Browse content similar to 25/05/2014. Check below for episodes and series from the same categories and more!
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Good morning, welcome to the Sunday Politics. Senior Liberal Democrats | :00:38. | :00:43. | |
say the public has lost trust in Nick Clegg. They call for him to go | :00:44. | :00:50. | |
after the local election meltdown. And before the likely Europa rove a | :00:51. | :00:53. | |
catastrophe tonight. Labour and Tories struggled to cope with the | :00:54. | :00:59. | |
UKIP insurgency as Nigel Farage hosts his success and declares the | :01:00. | :01:03. | |
In the south`east, the polls are henhouse. | :01:04. | :01:13. | |
In the south`east, the polls are closed and the votes have been | :01:14. | :01:16. | |
counted. We found through the winners | :01:17. | :01:16. | |
hall spread, the Liberal Democrats disappeared, UKIP failed to show. | :01:17. | :01:21. | |
More analysis in just over half an hour. | :01:22. | :01:29. | |
Cooped up in the Sunday Politics henhouse, our own boot should -- | :01:30. | :01:38. | |
bunch of headless chickens. Nick Watt, Helen Lewis, Janan Ganesh. The | :01:39. | :01:42. | |
Liberal Democrats lost over 300 councillors on Thursday, on top of | :01:43. | :01:47. | |
the losses in previous years, the local government base has been | :01:48. | :01:51. | |
whittled away in many parts of the country. Members of the European | :01:52. | :01:53. | |
Parliament will face a similar comment when the results are | :01:54. | :01:57. | |
announced tonight. A small but growing chorus of Liberal Democrats | :01:58. | :02:03. | |
have called on Nick Clegg to go. This is what the candidate in West | :02:04. | :02:07. | |
Dorset had to say. People know that locally we worked | :02:08. | :02:14. | |
incredibly hard on their councils and as their MPs, but Nick Clegg is | :02:15. | :02:18. | |
perceived to have not been trustworthy in leadership. Do you | :02:19. | :02:25. | |
trust him? He has lacked bone on significant issues that are the core | :02:26. | :02:32. | |
values of our party. This is how the party president | :02:33. | :02:35. | |
responded. At this time, it would be foolish | :02:36. | :02:43. | |
for us as a party to turn in on ourselves. What has separated us | :02:44. | :02:47. | |
from the Conservatives is, while they have been like cats in a sack, | :02:48. | :02:51. | |
we have stood united, and that is what we will continue to do. The | :02:52. | :02:57. | |
major reason why is because we consented to the coalition, unlike | :02:58. | :03:02. | |
the Conservatives. We had a vote, and a full conference. | :03:03. | :03:12. | |
Is there a growing question over Nick Clegg's leadership? Different | :03:13. | :03:18. | |
people have different views. My own view is I need to consult my own | :03:19. | :03:23. | |
activists and members before coming to a conclusion. I am looking at | :03:24. | :03:26. | |
holding a meeting for us to discuss the issue. I have been told by some | :03:27. | :03:32. | |
people they do not think a meeting is required, they think he should | :03:33. | :03:35. | |
stay, and other people have decided he should go. As a responsible | :03:36. | :03:40. | |
Democrat, I should consult the members here before coming to my | :03:41. | :03:45. | |
conclusions. What is your view at the moment? I have got to listen to | :03:46. | :03:51. | |
my members. But you must have some kind of you. Because I have an open | :03:52. | :03:58. | |
mind, I do not think he must stay, I am willing to say I have not made my | :03:59. | :04:04. | |
mind up. From a news point of view, that is my official position. I can | :04:05. | :04:09. | |
assure you there is not much news in that! I said earlier I am not going | :04:10. | :04:15. | |
to say he must go must stay, I am consulting my members. But you must | :04:16. | :04:21. | |
have some kind of view of your own before you have listened to your | :04:22. | :04:25. | |
members. There are people who are wrongfully sanctioned and end up | :04:26. | :04:30. | |
using food banks, I am upset about that, because we should not | :04:31. | :04:34. | |
allow... I do not mind having a sanctioning system, that I get | :04:35. | :04:39. | |
constituents who are put in this position, we should not accept that. | :04:40. | :04:44. | |
I rebel on the issue of a referendum on membership of the EU. I am also | :04:45. | :04:49. | |
concerned about the way the rules have been changed in terms of how | :04:50. | :04:54. | |
parents are treated in their ability to take children to funerals out of | :04:55. | :05:01. | |
school time. There are questions about the leader's responsible T for | :05:02. | :05:05. | |
those policies. Nick Clegg has made it clear he is a staunch | :05:06. | :05:10. | |
pro-European, he wants the Liberal Democrats to be in, he does not want | :05:11. | :05:15. | |
a referendum, if you lose a chunk of your MEPs tonight, what does that | :05:16. | :05:19. | |
say about how in June you are with written public opinion? There are | :05:20. | :05:24. | |
issues with how you publish your policies. I do not agree 100% with | :05:25. | :05:29. | |
what the government is doing or with what Nick Clegg says. I do think we | :05:30. | :05:35. | |
should stay within the EU, because the alternative means we have less | :05:36. | :05:41. | |
control over our borders. There is a presentational issue, because what | :05:42. | :05:46. | |
UKIP want, to leave the EU, is worse in terms of control of borders, | :05:47. | :05:50. | |
which is their main reason for wanting to leave, which is strange. | :05:51. | :05:57. | |
There are debate issues, but I have got personal concerns, I do worry | :05:58. | :06:01. | |
about the impact on my constituents when they face wrongful sanctions. | :06:02. | :06:06. | |
You have said that. A fellow Liberal Democrat MP has compared Nick Clegg | :06:07. | :06:11. | |
to a general at the Somme, causing carnage amongst the troops. I am | :06:12. | :06:17. | |
more interested in the policy issues, are we doing the right | :06:18. | :06:22. | |
things? I do think the coalition was essential, we had to rescue the | :06:23. | :06:26. | |
country from financial problems. My own view on the issue of student | :06:27. | :06:30. | |
finance, we did the right thing, in accordance with the pledge, which | :06:31. | :06:37. | |
was to get a better system, more students are going to university, | :06:38. | :06:39. | |
and more from disadvantaged backgrounds. But there are issues. | :06:40. | :06:44. | |
But Nick Clegg survive as leader through till the next election? It | :06:45. | :06:50. | |
depends what odds you will give me! If you are not going to give me is, | :06:51. | :06:55. | |
I am not going to get! If you listen to John hemming, he has got nothing | :06:56. | :07:01. | |
to worry about. He does have something to worry about, they lost | :07:02. | :07:08. | |
300 seats, on the uniform swing, you would see people like Vince cable | :07:09. | :07:14. | |
and Simon Hughes lose their seats. But nobody wants to be the one to | :07:15. | :07:17. | |
we'll be nice, they would rather wait until after the next election, | :07:18. | :07:24. | |
and then rebuild the party. Yes, there is no chance of him walking | :07:25. | :07:30. | |
away. Somebody like Tim Farron or Vince Cable, whoever the successor | :07:31. | :07:33. | |
is, though have to close the dagger ten months before an election, do | :07:34. | :07:38. | |
they want that spectacle? If I were Nick Clegg, I would walk away, it is | :07:39. | :07:43. | |
reasonably obvious that the left-wing voters who defect had | :07:44. | :07:47. | |
towards the Labour Party in 2010 will not return while he is leader. | :07:48. | :07:52. | |
And anything he was going to achieve historically, the already has done. | :07:53. | :07:59. | |
Unlike David Miliband, sorry, Ed Miliband or David Cameron, he has | :08:00. | :08:03. | |
transformed the identity of the party, they are in government. Had | :08:04. | :08:08. | |
it not been for him, they would have continued to be the main protest | :08:09. | :08:11. | |
party, rather than a party of government. So he has got to take it | :08:12. | :08:17. | |
all the way through until the election. If he left now, he would | :08:18. | :08:22. | |
look like he was a tenant in the conservative house. What we are | :08:23. | :08:27. | |
seeing is an operation to destabilise Nick Clegg, but it is a | :08:28. | :08:32. | |
Liberal Democrat one, so it is chaotic. There are people who have | :08:33. | :08:36. | |
never really been reconciled to the coalition and to Nick Clegg, they | :08:37. | :08:41. | |
are pushing for this. What is Nick Clegg going to do, and Tim Farron? | :08:42. | :08:49. | |
-- what is Vince Cable going to do? Vince Cable is in China, on a | :08:50. | :08:53. | |
business trip. It is like John Major's toothache in 1990. What is | :08:54. | :09:02. | |
Tim Farron doing? He is behind Nick Clegg, because he knows that his | :09:03. | :09:07. | |
best chances of being leader are as the Westland candidate, the person | :09:08. | :09:09. | |
who picks up the mess in a year. Vince Cable's only opportunity is on | :09:10. | :09:18. | |
