14/11/2015 Weather for the Week Ahead

Now that Abigail is moving away,

we're turning our attention to the weekend.

I will talk about the outlook in just a few minutes.

But rain is going to be a big feature,

a disruptive feature, this weekend,

because our next area of low pressure

contains the remnants of the tropical air from Hurricane Kate.

An ex-hurricane now but, nevertheless,

it's got a lot of warmth and moisture within that cloud system

which is developing into this really quite elongated area of low pressure

with a strong south-westerly wind.

When you've got tropical air,

it's got a good ability to contain an awful lot of water.

Rain is the real concern on this system.

As it comes in, it'll come across the cold air in Scotland,

giving some snow here over the hills.

It'll feel pretty chilly on Saturday

across many central, eastern and northern areas.

Eventually, we'll see a rise in temperature late in the day

as that south-westerly takes hold.

But, really, the temperatures

obviously making it feel quite miserable out there.

But the real story is the rain,

because once it arrives, it's with us through the weekend.

Uncertainty as to exactly how far north the heaviest rain will be

or, indeed, how far south.

But at the moment, it looks to have its sights set

on parts of north-west England, notably Cumbria,

across the Pennines as well, and north Wales.

These are peak values, 150 to 200 millimetres.

Many areas will get 50 to 100.

But clearly, that amount of rainfall

is going to have some far-reaching impacts.

Clearly, there'll be some flooding, quite significant flooding,

and also disruption to transport.

So, please do stay tuned to the forecast this weekend

if you live in those areas,

because as you can see, on Sunday as well,

it's still raining and blowing a gale.

That gale, or strong to gale-force wind,

blowing in yet more moist air

over the mountains of north Wales, Cumbria.

We mustn't forget that Northern Ireland,

parts of south-west Scotland, could be in the firing line

for some very wet weather, which could have flooding,

significant flooding, impacts as well,

hence the advice to stay tuned to the forecast.

That does eventually clear out of the way,

that low pressure whips itself up Sunday evening,

some severe gales in the north and then it clears away,

before we're looking out into the Atlantic for the next one.

Some rather wet and windy weather to start the day on Monday,

severe gales in the north, and later in the day, yet more rain,

back into the same sort of areas,

Northern Ireland, crossing the Irish Sea into north Wales,

into north-west England.

Temporarily, it'll feel a bit chilly again on Monday.

It's worth noting that through Saturday night and Sunday,

it will be very mild for the time of year.

But, as I say, that area of low pressure's moving out of the way

and we're seeing the next one coming in for Tuesday.

Tuesday looks as if it could once again be a very wet day,

and for areas where we'll have seen a lot of wet weather this weekend.

The concern this weekend is river levels are already high,

the ground's already saturated,

and we're coming up against the same problems on Tuesday.

Wednesday sees a ridge of high pressure for once,

so some drier, clearer weather for a time.

But, again, it doesn't last.

We've got the next band of rain,

this time pushing, we think, towards the north and the west.

That's because we're seeing more of a buckle, potentially,

in the jet stream.

After that one moves through on Thursday,

we start to see this buckle in the jet stream.

As it moves southwards, it allows us

to get onto the cold side of our jet stream,

into some colder air, some polar air, potentially, for a time.

So, it's possible that towards the end of the week next week,

we might have our first significant cold snap.

Temperatures actually a little bit below average, night-time frost,

and a real shock to the system.

Between now and then, particularly this weekend, huge concerns,

amber warnings out from the Met Office for some flooding.