22/06/2014 Sunday Politics Scotland


22/06/2014

Andrew Neil and Gordon Brewer with the latest political news, interviews and debate. Rachel Reeves discusses what reforms Labour would make to the welfare department.


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Transcript


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Morning folks. Welcome to the Sunday Politics.

:00:33.:00:36.

Welfare reform is one of the government's most popular policies.

:00:37.:00:39.

So Labour says it would be even tougher than the Tories.

:00:40.:00:42.

We'll be asking the Shadow Work and Pensions Secretary if she's got

:00:43.:00:46.

Even Labour supporters worry that Ed Miliband hasn't got what it takes

:00:47.:00:53.

Labour grandees are increasingly vocal about their concerns.

:00:54.:00:58.

Over 50% of Labour voters think they'd do better with a new leader.

:00:59.:01:04.

And what of this leader, he's apparently toxic on the doorstep.

:01:05.:01:07.

The polls say Nick Clegg's more unpopular than Gordon Brown

:01:08.:01:10.

We'll be asking a former Lib Dem leader, what is to be done?

:01:11.:01:16.

Coming up on Sunday Politics Scotland.

:01:17.:01:18.

The latest analysis of setup costs for an independent state, we'll talk

:01:19.:01:22.

to Professor Dunleavy who says March 2016 may be unrealistic.

:01:23.:01:37.

promised an electric car revolution, why so little progress?

:01:38.:01:39.

Nick Watt, Helen Lewis and Janan Ganesh, the toxic tweeters

:01:40.:01:46.

First, the deepening crisis in Iraq, where Sunni Islamists are now

:01:47.:01:54.

largely in control of the Syrian-Iraq border, which means

:01:55.:01:56.

they can now re-supply their forces in Iraq from their Syrian bases.

:01:57.:02:03.

Rather than moving on Baghdad, they are for the moment consolidating

:02:04.:02:05.

their grip on the towns and cities they've already taken.

:02:06.:02:08.

They also seem to be in effective control of Iraq's

:02:09.:02:10.

biggest oil refinery, which supplies the capital.

:02:11.:02:14.

And there are reports they might now have taken the power

:02:15.:02:16.

Iraqi politicians are now admitting that ISIS,

:02:17.:02:23.

the name of the Sunni insurgents, is better trained, better equipped and

:02:24.:02:26.

far more battle-hardened than the US-trained Iraqi army fighting it.

:02:27.:02:32.

Which leaves the fate of Baghdad increasingly in the hands

:02:33.:02:34.

No good news coming out of there, Janan. No good news and no good

:02:35.:02:52.

options either. The West's best strategy is to decide how much

:02:53.:02:56.

support to give to the Iraqi government. The US is sending over

:02:57.:03:01.

about 275 military personnel. Do they go further and contemplate

:03:02.:03:04.

their support? General Petraeus argued against it as it might be

:03:05.:03:10.

seen as the US serving as the force of Shia Iraqis -- continue their

:03:11.:03:16.

support. Do we contemplate breaking up Iraq? It won't be easy. The Sunni

:03:17.:03:25.

and Shia Muslim populations don't live in clearly bordered areas, but

:03:26.:03:28.

in the longer term, do we deal with it in the same way we dealt with the

:03:29.:03:32.

break-up of the Ottoman empire over 100 years ago? In the short-term and

:03:33.:03:37.

long-term, completely confounding. Quite humiliating. If ISIS take

:03:38.:03:44.

Baghdad I can't think of a bigger ignominy for foreign policy since

:03:45.:03:50.

Suez. If Iraq is partitioned, it won't be up to us. It will be what

:03:51.:03:54.

is happening because of what is happening on the ground. Everything

:03:55.:04:00.

does point to partition, and that border, which ISIS control, between

:04:01.:04:06.

Syria and Iraq, that has been there since it was drawn during the First

:04:07.:04:11.

World War. That is gone as well. An astonishingly humbling situation the

:04:12.:04:14.

West, and you can see the Kurds in the North think this is a charge --

:04:15.:04:23.

chance for authority. They think this is the chance to get the

:04:24.:04:26.

autonomy they felt they deserved a long time. Janan is right. We can't

:04:27.:04:32.

do much in the long term, but we have to decide on the engagement.

:04:33.:04:36.

And the other people wish you'd be talking turkey, because if there is

:04:37.:04:39.

some blowback and the fighters come back, they are likely to come back

:04:40.:04:44.

from Turkey. Where is Iran in all of this? There were reports last week

:04:45.:04:49.

that the Revolutionary guard, the head of it, he was already in

:04:50.:04:52.

Baghdad with 67 advisers and there might have been some brigades that

:04:53.:04:57.

have gone there as well. Where are they? What has happened? I'm pretty

:04:58.:05:02.

sure the Prime Minister of Iraq is putting more faith in Iran than the

:05:03.:05:13.

White House and the British. I think they are running the show, in

:05:14.:05:17.

technical terms. John Kerry is flying into Cairo this morning, and

:05:18.:05:21.

what is his message? It is twofold. One is to Arab countries, do more to

:05:22.:05:25.

encourage an inclusive government in Iraq, mainly Sunni Muslims in the

:05:26.:05:30.

government, and the Arab Gulf states should stop funding insurgents in

:05:31.:05:35.

Iraq. You think, Iraq, it's potentially going to break up, so

:05:36.:05:41.

this sounds a bit late in the day and a bit weak. It gets

:05:42.:05:44.

fundamentally to the problem, what can we do? Niall Ferguson has a big

:05:45.:05:48.

piece in the Sunday Times asking if this is place where we cannot doing

:05:49.:05:52.

anything. He doesn't want to do anything. By the way, that is what

:05:53.:05:57.

most Americans think. That is what opinion polls are showing. You have

:05:58.:06:02.

George Osborne Michael Gold who would love to get involved but they

:06:03.:06:06.

cannot because of the vote in parliament on Syria lasted -- George

:06:07.:06:09.

Osborne and Michael Gove. This government does not have the stomach

:06:10.:06:14.

for military intervention. We will see how events unfold on the ground.

:06:15.:06:17.

All parties are agreed that Britain's 60-year old multi-billion

:06:18.:06:20.

The Tory side of the Coalition think their reforms are necessary

:06:21.:06:25.

and popular, though they haven't always gone to time or to plan.

:06:26.:06:28.

In the eight months she's had since she became Shadow Secretary of State

:06:29.:06:32.

for Work and Pensions, Rachel Reeves has talked the talk about getting

:06:33.:06:39.

people off benefits, into work and lowering the overall welfare bill.

:06:40.:06:42.

her first interview in the job she threatened "We would

:06:43.:06:44.

But Labour has opposed just about every change the Coalition

:06:45.:06:48.

has proposed to cut the cost and change the culture of welfare.

:06:49.:06:52.

Child benefit, housing benefit, the ?26,000 benefit cap -

:06:53.:06:55.

They've been lukewarm about the government's flagship Universal

:06:56.:07:01.

Credit scheme - which rolls six benefit payments into one - and

:07:02.:07:04.

And Labour has set out only two modest welfare cuts.

:07:05.:07:12.

This week, Labour said young people must have skills or be in training

:07:13.:07:15.

That will save ?65 million, says Labour, though the cost

:07:16.:07:20.

And cutting winter fuel payments for richer pensioners which will

:07:21.:07:26.

Not a lot in a total welfare bill of around ?200 billion.

:07:27.:07:34.

And with welfare cuts popular among even Labour voters, they will soon

:07:35.:07:36.

have to start spelling out exactly what Labour welfare reform means.

:07:37.:07:43.

Welcome. Good morning. Why do you want to be tougher than the Tories?

:07:44.:07:56.

We want to be tough in getting the welfare bill down. Under this

:07:57.:08:00.

government, the bill will be ?13 million more than the government set

:08:01.:08:03.

out in 2010 and I don't think that is acceptable. We should try to

:08:04.:08:08.

control the cost of Social Security. But the welfare bill under the next

:08:09.:08:12.

