04/06/2014 Y Sgwrs

Should Scotland be an independent country

and should voters have the right to get rid of their MPs?

Some of the things discussed on Y Sgwrs.

Good evening. Joining us this evening is the former Plaid Cymru leader

Dafydd Wigley, Manon George, a lecturer on law at Cardiff University

who is also a member of the Wales Governance Centre,

and the Tory MP, Glyn Davies, is in our Westminster studio.

A warm welcome to you three.

The British government's has set out its agenda

until the next general election.

One recommendation is to give the public the right

to sack their MP if they're guilty of serious misconduct.

There isn't much love felt towards politicians

so is that welcomed?

If you look at politicians in general...

..there is room for improvement.

Maybe this is the right step but how will you police it?

I'm not sure.

That and the content of the Queen's Speech to come

but to start with, the referendum campaign in Scotland

has officially started.

Over the next 15 weeks there will be debates for and against

independence for the country.

Our reporters, James Williams and Daniel Davies are in the thick of it.

Glasgow - the home of Celtic and Rangers

some of football's biggest enemies.

But Scotland's largest city is also the focal point

of a political battle.

I'm going to be listening to the arguments against independence.

While I'll be listening to the arguments in favour.

Welsh voices who now live in Scotland

are on both sides of the argument.

The biggest argument from the Yes campaign

is that Scotland would be a fairer country.

It seems that the wealth gap

in the UK now, the gap is so big,

only three other countries in the world have a bigger gap.

I hope in a way, if we get our way up here

Alex Salmond will be able to do something about this gap.

For John and the Yes campaign, the feeling is

this is a golden opportunity to create

a fairer and wealthier country.

They say it will be the 14th richest country in the world

by using the country's natural resources in a sensible manner

that will benefit Scottish people.

The Yes campaign is emphasising a positive message,

a message, they say, which is different to the negative message

of the unionists.

Hang on, the No campaign says coming together is the positive thing to do

rather than pointing out the differences between UK countries.

Isn't it better to share our resources and talents

in order to ensure a prosperous future for everyone in the UK?

That's the message they're trying to sell in this building.

It's the No campaign HQ.

It's a message which strikes a chord with people like Ann.

Alex Salmond has given the people of this country an idea

that it's a land of milk and honey and everything will be great.

But last week, things started to change.

The first thing was, he'd said,

when it came to oil production,

we would get 33 billion in the first four years.

Then it went down to 28 and now it's down to 12.

That, in four years...

It's a huge difference, less than half.

Well, the opinion polls show that the majority of people

agree with Ann and the No campaign has been in the lead from the start.

Yes but the opinion polls also show

that lately, things are getting closer.

A number of people haven't decided how to vote yet.

That's true.

With so many people finding it hard to make a decision

the result hangs in the balance.

There's three and a half months ago until the big day.

Dafydd Wigley, when an election gets nearer

history books do show that opinion polls show a close result.

James was saying in that piece, in this case,

I was going to disagree saying they weren't getting closer. Why not?

They are getting closer.

They are then the opinion polls are commissioned by the SNP.

There are six opinion polls

and only one, Ipsos MORI, has remained the same.

But they haven't measured since February.

The others show a constant increase.

In the last one, for men, the score was 50-50.

It is getting closer. If momentum carries on this way

it's going to be tight and they could win.

Would you agree with that, Glyn Davies? Opinion polls are close

with more people who were undecided

now being pulled in by Alex Salmond's arguments?

Well, it's difficult to say what will exactly happen.

At the moment, according to the opinion polls

it seems people in Scotland will vote against independence.

But it is a matter for people in Scotland.

If they want independence, it will happen.

I'm ready to accept their opinion.

But at the moment I expect people in Scotland

to remain part of Great Britain.

Last week we heard Alex Salmond and Danny Alexander,

they both were fighting it out saying Scotland was going to be richer.

This has turned into being an economic battle,

how much more money people will have in their pockets.

Is it difficult for people, in the confusion of this debate,

if they're going to be £1,000 better off under independence,

£1,400 better off if they remain within the Union.

