25/06/2016 The Papers

The Papers with Martine Croxall and her guests.

Hello and welcome to our look ahead to what the papers will be

bringing us tomorrow.

With me here in the studio is Toby Young, Associate Editor

for The Spectator, and political commentator, Jo Philips.

And joining us from Edinburgh is David Torrance

columnist for The Herald.

Tomorrow's front pages, starting with

The Daily Mail front page celebrates the Leave vote -

their picture has jubilant crowds and the headline "Take a bow

Britain."

The Express has more on the resignation of David Cameron

and names Boris Johnson as the favourite to take over

as prime minister.

The Times describes today's events as a "Brexit Earthquake."

It also features a picture of David Cameron and his wife

outside 10 Downing Street.

The Telegraph describes yesterday's vote as the "Birth

of a New Britain."

It says Boris Johnson and Michael Gove are preparing a bid

to take control of the Conservative party.

The Guardian simply says: "Over and Out" as it wraps up key events

from today's decision to leave the EU.

The Daily Mirror has a picture of an anguished looking

Samantha Cameron as she watches her husband resign -

asking "So what the hell happens now?"

The Sun focusses on the career of David Cameron and why he has

decided to quit.

And the Scottish Daily Mail has the headline: "Disunited Kingdom."

It says the result of today's referendum has torn Britain apart.

Last night, about 10:00 o'clock, Nigel Farage called it for Remain,

then changed his mind, when we you convinced?

Well, I suppose the first indication that the exit poll and the poll that

Ipsos MORI had done on the day - both of which indicated that Remain

win quite comfortably - the first indication

that they were wrong was the result from Sunderland.

I mean, first the result from Newcastle in which Remain won

but not by the margin it was expected to and then

the result from Sunderland in which Leave won by a far greater

margin than it needed to if Leave were to win overall.

Let's look t The Times, one of our first front pages,

"Brexit Earthquake" - there's a picture of the Camerons

outside Number 10.

The Prime Minister announces his resignation.

Vote to leave threatens break-up of the UK.

David, I want to come to the idea of a second independence referendum

a little bit later if we can, but the fact is, the UK is massively

divided and Scotland already looks like another country?

Yes, this is part of an ongoing process.

I have covered all these elections and referendums for the past few

years - it's all catching up with me tonight,

I can tell you.

CHUCKLES.

It doesn't feel like another country in many ways and you cannot argue

with the differential vote like that.

The fact remains that Scotland voted overwhelmingly for Remain

although not to gloss over 38% of Scots who did back Leave -

not an insignificant minority.

Northern Ireland backed Remain and yet south, the other two

quarters of the country, voted decisively for Leave.

I say decisively but it was quite narrow.

And that just changes the context completely.

It changes the frame of reference for all these debates we've had over

the past few years about Scottish independence, about the future

of the UK.

It also makes you question opinion opinion polls again and again?

Yes, I remember talking not so many days ago, weeks ago,

about the pressure on the pollsters because they got it so wrong.

Even the private polling that hedge funds and investment banks

were doing were still not accurate because we saw that great surge

yesterday on the money market that then tumbled overnight

and then came back.

Clearly, they were banking on Remain, just by a whisker.

There will be a lot of questions about the polling but I still think

many, many people went to the polling booth yesterday

and actually had not made up their mind until they got in there.

I mean, every conversation that any of us have had -

and it is fantastic that it has energised people talking

about politics on something about such huge importance

for generations to come - but there were still a lot of people

wobbling on the brink.

The Daily Mail, says it has published a historic edition,

"Take a bow Britain."

It was the day the quiet people of Britain rose up

against an arrogant, out-of-touch political class

and a contemptuous Brussels elite.

It goes on to talk about the tumultuous events of our time.

Tim Farron, the Democrats leader, talking today about the fact that

given that this has divided people so deeply, now is the time

to try to bring everybody together but how do we do that?

Precisely.

As Peter Hennessy said earlier today - the constitutional historian -

this is about resetting the dials and there is a great chance here,

actually, for the reshaping of British politics.

