06/07/2014 Sunday Politics Scotland


06/07/2014

Andrew Neil and Gordon Brewer with the latest political news, interviews and debate. Guests include Nick Clegg, Alistair Darling, Frances O'Grady and Matthew Hancock.


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Good morning and welcome to the Sunday Politics. Up to 1 million

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public sector workers will strike this week. It is one of the biggest

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walk-out since 2010, the country's top trade union and the Business

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Minister go head-to-head. The Tour de France seems to have cheered him

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up. Just as well. Nick Clegg has nothing more to smile about. He

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joins me live from Sheffield to discuss the Lib Dem plight.

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Just over ten weeks until Scotland determines its future, the man

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leading the campaign against independence, Alistair Darling,

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joins me from Edinburgh. Coming up on Sunday Politics

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Scotland, an independent report commissioned by the Scottish

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Government recommends cutting taxes and overhauling regulation in the

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North Sea. journalists always ahead

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of the peleton - Nick Watt, They'll be tweeting faster than Tour

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de France cyclists can pedal. The news is dominated this morning

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by stories swirling around allegations of an historic

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Westminster paedophile ring. Concern has grown because

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of the disappearance of a dossier handed over to the Home Office in

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1983, along with over 100 official files related to it and possibly

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containing details of historic child Labour is calling for a public

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inquiry led by a child protection But speaking earlier on

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The Andrew Marr Show this morning the Education Secretary Michael Gove

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ruled that out. The most important thing that we

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need to do is ensure that the due process of law pursues those who may

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be guilty of individual crimes and we also learn lessons about what may

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or may not have gone wrong in the past, but it is also important to

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emphasise that many of the allegations that are being made are

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historic. And what we do now in order to keep children safer is

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better and stronger than was the case when 20 or 30 years ago.

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Without getting into a boring tit-for-tat, public inquiry, "yes"

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or "no"? No. Helen, can the Government go on resisting calls for

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a full-scale inquiry? It is very hard. There are cynical and

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non-cynical reasons for calling for an inquiry. The cynical one allows

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you to say I can't comment on this. The non-cynical is it manages to get

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people to air allegations in a way that is safe. What we saw at the

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Leveson Inquiry was helpful, people who felt they had been shut out from

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justice getting a chance to tell their side of the story. A public

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inquiry in this case is a good idea. Labour have called for a lot of

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public inquiries. A list was made in 2012 of how many they called for.

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Not only Savile, but the West Coast Main Line and breast implants. On

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this particular issue, the people don't trust the politicians, they

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don't trust the police either because they may have been complicit

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in a cover-up. They may not trust the Home Office who we are told some

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of their officials were mentioned in the dossier? That is what David

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Cameron is hanging on to. This is a matter now because they are alleged

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criminal activity, it is for the police to investigate. In that big

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piece in the Sunday Times, Tim Shipman reports one of the people

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making the allegations lives in the United States

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making the allegations lives in the been out to the United States to

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interview him. The Prime Minister would say that is how serious the

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police are taking it. The problem for the Prime Minister - he

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police are taking it. The problem allergic to big public inquiry. His

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finest moment was his response to the Bloody Sunday inquiry shortly

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inrequest -- that inquiry took 12 years to report. The problem is the

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dossier has gone missing, the files have gone missing, more allegations

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keep coming out either directly or indirectly. It doesn't look like it

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is going to go away? The fact the dossiers are missing means it is

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inappropriate for the Home Office to be investigating this. There is

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inappropriate for the Home Office to a police investigation. If after

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that, there are questions unanswered which can only be answered by

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that, there are questions unanswered public inquiry, or which require

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resources that can only be commanded by a public inquiry, I could see the

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case for going down that road. I fear that sometimes in this country

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we invest almost supernatural powers in what a public inquiry can do. I

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wonder whether there is another example of a country that goes

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through this stale ritual every few years of a scandal emerging, the

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opposition calling for an inquiry, the Government saying no and then

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holding the line or giving in. I don't know what we think this

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inquiries can do. It comes back to your point, Helen, you should be

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careful what you call an inquiry on so it doesn't devalue the concept.

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On Thursday up to a million public sector workers - including teachers,

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firemen and council workers - will go on strike.

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Their unions have differing gripes but the fact they're all striking

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on the same day is designed to send a strong message to the government.

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As the economy picks up again they're demanding an end

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Growth has returned strongly to the UK economy

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and unemployment is at its lowest level for more than five years.

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So why is there still talk of austerity

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The deficit is coming down but much more slowly than the government

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And accumulated deficits - the national debt -

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The UK is now in hock to the tune of ?1.3 trillion - and rising.

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In fact, we're only 40% of the way through George Osborne's planned

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austerity, with the chancellor now saying he won't manage to balance

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Unions are now rebelling against tight pay controls.

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Since 2010, average public sector pay, which goes to about 1 in 5

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Over the same period, prices increased by 16% -

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meaning the average public sector worker saw their pay squeezed

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Going head-to-head on the public sector strikes and austerity -

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the general secretary of the TUC Frances O'Grady, and Conservative

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We have seen it, public sector pay squeezed by 9% under the Coalition

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Government. Isn't it time to take your foot off the brake a bit? I

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don't think it is the right time to let go of the public finances at

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all. We were always clear that this is what's called a structural

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deficit, it doesn't go away just because the growth is returning and

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the economy is coming back. We have protected and are protecting the

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lowest paid public sector workers who weren't part of the pay freeze

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and now pay going up by 1%. These are difficult decisions. We have had

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that discussion many times. They are necessary in order to keep that plan

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on track and as we can see in the wider economy, it is working.

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People's living standards will have to continue to fall if you are in

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the public sector? We need to keep public spending under control and

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pay restraint is one of the main ways of being able... The answer is

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yes? The answer is this is necessary. The answer is yes, this

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is necessary. It isn't because we want to. We have to. This strike

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isn't going to change the Government's mind, is it? It does

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seem like the Government isn't listening. We have had years... They

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are listening, they just don't agree. Ordinary people, including

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those in the public sector, are finding it really tough. What really

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sticks in the throat is the idea that money can be found to give tax

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cuts to billionaires, to millionaires and to big

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corporations. But it can't be found to help 500,000 workers in local

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government, dinner ladies, school meal workers, lollipop men and women

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who are earning less than the living wage. What do you say to that? We

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have protected those who are the least well-paid in the public

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sector. But this is about a long-term... How can you? Hold on.

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You have said you have protected them. This involves ordinary people,

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many watching this programme, they have had a 1% pay rise in some cases

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since 2010. The average gas bill is up 57%, electric bill up 22%, food

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costs up 16%, running a car 11%, in what way have you protected people

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from spending they have to make? Firstly, you read out the average

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increases in public sector pay. That has had the biggest impact at the

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top end and those at the bottom end have been best protected, as best we

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could. Of course, we have also taken two million people out of income tax

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and increased the income tax threshold which has a big positive

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impact. We have frozen and then cut fuel duty, which would have been 20

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pence higher. I wanted to take on this point about priorities. We have

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got to make sure that we get the economy going at the same time and

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we raised more money from those at the top than we did before 2010,

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partly because we have encouraged them to invest. And this is a really

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important balance of making sure we get the books back in order, we have

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stability for family finances and we get the economy going. Why not

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spread the living wage? We know you could pay for that pay increase

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itself if you spread the living wage through the private sector and

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guarantee... The living wage being above the minimum wage? Absolutely.

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?7.65 in the rest of the country, ?8.80 in London. What is the answer?

