29/06/2014 Sunday Politics Scotland


29/06/2014

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Morning, folks. Welcome to the Sunday Politics.

:00:34.:00:37.

No surprise that Cameron didn't get his way at the European summit.

:00:38.:00:41.

But does it mean Britain has just moved closer to the EU exit?

:00:42.:00:45.

Doctors want to ban smoking outright.

:00:46.:00:51.

or the health lobby's secret plan all along? We'll debate.

:00:52.:00:59.

Too white, too male? We've been crunching the numbers to find out

:01:00.:01:02.

whether Parliament's about to become more like the country.

:01:03.:01:07.

Coming up on Sunday Politics Scotland:

:01:08.:01:09.

Lives could have been saved if the RAF's Tornado fleet had

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according to the official investigation.

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And with me, as always, the best and the brightest political

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panel in the business Nick Watt, Helen Lewis and Janan Ganesh.

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They've had their usual cognac, or Juncker as it's known in

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Luxembourg, for breakfast and will be tweeting under the influence.

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He's a boozing, chain-smoking, millionaire bon viveur who's made

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it big in the world of European politic.

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I speak of Jean-Claude Juncker, the former Prime Minister of Luxembourg

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He'll soon be President of the European Commission,

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He wasn't David Cameron's choice of course.

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But those the PM thought were his allies deserted him and he ended up

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on the wrong end of a 26-2 vote in favour of Arch-Fedrealist Juncker.

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-- on the wrong end of a 26-2 vote in favour of Arch-Federalist

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So where does this leave Mr Cameron's hopes

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of major reform and repatriation of EU powers back to the UK?

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Let's speak to his Europe Minister David Lidington.

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Welcome to the programme. The Prime Minister says that now with Mr

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Juncker at the helm, the battle to keep Britain in the EU has got

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harder. In what way has it got harder? For two reasons. The

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majority of the leaders have accepted the process that shifts

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power, it will not careful, from the elected heads of government right

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cross Europe to the party bosses, the faction leaders in the European

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Parliament and and the disaffection was made clear in many European

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countries. Mr Juncker had a distinguished period as head of

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Luxembourg, and was not a known reformer, but we have to judge on

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how he leads the commission and there were some elements in the

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mandate that the heads of government gave this week to the new incoming

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European Commission that I think are cautiously encouraging for us. The

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Prime Minister talked about those that not everybody wants to

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integrate and to the same extent and speed. Let me just interrupt you.

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What is new about saying that Europe can go closer to closer union at

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different speeds? That has always been the case. It's nothing new.

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Indeed there are precedents, and they are good examples of the

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approach as part of the course and one of the elements that the Prime

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Minister is taking forward in the strategy is to get general

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acceptance that while we agree that most of the partners have agreed to

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the single currency will want to press forward with closer

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integration of their economic and tax policies, but not every country

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in the EU is going to want to do that. We have to see the pattern

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that has grown up enough to recognise there is a diverse EU with

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28 member states and more in the future. We won't all integrate the

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extent. It is a matter of a pattern that is differentiation and

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integration. I understand that. John Major used to call it variable

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geometry, and other phrases nobody used to understand, but the point is

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that you're back benches don't want any union at any speed, even in the

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slow lane. They want to go in the other direction. It depends which

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backbencher you talk to. There's a diverse range of views. I think that

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there is acceptance that the core of the Prime Minister's approaches to

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seek reform of the European Union, for renegotiation after the

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election, then put it to the British people to decide. It won't be the

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British government or ministers that take the final decision, it's the

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British people, provided they are a Conservative government, who will

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take the decision on the basis of the reforms that David Cameron

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secures whether they want to stay in or not. Is there more of a chance,

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not a certainty or probability, but at least more of a chance that with

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Mr Juncker in that position of Britain leaving the EU? I don't

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think we can say that at the moment. I think we can say that the task of

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reform looks harder than it did a couple of weeks ago. But we have do

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put Mr Juncker to the test. I do think he would want his commission

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to be marked and I think that there is, and I find this in numbers

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around Europe, and there is a growing recognition that things

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cannot go on as they have been. Europe, economically, is in danger

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of losing a lot of ground will stop millions of youngsters are out of

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work already that reform. There is real anxiety and a number of

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countries now about the extent to which opinion polls and election

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results are showing a shift of support to both left and right wing

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parties, sometimes outright neofascist movements, expressing

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real content and resentment at Howard in touch -- how out of touch

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decisions have become. You say you are sensing anxiety about the

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condition of Europe, so why did they choose Mr Juncker then? You would

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have to put that question to some of the heads of European government.

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Clearly there were a number for whom domestic politics played a big role

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in the eventual decision that they took. There were some who had signed

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up to the lead candidate process and felt they could not back away from

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that, whatever their private feelings might have been, but I

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think the PM was right to say that this was a matter of principle and

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it shouldn't just be left as a stitch up by the European Parliament

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to tell us what they do. He said, I can't agree to pretend to acquiesce.

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They have to make the opposition clear that go on with reform. Are

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the current terms of membership for us unacceptable? The current terms

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of the membership are very far from perfect. Are they unacceptable? The

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current terms are certainly not ones that I feel comfortable with. The

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Prime Minister described them as unacceptable. Do you think they are?

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We look at the views of the British people at the moment. If you look at

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the polling at the moment, the evidence is that people are split on

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whether they think membership is a good thing. I'm asking what you

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think. David Cameron wants to in -- endorse changes in our interest, but

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also because the biggest market is going to suffer if they don't

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challenge -- grasp the challenge of political and economic reform.

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Newsnight, Friday night, Malcolm Rifkind the former Secretary of

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State said to me that even if the choice was to stay in on the

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existing terms, he would vote to stay in on the existing terms. He

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doesn't necessarily like them, but he would vote to stay in. That is

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the authentic voice of the Foreign Office, isn't it? That is the

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position of your department. Is it your position? Malcolm Rifkind is a

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distinguished and independent minded backbencher. He's not in government

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now. But that is your position. No, the position of the government and

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the Conservative Party in the government is that we believe that

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important changes, both economic and political reforms, are necessary and

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that they are attainable in our interest and those of Europe as a

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whole. Would you vote to stay in on the existing terms? That's not going

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to be a question that the referendum. Really? I know that in

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2017 Europe is going to look rather different to how it looks today. For

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one thing our colleagues in the Eurozone will want and need to press

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ahead with closer integration. That, in our view, needs to be done

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in a way that fully respects the rights of those of us who remain

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outside. Variable geometry, tackling things like the abuse of freedom of

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migration. Those are all in the conclusions from the leader this

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week and we should welcome that. Very briefly, finally, when will

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you, as a government, give us the negotiating position of the

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government? Will you give us what you hope to achieve before the

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election or not? David Cameron set out very clearly in his Bloomberg

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speech that he wanted a Europe that was more democratically accountable,

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more flexible, more at it -- economically competitive. That is

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all very general. When will you lay out the negotiating position? It's

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not general. It is very far from general. We have seen evidence in

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the successful cut of the European budget, the reform of fisheries,

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those reforms have started to take effect. We have won some victories

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and I'm sure the Prime Minister, as we get towards the general election,

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will want to make clear what the Conservative Party position is, and

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perhaps other political leaders will do the same for their party. Thank

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you for joining us this morning. The harsh reality of this is that there

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is a yawning gap between what the Prime Minister can hope to bring

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back and what will satisfy his Conservative backbenchers. Yes, I

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think the Parliamentary Conservative Party is divided into three parts,

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those who would vote to leave the EU regardless, those who would stay