this side of the election. But you say they are not a party of | :09:19. | :09:22. | |
government, but what looks more likely is overall the -- is no | :09:23. | :09:29. | |
overall control. You might find a common mission looking appealing. | :09:30. | :09:33. | |
They could still hold the balance of power. A lot of people in the Labour | :09:34. | :09:39. | |
Party might say, let's just have a minority government. 30 odds and | :09:40. | :09:45. | |
sods who will not turn up to vote. If they want to be up until 3am | :09:46. | :09:52. | |
every morning, be like that! When you were in short trousers, it was | :09:53. | :09:55. | |
like that every night, it was great fun! The Liberal Democrats will not | :09:56. | :10:04. | |
provide confidence to a minority government, they will pull the plug | :10:05. | :10:09. | |
and behave ruthlessly. Does Nick leg lead the Liberal Democrats into the | :10:10. | :10:17. | |
next election? Yes. Yes. Yes. I am sorry, Nick Clegg, you are | :10:18. | :10:21. | |
finished! We will speak to Paddy Ashdown in the second part of the | :10:22. | :10:25. | |
show to speak about the Liberal Democrats. The UKIP insurgency could | :10:26. | :10:29. | |
not deliver the promised earthquake, but it produced enough shock waves | :10:30. | :10:32. | |
to discombobulated the established parties. They are struggling to work | :10:33. | :10:38. | |
out how to deal with them. We watched it all unfold. | :10:39. | :10:47. | |
Behind the scenes of any election night is intensely busy. Those in | :10:48. | :10:54. | |
charge of party strategy and logistics want their people focused, | :10:55. | :10:57. | |
working with purpose and rehearsed to make sure their spin on the | :10:58. | :11:02. | |
results is what viewers remember and take on board. A bit of a buzz of | :11:03. | :11:09. | |
activity inside the BBC's studio, kept and primed for the results. | :11:10. | :11:14. | |
What this does not show due is the exterior doubles up for hospital | :11:15. | :11:18. | |
dramas like Holby City, there are doorways that are mock-ups of | :11:19. | :11:22. | |
accident and emergency, but the electorate will discover which of | :11:23. | :11:25. | |
the parties they have put into intensive care, which ones are | :11:26. | :11:28. | |
coming out of recovery and which ones are in rude health. We joined | :11:29. | :11:35. | |
David Dimbleby. Good evening, welcome to the BBC's new election | :11:36. | :11:42. | |
centre. When three big beasts become for on the political field, things | :11:43. | :11:46. | |
have changed. Eric Pickles says we will be seen off next year, we will | :11:47. | :11:50. | |
see you at Westminster! This party is going to break through next year, | :11:51. | :11:55. | |
and you never know, we might even hold the balance of power. Old | :11:56. | :12:00. | |
messages that gave voters in excuses to go elsewhere on the ballot paper | :12:01. | :12:04. | |
exposed the older players to questions from within their ranks. | :12:05. | :12:08. | |
In the hen house of the House of Commons, the fox that wants to get | :12:09. | :12:11. | |
in has ruffled feathers. The reason they have had amazing success, a | :12:12. | :12:18. | |
rapid rise, partly what Chuka Umunna says about being a repository, but | :12:19. | :12:24. | |
they have also managed to sound like human beings, and that his Nigel | :12:25. | :12:29. | |
Farage's eight victory. For some conservatives, a pact was the best | :12:30. | :12:33. | |
form of defence. It would be preferable if all members of UKIP | :12:34. | :12:38. | |
and voters became Tories overnight. That seems to be an ambitious | :12:39. | :12:43. | |
proposition. Therefore, we need to do something that welcomes them on | :12:44. | :12:49. | |
board in a slightly different way. Labour had successes, but nobody but | :12:50. | :12:54. | |
they're wizards of Spain was completely buying a big success | :12:55. | :12:58. | |
story. Gaffes behind the scenes and strategic errors were levelled at | :12:59. | :13:02. | |
those who have managed the campaign. They have played a clever game, you | :13:03. | :13:08. | |
shuffle bedecked around, and if UKIP does quite well but not well enough, | :13:09. | :13:11. | |
that helps Labour get in. That kind of mindset will not win the general | :13:12. | :13:18. | |
election, and we saw that in the tap ticks and strategy, and that is why, | :13:19. | :13:22. | |
on our leaflets for the European elections, we chose deliberately not | :13:23. | :13:28. | |
to attack UKIP, that was a bad error. Not so, so somebody who has | :13:29. | :13:35. | |
been in that spotlight. If you look at the electoral maths, UKIP will | :13:36. | :13:39. | |
still be aiming at the Tories in a general election. They are the | :13:40. | :13:43. | |
second party in Rotherham, Labour will always hold what the room, it | :13:44. | :13:47. | |
is safe, there is no point being second in a safe seat. UKIP have | :13:48. | :13:52. | |
taken Castle Point, a Tory seat they will target. The question for the | :13:53. | :13:58. | |
next election, can they make a challenge? The Tories will be under | :13:59. | :14:02. | |
the gun from UKIP. The substance of these results is UKIP not in | :14:03. | :14:08. | |
government, they do not have any MPs, they do not run a single | :14:09. | :14:11. | |
Council, at dismissing them ceased to be an option. The question is, | :14:12. | :14:16. | |
who will they heard most and how do you smoke the keeper's threat? | :14:17. | :14:32. | |
Joining me now, day about and Patrick O'Flynn. Do you agree not | :14:33. | :14:40. | |
enough was done for the elections? No, we have very good results around | :14:41. | :14:46. | |
Hammersmith and Fulham, Croydon, Redbridge, and we picked off council | :14:47. | :14:52. | |
wards in Haringey meaning that Lynne Featherstone and Simon Hughes worked | :14:53. | :15:01. | |
on. The Ashcroft polling shows that in key marginals, we are well ahead | :15:02. | :15:06. | |
and on course to win in 2015. I will be putting Mr Ashcroft's poll to | :15:07. | :15:15. | |
Eric Pickles shortly. On the basis of the local elections your national | :15:16. | :15:20. | |
share of the vote would be just 31%, only two points ahead of the Tories, | :15:21. | :15:25. | |
only two points ahead of Gordon Brown's disastrous performance in | :15:26. | :15:32. | |
2010. Why so low? National share is one thing but I am talking about | :15:33. | :15:35. | |
what we are doing in the key marginals. Clearly some were taken | :15:36. | :15:45. | |
away from others like Rotherham but we have got many voters back. You | :15:46. | :15:50. | |
are only two points better than you were in 2010 and use of your worst | :15:51. | :15:56. | |
defeat in living memory. That is the totality. What matters | :15:57. | :16:01. | |
is seat by seat, that is what the Republicans found in the | :16:02. | :16:06. | |
presidential elections. Patrick O'Flynn, you performed well in the | :16:07. | :16:10. | |
local election but it wasn't an earthquake. It is definitely true | :16:11. | :16:14. | |
that Labour did well in London but that is a double-edged sword because | :16:15. | :16:18. | |
you have an increasing disconnect between the metropolis and the rest | :16:19. | :16:26. | |
of the country. Our vote share was somewhat depressed not just because | :16:27. | :16:29. | |
London is one of our weakest part of the country but because most of the | :16:30. | :16:35. | |
warts in London were 3-member wards and we were typically only putting | :16:36. | :16:39. | |
up one candidate. Even when they fared well, it still tracked down | :16:40. | :16:43. | |
the projected national share. I think we did well, and what was | :16:44. | :16:52. | |
particularly good was getting the target seat list becoming clear | :16:53. | :17:05. | |
before our eyes. Suzanne Evans said that basically smart folk don't vote | :17:06. | :17:11. | |
for UKIP. I think that is a tiny fragment of what she said. She said | :17:12. | :17:16. | |
London is its own entity and is increasingly different from the rest | :17:17. | :17:20. | |
of the country. One of the things that is different from London as | :17:21. | :17:25. | |
opposed to Rotherham is that we have very big parties. I have a few | :17:26. | :17:29. | |
thousand people in mind, Rotherham has a few hundred. People don't go | :17:30. | :17:36. | |
and knock on doors and talk to people, in London we have always had | :17:37. | :17:41. | |
to do that. London is full of young voters, full of ethnically diverse | :17:42. | :17:46. | |
voters, that is why you are not doing well, you don't appeal to live | :17:47. | :17:51. | |
there. I think London in general has a very different attitude to mass | :17:52. | :17:57. | |
uncontrolled immigration. Londoners know that if an immigrant moves in | :17:58. | :18:07. | |
next door to you, to use Nigel Farage's phrase, the world doesn't | :18:08. | :18:11. | |
end tomorrow. People in the big cities know that, that is the point. | :18:12. | :18:19. | |
What Diane Abbott is doing is try to convince London of its moral | :18:20. | :18:25. | |
superiority so I am delighted... It is a simple fact that immigrants do | :18:26. | :18:31. | |
not end the world if they move in next door. The economic recovery is | :18:32. | :18:35. | |
