25/05/2014 Sunday Politics South East


25/05/2014

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Good morning, welcome to the Sunday Politics. Senior Liberal Democrats

:00:38.:00:43.

say the public has lost trust in Nick Clegg. They call for him to go

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after the local election meltdown. And before the likely Europa rove a

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catastrophe tonight. Labour and Tories struggled to cope with the

:00:54.:00:59.

UKIP insurgency as Nigel Farage hosts his success and declares the

:01:00.:01:03.

In the south`east, the polls are henhouse.

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In the south`east, the polls are closed and the votes have been

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counted. We found through the winners

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hall spread, the Liberal Democrats disappeared, UKIP failed to show.

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More analysis in just over half an hour.

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Cooped up in the Sunday Politics henhouse, our own boot should --

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bunch of headless chickens. Nick Watt, Helen Lewis, Janan Ganesh. The

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Liberal Democrats lost over 300 councillors on Thursday, on top of

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the losses in previous years, the local government base has been

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whittled away in many parts of the country. Members of the European

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Parliament will face a similar comment when the results are

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announced tonight. A small but growing chorus of Liberal Democrats

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have called on Nick Clegg to go. This is what the candidate in West

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Dorset had to say. People know that locally we worked

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incredibly hard on their councils and as their MPs, but Nick Clegg is

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perceived to have not been trustworthy in leadership. Do you

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trust him? He has lacked bone on significant issues that are the core

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values of our party. This is how the party president

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responded. At this time, it would be foolish

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for us as a party to turn in on ourselves. What has separated us

:02:44.:02:47.

from the Conservatives is, while they have been like cats in a sack,

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we have stood united, and that is what we will continue to do. The

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major reason why is because we consented to the coalition, unlike

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the Conservatives. We had a vote, and a full conference.

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Is there a growing question over Nick Clegg's leadership? Different

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people have different views. My own view is I need to consult my own

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activists and members before coming to a conclusion. I am looking at

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holding a meeting for us to discuss the issue. I have been told by some

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people they do not think a meeting is required, they think he should

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stay, and other people have decided he should go. As a responsible

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Democrat, I should consult the members here before coming to my

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conclusions. What is your view at the moment? I have got to listen to

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my members. But you must have some kind of you. Because I have an open

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mind, I do not think he must stay, I am willing to say I have not made my

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mind up. From a news point of view, that is my official position. I can

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assure you there is not much news in that! I said earlier I am not going

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to say he must go must stay, I am consulting my members. But you must

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have some kind of view of your own before you have listened to your

:04:22.:04:25.

members. There are people who are wrongfully sanctioned and end up

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using food banks, I am upset about that, because we should not

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allow... I do not mind having a sanctioning system, that I get

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constituents who are put in this position, we should not accept that.

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I rebel on the issue of a referendum on membership of the EU. I am also

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concerned about the way the rules have been changed in terms of how

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parents are treated in their ability to take children to funerals out of

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school time. There are questions about the leader's responsible T for

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those policies. Nick Clegg has made it clear he is a staunch

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pro-European, he wants the Liberal Democrats to be in, he does not want

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a referendum, if you lose a chunk of your MEPs tonight, what does that

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say about how in June you are with written public opinion? There are

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issues with how you publish your policies. I do not agree 100% with

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what the government is doing or with what Nick Clegg says. I do think we

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should stay within the EU, because the alternative means we have less

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control over our borders. There is a presentational issue, because what

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UKIP want, to leave the EU, is worse in terms of control of borders,

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which is their main reason for wanting to leave, which is strange.

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There are debate issues, but I have got personal concerns, I do worry

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about the impact on my constituents when they face wrongful sanctions.

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You have said that. A fellow Liberal Democrat MP has compared Nick Clegg

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to a general at the Somme, causing carnage amongst the troops. I am

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more interested in the policy issues, are we doing the right

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things? I do think the coalition was essential, we had to rescue the

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country from financial problems. My own view on the issue of student

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finance, we did the right thing, in accordance with the pledge, which

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was to get a better system, more students are going to university,

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and more from disadvantaged backgrounds. But there are issues.

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But Nick Clegg survive as leader through till the next election? It

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depends what odds you will give me! If you are not going to give me is,

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I am not going to get! If you listen to John hemming, he has got nothing

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to worry about. He does have something to worry about, they lost

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300 seats, on the uniform swing, you would see people like Vince cable

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and Simon Hughes lose their seats. But nobody wants to be the one to

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we'll be nice, they would rather wait until after the next election,

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and then rebuild the party. Yes, there is no chance of him walking

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away. Somebody like Tim Farron or Vince Cable, whoever the successor

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is, though have to close the dagger ten months before an election, do

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they want that spectacle? If I were Nick Clegg, I would walk away, it is

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reasonably obvious that the left-wing voters who defect had

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towards the Labour Party in 2010 will not return while he is leader.

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And anything he was going to achieve historically, the already has done.

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Unlike David Miliband, sorry, Ed Miliband or David Cameron, he has

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transformed the identity of the party, they are in government. Had

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it not been for him, they would have continued to be the main protest

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party, rather than a party of government. So he has got to take it

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all the way through until the election. If he left now, he would

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look like he was a tenant in the conservative house. What we are

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seeing is an operation to destabilise Nick Clegg, but it is a

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Liberal Democrat one, so it is chaotic. There are people who have

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never really been reconciled to the coalition and to Nick Clegg, they

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are pushing for this. What is Nick Clegg going to do, and Tim Farron?

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-- what is Vince Cable going to do? Vince Cable is in China, on a

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business trip. It is like John Major's toothache in 1990. What is

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Tim Farron doing? He is behind Nick Clegg, because he knows that his

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best chances of being leader are as the Westland candidate, the person

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who picks up the mess in a year. Vince Cable's only opportunity is on

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this side of the election. But you say they are not a party of

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government, but what looks more likely is overall the -- is no

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overall control. You might find a common mission looking appealing.

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They could still hold the balance of power. A lot of people in the Labour

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Party might say, let's just have a minority government. 30 odds and

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sods who will not turn up to vote. If they want to be up until 3am

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every morning, be like that! When you were in short trousers, it was

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like that every night, it was great fun! The Liberal Democrats will not

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provide confidence to a minority government, they will pull the plug

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and behave ruthlessly. Does Nick leg lead the Liberal Democrats into the

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next election? Yes. Yes. Yes. I am sorry, Nick Clegg, you are

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finished! We will speak to Paddy Ashdown in the second part of the

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show to speak about the Liberal Democrats. The UKIP insurgency could

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not deliver the promised earthquake, but it produced enough shock waves

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to discombobulated the established parties. They are struggling to work

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out how to deal with them. We watched it all unfold.

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Behind the scenes of any election night is intensely busy. Those in

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charge of party strategy and logistics want their people focused,

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working with purpose and rehearsed to make sure their spin on the

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results is what viewers remember and take on board. A bit of a buzz of

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activity inside the BBC's studio, kept and primed for the results.

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What this does not show due is the exterior doubles up for hospital

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dramas like Holby City, there are doorways that are mock-ups of

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accident and emergency, but the electorate will discover which of

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the parties they have put into intensive care, which ones are

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coming out of recovery and which ones are in rude health. We joined

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David Dimbleby. Good evening, welcome to the BBC's new election

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centre. When three big beasts become for on the political field, things

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have changed. Eric Pickles says we will be seen off next year, we will

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see you at Westminster! This party is going to break through next year,

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and you never know, we might even hold the balance of power. Old

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messages that gave voters in excuses to go elsewhere on the ballot paper

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exposed the older players to questions from within their ranks.