Labour government will fall? It will be smaller when you end the first

:08:13.:08:16.

parliament than when you started? We signed up to the capping welfare but

:08:17.:08:20.

that doesn't see social security costs ball, it sees them go up in

:08:21.:08:26.

line with with inflation or average earnings -- costs fall. So where

:08:27.:08:31.

flair will rise? We have signed up to the cap -- welfare will rise? We

:08:32.:08:36.

have signed up to the cap. We will get the costs under control and they

:08:37.:08:40.

haven't managed to achieve it. The government is spending ?13 billion

:08:41.:08:43.

more on Social Security and the reason they are doing it is because

:08:44.:08:49.

the minimum wage has not kept pace with the cost of living so people

:08:50.:08:52.

are reliant on tax credits. They are not building houses and people are

:08:53.:08:56.

relying on housing benefit. We have a record number of people on zero

:08:57.:09:02.

hours contracts. I'm still not clear if you will cut welfare if you get

:09:03.:09:06.

in power. Nobody is saying that the cost of welfare is going to fall.

:09:07.:09:12.

The welfare cap sees that happening gradually. That is a Tory cap. And

:09:13.:09:17.

you've accepted it. You're being the same as the Tories, not to. If they

:09:18.:09:25.

had a welfare cap, they would have breached it in every year of the

:09:26.:09:28.

parliament. Social Security will be higher than the government set out

:09:29.:09:33.

because they failed to control it. You read the polls, and the party

:09:34.:09:36.

does lots of its own polling, and you're scared of being seen as the

:09:37.:09:40.

welfare party. You don't really believe all of this anti-welfare

:09:41.:09:46.

stuff? We are the party of work, not welfare. The Labour Party was set up

:09:47.:09:49.

in the first place because we believe in the dignity of work and

:09:50.:09:51.

we believe that work should pay wages can afford to live on. I make

:09:52.:09:55.

no apologies for being the party of work. We are not the welfare party,

:09:56.:10:00.

we are the party of work. Even your confidential strategy document

:10:01.:10:05.

admits that voters don't trust you on immigration, the economy, this is

:10:06.:10:08.

your own people, and welfare. You are not trusted on it. The most

:10:09.:10:13.

recent poll showed Labour slightly ahead of the Conservative Party on

:10:14.:10:16.

Social Security, probably because they have seen the incompetence and

:10:17.:10:21.

chaos at the Department for Work and Pensions under Iain Duncan Smith.

:10:22.:10:25.

Your own internal document means that the voters don't trust you on

:10:26.:10:31.

welfare reform. That is why we have shown some of this tough things we

:10:32.:10:34.

will do like the announcement that Ed Miliband made earlier this week,

:10:35.:10:39.

that young people without basic qualifications won't be entitled to

:10:40.:10:43.

just sign on for benefits, they have to sign up for training in order to

:10:44.:10:46.

receive support. That is the right thing to do by that group of young

:10:47.:10:49.

people, because they need skills to progress. We will, once that. -- we

:10:50.:10:59.

will, onto that. You say you criticise the government that it had

:11:00.:11:04.

a cap and wouldn't have met it, but every money-saving welfare reform,

:11:05.:11:08.

you voted against it. How is that being tougher? The most recent bout

:11:09.:11:15.

was the cap on overall welfare expenditure, and we went through the

:11:16.:11:19.

lobbies and voted for the Tories. You voted against the benefit cap,

:11:20.:11:24.

welfare rating, you voted against, child benefit schemes, you voted

:11:25.:11:29.

against. You can't say we voted against everything when we voted

:11:30.:11:31.

with the Conservatives in the most recent bill with a cap on Social

:11:32.:11:35.

Security. It's just not correct to say. The last time we voted, we

:11:36.:11:43.

walked through the lobby with them. You voted on the principle of the

:11:44.:11:49.

cap. You voted on every step that would allow the cap to be met. Every

:11:50.:11:54.

single one. The most recent vote was not on the principle of the cap, it

:11:55.:11:58.

was on a cap of Social Security in the next Parliament and we signed up

:11:59.:12:01.

for that. It was Ed Miliband who called her that earlier on. Which

:12:02.:12:05.

welfare reform did you vote for? We voted for the cap. Other than that?

:12:06.:12:12.

We have supported universal credit. You voted against it in the third

:12:13.:12:17.

reading. We voted against some of the specifics. If you look at

:12:18.:12:22.

universal credit, they have had to write off nearly ?900 million of

:12:23.:12:27.

spending. I'm not on the rights and wrongs, I'm trying to work out what

:12:28.:12:31.

you voted for. Some of the things we are going to go further than the

:12:32.:12:34.

government with. For example, cutting benefits for young people

:12:35.:12:40.

who don't sign of the training. The government had introduced that. For

:12:41.:12:43.

example, saying that the richest pensioners should not get the winter

:12:44.:12:45.

fuel allowance, that is something the government haven't signed up.

:12:46.:12:49.

You would get that under Labour and this government haven't signed up

:12:50.:12:53.

for it. ?100 million on the winter fuel allowance and ?65 million on

:12:54.:12:59.

youth training. ?165 million. How big is the welfare budget? The cap

:13:00.:13:05.

would apply to ?120 billion. And you've saved 125 -- 165 million?

:13:06.:13:12.

Those are cuts that we said we would do in government. If you look at the

:13:13.:13:17.

real prize from the changes Ed Miliband announced in the youth

:13:18.:13:20.

allowance, it's not the short-term savings, it's the fact that each of

:13:21.:13:24.

these young people, who are currently on unemployment benefits

:13:25.:13:27.

without the skills we know they need to succeed in life, they will cost

:13:28.:13:33.

the taxpayer ?2000 per year. I will come onto that. You mentioned

:13:34.:13:37.

universal credit, which the government regards as the flagship

:13:38.:13:41.

reform. It's had lots of troubles with it and it merges six benefits

:13:42.:13:47.

into one. You voted against it in the third reading and given lukewarm

:13:48.:13:50.

support in the past. We have not said he would abandon it, but now

:13:51.:13:56.

you say you are for it. You are all over the place. We set up the rescue

:13:57.:14:00.

committee in autumn of last year because we have seen from the

:14:01.:14:03.

National Audit Office and the Public Accounts Committee, report after

:14:04.:14:08.

report showing that the project is massively overbudget and is not

:14:09.:14:13.

going to be delivered according to the government timetable. We set up

:14:14.:14:17.

the committee because we believe in the principle of universal credit

:14:18.:14:19.

and think it is the right thing to do. Can you tell us now if you will

:14:20.:14:24.

keep it or not? Because there is no transparency and we have no idea. We

:14:25.:14:30.

are awash with information. We are not. The government, in the most

:14:31.:14:36.

recent National audit Forest -- National Audit Office statement said

:14:37.:14:41.

it was a reset project. This is really important. This is a flagship

:14:42.:14:46.

government programme, and it's going to cost ?12.8 billion to deliver,

:14:47.:14:51.

and we don't know what sort of state it is in, so we have said that if we

:14:52.:14:55.

win at the next election, we will pause that for three months and

:14:56.:15:02.

calling... Will you stop the pilots? We don't know what status they will

:15:03.:15:08.

have. We would stop the build of the system for three months, calling the

:15:09.:15:11.

National Audit Office to do awards and all report. The government don't

:15:12.:15:17.

need to do this until the next general election, they could do it

:15:18.:15:20.

today. Stop throwing good money after bad and get a grip of this

:15:21.:15:24.

incredibly important programme. You said you don't know enough to a view

:15:25.:15:30.

now. So when you were invited to a job centre where universal credit is

:15:31.:15:33.

being rolled out to see how it was working, you refused to go. Why? We

:15:34.:15:39.

asked were a meeting with Iain Duncan Smith and he cancelled the

:15:40.:15:42.

meeting is three times. I'm talking about the visit when you were

:15:43.:15:45.

offered to go to a job centre and you refused. We had an appointment

:15:46.:15:50.

to meet Iain Duncan Smith at the Department for Work and Pensions and

:15:51.:15:52.

said he cancelled and was not available, but he wanted us to go to

:15:53.:15:57.

the job centre. We wanted to talk to him and his officials, which she

:15:58.:16:02.

did. Would it be more useful to go to the job centre and find out how

:16:03.:16:05.

it was working. He's going to tell you it's working fine.

:16:06.:16:19.

Advice Bureau in Hammersmith, they are working to help the people

:16:20.:16:26.

trying to claim universal credit. Iain Duncan Smith cancelled three

:16:27.:16:32.

meetings. That is another issue, I was asking about the job centre. It

:16:33.:16:37.

is not another issue because Iain Duncan Smith fogged us off. This

:16:38.:16:43.

week you said that jobless youngsters who won't take training

:16:44.:16:47.

will lose their welfare payments. How many young people are not in

:16:48.:16:56.

work training or education? There are 140,000 young people claiming

:16:57.:17:01.

benefits at the moment, but 850,000 young people who are not in work at

:17:02.:17:07.

the moment. This applies to around 100,000 young people. There are

:17:08.:17:15.

actually 975,000, 16-24 -year-olds, not in work, training or education.