getting more robust by the month, you have a seriously to ship problem | :18:36. | :18:39. | |
according to many people on your own site. Maybe you're 31% of the vote | :18:40. | :18:48. | |
is as good as it gets. Those who go round bitching about Ed Miliband | :18:49. | :18:54. | |
have been doing that before the result. We have all polled very | :18:55. | :19:02. | |
well. Ed Miliband does not polled very well. He has actually fashioned | :19:03. | :19:13. | |
some really effective policies. Unemployment is tumbling, inflation | :19:14. | :19:17. | |
is falling, growth is strengthening, and you have a leader who claims | :19:18. | :19:21. | |
there is a cost of living crisis and he doesn't have a clue about his own | :19:22. | :19:29. | |
cost of living. I think that was poor staff work. That he doesn't | :19:30. | :19:34. | |
know what goes in his own shopping basket? I think his own staff could | :19:35. | :19:46. | |
have prepared him for that. My point is that the numbers are looking | :19:47. | :19:50. | |
better, we know that, but people don't feel better off. Then why are | :19:51. | :20:01. | |
all consumer index polls better? They are feeling confident. They may | :20:02. | :20:05. | |
be saying that, but people are worried about their future, their | :20:06. | :20:11. | |
children's future. That is not what you buy today or tomorrow. If you | :20:12. | :20:15. | |
ask people about their future and their children's future and | :20:16. | :20:18. | |
prospects, they feel frightened. What will be a good result for you | :20:19. | :20:24. | |
in the general election? We need to see Nigel Farage elected as an MP | :20:25. | :20:30. | |
and he mustn't go there on his own. How many people do you think will be | :20:31. | :20:37. | |
with him? Who knows, but we will have 20 to 30 target seat and if you | :20:38. | :20:42. | |
put together the clusters we got in last year's County elections with | :20:43. | :20:45. | |
the one we got this year, you can have a good guess at where they | :20:46. | :20:50. | |
are. A number of people who voted for you and Thursday say they are | :20:51. | :20:54. | |
going to back to the three main parties in general election. It | :20:55. | :20:59. | |
would be foolish of me to say that they are going to stay. Some have | :21:00. | :21:07. | |
said they have just lent their votes but voters hate being taken for | :21:08. | :21:16. | |
granted. It is up to us to broaden our agenda, and build on our | :21:17. | :21:24. | |
strengths, work on our weaknesses. Ed Miliband may have to do a deal | :21:25. | :21:31. | |
with him. We have been here before, but the UKIP bubble is going to | :21:32. | :21:36. | |
burst and that may happen around the time of Newark. Are you going to win | :21:37. | :21:42. | |
Newark now? We are going to give it a really good crack. We love being | :21:43. | :21:47. | |
the underdog, we don't see it as being the big goal -- the be all and | :21:48. | :21:55. | |
end all. If you're going to get a big bounce off the elections, not to | :21:56. | :22:04. | |
go and win your shows people who govern in Parliament, they don't | :22:05. | :22:11. | |
vote for you. It is Labour who have given up the campaign already so we | :22:12. | :22:14. | |
need a really big swing in our favour and we will give it a great | :22:15. | :22:22. | |
crack. The bubble will burst at the Newark by-election, trust me. Have | :22:23. | :22:29. | |
you been to Newark? Newark will see from local people... Where is it? It | :22:30. | :22:38. | |
is outside the M25, I can tell you that. My point is that we are set | :22:39. | :22:44. | |
for victory in 2015. I want to run this clip and get your take on it, | :22:45. | :22:48. | |
an interview that Nigel Farage did with LBC. What they do is they have | :22:49. | :22:54. | |
an auditor to make sure they spend their money in accordance with their | :22:55. | :22:58. | |
rules. You say that is if there is something wrong with it. Hang on, | :22:59. | :23:09. | |
hang on. This is Patrick O'Flynn, is this a friend in the media or a | :23:10. | :23:14. | |
member of the political class? Do you regret doing that now? What were | :23:15. | :23:23. | |
you doing? No, I was trying to get Nigel Farage to a more important | :23:24. | :23:28. | |
interview with Sunday Times that had painstakingly organised. He was on | :23:29. | :23:38. | |
there? I have told the LBC people next door that he was running over. | :23:39. | :23:43. | |
So you interrupted a live interview and you don't regret that? No, | :23:44. | :23:49. | |
because just between us I wasn't a massive enthusiast for that | :23:50. | :23:53. | |
interview taking place at all. I know what James O'Brien is like and | :23:54. | :23:58. | |
I knew it wouldn't be particularly edifying. But your boss wasn't happy | :23:59. | :24:09. | |
with the intervention. Sometimes the boss gets shirty. We all upset our | :24:10. | :24:18. | |
boss every now and again, but anyway you could be an MEP by this time | :24:19. | :24:23. | |
tomorrow and you won't have to do this job any more. You can then just | :24:24. | :24:28. | |
count your salary and your expenses. I will make the contribution my | :24:29. | :24:34. | |
party leader asked me to, to restore Britain to being a self-governing | :24:35. | :24:37. | |
country. Are you going to stay in the job or not? I would not be able | :24:38. | :24:42. | |
to do the job in the same way but I would maybe have some kind of | :24:43. | :24:47. | |
overview. We will leave it there. Yesterday Michael Ashcroft, a former | :24:48. | :24:55. | |
deputy chairman, produced a mammoth opinion poll of more than 26,000 | :24:56. | :25:00. | |
voters in 26 marginal constituencies, crucial seat that | :25:01. | :25:04. | |
will decide the outcome of the general election next year. In 26 | :25:05. | :25:09. | |
constituencies people were asked which party's candidate they would | :25:10. | :25:20. | |
support, and Labour took a healthy 12 point lead, implying a swing of | :25:21. | :25:26. | |
6.5% from Conservatives to Labour from the last general election. That | :25:27. | :25:35. | |
implies Labour would topple 83 Tory MPs. The poll also shows UKIP in | :25:36. | :25:43. | |
second place in four seats, and three of them are Labour seats. | :25:44. | :25:51. | |
Michael Ashcroft says a quarter of those who say they would vote UKIP | :25:52. | :25:56. | |
supported the Tories at the last election. As many as have switched | :25:57. | :26:00. | |
from Labour and the Lib Dems combined. | :26:01. | :26:04. | |
The communities Secretary Eric Pickles joins me now. The Ashcroft | :26:05. | :26:11. | |
Paul that gives Labour a massive 12 point lead in the crucial marginal | :26:12. | :26:16. | |
constituencies, you would lose 83 MPs if this was repeated in an | :26:17. | :26:20. | |
election. It doesn't get worse than that, does it? Yesterday I went | :26:21. | :26:28. | |
through that Paul in great detail, and what it shows is that in a | :26:29. | :26:32. | |
number of key seats we are ahead, and somewhere behind, and I think is | :26:33. | :26:39. | |
Michael rightly shows... You are behind in most of them. This is a | :26:40. | :26:43. | |
snapshot and we have a year in which the economy is going to be | :26:44. | :26:47. | |
improving, and we have a year to say to those candidates that are | :26:48. | :26:52. | |
fighting those key seats, look, just around the corner people are ahead | :26:53. | :26:56. | |
in the same kind of seat as you and we need to redouble our efforts. The | :26:57. | :27:04. | |
Tory brand is dying in major parts of the country, you are the walking | :27:05. | :27:08. | |
dead in Scotland, and now London, huge chunks of London are becoming a | :27:09. | :27:12. | |
no-go zone for you. That's not true with regard to the northern seats. | :27:13. | :27:22. | |
Tell me what seats you have? In terms of councillors we are the | :27:23. | :27:28. | |
largest party in local government. After four years in power... You are | :27:29. | :27:32. | |
smiling but no political party has ever done that. You haven't got a | :27:33. | :27:39. | |
single councillor in the great city of Manchester. We have councillors | :27:40. | :27:46. | |
in Bradford and Leeds, we have more... You haven't got an MP in any | :27:47. | :27:51. | |
of the big cities? We have more councillors in the north of England | :27:52. | :27:56. | |
than Labour. A quarter of those who say they would vote UKIP and did | :27:57. | :28:00. | |
vote UKIP supported the Tories at the last election. Why are so many | :28:01. | :28:05. | |
of your 2010 voters now so disillusioned? Any election will | :28:06. | :28:10. | |
bring a degree of churning, and we hope to get as many back as we can, | :28:11. | :28:15. | |
but we also want to get Liberal Democrats, people who voted for the | :28:16. | :28:21. | |
Lib Dems and the Labour Party. If we concentrate on one part of the | :28:22. | :28:26. | |
electorate, then we won't take power and I believe we will because I | :28:27. | :28:31. | |
believe we represent a wide spectrum of opinion in this country and I | :28:32. | :28:36. | |
believe that delivering a long-term economic plan, delivering prosperity | :28:37. | :28:40. | |
