13/07/2014 Sunday Politics Wales


13/07/2014

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Just two months to go until Scotland decides if it should stay

:00:37.:00:42.

As the campaign heads for the final furlong,

:00:43.:00:45.

what are the issues and arguments that will determine the result?

:00:46.:00:49.

The SNP's deputy leader Nicola Sturgeon joins me live.

:00:50.:00:53.

David Cameron's scheduled a major cabinet reshuffle on Tuesday.

:00:54.:00:56.

Many of those tipped for promotion are women.

:00:57.:00:58.

So have efforts to promote diversity in public life barely started or

:00:59.:01:02.

And don't know whether to support Germany or

:01:03.:01:11.

Later in the programme: political guide to the World Cup.

:01:12.:01:20.

A dramatic week in Cardiff Bay ends a very eventual first half

:01:21.:01:22.

It's World Cup final day and as usual the BBC's snagged the

:01:23.:01:40.

Yes, eat your heart out, ITV, because for top football analysis

:01:41.:01:46.

we've got Gary Lineker, Alan Hansen, and Alan Shearer.

:01:47.:01:49.

And for top political analysis you may

:01:50.:01:52.

as well tune in to them too because all we could come up with is Nick

:01:53.:01:56.

David Cameron will reshuffle his cabinet on Tuesday.

:01:57.:02:06.

The Sunday papers are full of stories telling us who'll be

:02:07.:02:09.

in and who'll be out, though they don't really know.

:02:10.:02:11.

The Mail on Sunday has one of the more eye-catching lines,

:02:12.:02:14.

reporting that former defence secretary and right-winger Liam Fox

:02:15.:02:16.

is in line for a return to the political front line.

:02:17.:02:19.

But there's general agreement that women will do well and some

:02:20.:02:26.

of the old men in suits guard will do badly.

:02:27.:02:30.

Here's senior Tory backbencher David Davis speaking to this programme.

:02:31.:02:39.

It's good to make parliament more representative.

:02:40.:02:46.

But you've got to do it in a way that doesn't create

:02:47.:02:49.

injustices, and you can't put people in a job who can't do the job.

:02:50.:02:53.

And I've seen that too over the last 20 years, people being

:02:54.:03:01.

accelerated too far too fast and they come to

:03:02.:03:03.

a screeching halt where they have to catch up with themselves.

:03:04.:03:09.

I am not going to give an example. Is this not a bit cynical? He is

:03:10.:03:22.

going to promote these women into cabinet positions, but they will not

:03:23.:03:30.

be able to do anything. I am sceptical of Cabinet reshuffle. It

:03:31.:03:36.

is an un-written pact in that the media and the government have a

:03:37.:03:43.

great interest in talking it up. The government says, haven't we

:03:44.:03:47.

refreshed ourselves? Generally it doesn't refresh the government.

:03:48.:03:51.

David Cameron wants to send out a new signal. You're going to see the

:03:52.:03:58.

old guard getting a P 45 and you will see a lot of women come in and

:03:59.:04:02.

a lot of younger men. We will find there will be a lot of resignations.

:04:03.:04:09.

A lot of, dear Prime Minister, as I told you 18 months ago, I want to

:04:10.:04:15.

move on. Because the Conservatives have this perception of not being

:04:16.:04:19.

very good with women and not being good with black and ethnic minority

:04:20.:04:24.

voters, they are going to want to do something about that. Why did he not

:04:25.:04:31.

do it before? This reshuffle might be the triumph of the a list. A lot

:04:32.:04:37.

of the women coming through the ranks have been from the a list

:04:38.:04:42.

which was a half measure because they knew they could not bring all

:04:43.:04:47.

of them in. You are going to see more women but that is a result of a

:04:48.:04:52.

long-term strategy. David Cameron is not the world's most raging

:04:53.:04:57.

feminist. He is doing this for practical reasons. He knows he has

:04:58.:05:01.

an image problem for the party and he has to solve it. He was stung by

:05:02.:05:11.

that picture of the all-male bench at Prime Minister's Questions

:05:12.:05:14.

because visibly it gave you the problem that you have been talking

:05:15.:05:19.

about. I do not think he has allowed it to be all-male since that

:05:20.:05:24.

embarrassing image. I can understand the criticism made of this approach

:05:25.:05:27.

if it was the case that all the women being promoted by talentless

:05:28.:05:34.

but you have to be very harsh to look at them and say that they would

:05:35.:05:39.

have much less to offer than the likes of Andrew Lansley. You can be

:05:40.:05:52.

pro-feminist. The tests for David Cameron is that having raised

:05:53.:05:55.

expectations he has to give them substantial jobs. They have to be

:05:56.:06:00.

given departments to run or big portfolios to carry. If they are

:06:01.:06:04.

given media campaign positions in the run-up to the election it looks

:06:05.:06:09.

perfunctorily. He is under some trouble to perhaps suggest a female

:06:10.:06:15.

commissioner to the European Union Commission. Jean-Claude Juncker has

:06:16.:06:24.

made clear that if he proposes a woman candidate they will get a

:06:25.:06:29.

better job. Saying they would like ten out of the 28 to be women. We

:06:30.:06:37.

are going to get the name of the British candidate at the same time

:06:38.:06:43.

as the reshuffle. The first face-to-face meeting, he will be

:06:44.:06:49.

able to put a name. There are other names in the frame. People like

:06:50.:06:56.

Archie Norman. That come from? His name is in the frame. There would be

:06:57.:07:05.

great scepticism of giving it to Andrew Lansley. People would think

:07:06.:07:08.

he was the man who mucked up the reform of the NHS. Who is it going

:07:09.:07:17.

to be? Either a woman or a man. I would not be surprised if they go

:07:18.:07:22.

for someone believe dynamic. Someone who would square the party. Would

:07:23.:07:28.

that not mean a by-election? It might. She is a high profile

:07:29.:07:35.

Eurosceptic. She is a very competent former banker. It would be the smart

:07:36.:07:40.

choice. I have no idea but my favourite rumour is Michael Howard.

:07:41.:07:42.

That had some legs for a while. The Mystic Megs of Fleet Street

:07:43.:07:50.

predict with confidence that the PM is going to promote more women

:07:51.:07:55.

in his cabinet reshuffle. The move can be seen as part

:07:56.:07:56.

of a move across British public life to do more to make our institutions

:07:57.:07:59.

less male and less white. But as the list

:08:00.:08:02.

of schemes to encourage diversity grows ever-longer, have we abandoned

:08:03.:08:04.

the idea of appointment by merit? Tunnelling. Hard hats, and all for

:08:05.:08:20.

new trains. It does not get more macho than the Crossrail project.

:08:21.:08:25.

When Crossrail looked at the construction industry they realise

:08:26.:08:26.

that less than 20% was made up construction industry they realise

:08:27.:08:37.

women and they asked, can we fix it? They are trying with a recruitment

:08:38.:08:39.

drive that has brought in female engineers like this woman. She even

:08:40.:08:46.

has a tunnel named after her. Having more female engineers and

:08:47.:08:50.

construction brings a bigger range of opinions, a bigger range of

:08:51.:08:56.

ideas, more diversity, into the industry, and makes it better as a

:08:57.:09:00.

whole. It is the issue being grappled in another male dominated

:09:01.:09:04.

workplace, the Cabinet. There is about to be a reach shuffle and the

:09:05.:09:08.

rumour is David Cameron is going to promote a lot of female ministers.

:09:09.:09:12.

It was a lack of promotion that annoyed Harriet Harman this week.

:09:13.:09:18.