:17:16.:17:22.

Your proposal only applies to 100,000 of them, why? This is

:17:23.:17:29.

applying to young people who are signing on for benefits rather than

:17:30.:17:35.

signing up for training. We want to make sure that all young people...

:17:36.:17:42.

Why only 100,000? They are the ones currently getting job-seeker's

:17:43.:17:46.

allowance. We are saying you can not just sign up to... Can I get you to

:17:47.:17:59.

respond to this, the number of people not in work, training or

:18:00.:18:05.

education fell last year by more than you are planning to help. Long

:18:06.:18:15.

turn -- long-term unemployment is an entrenched problem... This issue

:18:16.:18:23.

about an entrenched group of young people. Young people who haven't got

:18:24.:18:29.

skills and are not in training we know are much less likely to get a

:18:30.:18:33.

job so there are 140,018-24 -year-olds signing onto benefits at

:18:34.:18:40.

the moment. This is about trying to address that problem to make sure

:18:41.:18:44.

all young people have the skills they need to get a job. Your policy

:18:45.:18:50.

is to take away part of the dole unless young unemployed people agree

:18:51.:18:54.

to study for level three qualifications, the equivalent of an

:18:55.:19:00.

AS-level or an NVQ but 40% of these people have the literary skills of a

:19:01.:19:08.

nine-year-old. After all that failed education, how are you going to

:19:09.:19:13.

train them to a level standard? We are saying that anyone who doesn't

:19:14.:19:18.

have that a level or equivalent qualification will be required to go

:19:19.:19:23.

back to college. We are not saying that within a year they have to get

:19:24.:19:28.

up to that level but these are exactly the sorts of people... These

:19:29.:19:33.

people have been failed by your education system. These people are,

:19:34.:19:37.

for the last four years, have been educated under a Conservative

:19:38.:19:42.

government. 18 - 21-year-olds, most of them have their education under a

:19:43.:19:47.

Labour government during which 300,000 people left with no GCSEs

:19:48.:19:53.

whatsoever. I don't understand how training for one year can do what 11

:19:54.:19:59.

years in school did not. We are not saying that within one year

:20:00.:20:02.

everybody will get up to a level three qualifications, but if you are

:20:03.:20:06.

one of those people who enters the Labour market age 18 with the

:20:07.:20:10.

reading skills of a nine-year-old, they are the sorts of people that

:20:11.:20:18.

should not the left languishing. I went to college in Hackney if you

:20:19.:20:21.

should not the left languishing. I you are -- a few weeks ago and there

:20:22.:20:27.

was a dyslexic boy studying painting and decorating. In school they

:20:28.:20:31.

decided he was a troublemaker and that he didn't want to learn. He

:20:32.:20:37.

went back to college because he wanted to get the skills. He said

:20:38.:20:41.

that it wasn't until he went back to college that he could pick up a

:20:42.:20:46.

newspaper and read it, it made a huge difference but too many people

:20:47.:20:52.

are let down by the system. I am wondering how the training will make

:20:53.:20:56.

up for an education system that failed them but let's move on to

:20:57.:21:01.

your leader. Look at this graph of Ed Miliband's popularity. This is

:21:02.:21:07.

the net satisfaction with him, it is dreadful. The trend continues to

:21:08.:21:11.

climb since he became leader of the Labour Party, why? What you have

:21:12.:21:17.

seen is another 2300 Labour councillors since Ed Miliband became

:21:18.:21:21.

the leader of the Labour Party. You saw in the elections a month ago

:21:22.:21:29.

that... Why is the satisfaction rate falling? We can look at polls or

:21:30.:21:34.

actual election results and the fact that we have got another 2000 Labour

:21:35.:21:39.

councillors, more people voting Labour, the opinion polls today show

:21:40.:21:44.

that if there was a general election today we would have a majority of

:21:45.:21:48.

more than 40, he must be doing something right. Why do almost 50%

:21:49.:21:56.

of voters want to replace him as leader? Why do 50% and more think

:21:57.:22:03.

that he is not up to the job? The more people see Ed Miliband, the

:22:04.:22:09.

less impressed they are. The British people seem to like him less. The

:22:10.:22:14.

election strategy I suggest that follows from that is that you should

:22:15.:22:19.

keep Ed Miliband under wraps until the election. Let's look at actually

:22:20.:22:24.

what happens when people get a chance to vote, when they get that

:22:25.:22:29.

opportunity we have seen more Labour councillors, more Labour members of

:22:30.:22:36.

the European Parliament... Oppositions always get more. The

:22:37.:22:42.

opinion polls today, one of them shows Labour four points ahead. You

:22:43.:22:47.

have not done that well in local government elections or European

:22:48.:22:51.

elections. Why don't people like him? I think we have done incredibly

:22:52.:22:57.

well in elections. People must like a lot of the things Labour and Ed

:22:58.:23:02.

Miliband are doing because we are winning back support across the

:23:03.:23:06.

country. We won local councils in places like Hammersmith and Fulham,

:23:07.:23:11.

Crawley, Hastings, key places that Labour need to win back at the

:23:12.:23:17.

general election next year. Even you have said traditional Labour

:23:18.:23:22.

supporters are abandoning the party. That is what Ed Miliband has said as

:23:23.:23:27.

well. We have got this real concern about what has happened. If you look

:23:28.:23:33.

at the elections in May, 60% of people didn't even bother going to

:23:34.:23:38.

vote. That is a profound issue not just for Labour. You said

:23:39.:23:42.

traditional voters who perhaps at times we took for granted are now

:23:43.:23:47.

being offered an alternative. Why did you take them for granted? This

:23:48.:23:53.

is what Ed Miliband said. I am not saying anything Ed Miliband himself

:23:54.:23:59.

has not said. When he ran for the leadership he said that we took too

:24:00.:24:05.

many people for granted and we needed to give people positive

:24:06.:24:08.

reasons to vote Labour, he has been doing that. He has been there for

:24:09.:24:12.

four years and you are saying you still take them for granted. Why? I

:24:13.:24:16.

am saying that for too long we have taken them for granted. We are on

:24:17.:24:21.

track to win the general election next year and that will defy all the

:24:22.:24:31.

odds. You are going to win... Ed Miliband will win next year and make

:24:32.:24:33.

a great Prime Minister. Now to the Liberal Democrats, at the

:24:34.:24:41.

risk of intruding into private grief. The party is still smarting

:24:42.:24:45.

from dire results in the European and Local Elections. The only poll

:24:46.:24:48.

Nick Clegg has won in recent times is to be voted the most unpopular

:24:49.:24:52.

leader of a party in modern British history. No surprise there have been

:24:53.:24:57.

calls for him to go, though that still looks unlikely. Here's

:24:58.:24:58.

Eleanor. Liberal Democrats celebrating,

:24:59.:25:01.

something we haven't seen for a while. This victory back in 1998 led

:25:02.:25:07.

to a decade of power for the Lib Dems in Liverpool. What a contrast

:25:08.:25:12.

to the city's political landscape today. At its height the party had

:25:13.:25:18.

69 local councillors, now down to just three. The scale of the

:25:19.:25:22.

challenge facing Nick Clegg and the Lib Dems is growing. The party is

:25:23.:25:29.

rock bottom in the polls, consistently in single figures. It

:25:30.:25:32.

was wiped out in the European elections losing all but one of its

:25:33.:25:37.

12 MEPs and in the local elections it lost 42% of the seats that it was

:25:38.:25:44.

defending. But on Merseyside, Nick Clegg was putting on a brave face.

:25:45.:25:50.

We did badly in Liverpool, Manchester and London in particular,

:25:51.:25:55.

we did well in other places. But you are right, we did badly in some of

:25:56.:26:01.

those big cities and I have initiated a review, quite

:26:02.:26:05.

naturally, to understand what went wrong, what went right. As Lib Dems

:26:06.:26:11.

across the country get on with some serious soul-searching, there is an

:26:12.:26:15.

admission that his is the leader of the party who is failing to hit the

:26:16.:26:20.

right notes. Knocking on doors in Liverpool, I have to tell you that

:26:21.:26:25.