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In the hen house of the House of Commons, the fox that wants to get

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in has ruffled feathers. The reason they have had amazing success, a

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rapid rise, partly what Chuka Umunna says about being a repository, but

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they have also managed to sound like human beings, and that his Nigel

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Farage's eight victory. For some conservatives, a pact was the best

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form of defence. It would be preferable if all members of UKIP

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and voters became Tories overnight. That seems to be an ambitious

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proposition. Therefore, we need to do something that welcomes them on

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board in a slightly different way. Labour had successes, but nobody but

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they're wizards of Spain was completely buying a big success

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story. Gaffes behind the scenes and strategic errors were levelled at

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those who have managed the campaign. They have played a clever game, you

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shuffle bedecked around, and if UKIP does quite well but not well enough,

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that helps Labour get in. That kind of mindset will not win the general

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election, and we saw that in the tap ticks and strategy, and that is why,

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on our leaflets for the European elections, we chose deliberately not

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to attack UKIP, that was a bad error. Not so, so somebody who has

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been in that spotlight. If you look at the electoral maths, UKIP will

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still be aiming at the Tories in a general election. They are the

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second party in Rotherham, Labour will always hold what the room, it

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is safe, there is no point being second in a safe seat. UKIP have

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taken Castle Point, a Tory seat they will target. The question for the

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next election, can they make a challenge? The Tories will be under

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the gun from UKIP. The substance of these results is UKIP not in

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government, they do not have any MPs, they do not run a single

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Council, at dismissing them ceased to be an option. The question is,

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who will they heard most and how do you smoke the keeper's threat?

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Joining me now, day about and Patrick O'Flynn. Do you agree not

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enough was done for the elections? No, we have very good results around

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Hammersmith and Fulham, Croydon, Redbridge, and we picked off council

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wards in Haringey meaning that Lynne Featherstone and Simon Hughes worked

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on. The Ashcroft polling shows that in key marginals, we are well ahead

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and on course to win in 2015. I will be putting Mr Ashcroft's poll to

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Eric Pickles shortly. On the basis of the local elections your national

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share of the vote would be just 31%, only two points ahead of the Tories,

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only two points ahead of Gordon Brown's disastrous performance in

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2010. Why so low? National share is one thing but I am talking about

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what we are doing in the key marginals. Clearly some were taken

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away from others like Rotherham but we have got many voters back. You

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are only two points better than you were in 2010 and use of your worst

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defeat in living memory. That is the totality. What matters

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is seat by seat, that is what the Republicans found in the

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presidential elections. Patrick O'Flynn, you performed well in the

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local election but it wasn't an earthquake. It is definitely true

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that Labour did well in London but that is a double-edged sword because

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you have an increasing disconnect between the metropolis and the rest

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of the country. Our vote share was somewhat depressed not just because

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London is one of our weakest part of the country but because most of the

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warts in London were 3-member wards and we were typically only putting

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up one candidate. Even when they fared well, it still tracked down

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the projected national share. I think we did well, and what was

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particularly good was getting the target seat list becoming clear

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before our eyes. Suzanne Evans said that basically smart folk don't vote

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for UKIP. I think that is a tiny fragment of what she said. She said

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London is its own entity and is increasingly different from the rest

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of the country. One of the things that is different from London as

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opposed to Rotherham is that we have very big parties. I have a few

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thousand people in mind, Rotherham has a few hundred. People don't go

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and knock on doors and talk to people, in London we have always had

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to do that. London is full of young voters, full of ethnically diverse

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voters, that is why you are not doing well, you don't appeal to live

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there. I think London in general has a very different attitude to mass

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uncontrolled immigration. Londoners know that if an immigrant moves in

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next door to you, to use Nigel Farage's phrase, the world doesn't

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end tomorrow. People in the big cities know that, that is the point.

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What Diane Abbott is doing is try to convince London of its moral

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superiority so I am delighted... It is a simple fact that immigrants do

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not end the world if they move in next door. The economic recovery is

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getting more robust by the month, you have a seriously to ship problem

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according to many people on your own site. Maybe you're 31% of the vote

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is as good as it gets. Those who go round bitching about Ed Miliband

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have been doing that before the result. We have all polled very

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well. Ed Miliband does not polled very well. He has actually fashioned

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some really effective policies. Unemployment is tumbling, inflation

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is falling, growth is strengthening, and you have a leader who claims

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there is a cost of living crisis and he doesn't have a clue about his own

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cost of living. I think that was poor staff work. That he doesn't

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know what goes in his own shopping basket? I think his own staff could

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have prepared him for that. My point is that the numbers are looking

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better, we know that, but people don't feel better off. Then why are

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all consumer index polls better? They are feeling confident. They may

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be saying that, but people are worried about their future, their

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children's future. That is not what you buy today or tomorrow. If you

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ask people about their future and their children's future and

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prospects, they feel frightened. What will be a good result for you

:20:19.:20:24.

in the general election? We need to see Nigel Farage elected as an MP

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and he mustn't go there on his own. How many people do you think will be

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with him? Who knows, but we will have 20 to 30 target seat and if you

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put together the clusters we got in last year's County elections with

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the one we got this year, you can have a good guess at where they

:20:46.:20:50.

are. A number of people who voted for you and Thursday say they are

:20:51.:20:54.

going to back to the three main parties in general election. It

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would be foolish of me to say that they are going to stay. Some have

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said they have just lent their votes but voters hate being taken for

:21:08.:21:16.

granted. It is up to us to broaden our agenda, and build on our

:21:17.:21:24.

strengths, work on our weaknesses. Ed Miliband may have to do a deal

:21:25.:21:31.

with him. We have been here before, but the UKIP bubble is going to

:21:32.:21:36.

burst and that may happen around the time of Newark. Are you going to win

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Newark now? We are going to give it a really good crack. We love being

:21:43.:21:47.

the underdog, we don't see it as being the big goal -- the be all and

:21:48.:21:55.

end all. If you're going to get a big bounce off the elections, not to

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go and win your shows people who govern in Parliament, they don't

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vote for you. It is Labour who have given up the campaign already so we

:22:12.:22:14.

need a really big swing in our favour and we will give it a great

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crack. The bubble will burst at the Newark by-election, trust me. Have

:22:23.:22:29.

you been to Newark? Newark will see from local people... Where is it? It

:22:30.:22:38.

is outside the M25, I can tell you that. My point is that we are set

:22:39.:22:44.

for victory in 2015. I want to run this clip and get your take on it,

:22:45.:22:48.

an interview that Nigel Farage did with LBC. What they do is they have

:22:49.:22:54.

an auditor to make sure they spend their money in accordance with their

:22:55.:22:58.

rules. You say that is if there is something wrong with it. Hang on,

:22:59.:23:09.

hang on. This is Patrick O'Flynn, is this a friend in the media or a

:23:10.:23:14.

member of the political class? Do you regret doing that now? What were

:23:15.:23:23.

you doing? No, I was trying to get Nigel Farage to a more important

:23:24.:23:28.

interview with Sunday Times that had painstakingly organised. He was on

:23:29.:23:38.

there? I have told the LBC people next door that he was running over.

:23:39.:23:43.

So you interrupted a live interview and you don't regret that? No,

:23:44.:23:49.

because just between us I wasn't a massive enthusiast for that

:23:50.:23:53.

interview taking place at all. I know what James O'Brien is like and

:23:54.:23:58.