She claimed Gordon Brown did not make her Deputy Prime Minister

:09:19.:09:22.

because she was a woman. It was strange that in a hard-fought highly

:09:23.:09:25.

contested election to be deputy leader of the Labour Party, and

:09:26.:09:30.

having won against men in the Cabinet, to succeed to be deputy

:09:31.:09:33.

leader of the Labour Party I discovered that I was not to be

:09:34.:09:38.

appointed as Deputy Prime Minister. For women in this country, no matter

:09:39.:09:42.

how able they are, the matter how hard they might work, they are still

:09:43.:09:49.

not equal. There are initiatives to make the world feel more equal. In

:09:50.:09:54.

the City the EU wants a quarter for women in the boardroom but that goal

:09:55.:09:58.

of making 40% of the top floor female. At the BBC the boss of the

:09:59.:10:04.

TV division says no panel show should ever be all-male. In the ever

:10:05.:10:10.

glamorous movie business the British film Institute announced their new

:10:11.:10:14.

thematic system to get lottery funding projects improving diversity

:10:15.:10:20.

on screen and off and helping social mobility. Employers like Crossrail

:10:21.:10:27.

are not allowed to positively discriminate but under the quality

:10:28.:10:31.

act of 2010 if two candidate for a job are just as good you are allowed

:10:32.:10:36.

to base your decision on characteristics like race, sexuality

:10:37.:10:41.

and gender. Some worry it has chipped away at the idea of hiring

:10:42.:10:48.

on merit. A woman and three men going for a job, two of the men are

:10:49.:10:53.

really good and the woman is not quite as good but she gets the job

:10:54.:10:56.

anyway. That will create injustice, a feeling that she did not deserve

:10:57.:11:04.

the job, resentment. It does not advance equality in society at all.

:11:05.:11:14.

On this project they want to leave a concrete legacy of a more diverse

:11:15.:11:18.

construction industry. The question is, what tools do you use when it

:11:19.:11:19.

comes to the rest of society? I'm joined now by

:11:20.:11:31.

Yasmin Alibhai-Brown, a columnist for the Independent,

:11:32.:11:32.

and by Munira Mirza, the deputy mayor of London responsible

:11:33.:11:35.

for education and culture. Cabinet wee shovel coming up punches

:11:36.:11:47.

though. Should David Cameron be promoting women? He is going to do

:11:48.:11:54.

it anyway. He should have a long time ago. It does not feel quite

:11:55.:12:00.

right that a few months before the election it would do the party a lot

:12:01.:12:06.

of good to be seen as a party properly reflective of the entire

:12:07.:12:10.

population. He should promote women because they are women? I think he

:12:11.:12:15.

should think about lots of different factors, whether the people he wants

:12:16.:12:18.

promote have proven themselves in their current reefs, whether they

:12:19.:12:25.

are good performers in the media, whether they represent different

:12:26.:12:30.

parts of the party, but the main principle is to promote on basis of

:12:31.:12:34.

merit. There are many talented women who fill that description. It should

:12:35.:12:39.

be that merit is the important thing rather than what you were born with.

:12:40.:12:43.

The thing about positive discrimination as it flies in the

:12:44.:12:46.

face of that kind of principle. You are shaking your head. We have

:12:47.:12:52.

always had positive discrimination. Men of a certain class have

:12:53.:12:59.

appointed in their own image because they feel most comfortable with

:13:00.:13:04.

that. We have had unspoken positive discrimination in this country and

:13:05.:13:06.

every other country throughout history. We are asking as women, all

:13:07.:13:12.

minorities, let us get into the same game. What do you say? You cannot

:13:13.:13:19.

solve the racism or the sexism of the past by more racism and sexism.

:13:20.:13:24.

It is not the past. There are complex reasons why a smaller number

:13:25.:13:29.

of women will appear in certain industries. It has a lot to do with

:13:30.:13:35.

childcare, education, expected. You cannot short cut that by setting a

:13:36.:13:38.

target. That is not how you achieve equality. Things are changing and

:13:39.:13:43.

more women are appearing in engineering and so on but it will

:13:44.:13:48.

take time. My worry is that these kinds of measures are

:13:49.:13:50.

counter-productive and undermine the perception that women can do it on

:13:51.:13:52.

their own merit rather counter-productive and undermine the

:13:53.:13:54.

perception that women can do it than because they need a helping hand. It

:13:55.:13:59.

is not a helping hand. It is to say, we are as good as men and these

:14:00.:14:10.

hidden barriers. Dot. Either they are not as good or they do not want

:14:11.:14:12.

it, which is just how we persuade are not as good or they do not want

:14:13.:14:16.

it, which ourselves that it is not happening, or there are barriers.

:14:17.:14:21.

How we judge meritocracy is at the heart of it. Are lots of industries

:14:22.:14:29.

won there are not that many women, such as engineering. We need more

:14:30.:14:36.

engineers generally. I think it is fine to try to encourage more women

:14:37.:14:42.

to study that subject. By setting a target you put pressure on an

:14:43.:14:50.

organisation. You tried to ignore the complex reasons why women do not

:14:51.:15:11.

go into those sectors. I think an all-female short list achieved

:15:12.:15:21.

miracle in Parliament. This is following up from having an

:15:22.:15:25.

injection of women coming up because the system was changed and a large

:15:26.:15:28.

percentage of women went into Parliament under the all-female

:15:29.:15:35.

short list were brilliant, so why not? So if the Prime Minister is

:15:36.:15:42.

mailed the Deputy Prime Minister has to be female and vice versa? Yes,

:15:43.:15:50.

absolutely, 50-50. We need to reflect the population. If we want

:15:51.:15:59.

to play this as a symbolic gesture, ideally we should have one of each.

:16:00.:16:04.

Why should a man get the job if you have a great female prime minister

:16:05.:16:11.

and a great female Deputy Prime Minister? I personally wouldn't mind

:16:12.:16:18.

this. I hear the disgruntled man and I want to come -- them to come with

:16:19.:16:28.

us. You're choosing people on the basis of traits they were born

:16:29.:16:32.

with. Are there too many Indian doctors in the NHS? I would argue

:16:33.:16:39.

not. Given that we tend to have male prime ministers rather than female

:16:40.:16:43.

ones, and we don't see another female one coming down the pipe very

:16:44.:16:50.

quickly... In the time before women short lists by the way. If you had a

:16:51.:16:56.

male prime minister with a female Deputy Prime Minister, wouldn't that

:16:57.:17:02.

give some balance? Why women? Why not working class person, which

:17:03.:17:08.

group do you prioritise? I would go with you that we need something

:17:09.:17:12.

fundamental to change. This idea that what we have now is a

:17:13.:17:17.

reflection of a genuine meritocracy is highly questionable. I would

:17:18.:17:21.

argue that when you look at the statistics things are changing.

:17:22.:17:23.

argue that when you look at the statistics things There are more

:17:24.:17:25.

women appearing in parts of public life, that is a long-term trend, but

:17:26.:17:34.

if you are trying to appoint people on what they were born with... That

:17:35.:17:38.

is not the only reason but it is an additional reason. She has to be

:17:39.:17:42.

able to do the job, obviously. I am saying the policy of hazard to

:17:43.:17:48.

discrimination explicitly state that you should choose somebody who is

:17:49.:17:52.

female because they are female. At the moment there is already enough

:17:53.:17:56.

suspicion about women who are successful to get to the senior

:17:57.:18:03.

position and if you institutionalise it you reinforce that suspicion.

:18:04.:18:05.

Harriet Harman is still complaining women are not being treated fairly.

:18:06.:18:13.

