

win at the next election, we will pause that for three months and

:14:56.:15:02.

calling... Will you stop the pilots? We don't know what status they will

:15:03.:15:08.

have. We would stop the build of the system for three months, calling the

:15:09.:15:11.

National Audit Office to do awards and all report. The government don't

:15:12.:15:17.

need to do this until the next general election, they could do it

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today. Stop throwing good money after bad and get a grip of this

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incredibly important programme. You said you don't know enough to a view

:15:25.:15:30.

now. So when you were invited to a job centre where universal credit is

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being rolled out to see how it was working, you refused to go. Why? We

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asked were a meeting with Iain Duncan Smith and he cancelled the

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meeting is three times. I'm talking about the visit when you were

:15:43.:15:45.

offered to go to a job centre and you refused. We had an appointment

:15:46.:15:50.

to meet Iain Duncan Smith at the Department for Work and Pensions and

:15:51.:15:52.

said he cancelled and was not available, but he wanted us to go to

:15:53.:15:57.

the job centre. We wanted to talk to him and his officials, which she

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did. Would it be more useful to go to the job centre and find out how

:16:03.:16:05.

it was working. He's going to tell you it's working fine.

:16:06.:16:19.

Advice Bureau in Hammersmith, they are working to help the people

:16:20.:16:26.

trying to claim universal credit. Iain Duncan Smith cancelled three

:16:27.:16:32.

meetings. That is another issue, I was asking about the job centre. It

:16:33.:16:37.

is not another issue because Iain Duncan Smith fogged us off. This

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week you said that jobless youngsters who won't take training

:16:44.:16:47.

will lose their welfare payments. How many young people are not in

:16:48.:16:56.

work training or education? There are 140,000 young people claiming

:16:57.:17:01.

benefits at the moment, but 850,000 young people who are not in work at

:17:02.:17:07.

the moment. This applies to around 100,000 young people. There are

:17:08.:17:15.

actually 975,000, 16-24 -year-olds, not in work, training or education.

:17:16.:17:22.

Your proposal only applies to 100,000 of them, why? This is

:17:23.:17:29.

applying to young people who are signing on for benefits rather than

:17:30.:17:35.

signing up for training. We want to make sure that all young people...

:17:36.:17:42.

Why only 100,000? They are the ones currently getting job-seeker's

:17:43.:17:46.

allowance. We are saying you can not just sign up to... Can I get you to

:17:47.:17:59.

respond to this, the number of people not in work, training or

:18:00.:18:05.

education fell last year by more than you are planning to help. Long

:18:06.:18:15.

turn -- long-term unemployment is an entrenched problem... This issue

:18:16.:18:23.

about an entrenched group of young people. Young people who haven't got

:18:24.:18:29.

skills and are not in training we know are much less likely to get a

:18:30.:18:33.

job so there are 140,018-24 -year-olds signing onto benefits at

:18:34.:18:40.

the moment. This is about trying to address that problem to make sure

:18:41.:18:44.

all young people have the skills they need to get a job. Your policy

:18:45.:18:50.

is to take away part of the dole unless young unemployed people agree

:18:51.:18:54.

to study for level three qualifications, the equivalent of an

:18:55.:19:00.

AS-level or an NVQ but 40% of these people have the literary skills of a

:19:01.:19:08.

nine-year-old. After all that failed education, how are you going to

:19:09.:19:13.

train them to a level standard? We are saying that anyone who doesn't

:19:14.:19:18.

have that a level or equivalent qualification will be required to go

:19:19.:19:23.

back to college. We are not saying that within a year they have to get

:19:24.:19:28.

up to that level but these are exactly the sorts of people... These

:19:29.:19:33.

people have been failed by your education system. These people are,

:19:34.:19:37.

for the last four years, have been educated under a Conservative

:19:38.:19:42.

government. 18 - 21-year-olds, most of them have their education under a

:19:43.:19:47.

Labour government during which 300,000 people left with no GCSEs

:19:48.:19:53.

whatsoever. I don't understand how training for one year can do what 11

:19:54.:19:59.

years in school did not. We are not saying that within one year

:20:00.:20:02.

everybody will get up to a level three qualifications, but if you are

:20:03.:20:06.

one of those people who enters the Labour market age 18 with the

:20:07.:20:10.

reading skills of a nine-year-old, they are the sorts of people that

:20:11.:20:18.

should not the left languishing. I went to college in Hackney if you

:20:19.:20:21.

should not the left languishing. I you are -- a few weeks ago and there

:20:22.:20:27.

was a dyslexic boy studying painting and decorating. In school they

:20:28.:20:31.

decided he was a troublemaker and that he didn't want to learn. He

:20:32.:20:37.

went back to college because he wanted to get the skills. He said

:20:38.:20:41.

that it wasn't until he went back to college that he could pick up a

:20:42.:20:46.

newspaper and read it, it made a huge difference but too many people

:20:47.:20:52.

are let down by the system. I am wondering how the training will make

:20:53.:20:56.

up for an education system that failed them but let's move on to

:20:57.:21:01.

your leader. Look at this graph of Ed Miliband's popularity. This is

:21:02.:21:07.

the net satisfaction with him, it is dreadful. The trend continues to

:21:08.:21:11.

climb since he became leader of the Labour Party, why? What you have

:21:12.:21:17.

seen is another 2300 Labour councillors since Ed Miliband became

:21:18.:21:21.

the leader of the Labour Party. You saw in the elections a month ago

:21:22.:21:29.

that... Why is the satisfaction rate falling? We can look at polls or

:21:30.:21:34.

actual election results and the fact that we have got another 2000 Labour

:21:35.:21:39.

councillors, more people voting Labour, the opinion polls today show

:21:40.:21:44.

that if there was a general election today we would have a majority of

:21:45.:21:48.

more than 40, he must be doing something right. Why do almost 50%

:21:49.:21:56.

of voters want to replace him as leader? Why do 50% and more think

:21:57.:22:03.

that he is not up to the job? The more people see Ed Miliband, the

:22:04.:22:09.

less impressed they are. The British people seem to like him less. The

:22:10.:22:14.

election strategy I suggest that follows from that is that you should

:22:15.:22:19.

keep Ed Miliband under wraps until the election. Let's look at actually

:22:20.:22:24.

what happens when people get a chance to vote, when they get that

:22:25.:22:29.

opportunity we have seen more Labour councillors, more Labour members of

:22:30.:22:36.

the European Parliament... Oppositions always get more. The

:22:37.:22:42.

opinion polls today, one of them shows Labour four points ahead. You

:22:43.:22:47.

have not done that well in local government elections or European

:22:48.:22:51.

elections. Why don't people like him? I think we have done incredibly

:22:52.:22:57.

well in elections. People must like a lot of the things Labour and Ed

:22:58.:23:02.

