25/06/2016 The Papers


25/06/2016

No need to wait until tomorrow morning to see what's in the papers - BBC News presents a lively and informed conversation about the next day's headlines.


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Transcript


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The Papers with Martine Croxall and her guests.

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Hello and welcome to our look ahead to what the papers will be

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bringing us tomorrow.

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With me here in the studio is Toby Young, Associate Editor

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for The Spectator, and political commentator, Jo Philips.

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And joining us from Edinburgh is David Torrance

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columnist for The Herald.

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Tomorrow's front pages, starting with

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The Daily Mail front page celebrates the Leave vote -

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their picture has jubilant crowds and the headline "Take a bow

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Britain."

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The Express has more on the resignation of David Cameron

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and names Boris Johnson as the favourite to take over

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as prime minister.

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The Times describes today's events as a "Brexit Earthquake."

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It also features a picture of David Cameron and his wife

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outside 10 Downing Street.

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The Telegraph describes yesterday's vote as the "Birth

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of a New Britain."

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It says Boris Johnson and Michael Gove are preparing a bid

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to take control of the Conservative party.

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The Guardian simply says: "Over and Out" as it wraps up key events

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from today's decision to leave the EU.

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The Daily Mirror has a picture of an anguished looking

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Samantha Cameron as she watches her husband resign -

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asking "So what the hell happens now?"

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The Sun focusses on the career of David Cameron and why he has

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decided to quit.

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And the Scottish Daily Mail has the headline: "Disunited Kingdom."

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It says the result of today's referendum has torn Britain apart.

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Last night, about 10:00 o'clock, Nigel Farage called it for Remain,

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then changed his mind, when we you convinced?

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Well, I suppose the first indication that the exit poll and the poll that

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Ipsos MORI had done on the day - both of which indicated that Remain

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win quite comfortably - the first indication

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that they were wrong was the result from Sunderland.

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I mean, first the result from Newcastle in which Remain won

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but not by the margin it was expected to and then

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the result from Sunderland in which Leave won by a far greater

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margin than it needed to if Leave were to win overall.

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Let's look t The Times, one of our first front pages,

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"Brexit Earthquake" - there's a picture of the Camerons

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outside Number 10.

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The Prime Minister announces his resignation.

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Vote to leave threatens break-up of the UK.

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David, I want to come to the idea of a second independence referendum

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a little bit later if we can, but the fact is, the UK is massively

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divided and Scotland already looks like another country?

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Yes, this is part of an ongoing process.

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I have covered all these elections and referendums for the past few

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years - it's all catching up with me tonight,

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I can tell you.

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CHUCKLES.

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It doesn't feel like another country in many ways and you cannot argue

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with the differential vote like that.

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The fact remains that Scotland voted overwhelmingly for Remain

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although not to gloss over 38% of Scots who did back Leave -

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not an insignificant minority.

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Northern Ireland backed Remain and yet south, the other two

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quarters of the country, voted decisively for Leave.

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I say decisively but it was quite narrow.

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And that just changes the context completely.

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It changes the frame of reference for all these debates we've had over

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the past few years about Scottish independence, about the future

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of the UK.

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It also makes you question opinion opinion polls again and again?

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Yes, I remember talking not so many days ago, weeks ago,

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about the pressure on the pollsters because they got it so wrong.

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Even the private polling that hedge funds and investment banks

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were doing were still not accurate because we saw that great surge

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yesterday on the money market that then tumbled overnight

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and then came back.

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Clearly, they were banking on Remain, just by a whisker.

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There will be a lot of questions about the polling but I still think

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many, many people went to the polling booth yesterday

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and actually had not made up their mind until they got in there.

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I mean, every conversation that any of us have had -

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and it is fantastic that it has energised people talking

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about politics on something about such huge importance

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for generations to come - but there were still a lot of people

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wobbling on the brink.

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The Daily Mail, says it has published a historic edition,

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"Take a bow Britain."

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It was the day the quiet people of Britain rose up

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against an arrogant, out-of-touch political class

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and a contemptuous Brussels elite.

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It goes on to talk about the tumultuous events of our time.

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Tim Farron, the Democrats leader, talking today about the fact that

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given that this has divided people so deeply, now is the time

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to try to bring everybody together but how do we do that?

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Precisely.

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As Peter Hennessy said earlier today - the constitutional historian -

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this is about resetting the dials and there is a great chance here,

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actually, for the reshaping of British politics.

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It is absolutely ridiculous, with no sense of irony,

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that The Mail talks about the quiet people of Britain rising up

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against an arrogant out-of-touch political class and then goes

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on page after page praising Michael Gove and Boris Johnson

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who are part of the political class.

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It is clear, utter nonsense but what I think is needed is a lot

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less of these jingoistic celebration and a lot of sensible calm

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what happens next, it is about negotiations.