That's the problem.

A lot of unanswered questions remain.

I think the opinion polls are getting closer

and, like James said, many people are as yet undecided.

I think it depends on three things.

Firstly, sentiment. There will be some last minute decisions.

Will be people be confident enough to vote yes

or will they lose their nerve and vote no?

Secondly, I see that the political context,

the relationship between the government in London

and the government in Scotland will affect the result.

Finally, the strength of both campaigns.

That No campaign has to be careful

not to over-emphasise this idea of Britishness

and put emphasis on the advantages of being part of the UK,

economically too.

On the economy, the IFS, who are highly regarded, said

the monetary gap

and how much Scottish people will have to pay in tax

is bigger than originally thought.

The financial gap is £8 million for the first year of independence.

That doesn't lead anyone to think that Scotland

can stand on its own two feet.

It depends on the policies the Scottish government would follow

and how they would cut the expenditure going to London now

and things like nuclear weapons.

They need to diversify their finances.

If I was Scottish, I'd have no shadow of a doubt,

I'd vote yes.

I remember the first time I canvassed in the Rhondda in 1967,

old miners used to tell me, you're here too late,

you're 50 years too late. When we had the coal

we'd be fine, it's too late now.

Will the people of Scotland in 50 years' time say

they regretted they didn't vote yes when they still had oil?

You say that, but we're hearing from directors at RBS,

Scottish Power, BT, BAe Systems, saying it would be hard for Scotland

to join the EU. It would be a long way back in.

They wouldn't have the same the UK has.

Will all respect, I think that's rubbish.

Once the vote is over, if Scotland is to be an independent country

there's going to be 18 months of discussions with Europe

about Union membership.

I don't even see England preventing that from happening.

Maybe Spain will create problems

but they don't want to be seen as a country that prevents

smaller countries from having their wishes.

No, they'll be fine.

Glyn Davies, are you surprised we've heard very little

about identity.

Do people feel as if they're Scottish

or feel as if they belong to the United Kingdom?

This argument has been about the money in people's pockets

rather than a feeling of identity.

At the moment, people have been discussing the economy.

In the end, what I think will persuade people to vote

are their feelings, how they see themselves.

That's the point.

Do people see themselves as Scottish

or do they want to be part of Britain?

We don't know. Nobody knows.

At the moment I'd expect people in Scotland

want to be Scottish and part of Britain

just as I'm a Welshman and part of Britain.

I think it will be that feeling

that will persuade them to be part of Britain.

In last three months of this campaign, Manon,

how will both campaigns go about it?

We don't see David Cameron much in Scotland.

Is that a deliberate tactic on his campaign's behalf

because he isn't a figure, and the Conservative Party isn't a party

that's well loved in Scotland.

Exactly. The Conservative Party isn't strong in Scotland at all.

It is interesting to note that there hasn't been a head-to-head

between David Cameron and Alex Salmond.

But it was very interesting when we had David Cameron

giving the speech in the Olympic Park at the beginning of the year

trying to persuade people to remember the success of the Olympics

and to remember their Britishness.

That then fed the Yes campaign rather than the No campaign.

Let's now turn to today's events.

And the poor Queen, it was her 63rd speech,

and we're still counting!

She officially opened Parliament today.

At least she had a new coach taking her from Buckingham Palace

to Westminster Palace.

For the last time before the general election,

the government has set out the new bills that will be scrutinised

by MPs over the next year.

Janet Ebenezer has the details.

My government's legislative programme

will continue to deliver on its long-term plan

to build a stronger economy and a fairer society.

The Queen's Speech 2014.

With a general election around the corner

it's no surprise that the coalition government

was keen to please the electorate.

One of the main measures is to reform the pensions' system

that will mean many of us

can contribute to the same pot.

According to the government, that will lead to lower costs

leading to more income on your pension.

Other measures include a scheme to make it easier to drill for gas

and a measure to help with childcare costs.

But as you go through the list of measures, 11 in all,

one that will grab attention

is the Recall Bill.