Miliband are doing because we are winning back support across the

:23:03.:23:06.

country. We won local councils in places like Hammersmith and Fulham,

:23:07.:23:11.

Crawley, Hastings, key places that Labour need to win back at the

:23:12.:23:17.

general election next year. Even you have said traditional Labour

:23:18.:23:22.

supporters are abandoning the party. That is what Ed Miliband has said as

:23:23.:23:27.

well. We have got this real concern about what has happened. If you look

:23:28.:23:33.

at the elections in May, 60% of people didn't even bother going to

:23:34.:23:38.

vote. That is a profound issue not just for Labour. You said

:23:39.:23:42.

traditional voters who perhaps at times we took for granted are now

:23:43.:23:47.

being offered an alternative. Why did you take them for granted? This

:23:48.:23:53.

is what Ed Miliband said. I am not saying anything Ed Miliband himself

:23:54.:23:59.

has not said. When he ran for the leadership he said that we took too

:24:00.:24:05.

many people for granted and we needed to give people positive

:24:06.:24:08.

reasons to vote Labour, he has been doing that. He has been there for

:24:09.:24:12.

four years and you are saying you still take them for granted. Why? I

:24:13.:24:16.

am saying that for too long we have taken them for granted. We are on

:24:17.:24:21.

track to win the general election next year and that will defy all the

:24:22.:24:31.

odds. You are going to win... Ed Miliband will win next year and make

:24:32.:24:33.

a great Prime Minister. Now to the Liberal Democrats, at the

:24:34.:24:41.

risk of intruding into private grief. The party is still smarting

:24:42.:24:45.

from dire results in the European and Local Elections. The only poll

:24:46.:24:48.

Nick Clegg has won in recent times is to be voted the most unpopular

:24:49.:24:52.

leader of a party in modern British history. No surprise there have been

:24:53.:24:57.

calls for him to go, though that still looks unlikely. Here's

:24:58.:24:58.

Eleanor. Liberal Democrats celebrating,

:24:59.:25:01.

something we haven't seen for a while. This victory back in 1998 led

:25:02.:25:07.

to a decade of power for the Lib Dems in Liverpool. What a contrast

:25:08.:25:12.

to the city's political landscape today. At its height the party had

:25:13.:25:18.

69 local councillors, now down to just three. The scale of the

:25:19.:25:22.

challenge facing Nick Clegg and the Lib Dems is growing. The party is

:25:23.:25:29.

rock bottom in the polls, consistently in single figures. It

:25:30.:25:32.

was wiped out in the European elections losing all but one of its

:25:33.:25:37.

12 MEPs and in the local elections it lost 42% of the seats that it was

:25:38.:25:44.

defending. But on Merseyside, Nick Clegg was putting on a brave face.

:25:45.:25:50.

We did badly in Liverpool, Manchester and London in particular,

:25:51.:25:55.

we did well in other places. But you are right, we did badly in some of

:25:56.:26:01.

those big cities and I have initiated a review, quite

:26:02.:26:05.

naturally, to understand what went wrong, what went right. As Lib Dems

:26:06.:26:11.

across the country get on with some serious soul-searching, there is an

:26:12.:26:15.

admission that his is the leader of the party who is failing to hit the

:26:16.:26:20.

right notes. Knocking on doors in Liverpool, I have to tell you that

:26:21.:26:25.

Nick Clegg is not a popular person. Some might use the word toxic and I

:26:26.:26:31.

find this very difficult because I know Nick very well and I see a

:26:32.:26:34.

principal person who passionately believes in what he is doing and he

:26:35.:26:40.

is a nice guy. As a result of his popularity, what has happened to the

:26:41.:26:51.

core vote? In parts of the country, we are down to just three

:26:52.:26:54.

councillors like Liverpool for example. You also lose the

:26:55.:26:59.

deliverers and fundraisers and the organisers and the members of course

:27:00.:27:03.

so all of that will have to be rebuilt. As they start fermenting

:27:04.:27:08.

process, local parties across the country and here in Liverpool have

:27:09.:27:13.

been voting on whether there should be a leadership contest. We had two

:27:14.:27:19.

choices to flush out and have a go at Nick Clegg or to positively

:27:20.:27:24.

decide we would sharpen up the campaign and get back on the

:27:25.:27:29.

streets, and by four to one ratio we decided to get back on the streets.

:27:30.:27:34.

We are bruised and battered but we are still here, the orange flag is

:27:35.:27:40.

still flying and one day it will fly over this building again, Liverpool

:27:41.:27:45.

town hall. But do people want the Lib Dems back in charge in this

:27:46.:27:50.

city? I certainly wouldn't vote for them. Their performance in

:27:51.:27:54.

Government and the way they have left their promises down, I could

:27:55.:27:59.

not vote for them again. I voted Lib Dem in the last election because of

:28:00.:28:05.

the university tuition fees and I would never vote for them again

:28:06.:28:11.

because they broke their promise. The Lib Dems are awful, broken

:28:12.:28:14.

promises and what have you. I wouldn't vote for them. This is the

:28:15.:28:18.

declaration of the results for the Northwest... Last month, as other

:28:19.:28:23.

party celebrated in the north-west, the Lib Dems here lost their only

:28:24.:28:28.

MEP, Chris Davies. Now there is concern the party doesn't know how

:28:29.:28:33.

to turn its fortunes around. We don't have an answer to that, if we

:28:34.:28:39.

did we would be grasping it with both hands. We will do our best to

:28:40.:28:47.

hold onto the places where we still have seats but as for the rest of

:28:48.:28:52.

the country where we have been hollowed out, we don't know how to

:28:53.:28:56.

start again until the next general election is out of the way. After

:28:57.:29:00.

their disastrous performance in the European elections, pressure is

:29:01.:29:03.

growing for the party to shift its stance. I think there has to be a

:29:04.:29:14.

lancing of the wound, there should in a referendum and the Liberal

:29:15.:29:21.

Democrats should be calling it. The rest of Europe once this because

:29:22.:29:26.

they are fed up with Britain being unable to make up its mind. The Lib

:29:27.:29:31.

Dems are now suffering the effects of being in Government. The party's

:29:32.:29:36.

problem, choosing the right course to regain political credibility.

:29:37.:29:43.