I think the policy reinforces the prejudice that women are not getting

:18:14.:18:16.

there because they are treated on the same basis. Although you may not

:18:17.:18:23.

want to have the all-female short list forever, wasn't it the kind of

:18:24.:18:27.

shock to the system that made a visible change in female

:18:28.:18:32.

representation, which the Tory side hasn't got? Of course it will work

:18:33.:18:40.

short-term but longer term it has a very degrading effect on the

:18:41.:18:44.

principle of equality and the fact Harriet Harman is saying she wasn't

:18:45.:18:49.

treated equally, whether it is true or not, the perception is still

:18:50.:18:58.

there. A number of women find this position must be reserved for a

:18:59.:19:02.

woman lying patronising, and speaking of patronising women, you

:19:03.:19:10.

spoken your Independent column, she presses all of the buttons for white

:19:11.:19:14.

people... Was that patronising and offensive? Probably. I wrote it

:19:15.:19:20.

because I felt that at the time but the point is that I was a token when

:19:21.:19:25.

I was appointed. The paper brought me in because I was a woman and I

:19:26.:19:31.

was a muslin or whatever. You are not writing about yourself. I was

:19:32.:19:37.

writing... It doesn't mean you don't criticise other women. We absolutely

:19:38.:19:54.

have to be tough, Manira is tough and so am I. Do you want to take

:19:55.:20:01.

back what you wrote? No. Do you really think positive discrimination

:20:02.:20:06.

has gone too far? I think there is already a suspicion out there that

:20:07.:20:12.

in certain sectors women are being promoted for the wrong reasons or

:20:13.:20:16.

ethnic minorities are being promoted for the wrong reasons. That is a

:20:17.:20:22.

shame and my worry is that by tying funding to your ethnicity or your

:20:23.:20:26.

gender, by saying you will get a promotion if you check that box, but

:20:27.:20:31.

you feel that resentment and prejudice and undermine the case for

:20:32.:20:41.

inequality. I wanted to be treated equally, because I am capable of

:20:42.:20:47.

doing that job. Only two months to go before Scotland takes its biggest

:20:48.:20:55.

constitutional decision in 300 years - should it quit or stay with the

:20:56.:21:01.

UK? For some in Scotland campaign has been going on forever. What has

:21:02.:21:05.

been the impact on the campaign to date?

:21:06.:21:12.

Alex Salmond says Scotland would remain part of the European Union

:21:13.:21:17.

with sterling as its currency in a monetary union with the rest of the

:21:18.:21:22.

UK, but he has also promised more public spending, increased child

:21:23.:21:28.

care provision and free personal care for the elderly. The SNP claims

:21:29.:21:35.

it would leave people better off by ?1000 though that partly depends on

:21:36.:21:40.

the price of oil. With the Better Together arguing against

:21:41.:21:47.

independence, it has naturally been attacking the SNP on all fronts.

:21:48.:21:51.

George Osborne says there will be no monetary union. President Barroso

:21:52.:21:58.

told the BBC it would be extremely difficult for Scotland to join the

:21:59.:22:03.

EU after a yes vote. His successor this week said he agreed. Unions

:22:04.:22:16.

claim Scotland benefit by ?1400 by being part of the UK. A poll this

:22:17.:22:24.

morning shows a significant lead of 57% for the no campaign, leaving the

:22:25.:22:30.

SNP to claim it will go their way in the last ten weeks. Nicola Sturgeon,

:22:31.:22:35.

the Deputy First Minister of Scotland, joins me now. You want an

:22:36.:22:39.

independent Scotland to keep the pound, stay in NATO, stay in the

:22:40.:22:47.

EU, Scotland already has all of that but you cannot guarantee it would

:22:48.:22:51.

have any of it in an independent Scotland, why take the risk? All of

:22:52.:22:58.

these things should be the case because they are in the best

:22:59.:23:02.

interests of Scotland and the rest of the UK but we want the powers to

:23:03.:23:08.

enable us to grow our economy faster, to be productive, and

:23:09.:23:13.

overtime increased the prosperity of people living in Scotland. We also

:23:14.:23:19.

want powers over our social security system so that we can create a

:23:20.:23:25.

system that meets our needs, one that also has a safety net for the

:23:26.:23:29.

most vulnerable people in our society. Independence is about

:23:30.:23:36.

letting us decide our own priorities. You didn't answer my

:23:37.:23:40.

question, you cannot guarantee you would be able to keep the pound

:23:41.:23:44.

within a monetary union, stay in NATO and the EU, you cannot

:23:45.:23:49.

guarantee you could produce any of these things, correct? I would argue

:23:50.:23:54.

that we can because these things are also in the interest of the rest of

:23:55.:24:00.

the UK. No country can be prevented from using the pound, I suggest we

:24:01.:24:05.

use that within a formal monetary union. We have had the UK minister

:24:06.:24:10.

quoted in the Guardian saying the position of the UK Government right

:24:11.:24:15.

now is one based on campaign rhetoric and following a yes vote,

:24:16.:24:19.

of course there would be a currency union. Who is that minister? The

:24:20.:24:27.

Minister is unnamed, but nevertheless that story in the

:24:28.:24:31.

Guardian was a solid one and not substantially denied. So you are

:24:32.:24:36.

basing your monetary policy on one on named minister in one story?

:24:37.:24:45.

Basing it on Common sense because monetary union would be in the best

:24:46.:24:51.

interests for Scotland but also overwhelmingly in the interests of

:24:52.:24:55.

the rest of the UK, given their trading relationship with Scotland

:24:56.:24:59.

and the contribution Scotland's exports make. We are having a very

:25:00.:25:07.

good debate and the UK Government and the no campaign, and this is not

:25:08.:25:19.

a criticism, want to talk up in -- uncertainty to make people feel

:25:20.:25:24.

scared, but after independence there will be constructed process of

:25:25.:25:28.

negotiation. Let's stick with the monetary union because most

:25:29.:25:31.

economists agree it would be very good for an independent Scotland to

:25:32.:25:35.

have a monetary union but George Osborne, Ed Balls, Danny Alexander

:25:36.:25:40.

are unequivocal, they say you won't get it. You claim they are bluffing

:25:41.:25:46.

but again you cannot guarantee that so why the risk? I would say the

:25:47.:25:50.

benefits of independence are substantial but I would also say to

:25:51.:25:55.

George Osborne and his counterparts in the other parties that it would

:25:56.:25:59.

be a very brave Chancellor that says to businesses in the rest of the UK

:26:00.:26:04.

that they have to incur unnecessary additional transaction costs of half

:26:05.:26:07.

a very brave Chancellor that says to businesses in the rest of the UK

:26:08.:26:10.

that they have to incur unnecessary additional transaction costs of

:26:11.:26:15.

half. What we are doing is making a case that is based on common sense

:26:16.:26:19.

and voters in Scotland will listen to that case being put forward by

:26:20.:26:24.

the other side as well, and they will come to a judgement of the

:26:25.:26:33.

common-sense position. Let's look at EU membership because you haven't

:26:34.:26:36.

been able to guarantee the monetary union. When President Barroso said

:26:37.:26:46.

that a seamless transition to EU membership for an independent

:26:47.:26:49.

Scotland was anything but certain, and one said it could even be

:26:50.:26:55.

impossible, you dismissed him because he was standing down, but

:26:56.:27:04.

been -- venue EU president says the same, do you dismissed him? What we

:27:05.:27:11.

are doing... I should say at the outset of this, we have said

:27:12.:27:16.

repeatedly to the UK Government, let's go jointly and ask for a

:27:17.:27:20.

formal opinion on the EU commission. The EU commission have

:27:21.:27:24.

said they will only do that at this stage if the UK Government ask for

:27:25.:27:30.

it, they are point blank refusing to do that, you have to ask why? It is

:27:31.:27:36.

in their interests to talk up uncertainty. Scotland is an integral

:27:37.:27:42.

part of the European Union, we have been for 40 years, we comply with

:27:43.:27:48.

the rules and regulations... Mr Juncker knows all of that but he

:27:49.:27:53.

still says it will be anything but a seamless transition. He said you

:27:54.:27:59.

could not join the European Union by sending a letter, that is not our

:28:00.:28:10.

proposal. We set down a robust proposal and the timescale we think

:28:11.:28:16.

is reasonable under these circumstances. There are many

:28:17.:28:21.

nationals of other states living in Scotland right now, if we were to be

:28:22.:28:27.

outside of the European Union for any period of time, something the

:28:28.:28:31.

current treaty doesn't even provide for, they would lose their right to

:28:32.:28:36.

stay here. The interests of Scotland and the interests of European Union

:28:37.:28:39.

are in favour of a seamless transition. It comes down to common

:28:40.:28:44.

sense and people in Scotland will make

:28:45.:28:45.

sense and people in Scotland will their own judgement on who is

:28:46.:28:50.

talking the common-sense. What about NATO, two years ago you told

:28:51.:28:56.