I knew it wouldn't be particularly edifying. But your boss wasn't happy

:23:59.:24:09.

with the intervention. Sometimes the boss gets shirty. We all upset our

:24:10.:24:18.

boss every now and again, but anyway you could be an MEP by this time

:24:19.:24:23.

tomorrow and you won't have to do this job any more. You can then just

:24:24.:24:28.

count your salary and your expenses. I will make the contribution my

:24:29.:24:34.

party leader asked me to, to restore Britain to being a self-governing

:24:35.:24:37.

country. Are you going to stay in the job or not? I would not be able

:24:38.:24:42.

to do the job in the same way but I would maybe have some kind of

:24:43.:24:47.

overview. We will leave it there. Yesterday Michael Ashcroft, a former

:24:48.:24:55.

deputy chairman, produced a mammoth opinion poll of more than 26,000

:24:56.:25:00.

voters in 26 marginal constituencies, crucial seat that

:25:01.:25:04.

will decide the outcome of the general election next year. In 26

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constituencies people were asked which party's candidate they would

:25:10.:25:20.

support, and Labour took a healthy 12 point lead, implying a swing of

:25:21.:25:26.

6.5% from Conservatives to Labour from the last general election. That

:25:27.:25:35.

implies Labour would topple 83 Tory MPs. The poll also shows UKIP in

:25:36.:25:43.

second place in four seats, and three of them are Labour seats.

:25:44.:25:51.

Michael Ashcroft says a quarter of those who say they would vote UKIP

:25:52.:25:56.

supported the Tories at the last election. As many as have switched

:25:57.:26:00.

from Labour and the Lib Dems combined.

:26:01.:26:04.

The communities Secretary Eric Pickles joins me now. The Ashcroft

:26:05.:26:11.

Paul that gives Labour a massive 12 point lead in the crucial marginal

:26:12.:26:16.

constituencies, you would lose 83 MPs if this was repeated in an

:26:17.:26:20.

election. It doesn't get worse than that, does it? Yesterday I went

:26:21.:26:28.

through that Paul in great detail, and what it shows is that in a

:26:29.:26:32.

number of key seats we are ahead, and somewhere behind, and I think is

:26:33.:26:39.

Michael rightly shows... You are behind in most of them. This is a

:26:40.:26:43.

snapshot and we have a year in which the economy is going to be

:26:44.:26:47.

improving, and we have a year to say to those candidates that are

:26:48.:26:52.

fighting those key seats, look, just around the corner people are ahead

:26:53.:26:56.

in the same kind of seat as you and we need to redouble our efforts. The

:26:57.:27:04.

Tory brand is dying in major parts of the country, you are the walking

:27:05.:27:08.

dead in Scotland, and now London, huge chunks of London are becoming a

:27:09.:27:12.

no-go zone for you. That's not true with regard to the northern seats.

:27:13.:27:22.

Tell me what seats you have? In terms of councillors we are the

:27:23.:27:28.

largest party in local government. After four years in power... You are

:27:29.:27:32.

smiling but no political party has ever done that. You haven't got a

:27:33.:27:39.

single councillor in the great city of Manchester. We have councillors

:27:40.:27:46.

in Bradford and Leeds, we have more... You haven't got an MP in any

:27:47.:27:51.

of the big cities? We have more councillors in the north of England

:27:52.:27:56.

than Labour. A quarter of those who say they would vote UKIP and did

:27:57.:28:00.

vote UKIP supported the Tories at the last election. Why are so many

:28:01.:28:05.

of your 2010 voters now so disillusioned? Any election will

:28:06.:28:10.

bring a degree of churning, and we hope to get as many back as we can,

:28:11.:28:15.

but we also want to get Liberal Democrats, people who voted for the

:28:16.:28:21.

Lib Dems and the Labour Party. If we concentrate on one part of the

:28:22.:28:26.

electorate, then we won't take power and I believe we will because I

:28:27.:28:31.

believe we represent a wide spectrum of opinion in this country and I

:28:32.:28:36.

believe that delivering a long-term economic plan, delivering prosperity

:28:37.:28:40.

into people 's pockets will be felt. On the basis of the local election

:28:41.:28:44.

results, you would not pick up a single Labour seat in the general

:28:45.:28:50.

election. You make the point that it is about local elections. Seats that

:28:51.:28:56.

Labour should have taken from us they didn't, which is important... I

:28:57.:29:04.

am asking what possible Labour seat you would hope to win after the

:29:05.:29:10.

results on Thursday. Local elections are local elections. The national

:29:11.:29:13.

election will have a much bigger turnout, it will be one year from

:29:14.:29:18.

now, we will be able to demonstrate to the population that the trends we

:29:19.:29:23.

are seeing already in terms of the success of our long-term economic

:29:24.:29:28.

plan, they will be feeling that in their pockets. People need to feel

:29:29.:29:33.

secure about their jobs and feel that their children have a future.

:29:34.:29:38.

Maybe so many of your people are defecting to UKIP because on issues

:29:39.:29:41.

that they really care about like mass immigration, you don't keep

:29:42.:29:50.

your promises. We have reduced immigration and the

:29:51.:29:56.

amount of pull factors. Let me give you the figures. You have said a

:29:57.:30:03.

couple of things are not true. You promised to cut net immigration to

:30:04.:30:07.

under 100,000 by 2015, last year it rose by 50,000, 212,000. You have

:30:08.:30:16.

broken your promise. We still intend to reduce the amount from non-EU

:30:17.:30:22.

countries. I want to be clear, I have no problem with people coming

:30:23.:30:26.

here who want to work and pay their national insurance and tax, to help

:30:27.:30:33.

fund the health service. What I have objection to our people coming here

:30:34.:30:36.

to get the additional benefits. You made the promise. It is our

:30:37.:30:43.

intention to deliver it. People defect to UKIP because mainstream

:30:44.:30:50.

politicians to -- like yourself do not give straight answers. Can you

:30:51.:30:55.

be straight, you will not hit your immigration target by the election,

:30:56.:30:59.

correct? We will announce measures that. People factor. Will you hit

:31:00.:31:07.

your target? It is a year from now, it is our intention to move towards

:31:08.:31:13.

the target. Is it your intention, do you say you will hit your target of

:31:14.:31:18.

under 100,000 net migration by the election? We will do our damnedest.

:31:19.:31:25.

But you will not make it. I do not know that to be fact. They also vote

:31:26.:31:29.

UKIP cos they do not trust you and Europe, David Cameron has promised a

:31:30.:31:36.

referendum, he has vowed to resign if he does not deliver one, but

:31:37.:31:41.

still your voters vote for UKIP. There were reasons why people voted

:31:42.:31:46.

for UKIP. A great deal of anger about the political system, about

:31:47.:31:53.

the Metropolitan elite that they see running programmes like this and the

:31:54.:31:59.

political programmes. We need to listen to their concerns and address

:32:00.:32:04.

them. David Cameron has got a better record on delivery. He vetoed a

:32:05.:32:11.

treaty, he stopped us having to bail out the currency. Why are you likely

:32:12.:32:17.

to convert a night in the European elections? If you do come third, it

:32:18.:32:23.

will show they do not trust you on Europe. Next year, we will face a

:32:24.:32:31.

general election, about having money in people's pockets, about who will

:32:32.:32:36.

run the country. David Davis wants to China and get the voters to trust

:32:37.:32:42.

the Tories on the referendum, he was the pledge to be brought forward to

:32:43.:32:49.