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I'm a fan of the minimum wage. But not for public sector workers. Being

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able to pay low-paid workers as much as possible within the constraints

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of the public finances is something I have pushed very hard. The

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evidence we can increase the minimum wage has to be balanced which the

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Low Pay Commission do with the impact on the number of jobs... Even

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after a pay freeze for quite a while among public sector workers, they

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are still paid 15% on average more than those in the private sector?

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That is not true. It is, according to the ONS figures. I read that

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report this morning. If you look at the whole package, what they are

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saying is public service workers are worse off. Average earnings in the

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public sector are ?16.28 an hour compared to ?14.16 private. You are

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comparing apples and pears. It's the kind of jobs and the size of the

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workplace that people work in. They are still overall on average better

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off? Lower paid workers tend to be better off because unions negotiate

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better deals for lower paid workers. They are more unionised in the pry

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private sector. The public sector is worse off. This is a political

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strike, isn't it? There is a whole disparate range of reasons. The

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strike is saying that you are against this Government, that is

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what this is about? I this I what firefighters, local government

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workers and health workers who are protesting, too, alongside teachers

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are saying is that this Government is not listening, it is out of

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touch, people can't carry on having cuts in their living standards

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depending on benefits. When will the public sector worker ever get a real

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increase in their pay under a Conservative Government? Well, we

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certainly hope to have the books balanced by 2018. Not before then?

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2018 is when we hope to be able to be in surplus. It is testament...

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So, no real pay increase for public sector workers before 2018?

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Interestingly, this isn't just about the Conservatives and the Lib Dems,

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the Labour Party leadership have said it is a test of their

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credibility that they support the squeeze on public sector pay. I look

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forward to them, they ought to come out and say very clearly that these

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strikes are wrong and they are against the strikes and stop taking

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union money. It is a democratic right. Hold on. They are - they

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think the policy of pay restraint is necessary. Alright. On this point

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about democracy... Ask yourself why so many ordinary decent public

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service workers are so fed up. They have seen so many billions of pounds

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wasted through outsourcing to organisations like G4 S. In Unite

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and UNISON the turnout in this vote was under 20%. Alright. OK. One

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final question... Hold on. You said millions and millions voted on

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this... I want to ask you this question. Is the story in the Mail

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on Sunday today that Mr Cameron's planning a big crackdown on the

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unions over balloting, is that true? Well, strikes like this... I know

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the cases, is it true you are going to dhang the law? Strikes like this

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make that argument stronger. The Conservative Party is in Government

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on the basis of 23% of the electorate... We have run out of

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time. Thank you very much. "Should Scotland be

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an independent country?" That's the question the people of

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Scotland will answer in a referendum If the polls are to be believed,

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the voters will answer "no". But in 2011 - ten weeks before

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the Holyrood elections - the polls told us that Labour was going to win

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and look what happened there - a Alistair Darling is leading

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the campaign against independnence. is one that puts the matter of

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independence to bed for a generation. In numerical terms, what

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would that be? We need a decisive result in September, I think we will

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get that provided we get our arguments across in the next couple

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of months. What would it be in figures? I am not going to put a

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number on it. People will look at it and say, OK, you have had two and a

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half years of debate and Scotland has now decided. The polls may be

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encouraging at the moment but I am not complacent, there is still a

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long way to go. Speculating... If you don't want to answer that, that

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is fair enough. Your side claims that a vote for independence is a

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vote for massive uncertainty but if it is a no vote there is lots of

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uncertainty too. All of the Westminster parties are promising

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devolution but there is no timetable, no certainty. Yes, there

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is. For the first time I can remember, all three parties are more

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or less on the same page in terms of or less on the same page in terms of

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additional powers, we already have powers in terms of policing and

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transport, now more powers are planned in relation to tax and

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welfare. But you are all saying different things. Between 2009 and

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2012, the three parties have slightly different proposals but

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they came together and there was an agreed series of reforms in relation

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to tax which are now on the statute book. If you go back to the

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devolutionary settlement in 1998, people unified around a single

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proposition so there is history here and these three parties have

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delivered and they will deliver in the event of people saying we will

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stay part of the UK. If Scotland vote no to independence, when will

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Scotland get these extra powers? I would imagine that in the general

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election all three parties will have something in their manifesto and you

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would expect to see legislation in the session of Parliament that

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follows that. Imagining is not certainty. Because the three parties

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have said this is what they will do, and it is important having said that

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they stick to it. If you look in the past when the Nationalists said the

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same thing, when they cast doubt over what would happen in 2012, we

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delivered. The only party that walked out of both of these

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discussions were the Nationalists because they are not interested in

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more powers, they want a complete break. You cannot say that if

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Edinburgh gets more devolution that wouldn't mean fewer Scottish MPs in

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Westminster, can you? Nobody has any plans to reduce the number of MPs.

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If you step back from this moment, what people have been asked to do in

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September is to vote on the future of their country, Scotland, and

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whether we should be part of the UK. When I say part of the UK, full

:18:42.:18:44.

members of the UK with representation in the House of

:18:45.:18:48.

Commons and the institutions that affect our lives. This is a

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critically important vote. We want to see more decentralisation of

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power to Scotland, and to local authorities within Scotland, but we

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don't want a complete break with the uncertainties, the risks and the

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downright disadvantages that would throw Scotland's away if we were to

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make that break. The economic arguments are dominating people's

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thinking, the polls show, that is what is dominating at the moment.

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You cannot guarantee continued membership of the European Union

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given all the talk now about an in-out UK referendum. Firstly I

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don't think anyone has ever argued Scotland wouldn't get back in. The

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big question is the terms and conditions we would have to meet and

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we are applying to get into something that is established, it

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wouldn't be a negotiation. What we have said is there is no way Europe

:20:06.:20:10.

would let Scotland keep the rebate which Scotland has, there would be

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big questions over whether we have to join the euro, and other terms

:20:16.:20:22.

and conditions. The European Union does not act with any great speed,

:20:23.:20:28.

on average it takes eight and a half years to get into Europe. I don't

:20:29.:20:33.

want that uncertainty or the disadvantages that would come

:20:34.:20:38.

Scotland's away that come with losing clout in the European Union.

:20:39.:20:44.

The second point you asked me about is in relation to the UK's

:20:45.:20:48.

membership of the European Union, and if you look at polls, the

:20:49.:20:53.

majority of people still want to stay in the UK. Frankly, a lot of

:20:54.:21:04.

people on my side didn't make the argument against independence for a

:21:05.:21:09.

long time, we have been doing that over the last two and a half years

:21:10.:21:15.

and we are making progress and that is why I can say I think we will win

:21:16.:21:20.

provided we continue to get our arguments across. Similarly with the

:21:21.:21:23.

European Union, the case needs to be made because it is a powerful case.

:21:24.:21:29.

Isn't it true that the Nationalists win either way? They win if it is a

:21:30.:21:37.

yes vote, and they win if it is a no vote. They wanted devolution max so

:21:38.:21:46.

they win either way. There is a world of difference between

:21:47.:21:49.

devolution and further devolution where you remain part of the UK.

:21:50.:21:55.

There is a world of difference between that and making a break,

:21:56.:21:59.

where Scotland becomes a foreign country to the rest of the UK. You

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lose that security and those opportunities. You lose the same

:22:05.:22:11.

currency, the opportunity with pensions and so on. They are

:22:12.:22:19.

entitled to argue this case with passion, they want a break, but the

:22:20.:22:24.

two things are worlds apart. Gordon Brown said that the no campaign was

:22:25.:22:30.

too negative, have you adjusted to take that criticism into account?

:22:31.:22:34.