Newsnight the SNP's position is that we wouldn't stay in NATO. We had a

:28:57.:29:02.

democratic debate, we looked at whether it would be in the interests

:29:03.:29:06.

of an independent Scotland, which forms a significant part of the

:29:07.:29:12.

territory of the North Atlantic and the party changed its mind. It did

:29:13.:29:19.

so in a thoroughly democratic way. That is the nature of democracy.

:29:20.:29:27.

Would you accept the protection of the NATO nuclear umbrella? There is

:29:28.:29:38.

no doubt the SNP's position is that we do not want nuclear weapons in

:29:39.:29:47.

Scotland. That is not what I asked. The world rid themselves of nuclear

:29:48.:29:50.

weapons. One of the interesting point is of the 28 member countries

:29:51.:29:54.

of Natal 25 do not have nuclear weapons. An independent Scotland...

:29:55.:29:59.

I asked if you would accept the nuclear umbrella. The key feature of

:30:00.:30:11.

NATO's military dog train is now clear shrike. We would accept the

:30:12.:30:18.

basis of which NATO is founded but we would argue two things. We want

:30:19.:30:24.

Trident removed from Scotland rather than have a situation where might we

:30:25.:30:27.

are spending ?100 billion over the next generation replacing Trident

:30:28.:30:32.

and we would argue within the international community that the

:30:33.:30:37.

world should move much more quickly to rid itself of nuclear weapons.

:30:38.:30:41.

That is the principal position and won the SNP has held consistently

:30:42.:30:46.

for many years. You would get rid of one of the key parts of the NATO

:30:47.:30:51.

deterrent based in Scotland. You would kick that out. You would not

:30:52.:30:56.

accept all of the club rules because you do not like the idea of nuclear.

:30:57.:31:02.

Why would they like a member like you in? Because Scotland is a

:31:03.:31:07.

significant part of the territory of the North Atlantic. You do not

:31:08.:31:13.

subscribe to the rules. 25 of the member states of NATO are

:31:14.:31:18.

non-nuclear members. You are saying you do not follow the doctrine. NATO

:31:19.:31:25.

has said it wants to move away from reliance on nuclear weapons. An

:31:26.:31:29.

independent Scotland would be entering the majority mainstream of

:31:30.:31:34.

NATO as a country that did not have nuclear weapons. By leading by

:31:35.:31:39.

example our moral authority and encouraging others to do likewise

:31:40.:31:43.

would be increased. Money and oil, the finance minister has said that

:31:44.:31:48.

an independent Scotland would increase public spending by 3% a

:31:49.:31:52.

year. He would pay for that by borrowing. Your First Minister says

:31:53.:31:57.

he is going to stash money in an oil fund. You're going to borrow and

:31:58.:32:03.

save. How does that work? There are two points. Firstly in terms of the

:32:04.:32:10.

outlook for finances and what is one of the central debates of this

:32:11.:32:14.

referendum campaign, austerity that we know will continue if we stay as

:32:15.:32:18.

part of the Westminster system versus prosperity. The economy can

:32:19.:32:24.

afford a higher level of increase in public spending while we continue to

:32:25.:32:28.

have deficit levels at a sustainable level. What is the point of

:32:29.:32:34.

borrowing and saving at the same time? People who have a mortgage and

:32:35.:32:39.

the savings account would not themselves what the wisdom of that

:32:40.:32:45.

is. This is based on recommendations of our expert fiscal Commission that

:32:46.:32:48.

as borrowing reduces to sustainable levels it makes sense to start

:32:49.:32:54.

saving a proportion of our oil wealth. In Norway, which has many

:32:55.:33:00.

similarities to Scotland, they have an oil fund worth ?500 billion.

:33:01.:33:05.

Scotland is part of the Westminster system is sitting on a share of UK

:33:06.:33:10.

debt. We can continue to allow our oil wealth, our vast oil wealth, to

:33:11.:33:16.

be mismanaged or we can decide we are going to manage that resource

:33:17.:33:20.

better in the years to come. Your figures do not add up unless you are

:33:21.:33:27.

about oil prices and revenue and you have been consistently wrong in your

:33:28.:33:30.

predictions. Last year you forecast that revenues would be the .7

:33:31.:33:38.

billion more than they actually work -- 3.7 billion. The cost of the

:33:39.:33:46.

Scottish school system gone. There were particular reasons for that in

:33:47.:33:49.

terms of interruption to production and bigger levels of investment.

:33:50.:33:54.

Used ill have to find the money. Let me explain. They are based on robust

:33:55.:34:00.

assumptions, firstly a production estimates that is in line with the

:34:01.:34:03.

estimates of the oil and gas industry. Use of figures that are

:34:04.:34:07.

based on production of 10 billion barrels of oil. Oil and gas has been

:34:08.:34:15.

wrong as well. It is 24 billion left to be recovered. That is what is in

:34:16.:34:22.

the UK Government's oil and gas strategy so production in line with

:34:23.:34:28.

industry estimates and an oil price of $110 per barrel which is flat in

:34:29.:34:31.

cash terms would be a real terms reduction. The Department of energy

:34:32.:34:38.

is estimating $128 per barrel so our estimate compared to that is

:34:39.:34:43.

cautious. These are robust estimates based on robust assumptions. Except

:34:44.:34:50.

they have been wrong. Finally, we hear a lot from you and your fellow

:34:51.:34:55.

nationalists, you want a Scandinavian style social democracy,

:34:56.:35:00.

you know how to spend the money but you never tell us about social

:35:01.:35:04.

democratic levels of taxation. Also should grizzlies have higher levels

:35:05.:35:08.

of tax in Scotland does at the moment -- all social grizzlies. I

:35:09.:35:14.

want a Scottish style of social democracy. Free education, free

:35:15.:35:21.

medicines and balancing the books every single year. We want to get

:35:22.:35:26.

more people into work in Scotland, raise the level of distribution in

:35:27.:35:30.

the Labour market and make the economy more productive so we are

:35:31.:35:33.

raising the overall tax revenue. Over the last 33 years we have

:35:34.:35:39.

generated more taxpayer head of population than is the case and the

:35:40.:35:47.

rest of the UK. Those last 33 years, some of those years oil prices would

:35:48.:35:51.

have been high and in others they would have been law but we take

:35:52.:35:55.

different decisions. A report showed that if we go as part of the

:35:56.:35:59.

Westminster system down the plate -- route of replacing Trident then the

:36:00.:36:06.

cost will be as high as ?4 billion every year. Our share of that is the

:36:07.:36:11.

hundred million pounds a year. Let us get access to our own resources

:36:12.:36:16.

so we can make different and better decisions about how to spend the

:36:17.:36:19.

resources we have. You are promising Scandinavian style social democratic

:36:20.:36:25.

levels of public spending but you say you will not need a top rate of

:36:26.:36:30.

tax of 56% which is what Scandinavia has, that all 25%, which is what

:36:31.:36:39.