We can now speak to form a Lib Dems leader Ming Campbell. Welcome back

:29:44.:29:48.

to the Sunday Politics. Even your own activists say that Nick Clegg is

:29:49.:29:54.

toxic. How will that change between now and the election? When you have

:29:55.:29:58.

had disappointing results, but you have to do is to rebuild. You pick

:29:59.:30:04.

yourself up and start all over again, and the reason why the

:30:05.:30:08.

Liberal Democrats got 57, 56 seats in the House of Commons now is

:30:09.:30:13.

because we picked ourselves up, we took every opportunity and we have

:30:14.:30:15.

rebuilt from the bottom up. least popular leader in modern

:30:16.:30:27.

history and more unpopular than your mate Gordon Brown. You are running

:30:28.:30:32.

out of time. No one believes that being the leader of a modern

:30:33.:30:36.

political party in the UK is an easy job. Both Ed Miliband and David

:30:37.:30:40.

Cameron must have had cause to think, over breakfast this morning,

:30:41.:30:44.

when they saw the headlines in some of the Sunday papers. Of course it

:30:45.:30:47.

is a difficult job but it was pointed out a moment or two ago that

:30:48.:30:52.

Nick Clegg is a man of principle and enormous resilience if you consider

:30:53.:30:56.

what he had to put up with, and in my view, he is quite clearly the

:30:57.:30:59.

person best qualified to lead the party between now and the general

:31:00.:31:02.

election and through the election campaign, and beyond. So why don't

:31:03.:31:08.

people like him? We have had to take some pretty difficult decisions,

:31:09.:31:12.

and, of course, people didn't expect that. If you look back to the rather

:31:13.:31:19.

heady days of the rose garden behind ten Downing St, people thought it

:31:20.:31:22.

was all going to be sweetness and light, but the fact is, we didn't

:31:23.:31:26.

know then what we know now, about the extent of the economic crisis we

:31:27.:31:30.

win, and a lot of difficult decisions have had to be taken in

:31:31.:31:34.

order to restore economic stability. Look around you. You will see we are

:31:35.:31:39.

not there yet but we are a long way better off than in 2010. You are not

:31:40.:31:43.

getting the credit for it, the Tories are. We will be a little more

:31:44.:31:51.

assertive about taking the credit. For example, the fact that 23

:31:52.:31:55.

million people have had a tax cut of ?800 per year and we have taken 2

:31:56.:31:59.

million people out of paying tax altogether. Ming Campbell, your

:32:00.:32:02.

people say that on every programme like this. Because it is true. That

:32:03.:32:09.

might be the case, but you are at seven or 8% in the polls, and nobody

:32:10.:32:13.

is listening, or they don't believe it. Once

:32:14.:32:21.

is listening, or they don't believe doubt that what we have achieved

:32:22.:32:22.

will be much more easily recognised, and there is no doubt,

:32:23.:32:26.

for example, in some of the recent polls, like the Ashcroft Pole,

:32:27.:32:30.

something like 30% of those polled said that as a result at the next

:32:31.:32:38.

something like 30% of those polled general election, they would prepare

:32:39.:32:40.

their to be a coalition involving the Liberal Democrats. So there is

:32:41.:32:45.

no question that the whole notion of coalition is still very much a live

:32:46.:32:49.

one, and one which we have made work in the public interest. The problem

:32:50.:32:53.

is people don't think that. People see you trying to have your cake and

:32:54.:32:57.

eat it. On the one hand you want to get your share of the credit for the

:32:58.:33:00.

turnaround in the economy, on the other hand you can't stop yourself

:33:01.:33:04.

from distancing yourself from the Tories and things that you did not

:33:05.:33:08.

like happening. You are trying to face both ways at once. If you

:33:09.:33:14.

remember our fellow Scotsman famously said you cannot ride both

:33:15.:33:27.

remember our fellow Scotsman to the terms -- terms of the

:33:28.:33:27.

remember our fellow Scotsman coalition agreement, which is what

:33:28.:33:29.

we signed up to in 2010. In addition, in furtherance of that

:33:30.:33:33.

agreement, we have created things like the pupil premium and the

:33:34.:33:37.

others I mentioned and you were rather dismissive. I'm not

:33:38.:33:40.

dismissive, I'm just saying they don't make a difference to what

:33:41.:33:44.

people think of you. We will do everything in our power to change

:33:45.:33:50.

that between now and May 2015. The interesting thing is, going back to

:33:51.:33:55.

the Ashcroft result, it demonstrated clearly that in constituencies where

:33:56.:34:01.

we have MPs and we are well dug in, we are doing everything that the

:34:02.:34:04.

public expects of us, and we are doing very well indeed. You aren't

:34:05.:34:09.

sure fellow Lib Dems have been saying this for you -- you and your

:34:10.:34:15.

fellow Liberal Dems have been saying this for a year or 18 months, and

:34:16.:34:18.

since then you have lost all of your MEPs apart from one, you lost your

:34:19.:34:22.

deposit in a by-election, you lost 310 councillor, including everyone

:34:23.:34:28.

in Manchester or Islington. Mr Clegg leading you into the next general

:34:29.:34:33.

election will be the equivalent of the charge of the light Brigade. I

:34:34.:34:39.

doubt that very much. The implication behind that lit you

:34:40.:34:43.

rehearsed is that we should pack our tents in the night and steal away.

:34:44.:34:48.

-- that litany. And if you heard in that piece that preceded the

:34:49.:34:51.

discussion, people were saying, look we have to start from the bottom and

:34:52.:34:55.

have to rebuild. That is exactly what we will do. Nine months is a

:34:56.:35:09.

period of gestation. As you well know. I wouldn't dismiss it quite so

:35:10.:35:15.

easily as that. I'm not here to say we had a wonderful result or

:35:16.:35:18.

anything like it, but what I do say is that the party is determined to

:35:19.:35:23.

turn it round, and that Nick Clegg is the person best qualified to do

:35:24.:35:29.

it. Should your party adopt a referendum about in or out on

:35:30.:35:30.

Europe? No, we should stuck to the task, not is what is

:35:31.:36:08.

going to happen in May 2015. Thank you for joining us. Now, let's say

:36:09.:36:10.

goodbye to the viewers in Scotland. Good morning and welcome to

:36:11.:36:17.

Sunday Politics Scotland. The cost of independence,

:36:18.:36:19.

the latest analysis puts the Ed Miliband has unveiled his

:36:20.:36:25.

proposals for benefit reform, we'll ask the Shadow Scottish Secretary

:36:26.:36:31.

how that will play on the doorsteps. 700 years on next weekend,

:36:32.:36:36.