2016. He is a clever guy. But if you are going to try to negotiate a

:32:50.:32:52.

better deal to give the population a better choice, you cannot do that in

:32:53.:32:59.

a year, you will require two years. You are an Essex MP, you know about

:33:00.:33:05.

Essex people, it must be depressing that they are now voting for UKIP. I

:33:06.:33:12.

do not have any UKIP in my constituency. I felt bad to see

:33:13.:33:17.

Basildon go down and to see the leader go down. Do you know why that

:33:18.:33:25.

is? The Tory party does not resonate with the Essex people in the way

:33:26.:33:29.

that the Margaret Thatcher party did. That is why you did not get a

:33:30.:33:34.

majority in 2010 and why you will not win in 2015. We need to connect

:33:35.:33:42.

better. They will want to know about their children's future, will they

:33:43.:33:47.

have a job, a good education? When it comes to electing a national

:33:48.:33:51.

government, they do not want to see Ed Miliband in office. They are

:33:52.:33:57.

voting for Nigel Farage. In terms of what government you get, do you want

:33:58.:34:02.

to see David Cameron in number ten or Ed Miliband? Essex will want to

:34:03.:34:09.

see David Cameron. You only got 36% of the vote four years ago, your

:34:10.:34:15.

party, occurs you did not get the Essex people in the same numbers,

:34:16.:34:19.

like John Major or Margaret Thatcher did. You need more than 36% in 2015

:34:20.:34:27.

to win the election. On Thursday, your share was 29%. We were 2%

:34:28.:34:33.

behind Labour. They did not do very well either. A year before, -- a

:34:34.:34:42.

year before the election in 1997, they were on 43%. It is highly

:34:43.:34:48.

deliver the votes. We have a campaign looking at the marginals.

:34:49.:34:53.

We know exactly where we are not doing as well as we should be. I am

:34:54.:34:59.

a big fan of Michael Ashcroft. Do you think he does this to be

:35:00.:35:03.

helpful? He is a great man and a good conservative, I am a good

:35:04.:35:09.

friend of his. I think that his publication was one of the best

:35:10.:35:12.

things that happened to the party. You got 36% of the vote last time,

:35:13.:35:20.

you are down to 29, you need 38 or 39, you would get that if you had a

:35:21.:35:26.

pact with UKIP. There will be no pact. I am a Democrat. It is like a

:35:27.:35:33.

market stall, you should put your policies out there and you should

:35:34.:35:38.

not try to fix the market. Would you stop a local pact? There will be no

:35:39.:35:49.

pact with UKIP. None. It has just gone 11:35am. We say

:35:50.:35:54.

goodbye to viewers in Scotland and Northern Ireland.

:35:55.:35:59.

Coming up here, we will speak to the Liberal Democrat election

:36:00.:36:03.

I'm Julia George and this is the coordinator Paddy Ashdown. First,

:36:04.:36:16.

I'm Julia George and this is the Sunday Politics in the South East.

:36:17.:36:20.

Coming up later, billions of barrels of shale oil ARE under the ground

:36:21.:36:24.

across southern England ` so as Ministers prepare plans to allow

:36:25.:36:27.

energy companies to frack under homes without owners' permission `

:36:28.:36:30.

we ask just how WILL it go down in the Tory heartlands? But first, the

:36:31.:36:34.

election fever is over, and the results are in ` for the local

:36:35.:36:40.

elections at least. The votes were counted well into the next day, but

:36:41.:36:47.

who were the winners and losers? Elation for Labour in Crawley, a

:36:48.:36:51.

town that is also a key parliamentary target. They won four

:36:52.:36:56.

seats from the Conservatives, taken control of the Council for the first

:36:57.:37:00.

time in eight years. Crawley is a crucial win for Labour as it looks

:37:01.:37:04.

to make an impact in the south`east in the general election. The new

:37:05.:37:07.

council leader is one of the youngest in the country at 27. We

:37:08.:37:14.

had a great result, better than expectations, we picked up all the

:37:15.:37:19.

seats we needed to take control. We had a decisive result that people

:37:20.:37:23.

wanted change. Labour is the change they need to vote for nationally

:37:24.:37:29.

next year. Success for Labour also in Hastings, where the party

:37:30.:37:32.

consolidated its position and gained a seat from the Tories. UKIP

:37:33.:37:36.

surrendered their only counsellor to the Conservatives. Overall, our boat

:37:37.:37:43.

is up and in the seats we were looking to hold, the majorities have

:37:44.:37:48.

been up. In Maidstone, the Conservatives lost overall control.

:37:49.:37:52.

UKIP snatched four bottle seats to deprive them of their majority. They

:37:53.:37:58.

don't like Europe, they have concerns about immigration, those

:37:59.:38:02.

pick up with stop when it comes to a pick up with stop when it comes to a

:38:03.:38:08.

general election, I am sure that the UKIP bubble will burst significantly

:38:09.:38:14.

and dramatically. But UKIP disagrees that its success is purely based on

:38:15.:38:20.

protest votes. Most Labour but I'll protest against the Conservatives

:38:21.:38:25.

and vice versa. There are a few voters who are positively embracing

:38:26.:38:30.

with the other parties stand for because they don't stand for

:38:31.:38:32.

anything that resonates with the British public. The Lib Dems in

:38:33.:38:39.

Maidstone had hoped to make gains. They still have 19 seats on a hung

:38:40.:38:45.

council. We are breathing down the Conservatives straight. They lost

:38:46.:38:48.

control of the Council, everybody now ringing us up asking if they can

:38:49.:38:54.

do a deal with us. So we are on the rise here. The Conservatives have

:38:55.:38:57.

been a bit with us. So we are on the rise here. The Conservatives have

:38:58.:38:59.

been of literate in Maidstone. In West Sussex, UKIP added five seats

:39:00.:39:05.

to their tally. It wasn't enough to trouble the Conservatives who remain

:39:06.:39:08.

in power. And the Conservatives stood firm in Worthing with other

:39:09.:39:14.

victories in other Surrey districts and in Tunbridge Wells, where they

:39:15.:39:19.

increased their hold on the borough. I feel elated because we went into

:39:20.:39:23.

this election with some trepidation but we have actually come out with

:39:24.:39:27.

one extra seat, that is a demonstration that the policies we

:39:28.:39:30.

have been putting forward over the last two years have resonated with

:39:31.:39:35.

the general public. This is how it looks across the region:

:39:36.:39:56.

with less than 30% of district and borough councils in contention,

:39:57.:40:03.

these elections were never going to transform the political map in the

:40:04.:40:07.

south`east. But they do tap into the public mood ahead of next year 's

:40:08.:40:12.

general election. These results will now be scrutinised by each party as

:40:13.:40:16.

they set about campaigning for parliamentary dominance next year.

:40:17.:40:20.

UKIP will be hoping they can build on their local council successes and

:40:21.:40:29.

make it to Westminster. So what can we learn from those results `

:40:30.:40:32.

joining me here is the South East Political Editor, Louise Stewart.

:40:33.:40:35.

What can we learn from Thursday's local election results? It is

:40:36.:40:38.

significant that the Tories lost control of two of their councils, in

:40:39.:40:43.

Maidstone, and in Crawley, that is the significant one because it is a

:40:44.:40:47.

bellwether seat and there was a huge push there by Labour. They launched

:40:48.:40:52.

their south`east campaigned there, Ed Miliband has been down there

:40:53.:40:55.

about three times in the last six months. But nationally, it is number

:40:56.:41:01.