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regardless, and a huge middle ground of people who want to stay in on

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renegotiated terms. These are not three equal parts. Those who would

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vote to stay in regardless are smaller and smaller. Compared to 20

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years ago, tiny. But the people in the middle, generally, would only

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stay in if you secure a renegotiation that will not be

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re-secured. In other words, they are de facto, out by 2017 and the

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referendum. This whole saga of the recent weeks has been the single

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biggest economy in foreign policy under this government. That's not

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what the voters think. -- single biggest ignominy. I mean the failure

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to secure the target. The opinion polls show that standing up against

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Mr Juncker has proved rather popular. I suggest that is not Mr

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Cameron's problem. His problem is that, if in the end he gets only

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because Medic changes, and if he says he still thinks that with these

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changes -- cosmetic changes. And he says that they should stay in, that

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would split the Tory party wide open. Eurosceptics say would be the

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biggest split since the corn laws. He wants to protect the position of

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coming out, and you might get that. He wants to crack down on abuse of

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benefits, and he might get that. He wants to restrict freedom of

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movement for future member states, and that's difficult, because it is

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a treaty change. And he wants to deal with closer union, but that is

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also treaty change. In the Council conclusions, David Cameron was

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encouraged because it said, let's look at closer union, but it did not

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say it would reform. All it said was ever closer union can be interpreted

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in different ways. In other words, we're not going to change it. The

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fundamental problem the David Cameron was that two years ago, when

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he vetoed the fiscal compact, that showed Angela Merkel was unwilling

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to help them and what happened in the last two weeks was that Angela

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Merkel was unable to help him. There is not a single leader of the

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European Union that once Juncker as president, and he doesn't want it,

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he wants the note take a job at the European Council. But there was this

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basic stitch up by the European basic stitch up by the European

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Parliament that meant he was presented, and when Angela Merkel

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put the question over his head there was a huge backlash in Germany and

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she was unable to deliver. I understand that, but I'm looking

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forward to Mr Cameron's predicament. I don't know how he squares the

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circle. It seems inconceivable that he can bring back enough from

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Brussels to satisfy his backbenchers. No, you can't. Most of

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them fundamentally want out. They don't want to be persuaded by

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renegotiations. Where it's hard to draw conclusions from the polling is

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that if you ask people question that sounds like, do you like the fact

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that our Prime Minister has gone to Brussels and stuck it to the man,

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they say yes, but how many people will go to the voting booths and put

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their cross in the box based on Europe? We know mostly voters care

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about Europe as a proxy for immigration fears. In ten people in

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this country could not tell you who John Claude Juncker is Angela Weir

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is replacing. -- and who he is replacing.

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And I'm joined in the studio now by arch-Eurosceptic Conservative MEP,

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Daniel Hannan and from Strasbourg by staunch European and former Liberal

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war? His declared objectives would leave Britain still in the common

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agricultural policy, the common foreign policy, the European arrest

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warrant, so the negotiating aims which we just heard Nick setting out

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wouldn't fundamentally change anything. It would be easy for the

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Government to declare war on any of these things. The danger from your

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point of view as someone who wants to stay in is that if David Cameron

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only gets cosmetic changes, the chance of getting the vote to leave

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the European Union increases, doesn't it? Hypothetically it

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probably does but we have two big things to get through first in

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domestic politics before we even reach a negotiation. One is are we

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going to have the United Kingdom this time next year following the

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referendum in Scotland? Secondly, are the Conservatives after the

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general election next year going to be in a position to pursue a

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negotiation? In other words are they going to be a majority government or

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even a minority government? For the sake of this morning let's assume

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the answer to both is yes, the UK stays intact and against the polls

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they were saying this morning, David Cameron forms an overall majority

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after the election. There is a danger, if he doesn't bring much

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back, that people will vote yes, correct? There is that danger and I

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see a lot of the British press comment this morning saying this

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could be a rerun of the Harold Wilson like negotiation of the

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1970s, a bit cosmetic but enough to say we have got new terms and you

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should go with it. I think what is different however, and this is

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really an appeal if you like, it cannot just be left to the Liberal

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Democrats and coalition government cannot just be left to the Liberal

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to make this case on our Rome. A lot of interest groups across the land

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will have to start being prepared to put their head above the parapet on

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the fundamental - do you want Britain to remain in the European

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Union? Yes or no? Are you willing to put your public reputations on the

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line? We are not getting enough of that at the moment and it is getting

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dangerously close to closing time. Daniel Hannan, David Cameron will

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not get away with this, will he? It will be an acceptable to his party.

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If it is an acceptable to Tory backbenchers it is because it is

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working and they are reflecting what their constituents say. A majority

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of people in the country are unhappy with the present terms. They can see

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there is a huge wide world beyond the oceans and we have confined

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ourselves to this small trade bloc. There is a huge debate to be had

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about whether we could be doing better outside. It is not danger, it

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is democracy, trusting people. If the only person offering a

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referendum at the moment is the Prime Minister, it has serious

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consequences for his party, your party, that's what I'm talking

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about. I am very proud of being part of the party that is trusting people

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to offer this. If he only gets cosmetic changes he cannot carry his

:18:51.:18:56.

party. But ultimately it will not be his party, it is the electorate as a

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whole that has to decide whether the changes are substantive. Everything

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we have been hearing just now is about staying out of future

:19:06.:19:10.

integration, protecting the role of the non-euro countries. People are

:19:11.:19:14.

upset about what is going on today with the EU. They can see laws being

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passed by people they cannot vote for, friendships overseas are

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prejudiced, and they conceive that the European Union has just put in

:19:25.:19:29.

charge in the top slot somebody who wants a United States of Europe into

:19:30.:19:33.

which we will eventually be dragged into as some kind of Providence.

:19:34.:19:39.

Jean-Claude Juncker is a Federalist, you are Federalist, why did the Lib

:19:40.:19:49.

Dems oppose him? We shared the view that whilst you take account of what

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the members of the European Parliament say, ultimately the

:19:55.:19:57.

choice of the presidency in the commission should be the political

:19:58.:20:02.

leaders, the governmental leaders at a national level, and that's why we

:20:03.:20:07.

went down the route we did. It was more to do with the system than the

:20:08.:20:11.

individual. Although I would say that you need to bear in mind, I

:20:12.:20:16.

mean Daniel, I respect him personally and the integrity of his

:20:17.:20:21.

views, as I think he does mine, but to dismiss the European Union as a

:20:22.:20:29.

small trading block globally, when you have got the United States of

:20:30.:20:33.

America, China and other countries acknowledging its importance, it is

:20:34.:20:43.

really Walter Mitty land. Are we closer than... Daniel Hannan, are we

:20:44.:20:56.

closer to an exit after what happened last week? Yes, because the

:20:57.:21:01.

idea that we could get substantive reforms, gets a mythic and powers

:21:02.:21:11.

back and be within a looser, more flexible European Union has plainly

:21:12.:21:19.

been closed off. We have to face up to the actual European Union that

:21:20.:21:24.

has taken shape on our doorstep. Are we going to be part of that or are

:21:25.:21:29.

we going to have a much more semidetached, looser relationship

:21:30.:21:33.

with it which we can either achieve via a unilateral system of power or

:21:34.:21:45.

another way. This debate is never-ending, it is going on and on

:21:46.:21:50.

and has bedevilled British prime ministers for as long as I can

:21:51.:21:53.

remember. Shouldn't the Lib Dems change their stance on the

:21:54.:21:58.

referendum yet again let's just have this in-out referendum and have it

:21:59.:22:04.

sided one way or another? Our position remains clear. If there is

:22:05.:22:09.

a constitutional issue put before us in terms of treaty changes then we

:22:10.:22:17.

will have a referendum. Why not now? I am probably the wrong person to

:22:18.:22:27.

ask because I argued and voted for a referendum on Maastricht because I

:22:28.:22:32.

thought that was a constitutional treaty. Anything that makes the

:22:33.:22:35.