It is absolutely ridiculous, with no sense of irony,

that The Mail talks about the quiet people of Britain rising up

against an arrogant out-of-touch political class and then goes

on page after page praising Michael Gove and Boris Johnson

who are part of the political class.

It is clear, utter nonsense but what I think is needed is a lot

less of these jingoistic celebration and a lot of sensible calm

what happens next, it is about negotiations.

What is the plan?

It is true that Michael Gove and Boris Johnson are members

of the political class but it is also true

that they managed to harness a popular revolt against

the establishment and one of the reason Remain did not do

better is because David Cameron made no attempt to try and dress up

the Remain campaign as anything other than the establishment

defending the status quo.

He made a mistake by lining up the IMF, the Treasury,

the president of the US and it enabled Boris and Michael to whip up

popular resentment and it is not just a phenomenon confined

to Britain, you see it across America and Europe as well.

How much have the winners been able to celebrate given the fact

immediately Nigel Farage was asked when does the NHS get the money,

when does immigration get kerned and the answer is our,

not yet or maybe not ever.

Nigel Farage was not part of the official campaign.

He is not an MP.

We are not about to find ourselves in Nigel Farage's Britain...

But a lot of people will actually say that Nigel Farage has dominated.

He is the person that has energised and that if it was not for him

we would never have had a referendum.

Scotland went through this with a close vote with the independence

referendum, arguably Scotland was very divided.

How deeply have those divisions remained over the last few months?

There are two polorised cases.

People who lost will tell you it was very divisive and nasty

on the winning side would tell you it was a festival

of democracy and uplifting.

The truth is somewhere in between.

Both accounts are caricatures.

In a polarised referendum, which is essentially

about existential question of who you are, your identity

and the future of the country.

Of course, it is going to be divisive.

There is no room for nuance or a middle way.

My overwhelming sense was deja vu.

Eve nthe lines were the same.

The delegitimisation of experts and the media and facts

was all horribly familiar but they were good signs as well.

The turnout was high.

Not as it was a few years ago in Scotland but previously

it was a much more salient issue but anything that engages

the proportion of the election...

The other thing that came out of the Scottish referendum is this

rejuvenation with new leaders.

We saw the demise of Murphy but look at Davidson coming out

as a new superstar.

It is quite striking that the two most impressive operators

in the British Isles are Davidson and the First Minister Nicola

Sturgeon.

Cast your mind back to 1999 when the devolusion experiment

was first embarked upon.

It was said that Scottish politicians will no longer

have a place in the UK stage but turned out to be far

from the truth

Although it looks very different now, we have a very

high profile figure.

The Daily Express and The Sun, "We are out of the EU."

The Express comes to us pretty early on.

Boris as next PM.

We do not know.

And we can gloss over the David Cameron story.

Why should he hang around?

Given that he does not believe in Britain's withdrawal from the EU

and given that there is going to be a lot of hard work to be done

to work out what the new settlement is, what the new relationship

is with the EU, it is understandable he did not want to do that.

But he is the one who is responsible for bringing the referendum

in the first place.

He did not need to.

He could have said, I'm here to govern.

He may not have won the election if he had not agreed

to hold the referendum.

One of the ways the story is reported is slightly

jumping the gun.

The headline, we are out of the EU.

Everywhere it has been reported as a foregone conclusion.

That has been the will of British people but it is much more likely

I think that the leaders of the European Union will now come

back and make a different offer, some form of associate membership

which is probably what David Cameron should have gone for.

Surely, if that is the case, people who voted to get out,

will say that is not what we voted for.

As of yet, Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty has

not been invoked.

It does not have to be triggered for ages and ages.

We are ready had various European leaders are saying,

you decided to go so go and you can understand that they want to do it

and you can also understand the thinking behind making it

complicated for us.

In other European countries, as we have seen by the congratulations

by Le Pen and other right wing parties to sway other right wing

nations to do the same.

Of course they want negotiations quite quickly because there are also

elections coming up in Spain, Holland and France next year

but this is about who is going to negotiate.

Clearly, David Cameron who has already said long before this,

that he would step down before the end of this Parliament cannot be

in a position to negotiate and it is a two-year minimum deal

if we use Article 50.