Scandinavia has and VAT of 15%. You are going to have the spending but

:36:40.:36:42.

none of the taxes that make it possible in Scandinavia. For

:36:43.:36:49.

mischievous reasons you are met -- misrepresenting what I am saying.

:36:50.:36:54.

The Scottish economy can afford it and we want to generate more wealth

:36:55.:36:59.

in our economy. We want to use the existing resources Scotland has. We

:37:00.:37:04.

are the 14th richest country in the world in terms of what we produce.

:37:05.:37:09.

We do not want to be wasting resources. We want to be spending

:37:10.:37:12.

resources on the things that other priority for the people of Scotland.

:37:13.:37:17.

These are the benefits and the opportunities really get if we take

:37:18.:37:21.

the opportunity of voting yes and becoming independent.

:37:22.:37:32.

Hello and on the Sunday Politics Wales:

:37:33.:37:49.

We hear verdicts from all parties, including Labour,

:37:50.:37:51.

We hear from Rosemary Butler, the Assembly's presiding officer, who is

:37:52.:37:55.

And we take a whistle stop tour through a busy

:37:56.:37:58.

Alun Davies was given a second chance by the First Minister when

:37:59.:38:10.

he breached the Welsh Government's code of conduct for ministers.

:38:11.:38:13.

Everyone seems to agree that Mr Davies had to go.

:38:14.:38:17.

But is there a consensus on where his dismissal from the Cabinet

:38:18.:38:20.

leaves him, the first minister and politics in the Assembly?

:38:21.:38:22.

Campaign Assembly watchers have been enthralled this week by the

:38:23.:38:39.

unfolding drama around the environment ministers sacking.

:38:40.:38:47.

We saw an angry first Minister. I am not prepared to tolerate that kind

:38:48.:38:52.

of behaviour. And an incandescent opposition. I find that answered

:38:53.:38:59.

deeply offensive because your minister was trying to seek

:39:00.:39:03.

information to cause political damage to individuals in this

:39:04.:39:07.

chamber. Do you regret not sapping Alun Davies last week and says that

:39:08.:39:12.

not speak volumes about a severe lapse in judgement on your part? A

:39:13.:39:17.

week before he was sacked Alun Davies had been given a second

:39:18.:39:22.

chance by the first Minister. He had broken ministerial rules when he

:39:23.:39:25.

lobbied a body he was responsible for about a race track in his

:39:26.:39:31.

constituency. The latest episode happened only hours after the

:39:32.:39:34.

ministers job had been spared when the first minister asked -- find out

:39:35.:39:41.

he had asked for private information on other AM is, he had to go. Alun

:39:42.:39:45.

requested information about five opposition members including the

:39:46.:39:51.

leader of the Conservatives in the assembly, Andrew R.T. Davies. I want

:39:52.:39:55.

to make sure that people have confidence that it isn't a more

:39:56.:40:00.

systematic attempt by Welsh Labour winning government to use their

:40:01.:40:04.

ministerial offices to blacken the name of either politicians,

:40:05.:40:08.

charities, businesses or individuals by using information in the wrong

:40:09.:40:12.

way. So I think we do need an independent enquiry cheered by an

:40:13.:40:17.

independent judge to look at all this. He also says the Blaenau Gwent

:40:18.:40:29.

Assembly Member is not fit to be in Assembly Member at a former Labour

:40:30.:40:33.

adviser, though agreeing the minister had to go, thinks Welsh

:40:34.:40:36.

politics needs more people like Alun Davies. It was right that he had to

:40:37.:40:44.

go. I think everybody wreck wises that but the reaction has been

:40:45.:40:50.

disproportionate to his offence. For all his faults Alun Davies is an

:40:51.:40:56.

entertaining politician. He is not afraid of debate and whilst he was

:40:57.:41:01.

wrong on this occasion I don't think you can equate a political attack,

:41:02.:41:08.

even a political personal attack, I don't think this is a smear and

:41:09.:41:12.

don't think the information he was trying to was personal. But there

:41:13.:41:17.

are plenty would disagree and believe this week 's events have had

:41:18.:41:22.

a wide-ranging impact. I think it has certainly been damaging to the

:41:23.:41:25.

first Minister. His judgement has been called into question. Having to

:41:26.:41:33.

focus on personal characters in his cabinet rather than concentrating on

:41:34.:41:37.

public services is an indictment for the first Minister. It is a bad

:41:38.:41:43.

reflection on the Welsh Government but also to an extent the National

:41:44.:41:49.

Assembly as an institution. All Assembly Members need to be aware of

:41:50.:41:56.

the fact there is only 60 of us and the spotlight shines quite heavily

:41:57.:42:03.

upon us as individuals and our actions don't only reflect us as

:42:04.:42:06.

individuals, they reflect the national democratic institution and

:42:07.:42:13.

ultimately Wales in general. It has not been a great week for the first

:42:14.:42:18.

Minister. It does not been a great week for Welsh Labour. I think the

:42:19.:42:23.

long-term damage will be minimal. I don't think people will be talking

:42:24.:42:26.

about this in the next assembly election. The challenges will

:42:27.:42:33.

continue for the Labour government but they are around public service

:42:34.:42:37.

reform. It has fascinated those within this building but the sacking

:42:38.:42:41.

had not led an impression on many of those enjoying the sun in Cardiff

:42:42.:42:46.

Bay this week. I have been out of the news this week sorry. I am

:42:47.:42:52.

Ashley from the USA. He made a decision last week and was given a

:42:53.:42:59.

second chance but what he did this week was obviously not acceptable.

:43:00.:43:03.

If they collectively decide he has done something wrong then goodbye.

:43:04.:43:11.

But those who were watching this week 's first Minister 's questions

:43:12.:43:15.

judge did to be one of the most fiery they had seen. You have now

:43:16.:43:21.

accused me a second time and I won't stand for the third time. I have no

:43:22.:43:27.

idea what he's talking about. It seemed to mark a new low in

:43:28.:43:30.

relations between the first Minister and the leader of the opposition.

:43:31.:43:34.

The latter insists it's not personal. I hope the first Minister

:43:35.:43:40.

and I get on well on a personal level. We enjoy rugby and I still

:43:41.:43:47.

they read before the assembly team. We do have a lot in common.

:43:48.:43:52.

Politically we are different. He is laid a lever and I am the

:43:53.:43:56.

Conservative leader. The chamber is the place to explore and exploit and

:43:57.:44:02.

debate those differences and ultimately the electorate will form

:44:03.:44:08.

an opinion. This is not about personality because I would like to

:44:09.:44:11.

think we have got up pretty good relationship outside the chamber.

:44:12.:44:17.

The first Minister might have a different idea but that is the way I

:44:18.:44:21.

look at it. Not the best two days for Welsh Labour and the first Mr

:44:22.:44:26.

Baird in a weeks time, Assembly Members will leave Cardiff Bay for

:44:27.:44:30.

the summer. A welcome break for some after what has been a bruising end

:44:31.:44:32.

to the political year. Mr Davies declined our request

:44:33.:44:38.

for an interview, But I'm pleased to say the Plaid

:44:39.:44:40.

Cymru AM Simon Thomas joins us from Aberystwyth, and in the studio are

:44:41.:44:45.

Eluned Parrortt from the Liberal This has obviously been a very busy

:44:46.:44:58.

week in the assembly. Is that the end of it or is there more to come?

:44:59.:45:05.