Ever since I launched this campaign over two years ago I said we would

:22:35.:22:39.

make a strong powerful case for remaining part of the UK. Look at

:22:40.:22:46.

our research, where we have had warnings from people to say that if

:22:47.:22:51.

we do well with research in Scotland we get more than our population

:22:52.:22:56.

share of the grand and we gain from that. There is a positive case but

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equally nobody will stop me from saying to the Nationalists, look at

:23:02.:23:05.

the assertions you make which are collapsing like skittles at the

:23:06.:23:09.

moment. Their assertions don't stand up. They assert that somehow milk

:23:10.:23:15.

and honey will be flowing. It is perfectly healthy within a

:23:16.:23:19.

referendum campaign to say that what you are saying simply isn't true.

:23:20.:23:27.

You have been negative, we all know about the so-called Cyber Nats book

:23:28.:23:42.

you compared Alex Salmond to the leader of North Korea. On! The

:23:43.:23:51.

context was that Alex Salmond was being asked why it was that UKIP had

:23:52.:23:57.

additional seat and he appeared to blame television being been doing

:23:58.:24:02.

from another country, from BBC South of the border. If you cannot have

:24:03.:24:11.

humour in a debate, heaven help us. I think it is important in this

:24:12.:24:16.

debate that people from outside politics should be allowed to have

:24:17.:24:21.

their say whatever side they are on because that will make for a far

:24:22.:24:26.

better, healthier debate. Nobody should be put in a state of fear and

:24:27.:24:30.

alarm by worrying about what will happen if they stand up. Despite the

:24:31.:24:36.

nastiness, more and more people are making a stand. We have run out of

:24:37.:24:43.

time. Thank you. I will be talking to the SNP's

:24:44.:24:49.

hippity leader, Nicola Sturgeon, next week on Sunday Politics.

:24:50.:24:55.

Scotland: For Richer or Poorer will be on BBC Two at 9pm tomorrow.

:24:56.:25:00.

Disastrous results in the European elections, it is fair to say the Lib

:25:01.:25:06.

Dems are down in the doldrums. In a moment I will be speaking to Nick

:25:07.:25:11.

Clegg, but first Emily has been asking what Lib Dems would say to

:25:12.:25:26.

the Prime -- Deputy Prime Minister on Call Clegg. Our phone in this

:25:27.:25:35.

week is the challenges facing the Liberal Democrats. They are rock

:25:36.:25:38.

bottom in the polls and have dire results in the local and European

:25:39.:25:44.

elections so what can the party do to turn things around? Get in

:25:45.:25:49.

touch, we are going straight to line one and Gareth. How much is a

:25:50.:25:55.

problem of that loss of local support? It is a massive problem

:25:56.:25:59.

because those are the building blocks of our success. The

:26:00.:26:03.

councillors who gets the case work done are also the people who go out

:26:04.:26:07.

councillors who gets the case work and deliver the leaflets and knock

:26:08.:26:13.

on doors. Interesting, and it is not just local support the party has

:26:14.:26:18.

lost, is it? In the next general election there are some big-name

:26:19.:26:22.

Liberal Democrat MPs standing down like Malcolm Bruce and Ming

:26:23.:26:32.

Campbell, how much of a problem will that be? That is a real challenge

:26:33.:26:37.

and we have some of our brightest and best reaching an age of maturity

:26:38.:26:43.

at the same moment so that is quite an additional test in what will be a

:26:44.:26:47.

difficult election anyway. So how does the party need to position

:26:48.:26:52.

itself to win back support? Let's go to Chris online free, has the party

:26:53.:26:59.

got its strategy right? There is always a danger of appearing to be a

:27:00.:27:07.

party that merely dilutes Labour or dilutes the Conservatives. We have a

:27:08.:27:10.

of is serious, positive messages and we need to get those across in the

:27:11.:27:15.

next election because if we don't people will vote for the Tories.

:27:16.:27:20.

Nick, what do you think of the party's message at the moment? I

:27:21.:27:26.

have had a look at early draft of our manifesto and there is some good

:27:27.:27:32.

stuff in there but the authors are probably too interested in what may

:27:33.:27:37.

think we have achieved in the last five years and not really focusing

:27:38.:27:42.

on what the voters will want to be hearing about the next five years.

:27:43.:28:10.

Perhaps they should get out more and test some of these messages on the

:28:11.:28:14.

doorstep. So you want to see the top ranks of the party on the doorstep.

:28:15.:28:18.

Gareth online one also wants to make a point about the manifesto. There

:28:19.:28:22.

is clearly a problem somewhere near the top and there are some people

:28:23.:28:27.

who seem to be obsessed with power for power's sake, and happy with a

:28:28.:28:30.

timid offer but the Liberal Democrats want to change things. We

:28:31.:28:36.

are running out of time so let's try to squeeze one more call in. What

:28:37.:28:40.

are your thoughts on the long-term future of the party? I think serious

:28:41.:28:45.

long-term danger is that the party could be relegated to the fringes of

:28:46.:28:50.

the UK and no longer being a national party. We have gone back

:28:51.:28:54.

decades if that happens because for many years we have been represented

:28:55.:28:57.

in every part of the country at some level and we have got to rescue

:28:58.:29:01.

ourselves from that. Some interesting views but we are going

:29:02.:29:05.

to have to wait until the general election next year to find out how

:29:06.:29:09.

well the Lib Dems face up to these challenges. Thanks for listening, we

:29:10.:29:14.

are going to finish with an old classic now.

:29:15.:29:16.

# I'm sorry, I'm sorry... #. Nick Clegg, welcome to the

:29:17.:29:19.

programme. I want to come onto your situation in a minute but as you

:29:20.:29:23.

will have seen in the papers, there is mounting concern over and

:29:24.:29:26.

historic Westminster paedophile ring, and files relating to it

:29:27.:29:28.

mysteriously disappearing. Why are you against a full public enquiry

:29:29.:29:32.

into this? I wouldn't rule anything out. I think we should do anything

:29:33.:29:42.

it takes to uncover this and achieve justice.

:29:43.:29:57.

delivered, even all these many years later. How do you do it? There is an

:29:58.:30:02.

inquiry in the Home Office about what's happened to these documents,

:30:03.:30:06.

serious questions need to be asked about what happened in the Home

:30:07.:30:09.

Office and those questions need to be answered. There are inquiries in

:30:10.:30:13.

the BBC, in the NHS and most importantly of all the police are

:30:14.:30:18.

looking into the places where this abuse was alleged to have taken

:30:19.:30:23.

place. All I would say is, let's make sure that justice is delivered,

:30:24.:30:29.

truth is uncovered and I think that the way to do that, as we have seen,

:30:30.:30:34.

is by allowing the police to get on with their work. You say that, but

:30:35.:30:38.

there are only seven police involved in this inquiry. There are 195

:30:39.:30:42.

involved in the hacking investigations. We can both agree

:30:43.:30:46.

that child abuse is more important and serious than hacking. The Home

:30:47.:30:51.

Office, there are reports that Home Office officials may have been

:30:52.:30:54.

mentioned in the dossier, people don't trust people to investigate

:30:55.:31:00.

themselves, Mr Clegg? No, I accept that we need to make sure that - and

:31:01.:31:04.

the police need to make sure that the police investigations are

:31:05.:31:07.

thorough, well resourced. I can't think of anything more horrendous, I

:31:08.:31:13.

can't, than powerful people organising themselves and worse

:31:14.:31:16.

still, this is what is alleged, covering up for each other to abuse

:31:17.:31:20.

the most vulnerable people in society's care - children. But at

:31:21.:31:24.

the end of the day, the only way you can get people in the dock, the only

:31:25.:31:30.

way you can get people charged, is by allowing the prosecuting

:31:31.:31:32.

authorities and the police to do their job. I have an open mind about

:31:33.:31:38.

what other inquiries take place. A number of other inquiries are taking

:31:39.:31:42.

place. I assume any additional inquiries wouldn't be able to second

:31:43.:31:45.

guess or look into the matters which the police are looking into already.

