04/02/2016 The Papers

Wembley. And a golfer with a robotic swing who turned up and got a hole

in one. That, after the papers. Hello and welcome to our look ahead

to what the the papers will be With me are Benedicte Paviot,

a correspondent from France 24 and Hugh Muir a columnist

for The Guardian. Good evening to you both. Let's have

a quick look at some of those newspapers before we have discussion

of the Syria crisis taking the lead in the Guardian. Russian air strikes

on civilians are pushing tented thousands of people to Turkey and

what it calls the new exodus. The Times says the campaign to leave the

European Union has surged to a record poll lead of nine point. It

says voters have rejected David Cameron's renegotiation. Metro

thinks wiki links Julian Assange is in the middle of the legal farce.

Child-abuse allegations are the focus in the telegraph's main

report. It says the former head of the Army, Lord Bramall, was forced

to live under the weight of false allegations for nearly a year

because of police failure. The independent accuses top city law

firms of running an extortion racket. It says bills of up to ?1100

an hour are denying people justice. The Financial Times leads with

losses for credit Suisse. It says it is its lowest point in nearly a

quarter of a century. The Mirror says the government cuts to social

care mean thousands of patients ready to be released from hospital.

Stay there because they have nowhere to go. The express also leads with

the European Union. Suggesting 92 of people want to leave the European

the Times. EU out campaign surges to the Times. EU out campaign surges to

record lead. Things seem to be going rather wrong for Mr Cameron? Yes, we

don't know the date yet of this referendum. Will it be in June or

not? We do know that the campaign to leave the European Union has been

handed its biggest lead in this poll. This you got served eight

finds that 45% of people will vote to leave the EU compared with 36%

who want to remain. The Times are who want to remain. The Times are

pointing out while 19% do not know or would not vote, if you exclude

the people who don't know, it means 56% want to leave, while 44% want to

remain. A 9-point lead for the leave campaign. That is very significant.

What's interesting is the biggest lead for the out of ten points was

last recorded in January, 2014. It seems the satisfaction of the Prime

Minister with the deal he has obtained isn't working. This is

before, let's remember, the formal campaign stages. We don't even know

if the deal will be agreed by the other EU members that that crunch

summit on the 18th and 19th of February. We are in the preamble

stage so I do think David Cameron will be very surprised by this. What

it does tell you is things are still very much in flux. Even this poll

found that the public back the individual measures that were part

of the draft agreement that David Cameron came back with. They don't

seem to like the package, but they don't mind the individual elements

of that package. What I find intriguing about this, it seems to

me reading the papers that are allegedly loyal to the

Conservatives, are among the most vicious critics of Mr Cameron. That

can't be helping his case. It was great extraordinary coverage, the

Daily Mail today with who will speak for England yelp of pain and all the

other headlines have been very critical. In a way, we don't know

when the polling work was done, but if it was impacted upon by that one

wouldn't be surprised. But I think the Prime Minister will think there

is a long way to go. There are some signs of complacency here. The Times

says Lord Rose thinks ultimately there will be a vote to remain

inside the EU higher substantial margin. Stuart Rose? Yes, and even

if he thinks that I don't know if it is wise to say at this stage.

Complacency not wanted on the voyage. The Telegraph, that

wonderful newspaper headline with the word here. Tory grassroots fewer

real. What is going on? Apart from Eurosceptic fury, who will never be

satisfied, always know their position before any campaign. This

is a reaction to David Cameron saying yesterday in Parliament the

fact that people, that backbench MPs should vote with their hearts. This

is particularly meant the Eurosceptic MPs, and not listen to

their constituency. It seems there is a real problem of Tory candidates

in the mail raw and local elections in May not having people to go out

campaign for them. Another problem here. This is over the Europe stance

of Mr Cameron and his answering of those questions yesterday. I think

it is another parliamentary dilemma. Do you vote for MPs to go to

Parliament and use their judgment or vote for them as delegates? I think

that was a point he was making. In a way he was clutching defeat from the

jaws of victory. He was quite commanding in outlining the details

of the deal. We know David Cameron has been in trouble with his

constituencies before, quite early in his leadership you try to impose

on a list of candidates on different constituencies. He met a lot of

resistance. It is not the first time he has upset them. They do not like

it. Europe is clearly a divisive issue. I think we can predict it

will not just be until the referendum. I do not think it will

draw a line under it after all, whatever the result. I think there

is a great worry. I was in Paris yesterday and with representatives

in real estate and land use, from 25 different countries, there is real

concern, you can feel it in the business community, not just in

France but across the EU and world, watching very carefully what is

happening in the United Kingdom. Especially with the negative from

pages and comments, as if written has made its mind up. I think you

just need to point out Goldman Sachs in the Daily Telegraph article are

warning that the pound could lose a fifth of its value if the UK decides

to leave the EU. I think there are a lot of implications and people need

to think very carefully. Before they cast their vote. A big investment

bank, there are reputation not very high. Economic predictions rarely

turn out to be accurate. Yes, who predicted the banking crisis? Many

people sailed Mutley all come down to predictions like that from big

companies like that, when the focus of the debate becomes about jobs and

about employment and about the economy. Upon that the decision will

turn. The people who don't know play a big role. The 19 or 20%. That is

who the remain on leave party need to convince. How many people will

vote? That will be critical. We don't have a lot of time, more time

at 11:30pm. Just quickly, the metro, fast as UN backs Julian Assange.

Most people will think, United Nations, what do they have to do

with Julian Assange banged up in the embassy? An application was made to

them to the effect that he had been detained arbitrarily. I don't think

the British government thought this application had had much of a

prayer. In fact, it is only leaked so far, no confirmation, but it

looks as if they are going to support Julian Assange's position,

that he has been arbitrarily detained. Hasn't he detained

himself? That is the Foreign Office's position, he chose to go

into the Ecuadorian Embassy, and that doesn't imply a detention in

any way. I think his argument is I was forced into this position, and

unfairly so. They seem to have accepted that. But it is not

binding. Not legally binding. Indeed not. I don't know if it will do him

much good, except in terms of PR. He has been making full use of it. Do

you think he will come out of the door to have the cuffs put on

Godsmark it has cost ?10 million. The fact of the matter is, the

timing of his tweet was rather interesting. The UN official report

is due to come out tomorrow. It is not legally binding. It is somewhat

of a PR coup, but only minutes before we had about the leak, Julian

Assange, from the Ecuadorian empathy were saying, I will come out, if it

turns against me, the UN decision... But now he is expecting his passport

back and wants to be able to fly to Ecuador. The British government's

position is very clear. They are bound with the European Arrest

Warrant to detain him, if he comes out of the Ecuadorian Embassy, where

he cannot be got at. If he does, then yes, he will be arrested. That

is the British position and the Swedes are not backing down.

Whatever the Swedish is for that, I don't know! We will have another go

at 11:30pm. For the moment, thank you both. We will be back at 11:30pm

to look at the stories making tomorrow morning's from pages.

Coming up next, time for Sportsday.