Nick Clegg is not a popular person. Some might use the word toxic and I

:26:26.:26:31.

find this very difficult because I know Nick very well and I see a

:26:32.:26:34.

principal person who passionately believes in what he is doing and he

:26:35.:26:40.

is a nice guy. As a result of his popularity, what has happened to the

:26:41.:26:51.

core vote? In parts of the country, we are down to just three

:26:52.:26:54.

councillors like Liverpool for example. You also lose the

:26:55.:26:59.

deliverers and fundraisers and the organisers and the members of course

:27:00.:27:03.

so all of that will have to be rebuilt. As they start fermenting

:27:04.:27:08.

process, local parties across the country and here in Liverpool have

:27:09.:27:13.

been voting on whether there should be a leadership contest. We had two

:27:14.:27:19.

choices to flush out and have a go at Nick Clegg or to positively

:27:20.:27:24.

decide we would sharpen up the campaign and get back on the

:27:25.:27:29.

streets, and by four to one ratio we decided to get back on the streets.

:27:30.:27:34.

We are bruised and battered but we are still here, the orange flag is

:27:35.:27:40.

still flying and one day it will fly over this building again, Liverpool

:27:41.:27:45.

town hall. But do people want the Lib Dems back in charge in this

:27:46.:27:50.

city? I certainly wouldn't vote for them. Their performance in

:27:51.:27:54.

Government and the way they have left their promises down, I could

:27:55.:27:59.

not vote for them again. I voted Lib Dem in the last election because of

:28:00.:28:05.

the university tuition fees and I would never vote for them again

:28:06.:28:11.

because they broke their promise. The Lib Dems are awful, broken

:28:12.:28:14.

promises and what have you. I wouldn't vote for them. This is the

:28:15.:28:18.

declaration of the results for the Northwest... Last month, as other

:28:19.:28:23.

party celebrated in the north-west, the Lib Dems here lost their only

:28:24.:28:28.

MEP, Chris Davies. Now there is concern the party doesn't know how

:28:29.:28:33.

to turn its fortunes around. We don't have an answer to that, if we

:28:34.:28:39.

did we would be grasping it with both hands. We will do our best to

:28:40.:28:47.

hold onto the places where we still have seats but as for the rest of

:28:48.:28:52.

the country where we have been hollowed out, we don't know how to

:28:53.:28:56.

start again until the next general election is out of the way. After

:28:57.:29:00.

their disastrous performance in the European elections, pressure is

:29:01.:29:03.

growing for the party to shift its stance. I think there has to be a

:29:04.:29:14.

lancing of the wound, there should in a referendum and the Liberal

:29:15.:29:21.

Democrats should be calling it. The rest of Europe once this because

:29:22.:29:26.

they are fed up with Britain being unable to make up its mind. The Lib

:29:27.:29:31.

Dems are now suffering the effects of being in Government. The party's

:29:32.:29:36.

problem, choosing the right course to regain political credibility.

:29:37.:29:43.

We can now speak to form a Lib Dems leader Ming Campbell. Welcome back

:29:44.:29:48.

to the Sunday Politics. Even your own activists say that Nick Clegg is

:29:49.:29:54.

toxic. How will that change between now and the election? When you have

:29:55.:29:58.

had disappointing results, but you have to do is to rebuild. You pick

:29:59.:30:04.

yourself up and start all over again, and the reason why the

:30:05.:30:08.

Liberal Democrats got 57, 56 seats in the House of Commons now is

:30:09.:30:13.

because we picked ourselves up, we took every opportunity and we have

:30:14.:30:15.

rebuilt from the bottom up. least popular leader in modern

:30:16.:30:27.

history and more unpopular than your mate Gordon Brown. You are running

:30:28.:30:32.

out of time. No one believes that being the leader of a modern

:30:33.:30:36.

political party in the UK is an easy job. Both Ed Miliband and David

:30:37.:30:40.

Cameron must have had cause to think, over breakfast this morning,

:30:41.:30:44.

when they saw the headlines in some of the Sunday papers. Of course it

:30:45.:30:47.

is a difficult job but it was pointed out a moment or two ago that

:30:48.:30:52.

Nick Clegg is a man of principle and enormous resilience if you consider

:30:53.:30:56.

what he had to put up with, and in my view, he is quite clearly the

:30:57.:30:59.

person best qualified to lead the party between now and the general

:31:00.:31:02.

election and through the election campaign, and beyond. So why don't

:31:03.:31:08.

people like him? We have had to take some pretty difficult decisions,

:31:09.:31:12.

and, of course, people didn't expect that. If you look back to the rather

:31:13.:31:19.

heady days of the rose garden behind ten Downing St, people thought it

:31:20.:31:22.

was all going to be sweetness and light, but the fact is, we didn't

:31:23.:31:26.

know then what we know now, about the extent of the economic crisis we

:31:27.:31:30.

win, and a lot of difficult decisions have had to be taken in

:31:31.:31:34.

order to restore economic stability. Look around you. You will see we are

:31:35.:31:39.

not there yet but we are a long way better off than in 2010. You are not

:31:40.:31:43.

getting the credit for it, the Tories are. We will be a little more

:31:44.:31:51.

assertive about taking the credit. For example, the fact that 23

:31:52.:31:55.

million people have had a tax cut of ?800 per year and we have taken 2

:31:56.:31:59.

million people out of paying tax altogether. Ming Campbell, your

:32:00.:32:02.

people say that on every programme like this. Because it is true. That

:32:03.:32:09.

might be the case, but you are at seven or 8% in the polls, and nobody

:32:10.:32:13.

is listening, or they don't believe it. Once

:32:14.:32:21.

is listening, or they don't believe doubt that what we have achieved

:32:22.:32:22.

will be much more easily recognised, and there is no doubt,

:32:23.:32:26.

for example, in some of the recent polls, like the Ashcroft Pole,

:32:27.:32:30.

something like 30% of those polled said that as a result at the next

:32:31.:32:38.

something like 30% of those polled general election, they would prepare

:32:39.:32:40.

their to be a coalition involving the Liberal Democrats. So there is

:32:41.:32:45.

no question that the whole notion of coalition is still very much a live

:32:46.:32:49.

one, and one which we have made work in the public interest. The problem

:32:50.:32:53.

is people don't think that. People see you trying to have your cake and

:32:54.:32:57.

eat it. On the one hand you want to get your share of the credit for the

:32:58.:33:00.

turnaround in the economy, on the other hand you can't stop yourself

:33:01.:33:04.

from distancing yourself from the Tories and things that you did not

:33:05.:33:08.

like happening. You are trying to face both ways at once. If you

:33:09.:33:14.

remember our fellow Scotsman famously said you cannot ride both

:33:15.:33:27.

remember our fellow Scotsman to the terms -- terms of the

:33:28.:33:27.

remember our fellow Scotsman coalition agreement, which is what

:33:28.:33:29.

we signed up to in 2010. In addition, in furtherance of that

:33:30.:33:33.

agreement, we have created things like the pupil premium and the

:33:34.:33:37.

others I mentioned and you were rather dismissive. I'm not

:33:38.:33:40.

dismissive, I'm just saying they don't make a difference to what

:33:41.:33:44.

people think of you. We will do everything in our power to change

:33:45.:33:50.

that between now and May 2015. The interesting thing is, going back to

:33:51.:33:55.

the Ashcroft result, it demonstrated clearly that in constituencies where

:33:56.:34:01.

we have MPs and we are well dug in, we are doing everything that the

:34:02.:34:04.

public expects of us, and we are doing very well indeed. You aren't

:34:05.:34:09.

sure fellow Lib Dems have been saying this for you -- you and your

:34:10.:34:15.

fellow Liberal Dems have been saying this for a year or 18 months, and

:34:16.:34:18.

since then you have lost all of your MEPs apart from one, you lost your

:34:19.:34:22.

deposit in a by-election, you lost 310 councillor, including everyone

:34:23.:34:28.

in Manchester or Islington. Mr Clegg leading you into the next general

:34:29.:34:33.

election will be the equivalent of the charge of the light Brigade. I

:34:34.:34:39.

doubt that very much. The implication behind that lit you

:34:40.:34:43.

rehearsed is that we should pack our tents in the night and steal away.

:34:44.:34:48.

