28/12/2015 Weather for the Week Ahead

Hello. It does look a lot drier for the next couple of days over

the flooded areas across northern England, but there is

the potential for more stormy weather around the middle part of the week.

But certainly the next couple of days are largely dry

and staying on the mild side, and then, especially on Wednesday,

increased risk of some strong winds

but probably more importantly some persistent and heavy rain.

Now, the storm responsible for that is developing on Monday off the

western side of Canada, and it will be intensifying as it approaches.

But it's got a long way to travel,

hence why there'll always be some uncertainty for the next day or so.

For Monday, though, most places dry and fine,

the winds coming up from the south bringing mild air.

A weakening weather front will bring some patchy

rain across western fringes of Wales, south-west England,

and we'll see that rain pepping up a little

across the west of Northern Ireland late in the day.

Some showery rain in the west of Scotland,

but for most it's a dry, fine, bright day.

Quite breezy, blustery conditions, especially along the Moray Firth.

Temperatures, though, with southerly winds, well above the average.

That weak weather front continues to move across the UK on Monday night.

It does fizzle out a little bit, but there's that area of low pressure.

It's changing all the while,

becoming more of a storm as it approaches.

It's still not with us on Tuesday, just showery rain across Scotland.

Again, it looks largely dry across the flooded areas of northern

England, largely dry, too, in North Wales.

A scattering of showers across southern areas through the day,

but for many Tuesday's dry, bright with some sunshine.

Perhaps not quite as warm, but still these temperatures are above average.

It's been an incredibly mild December.

And then this storm system continues to get closer to the UK.

The low itself is tracking to the north.

Look at the number of isobars, though.

It is going to get very blustery indeed, gusts of 70mph are possible,

but the main cause for concern is this wiggling weather front.

Now, it's a few days away,

there's always uncertainty about the exact position of that front,

but there is the real threat of it becoming

slow-moving and dropping a lot of rain in a short space of time.

We have an amber "be prepared" weather warning for parts of southern

and south-west Scotland, but you can see heavy rain also in the areas,

potentially across northern England, North Wales, Northern Ireland,

so those areas continue to be at risk from flooding, too.

That weather front does finally get

a bit of a move on during Wednesday night.

And it is a cold front, so behind it we will see colder

air for Thursday, which is New Year's Eve.

Weather fronts will bring a few showers, but you will, I think,

notice that fresher feel, particularly in the evening

if you're heading out,

as temperatures could drop off quite sharply.

Thursday night is a bit of a mess, with lots of weather fronts around,

plenty of isobars,

and there's another weather system developing out west on Friday.

But between those two, there's a bit of a bump in the isobars,

a brief ridge, and so for many of us New Year's Day looks OK, dry and

fine, a good day to get out and walk off any excesses of the night before.

Some rain coming into the west later on, but temperatures actually,

well, it might actually feel like January, five to six degrees Celsius.

That low throws rain across the country on Saturday,

then another brief ridge.

It looks drier on Sunday, but there are more lows waiting in the

wings, so the outlook for the first part of 2016, it stays changeable.

There will be spells of rain but bright or sunny spells, too.

Overall, it stays on the mild side, but note the "probably".

There are still a few computer models that suggest we might start

to see something a little colder through those first few days of 2016.

All the weather warnings and flood warnings are online.

Vera Claythorne,

Thomas and Ethel Rogers,

Anthony Marston,

Lawrence Wargrave,

John MacArthur,

Emily Brent,

Edward Armstrong,

Philip Lombard,

William Blore...