06/07/2014 Sunday Politics Scotland


06/07/2014

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Good morning and welcome to the Sunday Politics. Up to 1 million

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public sector workers will strike this week. It is one of the biggest

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walk-out since 2010, the country's top trade union and the Business

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Minister go head-to-head. The Tour de France seems to have cheered him

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up. Just as well. Nick Clegg has nothing more to smile about. He

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joins me live from Sheffield to discuss the Lib Dem plight.

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Just over ten weeks until Scotland determines its future, the man

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leading the campaign against independence, Alistair Darling,

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joins me from Edinburgh. Coming up on Sunday Politics

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Scotland, an independent report commissioned by the Scottish

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Government recommends cutting taxes and overhauling regulation in the

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North Sea. journalists always ahead

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of the peleton - Nick Watt, They'll be tweeting faster than Tour

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de France cyclists can pedal. The news is dominated this morning

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by stories swirling around allegations of an historic

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Westminster paedophile ring. Concern has grown because

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of the disappearance of a dossier handed over to the Home Office in

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1983, along with over 100 official files related to it and possibly

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containing details of historic child Labour is calling for a public

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inquiry led by a child protection But speaking earlier on

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The Andrew Marr Show this morning the Education Secretary Michael Gove

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ruled that out. The most important thing that we

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need to do is ensure that the due process of law pursues those who may

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be guilty of individual crimes and we also learn lessons about what may

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or may not have gone wrong in the past, but it is also important to

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emphasise that many of the allegations that are being made are

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historic. And what we do now in order to keep children safer is

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better and stronger than was the case when 20 or 30 years ago.

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Without getting into a boring tit-for-tat, public inquiry, "yes"

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or "no"? No. Helen, can the Government go on resisting calls for

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a full-scale inquiry? It is very hard. There are cynical and

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non-cynical reasons for calling for an inquiry. The cynical one allows

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you to say I can't comment on this. The non-cynical is it manages to get

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people to air allegations in a way that is safe. What we saw at the

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Leveson Inquiry was helpful, people who felt they had been shut out from

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justice getting a chance to tell their side of the story. A public

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inquiry in this case is a good idea. Labour have called for a lot of

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public inquiries. A list was made in 2012 of how many they called for.

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Not only Savile, but the West Coast Main Line and breast implants. On

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this particular issue, the people don't trust the politicians, they

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don't trust the police either because they may have been complicit

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in a cover-up. They may not trust the Home Office who we are told some

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of their officials were mentioned in the dossier? That is what David

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Cameron is hanging on to. This is a matter now because they are alleged

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criminal activity, it is for the police to investigate. In that big

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piece in the Sunday Times, Tim Shipman reports one of the people

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making the allegations lives in the United States

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making the allegations lives in the been out to the United States to

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interview him. The Prime Minister would say that is how serious the

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police are taking it. The problem for the Prime Minister - he

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police are taking it. The problem allergic to big public inquiry. His

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finest moment was his response to the Bloody Sunday inquiry shortly

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inrequest -- that inquiry took 12 years to report. The problem is the

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dossier has gone missing, the files have gone missing, more allegations

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keep coming out either directly or indirectly. It doesn't look like it

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is going to go away? The fact the dossiers are missing means it is

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inappropriate for the Home Office to be investigating this. There is

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inappropriate for the Home Office to a police investigation. If after

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that, there are questions unanswered which can only be answered by

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that, there are questions unanswered public inquiry, or which require

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resources that can only be commanded by a public inquiry, I could see the

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case for going down that road. I fear that sometimes in this country

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we invest almost supernatural powers in what a public inquiry can do. I

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wonder whether there is another example of a country that goes

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through this stale ritual every few years of a scandal emerging, the

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opposition calling for an inquiry, the Government saying no and then

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holding the line or giving in. I don't know what we think this

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inquiries can do. It comes back to your point, Helen, you should be

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careful what you call an inquiry on so it doesn't devalue the concept.

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On Thursday up to a million public sector workers - including teachers,

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firemen and council workers - will go on strike.

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Their unions have differing gripes but the fact they're all striking

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on the same day is designed to send a strong message to the government.

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As the economy picks up again they're demanding an end

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Growth has returned strongly to the UK economy

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and unemployment is at its lowest level for more than five years.

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So why is there still talk of austerity

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The deficit is coming down but much more slowly than the government

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And accumulated deficits - the national debt -

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The UK is now in hock to the tune of ?1.3 trillion - and rising.

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In fact, we're only 40% of the way through George Osborne's planned

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austerity, with the chancellor now saying he won't manage to balance

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Unions are now rebelling against tight pay controls.

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Since 2010, average public sector pay, which goes to about 1 in 5

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Over the same period, prices increased by 16% -

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meaning the average public sector worker saw their pay squeezed

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Going head-to-head on the public sector strikes and austerity -

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the general secretary of the TUC Frances O'Grady, and Conservative

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We have seen it, public sector pay squeezed by 9% under the Coalition

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Government. Isn't it time to take your foot off the brake a bit? I

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don't think it is the right time to let go of the public finances at

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all. We were always clear that this is what's called a structural

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deficit, it doesn't go away just because the growth is returning and

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the economy is coming back. We have protected and are protecting the

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lowest paid public sector workers who weren't part of the pay freeze

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and now pay going up by 1%. These are difficult decisions. We have had

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that discussion many times. They are necessary in order to keep that plan

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on track and as we can see in the wider economy, it is working.

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People's living standards will have to continue to fall if you are in

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the public sector? We need to keep public spending under control and

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pay restraint is one of the main ways of being able... The answer is

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yes? The answer is this is necessary. The answer is yes, this

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is necessary. It isn't because we want to. We have to. This strike

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isn't going to change the Government's mind, is it? It does

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seem like the Government isn't listening. We have had years... They

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are listening, they just don't agree. Ordinary people, including

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those in the public sector, are finding it really tough. What really

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sticks in the throat is the idea that money can be found to give tax

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cuts to billionaires, to millionaires and to big

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corporations. But it can't be found to help 500,000 workers in local

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government, dinner ladies, school meal workers, lollipop men and women

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who are earning less than the living wage. What do you say to that? We

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have protected those who are the least well-paid in the public

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sector. But this is about a long-term... How can you? Hold on.

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You have said you have protected them. This involves ordinary people,

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many watching this programme, they have had a 1% pay rise in some cases

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since 2010. The average gas bill is up 57%, electric bill up 22%, food

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costs up 16%, running a car 11%, in what way have you protected people

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from spending they have to make? Firstly, you read out the average

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increases in public sector pay. That has had the biggest impact at the

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top end and those at the bottom end have been best protected, as best we

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could. Of course, we have also taken two million people out of income tax

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and increased the income tax threshold which has a big positive

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impact. We have frozen and then cut fuel duty, which would have been 20

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pence higher. I wanted to take on this point about priorities. We have

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got to make sure that we get the economy going at the same time and

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we raised more money from those at the top than we did before 2010,

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partly because we have encouraged them to invest. And this is a really

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important balance of making sure we get the books back in order, we have

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stability for family finances and we get the economy going. Why not

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spread the living wage? We know you could pay for that pay increase

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itself if you spread the living wage through the private sector and

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guarantee... The living wage being above the minimum wage? Absolutely.

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?7.65 in the rest of the country, ?8.80 in London. What is the answer?

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I'm a fan of the minimum wage. But not for public sector workers. Being

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able to pay low-paid workers as much as possible within the constraints

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of the public finances is something I have pushed very hard. The

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evidence we can increase the minimum wage has to be balanced which the

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Low Pay Commission do with the impact on the number of jobs... Even

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after a pay freeze for quite a while among public sector workers, they

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are still paid 15% on average more than those in the private sector?