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What is the plan?

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It is true that Michael Gove and Boris Johnson are members

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of the political class but it is also true

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that they managed to harness a popular revolt against

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the establishment and one of the reason Remain did not do

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better is because David Cameron made no attempt to try and dress up

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the Remain campaign as anything other than the establishment

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defending the status quo.

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He made a mistake by lining up the IMF, the Treasury,

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the president of the US and it enabled Boris and Michael to whip up

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popular resentment and it is not just a phenomenon confined

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to Britain, you see it across America and Europe as well.

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How much have the winners been able to celebrate given the fact

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immediately Nigel Farage was asked when does the NHS get the money,

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when does immigration get kerned and the answer is our,

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not yet or maybe not ever.

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Nigel Farage was not part of the official campaign.

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He is not an MP.

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We are not about to find ourselves in Nigel Farage's Britain...

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But a lot of people will actually say that Nigel Farage has dominated.

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He is the person that has energised and that if it was not for him

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we would never have had a referendum.

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Scotland went through this with a close vote with the independence

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referendum, arguably Scotland was very divided.

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How deeply have those divisions remained over the last few months?

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There are two polorised cases.

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People who lost will tell you it was very divisive and nasty

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on the winning side would tell you it was a festival

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of democracy and uplifting.

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The truth is somewhere in between.

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Both accounts are caricatures.

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In a polarised referendum, which is essentially

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about existential question of who you are, your identity

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and the future of the country.

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Of course, it is going to be divisive.

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There is no room for nuance or a middle way.

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My overwhelming sense was deja vu.

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Eve nthe lines were the same.

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The delegitimisation of experts and the media and facts

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was all horribly familiar but they were good signs as well.

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The turnout was high.

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Not as it was a few years ago in Scotland but previously

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it was a much more salient issue but anything that engages

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the proportion of the election...

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The other thing that came out of the Scottish referendum is this

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rejuvenation with new leaders.

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We saw the demise of Murphy but look at Davidson coming out

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as a new superstar.

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It is quite striking that the two most impressive operators

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in the British Isles are Davidson and the First Minister Nicola

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Sturgeon.

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Cast your mind back to 1999 when the devolusion experiment

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was first embarked upon.

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It was said that Scottish politicians will no longer

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have a place in the UK stage but turned out to be far

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from the truth

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Although it looks very different now, we have a very

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high profile figure.

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The Daily Express and The Sun, "We are out of the EU."

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The Express comes to us pretty early on.

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Boris as next PM.

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We do not know.

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And we can gloss over the David Cameron story.

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Why should he hang around?

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Given that he does not believe in Britain's withdrawal from the EU

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and given that there is going to be a lot of hard work to be done

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to work out what the new settlement is, what the new relationship

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is with the EU, it is understandable he did not want to do that.

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But he is the one who is responsible for bringing the referendum

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in the first place.

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He did not need to.

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He could have said, I'm here to govern.

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He may not have won the election if he had not agreed

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to hold the referendum.

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One of the ways the story is reported is slightly

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jumping the gun.

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The headline, we are out of the EU.

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Everywhere it has been reported as a foregone conclusion.

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That has been the will of British people but it is much more likely

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I think that the leaders of the European Union will now come

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back and make a different offer, some form of associate membership

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which is probably what David Cameron should have gone for.

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Surely, if that is the case, people who voted to get out,

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will say that is not what we voted for.

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As of yet, Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty has

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not been invoked.

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It does not have to be triggered for ages and ages.

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We are ready had various European leaders are saying,

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you decided to go so go and you can understand that they want to do it

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and you can also understand the thinking behind making it

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complicated for us.

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In other European countries, as we have seen by the congratulations

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by Le Pen and other right wing parties to sway other right wing

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nations to do the same.

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Of course they want negotiations quite quickly because there are also

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elections coming up in Spain, Holland and France next year

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but this is about who is going to negotiate.

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Clearly, David Cameron who has already said long before this,

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that he would step down before the end of this Parliament cannot be

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in a position to negotiate and it is a two-year minimum deal

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if we use Article 50.

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There is an article in the FT which talks about whether Scotland

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or even Northern Ireland could do what Denmark has done an it stayed

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stayed

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in their EU but parts of his kingdom, Greenland,

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decided to leave.

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The Fera Islands as well.

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That is in a similar situation.

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The point to make is the European Union is a highly

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flexible political organisation and even if we set out...

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And the truth is, I am old enough to remember German reunification,

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it was dealt with ii in a matter of months.

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A newly expanded Germany.

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I think they called it internal enlargement.

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I think, the First Minister spoke about this this morning,

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she is going to engage directly with Brussell and she will seek

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what the mood is there and how willing they are to be flexible

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in their approach to the bits of the UK, and it might even include

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London...