92 on their target list and what the new leader there was saying to me

:41:02.:41:05.

is, if we can take this in the general election, we have already

:41:06.:41:10.

got a majority by that stage. As you know, you can't extrapolate from

:41:11.:41:13.

these elections what will happen next year, because the election is

:41:14.:41:19.

being held on a small number of councils and wards but I do think

:41:20.:41:23.

that Labour did pretty well. I don't think the Conservatives did maybe as

:41:24.:41:26.

badly as might have been expected at this stage in the political cycle. I

:41:27.:41:30.

don't think UKIP created the political earthquake we expected.

:41:31.:41:36.

They are considered to have a heartland in the south`east, a lot

:41:37.:41:39.

of people think Nigel Farage will stand in Kent. There were ambitions

:41:40.:41:44.

for maybe five seat in Tunbridge Wells, they have disappointed a bit

:41:45.:41:49.

in the south`east? You wouldn't know that from his reaction, he says he

:41:50.:41:53.

is delighted with how they did in Kent and Sussex. They didn't get any

:41:54.:41:59.

steeped in Tunbridge Wells. They did do well in Maidstone, they took four

:42:00.:42:03.

wards that in Hastings they were kicked of the council altogether.

:42:04.:42:07.

They didn't cause the political earthquake they predicted but they

:42:08.:42:12.

came second in lots of places, second in vote share in Tunbridge

:42:13.:42:15.

Wells and first past the post doesn't suit the smaller parties.

:42:16.:42:19.

Different system for the European Parliament. Thank you very much.

:42:20.:42:26.

Now, if you'd like more political analysis like that, Louise Stewart

:42:27.:42:29.

blogs on the BBC Sussex, Kent and Surrey websites.

:42:30.:42:35.

And so, joining me now to talk about those election results, we have a

:42:36.:42:41.

full studio ` all of whom have a particular interest in those

:42:42.:42:47.

results. Jeremy Birch is the Labour leader of Hastings Council where, as

:42:48.:42:51.

we heard Labour kept control. Tim Loughton, Conservative MP for East

:42:52.:42:54.

Worthing and Shoreham ` Worthing council was held by the

:42:55.:42:56.

Conservatives; Liberal Democrat PPC James MacCleary who will be standing

:42:57.:42:59.

in Tunbridge Wells at the General Election ` where his party lost two

:43:00.:43:04.

seats and by Diane James ` a UKIP candidate for the European Elections

:43:05.:43:07.

and a local councillor in Surrey. Welcome to one and all. Jeremy,

:43:08.:43:13.

thrilled I'm sure to hold onto Hastings and great news for Labour

:43:14.:43:17.

in Crawley, but if you get net gains in the south`east, UKIP top the

:43:18.:43:21.

table. That's not success at this stage be committed? If you look

:43:22.:43:28.

nationally... This is the south`east, I will get you to talk

:43:29.:43:31.

about the south`east. You have to look at the seats, there were no

:43:32.:43:38.

seats up in many of the Kent towns, nun in Brighton, none in a number of

:43:39.:43:44.

areas Labour would have made gains. A satisfied with coming second to

:43:45.:43:49.

UKIP? I think the south`east is doing as well as we can expect and

:43:50.:43:52.

we are on course for Labour to at least be the largest party in the

:43:53.:43:57.

general election next year. If you read Lord Ashcroft's poll, the most

:43:58.:44:02.

significant margin seeds, Labour win all but one of them. South Thanet,

:44:03.:44:09.

it is possibly where much of Farage will stand. He described one loss as

:44:10.:44:14.

a triumph against bigotry, that anti`UKIP languages and helpful at

:44:15.:44:19.

this stage, is it? Are the one in five people in the south`east to

:44:20.:44:23.

voted in the local elections, are they bigots? I was speaking about

:44:24.:44:28.

the UKIP candidate standing against me, the seat where the mosque in

:44:29.:44:34.

Hastings is located, who made some very unpleasant comments about our

:44:35.:44:40.

Muslim community, and is questionably showing anti`Semitic

:44:41.:44:43.

views as well. UKIP have backed him up but as the Daily Mail showed,

:44:44.:44:45.

this is not the sort of person I think should be in public office.

:44:46.:44:50.

George Osborne says he respects Nigel Farage, anyone else around

:44:51.:44:58.

here? You would be stupid not to. UKIP have put on a lot of games,

:44:59.:45:03.

Nigel Farage getting a huge amount of publicity, it would be stupid not

:45:04.:45:08.

to take notice of him. So that means what this stage, they are now the

:45:09.:45:14.

official opposition in some places, are you tend to make a pact with

:45:15.:45:20.

them? No, we are the incentive party, we will stand at the next

:45:21.:45:24.

election as the Conservative Party. `` Conservative parties. I don't

:45:25.:45:28.

think there will be any UKIP MPs to do a pact with anyway. You have lost

:45:29.:45:35.

overall control in several errors, UKIP are becoming a solid force in

:45:36.:45:38.

the south`east, you will lose MPs to them next year, surely. I don't

:45:39.:45:44.

thing set. If you look at Mike constituency, where UKIP picked up

:45:45.:45:49.

four seats, we were defending 13 out of 15 seats, and where UKIP one, the

:45:50.:45:57.

Labour vote collapse. In one seat, Labour came forth and our boat went

:45:58.:46:02.

up, substantially in some cases. Our boat share is well up on last year.

:46:03.:46:07.

We lost to UKIP where we did because of the weakness of Labour and the

:46:08.:46:11.

Lib Dems. Labour needs to be doing much better. The Lord Ashcroft poll

:46:12.:46:17.

puts a 3`way marginal seat, South Thanet, everyone is expecting Nigel

:46:18.:46:22.

Farage to stand there, that is one seat that surely the Conservatives

:46:23.:46:28.

are going to win. You won't even have an incumbent MP. The

:46:29.:46:31.

Conservatives will lose that? Everybody said he would win last

:46:32.:46:38.

year and he came and miserable third. But you have seven out of

:46:39.:46:44.

eight councillors who are UKIP in Thanet, that is their heartland in

:46:45.:46:49.

the south`east. Yes, but a general election will be different. It is

:46:50.:46:54.

interesting about the optimism, it is only UKIP that seemed to be

:46:55.:46:58.

gloomy about the economy and the world generally, there is a good

:46:59.:47:01.

deal of optimism among conservatives, Lib Dem and

:47:02.:47:04.

particularly Labour voters as well. When we come to a general election,

:47:05.:47:09.

we're talking about positive things, jobs, investment and growth in the

:47:10.:47:13.

economy and stop what we want to see in schools, the NHS. All we have

:47:14.:47:18.

heard from UKIP in this election is negative stuff. Let's see what Diane

:47:19.:47:26.

Jones has to say. UKIP only secured ten seats in the south`east out of

:47:27.:47:32.

60, that is not an earthquake. It is not an earthquake. But it is a very

:47:33.:47:38.

good result. They are in mind with virtually no repetition in the

:47:39.:47:41.

south`east, it is about as Navy blue in the country... That is simply not

:47:42.:47:47.

true, last year Nigel Farage said he was stunned when UKIP came from

:47:48.:47:51.

nowhere to win 17 seats and Kent County Council, you get better last

:47:52.:47:56.

year than this year. You are factoring in the London effect,

:47:57.:47:58.

where we have already admitted we have a lot of work to do. If you

:47:59.:48:03.

look at the south`east on its own, it is the bridgehead that Nigel

:48:04.:48:08.

Farage announced he wanted to form. But it is not as good as last year.

:48:09.:48:16.