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That is not true. It is, according to the ONS figures. I read that

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report this morning. If you look at the whole package, what they are

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saying is public service workers are worse off. Average earnings in the

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public sector are ?16.28 an hour compared to ?14.16 private. You are

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comparing apples and pears. It's the kind of jobs and the size of the

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workplace that people work in. They are still overall on average better

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off? Lower paid workers tend to be better off because unions negotiate

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better deals for lower paid workers. They are more unionised in the pry

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private sector. The public sector is worse off. This is a political

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strike, isn't it? There is a whole disparate range of reasons. The

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strike is saying that you are against this Government, that is

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what this is about? I this I what firefighters, local government

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workers and health workers who are protesting, too, alongside teachers

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are saying is that this Government is not listening, it is out of

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touch, people can't carry on having cuts in their living standards

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depending on benefits. When will the public sector worker ever get a real

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increase in their pay under a Conservative Government? Well, we

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certainly hope to have the books balanced by 2018. Not before then?

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2018 is when we hope to be able to be in surplus. It is testament...

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So, no real pay increase for public sector workers before 2018?

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Interestingly, this isn't just about the Conservatives and the Lib Dems,

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the Labour Party leadership have said it is a test of their

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credibility that they support the squeeze on public sector pay. I look

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forward to them, they ought to come out and say very clearly that these

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strikes are wrong and they are against the strikes and stop taking

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union money. It is a democratic right. Hold on. They are - they

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think the policy of pay restraint is necessary. Alright. On this point

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about democracy... Ask yourself why so many ordinary decent public

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service workers are so fed up. They have seen so many billions of pounds

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wasted through outsourcing to organisations like G4 S. In Unite

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and UNISON the turnout in this vote was under 20%. Alright. OK. One

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final question... Hold on. You said millions and millions voted on

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this... I want to ask you this question. Is the story in the Mail

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on Sunday today that Mr Cameron's planning a big crackdown on the

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unions over balloting, is that true? Well, strikes like this... I know

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the cases, is it true you are going to dhang the law? Strikes like this

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make that argument stronger. The Conservative Party is in Government

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on the basis of 23% of the electorate... We have run out of

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time. Thank you very much. "Should Scotland be

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an independent country?" That's the question the people of

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Scotland will answer in a referendum If the polls are to be believed,

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the voters will answer "no". But in 2011 - ten weeks before

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the Holyrood elections - the polls told us that Labour was going to win

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and look what happened there - a Alistair Darling is leading

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the campaign against independnence. is one that puts the matter of

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independence to bed for a generation. In numerical terms, what

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would that be? We need a decisive result in September, I think we will

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get that provided we get our arguments across in the next couple

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of months. What would it be in figures? I am not going to put a

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number on it. People will look at it and say, OK, you have had two and a

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half years of debate and Scotland has now decided. The polls may be

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encouraging at the moment but I am not complacent, there is still a

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long way to go. Speculating... If you don't want to answer that, that

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is fair enough. Your side claims that a vote for independence is a

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vote for massive uncertainty but if it is a no vote there is lots of

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uncertainty too. All of the Westminster parties are promising

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devolution but there is no timetable, no certainty. Yes, there

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is. For the first time I can remember, all three parties are more

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or less on the same page in terms of or less on the same page in terms of

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additional powers, we already have powers in terms of policing and

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transport, now more powers are planned in relation to tax and

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welfare. But you are all saying different things. Between 2009 and

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2012, the three parties have slightly different proposals but

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they came together and there was an agreed series of reforms in relation

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to tax which are now on the statute book. If you go back to the

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devolutionary settlement in 1998, people unified around a single

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proposition so there is history here and these three parties have

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delivered and they will deliver in the event of people saying we will

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stay part of the UK. If Scotland vote no to independence, when will

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Scotland get these extra powers? I would imagine that in the general

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election all three parties will have something in their manifesto and you

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would expect to see legislation in the session of Parliament that

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follows that. Imagining is not certainty. Because the three parties

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have said this is what they will do, and it is important having said that

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they stick to it. If you look in the past when the Nationalists said the

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same thing, when they cast doubt over what would happen in 2012, we

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delivered. The only party that walked out of both of these

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discussions were the Nationalists because they are not interested in

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more powers, they want a complete break. You cannot say that if

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Edinburgh gets more devolution that wouldn't mean fewer Scottish MPs in

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Westminster, can you? Nobody has any plans to reduce the number of MPs.

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If you step back from this moment, what people have been asked to do in

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September is to vote on the future of their country, Scotland, and

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whether we should be part of the UK. When I say part of the UK, full

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members of the UK with representation in the House of

:18:45.:18:48.

Commons and the institutions that affect our lives. This is a

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critically important vote. We want to see more decentralisation of

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power to Scotland, and to local authorities within Scotland, but we

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don't want a complete break with the uncertainties, the risks and the

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downright disadvantages that would throw Scotland's away if we were to

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make that break. The economic arguments are dominating people's

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thinking, the polls show, that is what is dominating at the moment.

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You cannot guarantee continued membership of the European Union

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given all the talk now about an in-out UK referendum. Firstly I

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don't think anyone has ever argued Scotland wouldn't get back in. The

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big question is the terms and conditions we would have to meet and

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we are applying to get into something that is established, it

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wouldn't be a negotiation. What we have said is there is no way Europe

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would let Scotland keep the rebate which Scotland has, there would be

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big questions over whether we have to join the euro, and other terms

:20:16.:20:22.

and conditions. The European Union does not act with any great speed,

:20:23.:20:28.

on average it takes eight and a half years to get into Europe. I don't

:20:29.:20:33.

want that uncertainty or the disadvantages that would come

:20:34.:20:38.

Scotland's away that come with losing clout in the European Union.

:20:39.:20:44.

The second point you asked me about is in relation to the UK's

:20:45.:20:48.

membership of the European Union, and if you look at polls, the

:20:49.:20:53.

majority of people still want to stay in the UK. Frankly, a lot of

:20:54.:21:04.

people on my side didn't make the argument against independence for a

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long time, we have been doing that over the last two and a half years

:21:10.:21:15.

and we are making progress and that is why I can say I think we will win

:21:16.:21:20.

provided we continue to get our arguments across. Similarly with the

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European Union, the case needs to be made because it is a powerful case.

:21:24.:21:29.

Isn't it true that the Nationalists win either way? They win if it is a

:21:30.:21:37.

yes vote, and they win if it is a no vote. They wanted devolution max so

:21:38.:21:46.

they win either way. There is a world of difference between

:21:47.:21:49.

devolution and further devolution where you remain part of the UK.

:21:50.:21:55.

There is a world of difference between that and making a break,

:21:56.:21:59.

where Scotland becomes a foreign country to the rest of the UK. You

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lose that security and those opportunities. You lose the same

:22:05.:22:11.

currency, the opportunity with pensions and so on. They are

:22:12.:22:19.

entitled to argue this case with passion, they want a break, but the

:22:20.:22:24.

two things are worlds apart. Gordon Brown said that the no campaign was

:22:25.:22:30.

too negative, have you adjusted to take that criticism into account?

:22:31.:22:34.