:31:46.:31:49.

All I would say is that people who have information, who want to

:31:50.:31:52.

provide information which they think is relevant to this, please get in

:31:53.:31:55.

touch with the police. Alright. Let's come on to our own inquiry

:31:56.:32:00.

into the state of the Lib Dems. You have attempted to distance yourself

:32:01.:32:04.

and the party from the Tories, but still stay in Government - it is

:32:05.:32:08.

called aggressive differentiation. Why isn't it working? It's not

:32:09.:32:14.

called aggressive differentiation. It is called "coalition". It is two

:32:15.:32:20.

parties who retain different identities, different values, have

:32:21.:32:22.

different aspirations for the future. But during this Parliament

:32:23.:32:26.

have come together because we were facing a unique national emergency

:32:27.:32:30.

back in 2010, the economy was teetering on the edge of a

:32:31.:32:34.

precipice. I'm immensely proud, notwithstanding our political

:32:35.:32:38.

challenges, which are real, I'm immensely proud that the Liberal

:32:39.:32:40.

Democrats, we stepped up to the plate, held our nerve and without

:32:41.:32:43.

the Liberal Democrats, there wouldn't now be that economic

:32:44.:32:46.

recovery which is helping many people across the country. Why

:32:47.:32:49.

aren't you getting any credit for it? Well, we won't get credit if we

:32:50.:32:57.

spend all our time staring at our navals. If it wasn't for the Liberal

:32:58.:33:01.

Democrats, there wouldn't be more jobs now available to people. They

:33:02.:33:06.

don't believe you, they are giving the Tories the credit for the

:33:07.:33:14.

recovery? Well, you might assert that, we will assert and I will

:33:15.:33:18.

shout it from the rooftops that if we had not created the stability by

:33:19.:33:23.

forming this Coalition Government and then hard-wired into the

:33:24.:33:26.

Government's plans, not only the gory job of fixing the public

:33:27.:33:30.

finances, but doing so much more fairly than would have been the

:33:31.:33:33.

case, if the Conservatives had been in Government on their own, they

:33:34.:33:36.

wouldn't have delivered these tax cuts. They wouldn't have delivered

:33:37.:33:41.

the triple lock guarantee for pensions or the pupil premium. OK.

:33:42.:33:48.

Why are you 8% in the polls? Well, because I think where we get our

:33:49.:33:53.

message across - and I am here in my own constituency - this is a

:33:54.:34:03.

constituency where I am a campaigning MP - we can dispel a lot

:34:04.:34:09.

of the information and say we have done a decent thing by going into

:34:10.:34:12.

Government and we have delivered big changes, big reforms which you can

:34:13.:34:16.

touch and see in your school, in your pensions, in your taxes and

:34:17.:34:23.

then people do support us and, in our areas of strength, we were

:34:24.:34:27.

winning against both the Conservative and Labour parties. It

:34:28.:34:30.

is a big effort. Of course, there are lots of people from both left

:34:31.:34:33.

and right who want to shout us down and want to vilify our role in

:34:34.:34:37.

Government. What we also need to do - and Nick Harvey was quite right -

:34:38.:34:42.

having been proud of our record of delivery, we also need to set out in

:34:43.:34:47.

our manifesto as we are and as we will our promise of more, of more

:34:48.:34:53.

support in schools. So why is it then... Why is it then that a Lib

:34:54.:35:01.

Dem MP in our own film says you are in danger of no longer becoming a

:35:02.:35:05.

National Party. That could be the Clegg legacy, you cease to be a

:35:06.:35:07.

National Party? are in danger of no longer being a

:35:08.:35:11.

National Party, that could be your legacy. I am a practical man and I

:35:12.:35:16.

believe passionately in what we have done in politics. I don't spend that

:35:17.:35:21.

much time speculating endlessly that the end might be nine. Let's get out

:35:22.:35:28.

there, which is what I do, which is what thousands of activists do, and

:35:29.:35:31.

say we are proud of what we have done, we've done a good thing for

:35:32.:35:34.

the country, we've delivered Maud Lib Dem policies than the party has

:35:35.:35:38.

ever dreamt of delivering before, and we have a programme of change,

:35:39.:35:43.

of reform, of liberal reform for the future which is very exciting. I

:35:44.:35:47.

have been setting out our plans of providing more help to carers, to

:35:48.:35:52.

making sure that teachers are properly qualified, that all

:35:53.:35:57.

children in schools are being taught a proper for curriculum. That part

:35:58.:36:00.

company from the ideological rigidity with which the

:36:01.:36:04.

Conservatives deal with education policy. Those are things which speak

:36:05.:36:09.

to the values of people who support us in the past and might do in the

:36:10.:36:14.

future. You say that but when another senior Lib Dem gets out and

:36:15.:36:17.

about, he told this programme two weeks ago that he finds that you,

:36:18.:36:21.

personally, are toxic on the doorstep! As everybody knows, being

:36:22.:36:29.

the leader of a party which, for the first time in its history, goes into

:36:30.:36:32.

government, which is already a controversial thing to do because

:36:33.:36:36.

you are governing -- of winning without erstwhile enemies, the

:36:37.:36:41.

Conservatives, and then doing the difficult and unpopular things to

:36:42.:36:45.

fix the broken economy, left to us by Labour, of course, as leader of

:36:46.:36:49.

that party, I get a lot of incoming fire. The right to say that I am

:36:50.:36:52.

stopping the Conservatives doing what they want. There is a good

:36:53.:36:57.

reason for that, they didn't wind the election. The left say that we

:36:58.:37:01.

have left our soul, when we haven't. That happens day in and day

:37:02.:37:13.

out. That will have some effect, but my answer is not to buckle to those

:37:14.:37:15.

criticisms, those misplaced criticisms, but to stand up proudly

:37:16.:37:18.

for what we have done and what we want to do in the future. Is it

:37:19.:37:21.

still your intention to fight the next election against and in out

:37:22.:37:24.

referendum on Europe unless there is a major change? Our position hasn't

:37:25.:37:33.

wavered. It won't. We will not flip flop on the issue of the referendum

:37:34.:37:38.

like the Conservatives do. We want and in out referendum, and we have

:37:39.:37:41.

legislated for the trigger when that happens. That is what we have said

:37:42.:37:47.

for many years. We have legislated for that. There is no change. We

:37:48.:37:56.

expect a reshuffle shortly, will you keep Vince Cable as Business

:37:57.:37:58.

Secretary all the way to the election? I am immensely proud of

:37:59.:38:03.

what he has done. Yes, I am absolutely intent on ticking sure

:38:04.:38:08.

that Vince Cable serves the government in his present capacity.

:38:09.:38:13.

Look what he has done on apprenticeships, industrial policy.

:38:14.:38:16.

He's done more than many people to make sure we build up manufacturing

:38:17.:38:21.

in the north, not just the south. We've have talked about some heavy

:38:22.:38:25.

things, let's finish on a lighter note. You got into kick boxing to

:38:26.:38:30.

get fit, is there any danger of you becoming a middle aged man in

:38:31.:38:39.

Lycra? Will the Tour de France influence you to become one?

:38:40.:38:44.

Absolutely not. Having seen the grant apart, the Tour de France

:38:45.:38:48.

start yesterday near Leeds, I have the yellow Yorkshire sign on my

:38:49.:38:53.

pullover, I am going to see them later whisked through my

:38:54.:38:56.

constituency, they are very impressive but I will not try to

:38:57.:39:00.

emulate them. To the relief of a grateful nation. Nick Clegg, thank

:39:01.:39:06.

you very much. Coming up to 11:40am, we say goodbye to viewers in

:39:07.:39:09.