But it is still very good. We have made Maidstone a no overall control

:48:17.:48:19.

authority, we have taken a consistent number of second

:48:20.:48:24.

positions. 23% of the vote in Tunbridge Wells, we are number two.

:48:25.:48:27.

That is the most amazing result when you think we have come from

:48:28.:48:31.

absolutely nowhere to achieve that. I accept we could have done better

:48:32.:48:36.

but in terms of the shock that it has sent in Tory heartlands of the

:48:37.:48:39.

south`east, I think is a good result indeed. Mixed results for the

:48:40.:48:45.

Liberal Democrats. In Maidstone, you have survived the national rout but

:48:46.:48:49.

not good news elsewhere in the south`east. You mentioned Maidstone,

:48:50.:48:54.

with but the trend in Maidstone when you look at the vote share in the

:48:55.:48:59.

city would see, we actually won the election overall, that is a

:49:00.:49:02.

fantastic stepping stone for us because Maidstone is a key target

:49:03.:49:05.

for us for next year's general election. So far from surviving a

:49:06.:49:11.

rout, we have bucked the trend. Let's talk about Tunbridge Wells.

:49:12.:49:15.

The Liberal Democrats are left with just three seats there. Tunbridge

:49:16.:49:19.

Wells has to be one of the safest Conservative seats in the country,

:49:20.:49:23.

presumably you're not giving up the day job yet? I am not, but then most

:49:24.:49:28.

parliamentary candidates don't give up their day jobs! What we are

:49:29.:49:34.

emphasising is what we have been doing for several months, the

:49:35.:49:37.

Liberal Democrats are about community politics and getting on

:49:38.:49:42.

the ground and making changes. We will get action on this cinema site,

:49:43.:49:47.

it has been sat there watching the 13 years. Within months, we have a

:49:48.:49:54.

petition of 9000 people... Last time I looked out of the window, it is

:49:55.:49:59.

still there! We have only had a few months and we have got movement

:50:00.:50:05.

already. Many think it is time for a change of leadership, is it time for

:50:06.:50:10.

Nick Clegg to go? I don't think so. I think we have to stay the course

:50:11.:50:14.

with our leader, took us into coalition, first we have been in

:50:15.:50:17.

government for 100 years and he deserves our support. Let's go onto

:50:18.:50:25.

a big story, there are legions of barrels of oil under our feet in

:50:26.:50:30.

Surrey, Sussex and Kent. According to a British Geological Survey. And

:50:31.:50:33.

you know what that means. Fracking is back on the agenda. The

:50:34.:50:37.

government is keen to do all it can to encourage companies to explore

:50:38.:50:40.

these reserves of shale oil. Here's the Energy Minister and MP for

:50:41.:50:43.

Sevenoaks Michael Fallon. People in Kent and Sussex have always known

:50:44.:50:48.

that there is oil there, there are 13 oil wells producing oil at the

:50:49.:50:52.

moment across the wheeled base, and they have been doing so here since

:50:53.:50:57.

the Second World War. They will only be more of it if it is properly

:50:58.:51:01.

licensed and properly proved locally but we now have a better estimate of

:51:02.:51:05.

how much oil is down there and it would be wrong in the inch to

:51:06.:51:09.

national energy security to ignore the potential for extracting more

:51:10.:51:14.

home`grown energy here rather than importing oil from unrivalled parts

:51:15.:51:18.

of the world. The Government have offered money to communities who

:51:19.:51:21.

allow exploratory drilling ` Greenpeace have called it a "bungs

:51:22.:51:24.

and bulldozers approach" and nobody yet knows how easy it will be to

:51:25.:51:31.

extract the shale oil. Michael Fallon is being disingenuous, isn't

:51:32.:51:36.

he, implying that the rush for shale oil is just a continuation of what

:51:37.:51:41.

we have already seen? There has been no high`pressure hydraulic

:51:42.:51:44.

fracturing in the south`east. This is new and very different and very

:51:45.:51:50.

sensitive. It is sensitive because people aren't familiar with shale

:51:51.:51:54.

oil, if we take somewhere like book, there has been drilling for oil on

:51:55.:52:00.

that site, most people didn't know about it, since lodging 86. But not

:52:01.:52:12.

fracking. Fracking is a different version of the same thing. Which

:52:13.:52:18.

involves a huge amount of water, involves chemicals, people's fears

:52:19.:52:22.

about contamination and overuse of water. You can't portray it as a

:52:23.:52:27.

continuation of what's going on. We need to have a big debate and public

:52:28.:52:33.

education exercise on this. You have just said it uses a huge amount of

:52:34.:52:38.

water, my understanding is it will use less water... Do you know where

:52:39.:52:45.

that quote comes from? Comes directly from patrolling company's

:52:46.:52:52.

press release. And yet the Department for energy and climate

:52:53.:52:56.

change is using it as though it is a fact. It is if everyone is picking

:52:57.:53:01.

up on. What people write to me about, not many have, but they worry

:53:02.:53:05.

if they will could be contamination of water? A perfectly reasonable

:53:06.:53:12.

concern. But most fracking wells will be as far down as Ben Nevis is

:53:13.:53:18.

high. It needs to be done properly, it needs to be properly licensed,

:53:19.:53:23.

scrutiny from the county councils, Environment Agency, but we would be

:53:24.:53:27.

crazy to ignore what is a source of energy for this country which we

:53:28.:53:30.

desperately need as part of a mixed economy. We so have the largest wind

:53:31.:53:35.

farm off the coast of my constituency. This is becoming an

:53:36.:53:42.

increasingly unpopular Tory policy, we are seeing support for fracking

:53:43.:53:49.

falling from 52% to 41%. Wouldn't it be better to to distance yourself

:53:50.:53:58.

from fracking? Personally, I have always disagreed with fracking, and

:53:59.:54:01.

it is a short`term missed approach and it is the wrong emphasis for our

:54:02.:54:05.

energy policy. I think we should invest in renewables and

:54:06.:54:12.

incentivised energy companies. So you disagree with it they be?

:54:13.:54:21.

Absolutely, I always have done. Your leader describes fracking is a

:54:22.:54:24.

God`given opportunity for the south`east, is that sensible

:54:25.:54:30.

politically, is it a vote winner? Lets put into context, the

:54:31.:54:33.

Conservative Party have claimed that the party political book will be

:54:34.:54:36.

used to whip their elected councillors at every political whip.

:54:37.:54:44.

The UK position on this is very clear. Local referenda, so

:54:45.:54:49.

individual communities can decide whether they support it or oppose it

:54:50.:54:54.

and that voice will be listened to. No elected UKIP councillor, despite

:54:55.:54:59.

a policy statement from Nigel Farage supporting it, no elected

:55:00.:55:06.

councillor, UKIP MP, will go against that. In context, let's put the

:55:07.:55:14.

statement in context, it was to do about security of energy supply.

:55:15.:55:20.

What we have also said is if we were not a member of the EU, we would not

:55:21.:55:23.

have to be following the ridiculous diktats... Hold on, France has

:55:24.:55:29.

banned fracking already. You can't blame the EU for this. France has

:55:30.:55:33.

banned fracking. You can make your own decisions. Wouldn't it be nice

:55:34.:55:40.

if David Cameron would ban fracking? Are you for it or against it? I want

:55:41.:55:49.

to see local communities... You must have an opinion. I don't know the

:55:50.:55:58.

full argument. You can't have your cake and eat it. You can't have your

:55:59.:56:03.

energy and security and eat it, you need to have a policy. You want

:56:04.:56:10.

lower energy bills but Labour seems hesitant to commit fully to a probe

:56:11.:56:18.

fracking policy, why? The idea that the South Downs National Park as the

:56:19.:56:23.

new Texas is frankly ridiculous. Interesting that Romania and

:56:24.:56:26.