Robert the Bruce will ride again How successful will this event be

:36:37.:36:39.

as Armed Forces Day takes place A row broke out at Holyrood this

:36:40.:36:45.

week about whether the Scottish Government were working on set up

:36:46.:36:55.

costs in the event of a yes vote. Last month it insisted that civil

:36:56.:36:58.

servants had not even begun to work on the calculations

:36:59.:37:03.

because much would depend But on Friday it emerged that the

:37:04.:37:05.

government had advertised a number of business critical posts and

:37:06.:37:09.

were fast tracking applications. The Scottish Government claims it's

:37:10.:37:17.

ensuring The Liberal Democrat leader Willie

:37:18.:37:18.

Rennie and Conservative leader Ruth Davidson tabled questions to

:37:19.:37:23.

the First Minister on the subject last Thursday and asked why those

:37:24.:37:28.

figures wouldn't be available to the We know from the finance secretary

:37:29.:37:43.

in 2012 that he ordered work to build a competency overview of the

:37:44.:37:45.

institutions, gusts and staff numbers required in the event of

:37:46.:37:51.

independence. Last year, the deputy first minister confirmed that work

:37:52.:37:54.

was underway, telling a Commons committee, and I quote, we are doing

:37:55.:37:59.

substantial work on this just now. Suffice to say, it covers not just

:38:00.:38:03.

running costs but the issues around setup. But then, last month, the

:38:04.:38:08.

first Minister's official spokesman said, there was no overview, no

:38:09.:38:15.

document, just, and I quote again, e-mail and jottings. And then this

:38:16.:38:20.

morning, a week after the chief economic adviser said he had done no

:38:21.:38:24.

work, we read reports that the government is rushing out figures to

:38:25.:38:31.

paper over the cracks. They say the work is substantial, then they say

:38:32.:38:34.

it is not. They say it will be published before the referendum but

:38:35.:38:38.

then they say they will not. The people of Scotland have to know,

:38:39.:38:40.

what is going on? The start-up costs of setting up

:38:41.:38:42.

independent institutions have been In May the Treasury claimed they

:38:43.:38:45.

would amount to ?2.7 billion. It cited a study carried out

:38:46.:38:50.

by Professor Patrick Dunleavy He, however, said the figure badly

:38:51.:38:53.

misrepresented his research and that any contribution to the public

:38:54.:39:00.

debate needed to be accurate. In turn, the Scottish government

:39:01.:39:02.

quoted a figure of ?250 million, Today Professor Dunleavy has

:39:03.:39:07.

published a new analysis, It suggests that there would be

:39:08.:39:13.

immediate setup costs of up to ?200 million to create new

:39:14.:39:18.

administrative structures that Several hundred million pounds would

:39:19.:39:22.

need to be spent on new IT systems Costs would increase

:39:23.:39:31.

if negotiations were hostile. And it notes that agreeing

:39:32.:39:37.

the transition to independence Earlier this morning I spoke to

:39:38.:39:41.

the professor and I began by asking him what the total cost of

:39:42.:39:49.

setting up a new country might be. I think we need to keep clear what

:39:50.:40:01.

is a setup cost, and what is some other kind of cost. For example, the

:40:02.:40:08.

tax and benefit system, those contracts, they are continuously

:40:09.:40:15.

coming up for renewal in the UK. So over the next several years, a large

:40:16.:40:20.

portion of all of the UK's major IT contracts will have to be

:40:21.:40:24.

re-elected, and that will cost a lot of money. I don't think we can count

:40:25.:40:30.

Scotland setting up its own tax and benefit system as being just the

:40:31.:40:35.

setup costs, it is part of the investment cost. In that

:40:36.:40:39.

transitional period, would it be possible for an independent Scotland

:40:40.:40:44.

to have a different taxation, for example, or a different benefit

:40:45.:40:48.

system from the rest of the UK? Until the new systems are set up

:40:49.:40:52.

which you seem to be suggesting would be about 2020, 2021? Benefits,

:40:53.:40:59.

according to the Scottish government timetable, would be domesticated in

:41:00.:41:04.

2018, and personal income tax in 2020, and other bits of taxation

:41:05.:41:09.

would take longer. What about something like corporation tax? It

:41:10.:41:12.

is one of their flagship policies, they want to cut that. When could

:41:13.:41:17.

that be done realistically? You have got to choose between making wasn't

:41:18.:41:21.

-- policy choices and changing whole systems. It is possible, it might be

:41:22.:41:26.

difficult and it could be systems. It is possible, it might be

:41:27.:41:30.

difficult and it could expensive to change policy. So to say, we will

:41:31.:41:35.

keep the same corporate tax policy, but we will levy a different level

:41:36.:41:43.

on Scotland. But when you get to benefits, it is quite complicated to

:41:44.:41:47.

have policy variation between the UK and Scotland. The Scottish

:41:48.:41:52.

government has said a couple of things they would not proceed with.

:41:53.:41:56.

But essentially, that is why you need to domesticated your IT,

:41:57.:42:04.

because modern policy relies on IT systems. The existing UK systems are

:42:05.:42:09.

very big, complex legacy systems, very costly to operate. You say

:42:10.:42:14.

there are grounds for ordering, and I am quoting you, the swift

:42:15.:42:18.

transition in busy from a yes vote to an independent Scotland by March

:42:19.:42:23.

2016 is unrealistic or unlikely to happen. Why you say that? That is a

:42:24.:42:31.

footnote! You know, I think when anybody puts forward a timetable,

:42:32.:42:37.

people query the timetable. To go from September this year to March

:42:38.:42:46.

2016 would be quite minding. So -- quite demanding. So you think it

:42:47.:42:52.

would have to be put back a bit? I think Scotland would have to

:42:53.:42:55.

negotiate independence with the rest of the UK. In the process of that,

:42:56.:43:01.

some issues that come up, but it might well be that if Scotland has

:43:02.:43:09.

voted yes, then everybody accepts that this is a top political

:43:10.:43:15.

priority and this timetable will stick after all. We are saying,

:43:16.:43:20.

there is an issue around it as there is about almost every aspect of the

:43:21.:43:27.

transition. You had a meeting with the Scottish government this week,

:43:28.:43:31.

are you officially involved in them trying to do work with setup costs?

:43:32.:43:34.

What is your understanding what their plans are of this issue? I had

:43:35.:43:43.

a whole set of meetings with people in Scotland including and up to the

:43:44.:43:46.

first minister not this week but last week. What is your involvement

:43:47.:43:52.

from now? I don't have any involvement at this point with the

:43:53.:43:58.