Good morning and welcome to Sunday Politics Scotland.

:39:10.:39:15.

A commission of independent experts calls for an overhaul of tax

:39:16.:39:21.

and regulation systems for the North Sea oil and gas sector.

:39:22.:39:28.

Ryanair moves a third of its flights from Prestwick to Glasgow.

:39:29.:39:31.

We'll ask the Transport Minister Keith Brown what

:39:32.:39:32.

the future holds for the Ayrshire airport bought for ?1.

:39:33.:39:44.

I name this ship Queen Elisabeth. May God bless her and all who sail

:39:45.:39:49.

in her. HMS Queen Elizabeth,

:39:50.:39:55.

described as the jewel in the crown of UK defence, but questions remain

:39:56.:39:57.

over her deployment. The North Sea needs a new tax

:39:58.:40:03.

and regulation regime, An independent commission set up

:40:04.:40:06.

by the Scottish government is recommending "fundamental change"

:40:07.:40:10.

to encourage new investment The Scottish government promises

:40:11.:40:12.

a more stable tax regime if there's a yes vote in the

:40:13.:40:16.

independence referendum, but the UK government argues that it's better

:40:17.:40:19.

placed to support the industry. The commission, chaired by

:40:20.:40:35.

Campbell, is working on the bases there are around 24 billion barrels

:40:36.:40:39.

of oil store be -- to be extracted from the North Sea, and they see

:40:40.:40:44.

that as a major opportunity but one which the UK continental shelf is

:40:45.:40:48.

not as attractive in investment as it was. We are at a tipping point

:40:49.:40:51.

and there is part of the tax regime which would be appropriate going

:40:52.:40:55.

forward with some changes, but there are other parts where, if we will

:40:56.:41:01.

target accessing the more difficult oil and more expensive oil, we will

:41:02.:41:06.

have to modify and update the tax regime. To change that, they say

:41:07.:41:10.

government needs to work out a more stable, predictable and

:41:11.:41:14.

internationally competitive tax regime and they suggest lower taxes

:41:15.:41:18.

with a modified allowances could incentivise new development. The

:41:19.:41:21.

Scottish covenant has welcomed their report and promised a stable tax

:41:22.:41:25.

regime if Scotland becomes independent. If you are investing

:41:26.:41:29.

several billion dollars, then you want to know you're not going to be

:41:30.:41:36.

hit with sudden tax hikes. The tax regime in the UK has been

:41:37.:41:39.

characterised, I'm afraid, by a series of unheralded tax breaks,

:41:40.:41:46.

most recently by Danny Alexander in 2011, brought forward without any

:41:47.:41:50.

consultation whatsoever. That was a disaster. The UK Government argues

:41:51.:41:59.

that the industry's best supported within a large economy, less

:42:00.:42:00.

dependent on oil and gas revenues. Well, joining me now is

:42:01.:42:02.

the economist and journalist George Kerevan and, in London, Kiran Stacey

:42:03.:42:05.

who's a political correspondent One of the things I found very

:42:06.:42:16.

sobering is there has been talk about so much oil left, and

:42:17.:42:21.

investment at record levels, but what it says is that while it is

:42:22.:42:25.

true that investment is at record levels, exploration activity are at

:42:26.:42:34.

a record low, which kind of puts this into perspective, doesn't it? I

:42:35.:42:42.

don't think... The UK Treasury has treated this will industry as a

:42:43.:42:45.

piggy bank to squeeze out as much cash as much as possible. This is

:42:46.:42:51.

not a farmer working the field, squeezing the crops and destroying

:42:52.:42:56.

the fields, you need to think longer term. They want to get away from a

:42:57.:43:04.

policy of get as much tax revenue out as possible as quickly as

:43:05.:43:07.

possible to let's grow the industry, let's grow the jobs and

:43:08.:43:12.

technology and look longer term. If you do that, you'll get the money as

:43:13.:43:18.

well. That is a fundamental shift. The problem is the Scottish covenant

:43:19.:43:22.

have made so many promises about independence which are reliant on

:43:23.:43:25.

these oil revenues. The aggregate revenues over a number of years

:43:26.:43:30.

might increase if you could get the North Sea to go on longer but, in

:43:31.:43:33.

the short time, with these proposals, it would mean taking it

:43:34.:43:39.

on annual. It doesn't actually say cut taxes as such. It does,

:43:40.:43:45.

actually. Cutting the headline rate, right. The tax regime in the North

:43:46.:43:52.

Sea is fiendishly complicated. We are not getting into it! Do not do!

:43:53.:44:00.

I will not. Every new field has a new tax regime. The accountants

:44:01.:44:07.

cannot cope with it. What they are suggesting, the industry

:44:08.:44:10.

heavyweights, is let's simplify the whole thing. The overall tax take

:44:11.:44:17.

home will be the same. So, the headline rate might come down but

:44:18.:44:21.

there might be changes for different fields. So, they are not suggesting

:44:22.:44:27.

to cut the tax. What they want instability, knowing that when you

:44:28.:44:31.

wake up on budget day, they haven't changed the taxes so your whole

:44:32.:44:35.

business plan is out of the window, which is what has happened in the

:44:36.:44:40.

past. There is nothing, is there, that the UK Government would

:44:41.:44:42.

necessarily disagree with in this report. The fundamental point,

:44:43.:44:48.

taking the politics out of it is that the existing tax regime was

:44:49.:44:53.

developed when it was on the rise. It is now a declining area. And they

:44:54.:44:57.

want to maximise investment because it is higher cost to get things out,

:44:58.:45:02.

therefore you need a different tax regime. I think that's right. We

:45:03.:45:07.

have already had another review which has been accepted across the

:45:08.:45:11.

political divide which suggests something similar, they suggest

:45:12.:45:14.

there needs to be more collaboration both within the industry and between

:45:15.:45:19.

government and the industry to get more stability into the tax and

:45:20.:45:23.

regulation regime. It talks about a lot of collaboration, even after

:45:24.:45:30.

independence. What the industry has in mind is what happened in 2011,

:45:31.:45:35.

that you hinted at, which was caught Osborne mounting a 2 billion pound

:45:36.:45:41.

tax rate on the industry, which frightened a lot of people out

:45:42.:45:45.

there. It made people think again about what kind of regime they need

:45:46.:45:50.

to have. The facts are stark. The cost of developing oil have gone up

:45:51.:45:55.

five times over the last decade, but the review thought that if those

:45:56.:45:59.

proposals were carried out, it could mean an extra ?200 billion worth of

:46:00.:46:04.

oil and gas coming through into Scottish covers, or UK cough is, as

:46:05.:46:10.

a result of that. So this is pushing in the same direction, talking bout

:46:11.:46:13.

collaboration, stability of tax regime, talking about people having

:46:14.:46:18.

the time to plan because it is harder and harder and more and more

:46:19.:46:23.

expensive to get oil and gas out of the North Sea. You, presumably,

:46:24.:46:27.

would agree with that. Moffatt Campbell made the point that he

:46:28.:46:31.

would like this to be taken on board, irrespective of the

:46:32.:46:36.

referendum, said if it is no vote, he'd like the UK Government to say

:46:37.:46:40.

it is quite sensible and to have a look at it. This is common-sense.

:46:41.:46:47.

The question is will the politicians deliver North and South? I think

:46:48.:46:51.

what you might find from the Scottish Government is that it will

:46:52.:46:58.

take on board the proposal... That individual fields, with the license

:46:59.:47:06.

is provided to them, that is a commitment that the Scottish

:47:07.:47:09.