Queen a citizen of the European Union surely has constitutional

:22:36.:22:42.

implications. Anyway, 20 years on we are where we are and we need to

:22:43.:22:47.

established common vocabulary. You talk about federalism. What do we

:22:48.:22:55.

mean? Most of the people operating in the European Parliament and the

:22:56.:22:58.

institution across the road, the Council of Europe, they mean by

:22:59.:23:03.

federalism decentralisation of powers, not a Brussels superstate

:23:04.:23:10.

but actually the kind of decentralisation that maintains

:23:11.:23:13.

national characteristics and pools resources and sovereignty where it

:23:14.:23:23.

makes sense. Mr Juncker, who is now going to be in charge of the

:23:24.:23:26.

Brussels commission, he believes in a single EU reform policy, an EU

:23:27.:23:37.

wide minimum wage and EU wide taxes. You said this week that you

:23:38.:23:41.

liked the sound of Juncker federalism. Does that sound good to

:23:42.:23:48.

you? No, and I think the new president of the commission will be

:23:49.:23:52.

disappointed if he puts forward these views because although we only

:23:53.:23:58.

had Hungary voting with us, I think if you go to other countries,

:23:59.:24:03.

France, Poland, Scandinavia, they are not going to buy that kind of

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menu. What they mean by federalism is the continental concept, also the

:24:10.:24:15.

North American concept, that we can sit very happily... They have an

:24:16.:24:23.

army, a federal police force, federal taxation. Yes, but in terms

:24:24.:24:32.

of the political institutions which is what we are discussing here, you

:24:33.:24:36.

can have the supranational, the European level, whilst still having

:24:37.:24:41.

the very vibrant national, and indeed as we are practising in the

:24:42.:24:46.

United Kingdom the subnational. A very brief final word from you,

:24:47.:24:52.

Daniel. That is ultimately going to be the choice. The European Union is

:24:53.:24:58.

an evolving dynamic, we can see the direction it is going in. Do we want

:24:59.:25:02.

to be part of that? I suspect Charles Kennedy would have loved a

:25:03.:25:07.

referendum. I cannot help but notice his party is going downhill since he

:25:08.:25:22.

was running it. It is illegal to light up in the workplace, pubs and

:25:23.:25:27.

restaurants. Now the British Medical Association has voted to outlaw

:25:28.:25:30.

everywhere but not everybody at once. It would apply to anyone born

:25:31.:25:36.

after the year 2000. In a moment we will debate the merits of those

:25:37.:25:41.

plans but first he is Adam. There was a time when to be British

:25:42.:25:47.

was to be a smoker. 1948 was the year off peak fag with 82% of men

:25:48.:25:52.

smoking mainly cigarettes but it was a pipe that Harold Wilson used as a

:25:53.:25:57.

political prop to help with the hard-hitting interviews they did in

:25:58.:26:01.

those days. The advertisements make out pipe smokers to be more virile,

:26:02.:26:12.

more fascinating men than anybody else. Do you thought -- have that

:26:13.:26:17.

thought anywhere in your mind? No. It changed in 2006 when smoking in

:26:18.:26:28.

enclosed places was banned. I would rather be inside but unfortunately

:26:29.:26:31.

we have got to do what this Government tells us to do. I think

:26:32.:26:38.

it is good, it is calm and you can breathe. Research suggests it has

:26:39.:26:43.

improved the health of bar workers no end and reduced childhood asthma.

:26:44.:26:48.

Now just one in five adults is a smoker. Coming next, crackdowns on

:26:49.:26:53.

those newfangled e-cigarettes, smoking in cars and possibly the

:26:54.:26:58.

introduction of plain packaging. There is still those who take pride

:26:59.:27:05.

in smoking and see it as a war on freedom.

:27:06.:27:18.

We're joined now by Dr Vivienne Nathanson

:27:19.:27:21.

from the British Medical Association who voted for a graduated ban

:27:22.:27:24.

on smoking at their conference last week, and Simon Clark

:27:25.:27:28.

They're here to go head-to-head. There are plenty of things which are

:27:29.:27:37.

bad for our health, why single out cigarettes? We need some sugar in

:27:38.:27:47.

our diets but the fact is that we need to stop people smoking as

:27:48.:27:51.

children because if we can do that, the likelihood that they will start

:27:52.:27:56.

smoking is very small. In no circumstances is smoking good for

:27:57.:28:01.

you. There are lots of smokers who live long, healthy lives but we

:28:02.:28:06.

totally accept smoking is a risk to your health and adults have to make

:28:07.:28:11.

that decision, just as you make the decision about drinking alcohol,

:28:12.:28:16.

eating fatty foods and drinking sugary drinks. This proposal is

:28:17.:28:19.

totally impractical. It will create a huge black market in cigarettes

:28:20.:28:24.

which will get bigger every year. They say this is about stopping

:28:25.:28:27.

children smoking but there is already a law in place that stops

:28:28.:28:34.

shopkeepers from selling cigarettes to children. This target adults so

:28:35.:28:39.

you could have the bizarre situation in the year 3035 for example where a

:28:40.:28:45.

36-year-old can go into shops to buy cigarettes but if you are 35 you

:28:46.:28:49.

will be denied that, which is ludicrous. The point is that the

:28:50.:28:54.

younger you start smoking the more likely you will become heavily

:28:55.:28:58.

addicted. I take the point, but the point he is saying is that if this

:28:59.:29:03.

becomes law, down the road, if you go into shops to buy cigarettes you

:29:04.:29:08.

would have to take your birth certificate, wouldn't you? We have

:29:09.:29:13.

no idea how the legislation would be written but the key point is that if

:29:14.:29:17.

we can stop young people from starting to smoke, we will in 20

:29:18.:29:22.

years have a whole group of people who have never smoked so you won't

:29:23.:29:27.

have that problem of people who are smokers and they are now in their

:29:28.:29:31.

20s and 30s. Or you will have a lot of younger people who get cigarettes

:29:32.:29:35.

the way they currently get illegal drugs now. They are already getting

:29:36.:29:39.

cigarettes illegally and we have to deal with that. We have got to get

:29:40.:29:45.

better. The Government has not been able to stop it. We know this is

:29:46.:29:56.

going to kill 50%... When you are 15 you think you will live for ever.

:29:57.:30:00.

Indeed but they also do it as rebellion and because they see

:30:01.:30:04.

adults and it is remarkably easy to buy cigarettes. Whatever the case is

:30:05.:30:09.

for individual choice, won't most people agree that if you could stop

:30:10.:30:13.

young people smoking, so that through the rest of their lives they

:30:14.:30:17.

never smoked, that would be worth doing? You get 16 or 17-year-olds

:30:18.:30:27.

who already do that. Is it worth trying? When the government

:30:28.:30:33.

increased the age at which shopkeepers could sell from 16 to

:30:34.:30:37.