Scottish government. Is your understanding the Scottish

:43:59.:43:59.

government itself is now doing work on this? I think that there has been

:44:00.:44:07.

a lot of, kind of, chasing bogeyman here. The idea that the Scottish

:44:08.:44:12.

government has a secret dossier or a set of information that they are

:44:13.:44:17.

hiding has been suggested in the Scottish Parliament, and hinted at

:44:18.:44:24.

by Danny Alexander. This is ironic really, because the person who knows

:44:25.:44:28.

a lot more about what the transition costs for Scotland would be if David

:44:29.:44:33.

Cameron. The big uncertainty is what the UK would do in negotiation.

:44:34.:44:38.

Listening to that was the shadow Scottish Secretary Margaret Curran

:44:39.:44:43.

who joins me now. Whatever we make of the Professor's latest estimates,

:44:44.:44:48.

the basic point here is that the UK government document that said the

:44:49.:44:53.

setup cost of independent Scotland would be ?2.7 billion was just

:44:54.:44:58.

nonsense. You know, I think it is interesting, and the viewers

:44:59.:45:00.

watching this and people throughout Scotland will be questioning now why

:45:01.:45:04.

they are having to look at the Sunday Post this morning to find out

:45:05.:45:07.

the latest stage of where we have got to this. I will come onto what

:45:08.:45:11.

you think the Scottish government will do in the moment. But the basic

:45:12.:45:17.

point is, in outing to the accepted that the figures put out by the

:45:18.:45:24.

British come and work rubbish. -- government were rubbish. Today, we

:45:25.:45:31.

have got the 200 million costs, but they have gone on to say that there

:45:32.:45:35.

are substantial other costs. He said ?700 million. He did not dismiss the

:45:36.:45:45.

?900 million which is setting up the IT systems. That does not get you to

:45:46.:45:53.

?2.7 billion. But the ?900 million for the tax and benefit systems

:45:54.:45:58.

alone, you are in that territory. We are looking at millions of pounds in

:45:59.:46:01.

terms of setting up an independent state and that is just tax and

:46:02.:46:08.

welfare. We know there are other issues, the Ford talks about

:46:09.:46:12.

convocations around EU and NATO and suchlike. It is not unreasonable for

:46:13.:46:19.

us to say, here we are 90 days away from it, the government have been

:46:20.:46:24.

planning, but we do not even know who the staff were working on it.

:46:25.:46:29.

What I do not quite understand is when the Conservative Liberal

:46:30.:46:34.

Democrat coalition puts out figures which are widely accepted now to be

:46:35.:46:38.

inaccurate, to put it mildly, which are said by Professor Dunleavy

:46:39.:46:47.

himself to mislead his -- misrepresent his research, why you

:46:48.:46:50.

want to defend these figures. I just rang to say what people are trying

:46:51.:46:54.

to say out there, what are the reasonable figures which will be

:46:55.:46:59.

involved in setting up an independent Scotland. What do people

:47:00.:47:04.

want to see the Scottish government doing, then? I think we need a

:47:05.:47:11.

degree of transparency, we have had John Swinney and Nicola Sturgeon

:47:12.:47:14.

saying, we would get some sense, they have not fulfilled that. We

:47:15.:47:17.

have now got the first Minister saying we need to set up these civil

:47:18.:47:22.

service jobs looking at it. But another point... Your demand is

:47:23.:47:27.

what, they should publish them figures? Certainly let us know what

:47:28.:47:32.

is going on and who is involved. Professor Dunleavy also said you

:47:33.:47:36.

should never associate transition costs with assets, they should be

:47:37.:47:40.

divided from each other. That is often the stock answer we get from

:47:41.:47:45.

the first Minister, when we just get the general response. We need

:47:46.:47:51.

clarity about... You would expect and demand that the Scottish

:47:52.:47:55.

government publish some figures? Yes, what figures they have they

:47:56.:48:00.

should publish. They could -- they should take a step-by-step through

:48:01.:48:04.

the work they have done and be transparent and public about this.

:48:05.:48:12.

Including about spending. This week, Ed Miliband outlined his proposals

:48:13.:48:19.

for young people. We have been talking to some young people. I

:48:20.:48:26.

think it is difficult, he is busy trying to appeal to swing voters who

:48:27.:48:31.

might have voted Labour before, but he has got to make cuts somewhere.

:48:32.:48:35.

It could do well for him because older people tend to vote for. As a

:48:36.:48:40.

young person, I know people who are on jobseeker's allowance and I know

:48:41.:48:44.

can be difficult. It is a good idea, it will encourage people to go into

:48:45.:48:48.

training rather than sitting around not really doing anything. Young

:48:49.:48:51.

people should be encouraged to work or do training. I am not sure about

:48:52.:48:59.

whether it should be based upon how much money your parents have.

:49:00.:49:04.

Especially if you're looking to go into work, looking to support

:49:05.:49:11.

yourself more. I welcome the proposals around training. I think

:49:12.:49:15.

it is important government give support to young people when they

:49:16.:49:19.

are out of work to get into the work place. I do not like it means

:49:20.:49:24.

testing the benefit, you would not deliver those over 25 so I do not

:49:25.:49:27.

see why you would do it for those under. Once you are 16 and 18, you

:49:28.:49:34.

are a full system with full rights. When the IPPR year or so ago

:49:35.:49:41.

proposed a similar learning or dining scheme, Rachel Reid, your

:49:42.:49:48.

front bench, rejected it, she rejected it, saying, we should not

:49:49.:49:56.

be blaming young people for Tory failure. What has changed? The IPPR

:49:57.:50:04.

was much more wide ranging in its report, it related to young people

:50:05.:50:11.

up to 25. And yours applies only to 21? So if you talk about people from

:50:12.:50:16.

18 to 25, we are blaming young people for Tory failure, but when we

:50:17.:50:20.

talk about 18 to 21, we are not blaming? What the proposal that Ed

:50:21.:50:28.

Miliband and Rachel Reid is very -- has put

:50:29.:50:37.