into people 's pockets will be felt. On the basis of the local election | :28:41. | :28:44. | |
results, you would not pick up a single Labour seat in the general | :28:45. | :28:50. | |
election. You make the point that it is about local elections. Seats that | :28:51. | :28:56. | |
Labour should have taken from us they didn't, which is important... I | :28:57. | :29:04. | |
am asking what possible Labour seat you would hope to win after the | :29:05. | :29:10. | |
results on Thursday. Local elections are local elections. The national | :29:11. | :29:13. | |
election will have a much bigger turnout, it will be one year from | :29:14. | :29:18. | |
now, we will be able to demonstrate to the population that the trends we | :29:19. | :29:23. | |
are seeing already in terms of the success of our long-term economic | :29:24. | :29:28. | |
plan, they will be feeling that in their pockets. People need to feel | :29:29. | :29:33. | |
secure about their jobs and feel that their children have a future. | :29:34. | :29:38. | |
Maybe so many of your people are defecting to UKIP because on issues | :29:39. | :29:41. | |
that they really care about like mass immigration, you don't keep | :29:42. | :29:50. | |
your promises. We have reduced immigration and the | :29:51. | :29:56. | |
amount of pull factors. Let me give you the figures. You have said a | :29:57. | :30:03. | |
couple of things are not true. You promised to cut net immigration to | :30:04. | :30:07. | |
under 100,000 by 2015, last year it rose by 50,000, 212,000. You have | :30:08. | :30:16. | |
broken your promise. We still intend to reduce the amount from non-EU | :30:17. | :30:22. | |
countries. I want to be clear, I have no problem with people coming | :30:23. | :30:26. | |
here who want to work and pay their national insurance and tax, to help | :30:27. | :30:33. | |
fund the health service. What I have objection to our people coming here | :30:34. | :30:36. | |
to get the additional benefits. You made the promise. It is our | :30:37. | :30:43. | |
intention to deliver it. People defect to UKIP because mainstream | :30:44. | :30:50. | |
politicians to -- like yourself do not give straight answers. Can you | :30:51. | :30:55. | |
be straight, you will not hit your immigration target by the election, | :30:56. | :30:59. | |
correct? We will announce measures that. People factor. Will you hit | :31:00. | :31:07. | |
your target? It is a year from now, it is our intention to move towards | :31:08. | :31:13. | |
the target. Is it your intention, do you say you will hit your target of | :31:14. | :31:18. | |
under 100,000 net migration by the election? We will do our damnedest. | :31:19. | :31:25. | |
But you will not make it. I do not know that to be fact. They also vote | :31:26. | :31:29. | |
UKIP cos they do not trust you and Europe, David Cameron has promised a | :31:30. | :31:36. | |
referendum, he has vowed to resign if he does not deliver one, but | :31:37. | :31:41. | |
still your voters vote for UKIP. There were reasons why people voted | :31:42. | :31:46. | |
for UKIP. A great deal of anger about the political system, about | :31:47. | :31:53. | |
the Metropolitan elite that they see running programmes like this and the | :31:54. | :31:59. | |
political programmes. We need to listen to their concerns and address | :32:00. | :32:04. | |
them. David Cameron has got a better record on delivery. He vetoed a | :32:05. | :32:11. | |
treaty, he stopped us having to bail out the currency. Why are you likely | :32:12. | :32:17. | |
to convert a night in the European elections? If you do come third, it | :32:18. | :32:23. | |
will show they do not trust you on Europe. Next year, we will face a | :32:24. | :32:31. | |
general election, about having money in people's pockets, about who will | :32:32. | :32:36. | |
run the country. David Davis wants to China and get the voters to trust | :32:37. | :32:42. | |
the Tories on the referendum, he was the pledge to be brought forward to | :32:43. | :32:49. | |
2016. He is a clever guy. But if you are going to try to negotiate a | :32:50. | :32:52. | |
better deal to give the population a better choice, you cannot do that in | :32:53. | :32:59. | |
a year, you will require two years. You are an Essex MP, you know about | :33:00. | :33:05. | |
Essex people, it must be depressing that they are now voting for UKIP. I | :33:06. | :33:12. | |
do not have any UKIP in my constituency. I felt bad to see | :33:13. | :33:17. | |
Basildon go down and to see the leader go down. Do you know why that | :33:18. | :33:25. | |
is? The Tory party does not resonate with the Essex people in the way | :33:26. | :33:29. | |
that the Margaret Thatcher party did. That is why you did not get a | :33:30. | :33:34. | |
majority in 2010 and why you will not win in 2015. We need to connect | :33:35. | :33:42. | |
better. They will want to know about their children's future, will they | :33:43. | :33:47. | |
have a job, a good education? When it comes to electing a national | :33:48. | :33:51. | |
government, they do not want to see Ed Miliband in office. They are | :33:52. | :33:57. | |
voting for Nigel Farage. In terms of what government you get, do you want | :33:58. | :34:02. | |
to see David Cameron in number ten or Ed Miliband? Essex will want to | :34:03. | :34:09. | |
see David Cameron. You only got 36% of the vote four years ago, your | :34:10. | :34:15. | |
party, occurs you did not get the Essex people in the same numbers, | :34:16. | :34:19. | |
like John Major or Margaret Thatcher did. You need more than 36% in 2015 | :34:20. | :34:27. | |
to win the election. On Thursday, your share was 29%. We were 2% | :34:28. | :34:33. | |
behind Labour. They did not do very well either. A year before, -- a | :34:34. | :34:42. | |
year before the election in 1997, they were on 43%. It is highly | :34:43. | :34:48. | |
deliver the votes. We have a campaign looking at the marginals. | :34:49. | :34:53. | |
We know exactly where we are not doing as well as we should be. I am | :34:54. | :34:59. | |
a big fan of Michael Ashcroft. Do you think he does this to be | :35:00. | :35:03. | |
helpful? He is a great man and a good conservative, I am a good | :35:04. | :35:09. | |
friend of his. I think that his publication was one of the best | :35:10. | :35:12. | |
things that happened to the party. You got 36% of the vote last time, | :35:13. | :35:20. | |
you are down to 29, you need 38 or 39, you would get that if you had a | :35:21. | :35:26. | |
pact with UKIP. There will be no pact. I am a Democrat. It is like a | :35:27. | :35:33. | |
market stall, you should put your policies out there and you should | :35:34. | :35:38. | |
not try to fix the market. Would you stop a local pact? There will be no | :35:39. | :35:49. | |
pact with UKIP. None. It has just gone 11:35am. We say | :35:50. | :35:54. | |
goodbye to viewers in Scotland and Northern Ireland. | :35:55. | :35:59. | |
Coming up here, we will speak to the Liberal Democrat election | :36:00. | :36:03. | |
I'm Julia George and this is the coordinator Paddy Ashdown. First, | :36:04. | :36:16. | |
I'm Julia George and this is the Sunday Politics in the South East. | :36:17. | :36:20. | |
Coming up later, billions of barrels of shale oil ARE under the ground | :36:21. | :36:24. | |
across southern England ` so as Ministers prepare plans to allow | :36:25. | :36:27. | |
energy companies to frack under homes without owners' permission ` | :36:28. | :36:30. | |
we ask just how WILL it go down in the Tory heartlands? But first, the | :36:31. | :36:34. | |
election fever is over, and the results are in ` for the local | :36:35. | :36:40. | |
elections at least. The votes were counted well into the next day, but | :36:41. | :36:47. | |
who were the winners and losers? Elation for Labour in Crawley, a | :36:48. | :36:51. | |
town that is also a key parliamentary target. They won four | :36:52. | :36:56. | |
seats from the Conservatives, taken control of the Council for the first | :36:57. | :37:00. | |
time in eight years. Crawley is a crucial win for Labour as it looks | :37:01. | :37:04. | |
to make an impact in the south`east in the general election. The new | :37:05. | :37:07. | |
council leader is one of the youngest in the country at 27. We | :37:08. | :37:14. | |
had a great result, better than expectations, we picked up all the | :37:15. | :37:19. | |
seats we needed to take control. We had a decisive result that people | :37:20. | :37:23. | |
wanted change. Labour is the change they need to vote for nationally | :37:24. | :37:29. | |
next year. Success for Labour also in Hastings, where the party | :37:30. | :37:32. | |
consolidated its position and gained a seat from the Tories. UKIP | :37:33. | :37:36. | |
surrendered their only counsellor to the Conservatives. Overall, our boat | :37:37. | :37:43. | |
is up and in the seats we were looking to hold, the majorities have | :37:44. | :37:48. | |
been up. In Maidstone, the Conservatives lost overall control. | :37:49. | :37:52. | |
UKIP snatched four bottle seats to deprive them of their majority. They | :37:53. | :37:58. | |
don't like Europe, they have concerns about immigration, those | :37:59. | :38:02. | |