-- that litany. And if you heard in that piece that preceded the

:34:49.:34:51.

discussion, people were saying, look we have to start from the bottom and

:34:52.:34:55.

have to rebuild. That is exactly what we will do. Nine months is a

:34:56.:35:09.

period of gestation. As you well know. I wouldn't dismiss it quite so

:35:10.:35:15.

easily as that. I'm not here to say we had a wonderful result or

:35:16.:35:18.

anything like it, but what I do say is that the party is determined to

:35:19.:35:23.

turn it round, and that Nick Clegg is the person best qualified to do

:35:24.:35:29.

it. Should your party adopt a referendum about in or out on

:35:30.:35:30.

Europe? No, we should stuck to the task, not is what is

:35:31.:36:08.

going to happen in May 2015. Thank you for joining us. Now, let's say

:36:09.:36:10.

goodbye to the viewers in Scotland. Good morning and welcome to

:36:11.:36:17.

Sunday Politics Scotland. The cost of independence,

:36:18.:36:19.

the latest analysis puts the Ed Miliband has unveiled his

:36:20.:36:25.

proposals for benefit reform, we'll ask the Shadow Scottish Secretary

:36:26.:36:31.

how that will play on the doorsteps. 700 years on next weekend,

:36:32.:36:36.

Robert the Bruce will ride again How successful will this event be

:36:37.:36:39.

as Armed Forces Day takes place A row broke out at Holyrood this

:36:40.:36:45.

week about whether the Scottish Government were working on set up

:36:46.:36:55.

costs in the event of a yes vote. Last month it insisted that civil

:36:56.:36:58.

servants had not even begun to work on the calculations

:36:59.:37:03.

because much would depend But on Friday it emerged that the

:37:04.:37:05.

government had advertised a number of business critical posts and

:37:06.:37:09.

were fast tracking applications. The Scottish Government claims it's

:37:10.:37:17.

ensuring The Liberal Democrat leader Willie

:37:18.:37:18.

Rennie and Conservative leader Ruth Davidson tabled questions to

:37:19.:37:23.

the First Minister on the subject last Thursday and asked why those

:37:24.:37:28.

figures wouldn't be available to the We know from the finance secretary

:37:29.:37:43.

in 2012 that he ordered work to build a competency overview of the

:37:44.:37:45.

institutions, gusts and staff numbers required in the event of

:37:46.:37:51.

independence. Last year, the deputy first minister confirmed that work

:37:52.:37:54.

was underway, telling a Commons committee, and I quote, we are doing

:37:55.:37:59.

substantial work on this just now. Suffice to say, it covers not just

:38:00.:38:03.

running costs but the issues around setup. But then, last month, the

:38:04.:38:08.

first Minister's official spokesman said, there was no overview, no

:38:09.:38:15.

document, just, and I quote again, e-mail and jottings. And then this

:38:16.:38:20.

morning, a week after the chief economic adviser said he had done no

:38:21.:38:24.

work, we read reports that the government is rushing out figures to

:38:25.:38:31.

paper over the cracks. They say the work is substantial, then they say

:38:32.:38:34.

it is not. They say it will be published before the referendum but

:38:35.:38:38.

then they say they will not. The people of Scotland have to know,

:38:39.:38:40.

what is going on? The start-up costs of setting up

:38:41.:38:42.

independent institutions have been In May the Treasury claimed they

:38:43.:38:45.

would amount to ?2.7 billion. It cited a study carried out

:38:46.:38:50.

by Professor Patrick Dunleavy He, however, said the figure badly

:38:51.:38:53.

misrepresented his research and that any contribution to the public

:38:54.:39:00.

debate needed to be accurate. In turn, the Scottish government

:39:01.:39:02.

quoted a figure of ?250 million, Today Professor Dunleavy has

:39:03.:39:07.

published a new analysis, It suggests that there would be

:39:08.:39:13.

immediate setup costs of up to ?200 million to create new

:39:14.:39:18.

administrative structures that Several hundred million pounds would

:39:19.:39:22.

need to be spent on new IT systems Costs would increase

:39:23.:39:31.

if negotiations were hostile. And it notes that agreeing

:39:32.:39:37.

the transition to independence Earlier this morning I spoke to

:39:38.:39:41.

the professor and I began by asking him what the total cost of

:39:42.:39:49.

setting up a new country might be. I think we need to keep clear what

:39:50.:40:01.

is a setup cost, and what is some other kind of cost. For example, the

:40:02.:40:08.

tax and benefit system, those contracts, they are continuously

:40:09.:40:15.

coming up for renewal in the UK. So over the next several years, a large

:40:16.:40:20.

portion of all of the UK's major IT contracts will have to be

:40:21.:40:24.

re-elected, and that will cost a lot of money. I don't think we can count

:40:25.:40:30.

Scotland setting up its own tax and benefit system as being just the

:40:31.:40:35.

setup costs, it is part of the investment cost. In that

:40:36.:40:39.

transitional period, would it be possible for an independent Scotland

:40:40.:40:44.

to have a different taxation, for example, or a different benefit

:40:45.:40:48.

system from the rest of the UK? Until the new systems are set up

:40:49.:40:52.

which you seem to be suggesting would be about 2020, 2021? Benefits,

:40:53.:40:59.

according to the Scottish government timetable, would be domesticated in

:41:00.:41:04.

2018, and personal income tax in 2020, and other bits of taxation

:41:05.:41:09.

would take longer. What about something like corporation tax? It

:41:10.:41:12.

is one of their flagship policies, they want to cut that. When could

:41:13.:41:17.

that be done realistically? You have got to choose between making wasn't

:41:18.:41:21.

-- policy choices and changing whole systems. It is possible, it might be

:41:22.:41:26.

difficult and it could be systems. It is possible, it might be

:41:27.:41:30.

difficult and it could expensive to change policy. So to say, we will

:41:31.:41:35.

keep the same corporate tax policy, but we will levy a different level

:41:36.:41:43.

on Scotland. But when you get to benefits, it is quite complicated to

:41:44.:41:47.

have policy variation between the UK and Scotland. The Scottish

:41:48.:41:52.

government has said a couple of things they would not proceed with.

:41:53.:41:56.

But essentially, that is why you need to domesticated your IT,

:41:57.:42:04.

because modern policy relies on IT systems. The existing UK systems are

:42:05.:42:09.

very big, complex legacy systems, very costly to operate. You say

:42:10.:42:14.

there are grounds for ordering, and I am quoting you, the swift

:42:15.:42:18.

transition in busy from a yes vote to an independent Scotland by March

:42:19.:42:23.

2016 is unrealistic or unlikely to happen. Why you say that? That is a

:42:24.:42:31.

footnote! You know, I think when anybody puts forward a timetable,

:42:32.:42:37.

people query the timetable. To go from September this year to March

:42:38.:42:46.

2016 would be quite minding. So -- quite demanding. So you think it

:42:47.:42:52.

would have to be put back a bit? I think Scotland would have to

:42:53.:42:55.

negotiate independence with the rest of the UK. In the process of that,

:42:56.:43:01.

some issues that come up, but it might well be that if Scotland has

:43:02.:43:09.

voted yes, then everybody accepts that this is a top political

:43:10.:43:15.

priority and this timetable will stick after all. We are saying,

:43:16.:43:20.

there is an issue around it as there is about almost every aspect of the

:43:21.:43:27.

transition. You had a meeting with the Scottish government this week,

:43:28.:43:31.

are you officially involved in them trying to do work with setup costs?

:43:32.:43:34.

What is your understanding what their plans are of this issue? I had

:43:35.:43:43.

a whole set of meetings with people in Scotland including and up to the

:43:44.:43:46.

first minister not this week but last week. What is your involvement

:43:47.:43:52.

from now? I don't have any involvement at this point with the

:43:53.:43:58.

Scottish government. Is your understanding the Scottish

:43:59.:43:59.

government itself is now doing work on this? I think that there has been

:44:00.:44:07.

a lot of, kind of, chasing bogeyman here. The idea that the Scottish

:44:08.:44:12.

government has a secret dossier or a set of information that they are

:44:13.:44:17.

hiding has been suggested in the Scottish Parliament, and hinted at

:44:18.:44:24.

by Danny Alexander. This is ironic really, because the person who knows

:44:25.:44:28.

a lot more about what the transition costs for Scotland would be if David

:44:29.:44:33.

Cameron. The big uncertainty is what the UK would do in negotiation.

:44:34.:44:38.