18, we supported it. We don't support a ban on proxy purchasing,

:30:38.:30:42.

we support reasonable measures, but this is unreasonable. This proposal

:30:43.:30:45.

says a lot about the BMA, because this week the BMA also passed a

:30:46.:30:51.

motion to ban the use of E cigarettes in public places. There

:30:52.:30:54.

is no evidence that they are dangerous to health, so why are they

:30:55.:30:58.

doing that? They are becoming a temperance society. This is not

:30:59.:31:02.

about public health, it's an old-fashioned temperance society and

:31:03.:31:05.

they have to get their act together because they are bringing the

:31:06.:31:09.

medical profession into disrepute. We were having argument is about

:31:10.:31:14.

things that people buy large accept, smoking in bars or public places,

:31:15.:31:19.

but the real aim of the BMA was the total banning of cigarettes

:31:20.:31:21.

altogether. This would suggest that that was true to claim that. It's

:31:22.:31:28.

not about a ban, it's about a move to a country where nobody wants to

:31:29.:31:32.

smoke and no one is a smoker. But it would be illegal to smoke. It would

:31:33.:31:37.

be illegal to buy, not smoke, and there's a difference between two. So

:31:38.:31:43.

even if I am born in the year 2000, it would still be illegal to smoke,

:31:44.:31:47.

just illegal to buy the cigarettes? Indeed. The point being that the

:31:48.:31:53.

habit of smoking is very strongly linked to your ability to buy, so

:31:54.:31:57.

that is why things like Price and availability and marketing are so

:31:58.:32:02.

important. People will flood across the Channel with the cigarettes. One

:32:03.:32:06.

thing you will find is that throughout the world people is

:32:07.:32:08.

looking at -- people are looking at the same kind of measures, and

:32:09.:32:13.

different countries like Australia, they were the first with a

:32:14.:32:16.

standardised packaging. Other countries will follow, because all

:32:17.:32:19.

of us are facing the fact that we can't afford to pay for the

:32:20.:32:25.

tragedy. There will be people waiting to flood the market with

:32:26.:32:29.

cigarettes. This is nonsense. Thanks for both coming and going

:32:30.:32:32.

"Unless we have more equal head-to-head.

:32:33.:32:35.

"Unless we have more equal representation, our politics won't

:32:36.:32:38.

be half as good as it should be." So said David Cameron back in 2009.

:32:39.:32:41.

So how's it going? Well, you can judge the quality

:32:42.:32:44.

of the politics for yourself, but we've been crunching

:32:45.:32:46.

the numbers to find out what parliament might look like after

:32:47.:32:49.

the next year's general election. Here's Giles.

:32:50.:32:53.

Politicians are elected to Parliament to represent their

:32:54.:32:57.

constituents, but the make-up of Parliament does not reflect society

:32:58.:33:03.

well at all the parties it. In 2010 more women and ethnic minority

:33:04.:33:05.

candidates entered Westminster but not significantly more inner chamber

:33:06.:33:15.

still dominated by white males. Looking at the current make-up of

:33:16.:33:20.

the Commons, Labour has 83 female MPs, the Conservative have 47 women

:33:21.:33:26.

MPs, which is just over 47% -- and the Lib Dems have 12% of the

:33:27.:33:31.

parties. All of the parties have selected parliaments in those seats

:33:32.:33:35.

where existing MPs are retiring and to fight seats at the next

:33:36.:33:38.

election, and they've all been trying to up the number of women and

:33:39.:33:41.

ethnic minorities because discounts and can be capitalised on. A picture

:33:42.:33:46.

tells a thousand words. Look at the all-male front bench before us. And

:33:47.:33:51.

he says he wants to represent the whole country. Despite the jibe, the

:33:52.:33:56.

Labour Party know they have a long way to go on the issue of being

:33:57.:33:58.

representative. So we way to go on the issue of being

:33:59.:34:09.

look at this particular area of lack of women and ethnic minorities.

:34:10.:34:10.

In the most marginal, 40 have women candidates, that would mean if they

:34:11.:34:42.

got just enough to win power, they would have 133 women, which is 41%

:34:43.:34:49.

The Conservatives currently have 305 MPs and their strategy

:34:50.:34:50.

at the next election is to concentrate on their 40 most

:34:51.:34:53.

marginal seats, and the 40 seats most mathematically likely to turn

:34:54.:34:56.

In those 40, 29 candidates have been selected

:34:57.:34:59.

If they kept hold of their existing seats and won those 29 new ones,

:35:00.:35:05.

they would have 56 women MPs, around 17%, and up 2% from last time.

:35:06.:35:08.

The Liberal Democrats are fighting to hold on to the 57 seats they won

:35:09.:35:31.

One Conservative peer who thinks the party needs to look at all options

:35:32.:35:37.

in its female -- if its female numbers go down says element is

:35:38.:35:43.

simply missing trick. If 50% of our population is not being looked at,

:35:44.:35:49.

even, are we really using the best of our talent? Yes, women's life

:35:50.:35:56.

experiences are different, they are not superior, or inferior. They are

:35:57.:36:00.

different. But surely, those experiences need to be represented

:36:01.:36:05.

here at Westminster. That is the Parliamentary projection for

:36:06.:36:08.

gender, what about ethnicity? According to the last census in

:36:09.:36:14.

2011, 13% of people in the UK describe themselves as non-white.

:36:15.:36:19.

Labour currently has 16 MPs from black, Asian or minority

:36:20.:36:23.

backgrounds, with just over 6%. If they get the extra 60 seats, that

:36:24.:36:28.

figure goes up to 26, it was sent off their party. The Tories

:36:29.:36:31.

currently have 11 black ethic minority candidates, or 4% of the

:36:32.:36:37.

party. The biggest and next 29 seats, it would mean 14 black and

:36:38.:36:41.

ethnic minority MPs, again putting them on for percent. The Lib Dems do

:36:42.:36:47.

not have any black or ethic minority MPs, if they managed to cling on to

:36:48.:36:50.

the current number of seats they would have two, giving them a

:36:51.:36:56.

proportion of 4%. If they lost the 20 most vulnerable seats, it would

:36:57.:37:02.

go back down to zero. But even if you change the mix of gender and

:37:03.:37:06.

ethnicity in Parliament, would it solve the problem? Probably not.

:37:07.:37:10.

Only 10% of us have gone to a private, fee-paying school. 33% of

:37:11.:37:16.

new MPs in 2010 dead. A quarter of all MPs went to Oxford or

:37:17.:37:20.

Cambridge. Only a fifth of us went to any university. There is a huge

:37:21.:37:26.

disillusion in this place which has summoning people -- so many people

:37:27.:37:32.

who do not look like us. They cannot communicate in a way that we can

:37:33.:37:37.

relate to. If you look at turnout, at the moment, if you are an

:37:38.:37:41.

unskilled worker, you are 20 times less likely to turn out and vote.

:37:42.:37:45.

That is getting worse and worse at every election. That is the key,

:37:46.:37:49.

evidence does suggest that if a party reflects the society it exists

:37:50.:37:54.

within, it is more likely to get the votes they also badly need. -- they

:37:55.:38:00.

all so badly need. It is just about time for Sunday

:38:01.:38:07.

Good morning and welcome to Sunday Politics Scotland.

:38:08.:38:13.

An official investigation into a head-on collision of

:38:14.:38:17.

two RAF Tornados over the Moray Firth in 2012 concludes that

:38:18.:38:22.

an on-board collision warning system would have saved lives.

:38:23.:38:28.

A sledgehammer to crack a nut - that's how one critic describes

:38:29.:38:31.

the Government's policy to give each youngster a named person

:38:32.:38:33.

We have a look at the history of the TV political debate.

:38:34.:38:49.

Air accident investigators have concluded that if

:38:50.:38:52.

an on-board collision warning system had been fitted to the RAF's fleet

:38:53.:38:55.

of Tornados, it would have saved lives when two of the jets crashed

:38:56.:38:59.