We know young people have a difficulty with new Morrissey and

:50:38.:50:46.

literacy. But what you are saying is if you are in this particular group

:50:47.:50:52.

and you do not agree to go into further training or education you

:50:53.:50:58.

will not get any benefit. -- new Morrissey and literacy. You will get

:50:59.:51:08.

youth allowance if you go into training. And if you do not you will

:51:09.:51:20.

get nothing? We know what happened to people who do not go into

:51:21.:51:25.

training, they are condemned to a life on benefits without

:51:26.:51:32.

opportunity. Often young people who did not do well at school want a

:51:33.:51:40.

second chance. Encouraging people to go into education everyone would

:51:41.:51:44.

agree is a good thing but you are effectively saying to parents who

:51:45.:51:49.

have problem youngsters who refused to do this that they are going to

:51:50.:51:53.

have to finance those young people because the well-known longer be

:51:54.:51:58.

entitled under Labour to any benefits at all. I think you will

:51:59.:52:02.

find that goes against the stream of argument. Some of these young people

:52:03.:52:09.

who do want to go to college do not get the financial support to go to

:52:10.:52:16.

college. We know there is a problem. Young people who do want to go to

:52:17.:52:22.

college, the way the current benefits system works will not do

:52:23.:52:26.

that. The current system would rather have young people in training

:52:27.:52:32.

than on benefits. I think most parents would encourage their young

:52:33.:52:35.

people to go to college and get financial support. In a few minutes

:52:36.:52:43.

we'll be asking Cabinet secretary Fergus Ewing for his response. But

:52:44.:52:45.

first, Scotland's most famous battlefield will echo to the cries

:52:46.:52:49.

of war next weekend, and the shouts of burger stall holders and t-shirt

:52:50.:52:52.

sellers, as thousands attend Bannockburn Live. It's become a bit

:52:53.:52:56.

of a political football as MSPs speak about concerns over ticket

:52:57.:52:59.

sales and questions arise over the surprising decision to hold Armed

:53:00.:53:03.

Forces Day in a field next door on the same day. Others ask why so much

:53:04.:53:09.

is being spent on one event when other areas of ancestral tourism

:53:10.:53:12.

could do with funding. Here's Andrew Kerr. The stage is being set for

:53:13.:53:26.

what is being built as two spectacular days of medieval

:53:27.:53:31.

re-enactments. Music, food and fashion as organisers prepare to go

:53:32.:53:37.

into battle, they will be hoping for a day like today. Bannockburn

:53:38.:53:44.

secured the way for Scotland to go into independence. The politics of

:53:45.:53:49.

the battlefield have spilled into the present day. Over the past few

:53:50.:53:54.

months MSPs have been ailing concerns over what they saw as low

:53:55.:54:01.

ticket sales, poor marketing and a lack of accountability. The National

:54:02.:54:03.

Trust for Scotland handed over at the event to visit Scotland when

:54:04.:54:10.

they held -- heard through the media that Armed Forces Day would be held

:54:11.:54:16.

on the same day by Stirling Council. Progress has been made. With

:54:17.:54:21.

taxpayers money at stake the local MSP guaranteed success. Visit

:54:22.:54:30.

Scotland have a good solid experience in this area, I am sure

:54:31.:54:37.

it will be successful. Capacity was for 45,000 people to attend over

:54:38.:54:42.

three days. It is now a two-day event with a target of 15,000.

:54:43.:54:49.

10,000 tickets have been sold, two thirds full. ?392,000 of taxpayers

:54:50.:54:57.

money has been ploughed into it. Perhaps the concerns have been

:54:58.:55:01.

expressed because of the apparently unsuccessful gathering in 2009.

:55:02.:55:07.

Taxpayers had to fit the overall bill and some were not paid. We are

:55:08.:55:15.

confident the event itself will break even through ticket revenue

:55:16.:55:19.

and other commercial revenue streams. I do not think there is any

:55:20.:55:26.

worry at all for the taxpayer. All the suppliers are committed to being

:55:27.:55:29.

paid and I think at the end of the day it will be a great event and we

:55:30.:55:34.

will generate sufficient revenue to cover the costs. There is always a

:55:35.:55:43.

risk with any quick sector spend it but we have advanced ticket sales of

:55:44.:55:52.

between two thirds and three quarters. There is a whole surface

:55:53.:55:59.

of things to do at the festival from music to the arts, retail to food.

:56:00.:56:04.

It will showcase the best of Scottish produce, creativity and in

:56:05.:56:11.

a destination that tourists need to discover. With a large amount of

:56:12.:56:19.

public money going into one event there is also a call to spread the

:56:20.:56:25.

largess around to other related areas which could also benefit. It

:56:26.:56:34.

is interesting, it is an area of focus for the tourism industry but I

:56:35.:56:38.

also think it would be good if some smaller centres and museums could

:56:39.:56:43.

get some funding because they are a crucial part of the tourist speedy

:56:44.:56:54.

and is. -- tourist experience. Many Scots and English well next weekend

:56:55.:56:58.

stand on the battlefield where their ancestors fought but when the battle

:56:59.:57:03.

cries died down the could still be some skirmishes. I am joined now by

:57:04.:57:14.

the Cabinet Minister for energy, enterprise and tourism. How many

:57:15.:57:18.

tickets have you sold? Around 10,000. We are very confident we

:57:19.:57:27.

will reach the target of 15,000 for what will be a terrific feast of

:57:28.:57:36.

music, history and food on the 28th and 29th of September. That weekend

:57:37.:57:42.

we also have white vest and Armed Forces Day. It will be a great

:57:43.:57:48.

weekend for Stirling. 50,000 is the target for Bannockburn. I think they

:57:49.:57:54.

are expecting something like 50,000 to turn up for Armed Forces Day. The

:57:55.:58:01.

symbolism and iconography of that is not terrific for you as a supporter

:58:02.:58:08.

of the yes campaign? I am hoping people will have a great weekend

:58:09.:58:17.

out. Quite by giving 50,000 will turn out to support Armed Forces Day

:58:18.:58:20.

and only 15,000 to support Bannockburn? Your viewers can go to

:58:21.:58:31.

Bannockburn live .com for the details of what will be an

:58:32.:58:36.

absolutely tremendous event with singers, re-enactments of the

:58:37.:58:44.

battle... You are turning into a used car salesman in front of my

:58:45.:58:47.

eyes. How about cancelling the question. There will be a

:58:48.:58:55.

magnificent chance for children to hear Rory tellers. People can look

:58:56.:59:05.

up what is on. -- storytellers. To answer your question, of course we

:59:06.:59:09.

remember the Battle of Bannockburn which led to the growth of

:59:10.:59:12.

independence which gained freedom for Scotland and also we remember

:59:13.:59:17.

the sacrifice of the Armed Forces and the First World War who gave so

:59:18.:59:22.

much to preserve freedom. I think we should remember and preserve all of

:59:23.:59:28.

our history. You might be concerned with profits rising doom but I think

:59:29.:59:33.

we can make this weekend a great weekend for all abuzz, not

:59:34.:59:40.

necessarily for politics but for family fun. One of the main reasons

:59:41.:59:45.

they will be 50,000 that Armed Forces Day is because it is free.

