25/06/2016 The Papers


25/06/2016

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Welcome to our look at head to the poll that -- look ahead to the

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papers tomorrow. It feels like we should be having a dinner party

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there are so many others here. We don't have long, but we'll be back

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again at 11:30pm. Let's start with the mail on Sunday. Five rivals to

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fight Boris for number ten. Only five? Only five! If you read the

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Sunday Times tomorrow there are six, maybe seven. We are inundated with

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people who want to lead the nation. I suppose we should be flattered.

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Theresa May, Jeremy Hunt, fresh from his doctors strike, Nicky Morgan.

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I'm told George Freeman will toss his hat into the ring, too. What a

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smorgasbord of fun we are awaiting. Everyone quickly googles. We can't

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find some of the key players. Nobody has seen George Osborne, but Boris

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Johnson has been out in his whites. At one point we thought George

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Osborne was a shoo-in to be next Prime Minister, but after a few

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hiccups with the Budget and now the referendum campaign where he made

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some harsh warnings that upset a lot of people in its party, and

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so-called project fear, he seems to have disappeared and nobody can find

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him. There is some suggestion that his leadership hopes aren't totally

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dead and he might be ringing round MPs to see if he has a chance of

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getting onto the ballot paper. The new dictionary definition of

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optimistic. Douglas, we haven't had you here and we are very glad for

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you to give the Irish perspective. How is this being viewed in Dublin?

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Very gloomily. It was a shock. The Irish covenant had been openly

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campaigning for a Remain vote and people are worried. People are

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worried about the economic hit, which is automatic. And then worries

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about the future of the border and the future of the relationship

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between Ireland and Britain. As far as the economy is concerned, that

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didn't seem to be necessarily quite what everybody was worried about. We

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know immigration was important. How much of an issue is immigration from

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the EU for Ireland? It's not an issue at all. Ireland, like Britain

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and Sweden in 2004, also agreed to allow all the new member states, as

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many as wished, straightaway. A huge number did come to Ireland. About

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17% in Ireland today were born outside the country, but there has

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not really been any major social problem and there is no

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anti-immigration party in Ireland. Let's look at the Sunday Telegraph.

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2 million is a lot, but nothing in comparison with the 17 million who

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said they wanted us to leave the EU. It's a fairly short space of time to

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garner 2 million signatures. Most of the biggest Ibra editions have been

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a million at most so it's a fairly big number. As you say, it won't

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change anything. The time it starts getting interesting is if you start

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hitting 17 million. Many people would still say the referendum

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stands. It's not going to make a difference. This is it. We still

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keep talking about the status of this result. It's not binding, its

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advisory. It would be a brave government that overturned it. If

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you mean brave -- by brave, suicidal, yes. It just won't happen.

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Signing up 3000 people a minute, good for them. If it did get 18

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million, that would be interesting. Some of the context of what happens

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next in terms of the deal and what we are expecting from the

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negotiation may be framed by the public reaction to what's going on

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with the economic problems and what appears to be a serious case of

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buyers remorse setting in with some people over the way they voted, but

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in practice, this is the biggest democratic enterprise in this

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country since 1992. It's pretty hard to see any credible political party

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trying to overturn it and survive as a government. It's very interesting.

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We are in uncharted territory with Article 50. When referendums have

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not gone the way that people have wanted in Ireland, they have just

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held them again. That's happened twice. It happened to the Danes over

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Maastricht. What happens is the mood changes. You do have buyers remorse.

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A lot of people who didn't go out to vote the first time to go out the

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second time and you sometimes come back with some kind of

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renegotiation. With this one, nobody knows exactly what the referendum

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means. They know people voted to leave the EU, but they don't know in

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what way, what kind of relationship they will be in the future. That's

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the area where it could become very, very interesting. Even if Britain

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doesn't decide to overturn the referendum outcome, it could end up

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being a different situation to the one a lot of people who voted Leave

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expected. There are a lot of reasons people like giving us for them

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wanting to leave. It might be to do with sovereignty, not feeling we

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have to listen to this remote place called Brussels any longer, and we

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get better democracy back. That's what a lot of people say. In

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constitutional terms, there are all sorts of ways it could work out. We

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were talking to Toby Young last night and he was saying we could

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have associate membership, which has been talked about. A lot of people

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think what we would always end up with was a associate membership. The

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referendum has decided we'll have that outside the EU rather than in

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it. The negotiations we are about to have in some ways will be like what

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we might have ended up with if we'd stayed in and things had gradually

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changed over a couple of years. There's a lot of evidence other EU

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countries might start to think about freedom of movement as well. It's

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also what we are able to negotiate with the other 27 members. That's

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right. It's difficult because we've had this shock result and everybody

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is bracing themselves and thinking what does it mean and where do we go

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next? We will get some clarity on the planned on Monday when I guessed

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David Cameron will give a statement to Parliament about what happens

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next. There is a suggestion about do we invoke Article 50 or through an

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act of Parliament. At the same time we're having pressure put on us by

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the other European leaders to get on with it and the question remains

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about what the wiggle room will be. And who cares what David Cameron

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thinks? If Boris Johnson Michael Gove disagree with David Cameron,

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who is now in charge? What happens when Boris Johnson and Michael Gove

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disagree with each other? That's what we'll see in the coming months.

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We must look at the Observer and think about what's happening with

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Labour. Hilary Benn seeks to depose Corbyn. Jeremy Corbyn has said he

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would stand again. That's the problem Labour faces. Unless Jeremy

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Corbyn walks away, it's difficult to get rid of him because ultimately

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the party rules state that if there is a vote of no confidence, he can

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go back on the ballot paper and he will just do that and win again. He

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said that emphatically this morning. Who wants to stand against him? We

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might have a general election in the next year and if you're the Labour

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Party candidate, you'll probably get massacred. If you want to lead

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Labour, you're probably better off waiting for Corbyn to lose the

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general election and come in afterwards. Any shuddering in the

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Taoiseach? They are shuddering. He's been shuddering more less all year

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because your most lost the last election and is just about hanging

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on. It hasn't been straightforward. With all of this stuff, a lot of the

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Europeans would like this thing to move very, very quickly. The French

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Foreign Minister said he wanted David Cameron out within days and

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doesn't see what everybody is hanging about four. I think there

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will be pressure to move things as quickly as possible. That's it for

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the moment. We'll be back for another look at the papers at

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11:30pm for now, thank you all very much indeed. It's time for the

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weather. Hello. It was a very lively start

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the weekend for many parts of the UK. The radar sequence

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