Ever since I launched this campaign over two years ago I said we would

:22:35.:22:39.

make a strong powerful case for remaining part of the UK. Look at

:22:40.:22:46.

our research, where we have had warnings from people to say that if

:22:47.:22:51.

we do well with research in Scotland we get more than our population

:22:52.:22:56.

share of the grand and we gain from that. There is a positive case but

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equally nobody will stop me from saying to the Nationalists, look at

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the assertions you make which are collapsing like skittles at the

:23:06.:23:09.

moment. Their assertions don't stand up. They assert that somehow milk

:23:10.:23:15.

and honey will be flowing. It is perfectly healthy within a

:23:16.:23:19.

referendum campaign to say that what you are saying simply isn't true.

:23:20.:23:27.

You have been negative, we all know about the so-called Cyber Nats book

:23:28.:23:42.

you compared Alex Salmond to the leader of North Korea. On! The

:23:43.:23:51.

context was that Alex Salmond was being asked why it was that UKIP had

:23:52.:23:57.

additional seat and he appeared to blame television being been doing

:23:58.:24:02.

from another country, from BBC South of the border. If you cannot have

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humour in a debate, heaven help us. I think it is important in this

:24:12.:24:16.

debate that people from outside politics should be allowed to have

:24:17.:24:21.

their say whatever side they are on because that will make for a far

:24:22.:24:26.

better, healthier debate. Nobody should be put in a state of fear and

:24:27.:24:30.

alarm by worrying about what will happen if they stand up. Despite the

:24:31.:24:36.

nastiness, more and more people are making a stand. We have run out of

:24:37.:24:43.

time. Thank you. I will be talking to the SNP's

:24:44.:24:49.

hippity leader, Nicola Sturgeon, next week on Sunday Politics.

:24:50.:24:55.

Scotland: For Richer or Poorer will be on BBC Two at 9pm tomorrow.

:24:56.:25:00.

Disastrous results in the European elections, it is fair to say the Lib

:25:01.:25:06.

Dems are down in the doldrums. In a moment I will be speaking to Nick

:25:07.:25:11.

Clegg, but first Emily has been asking what Lib Dems would say to

:25:12.:25:26.

the Prime -- Deputy Prime Minister on Call Clegg. Our phone in this

:25:27.:25:35.

week is the challenges facing the Liberal Democrats. They are rock

:25:36.:25:38.

bottom in the polls and have dire results in the local and European

:25:39.:25:44.

elections so what can the party do to turn things around? Get in

:25:45.:25:49.

touch, we are going straight to line one and Gareth. How much is a

:25:50.:25:55.

problem of that loss of local support? It is a massive problem

:25:56.:25:59.

because those are the building blocks of our success. The

:26:00.:26:03.

councillors who gets the case work done are also the people who go out

:26:04.:26:07.

councillors who gets the case work and deliver the leaflets and knock

:26:08.:26:13.

on doors. Interesting, and it is not just local support the party has

:26:14.:26:18.

lost, is it? In the next general election there are some big-name

:26:19.:26:22.

Liberal Democrat MPs standing down like Malcolm Bruce and Ming

:26:23.:26:32.

Campbell, how much of a problem will that be? That is a real challenge

:26:33.:26:37.

and we have some of our brightest and best reaching an age of maturity

:26:38.:26:43.

at the same moment so that is quite an additional test in what will be a

:26:44.:26:47.

difficult election anyway. So how does the party need to position

:26:48.:26:52.

itself to win back support? Let's go to Chris online free, has the party

:26:53.:26:59.

got its strategy right? There is always a danger of appearing to be a

:27:00.:27:07.

party that merely dilutes Labour or dilutes the Conservatives. We have a

:27:08.:27:10.

of is serious, positive messages and we need to get those across in the

:27:11.:27:15.

next election because if we don't people will vote for the Tories.

:27:16.:27:20.

Nick, what do you think of the party's message at the moment? I

:27:21.:27:26.

have had a look at early draft of our manifesto and there is some good

:27:27.:27:32.

stuff in there but the authors are probably too interested in what may

:27:33.:27:37.

think we have achieved in the last five years and not really focusing

:27:38.:27:42.

on what the voters will want to be hearing about the next five years.

:27:43.:28:10.

Perhaps they should get out more and test some of these messages on the

:28:11.:28:14.

doorstep. So you want to see the top ranks of the party on the doorstep.

:28:15.:28:18.

Gareth online one also wants to make a point about the manifesto. There

:28:19.:28:22.

is clearly a problem somewhere near the top and there are some people

:28:23.:28:27.

who seem to be obsessed with power for power's sake, and happy with a

:28:28.:28:30.

timid offer but the Liberal Democrats want to change things. We

:28:31.:28:36.

are running out of time so let's try to squeeze one more call in. What

:28:37.:28:40.

are your thoughts on the long-term future of the party? I think serious

:28:41.:28:45.

long-term danger is that the party could be relegated to the fringes of

:28:46.:28:50.

the UK and no longer being a national party. We have gone back

:28:51.:28:54.

decades if that happens because for many years we have been represented

:28:55.:28:57.

in every part of the country at some level and we have got to rescue

:28:58.:29:01.

ourselves from that. Some interesting views but we are going

:29:02.:29:05.

to have to wait until the general election next year to find out how

:29:06.:29:09.

well the Lib Dems face up to these challenges. Thanks for listening, we

:29:10.:29:14.

are going to finish with an old classic now.

:29:15.:29:16.

# I'm sorry, I'm sorry... #. Nick Clegg, welcome to the

:29:17.:29:19.

programme. I want to come onto your situation in a minute but as you

:29:20.:29:23.

will have seen in the papers, there is mounting concern over and

:29:24.:29:26.

historic Westminster paedophile ring, and files relating to it

:29:27.:29:28.

mysteriously disappearing. Why are you against a full public enquiry

:29:29.:29:32.

into this? I wouldn't rule anything out. I think we should do anything

:29:33.:29:42.

it takes to uncover this and achieve justice.

:29:43.:29:57.

delivered, even all these many years later. How do you do it? There is an

:29:58.:30:02.

inquiry in the Home Office about what's happened to these documents,

:30:03.:30:06.

serious questions need to be asked about what happened in the Home

:30:07.:30:09.

Office and those questions need to be answered. There are inquiries in

:30:10.:30:13.

the BBC, in the NHS and most importantly of all the police are

:30:14.:30:18.

looking into the places where this abuse was alleged to have taken

:30:19.:30:23.

place. All I would say is, let's make sure that justice is delivered,

:30:24.:30:29.

truth is uncovered and I think that the way to do that, as we have seen,

:30:30.:30:34.

is by allowing the police to get on with their work. You say that, but

:30:35.:30:38.

there are only seven police involved in this inquiry. There are 195

:30:39.:30:42.

involved in the hacking investigations. We can both agree

:30:43.:30:46.

that child abuse is more important and serious than hacking. The Home

:30:47.:30:51.

Office, there are reports that Home Office officials may have been

:30:52.:30:54.

mentioned in the dossier, people don't trust people to investigate

:30:55.:31:00.

themselves, Mr Clegg? No, I accept that we need to make sure that - and

:31:01.:31:04.

the police need to make sure that the police investigations are

:31:05.:31:07.

thorough, well resourced. I can't think of anything more horrendous, I

:31:08.:31:13.

can't, than powerful people organising themselves and worse

:31:14.:31:16.

still, this is what is alleged, covering up for each other to abuse

:31:17.:31:20.

the most vulnerable people in society's care - children. But at

:31:21.:31:24.

the end of the day, the only way you can get people in the dock, the only

:31:25.:31:30.

way you can get people charged, is by allowing the prosecuting

:31:31.:31:32.

authorities and the police to do their job. I have an open mind about

:31:33.:31:38.

what other inquiries take place. A number of other inquiries are taking

:31:39.:31:42.

place. I assume any additional inquiries wouldn't be able to second

:31:43.:31:45.

guess or look into the matters which the police are looking into already.