:59:46.:59:51.

Why not make an burn free? It is only costing three quarters of ?1

:59:52.:59:55.

million, you could easily justify that as public spending, why not say

:59:56.:00:02.

now, just turn up, it is free and we will get everyone who has read

:00:03.:00:08.

already their money back? I think the way you asked the question is

:00:09.:00:12.

why you are doing your job and I am doing mine. We have planned an

:00:13.:00:17.

excellent weekend with tickets that are competitively priced. Dublin

:00:18.:00:22.

Council decided to seek and hold Armed Forces Day, we are

:00:23.:00:27.

contributing to that, it did not cost free. We are contributing

:00:28.:00:31.

?80,000 and we have worked closely with them to make sure extra train

:00:32.:00:35.

carriages are laid on so people can get there. Why not make it free?

:00:36.:00:46.

While some commentators wish to make political capital out of this for

:00:47.:00:50.

some reason we are determined to make it a success. There are

:00:51.:00:53.

substantial costs than running these events and it is appropriate people

:00:54.:01:01.

be towards enjoying it. But Armed Forces Day is free. That is to make

:01:02.:01:08.

sure it is a success. Why doesn't the Scottish Government put money

:01:09.:01:12.

into Bannockburn and make that free? We are doing what we have planned to

:01:13.:01:20.

do. We put money into homecoming events to make sure they are

:01:21.:01:25.

successful. On one day we are working with planning chiefs in

:01:26.:01:30.

Scotland and have a very special choir and the on Monday for

:01:31.:01:39.

Bannockburn. -- planned day. Let us move on. ?200 million plus several

:01:40.:01:53.

hundred million pounds over a period of years for setting up tax and

:01:54.:01:58.

benefits, are we now revising the Scottish Government estimates? Is it

:01:59.:02:03.

now ?200 million plus several billion more? The Scottish

:02:04.:02:10.

Government has always said there would be an element of setup costs.

:02:11.:02:21.

We set a reasonable figure would be set up. The UK estimate which Danny

:02:22.:02:32.

Alexander brought forward of a 12 times greater amount has been

:02:33.:02:37.

completely discredited. What is completely absent from this debate

:02:38.:02:42.

is the Scottish Government doing the calculations itself and bringing

:02:43.:02:47.

them in a document to put in front of the Scottish people before the

:02:48.:02:52.

vote in the referendum. They could then say this is what we think, is

:02:53.:02:58.

that going to happen? Firstly, that is not quite fair to ours. We have

:02:59.:03:05.

said they will be an element of cost. People want us to be candid

:03:06.:03:10.

about this. We have said they will be costs of the reasonable order. We

:03:11.:03:17.

were ready to negotiate and remain ready to sit around the table and

:03:18.:03:22.

have reasonable discussions as I do in my daily job with UK ministers.

:03:23.:03:30.

What is your best estimate? Tell Makro the UK Government refused to

:03:31.:03:34.

sit down around the table and negotiate these points which is why

:03:35.:03:40.

it is not possible. You have produced documents over the past few

:03:41.:03:43.

weeks which talk about what might happen if Rod activity in the

:03:44.:03:49.

Scottish economy was increased and what then hypothetically that would

:03:50.:03:54.

mean in terms of the size of the Scottish economy. You have put

:03:55.:03:58.

figures on them and publish the document saying vote for

:03:59.:04:01.

independence and it will be brilliant. You can do that which is

:04:02.:04:05.

entirely speculative yet you cannot give the best assessment of what the

:04:06.:04:11.

start-up costs of independence would be? We have put forward the fact we

:04:12.:04:18.

believe the initial start-up costs would be of the order of 200

:04:19.:04:24.

million. That is just something you picked up from Professor Dunne levy.

:04:25.:04:30.

The UK figures were 12 times that which were completely discredited

:04:31.:04:34.

and probably the biggest exaggeration in the wall of the

:04:35.:04:39.

referendum campaign. You need to come up with some of your own.

:04:40.:04:42.

People cannot understand why you find this so difficult. We have put

:04:43.:04:50.

forward some detail in our white paper and more details in response

:04:51.:04:54.

to the debate as we heard the first minister in the Scottish Parliament.

:04:55.:04:57.

Professor You're watching

:04:58.:05:01.

Sunday Politics Scotland. Let's cross now

:05:02.:05:03.

for the news with Andrew Kerr. A new academic study puts

:05:04.:05:07.

the immediate start-up costs of an independent Scotland

:05:08.:05:10.

at ?200 million. Professor Patrick Dunleavy,

:05:11.:05:15.

of the London School of Economics, said the costs in the event

:05:16.:05:18.

of a yes vote would arise from the need to set up operations

:05:19.:05:21.

like tax and benefits services. SNP ministers said

:05:22.:05:25.

the estimate has blown out of the water the Treasury's start-up

:05:26.:05:28.

figure of more than ?2.5 billion. Better Together said the Scottish

:05:29.:05:33.

government must now set out A woman's been rescued

:05:34.:05:35.

after swimming in the sea off one The incident happened after

:05:36.:05:41.

a party on the island of Egilsay. Two kayakers who went to her

:05:42.:05:47.

aid also got into difficulty. The woman was taken to hospital

:05:48.:05:51.

in Kirkwall, One of the oldest surviving copies

:05:52.:05:53.

of a poem detailing the Battle of Bannockburn has been restored

:05:54.:06:00.

in time for the 700th anniversary. The 1400 line epic poem was written

:06:01.:06:04.

by the Archdeacon of Aberdeen It covers the Scottish wars of

:06:05.:06:09.

independence under Robert the Bruce. A 15th-century copy has been

:06:10.:06:16.

restored by a team at It's day nine of the Queen's Baton

:06:17.:06:18.

relay for the Commonwealth Games and it's making

:06:19.:06:25.

its way through South Lanarkshire. The relay started in Lanark

:06:26.:06:27.

and will carry on throughout the area before eventually finishing

:06:28.:06:30.

the day in Hamilton. A man was arrested in Kilmarnock

:06:31.:06:34.

last night after he attempted to Good afternoon. A fairly clear-cut

:06:35.:06:53.

