24/05/2014 The Papers

Bank and Israel. Coming up in the film review, the

X`Men come back to fight another battle of future past. ``The Film

Review. Hello and welcome to our look ahead

to what the the papers will be bringing us tomorrow. With me are

Yasmin Alibhai`Brown, columnist from the Independent and Martin Bentham

from the London Evening Standard. They have swapped places, if you are

not confused, I am! Tomorrow's front pages, starting with The Observer,

claiming that the UKIP leader, Nigel Farage, will use his party's local

election success as a springboard to draw up 20 parliamentary seats to

target at next year's general election. The Independent on

Sunday's front page gives coverage to calls for Nick Clegg, the Lib Dem

leader, to stand down. The Sunday Telegraph reports on the ongoing row

over Prince Charles' comments about Russia's President Vladimir Putin.

The Sunday Times leads on a story about calls from some Conservative

MPs for an early referendum on Britain's membership of the EU. The

Mail on Sunday devotes it's entire front page to a picture of the man

suspected of killing six people in a series of drive`by shootings. And

the Express also covers the shooting, but it's main story

relates to the rising value of the pound, which the paper says is good

news for British holiday`makers. So let's begin. We will start with

some of the inside pages of The Sun, saying how UKIP will put Ed number

ten. A poll boosts Labour because they will defect to the other

parties. `` will put Ed Miliband in number ten. This is the poll by Lord

Ashcroft, the Conservative peer who does a lot of polling for the

Conservative party to see how they stand. He has looked at these 26 key

seats and found that there would be a 12% labour advantage in those

seats. Therefore, it runs down a whole raft of them here in the

graphic, as it shows here, they will be gaining a great number of the

Conservative target seats and various Labour target seats that the

Conservatives would have to win. What he is saying is that because

UKIP are taking some votes from the Tories, that will therefore allow

Labour to win Tory seats. The overall effect is that according to

this 83 Tory MPs could lose their seats in what is described as an

election night bloodbath. We were talking last night about how if the

whole of the UK had voted and the results from the local elections...

Labour would have ended with 31% of the vote which would not have been

enough. You cannot extrapolate, fewer people turn up for local

elections. There was a low turnout. Not as low as we have known it

before. On the same page there was an interesting column by Louise

Mensch who was a Tory MP and has now left. She says this and I agree with

that. She talks about that conservatives can make a comeback. I

am not a Tory. I think we know that! I would vote for the Tories to

keep out UKIP, I would. I would do that. What she says is that there is

a way of the Conservatives being taken seriously and what she calls"

the sexist, racist party not getting its way" . That is an important

message. Coming from an ex` Tory MP. A very good column, read it! We do

not know, that those who have voted to send a message to the main

parties in the local elections, would be as bold in the general

election. We don't. Of course, it is more difficult for UKIP, you can

vote for it UKIP councillor who could have a chance of getting in,

it would be harder for them to get a Westminster seat. When it comes to

the serious matter of the government, it could be that you

could be that UKIP effect is less potent than in this election. On the

other hand, we would not take that for granted. When you have a lot of

fairly tight seats, at every election, there are always a lot. It

does not take a great deal of movement in each of those seats to

change the election result quite dramatically. That is one of the key

thing is, it is hard to predict this in the coming general election. They

need good candidates, as far as we know, we have Christine and Neil

Hamilton among their favourite people. There are some problems

here. Nigel Farage is a brilliant politician. But, do they have them?

That could be the case, that they lack that candidates. It probably

is. But if they take 2000 or 3000 votes, and there is a protest vote,

this poll suggests, and one of the great fears that is motivating Tory

MPs and worrying Labour MPs, that a few thousand votes to UKIP could

make the difference between a Labour or Tory win. It could have a big

impact through the country. In the next general election. All of these

unintended consequences are very interesting. Let's have a look at

another potential consequence in the Sunday express. Osborne targets

voters in the North. An exclusive here, saying that George Osborne is

bound to make the Conservative party the alternative in the north. This

is where the Conservatives want to capitalise, I'm Labour losses in

their traditional heartlands. It is a real mixup. There are some

difficult places for Labour. Rotherham was one. If you look at

the history that, it is not a happy picture. It is very particular to

Rotherham. MPs have not been entirely honest, et cetera.

Interestingly, in the same piece, they would like David Davis to take

on UKIP. Because he is straight talking, he is not an Eton boy, and

it sounds like a lot of people who have voted for UKIP. This is the

man, Martin, who lost the leadership battle as we remember, to David

Cameron. He did, and yes, he might have a role, although I do not think

that he is entirely popular within the leadership of the Tory party.

Whether he gets the chance to come in is another matter. Going back to

the Osborne thing here, she talks about targeting Northern voters and

so on. `` he talks. It is a huge gap for the Tories. They do not have a

big gap in any of the northern cities. In rural and `` in rural

areas, they have some MPs. Although he wants to target the voters, it

does not say how they will do it. Of course they want to do it and need

to because they cannot be a party entirely. They have not had the time

to think about how they can do it, it has only been a couple of days.