:31:46.:31:49.

All I would say is that people who have information, who want to

:31:50.:31:52.

provide information which they think is relevant to this, please get in

:31:53.:31:55.

touch with the police. Alright. Let's come on to our own inquiry

:31:56.:32:00.

into the state of the Lib Dems. You have attempted to distance yourself

:32:01.:32:04.

and the party from the Tories, but still stay in Government - it is

:32:05.:32:08.

called aggressive differentiation. Why isn't it working? It's not

:32:09.:32:14.

called aggressive differentiation. It is called "coalition". It is two

:32:15.:32:20.

parties who retain different identities, different values, have

:32:21.:32:22.

different aspirations for the future. But during this Parliament

:32:23.:32:26.

have come together because we were facing a unique national emergency

:32:27.:32:30.

back in 2010, the economy was teetering on the edge of a

:32:31.:32:34.

precipice. I'm immensely proud, notwithstanding our political

:32:35.:32:38.

challenges, which are real, I'm immensely proud that the Liberal

:32:39.:32:40.

Democrats, we stepped up to the plate, held our nerve and without

:32:41.:32:43.

the Liberal Democrats, there wouldn't now be that economic

:32:44.:32:46.

recovery which is helping many people across the country. Why

:32:47.:32:49.

aren't you getting any credit for it? Well, we won't get credit if we

:32:50.:32:57.

spend all our time staring at our navals. If it wasn't for the Liberal

:32:58.:33:01.

Democrats, there wouldn't be more jobs now available to people. They

:33:02.:33:06.

don't believe you, they are giving the Tories the credit for the

:33:07.:33:14.

recovery? Well, you might assert that, we will assert and I will

:33:15.:33:18.

shout it from the rooftops that if we had not created the stability by

:33:19.:33:23.

forming this Coalition Government and then hard-wired into the

:33:24.:33:26.

Government's plans, not only the gory job of fixing the public

:33:27.:33:30.

finances, but doing so much more fairly than would have been the

:33:31.:33:33.

case, if the Conservatives had been in Government on their own, they

:33:34.:33:36.

wouldn't have delivered these tax cuts. They wouldn't have delivered

:33:37.:33:41.

the triple lock guarantee for pensions or the pupil premium. OK.

:33:42.:33:48.

Why are you 8% in the polls? Well, because I think where we get our

:33:49.:33:53.

message across - and I am here in my own constituency - this is a

:33:54.:34:03.

constituency where I am a campaigning MP - we can dispel a lot

:34:04.:34:09.

of the information and say we have done a decent thing by going into

:34:10.:34:12.

Government and we have delivered big changes, big reforms which you can

:34:13.:34:16.

touch and see in your school, in your pensions, in your taxes and

:34:17.:34:23.

then people do support us and, in our areas of strength, we were

:34:24.:34:27.

winning against both the Conservative and Labour parties. It

:34:28.:34:30.

is a big effort. Of course, there are lots of people from both left

:34:31.:34:33.

and right who want to shout us down and want to vilify our role in

:34:34.:34:37.

Government. What we also need to do - and Nick Harvey was quite right -

:34:38.:34:42.

having been proud of our record of delivery, we also need to set out in

:34:43.:34:47.

our manifesto as we are and as we will our promise of more, of more

:34:48.:34:53.

support in schools. So why is it then... Why is it then that a Lib

:34:54.:35:01.

Dem MP in our own film says you are in danger of no longer becoming a

:35:02.:35:05.

National Party. That could be the Clegg legacy, you cease to be a

:35:06.:35:07.

National Party? are in danger of no longer being a

:35:08.:35:11.

National Party, that could be your legacy. I am a practical man and I

:35:12.:35:16.

believe passionately in what we have done in politics. I don't spend that

:35:17.:35:21.

much time speculating endlessly that the end might be nine. Let's get out

:35:22.:35:28.

there, which is what I do, which is what thousands of activists do, and

:35:29.:35:31.

say we are proud of what we have done, we've done a good thing for

:35:32.:35:34.

the country, we've delivered Maud Lib Dem policies than the party has

:35:35.:35:38.

ever dreamt of delivering before, and we have a programme of change,

:35:39.:35:43.

of reform, of liberal reform for the future which is very exciting. I

:35:44.:35:47.

have been setting out our plans of providing more help to carers, to

:35:48.:35:52.

making sure that teachers are properly qualified, that all

:35:53.:35:57.

children in schools are being taught a proper for curriculum. That part

:35:58.:36:00.

company from the ideological rigidity with which the

:36:01.:36:04.

Conservatives deal with education policy. Those are things which speak

:36:05.:36:09.

to the values of people who support us in the past and might do in the

:36:10.:36:14.

future. You say that but when another senior Lib Dem gets out and

:36:15.:36:17.

about, he told this programme two weeks ago that he finds that you,

:36:18.:36:21.

personally, are toxic on the doorstep! As everybody knows, being

:36:22.:36:29.

the leader of a party which, for the first time in its history, goes into

:36:30.:36:32.

government, which is already a controversial thing to do because

:36:33.:36:36.

you are governing -- of winning without erstwhile enemies, the

:36:37.:36:41.

Conservatives, and then doing the difficult and unpopular things to

:36:42.:36:45.

fix the broken economy, left to us by Labour, of course, as leader of

:36:46.:36:49.

that party, I get a lot of incoming fire. The right to say that I am

:36:50.:36:52.

stopping the Conservatives doing what they want. There is a good

:36:53.:36:57.

reason for that, they didn't wind the election. The left say that we

:36:58.:37:01.

have left our soul, when we haven't. That happens day in and day

:37:02.:37:13.

out. That will have some effect, but my answer is not to buckle to those

:37:14.:37:15.

criticisms, those misplaced criticisms, but to stand up proudly

:37:16.:37:18.

for what we have done and what we want to do in the future. Is it

:37:19.:37:21.

still your intention to fight the next election against and in out

:37:22.:37:24.

referendum on Europe unless there is a major change? Our position hasn't

:37:25.:37:33.

wavered. It won't. We will not flip flop on the issue of the referendum

:37:34.:37:38.

like the Conservatives do. We want and in out referendum, and we have

:37:39.:37:41.

legislated for the trigger when that happens. That is what we have said

:37:42.:37:47.

for many years. We have legislated for that. There is no change. We

:37:48.:37:56.

expect a reshuffle shortly, will you keep Vince Cable as Business

:37:57.:37:58.

Secretary all the way to the election? I am immensely proud of

:37:59.:38:03.

what he has done. Yes, I am absolutely intent on ticking sure

:38:04.:38:08.

that Vince Cable serves the government in his present capacity.

:38:09.:38:13.

Look what he has done on apprenticeships, industrial policy.

:38:14.:38:16.

He's done more than many people to make sure we build up manufacturing

:38:17.:38:21.

in the north, not just the south. We've have talked about some heavy

:38:22.:38:25.

things, let's finish on a lighter note. You got into kick boxing to

:38:26.:38:30.

get fit, is there any danger of you becoming a middle aged man in

:38:31.:38:39.

Lycra? Will the Tour de France influence you to become one?

:38:40.:38:44.

Absolutely not. Having seen the grant apart, the Tour de France

:38:45.:38:48.

start yesterday near Leeds, I have the yellow Yorkshire sign on my

:38:49.:38:53.

pullover, I am going to see them later whisked through my

:38:54.:38:56.

constituency, they are very impressive but I will not try to

:38:57.:39:00.

emulate them. To the relief of a grateful nation. Nick Clegg, thank

:39:01.:39:06.

you very much. Coming up to 11:40am, we say goodbye to viewers in

:39:07.:39:09.