pick up with stop when it comes to a pick up with stop when it comes to a | :38:03. | :38:08. | |
general election, I am sure that the UKIP bubble will burst significantly | :38:09. | :38:14. | |
and dramatically. But UKIP disagrees that its success is purely based on | :38:15. | :38:20. | |
protest votes. Most Labour but I'll protest against the Conservatives | :38:21. | :38:25. | |
and vice versa. There are a few voters who are positively embracing | :38:26. | :38:30. | |
with the other parties stand for because they don't stand for | :38:31. | :38:32. | |
anything that resonates with the British public. The Lib Dems in | :38:33. | :38:39. | |
Maidstone had hoped to make gains. They still have 19 seats on a hung | :38:40. | :38:45. | |
council. We are breathing down the Conservatives straight. They lost | :38:46. | :38:48. | |
control of the Council, everybody now ringing us up asking if they can | :38:49. | :38:54. | |
do a deal with us. So we are on the rise here. The Conservatives have | :38:55. | :38:57. | |
been a bit with us. So we are on the rise here. The Conservatives have | :38:58. | :38:59. | |
been of literate in Maidstone. In West Sussex, UKIP added five seats | :39:00. | :39:05. | |
to their tally. It wasn't enough to trouble the Conservatives who remain | :39:06. | :39:08. | |
in power. And the Conservatives stood firm in Worthing with other | :39:09. | :39:14. | |
victories in other Surrey districts and in Tunbridge Wells, where they | :39:15. | :39:19. | |
increased their hold on the borough. I feel elated because we went into | :39:20. | :39:23. | |
this election with some trepidation but we have actually come out with | :39:24. | :39:27. | |
one extra seat, that is a demonstration that the policies we | :39:28. | :39:30. | |
have been putting forward over the last two years have resonated with | :39:31. | :39:35. | |
the general public. This is how it looks across the region: | :39:36. | :39:56. | |
with less than 30% of district and borough councils in contention, | :39:57. | :40:03. | |
these elections were never going to transform the political map in the | :40:04. | :40:07. | |
south`east. But they do tap into the public mood ahead of next year 's | :40:08. | :40:12. | |
general election. These results will now be scrutinised by each party as | :40:13. | :40:16. | |
they set about campaigning for parliamentary dominance next year. | :40:17. | :40:20. | |
UKIP will be hoping they can build on their local council successes and | :40:21. | :40:29. | |
make it to Westminster. So what can we learn from those results ` | :40:30. | :40:32. | |
joining me here is the South East Political Editor, Louise Stewart. | :40:33. | :40:35. | |
What can we learn from Thursday's local election results? It is | :40:36. | :40:38. | |
significant that the Tories lost control of two of their councils, in | :40:39. | :40:43. | |
Maidstone, and in Crawley, that is the significant one because it is a | :40:44. | :40:47. | |
bellwether seat and there was a huge push there by Labour. They launched | :40:48. | :40:52. | |
their south`east campaigned there, Ed Miliband has been down there | :40:53. | :40:55. | |
about three times in the last six months. But nationally, it is number | :40:56. | :41:01. | |
92 on their target list and what the new leader there was saying to me | :41:02. | :41:05. | |
is, if we can take this in the general election, we have already | :41:06. | :41:10. | |
got a majority by that stage. As you know, you can't extrapolate from | :41:11. | :41:13. | |
these elections what will happen next year, because the election is | :41:14. | :41:19. | |
being held on a small number of councils and wards but I do think | :41:20. | :41:23. | |
that Labour did pretty well. I don't think the Conservatives did maybe as | :41:24. | :41:26. | |
badly as might have been expected at this stage in the political cycle. I | :41:27. | :41:30. | |
don't think UKIP created the political earthquake we expected. | :41:31. | :41:36. | |
They are considered to have a heartland in the south`east, a lot | :41:37. | :41:39. | |
of people think Nigel Farage will stand in Kent. There were ambitions | :41:40. | :41:44. | |
for maybe five seat in Tunbridge Wells, they have disappointed a bit | :41:45. | :41:49. | |
in the south`east? You wouldn't know that from his reaction, he says he | :41:50. | :41:53. | |
is delighted with how they did in Kent and Sussex. They didn't get any | :41:54. | :41:59. | |
steeped in Tunbridge Wells. They did do well in Maidstone, they took four | :42:00. | :42:03. | |
wards that in Hastings they were kicked of the council altogether. | :42:04. | :42:07. | |
They didn't cause the political earthquake they predicted but they | :42:08. | :42:12. | |
came second in lots of places, second in vote share in Tunbridge | :42:13. | :42:15. | |
Wells and first past the post doesn't suit the smaller parties. | :42:16. | :42:19. | |
Different system for the European Parliament. Thank you very much. | :42:20. | :42:26. | |
Now, if you'd like more political analysis like that, Louise Stewart | :42:27. | :42:29. | |
blogs on the BBC Sussex, Kent and Surrey websites. | :42:30. | :42:35. | |
And so, joining me now to talk about those election results, we have a | :42:36. | :42:41. | |
full studio ` all of whom have a particular interest in those | :42:42. | :42:47. | |
results. Jeremy Birch is the Labour leader of Hastings Council where, as | :42:48. | :42:51. | |
we heard Labour kept control. Tim Loughton, Conservative MP for East | :42:52. | :42:54. | |
Worthing and Shoreham ` Worthing council was held by the | :42:55. | :42:56. | |
Conservatives; Liberal Democrat PPC James MacCleary who will be standing | :42:57. | :42:59. | |
in Tunbridge Wells at the General Election ` where his party lost two | :43:00. | :43:04. | |
seats and by Diane James ` a UKIP candidate for the European Elections | :43:05. | :43:07. | |
and a local councillor in Surrey. Welcome to one and all. Jeremy, | :43:08. | :43:13. | |
thrilled I'm sure to hold onto Hastings and great news for Labour | :43:14. | :43:17. | |
in Crawley, but if you get net gains in the south`east, UKIP top the | :43:18. | :43:21. | |
table. That's not success at this stage be committed? If you look | :43:22. | :43:28. | |
nationally... This is the south`east, I will get you to talk | :43:29. | :43:31. | |
about the south`east. You have to look at the seats, there were no | :43:32. | :43:38. | |
seats up in many of the Kent towns, nun in Brighton, none in a number of | :43:39. | :43:44. | |
areas Labour would have made gains. A satisfied with coming second to | :43:45. | :43:49. | |
UKIP? I think the south`east is doing as well as we can expect and | :43:50. | :43:52. | |
we are on course for Labour to at least be the largest party in the | :43:53. | :43:57. | |
general election next year. If you read Lord Ashcroft's poll, the most | :43:58. | :44:02. | |
significant margin seeds, Labour win all but one of them. South Thanet, | :44:03. | :44:09. | |
it is possibly where much of Farage will stand. He described one loss as | :44:10. | :44:14. | |
a triumph against bigotry, that anti`UKIP languages and helpful at | :44:15. | :44:19. | |
this stage, is it? Are the one in five people in the south`east to | :44:20. | :44:23. | |
voted in the local elections, are they bigots? I was speaking about | :44:24. | :44:28. | |
the UKIP candidate standing against me, the seat where the mosque in | :44:29. | :44:34. | |
Hastings is located, who made some very unpleasant comments about our | :44:35. | :44:40. | |
Muslim community, and is questionably showing anti`Semitic | :44:41. | :44:43. | |
views as well. UKIP have backed him up but as the Daily Mail showed, | :44:44. | :44:45. | |
this is not the sort of person I think should be in public office. | :44:46. | :44:50. | |
George Osborne says he respects Nigel Farage, anyone else around | :44:51. | :44:58. | |
here? You would be stupid not to. UKIP have put on a lot of games, | :44:59. | :45:03. | |
Nigel Farage getting a huge amount of publicity, it would be stupid not | :45:04. | :45:08. | |
to take notice of him. So that means what this stage, they are now the | :45:09. | :45:14. | |
official opposition in some places, are you tend to make a pact with | :45:15. | :45:20. | |
them? No, we are the incentive party, we will stand at the next | :45:21. | :45:24. | |
election as the Conservative Party. `` Conservative parties. I don't | :45:25. | :45:28. | |
think there will be any UKIP MPs to do a pact with anyway. You have lost | :45:29. | :45:35. | |
overall control in several errors, UKIP are becoming a solid force in | :45:36. | :45:38. | |
the south`east, you will lose MPs to them next year, surely. I don't | :45:39. | :45:44. | |
thing set. If you look at Mike constituency, where UKIP picked up | :45:45. | :45:49. | |
four seats, we were defending 13 out of 15 seats, and where UKIP one, the | :45:50. | :45:57. | |
Labour vote collapse. In one seat, Labour came forth and our boat went | :45:58. | :46:02. | |
up, substantially in some cases. Our boat share is well up on last year. | :46:03. | :46:07. | |
We lost to UKIP where we did because of the weakness of Labour and the | :46:08. | :46:11. | |