The BBC understands the finding is contained in

:39:00.:39:04.

a highly critical and long awaited report into the accident, due to be

:39:05.:39:08.

published tomorrow by the Military Aviation Authority ahead of the

:39:09.:39:11.

Our Westminster correspondent Tim Reid has this exclusive report.

:39:12.:39:23.

Being brought ashore, the wreckage of a collision between two Tornado

:39:24.:39:30.

jets over the Moray Firth in July 2012. The accident happened in misty

:39:31.:39:34.

conditions but investigators believe fatalities would have been avoided

:39:35.:39:38.

if the collision warning system, for years delayed or cancelled by the

:39:39.:39:44.

MOD, had been fitted. The aircrew died in the accident and the fourth

:39:45.:39:50.

was seriously injured. A long-awaited report by the Military

:39:51.:39:53.

Aviation Authority makes 50 recommendations, it says a new

:39:54.:39:55.

on-board one in system which was only approved months after the crash

:39:56.:40:00.

must be operational as soon as possible. Campaigners say they will

:40:01.:40:03.

step up their calls for a fatal accident enquiries to get to the

:40:04.:40:06.

full truth. The report is particularly critical of the

:40:07.:40:10.

procurement processes within the MOD, it talks of smoke and mirrors

:40:11.:40:15.

over costs of delaying and cancelling the system, which is only

:40:16.:40:18.

due to become operational in the Tornado fleet by the end of the

:40:19.:40:22.

year, but which is still not fitted the Typhoon aircraft, which are also

:40:23.:40:23.

based at RAF Lossiemouth. I'm joined now by the SNP defence

:40:24.:40:27.

spokesman, Angus Robertson, the House of Commons Defence Select

:40:28.:40:29.

Committee, and joins us from London. And as Robertson, this report is

:40:30.:40:41.

expected to say that lives could have been saved, had a collision

:40:42.:40:47.

warning system been installed. What is your reaction to that? Well, I

:40:48.:40:54.

think that has long been the view of experts, people who understand their

:40:55.:40:59.

worthiness, but for it to be confirmed this report, and we are

:41:00.:41:05.

still waiting for the final text, it would be a damning indictment on the

:41:06.:41:08.

approach that the Ministry of Defence takes to the safety of

:41:09.:41:13.

service personnel. It raises very serious questions about the

:41:14.:41:17.

decision-making process, which recommended the installation of a

:41:18.:41:20.

collision warning system in Tornado aircraft in the 1990s, yet they are

:41:21.:41:26.

still not installed. It also raises questions about why no

:41:27.:41:30.

recommendations have yet been made for the installation of a collision

:41:31.:41:34.

warning system on board Typhoon aircraft, which are operating at

:41:35.:41:40.

present in Scotland. This is not new, we lost far too many people in

:41:41.:41:46.

that accident and serious issues were raised about MOD airworthiness

:41:47.:41:52.

management then. This is not a new story, and it really does make a

:41:53.:41:57.

case or a fatal accident enquiry, so the MOD and people who make

:41:58.:42:02.

decisions within the MOD, like Liam Fox, have to answer for the delays

:42:03.:42:07.

in installation of collision warning system is, indeed for its

:42:08.:42:10.

cancellation at one stage. Our service personnel's lives, their

:42:11.:42:14.

safety, must come first, always. It does seem extraordinary that the

:42:15.:42:20.

installation of a collision one exist on Tornados was recommended 14

:42:21.:42:25.

years before this accident happened. Yet, based on her not been

:42:26.:42:32.

installed. That is right, they should have been installed. And it

:42:33.:42:35.

should have happened a long time ago. The big problem is, people have

:42:36.:42:43.

to make decisions on what they can afford. I would love to see far more

:42:44.:42:49.

money spent on defence. Too much of our defence policy is done sort of

:42:50.:42:54.

on the cheap. I would very much like to have seen a collision warning

:42:55.:42:59.

system put on the Tornado and indeed on the Typhoon. We have not had the

:43:00.:43:02.

result of this report yet, so I assume that what you see may be the

:43:03.:43:07.

truth, but I have not read it. But if it is someone who points the

:43:08.:43:12.

finger and says, if we had a collision warning system on this

:43:13.:43:16.

aircraft, this might not have happened, I totally endorse that. We

:43:17.:43:21.

require a collision avoidance system on all our aircraft. But Tornados is

:43:22.:43:28.

one thing, it seems one thing -- it seems extraordinary that the Typhoon

:43:29.:43:35.

aircraft, the next generation aircraft, they are not even

:43:36.:43:42.

installed on that. They are not just desirable on civilian aircraft, they

:43:43.:43:46.

are Monday on civil in aircraft that carry more than 20 passengers, yet

:43:47.:43:49.

we have these multi-million pound fighter aircraft that have not

:43:50.:43:57.

bothered to put them on. I agree. All I am saying is, frankly, we are

:43:58.:44:03.

in a martial profession in the Royal Belfast, and sometimes risks are

:44:04.:44:08.

taken. The people in the RAF do what they can with the equipment they

:44:09.:44:13.

have. It is a political decision, as do resources. And I agree with

:44:14.:44:18.

Angus, perhaps we should have put these collision warning systems on

:44:19.:44:22.

our craft a long time ago. But then my question is, what do we not put

:44:23.:44:26.

on the aeroplanes? Someone in the RAF who understands it much better

:44:27.:44:30.

than us next the decision on priorities. I do not know what the

:44:31.:44:37.

priorities were. Angus Robertson, I presume there is an economic case

:44:38.:44:40.

for these things, because there is the tragic loss of life in the 2012

:44:41.:44:44.

incident, but without sounding callous, these particular

:44:45.:44:52.

Eurofighter is, these cost millions of pounds each, it would surely be

:44:53.:44:55.

cheaper to put something in them that would stop losing that

:44:56.:45:01.

multi-million pound investment. I think it needs context, we must

:45:02.:45:04.

understand that there are families, friends and colleagues who are

:45:05.:45:08.

watching programmes like this, they have not seen the report but what

:45:09.:45:11.

they are about to be able to read is a detailed account of how their

:45:12.:45:15.

loved ones died. It is going to be extremely distressing for them. And

:45:16.:45:19.

everybody was my first thoughts need to be in that context. The point you

:45:20.:45:24.

raised about the value, the cost, both of equipment for the Tornado or

:45:25.:45:30.

the Typhoon, and the crew who have gone through years of training and

:45:31.:45:35.

have experience, that has cost a lot as well. All of this does beg the

:45:36.:45:39.

question, why is it that we would send some of our most highly trained

:45:40.:45:43.

service men and women, using some of the most expensive equipment that

:45:44.:45:49.

the RAF has at its disposal, regularly into exercises and

:45:50.:45:55.

low-flying, into operations, without a collision warning system, when we

:45:56.:45:58.

know it has been recommended for such a long time? Bob raises a

:45:59.:46:02.

question about the decisions that are made, and he is right, it would

:46:03.:46:07.

be very difficult decisions. I completely agree. But when it comes

:46:08.:46:11.

down to people's lives and people's lives being put at risk, or when we

:46:12.:46:15.

know that air proximity examples, when planes come close enough to

:46:16.:46:24.

collide, they happen on a very regular, they occur very regularly

:46:25.:46:27.

in Scottish airspace and the rest of the UK, when we know there are

:46:28.:46:30.

issues about the amount of engineering personnel who maintain

:46:31.:46:34.

the highest safety standards, given we know all this, and we also know

:46:35.:46:39.

that the recommendation to install a collision warning system was

:46:40.:46:43.

followed by decisions that slowed that down and at one stage stopped

:46:44.:46:48.

it, that was on Liam Fox's watch, all of this makes the case

:46:49.:46:55.

overwhelmingly for a fatal accident enquiry so the conclusions of this

:46:56.:47:00.

military and the -- military of poverty report are to conduct --

:47:01.:47:06.

