24/06/2016 The Papers


24/06/2016

No need to wait until tomorrow morning to see what's in the papers - BBC News presents a lively and informed conversation about the next day's headlines.


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Transcript


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Hello and welcome to our look ahead to what the papers will be

:00:14.:00:17.

With me here in the studio is Toby Young, Associate Editor

:00:18.:00:21.

for The Spectator, and political commentator, Jo Philips.

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And joining us from Edinburgh is David Torrance

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Tomorrow's front pages, starting with

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The Daily Mail front page celebrates the Leave vote -

:00:34.:00:35.

their picture has jubilant crowds and the headline "Take a bow

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The Express has more on the resignation of David Cameron

:00:40.:00:43.

and names Boris Johnson as the favourite to take over

:00:44.:00:46.

The Times describes today's events as a "Brexit Earthquake."

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It also features a picture of David Cameron and his wife

:00:51.:00:52.

The Telegraph describes yesterday's vote as the "Birth

:00:53.:00:57.

It says Boris Johnson and Michael Gove are preparing a bid

:00:58.:01:01.

to take control of the Conservative party.

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The Guardian simply says: "Over and Out" as it wraps up key events

:01:06.:01:08.

from today's decision to leave the EU.

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The Daily Mirror has a picture of an anguished looking

:01:12.:01:13.

Samantha Cameron as she watches her husband resign -

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asking 'So what the hell happens now?

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The Sun focusses on the career of David Cameron and why he has

:01:20.:01:22.

And the Scottish Daily Mail has the headline: "Disunited Kingdom."

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It says the result of today's referendum has torn Britain apart.

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Last night, about ten o'clock, Nigel Farage called it for Remain. When we

:01:38.:01:50.

you convinced? The first indication that the exit poll and Ipsos MORI

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were wrong was the result from Sunderland. Also the result from

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Newcastle where Remain on but not by the margin expected. Brexit

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earthquake, the Prime Minister announces his resignation. David, I

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want to come to the idea of a second Independent referendum later but the

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fact is, the UK is massively divided and Scotland already looks like

:02:36.:02:42.

another country? Yes, this is part of an ongoing process. I have

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covered this for the past few years. It doesn't feel like another country

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and you cannot argue with the differential vote like that.

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Scotland voted overwhelmingly for Remain although 40% did back Leave.

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The other two quarters of the country, south, voted decisively for

:03:16.:03:24.

the Mac that I say decisively but it was quite narrow. -- Leave. It makes

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it question opinion polls again and again? Yes, I remember talking not

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so many days ago about the pressure on the pollsters because they got it

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so wrong. Even the private polling that hedge funds and investment were

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doing was still not accurate because we saw that great surge yesterday on

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the money market which tumbled overnight and then came back.

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Clearly, they were banking on Remain, just by a whisker. There

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will be questions about the polling but I still think many people went

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to the polling booth and actually had not made up their mind until

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they got there and any conversation any of us have had, and it is

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fantastic that it has energised people talking about politics on

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something about such huge importance for generations to come but there

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were people wobbling to the very end. The Daily Mail, take a bow

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Britain. It was a day the quiet people rose above an elite. It goes

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on to talk about the tumultuous defence of our time. Given that this

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has divided people so deeply, now is the time to try to bring everybody

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together but how do we do that? Precisely. As Peter Hensley said

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Hurley today, the constitutional historian, it is about resetting the

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dials and there is a great chance here, actually, for the reshaping of

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British politics. It is absolutely ridiculous that the male talks about

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the quiet people of Britain rising up against an arrogant elite class

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and mangoes on page after page praising Michael Gove and Boris

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Johnson who are part of that political class. It is clear, after

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nonsense but what I think is needed is a lot less of these jingoistic

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celebration and a lot of sensible calm and what happens next, it is

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about negotiations. What is the plan? It is true that Michael Gove

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and Boris Johnson are members of the political class but it is also true

:06:02.:06:05.

that they managed to harness a popular revolt against the

:06:06.:06:11.

establishment and one of the reason Remain did not do better is because

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David Cameron made no attempt to try and dress up the Remain campaign as

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anything other than the establishment defending the status

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quo. He made a mistake by lining up the IMF, the Treasury, the president

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of the US but make it enabled Boris and Michael to whip up popular