Lib Dems. Labour needs to be doing much better. The Lord Ashcroft poll | :46:12. | :46:17. | |
puts a 3`way marginal seat, South Thanet, everyone is expecting Nigel | :46:18. | :46:22. | |
Farage to stand there, that is one seat that surely the Conservatives | :46:23. | :46:28. | |
are going to win. You won't even have an incumbent MP. The | :46:29. | :46:31. | |
Conservatives will lose that? Everybody said he would win last | :46:32. | :46:38. | |
year and he came and miserable third. But you have seven out of | :46:39. | :46:44. | |
eight councillors who are UKIP in Thanet, that is their heartland in | :46:45. | :46:49. | |
the south`east. Yes, but a general election will be different. It is | :46:50. | :46:54. | |
interesting about the optimism, it is only UKIP that seemed to be | :46:55. | :46:58. | |
gloomy about the economy and the world generally, there is a good | :46:59. | :47:01. | |
deal of optimism among conservatives, Lib Dem and | :47:02. | :47:04. | |
particularly Labour voters as well. When we come to a general election, | :47:05. | :47:09. | |
we're talking about positive things, jobs, investment and growth in the | :47:10. | :47:13. | |
economy and stop what we want to see in schools, the NHS. All we have | :47:14. | :47:18. | |
heard from UKIP in this election is negative stuff. Let's see what Diane | :47:19. | :47:26. | |
Jones has to say. UKIP only secured ten seats in the south`east out of | :47:27. | :47:32. | |
60, that is not an earthquake. It is not an earthquake. But it is a very | :47:33. | :47:38. | |
good result. They are in mind with virtually no repetition in the | :47:39. | :47:41. | |
south`east, it is about as Navy blue in the country... That is simply not | :47:42. | :47:47. | |
true, last year Nigel Farage said he was stunned when UKIP came from | :47:48. | :47:51. | |
nowhere to win 17 seats and Kent County Council, you get better last | :47:52. | :47:56. | |
year than this year. You are factoring in the London effect, | :47:57. | :47:58. | |
where we have already admitted we have a lot of work to do. If you | :47:59. | :48:03. | |
look at the south`east on its own, it is the bridgehead that Nigel | :48:04. | :48:08. | |
Farage announced he wanted to form. But it is not as good as last year. | :48:09. | :48:16. | |
But it is still very good. We have made Maidstone a no overall control | :48:17. | :48:19. | |
authority, we have taken a consistent number of second | :48:20. | :48:24. | |
positions. 23% of the vote in Tunbridge Wells, we are number two. | :48:25. | :48:27. | |
That is the most amazing result when you think we have come from | :48:28. | :48:31. | |
absolutely nowhere to achieve that. I accept we could have done better | :48:32. | :48:36. | |
but in terms of the shock that it has sent in Tory heartlands of the | :48:37. | :48:39. | |
south`east, I think is a good result indeed. Mixed results for the | :48:40. | :48:45. | |
Liberal Democrats. In Maidstone, you have survived the national rout but | :48:46. | :48:49. | |
not good news elsewhere in the south`east. You mentioned Maidstone, | :48:50. | :48:54. | |
with but the trend in Maidstone when you look at the vote share in the | :48:55. | :48:59. | |
city would see, we actually won the election overall, that is a | :49:00. | :49:02. | |
fantastic stepping stone for us because Maidstone is a key target | :49:03. | :49:05. | |
for us for next year's general election. So far from surviving a | :49:06. | :49:11. | |
rout, we have bucked the trend. Let's talk about Tunbridge Wells. | :49:12. | :49:15. | |
The Liberal Democrats are left with just three seats there. Tunbridge | :49:16. | :49:19. | |
Wells has to be one of the safest Conservative seats in the country, | :49:20. | :49:23. | |
presumably you're not giving up the day job yet? I am not, but then most | :49:24. | :49:28. | |
parliamentary candidates don't give up their day jobs! What we are | :49:29. | :49:34. | |
emphasising is what we have been doing for several months, the | :49:35. | :49:37. | |
Liberal Democrats are about community politics and getting on | :49:38. | :49:42. | |
the ground and making changes. We will get action on this cinema site, | :49:43. | :49:47. | |
it has been sat there watching the 13 years. Within months, we have a | :49:48. | :49:54. | |
petition of 9000 people... Last time I looked out of the window, it is | :49:55. | :49:59. | |
still there! We have only had a few months and we have got movement | :50:00. | :50:05. | |
already. Many think it is time for a change of leadership, is it time for | :50:06. | :50:10. | |
Nick Clegg to go? I don't think so. I think we have to stay the course | :50:11. | :50:14. | |
with our leader, took us into coalition, first we have been in | :50:15. | :50:17. | |
government for 100 years and he deserves our support. Let's go onto | :50:18. | :50:25. | |
a big story, there are legions of barrels of oil under our feet in | :50:26. | :50:30. | |
Surrey, Sussex and Kent. According to a British Geological Survey. And | :50:31. | :50:33. | |
you know what that means. Fracking is back on the agenda. The | :50:34. | :50:37. | |
government is keen to do all it can to encourage companies to explore | :50:38. | :50:40. | |
these reserves of shale oil. Here's the Energy Minister and MP for | :50:41. | :50:43. | |
Sevenoaks Michael Fallon. People in Kent and Sussex have always known | :50:44. | :50:48. | |
that there is oil there, there are 13 oil wells producing oil at the | :50:49. | :50:52. | |
moment across the wheeled base, and they have been doing so here since | :50:53. | :50:57. | |
the Second World War. They will only be more of it if it is properly | :50:58. | :51:01. | |
licensed and properly proved locally but we now have a better estimate of | :51:02. | :51:05. | |
how much oil is down there and it would be wrong in the inch to | :51:06. | :51:09. | |
national energy security to ignore the potential for extracting more | :51:10. | :51:14. | |
home`grown energy here rather than importing oil from unrivalled parts | :51:15. | :51:18. | |
of the world. The Government have offered money to communities who | :51:19. | :51:21. | |
allow exploratory drilling ` Greenpeace have called it a "bungs | :51:22. | :51:24. | |
and bulldozers approach" and nobody yet knows how easy it will be to | :51:25. | :51:31. | |
extract the shale oil. Michael Fallon is being disingenuous, isn't | :51:32. | :51:36. | |
he, implying that the rush for shale oil is just a continuation of what | :51:37. | :51:41. | |
we have already seen? There has been no high`pressure hydraulic | :51:42. | :51:44. | |
fracturing in the south`east. This is new and very different and very | :51:45. | :51:50. | |
sensitive. It is sensitive because people aren't familiar with shale | :51:51. | :51:54. | |
oil, if we take somewhere like book, there has been drilling for oil on | :51:55. | :52:00. | |
that site, most people didn't know about it, since lodging 86. But not | :52:01. | :52:12. | |
fracking. Fracking is a different version of the same thing. Which | :52:13. | :52:18. | |
involves a huge amount of water, involves chemicals, people's fears | :52:19. | :52:22. | |
about contamination and overuse of water. You can't portray it as a | :52:23. | :52:27. | |
continuation of what's going on. We need to have a big debate and public | :52:28. | :52:33. | |
education exercise on this. You have just said it uses a huge amount of | :52:34. | :52:38. | |
water, my understanding is it will use less water... Do you know where | :52:39. | :52:45. | |
that quote comes from? Comes directly from patrolling company's | :52:46. | :52:52. | |
press release. And yet the Department for energy and climate | :52:53. | :52:56. | |
change is using it as though it is a fact. It is if everyone is picking | :52:57. | :53:01. | |
up on. What people write to me about, not many have, but they worry | :53:02. | :53:05. | |
if they will could be contamination of water? A perfectly reasonable | :53:06. | :53:12. | |
concern. But most fracking wells will be as far down as Ben Nevis is | :53:13. | :53:18. | |
high. It needs to be done properly, it needs to be properly licensed, | :53:19. | :53:23. | |
scrutiny from the county councils, Environment Agency, but we would be | :53:24. | :53:27. | |
crazy to ignore what is a source of energy for this country which we | :53:28. | :53:30. | |
desperately need as part of a mixed economy. We so have the largest wind | :53:31. | :53:35. | |
farm off the coast of my constituency. This is becoming an | :53:36. | :53:42. | |
increasingly unpopular Tory policy, we are seeing support for fracking | :53:43. | :53:49. | |
falling from 52% to 41%. Wouldn't it be better to to distance yourself | :53:50. | :53:58. | |
from fracking? Personally, I have always disagreed with fracking, and | :53:59. | :54:01. | |
it is a short`term missed approach and it is the wrong emphasis for our | :54:02. | :54:05. | |
energy policy. I think we should invest in renewables and | :54:06. | :54:12. | |
incentivised energy companies. So you disagree with it they be? | :54:13. | :54:21. | |
Absolutely, I always have done. Your leader describes fracking is a | :54:22. | :54:24. | |
God`given opportunity for the south`east, is that sensible | :54:25. | :54:30. | |