Good morning and welcome to Sunday Politics Scotland.

:39:10.:39:15.

A commission of independent experts calls for an overhaul of tax

:39:16.:39:21.

and regulation systems for the North Sea oil and gas sector.

:39:22.:39:28.

Ryanair moves a third of its flights from Prestwick to Glasgow.

:39:29.:39:31.

We'll ask the Transport Minister Keith Brown what

:39:32.:39:32.

the future holds for the Ayrshire airport bought for ?1.

:39:33.:39:44.

I name this ship Queen Elisabeth. May God bless her and all who sail

:39:45.:39:49.

in her. HMS Queen Elizabeth,

:39:50.:39:55.

described as the jewel in the crown of UK defence, but questions remain

:39:56.:39:57.

over her deployment. The North Sea needs a new tax

:39:58.:40:03.

and regulation regime, An independent commission set up

:40:04.:40:06.

by the Scottish government is recommending "fundamental change"

:40:07.:40:10.

to encourage new investment The Scottish government promises

:40:11.:40:12.

a more stable tax regime if there's a yes vote in the

:40:13.:40:16.

independence referendum, but the UK government argues that it's better

:40:17.:40:19.

placed to support the industry. The commission, chaired by

:40:20.:40:35.

Campbell, is working on the bases there are around 24 billion barrels

:40:36.:40:39.

of oil store be -- to be extracted from the North Sea, and they see

:40:40.:40:44.

that as a major opportunity but one which the UK continental shelf is

:40:45.:40:48.

not as attractive in investment as it was. We are at a tipping point

:40:49.:40:51.

and there is part of the tax regime which would be appropriate going

:40:52.:40:55.

forward with some changes, but there are other parts where, if we will

:40:56.:41:01.

target accessing the more difficult oil and more expensive oil, we will

:41:02.:41:06.

have to modify and update the tax regime. To change that, they say

:41:07.:41:10.

government needs to work out a more stable, predictable and

:41:11.:41:14.

internationally competitive tax regime and they suggest lower taxes

:41:15.:41:18.

with a modified allowances could incentivise new development. The

:41:19.:41:21.

Scottish covenant has welcomed their report and promised a stable tax

:41:22.:41:25.

regime if Scotland becomes independent. If you are investing

:41:26.:41:29.

several billion dollars, then you want to know you're not going to be

:41:30.:41:36.

hit with sudden tax hikes. The tax regime in the UK has been

:41:37.:41:39.

characterised, I'm afraid, by a series of unheralded tax breaks,

:41:40.:41:46.

most recently by Danny Alexander in 2011, brought forward without any

:41:47.:41:50.

consultation whatsoever. That was a disaster. The UK Government argues

:41:51.:41:59.

that the industry's best supported within a large economy, less

:42:00.:42:00.

dependent on oil and gas revenues. Well, joining me now is

:42:01.:42:02.

the economist and journalist George Kerevan and, in London, Kiran Stacey

:42:03.:42:05.

who's a political correspondent One of the things I found very

:42:06.:42:16.

sobering is there has been talk about so much oil left, and

:42:17.:42:21.

investment at record levels, but what it says is that while it is

:42:22.:42:25.

true that investment is at record levels, exploration activity are at

:42:26.:42:34.

a record low, which kind of puts this into perspective, doesn't it? I

:42:35.:42:42.

don't think... The UK Treasury has treated this will industry as a

:42:43.:42:45.

piggy bank to squeeze out as much cash as much as possible. This is

:42:46.:42:51.

not a farmer working the field, squeezing the crops and destroying

:42:52.:42:56.

the fields, you need to think longer term. They want to get away from a

:42:57.:43:04.

policy of get as much tax revenue out as possible as quickly as

:43:05.:43:07.

possible to let's grow the industry, let's grow the jobs and

:43:08.:43:12.

technology and look longer term. If you do that, you'll get the money as

:43:13.:43:18.

well. That is a fundamental shift. The problem is the Scottish covenant

:43:19.:43:22.

have made so many promises about independence which are reliant on

:43:23.:43:25.

these oil revenues. The aggregate revenues over a number of years

:43:26.:43:30.

might increase if you could get the North Sea to go on longer but, in

:43:31.:43:33.

the short time, with these proposals, it would mean taking it

:43:34.:43:39.

on annual. It doesn't actually say cut taxes as such. It does,

:43:40.:43:45.

actually. Cutting the headline rate, right. The tax regime in the North

:43:46.:43:52.

Sea is fiendishly complicated. We are not getting into it! Do not do!

:43:53.:44:00.

I will not. Every new field has a new tax regime. The accountants

:44:01.:44:07.

cannot cope with it. What they are suggesting, the industry

:44:08.:44:10.

heavyweights, is let's simplify the whole thing. The overall tax take

:44:11.:44:17.

home will be the same. So, the headline rate might come down but

:44:18.:44:21.

there might be changes for different fields. So, they are not suggesting

:44:22.:44:27.

to cut the tax. What they want instability, knowing that when you

:44:28.:44:31.

wake up on budget day, they haven't changed the taxes so your whole

:44:32.:44:35.

business plan is out of the window, which is what has happened in the

:44:36.:44:40.

past. There is nothing, is there, that the UK Government would

:44:41.:44:42.

necessarily disagree with in this report. The fundamental point,

:44:43.:44:48.

taking the politics out of it is that the existing tax regime was

:44:49.:44:53.

developed when it was on the rise. It is now a declining area. And they

:44:54.:44:57.

want to maximise investment because it is higher cost to get things out,

:44:58.:45:02.

therefore you need a different tax regime. I think that's right. We

:45:03.:45:07.

have already had another review which has been accepted across the

:45:08.:45:11.

political divide which suggests something similar, they suggest

:45:12.:45:14.

there needs to be more collaboration both within the industry and between

:45:15.:45:19.

government and the industry to get more stability into the tax and

:45:20.:45:23.

regulation regime. It talks about a lot of collaboration, even after

:45:24.:45:30.

independence. What the industry has in mind is what happened in 2011,

:45:31.:45:35.

that you hinted at, which was caught Osborne mounting a 2 billion pound

:45:36.:45:41.

tax rate on the industry, which frightened a lot of people out

:45:42.:45:45.

there. It made people think again about what kind of regime they need

:45:46.:45:50.

to have. The facts are stark. The cost of developing oil have gone up

:45:51.:45:55.

five times over the last decade, but the review thought that if those

:45:56.:45:59.

proposals were carried out, it could mean an extra ?200 billion worth of

:46:00.:46:04.

oil and gas coming through into Scottish covers, or UK cough is, as

:46:05.:46:10.

a result of that. So this is pushing in the same direction, talking bout

:46:11.:46:13.

collaboration, stability of tax regime, talking about people having

:46:14.:46:18.

the time to plan because it is harder and harder and more and more

:46:19.:46:23.

expensive to get oil and gas out of the North Sea. You, presumably,

:46:24.:46:27.

would agree with that. Moffatt Campbell made the point that he

:46:28.:46:31.

would like this to be taken on board, irrespective of the

:46:32.:46:36.

referendum, said if it is no vote, he'd like the UK Government to say

:46:37.:46:40.

it is quite sensible and to have a look at it. This is common-sense.

:46:41.:46:47.

The question is will the politicians deliver North and South? I think

:46:48.:46:51.

what you might find from the Scottish Government is that it will

:46:52.:46:58.

take on board the proposal... That individual fields, with the license

:46:59.:47:06.

is provided to them, that is a commitment that the Scottish

:47:07.:47:09.