It will give the voters, you and me, the right

to sack our local MP through a petition

if the House of Commons decided they are guilty of misconduct.

Up until now, the Westminster Parliament

has seen members resigning voluntarily,

such as Eric Illsley and Dennis McShane

for illegally claiming expenses.

The symbol of the scandal at the time was the duck house

owned by the Tory, Sir Peter Viggers.

He claimed more than £1,500 for a special house for his birds.

The scandals rocked Westminster to its foundations.

If the new plans were recommended

members of the public would have the right to get rid of their MPs.

But is it fair that our politicians are open targets

or is the idea totally quackers?

Sorry!

The recall bill already exists in the United States.

The law was used in California back in 2003

when the voters got rid of the Democrat governor,

Gray Davis, and voted in the star of Total Recall,

Arnold Schwarzenegger.

But forget about Arnie for now,

what do people think over in Wales?

I think it's a good idea.

Everybody's heard about the expenses and what's happened in London

with many down there.

I think it's a good idea to have a bit of power

because it's been mis-used.

Everybody makes mistakes once but if it happens more than once

I think the public has the right to say what they think.

One of the things is give people the right, you and me,

to give our Members of Parliament the sack

if they're guilty of misconduct.

You could do it through a petition. Do you agree with that?

Yes, but everything is done

correctly and with the scrutiny of law.

If we lose that it will just lead to chaos.

I think they're all answerable

especially in these current economic times.

When you look at politicians in general

there is room for improvement.

Maybe this is a step in the right direction

but how will you police it? I'm not sure.

It is true that MPs are answerable to the electorate

but usually you have to wait until an election before having a change.

Under the new recommendations things would be very different.

The politicians will know they'll be under the microscope at all times.

Let's start with that idea, Glyn Davies,

of voters having the right to sack their local MP.

There are more hoops to jump through than you'd get

in a packet of Hula Hoops.

You have to have a petition signed by 10% of the electorate,

and only if the MP is jailed for a year.

Your Tory colleague, Zac Goldsmith, said today it's pointless.

I know some people say that.

To be honest, I sympathise with people who think that.

But this is an important step in moving forward.

At the moment, the public have to wait until a general election

to give their Member of Parliament the sack.

That system has been changed now.

People will have the opportunity to sack MPs in-between elections.

I think this is important.

I support that.

I know that some people, and Zac Goldsmith is one of them,

want a stricter bill.

It's possible, if this doesn't work, we will have a stricter bill.

The Liberal Democrats said it's better to have an imperfect bill

rather than no bill at all.

Are we going to see this bill being changed

as it goes through Westminster?

An academic would say laws are similar to sausages.

You don't want to know how they're made.

Maybe this is one of those laws.

It appears that it will be tweaked.

Laws have to be clear, they have to be self-evident.

Looking at the ideas I got from the Queen's Speech today,

it isn't clear how a by-election would be called.

One more headline in this speech was the change to pensions.

From now on, people can withdraw the total of their pension.

Is that responsible legislation?

I think there's room for change in this.

It depends on the details.

So many of the problems are in the details,

just like the MPs recall bill.

On that, of course the public should have the right,

if anyone should get rid of their MP, it shouldn't be down

to the Speaker or the Commons, it should be the voters.

But what was very important in this speech today

which deserves attention is this fracking.

If people are given the right to go onto land without permission

and look into the possibility of fracking,

I think that's unacceptable and it should be fought against.

Glyn Davies?

I agree with Dafydd.

That's more controversial than anything else.

But what the government says is,

the only way to see if shale gas is available,

if shale gas can be found, the only way to do that

is to give people permission to find out.

The only way to do that is through what was mentioned today.

We have to remember it is deep underground.

Fracking's taking place

5,000 feet underground.

I don't think anybody...

Nobody worries about flying...

..but when you go underground, people are worried.

I'm going to support this. I don't know if shale gas can happen,

I don't know what its potential is yet.

But the only way we can find out

is to go through the proposals in the Queens's Speech.