Bulgaria have banned fracking, perhaps UKIP can make a visit to

:56:27.:56:31.

check out what is going on! I think we want a proper national debate and

:56:32.:56:34.

I wouldn't leave it to the government who have already made up

:56:35.:56:38.

their opinion, and tried to bribe local communities to accept it.

:56:39.:56:41.

Let's have a real debate about the benefits. And let's have a real

:56:42.:56:50.

debate about the not benefits. Tim is being blase about the impacts

:56:51.:56:55.

this could have on the water table. This is a big issue for the

:56:56.:56:59.

south`east. If you look at the amount of oil that could be

:57:00.:57:03.

extracted, it is very small, but 0.5% of North Sea oil reserves. Is

:57:04.:57:10.

this a storm in a teacup? Jeremy, your position, do you know yet? We

:57:11.:57:17.

want a proper and informed debate, not a government led debate. Are you

:57:18.:57:24.

pro`or anti`fracking? I have given my answer, I think. We will leave it

:57:25.:57:33.

there. Now it's time for some other political stories you might have

:57:34.:57:36.

missed this week ` James Fitzgerald has them in Sixty Seconds.

:57:37.:57:45.

And Barnes has taken part in the document tree which profiles her

:57:46.:57:50.

life as Kent's police and crime commission. P P C. Sorry, try that

:57:51.:58:03.

again. She said she did say to demonstrate she is open and

:58:04.:58:06.

transparent but her involvement was criticised by a police scrutiny

:58:07.:58:11.

panel. It brings the whole force into disrepute and I feel sorry for

:58:12.:58:14.

Kent Police. Southeastern says it has paid ?1.5 million in

:58:15.:58:21.

compensation to those inconvenienced this winter by landslips which

:58:22.:58:23.

closed the main line into east Sussex. Seven than it beaches were

:58:24.:58:30.

committed with a blue flag cleanliness award only for some of

:58:31.:58:33.

them to be flooded with Cilic next day. `` Cilic. I am disgusted with

:58:34.:58:42.

it. The business is all the way along the coastline.

:58:43.:58:46.

That's all we've got time for from the South East this week ` my thanks

:58:47.:58:55.

to all our guests. Parliament's not sitting next week so neither are we

:58:56.:58:59.

` but there's full coverage on BBC One of the European election results

:59:00.:59:00.

which are announced this evening. deported. We should also review the

:59:01.:59:08.

benefits system to make it contributory. Thank you. With that,

:59:09.:59:11.

back to you, Andrew. Welcome back. Mutterings among Lib

:59:12.:59:23.

Dems about Nick Clegg's leaderships, as we reported at the top of the

:59:24.:59:28.

show, and tonight it could get even worse when we get the results of the

:59:29.:59:33.

European elections. Paddy Ashdown, former Lib Dem leader, joins me now

:59:34.:59:38.

from our Westminster studio. Something has to change for the Lib

:59:39.:59:42.

Dems, if Nick Clegg isn't the change what will it be? The messages we

:59:43.:59:50.

have about reducing tax on the poorest, they now have traction. We

:59:51.:00:02.

have been on many programmes of this sort before, this idea that has been

:00:03.:00:08.

put about by these people who are calling for a leadership election is

:00:09.:00:12.

the silliest idea I have heard in my political career. It is not serious

:00:13.:00:17.

politics. This is the moment when we need to get out with a really good

:00:18.:00:21.

message and campaign through the summer in the context of the general

:00:22.:00:27.

election. Spending it on a divisive leadership contest is ridiculous. At

:00:28.:00:35.

the very moment when our sacrifices are beginning to gain traction, we

:00:36.:00:44.

turn in on ourselves. The question is, can the Liberal Democrats hack

:00:45.:00:49.

being in government? If we were to take this step, the anther would be

:00:50.:00:55.

no, and that would damage the party forever. It is clearly a problem,

:00:56.:01:00.

you have had to come out and defend Nick Clegg, we have not even had the

:01:01.:01:05.

European election results yet. It could get even worse by midnight. I

:01:06.:01:12.

have been up here anyway, to argue the party's case in the context of

:01:13.:01:16.

tonight. Let me try to put this in scale. We have a website which

:01:17.:01:25.

people can join to show their ascent to the fact that they like cake, it

:01:26.:01:30.

is called Liberal Democrats like cake, it has more people signed up

:01:31.:01:35.

than this website that is calling for a leadership election. Something

:01:36.:01:42.

like 200, of course this happens from time to time, the wonder is you

:01:43.:01:48.

are talking -- you are taking it seriously. Your colleagues are

:01:49.:01:51.

taking it seriously, including sitting MPs. People trot out a list

:01:52.:01:57.

of achievements that the party would like to be associated with, he began

:01:58.:02:02.

doing just that, but you have been doing that for months, if not for

:02:03.:02:08.

over a year, your ratings in the polls are terrible, you had a

:02:09.:02:13.

terrible local election, and you will probably have a terrible

:02:14.:02:16.

European election. It will cut through much better in the context

:02:17.:02:21.

of an election, we have been talking about the European elections. We

:02:22.:02:25.

have been here a long time, let me take you back, we have had tough

:02:26.:02:33.

times, in 1989, we came last in every constituency in Britain, save

:02:34.:02:39.

one, behind the Green party. One or two voices said, you have got to

:02:40.:02:46.

ditch the leader, me, you had one of them on earlier, John Hemmings, as I

:02:47.:02:51.

recall. One or two said we had to change course, but we stood our

:02:52.:02:55.

ground, and in the general election we not only re-established our

:02:56.:02:58.

position from a base of almost nothing, we laid the basis and

:02:59.:03:05.

foundation for doubling our seats in 1997. That is what the party can do,

:03:06.:03:10.

they have a great message, and insert of wasting the summer and

:03:11.:03:18.

autumn on a leadership contest, we should be doing that. Nick Clegg had

:03:19.:03:24.

two opportunities to put part of that message across in the debate

:03:25.:03:30.

over Europe, but the party poll ratings fell after that. What Nick

:03:31.:03:35.

elected us to try to fill a vacuum of antique European rhetoric. And he

:03:36.:03:44.

lost. He could not change the best part of a generation of

:03:45.:03:49.

anti-European propaganda in a couple of performances? He lost the second

:03:50.:03:53.

debate more than the first. It is a long-term programme. Nick Clegg had

:03:54.:03:59.

the courage to take us into government. He took that decision

:04:00.:04:07.

before the party and gained 75, 80% support in a democratic vote. He has

:04:08.:04:12.

led the party with outstanding judgement. He has showed almost

:04:13.:04:20.

incredible grace under fire, being attacked from all sides, because

:04:21.:04:23.

some people hate the coalition, and he has the courage to do what no

:04:24.:04:28.

other Liberal Democrat leader has done, to stand up before the British

:04:29.:04:32.

people and say unequivocally, we are in favour of Europe. He is a man of

:04:33.:04:41.

courage, integrity, decency, he is one of the best prime ministers

:04:42.:04:46.

Britain has not got. In the context of a general election, that will go

:04:47.:04:51.

through. I am devoted to the man, he can do amazingly well in the general

:04:52.:04:55.

election. But he is losing local elections again and again, the

:04:56.:05:00.

European elections, and he is on track to lose the general election.

:05:01.:05:03.