Government will have to consult if there are any changes. It is too

:47:10.:47:12.

easy for politicians to say they will consult, that has to be a legal

:47:13.:47:17.

basis. Written into the contract? Yes. Are you preventing the kind of

:47:18.:47:25.

tax grab that we were talking about? Consultation doesn't stop

:47:26.:47:31.

politicians changing the taxes but what you are committed to doing is

:47:32.:47:34.

having a formal period of consultation. If you do that, you

:47:35.:47:39.

create stability long-term. The problem is that it has happened time

:47:40.:47:43.

and time again, you wake up on the morning of the budget, and things

:47:44.:47:48.

have changed, and your entire investment strategy is dead in the

:47:49.:47:52.

water. Is there an elephant in the room here, which is that we all

:47:53.:47:57.

assumed... I am not getting your question, sorry. Is there an

:47:58.:48:01.

elephant in the room that oil prices would stay high, but with shale oil,

:48:02.:48:08.

shale gas, huge new reserves coming on stream, renewables and great

:48:09.:48:12.

efficiencies, the outlook for the North Sea might be more trouble than

:48:13.:48:15.

has been assumed? That is exactly right. The tax regime is beside the

:48:16.:48:22.

point. The reality is, as I mentioned before, it's hard and more

:48:23.:48:26.

expensive to get oil out, but it is cheaper and more profitable to get

:48:27.:48:30.

it out of other places, particularly in the States with the massive shale

:48:31.:48:36.

gas boom. That kind of development is driving down oil costs, so what

:48:37.:48:40.

the industry has to cope with is this situation where it is more

:48:41.:48:43.

expensive to get oil out, they are not getting as much money for it as

:48:44.:48:47.

they sell it on, and the tax regime is not that much to do with it,

:48:48.:48:52.

although it does generate certainty if the government can say over a

:48:53.:48:55.

long period of time this is what we will taxi. What these companies want

:48:56.:48:59.

is for the oil prices to be higher, and there's nothing that the

:49:00.:49:03.

government can about that. Thank you both.

:49:04.:49:05.

Last month, the Scottish Government outlined its multimillion pound

:49:06.:49:07.

investment plans for the recovery of Prestwick Airport.

:49:08.:49:09.

This week, the airport's only passenger carrier, Ryanair,

:49:10.:49:11.

announced new routes from Glasgow and Edinburgh airports with a

:49:12.:49:13.

What does this mean for the airport's commercial viability?

:49:14.:49:17.

Bought for ?1 and with an eye watering amount

:49:18.:49:24.

of excess baggage, the future of Prestwick Airport is a key concern

:49:25.:49:27.

The Scottish Government is making an investment in the airport. That

:49:28.:49:40.

investment will be in the form of loan funding, and we want a

:49:41.:49:44.

long-term return for taxpayer money. That investment is worth nearly

:49:45.:49:50.

?10 million on top of ?5.5 million The money will fund repairs and make

:49:51.:49:53.

improvements to the terminal, but there's concern fewer passengers

:49:54.:49:56.

will be passing through its doors as It is clearly serious reducing the

:49:57.:50:11.

number of flights and passenger movements. We are slightly

:50:12.:50:17.

disappointed that it did not support those at Prestwick airport but

:50:18.:50:23.

Ryanair will continue to have a role at Prestwick which is quite

:50:24.:50:32.

positive. The change will move brutes away from Prestwick bringing

:50:33.:50:39.

the number of Ryan near passengers down to 500,000 per year. The firm

:50:40.:50:45.

insists it is not backing away from your sure. We are in discussions

:50:46.:50:52.

with Prestwick airport and the Scottish Government. We have a large

:50:53.:50:57.

presence with over 300 staff employed at Prestwick airport. The

:50:58.:51:06.

passenger side seems to have taken a bit of a blow this week. Additional

:51:07.:51:13.

routes will attract more customers in an overcrowded market. I do

:51:14.:51:21.

believe there is enough business for everyone

:51:22.:51:21.

believe there is enough business for but at the end of the day the

:51:22.:51:25.

airlines will fly wherever they want, where they think they will

:51:26.:51:30.

make more money so the airlines will decide on their plans for the

:51:31.:51:31.

future. There is a growing focus on the main

:51:32.:51:37.

competitors in the central belt. There was a monopoly in the central

:51:38.:51:58.

belt but Ryan near enabled the first low-cost flights to come in to

:51:59.:52:04.

Stansted. Now that they are competing heavily you do not need

:52:05.:52:09.

that degree of competition so Prestwick which was a useful

:52:10.:52:15.

bargaining chip simply is not that relevant to the low-cost airlines

:52:16.:52:22.

today. Only half of the airport's current income is generated by

:52:23.:52:28.

passenger trade, the rest is dedicated to free it. It is a unique

:52:29.:52:40.

airport in the UK, it is fog free, it is linked to the real network. We

:52:41.:52:47.

are hopeful the is a sustainable future. -- rail network. Industry

:52:48.:53:02.

experts say unwanted delays should be expected. I am joined by the

:53:03.:53:11.

transport minister and a Conservative MP from Aberdeen. Isn't

:53:12.:53:16.

the sad reality that you might have been better at keeping your pound in

:53:17.:53:20.

your pocket and alarming Prestwick to close. As was being said their

:53:21.:53:26.

comedy does not seem a lot of point to it? There are 400 people directly

:53:27.:53:37.

in Clwyd and more than 3000 rely on it directly for their employment. In

:53:38.:53:43.

economic terms and aviation terms wouldn't it be better to move those

:53:44.:53:50.

jobs elsewhere. -- directly employed. Whether it is freed or

:53:51.:54:01.

aircraft repair, crucially in terms of passenger services the airlines

:54:02.:54:06.

will move around. We have to make sure the facilities are such that we

:54:07.:54:15.

can attract new flights in. Have you got any proposals? Are their any

:54:16.:54:20.

discussions going on to get new airlines to operate from Prestwick?

:54:21.:54:28.

There is a prospect. The fact that Ryanair have moved and are tripling

:54:29.:54:33.

the flights to Dublin rather than from Glasgow and Prestwick. Who are

:54:34.:54:40.

these airlines that are going to move in? EasyJet? You do not

:54:41.:54:48.

restrict yourself to one carrier. Name one. There is no restricted

:54:49.:54:59.

list, any of them. You can surely tell us who you are discussing

:55:00.:55:05.

with? That is up to the airport and the people in charge of marketing.

:55:06.:55:12.

It was losing between one and ?3 million per year, we are only in the

:55:13.:55:16.

first three months of taking over the airport. It is not making money,

:55:17.:55:25.

is it? Faced with the prospect of closure and the massive

:55:26.:55:30.

redundancies... So you do not actually, in response to why you did

:55:31.:55:37.

not close it and redeploy the people elsewhere, your answer is you are

:55:38.:55:43.

not sure. You are having unspecified negotiations with unspecified

:55:44.:55:46.

carriers who might do unspecified things that sometime in the future?

:55:47.:55:53.

That was not the answer. There are other services that go on at

:55:54.:55:57.

Prestwick, whether the fleet services, unique services such as

:55:58.:56:03.

the train service. We think there are real selling points for the

:56:04.:56:13.

airport. One of the reasons for not having publicly owned airports in

:56:14.:56:18.

the first place was because the airlines do more than ministers for

:56:19.:56:32.

them. The Conservatives keep saying there must be a proper business

:56:33.:56:37.

case, are you convinced there is one? I am not convinced the is one.

:56:38.:56:42.