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resentment and it is not just a phenomenon confined to Britain, use

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it across America and Europe as well. How much of the winners been

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able to celebrate given the fact that immediately Nigel Farage was

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asked when does the NHS get the money, when does immigration get

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code and the answer is our, not yet or maybe not ever. Nigel Farage was

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not part of the official campaign. He is not an MP. We are not about to

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find ourselves in Nigel Farage's Britain... But a lot of people will

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actually say that Nigel Farage has dominated. He is the person that has

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energised and that if it was not for him we would never have had a

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referendum. Scotland went through this with a close vote with the

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independence referendum, arguably Scotland was very divided. How

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deeply have those divisions remained over the last few months? There are

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two rising cases. People will tell you it was very divisive and nasty

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those on the losing side would tell you it was a festival of democracy

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and uplifting. The truth is somewhere in between. Both accounts

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are caricatures. In a polarised referendum, which is essentially

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about existential question of who you are, your identity and the

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future of the country. Of course, it is game to be divisive. There was no

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room for nuance or middle way. My overwhelming sense was deja vu. The

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legitimisation of experts and the media and fax was all horribly

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familiar but they were good signs as well. The turnout was high. Not as I

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as it was a few years ago in Scotland but previously it was a

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much more salient issue but anything that engages the proportion of the

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election... The other thing that came out of the Scottish referendum

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is this rejuvenation with new leaders. We saw the demise of Murphy

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but look at Davidson coming out as a new superstar. It is quite striking

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that the two most impressive operators in the British Isles are

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Davidson and the First Minister Nicola Sturgeon. Cast your mind back

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to 1999 when the experiment was first embarked upon. It was said

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that Scottish politicians will no longer have a place in the UK stage

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that turned out to be far from the truth or stop although it looks very

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different now, we have a very high profile figure. The Daily Express

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and The Sun, we are out of the EU. The Express comes to us pretty early

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on. Boris as next piano. We do not know. And we can gloss over the

:10:18.:10:30.

David Cameron story. Why should he hang around? Given that he does not

:10:31.:10:36.

believe in Britain's withdrawal from the EU and given that there is going

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to be a lot of hard work to be done to work out what the new settlement

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is, what the new relationship is with the EU, it is understandable he

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did not want to do that. But he is the one who is responsible for

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bringing the referendum in the first place. He did not need to. He could

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have said, I hear to govern. He may not have won the election if he had

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not agreed to hold the referendum. What of the ways the story is

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reported is slightly jumping the gun. The headline, we are out of the

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EU. Everywhere it has been reported as a foregone conclusion. That has

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been the will of British people but it is much will likely I think that

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the leaders of the European Union will now come back and make a

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different offer, some form of associate membership which is

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probably what David Cameron should have gone for. Surely, if that is

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the case, people who voted to get out, will say that is not what we

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voted for. As of yet, Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty has not been

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evoked. It is not have to be triggered for ages and ages. We are

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ready had various European leaders are saying, you decided to go so go

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and you can understand that they want to do it and you can also

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understand the thinking behind the opinion in other European countries,

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as we have seen by the congratulations by Le Pen and other

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right wing parties to sway other right wig nations to do the same. Of

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course they want negotiations quite quickly because there are also

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elections coming up in Spain, Holland and France next year but

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this is about who is going to negotiate. Clearly, David Cameron

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who has a ready said long before this, that he would step down before

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the end of this Parliament cannot be in a position to negotiate and it is

:12:53.:12:58.

a two-year minimum deal if we use Article 50. There is an article in

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the FT which talks about whether Scotland or even Northern Ireland

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could do what Denmark has done an it stayed in their EU but parts of his

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kingdom, Greenland, decided to leave. The Fera Islands as well.

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That is in a similar situation. The point to make is the European Union

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is a highly flexible political organisation and even if we set

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out... And the truth is, I am old enough to remember German

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reunification, it was dealt with in a matter of months. A newly expanded

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Germany. I think they called it internal enlargement. I think, the

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First Minister spoke about this this morning, she is going to engage

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directly with Russell and she will seek what the mood is there and how

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willing they are to be flexible in their approach to the bits of the

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UK, and it might even include London...