We have to discuss a few other things.

The Westminster Government is going to adopt

a law that exists in Wales, the tax on plastic bags.

Is this a sign that good practice is being adopted

right across the governments?

It was nice to see that the Wales Bill was going to continue

to the next term with regards to tax raising powers.

But that England were following Wales. We had set an example.

It shows the Assembly maturing legislatively.

It's leading the way.

We have to move on, you're one of UKIP's harshest critics

or you were before the European elections.

Definitely!

But there was no mention of immigrants or immigration

in this speech. Did that surprise you considering UKIP's growth?

Yes, it does. If we had our own programme

-Plaid Cymru would bring something in on this.

-Such as?

Next Tuesday I will be presenting a private bill to the Lords.

Glyn Davies, why is there no mention of immigration?

Is David Cameron burying his head in the sand?

No. What was said today is what we're going to do

over the next ten months.

We're not going to be doing anything on that.

Some people want...

A lot of people vote UKIP

and it changes the way people think.

What's important to us is doing the best thing for Britain.

I don't want change the best way because UKIP has done well.

It's important to find out what's best.

That's what the coalition is going to do.

But we need to make sure that workers in Wales

are not under-priced.

Finally, we've already discussed MPs misbehaving and tomorrow

there will be a by-election in Newark, Nottinghamshire

after the Conservative MPs, Patrick Mercer, resigned

following allegations he took cash for questions.

Following UKIP's success in England's local elections

and in the European elections,

there's been talk of the threat by Nigel Farage's party

on the Conservative vote.

The party won more than predicted in the England elections

and came top of the European elections there.

In Wales, they were second behind Labour.

Glyn Davies, are you worried about this result in Newark?

I expect the Conservatives to win.

I've been calling people in Newark tonight before coming here.

It feels very positive there

and I expect to win the seat.

Can I tell you something that might make you feel uncomfortable.

In an area that included 75% of the electorate in the European elections

UKIP were top.

In Powys, it was the same thing.

UKIP topped the poll in Powys.

But I think if there was a general election in Powys

I don't think UKIP would win.

People say things but in the general election and tomorrow,

many more people will vote.

I think people who stayed at home last week,

I think they'll come out tomorrow and I think we'll see Robert Jenrick

will be the new Member of Parliament.

I think he will be a good MP.

The Conservatives have only won one by-election whilst in government.

Do you remember who it was?

William Hague in 1989.

Yes! I was about to say that.

He nearly lost the 19,000 majority.

Patrick Mercer's majority was 1,500.

Is it possible we'll see the first UKIP MP?

Of course there is.

Parties sometimes get a protest vote in by-elections.

But in this case, I think UKIP's a flash in the pan.

I think they're starting their way down.

When it comes to Britain's politics,

what would it mean to have a UKIP Member of Parliament

in Westminster? Would that open the floodgates?

Will people think they want to vote more?

Sure, but it's a different context than the European elections

because it's first past the post in the Westminster elections.

UKIP voters are spread right across the United Kingdom.

When you look at the percentages who voted for UKIP,

that was only 9% of the population.

That will reflect differently on the general election.

But who knows?

David Cameron has been in that constituency three times already.

Going back to the question I asked earlier,

do you think he has woken up too late to this threat?

They're a party who's ideology is similar to the Conservatives'.

Has he woken up too late to the threat?

No, I don't think so.

What the Conservative Party is doing is its best.

It's a new system, Grant Shapps is chairman,

he has organised things. David Cameron wants to be part of that.

Every one of us have been part of that.

I think our system has worked well

and it will be a shock if he doesn't win.

But we've seen UKIP coming in and people expect them to win

but I don't think people expect that now.

What would be a disappointing result for the party?

Losing the seat will be disappointing.

If he wins the seat...

You know it has been difficult for the Conservatives over the years

to win by-elections.

Glyn, we have to leave it there.

That's all for tonight, many thanks.

Thanks to all our guests and you at home for joining me.

We'll be back at the usual time of 9.30pm next Wednesday. Good night.