It is the end of Alun Davies' ministerial career for now but there

:45:06.:45:09.

are questions to be answered. It makes Carwyn Jones looks week and

:45:10.:45:14.

gullible as a leader. He gave somebody a second chance will reward

:45:15.:45:19.

him by breaking the ministerial code again. The second issue is looking

:45:20.:45:25.

to the future, how can we clean things up? We need to look at how

:45:26.:45:29.

the Minister the deal code is policed. -- ministerial cold. --

:45:30.:45:42.

ministerial cold. We have to move forward in a way that a clean style

:45:43.:45:47.

of politics. The first Minister says in a democracy he should be the one

:45:48.:45:52.

to decide who's in and out of this cabinet. Do you agree? Ultimately,

:45:53.:45:58.

yes I do. That has to be a question about who produces a report on the

:45:59.:46:03.

conduct of ministers, who polices that and how we can ensure it is

:46:04.:46:12.

published. In going forward we have to have an independent view of

:46:13.:46:17.

ministers conduct in office when it has been questioned. It is the first

:46:18.:46:22.

Minister who has to decide the Democratic process and he appoints

:46:23.:46:26.

the Cabinet so he should be able to sack his Cabinet but they also think

:46:27.:46:31.

we need a public element to this so we understand the nature of the

:46:32.:46:38.

breaches of the ministerial code. On this occasion we saw that being let

:46:39.:46:44.

off from the ministerial code encouraged the Minister to break up

:46:45.:46:48.

the next morning. Is this the end of the affair? It has got to be. Alun

:46:49.:46:58.

Davies was a very good Minister and nobody has criticised how he

:46:59.:47:01.

performed. Carolyn Jones was decisive. Once he knew it had been

:47:02.:47:06.

probing the second time he sacked him immediately. There was no

:47:07.:47:11.

hanging about and he dealt with it effectively. Should he have done it

:47:12.:47:18.

a week earlier? That affects every member of the government. If an

:47:19.:47:22.

issue comes up in your constituency of great importance, what can you do

:47:23.:47:30.

in order to try and help it? Alun Davies did that. As a backbench

:47:31.:47:36.

member, they would be no problem at all with what he did. Is your view

:47:37.:47:41.

that this earlier breach about the race track in Blaenau Gwent really

:47:42.:47:46.

wasn't that serious? The first Minister to did it as a technical

:47:47.:48:00.

breach. -- treated it. We are responsible to our constituents.

:48:01.:48:06.

What this boils down to is that the first Minister David second chance.

:48:07.:48:13.

Is that such a bad thing? That first breach was a very serious matter. He

:48:14.:48:26.

leaned upon the planning process to make them change their mind. They

:48:27.:48:30.

withdrew an objection to a contentious planning application and

:48:31.:48:35.

it looks like that was as a result of the Minister's intervention. If I

:48:36.:48:38.

had written to national resources will and said to them please can you

:48:39.:48:43.

withdraw your rejection to this planning application, national

:48:44.:48:46.

resources Wales would not have written back to me. The minister

:48:47.:48:51.

right back to me. They did not behave in a way of a constituency

:48:52.:49:01.

Assembly Member. Natural Resources Wales say in lobbying for the

:49:02.:49:04.

racetrack Alun Davies was acting as a constituency member so was the

:49:05.:49:15.

first breach really that serious? I believe the first breach was quite

:49:16.:49:21.

serious. If you read the report by Derek Jones it says that the

:49:22.:49:29.

interference of Alun Davies could be perceived as having changed the

:49:30.:49:33.

decision making of Natural Resources Wales. The policing of the

:49:34.:49:38.

ministerial code is clear. It is about the perception of those

:49:39.:49:42.

breaches because we must think in public confidence that ministerial

:49:43.:49:46.

decision making is then on the basis of the greater national interest

:49:47.:49:51.

which is a separate thing to individual Assembly Members lobbying

:49:52.:49:57.

for their own constituencies. When you are chosen to be in government

:49:58.:50:00.

you have to whack in a different way and the code is there to police

:50:01.:50:04.

that. I thought his first breach was sufficient to be sacked or at least

:50:05.:50:08.

to have the responsibility for natural resources Wales removed from

:50:09.:50:19.

him. We have heard the leader of the opposition who says he once assured

:50:20.:50:23.

and says this is not part of a wider misuse of the system by the Labour

:50:24.:50:27.

Party. What is your response to that? He is playing politics. I get

:50:28.:50:39.

with loads of planning applications and Natural Resources Wales

:50:40.:50:42.

generally put an objection in an then withdrew it. It is fairly

:50:43.:50:50.

common. It happened in my constituency fairly recently.

:50:51.:50:55.

Councillors would have to declare the money they had from cap. They

:50:56.:51:00.

would have to declare everything. It is wrong and we need to look at the

:51:01.:51:06.

system in the assembly so people do declare public money they are

:51:07.:51:11.

getting. Let's look at the fallout of all of this. The allegation is

:51:12.:51:14.

that he was trying to smear his opponents. I don't think he could.

:51:15.:51:23.

He could not have used the information if he had received it. I

:51:24.:51:32.

think he was probably looking for background information and

:51:33.:51:34.

consequently he acted in a way that was probably not be sensible. I

:51:35.:51:42.

don't think he was going to go out and use the information. That is

:51:43.:51:48.

delusional. Even the first Minister has said the only reasonable

:51:49.:51:52.

explanation searching for this kind of information would be to use it

:51:53.:51:57.

for party political purposes. If in sacking Alun Davies the first

:51:58.:51:59.

Minister believes he was playing politics and trying to launch a

:52:00.:52:03.

smear campaign against his opponents, why would you accept it?

:52:04.:52:11.

We had David Taylor saying that is a public interest at stake here in

:52:12.:52:19.

that if Assembly Members are talking about farm subsidy payments in the

:52:20.:52:24.

assembly they should declare whether they or their families receive

:52:25.:52:29.

them. Should that be the case? Absolutely. I have no problem with

:52:30.:52:34.

that information being published. The specific details of those farm

:52:35.:52:38.

payments are a hold-up the moment as a result of a European court

:52:39.:52:43.

judgement. Looking to find that information was in contempt of a

:52:44.:52:50.

European court decision. It was in breach of the data protection act

:52:51.:52:56.

may be as well. So there are two very serious legal breaches there.

:52:57.:53:01.

Let's hope the system out at the top and make the information public as

:53:02.:53:07.

it was prior to 2008. The first Minister says the system works and

:53:08.:53:12.

the Minister was caught doing wrong and has lost his job. What is the

:53:13.:53:16.

complaint? If the system worked, he would not have tried it the next day

:53:17.:53:21.

having given a final warning the previous day. That shows to me the

:53:22.:53:26.

system is being treated with contempt and we have to ask whether

:53:27.:53:28.

there is a wider pattern of behaviour here by some ministers

:53:29.:53:35.

were putting pressure on external organisations in terms of getting

:53:36.:53:39.

the results they want. We have had one party for a long time governing

:53:40.:53:42.

in Wales on the hole and I think there might have been an attitude to

:53:43.:53:49.

government we need to get with all -- get rid of. Do you agree this

:53:50.:53:53.

does damage the assembly as an institution? It does but Carwyn

:53:54.:54:03.

Jones acted immediately. He could have sacked Alun Davies without any

:54:04.:54:07.

reason that he actually made everything public. You can't be more

:54:08.:54:12.

open than that. The way Carwyn Jones dealt with that is a good example to

:54:13.:54:18.

other institutions in the UK on how to deal with it rather than Saxilby

:54:19.:54:20.

and keep it quiet. -- sack somebody. Parliament and the Assembly both

:54:21.:54:36.

have one week until summer. For Welsh politicians,

:54:37.:54:38.

that often means commencing the summer circuit of Eisteddfods

:54:39.:54:40.

and agricultural shows. If you hope to ambush your AM or MP

:54:41.:54:42.

at the village fete and bend their ear about what's been

:54:43.:54:45.

going on in Westminster and Cardiff Bay, here's our whistle stop tour

:54:46.:54:48.

of the Welsh political year so far. It all seemed to be progressing

:54:49.:54:54.

smoothly, Upgrading the railways in South

:54:55.:54:56.