Military Aviation Authority report are taken in detail. I should point

:47:07.:47:13.

out, we did ask Liam Fox to appear on the programme today, but he was

:47:14.:47:18.

unavailable. Angus Robertson,, you talked about the need for a fatal

:47:19.:47:22.

accident enquiry, think one of the organ as you will face, possibly

:47:23.:47:28.

tomorrow, is that -- one of the arguments you will face, if this is

:47:29.:47:33.

as critical as we are led to believe of procurement policy in the Royal

:47:34.:47:38.

Air Force, people will say, there is no need for a fatal accident

:47:39.:47:42.

enquiry, we have already got it, in effect. If that were the case, there

:47:43.:47:49.

would have been no need for justice -- for the judge to conduct a

:47:50.:47:54.

coroner's inquest into the loss of the Nimrod aircraft. There are many

:47:55.:47:58.

other examples that we know of. The loss in the Mull of Kintyre of the

:47:59.:48:05.

helicopter, which was followed by a fatal accident enquiry. We need to

:48:06.:48:09.

get to the bottom of this, people's lives were lost, millions of pounds

:48:10.:48:15.

worth of equivalent was lost and the decision-making systems in the MOD,

:48:16.:48:20.

it appears, have broken down. We need to understand this so it never

:48:21.:48:24.

happens again. We cannot ask our service personnel to put the lights

:48:25.:48:29.

on the line then lose it, because basic safety equipment was not

:48:30.:48:34.

installed in aircraft. Bob Stuart, would you agree that there needs to

:48:35.:48:38.

be a fatal accident enquiry following the publication of the

:48:39.:48:42.

report? I do not know, to be honest. I have not seen the report or the

:48:43.:48:46.

recommendations. But I do know one thing, the Royal Air Force and the

:48:47.:48:53.

Ministry of Defence will be taking note of what it says. The idea that

:48:54.:48:59.

we would not try and put urgently collision avoiding systems on all

:49:00.:49:03.

our fast jets seems to me strange will stop if it is not immediately

:49:04.:49:08.

done. But the problem is, we have got to make decisions on priorities.

:49:09.:49:13.

Can I point out that these very gallant young men, all of them, were

:49:14.:49:19.

doing their very best to fly as well as they could, to man their

:49:20.:49:23.

equipment as well as they could, but the equipment they had, they had to

:49:24.:49:30.

fly. They do not have a choice. No blame on them whatsoever. We all

:49:31.:49:33.

feel, as Angus and myself and everyone watching this programme

:49:34.:49:39.

does, how tragic the result was. But everyone, like myself and everyone

:49:40.:49:45.

in Parliament, really wants us to fly as safely as we can, but these

:49:46.:49:51.

aeroplanes and these aircrew are there to defend our country and

:49:52.:49:55.

sometimes they have to take risks in training, which is what they were

:49:56.:49:57.

doing. How A key support for families or big

:49:58.:50:08.

brother gone too far? That's the debate surrounding the Scottish

:50:09.:50:11.

Government's named person policy. Brought in under the Children and

:50:12.:50:15.

Young People Bill earlier this year, the policy gives every Scot under 18

:50:16.:50:18.

a designated person responsible for their well being. That person isn't

:50:19.:50:23.

a parent or relative but someone from the public sector. Some

:50:24.:50:26.

charities have welcomed the move as a step towards greater child

:50:27.:50:29.

protection, others feel parents' human rights are being infringed.

:50:30.:50:34.

Next month opponents will see a judicial review of the measure.

:50:35.:50:38.

Megan Paterson has been exploring the debate. The visit from the

:50:39.:50:49.

health visitor finds this baby happy, healthy and progressing well.

:50:50.:50:55.

But his health visitor serves another purpose, she is his named

:50:56.:51:01.

person, assigned by the government to monitor his well-being. Every

:51:02.:51:07.

family is different, every family dynamic is different as well. It is

:51:08.:51:12.

really a matter of making relationships and building on that.

:51:13.:51:17.

There is trust each way between the families and hoping you are giving

:51:18.:51:24.

them the help they are looking for in their child's's development up to

:51:25.:51:33.

the age of five. It has made a great difference. In the hospital he was

:51:34.:51:38.

taken to special care, we were in longer and when we came home it was

:51:39.:51:44.

good to have somebody. I was nervous because he had been encamped,

:51:45.:51:49.

special Kier that I was doing everything right. The decision was

:51:50.:52:01.

taken to roll out this system across the whole country. The Christian

:52:02.:52:06.

Institute have mounted a judicial review funded by members of the

:52:07.:52:13.

public. It gives huge powers to named persons to advise and talk to

:52:14.:52:17.

children without the parents even knowing about it or without their

:52:18.:52:25.

consent. The same state bodies will be involved in looking for all these

:52:26.:52:31.

families where there is no issue at all. Instead of actually finding

:52:32.:52:37.

that needle in the haystack actually making the haystack much bigger.

:52:38.:52:43.

That will find it much more difficult to get to that vulnerable

:52:44.:52:49.

child. They still have to respect family rights. Health visitors or

:52:50.:52:52.

teachers will usually take on the role of named person, people the

:52:53.:53:00.

families already know but some people feel it will be to the

:53:01.:53:08.

conflict of interests especially when children get ill. We saw our

:53:09.:53:15.

son's health decline quite rapidly and he was being forced to attend to

:53:16.:53:21.

school, we took the health professionals at their word that

:53:22.:53:26.

this was the thing to do, to keep him any routine, get him up and not

:53:27.:53:32.

let him rest. When we saw his health deteriorate rapidly we stepped in.

:53:33.:53:37.

The named person makes that extremely difficult for parents to

:53:38.:53:41.

do now because you have an extra layer of bureaucracy that makes it

:53:42.:53:45.

difficult for the parents to have the final word on the ear of their

:53:46.:53:57.

children. -- care of their children. At the moment people already have

:53:58.:54:03.

information where there are concerns about a child. This is about

:54:04.:54:08.

coordinating it and making sure the best use is made of the information

:54:09.:54:15.

for the care of the child. Most people will not need to use the

:54:16.:54:20.

named person in the way we go to the doctor. We do not use the doctor

:54:21.:54:26.

every day or every week but we go when we need them. We do not know

:54:27.:54:32.

when children or families may become vulnerable and need extra help but

:54:33.:54:36.

it is important that when this happens the children have a named

:54:37.:54:40.

person to go to to get the extra help or advice they need. With the

:54:41.:54:46.

campaign against named person stepping up over the summer the

:54:47.:54:51.

roll-out seems far from trouble-free. I am joined by the

:54:52.:54:59.