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The Mirror says, what happens now?

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Day one of Brexit Britain.

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Of course the pound fell sharply, but then there was a rally and be

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-- we saw a huge amount wiped off shares and the losses

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were catastrophic, we were told.

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Some people who voted for Leave were surprised that this had

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happene and then they said, if I had known that this

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was going to happen and my vote would actually count

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I would have voted to Remain.

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How naive have some people been?

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I think taking back your democratic rights does take courage

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because there are always risks involved.

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Sometimes, the following day, when you become more aware

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of what those risks are, you get a bit of buyers' remorse.

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But in time I think people won't regret their decision.

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The FTSE 100 did finish 2% up on the week.

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But what is the plan?

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I heard Brexit campaigners saying that what we need to do is gather

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round us some experts, business leaders and lawyers.

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But a lot of people were saying, the reason I voted to leave

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is because I am sick of hearing from experts.

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Well, the plan, as Boris set out in his original column

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in the Daily Telegraph, in which he declared

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that he would be campaigning for Leave, was to try and get

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the British public to reject the EU in the hope that the EU would then

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come back with an offer not just for us but for everyone.

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I think the reason why that would fly is because the result

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was so close and you can't have an outcome which just

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favours one side.

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It has got to be a compromise.

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Because it was so close?

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Yes, there would then be a second referundum on whether to embrace

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the new offer on the table.

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I don't think that Nicola Sturgeon is going to trigger a second

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referendum before she knows what the final agreement

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between Britain and the EU would be.

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Wouldn't that be sensible?

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Of course it would, but it is high stakes.

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It would be high stakes.

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Extremely high stakes.

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And it would be sensible, to go back to your analogy,

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there should be a buyer's cooling off period.

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It is frightening.

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Did you want to take out the extra warranty?

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Not at that price!

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No, alright.

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But in actual fact there will be people who don't realise

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what they voted for, which doesn't mean

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they are stupid or ignorant,

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it just means in the noise over the last few weeks of people

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shouting and counter claims and what has been a very badtempered

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campaign, it's amazing so many people turned out to vote.

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But they do often count on people not turning

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out, don't they?

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Now there needs to be a bit of time and reflection with precisely that,

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but does Europe want us to stay that badly?

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Do they want Jeremy Corbyn or Boris Johnson

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as Prime Minister?

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I think unless they come up with a 2-tiered system EU

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is destined to collapse as there is no appetite among

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the public of so many European countries to be part

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of a united Europe.

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Let's look at pages six and seven of the Mail.

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Will Boris Grab the Crown?

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It talks about who the runners and riders are, the people who may

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or may not want to throw their hat in the ring.

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David, how is this looked upon?

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We know the Conservatives in Westminster elections

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don't do well.

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Who is the money on up there for becoming the Labour leader?

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Because Jeremy Corbyn isn't necessarily looking

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particularly safe, is he?

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Well, yeah, but this again highlights the growing distance

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between Scotland and England.

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Ruth Davidson a few days ago was having a very effective pop

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at Boris Johnson at Wembley Stadium, so I think that is one to watch.

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Does she declare independence effectively from the UK Conservative

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Party, if Boris Johnson, who she clearly doesn't

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like, becomes leader?

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And also from Labour's perspective, Scottish Labour has already been

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making noises about becoming even more autonomous from the UK party.

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But from up here, it simply doesn't matter who becomes the next leader

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of the Conservative party, or the Labour Party.

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The direction of travel in Scotland seems absolutely clear and that's

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not, as some viewers would know, a partisan point on my part,

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it is just how it feels.

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The Daily Record, which we don't have here, a Labour supporting paper

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for decades, is backing a second referendum.

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Which we will come to!

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But it just doesn't matter who the next leader is.

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Does it matter, Toby?

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It might matter for the Scots if it was Michael Gove,

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because he is a Scot.

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Fantasy.

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Sorry.

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It is not fantasy that he is a Scot.

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No, it's a fantasy that it makes any difference.

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Interesting that Boris Johnson has been identified as the bookies'

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favourite.

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At one point you could have been 9:1 against Leave winning last night,

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shortly before the Newcastle declaration.

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But the Conservative party, and we talk about divisions,

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the Conservative party again ripped apart by Europe.

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Exactly.

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Let's rewind to three or four minutes ago when we were talking

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about the sensible option of having a second referendum

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on the sensible associated membership.

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You are then going to have the same anguish in the Conservative party

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about whether you would vote for that.

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I think actually whoever leaves the Conservative Party or whoever

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leads the Conservative Party to heal this hideous rift.

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-- leads.

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As promised, a want to talk quickly about the Disunited Kingdom.

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The Scottish version of The Daily Mail.

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Cameron quits.