politically, is it a vote winner? Lets put into context, the | :54:31. | :54:33. | |
Conservative Party have claimed that the party political book will be | :54:34. | :54:36. | |
used to whip their elected councillors at every political whip. | :54:37. | :54:44. | |
The UK position on this is very clear. Local referenda, so | :54:45. | :54:49. | |
individual communities can decide whether they support it or oppose it | :54:50. | :54:54. | |
and that voice will be listened to. No elected UKIP councillor, despite | :54:55. | :54:59. | |
a policy statement from Nigel Farage supporting it, no elected | :55:00. | :55:06. | |
councillor, UKIP MP, will go against that. In context, let's put the | :55:07. | :55:14. | |
statement in context, it was to do about security of energy supply. | :55:15. | :55:20. | |
What we have also said is if we were not a member of the EU, we would not | :55:21. | :55:23. | |
have to be following the ridiculous diktats... Hold on, France has | :55:24. | :55:29. | |
banned fracking already. You can't blame the EU for this. France has | :55:30. | :55:33. | |
banned fracking. You can make your own decisions. Wouldn't it be nice | :55:34. | :55:40. | |
if David Cameron would ban fracking? Are you for it or against it? I want | :55:41. | :55:49. | |
to see local communities... You must have an opinion. I don't know the | :55:50. | :55:58. | |
full argument. You can't have your cake and eat it. You can't have your | :55:59. | :56:03. | |
energy and security and eat it, you need to have a policy. You want | :56:04. | :56:10. | |
lower energy bills but Labour seems hesitant to commit fully to a probe | :56:11. | :56:18. | |
fracking policy, why? The idea that the South Downs National Park as the | :56:19. | :56:23. | |
new Texas is frankly ridiculous. Interesting that Romania and | :56:24. | :56:26. | |
Bulgaria have banned fracking, perhaps UKIP can make a visit to | :56:27. | :56:31. | |
check out what is going on! I think we want a proper national debate and | :56:32. | :56:34. | |
I wouldn't leave it to the government who have already made up | :56:35. | :56:38. | |
their opinion, and tried to bribe local communities to accept it. | :56:39. | :56:41. | |
Let's have a real debate about the benefits. And let's have a real | :56:42. | :56:50. | |
debate about the not benefits. Tim is being blase about the impacts | :56:51. | :56:55. | |
this could have on the water table. This is a big issue for the | :56:56. | :56:59. | |
south`east. If you look at the amount of oil that could be | :57:00. | :57:03. | |
extracted, it is very small, but 0.5% of North Sea oil reserves. Is | :57:04. | :57:10. | |
this a storm in a teacup? Jeremy, your position, do you know yet? We | :57:11. | :57:17. | |
want a proper and informed debate, not a government led debate. Are you | :57:18. | :57:24. | |
pro`or anti`fracking? I have given my answer, I think. We will leave it | :57:25. | :57:33. | |
there. Now it's time for some other political stories you might have | :57:34. | :57:36. | |
missed this week ` James Fitzgerald has them in Sixty Seconds. | :57:37. | :57:45. | |
And Barnes has taken part in the document tree which profiles her | :57:46. | :57:50. | |
life as Kent's police and crime commission. P P C. Sorry, try that | :57:51. | :58:03. | |
again. She said she did say to demonstrate she is open and | :58:04. | :58:06. | |
transparent but her involvement was criticised by a police scrutiny | :58:07. | :58:11. | |
panel. It brings the whole force into disrepute and I feel sorry for | :58:12. | :58:14. | |
Kent Police. Southeastern says it has paid ?1.5 million in | :58:15. | :58:21. | |
compensation to those inconvenienced this winter by landslips which | :58:22. | :58:23. | |
closed the main line into east Sussex. Seven than it beaches were | :58:24. | :58:30. | |
committed with a blue flag cleanliness award only for some of | :58:31. | :58:33. | |
them to be flooded with Cilic next day. `` Cilic. I am disgusted with | :58:34. | :58:42. | |
it. The business is all the way along the coastline. | :58:43. | :58:46. | |
That's all we've got time for from the South East this week ` my thanks | :58:47. | :58:55. | |
to all our guests. Parliament's not sitting next week so neither are we | :58:56. | :58:59. | |
` but there's full coverage on BBC One of the European election results | :59:00. | :59:00. | |
which are announced this evening. deported. We should also review the | :59:01. | :59:08. | |
benefits system to make it contributory. Thank you. With that, | :59:09. | :59:11. | |
back to you, Andrew. Welcome back. Mutterings among Lib | :59:12. | :59:23. | |
Dems about Nick Clegg's leaderships, as we reported at the top of the | :59:24. | :59:28. | |
show, and tonight it could get even worse when we get the results of the | :59:29. | :59:33. | |
European elections. Paddy Ashdown, former Lib Dem leader, joins me now | :59:34. | :59:38. | |
from our Westminster studio. Something has to change for the Lib | :59:39. | :59:42. | |
Dems, if Nick Clegg isn't the change what will it be? The messages we | :59:43. | :59:50. | |
have about reducing tax on the poorest, they now have traction. We | :59:51. | :00:02. | |
have been on many programmes of this sort before, this idea that has been | :00:03. | :00:08. | |
put about by these people who are calling for a leadership election is | :00:09. | :00:12. | |
the silliest idea I have heard in my political career. It is not serious | :00:13. | :00:17. | |
politics. This is the moment when we need to get out with a really good | :00:18. | :00:21. | |
message and campaign through the summer in the context of the general | :00:22. | :00:27. | |
election. Spending it on a divisive leadership contest is ridiculous. At | :00:28. | :00:35. | |
the very moment when our sacrifices are beginning to gain traction, we | :00:36. | :00:44. | |
turn in on ourselves. The question is, can the Liberal Democrats hack | :00:45. | :00:49. | |
being in government? If we were to take this step, the anther would be | :00:50. | :00:55. | |
no, and that would damage the party forever. It is clearly a problem, | :00:56. | :01:00. | |
you have had to come out and defend Nick Clegg, we have not even had the | :01:01. | :01:05. | |
European election results yet. It could get even worse by midnight. I | :01:06. | :01:12. | |
have been up here anyway, to argue the party's case in the context of | :01:13. | :01:16. | |
tonight. Let me try to put this in scale. We have a website which | :01:17. | :01:25. | |
people can join to show their ascent to the fact that they like cake, it | :01:26. | :01:30. | |
is called Liberal Democrats like cake, it has more people signed up | :01:31. | :01:35. | |
than this website that is calling for a leadership election. Something | :01:36. | :01:42. | |
like 200, of course this happens from time to time, the wonder is you | :01:43. | :01:48. | |
are talking -- you are taking it seriously. Your colleagues are | :01:49. | :01:51. | |
taking it seriously, including sitting MPs. People trot out a list | :01:52. | :01:57. | |
of achievements that the party would like to be associated with, he began | :01:58. | :02:02. | |
doing just that, but you have been doing that for months, if not for | :02:03. | :02:08. | |
over a year, your ratings in the polls are terrible, you had a | :02:09. | :02:13. | |
terrible local election, and you will probably have a terrible | :02:14. | :02:16. | |
European election. It will cut through much better in the context | :02:17. | :02:21. | |
of an election, we have been talking about the European elections. We | :02:22. | :02:25. | |
have been here a long time, let me take you back, we have had tough | :02:26. | :02:33. | |
times, in 1989, we came last in every constituency in Britain, save | :02:34. | :02:39. | |
one, behind the Green party. One or two voices said, you have got to | :02:40. | :02:46. | |
ditch the leader, me, you had one of them on earlier, John Hemmings, as I | :02:47. | :02:51. | |
recall. One or two said we had to change course, but we stood our | :02:52. | :02:55. | |
ground, and in the general election we not only re-established our | :02:56. | :02:58. | |
position from a base of almost nothing, we laid the basis and | :02:59. | :03:05. | |
foundation for doubling our seats in 1997. That is what the party can do, | :03:06. | :03:10. | |
they have a great message, and insert of wasting the summer and | :03:11. | :03:18. | |
autumn on a leadership contest, we should be doing that. Nick Clegg had | :03:19. | :03:24. | |
two opportunities to put part of that message across in the debate | :03:25. | :03:30. | |
over Europe, but the party poll ratings fell after that. What Nick | :03:31. | :03:35. | |
elected us to try to fill a vacuum of antique European rhetoric. And he | :03:36. | :03:44. | |
lost. He could not change the best part of a generation of | :03:45. | :03:49. | |
anti-European propaganda in a couple of performances? He lost the second | :03:50. | :03:53. | |
debate more than the first. It is a long-term programme. Nick Clegg had | :03:54. | :03:59. | |
the courage to take us into government. He took that decision | :04:00. | :04:07. | |