North-South split for the afternoon, with northern Scotland cloudy,

:06:54.:06:56.

patchy rain and drizzle at times, and Shetland look like predominantly

:06:57.:07:04.

dry. From the lowlands southward, mostly dry. A bright afternoon as

:07:05.:07:09.

well. Temperatures responding to the heat. Up to 20 Celsius across

:07:10.:07:12.

southern Scotland, cooler across the North. It will remain rather

:07:13.:07:14.

cloudy. Now it is time for the look at what

:07:15.:07:30.

is coming up in the week ahead. Tom Gordon from the Sunday Herald

:07:31.:07:33.

and the writer Katie Grant away with me now. -- are here. Let's start

:07:34.:07:40.

with this start-up costs it fascinating or does it put you to

:07:41.:07:46.

sleep? It slightly puts me to sleep but it makes me disbelief both

:07:47.:07:51.

sides. All I can think of is any estimate is always too low. Look at

:07:52.:07:54.

the Holyrood Parliament building, we have so many examples of things

:07:55.:07:59.

saying, it's going to cost this amount, and it cost 67 times that.

:08:00.:08:07.

-- six or seven. Everybody knows 200 million is not going to be of the

:08:08.:08:11.

real cost. Most people are hazy about the figures, but they know it

:08:12.:08:14.

is going to be expensive, and the people who are going to clean up our

:08:15.:08:19.

administrators, lawyers, tax collectors. That is the message that

:08:20.:08:26.

comes through. The British government's paper on this rather

:08:27.:08:30.

blew up in their face, because the Professor Dunleavy's report. Yes,

:08:31.:08:42.

they said 200 billion -- 2 billion, and he blew that up. It has taken a

:08:43.:08:47.

Sunday newspaper, and full crest -- credit to them, to commission a

:08:48.:08:51.

report. The Scottish gunmen should have done that. -- the Scottish

:08:52.:08:59.

government. Obviously, they are now going to be under pressure to give

:09:00.:09:08.

something to people. Yes, Professor Dunleavy turned this paper around

:09:09.:09:12.

very quickly. It could be very heavily caveat heavy, but it is

:09:13.:09:20.

clear, saying what the ups and downs are, the time frames for phasing in

:09:21.:09:25.

these taxes etc, he has done a dry quickly, and why has the Scottish

:09:26.:09:29.

government not done it? This is independence 101. Now don't get

:09:30.:09:35.

overexcited about this, but apparently, Better Together, they

:09:36.:09:39.

are producing leaflets and they are going to send them out to every

:09:40.:09:42.

household in Scotland. You could be on tenterhooks. I am waiting for

:09:43.:09:47.

mine to drop through the door! I can't wait! I wonder if anyone has

:09:48.:09:53.

done a cost benefit analysis on leafleting. Most people will stick

:09:54.:09:55.

them on the bend. I suppose they feel they have got to do them

:09:56.:09:59.

because they -- stick them in the bin. Because campaigns have always

:10:00.:10:03.

done this. I don't think they do make much difference. Perhaps it

:10:04.:10:09.

would make a difference if they did not do it. It is going to cost some

:10:10.:10:13.

enormous sum of money to send them out. Do you think they do any good?

:10:14.:10:19.

I might get a dog to sit next to the letterbox! I don't know how much

:10:20.:10:27.

impact this has. Every time I open a newspaper, a leaflet for that

:10:28.:10:30.

debate. People see this stuff all the time. I do not think eight F

:10:31.:10:38.

will make a big difference. -- a letterbox drop. What you think about

:10:39.:10:45.

this latest thing that David Cameron should debate with Alex Salmond?

:10:46.:10:52.

Alex Salmond said he would debate with Alistair Cameron but only if

:10:53.:10:57.

David Cameron refuses. The damage from David Cameron not doing it is

:10:58.:11:01.

far less of the damage that would be doing if he does do it. All it would

:11:02.:11:05.

say is, Tory toff with David Cameron's accent, which is just like

:11:06.:11:11.

mine, Tory toff against plucky Alex Salmond. I am curious that you say

:11:12.:11:18.

that, you are broadly right of centre in your beliefs, there is an

:11:19.:11:21.

argument from your point of view to say, it is wrong to say that David

:11:22.:11:26.

Cameron... People might not vote Conservative in Scotland, but it is

:11:27.:11:30.

wrong to think that David Cameron is not seen as a credible figure in

:11:31.:11:33.

people in Scotland so he should do it. People would not listen to

:11:34.:11:37.

anything that wasn't said. There would only be this juxtaposition,

:11:38.:11:45.

for the better Cameron -- of David Cameron and Alex Salmond. Pictures

:11:46.:11:50.

do far more than the words, people would stare at that picture and that

:11:51.:11:52.

would be their abiding memory. I think years much better to debate

:11:53.:11:56.

against Alistair Darling who is a Scot. It is practical, I cannot

:11:57.:12:02.

think he would make any other decision. It is not amazing he would

:12:03.:12:08.

agree to a debate with Alex Salmond -- Alistair Darling, because he

:12:09.:12:12.

wants to debate. He had taken his time, at least there will now be a

:12:13.:12:16.

debate. Do you think David Cameron should or should not? I think he

:12:17.:12:20.

should but I understand why he should not. Most sides of the

:12:21.:12:27.

campaign are homing in on Labour voters, and David Cameron presses

:12:28.:12:29.

all the wrong buttons for those people. So you are saying it is the

:12:30.:12:36.

specific audience that up and decided, that they need to appeal

:12:37.:12:40.

to? They are going to have a laser-like focus on undecideds.

:12:41.:12:46.

David Cameron is the wrong person to put up for those people. Are you an

:12:47.:12:54.

armed forces they person or a Bannockburn person? I suppose I

:12:55.:13:01.

would be an Armed Forces Day person, I am a medieval historian, I like

:13:02.:13:09.

that stuff, but the Bannockburn stuff this year, it has a

:13:10.:13:17.

cartoonlike character. Where is the Armed Forces Day is about serving

:13:18.:13:22.

personnel and has more relevance. Which are you going to? I am going

:13:23.:13:29.

to sit them both out, I'm doing to take the kids to the botanic Gardens

:13:30.:13:35.

as usual. If you were going? I would probably go to the free one, it is

:13:36.:13:42.

?60 for the family tickets, you cannot take buddies in, you can't

:13:43.:13:48.

take professional -- buddies in, you can't take professional photographic

:13:49.:13:51.

equipment, it is not selling raided. I will be back next week.

:13:52.:13:55.

Goodbye. Good afternoon. A fairly clear-cut

:13:56.:13:58.

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