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Second referendum battle.

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I mean, what is it necessary for us to do this today?

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We know that she would be thinking about it,

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was she under a lot of pressure to start talking

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about the second referendum?

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Yes, there is certainly pressure within the party.

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Some in the party are very impatient for a second referendum.

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Alex Salmond is clearly one of them.

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Sturgeon is seen as a more cautious figure, but this morning

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she went much further than certainly I expected and many other

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observers, although there were a lot of caveats.

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And it isn't going to happen soon.

0:21:280:21:31

I think what she will do is take that timeframe, the formal

0:21:310:21:40

notification of withdrawal wouldn't be made for some time.

0:21:400:21:42

There's at least two years after that to play with.

0:21:420:21:47

I think what the Sturgeon plan is, and this is just conjecture

0:21:470:21:50

and I often get these things wrong, is that she will aim for another

0:21:500:21:53

independence referendum shortly before the formal point

0:21:530:21:58

of withdrawal with the UK and the timing will be such

0:21:580:22:09

that it allows Scotland, if independence is sanctioned

0:22:090:22:11

in that referendum, to remain a continuing

0:22:110:22:12

member of the European Union.

0:22:120:22:14

I have to emphasise the idea that any of that is straightforward

0:22:140:22:17

or easy is not the case and indeed the First Minister made

0:22:170:22:20

that point this morning.

0:22:200:22:21

I think she will find it quite difficult to do that.

0:22:210:22:24

For one reason, the Prime Minister announced today that she would be

0:22:240:22:27

involved in the negotiation process.

0:22:270:22:28

That makes it easier.

0:22:280:22:30

She has a direct involvement in the process.

0:22:300:22:37

But it makes it harder if she sanctions the final

0:22:370:22:40

settlement, to then urge the Scottish people to reject it.

0:22:400:22:43

Another reason she will find it difficult to call a second

0:22:430:22:52

inde ref is if the choice was between the United Kingdom

0:22:520:22:55

which has a new and better relationship with the EU,

0:22:550:22:59

or Scotland becoming independent and joining the EU,

0:22:590:23:01

it would be like a choice between being part of a democratic

0:23:010:23:04

union and being part of an undemocratic union.

0:23:040:23:06

A democratic union with a hereditary head of state.

0:23:060:23:09

Let us quickly... Just a couple of minutes.

0:23:090:23:14

This French newspaper, Good Luck, it says, with a picture of Boris

0:23:140:23:17

hanging from a zip wire.

0:23:170:23:19

It says...

0:23:190:23:20

I can tell you.

0:23:200:23:21

Stunned?

0:23:210:23:22

Paralysed, actually.

0:23:220:23:24

And many questions.

0:23:240:23:27

Yes many questions in the EU,

0:23:270:23:32

in the countries in the EU after victory, led by Boris Johnson.

0:23:320:23:36

I mean, you could argue whether this is tongue in cheek.

0:23:360:23:44

Good luck, a man on a zip wire, looking like a complete...

0:23:440:23:51

Better Boris Johnson that Marine Le Pen,

0:23:510:23:53

who is the frontrunner to win the election.

0:23:530:23:55

Yes. They are cheering this.

0:23:550:23:56

One comment from each of you.

0:23:560:23:58

Somebody reading the news.

0:23:580:23:59

Good evening.

0:23:590:24:00

Aliens didn't land on Earth and Elvis wasn't found alive.

0:24:000:24:03

But everything else happened.

0:24:030:24:10

It has been monumentally surprising for so many

0:24:100:24:12

people, hasn't it?

0:24:120:24:15

Yeah and to clinch it all, Donald Trump

0:24:150:24:16

was in Scotland today, he arrived this morning,

0:24:160:24:18

seemingly unaware of the fact that different parts

0:24:180:24:21

of the UK voted differently.

0:24:210:24:22

We didn't have aliens or Elvis, but we had Donald Trump.

0:24:220:24:29

I think it has been astonishing.

0:24:290:24:32

I mean, it is nothing like a general election that

0:24:320:24:40

all of us have covered. A staggering day.

0:24:400:24:43

One of the peculiarities to add to the Trump thing

0:24:430:24:48

is the sequel to Independence Day came out.

0:24:480:24:50

That's it for The Papers.

0:24:500:24:51

Thank you, Toby Young, Jo Philips and David Torrance.

0:24:510:24:53

I know you are all rather tired.

0:24:530:24:55

We appreciate you being here.

0:24:550:24:58

Coming up next, it's the weather.

0:24:580:25:01

Hello.

0:25:130:25:19

It's a slightly fresher feel to the weather this weekend,

0:25:190:25:22

as the high humidity moves away,

0:25:220:25:24

which fuelled the thunderstorms over recent few days.

0:25:240:25:26

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