before the party and gained 75, 80% support in a democratic vote. He has | :04:08. | :04:12. | |
led the party with outstanding judgement. He has showed almost | :04:13. | :04:20. | |
incredible grace under fire, being attacked from all sides, because | :04:21. | :04:23. | |
some people hate the coalition, and he has the courage to do what no | :04:24. | :04:28. | |
other Liberal Democrat leader has done, to stand up before the British | :04:29. | :04:32. | |
people and say unequivocally, we are in favour of Europe. He is a man of | :04:33. | :04:41. | |
courage, integrity, decency, he is one of the best prime ministers | :04:42. | :04:46. | |
Britain has not got. In the context of a general election, that will go | :04:47. | :04:51. | |
through. I am devoted to the man, he can do amazingly well in the general | :04:52. | :04:55. | |
election. But he is losing local elections again and again, the | :04:56. | :05:00. | |
European elections, and he is on track to lose the general election. | :05:01. | :05:03. | |
European elections are not easy for us. Whatever happens tomorrow | :05:04. | :05:10. | |
morning, it will not be bad -- as bad as 1989. We have had that line. | :05:11. | :05:18. | |
In the context of a general election, we fought our way back, | :05:19. | :05:24. | |
this time, we have been in government, we start from a higher | :05:25. | :05:28. | |
base, we have a message to tell about how we alone have taken the | :05:29. | :05:31. | |
tough decisions to get this country out of the worst economic mess it | :05:32. | :05:36. | |
has ever seen, left to us by the Labour Party. We can go out in the | :05:37. | :05:40. | |
context of a general election and fight for that. My guess is that the | :05:41. | :05:45. | |
resurgence of the party in the context of a general election will | :05:46. | :05:50. | |
be far greater than you are suggesting. | :05:51. | :05:57. | |
We have done the Liberal Democrats, that move onto the other parties. | :05:58. | :06:04. | |
How bad a leadership problem does Ed Miliband have? He has a continuation | :06:05. | :06:08. | |
of a problem he has had for a long time. The Labour Party thought they | :06:09. | :06:14. | |
had a soft lead, and they have the same situation, everybody is hanging | :06:15. | :06:18. | |
on. They have to make a breakthrough. The big thing is that | :06:19. | :06:21. | |
lots of people at Shadow Cabinet wish they had taken on UKIP, why was | :06:22. | :06:28. | |
Labour turning its fire on the Liberal Democrats? They should have | :06:29. | :06:33. | |
been taking on UKIP, and UKIP taken seats from them, such as in | :06:34. | :06:39. | |
Rotherham. They have finally woken up. I think there is a class war | :06:40. | :06:44. | |
breaking out, the northerners have taken against Ed Miliband and the | :06:45. | :06:48. | |
Metropolitan sophisticates around them... One Labour MP has said, we | :06:49. | :06:54. | |
do not want these guacamole eating people from North London! A number | :06:55. | :07:02. | |
doing that. They wanted to take the fight to UKIP, because UKIP is | :07:03. | :07:07. | |
getting working-class, Northern Labour votes. John Mann said it was | :07:08. | :07:13. | |
ridiculous that the Labour Party did not put posters in the North of | :07:14. | :07:17. | |
England to say that Nigel Farage regarded Margaret Thatcher as his | :07:18. | :07:23. | |
heroine. But in a funny way, those Northern Labour MPs are speaking for | :07:24. | :07:28. | |
the South, because the Labour Party will only win the general election | :07:29. | :07:32. | |
if it takes back those seats in the south, the south-east, a couple of | :07:33. | :07:35. | |
seats in the south-west that Tony Blair in 1997, and they acknowledge | :07:36. | :07:42. | |
that. It is important to say they did win the local elections, they | :07:43. | :07:50. | |
got 31%, but that was only to bustle -- two points hang-up the | :07:51. | :07:55. | |
Conservatives. Neil Kinnock got 38% in 1991, the year before John Major | :07:56. | :08:00. | |
got the largest in of votes ever. There is unease in the shadow | :08:01. | :08:05. | |
cabinet about why Ed Miliband did not take on UKIP on immigration | :08:06. | :08:10. | |
earlier. But Ed Miliband says, we should not be calling UKIP names, we | :08:11. | :08:15. | |
should be calling them out, and he would say he did call them out. The | :08:16. | :08:19. | |
unease in the party has made the results worse for them than they | :08:20. | :08:23. | |
should have been, they did pretty well on Thursday. Although UKIP took | :08:24. | :08:29. | |
votes from them in safe seats, in the end, it will not make much | :08:30. | :08:35. | |
difference. UKIP is taking votes from Tories in marginals. It made it | :08:36. | :08:41. | |
appear that Labour have not done well. Diane Abbott was right, a lot | :08:42. | :08:46. | |
of the Labour MPs who came out on Friday morning had been practising | :08:47. | :08:51. | |
their lines in expectation of a disappointing result. In the north, | :08:52. | :08:56. | |
I do not think UKIP's status of the main nonlabour right-wing party will | :08:57. | :09:00. | |
damage Labour. If you have a majority of 25,000... But in the | :09:01. | :09:07. | |
South and Midlands, UKIP could break the non-Tory vote in such a way as | :09:08. | :09:10. | |
to cost Labour marginal seats that they would otherwise win. As for the | :09:11. | :09:18. | |
Tories, look back at 2009, UKIP 116 or 17% of the popular vote in the | :09:19. | :09:23. | |
European elections and fell to 3% in the general election. You mentioned | :09:24. | :09:32. | |
Europe, the Tories are anticipating finishing third, they did not do | :09:33. | :09:37. | |
well on Thursday, they seem to be putting everything on Europe, we | :09:38. | :09:43. | |
will beat UKIP in Newark. That is the line I am getting from them. The | :09:44. | :09:48. | |
Liberal Democrats and Labour are nowhere there, they both got 20% of | :09:49. | :09:53. | |
the vote, the Tories got 53%, a majority of 16,000. UKIP do not need | :09:54. | :09:58. | |
to do well to have an enormous increase on last time. This seed is | :09:59. | :10:03. | |
a referendum on Tories against UKIP, which we have not seen so far. I was | :10:04. | :10:10. | |
there for the rocky road packed. David Cameron gave a piece of rocky | :10:11. | :10:17. | |
road to Boris Johnson, saying, you know you want it, Boris. The Tories | :10:18. | :10:21. | |
must be a head, because at the bakery stores, the blue buns outsold | :10:22. | :10:30. | |
the UKIP buns. Ed Miliband bit off more than he | :10:31. | :10:36. | |
could chew when he turned launch into a budgeted last week, but he is | :10:37. | :10:39. | |
not the first politician to make a meal of it. | :10:40. | :10:56. | |
I love a hot pasty, the choice was to have a small one or a large one, | :10:57. | :11:37. | |
and I opted for the large one, and very good it was, too. | :11:38. | :11:44. | |
The significance of the Ed Miliband business is more about the media, we | :11:45. | :11:49. | |
can amplify nothingness, but because the narrative is that Ed Miliband is | :11:50. | :11:55. | |
accident prone, even eating a big concern which becomes an accident. | :11:56. | :12:00. | |
He is deemed to be weird, so we find pictures that support the | :12:01. | :12:04. | |
conclusion. It is a class issue, you reveal your social class by what you | :12:05. | :12:11. | |
eat, what supermarket you go to. You can play somebody accurately. | :12:12. | :12:17. | |
Politicians are largely of a different class from the voters, and | :12:18. | :12:20. | |
as soon as you ask them about food, it becomes apparent. To thine own | :12:21. | :12:27. | |
self be true, David Cameron pretending he was interested in | :12:28. | :12:30. | |
Cornish pasties, he does the cooking at the weekend, lots of posh food, | :12:31. | :12:35. | |
do not pretend to be something you are not. The problem for Ed Miliband | :12:36. | :12:40. | |
with that picture, he has some abnormal people working for him, but | :12:41. | :12:45. | |
what he does not have is a broadcast person who can spot those pictures. | :12:46. | :12:50. | |
George Osborne hired Theo Rogers from the BBC, she has | :12:51. | :12:56. | |
transformed... She may have been guilty of the burger, but she has | :12:57. | :13:00. | |
transformed his image on TV. That is what Ed Miliband needs. You are | :13:01. | :13:06. | |
correct, it Ed Miliband was 15 points ahead in the polls, screwing | :13:07. | :13:10. | |
up the eating of a bacon sandwich would be seen as an endearing trait. | :13:11. | :13:15. | |
We might not have even noticed it. That is all this week, you can get | :13:16. | :13:20. | |
those European election results with David Dimbleby on vote went to 14 | :13:21. | :13:26. | |
from 9pm on the BBC News Channel, and from 11pm on BBC One. No | :13:27. | :13:32. | |
programme next week, but we are back in two weeks. If it is Sunday, it is | :13:33. | :13:34. | |
the Sunday Politics. This week, Britain has voted for its | :13:35. | :14:11. | |
Members of the European Parliament. What will the result tell us about | :14:12. | :14:14. | |
the political mood here in Britain of the results | :14:15. | :14:21. | |
both here and across Europe. | :14:22. | :14:25. |