Wales was a done deal, we thought. Then earlier this year,

:54:57.:55:03.

the mother of all rows between the Welsh and UK governments

:55:04.:55:06.

came thundering towards us. Neither side can agree who will

:55:07.:55:10.

pay for rail electrification. There?s the ongoing spat

:55:11.:55:15.

about the state of public services, Cavid Cameron calls Offa's Dyke

:55:16.:55:21.

the line between life and death. There wasn't quite

:55:22.:55:27.

a civil war within Labour about it but perhaps the most awkward

:55:28.:55:33.

accusation that Carwyn Jones has faced about the NHS came from his

:55:34.:55:37.

own side, from Labour MP Ann Clwyd. Mr Jones says at least some

:55:38.:55:43.

of them will get better He?s thrown a lot of

:55:44.:55:49.

his political weight behind a plan He'll need friends

:55:50.:55:54.

in all parties to get his way. In February, we were wondering

:55:55.:56:00.

how many friends Andrew R.T. He sacked five members of the Tory

:56:01.:56:03.

shadow cabinet who rebelled in a row about giving the Assembly

:56:04.:56:09.

income tax powers. The dismissal of Alun Davies

:56:10.:56:12.

from the Welsh Government Cabinet has ended

:56:13.:56:19.

an eventful first half to 2014. A Cabinet reshuffle in Westminster

:56:20.:56:22.

perhaps ahead And maybe some Welsh politicians

:56:23.:56:27.

fancy a busman's holiday in Scotland to lend a hand in the nation?s

:56:28.:56:33.

campaign for the independence So far in 2014, there's been no

:56:34.:56:36.

shortage of fodder for journalists like our political editor

:56:37.:56:46.

Nick Servini, who joins me now. It has been a busy week and Rosemary

:56:47.:56:57.

Butler the assembly 's Presiding Officer is going to stand down as

:56:58.:57:03.

well. She was made a Dame in the New Year 's Honours list. She has been

:57:04.:57:08.

Presiding Officer since 2011. She has been the right from the start of

:57:09.:57:13.

this devolution process in 1999. She has been a government minister, she

:57:14.:57:18.

has been a big promoter of women in front line politics. She is also

:57:19.:57:25.

pushed hard to have more Assembly Members as well. That is something

:57:26.:57:29.

she talked about when we caught up with her this morning. It is a very

:57:30.:57:35.

different organisation than the one established in 1999. We can manage

:57:36.:57:41.

with the number of people coming through but in ten years time there

:57:42.:57:44.

will be more legislation and 60 members to scrutinise properly to

:57:45.:57:49.

make sure we have the best possible laws for the people of Wales and to

:57:50.:57:55.

scrutinise the government, it's a big ask and I strongly believe as

:57:56.:58:00.

Presiding Officer that we need at least 80 members. Let's assess the

:58:01.:58:10.

Alun Davies affair. They all agreed he needed to go but the opposition

:58:11.:58:14.

clearly feel there are more questions. It was a very unusual

:58:15.:58:21.

event for a Cabinet minister to be sacked in the way he was. Alun

:58:22.:58:27.

Davies was a relatively young minister and a man who can -- most

:58:28.:58:31.

people considered in the future in politics in Wales. He was in the

:58:32.:58:36.

process of carrying out changes to the way the farming industry is

:58:37.:58:40.

funded. And he's gone. It doesn't look as if he coming back. I base

:58:41.:58:45.

that on the interview we did with Carwyn Jones in the week. The first

:58:46.:58:51.

some kind of road to Damascus moment to bring Alun Davies back into his

:58:52.:58:57.

Cabinet. -- first Minister. Some people say it has been a feeding

:58:58.:59:01.

frenzy in the last week and it has resembled Westminster more. I don't

:59:02.:59:09.

think anybody should be surprised by the response from the opposition

:59:10.:59:11.

parties. This is a minister who broke the rules by trying to dig out

:59:12.:59:16.

information he should not have about the opposition party a semi-members

:59:17.:59:21.

as two of the opposition party leaders. We picked up there on the

:59:22.:59:32.

row over the state of the NHS and reform of local. Do things like the

:59:33.:59:37.

Alun Davies story destabilise the government and make it more

:59:38.:59:40.

difficult for Carwyn Jones to make reforms? He has lost Alun Davies and

:59:41.:59:45.

a year ago he lost Leighton Andrews. Different circumstances but those

:59:46.:59:51.

two ministers had an ability to shake things up and they were not

:59:52.:59:58.

afraid to challenge the lobby of the portfolios they represented. That

:59:59.:00:06.

was useful for Carwyn Jones. A common criticism is that the Welsh

:00:07.:00:11.

Government is too cosy and the religion should with the unions and

:00:12.:00:16.

civil servants is too cosy. He has lost two ministers and he will be

:00:17.:00:21.

mindful of that in terms of a reshuffle that we will expect at

:00:22.:00:26.

some stage after the summer recess. Thank you very much for joining us.

:00:27.:00:30.

And that's all from me this week and until the autumn,

:00:31.:00:33.

will keep a bit safer. That is all the time we have.

:00:34.:00:48.

So, plenty happening in Parliament this coming week, including

:00:49.:00:50.

a controversial bill to make so-called assisted dying legal and

:00:51.:00:53.

Lord Carey has intervened in the assisted dying debate. Will it make

:00:54.:01:13.

a difference? It will make a difference because we have

:01:14.:01:20.

established in the House of Lords, I am not sure who they speak for and

:01:21.:01:25.

why they should have a privileged position, but he was a big opponent

:01:26.:01:33.

and has made a change of heart. The fact that the Daily Mail has printed

:01:34.:01:36.

this shows this is a big intervention. The Bill being pushed

:01:37.:01:48.

through, is it now on the agenda? I think it is. There are international

:01:49.:01:54.

examples of assisted dying elsewhere. The state of Oregon

:01:55.:01:59.

passed a Bill similar to this in the 1990s and things have not got out of

:02:00.:02:04.

control. That has not been an expansion or abuse. It has settled

:02:05.:02:07.

down and become part of the furniture. That makes it easier for

:02:08.:02:16.

this Bill, to make the case for it. Religious people may still have a

:02:17.:02:20.

principled objection but most other people have a practical objection,

:02:21.:02:23.

which is how to put in place safeguards to deal with unscrupulous

:02:24.:02:26.

relatives or anyone else who wants to abuse this right? Once a

:02:27.:02:31.

controversial issue is only being opposed for practical reasons it is

:02:32.:02:36.

on its way to getting its way. What is the division, is it the Church

:02:37.:02:40.

against everybody else? Is it a right and left division? What is

:02:41.:02:48.

stopping it? It is a very difficult moral issue and there are people who

:02:49.:02:53.

can have genuinely held Christian beliefs or non-Christian beliefs who

:02:54.:02:59.

can be on both sides. I think that the Lord Carey intervention is

:03:00.:03:03.

potentially a game changer not just because he is a former Archbishop of

:03:04.:03:07.

Canterbury but because he was on the Evan Jellicoe side of the Church of

:03:08.:03:11.