The North need not pay any more taxes before the next election, or

something like that! The Independent on Sunday looks at the pack ``

impact on Liberal Democrats. In a bid to oust Nick Clegg, some of his

colleagues, and one of them we spoke to tonight, sticking their necks

out, saying he is nice, but he has to go. Will it be the downfall of

him? The local elections, are they traditionally the downfall of a

party leader? Not always are not necessarily. It is so close to the

election it will be very difficult for the Liberal Democrats to

jettison Nick Clegg and they might have been Vince Cable in his place.

Will that solve their problems? I don't know. Schweinsteiger will

fight the election for them, they have to go with that. `` macro ``

Nick Clegg will fight for them. It will have an impact on how the

election will go for them. If they lose their MEPs, which people are

predicting, then there will be a big crisis, I think, in the Liberal

Democrat party. The Liberal Democrats have given us a response

tonight. A spokesman for the party saying that these concerns will be

taken seriously over the leadership issue, but the party should not have

its message to supported over need is infighting. After a difficult

election, some colleagues will have concerns but we should discuss them

collectively, as the Liberal Democrats do. We knew that the

elections would be tough and it is disappointing that dedicated

councillors have lost their seats. Miklik's made the case for Europe ``

Nick Clegg has made. We had those divisive TV and radio debate is not

so long ago. We will move away, finally, from the elections. Not for

long, we have European election results tomorrow. The Sunday Times,

parents sue for term time holidays. A group of families are mounting a

legal challenge against Michael Gove 's crackdown on families taking

holidays during term time. Not so long ago, you could take a week or

two, asked a head teacher for permission, but they are trained to

stab attack and parents are unhappy. It has been going on for a long

time, `` they are trying to crack down. 200,000 parents have signed

this petition but every year, 24,000 children skip school every day to go

on family breaks. You can understand why, costs go up over the holidays.

The Prime Minister was saying that he thinks that holiday companies are

cashing in. That is quite ridiculous for a Conservative to say that! Try

to go on holiday at a particular time, things go up at weekends

rather than during the week. This is an absurd case to take up. Policies

are policies, children should not be taken out during term time. The

problem is, what has happened, is that since they have recording,

quite a long time ago now, statistics on truancy and

authorised, unauthorised absences. Schools are measured on truancy, and

this counts as truancy. As you were saying, they used to be some

discretion shown if your child was turning up regularly and they were

performing well and so on at school. A blind eye would be turned. There

is also a class issue. There have been many cases of poorer families,

working class families, being fined for truancy of their children. Some

head teachers would recognise the difference between a family having a

holiday and not having a holiday. Then they would say...? There should

be room for everybody. Taking children out of school is a bad

idea. We have all wanted to do it and I have done it, and I understand

that. It is not a good idea. If we are finding some parents, I did the

other parent should get away with it. What if it is an extended

holiday to see family overseas and could be regarded as educational?

There are some schools who are finding ?500 each family who does

this. They had to add that into the cost. It is an expensive business.

Let's move on to the Observer, fair trade goods, not helping the poor.

Sales of certain fair trade products are not benefiting poor farm

workers. Profits are failing to trickle down to much of the

workforce. This is not what we are led to believe happens with fair

trade. You get more for your bag of coffee if it has but mark on it? It

is unfortunate and disturbing. `` has that mark. Having read the full

story, it turns out that part of this is down to the fact that the

fair trade providers are operating in marginalised areas, they tend to

be smaller operators, and there are suggestions that what is compared

here is small farmers against bigger operations who have efficiencies,

and a scale, and maybe that is why the money does not get down to the

staff, because they cannot afford to pay the money. On the other hand,

maybe those farmers would not be in business at all if they were not

supported by the fair trade people. It would be terrible if people

stopped buying fair trade products because of this. This is the

difficulty, use it, then I will not spend my money. That would be awful.

There is a helpful article inside of the Observer which lets us know

where to turn if we want to be ethical shoppers. Again, that could

rest... And reassure people. There will be a knee`jerk reaction. Before

we finish with a little cartoon and give the last word to Matt, let's go

back to a reference that Yasmin made. Two MPs in Rotherham, not

being entirely honest, potentially. I assume you were referring to Denis

McShane, who admitted to filing false receipts. We are not referring

to anyone else from that part of the country. We just need to be

absolutely watertight on that. Finally, the last word, conflating

two different stories. I voted UKIP, says a man in the pub with a

pint in his hand. To be honest, I paid eight Bulgarian to do it for

me. This is what happens. We talk about this all the time. I often

seem to have a remaining cabdriver giving me here. `` Rumanian. We have

a lot of drivers from all over the world taking the home. Thank you

very much. Thank you for coping with all of the election fallout. That is

the papers. At that date, a man has been arrested after a shooting at

the Jewish Museum in Brussels in which three people died. Coming up,

it is time for the film review. Welcome to the Film Review. Taking

us through the latest releases is Mark