Listening to that was the shadow Scottish Secretary Margaret Curran

:44:39.:44:43.

who joins me now. Whatever we make of the Professor's latest estimates,

:44:44.:44:48.

the basic point here is that the UK government document that said the

:44:49.:44:53.

setup cost of independent Scotland would be ?2.7 billion was just

:44:54.:44:58.

nonsense. You know, I think it is interesting, and the viewers

:44:59.:45:00.

watching this and people throughout Scotland will be questioning now why

:45:01.:45:04.

they are having to look at the Sunday Post this morning to find out

:45:05.:45:07.

the latest stage of where we have got to this. I will come onto what

:45:08.:45:11.

you think the Scottish government will do in the moment. But the basic

:45:12.:45:17.

point is, in outing to the accepted that the figures put out by the

:45:18.:45:24.

British come and work rubbish. -- government were rubbish. Today, we

:45:25.:45:31.

have got the 200 million costs, but they have gone on to say that there

:45:32.:45:35.

are substantial other costs. He said ?700 million. He did not dismiss the

:45:36.:45:45.

?900 million which is setting up the IT systems. That does not get you to

:45:46.:45:53.

?2.7 billion. But the ?900 million for the tax and benefit systems

:45:54.:45:58.

alone, you are in that territory. We are looking at millions of pounds in

:45:59.:46:01.

terms of setting up an independent state and that is just tax and

:46:02.:46:08.

welfare. We know there are other issues, the Ford talks about

:46:09.:46:12.

convocations around EU and NATO and suchlike. It is not unreasonable for

:46:13.:46:19.

us to say, here we are 90 days away from it, the government have been

:46:20.:46:24.

planning, but we do not even know who the staff were working on it.

:46:25.:46:29.

What I do not quite understand is when the Conservative Liberal

:46:30.:46:34.

Democrat coalition puts out figures which are widely accepted now to be

:46:35.:46:38.

inaccurate, to put it mildly, which are said by Professor Dunleavy

:46:39.:46:47.

himself to mislead his -- misrepresent his research, why you

:46:48.:46:50.

want to defend these figures. I just rang to say what people are trying

:46:51.:46:54.

to say out there, what are the reasonable figures which will be

:46:55.:46:59.

involved in setting up an independent Scotland. What do people

:47:00.:47:04.

want to see the Scottish government doing, then? I think we need a

:47:05.:47:11.

degree of transparency, we have had John Swinney and Nicola Sturgeon

:47:12.:47:14.

saying, we would get some sense, they have not fulfilled that. We

:47:15.:47:17.

have now got the first Minister saying we need to set up these civil

:47:18.:47:22.

service jobs looking at it. But another point... Your demand is

:47:23.:47:27.

what, they should publish them figures? Certainly let us know what

:47:28.:47:32.

is going on and who is involved. Professor Dunleavy also said you

:47:33.:47:36.

should never associate transition costs with assets, they should be

:47:37.:47:40.

divided from each other. That is often the stock answer we get from

:47:41.:47:45.

the first Minister, when we just get the general response. We need

:47:46.:47:51.

clarity about... You would expect and demand that the Scottish

:47:52.:47:55.

government publish some figures? Yes, what figures they have they

:47:56.:48:00.

should publish. They could -- they should take a step-by-step through

:48:01.:48:04.

the work they have done and be transparent and public about this.

:48:05.:48:12.

Including about spending. This week, Ed Miliband outlined his proposals

:48:13.:48:19.

for young people. We have been talking to some young people. I

:48:20.:48:26.

think it is difficult, he is busy trying to appeal to swing voters who

:48:27.:48:31.

might have voted Labour before, but he has got to make cuts somewhere.

:48:32.:48:35.

It could do well for him because older people tend to vote for. As a

:48:36.:48:40.

young person, I know people who are on jobseeker's allowance and I know

:48:41.:48:44.

can be difficult. It is a good idea, it will encourage people to go into

:48:45.:48:48.

training rather than sitting around not really doing anything. Young

:48:49.:48:51.

people should be encouraged to work or do training. I am not sure about

:48:52.:48:59.

whether it should be based upon how much money your parents have.

:49:00.:49:04.

Especially if you're looking to go into work, looking to support

:49:05.:49:11.

yourself more. I welcome the proposals around training. I think

:49:12.:49:15.

it is important government give support to young people when they

:49:16.:49:19.

are out of work to get into the work place. I do not like it means

:49:20.:49:24.

testing the benefit, you would not deliver those over 25 so I do not

:49:25.:49:27.

see why you would do it for those under. Once you are 16 and 18, you

:49:28.:49:34.

are a full system with full rights. When the IPPR year or so ago

:49:35.:49:41.

proposed a similar learning or dining scheme, Rachel Reid, your

:49:42.:49:48.

front bench, rejected it, she rejected it, saying, we should not

:49:49.:49:56.

be blaming young people for Tory failure. What has changed? The IPPR

:49:57.:50:04.

was much more wide ranging in its report, it related to young people

:50:05.:50:11.

up to 25. And yours applies only to 21? So if you talk about people from

:50:12.:50:16.

18 to 25, we are blaming young people for Tory failure, but when we

:50:17.:50:20.

talk about 18 to 21, we are not blaming? What the proposal that Ed

:50:21.:50:28.

Miliband and Rachel Reid is very -- has put

:50:29.:50:37.

We know young people have a difficulty with new Morrissey and

:50:38.:50:46.

literacy. But what you are saying is if you are in this particular group

:50:47.:50:52.

and you do not agree to go into further training or education you

:50:53.:50:58.

will not get any benefit. -- new Morrissey and literacy. You will get

:50:59.:51:08.

youth allowance if you go into training. And if you do not you will

:51:09.:51:20.

get nothing? We know what happened to people who do not go into

:51:21.:51:25.

training, they are condemned to a life on benefits without

:51:26.:51:32.

opportunity. Often young people who did not do well at school want a

:51:33.:51:40.

second chance. Encouraging people to go into education everyone would

:51:41.:51:44.

agree is a good thing but you are effectively saying to parents who

:51:45.:51:49.

have problem youngsters who refused to do this that they are going to

:51:50.:51:53.

have to finance those young people because the well-known longer be

:51:54.:51:58.

entitled under Labour to any benefits at all. I think you will

:51:59.:52:02.

find that goes against the stream of argument. Some of these young people

:52:03.:52:09.

who do want to go to college do not get the financial support to go to

:52:10.:52:16.

college. We know there is a problem. Young people who do want to go to

:52:17.:52:22.

college, the way the current benefits system works will not do

:52:23.:52:26.

that. The current system would rather have young people in training

:52:27.:52:32.

than on benefits. I think most parents would encourage their young

:52:33.:52:35.

people to go to college and get financial support. In a few minutes

:52:36.:52:43.

we'll be asking Cabinet secretary Fergus Ewing for his response. But

:52:44.:52:45.

first, Scotland's most famous battlefield will echo to the cries

:52:46.:52:49.

of war next weekend, and the shouts of burger stall holders and t-shirt

:52:50.:52:52.

sellers, as thousands attend Bannockburn Live. It's become a bit

:52:53.:52:56.

of a political football as MSPs speak about concerns over ticket

:52:57.:52:59.

sales and questions arise over the surprising decision to hold Armed

:53:00.:53:03.

Forces Day in a field next door on the same day. Others ask why so much

:53:04.:53:09.

is being spent on one event when other areas of ancestral tourism

:53:10.:53:12.

could do with funding. Here's Andrew Kerr. The stage is being set for

:53:13.:53:26.

what is being built as two spectacular days of medieval

:53:27.:53:31.

re-enactments. Music, food and fashion as organisers prepare to go

:53:32.:53:37.

into battle, they will be hoping for a day like today. Bannockburn

:53:38.:53:44.

secured the way for Scotland to go into independence. The politics of

:53:45.:53:49.

the battlefield have spilled into the present day. Over the past few

:53:50.:53:54.

months MSPs have been ailing concerns over what they saw as low

:53:55.:54:01.

ticket sales, poor marketing and a lack of accountability. The National

:54:02.:54:03.

Trust for Scotland handed over at the event to visit Scotland when

:54:04.:54:10.

they held -- heard through the media that Armed Forces Day would be held

:54:11.:54:16.

on the same day by Stirling Council. Progress has been made. With

:54:17.:54:21.

taxpayers money at stake the local MSP guaranteed success. Visit

:54:22.:54:30.

Scotland have a good solid experience in this area, I am sure

:54:31.:54:37.

it will be successful. Capacity was for 45,000 people to attend over

:54:38.:54:42.

three days. It is now a two-day event with a target of 15,000.