Minister for young people and the Conservative Gavin Brown. Proponents

:55:00.:55:10.

of this legislation are seeking a judicial view. -- review. They have

:55:11.:55:18.

asked you not to finalise the bill until a decision is made on the

:55:19.:55:23.

legal probe cess, are you prepared to do that? We are very clear we

:55:24.:55:31.

want to give children the best start in life. We are confident this goes

:55:32.:55:38.

through all the requirements to go through Parliament, it has already

:55:39.:55:42.

had royal assent as well. We see no reason to delay unless any good

:55:43.:55:49.

reason comes forward which we do not believe their Es. So you will go

:55:50.:55:59.

ahead? Implementation is in 2016. It has received support through the

:56:00.:56:03.

consultation and we are absolutely clear this complies with all the

:56:04.:56:06.

legal requirements that legislation needs. The argument for having a

:56:07.:56:14.

named person for every child, it is the every that seems to be the bone

:56:15.:56:19.

of contention, is that you never know which child will need help,

:56:20.:56:28.

that has some force, does it not? If you have universal provision for

:56:29.:56:32.

every person in Scotland between the age of zero and 18 it means you are

:56:33.:56:37.

expending resources on people who do not want it and do not need it. The

:56:38.:56:43.

money cannot be spent twice. The money that could be targeted on our

:56:44.:56:47.

most vulnerable is being spent on people who do not want it so I think

:56:48.:56:53.

it has the danger of being very inefficient. It is bending money on

:56:54.:56:58.

an enormous bureaucracy that does not help every single child. --

:56:59.:57:07.

spending money. I do not agree. It is about getting help for a family

:57:08.:57:16.

or child as early as possible. A named person could have access to

:57:17.:57:21.

the medical records of a child, isn't that correct? This does not

:57:22.:57:31.

interfere with parents rights at all. Couldn't they have that access

:57:32.:57:35.

without the rights of the parents being considered? It is help for

:57:36.:57:41.

families with everyone being brought on board. If the named person is not

:57:42.:57:48.

satisfied with the response of the parent they could have access to the

:57:49.:57:52.

medical records of the child without the parent's consent, is that

:57:53.:57:59.

correct? We are sharing information in a proportionate way that makes

:58:00.:58:05.

sure we have the best interests of children at the very heart of

:58:06.:58:10.

decision-making. Be honest and is to the question I have just asked is

:58:11.:58:15.

yes, in certain circumstances the named person could have access to

:58:16.:58:20.

information like that. Where the person feels that the children's

:58:21.:58:33.

safety is at risk they may have access but they live their robust

:58:34.:58:36.

framework to make sure this sharing of information is done in a robust

:58:37.:58:42.

and appropriate way. It could be access to private information about

:58:43.:58:45.

a child without the consent of the parent of that child. It provides a

:58:46.:58:53.

consistent framework. Do you think there is a question of parental

:58:54.:58:59.

rights here? Of course there is. These are the fundamental

:59:00.:59:03.

practicality issue. You are disrupting the autonomy of the

:59:04.:59:08.

family, moving the balance towards the state and away from parents. In

:59:09.:59:13.

many circumstances parents know best, the state does not know best,

:59:14.:59:20.

it does not have an unblemished record in this area. Responses came

:59:21.:59:23.

back from many organisations that their was very little consultation

:59:24.:59:37.

with parents. That is not true. There are a huge number of people

:59:38.:59:43.

and organisations already responsible for children in

:59:44.:59:48.

Scotland. What precisely is added by having a named person for every

:59:49.:59:54.

Child? It is about embedding good practice. If you are correct that it

:59:55.:00:00.

is not the gross infringement of the rights of parents, what does it do?

:00:01.:00:08.

The leader of the Conservative group in the Borders said this does not

:00:09.:00:15.

interfere with parental rights. If you have the teacher who is a named

:00:16.:00:22.

person, that teacher could have access to private medical records of

:00:23.:00:28.

the Child. The parent of that child is concerned and if that teacher at

:00:29.:00:36.

the child another named person could have access to private information

:00:37.:00:43.

on their child in an infinite gene, isn't there something slightly east

:00:44.:00:50.

German about this? Though, because it is about embedding good

:00:51.:00:55.

practice. This reduces bureaucracy, allows professionals to intervene

:00:56.:01:00.

where families most that need require additional support. It saves

:01:01.:01:05.

money. It is about wider reform to make sure we get help to families

:01:06.:01:09.

who need it and require it, with children who require it in a timely

:01:10.:01:14.

way because the cost to the public purse of not doing these things is

:01:15.:01:20.

if problems escalate into crises. That is something we want to avoid.

:01:21.:01:26.

This supports parents. In response to what parents have to what parents

:01:27.:01:29.

have told as they want through this parenting strategy. It has been very

:01:30.:01:33.

much done in consultation with parents. Thank you very much indeed.

:01:34.:01:39.

In a moment we will be looking at the history of TV political debate

:01:40.:01:50.

but first, the news. Good afternoon. Air accident investigators have

:01:51.:01:53.

concluded that if an onboard collision warning system had been

:01:54.:01:56.

fitted to the RAF's fleet of Tornados, it could have saved lives.

:01:57.:01:59.

Three airmen died when two jets crashed off the Caithness coast in

:02:00.:02:02.

July 2012. The Military Aviation Authority is due to publish a long

:02:03.:02:06.

awaited report into the accident tomorrow. The BBC understands the

:02:07.:02:10.

report is highly critical of the Ministry of Defence, which for years

:02:11.:02:13.

repeatedly delayed and cancelled the fitting of a collision warning

:02:14.:02:22.

system to the aircraft. The Treasury has claimed that Scottish Government

:02:23.:02:25.

plans to increase borrowing under independence would be incompatible

:02:26.:02:36.

with retaining the pound. The First Minister said initial borrowing

:02:37.:02:39.

would boost the economy and allow a sustainable cut in the deficit. He

:02:40.:02:45.

added that Scotland would start out being more prosperous per head than

:02:46.:02:50.

the UK, France or Japan. Danny Alexander said that boosting

:02:51.:02:52.

borrowing to fund higher spending would set Scotland on a different

:02:53.:03:03.

path from the rest of the UK. You cannot both have massive extra

:03:04.:03:09.

borrowing and ensure that currency union will take place. We have to

:03:10.:03:15.

accept that they will not be a currency union. They are not being

:03:16.:03:21.

transparent and open with the people of Scotland about their alternative

:03:22.:03:26.

plan. And, it's the second day of the Bannockburn Live festival,

:03:27.:03:28.

marking the 700th anniversary of the famous battle. Hundreds of actors

:03:29.:03:31.

are recreating the 1314 military encounter in which Robert the Bruce

:03:32.:03:34.

defeated the forces of Edward the Second. Musicians and comedians are

:03:35.:03:37.

performing over two days with more than 40 clans gathering for the

:03:38.:03:40.

occasion. Despite initial concern over slow ticket sales, organisers

:03:41.:03:48.

said yesterday's event sold out. The weather forecast now with

:03:49.:03:58.

Christopher. Generally a better day today compared with yesterday. Some

:03:59.:04:02.

sunshine developing but also the risk of one or two showers, and

:04:03.:04:06.

regularly down the south of the country. Feeling cooler where clouds

:04:07.:04:15.

are thicker. This evening and overnight the showers will tend to

:04:16.:04:18.

feed. And when exactly do you do it,

:04:19.:04:25.

if you decide to do it? TV debates are a big worry

:04:26.:04:30.

for politicians and the scrutiny is even more intense and instantaneous

:04:31.:04:33.

in the age of social media. Just when your campaign is going

:04:34.:04:37.

well, one clanger can give Timing is crucial too - when do

:04:38.:04:42.

you decide to meet for battle, and Andrew Kerr takes a look back

:04:43.:04:48.

at debates of the past. And this was a common 1960, when

:04:49.:05:10.

campaigning changed for ever. More than 60 million Americans tuned

:05:11.:05:13.

in to watch the first ever televised debate between the two tank --

:05:14.:05:19.

candidates running for presidency. I know what it means to be caught, I

:05:20.:05:23.

know what it means to see people who are unemployed. This party has

:05:24.:05:31.

produced Harry Truman, which supports and sustains these

:05:32.:05:35.

programmes I discussed tonight. Tanned and relaxed, JFK looked

:05:36.:05:40.

confident, compared to the shifty looking Nixon. TV viewers thought

:05:41.:05:44.