They did the right thing by not allowing the airport to collapse

:56:43.:56:50.

overnight but the government is not taking the opportunity it has to go

:56:51.:56:54.

forward and do other things as a government to improve the prospects

:56:55.:57:01.

of Prestwick airport. I have been talking for years about the

:57:02.:57:05.

replacement for the group development fund. Prestwick could

:57:06.:57:11.

benefit enormously from one of those which supported the creation of new

:57:12.:57:17.

routes. Give us an example, Keith Brown could not, will you be more

:57:18.:57:25.

specific? Tell me an airline or the route that you could get into

:57:26.:57:31.

Prestwick. I cannot tell you the name of an airline that may be

:57:32.:57:36.

interested but in the past Prestwick found a niche as an airport on the

:57:37.:57:41.

extreme north-west of Europe that serve all airlines by refuelling

:57:42.:57:48.

aircraft crossed the Atlantic and after the arrived here. The Scottish

:57:49.:57:52.

Government is talking about bringing long-haul flights to Scotland in a

:57:53.:57:57.

way we have not done in the past. That could involve the use of

:57:58.:58:03.

extremely large passenger aircraft and Prestwick may be the place to

:58:04.:58:10.

land and take them off in Scotland. Perhaps I was wide off the mark with

:58:11.:58:17.

Korean airlines but he is suggesting they may well come? I did not say I

:58:18.:58:22.

could not give you an airline but I would not. It is sensitive matter

:58:23.:58:30.

shall activity. He is suggesting use the runway to do intercontinental

:58:31.:58:37.

flights that at the moment do not come into Scotland. Alex Salmond is

:58:38.:58:42.

keen on more links with China, would Prestwick be the place for that? It

:58:43.:58:49.

could be. We have to get the right package to these airlines. He knows

:58:50.:58:55.

it is outlawed by The European Commission and we have been

:58:56.:58:58.

successful at getting new routes into Lascaux, Edinburgh and Aberdeen

:58:59.:59:06.

by providing a package. We use that same expertise to attract new

:59:07.:59:11.

business into Prestwick as well as the vitally important freight and

:59:12.:59:13.

ground-based activities going on just now. I'd macro if the worst

:59:14.:59:20.

comes to it and Prestwick airport has to close, that whole operation

:59:21.:59:25.

could be moved somewhere else, could it not? Or it could stay at

:59:26.:59:29.

Prestwick even if it was not an airport? Our plan is to keep it as

:59:30.:59:38.

an airport. It is a long-term proposal. It is the long-term skill

:59:39.:59:44.

to get them back into the operation we would like to see. It will take

:59:45.:59:53.

some time to get this back. We will have to leave it there. Thank you

:59:54.:59:58.

both for joining us. Now let us cross for the news. Good afternoon.

:59:59.:00:10.

Oil and gas experts are recommending a new tax and regulation regime for

:00:11.:00:16.

the North Sea. There are calls for fundamental change to encourage

:00:17.:00:25.

funding. There are estimates that 24 billion barrels of oil are still to

:00:26.:00:31.

be extracted. We are at the tipping point. There are parts of the tax

:00:32.:00:36.

regime that could go forward with changes. If we are going to target

:00:37.:00:42.

accessing the more difficult oil we will have to modify and upgrade the

:00:43.:00:48.

tax regime. The Scottish Government has welcomed the report and promised

:00:49.:00:53.

a stable tax regime if Scotland becomes independent. A search is

:00:54.:01:01.

continuing today after a canoeist went missing in Perthshire. Boat

:01:02.:01:09.

capsized shortly before five yesterday evening in culling area.

:01:10.:01:15.

One of the occupants made it to shore. A 29-year-old man is still

:01:16.:01:24.

missing. -- Killin. Friends of the Earth has criticised organisers of

:01:25.:01:30.

the Commonwealth Games. The say they have fallen short of the original

:01:31.:01:37.

promises to create low emission zones. Time for a look at the

:01:38.:01:46.

weather. Good afternoon. Little change in terms of the weather this

:01:47.:01:51.

afternoon. More in the way of sunshine and showers. The focus of

:01:52.:01:57.

the showers will be across the West Highlands and into Western

:01:58.:02:02.

Aberdeenshire. There could be some heavy and thundery downpours.

:02:03.:02:06.

Glasgow and the south-west hold onto drier weather with the West Coast

:02:07.:02:13.

seeing plenty sunshine. That is the forecast. That is all for now. Back

:02:14.:02:23.

to the studio. The first Sea Lord describe it as the first dual in the

:02:24.:02:28.

crown of the UK sea defence. The largest warship ever built for the

:02:29.:02:36.

Royal Navy was officially built and -- was officially commemorated by

:02:37.:02:42.

the Queen. The ship still has to be fitted out and launched. Significant

:02:43.:02:51.

spending decisions which will decide how the carriers are used in the

:02:52.:02:58.

future are yet to be decided. A further order is expected in the

:02:59.:03:01.

next three months but the carriers will be without any planes until

:03:02.:03:08.

2020. The role of the second carrier is still in the balance. Others are

:03:09.:03:18.

still to be commissioned. We are joined by an expert now. Can I ask a

:03:19.:03:27.

very basic question, someone in a radio programme the other day said

:03:28.:03:34.

the problem with these carriers is that the Russians already have

:03:35.:03:38.

missiles which can blow them out of the water so they are obsolete as

:03:39.:03:41.

they are launched, is there any truth in that? The military

:03:42.:03:48.

capability exercise by many nations, not just Russia but Japan, China,

:03:49.:03:55.

Iran, Israel, everyone holds anti-ship missiles which could

:03:56.:03:59.

theoretically take on any aircraft carrier, whether British, US,

:04:00.:04:06.

Chinese, Korean, Japanese, they could be hit and sunk by one of

:04:07.:04:11.

these missiles. Normally when a ship goes to see it is surrounded by

:04:12.:04:16.

layers of protection which enable that threat to be defeated. It is

:04:17.:04:21.

not just those on board but other ships around it which enable those

:04:22.:04:30.

risks to be exercised at sea. Be allowed on board systems and they

:04:31.:04:34.

have them on-board frigates and destroyers surrounding it, with the

:04:35.:04:44.

guarantee it could not hit? There are concerns that there aren't a

:04:45.:04:48.

sufficient number of destroyers to provide protection against a

:04:49.:04:51.

high-end thread. On the other hand, you can mitigate against such

:04:52.:04:57.

threats by how you position and use the carrier. If you go back to the

:04:58.:05:02.

Falklands in 1982, eight destroyers were used to protect the carrier in

:05:03.:05:07.

various ways. It was still felt there was a significant threat is

:05:08.:05:10.

not from missiles but from submarines, and, as such, both of

:05:11.:05:17.

the carriers that were used words kept it significant distance for

:05:18.:05:20.

periods of time, and then surged as they moved forward. They mitigated

:05:21.:05:24.

the risk both from missiles and from submarines. These are conjugated

:05:25.:05:30.

questions. I understand, but there is an element here to say that don't

:05:31.:05:36.

take the carrier anywhere dangerous, yet the hall point is precisely to

:05:37.:05:40.

take it somewhere dangerous. I think that's right. There are degrees of

:05:41.:05:48.

risk and danger. If you're going up against a very sophisticated

:05:49.:05:52.

high-end threat, you'd want to be taking most of the Royal Navy to

:05:53.:05:55.

protect this carrier and you'd be wanting to have some extra

:05:56.:06:00.

assistance, perhaps from American or French colleagues and counterparts,

:06:01.:06:05.

perhaps as part of a NATO group, but for 90% of the time, when you're

:06:06.:06:10.

doing constabulary operations, perhaps supporting operations with

:06:11.:06:16.

the French in North Africa, you require less protection. It depends

:06:17.:06:19.

on the situation and the risk you're willing to take. What about HMS

:06:20.:06:25.