:54:43.:54:49.

10,000 tickets have been sold, two thirds full. ?392,000 of taxpayers

:54:50.:54:57.

money has been ploughed into it. Perhaps the concerns have been

:54:58.:55:01.

expressed because of the apparently unsuccessful gathering in 2009.

:55:02.:55:07.

Taxpayers had to fit the overall bill and some were not paid. We are

:55:08.:55:15.

confident the event itself will break even through ticket revenue

:55:16.:55:19.

and other commercial revenue streams. I do not think there is any

:55:20.:55:26.

worry at all for the taxpayer. All the suppliers are committed to being

:55:27.:55:29.

paid and I think at the end of the day it will be a great event and we

:55:30.:55:34.

will generate sufficient revenue to cover the costs. There is always a

:55:35.:55:43.

risk with any quick sector spend it but we have advanced ticket sales of

:55:44.:55:52.

between two thirds and three quarters. There is a whole surface

:55:53.:55:59.

of things to do at the festival from music to the arts, retail to food.

:56:00.:56:04.

It will showcase the best of Scottish produce, creativity and in

:56:05.:56:11.

a destination that tourists need to discover. With a large amount of

:56:12.:56:19.

public money going into one event there is also a call to spread the

:56:20.:56:25.

largess around to other related areas which could also benefit. It

:56:26.:56:34.

is interesting, it is an area of focus for the tourism industry but I

:56:35.:56:38.

also think it would be good if some smaller centres and museums could

:56:39.:56:43.

get some funding because they are a crucial part of the tourist speedy

:56:44.:56:54.

and is. -- tourist experience. Many Scots and English well next weekend

:56:55.:56:58.

stand on the battlefield where their ancestors fought but when the battle

:56:59.:57:03.

cries died down the could still be some skirmishes. I am joined now by

:57:04.:57:14.

the Cabinet Minister for energy, enterprise and tourism. How many

:57:15.:57:18.

tickets have you sold? Around 10,000. We are very confident we

:57:19.:57:27.

will reach the target of 15,000 for what will be a terrific feast of

:57:28.:57:36.

music, history and food on the 28th and 29th of September. That weekend

:57:37.:57:42.

we also have white vest and Armed Forces Day. It will be a great

:57:43.:57:48.

weekend for Stirling. 50,000 is the target for Bannockburn. I think they

:57:49.:57:54.

are expecting something like 50,000 to turn up for Armed Forces Day. The

:57:55.:58:01.

symbolism and iconography of that is not terrific for you as a supporter

:58:02.:58:08.

of the yes campaign? I am hoping people will have a great weekend

:58:09.:58:17.

out. Quite by giving 50,000 will turn out to support Armed Forces Day

:58:18.:58:20.

and only 15,000 to support Bannockburn? Your viewers can go to

:58:21.:58:31.

Bannockburn live .com for the details of what will be an

:58:32.:58:36.

absolutely tremendous event with singers, re-enactments of the

:58:37.:58:44.

battle... You are turning into a used car salesman in front of my

:58:45.:58:47.

eyes. How about cancelling the question. There will be a

:58:48.:58:55.

magnificent chance for children to hear Rory tellers. People can look

:58:56.:59:05.

up what is on. -- storytellers. To answer your question, of course we

:59:06.:59:09.

remember the Battle of Bannockburn which led to the growth of

:59:10.:59:12.

independence which gained freedom for Scotland and also we remember

:59:13.:59:17.

the sacrifice of the Armed Forces and the First World War who gave so

:59:18.:59:22.

much to preserve freedom. I think we should remember and preserve all of

:59:23.:59:28.

our history. You might be concerned with profits rising doom but I think

:59:29.:59:33.

we can make this weekend a great weekend for all abuzz, not

:59:34.:59:40.

necessarily for politics but for family fun. One of the main reasons

:59:41.:59:45.

they will be 50,000 that Armed Forces Day is because it is free.

:59:46.:59:51.

Why not make an burn free? It is only costing three quarters of ?1

:59:52.:59:55.

million, you could easily justify that as public spending, why not say

:59:56.:00:02.

now, just turn up, it is free and we will get everyone who has read

:00:03.:00:08.

already their money back? I think the way you asked the question is

:00:09.:00:12.

why you are doing your job and I am doing mine. We have planned an

:00:13.:00:17.

excellent weekend with tickets that are competitively priced. Dublin

:00:18.:00:22.

Council decided to seek and hold Armed Forces Day, we are

:00:23.:00:27.

contributing to that, it did not cost free. We are contributing

:00:28.:00:31.

?80,000 and we have worked closely with them to make sure extra train

:00:32.:00:35.

carriages are laid on so people can get there. Why not make it free?

:00:36.:00:46.

While some commentators wish to make political capital out of this for

:00:47.:00:50.

some reason we are determined to make it a success. There are

:00:51.:00:53.

substantial costs than running these events and it is appropriate people

:00:54.:01:01.

be towards enjoying it. But Armed Forces Day is free. That is to make

:01:02.:01:08.

sure it is a success. Why doesn't the Scottish Government put money

:01:09.:01:12.

into Bannockburn and make that free? We are doing what we have planned to

:01:13.:01:20.

do. We put money into homecoming events to make sure they are

:01:21.:01:25.

successful. On one day we are working with planning chiefs in

:01:26.:01:30.

Scotland and have a very special choir and the on Monday for

:01:31.:01:39.

Bannockburn. -- planned day. Let us move on. ?200 million plus several

:01:40.:01:53.

hundred million pounds over a period of years for setting up tax and

:01:54.:01:58.

benefits, are we now revising the Scottish Government estimates? Is it

:01:59.:02:03.

now ?200 million plus several billion more? The Scottish

:02:04.:02:10.

Government has always said there would be an element of setup costs.

:02:11.:02:21.

We set a reasonable figure would be set up. The UK estimate which Danny

:02:22.:02:32.

Alexander brought forward of a 12 times greater amount has been

:02:33.:02:37.

completely discredited. What is completely absent from this debate

:02:38.:02:42.

is the Scottish Government doing the calculations itself and bringing

:02:43.:02:47.

them in a document to put in front of the Scottish people before the

:02:48.:02:52.

vote in the referendum. They could then say this is what we think, is

:02:53.:02:58.

that going to happen? Firstly, that is not quite fair to ours. We have

:02:59.:03:05.

said they will be an element of cost. People want us to be candid

:03:06.:03:10.

about this. We have said they will be costs of the reasonable order. We

:03:11.:03:17.

were ready to negotiate and remain ready to sit around the table and

:03:18.:03:22.

have reasonable discussions as I do in my daily job with UK ministers.

:03:23.:03:30.

What is your best estimate? Tell Makro the UK Government refused to

:03:31.:03:34.

sit down around the table and negotiate these points which is why

:03:35.:03:40.

it is not possible. You have produced documents over the past few

:03:41.:03:43.

weeks which talk about what might happen if Rod activity in the

:03:44.:03:49.

Scottish economy was increased and what then hypothetically that would

:03:50.:03:54.

mean in terms of the size of the Scottish economy. You have put

:03:55.:03:58.

figures on them and publish the document saying vote for

:03:59.:04:01.

independence and it will be brilliant. You can do that which is

:04:02.:04:05.

entirely speculative yet you cannot give the best assessment of what the

:04:06.:04:11.

start-up costs of independence would be? We have put forward the fact we

:04:12.:04:18.

believe the initial start-up costs would be of the order of 200

:04:19.:04:24.

million. That is just something you picked up from Professor Dunne levy.

:04:25.:04:30.

The UK figures were 12 times that which were completely discredited

:04:31.:04:34.

and probably the biggest exaggeration in the wall of the

:04:35.:04:39.

referendum campaign. You need to come up with some of your own.

:04:40.:04:42.

People cannot understand why you find this so difficult. We have put

:04:43.:04:50.

forward some detail in our white paper and more details in response

:04:51.:04:54.

to the debate as we heard the first minister in the Scottish Parliament.

:04:55.:04:57.

Professor You're watching

:04:58.:05:01.