Kennedy had one, the radio listeners thought it was a close call in the

:05:45.:05:50.

race for the White House. In the last presidential election, there

:05:51.:05:54.

were three debates of varying formats. We welcome President Obama

:05:55.:06:02.

and Governor Romney. President Obama lost the first one, it was probably

:06:03.:06:09.

a draw in the second, and he won the final. These were key staging posts

:06:10.:06:12.

in the campaign. Popular with voters, even more popular with the

:06:13.:06:15.

media. These debates are embedded in popular culture. The renowned

:06:16.:06:26.

presidential series the West When she was the effort that goes into

:06:27.:06:34.

reparation. Why did you nominate him? Bite me, that's why. So, these

:06:35.:06:43.

debates are part and parcel of political life in the US. And even

:06:44.:06:53.

Scottish campaigns. In 2011, the main party leaders gathered in Perth

:06:54.:06:58.

ahead of the Holyrood election. Voters had their say and the rough

:06:59.:07:03.

idea was given when a possible referendum could be held. Tonight,

:07:04.:07:08.

who do you want to be your next Prime Minister? It was not until

:07:09.:07:18.

2010 that the UK party leaders could show off their wares in this type of

:07:19.:07:24.

forum. All tracked by the so-called war as voters expressed their views.

:07:25.:07:29.

These dates can so often provide an unexpected boost to those struggling

:07:30.:07:33.

to make a challenge. -- so-called war. -- worm. A word to the wise, it

:07:34.:07:48.

was not the debate, but there was an audience. And DV cameras were

:07:49.:07:56.

running. All right! We're all right! After that performance, act

:07:57.:08:05.

normally, don't be overconfident, and do wear a decent tie.

:08:06.:08:12.

Now it's time to have a look at what's happening in the week ahead.

:08:13.:08:16.

the Political editor of the Herald, Magnus Gardham,

:08:17.:08:19.

and Stephen McGinty from the Scotsman.

:08:20.:08:24.

Let's start with this story about Danny Alexander having written a

:08:25.:08:35.

letter, very stern one, but plans the Scottish Government have for

:08:36.:08:38.

increasing spending, should they get a Yes vote in a referendum and

:08:39.:08:43.

saying, hang on, that is not the same as the austerity programme,

:08:44.:08:48.

therefore not only can you not have a currency union, but it sure was

:08:49.:08:52.

you that you don't really believe you're going to get one. It is

:08:53.:08:56.

interesting that Danny Alexander has picked up on this. The SNP set out

:08:57.:09:05.

their borrowing plans, it is the case that they would burrow billions

:09:06.:09:09.

of pounds between 2016 and 2019, would amount to 2.4 billion alone,

:09:10.:09:15.

in order to boost the economy and move away from austerity. Danny

:09:16.:09:19.

Alexander has said, that is exactly the kind of policy divergence which

:09:20.:09:25.

took -- which would put some pressure on a currency union that it

:09:26.:09:28.

would be unsustainable. You might ask, why has he written a letter,

:09:29.:09:34.

given he has already ruled it out? But I think it is a sign that a

:09:35.:09:38.

currency union is not going to go away, the issue is not going to go

:09:39.:09:42.

away throughout this referendum campaign. Magnus is saying why did

:09:43.:09:48.

he write the letter? I suspect the politics of this is the dimension

:09:49.:09:53.

that he was to say, hang on, it only is this incompatible with a currency

:09:54.:09:56.

union, but in my view as Danny Alexander, you realise that, or you

:09:57.:10:01.

would not be saying this. He is effectively trying to make the point

:10:02.:10:05.

that the currency union has not been agreed, it is a major problem for

:10:06.:10:12.

the SNP, though -- that is the way it is being viewed by many people

:10:13.:10:15.

and he is time to drive that point home. Scottish Government would say

:10:16.:10:19.

that a better economic strategy than anything you whatever, with. The

:10:20.:10:25.

Treasury are constantly saying this is our predicted spending, this is

:10:26.:10:29.

what we're going to do, and then the future happens and you revise it. It

:10:30.:10:34.

will be interesting to see in the future whether this will invariably

:10:35.:10:39.

change. And whether it is on a par with what the SNP want to do anyway.

:10:40.:10:44.

A quick comment on the Tornados story. It does seem, it surprised me

:10:45.:10:50.

on a looked into this, that even the most advanced next generation

:10:51.:10:56.

aircraft in the RAF, as of now, do not have these collision warning

:10:57.:11:00.

system is installed. It is a very alarming finding. Clearly we will

:11:01.:11:06.

have to wait until tomorrow to hear more from the MOD to see what they

:11:07.:11:10.

are saying in response to that. In the meantime, I think it is hard to

:11:11.:11:15.

say a lot more than it is good that the report has finally been

:11:16.:11:17.

published, it is good for the families, obviously, and I think

:11:18.:11:22.

taking up from what we heard Angus Robertson saying, I can see pressure

:11:23.:11:26.

for a fatal accident enquiry beginning to grow. I think it is

:11:27.:11:33.

tragic that it happened and it must be very galling for the families.

:11:34.:11:37.

The fact that a collision warning system was suggested in the 1990s

:11:38.:11:43.

and nothing happens, the loved ones are now dead, it could have been

:11:44.:11:48.

avoided. I think it is tragic for them, and it is crucial that the MOD

:11:49.:11:55.

continue the roll-out of the system. The Armed Forces are featured in a

:11:56.:11:59.

very different way on the front pages of the papers. This is

:12:00.:12:05.

allegations that David Cameron was politicising Armed Forces Day by his

:12:06.:12:11.

speech and so allegations that leaflets are being circulate it by

:12:12.:12:15.

the MOD through the services which take a position on the referendum.

:12:16.:12:22.

It is interesting. He clearly said he was not going to politicise the

:12:23.:12:27.

day, it should be a neutral day, but politics will invariably come into

:12:28.:12:35.

this. This could be one of the last ones, and he used the opportunity to

:12:36.:12:41.

make a point. I think there was criticism of it, I was at the event

:12:42.:12:44.

yesterday and this book is an ex-soldiers afterwards and one of

:12:45.:12:48.

them wait -- made the point that this was the one day people come

:12:49.:12:51.

together and celebrate the Armed Forces and it was wrong for the

:12:52.:12:56.

Prime Minister to play politics with that day. What did you make of it? I

:12:57.:13:02.

am in two minds. Given the weight of symbolism around Armed Forces Day,

:13:03.:13:06.

out of me thinks it would be rather odd if the Prime Minister had not

:13:07.:13:09.

made a passing reference to the referendum. Another part of me

:13:10.:13:14.

thinks, given the weight of symbolism around Armed Forces Day,

:13:15.:13:18.

was it really necessary? What it does show is the heightened

:13:19.:13:22.

sensitivity around the referendum issue, and woke the type any

:13:23.:13:27.

politician who is contemplating politicising the Commonwealth Games.

:13:28.:13:31.

This thing about the leaflets, there are allegations from both sides that

:13:32.:13:34.

the Government is being used inappropriately. If Government is

:13:35.:13:40.

being used in a properly, both of them, we are seeing huge spending on

:13:41.:13:46.

the White Paper, huge spending on the Scotland Office leaflets. We

:13:47.:13:50.

will have to leave it there. That's all we have time for, I will be back

:13:51.:13:54.

at the same time next week. Until then, goodbye.

:13:55.:13:58.

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