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The Mirror says, what happens now? Day one of Brexit Britain. The pound

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fell sharply, but then there was a rally and be saw a huge amount wiped

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off shares and the losses were catastrophic, we were told. Some

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people who voted for Leave were surprised that this had happened,

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then they said, if I had known that this was going to happen and my vote

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would actually count it would have voted to Remain. How many have some

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people being? I think taking back your democratic rights does take

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courage because there are always risks involved. Sometimes, the

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following day, when you become more aware of what those risks are, you

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get a bit of buyers' remorse. The FTSE 100 did finish 2% up on the

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week. But what is the plan? I heard Brexit campaigners saying that what

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we need to do is gather round are some experts, business leaders and

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lawyers. But a lot of people were saying, the reason I voted to leave

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is because I am sick of hearing from experts. The plan, as Boris set out

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in his original column in the Daily Telegraph in which he declared that

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he would be campaigning for Leave, was to try and get the British

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public to reject the EU in the hope that the EU would then come back

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with an offer not just for us but for everyone. I think the reason why

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that would fly is because the result was so close and you can't have an

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outcome which just favours one side. It has got to be a compromise. It

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was so close. I don't think that Nicola Sturgeon is going to trigger

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a second referendum before she knows what the final agreement between

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Britain and the EU would need. Wouldn't that be sensible? Of

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course, what it is high stakes. It would be high stakes. Extremely high

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stakes. And it would be sensible, to go back to your analogy, there

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should be a cooling off period. It is frightening. Did you want to take

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out the extra warranty? Not at that price! In actual fact there will be

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people who don't realise what they voted for, which doesn't mean they

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are stupid or ignorant, it just means in the noise over the past few

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weeks of people shouting and it has been a very badtempered claim, it's

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a -- campaign, it is amazing so many people turned out to vote. But they

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do often count on people not turning up. Now there needs to be a bit of

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time and reflection with precisely that, but does Europe want us to

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stay that badly? Do they want Jeremy Corbyn or Boris Johnson as a Prime

:17:39.:17:43.

Minister? Unless they come up with a 2-tiered system EU is destined to

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collapse as there is no appetite among the public of so many European

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countries to be part of a united Europe. Page six and seven of the

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Mail. It talks about who the runners and riders are, the people who may

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or may not want to throw the hat in the ring. How is this looked upon?

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We know the Conservatives in Westminster elections don't do well.

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Who is the money on up there? Because Jeremy Corbyn isn't

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necessarily looking particularly safe, easy? This again highlights

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the growing distance between Scotland and England. Ruth Davidson

:18:30.:18:36.

a few days ago was having a very effective pop at Boris Johnson at

:18:37.:18:42.

Wembley Stadium, so I think that is one to watch. Does she declare

:18:43.:18:47.

independence effectively from the UK Conservative party, if Boris

:18:48.:18:52.

Johnson, who she clearly doesn't like, becomes leader? And Scottish

:18:53.:18:57.

Labour has already been making noises about becoming even more

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autonomous from the UK party. But it simply doesn't matter who becomes

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the next leader of the Conservative party or the Labour Party. The

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direction of travel in Scotland seems absolutely clear and that's

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not, as some viewers would know, a partisan point on my part, it is

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just how it feels. The Daily Record says many are backing a second

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referendum. Which we will come to! But it just doesn't matter who the

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next leader is. Does it matter? It might matter for the Scots if it was

:19:41.:19:44.

Michael Gove, because he is a Scot. That's complicated the! It is not

:19:45.:19:51.

fantasy that he is a Scot. It's a fantasy that it makes any idea --

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any difference. The fact that Boris Johnson has been identified as the

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bookies' favourite, at one point you could have been 9:1 against Leave

:20:06.:20:13.

winning last night. But the Conservative party, and we talk

:20:14.:20:16.

about divisions, the Conservative party again was with the part by

:20:17.:20:22.