Government will have to consult if there are any changes. It is too

:47:10.:47:12.

easy for politicians to say they will consult, that has to be a legal

:47:13.:47:17.

basis. Written into the contract? Yes. Are you preventing the kind of

:47:18.:47:25.

tax grab that we were talking about? Consultation doesn't stop

:47:26.:47:31.

politicians changing the taxes but what you are committed to doing is

:47:32.:47:34.

having a formal period of consultation. If you do that, you

:47:35.:47:39.

create stability long-term. The problem is that it has happened time

:47:40.:47:43.

and time again, you wake up on the morning of the budget, and things

:47:44.:47:48.

have changed, and your entire investment strategy is dead in the

:47:49.:47:52.

water. Is there an elephant in the room here, which is that we all

:47:53.:47:57.

assumed... I am not getting your question, sorry. Is there an

:47:58.:48:01.

elephant in the room that oil prices would stay high, but with shale oil,

:48:02.:48:08.

shale gas, huge new reserves coming on stream, renewables and great

:48:09.:48:12.

efficiencies, the outlook for the North Sea might be more trouble than

:48:13.:48:15.

has been assumed? That is exactly right. The tax regime is beside the

:48:16.:48:22.

point. The reality is, as I mentioned before, it's hard and more

:48:23.:48:26.

expensive to get oil out, but it is cheaper and more profitable to get

:48:27.:48:30.

it out of other places, particularly in the States with the massive shale

:48:31.:48:36.

gas boom. That kind of development is driving down oil costs, so what

:48:37.:48:40.

the industry has to cope with is this situation where it is more

:48:41.:48:43.

expensive to get oil out, they are not getting as much money for it as

:48:44.:48:47.

they sell it on, and the tax regime is not that much to do with it,

:48:48.:48:52.

although it does generate certainty if the government can say over a

:48:53.:48:55.

long period of time this is what we will taxi. What these companies want

:48:56.:48:59.

is for the oil prices to be higher, and there's nothing that the

:49:00.:49:03.

government can about that. Thank you both.

:49:04.:49:05.

Last month, the Scottish Government outlined its multimillion pound

:49:06.:49:07.

investment plans for the recovery of Prestwick Airport.

:49:08.:49:09.

This week, the airport's only passenger carrier, Ryanair,

:49:10.:49:11.

announced new routes from Glasgow and Edinburgh airports with a

:49:12.:49:13.

What does this mean for the airport's commercial viability?

:49:14.:49:17.

Bought for ?1 and with an eye watering amount

:49:18.:49:24.

of excess baggage, the future of Prestwick Airport is a key concern

:49:25.:49:27.

The Scottish Government is making an investment in the airport. That

:49:28.:49:40.

investment will be in the form of loan funding, and we want a

:49:41.:49:44.

long-term return for taxpayer money. That investment is worth nearly

:49:45.:49:50.

?10 million on top of ?5.5 million The money will fund repairs and make

:49:51.:49:53.

improvements to the terminal, but there's concern fewer passengers

:49:54.:49:56.

will be passing through its doors as It is clearly serious reducing the

:49:57.:50:11.

number of flights and passenger movements. We are slightly

:50:12.:50:17.

disappointed that it did not support those at Prestwick airport but

:50:18.:50:23.

Ryanair will continue to have a role at Prestwick which is quite

:50:24.:50:32.

positive. The change will move brutes away from Prestwick bringing

:50:33.:50:39.

the number of Ryan near passengers down to 500,000 per year. The firm

:50:40.:50:45.

insists it is not backing away from your sure. We are in discussions

:50:46.:50:52.

with Prestwick airport and the Scottish Government. We have a large

:50:53.:50:57.

presence with over 300 staff employed at Prestwick airport. The

:50:58.:51:06.

passenger side seems to have taken a bit of a blow this week. Additional

:51:07.:51:13.

routes will attract more customers in an overcrowded market. I do

:51:14.:51:21.

believe there is enough business for everyone

:51:22.:51:21.

believe there is enough business for but at the end of the day the

:51:22.:51:25.

airlines will fly wherever they want, where they think they will

:51:26.:51:30.

make more money so the airlines will decide on their plans for the

:51:31.:51:31.

future. There is a growing focus on the main

:51:32.:51:37.

competitors in the central belt. There was a monopoly in the central

:51:38.:51:58.

belt but Ryan near enabled the first low-cost flights to come in to

:51:59.:52:04.

Stansted. Now that they are competing heavily you do not need

:52:05.:52:09.

that degree of competition so Prestwick which was a useful

:52:10.:52:15.

bargaining chip simply is not that relevant to the low-cost airlines

:52:16.:52:22.

today. Only half of the airport's current income is generated by

:52:23.:52:28.

passenger trade, the rest is dedicated to free it. It is a unique

:52:29.:52:40.

airport in the UK, it is fog free, it is linked to the real network. We

:52:41.:52:47.

are hopeful the is a sustainable future. -- rail network. Industry

:52:48.:53:02.

experts say unwanted delays should be expected. I am joined by the

:53:03.:53:11.

transport minister and a Conservative MP from Aberdeen. Isn't

:53:12.:53:16.

the sad reality that you might have been better at keeping your pound in

:53:17.:53:20.

your pocket and alarming Prestwick to close. As was being said their

:53:21.:53:26.

comedy does not seem a lot of point to it? There are 400 people directly

:53:27.:53:37.

in Clwyd and more than 3000 rely on it directly for their employment. In

:53:38.:53:43.

economic terms and aviation terms wouldn't it be better to move those

:53:44.:53:50.

jobs elsewhere. -- directly employed. Whether it is freed or

:53:51.:54:01.

aircraft repair, crucially in terms of passenger services the airlines

:54:02.:54:06.

will move around. We have to make sure the facilities are such that we

:54:07.:54:15.

can attract new flights in. Have you got any proposals? Are their any

:54:16.:54:20.

discussions going on to get new airlines to operate from Prestwick?

:54:21.:54:28.

There is a prospect. The fact that Ryanair have moved and are tripling

:54:29.:54:33.

the flights to Dublin rather than from Glasgow and Prestwick. Who are

:54:34.:54:40.

these airlines that are going to move in? EasyJet? You do not

:54:41.:54:48.

restrict yourself to one carrier. Name one. There is no restricted

:54:49.:54:59.

list, any of them. You can surely tell us who you are discussing

:55:00.:55:05.

with? That is up to the airport and the people in charge of marketing.

:55:06.:55:12.

It was losing between one and ?3 million per year, we are only in the

:55:13.:55:16.

first three months of taking over the airport. It is not making money,

:55:17.:55:25.

is it? Faced with the prospect of closure and the massive

:55:26.:55:30.

redundancies... So you do not actually, in response to why you did

:55:31.:55:37.

not close it and redeploy the people elsewhere, your answer is you are

:55:38.:55:43.

not sure. You are having unspecified negotiations with unspecified

:55:44.:55:46.

carriers who might do unspecified things that sometime in the future?

:55:47.:55:53.

That was not the answer. There are other services that go on at

:55:54.:55:57.

Prestwick, whether the fleet services, unique services such as

:55:58.:56:03.

the train service. We think there are real selling points for the

:56:04.:56:13.

airport. One of the reasons for not having publicly owned airports in

:56:14.:56:18.

the first place was because the airlines do more than ministers for

:56:19.:56:32.

them. The Conservatives keep saying there must be a proper business

:56:33.:56:37.

case, are you convinced there is one? I am not convinced the is one.

:56:38.:56:42.