European elections are not easy for us. Whatever happens tomorrow

:05:04.:05:10.

morning, it will not be bad -- as bad as 1989. We have had that line.

:05:11.:05:18.

In the context of a general election, we fought our way back,

:05:19.:05:24.

this time, we have been in government, we start from a higher

:05:25.:05:28.

base, we have a message to tell about how we alone have taken the

:05:29.:05:31.

tough decisions to get this country out of the worst economic mess it

:05:32.:05:36.

has ever seen, left to us by the Labour Party. We can go out in the

:05:37.:05:40.

context of a general election and fight for that. My guess is that the

:05:41.:05:45.

resurgence of the party in the context of a general election will

:05:46.:05:50.

be far greater than you are suggesting.

:05:51.:05:57.

We have done the Liberal Democrats, that move onto the other parties.

:05:58.:06:04.

How bad a leadership problem does Ed Miliband have? He has a continuation

:06:05.:06:08.

of a problem he has had for a long time. The Labour Party thought they

:06:09.:06:14.

had a soft lead, and they have the same situation, everybody is hanging

:06:15.:06:18.

on. They have to make a breakthrough. The big thing is that

:06:19.:06:21.

lots of people at Shadow Cabinet wish they had taken on UKIP, why was

:06:22.:06:28.

Labour turning its fire on the Liberal Democrats? They should have

:06:29.:06:33.

been taking on UKIP, and UKIP taken seats from them, such as in

:06:34.:06:39.

Rotherham. They have finally woken up. I think there is a class war

:06:40.:06:44.

breaking out, the northerners have taken against Ed Miliband and the

:06:45.:06:48.

Metropolitan sophisticates around them... One Labour MP has said, we

:06:49.:06:54.

do not want these guacamole eating people from North London! A number

:06:55.:07:02.

doing that. They wanted to take the fight to UKIP, because UKIP is

:07:03.:07:07.

getting working-class, Northern Labour votes. John Mann said it was

:07:08.:07:13.

ridiculous that the Labour Party did not put posters in the North of

:07:14.:07:17.

England to say that Nigel Farage regarded Margaret Thatcher as his

:07:18.:07:23.

heroine. But in a funny way, those Northern Labour MPs are speaking for

:07:24.:07:28.

the South, because the Labour Party will only win the general election

:07:29.:07:32.

if it takes back those seats in the south, the south-east, a couple of

:07:33.:07:35.

seats in the south-west that Tony Blair in 1997, and they acknowledge

:07:36.:07:42.

that. It is important to say they did win the local elections, they

:07:43.:07:50.

got 31%, but that was only to bustle -- two points hang-up the

:07:51.:07:55.

Conservatives. Neil Kinnock got 38% in 1991, the year before John Major

:07:56.:08:00.

got the largest in of votes ever. There is unease in the shadow

:08:01.:08:05.

cabinet about why Ed Miliband did not take on UKIP on immigration

:08:06.:08:10.

earlier. But Ed Miliband says, we should not be calling UKIP names, we

:08:11.:08:15.

should be calling them out, and he would say he did call them out. The

:08:16.:08:19.

unease in the party has made the results worse for them than they

:08:20.:08:23.

should have been, they did pretty well on Thursday. Although UKIP took

:08:24.:08:29.

votes from them in safe seats, in the end, it will not make much

:08:30.:08:35.

difference. UKIP is taking votes from Tories in marginals. It made it

:08:36.:08:41.

appear that Labour have not done well. Diane Abbott was right, a lot

:08:42.:08:46.

of the Labour MPs who came out on Friday morning had been practising

:08:47.:08:51.

their lines in expectation of a disappointing result. In the north,

:08:52.:08:56.

I do not think UKIP's status of the main nonlabour right-wing party will

:08:57.:09:00.

damage Labour. If you have a majority of 25,000... But in the

:09:01.:09:07.

South and Midlands, UKIP could break the non-Tory vote in such a way as

:09:08.:09:10.

to cost Labour marginal seats that they would otherwise win. As for the

:09:11.:09:18.

Tories, look back at 2009, UKIP 116 or 17% of the popular vote in the

:09:19.:09:23.

European elections and fell to 3% in the general election. You mentioned

:09:24.:09:32.

Europe, the Tories are anticipating finishing third, they did not do

:09:33.:09:37.

well on Thursday, they seem to be putting everything on Europe, we

:09:38.:09:43.

will beat UKIP in Newark. That is the line I am getting from them. The

:09:44.:09:48.

Liberal Democrats and Labour are nowhere there, they both got 20% of

:09:49.:09:53.

the vote, the Tories got 53%, a majority of 16,000. UKIP do not need

:09:54.:09:58.

to do well to have an enormous increase on last time. This seed is

:09:59.:10:03.

a referendum on Tories against UKIP, which we have not seen so far. I was

:10:04.:10:10.

there for the rocky road packed. David Cameron gave a piece of rocky

:10:11.:10:17.

road to Boris Johnson, saying, you know you want it, Boris. The Tories

:10:18.:10:21.

must be a head, because at the bakery stores, the blue buns outsold

:10:22.:10:30.

the UKIP buns. Ed Miliband bit off more than he

:10:31.:10:36.

could chew when he turned launch into a budgeted last week, but he is

:10:37.:10:39.

not the first politician to make a meal of it.

:10:40.:10:56.

I love a hot pasty, the choice was to have a small one or a large one,

:10:57.:11:37.

and I opted for the large one, and very good it was, too.

:11:38.:11:44.

The significance of the Ed Miliband business is more about the media, we

:11:45.:11:49.

can amplify nothingness, but because the narrative is that Ed Miliband is

:11:50.:11:55.

accident prone, even eating a big concern which becomes an accident.

:11:56.:12:00.

He is deemed to be weird, so we find pictures that support the

:12:01.:12:04.

conclusion. It is a class issue, you reveal your social class by what you

:12:05.:12:11.

eat, what supermarket you go to. You can play somebody accurately.

:12:12.:12:17.

Politicians are largely of a different class from the voters, and

:12:18.:12:20.

as soon as you ask them about food, it becomes apparent. To thine own

:12:21.:12:27.

self be true, David Cameron pretending he was interested in

:12:28.:12:30.

Cornish pasties, he does the cooking at the weekend, lots of posh food,

:12:31.:12:35.

do not pretend to be something you are not. The problem for Ed Miliband

:12:36.:12:40.

with that picture, he has some abnormal people working for him, but

:12:41.:12:45.

what he does not have is a broadcast person who can spot those pictures.

:12:46.:12:50.

George Osborne hired Theo Rogers from the BBC, she has

:12:51.:12:56.

transformed... She may have been guilty of the burger, but she has

:12:57.:13:00.

transformed his image on TV. That is what Ed Miliband needs. You are

:13:01.:13:06.

correct, it Ed Miliband was 15 points ahead in the polls, screwing

:13:07.:13:10.

up the eating of a bacon sandwich would be seen as an endearing trait.

:13:11.:13:15.

We might not have even noticed it. That is all this week, you can get

:13:16.:13:20.

those European election results with David Dimbleby on vote went to 14

:13:21.:13:26.

from 9pm on the BBC News Channel, and from 11pm on BBC One. No

:13:27.:13:32.

programme next week, but we are back in two weeks. If it is Sunday, it is

:13:33.:13:34.

the Sunday Politics. This week, Britain has voted for its

:13:35.:14:11.

Members of the European Parliament. What will the result tell us about

:14:12.:14:14.

the political mood here in Britain of the results

:14:15.:14:21.

both here and across Europe.

:14:22.:14:25.

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