Europe. Exactly. Let's rewind to three or four minutes ago when we

:20:23.:20:24.

were talking about the sensible option of having a second referendum

:20:25.:20:29.

on the sensible associated membership. You are then going to

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have the same anguish in the Conservative party about whether you

:20:34.:20:37.

would vote for that. I think actually whoever leaves the

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Conservative Party or whoever leads the country needs to heal this

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hideous rift. -- leads the Conservative Party. As promised a

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want to talk quickly about the disunited kingdom. The Scottish

:20:51.:20:59.

version of The Daily Mail. I mean, what is it necessary for us to do

:21:00.:21:03.

this today? We know that we should be thinking about it, was she under

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a lot of pressure to start talking about the second referendum? Yes,

:21:07.:21:10.

there is certainly pressure within the party. Some in the party are

:21:11.:21:15.

very impatient for a second referendum. Alex Salmond is one of

:21:16.:21:20.

them. Nicola Sturgeon is seen as a more cautious figure, but this

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morning she went much further than certainly I expected and many other

:21:25.:21:28.

observers, although there were a lot of caveats. It isn't going to happen

:21:29.:21:33.

soon. I think what she will do is take that timeframe, the formal

:21:34.:21:41.

notification withdrawal wouldn't be made for some time. There's at least

:21:42.:21:46.

two years after that to play with. I think what the Nicola Sturgeon plan

:21:47.:21:49.

is, this is just conjecture and I often get these things wrong, is

:21:50.:21:55.

that she will aim for another independence referendum shortly

:21:56.:21:59.

before the formal point of withdrawal with the UK and the

:22:00.:22:06.

timing will be such that it allows Scotland, if independence is

:22:07.:22:10.

sanctioned in-out referendum, to remain a continuing member of the

:22:11.:22:14.

European Union. I have to emphasise the idea that any of that is

:22:15.:22:18.

straightforward or easy is not the case and indeed the First Minister

:22:19.:22:22.

made that point this morning. I think she will find it quite

:22:23.:22:26.

difficult to do that. For one reason, the Prime Minister announced

:22:27.:22:29.

today that she would be involved in the negotiation process. That makes

:22:30.:22:35.

it easier. She has a direct involvement in the process. But it

:22:36.:22:40.

makes it harder if she sanctions the final settlement, he then urged the

:22:41.:22:44.

Scottish people to reject it. Another reason she will find it

:22:45.:22:47.

difficult to call a second referendum is if the voice was

:22:48.:22:51.

between the United Kingdom which has a new and better relationship with

:22:52.:22:55.

the EU, or at the Scotland becoming independent and joining the EU, it

:22:56.:22:59.

would be like a choice between being part of a democratic union and being

:23:00.:23:04.

part of an undemocratic union. A democratic union with a hereditary

:23:05.:23:10.

head of state. Let us quickly... Does a couple of minutes. This

:23:11.:23:15.

French newspaper, good luck, it says, with a picture of Boris

:23:16.:23:21.

hanging from a zip wire. It says... Stunned? Paralysed, actually. Many

:23:22.:23:30.

questions. Yes. The countries in the EU after victory, led by Boris

:23:31.:23:38.

Johnson. You could argue whether this is tongue in cheek. Woodlark, a

:23:39.:23:46.

man on a zip wire? -- good luck. Better Boris Johnson that Marine Le

:23:47.:23:57.

Pen. Yes. They are cheering this. One comment from each of you.

:23:58.:24:00.

Somebody reading the news. Good evening. Aliens didn't land on Earth

:24:01.:24:06.

and Elvis wasn't found alive. But everything else happened. It has

:24:07.:24:12.

been monumentally surprising for some people, hasn't it? Yes. To

:24:13.:24:19.

clinch it all, Donald Trump was in Scotland today, he arrived this

:24:20.:24:23.

morning, seemingly unaware of the fact that different parts of the UK

:24:24.:24:26.

voted differently. We didn't have aliens or Elvis, but we had Donald

:24:27.:24:31.

Trump. I think it has been astonishing. It is nothing like a

:24:32.:24:36.

general election that any of us have covered. As Dale --a staggering day.

:24:37.:24:44.

One of the peculiarities to add to the Donald Trump thing is the sequel

:24:45.:24:52.

to Independence Day came out tomorrow.

:24:53.:24:53.

Thank you, Toby Young, Jo Philips and David Torrance.

:24:54.:24:58.

I know you are all rather tired. We appreciate you being here.

:24:59.:25:01.

We should all see a bit of sunshine at times this coming weekend. Still

:25:02.:25:21.

some rain in the mix. We had that mixed during Friday as well. Some

:25:22.:25:27.

areas, just say whether Cumulus

:25:28.:25:28.

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