They did the right thing by not allowing the airport to collapse

:56:43.:56:50.

overnight but the government is not taking the opportunity it has to go

:56:51.:56:54.

forward and do other things as a government to improve the prospects

:56:55.:57:01.

of Prestwick airport. I have been talking for years about the

:57:02.:57:05.

replacement for the group development fund. Prestwick could

:57:06.:57:11.

benefit enormously from one of those which supported the creation of new

:57:12.:57:17.

routes. Give us an example, Keith Brown could not, will you be more

:57:18.:57:25.

specific? Tell me an airline or the route that you could get into

:57:26.:57:31.

Prestwick. I cannot tell you the name of an airline that may be

:57:32.:57:36.

interested but in the past Prestwick found a niche as an airport on the

:57:37.:57:41.

extreme north-west of Europe that serve all airlines by refuelling

:57:42.:57:48.

aircraft crossed the Atlantic and after the arrived here. The Scottish

:57:49.:57:52.

Government is talking about bringing long-haul flights to Scotland in a

:57:53.:57:57.

way we have not done in the past. That could involve the use of

:57:58.:58:03.

extremely large passenger aircraft and Prestwick may be the place to

:58:04.:58:10.

land and take them off in Scotland. Perhaps I was wide off the mark with

:58:11.:58:17.

Korean airlines but he is suggesting they may well come? I did not say I

:58:18.:58:22.

could not give you an airline but I would not. It is sensitive matter

:58:23.:58:30.

shall activity. He is suggesting use the runway to do intercontinental

:58:31.:58:37.

flights that at the moment do not come into Scotland. Alex Salmond is

:58:38.:58:42.

keen on more links with China, would Prestwick be the place for that? It

:58:43.:58:49.

could be. We have to get the right package to these airlines. He knows

:58:50.:58:55.

it is outlawed by The European Commission and we have been

:58:56.:58:58.

successful at getting new routes into Lascaux, Edinburgh and Aberdeen

:58:59.:59:06.

by providing a package. We use that same expertise to attract new

:59:07.:59:11.

business into Prestwick as well as the vitally important freight and

:59:12.:59:13.

ground-based activities going on just now. I'd macro if the worst

:59:14.:59:20.

comes to it and Prestwick airport has to close, that whole operation

:59:21.:59:25.

could be moved somewhere else, could it not? Or it could stay at

:59:26.:59:29.

Prestwick even if it was not an airport? Our plan is to keep it as

:59:30.:59:38.

an airport. It is a long-term proposal. It is the long-term skill

:59:39.:59:44.

to get them back into the operation we would like to see. It will take

:59:45.:59:53.

some time to get this back. We will have to leave it there. Thank you

:59:54.:59:58.

both for joining us. Now let us cross for the news. Good afternoon.

:59:59.:00:10.

Oil and gas experts are recommending a new tax and regulation regime for

:00:11.:00:16.

the North Sea. There are calls for fundamental change to encourage

:00:17.:00:25.

funding. There are estimates that 24 billion barrels of oil are still to

:00:26.:00:31.

be extracted. We are at the tipping point. There are parts of the tax

:00:32.:00:36.

regime that could go forward with changes. If we are going to target

:00:37.:00:42.

accessing the more difficult oil we will have to modify and upgrade the

:00:43.:00:48.

tax regime. The Scottish Government has welcomed the report and promised

:00:49.:00:53.

a stable tax regime if Scotland becomes independent. A search is

:00:54.:01:01.

continuing today after a canoeist went missing in Perthshire. Boat

:01:02.:01:09.

capsized shortly before five yesterday evening in culling area.

:01:10.:01:15.

One of the occupants made it to shore. A 29-year-old man is still

:01:16.:01:24.

missing. -- Killin. Friends of the Earth has criticised organisers of

:01:25.:01:30.

the Commonwealth Games. The say they have fallen short of the original

:01:31.:01:37.

promises to create low emission zones. Time for a look at the

:01:38.:01:46.

weather. Good afternoon. Little change in terms of the weather this

:01:47.:01:51.

afternoon. More in the way of sunshine and showers. The focus of

:01:52.:01:57.

the showers will be across the West Highlands and into Western

:01:58.:02:02.

Aberdeenshire. There could be some heavy and thundery downpours.

:02:03.:02:06.

Glasgow and the south-west hold onto drier weather with the West Coast

:02:07.:02:13.

seeing plenty sunshine. That is the forecast. That is all for now. Back

:02:14.:02:23.

to the studio. The first Sea Lord describe it as the first dual in the

:02:24.:02:28.

crown of the UK sea defence. The largest warship ever built for the

:02:29.:02:36.

Royal Navy was officially built and -- was officially commemorated by

:02:37.:02:42.

the Queen. The ship still has to be fitted out and launched. Significant

:02:43.:02:51.

spending decisions which will decide how the carriers are used in the

:02:52.:02:58.

future are yet to be decided. A further order is expected in the

:02:59.:03:01.

next three months but the carriers will be without any planes until

:03:02.:03:08.

2020. The role of the second carrier is still in the balance. Others are

:03:09.:03:18.

still to be commissioned. We are joined by an expert now. Can I ask a

:03:19.:03:27.

very basic question, someone in a radio programme the other day said

:03:28.:03:34.

the problem with these carriers is that the Russians already have

:03:35.:03:38.

missiles which can blow them out of the water so they are obsolete as

:03:39.:03:41.

they are launched, is there any truth in that? The military

:03:42.:03:48.

capability exercise by many nations, not just Russia but Japan, China,

:03:49.:03:55.

Iran, Israel, everyone holds anti-ship missiles which could

:03:56.:03:59.

theoretically take on any aircraft carrier, whether British, US,

:04:00.:04:06.

Chinese, Korean, Japanese, they could be hit and sunk by one of

:04:07.:04:11.

these missiles. Normally when a ship goes to see it is surrounded by

:04:12.:04:16.

layers of protection which enable that threat to be defeated. It is

:04:17.:04:21.

not just those on board but other ships around it which enable those

:04:22.:04:30.

risks to be exercised at sea. Be allowed on board systems and they

:04:31.:04:34.

have them on-board frigates and destroyers surrounding it, with the

:04:35.:04:44.

guarantee it could not hit? There are concerns that there aren't a

:04:45.:04:48.

sufficient number of destroyers to provide protection against a

:04:49.:04:51.

high-end thread. On the other hand, you can mitigate against such

:04:52.:04:57.

threats by how you position and use the carrier. If you go back to the

:04:58.:05:02.

Falklands in 1982, eight destroyers were used to protect the carrier in

:05:03.:05:07.

various ways. It was still felt there was a significant threat is

:05:08.:05:10.

not from missiles but from submarines, and, as such, both of

:05:11.:05:17.

the carriers that were used words kept it significant distance for

:05:18.:05:20.

periods of time, and then surged as they moved forward. They mitigated

:05:21.:05:24.

the risk both from missiles and from submarines. These are conjugated

:05:25.:05:30.

questions. I understand, but there is an element here to say that don't

:05:31.:05:36.

take the carrier anywhere dangerous, yet the hall point is precisely to

:05:37.:05:40.

take it somewhere dangerous. I think that's right. There are degrees of

:05:41.:05:48.

risk and danger. If you're going up against a very sophisticated

:05:49.:05:52.

high-end threat, you'd want to be taking most of the Royal Navy to

:05:53.:05:55.

protect this carrier and you'd be wanting to have some extra

:05:56.:06:00.

assistance, perhaps from American or French colleagues and counterparts,

:06:01.:06:05.

perhaps as part of a NATO group, but for 90% of the time, when you're

:06:06.:06:10.

doing constabulary operations, perhaps supporting operations with

:06:11.:06:16.

the French in North Africa, you require less protection. It depends

:06:17.:06:19.

on the situation and the risk you're willing to take. What about HMS

:06:20.:06:25.