Prince of Wales? Danny Alexander said it would be available to the

:06:26.:06:30.

British Armed Forces, but is it down there in black-and-white? Have a

:06:31.:06:34.

definitely decided to keep it? And if they have, have they decided to

:06:35.:06:38.

keep it in such a way that it could be operational when the first

:06:39.:06:43.

carrier is in dock for maintenance? This is a good question and it

:06:44.:06:49.

hasn't been codified yet. So far, the position with Prince of Wales is

:06:50.:06:52.

that it could be put in, but they could also sell it to the Brazilians

:06:53.:06:59.

or another state, they could mothball it, and not use it at all,

:07:00.:07:03.

they could bring it out and use it in an amphibious role with just

:07:04.:07:09.

helicopters. I think these decisions are ready important. It will

:07:10.:07:13.

characterise how Britain will do intervention in the future. With one

:07:14.:07:17.

carrier, we are limited like the French to Britain going in, going in

:07:18.:07:24.

fast, hard, turning around and going home so your mission is done within

:07:25.:07:29.

eight or nine months. That is attractive with some models of

:07:30.:07:34.

intervention like the recent operations in Africa. But for

:07:35.:07:39.

something long-term, you need to have more than one carrier. And here

:07:40.:07:45.

we look at Kosovo, Bosnia, those ones that have had real success. Not

:07:46.:07:50.

just in the war fighting or deterrence. In the 1960s, Iraqi was

:07:51.:07:55.

going to invade Kuwait, and it looked likely that it that region

:07:56.:08:03.

was going to be taken over with the threat to the UK because of the

:08:04.:08:08.

cut-off of supply. They walked in, fronted up, they didn't even need to

:08:09.:08:12.

launch aircraft because that statement of intent prevented that.

:08:13.:08:17.

Thanks very much indeed for joining us.

:08:18.:08:18.

Now it's time for a look at the week ahead.

:08:19.:08:23.

Our guests this week are Alan Roden, Scottish political editor

:08:24.:08:26.

of the Daily Mail, and Murray Ritchie,

:08:27.:08:28.

former political editor at the Herald.

:08:29.:08:34.

Just a quick comment on this oil and gas report which came out this

:08:35.:08:42.

morning. You could argue it either way. It will be used by both sides

:08:43.:08:48.

of the referendum campaign. Of course, the Scottish Government will

:08:49.:08:54.

-- has responded, and the UK Government will respond. The UK

:08:55.:08:58.

Government will say that the tax regime is better with the UK, the

:08:59.:09:01.

Scottish Government will say the opposite. The UK Government will say

:09:02.:09:06.

the oil is harder to get out, the Scottish Government will say there

:09:07.:09:09.

is lots left. The Scottish Government have welcomed it, which

:09:10.:09:14.

is significant. Oil is more expensive to get out, and the tax

:09:15.:09:19.

regime reflects that. So it is a perfectly sensible report, and both

:09:20.:09:23.

governments will welcome it although the UK Government is being a bit

:09:24.:09:30.

iffy. Other stuff, a story about academics and independence, Sir Paul

:09:31.:09:35.

nurse is asking the Scottish and British government is to pledge that

:09:36.:09:44.

academics will not be penalised. Is this academics worrying needlessly?

:09:45.:09:48.

There was some evidence earlier this year when a Dundee University

:09:49.:09:53.

academics spoke out and then the university was contacted by a

:09:54.:09:56.

Scottish government minister, said there is some evidence that there

:09:57.:09:59.

might be some element of intimidation going on, but academics

:10:00.:10:02.

are bright enough to know they should be able to speak out, and

:10:03.:10:06.

plenty of them have spoken out and will continue to do so. Whatever the

:10:07.:10:12.

details of that is, the suggestion that somehow or other, you will be

:10:13.:10:17.

penalised in the sense you might not get research funding, is there any

:10:18.:10:21.

evidence for that? There is no strong evidence, but there are fears

:10:22.:10:26.

of that, which is what we have seen entered a's papers. More

:10:27.:10:31.

interestingly, it is businesses that are concerned about the impact of

:10:32.:10:35.

this. They are more scared to speak out because of fear of being

:10:36.:10:40.

penalised. Even if the Scottish Government has listened to this,

:10:41.:10:43.

there is a bit of fear around. People laugh hearing... Part of the

:10:44.:10:51.

problem is that lots of places are tied to the state. Yes, but nobody

:10:52.:10:57.

is being deliberately silenced. Their arguments all over the place.

:10:58.:11:03.

Academics are reticent, they are always desperate to give their

:11:04.:11:07.

latest eye views and opinions. So I don't see why they shouldn't. And it

:11:08.:11:17.

looks the independence referendum look positively polite! Other

:11:18.:11:24.

stories, the police and guns. Graham Pearson has written to Kenny

:11:25.:11:27.

MacAskill over the lack of consultation. This is about... We

:11:28.:11:31.

should make it clear, the police have had guns for some time, but

:11:32.:11:36.

they were carried by guns, you had to contact a senior officer to

:11:37.:11:39.

unlock them, but we are moving to a situation where the police are

:11:40.:11:42.

carrying them around on the street and there seems to be a blip

:11:43.:11:49.

concern, and I am not sure whether the fact that there was no

:11:50.:11:58.

consultation is the worry. It is worrying. I am comfortable with the

:11:59.:12:04.

fact that the police are not routinely armed, unlike America or

:12:05.:12:10.

Belfast. At the airport, when you see a machine gun, it can be

:12:11.:12:14.

disconcerting. So when people are aware the police are armed and not

:12:15.:12:18.

telling us they are armed, it is alarming. If they told us they were

:12:19.:12:24.

doing it for a specific purpose, if there was a terrorist threat or

:12:25.:12:27.

security problem, but if they are doing it covertly, we have to watch

:12:28.:12:34.

that carefully. The latest case was people complaining that in a

:12:35.:12:39.

McDonald's restaurant in Inverness, there were policeman in their openly

:12:40.:12:44.

carrying weapons. I agree with Murray. It is the Highland region

:12:45.:12:48.

where we have seen police carrying the guns. I think because it has

:12:49.:12:52.

spread to there. It didn't happen in that area before. The lack of

:12:53.:12:58.

consultation is worrying. We've seen other examples of this with Police

:12:59.:13:02.

Scotland now that it is centralised, we were not being told

:13:03.:13:06.

enough, and the public are rightly concerned. If the police are

:13:07.:13:08.

carrying guns, that would cause alarms. With the stop and search

:13:09.:13:15.

issue, there are allegations that police are making up stop and

:13:16.:13:18.

searches in their reports because they are being bullied into senior

:13:19.:13:22.

officers. And they are also doing a lot of stop and searches that have

:13:23.:13:26.

no statuary bases. There's a lovely quote saying you breach and rights

:13:27.:13:30.

by doing it, but you expect us to do it. Stop and search is a big issue

:13:31.:13:36.

and happening a lot more in Scotland than in England. Add there is a

:13:37.:13:41.

problem. If they catch someone with a knife, that's a good thing.

:13:42.:13:46.

Excessive bureaucracy, and we should stop it. Right, so don't do any

:13:47.:13:51.

more? All right. That is all we have time for this week. I'll be back at

:13:52.:13:55.

the same time next week. From all of us, goodbye.

:13:56.:13:58.

Andrew Neil and Gordon Brewer with the latest political news, interviews and debate including interviews with the deputy prime Minister, Nick Clegg, former chancellor Alistair Darling, Frances O'Grady of the TUC, and skills minister Matthew Hancock.


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