Sunday Politics Scotland. Let's cross now

:05:02.:05:03.

for the news with Andrew Kerr. A new academic study puts

:05:04.:05:07.

the immediate start-up costs of an independent Scotland

:05:08.:05:10.

at ?200 million. Professor Patrick Dunleavy,

:05:11.:05:15.

of the London School of Economics, said the costs in the event

:05:16.:05:18.

of a yes vote would arise from the need to set up operations

:05:19.:05:21.

like tax and benefits services. SNP ministers said

:05:22.:05:25.

the estimate has blown out of the water the Treasury's start-up

:05:26.:05:28.

figure of more than ?2.5 billion. Better Together said the Scottish

:05:29.:05:33.

government must now set out A woman's been rescued

:05:34.:05:35.

after swimming in the sea off one The incident happened after

:05:36.:05:41.

a party on the island of Egilsay. Two kayakers who went to her

:05:42.:05:47.

aid also got into difficulty. The woman was taken to hospital

:05:48.:05:51.

in Kirkwall, One of the oldest surviving copies

:05:52.:05:53.

of a poem detailing the Battle of Bannockburn has been restored

:05:54.:06:00.

in time for the 700th anniversary. The 1400 line epic poem was written

:06:01.:06:04.

by the Archdeacon of Aberdeen It covers the Scottish wars of

:06:05.:06:09.

independence under Robert the Bruce. A 15th-century copy has been

:06:10.:06:16.

restored by a team at It's day nine of the Queen's Baton

:06:17.:06:18.

relay for the Commonwealth Games and it's making

:06:19.:06:25.

its way through South Lanarkshire. The relay started in Lanark

:06:26.:06:27.

and will carry on throughout the area before eventually finishing

:06:28.:06:30.

the day in Hamilton. A man was arrested in Kilmarnock

:06:31.:06:34.

last night after he attempted to Good afternoon. A fairly clear-cut

:06:35.:06:53.

North-South split for the afternoon, with northern Scotland cloudy,

:06:54.:06:56.

patchy rain and drizzle at times, and Shetland look like predominantly

:06:57.:07:04.

dry. From the lowlands southward, mostly dry. A bright afternoon as

:07:05.:07:09.

well. Temperatures responding to the heat. Up to 20 Celsius across

:07:10.:07:12.

southern Scotland, cooler across the North. It will remain rather

:07:13.:07:14.

cloudy. Now it is time for the look at what

:07:15.:07:30.

is coming up in the week ahead. Tom Gordon from the Sunday Herald

:07:31.:07:33.

and the writer Katie Grant away with me now. -- are here. Let's start

:07:34.:07:40.

with this start-up costs it fascinating or does it put you to

:07:41.:07:46.

sleep? It slightly puts me to sleep but it makes me disbelief both

:07:47.:07:51.

sides. All I can think of is any estimate is always too low. Look at

:07:52.:07:54.

the Holyrood Parliament building, we have so many examples of things

:07:55.:07:59.

saying, it's going to cost this amount, and it cost 67 times that.

:08:00.:08:07.

-- six or seven. Everybody knows 200 million is not going to be of the

:08:08.:08:11.

real cost. Most people are hazy about the figures, but they know it

:08:12.:08:14.

is going to be expensive, and the people who are going to clean up our

:08:15.:08:19.

administrators, lawyers, tax collectors. That is the message that

:08:20.:08:26.

comes through. The British government's paper on this rather

:08:27.:08:30.

blew up in their face, because the Professor Dunleavy's report. Yes,

:08:31.:08:42.

they said 200 billion -- 2 billion, and he blew that up. It has taken a

:08:43.:08:47.

Sunday newspaper, and full crest -- credit to them, to commission a

:08:48.:08:51.

report. The Scottish gunmen should have done that. -- the Scottish

:08:52.:08:59.

government. Obviously, they are now going to be under pressure to give

:09:00.:09:08.

something to people. Yes, Professor Dunleavy turned this paper around

:09:09.:09:12.

very quickly. It could be very heavily caveat heavy, but it is

:09:13.:09:20.

clear, saying what the ups and downs are, the time frames for phasing in

:09:21.:09:25.

these taxes etc, he has done a dry quickly, and why has the Scottish

:09:26.:09:29.

government not done it? This is independence 101. Now don't get

:09:30.:09:35.

overexcited about this, but apparently, Better Together, they

:09:36.:09:39.

are producing leaflets and they are going to send them out to every

:09:40.:09:42.

household in Scotland. You could be on tenterhooks. I am waiting for

:09:43.:09:47.

mine to drop through the door! I can't wait! I wonder if anyone has

:09:48.:09:53.

done a cost benefit analysis on leafleting. Most people will stick

:09:54.:09:55.

them on the bend. I suppose they feel they have got to do them

:09:56.:09:59.

because they -- stick them in the bin. Because campaigns have always

:10:00.:10:03.

done this. I don't think they do make much difference. Perhaps it

:10:04.:10:09.

would make a difference if they did not do it. It is going to cost some

:10:10.:10:13.

enormous sum of money to send them out. Do you think they do any good?

:10:14.:10:19.

I might get a dog to sit next to the letterbox! I don't know how much

:10:20.:10:27.

impact this has. Every time I open a newspaper, a leaflet for that

:10:28.:10:30.

debate. People see this stuff all the time. I do not think eight F

:10:31.:10:38.

will make a big difference. -- a letterbox drop. What you think about

:10:39.:10:45.

this latest thing that David Cameron should debate with Alex Salmond?

:10:46.:10:52.

Alex Salmond said he would debate with Alistair Cameron but only if

:10:53.:10:57.

David Cameron refuses. The damage from David Cameron not doing it is

:10:58.:11:01.

far less of the damage that would be doing if he does do it. All it would

:11:02.:11:05.

say is, Tory toff with David Cameron's accent, which is just like

:11:06.:11:11.

mine, Tory toff against plucky Alex Salmond. I am curious that you say

:11:12.:11:18.

that, you are broadly right of centre in your beliefs, there is an

:11:19.:11:21.

argument from your point of view to say, it is wrong to say that David

:11:22.:11:26.

Cameron... People might not vote Conservative in Scotland, but it is

:11:27.:11:30.

wrong to think that David Cameron is not seen as a credible figure in

:11:31.:11:33.

people in Scotland so he should do it. People would not listen to

:11:34.:11:37.

anything that wasn't said. There would only be this juxtaposition,

:11:38.:11:45.

for the better Cameron -- of David Cameron and Alex Salmond. Pictures

:11:46.:11:50.

do far more than the words, people would stare at that picture and that

:11:51.:11:52.

would be their abiding memory. I think years much better to debate

:11:53.:11:56.

against Alistair Darling who is a Scot. It is practical, I cannot

:11:57.:12:02.

think he would make any other decision. It is not amazing he would

:12:03.:12:08.

agree to a debate with Alex Salmond -- Alistair Darling, because he

:12:09.:12:12.

wants to debate. He had taken his time, at least there will now be a

:12:13.:12:16.

debate. Do you think David Cameron should or should not? I think he

:12:17.:12:20.

should but I understand why he should not. Most sides of the

:12:21.:12:27.

campaign are homing in on Labour voters, and David Cameron presses

:12:28.:12:29.

all the wrong buttons for those people. So you are saying it is the

:12:30.:12:36.

specific audience that up and decided, that they need to appeal

:12:37.:12:40.

to? They are going to have a laser-like focus on undecideds.

:12:41.:12:46.

David Cameron is the wrong person to put up for those people. Are you an

:12:47.:12:54.

armed forces they person or a Bannockburn person? I suppose I

:12:55.:13:01.

would be an Armed Forces Day person, I am a medieval historian, I like

:13:02.:13:09.

that stuff, but the Bannockburn stuff this year, it has a

:13:10.:13:17.

cartoonlike character. Where is the Armed Forces Day is about serving

:13:18.:13:22.

personnel and has more relevance. Which are you going to? I am going

:13:23.:13:29.

to sit them both out, I'm doing to take the kids to the botanic Gardens

:13:30.:13:35.

as usual. If you were going? I would probably go to the free one, it is

:13:36.:13:42.

?60 for the family tickets, you cannot take buddies in, you can't

:13:43.:13:48.

take professional -- buddies in, you can't take professional photographic

:13:49.:13:51.

equipment, it is not selling raided. I will be back next week.

:13:52.:13:55.

Goodbye. Good afternoon. A fairly clear-cut

:13:56.:13:58.

Andrew Neil and Gordon Brewer with the latest political news, interviews and debate. Andrew is joined by Labour's work and pensions secretary Rachel Reeves to discuss what reforms Labour would make to the welfare department. Plus, what Nick Clegg needs to do to keep his grass roots happy.


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