Prince of Wales? Danny Alexander said it would be available to the

:06:26.:06:30.

British Armed Forces, but is it down there in black-and-white? Have a

:06:31.:06:34.

definitely decided to keep it? And if they have, have they decided to

:06:35.:06:38.

keep it in such a way that it could be operational when the first

:06:39.:06:43.

carrier is in dock for maintenance? This is a good question and it

:06:44.:06:49.

hasn't been codified yet. So far, the position with Prince of Wales is

:06:50.:06:52.

that it could be put in, but they could also sell it to the Brazilians

:06:53.:06:59.

or another state, they could mothball it, and not use it at all,

:07:00.:07:03.

they could bring it out and use it in an amphibious role with just

:07:04.:07:09.

helicopters. I think these decisions are ready important. It will

:07:10.:07:13.

characterise how Britain will do intervention in the future. With one

:07:14.:07:17.

carrier, we are limited like the French to Britain going in, going in

:07:18.:07:24.

fast, hard, turning around and going home so your mission is done within

:07:25.:07:29.

eight or nine months. That is attractive with some models of

:07:30.:07:34.

intervention like the recent operations in Africa. But for

:07:35.:07:39.

something long-term, you need to have more than one carrier. And here

:07:40.:07:45.

we look at Kosovo, Bosnia, those ones that have had real success. Not

:07:46.:07:50.

just in the war fighting or deterrence. In the 1960s, Iraqi was

:07:51.:07:55.

going to invade Kuwait, and it looked likely that it that region

:07:56.:08:03.

was going to be taken over with the threat to the UK because of the

:08:04.:08:08.

cut-off of supply. They walked in, fronted up, they didn't even need to

:08:09.:08:12.

launch aircraft because that statement of intent prevented that.

:08:13.:08:17.

Thanks very much indeed for joining us.

:08:18.:08:18.

Now it's time for a look at the week ahead.

:08:19.:08:23.

Our guests this week are Alan Roden, Scottish political editor

:08:24.:08:26.

of the Daily Mail, and Murray Ritchie,

:08:27.:08:28.

former political editor at the Herald.

:08:29.:08:34.

Just a quick comment on this oil and gas report which came out this

:08:35.:08:42.

morning. You could argue it either way. It will be used by both sides

:08:43.:08:48.

of the referendum campaign. Of course, the Scottish Government will

:08:49.:08:54.

-- has responded, and the UK Government will respond. The UK

:08:55.:08:58.

Government will say that the tax regime is better with the UK, the

:08:59.:09:01.

Scottish Government will say the opposite. The UK Government will say

:09:02.:09:06.

the oil is harder to get out, the Scottish Government will say there

:09:07.:09:09.

is lots left. The Scottish Government have welcomed it, which

:09:10.:09:14.

is significant. Oil is more expensive to get out, and the tax

:09:15.:09:19.

regime reflects that. So it is a perfectly sensible report, and both

:09:20.:09:23.

governments will welcome it although the UK Government is being a bit

:09:24.:09:30.

iffy. Other stuff, a story about academics and independence, Sir Paul

:09:31.:09:35.

nurse is asking the Scottish and British government is to pledge that

:09:36.:09:44.

academics will not be penalised. Is this academics worrying needlessly?

:09:45.:09:48.

There was some evidence earlier this year when a Dundee University

:09:49.:09:53.

academics spoke out and then the university was contacted by a

:09:54.:09:56.

Scottish government minister, said there is some evidence that there

:09:57.:09:59.

might be some element of intimidation going on, but academics

:10:00.:10:02.

are bright enough to know they should be able to speak out, and

:10:03.:10:06.

plenty of them have spoken out and will continue to do so. Whatever the

:10:07.:10:12.

details of that is, the suggestion that somehow or other, you will be

:10:13.:10:17.

penalised in the sense you might not get research funding, is there any

:10:18.:10:21.

evidence for that? There is no strong evidence, but there are fears

:10:22.:10:26.

of that, which is what we have seen entered a's papers. More

:10:27.:10:31.

interestingly, it is businesses that are concerned about the impact of

:10:32.:10:35.

this. They are more scared to speak out because of fear of being

:10:36.:10:40.

penalised. Even if the Scottish Government has listened to this,

:10:41.:10:43.

there is a bit of fear around. People laugh hearing... Part of the

:10:44.:10:51.

problem is that lots of places are tied to the state. Yes, but nobody

:10:52.:10:57.

is being deliberately silenced. Their arguments all over the place.

:10:58.:11:03.

Academics are reticent, they are always desperate to give their

:11:04.:11:07.

latest eye views and opinions. So I don't see why they shouldn't. And it

:11:08.:11:17.

looks the independence referendum look positively polite! Other

:11:18.:11:24.

stories, the police and guns. Graham Pearson has written to Kenny

:11:25.:11:27.

MacAskill over the lack of consultation. This is about... We

:11:28.:11:31.

should make it clear, the police have had guns for some time, but

:11:32.:11:36.

they were carried by guns, you had to contact a senior officer to

:11:37.:11:39.

unlock them, but we are moving to a situation where the police are

:11:40.:11:42.

carrying them around on the street and there seems to be a blip

:11:43.:11:49.

concern, and I am not sure whether the fact that there was no

:11:50.:11:58.

consultation is the worry. It is worrying. I am comfortable with the

:11:59.:12:04.

fact that the police are not routinely armed, unlike America or

:12:05.:12:10.

Belfast. At the airport, when you see a machine gun, it can be

:12:11.:12:14.

disconcerting. So when people are aware the police are armed and not

:12:15.:12:18.

telling us they are armed, it is alarming. If they told us they were

:12:19.:12:24.

doing it for a specific purpose, if there was a terrorist threat or

:12:25.:12:27.

security problem, but if they are doing it covertly, we have to watch

:12:28.:12:34.

that carefully. The latest case was people complaining that in a

:12:35.:12:39.

McDonald's restaurant in Inverness, there were policeman in their openly

:12:40.:12:44.

carrying weapons. I agree with Murray. It is the Highland region

:12:45.:12:48.

where we have seen police carrying the guns. I think because it has

:12:49.:12:52.

spread to there. It didn't happen in that area before. The lack of

:12:53.:12:58.

consultation is worrying. We've seen other examples of this with Police

:12:59.:13:02.

Scotland now that it is centralised, we were not being told

:13:03.:13:06.

enough, and the public are rightly concerned. If the police are

:13:07.:13:08.

carrying guns, that would cause alarms. With the stop and search

:13:09.:13:15.

issue, there are allegations that police are making up stop and

:13:16.:13:18.

searches in their reports because they are being bullied into senior

:13:19.:13:22.

officers. And they are also doing a lot of stop and searches that have

:13:23.:13:26.

no statuary bases. There's a lovely quote saying you breach and rights

:13:27.:13:30.

by doing it, but you expect us to do it. Stop and search is a big issue

:13:31.:13:36.

and happening a lot more in Scotland than in England. Add there is a

:13:37.:13:41.

problem. If they catch someone with a knife, that's a good thing.

:13:42.:13:46.

Excessive bureaucracy, and we should stop it. Right, so don't do any

:13:47.:13:51.

more? All right. That is all we have time for this week. I'll be back at

:13:52.:13:55.

the same time next week. From all of us, goodbye.

:13:56.:13:58.

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