England. That is quite a big move. The response was to say, please

:03:12.:03:18.

withdraw your bell and let us have a royal Commission. The Supreme Court

:03:19.:03:23.

kicked the ball back to Parliament when they rejected the cases of

:03:24.:03:27.

three people who had been taking the case and said, we could say that

:03:28.:03:33.

banning the right to life is against the European Court of Human Rights,

:03:34.:03:38.

but it is a moral issue and an issue for Parliament. Parliament needs to

:03:39.:03:47.

decide. The data act that is going to be pushed through Parliament. In

:03:48.:03:52.

record time. To comply with a European court judgement. Tom Watson

:03:53.:04:00.

and David Davis, some dissent. Are you so prized with how united the

:04:01.:04:05.

establishment, left, right and centre is? No. There is a great

:04:06.:04:12.

quote saying this has been enacted under the something must be done act

:04:13.:04:17.

and that captures it exactly. Even Cameron says he does not want to

:04:18.:04:23.

look people in the eye and say that he did not do everything he could.

:04:24.:04:27.

There is no end to the power of surveillance. It is all was about

:04:28.:04:31.

drawing a distinction. I am always suspicious when politicians look

:04:32.:04:35.

something up and said, we have all agreed. Are there at the centre is

:04:36.:04:42.

right or is the political establishment right? I think the

:04:43.:04:51.

establishment is right. I think it is stronger than other issues. We

:04:52.:04:57.

are in a unique position where all three political parties have

:04:58.:04:59.

relatively recent experience of government so they now that security

:05:00.:05:04.

threats are not made up by unscrupulous people. The legislation

:05:05.:05:11.

being proposed is not dramatic, it is to fill a gap that was created. I

:05:12.:05:17.

do not see the political controversy. All three political

:05:18.:05:23.

parties support it. David Davis and Liberty are against that, and always

:05:24.:05:31.

are. Would you not have expected... The Lib Dems are in government, but

:05:32.:05:35.

a bit more rebellion on the Labour backbenches? There is no political

:05:36.:05:42.

controversy put outside parliament there's quite a lot of controversy

:05:43.:05:48.

about this. My paper has taken an interest in this. It is interesting,

:05:49.:05:54.

it does not feel, it is not a 1950s, three public school boys

:05:55.:06:03.

setting, let us have this deal. The Liberal Democrats and Labour have

:06:04.:06:07.

serious questions. There's going to be a sunset clause that will run out

:06:08.:06:14.

in 2016. The Liberal Democrats, who asked pretty tough questions, have

:06:15.:06:20.

said there are assurances. Ed Miliband did not go to public

:06:21.:06:21.

school. For many English football fans,

:06:22.:06:25.

tonight's World Cup final presents How do you pick

:06:26.:06:27.

between two traditional foes Well, if you're

:06:28.:06:31.

a political obsessive, like these three, you could always back the

:06:32.:06:34.

nation according to how it votes. The website LabourList has produced

:06:35.:06:37.

a political guide to the tournament. At the beginning of the tournament,

:06:38.:06:52.

it was a fairly balanced playing field politically with 15 left wing

:06:53.:06:57.

and 17 right-wing countries. England found themselves isolated in a group

:06:58.:07:01.

with three left-wing countries. That was the least of their problems.

:07:02.:07:07.

There was a clear domination of democratic regimes over

:07:08.:07:09.

authoritarian with only six of oratory and countries making it

:07:10.:07:12.

through to the finals and the only all authoritarian tie was dubbed the

:07:13.:07:22.

worst match of the World Cup. By the second round 16 teams remained. The

:07:23.:07:26.

left had a clear advantage with nine, seven from the right and

:07:27.:07:31.

authoritarian countries all but wiped out. Two representatives

:07:32.:07:36.

remained. Both were beaten by European democracies. By the

:07:37.:07:44.

semi-finals, all was even Stephen. A right-wing Protestant Europe taking

:07:45.:07:51.

on Catholics South America. With one victory apiece, Germany knocking out

:07:52.:07:56.

Brazil and Argentina beating the Dutch, tonight's final repeats that

:07:57.:08:01.

pattern. Who will win? Angela Merkel's Germany or Argentina?

:08:02.:08:11.

We're joined now by Britain's only Labour adviser

:08:12.:08:13.

Should we read political significance in to the fact that the

:08:14.:08:27.

only time England has won the World Cup was under a Labour government?

:08:28.:08:32.

Of course. The problem is we did not qualify for Euro 2008 when it was a

:08:33.:08:37.

Labour government. We have had some pretty shoddy results under a Labour

:08:38.:08:43.

government. As someone under the left, are you backing Argentina?

:08:44.:08:47.

Absolutely not. I do not think it has anything to do with politics. It

:08:48.:08:53.

is a bit of fun. People should choose it is Don Hoop plays the best

:08:54.:09:01.

football and the Germans have been fantastic. They were great in 2010

:09:02.:09:06.

as well. They started this model in 2008 and that is the sort of thing

:09:07.:09:11.

people should be supporting. Who should a Eurosceptic support? I

:09:12.:09:16.

would not say Argentina because that is the country that has tried to

:09:17.:09:21.

seize British sovereign territory within my lifetime. You were not

:09:22.:09:29.

around for the Blitz. Believe it or not, I was not. There is a strong

:09:30.:09:33.

political case to support Germany. They are probably going to win the

:09:34.:09:45.

World Cup with a clear of -- with players of Polish origin. That sort

:09:46.:09:49.

of cultural change they have forced themselves to go through... You talk

:09:50.:09:57.

about them being right wing, but in fact the way that the German league

:09:58.:10:03.

is structured, and I am an expert, is based on ownership. It is very

:10:04.:10:08.

different from the Premier League. It is about football as a usual

:10:09.:10:17.

good. The ticket prices are lower. The fans are involved in running the

:10:18.:10:25.

club. It is a model that all English football clubs should emulate.

:10:26.:10:28.

Germany had a strong football team under centre right governments and

:10:29.:10:33.

centre left governments and a coalition. A strong football team

:10:34.:10:45.

and a strong economy. The Conservative MP who is the arch

:10:46.:10:49.

Eurosceptic wanted to get us out of the European Union and was for a few

:10:50.:10:51.

weeks ago when people were making jokes about Jean-Claude Juncker, he

:10:52.:10:58.

was outraged and said you should not do that, so he could happily support

:10:59.:11:04.

Germany. What was interesting about the authoritarian and democratic

:11:05.:11:09.

regimes, what is great is that the World Cup is run by this open and

:11:10.:11:21.

democratic organisation Fifa. It is similar to the EU in many regards.

:11:22.:11:27.

Two countries led by women. Maybe gender is the thing. We did not win

:11:28.:11:36.

under Margaret Thatcher. There's one big difference with the EU, you

:11:37.:11:41.

cannot flog six Dom Acta gets to go to a European summit. Did you know

:11:42.:11:49.

that Italy won two world cups under Mussolini? Can we draw any

:11:50.:11:58.

conclusions between a political system and the performance of the

:11:59.:12:04.

football team? You can draw certain parallels between maybe national

:12:05.:12:07.

cliches, so the Germans are efficient and effective, which might

:12:08.:12:15.

reflect and the English are very polite so we let everyone score

:12:16.:12:19.

first and go into the second round. We put ourselves at the back of the

:12:20.:12:24.

queue. Is England going to qualify for the European? We are going to

:12:25.:12:36.

win the European Championship. The first country Scotland have to play

:12:37.:12:39.

is Germany. What could possibly go wrong? Who is going to win? Germany.

:12:40.:12:52.

Germany. I am going to put a few bob on Argentina. Are you going to be

:12:53.:12:56.

watching? Absolutely. Thank you. This is the last Sunday Politics

:12:57.:13:03.

for the summer. But we'll be back in early autumn

:13:04.:13:07.

and our first programme will be live from Scotland,

:13:08.:13:11.

the weekend before the referendum The Daily Politics is back tomorrow

:13:12.:13:17.

at noon and we'll bring you the last PMQs before the summer

:13:18.:13:22.

on Wednesday morning from 11:30am. Remember, if it's Sunday,

:13:23.:13:25.

it's the Sunday Politics, unless

:13:26.:13:28.

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