There is an article in the FT which talks about whether Scotland

or even Northern Ireland could do what Denmark has done an it stayed

stayed

in their EU but parts of his kingdom, Greenland,

decided to leave.

The Fera Islands as well.

That is in a similar situation.

The point to make is the European Union is a highly

flexible political organisation and even if we set out...

And the truth is, I am old enough to remember German reunification,

it was dealt with ii in a matter of months.

A newly expanded Germany.

I think they called it internal enlargement.

I think, the First Minister spoke about this this morning,

she is going to engage directly with Brussell and she will seek

what the mood is there and how willing they are to be flexible

in their approach to the bits of the UK, and it might even include

London...

The Mirror says, what happens now?

Day one of Brexit Britain.

Of course the pound fell sharply, but then there was a rally and be

-- we saw a huge amount wiped off shares and the losses

were catastrophic, we were told.

Some people who voted for Leave were surprised that this had

happene and then they said, if I had known that this

was going to happen and my vote would actually count

I would have voted to Remain.

How naive have some people been?

I think taking back your democratic rights does take courage

because there are always risks involved.

Sometimes, the following day, when you become more aware

of what those risks are, you get a bit of buyers' remorse.

But in time I think people won't regret their decision.

The FTSE 100 did finish 2% up on the week.

But what is the plan?

I heard Brexit campaigners saying that what we need to do is gather

round us some experts, business leaders and lawyers.

But a lot of people were saying, the reason I voted to leave

is because I am sick of hearing from experts.

Well, the plan, as Boris set out in his original column

in the Daily Telegraph, in which he declared

that he would be campaigning for Leave, was to try and get

the British public to reject the EU in the hope that the EU would then

come back with an offer not just for us but for everyone.

I think the reason why that would fly is because the result

was so close and you can't have an outcome which just

favours one side.

It has got to be a compromise.

Because it was so close?

Yes, there would then be a second referundum on whether to embrace

the new offer on the table.

I don't think that Nicola Sturgeon is going to trigger a second

referendum before she knows what the final agreement

between Britain and the EU would be.

Wouldn't that be sensible?

Of course it would, but it is high stakes.

It would be high stakes.

Extremely high stakes.

And it would be sensible, to go back to your analogy,

there should be a buyer's cooling off period.

It is frightening.

Did you want to take out the extra warranty?

Not at that price!

No, alright.

But in actual fact there will be people who don't realise

what they voted for, which doesn't mean

they are stupid or ignorant,

it just means in the noise over the last few weeks of people

shouting and counter claims and what has been a very badtempered

campaign, it's amazing so many people turned out to vote.

But they do often count on people not turning

out, don't they?

Now there needs to be a bit of time and reflection with precisely that,

but does Europe want us to stay that badly?

Do they want Jeremy Corbyn or Boris Johnson

as Prime Minister?

I think unless they come up with a 2-tiered system EU

is destined to collapse as there is no appetite among

the public of so many European countries to be part

of a united Europe.

Let's look at pages six and seven of the Mail.

Will Boris Grab the Crown?

It talks about who the runners and riders are, the people who may

or may not want to throw their hat in the ring.

David, how is this looked upon?

We know the Conservatives in Westminster elections

don't do well.

Who is the money on up there for becoming the Labour leader?

Because Jeremy Corbyn isn't necessarily looking

particularly safe, is he?

Well, yeah, but this again highlights the growing distance

between Scotland and England.

Ruth Davidson a few days ago was having a very effective pop

at Boris Johnson at Wembley Stadium, so I think that is one to watch.

Does she declare independence effectively from the UK Conservative

Party, if Boris Johnson, who she clearly doesn't

like, becomes leader?

And also from Labour's perspective, Scottish Labour has already been

making noises about becoming even more autonomous from the UK party.

But from up here, it simply doesn't matter who becomes the next leader

of the Conservative party, or the Labour Party.

The direction of travel in Scotland seems absolutely clear and that's

not, as some viewers would know, a partisan point on my part,

it is just how it feels.

The Daily Record, which we don't have here, a Labour supporting paper

for decades, is backing a second referendum.

Which we will come to!

But it just doesn't matter who the next leader is.

Does it matter, Toby?

It might matter for the Scots if it was Michael Gove,

because he is a Scot.

Fantasy.

Sorry.

It is not fantasy that he is a Scot.

No, it's a fantasy that it makes any difference.

Interesting that Boris Johnson has been identified as the bookies'

favourite.

At one point you could have been 9:1 against Leave winning last night,

shortly before the Newcastle declaration.

But the Conservative party, and we talk about divisions,

the Conservative party again ripped apart by Europe.

Exactly.

Let's rewind to three or four minutes ago when we were talking

about the sensible option of having a second referendum

on the sensible associated membership.

You are then going to have the same anguish in the Conservative party

about whether you would vote for that.

I think actually whoever leaves the Conservative Party or whoever

leads the Conservative Party to heal this hideous rift.

-- leads.

As promised, a want to talk quickly about the Disunited Kingdom.

The Scottish version of The Daily Mail.

Cameron quits.

Second referendum battle.

I mean, what is it necessary for us to do this today?

We know that she would be thinking about it,

was she under a lot of pressure to start talking

about the second referendum?

Yes, there is certainly pressure within the party.

Some in the party are very impatient for a second referendum.

Alex Salmond is clearly one of them.

Sturgeon is seen as a more cautious figure, but this morning

she went much further than certainly I expected and many other

observers, although there were a lot of caveats.

And it isn't going to happen soon.

I think what she will do is take that timeframe, the formal

notification of withdrawal wouldn't be made for some time.

There's at least two years after that to play with.

I think what the Sturgeon plan is, and this is just conjecture

and I often get these things wrong, is that she will aim for another

independence referendum shortly before the formal point

of withdrawal with the UK and the timing will be such

that it allows Scotland, if independence is sanctioned

in that referendum, to remain a continuing

member of the European Union.

I have to emphasise the idea that any of that is straightforward

or easy is not the case and indeed the First Minister made

that point this morning.

I think she will find it quite difficult to do that.

For one reason, the Prime Minister announced today that she would be

involved in the negotiation process.

That makes it easier.

She has a direct involvement in the process.

But it makes it harder if she sanctions the final

settlement, to then urge the Scottish people to reject it.

Another reason she will find it difficult to call a second

inde ref is if the choice was between the United Kingdom

which has a new and better relationship with the EU,

or Scotland becoming independent and joining the EU,

it would be like a choice between being part of a democratic

union and being part of an undemocratic union.

A democratic union with a hereditary head of state.

Let us quickly... Just a couple of minutes.

This French newspaper, Good Luck, it says, with a picture of Boris

hanging from a zip wire.

It says...

I can tell you.

Stunned?

Paralysed, actually.

And many questions.

Yes many questions in the EU,

in the countries in the EU after victory, led by Boris Johnson.

I mean, you could argue whether this is tongue in cheek.

Good luck, a man on a zip wire, looking like a complete...

Better Boris Johnson that Marine Le Pen,

who is the frontrunner to win the election.

Yes. They are cheering this.

One comment from each of you.

Somebody reading the news.

Good evening.

Aliens didn't land on Earth and Elvis wasn't found alive.

But everything else happened.

It has been monumentally surprising for so many

people, hasn't it?

Yeah and to clinch it all, Donald Trump

was in Scotland today, he arrived this morning,

seemingly unaware of the fact that different parts

of the UK voted differently.

We didn't have aliens or Elvis, but we had Donald Trump.

I think it has been astonishing.

I mean, it is nothing like a general election that

all of us have covered. A staggering day.

One of the peculiarities to add to the Trump thing

is the sequel to Independence Day came out.

That's it for The Papers.

Thank you, Toby Young, Jo Philips and David Torrance.

I know you are all rather tired.

We appreciate you being here.

Coming up next, it's the weather.

Hello.

It's a slightly fresher feel to the weather this weekend,

as the high humidity moves away,

which fuelled the thunderstorms over recent few days.